WEBVTT 1 00:00:29.760 --> 00:00:33.520 Welcome to mid Rats with Sal from Commander Salamander and the Eagle One from Eagle 2 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:38.320 Speak at see or shore your home for a discussion of national security issues in 3 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:43.880 all things maritime and welcome board everybody. We greatly appreciate you taking time to 4 00:00:43.960 --> 00:00:47.079 join us, and today we're going to focus on one of the more interesting 5 00:00:47.200 --> 00:00:53.079 national security and diplomatic developments of the last fifteen years in the Indo Pacific theater, 6 00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:58.640 the Quadrennial Security Dialogue or Quad of the United States, India, Japan, 7 00:00:58.759 --> 00:01:03.240 and Australia. And returning to Midrafts to discuss will be Blake Herzinger, 8 00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:07.719 Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defense Program at the United States Study Center. 9 00:01:08.040 --> 00:01:11.680 Blake, welcome back to Midrats. Hey, Sal, how you go 10 00:01:11.799 --> 00:01:14.760 one, Thanks for having me. Hey, it's great to having you back 11 00:01:14.799 --> 00:01:18.040 with us today, and we appreciate you taking time. And it's got to 12 00:01:18.079 --> 00:01:23.000 be a beautiful Singapore Sunday morning on the other side of the planet, that 13 00:01:23.040 --> 00:01:26.159 we should all take a moment and light a cannel for modern technology. That 14 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:29.040 we can't do this just like we're in the same room with each other, 15 00:01:29.040 --> 00:01:34.319 but we are literally on the other side of the planet and We told everybody 16 00:01:34.439 --> 00:01:38.799 early on in the advertisements show that we're going to talk about the QUAD today. 17 00:01:38.879 --> 00:01:42.840 So as a scene center, Blake being that you are kind of in 18 00:01:42.920 --> 00:01:47.840 the meta center of where the QUAD is located. For the listeners that might 19 00:01:47.879 --> 00:01:52.079 not be familiar with the Quad, as we're going to talk about it today, 20 00:01:52.280 --> 00:01:55.439 it's could describe to him what it is, and also the work that 21 00:01:55.480 --> 00:02:01.079 you and your team just got through working on that describes as it exist today, 22 00:02:02.760 --> 00:02:08.479 you bet. So. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue has its roots actually in 23 00:02:08.520 --> 00:02:15.520 the multilateral response to the Boxing Day tsunami of two thousand and eight. So 24 00:02:15.879 --> 00:02:23.240 Japan, Australia, India, and the United States worked together in basically delivering 25 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:29.639 kind of an HDR response to the tsunami and then just sort of kept talking 26 00:02:29.719 --> 00:02:36.400 after that, and then there was a bit of political heartburn that happened kind 27 00:02:36.400 --> 00:02:39.639 of Visa v. China and the four members. It was at that time 28 00:02:39.759 --> 00:02:46.319 seen as a bit too provocative by some members, and then some members dropped 29 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:49.599 out. Other members then were upset that those members had dropped out, so 30 00:02:49.759 --> 00:02:54.159 it became this whole bruhaha kind of went away and then was resuscitated a few 31 00:02:54.400 --> 00:02:58.319 a few years ago. Now that everyone is sort of on the same page 32 00:02:58.319 --> 00:03:01.599 about the PRC, or at least a similar page. So the QUAD as 33 00:03:01.599 --> 00:03:10.960 we see it today was revived and it was really formalized. So we saw 34 00:03:12.479 --> 00:03:16.639 leaders summits and joint statements and all these things that you see when a when 35 00:03:16.639 --> 00:03:22.639 a dialogue or a grouping becomes real, you know. And then and then 36 00:03:22.680 --> 00:03:25.879 they had to find something to do with it. What is the QUAD going 37 00:03:25.919 --> 00:03:30.080 to do? And that is still actually kind of the open debate. There 38 00:03:30.080 --> 00:03:34.680 has been an effort to drive it in a direction that has focused more on 39 00:03:34.759 --> 00:03:40.000 public goods. So during COVID, we saw a vaccine partnership that was designed 40 00:03:40.039 --> 00:03:45.599 to you know, co produce vaccines and deliver them to places that needed them. 41 00:03:45.599 --> 00:03:50.960 That was somewhat successful, not entirely, but somewhat. We have seen 42 00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:59.560 a Maritime Domain Awareness Project and Indo Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness Initiative IPMDA. There 43 00:03:59.560 --> 00:04:05.360 have been any number of clean energy transition support programs, so it's very public 44 00:04:05.400 --> 00:04:12.919 goods focused in an effort to sort of appear not necessarily aimed at the PRC 45 00:04:13.240 --> 00:04:15.480 because it has been painted, of course by Beijing as an effort to contain 46 00:04:15.600 --> 00:04:21.959 China, because everything is apparently an effort to contain China. So the project 47 00:04:21.800 --> 00:04:27.519 that I worked on at the US Study Center for the University of Sydney with 48 00:04:28.279 --> 00:04:31.360 four colleagues was designed around, hey, what if we could find a really 49 00:04:31.399 --> 00:04:39.279 productive maritime security role or the Quad, and so our our project bolstering the 50 00:04:39.319 --> 00:04:45.160 Quad and then to use that the subtext was a case really for finding a 51 00:04:46.279 --> 00:04:49.879 four partner approach to maritime security. So we examined everything from logistics to anti 52 00:04:49.920 --> 00:04:55.639 submarine warfare. You know, how could these four partners work together in a 53 00:04:55.680 --> 00:05:02.519 way that doesn't imply or create a traditional alliance but all but does create deterrent 54 00:05:02.560 --> 00:05:10.240 capabilities and does build capacity across the four partners to handle because some of the 55 00:05:10.279 --> 00:05:18.120 maritime challenges that we face today, how does you know one of the issues 56 00:05:18.160 --> 00:05:21.560 I would think that the all of these people, all these four partners in 57 00:05:21.759 --> 00:05:28.079 the Quad, it would be interested in is is UH maritime domain awareness? 58 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:31.560 And I think you focused on that on one piece I saw on nine dash 59 00:05:31.639 --> 00:05:35.160 lines. You want to talk a little bit about about that role for for 60 00:05:35.199 --> 00:05:41.480 the Quad and how that meshes with the existing agreements between some of the country 61 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:46.120 Singapore being one of them for piracy, you know that that great organization that 62 00:05:46.199 --> 00:05:53.160 works out of kin of Singapore. Yeah, absolutely so. So IPMD gay 63 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:59.279 Is has been kind of structured within the Quad, I think in my in 64 00:05:59.360 --> 00:06:02.600 my view, it builds on what the Maritime Security Initiative already did, which 65 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:11.279 was a unilateral US deal announced in twenty fifteen that has been quite successful actually 66 00:06:11.279 --> 00:06:16.839 in the Pacific. But absolutely sharing kind of among those four partners, in 67 00:06:16.879 --> 00:06:26.000 particular sharing maritime domain awareness information and then including fusion centers like Singapore's IFC. 68 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:32.120 India also has its own IFC in Delhi. Now, Japan does a fair 69 00:06:32.120 --> 00:06:36.720 bit on the MDA front, and using the Quad kind of as a clearinghouse 70 00:06:36.759 --> 00:06:42.560 for sharing information with partners that aren't inside the Quad is a good way to 71 00:06:42.639 --> 00:06:47.720 sort of put a friendly face on it, you know, because the leaders 72 00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:50.920 of the Quad have been careful, and they do need to be careful that 73 00:06:50.959 --> 00:06:59.000 the Quad isn't painted as this you know, NATO for Asia thing that is 74 00:06:59.079 --> 00:07:02.759 designed to confront China. They want to reach out to partners like Singapore, 75 00:07:02.959 --> 00:07:09.439 like South Korea, you know, Vietnam, Philippines, and it's hard for 76 00:07:09.480 --> 00:07:16.079 those countries to partner with an organization that is explicitly anti China. So QUAD 77 00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:21.000 leaders have appropriately done their best to structure the QUAD in such a way that 78 00:07:21.040 --> 00:07:29.680 it's useful but also avoids a very you know, explicitly confrontational approach. So 79 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:33.240 that's kind of where it's at now. One of the points that y'all made 80 00:07:33.279 --> 00:07:40.040 in your study over at the United States Study Center on the Quad is saying 81 00:07:40.079 --> 00:07:43.920 the Quad is not living up to its full potential. And when you look 82 00:07:43.959 --> 00:07:46.199 at it on paper, you can see that potential there, but it also 83 00:07:46.199 --> 00:07:50.879 becomes really apparent, like the old old sesame street thing. One of these 84 00:07:50.879 --> 00:07:56.800 things does not belong together. And you have you as Australia, we have 85 00:07:56.839 --> 00:08:03.600 a bilateral treaty, we have the Aucue Agreement that we might want to talk 86 00:08:03.639 --> 00:08:07.079 about some parallel efforts there that might involve the Quad. Later. They also 87 00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:13.920 have the US Japan Bilateral Security Agreement, and Japan and Australia, especially in 88 00:08:13.959 --> 00:08:18.240 the last few years, have really up their game their own bilateral relationships. 89 00:08:18.639 --> 00:08:22.879 But then you have India that nobody has a on paper security arrangement with, 90 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:28.519 and they also run with the with the tough kids in the blocks and bricks 91 00:08:28.759 --> 00:08:37.120 being the eye and bricks and India has had some interesting I wouldn't say they're 92 00:08:37.120 --> 00:08:43.559 playing both sides of the coin or the argument, especially in evolves China and 93 00:08:43.639 --> 00:08:48.639 Russia. Just they live in a complicated neighborhood, They have complicated security arrangements, 94 00:08:48.799 --> 00:08:54.519 so they're going to have a complicated view. But the awkwardness of India 95 00:08:54.600 --> 00:08:58.879 having a slightly different relationship when you try to look at it in the big 96 00:09:00.080 --> 00:09:05.840 pixels point of view, that seems to be slowly changing in a more pro 97 00:09:05.519 --> 00:09:11.080 quad way, whether it's quad or I like the phrase quad minus, which 98 00:09:11.120 --> 00:09:15.799 is quad members doing stuff together without everybody playing. Is that a correct assumption 99 00:09:15.879 --> 00:09:20.840 from what y'all looked at. Yeah, and it's that you've highlighted. You've 100 00:09:20.919 --> 00:09:26.200 highlighted. Really the crux of one of the big issues is that how do 101 00:09:26.240 --> 00:09:33.080 you do some of these activities as four partners that that aren't allies. You 102 00:09:33.080 --> 00:09:39.639 know, three have alliance relationships that you know, the traditional heaven spoke model. 103 00:09:39.639 --> 00:09:43.200 And then, as you mentioned already, Japan and Australia getting closer together 104 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:48.480 in arrangements that don't necessarily involve the United States. And then there's India. 105 00:09:50.080 --> 00:09:56.360 However, I think after the twenty twenty killings at the line of actual control 106 00:09:56.080 --> 00:10:03.399 in the Himalaya. I think we've seen Indian as stance toward Beijing harden in 107 00:10:03.440 --> 00:10:09.000 a lot of ways. I don't think it's necessarily politically feasible for India to 108 00:10:09.320 --> 00:10:13.720 play the middle, and I don't think they intend to. But but you're 109 00:10:13.720 --> 00:10:18.279 absolutely right to say, you know, they have a complicated relationship, and 110 00:10:18.279 --> 00:10:22.759 it's a complicated neighborhood. That's it's fair to say. But India is looking 111 00:10:22.879 --> 00:10:28.399 for ways to you know, deter China. You know, they have a 112 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:37.720 very sensitive relationship. They're kind of in India's north. China's navy is increasingly 113 00:10:37.759 --> 00:10:43.799 present in the Indian Ocean, which makes Deli quite uncomfortable. It's an interesting 114 00:10:43.799 --> 00:10:48.799 one because when you go to you know, the East East China see or 115 00:10:48.840 --> 00:10:50.840 in South China see or West Philippine see if you like that better, which 116 00:10:50.840 --> 00:10:54.799 I do, or East which the Vietnamese like better, and so do I. 117 00:10:56.360 --> 00:10:58.000 But you hear you know China kind of saying, well, you know, 118 00:10:58.039 --> 00:11:01.879 this is the South China see has our name on it. And then 119 00:11:01.879 --> 00:11:03.440 they go into the Indian Ocean and India it doesn't love it, and they 120 00:11:03.440 --> 00:11:07.039 say, well it's not like it's their ocean. Like all right, well, 121 00:11:07.080 --> 00:11:09.120 you can't really have it both ways, guys, Like if you're going 122 00:11:09.159 --> 00:11:11.799 to say your name is on it that therefore it belongs to you, then 123 00:11:11.919 --> 00:11:16.279 I guess you don't really have a role in the Indian Ocean. But you 124 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:20.159 know, that is their one. They're one overseas naval base in Djibouti, 125 00:11:20.240 --> 00:11:28.159 so they are crossing the Indian Ocean constantly. I believe they're forty fifth Anti 126 00:11:28.200 --> 00:11:33.399 Piracy task Force just just deployed, maybe forty fifth somewhere in the forties, 127 00:11:35.279 --> 00:11:37.159 So they are you know, they are present. They are not going away. 128 00:11:37.759 --> 00:11:41.120 So India has to deal with this and they have to figure out how 129 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:52.039 I don't necessarily anticipate India ditching their non aligned kind of stance that is traditionally 130 00:11:52.159 --> 00:11:58.600 part of their kind of political identity, but getting closer to the US, 131 00:12:00.279 --> 00:12:03.759 Japan, Australia to find ways to deter China, I think is within the 132 00:12:03.799 --> 00:12:09.159 realm of possibility. I don't think it's necessarily useful to paint this as you 133 00:12:09.200 --> 00:12:15.600 know, this democracies club, because I think there's some problematic developments on the 134 00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:20.039 ground in India on the political front. So you know, this kind of 135 00:12:20.120 --> 00:12:26.080 ongoing effort to champion democracy is all well and good, but it's also very 136 00:12:26.080 --> 00:12:35.799 difficult to marshal a group effectively if you're pointing fingers at autocracies or non non 137 00:12:35.840 --> 00:12:37.519 democracies and then saying, oh, except these ones. You know, we 138 00:12:37.600 --> 00:12:41.240 like these ones because they're sort of like democracies. You know, we've done 139 00:12:41.240 --> 00:12:46.120 that dance with Vietnam in recent years. We're doing that dance now with India. 140 00:12:46.279 --> 00:12:50.000 Yes, it's a democracy, but are there also problematic, non non 141 00:12:50.039 --> 00:12:56.600 democratic things happening there? Certainly, you know, democracy as a as a 142 00:12:56.639 --> 00:13:05.080 mobilizer is tough at the moment. The uh there's an article in the Hindus 143 00:13:05.440 --> 00:13:13.120 understand Times talking about how the QUAD and AND and the Association of Southeast Asian 144 00:13:13.200 --> 00:13:22.080 Nations should learn to work together. I guess it is there. I mean 145 00:13:22.080 --> 00:13:28.879 they act like there's some kind of competitive uh gap uh competitive spirit between the 146 00:13:28.919 --> 00:13:31.320 two entities. You do you see that this does this make any sense that 147 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:35.240 there's I mean, it makes sense to work together, I guess, But 148 00:13:35.039 --> 00:13:39.080 is there a competition between in interview between the QUAD and the AND and the 149 00:13:39.120 --> 00:13:46.200 Association. So this was part of when when the quad re emerged and was 150 00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:52.360 formalized. And this this has happened also with AUCUS, the Australia uk US 151 00:13:52.840 --> 00:14:03.879 technology Sharing arrangement is immediately voices within AUSION started kind of worrying publicly that these 152 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:11.360 arrangements would somehow detract from ausion centrality in the region. Now, ausion centrality 153 00:14:11.440 --> 00:14:13.879 is something that we talk about a lot, not a lot of people know 154 00:14:13.919 --> 00:14:18.919 what it actually means. It has become sort of a shibboleth. You know, 155 00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:26.639 we acknowledge ausion centrality, we respect it, etcetera, etcetera. Things 156 00:14:26.679 --> 00:14:28.879 like AUCUS, you know, really, to me has nothing to do with 157 00:14:28.919 --> 00:14:33.120 ausion centrality. That's a tech sharing agreement. And if you talk about the 158 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:39.360 Quad, the Quad has been able to reformalize and found this energy because ausion 159 00:14:41.200 --> 00:14:46.840 is effectively has effectively been neutralized VISA v. The PRC. You know, 160 00:14:46.879 --> 00:14:52.919 there's nothing that ausion can really do in a space that is strategic for all 161 00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:58.960 four of these partners, and so they have grouped up to figure out how 162 00:14:58.000 --> 00:15:01.720 to do something among the f or them. They can interact with aussion, 163 00:15:01.840 --> 00:15:07.720 but they're not. I think that it's partly a recognition that ausion can't do 164 00:15:07.799 --> 00:15:11.480 some of the things that need to be done. It's a consensus driven organization. 165 00:15:13.000 --> 00:15:20.279 It is irrevocably splintered from the inside. They cannot come to a resolution 166 00:15:20.480 --> 00:15:26.600 on things like the South China Sea, even with states like Cambodia preventing joint 167 00:15:26.639 --> 00:15:33.799 statements, even with a collective position on the South China Sea. So you 168 00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:41.279 know, we can respect ausion centrality without waiting for aussion to move because if 169 00:15:41.279 --> 00:15:45.639 you're waiting for that, then you're gonna wait a long time. I see 170 00:15:46.200 --> 00:15:50.639 understatement at the year. And one of my favorite things in life is, 171 00:15:50.759 --> 00:15:54.440 you know, first thing, first thing to do, go to the go 172 00:15:54.480 --> 00:15:58.799 to the map, and if you have a globe, even better. I've 173 00:15:58.879 --> 00:16:02.879 actually picked up a globe a couple of years ago, very enthralled with the 174 00:16:03.159 --> 00:16:08.200 old school British Empire globe. But when you look at there's there's a nice 175 00:16:08.360 --> 00:16:12.759 you know, the America's way off on screen, right. But obviously we 176 00:16:12.799 --> 00:16:18.000 are an important part of the Asian security arrangement. And when you look at 177 00:16:18.039 --> 00:16:22.840 the other members in the area I guess you mentioned earlier. Really you know 178 00:16:22.919 --> 00:16:29.080 two of the right in the center that come to mind that have similar concerns 179 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:33.720 about an expansive PRC. That's you have Vietnam and the Philippines, and you 180 00:16:33.759 --> 00:16:40.480 have another circle of nations, some of which you just mentioned Cambodia if not, 181 00:16:41.039 --> 00:16:45.360 and they have a historical connection with the Chinese mostly they both hate Vietnamese, 182 00:16:47.279 --> 00:16:49.799 but they have they're building that naval base there, so that's one of 183 00:16:49.840 --> 00:16:59.679 them. You have Malaysia that has a long standing security interaction with especially Australia. 184 00:17:00.200 --> 00:17:04.680 You have Thailand that on and off relationship with the US to a certain 185 00:17:04.720 --> 00:17:10.400 extent. And then you've got a few wild cards out there that, even 186 00:17:10.400 --> 00:17:14.559 though they don't want to be, they really are Pacific players. Canada is 187 00:17:15.039 --> 00:17:18.880 one that actually has deployed there recently and have done some nice things with folks 188 00:17:18.880 --> 00:17:26.200 in the area. And what is happening off the western coast of South America 189 00:17:26.759 --> 00:17:33.000 I think has some potential for nations such as Chile to become more involved as 190 00:17:33.039 --> 00:17:37.240 their fishing stocks or strip mined out there by the Chinese fishing fleets. So 191 00:17:37.480 --> 00:17:41.880 when you look at that type of arrangements, I guess the big pole in 192 00:17:41.880 --> 00:17:45.519 the tent we talk about, at least from a distance from from what I 193 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:49.079 read, they're just down the street from you, but really the nation to 194 00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:55.119 watch is we move into the middle part of the century, it's got to 195 00:17:55.119 --> 00:18:00.799 be Indonesia. How are the Indonesians reacting or looking at this old development? 196 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:03.119 Are they is there anything they buy fine attractive to it? Or do they 197 00:18:03.119 --> 00:18:07.640 just want to stay out of the way and continue to grow. So Indonesia 198 00:18:07.680 --> 00:18:14.359 is an interesting one. It I think every year or every two years, 199 00:18:14.559 --> 00:18:18.079 you get a big piece in you know, the Economist or the New York 200 00:18:18.119 --> 00:18:22.880 Times when when someone discovers Indonesia and they'll say, like, oh my gosh, 201 00:18:22.880 --> 00:18:29.559 you know, huge amounts of natural resources, particularly in the ev supply 202 00:18:29.640 --> 00:18:36.559 chain, enormous population, you know, growing economy, strategic geography, and 203 00:18:36.599 --> 00:18:42.079 they write this big you know, Indonesia is about to arrive article and then 204 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:48.960 you know washern's repeat. Someone does that same article a year later. Because 205 00:18:49.000 --> 00:18:59.160 Indonesia has some constraints on it, mostly self imposed, some demographic you know, 206 00:18:59.200 --> 00:19:03.039 they have hundreds of millions of people spread across seventeen thousand islands. Pretty 207 00:19:03.039 --> 00:19:07.519 hard to govern effectively outside kind of the capital region, in the in the 208 00:19:07.559 --> 00:19:15.160 main metropolitan centers. But it's it's a tough one because they are they're a 209 00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:18.480 leader within ausion. You know, they're traditionally kind of looked at as this 210 00:19:18.799 --> 00:19:22.920 I hesitate to use big brother, but sort of. You know, they 211 00:19:22.960 --> 00:19:30.559 are the largest kind of weightiest group in ausion by population, by economy, 212 00:19:30.599 --> 00:19:37.440 etc. But they don't exercise a lot of external leadership that you know, 213 00:19:37.680 --> 00:19:41.720 if you look all the way back to the beginning of the Non Aligned movement, 214 00:19:41.759 --> 00:19:45.960 you know that held in Bandung also in Indonesia, you know, traditionally 215 00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:49.480 a leader within the Non Aligned movement as well. Now we have security partners 216 00:19:49.519 --> 00:19:56.119 ships with them. We just finished the Indonesian led super Garuta Shield exercise. 217 00:19:56.480 --> 00:20:02.359 We conduct you know, the Navy's Carrot exercise with Indonesia. They run Komoto 218 00:20:02.480 --> 00:20:04.920 as well, which we're a part of, and any number of other security 219 00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:11.759 activities. But they are also very interested in not being part of a you 220 00:20:11.799 --> 00:20:17.039 know, a China directed security relationships, so they don't want to do anything 221 00:20:17.119 --> 00:20:22.359 anti China. They actually explicitly list themselves as not a claimant state in the 222 00:20:22.400 --> 00:20:26.759 South China Sea, which is an interesting bit of wordsmithing when you dig into 223 00:20:26.799 --> 00:20:33.079 it, because clearly they are China's claims within the nine dash line overlap Indonesia's 224 00:20:33.079 --> 00:20:37.759 easy near the in the in the New Tuna See and the Nintuna Islands. 225 00:20:38.440 --> 00:20:45.920 But Indonesia frames itself is not a claimant because it does not it does not 226 00:20:45.359 --> 00:20:48.480 low does it. It says that the Chinese claims are invalid, therefore it 227 00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:52.200 does not recognize them. Therefore there is no conflict. Therefore, you know, 228 00:20:52.240 --> 00:20:57.000 we don't have a disagreement, yea. So it's it's an interesting one 229 00:20:57.359 --> 00:21:00.839 because they have had their own run ins with the China Coast Guard up there. 230 00:21:00.240 --> 00:21:07.880 The China Coastguard has intervened in constabulary boardings and stopped the Indonesians from towing 231 00:21:07.119 --> 00:21:12.039 Chinese fishing vessels, ramming them until they broke free, and letting them escape. 232 00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:15.279 So they've had any number of faceoffs out there, which led to the 233 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:22.759 Indonesians renaming that area the North and the Tennessee and making their position a bit 234 00:21:22.759 --> 00:21:26.759 more clear. But Indonesia also has run hnds up there with you know, 235 00:21:26.839 --> 00:21:32.839 Vietnamese fishermen, with other you know, illegal fishermen from around asion. So 236 00:21:33.599 --> 00:21:36.079 they are very quick to point that out that it's not you know, for 237 00:21:36.119 --> 00:21:38.400 them, it's not just China. It is a big deal. But you 238 00:21:38.440 --> 00:21:45.359 know, they're they're not driving their foreign policy based on what China's up to, 239 00:21:45.759 --> 00:21:49.279 and they're also not rushing to get in bed with Washington or the Quad. 240 00:21:51.160 --> 00:21:55.200 They're usually one of the more skeptical parties on things like the Quad. 241 00:21:55.720 --> 00:22:02.079 They were very skeptical with Aucus. These were things that they did not particularly 242 00:22:02.119 --> 00:22:06.519 like. But they do have a close relationship with Australia, again a complicated 243 00:22:06.559 --> 00:22:12.119 one. So that's one place where in some cases it might be wise to 244 00:22:12.200 --> 00:22:19.440 kind of step back and work with our allies in Canberra to position ourselves appropriately 245 00:22:19.480 --> 00:22:30.119 with regard to Indonesia. When China does something interesting like this recent brand new 246 00:22:30.160 --> 00:22:33.480 map that came out with which claimed a whole lot of territory, I mean, 247 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:37.359 I know some countries that Philippines and others have already kind of reacted to 248 00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:45.359 it. But how does that affect these you know, the Ascon Nations and 249 00:22:45.480 --> 00:22:48.440 they had the kind of quad because China is pretty bold and they're and they're 250 00:22:51.079 --> 00:22:56.400 putting out such a ill thought out map. Yeah, you know, it's 251 00:22:56.400 --> 00:23:00.440 an interesting one because they're pretty much the number one trading partner for most of 252 00:23:00.440 --> 00:23:04.440 the region. And while you know, Philippines was very outspoken and others were 253 00:23:04.480 --> 00:23:11.359 as well, uh, you know, trade continues, interactions continue, positive 254 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:18.799 relations continue on other fronts. Most AUSION member states are pretty pragmatic and the 255 00:23:18.839 --> 00:23:23.559 way they approach China. You know, yes they have disagreements, yes they 256 00:23:23.559 --> 00:23:29.440 have problems, but they are still pursuing you know, economic utility in those 257 00:23:29.519 --> 00:23:33.960 areas where they can. We saw that to an exaggerated degree under the do 258 00:23:33.160 --> 00:23:38.839 Tertei presidency in Philippines. You know, a US ally that that you know, 259 00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:44.359 kind of huge, very close to Beijing for five years or on and 260 00:23:44.400 --> 00:23:48.759 off, attempting to get you know, higher levels of investment out of China, 261 00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:52.839 and it didn't really materialize. And now we kind of see Philippines swinging 262 00:23:52.880 --> 00:24:00.880 back the other way under the Marcus presidency. But they're you know, one 263 00:24:00.920 --> 00:24:07.160 of the mistakes that sometimes we can make is establishing this sort of coldwear paradigm, 264 00:24:07.200 --> 00:24:12.160 cold war paradigm, wherein we can just not talk to the Chinese or 265 00:24:12.200 --> 00:24:17.640 not trade with the Chinese, and that just doesn't work for anybody. We 266 00:24:17.720 --> 00:24:23.160 are too tightly interwoven. Still, despite all the talk of you know, 267 00:24:25.279 --> 00:24:29.480 decoupling or de risking or however you want to look at it, every country 268 00:24:29.480 --> 00:24:33.000 in the world is still tied to China. In some way, and you 269 00:24:33.039 --> 00:24:41.759 see that to a pretty exaggerated degree here in this region. The Indonesians often 270 00:24:41.799 --> 00:24:47.079 put it as most of these countries are trying to row between two reefs without 271 00:24:47.079 --> 00:24:51.799 getting too close to either, and they want to draw benefit from both relationships 272 00:24:51.799 --> 00:24:56.160 with the United States and from the Chinese without getting into a coalition with one 273 00:24:56.200 --> 00:25:00.920 against the other. Some of the countries have laws against you know, acting 274 00:25:00.960 --> 00:25:06.000 militarily against another state, you know, with a third state, the Vietnamese 275 00:25:06.559 --> 00:25:11.400 being one of the most marked examples of that. So yeah, it's pragmatic. 276 00:25:11.559 --> 00:25:15.319 You know, No they didn't like that map, but yes, they 277 00:25:15.359 --> 00:25:18.799 are going to continue to trade. They are going to continue to arrange military 278 00:25:18.799 --> 00:25:22.640 exercises with with the Chinese. They are going to continue to have high level, 279 00:25:22.599 --> 00:25:27.119 high level visits and interactions with the Chinese. At the same time in 280 00:25:27.200 --> 00:25:32.160 spite of all the challenges just you know, we hit the wavetops of the 281 00:25:32.240 --> 00:25:37.000 area and the as we talked about before, the political and the regional sensitivities. 282 00:25:37.799 --> 00:25:42.519 The quad itself has since two thousand and seven and a couple of trips 283 00:25:42.559 --> 00:25:48.440 here and there, it is you can see where going along that crawl walk 284 00:25:48.880 --> 00:25:52.400 run timeline where if you want to say, you know, the crawl was 285 00:25:52.440 --> 00:25:56.920 the response to the Boxing Day tsunami, and like things where you have humanitarians 286 00:25:57.079 --> 00:26:04.119 hadr humanitarian assistances response other of those you know, self power type of coordination 287 00:26:04.200 --> 00:26:11.440 and discussion issues going towards walk, like the maritime domain awareness or and as 288 00:26:11.480 --> 00:26:18.279 you pointed out quite a few times in the in the projects you'll put together 289 00:26:18.000 --> 00:26:23.559 the export of the P eight alpha, Australia flies it, we fly it, 290 00:26:25.279 --> 00:26:30.559 the Indians fly it. Maritime surveillance ties right into that, trying to 291 00:26:30.559 --> 00:26:37.960 build a mutual maritime domainness structure. And I think that if anything else, 292 00:26:38.000 --> 00:26:45.119 if you're looking for sensitivities, it's it's hard to really argue about what maritime 293 00:26:45.200 --> 00:26:52.119 surveillance and reconnaissance is and domain awareness that's just telling everybody what's out there, 294 00:26:52.400 --> 00:26:59.640 because a lot of the low level flashpoints in this area, whether you're talking 295 00:26:59.640 --> 00:27:04.200 about piracy or illegal fishing, it comes from that lack of maritime awareness. 296 00:27:04.440 --> 00:27:07.680 And then you know, you can go into the run part, which is 297 00:27:07.039 --> 00:27:11.720 some of the exercises they've been doing recently. But it seems like the core 298 00:27:11.799 --> 00:27:18.400 of what everybody's moving towards is that center part that that walk part with the 299 00:27:18.480 --> 00:27:25.799 quad to work towards the the achievable and probably the path of least potential drama. 300 00:27:25.920 --> 00:27:33.240 That's building that maritime domains, domains, that maritime domain awareness, structure 301 00:27:33.440 --> 00:27:37.119 and habit of working together. And of course that does beg the question, 302 00:27:37.720 --> 00:27:41.799 Yeah, how do you build that C two infrastructure? Yeah, that that's 303 00:27:41.799 --> 00:27:45.039 a that's a complicated one, even just on the P eight piece. If 304 00:27:45.079 --> 00:27:51.920 you're talking about real interoperability or now you know DD looking more at interchangeability, 305 00:27:52.839 --> 00:27:59.839 even just in terms of our link infrastructure, that's that's tough. But you 306 00:28:00.039 --> 00:28:03.519 know, I think navies. Navies have this unique quality which I'm I know 307 00:28:03.559 --> 00:28:07.240 you're both aware of and I'm sure your listeners are too, that we can 308 00:28:07.319 --> 00:28:10.240 kind of do whatever we want when we go out to see right, Like 309 00:28:10.319 --> 00:28:18.400 we're doing these things, and we're we're practicing low level stuff today, but 310 00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:19.880 we can kind of go over the horizon and do what we're gonna do. 311 00:28:21.000 --> 00:28:23.519 It's not an army exercise that happens kind of in full view of everyone. 312 00:28:23.519 --> 00:28:27.759 It's not an air force exercise. You're out on the high seas and you 313 00:28:27.799 --> 00:28:32.720 can just sort of practice whatever you need to practice, and these these things 314 00:28:32.759 --> 00:28:36.440 like exchanging information. Yes they're good for things like piracy, but yes they're 315 00:28:36.440 --> 00:28:41.759 also good they can translate into things like the intelligence support that we gave to 316 00:28:41.799 --> 00:28:45.279 the Indians when they were having their standoff at the line of actual control. 317 00:28:45.680 --> 00:28:52.079 You know, these these skills are they can be built at sea but deployed 318 00:28:52.079 --> 00:28:56.319 anywhere. And so I think we see a lot of this happening without the 319 00:28:56.400 --> 00:29:02.720 QUAD label, but within the QUAD. You know, we've seen Indian aircraft 320 00:29:02.799 --> 00:29:08.279 land at Cocos Keeling and the Australian the Australian Islands. We've seen Urph's landing 321 00:29:08.359 --> 00:29:12.839 at Port Blair and the Andon and Nicobar Islands. The you know, these 322 00:29:12.839 --> 00:29:18.119 things ten years ago wouldn't wouldn't have happened. So I agree we're somewhere in 323 00:29:18.160 --> 00:29:22.640 the middle. We have ways to go in terms of really operationalizing the QUAD, 324 00:29:23.960 --> 00:29:27.720 and I for one, think that we should be looking at it with 325 00:29:27.799 --> 00:29:36.119 at least a bit more seriousness in the security space, not just as a 326 00:29:36.160 --> 00:29:38.640 security assistance clearing house, which I think is also a valid use for it, 327 00:29:38.960 --> 00:29:44.160 but building these capabilities within it, and that that takes, as we've 328 00:29:44.200 --> 00:29:47.839 spelled out the report, you know, mapping out where do we have relationships 329 00:29:47.920 --> 00:29:52.559 and agreements. Where do we need agreements to kind of put more meat on 330 00:29:52.599 --> 00:29:56.599 that bone? And then, like you said, getting into the real nuts 331 00:29:56.599 --> 00:29:59.519 and bolts of Okay, now, how do we do it? How do 332 00:29:59.599 --> 00:30:02.160 we pas as? You know, if you want to pass a contact, 333 00:30:02.880 --> 00:30:07.519 a subsurface contact between pates American to Indian can you do that? If not, 334 00:30:07.839 --> 00:30:11.440 what do you need to do that? Are both parties willing to do 335 00:30:11.480 --> 00:30:17.279 that? So you're dealing with, you know, the tech piece, the 336 00:30:17.279 --> 00:30:21.279 operational piece, and the training as well as the political will to do all 337 00:30:21.319 --> 00:30:29.240 these things. And fortunately, you know, Beishing has been so unfriendly to 338 00:30:29.279 --> 00:30:32.799 its neighbors that they have sort of created the impetus for everyone to do this 339 00:30:32.839 --> 00:30:37.279 stuff. Things that would have been unthinkable and really politically unattractive ten years ago 340 00:30:37.839 --> 00:30:42.519 are suddenly, you know, in bounds because everyone has sort of woken up 341 00:30:44.480 --> 00:30:49.319 to what Beijing has been up to. Russia's invasion of Ukraine hasn't helped Beijing 342 00:30:49.480 --> 00:30:59.599 either, sort of reminding everyone that war happens. And it's kind of a 343 00:31:00.359 --> 00:31:03.680 It's an odd one to me because it's not like we've had a peaceful world 344 00:31:03.720 --> 00:31:08.720 for the last forty years. There have been plenty of wars, but you 345 00:31:08.759 --> 00:31:15.599 know, the invasion of Ukraine somehow has been uniquely galvanizing to a lot of 346 00:31:15.640 --> 00:31:21.839 countries, particularly in the Indo Pacific. And the one piece that I would 347 00:31:21.880 --> 00:31:26.839 touch on here is, you know this the idea or the perception of an 348 00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:33.720 anti China or a or an effort to what's the word I'm looking for, 349 00:31:33.839 --> 00:31:37.839 contain an effort to contain China, which is how Beijing tries to paint the 350 00:31:37.880 --> 00:31:42.000 Quad constantly. And if you look geographically, you know we we bound the 351 00:31:42.039 --> 00:31:47.200 Indo Pacific really the Quad States, you know, the India to you know, 352 00:31:47.319 --> 00:31:51.839 the United States and then India and the Australia to the north and south. 353 00:31:52.799 --> 00:31:56.720 I don't look at it as containment. You can't contain the Chinese against 354 00:31:56.880 --> 00:32:00.440 is not the Cold War. We are in are connected at a level that 355 00:32:00.519 --> 00:32:08.039 we never were with the Soviet Union. China certainly orders of magnitude more powerful 356 00:32:08.079 --> 00:32:15.000 than the Soviet Union was in terms of their economic weight. But what I 357 00:32:15.039 --> 00:32:21.480 do see as an effort to dilute Chinese influence, and that is something that 358 00:32:21.480 --> 00:32:27.559 I definitely agree with. I actually heard it put someone at a conference recently 359 00:32:27.559 --> 00:32:31.359 in Jakarta said, look, we're concerned, you know, things like the 360 00:32:31.440 --> 00:32:37.680 quad and aucust the US talking about security. We're concerned that you're putting too 361 00:32:37.759 --> 00:32:43.440 much chili in the laxa, which is like a soup kind of noodle dish 362 00:32:43.480 --> 00:32:46.839 that several countries in Southeast Asia argue about who you know, who owns it 363 00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:51.640 culturally, but said, look, we're worried that you're putting too much chili 364 00:32:51.680 --> 00:32:53.960 in and you can't take it out. Right, So if you kind of 365 00:32:54.759 --> 00:32:58.680 I guess we would say over egg the pudding, right, if you're if 366 00:32:58.720 --> 00:33:01.680 you put too much in, it's going to be imbalanced and we can't fix 367 00:33:01.759 --> 00:33:07.240 it. You can't take chili out. And I thought that was really interesting. 368 00:33:07.279 --> 00:33:09.519 It's an interesting way to put it. But I thought, you know 369 00:33:09.559 --> 00:33:15.319 what you could do if you have realized there's too much chili and I, 370 00:33:15.319 --> 00:33:19.079 I for one, would look at this situation as you know, Chinese influence 371 00:33:19.200 --> 00:33:21.960 in what we used to call the Asia Pacific or what soun still called the 372 00:33:21.960 --> 00:33:24.839 Asia Pacific it was too much. And so what we've done now is we've 373 00:33:24.880 --> 00:33:30.240 gotten a bigger bowl, right we have. We have expanded our bowl and 374 00:33:30.359 --> 00:33:37.279 deluded PRC influence by adding India, by pulling in other partners, and I 375 00:33:37.279 --> 00:33:40.160 think that's an effective way to look at it. We're not containing, we're 376 00:33:40.240 --> 00:33:46.200 not trying to necessarily constrain. We're just giving other countries options. We're bringing 377 00:33:46.200 --> 00:33:52.079 more players into the game so that it's not just the US standing against China 378 00:33:52.200 --> 00:33:58.200 and creating bilateral friction. You know, India is involved, and we're working 379 00:33:58.240 --> 00:34:02.279 more with a trilateral arrangement with Japan and South Korea. You know, European 380 00:34:02.319 --> 00:34:10.519 states are increasingly present in the Indo Pacific. It's it's multilateralizing this idea that 381 00:34:10.880 --> 00:34:15.519 you know, norms matter, international law matters. You know, the economic 382 00:34:15.559 --> 00:34:21.639 agreements that we've that we have under the WTO, they also matter. Commitment 383 00:34:21.719 --> 00:34:24.039 to human rights. We care about this stuff. And if it was just 384 00:34:24.159 --> 00:34:28.320 the US, people would sort of dismiss it, you know, oh, 385 00:34:28.440 --> 00:34:31.800 that's just Washington doing Washington things. But when it's everyone, you know, 386 00:34:31.800 --> 00:34:36.280 Beijing does have to sort of sit up and listen. And I think that's 387 00:34:36.320 --> 00:34:39.440 kind of where we're driving and that's I think been effective. I think the 388 00:34:39.440 --> 00:34:45.000 Biden administration has done well doing that. I think often China is its own 389 00:34:45.039 --> 00:34:51.519 worst enemy because they because of their paranoia, you know, they reveal Okay, 390 00:34:51.519 --> 00:34:53.760 we got this first island chain problem, and then we wanted to do 391 00:34:53.840 --> 00:34:57.039 this string of pearl saying well, everybody starts looking at that and going, 392 00:34:57.039 --> 00:35:02.039 well, wait a minute, that's you're your your first island chain and your 393 00:35:02.119 --> 00:35:09.119 nine dash line and your string of pearls are directly connected to our own safety. 394 00:35:10.559 --> 00:35:15.239 So uh, China's very unsubtle about this. I mean, they're just 395 00:35:15.320 --> 00:35:20.599 it's like they don't understand the effect of of these rather and like this new 396 00:35:20.639 --> 00:35:23.000 map, you know, these rather bold claims on the on the other players 397 00:35:23.079 --> 00:35:29.760 in the world. Yeah, it's interesting Beijing's can see on issues like this 398 00:35:30.519 --> 00:35:34.639 the self perception piece. You know, you have to assume that they have 399 00:35:34.800 --> 00:35:38.039 sufficient self perception, but it's almost just that they just don't care. And 400 00:35:38.400 --> 00:35:42.840 we've seen that actually in meetings in the region. You know, there's there's 401 00:35:42.840 --> 00:35:45.000 a quote, I believe it is the Chinese foreign minister at the time literally 402 00:35:45.039 --> 00:35:47.719 told a group of Southeast Asian states, Look, you are small states and 403 00:35:47.840 --> 00:35:52.559 China is a big country. You know, basically like this very mellion dialogue, 404 00:35:52.599 --> 00:35:55.119 like we're going to do what we want and you're going to go along 405 00:35:55.119 --> 00:35:59.760 because we're big and you're small. You know, I'm I'm smart, you're 406 00:35:59.800 --> 00:36:02.239 done. I'm big, you're small, and you're just gonna take it. 407 00:36:05.360 --> 00:36:09.000 And and the QUAD, you know, is trying to give those countries options 408 00:36:09.000 --> 00:36:13.360 and MDA is one of those things, you know, understanding what the Chinese 409 00:36:13.360 --> 00:36:20.880 fishing fleet is up to. AMTI has done excellent work in you know, 410 00:36:21.000 --> 00:36:24.599 highlighting to the region how how Beijing's island building campaign has gone, what they've 411 00:36:24.599 --> 00:36:29.800 done, and kind of the impacts that that has had. That's an incredible 412 00:36:29.840 --> 00:36:32.280 program that's really well received out here. You know, we're coming up on 413 00:36:32.280 --> 00:36:37.840 the anniversary of the she Obama Rose Garden statement when shij and Ping pledged not 414 00:36:37.880 --> 00:36:43.199 to militarize the South China Sea, and then shortly shortly after, you know, 415 00:36:43.280 --> 00:36:51.360 we see missiles and bombers and everything else deployed all across their island chain 416 00:36:51.400 --> 00:36:53.519 that they've built through the through the South China Sea. But that that's uh, 417 00:36:54.039 --> 00:37:00.519 the twenty five, So you know, there's in living memory we can 418 00:37:00.559 --> 00:37:07.920 just see time after time China's commitments aren't really worth the paper they're printed on, 419 00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:15.519 particularly where it comes to respect for other people's interests and sovereignty. Yeah, 420 00:37:15.559 --> 00:37:20.920 it is kind of funny, but it's in line with the Chinese imperial 421 00:37:20.960 --> 00:37:27.159 history before they had their issues century and a half ago. That's how they 422 00:37:27.239 --> 00:37:30.000 look at people. So it's kind of returning to the norm in some regards. 423 00:37:30.400 --> 00:37:36.000 And sometimes I try to do the best that I can, at least 424 00:37:36.119 --> 00:37:39.039 geographically or from what you could read on history to see things from the Chinese 425 00:37:39.079 --> 00:37:45.880 perspective. And there's a great map and the project that you worked on that 426 00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:50.360 outlined all the various exercises, and from my point of view, it's exactly 427 00:37:50.360 --> 00:37:54.440 what you wanted to want to see. This forward defense where along China's sea 428 00:37:54.480 --> 00:38:00.440 lines of communications and in the nations that are in here near abroad have a 429 00:38:00.440 --> 00:38:07.280 lot of quad quad minus exercises with those nations at sea that when you look 430 00:38:07.320 --> 00:38:13.079 strong, and the People's Republic China has to do the math in their head 431 00:38:13.719 --> 00:38:19.320 about what they can push and can't push. When you have strong exercises along 432 00:38:20.400 --> 00:38:25.000 with the nations around you together just to announce that they are together, but 433 00:38:25.119 --> 00:38:29.719 also that take place along the sea lines that you rely on for your oil 434 00:38:29.760 --> 00:38:37.360 and food, it's kind of encouraging. So you can see where the quad 435 00:38:37.920 --> 00:38:44.840 and the quad minus and the various bilateral relationships are responding. I would what 436 00:38:44.960 --> 00:38:49.800 I believe is the correct way to China's aggression of the last few years. 437 00:38:49.800 --> 00:38:52.079 I guess that kind of kicked off with the quasi humorous what was it, 438 00:38:52.119 --> 00:38:58.559 the wolf warrior diplomacy field of rakes they jogged across a few years ago. 439 00:38:59.039 --> 00:39:01.920 They kind of woke up a lot of people. So again, I think 440 00:39:01.960 --> 00:39:08.199 that if you're looking forward for non US, but US and like minded nations, 441 00:39:08.719 --> 00:39:14.840 are they they waking up and putting a good posture towards an expansion is 442 00:39:14.920 --> 00:39:19.679 PRC. I think it's there's some room for optimism there if we continue to 443 00:39:19.800 --> 00:39:27.519 nurture these relationships correctly. Yeah, I agree. And the great, the 444 00:39:27.559 --> 00:39:30.280 Great Corey Shaky was the first person I ever heard say this. But you 445 00:39:30.320 --> 00:39:34.519 know, you just you just don't need to foul your opponent when they're already 446 00:39:34.559 --> 00:39:37.639 going out of bounds. Right, we can play this the right way. 447 00:39:37.280 --> 00:39:43.039 We can play a solid game without really even needing to poke Beijing because they're 448 00:39:43.079 --> 00:39:49.599 going to do it themselves. The Communist Party of China cannot help, but 449 00:39:49.840 --> 00:39:55.360 bully and coerce they can't. They just seemingly can't figure out how to do 450 00:39:55.440 --> 00:40:00.960 a charm campaign, it is beyond the reach. Or if they do it, 451 00:40:01.599 --> 00:40:04.280 uh, you know, the next week, they'll punch you in the 452 00:40:04.320 --> 00:40:07.719 face. And they've done it, you know, for the love of Pete, 453 00:40:07.760 --> 00:40:12.039 I mean, you have. You know, one of their most negative 454 00:40:12.079 --> 00:40:17.159 relationships is with Sweet you know, like this whole staged thing about Chinese citizens 455 00:40:17.159 --> 00:40:22.599 being thrown out of hotels and the Chinese ambassador threatening people, and it's just 456 00:40:23.079 --> 00:40:28.920 it's bizarre. But I love it because you know, they're doing our job 457 00:40:29.000 --> 00:40:31.760 for us, and when we have trouble politically or maybe we have trouble finding 458 00:40:31.760 --> 00:40:37.440 a good direction, you know, they're not really doing themselves any favors. 459 00:40:37.519 --> 00:40:42.639 So they've helped us immensely over the last over the last decade to make this 460 00:40:42.719 --> 00:40:49.840 case. And and you know, they have squandered what could have been a 461 00:40:49.920 --> 00:40:54.239 lot of tailwind that they had, you know, in terms of global investment 462 00:40:54.320 --> 00:41:00.199 and being seen as this leader of the global South, and and they've they've 463 00:41:00.199 --> 00:41:04.000 blown it. And now you know, they're just increasingly threatening Taiwan. And 464 00:41:04.679 --> 00:41:08.679 while most countries don't want to get involved in that, everyone can see what's 465 00:41:08.679 --> 00:41:14.360 happening. Right. It's like, guys, they're threatening to invade and kill 466 00:41:14.480 --> 00:41:17.840 millions of people, Like just stop, Like you don't need to do this, 467 00:41:17.920 --> 00:41:21.599 We don't the globe, the world doesn't need this. You know, 468 00:41:21.599 --> 00:41:25.360 we're still trying to recover from COVID, We're trying to recover from kind of 469 00:41:25.400 --> 00:41:31.480 this economic slowdown. China's economy is slowing down, like can you just knock 470 00:41:31.519 --> 00:41:36.800 it off? And they can't, which is, you know, which is 471 00:41:36.800 --> 00:41:40.920 great for anyone trying to make the case for partnerships that don't involve the Chinese. 472 00:41:43.920 --> 00:41:45.679 Yeah, you know, I'm always reminded of when I was a kid 473 00:41:45.679 --> 00:41:49.880 and you get the lant when you're thirteen or fourteen, and suddenly one of 474 00:41:49.920 --> 00:41:53.320 the kids go through a gross spurt and he becomes huge and any and also 475 00:41:53.400 --> 00:41:57.400 you have he has two choices. I mean, he becomes a bully because 476 00:41:57.400 --> 00:42:00.679 he's now bigger than everybody else, or he you know kind of like, 477 00:42:00.840 --> 00:42:02.599 yeah, I'm big, but I'm still your your friend, and you know, 478 00:42:02.960 --> 00:42:07.039 I always you. China right right now is in that growth stage. 479 00:42:07.719 --> 00:42:08.840 I mean, we're we'll be on some of that now because it's been in 480 00:42:08.840 --> 00:42:13.639 a shrink. But you know, they they grew, they're very successful, 481 00:42:13.639 --> 00:42:17.159 They've got money, they're you know, they're billing as tremendous armed forces, 482 00:42:17.639 --> 00:42:22.320 and then they can't just go, well, I'm you know, I've got 483 00:42:22.360 --> 00:42:24.320 all this, but it's you know, there's no big deal. They've got 484 00:42:24.360 --> 00:42:28.159 they've got a bully, and they've got to they've got to send their their 485 00:42:28.159 --> 00:42:31.679 fishing fleets to to the Galapagos. They've got to send their fishing fleets to 486 00:42:32.119 --> 00:42:37.000 you know, steal all the Patagonian toothfish they can get off chili. So 487 00:42:37.519 --> 00:42:42.280 it is it is a remarkable, uh experience, just to watch the way 488 00:42:42.280 --> 00:42:45.039 they've they've acted. And I think you're right. I don't think they know 489 00:42:45.119 --> 00:42:49.679 because they've never they have never been told. They know they've been told they 490 00:42:49.679 --> 00:42:52.159 can't do it this way, but they don't really grasp why if you're big, 491 00:42:52.199 --> 00:42:55.559 you can't just throw your way around, uh, the way they're trying 492 00:42:55.599 --> 00:43:04.559 to do. And I think in some ways it's also highlighted how unique Washington's 493 00:43:04.599 --> 00:43:08.320 trajectory has been as a or the United States really as a global power that 494 00:43:08.400 --> 00:43:13.679 accepted constraints on itself and agreed, you know, after the Second World War 495 00:43:14.280 --> 00:43:19.199 two, limits on its own power for the good of everyone, and entered 496 00:43:19.239 --> 00:43:22.000 into these agreements, even things like arms control. You know, we we 497 00:43:22.039 --> 00:43:25.760 did these things. China doesn't do arms control. Uh. You know, 498 00:43:25.800 --> 00:43:32.039 they refused to even discuss the idea. They don't accept limitations on their power. 499 00:43:32.159 --> 00:43:37.079 They refuse to sign a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea 500 00:43:37.159 --> 00:43:43.800 with with ausion member states. They don't accept limits on their power, and 501 00:43:43.920 --> 00:43:49.920 they well, they want to be able to resort to their to that that 502 00:43:50.039 --> 00:43:54.400 power disparity whenever they can, and and that it doesn't work, and countries 503 00:43:54.440 --> 00:44:00.920 don't like it. It creates negative relationships. But they can't seemingly find another 504 00:44:00.960 --> 00:44:07.400 way. And I guess part of that probably goes to the philosophy of hijimping. 505 00:44:07.519 --> 00:44:12.079 And I think that's also why they're seeing a lot of economic problems at 506 00:44:12.079 --> 00:44:16.280 the moment. You know, you can't you can't fix what's wrong without reforming 507 00:44:16.320 --> 00:44:21.360 the system. Past leaders were able to do that, you know, huge 508 00:44:21.480 --> 00:44:25.079 huge economic leaps under Dung Chaoping, who opened things up and wanted to do 509 00:44:25.159 --> 00:44:30.519 things differently. Chi Jianping wants to take things back and do things from the 510 00:44:30.559 --> 00:44:36.519 center and top down. And you don't drive a competitive economy that way. 511 00:44:37.440 --> 00:44:40.840 It doesn't, it doesn't work. But again, his legitimacy is now tied 512 00:44:42.320 --> 00:44:45.400 to the system that he wants, which is this one that doesn't work. 513 00:44:45.519 --> 00:44:49.840 So you know, they've they've painted themselves into a corner now and I think 514 00:44:49.880 --> 00:44:53.920 we're seeing a lot of those chickens coming home to roost. I you had 515 00:44:53.920 --> 00:45:00.119 a really good piece in or in the Rocks on you know, removing the 516 00:45:00.880 --> 00:45:06.320 uh Sierra Madre and putting something else there. I had a Twitter post on, 517 00:45:06.639 --> 00:45:10.320 just have John Conrad drive a semi submersible oil rig out there. I've 518 00:45:10.320 --> 00:45:13.519 got a halo deck and all the rest. It would be a lot better 519 00:45:13.559 --> 00:45:17.039 off than wouldn't be worrying about sporing these Philippine marines out there, you know. 520 00:45:17.119 --> 00:45:24.519 But but the the Chinese and their efforts to claim that rock, if 521 00:45:25.039 --> 00:45:29.400 maybe it would be submerged rock, I mean, it has has their own 522 00:45:29.719 --> 00:45:34.880 you know, when they when they get caught from all the news media of 523 00:45:34.960 --> 00:45:40.840 the water cannons blasting the Filipino ships. Uh, you know that just looks 524 00:45:42.280 --> 00:45:45.679 I mean, it just looks thuggish. It is it is, and I 525 00:45:45.039 --> 00:45:47.440 don't I don't, you know, and then they try and deny all we 526 00:45:47.599 --> 00:45:51.599 you know, we we really didn't do it. But here you know, 527 00:45:51.840 --> 00:45:54.800 it's all over the internet exactly what they were doing. I just think they're 528 00:45:54.880 --> 00:46:00.719 sometimes incredibly clueless or the people at the lower levels don't don't understand. Well, 529 00:46:00.920 --> 00:46:04.119 you know, they're certainly not getting the message. No, we've got 530 00:46:04.119 --> 00:46:07.440 to back off on this kind of thing. Yeah, and and and it 531 00:46:07.440 --> 00:46:10.480 comes in waves, you know, you see this, the pressure around things 532 00:46:10.480 --> 00:46:15.400 like the Sierra Madre aren't new. Every once in a while they'll pull back 533 00:46:15.400 --> 00:46:19.159 and they'll you know, they'll put on a smiley face, but then it's 534 00:46:19.280 --> 00:46:22.000 right back to this when they want to put the pressure on. And I 535 00:46:22.000 --> 00:46:28.519 think they've done it now for so long that this Miley face doesn't doesn't cool 536 00:46:28.559 --> 00:46:34.480 things off anymore because everyone's just waiting for them to start again. And and 537 00:46:34.519 --> 00:46:40.239 that's kind of where we're at. It's just this relentless push on everyone around 538 00:46:40.239 --> 00:46:45.400 them. And you know, China historically has worried about insecurity and instability on 539 00:46:45.400 --> 00:46:49.559 its borders, and it has had it. You know, they have more 540 00:46:49.639 --> 00:46:55.280 international borders than I think any other country. Are they more shared borders. 541 00:46:57.480 --> 00:47:02.400 A lot of those were contested. You know, they had a huge issue 542 00:47:02.440 --> 00:47:07.920 with the Soviet Union at one point. You know, they almost I mean, 543 00:47:07.960 --> 00:47:15.039 they had people contemplating nuclear exchange. Pushing on on their neighbors is not 544 00:47:15.199 --> 00:47:20.639 new. It was a very maoist thing to do, and and they just 545 00:47:20.920 --> 00:47:24.199 they just seemingly can't stop doing it, you know, is second Thomas shoal 546 00:47:25.000 --> 00:47:30.239 does it matter to Beijing? Like could they just drop it? But but 547 00:47:30.320 --> 00:47:34.719 instead they have, you know, staked legitimacy on this, this contest over 548 00:47:34.760 --> 00:47:38.800 a low tide elevation with a World War two tank landing ship parked on it. 549 00:47:38.880 --> 00:47:45.840 You know, it's they're just the kings of small steaks, right, 550 00:47:45.920 --> 00:47:52.559 like, just every single interaction has to be this, this contest of wills, 551 00:47:52.639 --> 00:47:57.159 and they just can't let anything go. And now we're now we're here 552 00:47:57.360 --> 00:48:05.119 and and it's tents and nobody's enjoying it. And and now we're seeing this 553 00:48:05.159 --> 00:48:07.880 economic slowdown for Beijing, and so I think it's going to be a rough 554 00:48:07.119 --> 00:48:10.599 you know, a rough period for Beijing. Well they kind of they now 555 00:48:10.679 --> 00:48:15.880 have all the attention they didn't want. They don't have the economic cloud that 556 00:48:15.920 --> 00:48:21.480 they did, and it's going to be a hard a hard time, I 557 00:48:21.480 --> 00:48:25.079 think. And you know, we're seeing instability inside inside chij and Ping's government 558 00:48:25.800 --> 00:48:30.760 disappearing, the Foreign Minister and the Defense Minister rearranging the PLA's rocket force. 559 00:48:31.360 --> 00:48:37.239 You know, there's clearly something wrong, something is happening, but it's so 560 00:48:37.320 --> 00:48:42.639 opaque that, you know, I think anyone anyone's saying they know exactly what's 561 00:48:42.679 --> 00:48:45.480 happening. There is probably a bit over their skis. But it's clear that 562 00:48:45.559 --> 00:48:51.079 something's not right. And I think Beijing is straight up not having a good 563 00:48:51.079 --> 00:48:57.199 time right now, after a few decades of more often than not rightfully people 564 00:48:58.000 --> 00:49:00.800 looking at the US and going, you know, you can't stop being your 565 00:49:00.800 --> 00:49:05.920 own worst enemy. It is. It is instructive to see another large nation 566 00:49:06.760 --> 00:49:12.360 start to fit that category on their behavior with the neighbors and especially the water 567 00:49:12.400 --> 00:49:16.159 canon incident. Yes it's provocative, Yes it's quasi violent, but it's not 568 00:49:16.599 --> 00:49:21.760 well. One wouldn't think big enough of a spark to do anything larger. 569 00:49:22.280 --> 00:49:28.000 But it does add another stone in their backpack as they hike around the neighborhood 570 00:49:28.039 --> 00:49:35.320 trying to make friends. That creates opportunities either bilaterally quad minus or the other 571 00:49:35.400 --> 00:49:40.360 quad like we've been talking about today, for nobody really wants and I don't 572 00:49:40.400 --> 00:49:45.719 think anybody's really asking for a new NATO. There are a couple of people, 573 00:49:45.760 --> 00:49:52.360 but whatever. But there's something in between there and the next step that 574 00:49:52.400 --> 00:49:55.639 has a lot of possibility that not only can help us as we learn to 575 00:49:55.719 --> 00:50:00.400 work together in a security relationship, but also can tie the countries together, 576 00:50:00.519 --> 00:50:06.199 which gets broader tension, which is making money, and that is developing some 577 00:50:06.960 --> 00:50:15.920 logistics maintenance and even operate low level operations with these nations where we can do 578 00:50:16.079 --> 00:50:20.239 things with our ships. You start to see a little bit of this, 579 00:50:21.119 --> 00:50:24.320 not just in Australia, but also we do plenty in Japan, maybe doing 580 00:50:24.360 --> 00:50:29.280 a little bit more in India. We're starting to interact more with those nations 581 00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:32.039 not in the quad. When you look at where we were five years ago, 582 00:50:32.920 --> 00:50:38.280 where we are now, and if you just reasonably draw that line forward 583 00:50:38.360 --> 00:50:44.519 another five years, I don't think we're too far from having some significant logistics 584 00:50:45.079 --> 00:50:50.800 and maintenance arrangements with the nations in the area that draw people in both economically 585 00:50:50.920 --> 00:50:57.119 and their security people to work with us more as well. Yeah, I 586 00:50:57.159 --> 00:51:00.760 think, you know, looking at what Beijing has made possible, bowl is 587 00:51:00.800 --> 00:51:06.000 pretty impressive, and I agree if this is a trend that's going to keep 588 00:51:06.000 --> 00:51:08.039 going, you know, we're seeing things now that you wouldn't have imagined ten 589 00:51:08.119 --> 00:51:12.280 years ago, or people that did, you know, should have been buying 590 00:51:12.320 --> 00:51:20.719 lottery tickets. I am very encouraged by us getting some of our MSc ships 591 00:51:20.880 --> 00:51:27.840 into into Indian ports for mid voyage repair opportunities. I'd like to see us 592 00:51:27.880 --> 00:51:32.000 doing more of that in Australia. I know it's kind of it's a bit 593 00:51:32.039 --> 00:51:36.400 far when you start doing the time speed distance, but as you both well 594 00:51:36.440 --> 00:51:40.400 know, we are constrained on our own shippy hard capacity at home, even 595 00:51:40.400 --> 00:51:46.199 more so now that we've we've closed several for the seismic evaluations on the West 596 00:51:46.239 --> 00:51:50.760 Coast. But you know, our partners in India and Australia and Japan, 597 00:51:51.119 --> 00:51:57.519 they do have maritime infrastructure, some with more capacity than others. But we 598 00:51:57.519 --> 00:52:00.079 should be continuing to explore how we do that, and that's actually something I'm 599 00:52:00.079 --> 00:52:06.760 working on now. Have a forthcoming report from the US Studies Center that I 600 00:52:06.800 --> 00:52:09.960 was working on with regard to the US Australia relationship and how we can kind 601 00:52:10.000 --> 00:52:17.599 of expand things like shipbuilding, maritime logistics even down to things like spy maintenance. 602 00:52:17.840 --> 00:52:22.000 We want to get closer with the Australians on doing those things, and 603 00:52:22.079 --> 00:52:28.639 all this can happen within the Quad, not necessarily needing the Quad label on 604 00:52:28.719 --> 00:52:32.599 it. The inverse might be, you know how a Belton Road basically is 605 00:52:32.639 --> 00:52:37.400 everything that China does. You know, anything they want to call Belton Road, 606 00:52:37.400 --> 00:52:39.039 they just call it Belton Road. Oh we got a new infrastructure project, 607 00:52:39.079 --> 00:52:44.840 Yeah it's Belton Road. Hey we we built a you know, a 608 00:52:45.599 --> 00:52:49.920 community center, Yep, Belton Road. We can do whatever we want within 609 00:52:50.000 --> 00:52:52.920 the Quad. It doesn't have to necessarily be called a Quad initiative. But 610 00:52:53.000 --> 00:52:57.960 hey, these are Quad partners and we get our presidents together once a year, 611 00:52:58.719 --> 00:53:02.000 we get there deputies together, we talk about these things, we put 612 00:53:02.000 --> 00:53:07.239 out joint statements, we find areas for cooperation. We can kind of package 613 00:53:07.239 --> 00:53:13.119 whatever we want within that with that within that partnership. Yeah, I think 614 00:53:13.119 --> 00:53:16.920 that's a pretty important point because, you know, not just we we have, 615 00:53:17.159 --> 00:53:21.760 as you said, shipyard issues India. India is a place to work 616 00:53:21.800 --> 00:53:24.360 with that, but we also have Japan and other Remember of the Quad, 617 00:53:24.920 --> 00:53:30.880 we're working with Australia. I guess to to at least develop something we can 618 00:53:30.920 --> 00:53:35.000 do with the nuclear submarines when we kint them in place. But you know 619 00:53:35.000 --> 00:53:38.280 there are other entities out there. South Korea has got a tremendous state, 620 00:53:38.960 --> 00:53:44.840 heavily state supported ship building industry, and I don't you know, we are 621 00:53:44.880 --> 00:53:47.679 so high bound on having stuff done in the US sports we really need to 622 00:53:47.679 --> 00:53:54.400 take advantage and assist our allies out in that area with with some work for 623 00:53:54.480 --> 00:54:00.639 US and you know, get get things done where we're not necessarily trying to 624 00:54:00.639 --> 00:54:06.079 get it all done and insufficient facilities here in the US. And you know, 625 00:54:06.199 --> 00:54:08.199 Suvic Bay is still Suvic Bay, and I don't know what they've got 626 00:54:08.239 --> 00:54:12.239 going there right now, but I thought I read that there were some some 627 00:54:12.280 --> 00:54:22.760 new ship building business and maintenance business going back in there. Yeah, this 628 00:54:22.840 --> 00:54:28.639 is a you know that I guess that that debate rages on. But the 629 00:54:28.639 --> 00:54:32.480 the US Code restrictions on what we can do overseas, I think we could 630 00:54:34.079 --> 00:54:39.360 we would benefit from revisiting some of that or finding some ways to adjust that 631 00:54:39.480 --> 00:54:44.960 legislation and that statute, because you know, we're we're not going to fix 632 00:54:45.039 --> 00:54:49.480 our domestic maritime constraints anytime soon. You know, building a new shipyard doesn't 633 00:54:49.480 --> 00:54:53.320 happen overnight. Trying to catch up on twenty lost years of ship building doesn't 634 00:54:53.360 --> 00:54:58.400 happen overnight. The way that we can do that, the only way that 635 00:54:58.440 --> 00:55:00.280 I see, and i'd be curio is, uh, you know, to 636 00:55:00.360 --> 00:55:02.960 your thoughts on this, but the only way I see is that we start 637 00:55:02.960 --> 00:55:07.039 outsourcing it. That's not a perfect answer because we want, you know, 638 00:55:07.079 --> 00:55:10.880 domestic capacity, But if you want the ships and you want to get rid 639 00:55:10.920 --> 00:55:15.199 of our you know, thousands of thousands of days of maintenance backlog, we've 640 00:55:15.239 --> 00:55:19.320 got to start putting more ships in foreign ports to get it done. And 641 00:55:19.360 --> 00:55:22.119 we've got to start building holes in foreign ports if you ever want to get 642 00:55:22.159 --> 00:55:28.599 them, because we're just we're not getting it done at home. Yeah, 643 00:55:28.599 --> 00:55:32.800 the Europeans already do that with some of their construction. I believe Romania has 644 00:55:34.079 --> 00:55:37.480 a pretty good running business where they they'll do that. So, I mean, 645 00:55:37.519 --> 00:55:42.639 the president has been established. But we have had a really fast hour 646 00:55:42.800 --> 00:55:46.320 that we've used up of your your time today, Blake, thank you very 647 00:55:46.400 --> 00:55:51.320 much for coming on and talking about the quad and overrun the show page. 648 00:55:51.320 --> 00:55:53.679 We'll go ahead and have a link to your to the report that you worked 649 00:55:53.760 --> 00:55:58.119 on with a group that we've referenced a lot during the course of the show. 650 00:55:58.199 --> 00:56:00.920 So if the listeners are interested in that, please go over there and 651 00:56:00.920 --> 00:56:05.599 click the link. It's I think it's like eighty some odd pages. It's 652 00:56:05.599 --> 00:56:07.440 a good read though, because it's big fonts and not too many words on 653 00:56:07.480 --> 00:56:12.000 the page, so it's good for me. But you mentioned briefly you're working 654 00:56:12.039 --> 00:56:15.760 on some stuff. But if people wanted to keep track on you and what 655 00:56:15.880 --> 00:56:17.800 you're working on, where is a good place for them to keep an eye 656 00:56:17.800 --> 00:56:23.360 out and what can we expect from me next? So I usually keep it 657 00:56:23.440 --> 00:56:29.440 to keep it alive on Twitter still or x I suppose, still still holding 658 00:56:29.440 --> 00:56:36.559 out hope that that will continue. I am you mentioned you mentioned my recent 659 00:56:36.599 --> 00:56:39.920 piece on the Sierra Madre from More on the Rocks. I don't keep a 660 00:56:39.960 --> 00:56:44.920 website. I should one of these days I'll be a real person and do 661 00:56:44.960 --> 00:56:47.880 that. Twitter is usually the best. I do have that piece coming out 662 00:56:47.960 --> 00:56:55.079 next, another report length piece from USSC on US Australia maritime cooperation. That's 663 00:56:55.079 --> 00:57:01.760 probably my next big thing coming and then I'm gonna probably take October off because 664 00:57:02.599 --> 00:57:07.119 I am tired and uh and it's my birthday and I'm and I'm just gonna 665 00:57:07.119 --> 00:57:10.760 take October off. So you find me at the pool That's what I'll be 666 00:57:10.800 --> 00:57:16.119 working on purpose. Boys, A pleasure talking to you, Blake and good 667 00:57:16.159 --> 00:57:22.599 luck at the pools. Well, thanks for having me back always always a 668 00:57:22.679 --> 00:57:25.920 treat, and thank you everybody for joining us for another edition of mid Rats 669 00:57:25.920 --> 00:57:30.840 and until hope hopefully next time. I hope you have a great Navy day. 670 00:57:30.079 --> 00:57:42.760 Cheers, wrote Mike Maloney. Want to marry me and all leave this 671 00:57:42.960 --> 00:57:50.880 brand, become really all your being to blame, love to hold me silly, 672 00:57:52.079 --> 00:58:01.440 holding your of the name A long way. It's a long way to 673 00:58:04.480 --> 00:58:14.000 it's a long way to differately to the greenest gun. I love going by 674 00:58:14.760 --> 00:58:24.960 because well left Onwell, it's a long long way to differate. But my life