WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:04.480 This is Spacetime Series twenty seven, Episode ten, for broadcast on the twenty 2 00:00:04.480 --> 00:00:09.720 second of January twenty twenty four. Coming up on Space Time, the Dark 3 00:00:09.839 --> 00:00:15.160 Energy Survey. It still can't answer the key question is dark energy changing over 4 00:00:15.279 --> 00:00:22.640 time? Titans Magic Islands finally explained, and the failed Pereguin Luna Lander burns 5 00:00:22.719 --> 00:00:27.280 up in the atmosphere above Australia in the South Pacific. All that and more 6 00:00:27.359 --> 00:00:51.479 coming up on Spacetime Welcome to Spacetime with Stuart Gary. Astronomers taking part in 7 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:56.479 the recent release of data from the Dark Energy Survey say the findings closely follow 8 00:00:56.560 --> 00:01:00.079 existing predictions on the properties of dark energy, but still cat answer the key 9 00:01:00.159 --> 00:01:06.599 question of whether or not it's changing over time. Dark energy is a mysterious 10 00:01:06.680 --> 00:01:11.719 force at the opposite to gravity, causing the expansion of the universe to accelerate 11 00:01:11.760 --> 00:01:17.599 over cosmic timescales. The Dark Energy Survey was an international collaboration involving more than 12 00:01:17.640 --> 00:01:23.280 four hundred astronomers from over twenty five institutions. They mapped an area almost an 13 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:27.640 eighth of the entire sky using the five hundred and seventy megapixel Dark Energy Digital 14 00:01:27.719 --> 00:01:33.079 Camera. The camera was matted on the Victor M. Blanco telescope at the 15 00:01:33.200 --> 00:01:38.959 National Science Foundation's Sarah Tololo Intero American Observatory in Chile. The survey took data 16 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:44.359 for seven hundred and fifty eight nights over some six years, tracing out the 17 00:01:44.480 --> 00:01:49.719 history of cosmic expansion over a wide range of distances with large samples of exploding 18 00:01:49.760 --> 00:01:55.319 stars known as type one A supernovae. Type one A supernovae a white dwarf 19 00:01:55.359 --> 00:02:00.840 stars that accumulate matter from surrounding material and other stars. When they reach a 20 00:02:00.840 --> 00:02:06.040 specific size roughly one point four times the mass of our Sun, they explode 21 00:02:06.159 --> 00:02:12.199 in the thermonuclear supernova event. And since they always explode at roughly the same 22 00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:16.599 mass, they explode at roughly the same level of luminosity, and consequently they 23 00:02:16.639 --> 00:02:22.960 can be used as standard candles to measure cosmic distances across the universe. It's 24 00:02:23.000 --> 00:02:25.719 a bit like looking at a row of street lights down a road. Even 25 00:02:25.719 --> 00:02:30.560 though you know they all have the same intrinsic brightness, the more distant lights 26 00:02:30.599 --> 00:02:35.319 will appear fainter than the narrow ones simply because they're further away, and that 27 00:02:35.479 --> 00:02:38.919 ratio can be determined using a simple formula known as the inverse square law, 28 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:46.840 and astronomers use this change in apparent brightness to determine cosmic distances for each super 29 00:02:46.840 --> 00:02:50.479 and ova. They combine its distance with the measurement of its red shift, 30 00:02:50.759 --> 00:02:53.240 that is, how quickly it's moving away from Earth due to the expansion of 31 00:02:53.280 --> 00:02:58.680 space time. Put simply, what the survey has been trying to tell us 32 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:04.120 is whether or not dark energy density has remained constant or changed over time. 33 00:03:05.199 --> 00:03:08.840 That's important because that will help determine the ultimate fate of the universe. As 34 00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:14.800 the universe expands, its matter density goes down. Now, according to the 35 00:03:14.840 --> 00:03:19.280 standard cosmological model, the density of dark energy in the universe is supposed to 36 00:03:19.280 --> 00:03:23.639 be constant, which means it doesn't dilute as the universe expands. And if 37 00:03:23.680 --> 00:03:29.120 this is true, the parameter represented by the letter W should equal minus one. 38 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:35.639 But the latest Dark Energy Survey results found that W actually equals minus zero 39 00:03:35.719 --> 00:03:39.360 point eight zero plus or minus zero point one eight. Now, combined with 40 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:45.840 priminary data from the European Space Energy's Plank telescope, W does reach minus one 41 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:52.800 within error bars. So W is tantalizingly close but not exactly on minus one. 42 00:03:53.560 --> 00:03:58.199 If the universe is expanding and the dark energy density remains constant. It 43 00:03:58.280 --> 00:04:02.039 means the total proportion of dark energy must be increasing as the volume of the 44 00:04:02.159 --> 00:04:09.080 universe increases. The findings reported in the Astrophysical Journal covered some fourteen hundred and 45 00:04:09.159 --> 00:04:14.680 ninety nine high redshift Type one A supernovae using the full five year data set 46 00:04:14.800 --> 00:04:18.360 of the Dark Energy Survey, So while the findings are close to what was 47 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:24.240 predicted, they're not a perfect match. That means astronomers will need to develop 48 00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:29.040 a more complex model in order to determine if dark energy does indeed vary with 49 00:04:29.199 --> 00:04:32.920 time. One of the studies authors, doctor Annelie Muller from Swinburne University, 50 00:04:33.079 --> 00:04:39.279 says the latest findings at least help to reduce uncertainties to new low levels, 51 00:04:39.879 --> 00:04:45.000 but she admits more data will be needed. So the Dark Energy Survey is 52 00:04:45.079 --> 00:04:49.680 this international effort that has to stun over a decade. We basically took images 53 00:04:49.839 --> 00:04:55.839 from a wonderful telescope in Chile called the Victor M. Blanco Telescope, and 54 00:04:56.439 --> 00:05:01.800 we image the southern sky in certain parts. So we try to understand what's 55 00:05:01.800 --> 00:05:08.680 the effect of dark energy in our universe with different probes or different ways of 56 00:05:08.759 --> 00:05:13.720 measuring its effect. One of them is using one is supernova, which are 57 00:05:13.839 --> 00:05:18.319 these bright exploding stars in far aware galaxies, which allows us to actually measure 58 00:05:18.439 --> 00:05:23.480 directly the effects of dark energy. Now, what is the efect of dark 59 00:05:23.560 --> 00:05:28.439 energy in the universe. Basically, the universe is expanding in an accelerated way, 60 00:05:28.879 --> 00:05:33.879 and we say to explain this thing that we're measuring that the reason is 61 00:05:33.920 --> 00:05:40.879 that there see some dark energy that makes this universe expand in an accelerated fashion. 62 00:05:41.160 --> 00:05:46.360 That one is supernova are amazing objects. So if we want to study 63 00:05:46.600 --> 00:05:50.279 how the universe is becoming bigger, you have two choices. Either measure where 64 00:05:50.279 --> 00:05:56.319 a galaxy far away is and then wait millions of years to see how how 65 00:05:56.399 --> 00:05:59.720 much is that's moved away, or because we want to do this in our 66 00:05:59.759 --> 00:06:03.759 life time, we actually use what we call a standard or a standardizable candle. 67 00:06:03.920 --> 00:06:09.800 These are objects that shined roughly in the same way. For example, 68 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:14.000 when superannour when they explode, we kind of know how bright they are. 69 00:06:14.079 --> 00:06:18.319 So basically, if you have a light bulb that has the same power close 70 00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:23.600 by or far away, the difference of the brightness that you see here on 71 00:06:23.639 --> 00:06:28.120 Earth will be linked to that distance. To that object and type one and 72 00:06:28.160 --> 00:06:33.120 supernova is exactly that, but astrophysical, very far away, very extreme perfect. 73 00:06:33.240 --> 00:06:36.759 So it allows us to measure distances to these objects, and together with 74 00:06:36.879 --> 00:06:42.480 distances we measure redchet, which is kind of an equivalence of like a velocity, 75 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:46.240 and with that we can actually map how the universe is becoming bigger. 76 00:06:46.360 --> 00:06:49.160 That, however, assumes that type one a sup and are they really are 77 00:06:49.240 --> 00:06:54.279 all the same mass or roughly the same mass, and so really do explode 78 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:57.959 with the same degrave of luminosity? How comfortable are you with that? Oh? 79 00:06:58.160 --> 00:07:02.519 So we thought, so one is supernova our standardizable because we think their 80 00:07:02.519 --> 00:07:09.759 brightness is power by nikols fifty six, So they are not perfect standard candles. 81 00:07:09.759 --> 00:07:12.879 They're not all exactly the same, and we know this for a while. 82 00:07:13.120 --> 00:07:15.439 They are what we call it standardizable. So in the nineteen nineties we 83 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:20.120 already knew that we needed some corrections on this type one in supernova to really 84 00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:25.639 get those distances very precisely. So we know, for example, that bluer 85 00:07:25.759 --> 00:07:30.680 supernova are brighter, and depending how long they last, you can also correct 86 00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:35.319 for that brightness. So we are comfortable with these for corrections for the measurements 87 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:40.040 and we have others doing the analysis more and more information. For example, 88 00:07:40.120 --> 00:07:43.519 now we know a little bit more about some of the type one in supernova. 89 00:07:43.600 --> 00:07:47.399 Depending in the galaxies that they leave, they are actually slightly brighter or 90 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:51.279 teamer, and we make these corrections into our analysis. So although they are 91 00:07:51.319 --> 00:07:56.000 not perfect, they are still the best probe that we have right now to 92 00:07:56.079 --> 00:07:59.959 measure this direct extension. I'm pretty comfortable by using them. We have been 93 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:03.319 using them for twenty five years, and there is an old price involved well, 94 00:08:03.360 --> 00:08:07.879 the things like very onacoustic ostellations. Could they be used a rule absolutely. 95 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:11.759 So the idea with the dark Energy Survey is to have different probes to 96 00:08:11.839 --> 00:08:15.519 actually check the effect of dark energy in our universe. And what it's interesting 97 00:08:15.639 --> 00:08:22.199 is like VAO or the varianatristic oscillations or the large scale structure measurements can help 98 00:08:22.319 --> 00:08:26.879 us to constrain as well that effect of dark energy in our universe, but 99 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:30.759 in a different way. So each of the measurements that we use and also 100 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:35.960 weeklensing for example, tell us something slightly different in a different way. So 101 00:08:35.039 --> 00:08:39.840 those results combined is what makes our constraint of dark energy so powerful. So 102 00:08:39.879 --> 00:08:46.279 for example, The publication that we released last week that we're very excited about 103 00:08:46.519 --> 00:08:50.080 is the tightest constraints on the effect of dark energy in our universe, combining 104 00:08:50.240 --> 00:08:56.679 type one is supernova from the Dark Energy Survey and measurements from the Satellite Plank 105 00:08:56.879 --> 00:09:01.799 from twenty twenty. So together these two gives really really tight constraint and that 106 00:09:01.840 --> 00:09:07.000 can straight is w Wickle's minor zero point eight zero plus or minus zero point 107 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:11.279 one away? There isn't it? Yeah, So we can we can explain 108 00:09:13.200 --> 00:09:18.000 what we're measuring with different models. So the canonical model that we're using in 109 00:09:18.639 --> 00:09:24.240 cosmology is what we call the flat landa CVM, so lambda is a cosmological 110 00:09:24.279 --> 00:09:28.879 constant something that is not changing with cosmic times and called dark matter, which 111 00:09:28.919 --> 00:09:33.000 is dark matter that is basically not interacting too much. If we use that 112 00:09:33.080 --> 00:09:35.799 model to try to explain our observations, we have, as you said, 113 00:09:37.919 --> 00:09:43.159 a flat land of CVM a constraint. But we can also try to constrain 114 00:09:43.279 --> 00:09:48.480 the data we have with other types of models. And one of the models 115 00:09:48.480 --> 00:09:52.559 that we tried and actually almost the preferred one but barely, is the dark 116 00:09:52.679 --> 00:09:58.120 energy that is changing with cosmic times. So through the evolution of the universe 117 00:09:58.240 --> 00:10:01.799 its density is changing, and that it could be very exciting if confirmed, 118 00:10:01.840 --> 00:10:05.759 because that means that the universe will be slightly younger than we're saying, and 119 00:10:05.840 --> 00:10:07.840 it will give us an idea as well. What could dark energy be, 120 00:10:07.840 --> 00:10:11.120 because for the time being, we don't know whether it's a constant or something 121 00:10:11.240 --> 00:10:16.440 changing with cosmic time, and that can actually limit the number of theories that 122 00:10:16.559 --> 00:10:20.799 we can used to say what dark energy is. You've been making inferences on 123 00:10:20.879 --> 00:10:24.799 the well the teams, you make inferences on the energy density of the universe. 124 00:10:26.159 --> 00:10:28.759 As a result of all this, in order to maintain a constant, 125 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:35.000 the universe as it's expanding has to be getting less dense, but dark energy 126 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:37.600 then has to be getting more dance. Yes exactly, so that would be 127 00:10:37.639 --> 00:10:41.320 in the case that it's a constant, but it could be the other way 128 00:10:41.320 --> 00:10:45.799 around, and we are trying to measure this exactly. For the time being, 129 00:10:45.840 --> 00:10:50.399 we're really constraining dark energy between being a constant what number of that concept, 130 00:10:50.399 --> 00:10:54.279 But because we still don't know if it's minus one or minor zero point 131 00:10:54.399 --> 00:11:00.000 ninety nine or minor zero point nine five, or whether it's changing with time 132 00:11:00.000 --> 00:11:03.159 and with costic time which I think that will be an amazing measuremental health. 133 00:11:03.320 --> 00:11:07.759 The importance of this isn't just to understand our universe as it is now, 134 00:11:09.080 --> 00:11:13.159 but also to help determine what the ultimate fat of the universe will be exactly. 135 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:18.240 The more we know about the universe bus the more we can actually extrapolate 136 00:11:18.360 --> 00:11:22.320 towards the future. So this is part of what we do. We're kind 137 00:11:22.320 --> 00:11:26.799 of historians, but also predictors of how the universe is evolving. So I 138 00:11:26.879 --> 00:11:30.279 think it's a pretty cool job. And right now, I guess the universe 139 00:11:30.279 --> 00:11:31.840 looks like it's going to be a cold, dark place. Just our local 140 00:11:31.919 --> 00:11:35.799 galaxy group will be visible in the future, yes, well in the very 141 00:11:35.919 --> 00:11:39.440 very very far away future, so we won't be around to see that one. 142 00:11:39.480 --> 00:11:45.120 Definitely. Yeah, for the time being, it will be very slow. 143 00:11:45.559 --> 00:11:48.840 Nothing you're worry about, No, not at all. The survey, 144 00:11:48.000 --> 00:11:52.320 the way you're conducting it, it's grown dramatically. There were only what a 145 00:11:52.399 --> 00:11:58.240 small group of stars in the beginning that were isolated and used for the measurements. 146 00:11:58.360 --> 00:12:01.600 Now that are almost fifteen hundred. Yes, it's really amazing. Twenty 147 00:12:01.600 --> 00:12:05.279 five years ago when all these type one is supernovas started to be used to 148 00:12:05.519 --> 00:12:11.159 probe the effect of dark energy. There was only around sixty fifty two supernovas 149 00:12:11.399 --> 00:12:16.159 in the type one is supranova, and now we have one thousand, four 150 00:12:16.279 --> 00:12:20.559 hundred ninety nine Type one ispanova that go into these measurements. So it's a 151 00:12:20.679 --> 00:12:24.840 huge leap from twenty five years ago to now and a huge effort for a 152 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:28.720 lot of communities around the world trying to get this type one in supernova and 153 00:12:28.919 --> 00:12:33.159 measuring them very precisely, because when you think about cosmology, we're really trying 154 00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:37.200 to get the best measurements that we can. This takes a lot of observing 155 00:12:37.279 --> 00:12:39.279 time to do all this. That must be getting you in trouble with fellow 156 00:12:39.320 --> 00:12:43.919 astronomers who they want to use the same telescope for other things. I guess 157 00:12:43.960 --> 00:12:48.679 that's where new telescopes like Nancy Grace Roaming come in. Yes, absolutely so. 158 00:12:48.840 --> 00:12:52.639 One thing that is interesting that the Dark Nary Survey took images for five 159 00:12:52.759 --> 00:12:56.679 years in seasons and parts of that year to get the supernova one A. 160 00:12:56.960 --> 00:13:03.080 Now we did an analysis, the traditional analysis that we do usually in cosmology 161 00:13:03.200 --> 00:13:07.679 that we classify the supernova with a spectroscopy. So why do we want classification 162 00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:13.080 because not all supernova are Type one A, so we only want type one 163 00:13:13.080 --> 00:13:16.240 A because they are the ones that we can use to measure distance. So 164 00:13:16.399 --> 00:13:20.720 if you would classify them using the traditional approach that is using spectroscopy, which 165 00:13:20.759 --> 00:13:26.480 is basically having this huge telescope observing the type one supernova and getting their spectras 166 00:13:26.519 --> 00:13:33.080 or basically the decomposition of the light into the distant wavelane, you really only 167 00:13:33.159 --> 00:13:37.879 get a small percentage of classification because we don't have enough telescope time to do 168 00:13:37.960 --> 00:13:41.960 that. Spectroscopic resources are really really scarce, and also you need that these 169 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:46.879 supreneurs are bright, very bright, and also you need to get that information 170 00:13:46.120 --> 00:13:50.080 when they're signing brightly. So this is like a couple of weeks of a 171 00:13:50.120 --> 00:13:54.600 window time windows. So we don't want to take all the telescope in the 172 00:13:54.679 --> 00:13:58.559 world, so we change a little bit how we did this analysis. This 173 00:13:58.799 --> 00:14:03.000 time. Instead of use in spectroscopy, we use machine learning algorithms to actually 174 00:14:03.000 --> 00:14:07.639 select this type one in supernova using only the brightness evolution over time that we 175 00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:13.600 already had, so we didn't need to take extra information from other telescopes. 176 00:14:13.679 --> 00:14:18.399 We could use directly the data from the darkenery survey and we actually improve that 177 00:14:18.519 --> 00:14:22.720 sample by three times what we could have with other methods. So I think 178 00:14:22.759 --> 00:14:26.639 this is a pretty big thing for us, is that we're really pioneering methods 179 00:14:26.679 --> 00:14:31.240 to get more type one is supernova from the same data using less resources. 180 00:14:31.279 --> 00:14:37.919 And this would be super important for other telescopes like the Ruben or Roman in 181 00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:41.240 the future. This is looking at the flux of the take of the like 182 00:14:41.720 --> 00:14:46.600 using photometry, yes exactly. We basically get the photometry evolution over time, 183 00:14:46.679 --> 00:14:50.159 so this we call a like curve of brightness evolution over time. And with 184 00:14:50.320 --> 00:14:56.000 that information alone, we can actually select which are the type one is supernova, 185 00:14:56.200 --> 00:15:00.120 get the probability of in type one ispernova, and actually use it in 186 00:15:00.159 --> 00:15:03.759 our cosmology analysis. And we have shown that this way of doing the selection 187 00:15:05.120 --> 00:15:09.720 that many people didn't believe it was possible, is actually super precise and the 188 00:15:09.759 --> 00:15:15.519 contamination from other objects that from a misclassification is so tiny that it really doesn't 189 00:15:15.519 --> 00:15:18.720 affect our results. And this is where we see Reuben and Nancy Grace Roman 190 00:15:18.799 --> 00:15:24.200 come in exactly. So especially I am very involved with the Rubin Observatory because 191 00:15:24.360 --> 00:15:31.639 we expect over ten years to get every night up to ten million detections of 192 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:37.080 things changing in the sky, and this will include supernova variables are active, 193 00:15:37.120 --> 00:15:41.320 guy active, nuclear etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. And from this we really 194 00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:45.840 need to get those type one in supernova for the cosmology, and we expect 195 00:15:45.879 --> 00:15:48.879 to get millions of them. But how do we get those millions from this 196 00:15:50.159 --> 00:15:56.120 huge dataset? And these methods that we're pioneering with the Darkenery Survey are exactly 197 00:15:56.159 --> 00:16:00.159 the answers for us getting the most out of Rubin in the and the Anglo 198 00:16:00.200 --> 00:16:03.399 Australian Telescope has a little role to play as well. I believe yes, 199 00:16:03.720 --> 00:16:07.960 So it was really exciting. So we have the Australian Dark Energy Survey that 200 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:11.799 we call as this. Of course we did a very important job here with 201 00:16:11.960 --> 00:16:17.399 the aat the Angle Australian Telescope. So we use for cosmology, as I 202 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:22.559 told you, distances derived from the supernova directly from that like curve brightness evolution 203 00:16:22.679 --> 00:16:26.240 over time. But to study how the universe is expanding, we also need 204 00:16:26.360 --> 00:16:32.200 wretches and retches we usually get them from the galaxy that hosts those type one 205 00:16:32.320 --> 00:16:37.559 esperana, these type one and supernour stars that brightly explodes they live in galaxies 206 00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:41.600 and we actually get a spectra from the galaxy with the AAP to actually get 207 00:16:41.639 --> 00:16:47.200 the red chests that go into our cosmology analysis. So this was a beautiful 208 00:16:47.240 --> 00:16:52.759 program that we beat over one hundred nights in the Siting Spring Observatory, and 209 00:16:52.799 --> 00:16:56.919 I can tell you how much I enjoy observing there with the war on bungles 210 00:16:56.000 --> 00:17:00.519 around me. It's an amazing trace to go when you talk about if you're 211 00:17:00.559 --> 00:17:04.079 talking about how fast and object is moving away from us exactly, it tells 212 00:17:04.119 --> 00:17:08.160 you how much the universe is expanded, or how much space time is expanded. 213 00:17:08.319 --> 00:17:12.680 Yes, and we need that together with distances to really measure that effect 214 00:17:12.720 --> 00:17:17.240 of arkenners. So the two ingredients are important. Getting those type one in 215 00:17:17.359 --> 00:17:22.559 supernova and measuring how they evolve with time, and getting those wretchies to actually 216 00:17:22.680 --> 00:17:27.440 understand that expansion. As we grow up in these cosmology measurements, we need 217 00:17:27.480 --> 00:17:33.279 more and more information. So the variety Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and 218 00:17:33.319 --> 00:17:37.720 Time. We will have an spectroscopic counterpart programs in the Foremost telescope that it's 219 00:17:37.759 --> 00:17:42.559 called TIDES the program, and that will be the main role of the formal 220 00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:48.480 telescope with Rubens in this time domain. Astrum Roman will be in space, 221 00:17:48.519 --> 00:17:52.359 and it's pretty exciting because it's actually reaching wavelengths of life that we cannot get 222 00:17:52.400 --> 00:17:57.119 here on Earth eachily. So all these three informations will be highly complimentary. 223 00:17:57.240 --> 00:18:02.680 But we will also have data from DEAFI, which is a survey getting the 224 00:18:02.759 --> 00:18:07.640 large constructure in the northern hemisphere, and we would get more and more information 225 00:18:07.799 --> 00:18:11.799 as we go through times from different groups of researchers that we can combine all 226 00:18:11.839 --> 00:18:15.400 together to constrain the effect of dark energy in our universe. So it's a 227 00:18:15.519 --> 00:18:22.200 huge collabariative effort and it's very very international. Based on what you know so 228 00:18:22.440 --> 00:18:26.880 far, what can you tell us about dark energy? So dark energy is 229 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:33.279 we have confirmed that their energy is actually there. Our observations can only be 230 00:18:33.400 --> 00:18:37.359 explained with the presence of dark energy. This is one of the most important 231 00:18:37.359 --> 00:18:42.240 parts and the second part and I think that's like the tantalizing hint that we 232 00:18:42.440 --> 00:18:48.319 have that dark energy may not be the constant that for twenty years we have 233 00:18:48.480 --> 00:18:52.039 thought it is, but maybe is something that is varying with cosmic time. 234 00:18:52.119 --> 00:18:56.920 And I think that's really really exciting. However, we need to wait for 235 00:18:56.000 --> 00:19:02.000 Reuben and Roban to be online, taking they and do this analysis to actually 236 00:19:02.119 --> 00:19:04.720 confirm this. So the truth is, for the time being, we don't 237 00:19:04.720 --> 00:19:08.279 know what our energy is. But the more we measure its effect on the 238 00:19:08.359 --> 00:19:11.440 universe, the more we will be able to say, oh, it cannot 239 00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:15.039 be this, it cannot be that, it cannot be that, then it 240 00:19:15.119 --> 00:19:18.319 must be this, and then try to get more measurements to confirm it. 241 00:19:18.440 --> 00:19:22.839 So slowly we're peeling that knowledge from the universe. What is that the idea 242 00:19:23.039 --> 00:19:27.240 that what's happening here is more dependent on our position in the universe. For 243 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:33.039 example, the readings will be different if we're located in a loud void rather 244 00:19:33.119 --> 00:19:37.359 than in the middle of a filament in a cosmic wave. Yees. So 245 00:19:37.440 --> 00:19:41.000 there's a lot of people trying to probe this. For the time being, 246 00:19:41.039 --> 00:19:45.640 we haven't found any evidence that the universe looks different from one place to the 247 00:19:45.680 --> 00:19:51.519 other. So we have the cosmological principle where for us, the universe is 248 00:19:51.559 --> 00:19:56.160 the same wherever you are have directions. Yeah, basically you can have some 249 00:19:56.319 --> 00:20:00.359 local changes. For example, we will leave in a galaxy group. There 250 00:20:00.400 --> 00:20:04.400 are some velocities from these local groups so if you measure things close by, 251 00:20:04.519 --> 00:20:07.480 you need actually to correct for it. But this is very local. This 252 00:20:07.599 --> 00:20:11.599 is not in the large scale of plain. So in the large scale of 253 00:20:11.640 --> 00:20:17.200 things looks all the same. Okay, so the void doesn't come into it. 254 00:20:17.960 --> 00:20:21.559 Yeah, until now we haven't. Until now, we haven't found any 255 00:20:21.559 --> 00:20:25.799 evidence that that's the case. An important role in all this is that played 256 00:20:25.799 --> 00:20:29.160 by artificial intelligence and machine learning. Tell me about it. Yes, it's 257 00:20:29.359 --> 00:20:33.880 very exciting because these are very new technologies that we're seeing their effect in our 258 00:20:33.920 --> 00:20:38.480 society. We have all heard about a deputy and all these machine learning recommendation 259 00:20:38.640 --> 00:20:42.400 systems that we have nowadays in our day to day's life. But how can 260 00:20:42.440 --> 00:20:48.720 we use this technology to do science and to really harness the power of these 261 00:20:48.839 --> 00:20:52.160 huge data sets that we make so much effort in getting. And this is 262 00:20:52.200 --> 00:20:56.640 exactly what we did. We took data from the Darkenedy survey. We developed 263 00:20:56.680 --> 00:21:00.559 a classification algorithm using machine learning. So I did developed the main ones using 264 00:21:00.640 --> 00:21:06.759 deep learning algorithms, and we were able to use this technology to really really 265 00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:11.680 precisely classify this that one needs to bring on. So it's pretty amazing that 266 00:21:11.759 --> 00:21:15.720 this technology can be in our day to day, but can also be in 267 00:21:15.759 --> 00:21:19.200 these high precision measurements of how the universe is becoming bigger. So when you 268 00:21:19.279 --> 00:21:22.960 think about it, it's a little bit mind blowing. Not one of the 269 00:21:22.960 --> 00:21:27.640 big scary things about artificial intelligence is it's a black box. We often don't 270 00:21:27.839 --> 00:21:33.480 understand how it reaches its conclusions. That's going to be especially concerning for science. 271 00:21:33.759 --> 00:21:40.279 Yes, so a big part of my research is interpretibility, so understanding 272 00:21:40.480 --> 00:21:45.319 how the machine learning algorithms classify objects and how robust this is. So we 273 00:21:45.440 --> 00:21:49.839 did a lot, a lot of tests trying to break the classifier and the 274 00:21:49.880 --> 00:21:56.319 machine learning algorithms to see if we were doing something that affected the cosmological results 275 00:21:56.319 --> 00:22:00.680 that we would get. And we tried for many years, not only myself 276 00:22:00.759 --> 00:22:03.119 but other groups in the UK and in the US, and we couldn't break 277 00:22:03.160 --> 00:22:10.200 it. So we were really really careful trying to get this machine learning algorithm 278 00:22:10.319 --> 00:22:12.599 in a way that is not only a black box, but it's something that 279 00:22:12.680 --> 00:22:17.440 you is robust and you can trust its outputs. But of course, if 280 00:22:17.480 --> 00:22:22.240 you're curious about becoming not a black box in machine learning, there are so 281 00:22:22.359 --> 00:22:26.200 many things that we are doing right now to try to open the knowledge on 282 00:22:26.480 --> 00:22:30.119 what the machine learning algorithm is paying attention on, or how confident it is 283 00:22:30.559 --> 00:22:34.039 when you don't, would you give it, for example, for training dogs 284 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:37.240 and cats, and you give it an image of a sebra and us what 285 00:22:37.359 --> 00:22:41.839 it is. So these are all stories that we're actually doing, not only 286 00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:45.880 because we're curious, but also because for us it's important in cosmology to be 287 00:22:47.359 --> 00:22:52.160 sure that if the output makes sense. Let's doctor Nie Smuller from Swinburne University 288 00:22:52.200 --> 00:22:59.359 in Melbourne. And this is space time still to come. Titans, magic 289 00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:04.240 islands only explained, and the failed pereguine lun Lander finally ends its mission, 290 00:23:04.440 --> 00:23:08.880 burning up in the atmosphere above Australia in the South Pacific. All that and 291 00:23:08.960 --> 00:23:30.839 more still to calm on space time. Satan's largest moon, Titan, is 292 00:23:30.880 --> 00:23:34.640 the only world in our Solar System other than Earth where clouds form liquid rain, 293 00:23:34.920 --> 00:23:41.400 which then pours into rivers and flows into lakes and seas. But untitaned, 294 00:23:41.440 --> 00:23:45.839 the liquid isn't water, it's ethane and methane. Untightened it's so called 295 00:23:45.960 --> 00:23:51.559 the water is frozen solid, forming part of the bedrock. Now in New 296 00:23:51.599 --> 00:23:56.079 Steady claims ethane and methane and other organic compounds on Titan can accumulate on the 297 00:23:56.200 --> 00:24:00.640 surface as chunks, and they may even be harving off like glaciers at the 298 00:24:00.759 --> 00:24:07.079 edges of the Saturnian Moon's methane lakes, forming the ephemeral magic islands. Astronomers 299 00:24:07.119 --> 00:24:11.559 have long wondered about these magic islands, which appear in some images and then 300 00:24:11.720 --> 00:24:17.000 disappear, And they don't always appear at the same spots, but seem to 301 00:24:17.079 --> 00:24:22.400 float across the lake's surface. It's all incredibly mysterious. The findings, reported 302 00:24:22.400 --> 00:24:29.039 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, describe how Titan's magic islands are likely to 303 00:24:29.079 --> 00:24:36.599 be floating icebergs, chunks of porous frozen organic solids. A hazy orange atmosphere 304 00:24:36.799 --> 00:24:41.680 fifty percent thicker than Earth's and rich in methane and other carbon based or organic 305 00:24:41.759 --> 00:24:48.000 molecules blankets Titan. When the European Space Agencies Huygen's lander descended from NASA's Cassini 306 00:24:48.079 --> 00:24:52.160 mission down on the surface of Titan, it touched down in what it later 307 00:24:52.240 --> 00:24:59.799 described as feeling like wet sand. But the strangest thing with a Cassini radar 308 00:24:59.839 --> 00:25:03.640 in images of shifting bright spots on the sea surface of Titan, which appear 309 00:25:03.720 --> 00:25:08.559 a last from just a few hours to several weeks or longer. Scientists first 310 00:25:08.599 --> 00:25:14.559 spotted these ephemeral magic islands back in twenty fourteen with the Cassini Huygens mission and 311 00:25:14.640 --> 00:25:18.960 have been trying to work out exactly what they are ever since. Previous studies 312 00:25:18.960 --> 00:25:22.359 suggested they could be phantom islands caused by waves, or real islands made of 313 00:25:22.359 --> 00:25:27.759 suspended solids, floating solids, or simply bubbles of nitrogen gas. The new 314 00:25:27.799 --> 00:25:33.880 studies lead author Jingtingyu from the University of Texas and San Antonio, wanted to 315 00:25:33.920 --> 00:25:38.039 investigate whether the magic islands could actually be organics floating on the surface, like 316 00:25:38.119 --> 00:25:44.720 pummets from volcanic eruptions floating on water here on Earth. Titan's upper atmosphere is 317 00:25:44.799 --> 00:25:49.640 dense with diverse organic molecules. These molecules can clump together, they can freeze, 318 00:25:49.680 --> 00:25:53.799 and they can fall down onto the Moon's surface, and that includes falling 319 00:25:53.880 --> 00:25:59.599 onto eerily smooth rivers and lakes of liquid methane and ethane, which have waves 320 00:25:59.640 --> 00:26:03.000 only a few millimeters high. You and her colleagues were interested in the fate 321 00:26:03.039 --> 00:26:08.240 of these organic clumps once they reached Titan's hydrocarbon lakes. She wanted to know 322 00:26:08.480 --> 00:26:12.599 whether they would float or sink. To find an answer, the team first 323 00:26:12.599 --> 00:26:18.880 investigated whether Titan's organic solids would simply dissolve in the Moon's methane lakes, because 324 00:26:18.920 --> 00:26:23.799 these lakes are already saturated with organic particles. They determined that the falling solids 325 00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:29.279 wouldn't dissolve when they reached the liquid. The thing is, titans lakes and 326 00:26:29.400 --> 00:26:33.799 seas are primarily methane and ethane, both of which have low surface tension that 327 00:26:33.920 --> 00:26:37.680 makes it harder for solids to float. The models suggested that most of the 328 00:26:37.720 --> 00:26:42.880 frozen solids would have been too dense and the surface tension too low to create 329 00:26:42.960 --> 00:26:47.920 Titan's magic islands, unless, that is, the clumps were porous, like 330 00:26:47.960 --> 00:26:52.880 squished cheese. If these icy clumps were large enough and had the right ratio 331 00:26:52.960 --> 00:26:56.759 of holes and narrow voids to solids, then the liquid methane would only seep 332 00:26:56.799 --> 00:27:00.720 in slowly, possibly slowly enough for them clumps to linger on the surface for 333 00:27:00.799 --> 00:27:07.400 a while before becoming saturated and sinking. The author's modeling suggest that individual clumps 334 00:27:07.400 --> 00:27:11.039 are likely too small to float by themselves, but if enough clumps are massed 335 00:27:11.079 --> 00:27:15.920 together near the shoreline, larger pieces could break off and float away, similar 336 00:27:17.000 --> 00:27:22.319 to how glaciers carve off on Earth. So with a combination of bigger size 337 00:27:22.400 --> 00:27:27.200 and the right porosity, these organic icebergs could well explain the magic island phenomena. 338 00:27:27.920 --> 00:27:33.240 And in addition to the magic islands, a thin layer of frozen solids 339 00:27:33.279 --> 00:27:38.759 coating Titans seas and lakes would also explain the liquid body's unusual smoothness, And 340 00:27:38.880 --> 00:27:48.039 so these findings could explain two of Titan's many mysteries this space time still to 341 00:27:48.079 --> 00:27:52.599 come, the Pereguine Lunar Lander breaks up in the skies above Australia and the 342 00:27:52.640 --> 00:27:56.559 South Pacific, and later in the science report, Chinese scientists say they've been 343 00:27:56.559 --> 00:28:03.160 experimenting with a new mutant strain of Cover nineteen that is guaranteed one hundred percent 344 00:28:03.279 --> 00:28:23.960 lethal. All that and more still to come on Spacetime Mission managers have now 345 00:28:25.000 --> 00:28:29.720 confirmed that the troubled Pereguine Luna Lander made a fire return to Worth on Thursday, 346 00:28:29.839 --> 00:28:33.759 burning up in the skies over eastern Australia in the South Pacific during atmospheric 347 00:28:33.839 --> 00:28:40.359 reentry. The two hundred and eighty three kilogram spacecraft had been launched ten days 348 00:28:40.400 --> 00:28:45.119 earlier as the primary payload aboard the maiden Thud of the United Launch Alliances new 349 00:28:45.240 --> 00:28:51.160 Vulcan Centre rocket. Included aboard the Lander were a series of NASA experiments, 350 00:28:51.359 --> 00:28:53.880 as well as the partial remains of at least seventy people and a dog as 351 00:28:53.960 --> 00:28:59.680 part of a space burial promotion. While the launch of the Vulcan Center and 352 00:29:00.119 --> 00:29:06.880 load deployment went smoothly, the Pereguine Lander began experiencing problems soon afterwards. Pereguine's 353 00:29:06.920 --> 00:29:12.160 operators astrobotics say technical anomalies began when Pereguine failed to orient its top solar panel 354 00:29:12.279 --> 00:29:18.319 array towards the Sun in order to change its batteries at the same time it 355 00:29:18.400 --> 00:29:23.200 was drifting off course, and then suddenly communications were temporarily lost. Eventually, 356 00:29:23.279 --> 00:29:27.720 engineers were able to re establish contact and reorient the spacecraft to keep it tilted 357 00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:33.119 in the right direction to keep its solar panels pointing towards the Sun. The 358 00:29:33.240 --> 00:29:37.799 problem was eventually traced to a faulty valve in part of the spacecraft's propulsion system. 359 00:29:38.000 --> 00:29:44.319 An image taken by an onboard camera showed the multi layer insulation badly damaged 360 00:29:44.319 --> 00:29:48.720 by what appears to have been some sort of propulsion system explosion, resulting in 361 00:29:48.759 --> 00:29:52.599 a dramatic loss of fuel and in the process doing the mission to fail. 362 00:29:53.440 --> 00:29:57.079 It means Peregrine would never have had enough fuel to make a soft landing on 363 00:29:57.160 --> 00:30:02.200 the Moon. While Paragua and could have been commanded to crash onto the lunar 364 00:30:02.319 --> 00:30:07.279 surface or left drifting in space, Astrobotic instead elected to return the probe to 365 00:30:07.400 --> 00:30:11.519 Earth so it could burn up in the atmosphere and prevent it from adding to 366 00:30:11.559 --> 00:30:15.000 the growing problem of space junk. While the Paragua mission is now over for 367 00:30:15.079 --> 00:30:21.039 Astrobotic, all is not last. Astrobotic have another chance to reach the Moon 368 00:30:21.079 --> 00:30:26.920 in November when their Griffin spacecraft lander transporting NASA's Viper Lunar rover, will attempt 369 00:30:26.960 --> 00:30:30.279 a turn landing on the lunar surface at the South Pole. We'll keep you 370 00:30:30.359 --> 00:30:52.519 informed this Space time and time out to take a brief look at some of 371 00:30:52.519 --> 00:30:56.720 the other stories making news and science this week with a science report. Ice 372 00:30:56.720 --> 00:31:00.319 sheets around the world have been retreating over the last few decades, but a 373 00:31:00.400 --> 00:31:06.119 new study shows that the Greenland ice sheets have been shrinking at an especially fast 374 00:31:06.279 --> 00:31:10.960 rate since the nineteen nineties. The findings were reported in the journal Nature, 375 00:31:11.079 --> 00:31:15.799 are based on new satellite observations showing that Greenland has lost more than one thousand 376 00:31:15.839 --> 00:31:21.519 gigatons of ice since nineteen eighty five. The new observation showed the extent of 377 00:31:21.559 --> 00:31:26.559 this retreat. They find that Greenland has lost about five thousand and ninety one 378 00:31:26.599 --> 00:31:30.079 square kilometers of ice cover just in the last four decades. In fact, 379 00:31:30.119 --> 00:31:33.599 the analysis shows the ice sheet shrenk by an average of two hundred and eighteen 380 00:31:33.640 --> 00:31:40.480 square kilometers every year since January two thousand. The authors say this loss doesn't 381 00:31:40.519 --> 00:31:45.000 appear to substantially contribute to sea level rise because the ice is already floating on 382 00:31:45.039 --> 00:31:48.519 the water, but it may be playing a critical part in ocean circulation patterns 383 00:31:48.839 --> 00:31:56.359 consequently, how heat energy is distributed across the planet well. Just four years 384 00:31:56.400 --> 00:32:00.279 after the start of the COVID nineteen pandemic in Wuhan, China, Chinese scientists 385 00:32:00.279 --> 00:32:05.920 have confirmed that they're experimenting with a new mutant strain of COVID nineteen that has 386 00:32:05.960 --> 00:32:10.000 proven itself to be one hundred percent lethal in humanized mice. The deadly new 387 00:32:10.119 --> 00:32:15.559 virus, known as GXP two V attacks the brain after first infecting the lungs, 388 00:32:15.640 --> 00:32:20.759 bones, eyes, and trachea, with victims dying within eight days. 389 00:32:21.480 --> 00:32:25.480 A report on the preprint website bio Archive states that in the days before their 390 00:32:25.559 --> 00:32:30.519 deaths, victims lost a lot of weight, exhibited a hunched posture, and 391 00:32:30.640 --> 00:32:36.319 moved extremely sluggishly, with their eyes turning completely white on the day before death. 392 00:32:36.920 --> 00:32:40.599 An ex post by Professor Francois Balu, an epidemiology expert at the University 393 00:32:40.640 --> 00:32:46.319 College London's Geneics Institute, slammed the research, describing it as terrible and scientifically 394 00:32:46.480 --> 00:32:52.480 totally pointless. Others say it could be a new biological weapon. Official figures 395 00:32:52.519 --> 00:32:58.799 suggest over seven million people have already been killed by the COVID nineteen coronavirus since 396 00:32:58.839 --> 00:33:02.960 it was first detected among workers at China's Willhand Institute of Virology back in September 397 00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:08.319 twenty nineteen. However, the World Heath Organization estimates the true death toll is 398 00:33:08.440 --> 00:33:13.559 likely to be above eighteen million, with some seven hundred and seventy five million 399 00:33:13.680 --> 00:33:20.440 confirm cases globally. Scientists have successfully cloned a healthy reesius monkey, which has 400 00:33:20.440 --> 00:33:24.400 now survived more than two years. While cloning has become more and more common 401 00:33:24.440 --> 00:33:30.279 with plants and lower level animals, Cloning primates has been especially difficult. Now. 402 00:33:30.319 --> 00:33:36.200 A report in the journal Nature Communications claims the key to success with primates 403 00:33:36.359 --> 00:33:42.279 involves providing a cloned embryo with a healthy placenta. The authors analyze the differences 404 00:33:42.359 --> 00:33:47.359 between two early stage embryo is made from two reproductive technologies, those using in 405 00:33:47.480 --> 00:33:53.720 vitro fertilization and those cloned using a process called somatic cell nuclear transfer. They 406 00:33:53.799 --> 00:33:59.680 found abnormalities in the way genetic information can be assessed and read by the developing 407 00:33:59.720 --> 00:34:04.359 clone embryo, and in the size and shape that placenter's enclosed monkeys developing in 408 00:34:04.400 --> 00:34:08.039 surrogate mothers. To address these issues, researchers have now developed a method to 409 00:34:08.039 --> 00:34:14.599 provide the developing cloned embryo with a healthy placenta, in the process successfully developing 410 00:34:14.639 --> 00:34:20.880 a healthy clone monkey. A new study suggests that narcissists are far more likely 411 00:34:20.920 --> 00:34:24.480 to believe in conspiracy theories than the rest of the population. The findings are 412 00:34:24.519 --> 00:34:30.920 based on your research looking at the different characteristics and personality traits associated with belief 413 00:34:30.960 --> 00:34:37.599 in conspiracy theories. Scientists found a consistent link between conspiracy beliefs and narcissism, 414 00:34:37.840 --> 00:34:43.800 especially conspiracy theories supporting a person's belief system and worldview. Timendum from a Strands 415 00:34:43.800 --> 00:34:49.159 Skeptics says, buying into conspiracies make some people feel like they have special knowledge, 416 00:34:49.239 --> 00:34:52.159 which when you think about it, is incredibly alluring to any narcissist. 417 00:34:52.440 --> 00:34:58.800 This research by a PSCs at University in Queensland was trying to see the motivations 418 00:34:58.800 --> 00:35:01.280 for people to believe in conspiracy theory why they picked up on this one, 419 00:35:01.320 --> 00:35:05.400 not that one, et cetera and whatever, and they were suggesting that one 420 00:35:05.519 --> 00:35:10.079 characteristic of some conspiracy theory believers is narcissism, their own belief in themselves and 421 00:35:10.079 --> 00:35:15.199 the wonderfulness that they are. He was suggesting this this research is that following 422 00:35:15.239 --> 00:35:17.800 a conspiracy theory makes you feel special, right, that I've got this knowledge 423 00:35:17.840 --> 00:35:22.199 that others don't have. Therefore I'm pretty cool, and that you don't have 424 00:35:22.239 --> 00:35:25.400 a your student un bright and therefore I will believe a conspiracy theory because I 425 00:35:25.440 --> 00:35:29.840 believe in how important I am and my judgment is now. One thing the 426 00:35:29.960 --> 00:35:35.440 researcher doesn't say that you could add is also that definitely narcissistic that a conspiracy 427 00:35:35.480 --> 00:35:38.000 theory is there after me because I'm important, I have this special knowledge, 428 00:35:38.039 --> 00:35:42.920 et cetera. So that's very narcissistic because it ends up being paranois. Just 429 00:35:43.000 --> 00:35:47.840 describe my friend George, and I describe people I know who say, yeah, 430 00:35:47.840 --> 00:35:51.280 there after me, they will try and kill me. And I once 431 00:35:51.280 --> 00:35:53.320 said, You're not that important that people would want to kill you, that 432 00:35:53.440 --> 00:35:59.559 argument with George, and because it's narcissistic. But what this researcher was saying 433 00:35:59.639 --> 00:36:02.360 is that people who have a high opinion of themselves, where's the Dunning Kruger 434 00:36:02.400 --> 00:36:06.920 high opinion themselves? They're really not worthy of it for high opinion themselves, 435 00:36:06.960 --> 00:36:09.440 and that therefore they can see things that others can't and wipe up they see 436 00:36:09.480 --> 00:36:13.519 it. It's so obvious to me because I'm super bright and so observant, 437 00:36:13.599 --> 00:36:16.039 and at the same time, oh, I'm so important. I can see 438 00:36:16.039 --> 00:36:19.559 this stuff, and that they will come and kill me because they have this 439 00:36:19.679 --> 00:36:23.320 secret knowledge and because I'm important, and therefore the narcissism works into paranoia and 440 00:36:23.360 --> 00:36:27.480 all sorts of things. So it's definitely about the belief that they have special 441 00:36:27.559 --> 00:36:30.840 skills. At other sides, Now, not every believe in a conspiracy theory 442 00:36:30.880 --> 00:36:32.639 is going to be a narcissist, but not every narcissist is going to believe 443 00:36:32.679 --> 00:36:37.000 every conspiracy theory. But it makes for an interesting concept because you can't tell 444 00:36:37.159 --> 00:36:40.519 narcissistic people that that's what they are, and they have a firm commitment to 445 00:36:40.559 --> 00:36:44.920 the conspiracy theory that they follow, so you can't sun necessarily weed them off. 446 00:36:45.079 --> 00:36:49.039 But that's true of anybody, whether they're narcissistic or not. Narcissists will 447 00:36:49.079 --> 00:36:52.960 take a correction as the personal attack. Yeah, when my friend George raises 448 00:36:52.000 --> 00:36:55.320 this issue and I challenge him on it, that's why are you're going after 449 00:36:55.400 --> 00:36:59.719 me. I'm brighter than you. Therefore I have special knowledge and you don't. 450 00:37:00.000 --> 00:37:20.800 That's timendum from Australian skeptics, And that's the show for now. 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