Change of the world, and he's continuing to change all of us with wonderful
vehicles. He has brought to us a space launch system which his efficient as
nothing before. New people on the on the space from yours ground after the
Space Shuttle, and I could go on far for an hour, but I
don't do that. Welcome, big hands, you know a musk My good
hetch how how are you? Ah? Good? Fantastic? We have we
have we have two days of AI and SHANII and whatsever But you look real.
My head is very big in the screen and in reality too. We
haven't had so much talk about AI in these two days, so we need
your opinion. What do you think about the next five to ten years on
AI? Please give us a view Official Insemination Division Intelligence. What do you
think about that? But try try, audience, and I'll say so yes.
Artificial intelligence is is certainly going to profoundly change the world. One of
the most significant ways is self driving. So we've been putting a lot of
effort into self driving technology for cars. You don't see it quite as much
in Europe because we first have to make it work in the US before we
increase the complexity of trying to make it elsewhere in the world. But I
think we're quite close to having the car be fully autonomous. So for example,
like right now, I could I'm in Austin and if I want to
try, say to the airport, the car could take me to the airport
with no interventions, using or it's using our digital neural nets, in other
words, artificial intelligence and cameras, so there's no light, our radar,
nothing. And in fact, if you think about how humans strive cars,
humans are biological neural nets, and we use eyes, so it's the eyes
and but biological neural nets. The analog is digital. The analog for digital
is cameras and digital neural nets. This is working remarkably well that it has
been quite difficult to do this because TNS out that in order to use that.
In order for this to work, the car has to really be quite
fully intelligently as a subset, for example, has to learn how to read
everything and and and how to assess intention among drivers and pedestrians. So it's
it's it's you're not creating sort of a baby artificial general into legence to solve
this. But this will obviously be extremely profound, and I'm talking about what
a motive here. I'll get into the broader question in a minute, but
the average use of a passenger vehicle is only about ten hours per week out
of one hundred and sixty eight hours. At the point at which it is
autonomous, that I think you would see probably a third of the hours being
used because it would be like a taxi. So maybe my guess is like
fifty to sixty hours, which means that the utility of a passenger vehicle would
increase by a factor of five. And this is gigantic, but we'll see.
So that that's the automotive. Then there's what people think. I have
certainly experienced online where you can ask it a question and ask for an essay
or a picture, or to understand a picture, and that is progressing rapidly.
But what I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is I've never seen any
technology advance faster than this. The the artificial intelligence compute coming online appears to
be increasing by a factor of ten every six months like now. Obviously that
cannot continue at such a high rate for forever or will exceed the mast of
the universe. But I've never seen anything like it. And this is why
you see in videos market cap being so gigantic because they currently have the best
neural net chips. I mean, I think the in videos market cap exceed
the GDP of Canada or something. Increasingly, Awa is quite high. So
yeah, you know, and it may go higher. Who knows. The
chip rush is bigger than any gold rush that has ever existed. So and
then there will also be robots, like human humanoid robots, not not just
industrial industrial industrial robots we are core familiar with. You use industrial robots,
We use industrial robots. Everyone does, but they're very programmed explicitly and they
don't walk around. But Tesla with for example, the Optimist program is making
a humanoid robot that is capable of doing almost anything a human can do.
I mean, I hope, I just hope the robots are nice to us.
You know, we hope. So do you know that the robots will
be nice to us? And maybe, let's say, in this regard,
because you are working on optimals, what can we expect in terms of let's
say, support, which is going to come Maybe also a little bit with
regard to production, because in the past Connected World we were also discussing application
of ai jen ai into production in order to boost productivity. Maybe a couple
of thoughts on this one too. Well. The plus side of air is
that I think productivity will increase dramatically so across every field, whether it be
manual labor to supply chain logistics. There's already a lot of movement to use
chat bots, like sophisticated chat bots for customer service, for example, where
they can answer quite quite complex questions already. But I mean, I think
we really are on the edge of one of the biggest technology revel that has
ever existed. You know, there's supposedly a sort of a Chinese curse,
may you live in interesting times? Well, we live in the most interesting
of times, the most interesting And for a while there I was a little
bit it's making me a bit a bit depressed, frankly, because I was
like, well, will we be will they take over? Will we be
useless? But then the way that I reconciled myself to this question was would
I rather be alive to see AI apocalypse or not? I'm like, I
guess I'd like to see it. You know, that's a good thought.
To be more, that's a good thought because you mentioned it tenfold every six
months that's an exponential curve, right, Exponential curves are beautiful, but there's
kind of a question where does it ever end, right, do you see
any and yet? Or would it go on for three four five years like
this, because then we talk hundred folds right, thousand folds off time?
Yeah, that's why obviously, Yeah, I mean you can't. You can't
grow at that rate without quickly exceeding the mass of the universe. So clearly
it's going to hit some constraints. The constraints that AI compute and very predictable.
I've actually predicted this over a year ago. So over here a go
the shortage was chips, neural net chips. Then it was very easy predict
that the next shortage will be voltage step down transformers, So because you've got
to feed the power to these things. So if you've got one hundred to
three hundred killer bolts coming out of your utility and it's got to step all
the way down to you know, point six bolts, there's a lot of
stepping down. So now we're in step down. And this is my not
that funny joke, which is that they need transformers to run transformers because you
know, the AI is like, there's this thing called transformer in AI.
It's neural I don't know, it's a combination of sort of neural nets,
and they're running out of transformers. Run transformers. Then the next shortage will
be electricity. So I think next year you'll see the electricity that they just
can't find and electricity run all the chips. I mean, during the chip
crisis, we certainly all did have many contacts. Fortunately we were able to
master it together. Of course, we all would like to avoid a second
chip crisis. But with regard to your to your comment on power demand,
we all know today vehicles have three to four kilowatt power demand for the peripherals.
But this is continuously going up, and Teslam has recently launched the cyber
truck, which I believe is mostly coming with forty eight volt. Do you
see this as a let's say, further disruption of automotive industry, another technology
change with an automotive, Yeah, I think you know the one motive industry
has been living with twelve volts for a very long time, a century roughly.
I think it started off as six volts, and then they needed a
more powerful starter voter, and then they doubled it to twelve volts, although
it's actually more like thirteen point seven volts. You're right, absolutely, yeah,
and the bus voltage actually varies a lot for those since there's probably some
electrical engineers in that audience. It's like twelve volts is a very rough approximation,
but it's really it's really kind of an arbitrary low voltage. And if
you look at say power Ethernet, it's running at fifty volts or roughly forty
eight volts, and we setted forty forty eight bolts because anything really above that
you start to running too regulatory concerns, and power Ethernet is, like you
said, roughly at that level. But the advantage of obviously quadrupling the voltage
is that you can substantially reduce how much copper or conductor is used in the
car, so you can use very small copper wires for you know, it's
roughly roughly a quarter, not exactly a quarter, but roughly a quarter as
much as much copper is needed for forty eight volts as for twelve. So
I think it's it's a logical move. That's that's that's really the next step
for the low voltage architecture for the car. I think ultimately long term WOR
class will be forty eight volts. It's it's interesting that many people love electric
vehicles and want to have them, but some are harmed by a missing infrastructure.
That would be the same actually as the II thing. We will have
lots of chips ready, but we will have fed the power to operate them.
There's a race between infrastructure and technology right now. And you're also certain
technology may win, which is a problem because actually infrastructures would win. We
should have all the infrastructure we need. Is that correct? Yeah, are
you talking about like sort of charging infrastructural cars and that kind of thing.
Well, the reason tesn't developed the sort of global supercharger network was specifically to
address that point and the point you're making, which is people need to be
comfortable that they can travel long distances and charge their car wherever they go.
Unfortunately, electricity is almost everywhere, and so it's you know, it's not
all not all that rare unless you're really far out in the countryside or something.
So yeah, you need the super you need the charging infrastructure and like
the electricity to charge electric cars. In fact, the simultaneous growth of electric
cars and AI, both of which need electricity, both of which need voltage
transformers. Actually, I think is creating a tremendous demand for electrical equipment and
for electrical power generation. Maybe one more question elon with regard to new vehicle
designs coming to the market. Of course you cannot share with us confidential secrets,
but anyways, what are the things you believe, let's say we will
see over the next years in the market. And maybe just a small comment.
In Europe, we see a shortage of affordable battery electric vehicles in the
offerings because many people in Europe are only able to spend like twenty five thousand
euros for their vehicles. So what are the new vehicle types vehicle designs you
are thinking about at Tesla, Well, our next generation vehicle will be a
low, a lower cost vehicle, but one also that is very focused on
autonomy. Like I said, the we really are getting to the point where
the car can drive itself. Well, when you're in the in the US,
I would recommend perhaps giving you know, trying out our car and see,
I seeing how it works. It's remarkable, you know. As the
AI gets better and better, it actually feels quite human like in the way
that it drives. It does things that you wouldn't expect a computer to do.
It's it's not like a robot dancing, you know, it's like it
feels smooth and intuitive. So our next generation vehicle, which were quite far
along on, is very much anticipating and autonomy. And then of course we've
got some fun things as well, like on our the new Tesla Roadster,
which will be able to do zero two hundred kilometers in under one second.
Great, thank you very much. You know that's normally need. That's good.
Yeah, that's good. Some fun stuff too, you know, that's
the that's the dessert, that's the cherry on the cake. But it's fun.
You've got to have the fun stuff too. Yeah, right, No,
that's very good news because in the end, there's a lot of people
here in the room that's still on their list to buy an electric vehicle,
and you just announced something which they probably want to buy. So thank you
very much, Thank you very much, and thank you extremely for fifteen years
of partnership and work together. We're inspired always by your speed attitude of graphics
and things come out. Thank you very much too. Musk all right,
and thank you for your support, very very much appreciate it.