1 00:00:03,759 --> 00:00:13,439 Welcome to Fantasy Hockey Life, presented by fan Tracks, your source of information 2 00:00:13,439 --> 00:00:17,079 and analysis to help you win your fantasy hockey league. Fuck off, that's 3 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:23,320 a step on. Stay lot. Here's your hosts, Jesse Severer and Victor 4 00:00:23,399 --> 00:00:30,039 Nuno Fantasy Hockey Live. I am Justice Severe fan Tracks and joining me Victor 5 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:36,399 Nuno of Daubert Prospects. Victor, how you doing today? I'm doing awesome, 6 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:41,439 Jesse. Definitely looking forward to talk to one of our main prospect guys. 7 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,520 One of the things that we quote on just about every episode, the 8 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:51,759 hockey prospecting at NHL E data. It's it's great stuff. And definitely looking 9 00:00:51,799 --> 00:00:54,600 forward to hearing from Byron. And I'm looking forward to hearing from you. 10 00:00:54,679 --> 00:00:57,079 Jesse. How are you doing? Hey, I'm doing good, man, 11 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,600 I'm doing good. I agree. Byron beater Is is a good friend of 12 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,799 the show at this point. He's always got some stuff that we have been 13 00:01:04,079 --> 00:01:07,840 using on this show. Victory, I just got to ask you, man, 14 00:01:07,879 --> 00:01:11,680 We've been talking about this NHL draft a long time. You have been 15 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,159 thinking about it for months. You spent a whole weekend in Nashville living it 16 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:19,280 full time. We've done a whole bunch of episodes. Are you burned out 17 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,599 on this draft? Man? Are you just ready at this point to say, 18 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,959 Okay, let's get through a couple more episodes and then somebody wake me 19 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:29,280 when it's when it's Celebrini time, when it's time to celebrini, celebrate. 20 00:01:30,239 --> 00:01:34,159 Man, it's already celebrity time. We're already talking about gearing up for the 21 00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:38,040 Helenka Gretzky Tournament with Peter over at Dabar Prospects Report and all my colleagues over 22 00:01:38,079 --> 00:01:42,920 there at Dabar Prospects. We're already turning the page to the next draft class 23 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,640 and we will be looking at some of that. But no, I don't 24 00:01:45,719 --> 00:01:49,239 I don't tire of talking about this class, because first of all, it's 25 00:01:49,239 --> 00:01:52,799 a great class, and we're all really eager to see how they do and 26 00:01:52,799 --> 00:01:56,760 how things progress and how wrong we were about all these guys. So it's 27 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,920 definitely a good time, and there's always new angles and information to explore. 28 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:06,280 I don't think you could talk to enough people and exhaust how many different ways 29 00:02:06,319 --> 00:02:09,879 you could think about each prospect. So sometimes you hear different opinions and you're 30 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:13,400 like, I don't agree with that at all, and sometimes you hear something 31 00:02:13,439 --> 00:02:15,719 new and it really opens up your mind, and so I really enjoy that, 32 00:02:15,759 --> 00:02:17,560 and so that's what I like about it. So no, I'm not 33 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:21,639 tired of it, are you? Oh? No, man, I'm loving 34 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:23,520 it. I'm getting into it. And Victor and I for those who don't 35 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:29,280 know, Victor and I have are participated in a four sports startup draft right 36 00:02:29,319 --> 00:02:34,520 now doing that on the other side on my other podcast, Dynasty Sports Life, 37 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,800 and with a group of twenty five people, including many co owners, 38 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,479 in an eighteen team league. And yeah, Victor, he's over there chirping 39 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,800 me a little bit on some of my hockey picks because it's a salary league. 40 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,599 But I know you were dying for the prospect end of this draft to 41 00:02:46,599 --> 00:02:52,960 come up so that you can start popping some of these twenty threes. Yeah, 42 00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:55,879 your strategy so far appears to be just shovel money into the furnace because 43 00:02:55,960 --> 00:03:01,240 you went for some expensive guys, and I think we did our whole salary 44 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:06,479 cap Dynasty series. And I'm chirping you, but realistically, in the first 45 00:03:06,479 --> 00:03:08,960 few rounds, it doesn't really matter how expensive the guys are. But I 46 00:03:09,039 --> 00:03:14,400 am happy with the guys that I got who I think are similar, maybe 47 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,639 a little bit lower in tier, but way cheaper. So I think that 48 00:03:17,719 --> 00:03:23,319 I'll be able to get some pretty good guys later that maybe are a little 49 00:03:23,319 --> 00:03:25,520 bit more expensive. It's all just different ways to build a roster, but 50 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:30,719 it is a good time. I'm so far, I have recognized exactly four 51 00:03:30,759 --> 00:03:32,879 of our picks of the twelve, three of them were hockey players, and 52 00:03:34,199 --> 00:03:36,919 one of them was a San Francisco forty nine ers, So that's the only 53 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:39,719 way I knew Brandon Aiyuk's name. But other than that, I'm convinced that 54 00:03:39,719 --> 00:03:45,280 these people are drafting made up people that just have strange names. That's mine. 55 00:03:45,319 --> 00:03:49,120 I'm holding to that. That's fair enough. That's fair enough. I 56 00:03:49,159 --> 00:03:52,680 think that's a reasonable take. Yep, we're having fun over there. But 57 00:03:52,759 --> 00:03:55,080 right now we're having fun talking twenty three Drive. We'll never be tired of 58 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:59,319 it because we've got Byron Bader, and that's just making it better and better. 59 00:03:59,439 --> 00:04:13,319 Right after that, we are extremely pleased to welcome a good friend, 60 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,560 a guy who has cited very often on this show for his expertise in hockey 61 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:21,000 prospecting, no pun intended. It is Byron Bader, and how you doing 62 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:27,600 today, doing great? How are you guys doing very good? And you 63 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,560 might what do you mean knowing pun intend Byron? You have the website Hockey 64 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,439 Prospecting dot com. You were the man behind a lot of the things that 65 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,959 we like to cite on this show, in a lot of a lot of 66 00:04:36,959 --> 00:04:41,759 the wonderful comparisons that can come out of some of these quantitative things. But 67 00:04:41,959 --> 00:04:45,240 you, I imagine you've been pretty deep into this NHL draft this year, 68 00:04:45,319 --> 00:04:47,600 right, Yeah, this has been a good one. You always love when 69 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:54,279 the draft has tons of those high caliber prospects that look great in a model 70 00:04:54,319 --> 00:04:56,920 like mine. So, yeah, lots to talk about. And I've been 71 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,319 doing a lot of podcasts and a lot of radio hits and stuff talk about 72 00:05:00,319 --> 00:05:04,040 this draft because it's such a good deep draft for sure, that's tremendous. 73 00:05:04,079 --> 00:05:09,680 So our plan tonight is we're going to start out with the I guess it's 74 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,120 the depressing news. I don't know. We already behind the curtain. We 75 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,000 already started Byron out depressed before we started this episode. And so now we're 76 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,920 gonna ramp up, but we're gonna do it slowly. We can't jump straight 77 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,720 up to high speed. We're gonna start with talking about some of the guys 78 00:05:21,759 --> 00:05:25,560 who went a little bit higher than they should have, and then we're going 79 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,639 to talk about some of the guys who maybe went a little bit lower than 80 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,279 they should have according to Byron's assessment on it. And we'll start out with 81 00:05:32,319 --> 00:05:35,759 a guy very near the top of the draft, Leo Carlson, number two 82 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:42,120 overall to Anaheim, is somebody who perhaps you thought should have gone at maybe 83 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,519 one spot lower. It sounds like from your take on this, the order 84 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:47,680 of two and three did seem to be up in the air until very late 85 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,160 in the game between Anaheim and Columbus. And of course we'll get to the 86 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,639 guy at the Michigan Center who's on the other half of this a little bit 87 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,399 later in the show time will tell us which one was right. But it 88 00:05:59,439 --> 00:06:03,120 sounds like you might have you think Carlson maybe didn't quite deserve the spot. 89 00:06:03,199 --> 00:06:06,959 Tell us your take on Leo Carlson. Darn Yeah, this is not a 90 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,439 drastic take. I just thought he would go third. That was the consensus 91 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,399 was Fantility was going to be the A was obvious choice at second, and 92 00:06:16,439 --> 00:06:21,680 then he doesn't when he looked at Badard, obviously looks generational deservment of going 93 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,600 number one, and then Fantilly he also looks amazing, like he looks Pat 94 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,800 Lafontaine and lind Ross and stuff like that, like a player that I would 95 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,480 think would go a second overall type thing. And then Carlson he looks a 96 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:39,959 bit just a bit lower than that, not a very common profile where he 97 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:44,360 was in the euro circuit there, and he looked really good in his pre 98 00:06:44,439 --> 00:06:46,480 draft year and then he just didn't jump up like I was expecting in his 99 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,000 draft year. But there's still lots of runaway there. I'm sure he's gonna 100 00:06:50,079 --> 00:06:55,639 probably hit the NHL and be just fine. But yeah, I just how 101 00:06:55,680 --> 00:07:00,639 good Fantilly looked, and just the overall consensus and what the most everybody was 102 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,920 saying was Fentility's going to go second, which totally made sense, and it 103 00:07:02,959 --> 00:07:08,720 wasn't really until about thirty minutes before the draft starting, you've heard little rumblings 104 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,560 that maybe Carlson was going to be second. But yeah, it was a 105 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,399 little bit surprising. But I just expected Fentility to go second and then Carlson 106 00:07:15,399 --> 00:07:19,759 to go right after him, and it was the opposite. So it's definitely 107 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:24,120 a little bit of a shock for those of us who were there in Nashville, 108 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,639 but as you said, not terribly surprising. Let's move on to the 109 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,680 next guy that you thought went a little bit early, and that was Dmitri 110 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:35,600 Simashev. He went sixth overall to Arizona, first Russian taken, not Mitch 111 00:07:35,639 --> 00:07:39,879 Cough, which I know would have been your preference, and he was the 112 00:07:39,879 --> 00:07:44,399 second defenseman taken. He literally didn't score in the KHL, which makes it 113 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,800 hard to look good in your model when you don't score points. And his 114 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,560 MHL production was a little modest. It's my understanding that you give people a 115 00:07:51,639 --> 00:07:56,800 token five percent star potential if they don't have much correct me if I'm wrong 116 00:07:56,879 --> 00:08:00,360 there. So his NHL probably just comes out of the model, to be 117 00:08:00,399 --> 00:08:03,480 honest. That's funny that you would notice that, of course, but I 118 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,319 mean that's kind of like the default where the model starts or something. Yeah. 119 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:11,879 I do talk about these every week, so I I do notice that. 120 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,480 And just twenty two percent chance of being an NHLer, I think one 121 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,759 of the comps I see for him that seems maybe a reasonable Travis Anheim, 122 00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:22,920 but he doesn't have a lot of great ones, and so a lot of 123 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,160 us in the public scudding community really like sima Chev for his tools and some 124 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:30,079 of his potential, but he's certainly not there yet. And tell us why 125 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,600 you're a little skeptical on sima Chev. Yeah, when you look at him 126 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:35,080 like he like for a big guy, he can really cook, like he 127 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:39,960 can fly up the ice, and he's big and mean and all that stuff. 128 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:43,039 But yeah, when you look at players that look like this and have 129 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,559 this type of production. He's a bit older too. I think he's born 130 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:50,399 in February, and he's he has like a slightly above average equivalency for his 131 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,960 draft year, I would call it. So when you look at guys that 132 00:08:54,039 --> 00:09:01,799 look like that, like they very rarely turn into offensive star ours star defenseman 133 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,320 in the NHL. That's probably like a one out of fifteen, one out 134 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:09,840 of twenty type thing. So yeah, okay, he's a defenseman, and 135 00:09:09,919 --> 00:09:13,240 maybe you don't need a star out of a defenseman. But like drafting at 136 00:09:13,279 --> 00:09:16,519 sixth overall, like you probably want a guy that can run your first power 137 00:09:16,519 --> 00:09:22,960 play unit and be very good defensively, but also put up fifty or so 138 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:26,039 points a year, which I don't think you're getting with Simmaschev and like some 139 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:31,480 of the comparables that I've heard, like which was it resonates with me because 140 00:09:31,639 --> 00:09:35,519 Calgary guy is like a guy like Zadorov be a huge, mean Russian that 141 00:09:35,519 --> 00:09:39,919 can absolutely fly at the ice, so that you know if that's what you're 142 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,279 getting. Even if that's yeah, he get zador Off at sixth overall, 143 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:48,919 like that is a reach, Like a guy like that probably should have been 144 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,200 drafted at the back end of the teams, maybe into the twenties. Especially 145 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,159 with a draft as deep as this, you might get a player there, 146 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,879 but I'm not sure it's going to be what you're expecting there, just base 147 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,240 on thirty years of history and what tends to happen with players as older players 148 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,720 that look like that. Yeah, six was a bit of a reach for 149 00:10:05,799 --> 00:10:11,679 me, especially to be the first Russian taken ahead of Mishkov was. Yeah, 150 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:13,320 it was a bit of a shocker. For sure, He's probably taken 151 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:20,279 I would say ten to twenty spots ahead of kind of boy probably should have 152 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:28,240 been taken. Yeah, it seems like there's a bit of a gamble here 153 00:10:28,279 --> 00:10:31,519 on being able to put all these tools together and develop everything. If it 154 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:37,080 all goes perfectly then maybe you get a little bit more than what you're saying 155 00:10:37,159 --> 00:10:39,679 is the more reasonable projections. So it seems like a lot to bank on 156 00:10:39,799 --> 00:10:46,840 that you can really develop that perfectly, especially in Arizona. A yeah, 157 00:10:46,879 --> 00:10:50,080 for sure. A bit of a gamble for sure. Okay, Byron the 158 00:10:50,159 --> 00:10:54,919 nixt guy, we want to talk about Adam guy On. We haven't talked 159 00:10:54,039 --> 00:10:58,279 much about the twenty twenty three goalies in all of our draft review episodes, 160 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,240 but guy it was the first off the board, coming in a pick thirty 161 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:07,360 five, almost at the top of the second round, an overager sixty three 162 00:11:07,399 --> 00:11:09,759 headed from Minnesota to luth in the fall. He put up the highest say 163 00:11:09,759 --> 00:11:13,840 percentage of the world juniors last year and nine thirty six and fourth starts. 164 00:11:13,879 --> 00:11:16,159 I guess that's the kind of thing that takes you from undrafted to taking at 165 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:20,679 the top of the second round. Is it just that taking an overage goalie 166 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:26,919 this high was a reach considering Chicago's desperate need to stock talent around Connorbadard or 167 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,960 what an other reason would you have? What? What's your take on why 168 00:11:30,039 --> 00:11:35,120 guy On probably was drafted too high? Here? Yeah, you mentioned it 169 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:39,799 all. He's an overager, so he's older, than the rest of the 170 00:11:39,799 --> 00:11:46,000 crop being drafted. Really, and I don't mind taking overage goalies. I've 171 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:50,240 been very vocal about this, but I talk about it in terms of taking 172 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,879 like euro goalies that are on the pro circuit as overages. So he is 173 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,000 Slovakian, I think, and he came over to the US. He's playing 174 00:11:58,039 --> 00:12:03,320 for, believe, the NHL, which is like a second tier a third 175 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:11,000 tier US program, and his numbers are okay but nothing earth shattering, and 176 00:12:11,159 --> 00:12:13,720 he's an overage to be picked this early, like basically at the very top 177 00:12:13,879 --> 00:12:20,320 end of the first round seemed quite high for me, especially like you mentioned, 178 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:26,799 like the stuff that was still available in terms of skaters for a Chicago 179 00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:33,080 prospect system which needs to really load up their skaters and build it back up. 180 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,240 I don't know why they would take a goalie this early. He's going 181 00:12:37,279 --> 00:12:39,399 to be a project. If he makes it, he's going to be three 182 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:41,279 or four years out. I know you have to take these goalies and develop 183 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,399 them, but yeah, it seemed like a bit of a reach to me. 184 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:50,240 And just yeah, like just the talent that was available. Andrew Crystal 185 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:54,159 was available, who was apparently one of the Guard's best friends and he doesn't 186 00:12:54,159 --> 00:12:56,519 have the foot speed, but when you look at him, a guy like 187 00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,559 him in my model, like most of these guys make the NHL shell and 188 00:13:00,919 --> 00:13:03,720 over half of them turn into stars. So you could have had that just 189 00:13:03,759 --> 00:13:07,639 sitting there, and like the storylines just write themselves. Are just good pal 190 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:11,080 and somebody who actually has the talent. So, yeah, it was there's 191 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:15,279 so many factors. There's so many players still available at that point, and 192 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:16,799 then that's the first goalie off the board. It was a bit of a 193 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,960 bit of a shock to the system, and I thought Chicago would go with 194 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:24,960 a different prospect there for sure. Oh, you bring up such a good 195 00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:28,240 point. When Christall was falling, we were all playing in the table and 196 00:13:28,279 --> 00:13:33,639 hoping that Chicago would do that just like Columbus did. They got Fantilly and 197 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,720 they took his best friend, Gavin Brindley, and so we were thinking, 198 00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:39,919 that's so fun. But yeah, I didn't know that that's very cool. 199 00:13:39,639 --> 00:13:43,759 Yeah, yeah, And I realized that Brindley. That might have been a 200 00:13:43,759 --> 00:13:48,759 little early for Brindley, but because their pals and he's he's in that range, 201 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,879 it seemed like why not, right, Yeah, No, And when 202 00:13:50,919 --> 00:13:54,360 they took Brindley, like I liked him, Like I had him ranked right 203 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:58,480 around that spot, so I don't think that was too far over reach either. 204 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,840 But yeah, like it's the stuff that writes itself, like when you 205 00:14:01,879 --> 00:14:07,200 know Crystal was still there, I was tweeting about Cavalier and Brad Richards, 206 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,879 like this is exact situation happened when Macavalier was drafted. I think in ninety 207 00:14:11,919 --> 00:14:16,519 eight he played with Brad Richards on Ramouski and I think he even suggested to 208 00:14:16,519 --> 00:14:20,399 the team that they should look at this guy, and they took Brad Richards 209 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:24,360 in the third round and they both end up as basically like superstars for Tampa, 210 00:14:24,559 --> 00:14:26,080 winning them a Cup essentially, Like it could have been that type of 211 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:30,480 moment, Like that's how Brad Richards looked in the model as well, Like 212 00:14:30,559 --> 00:14:33,039 he looked really good, and I'm sure there was stuff about his size and 213 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:37,720 skating or whatever, but you could have that with Crystal and it would have 214 00:14:37,759 --> 00:14:41,840 been really cool. So missed moment all around for sure. And speaking of 215 00:14:41,879 --> 00:14:46,039 missed moments, I know you tweeted about what Arizona could have done with their 216 00:14:46,039 --> 00:14:50,559 picks and didn't and instead of who they could have had, they took some 217 00:14:50,679 --> 00:14:54,519 of Chevan Danil Boot with their second pick, and it was very clear because 218 00:14:54,519 --> 00:14:58,279 they drafted a large goalie with their third pick. But it's very clear they 219 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,679 were going for size and they went rush in Russian, which was interesting back 220 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,480 to back and Boot, so he's an interesting guy. He had two goals 221 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,679 fifteen and fifteen games with Locomotive in the KHL and fifteen goals eleven assists in 222 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:16,120 twenty six MHL games. Goes thirteenth overall to Arizona. He's huge, he's 223 00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:18,960 six five two or three, but he doesn't really play like a super big 224 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:24,960 manner imposing physical presence. His star potential just at fourteen percent fifty fifty chance 225 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,320 of making the NHL. Most of his comps are average producers, like a 226 00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:33,240 Daniel Sprong type. So tell us why you think Daniel Boot might have been 227 00:15:33,279 --> 00:15:37,200 a reach and maybe tell them what you come up with some alternate scenarios that 228 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:41,960 could have set up Arizona for years to come. Yeah. I like Boot, 229 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:46,399 like the size, and he's got decent production. In his draft yere. 230 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,480 In his pre draft yere, he didn't really jump up the level. 231 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,320 He remained at the same level, which is typical of these players. That 232 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:56,200 don't really hit that next level and turn into stars. Really, So yeah, 233 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,480 I liked him, but more of like but picking the twenties and so 234 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:04,240 that was just taken a good ten spots ahead of probably where I would have 235 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,639 taken him, especially again in this deep draft. Yeah, guys that look 236 00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:12,480 like this from the forward side, like he's a forward version of simashevin Away. 237 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,639 These guys rarely turn into stars, like once every four or five years, 238 00:16:15,679 --> 00:16:18,519 you're going to get a star out of these guys. And there's a 239 00:16:18,519 --> 00:16:22,639 lot that look like this. If you expanded across all the different leagues and 240 00:16:22,679 --> 00:16:26,639 stuff like, there's always four or five two upwards the ten guides that look 241 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,440 like this that are drafted every year, and not a lot of them turn 242 00:16:30,519 --> 00:16:33,000 into stars. If you're drafted, not a very high ceiling, I would 243 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:38,840 say, especially your two first round picks. There's not a lot of star 244 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,480 ceiling, I would say there. So that was my concern with Boot. 245 00:16:42,559 --> 00:16:47,480 But yeah, the alternate universe that I was looking at, like if they 246 00:16:47,559 --> 00:16:51,399 walked up to the plate at six overall and took Mishkov, whether or not 247 00:16:51,399 --> 00:16:52,960 he would have gone there, and no, what all the backstories are with 248 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,840 who he agreed to meet with and all that type of stuff. But basically 249 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,559 in Mishkov and we'll talk about him a little bit later, you're getting like 250 00:17:00,559 --> 00:17:04,880 a certain near a certain superstar out of him. And then with their next 251 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,480 pick, they could have got Zach Benson, which I mean that would have 252 00:17:10,079 --> 00:17:12,480 he looks fantastic to talk about him later too, But you could have had 253 00:17:12,519 --> 00:17:18,680 those two like star pieces that very likely both turn into stars, and that 254 00:17:18,759 --> 00:17:21,759 sets you up for the next decade, right. So instead, they've got 255 00:17:21,759 --> 00:17:26,160 these two Russian projects that if they do hit exactly as they're hoping that they 256 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,640 do, like, it's going to take years and years, Like you're probably 257 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:33,519 looking at at least five or six years if they hit their absolute maximum potential 258 00:17:33,799 --> 00:17:41,400 of whatever they think that is. These guys don't tend to rapidly evolve, 259 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:45,240 and by the next year they're doubling their point totals and they're ready for the 260 00:17:45,319 --> 00:17:48,799 NHL type thing. It's going to be a project with both of them, 261 00:17:48,799 --> 00:17:52,160 and I don't think that, certainly both of them. I don't think they're 262 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:57,279 going to hit these massive ceilings that maybe Arizona sees from them, maybe one 263 00:17:57,319 --> 00:18:02,559 of them does, Probably both don't quite get there, I would say, 264 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:07,359 and don't hit that ceiling that they think that they can hit. So just 265 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:11,240 meet us in Houston, Daniel. We'll be ready for you three or four 266 00:18:11,279 --> 00:18:15,359 years from now. Nate Danielson, Boy, and Nate Danielson has come up 267 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,599 a lot because he is probably the most common answer to the question who among 268 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:23,160 the lottery teams reached for a player or who went too early. I think 269 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:27,079 this is the fourth straight episode where we puzzled over this. It really just 270 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:32,559 has been that puzzling of a pick. A tall Senterman Centerman Danielson is for 271 00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:36,599 the Brandon Wheat Kings who went at pick nine to the Detroit Red Wings. 272 00:18:36,599 --> 00:18:38,720 He posted more than a point per game for the second year in the WHL. 273 00:18:40,079 --> 00:18:42,160 He became the captain for the team. This year wasn't a very good 274 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:47,519 team in terms of the record, but still, when should Danielson have gone? 275 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:52,720 And how seriously do we have to take the Stevie Y factor of taking 276 00:18:52,759 --> 00:18:56,960 these picks that surprise some of us in the first round and usually turn out 277 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,240 to be a little bit better than we expect. Had a similar story to 278 00:19:03,079 --> 00:19:07,440 Boot in terms of how he looks like that pretty good production of his pre 279 00:19:07,559 --> 00:19:11,640 draft year and then doesn't really go up a level in his draft year. 280 00:19:11,079 --> 00:19:15,519 A bit of an older player probably would have. Yeah, I probably would 281 00:19:15,559 --> 00:19:21,400 have taken him in the twenties to twenty five slot would have been very reasonable 282 00:19:21,599 --> 00:19:25,079 for me. Again, he's jumping up over ten spots here, and yeah, 283 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,920 Detroit kind of has this reputation for taking these guys earlier, but they 284 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:33,000 normally do it with Europeans, so it's a bit odd that they go for 285 00:19:33,519 --> 00:19:40,240 the Hler that's like completely the Cider and Casper and Edmondson was maybe a bit 286 00:19:40,319 --> 00:19:42,279 early, but probably right around where he's supposed to go. Lucas Raymond like 287 00:19:42,319 --> 00:19:45,839 these they're all Europeans, so then to do it again, but now you're 288 00:19:45,839 --> 00:19:51,720 dipping into the chl market. Yeah, I worked out with Cider and people 289 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:56,119 are really high on Casper. I don't know if he's going to be quite 290 00:19:56,279 --> 00:19:59,880 what people think he's going to be, but they're doing it over and over 291 00:20:00,039 --> 00:20:04,480 and their system like you can only hit on so many of those kind of 292 00:20:04,519 --> 00:20:11,000 reaches a year after years, So walking away from these guys that are already 293 00:20:11,039 --> 00:20:15,920 showing like certain abilities that they could be the next star or the next superstar 294 00:20:15,079 --> 00:20:19,279 for the red wings and kind of banking on Oh, we're going with more 295 00:20:19,279 --> 00:20:23,039 of a two way skill set and we're going to helpfully develop them into these 296 00:20:23,079 --> 00:20:27,759 like perfect specimens. Yeah, you can only win at the lottery so many 297 00:20:27,799 --> 00:20:30,039 times that I don't know if it's going to work out every time like this. 298 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,039 Yeah, it's been interesting. Like I'm a big Stevie y guys that 299 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,000 was my favorite growing up and stuff. But yeah, the picks have been 300 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:41,160 they're shying away from like these like obvious star picks, and it's focusing on 301 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:45,519 this type of player that they're looking for, and I'm curious where it goes. 302 00:20:45,559 --> 00:20:48,480 And in ten years if they see something different and they hit on a 303 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,400 lot of these guys and they're like they get like a lot of stars out 304 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,279 of these guys that don't look like the prototypical star from a model like mine, 305 00:20:56,519 --> 00:21:00,920 or if in ten years you look back and it's all we could have 306 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:04,079 had this guy, but we chose this guy ten spots ahead of where he 307 00:21:04,079 --> 00:21:08,559 should have gone and they didn't really work out as we were expecting type thing. 308 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,200 They will be interesting case study to look back on for ten years from 309 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:18,559 now, for sure. Yeah, keep reaching so often you're gonna pull something, 310 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,039 Stevie. Why so gotta be careful. All right, let's move on 311 00:21:22,079 --> 00:21:26,799 to the next guy. David Reinbacher went fifth overall to Montreal. That Kerry 312 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:32,359 Price moment was difficult to watch. It seemed like even he was confused why 313 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:37,720 they were taking the big Austrian defenseman. He does have a really high floored, 314 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,079 good size, He's a right shot, he's a great skater, had 315 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,279 pretty good production in the Swiss League, which I know has a pretty high 316 00:21:44,279 --> 00:21:48,000 equivalence. He looked good at the World Juniors. You have him at a 317 00:21:48,039 --> 00:21:51,839 thirty six percent chance of being a star and seventy two percent chance of being 318 00:21:51,839 --> 00:21:55,400 an NHLA. There's a lot of star comps here. You've got a little 319 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:59,400 bit lower one and Ivan pro Rov Headman and Morgan Riley there. Why do 320 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,960 you think that montre all left so much talent on the board or maybe was 321 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:07,079 there there's better options there? Would you think about this pick? Yeah? 322 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,079 I mean that one's more of a specific to this draft, Like most drafts, 323 00:22:11,079 --> 00:22:14,920 if you're getting a pick that looks like that, like he was by 324 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:19,759 the scouts consensus, the best to way d option out there, and when 325 00:22:19,759 --> 00:22:23,200 the model he looks pretty good as well. Most drafts, getting him at 326 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:29,720 fifth overall would be totally fine, like you'd be or even you'd almost be 327 00:22:29,799 --> 00:22:32,599 like lucky to get something like that at fifth overall. But it was just 328 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:37,000 this draft with obviously Mishkov sitting there and then you have Benson, you have 329 00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:42,039 all these guys still there, and then you go with Ryan Backer at five. 330 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:47,119 That was the only thing is there was a couple big star pieces that 331 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:51,240 were there that Montreal could have had and said they went with the defenders. 332 00:22:51,319 --> 00:22:55,680 Yeah, I mean it's lower or he's just taken higher than I was expecting, 333 00:22:56,279 --> 00:22:59,400 and probably that I would have liked. But he's still a really good 334 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,119 looking prospered and in most years like it would be fine to take him at 335 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,279 five years, just because this was such a deep draft and there was those 336 00:23:06,279 --> 00:23:08,839 big pieces still left on the board that yeah, I probably would have liked 337 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:15,480 them to go with one of those high potential forward pieces. So East and 338 00:23:15,519 --> 00:23:21,880 Colin of the now the Toronto maple leaves five ten London Nights Centerman, who 339 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:26,000 had the misfortune of being drafted above his perceived predact value into the insanity that 340 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,759 is the Toronto media market. He put up over point per game on his 341 00:23:30,799 --> 00:23:33,680 team's run to the OHL Finals this year. So there were certainly some good 342 00:23:33,759 --> 00:23:37,680 accomplishments, some good vibes coming in to his draft year. To the end 343 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,720 of that draft year, where do you assess that he should have been drafted 344 00:23:41,759 --> 00:23:45,440 and was there perhaps someone else you would have had in mind for the leaves 345 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:52,400 there? Yeah, you look at his profile on the model, like two 346 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:57,839 NHLLER probability right now, six percent star probability. A lot of these guys 347 00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:03,359 miss, and there was so much stuff on the board at this point. 348 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,960 And the other thing, he's decently young, he's born in May. But 349 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,240 he's also like smaller, like he's five to ten, which is funny because 350 00:24:11,839 --> 00:24:17,119 teams stay away from small guys left and right throughout the draft. Yet this 351 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,160 guy I think was supposed to be He was ranked maybe at the back end 352 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,960 of the second into the third round, and you'd jump up and you'd take 353 00:24:22,039 --> 00:24:26,960 him. And he's like one of these smaller guys that doesn't look overly great 354 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:32,920 like most time, like the small elite ones I'm all over because they're gonna 355 00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:37,160 they're gonna get drafted much later than they should. But this is the opposite 356 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:42,480 case where he he's not outscoring his peers to the degree that you'd probably want 357 00:24:42,519 --> 00:24:47,119 from a first round pick, especially a smaller first round pick. So yeah, 358 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:48,400 that one was a bit of a surprise when that one came across. 359 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:52,519 A bit of a reach for sure, who would I have taken there? 360 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,079 Crystal was still there, Guyayev was still there. So yeah, I'm just 361 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,200 not sure what the angle was with this pick and what they're hoping to get 362 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,119 out of it. But yeah, it's interesting when that one popped up on 363 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,400 the board, for sure, And I think that was the consensus sort of 364 00:25:07,559 --> 00:25:12,319 reaction when we all saw it, Like even the panel was like scrambling to 365 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,519 get information on him because they weren't expecting him to get picked at that point. 366 00:25:15,599 --> 00:25:18,880 Yeah, a bit of a surprise choice for True Living's first draft pick 367 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,880 ever. With the main police, all right, let's take a brief break, 368 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:42,359 come back and talk about the flip side of this conversation. Back and 369 00:25:42,759 --> 00:25:47,400 we gave the bad news some guys who maybe went a little early, but 370 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,839 let's talk about some guys who slipped a little farther than they should have, 371 00:25:51,079 --> 00:25:55,839 or people who may turn out to be great values according to your assessment here 372 00:25:56,279 --> 00:25:59,240 Byron And first of all, we talked about the other side of this, 373 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:03,640 Adam fan Tilly versus Leo Carlson. On the Fantilly side of this, the 374 00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:08,880 centiment from Michigan was thought for months to be a slam dunk behind Connor Bdard 375 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,960 and the Jackets must have sprinted to the podium to take Fantilly when they saw 376 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,160 he slipped there. And he joins an improving roster where he certainly could become 377 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,119 the center one in not too many years. Boone Jenner is not the level 378 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,960 of impediment that some teams that you know that you have if you're going to 379 00:26:26,039 --> 00:26:29,039 Jack Hughes's team, let's put it that way. This is the flip side 380 00:26:29,039 --> 00:26:32,200 of that coin. But what are some good things you would say about Adam 381 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:36,920 Fantilly that maybe haven't been said yet. Yeah, I think it's probably all 382 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,920 being said at this point. But yeah, like center with good size and 383 00:26:41,039 --> 00:26:48,279 like massive almost elite outlier production. He's not quite at that generational profile of 384 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,720 a Bdard or Michco. But he's basically like the one step below that I 385 00:26:52,759 --> 00:26:56,440 would call that I mentioned it before, but like compares with guys like Lynn 386 00:26:56,559 --> 00:27:02,119 Ross and Pat Lafontaine alex Ander Daiglo, which is a miss on that part, 387 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:04,440 but I was more Daglo, I think, than his actual talent, 388 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,200 and then a newer guy like Marco Rossie who were still waiting and to see 389 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,839 what he turns into. But he basically has everything, like putting up numbers 390 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:18,079 in the NCAA that we haven't seen since Jack Eichel and Paul Korea in their 391 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,960 draft year type thing. Yeah, so typically a player that looks like this, 392 00:27:22,039 --> 00:27:25,599 like you'd be pretty excited to get that type of player at first overall 393 00:27:26,039 --> 00:27:30,119 on most any given a year, to get that type of talent at third 394 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,400 overall is almost unheard of. So yeah, I think he's gonna fit really 395 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,720 well with Columbus and like you said, like probably take over that one C 396 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,039 spot with Goodreau pretty fast. If not this year, I could certainly see 397 00:27:42,039 --> 00:27:45,640 it by his second year type thing. But yeah, I think he's gonna 398 00:27:45,839 --> 00:27:48,200 I think he's gonna make the NHL right away, and I think he's gonna 399 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:56,599 almost surprise people with how immediately good he is. That's my expectation. He's 400 00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:03,039 going to be even better than you think type thing. Speaking of better than 401 00:28:03,079 --> 00:28:06,200 you might think matt Vey. Mitchkoff is the next guy we're going to talk 402 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:11,720 about. Goes seventh overall to Philly. The numbers are just ridiculous. On 403 00:28:11,759 --> 00:28:17,200 our previous podcast, I talked about how he has the best draft eligible KHL 404 00:28:17,559 --> 00:28:22,400 scoring point pace. The only one who scored more than him was Tarasenko and 405 00:28:22,599 --> 00:28:26,160 basically any other great Russian you can think of, Mitchkoff did better in this 406 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:30,240 season. And when you look at his hockey prospecting comps, they're literally all 407 00:28:30,319 --> 00:28:33,759 NHL superstars or Hall of famers. And what is there to say, by 408 00:28:33,839 --> 00:28:37,079 or another than how did six teams pass on matt Vey Mitchkoff and how much 409 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,440 will they regret it in the coming years. Yeah, and I don't know 410 00:28:41,559 --> 00:28:47,200 all the backstories of what happened there, but yeah, he's got that generational 411 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,279 profile. It's almost identical to Badar in a different ways, coming from a 412 00:28:51,279 --> 00:28:53,920 different league. But when you equate everything, you normalize all the data like 413 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,279 we do in hockey prospecting, he looks that same way. And when you 414 00:28:57,279 --> 00:29:02,000 look at every single players ever picked that whether it come from the CHL or 415 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:07,319 to come from Europe or whatever, they've all been point per game or more 416 00:29:07,359 --> 00:29:10,839 superstars. So not even though you might get like a fifty sixty point guy 417 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:14,039 to this, every single one who's looked at like again, there's only I 418 00:29:14,039 --> 00:29:18,480 don't know, seven or eight of them or ten maybe over the course of 419 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,640 forty years, every single one has turned into a point per game or more 420 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:27,759 superstars. So to pass on that, even if there's some uncertainty there, 421 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:32,920 there's basically no way you're going to be able to beat that out with the 422 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:38,000 player you've chosen, essentially from basically the badard pick. Even if we go 423 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,599 Carlson fantilly like pass that, there's no way you're going to be able to 424 00:29:41,599 --> 00:29:45,359 beat that out in my mind. So, yeah, that's pretty surprising that 425 00:29:45,559 --> 00:29:49,160 that he dropped that far, and especially he wasn't even the first Russian taken. 426 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,880 So I think some of those teams are going to be kicking themselves for 427 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:59,319 sure. Yeah, when people say that Matt, they Mitchkoff might be better 428 00:29:59,359 --> 00:30:02,519 than we amag And I always think back to that Han solo line from Star 429 00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:04,160 Wars. I don't know, I can imagine quite a bit. Listen, 430 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,799 if you would rescuer, the reward would be what, well, more wealth 431 00:30:08,799 --> 00:30:12,000 than you can imagine I don't know, I can imagine quite a bit. 432 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:17,920 Let's talk about Mickael Glayev. He is a guy you've already mentioned as perhaps 433 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,880 better than he was drafted, or a guy who hung around until a little 434 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,640 bit later than he should have. Near the end of round one, Colorado 435 00:30:26,799 --> 00:30:30,200 snagged this defenseman out of the KHL. As usual for these situations, he 436 00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:33,400 got very limited exposure in the cave, but a lot of run in the 437 00:30:33,519 --> 00:30:38,960 MHL. More than a point per game for Amski yastra B is a pretty 438 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:44,480 great line. Actually only five ten, which certainly doesn't give him a leg 439 00:30:44,559 --> 00:30:48,039 up, but he has a decent defensive reputation from reading some of the scouting 440 00:30:48,079 --> 00:30:52,559 reports a scouting EP the EP guy called him a discount Simaschev. I thought 441 00:30:52,559 --> 00:30:56,759 that was an interesting phrasing. Why do you think Glayev deserved to go higher 442 00:30:56,759 --> 00:30:59,359 than he did? And what kind of a ceiling do you see with this 443 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,640 prospect? Yeah, when you look at he has a very rare profile in 444 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,200 the model. Not a lot look like that. There's maybe five or six 445 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:11,079 of them, and they've basically all made the NHL. They've all made two 446 00:31:11,119 --> 00:31:15,319 hundred games essentially, and most of them turn into stars. So that's what 447 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,440 you're passing up by letting Colorado walk up to the podium and take him with 448 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,559 whatever it was the last or second last pick. He's five ten, say 449 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,880 he's a defenseman, so that's gonna downgrade him right there. But yeah, 450 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,839 like the production is just off the wall. I remember I was reading the 451 00:31:30,839 --> 00:31:34,000 EP scouting report there too, and there's one part where they're talking about because 452 00:31:34,079 --> 00:31:37,160 if you've watched him, like he can just absolutely fly, like just cook 453 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:41,880 through the neutral zone and just create stuff out of nothing, And they talked 454 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,599 about how sometimes he's inconsistent and they want to see more out of him, 455 00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:48,680 which is funny because if you look at like his production the way I do 456 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:53,680 in the model, like he's basically in like the ninety nine point five percentile, 457 00:31:53,920 --> 00:32:00,759 Like what how much more is there for a pretty young guy to do 458 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:04,079 in his draft here? Which is interesting. It's interesting that they said that 459 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,640 because if there's more to unlock there than good, heavens, like, what 460 00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:10,359 is this guy going to be? Yeah, like he's Yeah, from what 461 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:14,519 you read, it sounds like he's okay defensively maybe not great, but like 462 00:32:14,559 --> 00:32:17,359 the way he can move, like he's very reminds me a lot the way 463 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:22,359 he skates of Zellweger, Like he can just create stuff out of nothing and 464 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,680 just like quick transitions and he's just flying past people while they're trying to figure 465 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,240 out what's going on. Yeah, I love that pick. It's not going 466 00:32:29,279 --> 00:32:31,160 to be something where he's in the NHL next year or anything, but what 467 00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,240 a system to go into it into Colorado. It's probably going to be like 468 00:32:35,279 --> 00:32:37,759 another two or three years and then he goes in there and then he's are 469 00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:43,519 is there to show him the way and show him how things are in professional 470 00:32:43,559 --> 00:32:46,000 hockey North America. Like just a perfect mentor type thing. So yeah, 471 00:32:46,079 --> 00:32:49,960 I love that pick, and I think some teams are for sure going to 472 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:55,319 be kicking themselves about that one too. Nice. Speaking of kicking themselves, 473 00:32:55,319 --> 00:33:00,400 the next guy, Zach Benson, goes thirteenth overall to Buffalo. We were 474 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:05,079 all waiting for him to go and figured he would fall a little bit because 475 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,759 he is a bit under size five ten, one hundred and seventy pounds, 476 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:12,440 but he's a bit of a late birthday when may so he's got a little 477 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,799 bit of room to grow. And from what I hear, he's been one 478 00:33:15,799 --> 00:33:19,079 of the best players on that Winnipeg Ice team for the last couple of years, 479 00:33:19,079 --> 00:33:23,799 even with Savoy and or Savoy and Geeky being drafted already, and he 480 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:29,759 had sixty two points in sixty games for the Winnipeg Ice last season, along 481 00:33:29,799 --> 00:33:32,799 with thirty six goals. That's pretty great. He's got some really good comps. 482 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:37,000 The one that I like the best is he looks a lot like Mitch 483 00:33:37,039 --> 00:33:42,000 Marner in your model, and I think that there's some similarities in the play 484 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,880 style. Even I think Benson might even be a better defensive player. So 485 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,680 the question is, oh, and there are similar size those two. Mitch 486 00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,200 Miner's not the biggest guy Byron. Is the hype for Benson a little bit 487 00:33:53,279 --> 00:33:57,759 overblown or is it legit? And how does he fit into this already stacked 488 00:33:57,759 --> 00:34:01,880 Buffalo prospect pool. No, I think it's very legitimate hype for him, 489 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:08,159 and he probably should have definitely gone a lot higher. This one is double 490 00:34:08,199 --> 00:34:13,639 devastating for me because I actually bet on him to go to be like drafted 491 00:34:13,679 --> 00:34:16,119 like before, like ninth or something, and then he went way past it, 492 00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:20,639 So I lost fifty bucks on that. And also he was three spots 493 00:34:20,639 --> 00:34:23,000 away from the flames, So it is double whammy there. But yeah, 494 00:34:23,039 --> 00:34:25,519 you mentioned the comps. There's not a lot of comps that look like that 495 00:34:25,519 --> 00:34:30,239 that have the youth behind him. And then they have that insane draft year 496 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:35,119 production and then the pre draft gear production. Mitch Marner's a comp, Marks 497 00:34:35,159 --> 00:34:38,920 a Bard's a comp. Bigger guys like Joe Thornton, Jason Spetza couldn't Buyfielder 498 00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,840 comps. And that's it. Really, You're just looking at the great list 499 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:47,800 of players that kind of always hit and always hit big. And I think 500 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,920 he has all the makings of it because there's not the like red flags like 501 00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,039 you have with like Crystal, where you know the skatings are very good, 502 00:34:54,079 --> 00:34:59,079 like he's very good skater and stuff like. So yeah, I think Buffalo 503 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,719 made out like band that's here, and that really boosted up their pool they 504 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:07,000 needed. They needed one or two more star pieces that really bring their pool 505 00:35:07,119 --> 00:35:09,199 up. They have power. I was looking pretty good in the system. 506 00:35:09,519 --> 00:35:14,719 Daline is graduated now he's like a superstar type thing, but like they needed 507 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,280 to add another star piece to it, and I think they got done Benson, 508 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,559 And yeah, I was pretty surprised to see him drop all the way 509 00:35:21,599 --> 00:35:25,440 to thirteenth there, but the size is always gonna ding you, And yeah, 510 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:31,679 I think they got a heck of a player there, Lucas Dragasevich, 511 00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:38,199 a young defenseman taken by the Seattle Crackman krackin Seattle Kracking, that's what they're 512 00:35:38,199 --> 00:35:44,280 called. Out of the WHL's Tri City Americans. Dragasevic has skill and offensive 513 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:50,000 chops decent size is ninety four seventy five points in sixty eight games last year, 514 00:35:50,079 --> 00:35:53,360 eleven more than anybody else on Tri City, and again he was a 515 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:59,480 defenceman doing that. How high should Dragasevic have gone and what kind of a 516 00:35:59,679 --> 00:36:05,000 pro do you think he'll make? Byron? Yeah, A bit of a 517 00:36:05,039 --> 00:36:07,440 shocker with him too, Like I know, he was ranked a little bit 518 00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,960 lower because his defensive game isn't great. But typically when you look at players 519 00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,880 like that, especially with good size like Dragasevitch, they typically our first round 520 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:20,760 picks, and when you break it down, like similar to Gliayev, like 521 00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:24,039 most of the ones that fall within this kind of category, there's not a 522 00:36:24,079 --> 00:36:28,360 huge group because maybe ten of them, but they've basically all made the NHL 523 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,880 and a lot of them turn into stars. So yeah, there's some stuff 524 00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:37,440 that you got to figure out on the defensive side. Can you make that 525 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,320 work? Can he play his game in the NHL? Can he be like 526 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:45,760 a top power play unit guy or will he not get that opportunity type thing? 527 00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:50,599 But which at pick fifty seven, like what's available at that point? 528 00:36:50,639 --> 00:36:52,960 Like I wouldn't say there was much better at that point. Like I said, 529 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:57,119 like almost all these guys go in the first round at some point, 530 00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,880 especially when they have good size. Where he is take and you'd almost think 531 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:02,639 that he's like five nine or five ten or something. In fact, he's 532 00:37:02,639 --> 00:37:07,480 six two. So I think Seattle snuck away with him and got massive value 533 00:37:07,519 --> 00:37:12,320 to get him at pick fifty seven right before the third round starts. So 534 00:37:12,639 --> 00:37:14,599 yeah, I think he could be something. Again, it's not going to 535 00:37:14,679 --> 00:37:16,559 be it's probably not going to be quick. It's not going to be a 536 00:37:16,679 --> 00:37:20,800 year or that type of thing. But in two or three years you could 537 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,079 have a nice piece there where you wonder hoddity fall that far because, like 538 00:37:24,159 --> 00:37:28,079 I said, like all the guys that look like that make the NHL, 539 00:37:28,159 --> 00:37:31,159 and a good deal of them turn into stars. That's what you could have 540 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:36,000 in drag a Sevage for sure. Another guy that we wondered a little bit 541 00:37:36,039 --> 00:37:38,360 why he fell so far, and that was Gabe Pero, who fell to 542 00:37:38,559 --> 00:37:42,840 twenty third to the Rangers. I guess we knew a little bit about why 543 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:46,159 he fell. The skating is maybe not great, and he is slightly undersized 544 00:37:46,199 --> 00:37:51,079 at five eleven, but all he did was break scoring records at the USNDP, 545 00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,559 even though Will Smith got a lot more credit and even Ryan Leonard for 546 00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:59,000 his all around game and Gabe Pro certainly doesn't have that. But Pro was 547 00:37:59,039 --> 00:38:02,679 also great at the U eighteens, and his scoring profile looks really good. 548 00:38:02,679 --> 00:38:07,880 And most of the comps here again are mostly superstars, but he does have 549 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:12,440 more busts in his comps than some of the other guys that we've talked about. 550 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,519 One of the one of the couple of the stars on here, Yamor 551 00:38:15,639 --> 00:38:21,840 Yager Pavel Burrey are two of the guys that he has comps with for Paros. 552 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,400 So, Byron, why do you think he fell so far when his 553 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:29,440 other two teammates went top eight? Yeah, I mean, I think that's 554 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,280 what you mentioned, Like, he probably doesn't have quite the all around game, 555 00:38:32,639 --> 00:38:36,440 but that being said, because where was he picked, he was picked 556 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:40,559 like or something like that. Yeah, so I thought like he'd be more 557 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,920 pick like in the early to mid teens based on this deep draft. A 558 00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,639 lot of time you see a player like that and they'd be taken at the 559 00:38:50,679 --> 00:38:52,119 back end of the top ten. The big thing with him is he at 560 00:38:52,159 --> 00:38:55,239 the massive production this year. You know, he's decently young, but he 561 00:38:55,280 --> 00:39:01,679 didn't have much production as pre draft year. And that's that difference between the 562 00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:06,119 ones that look like him in his draft gear and they have the big production 563 00:39:06,159 --> 00:39:08,360 in the pre draft gear, they tend to hit more as stars, whereas 564 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:13,960 these ones sometimes they don't. Like Essentially, both Strone brothers, Ryan and 565 00:39:14,079 --> 00:39:17,360 Dylan look very similar and they both are on the fringe but never really got 566 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:21,679 there. But both those guys were drafted top five, so he looked similar 567 00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,559 to that. So yeah, to get this type of value twenty third like 568 00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,360 huge for the Rangers. And yeah, if I was a Rangers fan, 569 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:32,000 I'd be pretty pretty excited to get that type of value so late, because 570 00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:36,159 yeah, it looks really good. And like I said, like I expected 571 00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,960 him to go around the pick fifteen, and typically a player that looks like 572 00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,880 that might go even a little bit earlier than that. To get that at 573 00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:47,559 twenty third. It's pretty good stuff by Man as a Caps fan. Dylan 574 00:39:47,639 --> 00:39:51,400 Stroone, he's hit in the stride. I like Dylan Stone these days. 575 00:39:51,519 --> 00:39:58,119 He's picking it up after slower start to his career. Ruslan Kajayev, a 576 00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,800 six more goalie out of the MHL, was selected near the end of the 577 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:06,480 fifth round by Carolina. I could find only very sparse stats of this guy 578 00:40:06,679 --> 00:40:09,559 looking things up. I imagine that's what happens when you were goalie in the 579 00:40:09,679 --> 00:40:15,079 MHL. But what have you seen of this guy and what is the reason 580 00:40:15,119 --> 00:40:19,199 that you see him as a value by Carolina at this point in the draft. 581 00:40:19,199 --> 00:40:23,639 Iron, Yeah, when you when you look at in the goalie model 582 00:40:23,639 --> 00:40:30,639 I have, I'm very favorable of Europeans because they just have a different track 583 00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:37,039 from CHL goalies and really North American goalies, where they can be playing in 584 00:40:37,039 --> 00:40:40,800 the junior league, which is like the equivalent of the OHL MHL, and 585 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:45,239 they can be up playing in the KHL like the next week. They can 586 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:51,280 bounce around seemingly wherever, like within that team's structure in between the MHL, 587 00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:57,079 VHL and KHL, Whereas CHL goalies especially like they're just stuck in the CHL 588 00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,239 until they're pretty enough that they can go to the HL. So they're facing 589 00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:05,639 like those shots from teenagers for years and years and they just what I found 590 00:41:05,639 --> 00:41:08,320 from my research is a lot of them a lot more than bust out than 591 00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:15,159 the Europeans because they're not able to face that like competition from like men is 592 00:41:15,159 --> 00:41:17,559 what you need. You need that earlier, the earlier the better, essentially. 593 00:41:17,679 --> 00:41:21,599 So this guy he's playing in the NMHL is some decent numbers. He's 594 00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,880 massive, and so that's why the model really likes him. Like he was 595 00:41:25,519 --> 00:41:34,360 he had the highest l probability of all the goalies twenty three draft and yeah, 596 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,880 so he's drafted like at the back end of the fifth round like Carolina, 597 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,199 who just this is what they do, and they just sneak into the 598 00:41:40,199 --> 00:41:44,840 European pockets and then just take all these guys and everybody else is avoiding and 599 00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:49,480 they end up with this like massive haul of prospects that they shouldn't have for 600 00:41:49,519 --> 00:41:52,920 a team that's trying to contend for the Cup. And it is trading first 601 00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,239 round picks and stuff, but that's what they do. So, yeah, 602 00:41:54,239 --> 00:42:00,280 they get this guy and so if he gets on like the KHL track within 603 00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:01,920 the two next two or three years, like he's just going to shoot up 604 00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:06,559 nasively because those are the goalies that tend to make it. He's sitting right 605 00:42:06,599 --> 00:42:09,599 on the fringe there, and he'll probably be on that circuit and getting playing 606 00:42:09,639 --> 00:42:15,480 time within the basically the second best league in the world pretty rapidly. And 607 00:42:15,639 --> 00:42:22,920 this is what Potchekov looks like there. Carolina's other sort of stud goalie is 608 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,800 this. He started off in the MHL and within a couple of years he 609 00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:28,679 was in the KHL like this, This is what I'm envisioning for him. 610 00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:32,119 So yeah, so I really like that pick and thought Carolina stole that one 611 00:42:32,159 --> 00:42:40,360 at almost the sixth round type thing. Well, tremendous, Yeah, I've 612 00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:45,559 had I've I love this take about the goalies Byron, and I definitely have 613 00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:52,079 been suggesting some similar things in terms of fantasy management, because you're right, 614 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,559 the HL goalies get stuck for so long, and at least you can get 615 00:42:55,559 --> 00:42:59,480 those over here a little bit more. And I love the point about seeing 616 00:42:59,599 --> 00:43:04,000 Professor shots so much earlier. I think that really shaped shirt developments in a 617 00:43:04,079 --> 00:43:07,679 similar vein. I would just wait and see who the Euro goalies are that 618 00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:12,360 you can get and having your lineup a little bit earlier. Yeah, for 619 00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,639 sure. Like the big kind of hidden market that not a lot of teams 620 00:43:15,639 --> 00:43:20,679 have started to cash in on yet is drafting overage goalies, but drafting ones 621 00:43:20,679 --> 00:43:24,480 that are basically playing like SHL or the KHL or like D plus one or 622 00:43:24,559 --> 00:43:30,480 D plus two season, because those are the ones that are rapidly evolving and 623 00:43:30,519 --> 00:43:35,840 they're facing the professional shots early on. And if I was a drafting team 624 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,880 like I'd basically be looking for those goalies laid in the draft because they have 625 00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:44,559 a good shot, better shot than overage goalie is playing in the USAHL or 626 00:43:44,559 --> 00:43:49,400 maybe is in is DP plus two and just starting out in Ncuba a type 627 00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,480 thing, because it's just a whole different ball game. Yeah, it seems 628 00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,639 like something you can't make up later. It's important part of the development. 629 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,239 Yeah, let's let's move over to the next guy. Andrew Stall We mentioned 630 00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:06,039 him earlier. He went fortieth overall to Washington, which you know, probably 631 00:44:06,119 --> 00:44:07,960 a bit later than some people had him, but I think it was reasonable 632 00:44:08,039 --> 00:44:13,480 based on some of the size concerns that some people have, But in terms 633 00:44:13,519 --> 00:44:15,599 of the raw skill, super high and I have him ranked twelfth in my 634 00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:21,440 fantasy ranking. I know for fantasy people like him a lot more. And 635 00:44:21,519 --> 00:44:25,280 he had really great production for Colona on the WHL. And I think the 636 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,719 Hockey prospecting star potential sixty percent is super high. That's what he's at, 637 00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:35,920 sixty eight percent chance of being an NHLer. He's got some comps that maybe 638 00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,039 it didn't turn out so well, like you're Brian Little's and Derek Brossard's, 639 00:44:38,079 --> 00:44:42,840 but he's got a lot of really great comps to like Tarasenko and Tyler Sagan. 640 00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:47,800 Tell us why this was a really great value for Washington bron Yeah, 641 00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:53,639 like you mentioned, like the comps here are pretty good, Like basically nearly 642 00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:59,039 one hundred percent of players that look like this, like same kind of age. 643 00:44:59,119 --> 00:45:02,360 He's an older player, really good production in his pre draft year and 644 00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:07,400 even better production in his draft year, like going up to an elite level. 645 00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:09,920 You look at them and you know there's very few bus from there. 646 00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:15,079 So at the very worst in the second round, where you know only about 647 00:45:15,119 --> 00:45:20,719 thirty percent of players drafted make the NHL, like you're getting a guy with 648 00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,079 a ninety five percent chance. Really, when you break down the dating, 649 00:45:23,159 --> 00:45:28,079 you look specifically at guys that look like this that make the NHL type thing, 650 00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,559 and a lot of them turn into stars. You know, some recent 651 00:45:30,639 --> 00:45:35,599 guys like Dry Cital, Ryan and Reinhardt, Cole Proffetti, like that's what 652 00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,840 they kind of look like and they're taking top ten essentially. So typically these 653 00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:44,800 guys are taken early and it's rare that they fall to the second round. 654 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,960 Like one similar one from a few years ago. He doesn't look quite the 655 00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:52,360 same. He looked a little bit better, but like Alex de Brinkak look 656 00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,400 like this, and people thought, for a small guys, he's not super 657 00:45:55,440 --> 00:46:00,199 super fast, and so they were a bit tepid on him, and he 658 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,599 drops to the second round and now obviously he's worked up great. So that 659 00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:07,159 might be what you're looking at with Crystal. Is the same type of thing 660 00:46:07,199 --> 00:46:09,599 where you look back in five years and it's all dis guys shouldn't have dropped 661 00:46:09,599 --> 00:46:14,079 to the second round, and we would say, yes, yeah, you 662 00:46:14,119 --> 00:46:19,800 should. Enough Bemour Mukhanov another trip to the MHL for US and another late 663 00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,679 hurricane pick this one number one sixty three off the board, and in this 664 00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:30,360 case a teammate of Guyayev, the previously mentioned player, the Centerman. Mukhanov 665 00:46:30,559 --> 00:46:34,440 is short five eight, but apparently one hundred and seventy nine pounds, which 666 00:46:34,559 --> 00:46:37,280 is not small for somebody who is five eight. That seems pretty sturdy to 667 00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:42,800 me. I see that the Elite Prospects Guide had him way way higher than 668 00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,199 it's maybe one hundred spots higher in the rankings that he was selected. What 669 00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:51,079 gives you optimism for Mukhanov and how do you see his game translating to the 670 00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,360 NHL Byron Yeah, I was, Yeah, he's a small guy, but 671 00:46:54,800 --> 00:47:00,599 it's very thick built, like an oak stump almost. But when I'm looking 672 00:47:00,599 --> 00:47:05,239 at my whole list of prospects and the way I filtered to the high probability 673 00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,559 guys, he bubbled to the top, like, Okay, this guy isn't 674 00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:12,320 talked about a lot. But then you get into some certain scouting circles and 675 00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:15,199 stuff like the EP rankings, which I heavily lie them. You know, 676 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,440 is read their guide when it comes out, and they are very high in 677 00:47:17,519 --> 00:47:22,360 them. And then they seated some other public scouts out there that I trust, 678 00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,320 and they they'd have him ranked in the late first or second round type 679 00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:30,880 thing. He's got really good production he's really young, he's a good center, 680 00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:35,360 and then you have these scouts that are also not bringing up red flags 681 00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:37,519 about him, So that gives me kind of the confidence. Yet like this 682 00:47:37,599 --> 00:47:43,119 guy's could make it, like he's especially if he shoots up a couple levels, 683 00:47:43,159 --> 00:47:45,719 like over the next couple of years and when he goes back to Russia 684 00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:50,800 or whatever. Like players that look like this very good production in their draft 685 00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,679 here and they're also very young like this. These are the types of ones 686 00:47:52,679 --> 00:47:57,519 that kind of come out of nowhere, these deep round picks or maybe even 687 00:47:57,599 --> 00:48:00,719 undrafted guys, and then they just somehow find a spot in the NHL. 688 00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,159 But when you look at them in the model, like a lot of these 689 00:48:04,199 --> 00:48:07,559 guys, these guys make it, and some of them turn into stars. 690 00:48:07,599 --> 00:48:10,679 Like like a guy like Marty Saint Louis, smaller framed guy that's also thick 691 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:15,719 like that, Like he looks very similar to this because he's born in the 692 00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:20,880 summer and he has the same equivalency. Was that it's the absolute ceiling type 693 00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:22,800 thing. But yeah, I think this guy could come in in three or 694 00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:29,039 four years some and surprise some people and actually make the NHL because yeah, 695 00:48:29,039 --> 00:48:31,760 he has that look and when you read the scouting stuff like it all sounds 696 00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:37,320 pretty favorable. So yeah, I love that pick for Carolina and thought he 697 00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:42,760 would go I thought he'd go much higher than that, for sure, for 698 00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,639 sure. And another guy that I really love this pick is cohen Ziemer when 699 00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:52,159 seventy eighth overall to Los Angeles at this point in the third round, I 700 00:48:52,199 --> 00:48:55,119 think you're just you're just laughing all the way home with this pick. And 701 00:48:55,159 --> 00:49:00,679 a guy had incredible production in the WHL for Prince George forty one goals, 702 00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:05,159 forty eight assists in sixty eight games, and he's got decent size. There's 703 00:49:05,159 --> 00:49:08,920 some concerns about maybe the translatability of his game to the NHL, but you're 704 00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:13,639 talking about a guy with a forty percent chance of being a star, sixty 705 00:49:13,639 --> 00:49:17,440 four percent chance of being an NHLer. He's got some comps of Dawson Mercer 706 00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:22,039 who's in the league now, and Logan Cature, Nazi Kadri, even some 707 00:49:22,159 --> 00:49:27,280 Rod Niedemeyer. So there's some variability there in terms of the outcomes. But 708 00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,480 he's the guy who for me, one of the highest differentials on my rankings, 709 00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,119 which I had him eighteenth, in terms of where he was drafting the 710 00:49:34,199 --> 00:49:38,280 NHL versus where I would rank him fantasy wise. So that's a massive value 711 00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:42,480 and probably a guy that in a lot of leagues you can get later. 712 00:49:42,599 --> 00:49:45,519 So tell us, Byron, why you think this was a pretty good value 713 00:49:45,519 --> 00:49:49,920 at seventy eight. Yeah, when you look at guys that have his sort 714 00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,800 of profile, same age and production in his pre draft year and then into 715 00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:59,039 his draft year. Typically, like you've seen from the collumps, these are 716 00:49:59,079 --> 00:50:01,760 guys that are often drafted in the first round, like usually like a mid 717 00:50:01,760 --> 00:50:06,400 first round pick. There was a few of them taken this year literally as 718 00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,400 mid first round picks that look similar. Obviously they have more of the intangibles 719 00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:13,960 and all that type of stuff, but guys like Oliver Moore, Matthew Would 720 00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,880 they look very similar to Cohen Ziemer. So to get this type of value 721 00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:22,320 like in the third round, I mean, it's just massive. They're not 722 00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:27,639 often available that late. Another guy that looks exactly that you like this that 723 00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:32,320 was available in the third round was Brandon Point and Ziemer is not five nine 724 00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:36,639 or five ten, so it's a bit surprising that he's available there and he's 725 00:50:36,639 --> 00:50:38,960 not going to end up like prating Point obviously, but yeah, I think 726 00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:43,039 it was huge value to get that at that point, and the kings of 727 00:50:43,159 --> 00:50:49,920 being cashion in on these these guys that hockey prospecting would find as good value. 728 00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,079 They've been cashing on these guys for years, so I'm not surprised that 729 00:50:52,199 --> 00:50:54,840 he goes to a team like Los Angeles and the third round. There. 730 00:50:55,800 --> 00:51:00,119 The last guy we've got on this list Igor Klimov, and he didn't even 731 00:51:00,159 --> 00:51:04,960 get drafted this time. Somehow I got all the MHL guys today. Victor 732 00:51:05,039 --> 00:51:07,239 hates the mhl's guts. I think we've established that in the past on this 733 00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:12,639 show. Klimovich. Anyway, back to him forty nine points in thirty two 734 00:51:12,639 --> 00:51:19,000 games last year for Sabirski Snapperry's Noble sibers Novo Siberis. That's real out there, 735 00:51:19,119 --> 00:51:24,039 that's Siberia type territory listed five to nine and one fifty nine. His 736 00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:29,079 dad actually got a cup of coffee with the Chicago Blackhawks thirty years ago after 737 00:51:29,119 --> 00:51:31,840 a journeyman career, so does have some bloodlines, some history with the sport. 738 00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:37,800 What is Klimovich's projection Byron and was it a mistake for him to be 739 00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:43,320 left undrafted? Yeah, he was an interesting one, like he was basically 740 00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:49,960 the highest value forward by the model that basically wasn't taken massive production in the 741 00:51:50,079 --> 00:51:54,280 MHL. Typically these guys, even playing in Siberia, they're typically taken at 742 00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:58,280 some point, so it's a been surprised that somebody didn't even take like a 743 00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,559 seventh round flyer on him type. But again, he's small, so that's 744 00:52:01,559 --> 00:52:05,760 going to come into it. He's pretty slight. He looks very similar like 745 00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,960 in terms of his profile on the model to mcconough, but he's not quite 746 00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:15,000 as thick as him type thing, and I think mcconaugh's more of a two 747 00:52:15,039 --> 00:52:20,440 way center. Klemovic is, I believe a winger, so maybe doesn't have 748 00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:23,039 that two way game to him. But yeah, typically players that look like 749 00:52:23,039 --> 00:52:28,800 this get drafted with equivalence he's this high, especially the young ones. He's 750 00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,760 born in May. I don't have all the records of the guys not drafted 751 00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:37,320 into the NHL over the past thirty years, but I would guess that there's 752 00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,159 very few that have an equivalency this high, especially from the last twenty or 753 00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:45,079 some years, where you know, dipping into the euro markets is being very 754 00:52:45,119 --> 00:52:49,000 frequent, and that's not as especially drafting the Russians and that type of thing. 755 00:52:49,079 --> 00:52:52,320 Guys that look like this typically get drafted. Does he go up another 756 00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:57,039 level in his d plus one year and now he's on team's radars, and 757 00:52:57,079 --> 00:53:00,679 then he's drafted. He's like he's drafted as an over ranger, or maybe 758 00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,079 you see him his name emerging four or five years it's like one of these 759 00:53:05,039 --> 00:53:07,679 three agents coming out of the KHL or something that a team takes a run 760 00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:12,559 on. But yeah, I was pretty surprised that he went completely undrafted because 761 00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:15,480 he looked like he had the numbers that at some point a team would sneak 762 00:53:15,519 --> 00:53:20,239 him in there. But it was not meant to be. It was not 763 00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,440 meant to be. Sometimes at the end of the drafted there's only so many 764 00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:27,519 picks out there, and somebody is going to slip through. Well Byron Worse, 765 00:53:27,559 --> 00:53:30,840 You're glad you didn't slip through this draft season without talking to us, 766 00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:34,920 because you bring some great insight on your projections, on the things in your 767 00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,760 model that will help us to understand what this draft was all about. Why 768 00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:42,719 don't you let people know how they can keep up with things like your model 769 00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:45,239 and all the work that you have going out there in the public sphere. 770 00:53:45,519 --> 00:53:50,920 Yeah. So the website is Hockey prospect dot com and that has all the 771 00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,960 tools going back, like I said, to nineteen ninety. So it's a 772 00:53:54,440 --> 00:54:00,760 thirty five dollars Canadian subscription, so I think for your American audience that's like 773 00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:05,000 twenty five ish depending on the old conversion rate. And then yeah, you 774 00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:09,960 can access all the player comparison tools. You can access the team prospect ranking 775 00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:15,119 tools. You can look back at the last few decades or last decade of 776 00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:19,960 drafting and see which teams have drafted the most stars and the most NHLs and 777 00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:22,519 that type of stuff. That's all on the website. And then you can 778 00:54:22,559 --> 00:54:28,119 find me on Twitter at Byron em Vader or I'll post screenshots from the model 779 00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:34,239 and talk about different historical things or crazy and wild stats that I find well 780 00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,840 digging through and do my research and different things about the drafts coming up and 781 00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:38,760 that type of thing. So, yeah, that's where you can find me. 782 00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:45,400 If you all learnt following Byron already and not signed up for his website, 783 00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:50,239 you're doing Prospects and Dynasty wrong. So you should go do that right 784 00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:52,039 now. You all know that I talk about your stuff all the time, 785 00:54:52,159 --> 00:55:07,800 so definitely really encourage you to do that. Hey, before we get out 786 00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,960 of here, this is a couple of things that you need to know. 787 00:55:12,079 --> 00:55:15,079 One of them is fan tracks is the place to play all of your fantasy 788 00:55:15,119 --> 00:55:19,960 leagues. That's right, you heard me the first time. Fan Tracks there's 789 00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:22,599 ten different sports. You can customize all the options you would want. It's 790 00:55:22,599 --> 00:55:28,039 the only place to play dynasty because every single prospect you're gonna want is in 791 00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:30,880 that database, and if one's missing, just tell them they'll add it in. 792 00:55:31,199 --> 00:55:36,239 There's a chat feature on the app. You can chat league by league. 793 00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:38,960 Some places are scaling that type of thing back, but fan Tracks is 794 00:55:39,119 --> 00:55:43,400 not, so start new leagues there. There's also I'm guessing there's going to 795 00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:47,079 be some prizes for doing so when the season comes along. Just hitting fan 796 00:55:47,119 --> 00:55:52,239 tracks. HQ has lots of fantasy content, articles on fantasy hockey, with 797 00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,760 all the other fantasy sports. There's some new authors even. We've got podcasts 798 00:55:55,760 --> 00:56:00,519 for fantasy baseball, basketball, and football, so you should hang around and 799 00:56:00,639 --> 00:56:04,400 listen to some of those. We're also brought to you by Dabber Hockey and 800 00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:07,840 Dabber Prospects. Victor covers the Detroit Red Wings and as an editor, so 801 00:56:07,920 --> 00:56:13,519 check out his work there. He also on the Dauber Hockey Network, which 802 00:56:13,559 --> 00:56:15,880 by the way, this podcast is also on, does something called the Dauber 803 00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:21,920 Prospect Report podcast with our buddy Peter Harling, where they get into a bunch 804 00:56:22,039 --> 00:56:27,280 of hockey prospects. Definitely something worth checking out if you're interested in shows like 805 00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:30,880 the one you're listening to right now. There's such a thing as Dynasty Sports 806 00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,719 Life. That's a podcast I do and it's pretty much a solo project. 807 00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:39,719 I have guests on periodically and we talk about all dynasty sports. Baseball, 808 00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:44,360 football, basketball also get covered there. So if you've played those sports, 809 00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,360 if you're into all the sports, or if you're into multisport leagues, we're 810 00:56:47,519 --> 00:56:51,559 into those over there. In fact, we're drafting one currently, twenty five 811 00:56:51,599 --> 00:56:57,239 of us are going through a multisport draft, including Victor and including some of 812 00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:02,239 the patrons from over here. It's it's really good times. Also, you 813 00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:07,599 should be following us on Twitter at fan Hockey Life at Victor Nuno twelve. 814 00:57:07,159 --> 00:57:12,239 Follow us and if you follow us, retweet an episode and give us a 815 00:57:12,280 --> 00:57:15,599 five star review. On Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you do your podcast, 816 00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:21,119 and then you send us the information that shows you did all those things, 817 00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:23,920 you'll be entered into drawing. I think there's still just barely time to 818 00:57:24,079 --> 00:57:28,480 get in under the gun on that drawing rate and review us, So that 819 00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:32,559 would be great. Keep listening because pretty soon we're just about to come back 820 00:57:32,599 --> 00:57:38,760 to the team previews, and we'd like you to keep living that fantasy hockey light