Hello and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I'm your host, Corey Evans.
Thanks for listening to this week's show. The topic is sophomore bust or
trust. It's a simple idea, five softmores. Can we trust them in
fantasy or will they be busts like they were as rookies or potentially fading into
their second season in the NFL. A quick shout out to Ben, Paul,
Cyril, Luise, Tony and Chris for joining Patreon this past week.
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last week. It was my Patreon member Dynasty startup League. I got an
overwhelming amount of responses already in submissions for to league, so I will continue
to allow entries through the rest of June, and then I will reveal the
eleven other players that will be in the league. It's going to be very
difficult to choose because a lot of people are your stood over on Patreon,
a ton more than I was expecting. So thank you all so much for
the interest and passion for joining my new league. Remember, you have to
be a Patreon member to be eligible, so I'm going to allow the entire
month of June to play out, so don't be afraid to continue submitting your
case or reasoning to become a member. And I'm going to choose early July
who I think is a best fit based on who appears most devoted dedicated to
being an active member high engagement level. I don't want this leading consists of
members that could potentially have turnover year every year, so there's going to be
a lot of people excluded that I would love to include in the league.
Yet there's only eleven spots, which actually leads me to believe that this could
become an annual thing where I create a brand new startup league each and every
offseason, exclusively on Patreon. All right, let's get to the content,
though, sophomore bust or trust up. First, I have Sky Moore,
who I think is a trust twenty three in September, second rounder fifty four
overall. Last year out of Western Michigan, he only had a twenty two
for two to fifty log eleven point four yards protetch with thirty three targets in
sixteen games played last season, three carries twenty four yards, fourteen returns for
eighty six yards, and three kickoff returns for fifty yards. However, Andy
Reid decided to bench or remove Skymore from heart return status later on the season
due to a few fumbles and mental mistakes. Hopefully that could mean more of
an offensive path to value in touches in twenty twenty three. Moore's ADP and
rookie drafts last year was on the late first, early second round borderline depending
on your league size, and if it was super flex or one quarterback after
disappointing first season, Sky shouldn't cost you much more than a midsecond right now,
and I'd be knocking on every owner's door in any league to see who
you can acquire him at that price point. Even with huge Smith Schuster out
Kansas City, the Chiefs sport a crowded receiver room with Darius Tony mvs.
Skuy Moore himself, Justin Watson, Justin Ross. It's also not out of
the question at the Times recording that Deandrew Hopkins ends up joining forces with Patrick
Mahomes as a free agent, edition not necessarily seeming that way, with either
Buffalo Tennessee their jets of perhaps New England seeming like more popular suitors for Hopkins
services. That's up in the air. I'll talk about it once it's finalized.
As a prospect. Sky Moore was a replacement level player in school from
twenty nineteen twenty twenty before emerging in twenty twenty one with a twelve ninety two
ten receiving effort for thirteen point six yards pertectch. That level of production coupled
with Skies I've let a profile four point four one forty yard dash, thirty
four and a half ks vertical ten foot five in broad jump made him exciting
rookie wide receiver to target, particularly because he's linked to Mahomes in Dynasty.
A consistent year one role did not come to fruition for sky More. He
didn ounce pass five receptions or sixty three yards receiving in one contest. The
most targets he saw in a game stood at six long story short sky was
not a focal point for the Chiefs, despite second round draft capital to his
name. I trust investing him more at costs now, since he offers the
Chiefs versatility to stretched the field or become a possession wide out, ala jus
much use to sell. In twenty twenty two, Skymore five ten about ninety
five for a body frame. Sure, there's bus potential, but Moore's high
ceiling still exists, it remains, and it's possibly you can acquire him for
cheaper than new rookie wide out Rashid Rice, who faces the same perhaps rokey
wall that's Sky ran into last season, But in twenty twenty three, it's
becoming more and more evident that it takes times outside of a few outliers at
any position quarterback, running back, while receiver, or tight end for year
one prospects to make that immediate impact when in actuality, it takes an off
season or two to grasp a playbook or that transition from college to the pros.
Up next is Jalen Tilbert. While he was a bust twenty four years
old third round pick eighty eight overall last season out of South Alabama to the
Dallas Cowboys, registered two catches for twelve yards on three targets in eight games
played. Talk about a lacklus third rookie campaign Ceedee Lamb to the top the
Dallas Wobcier depth chart, followed by Brandon Cooks, Michael Gallup. There's been
buzz circulating about Tolbert from OTAs. I don't question his talent or athletic ability
six one five, four point four nine wheels. It's more of a blocked
path to volume that brings up the bust label for him in my mind.
As a sophomore, it's somewhat concerning that Tilbert was not able to use surf
wide receivers like Noah Brown or even Michael Gallup, who was recovering from a
twenty cel twenty two after being a third round draft pick. There was speculation
this time last year that Tilbert could assert himself as wide receiver two for the
Cowboys before long opposite Ceedee Lamb. After all, Jalen's twenty twenty one college
resume stood out in eighty fourteen seventy four eight receiving log averaging eighteen yars pertect
in the process eighteen yards pertect shows big playability left and right. It did
not transition year one in the pros level competition was a slight cause for hesitation
or pause from South Alabama, but on tape, Jalen Tilbert looked apart at
this stage. I'd say Tilbert's worth a flyer for a third, whether it
be twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four also faces though target competition from Tony
Pollard let alone, the Cowboys trio of tight ends and Jake Ferguson, Luke
Schoolmaker or Peyton Hendershots. Therefore, I see more bust than trust and Tilbert's
immediate outlook as a sophomore. He doesn't currently have a path to playing time
outside of a duck truck promotion or injury ahead of him among Dallas's wide receiver
group. Sure, he's a nice end of bench dash who could become an
effetual the darter based on his pedigree and what he accomplished at the college level,
But in terms of expecting a year or two role to be impact from
a fantasy lens, I don't see it right now for Jalen Tilbert. Up
next is Desmond Ritter, who I see as a trust twenty four in August
third rounder, seventy four overall, vast two juts Cincinnati. He was a
career sixty two point one percent passer in school. In the actual NFL last
season, he had seven hundred and eight yards passing, two touchdowns, no
interceptions, completed, sixty three and a half percent of his passes, six
point two yards per attempt, sixteen rushes to sixty four yards. I was
all in four games, played small sample size. His weekly yards passing were
ninety seven to eighteen sixty nine to twenty four. Solid but surely and improved
and increased week over week. Played it simple. I think we should trust
Ritter, or at least give him benefit of doubt chance to prove himself his
worth because the Falcons are doing so in real life with much more at stake
than us As a real franchise. Atlanta had all offseason long to sign impact
free agent at quarterback or address the position during the draft itself, but neither
occurred unless you want to count bringing in Taylor Heineki, which I think he's
more of a high end backup or journeyman than a set of forget it ascid
in fantasy, let alone quality starting quarterback in the NFL. During Ridders four
game sample size in twenty twenty two, we never saw Atlanta let him unleash
or air the ball outdown field. It was more of a dink and dunk
game manager experiment, a Ben don't break strategy, if you will. If
that continues into twenty twenty three, Ben Desmond could end up being a bust
with a top tier talent supporting staff around him. Running back be John Robinson,
wide receiver Drake London, Titan Kyle Pitts. Ridder has a foundation to
succeed in place as a passer. What we can't forget is the Russian ability
at six three two o seven with four point five two speed who recorded annual
yard rushing totals in school of five seventy two, six fifty five, ninety
two, three fifty five with twenty eight career rushing touchdowns. It wasn't one
outlier season at the Tinnati for Ridder on the ground. It was three four
seasons of him proving his dual threat skill set year in year out. If
Ridder is given more command of the Falcons offense there's upcoming season underhead coach Arthur
Smith, or if it's a coordinator Dave Ragone, then we could see more
of that versatility on full display and he'd become a streaming quarterback too, if
not quarterback one candidate, but we have to see it from both a passer
and a rusher those standpoints, because I don't think there's enough volume to go
around for him to rely solely. I'm throwing the football back end quarterback two
for me, tuper flex with upside and a quarterback three and one quarterback leagues.
In summary, I do trust Ridder based on what the Falcons have done.
Actions speak louder than words, and the Falcons actions this offseason were that
the coaching staff and front office desity makers trust Ridder for at least twenty twenty
three and if he proved himself then they could have found a long term solution
at the position. Time for a quick break and then two more sophomore bust
or trust candidates to discuss. How about ty Chandler as a bust twenty five
years old, fifth round pick one sixty nine overall that season on North Carolina,
he only had six rushes with twenty yards three point three yards per carry
in three games play. Chandler is gaining some buzz or value steam as of
late. After Minnesota decided to move on from Dalvin Cook, the Vikings now
have on their depth chart at running back Alexander Madison, Tyk Chandler himself,
Canadian Wonggwu Towea McBride as replacement options to shoulder the load left behind by Cook.
The general consensus is now vaulting up Madison in RB two territory and assuming
that Tyke Chandler will become what Madison was to Dalvin moving forward. While that
may be true, Madison, as we remember, was more of a handcuff
than ever standalone value asset when Cook was healthy. Based on earlier reports out
of camp, it does sound like Minnesota as headed for a true RBBC that
would be understandably led by Madison, who has been waiting in the wings behind
Alvin for oh so many years. Chandler was a late bloomer in collegeist Bite,
spending four years of Tennessee. He then transferred to UNC for twenty twenty
one, where he then finally caught the attention of scouts. One eighty two
thirteen rushing effort for six yards per clip. That's outstanding. That proceeded to
have a strong pre draft process and flash at the Senior Bowl, along with
the combine with four point three eight wheels that cut my most during the summer
months last year. Anytime our running back has that sort of straight line speed,
it should warrant us to monitor if they're used or if there's a chance
for an increased role at any point of time. Now, I do expect
Ty to carve out a roll or decent amount of volume for the Vikings.
A a lemma is whether it'll be fantasy viable or not in terms of actual
per touch rush receiver volume. I'm categorizing Chandler's a bust for the sake of
this episode because the writing is already on the wall of him rising in price
for twenty twenty three, perhaps becoming overvalued. Let's assume, for the sake
of pure rookie draft capital, that he creeps into the second round conversation for
twenty twenty three rookie drafts that value range. I'd much rather keep a twenty
three second than gamble on a soon to be twenty six year old running back
twenty five years old the sophomore, because longevity or shelf life alone indicates that
you're better off of the twenty one twenty two year old prospect than a short
term window of Ty Chandler, who was going to be in Sillery behind Alexander
Madison. On the flip side of that conversation, if you can acquire Chandler
for a third, a fourth, a fifth, if people aren't as savvy
in your respective leagues, or even if tax Chandlers a free agent, scoop
him up, because that's a completely different story where you already have room for
profit. I'm speaking in the terms of acquiring him now, where everyone realizes
Cook is no longer Minnesota and Madison doesn't necessarily have the track are going to
be proven as an RB one at the NFL level at Boise state he was
terrific, but that was a long time Agoga Pardu his utilization as a pro
as more of a backup than ever true starter. And then last but not
least, Londale Robinson had another bust candidate twenty two years old and tech around
selection forty three. Over twenty twenty two out of Kentucky, he had twenty
three grabs for two twenty seven and one touchdown nine point nine as pertech thirty
one targets in six games played towards acl Meek eleven, just when he started
to emerge a bit disappointing the Giants. Why was your depth chart is the
main reason behind the bust label. It's packed. You have Wondale Robinson himself,
Darius Layton, Isaiah Hodgins, Paris Campbell getting buzz every single day.
It appears Stan Shepherd, rookie Jalen Hi who I like a lot, James.
And it's a quantity, not quality, level of talent regardless. At
the end of the day, it's a ton of miles to feed on an
offense that already has other weapons utilize at different positions. Ivy Robinson as a
bust because of the situation, not ability it's difficult to imagine him being back
in time or even at full strength four week one posts acl tear, which
puts him on the outside looking in for a full time roll upon a victual.
Wordsern doesn't help matters either, and usually situation doesn't factor into my assessment
for a player, But this could be an exception to the rule where I
just don't see a volume driven path for Robinson to overcome all of the competition
alongside a mettwide receiver in New York, not to mention expecting Darren Waller to
function as perhaps the top receiver for the Giants, even though it's a tight
end and we can't forget about, say, Quon Barkley his dual threadability assuming
he reaches a new deal and doesn't hold out for all of twenty twenty three,
That and of itself limits the ceiling for all Giants pass catchers and what
was a short or intermediate passing attack led by Daniel Jones in twenty twenty two
with his six point eight press attempt. Londale is not a vertical field structure.
He's your short area possession underneath comeback route type of weapon who does a
lot of damage after the catch, and he showed glimpses of exciting players rookie
last year with similar open field traits too. I think Kadarius Tony in terms
of that shortier quickness, agility, and duke ability. A few Robinson's best
games were three thirty seven, one touchdown vers Baltimore, six for fifty yards
at Jacksonville, and then nine for a hundred yards versus Detroit. Size was
and still is to make concern for Wandale five eight one eighty five since the
college usage was volume driven. In twenty twenty one, it was a one
oh four thirteen thirty four seven law for twelve point eight yards per catch.
That sort of usage is not going to translate to the Giants infrastructure because the
volume's not going to be there. And I don't think that sort of ceiling
exists for many NFL players in general, let alone one like the Giants with
such a jam packed depth chart at wide receiver. I'm willing to take a
gamble or risk on Robinson for a late second, early third, even a
future third and fourth something along those lines. But spending more seems to be
buying at his ceiling, which is never advisable in dynasty for any player,
let alone someone coming off of a torny acl who does not have a locked
in roll come week one for next season, that will do it. Hope
you'll enjoy my sophomore bust or Trust episode a quick recap. I have Skymore
as a trust feeling. Tilbert as a bust, doesn't Ritter as a trust
tie Chandler bust and talked about him most recently Wanda Robinson as a bust for
context. I don't think the busts are bad players. It's all about assessing
trademarket and startup value when it comes to ADP or rankings and at all their
current price points or valuations. That's how I view them at this point in
time, So you can view that as buy, sell, trust bust.
It's a matter of where they are for you in your rankings or perceived value,
and then a would you start them or be would they be depth?
If their depth pieces, then there's more wiggle room for failure or success.
But if you're depending on any of the five players that I discussed as starters,
you have to be fairly confident that they're going to become regular contributors for
their teams as sophomores. Thank you all for listening. A few cook reminders.
If you want access to one bonus show per week and unlimited direct message
ability, join Patreon five dollars per month minimum link in the show notes or
just head that their mobile app or website, and it's the only way of
a chance to get into my Patreon only Dancy startup League. As I mentioned,
a ton of inquiries submissions already. It's overwhelming, so it's gonna take
me time to dissect. But I still encourage you if you're on the platform
to put an extry in if interested, and then the chosen participants will be
announced in July. Don't forget either. If you want that thirty minute or
one hour Google meets to break down and assess your team in great detail pre
draft, post draft for a startup Orgie draft, then hit me up get
that locked in. As a summer months grow on here, the schedule will
get increasingly busier, so don't hesitate to book a call next again until next
time. This is the honest checking out. Talk to you all next week.
See ya. M h m h, m hm m h