1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,879 And they're selling oil, which is a cyclical asset, so the markets are 2 00:00:03,919 --> 00:00:08,880 anticipating a big slowdown. Now. If energy costs go down, that helps 3 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,880 the miners, other things being equal, And if the government starts cutting interest 4 00:00:12,919 --> 00:00:16,359 rates, that also that helps the price of gold and silver. You're listening 5 00:00:16,359 --> 00:00:21,359 to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information. You just 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:27,079 can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial 7 00:00:27,199 --> 00:00:33,280 Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get 8 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:43,320 your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, and 9 00:00:43,359 --> 00:00:48,399 welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network on your most Carrie 10 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:54,520 Lutz, It's it's eleven seven twenty three. John Rabinaz with us. Now, 11 00:00:55,079 --> 00:00:59,719 hey man, John, the debt situation. It looks like we've gotten 12 00:00:59,719 --> 00:01:03,359 to the point where too much of a good thing or too much of a 13 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:07,079 bad thing has become a really bad thing, right thy carry Yeah, well, 14 00:01:07,079 --> 00:01:11,280 you know it could be that the interest rates finally pedat this last week, 15 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,280 because I mean, there's lots of stuff. I'll go go through some 16 00:01:14,359 --> 00:01:15,799 of the bad things that are happening to the economy that make it look like 17 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,799 it's a slowdown. Plus we got, you know, a second potential world 18 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:26,280 war out there, so I think so the FED paused at their meeting and 19 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:32,480 they said some relatively dubbish things. I think a big part of it is 20 00:01:32,519 --> 00:01:37,280 that they don't want to be tightening into a global military crisis, so they 21 00:01:37,719 --> 00:01:41,280 want us to have the liquidity that we need to you know, to fight 22 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,680 a two different wars. So that's that's a big part of the rationale. 23 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,280 And the other part is that, yeah, you know, under the surface, 24 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:49,599 we've been talking for so long about how high interest rates have to go 25 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,640 before they start breaking things. Well, there are things that are breaking. 26 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,439 They're not the headline numbers, like they're not GDP AT or unemployment or anything. 27 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:02,799 But you know, the GDP now reading from the Atlanta Fed or the 28 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:08,400 current quarter instead of the previous quarter is like one percent room and so growth 29 00:02:08,479 --> 00:02:15,599 is slowing down dramatically, which reddit card debt is soaring and personal interest expense 30 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:20,560 I didn't even know that was a staff that the said kept and I didn't 31 00:02:20,599 --> 00:02:23,479 either, but it's spiked and it's up above a trillion dollars from a considerably 32 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:28,400 lower level just recently. But you know, the interest that consumers are pay 33 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,599 is way up now, which means consumer spending has to because of that. 34 00:02:34,599 --> 00:02:40,240 And student loan payments just kicked in, and let's see, credit card delinquencies 35 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:47,120 are spiking. Home purchase mortgage applications are down to nineteen ninety four levels. 36 00:02:47,319 --> 00:02:52,039 We had like two thirds of the number of people in the country in ninety 37 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,639 nine before that we have now, And yet the mortgage is being taken out 38 00:02:55,680 --> 00:03:01,120 to buy houses today are only at that level them back then. And you 39 00:03:01,159 --> 00:03:04,840 know, we Work, I didn't know they didn't go to bankrupt I thought 40 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:07,360 We Worked was already a bankrupt company, but apparently not. They just declared 41 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:13,680 bankruptcy. And that's a big commercial real estate manager. So they had oney 42 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:17,080 million square feet of all of the space. Yeah. The whole thing was 43 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:22,000 a scam, wasn't it. Do I have that run? They tried to 44 00:03:22,039 --> 00:03:24,479 pretend that they were a tech company when they were really just a real estate 45 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:30,479 management company. So they got a tech and a bad evaluation. Yeah, 46 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,319 And so what it was was they were you know, next generation office space. 47 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,240 Anybody can come in and just sign up for a desk, YadA YadA, 48 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:42,000 you know, which is just sillage. But anyhow, they're bankrupt, 49 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:46,719 and what happens to all the real estate leases that they have taken out on 50 00:03:46,759 --> 00:03:53,360 that twenty million square feet? And then they're already they're already basically just defaulting 51 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:54,560 on a lot of leases. A big chunk of them are in New York 52 00:03:54,599 --> 00:04:00,360 City, by the way, And so that is that's another hit to a 53 00:04:00,479 --> 00:04:02,560 sector that was already in trouble. Commercial real estate, especially in offices, 54 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,680 bad news lately, and so now it's just going to be that much worse. 55 00:04:09,759 --> 00:04:13,719 There's other stuff, but you know that right there is enough to make 56 00:04:13,759 --> 00:04:18,399 you wonder if next year is going to be a deeply recessionary year. And 57 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:23,480 so add in, you know, extremely high interest rates that are hitting everything 58 00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:28,639 in sight, and the potential for two wars that the US could get sucked 59 00:04:28,639 --> 00:04:32,040 into here still and yeah, you know, I think it's time for interest 60 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:38,560 rates to roll over started heading back down and for the FED to start easing 61 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:41,680 again. I don't think that happens right away, because inflation, at least 62 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:46,279 headline inflation is still above target. But I think bad things are bad enough 63 00:04:46,399 --> 00:04:51,920 that it won't be long before the FED is forced to reintroduce panic QI. 64 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,079 You know when they're when they're just buying every bond in sight. So that's 65 00:04:57,360 --> 00:05:00,639 a twenty four story. But yeah, it is inevitable. Hey, so 66 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:08,639 you know we're always repeating that great gats be aligned. How did you go 67 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:14,759 bankrupt? Slowly at first and then quickly? Listen to these highlights from total 68 00:05:14,879 --> 00:05:20,399 debt that the Federal Reserve just released today the Debt Report. Total household debts 69 00:05:20,439 --> 00:05:27,600 skyrocketed to seventeen point twenty nine trillion. Mortgage debt even though it's low, 70 00:05:27,879 --> 00:05:32,120 climbed by one hundred and twenty six billion to twelve point four trillion. Credit 71 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,879 card debt jumped forty eight billion, which is a four point seven quarterly increase. 72 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,800 Student loan debt grew by thirty billion and is now at one point six 73 00:05:42,879 --> 00:05:46,399 trillion, and auto loan debt is now at one point six trillion. So 74 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:51,800 there's as much student loan debt as there are as there is auto loan debt. 75 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:57,600 So it makes you think the students would have been better off buying cars 76 00:05:57,199 --> 00:06:02,000 and driving for Uber, right, I think fifty percent of college students, 77 00:06:02,079 --> 00:06:05,720 Yes, they would have been better off going straight to work. You know, 78 00:06:05,759 --> 00:06:12,160 there's a South Park episode now, where one of the subplots is that 79 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,240 in south Park, Colorado, in the town that the cartoon takes place in, 80 00:06:15,959 --> 00:06:21,040 all the handy men are getting rich because because all the upper class people 81 00:06:21,079 --> 00:06:26,160 got all these college degrees that are completely useless and so yeah, and they 82 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:29,800 don't they don't know how to fix anything. Yeah, So the handyman or 83 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,920 the new one percent in that town. And if you know what I think, 84 00:06:34,079 --> 00:06:36,720 you know, if you had an eighteen year old kid right now and 85 00:06:36,759 --> 00:06:42,000 you had a choice of sending them to a liberal arts school or to a 86 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,199 plumbing you know, plumber's office where they become like a journeyman plumber or something 87 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,839 like that, choose the plumber and it's it's their life will be so much 88 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:57,000 better. Now I got our dex business, John, We're going to start 89 00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:04,480 Handyman Academy where we're going to train people to be handyman because basically handyman's kind 90 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,759 of like a journeyman. He could do a little bit of a bunch of 91 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:14,920 different things. He's a uh, you know, basically an expert in many 92 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:18,839 areas, but a master of none. And you know, whether it's painting, 93 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:24,439 a little plumbing, little carpentry. They can do it all. So 94 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,959 we start the handyman economy because there's a shortage of them. I'll tell you 95 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,360 here in Florida, you get a good handyman and you want to like adopt 96 00:07:32,399 --> 00:07:38,319 the person and make them part of your family. My handyman got deported and 97 00:07:38,839 --> 00:07:44,600 my life has never been the same. See, that's the kind of illegal 98 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:49,519 immigrant we want. Somebody is all going to be handyman out there in the 99 00:07:49,519 --> 00:07:56,240 world, who are are yet American citizens? They should just come here, 100 00:07:56,279 --> 00:07:59,120 you know, those are the people we should let in that that actually is 101 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:01,759 okay. Two things. One is you should totally start that school. You 102 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:07,160 know. That would be if you had a degree in from handyman you certification, 103 00:08:07,399 --> 00:08:09,720 Yeah, because one thing you're you know, you don't know how to 104 00:08:09,759 --> 00:08:13,399 trust a new handyman, right they know what they're doing or anything. But 105 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:16,519 if you've got a degree in bag handyman, then that's, uh, that 106 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:20,879 gives him ten extra bucks an hour. Probably. So I have a kid 107 00:08:20,879 --> 00:08:28,360 who works for something called oh what the heck not called task Rabbits. Yeah, 108 00:08:28,519 --> 00:08:30,560 oh right, right, yeah, I've heard that. Yeah, it's 109 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:35,600 like it's like uber for handyman and so and he says, he, you 110 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:39,279 know, he makes forty bucks an hour putting together ia desks and things like 111 00:08:39,279 --> 00:08:43,799 that because people don't know how to do that. And yeah, so he's 112 00:08:43,799 --> 00:08:46,240 actually kind of like it. And it's it's you know, varied, and 113 00:08:46,279 --> 00:08:50,399 it's challenging, and it's you know, the hours are basically his to choose, 114 00:08:52,159 --> 00:08:56,639 and he feels like he's making pretty good money. So yes, and 115 00:08:56,799 --> 00:09:01,120 and you know, I'm much happier with him doing that, and I would 116 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,360 be with him in you know, year three at Oberlin or someplace. Yes, 117 00:09:05,039 --> 00:09:09,759 he's radical arts. Yeah, in puppetry, right, yeah, getting 118 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:16,480 is pursuing his degree in puppetry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So anyhow, 119 00:09:16,519 --> 00:09:18,960 that's well, that like are an interesting trend. Yeah, it's an 120 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:24,159 interesting new favorites Habeny. Nobody knows how to fix anything anymore, John, 121 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:28,320 You know, this is what society's devolved into, all these advanced degrees. 122 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,720 I was fortunate my father was a builder and was an ace mechanic, so 123 00:09:33,799 --> 00:09:37,200 I was fixing stuff from the time I was a little kid. But even 124 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,120 still, there's certain things I don't like to fix. Like I don't like 125 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,720 to fix grout and tiles because you're on your knees and you're bending over. 126 00:09:45,159 --> 00:09:50,840 And I tried fixing a toilet the other day and the hose disconnected and I 127 00:09:50,879 --> 00:09:54,200 had two inches of water on the floor. I would have gladly just paid 128 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:56,759 a handyman one hundred bucks to just take care of it for me. And 129 00:09:56,759 --> 00:10:01,320 then when your toilet leaks, you don't want to calling a plumber because it's 130 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:07,200 a little too extreme. But a handyman who's trained by Kerrie and John's a 131 00:10:07,399 --> 00:10:09,840 Handyman academy. I mean, that's a guy you can trust. You should 132 00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:16,080 totally found that school. You know, you would take that thing public five 133 00:10:16,159 --> 00:10:20,720 years after foundings and you'd be a billionaire. I think we can do this, 134 00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:24,919 man, I think this is a business model that'll work because nobody can 135 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:28,279 fix anything, especially here in Florida. They're all old, so even if 136 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:33,320 they used to know how to fix stuff, they've probably forgotten. The younger 137 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,960 people never knew how to fix anything anyway, and the people in the middle 138 00:10:37,159 --> 00:10:41,480 just can't be bothered. Right, Well, what's the generation that comes after 139 00:10:41,519 --> 00:10:46,200 the millennials? Is that Je lub Ay or the Zeemer? Can you imagine 140 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,840 what it's going to be like when the zoomers are the homeowners. These kids 141 00:10:50,879 --> 00:10:54,320 who have played video games their entire lives, never really even interacted with other 142 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,320 people face to face, but definitely never fix a leaky toilet or anything. 143 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,960 It's just going to be this white, a little bit market. Yeah, 144 00:11:01,759 --> 00:11:05,879 oh yeah, yeah, forget it. You know. They they will, 145 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,080 they'll happily hire somebody and pay him a hundred bucks to do stuff like that. 146 00:11:09,279 --> 00:11:13,039 Actually, I gotta say, I'm not handy. I'm one of those 147 00:11:13,159 --> 00:11:16,840 those guys. And we had a handyman back in Idaho where we lived before, 148 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:24,519 and I literally offered him to come live in our spare roodom. I 149 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:26,759 was. I was only partially kidding, you know, I said, good 150 00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:28,639 stuff, if you want to live here, you know, we have a 151 00:11:28,639 --> 00:11:31,879 bedroom you can just move in, because you know, we would get like 152 00:11:31,919 --> 00:11:33,919 a leak and I would think, oh my god, it's in the walls. 153 00:11:33,919 --> 00:11:37,159 We're gonna get mold, and I'd freak out, you know, and 154 00:11:37,519 --> 00:11:39,039 the plumber, plumber and the handyman would come and they would say, oh, 155 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:43,000 yeah, we just need to put this little knob right here and it's 156 00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:46,879 fixed, you know. And so yeah, those guys were incredibly parts of 157 00:11:46,919 --> 00:11:50,720 our lives back then. Yeah, Hey, you've got to have a good 158 00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:56,080 handing man, and they're becoming harder and harder to find. And and that 159 00:11:56,159 --> 00:12:01,919 also fits in with probably if you get a hire a handyman, you're going 160 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:07,080 to need to learn a foreign language, right because he's probably not going to 161 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:11,279 be from the United States, so you know, wherever he might come from, 162 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,759 you're going to have to if you want to communicate, Well, I 163 00:12:15,799 --> 00:12:18,679 guess you could use Google Translate, right, Well, no, you're your 164 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:26,480 handymank college is going to have to have English as a second language department where 165 00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:30,039 you just thrill them and you know, what, how do you say facet 166 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,159 and how do you say Philip said screw driver and stuff like that. You 167 00:12:33,159 --> 00:12:37,120 know, yeah, yeah, I think all right, So you need a 168 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,440 little language arts in there, or at least you've got to teach them to 169 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,799 use Google Translate. Well see, And then you know, if you're teaching 170 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:48,799 them English, you get government money for that. The government will subsidize your 171 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,879 English language programs for immigrants. So there's your second income stream. I love 172 00:12:52,919 --> 00:12:56,120 it, then, you do. You know the way the way a lot 173 00:12:56,159 --> 00:12:58,440 of coding boot camps do is they don't charge you anything to do the boot 174 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,320 camp, but you will on one third of your salary for the next five 175 00:13:01,399 --> 00:13:05,960 years or something. Totally servitude while we're right. Yeah, yeah, you 176 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,039 know, I totally do that with your handyman student. Oh I love it. 177 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,919 We're onto something here, man, Like we just need to franchise out 178 00:13:13,919 --> 00:13:22,279 our brains so we don't have to do anything, right, But there's like, 179 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,200 you know, there's really a need for these people, and and we 180 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:35,919 haven't been doing anything to make sure that they actually you know, it's like 181 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:41,720 nurses. I mean, all these different jobs we just can't keep up with. 182 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:46,559 And you would think it a market economy we supposedly used to have. 183 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:52,559 We would the market would be producing these people, right, Yeah, that's 184 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,240 the weird thing. Things on being balanced buy the market like they used to 185 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,840 be. Do you know what a traveling nurse is? Have you heard of 186 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,720 it? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, do you know about that? That's 187 00:14:01,759 --> 00:14:05,080 the weirdest thing. There are these nurses that travel around. They take like 188 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,279 six months condirect gigs, but for crazy money. I met one who makes 189 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:15,600 five thousand dollars a week in a cent Yeah is right, five thousand a 190 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,639 week? Did you five thousand a week? Oh my god? Yeah? 191 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:22,240 And and and it's a six month contract. He does that, and then 192 00:14:22,279 --> 00:14:26,159 he moves on to another place and you get Yeah, he gets to live 193 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:31,080 in and it's a guy. And get this, his name is Possum. 194 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,799 Yeah, he's a he's a country boy. He looks like a Texas biker. 195 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:41,240 But he's got it. He's an ICU nurse and they're they're in such 196 00:14:41,279 --> 00:14:45,120 shortage that he can just choose where he wants to live for six months and 197 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,559 and make like investment banker money while he's doing it. Yeah, it's it's 198 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,120 crazy that that exists. You think that the market like that would be flooded 199 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:56,279 with people wanting that job, you know, but apparently not. Yeah, 200 00:14:56,320 --> 00:15:00,559 like what happened? I mean, we were getting all these is from the 201 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,639 Philippines. Did they run out of them? I mean, seriously, we 202 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:11,279 had a program in the United States recruiting Filipino nurses and healthcare people to come 203 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,639 to the United States. But I guess I guess that's over. Well, 204 00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:20,399 see that the broader issue if this takes us into immigrant immigration policy, where 205 00:15:20,519 --> 00:15:24,200 we should definitely have immigration, but we should we should be picking and choosing 206 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,759 the people that come, right, Not just that, but he who walks 207 00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:28,840 across the border. It should be okay. Do you got any English language 208 00:15:28,879 --> 00:15:31,799 skills to begin with? Do you have any technical skills that we need? 209 00:15:31,799 --> 00:15:35,480 You know, can you program a computer? Are you a ic? Your 210 00:15:35,559 --> 00:15:37,200 nurse? Come on in, you know. And if we did that, 211 00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:43,039 we would upgrade our society really dramatically by you know, causing a brain drain 212 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,399 in the rest of the world. But that's how we should be doing it, 213 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,039 and we're we're doing everything wrong. Kary. You know what, never 214 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,320 matter what we talk about, it's it's what we're doing wrong. In the 215 00:15:50,399 --> 00:15:54,480 United States. We are a dumb country. Now we've been dumbed down, 216 00:15:56,120 --> 00:16:00,600 but from top to bottom. But like our leaders, you know, who 217 00:16:00,639 --> 00:16:04,639 isn't dumb down. A market based economy is supposed to correct for stupidity, 218 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:10,799 and it's not happening here. That's what's really weird about this, because you 219 00:16:10,799 --> 00:16:14,519 know, you would think that everything would be optimized by people making their own 220 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,759 choices and drawing in the talent that they need to run their industry perfectly and 221 00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:22,279 everything, and it's not happening. So I can't explain it. I guess 222 00:16:22,279 --> 00:16:25,840 that's a subject for a either a long and I want a video show for 223 00:16:25,919 --> 00:16:29,600 you or a long substack for me. I want to know, like why 224 00:16:29,639 --> 00:16:33,480 we aren't producing the people that we need. We're importing engineers, like from 225 00:16:33,519 --> 00:16:37,799 all over the world, India, China, you name it. We can't 226 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:44,559 seem to produce anybody. Doctors, you know, no longer homegrown. They're 227 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,559 coming from all over What are we producing here? You know, we're producing 228 00:16:48,639 --> 00:16:56,519 like guys, I guess we're still producing programmers and AI engineers, right, 229 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:03,519 programmers, that type of thing, But we seem to like have lost our 230 00:17:03,559 --> 00:17:10,079 ability to produce the people we need to run this complicated economy. Yeah, 231 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,640 but see that's what immigration ideally would fix, right, that's yeah, that's 232 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,880 the kind of the safety VIOB When you've got some big gap in your economy, 233 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,839 you just look around the world and invited in the people who fix your 234 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:26,640 problem. We don't do that though. Yeah, see we could with immigration 235 00:17:26,799 --> 00:17:30,000 fix all these things we're talking about that are wrong. Like, yeah, 236 00:17:30,599 --> 00:17:33,440 you'd get handymen from all over the world if we need them. You know, 237 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:38,160 we could get a million plumbers to move here this week if we just 238 00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:42,279 advertised it correctly. Right, they come from Dagistan and from Honduras. It 239 00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:45,920 doesn't matter. If you're a plumber, you come and we could do that, 240 00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:49,880 but we're not. We're I don't know, I don't know. Maybe 241 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,960 did they Ramaswami. We'll come up with that idea and actually fix it if 242 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,519 he's ever president or maybe RFK. You know, those are the kinds of 243 00:17:59,519 --> 00:18:03,519 guys who seem to be thinking at least about stuff, and maybe they'll come 244 00:18:03,599 --> 00:18:08,000 up with an idea that you instead of just closing the border, you use 245 00:18:08,039 --> 00:18:12,440 immigration as a way to upgrade. And yeah, well doesn't sound like rocket 246 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:18,079 science. That's what we used to do, I think, But you know 247 00:18:18,519 --> 00:18:23,200 it's uh, I don't get it. But hey, but odd to important 248 00:18:23,279 --> 00:18:30,119 matters or other important matters. So we've already talked about the tenure has peaked. 249 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,480 It appears, you know, it was up I think you mentioned to 250 00:18:33,559 --> 00:18:37,680 five percent. Now it's down to four point six. What does that tell 251 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:42,519 you about the economy if the rates are going down and the bond vigilantes are 252 00:18:42,559 --> 00:18:47,960 thrown in the towel. Well, I think five percent is a big round 253 00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:52,000 number, and you would expect, just technically a lot of selling to be 254 00:18:52,079 --> 00:18:55,000 right there, because you know, people like to put there their buy and 255 00:18:55,039 --> 00:19:00,079 sell orders at round numbers. So five percent is now resistance. Okay, 256 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,440 it's a ceiling for interestingness. And if we have a ten year you know, 257 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,519 spikes above it, then maybe it becomes the floor. So we don't 258 00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:11,960 know for sure that interest rates have peaked, but they do feel like they 259 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,079 have, and it's legiti Now, there's a legitimate reason to think that they 260 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:21,559 should peak here because five percent was higher than the terminal rate in two thousand 261 00:19:21,559 --> 00:19:25,279 and seven, back when we only had half as much debt as we have 262 00:19:25,519 --> 00:19:29,839 now. You know, so I think we're financially more fragile today, which 263 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,480 means the terminal interest rate, the rate that starts breaking things, would be 264 00:19:33,559 --> 00:19:36,480 lower. And you know, it could be that we're going to look back 265 00:19:36,519 --> 00:19:38,480 on this and say, oh, we overshot when we got to five percent. 266 00:19:38,519 --> 00:19:41,720 You know, we should have started cutting it more or whatever. But 267 00:19:41,839 --> 00:19:45,440 we'll see, you know, it's there's just an awful lot of stuff going 268 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,680 wrong out there. I'm worried about the small banks, you know, with 269 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,559 the with commercial real estate tanking. A lot of local and regional banks own 270 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,480 that debt and so that story has yet to play out, and that's that's 271 00:19:56,519 --> 00:20:00,960 a scary thing. Oh, it's a really scary in a trillion dollars a 272 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:07,279 year is our interest expense or it's going to be for the US debt, 273 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:12,319 So you knew that they're going to monetize a chunk of this death. Even 274 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:18,480 if they monetize the interest payment itself, that's still a trillion dollars of printing 275 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,240 out of thin air just to keep this whole thing afloat. How long can 276 00:20:22,279 --> 00:20:26,200 they keep doing that for? John? Yeah, you see, there's this 277 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:30,559 big debate about why the Fed is still running massive deficits with the economy growing 278 00:20:30,599 --> 00:20:34,519 and you know the last GDPRO before it was four point five percent annual rate, 279 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,039 So why is the deficit so massive? And the answer is pretty straightforward. 280 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:44,160 Suddenly we have a trillion dollars a year in interest expense, whereas before 281 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,359 it was three hundred billion or whatever. So we have this this five hundred 282 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:53,079 to seven hundred billion dollar extra bill that there's really nothing we can do about. 283 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,559 Brenton and printed. Well. You know what else is interesting about this 284 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,680 is that the federal government, and with that big deficit that they're running, 285 00:21:00,839 --> 00:21:07,440 they started borrowing very short just lately. So it's like they knew interest rates 286 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,359 had peached. I mean, we're going to go back down. You know, 287 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:12,160 it could be that there's a there's some collusion going on there where the 288 00:21:12,759 --> 00:21:15,759 Treasury Department told the Fed, you need to start cutting interest rates, and 289 00:21:15,759 --> 00:21:19,799 for the next couple of months, we're going to anticipate that by borrowing three 290 00:21:19,839 --> 00:21:23,759 months out, all right, and by that time those three month things, 291 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:27,359 by the time they come due, we want to be able to roll them 292 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,240 over at a lower rate. And so we'll see it. But it sounds 293 00:21:30,319 --> 00:21:37,359 like something like that happened. Yeah, well, it's definitely it's definitely intractable. 294 00:21:37,759 --> 00:21:44,559 There's nothing they can really do other than print up another trillion, buy 295 00:21:44,799 --> 00:21:49,240 a trillion dollars worth of treasuries every year. But you know, like something 296 00:21:49,319 --> 00:21:56,000 like seventy percent of the national dead is actually interest on the dead that has 297 00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:59,799 been rolled over. At least that was what it was a few years ago, 298 00:22:00,039 --> 00:22:04,640 probably even higher now. So basically the whole scheme of you know, 299 00:22:06,279 --> 00:22:11,759 printing up some money and then issuing a note. So the Treasury issues a 300 00:22:11,799 --> 00:22:17,039 note to the Federal Reserve. It then prints money out of thin air and 301 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:21,039 gives it to them, and then it collects interest. It sells that debt 302 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:26,960 off and the banks are printing up money to buy it, and then you 303 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,359 know, seventy percent. So if we just got rid of seventy percent of 304 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,839 the debt, that would be the interest that's accrued on the debt that we 305 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:41,039 just rolled over. You know, it's a mess. Yes, we're kind 306 00:22:41,039 --> 00:22:45,680 of we're kind of doing modern monetary theory already. Yeah, we had Well, 307 00:22:47,079 --> 00:22:51,119 why are the gold miners so cheap when all this is happening? You 308 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:55,200 know, that is an interesting question because they are ridiculously cheap right now. 309 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,680 If you look at for instance, GDX, the big gold mining ETF yeah, 310 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,319 versus say the NASDAK or something like that. The ASDAC went up mostly 311 00:23:03,759 --> 00:23:07,000 in the past year. GDX went down, and then there's like a twenty 312 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,920 five percentage point gap between their performance. GDX is very early up for the 313 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,519 year and the NASDA action is up, you know, twenty percent or so. 314 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,680 Why is that? Who knows? I think one one part of that 315 00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:23,559 is that mining became a very hard business. In the last couple of years. 316 00:23:23,599 --> 00:23:26,680 Oil prices went up and labor costs went up, and those are the 317 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:32,160 two main inputs in a mine, or two main costs of running a mind. 318 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:37,720 So mining margins were squeezed by that. But now oil is down. 319 00:23:37,759 --> 00:23:44,559 It's in the seventies again from the low nineilies not too long ago. Yeahotead 320 00:23:44,559 --> 00:23:47,680 of the seventies today, you know this. Yeah, at last I saw 321 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,759 it was like seventy eight dollars a barrow or something. So it's getting whid 322 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:56,759 seven forty four according to kid Go. Okay, So this is inflation anticipation 323 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,599 or on recession anticipation behavior, right. I seen people buy long bonds and 324 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:06,160 they're selling oil, which is a cyclical asset. So the markets are anticipating 325 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,759 a big slow down. Now. If energy costs to go down, that 326 00:24:10,039 --> 00:24:14,079 helps the miners, other things being equal, And if the government starts cutting 327 00:24:14,079 --> 00:24:17,480 interest rates that also that helps the price of gold and silver. Yes, 328 00:24:17,559 --> 00:24:23,720 well, miners are looking really cheap at these levels, and even the royalty 329 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:29,160 streaming companies, which are normally the closest thing to risk free in that space, 330 00:24:29,279 --> 00:24:33,480 have just gotten whacked lately. So yeah, I think it's possible that 331 00:24:33,559 --> 00:24:37,440 we're nearing a bottom, a cyclical bottom for prison with the golden's over miners, 332 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:44,720 and so if the FED is back to easing, they go up unless 333 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,440 the industry just ceases to exist. It can't get any cheaper than it is. 334 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,079 Well, there's a lot of political risk out there. All of a 335 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,400 sudden, the thing happened with frank and Nevada. It's ps WE where they're 336 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:03,240 literally their biggest royalty streaming deal is with this gigantic copper gold mine in Panama 337 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,799 that was going to send a torrent of cash to Franko Nevado over the next 338 00:25:07,839 --> 00:25:14,799 twenty or thirty years. But people started protesting that mind because of its environmental 339 00:25:14,839 --> 00:25:18,160 impact, which is, you know, a real thing. And the government 340 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,799 in Panama that just threw up its hands and said, okay, on December 341 00:25:21,799 --> 00:25:26,640 seventeenth, we're going to have a referendum and if people vote to close the 342 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,079 MIND, so be it. We close this mine. And so that's a 343 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,680 big hit to Franko Nevada. It stock went down probably more than the hit 344 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,440 that it's going to take if that MIND closes. So it actually became a 345 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,960 better buy at its current price than it was before this bad news. But 346 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:48,839 this means that political risk is an even bigger deal for the commodity space than 347 00:25:48,839 --> 00:25:52,799 it was before. You know, we had a revolution in an African country 348 00:25:52,799 --> 00:25:56,559 that was a big uranium producer, and we got this thing in Panama. 349 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,680 And there was one more I forget, but there well, Chile, which 350 00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:06,720 used to be a rocket olid capitalist stream market Latin American country upon you know, 351 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,960 is kind of talking about nationalizing some of its living minds and things. 352 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:15,480 You know that they're thinking of doing things that would be very bad for mining 353 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:22,000 as as a concept, you know, as a capitalist enterprise. So what 354 00:26:22,039 --> 00:26:26,400 that means is one, mining is suddenly a riskier business than we've got and 355 00:26:26,519 --> 00:26:32,440 two North American assets should be trading at a bigger premium than previously because it's 356 00:26:32,759 --> 00:26:37,559 it's less likely. But Canada and Mexico in the US, we're going to 357 00:26:37,599 --> 00:26:40,880 start nationalizing minds. It's not no guarantee. I think Biden would do that 358 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:45,279 if you have the choice, and Trudeau would too. Look to Trilogy basically 359 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:51,480 put that company out of business almost with the you know, they'd gotten the 360 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:56,039 permit to build this road in the Arctic in Alaska, and then he revoked 361 00:26:56,079 --> 00:27:00,839 the approval and then they just filed a bunch of the projection metal objections and 362 00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:07,319 this is like hundred wilderness and it's a road that you know, is essential 363 00:27:07,799 --> 00:27:14,079 to come up with all these battery metals, there's cobalt, there's copper, 364 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,279 all the things in the IRA Act, and they've defeated one of the largest 365 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:27,319 potential copper producers in the world and unquestionable environmental grounds. So mining is not 366 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:32,480 safe anywhere, John, is what it comes down to. Yeah, And 367 00:27:32,759 --> 00:27:37,599 okay, here here's what that means from an investment piesis standpoint one is that 368 00:27:37,799 --> 00:27:44,519 you want to lighten up on the actual miners and increase your exposure to the 369 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,680 royalty streaming companies, which are really diversified, so they could be hurt by 370 00:27:48,759 --> 00:27:52,319 one mind having trouble, but they can't be killed. And then the third 371 00:27:52,400 --> 00:28:00,519 thing you want to do is emphasize physical commodity et apps. Yeah, sprought 372 00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,920 uranium right, Yes, For instance, they just go out and they buy 373 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,839 uranium and they take it off the market and they hold on to it, 374 00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:11,160 so it doesn't matter what happens to that African uranium mine or anything. And 375 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:18,079 it actually it's good for the physical atfs if there's stuff like that out there, 376 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,680 because it makes the price of the commodity to go up, which makes 377 00:28:21,839 --> 00:28:26,440 the holdings of the physical ETF become more valuable. So I think that might 378 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,599 be the play in the commodity space, right now, just load up on 379 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,680 those physical ETFs and just let the market play out then, you know. 380 00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:40,880 And so actually the government will go to Sprout and say we need you uranium. 381 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,079 Here's a check. Yeah. See, that's that's the big risk is 382 00:28:44,079 --> 00:28:48,839 that they expropriate what's in the vaults of the of the physical ETFs and then 383 00:28:49,119 --> 00:28:52,720 you know, we can't control that. But that's that's a little further down 384 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:57,519 the road than mining nationalization. But you're right, nothing is saved, you 385 00:28:57,559 --> 00:29:02,559 know. The only thing that well, you want to store things involved in 386 00:29:02,599 --> 00:29:06,039 other countries just to spread your risk around, and you want to own physical 387 00:29:06,039 --> 00:29:11,279 stuff yourself because yeah, going back to our initial thesis, if you invest 388 00:29:11,319 --> 00:29:15,720 in human capital, meaning you learn how to fix stuff, because you won't 389 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,839 be able to buy as much new stuff. We've already seen that from the 390 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,680 pandemic, you know, so more stuff is going to have to be fixed, 391 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,799 and we have less people who know how to fix it than ever before. 392 00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:33,519 So there's the play. Invest in the handyman academy, right, get 393 00:29:33,519 --> 00:29:40,200 a sort of get your handyman certification, and put your excess profits into physical 394 00:29:40,279 --> 00:29:45,000 metals and the ETFs. Yeah, that's that's probably going to end up end 395 00:29:45,039 --> 00:29:48,319 up being the portfolio that we look back on as the big winner. Right. 396 00:29:48,599 --> 00:29:52,319 You invest to yourself, Yeah, train yourself to be a handyman. 397 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:57,559 You invest in whoever else trains the handyman, and then you get physical with 398 00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:03,480 your investment and that's probably the thing that works. You know, I'm kind 399 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:07,839 of convincing myself. Now. I got the name too, for the for 400 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:14,400 the Handyman Academy. Remember Three's Company, That guy Schneider in the Three's Company, 401 00:30:14,519 --> 00:30:18,559 he was a goofball. We call it Schneider's Handyman Academy. Okay, 402 00:30:18,599 --> 00:30:22,839 I remember the hot blonde in threes Company? Yeah? I do not remember 403 00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:27,039 a handyman or maybe yeah, I think it was with the moment Suzanne Summers. 404 00:30:27,799 --> 00:30:30,960 That's all I mad. Maybe I'm the wrong show, but hey, 405 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,279 that's what memory does. All right. Well, that is it for this 406 00:30:34,359 --> 00:30:41,519 week. Make sure you go over to John Substack rabino dot substack dot com 407 00:30:41,559 --> 00:30:47,480 sign up subscribe to his newsletter because you will be learning about the handyman and 408 00:30:47,559 --> 00:30:51,400 the acute shortage raving. I have a feeling there'll be an article coming out 409 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:56,079 shortly. Hey, sign up, for a free newsletter Financial Survival Network dot 410 00:30:56,079 --> 00:30:57,519 com. John, we will talk to you in a couple of weeks. 411 00:30:57,599 --> 00:31:03,559 All right, Kerry, thanks thanks for listening to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network, 412 00:31:03,759 --> 00:31:07,519 your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial 413 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:14,240 Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,