What is krack alac in fellow Thermo nuclear a effort, I am Damn Valley
coming at you with part two of this week's mail back. Before we get
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let me know. Those are always good stories to share. Let's begin,
though, with the Julius Randall injury shams or the Knicks Basically, they announced
that Julius Randall sprain left ankle that he suffered in that loss in that win
excuse me against Miami on Wednesday night. He's going to be reevaluated in two
weeks. That puts him his reevaluation date at two days before the playoffs start,
and the Nicks should still avoid the plan. So they're going to They
would take a pretty massive collapse on their part to wind up in the play
in tournament, so they shouldn't have to worry about getting through the plane without
him. These reevaluation periods, though, we're weird because he's going to be
revaluated in two weeks, Does that mean he's just going to be ready to
play? Would he be playing right now if it were the playoffs rather than
just the final five games of the regular season. All fair questions. I've
seen speculation that some people think this is like a Grade two sprain, where
the normal absence is like bet two and four weeks, and four weeks would
be on the high end. You'd be looking at a first round series,
probably against Cleveland at this point, where you have to go without Julius Randall.
It's going to be tough, but I do think ultimately this winds up
being a blessing in disguise for Julius Randall specifically, is if the ankle injury
is not too too serious. I know his goal was to play in all
eighty two games this year, make call MBA whatever, just to get some
rest, just in advance of the playoffs. At that time off, I
think would be huge for him. You don't necessarily get too much time off
if you're coming back from an injury where you're not allowed to train. There
could be some rust for him to work through. But the Knicks, they
go a lot of one on one. They target a lot of mismatches on
offense. A fresh version of Julius Randall heading into a first round series against
what is No matter who you wind up facing, it's could to probably be
a pretty hilacious defense if it's Cleveland specifically, though, that's far from the
worst thing in the world. I also think this is an opportunity for self
discovery on New York's part. We saw them get not quirky, but experiment
a little bit down the stretch that Miami he game. You had Josh hart
and Asia Hartenstein closing within it was RJ. Barrett Manuel Quickly and John Brunson.
That's a lineup I think we would expect to see more. This is
also going to give the Knicks an opportunity to give Obie Toppin more minutes.
I know that we saw this year when Obie Toppin was out and I don't
think Josh Hart wasn't on the team, and I think Mitchell Robbins was injured.
At that point we saw some Jarret Wissins and Jerich will Sims and Hartenstein
played together. I don't think the Knicks will go that route again with the
dual bigs, just because they have the different level of players who are available
and outlook Josh Hart's and the Faulty has played some four and so I would
expect to see a lot of Josh Hart RJ Barrett front courts at this point.
The bigger concern it's not necessarily feeling those minutes. It's one or first
and foremost, it's the scoring and even the playmaking from Julius Randall. I
think you look at two things here. The nixt half court offense is going
to get in fury a lot worse. Their offense is in the twenty eight
percent file when Randall's off the court this season. It is however they are.
They've won those minutes because they've had on the back of a stronger defensive
performance. The other thing is is that Jalen Brunson and he have logged.
Jalen Brunson has not logged too many minutes without Julius Randall. But the Knicks
offense is still pretty good because I mean, Jalen Brunson has been one of
the best one on one scores in basketball this year five hundred and fifty possessions
without Julius Randall Brunson has played. The knicks offensive ratings during that stretch is
one twenty three point five that ranks in the ninety ninth ninety seventh percentile.
Excuse me, so you know that you can still at least generate efficient offense.
I think what it takes if we're looking at a playoff setting, you
want to have the ability to push the pace. And if you go and
you look at some of that data, the Knicks are going to run more
when Julius Randall's off the court, after they get a rebound, after they
forced a turnover. I think that you need to maybe emphasize that even more
if you have Josh Harden Manuel Quickly in the game at the same time,
even with Jalen Brunson, rather than trying to slow things down target mismatches.
I do think this is an opportunity for RJ. Barrett to stand out.
But even with the leap that Manuel Quickly has made, it becomes tough to
run the Knick's offense in the vein that it normally runs. I don't you
don't want any of those guys. I think going mismatch hunting or going one
on one is often I think Manuel Quickly is just the better player at this
point, and his stop on a dime floaters and just ability to change directions
when he's off the dribble, I mean even having a pull up jumper in
general makes him probably more valuable in the situation. But Barrett's size and strength
and ability to get all the way to the basket could make him just as
valuable, if not more so, in those types of situations. I just
don't think you want to find yourself leaning on them as much. You can
certainly lean on Jail and Runs and more to that because he's been so efficient
in those situations. But I think you want to look at trying to push
the pace, especially off of defensive rebounds, and that helps with I mentioned
quickly if during the minutes that top And is going to play. But I
do think that it will be a valuable opportunity to sort of see, Okay,
well can we get by playing smaller for longer stretches with the Heart and
Barrett front court. Let's say next to a big whether it's Hartenstein or Mitchell
Robinson, you also get to see what can Obi Toppin do for you?
Is he going to be nailing those corner threes at a higher clip or can
you maybe use him as a screen or more because Julius Randall is so important
that Knicks offense as a screen, or especially when John Brunson has the ball,
who comes and steps in and fills that role. Yes, the big
Heartenstein Mitchell Robinson will do more of that, but can you get away with
that? Can Josh Hart do more of that? R J. Barrett do
more of that? Or like I said, topping since he plays essentially the
same position. And so I think this winds up being valuable just the Knicks
having to test some different lineup combinations. It doesn't mean that they're going to
change their entire ethos once Julie's Randall comes back and just as they enter the
playoffs. But I think it's good to just have that information of your of
your own team, where you know, you look at it and you say,
Okay, Julius Randall's gonna play forty minutes a night in the playoffs.
What can we do during these other eight minutes that maybe we hadn't tried before
during the regular season. We tried it towards the talent and it started to
work. That's valuable information, and it can be instructive and inform just how
you're going to go about matching up with teams and we'll say the Cavaliers hypothetically
in the first round. It's a bummer overall, though, because the evaluation
period doesn't guarantee that he's going to be back in time for the start of
the first round. The way that the Knicks are run and the way that
Julius Randall just is as a player, I might bet on him. Unless
they are unless this is more serious than is being reported, I might bet
on it a little bit. I would bet is what I'm saying, that
he'll be back in time for the playoffs, again though we don't have all
necessarily the information just yet, and the fact that he's missing two weeks at
all, knowing how the Knicks are run, knowing how badly Julius Randall wanted
to play in all eighty two games, knowing how badly he wanted to make
All MBA, I don't think this impact is All MBA case. By the
way, I'm not even sure if he would have ended up making it team.
But relative to some of these other guys, especially at the forwards and
how many minutes they've played Durant lebron Kauai, I don't think Julius Randall's in
jeopardy of losing any All MBA grounds. He's certainly not going to tumble,
you know, five spots down the ladder because of this absence if he if
he was on your All NBA team, I don't think this absence changes that
if he wasn't on your All NBA team. Of course, this certainly isn't
going to change that one of your All NBA teams, I should say,
and so, but when I do frame this is a blessing in disguise,
I think ultimately it's just the Knicks being able to dig a little bit deeper
and find out more about their roster independent of Julius Randall, which is,
you know, that's something you need to know and even you can apply it
to when Julius Randall is playing, just to look at these different you know,
maybe are they more inclined if the RJ. Barrett Josh hartfront court works
out really well, or then krying to maybe even try play that with Julius
Randall at the five more like they could try closing like that, or they
you know, going up against certain matchups, I will say if you're looking
at Cleveland specifically that smaller front court, like, let's see Julius Randall is
available, but even you're just trying to look at surviving minutes when maybe he's
not on the floor. I guess it's one thing if you're going up against
Mobli or Alan, neither of them are just like super girthy or brawny or
huge. But if you're gonna go up against clean team that's playing those two
based at the same time and you don't have Julius Randall, and then you're
left playing smaller with Robinson and then you know Heart and RJ. Barrett,
let's say as your four years three respectively, that could be that could be
super tough. But I do think overall that this is going to be a
good stretch for the Knicks to really test some things out. Maybe get it's
Deuce McBride probably gets more run as well, and so you can test out
smaller units that way, and it'll give you a better feel for things that
you can do defensively in those situations, which is an aspect of the game
where the Knicks have run hot and cold there and they've they've lagged at points.
They've been a better defensive team in some of the lineups with Julius Randall
off the court, and so maybe you can stand to be more aggressive there,
force more turnovers, get out in transition. So I'm interest see what
it looks like. I wouldn't be too worried if I'm anna expand right now,
Like I said, Julie, Trando getting the rest, far from the
worst thing in the world, just something to monitor because who knows whether he
comes back. I think ultimately, even if they don't have him, this
feels like a team that can survive, not be better without Julius Rando,
but a team that is deep enough to survive. And the players that I
think I'm watching the most might be watching Tom Thibodau the most, just to
see what he does in this instance, and I know the natural inclination would
be to watch what we top in the most. We assume he's going to
get more run, and even a really close eye probably on RJ. Barrett,
just to see if his offensive role changes at all, or if he's
able to take advantage of an opportunity where the Knicks half court offense needs more
on ball creation from him. And I think you could throw Manual Quickly in
there too. Those are just two players that I'm sort of locked in on
and overall stylistically, yeah, I want to see how Tom Thibota's gonna run
his rotations. I want to see if the Knicks are going to focus on
pushing the ball more, which is not necessarily there their modus operande, especially
if when they have their best players in the court without Julie's rando, they're
a little bit faster. I think they ultimately be fine, though, here's
hoping he gets This team has been fun, so here's hoping he just gets
gets well. So you're not wishing for anyone to be injured. This was
just very very ill timed. Before we dig into part two of the mailbag
we have, I'm going to add one more question someone was I had one
straggler that I didn't cover, and it comes from uh Peto in discord between
those teams that actually have a chance of drafting him, which one would take
the smallest leap forward if they got Victor wemban Yama on the roster. That's
a you know, that's a fascinating question, and I think, so you
can you can go take this one of two ways, and it's is there
just a team you don't believe in and so you think Victor Weibanyama comes in
and it's not just that they don't have a lot of talent, but you
don't trust them to develop Victor wemban Yama. Or is it just you think
it's a team that's so far away from competing, maybe not even trying.
You're not going to see this material impact in in how they're playing. And
so I think the two teams that stay out here want Houston Springs to mind,
they have like a lot of mishmashy talent, and I guess they could
end add James Harden over the summer or at least talent over the summer with
all their cap space. That's why I'm reticent to pick them. But you
have Alprin Shangoon and then Jabari Smith Junior with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.
You throw Victor Weiben Yama into the mix, just feels like it gets
weird in terms of an offensive hierarchy and then how you're going to look to
defend and who's getting a line share of the minutes, specifically on your front
line. Another team thought that, I think we just wouldn't see the difference
because I don't think they're on the timeline to really try and leave a dent
in how they're playing. Might be the Spurs. I trust the hell out
of Devin Bassell and Jeremy Swan. I think is going to be a stud.
He might be on my All Rookie first team. By the way,
for anyone who who cares. Kelvin Johnson good too. We'll see if they
bring back Trey Jones next season. He's going to be a free agent.
They shure there's talent on this roster, it's just they're so early into the
rebuild that if you got three three one Binyama, how much he's gonna need
a learning curve. He's so long, spind leaf, fin railpin. It's
gonna take him, I would imagine time to get acclimated to the NBA,
and so you can't just assume that he's going to be a megastar upon arriving.
I thought about Charlotte a little bit too. But if they're gonna have
a mellow and you bring back PJ. Washington and like they're not a team
at least if they're going to still be controlled by Michael Jordan, that's since
really gonna look to tear things down and start anew. If you have Hayward
and Rosier, there's sort of enough veteran talent on the roster to where,
okay, if you have one Binyama, he kind of makes a huge difference.
Or does it not make a huge difference, because maybe they'll bring him
along more slowly since they have veterans in front of him, and that might
be the other way to look at this where it's like in my head,
I'm I'm just saying, oh, if he lands with the Pacers, to
imagine how good they're gonna be with Miles Turner and Wemby and Haliburton and Benned
mcmathron the Pacers have. You know, they've played Ben McMath in a bunch,
but they haven't really like super unleashed him just yet. What are they
gonna do with victimber Yama in that situation? And it could be ditto for
the Orlando Magic. They have Pala men Caro and Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter
Junior upfront to monitor and if he still believe and healthy Jonathan Isaac, should
he ever be able to stay healthy and available, does it get crowded and
you see his minutes that they're so low, then his impact but comes negligible.
And so there's a ton of different ways to look at this question.
I ultimately think I'm not gonna pick Houston just because I think they're gonna have
cap space and do stuff with it, and even if you don't believe in
the roster, they'll probably just been enough talent assembled there. I'm gonna go
with San Antonio just because they're still so far away that Yes, the fully
actualized version of Victor Weimiyama makes a huge difference and push them on the right
track. It's just gonna take you while to get that fully actualized version of
Victor Weman Yam And so if you get him, you're still going to be
at a disadvantage when you look at the point of attack creation. It's okay,
you're gonna lean on him and so in and Devin Vessel and if you
bring Tray Jones back and Kelton Johnson. Those are not necessarily the perfect players
to do that. So the Spurs are my pick. I recognize that could
be wrong. It might be it might be safer to go the opposite route
though that I was lining up for. So it's a great question, Pete,
but I think you could go though, Okay, Charlotte isn't going to
play him as much, or maybe Indiana wouldn't play him as much even I
mean, Utah would play him a ton if they win him, if they
got him. Oklahoma City would play him a ton if they wind up in
the lottery and get him. So I'm sticking with the Spurs just because of
how far away they are. And I didn't mention the Pistons here, which
is the team with the worst record in the NBA at this point. And
has technicly the best well since the Flatten lottery odds, they have among the
best chances of getting him. With Kade and Jay and Ivy. I've been
Jalen durn there, James Wiseman too, if you want to throw him as
part of their court, he would make a huge difference. And so they
have sort of this They're young, but there's a lot of guys. I
look at what I just fully believe in. Kade not healthy at the moment,
we know that, and I know that he's not the most efficient player
you watch him. I just believe in him and that he's more polished than
some of his numbers suggest. You look at just sort of a year two
leap or progress from Jail and Durhan and Jade and Ivy. I could just
see that being a team that becomes really good with Victor Wieman Yama. So
I'm sticking with the Spurs as a cop out because it feels like they are
so far away and that they're not going to try to accelerate their process by
bringing in other talent to compliment Victor Wembanyama. If they get Victor Wembanyama not
right out of the gate at least that'll close on my intro to the part
two of the mailbag, which will begin right fucking now. Let's get to
this question from kill Hoss, and it's related to the playoffs. We're coming
off a season with epic scoring or epic lack of defense. What do you
expect from the upcoming playoffs more of the same from the season or will they
be more similar to pass playoffs? So what's interesting here, and this is
just I went back three years. The average offensive rating in two twenty this
is all outside garbage time from cleanland glass. The regular season one ten point
eight. The offensive rating on average was actually higher in the playoffs. It
went up to one hundred and eleven point eight. In two twenty two twenty
one, one hundred and twelve point eight was the average regular season offensive rating.
It went up to one fourteen point seven in the playoffs. Last year
the average offensive rating was one twelve point three, and it dropped to one
twelve in the playoffs. And this is kind of to say that there's never
been I guess, with the exception of two twenty and two thousand and twenty
one, the past couple of years doesn't seem like there's been any huge discrepancy
between what we're seeing in the regular season and the playoffs. But this year's
average offensive rating being one fifteen point one like that is that is substantially high.
It makes me wonder, Okay, are we going to see that hold
up once we get to the playoffs? And I think the fact that so
many of the critical playoff teams, when you look at Sacramento or Memphis,
that they want to play fast and not really use a lot of clock on
that even if they're operating in the the half court. Okay, see if
they are going to be a team that makes the playoffs Golden state of course,
maybe Atlanta. Does that lead me to believe that, okay, maybe
this offensive uptick will hold. But I'm also just wondering the most important players
are going to be more available once we get to the playoffs that may have
been in the regular season, and so does that inherently drive down this offensive
debtonation explosion that we've seen this year? So, if I had to,
if I would frame it this way, when we get to the playoffs,
but I expect the offensive rating average offensive rating to drop or increased, I
think I would expect it to drop. I just feel like with teams having
more time to adjust to the same opponent, not just having more rest,
because games are more spaced out in the regular season than they've ever been before
for the most part, but you're gonna have time in between every single game,
and you're gonna be game planning for the same opponent, and we're not
going to be, in theory dealing with as many absences. There will be
injuries at you know, Kevin Durant, just as example, returns on Wednesday,
but wouldn't have missed those ten games with Phoenix if it was the playoffs,
he would have been playing through them. How effective he been that would
have been, That's a fair question to ask, But I just we're not
again, unless they're serious injuries, We're going to have more of the star
players on the court for more of the minutes of the game, and so
you would expect that number to come down in the defense to get better.
But I do again think even when looking at how much Milwaukee likes to get
out in transition, Memphis as well, Sacramento, those are things in theory
that teams can take away. But if you're able to play at your cadence
and get into transition, if you're a transition reliant team that goes a really
long way towards ensuring that there won't be an offensive drop off, as does
sort of super tough shot making when you're looking at Okay, look at what
Donovan Mitchell can do against slow down defenses, or the same thing against Kawhi
Leonard where he doesn't have to have them in rotation. They can just hit
ridiculously contested jumpers that Luca donch which is there too, Steph Curry. I
mean, the list goes on there, and it feels like we have more
those players than ever, and so I couldn't fury see myself being wrong.
I just don't think I would expect the offensive eruption to the degree that we've
seen it this year, where it just feels like, oh, another game,
the over on the combined score cleared two fifty, No big deal.
I just I can't fathom that becoming such a normal for the postseason. But
I also didn't go back and say, well, how regular would that have
been for last season. Next question also comes from Muckle. I'm trying to
catch up on questions that I missed last time. Who this question is This
question is gonna be tough as the playoff picture comes into focus, what teams
can be considered winners and losers of the season. For examples, Kings are
likely a winner regardless of their playoff outcome, Blazers and Bulls likely to losers.
Some teams will be TVD based on playoff outcome Seventy six Ers, Nuggets
for examples. So yeah, I would leave off the teams like the There's
gonna be so much that we have to determine about even the Clippers, the
Sixers, the Nuggets, as you mentioned, Yeah, they've been in top
of the West all year, but if you bow out et lest so those
are TVD. The Kings are a clear winner here, So that's a good
one, a clear looking at clear winners. The Bulls are interesting because they've
come on a little bit since the All Star break, but they're still in
ten. I think Atlanta as a clear loser here, just to regardless of
where they finish, it's a long shot that they'll avoid like be able to
get to six and avoid the plan. And that's not after making the Jante
Murray trade. I think the cost has been hyperbolized when you look at how
much they gave up. It wasn't this Rudy Gobert, not a Mitchell type,
Paul. But you also don't make that deal with the intention of being
the eighth best team in the East End to be the eight best teams.
If you just trade Awake Kevin Herder to help with your wiggle room under the
tax, that's just a terrible look. So they're definitely a loser. I
think the Raptors are still a loser of this season because of how good they
were supposed to be and now they put them in a situation where they're going
to enter an off season where Yaka Peardle, Fred VanVleet, and Gary Trent
Junior are probably all free agents. GTJ and FEV have player options, and
Yaka Pearle's just hitting the open market, so you're gonna have to pay all
three of those guys. And then you have to start thinking about Oganna Nobi's
next contract. He's extension eligible, Pascal Siaka will be extension eligible. You're
the point where you really precious at you by the way, it's extension eliable.
After this season has not had a great year, you start really reinvesting
in a core that was underwhelming, and so Atlanta Toronto stand out to me.
The Bulls didn't do anything to short circuit their long term future. This
seasons of disappointment, especially if you wanted them to sort of pivot at the
trade deadline. I don't know if they're I think there's losers, but they're
not. I think the Raptors Lahawks might be bigger losers relative to expectations.
The Wizards are just losers because they're gonna they're the Wizards. They're gonna finish
in eleventh or twelfth place and then pay kp and Kuzma a bunch of money
to just do the same thing all over again next season. I think the
Hornet are just straight up losers because they don't have a direction. They are
going to get a very high draft pick, though, and so you pair
a high draft pick with LaMelo, Mark Williams PJ. Washington if you pay
him, I just feel like they need to kind of still strip it down
and like to the studs and be like, hey, we have LaMelo Mark
Williams the side draft pick, and that's the route we'll go. So I
think lose losers there. I don't think our expectations were high enough for them
to be mega losers elsewhere losers in the West, just concrete losers. I
guess you could say the Timber the Mavericks are certainly a loser at this point.
They're eleventh, like they wouldn't even make the play in if the season
ended today, and the Blazers, as Muchael mentioned, those are two teams
that's tend out to me as losers, and I think that's it. The
Golden State as long as they avoid the play in, I guess if you
want to call them a loser, that's fine. They don't have Wiggins right
now and they're still on pace to avoid the play in. And even with
the Clippers, those are teams where it's like, oh, let's see what
happens in the playoffs, because they're gonna play well if they're at full strength,
or if they just put together a stretch that they're a title contender of
winners. I would say that the Oklahoma City just putting themselves on the radar
like this, where hey, they're hovering around five hundred. Even if they
don't make the play in, it's just been established that, Wow, Jamen
Williams is really good. Jay Golds Alexander's an MVP candidate. Josh Giddy's really
coming along. This is a team gonna have Chet Homegren next year, cap
space this year. They will be forced to be reckoned with immediately. They're
a winner. As Minnesota a loser, I can't. I don't know with
them, they've fallen in between. There an East winner, I'd probably just
say it has to be the Calves. I mean, you could even argue
the Heat or losers just because they might finish in play in territory after making
the conference finals last year. That's a tough look, so we could be
heavy on potential losers. I think some of it's TBD though when you look
at Atlanta on Toronto, it's okay. There are teams that they're in the
play in like Miami, but they don't have a path to just being like,
oh, they won two playoff series and they're in the conference finals.
You could see the Heat doing that. The winner in the East I think
has to be the Cavaliers here. They're not dealing with any sort of messiness.
I mean, I guess the Bucks like they're just clear winners because you've
missed Chris Middleton for a good portion of the season. Drew Holiday missed some
time as well. You didn't trade for Jay Crowder until right at the trade
deadline, but you still found a way to get him. You're taking pictures
with your legs crossed as a team, looking absolutely hysterical, and you just
have the best record in the NBA despite all this. Brook Lopez is a
defensive Player of the Year candidate. Johannis is the top three MVP candidate.
You've gotten really good seasons overall. I think from Grayson Allen and Javonne Carter,
Bobby Portis before his injury, he's back in the line, and now
before Zenry was a six minute a year candidate. Definitely the biggest winners.
I think that foules with the Calves though, just to be playing for they're
going to have a home court advantage, playoff spot, and that's in year
one of Donovan Mitchell. You've gotten this absurd offensive growth from Evan Mobley,
Darius Garland. You know, speaking of all NBA stuff, I might have
two Cleveland guards on my All NBA team. So I feel like Darius Garland
season has really flown under the radar. If he was just a little bit
less chaotic, it came to he has that really nice in between touch,
but he just has these weird takeoff and angular points around the basket. He
was just a more consistent finisher around the ram, he'd probably be in an
All NBA lock for me, definitely Cleveland as a as another big winner of
this season so far with without without question this question, Oh man, this
one is such a brutal question. I tried to think of it for as
long as possible, but I know I'm gonna hate myself with the answer,
Christopher, as you have to erase one of these players contributions to the league,
MJ, Kobe or Lebron? Who are you racing from MBA history.
We had a lot of discord responses to this, and Lebron was the consensus
answer where it's where okay, Like, I don't think he's viewed on the
same iconic level as a Kobe or an MJ. Part of that, though,
is those two. Kobe's not here anymore, MJ's not playing anymore.
So the lore has had and the mystique has had an opportunity opportunity to build
up. But also with Lebron because he made it to like a jillion straight
NBA finals, Eastern Conference Finals, you would be changing so much about that
conference by getting rid of him. I would counter it by saying, Lebron
never seemed to derail what could have been all time teams like he definitely the
Calves beat the Warriors, but I'm saying on a consistent basis, he didn't
stop that dynasty from happening. I would almost be mere curious to see what
happens if from a perspective, not of a not of a value proposition of
saying, oh, this doesn't matter, but of a curiosity as to what
the league would have looked like if you got rid of Michael Jordan and so
those two, you know, those those six championships. What does like what
teams stepped up like? Is it just the like? What what does that
mean for teams like the Jazz who lost them in the NBA finals, or
just what does it mean to teams that ran into them constantly in the playoffs,
the Knicks, the Pistons, the Calves. It feels like a lot
more franchises would how historical retrospectives retrospectives that look a lot different at that point,
And so I think I would go MJ here just from the sheer curiosity
standpoint, not not as a I don't appreciate what he did for the league
standpoint, but that's a that's almost a mean question, Christopher. I do
appreciate you asking it, though, I think it was a good one overall.
Next question from Illuminaco after Jalon Brown made comments that can be understood as
noncommittal to Boston. Can you see him in a place like Orlando? Can
he commit to an extension as part of any trade deal? And what assets
would it take to acquire him? Hypothetically speaking, I thought these comments were
sort of they were read too much into what Dalen Brown said. I just
I found them ambiguous. But it's like, Okay, it makes sense for
him to enter free agency in twenty twenty four. At this point, people
are wondering why he wouldn't sign an extension with Boston. There might still be
something there just because of the he did mention. Okay, I know Jayson
Tatum was working out with Kevin Durant and all a sudden, Kevin Grant requests
a trade and so that made him think. But to get into the finances
of this, so let's start with the extension. Can he commit to an
extension is part of any trade deal. He can technically sign an extension,
but he can't be super max eligible for anyone but the Celtics, and he
will be supermacs eligible if he makes an All NBA team this year or next
year, which would allow him to sign an extension for a starting salary that's
thirty five percent of the salary cap per extension rules. Right now, he
can only get one hundred and twenty percent raise off the final year of his
contract. That would allow him to sign an extension for thirty six point eight
million dollars. His max salary if he just goes into into free agency twenty
twenty four is over forty two millions. That's a difference. We're talking about
five and a half six million dollars right there, and those projections could change
if the salary cap changes, so it just makes financial sense for him to
go into free agents. Now. There has been talk of extension rules changing
in the CBA where they could allow players to get one hundred and fifty percent
raises. One hundred and fifty percent raise would get Jalon Brown to his projected
max right now. What becomes interesting about his future in Boston is if those
rules go into effect, or if he makes an All NBA team, becomes
super Max eligible and then doesn't sign an extension, because that's when it would
make financial sense for him to do. So, that's when I think that
we could start talking about him as a trade candidate where Boston can't risk losing
him for nothing so they have to take offers. Or maybe he just asked
for out and does the whole pre agency amble as a team might go.
There's not a team. I mean, look a Luminajo. Name a team,
and I think Jalon Brown would probably be a good fit there. Orlando
would be super interesting having him, Franz Wagner and Paula ban Carroll. If
you can keep that base core together, I don't know that you would have
to. You might have to trade one of them to get Jalon Brown,
though maybe if frowns Wagner there. I also love Memphis for him. The
King's would be great. I just don't know if they have the equity to
get him. You're looking at Key and Murray and all your future draft equity.
I don't really know if that's enough there. The Knicks could be a
good candidate just because they have so many picks, and I think if you're
Boston, because you're still trying to keep your window open with Jayson Tatum,
I doubt you're gonna regress into a full on rebuild. If you're moving Jalen
Brown, even though he is your second best player, you're looking for probably
a return that's on par with what the Jazz got for I guess for Dodder
Mitchell or Rudy Gobert, but it's really more of the Donovan Mitchell trade.
I don't think you get as much, but you want picks and then impact
players, and so you want to get your lowry market in an addition to
how much first round equity you could get. Could you get that from the
Knicks because they have RJ, Barrett Emmanuel quickly plus first rounders? Are you
willing to do business with someone in the same conference slash division? That's something
to ask the Pelicans. They certainly have the draft equity and even some of
the players where it's you know you're not trained Brandon Ingram for Jilen Brown.
You probably want to pay those two together. But you have picks and Sej
McCullum is someone who could help the Celtics if Portland just decides to get younger
or they want to build something around Damon. Does Portland think about that?
And can you get also draft equity out of that? And so it's the
thing you want A not a that'd be a weird trade because Damian lords a
better player than Jaylen Brown, but he's more expensive and older. My point
would be, you want an impact player right now who doesn't who's probably worse
than Jaylen Brown. It'd be angry, but he helps you now in addition
to draft equity that you can then flip or try and groom and develop later
on. And so I think that's what you're looking for. Teams that could
satisfy that the best. I would say New Orleans, the Knicks, the
Grizzlies, Orlando could technically do it. I just don't know if if they
would want to, but Orlando could certainly be in that mix. I love
to see him in Okay, see if you had to keep Shay Homegrin,
do you get to keep John Williams is part of that deal. I think
thunder Ends will romanticize this and say we don't want Jayleen, We're gonna we
don't want Jayon Brown. We want to keep Joyn Williams put SGA Chad home
Grand Jayon Brown. Wow, that's another team that could satisfy it. There's
so many teams that I think are like perfect fits for Jaalen Brown. I
don't know what roster he would actually be a bad fit for at this point.
There are teams that would be interested in them that clearly don't have the
assets. Could Brooklyn get involved with the additional first round equity they have while
not getting rid of Mchael Bridges, I don't know. I don't think their
team that could be competitive. Atlanta has been mentioned, but you're building stuff
around You're limited and somewhat limited in your draft equity because of the picks you
out of San Antonio. So you but you have draft equity and DeAndre Hunter
and you could go and yet congove want there's other there's other moves you can
make. I just don't think they would have the most attractive package for Jayon
Brown. The Pacers don't really satisfy the unless Boston loves Ben Nick Math and
they don't have the current player juice. But they just throw their entire draft
picks dash at Boston and we're able to get Jayon Brown Jayon Brown, Miles
Turner, and Tyr's Haliburton. Oh man, that would be something that I
would love to see there. Any other teams didn't really say Memphis in the
West. I'd like to see him on Sacramento. I just don't see that
they have. I don't really want to see him leave Boston, but a
Sacramento not sure if they have the Jews. Memphis I already said they would
definitely have the asset juice the Pelicans and the Thunder for sure. The Mavericks
don't have the asset juice to get him, but they certainly could use him.
Him in Utah would be excellent. Now you would, I think if
you're trading for Jaylen Brown, you're gonna angle to keep Kessler and Marketing in
and then you're willing to trade anyone that's like other than those three. But
you would have other than Marketing in Kessler. Excuse me, but you would
have enough draft equity because you own so much of Cleveland and Minnesota's draft that
maybe you entice the Celtics into making more of a future driven trade and they're
really only getting back. Oh we're you know, we're only getting back Colin
Sexton as the player context and that BAGI is the players centerpieces in this deal.
But that's okay because we got eight draft picks. I'm just I'm hyperbolizing
there, but will be about to go. I just don't know that they
have the immediate player juice to get a deal done. And I think that
will be the challenge if you're looking to trade with Boston should it ever get
to that point on the Jail and Brown front, is they're not just going
to want draft equally either. They're going to want at least one immediately impactful
player, and that windows down the trade field where it's even is Golden State
sawn more enticing if they're willing to put distant first on the table in addition
to an addition to Jordan Pool. Does that get Boston thinking if it's not
Jordan Pool, would they do you throw Andrew Wiggins on the table In that
scenario, some people might argue that's the lateral move. I think Jaylon Brown
is substantially better then Andrew Wiggins. So yeah, those are those would all
be teams that would keep an eye on the Clippers, the Lakers, They're
not going to be able to get involved. Milwaukee would be incredibly fun,
but they're not even gonna have the assets to get involved there. San Antonio
just feels too early on and again san Antonio even Houston, like if they
were willing to put Jabari Smith Junior on the table or this year's pick.
I guess maybe they could get involved, but they just don't have enough proven
talent to satisfy that part of the requirement for Boston addition to the draft equity.
This question is we have two more questions. This went way longer than
I wanted it to, but let's pump this out. Austin sent me this
a while ago, and I promised him that I would do some research on
it. But he asked about the NBA's revenue sharing what Warden reported that twenty
NBA teams received payment in the league's revenue sharing plan for last year. Last
season, the Pacers got the largest share at forty two point two million.
He wanted to know, do the Pacers have the worst ticket sales? Just
cheaper tickets? Shit TV deal? And I want to say, I don't
know how to phrase this, that I shouldn't say. I did my own
research because I researched when other people had written about the topic, but essentially
Austin what Austin says, it boils down to just everything. So teams are
this plan. It came into effect I think around two eleven or twelve,
like in the during like after the lockout, I believe, and I think
this is still the nucleus of the plan. All teams contribute an annually fixed
percentage, which is and it's roughly fifty percent of their total total annual revenue.
This includes everything, however, it's minus certain expenses such as arena operating
costs, the operating costs of cost to Celtic that are incumbent of selling tickets.
So you get to it's essentially like write offs that you could figure out
there. What happens is, though, is they all pool fifty percent of
what is their eligible revenue into this pool, and some of that's going to
be lower for certain teams. The example this came from the Business Journal.
For example, one high revenue team could contribute fifty percent of its total revenue
minus certain expenses, for a total of seventy million dollars going into a pool.
A low revenue team could contribute total revenue of forty five million after allocating
to both teams the average team payroll of fifty eight million. The low revenue
team would receive thirteen million dollars in revenue sharing to make up for the difference
between its pooled revenue from the league's average payroll. That's really a mouthful,
but what it ostensibly amounts to is fifty percent of what the Pacers are making
is going to be less than fifty percent of the basketball revenue from the Lakers.
And the reason it gets there, I think a lot of it has
to do with you know, I don't think that arena stuff is gonna impact
it that much. The tickets could be a lot cheaper that I don't doubt
if you look at the average price of tickets for games to the Pacers.
Also, I don't believe that the I know the Pacers don't have a lucrative
local TV deal relative to what the Lakers would have, but I don't think
that teams have to put their TV deals into this pool of money and so
this basketball I might be wrong there, but I tried to find this out.
But their total annual revenue that's thrown into this pool doesn't actually factor in
their TV deal. They could have cheaper tickets, they are this season as
an example, they are the second lowest in terms of the percentage of the
arena that's sold out each game. But it's just like, what's the difference
between having ninety point four percent of your arena sold out versus ninety seven on
average? And it's the real difference there. It's not necessarily that percentage.
It's well, how much are you actually making per tickets? So that would
go into it. And I think when you're talking about memorabilia, if you
don't have like marquee stars that are generating national interest as much as the Lakers
with Lebron James from one, or you just don't have as much exposure on
national TV, it gives you fewer ways to create revenue. But I would
probably just think that the profit margin in a market like Indiana is probably just
not going to be as lucrative as it is in some bigger markets. I
hope that answers your question for the most part, But digging into it,
the reading was fascinating there it's I think the answer is also just in the
look at the teams that got the largest share from the revenue sharing, or
look at the teams that contributed the most that past season. The Warriors,
followed by the Lakers, the Knicks, the Celtics, and the Bolts like
those are all the flagship markets in the league when you're looking at that,
and so that definitely has to factor in all these economical circumstances. And if
I had to guess the biggest one, I don't know what the biggest driving
force would be to the total revenue. I just think cheaper prices overall,
rather than anything to do with attendance or or the size of your fan base.
I just think the cost of accessibility. It is so much higher in
all these other markets for these other teams, whereas Indie by extension, they're
just going to be more accessible based off that market. Our final question here
will come from Leland Hey. Dan wanted to float an idea if Dallas goes
up in Flames. First, what do you think of Kyrie with the Orlando
Magic. A lot of things that are ideal for him, on a roster
that could use him and compliment him and his weaknesses on the court, and
a state with in a state that's sees a lot of the things that he
does. Okay, the big issue is would the Magic actually be interested and
second might never come. Well, let's tackle this question first. What about
Kyrie and Orlando. I think he could work, I don't think they want
to. He's still one of those on ball centric players. I don't know
that they necessarily want that in the player they're looking for. Between having friends
Wagner, Marquel Folds, Pala men Caro, even colamp me there, Wendel
Carter Junior running stuff for him, it feels like they would want a more
egalitarian floor general, and that would be someone like Fred van Fleet. They
wouldn't get caught up in a chase for James Harden or Kyrie Irving. It's
why I thought they'd be a good trade destination for Trey Young if he ever
got on the block. I don't know if they're looking to play that way
though, so I think in fury, when you look at what the Magic
do best, especially how especially how good they've been defensively for a good chunk
of this year, Kyrie makes a lot of sense because of all he brings
to the offense. But I also don't know that he's someone who would augment
the development of their youngsters, where you could clearly say that Fred van Fleet
he gives them a boost because of his spacing, but also because he's not
cannibalizing touches that they could use to get more experience and diversify not just their
offense but the entire ecosystems offense. And so if Kyrie's going somewhere, my
guests would be that it's just a team that needs maybe a contender already in
place and has already committed to this heliocentric model where where they want multiple stars,
where they're not trying to build something, not necessarily from the ground up,
but they're not trying to build something or or nurture it over as longer
a term as as an actual rebuilding team. And that would you know,
that's why the Lakers are going to come up if there's actually a team,
you know, a team like that's why Dallas would trade for Kyrie in the
first place, and why Orlando wouldn't necessarily get involved there. So the fit
in fury what he would bring on offense be super intriguing. I just don't
think it's something the Magic would look at so fitwise, I think it's iffy,
but it would make some sense in terms of interest. I don't know
if Kyrie would be interested in playing for the Magic or living in Florida.
I do not think the Magic would be interested, though. I think that's
someone they would stay away from. Leland also asked a second. It might
never come to it, but if Luca asked for a trade soon, are
the thunder best position to trade for him? If he doesn't demand a trade
to a particular market with assets like say your knicks, that's a great question
the team irrespective of market, that would be best. I can't even fathom
what a Luca don Che's trade package would look like at this point. Holy
shit, even this is a tough answer. The thunder by virtue of having
all their draft picks, sure, but you have to look at how feign
are they going for them. I guess they do have somewhat palatable matching salary,
but if you're not trading Shay, and I think the whole point would
be, let's pair of these two together or what I mean? Lucas considered
just this top five guy, but I'm not giving a top ten, top
twelve guy right now, and Shay for Luca. You want to pair those
two together, so you're looking at you would have to give up lu dort
Chet home Grin probably Josh Giddy. In this scenario, Jellen Williams, you
would give up most of those guys. If not, I'm not gonna say
all of them. You give up most of them and then picks they might
be best equipped to get Luca. I think they or the Pelicans, those
would be the teams. We're just looking at the assets they can offer in
the value of them, I think they would be the teams that are best
positioned to trade for Luca. Are they also the teams that would be most
aggressive for Luca even if he doesn't have a preferred list of destinations. I
don't know, just because look, he has after this year, he has
three years left of this contract. Before that player option he could hit free
agency. So that's a lot of time to where you don't necessarily have to
care about that. But it would just be very atypical for teams like the
Pelicans or the Okay See to go that. I would love to see Luca
on either one of those teams. I think I'd be more intrigued by I'm
the thunder two fun at this point. I might be more intrigued by seeing
Zion and Luca played together. I don't know. What that defense looks like.
Either team would work. Memphis could be a team that has enough it
might actually be willing to go all in. The Knicks, of course,
as Leland mentioned, or are on that is it a short list, it'd
be a long list of Luca donch as trade suitors. But if teams that
could feasibly pay the price tech to get him, unless he's dictating where he
goes, which in this day and age, he'll probably have a say in
that those might be the Those might be the teams when you're trying to balance
do they have the assets and would they actually be willing to go after him?
Memphis is one the Knicks or another the Pelicans and the Thunder, And
I just I'd be reticent to even believe that the Thunder would commit to going
after him. But I guess you could make a case that Orlando has enough.
A lot of these teams all of a sudden get on the radars having
enough if they're willing to give you know, if Orlando's want to give up
Pala Bank Carol for Luca, that all of a sudden volves them to the
top of the list, not the top of the list. But then I'll
also vaults them into a different stratosphere of trade suitor. If whatever team wins
the lottery this year and is willing to give up the number one pick for
Luca Nanchich, they will Detroit would they vault to the topic. So if
they're willing to trade kay Gunn again, when they all to the top of
this list and so it's tough to peg, but I think you want to
look at teams that are probably more closer to contending for a title without lucas
that when he comes, he pushes them over the top and it makes more
sense for them to one give up that much. And too, they have
the best chance of keeping him long term. Even again, if he doesn't
give a list of preferred suitors, that will do it. For this mail
bag, I hope you all enjoyed it. It was a long one and
until next time, please remember to rate, review, subscribe wherever you get
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We appreciate it all and until next time, and there's always if you shout
outs to one, the only, the indelible, Frank Milakina. And also
I'll leave you with my apologies and grants. Apologies to Jared Allen