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But I think we're going to see
the economy start to slow in the third

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quarter, and that's slowing is going
to pick up speed as we get him

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the fourth quarter. But the Fed
isn't going to react immediately by lowering rates,

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and I think that's going to be
the hard part for the market to

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accept. If you will, you're
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network where

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00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,760
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8
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Survival Network now more than ever.
And welcome you are watching listening to the

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Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie lets Well. This person who

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we're going to hear from today was
correct about inflation and a let's see if

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what is thinking in terms of the
hard landing soft landing or we'll just say,

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stay suspended in the air forever,
right, yeah, forever and ever.

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Jim Welsh Macrotide dot com with us. Jim, welcome back so he

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could join your carry. As though
inflation is over, we can all rest

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assured. We don't have to worry
about anything because they fixed it right.

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Not quite, no fix it,
No, they not entirely. Again,

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last October, I began to write
that we were going to see a significant

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decline and inflation in the first half
of this year, predominantly because the takeaway

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values carry from last year because the
CBIs are rated change, so they give

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subtract the number from twelve months ago, and you add in the current month.

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So I was talking about back in
February this year that we could see

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the CPI down to three percent,
which we fought out. That's exactly where

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it when. And the part was
because the takeaway value from June of twenty

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twenty two was one point three percent, and then you just add whatever the

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current months changes, in this case
it was point two percent, and then

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implied that we could see the CPI
dropped by about a percent, which it

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did from four to three. What
goal listeners and viewers will see in one

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of the charts I provided is going
forward the next six months, the numbers

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changed. So instead of the average
monthly decline in the first six months was

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point eight nine percent, it's only
point two percent. In July, it's

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flat. August it's twelve basis points. So if the CPI continues to be

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up point two percent and the next
two months, when we get the August

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reading in mid September, the CPI
is going to go from three to maybe

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three three, maybe three four.
So the only point being is that a

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lot of the improvement was because of
the reverse from last year's numbers. And

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what I've written about is the thing
that could make that an even worse comparison

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is I think energy prices are,
in terms of oil, going to head

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higher. The low in June was
around sixty seven dollars, it's trading around

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seventy six. Based on the chart, I think crude oil can get to

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eighty one, it gets much above
that eighty six, and nat gas prices

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bottom at two twenty five the I
think two sixty something. I think potentially

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they could get to three forty.
So the point being is the big takeaway

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values were led by a big decline
in energy costs, and they're now reversing.

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So the ZPI in the next few
months may tick higher than just the

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point three or point four that I
indicated. And then also food prices.

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Russia ended their deal with Ukraine.
We've seen grain prices in terms of corn

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and wheat jump three to four or
five percent. Again, that will add

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to the headline inflation and coming months. So you know, it's not like,

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oh, my gosh, the world
is falling, but a lot of

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people have kind of built in the
assumption to your question, oh, inflation

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is behind us, it's not a
problem, and I don't believe that's the

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case. All right, So it
is a problem. And the unemployment employment

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numbers also a problem, isn't it. I think so. Historically we know

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that monetary policy actually lag. The
average recession has taken nineteen months to begin

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after a yield curve in version.
So the yield curve inversion in July of

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last year, which kind of implies
by late this year early next year,

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would be the average lag time.
There's a chart that I provided showing the

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federal funds rate, and what was
done in this chart, Carre is they

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pushed the federal funds rate forward by
eighteen months in a sense to account for

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that lag time, and then overlaid
unemployment claims on top of it. And

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what we can see is historically a
big increase in unemployment claims have followed after

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big increases in the federal funds rate. Well, the Fed funds rate started

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up in March of last year.
Eighteen months gets us basically to September.

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So my point is that we're going
to see the unemployment numbers start to tick

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up later this year. The job
numbers are already starting to slow. The

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two hundred and nine thousand looked like
a good number on the top, but

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the sixty thousand of that was government
jobs. Hours worked have been declining significantly

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over the last twelve eighteen months.
Looking at on employment claims, they're starting

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to creep higher. So the point
being carry is that I believe we're going

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to see the labor market start to
reflect the impact from higher interest rates.

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And the Fed itself has projected that
next year the unemplumbent rate will get to

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four point five percent. Well,
anything anytime there's been a point five percent,

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in other words, you go from
three and a half to four,

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that's been a recession or you're on
the doorstep or in our recession. So

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you know, the Fed wants to
get inflation down. The biggest declines in

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inflation have occurred during recessions, so
I know the Fed wants to avoid a

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recession. But I think the combination
of the yield curban version leading economic indicators

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which have dropped fourteen months in a
row, and whenever they've declined as much

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as they have, there's always been
a recession in the last fifty years.

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And lastly, lending standards have been
increased significantly before the regional bank crisis in

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March. Lag time is about nine
months. And when you think about it,

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if you're a small business owner and
you have a loando in September,

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well, the increase and lending standards
that took place late last year, you

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haven't felt it, but it will
fee it when your loan comes due in

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terms of either cost of the loan
is going to go up significantly. And

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potentially what also starts to happen is
banks start to scruit light. Do they

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want to give you the same amount
of money because their outlook is that the

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economy is going to slow. So
again, a lot of this stuff has

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built in lag times. And what's
happened is a year ago, as you

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know, everyone was talking recession,
recession or I pushed back against I said,

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there's not going to be a recession
in twenty twenty two, and I

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in my monthly macrotides. I went
to explanations why I didn't think there would

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be a recession in the first half
of this year. But I think we're

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going to see the economy start to
slow in the third quarter, and that's

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slowing is going to pick up speed
as we get him the fourth quarter.

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But the Fed isn't going to react
immediately by lowering rates, and I think

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that's going to be the hard part
for the market to accept, if you

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will. All right, so everything
you know is wrong. In other words,

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everything you're thinking of, Well again, markets are as you know.

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I mean, markets are kind of
weird. Everyone thought there was going to

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be a recession for the wrong reasons, just because you had two quarters in

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a row of negative GDP. Well, historically that's been a pretty good benchmark.

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But in the first half of last
year, job growth was averaging three

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hundred and fifty thousand new jobs.
That's like a boom. A Gross domestic

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income was up in the first quarter
of last year and the third quarter,

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So even while GDP was down,
GDI was up in the first quarter.

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And the National Bureau of Economic Research, that's the outfit that determines the beginning

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and ends of recession. They don't
look just at gross domestic product. They

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look at six different groups of indicators, and they wait, gross domestic income

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equally with gross domestic product. Now
here's the thing. No one's talking about

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it. In the fourth quarter GDI
was down three and a half percent,

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and it was down I think one
point three percent in the first quarter.

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So in other words, these are
all, in my opinion, signs that

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things are under the surface, slowly
but surely slowing down. And it all

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adds up in my mind. You
know that the economy is going to slow

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in the second half of this year, and I think more so next year.

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I don't all right, so more
slowing, do you think we'll have

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a legitimate recession? Then a problem? I mean there's going to be at

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least one quarter of negative GDP rolls. I think the odds of a recession

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are very high, but it may
not really chick in until we get into

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the early part of next year.
And again I'm relying on the yield curve,

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LI lending standards going up. In
a little common sense, every time

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those indicators have hit levels that they
are currently at, there hasn't been a

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recession going back to the last sixty
years, so I reliable. Yeah,

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absolutely, at a minimum a significant
slowdown. Now what's ironic is equity investors

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because everyone was wrong about the recession
last year or the first half of this

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year. Now, hey, we
don't have to worry about a recession.

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Mary Lynch does a survey every month
of mail managers money managers. Sixty eight

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percent don't think we're going to have
a recession. So it's really, you

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know, shifted significantly from where it
was a year ago, and it's almost

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perfect setup where now that no one's
anticipating a recession, the odds are that

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it's like you're going to increase and
I'm not trying to be flipping again.

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It's based on the historical performance of
very good indicators. All right, So

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is it going to be a hard
landing or a soft landing? Very difficult

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to know because a lot of things
show up out of the woodwork that can't

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be anticipated. I think commercial real
estate is going to be a problem next

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year, you know, obviously office
buildings, even shopping malls. You know,

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we don't know how much unemployment will
go up, so to me,

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it doesn't at this point in time. It's given them most of you are

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looking for a recession, the fact
that there's a recession likely is enough.

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Are they surprise a negative surprise?
And I think for most investors, if

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it turns out to be a hard
landing, well it's just going to be

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a really bad surprise. And we
don't need to know that at this point

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time. Yeah, yeah, yep, yep. All right. So if

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you had to hazard a guess,
your inclination, your gut all these years

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you've been doing this, what you're
feeling, I think it's going to be

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worse than a soft landing. Okay, you know, you know. I

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just there's just a lot of excesses
that have built up, and it makes

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time to address them. And again, people have been able to keep spending

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because of the accumulated savings, extra
savings that they had because of the pandemic

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distribution of money they weren't allowed to
go out. But that savings is starting

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00:12:00,279 --> 00:12:05,440
to whittle down, and so the
slowdown in spending is already starting to show

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up. Same store sales last week
came out, Carrie, they were down

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slightly. We're seeing more signs of
credit card stress showing up. So some

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of the things that got overlooked last
week in terms of the CPI dropped and

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it wasn't that wonderful real number out
to another one. The government gives a

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report in terms of revenues and expenditures. Well, expenditures are still quite strong,

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which is again one of the reasons
why the economy has been hanging in

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there. But income, you know, in otherwords, taxes peaked in the

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fourth quarter of last year, and
i've been trending down so far through the

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first six months of this year.
Historically, that's another leading indicator that you're

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00:12:52,919 --> 00:12:58,519
approaching a recession. So a lot
of these things are moving in that direction.

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It just is like it always does. It just takes longer than people

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00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,639
expect, and in this case,
it's kind of fooled them to think that,

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Okay, if it hasn't happened by
now, it's not going to happen.

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00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:13,720
Yeah. All right, well,
I'm glad we touched space. Glad

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00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,639
we got your latest update. I
will we have some jets on the markets

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00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:20,559
if you want to cover those real
quick. Yeah, let's let's cover I'm

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00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:26,120
sure. Yeah. So you know
gold, I think gold completed the first

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00:13:26,159 --> 00:13:30,960
phase. If you will have the
next bull market when it rallied from sixteen

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00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:35,000
sixteen to twenty fifty nine. Since
early May, I've been looking for a

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00:13:35,039 --> 00:13:39,279
wave to pullback. The three eight
two retracement of the rally was eighteen ninety

174
00:13:39,279 --> 00:13:45,440
four or ninety and at eighteen ninety
four, it's possible that pullback is done.

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00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,000
Carry I still think the odds are
we're going to see one more dip

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00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:54,360
in gold below eighteen ninety four before
we see the beginning of the next leg

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00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,960
higher that will take gold to new
all time highs. Twenty three hundred.

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Twenty four hundred is definitely in reach. In terms of the SMP five hundred,

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00:14:03,879 --> 00:14:09,440
we're at a really interesting juncture.
Primary the seven eighty six retracement of

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00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:16,600
the decline last year is forty five
thirty four. We're within one percent of

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00:14:16,639 --> 00:14:22,679
that at this point in time.
The big rally up from October into early

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00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:26,679
December, pull back into March,
the rally we've seen since March, those

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00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:31,840
two legs are equal at twelve.
So these measurements to me suggest we're in

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00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:37,159
the zip code of what could be
an important high. The fundamentals suggests that

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00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:43,240
eight people are overestimating the positive part
of about the economy. Sentiment has gotten

186
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:48,480
really pretty wildly bullish. The only
thing that's really happening and still in good

187
00:14:48,519 --> 00:14:52,320
shape is momentum, So that is
the next thing that needs to happen to

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00:14:52,399 --> 00:14:56,000
kind of start to confirm this stuff. Yeah, you know, I would

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00:14:56,080 --> 00:15:00,360
discount and so on the chart of
the SMP, see way they down to

190
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:05,440
October big ABC up to a B
wave high. What that implies carry is

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00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,799
the potential of a sea wave decline
that will undercut the lows October. Now,

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00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:15,320
if I thought the FED was going
to be cutting rates soon, or

193
00:15:15,399 --> 00:15:18,279
that the economy was going to be
holding in their well or gaining strength,

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00:15:18,799 --> 00:15:24,960
that would cast doubt on that pattern
analysis. The fact it's just the opposite,

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00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,679
you know, means like, okay, it's time to get pretty cautious.

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00:15:28,759 --> 00:15:33,960
I think, given where prices are
at this point in time, all

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00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:39,840
right makes a lot of sense.
Hey, the banking crisis, is it

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00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,720
going to come back with a vengeance
or is it over for now? Well?

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00:15:43,759 --> 00:15:46,519
I think the one that happened in
March got blown out of proportion.

200
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:54,240
Quite honestly. It was three banks
that were extraordinarily badly managed based on their

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00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:58,440
mismatch between deposits and liabilities and everything
else. So to me, that was

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00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:03,679
never likely to become the old my
god, a full blown thing. The

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00:16:03,759 --> 00:16:07,240
key thing is people are like,
oh, we're gonna have a credit crunch.

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00:16:07,679 --> 00:16:11,759
No, but the real problem is
that lending standards at in the first

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00:16:11,799 --> 00:16:15,840
quarter got up to forty six percent. They got to forty three percent at

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the end of last year. Historic
of going back to last fifty years,

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when other whenever more than twenty percent
of banks have raised lending standards, we've

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had a recession. Well, it
was forty three percent in the last year,

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in forty six in the first quarter. So to me, that is

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the bigger issue. No one's talking
about it. You know, they were

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worried, Oh my god, this
guy's going to fall. That created some

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negativity. The market got oversold,
and we've seen the market rally and the

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employment report for me that came out
I think it was in June second it

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was three hundred and nine thousand.
That really seemed to solidify people's viewpoint that,

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oh, we don't have to worry
about a recession for whatever reason.

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And then we've seen cyclical stocks rally, a small cap stocks rally again on

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the idea that we're not going to
have a recession, and if we do,

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it's going to be an inconvenient you
know, soft landing. So we're

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at it. I think you know
an inflection point potentially, you know a

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number of these markets. All right, Well, interesting, very very interesting

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times ahead here, Jim. We
always appreciate your coming on and giving us

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your insight. Macrotides dot com is
where you find Jim and there's a link

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in the shows this interview on Financial
Survival Network dot com and here I would

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like to offer their line macrotides to
anyone who All they have to do is

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00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:47,880
send me an email Jim Welsh macro
at Gmail, and I'll send you The

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July issue covered a lot of important
points regarding the labor market, and I

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think they'll find it pretty and I'll
probably toss in the most recent weekly technical

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review. Week and a half ago, I was looking for the spated rally

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above forty five hundred, the dollar
to drop below one hundreds, have a

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sharp decline. It had formed a
triangle. I thought Bonniels would come down

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a little bit, and I thought
gold would pop all based on that big

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decline in the CPI reports. I'm
happy to send those reports out to your

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faithful listeners. All right, hey, if you got any questions, kl

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at Kerry Lutz dot com and appreciate
you coming on. We will talk to

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you again soon. Joe sounds good. Stay well, Carrie, thanks for

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listening to carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.

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For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network

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00:18:42,759 --> 00:18:45,279
now more than ever,