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Yeah, I guess see. The
only thing is if the fit you know

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waives a magic club like Paul Volker
did in the early eighties, that that

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eventually brought it to a screeching halt. But I agree that that you know,

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FED policy isn't going to do a
whole lot and in that same vein

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as what I was just talking about
with the first phases of dollar index versus

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goal dollar versus other currencies. You're
listening to Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival Network

7
00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:37,200
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8
00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:42,960
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9
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:49,399
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10
00:00:49,439 --> 00:00:59,039
Network now more than ever. And
welcome you are listening to the Financial Survival

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00:00:59,079 --> 00:01:02,840
Network. I'm your host, Carrie
Lutz. Well, twenty twenty three was

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quite a year. Here we are
in twenty twenty four. Wanted to get

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Eric Haddock back and get your views
Eric on where we're heading for twenty twenty

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four. Hey, you find Eric
over at inside track Trading. That's I

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00:01:21,719 --> 00:01:27,200
nside Tracktrading dot com. Got a
question for Eric or myself. Shoot me

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00:01:27,239 --> 00:01:33,920
an email Klatcarrie Lutz dot com.
Eric, Hey, it's January ninth.

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I'm glad we're getting you on here
early in the year. So I remember

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you mentioning that the strong dollar made
you realize that, among other things,

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that we were going to get a
Democrat in the White House. Now we've

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had a weaker dollar, although it's
not as weak as where we started out

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once upon a time. Any prognostications
about the election, well, what I

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discussed with that too is more of
a not where we are now, but

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where it moves during the administration.
So you need a little crystal ball where

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that's concerned. But the discussion we
had even I think I even had it

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with you back in in twenty sixteen
when it was showing to me a Republican

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even before they knew who the candidate
was. And the pattern has been over

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the last forty to fifty years that
during Republican administrations the dollar tends to trade

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lower, and during democratic administrations it
trends higher. And that's obviously that's kind

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of from start to finish that within
there you're going to have your swings.

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So any particular six month or even
one year. Part of that might not

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or might contradict the overall trend,
But I would say that from a dollar

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perspective, I have been saying all
along that I thought the dollar would head

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lower from the beginning of twenty twenty
three into about the end of twenty twenty

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five, maybe even carrying over into
twenty twenty six. So from just a

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purely dollar outlook, that's what I've
been looking for, and I think we

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kind of have the first big leg
of that down and we're probably in for

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some consolidation in the dollar. But
as far as administrations and whatnot, a

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lot of that would also hinge on
how much of that move comes between now

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and the end of twenty twenty four. It may just you may get most

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of the down and move then and
then it stabilizes. So long answer to

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a short question as far as is
political prognostication, No, that's not really

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giving me anything convincing to hang my
hat on. But I do think the

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dollar is going to be a big
factor in a lot of economic issues,

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in potentially another future batt of inflation, and in a lot of other factors

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within our economy. Because I think
it has completed a fourteen year bull market

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from two thousand and eight into late
twenty twenty two, and that's based on

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the Dollar Index, and I think
that that Dollar index is going to work

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its way back at top dout around
one thirteen. I think by the time

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we're over, it's going to be
back down to between eighty eight and ninety

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so. And I think that some
of that has to do with geopolitical monitor

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competition, everything from from China to
the Bricks Nations, and the ongoing battle

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against the global hegemony of the dollar
and looking for alternatives to it. And

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I think we're entering that time frame
where many of the efforts that have been

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put forth the last ten to fifteen
years are going to start to reach fruition.

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And you know, that doesn't mean
a collapse in the dollar or anything

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like that, but you take ten
percent of its reserve authority away from it,

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and that has big ramifications for the
US and US debt and who's interested

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in buying it and who's not,
and a lot of other factors that stem

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from that. Yeah. Well,
the one thing I've felt like the dollar

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was on its way out men many
times in the past, and somehow it's

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stuck. It out. And you
know, it's been over one hundred years

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now since the advent of the Federal
Reserve, and here we are. It's

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it's still sticking it out. But
I guess in the long run, all

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fiat currencies returned to their intrinsic value, right well, And that's part of

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it too, And that's why I
even specified dollar index when I was talking

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about fourteen year bull market, because
back in twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen,

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twenty fifteen, I was doing a
series of articles on this forty year cycle

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that I've documented going back hundreds of
years, even predating the US in Europe.

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But it times these battles between heart
currency and other forms. Often it's

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a paper fiat current. See.
You know, you even go back to

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what is it the I think it
was the sixteen nineties, fifty sixteen nineties

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in the Plymouth Bay Colony and their
experiment and then you had experiment with the

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continentals right after the declaration of independence. And in this forty year cycle had

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timed these these battles between fiat currency
hard currency, and it was showing me

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that twenty sixteen would start it actually
culminate one forty year cycle from twenty sixteen

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to twenty twenty one, and then
a new forty year cycle would begin twenty

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twenty one. And both of those
the end of the one cycle in the

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beginning of the next were both telling
me to look for dollar weakness against things

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like gold. Well, when I
just mentioned the dollar index that rallied from

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two thousand and eight and didn't hit
its peak until twenty twenty two. But

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if you look at the dollar versus
gold, the dollar topped out in the

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end of twenty fifteen versus gold,
and it has not even come back close

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to those levels that goal gained from
early twenty sixteen all the wayend of late

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twenty twenty. Now it's had several
retests of its highs, and it's getting

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more and more prone to a future
breakout to the upside in gold, and

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that to me is also part of
what you will see. The dollar index

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itself now starts to take a first
dive, and that's kind of the diversions

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you see in a lot of markets
that the dollar to most observers looked like

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it was still holding up from twenty
sixteen to the present or to the end

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of twenty twenty two, But in
reality, when you look at it on

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other basis and versus other currency,
it was weakening, weakening, and that's

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kind of the first stage of a
transition. And then when it becomes clear

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to the masses is when you have
much bigger moves, when panic buying or

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selling enters in and you start to
get accelerated moves. And I think that's

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what we could be in for in
the coming years. Well, in fairness

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to the dollar, basically every currency
became weaker versus gold over the past decade,

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right, Well, yeah, and
that's that's what even the dollar index

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strength kind of tells you, is
the Dollar index was gaining in the last

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half of the last decade twenty sixteen
to twenty twenty one. On balance,

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it was gaining. It actually had
some pretty significant moves in both directions,

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but on the whole it gained even
as gold gained too. Which, yes,

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that tells you that the dollar index
was the helpiest course in the glue

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factory, so to speak. But
yes, it doesn't mean it's strong other

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than when you're comparing it for other
kiak currency. Yeah. We we always

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say it's the best looking house in
Baltimore. Okay, I'm not familiar enough

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with Baltimore in real estate. I
know they had a real resurrection around the

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waterfront and what not alas decade or
so, but I don't so much about

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it. So hasn't gone too good
since then. But but you know what

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I'm saying, it's it's basically here. Yeah. Yeah, So let's talk

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about individual markets first. Like you
made reference to inflation, and of course

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inflation run in Inflation runs in cycles
as well. You and I lived through

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the list inflationary cycle sixties, seventies
and eighties. It's not like the FED

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weighs a magic wand and it goes
away. So what about the inflationary cycle

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that we're in now? What can
we look forward to there? Yeah,

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I guess see. The only thing
is if the FED, you know,

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waves a magic club like Paul Volker
did in the early eighties, that that

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eventually brought it to a screeching halt. But I agree that that, you

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know, FED policy isn't going to
do a whole lot. And in that

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same vein as what I was just
talking about with the first phases of dollar

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index versus goal dollar versus other currencies, I also think there's a factor there

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of inflation and dollar weakness, And
by that I mean that you had this

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first run up inflate of inflation from
you know, late twenty twenty to late

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twenty twenty two, although there's been
continual residual effects of it. I think

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they kind of identify many of the
inflation indexes as peaking out in third quarter

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of twenty twenty two. But I
think that you know, historically you've seen

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too that a week er dollar can
certainly prod inflation, you know, just

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by critical thinking there if everything you're
buying you're now buying with a weaker currency

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by comparison, just like we're talking
about the comparison of gold the dollar,

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well commodities, it's the dollar weekends. As I expect, anything you're purchasing

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with that dollar is going to be
more expensive relatively speaking, And so I

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think it's one of those things where
we probably will see another round of inflation

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down the road a bit. I
think we're into this reaction phase now.

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One of the things that I gauge
my perception of inflation because I'm more concerned

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with commodity inflation commodity prices, and
so I watch things like the Golden and

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SACS commodity index as a little bit
of a gauge, and that really peeked

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out in the early part of twenty
twenty two has been heading lower ever since.

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That is heavily weighted in oil and
energy, but even apart from that,

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commodities have been coming off. And
it's something where I'm from that index

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and from mid to longer term cycles. I'm looking at a bounce in it

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right now during the first quarter,
but I think it could see another drop

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into who I'm kind of looking around
the July August time frame, and that

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would be when I would expect it
to bottom out. So after that would

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be when I would expect the next
phase of inflation to start. And it

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doesn't mean that it comes roaring back
within a few months. You know,

145
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it's going to need to kind of
base out and start to slowly build momentum.

146
00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:26,480
So it's probably more looking out in
that twenty twenty five, maybe even

147
00:14:26,519 --> 00:14:33,879
twenty twenty six timeframe, when I
think we'd it would be more apparent that

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a second wave of inflation is well
entrenched. Uh huh, Okay, Well,

149
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that's interesting and the kind of goes
along with my thinking because these things

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go in waves as well, right, absolutely so, so you get a

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00:14:54,080 --> 00:15:00,600
really bad wave and then it eases
off, becuse whatever. But the only

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00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,600
way the FED could really stop it
is to just stop the economy, right,

153
00:15:05,759 --> 00:15:13,120
I mean to diminish the economy so
much that it can't function well enough

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00:15:13,159 --> 00:15:16,159
to produce inflation. Right. Yeah, And you know that's not going to

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00:15:16,159 --> 00:15:22,360
happen in the next In the current
year and an election year with either party,

156
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,919
you know that it doesn't want to
be viewed as being political, and

157
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,639
so they're going to be kind of
walking a tightrope and trying to be just

158
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:39,039
very balanced and as neutral as they
can while still trying to influence the markets

159
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:43,519
the way they're hoping, right right. Okay, so let's talk about markets.

160
00:15:43,559 --> 00:15:48,240
So you would think a loss of
purchasing power gold is going to do

161
00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,480
well in that environment. I think
that, yes, that gold has more

162
00:15:52,639 --> 00:16:00,120
upside down the road. Gold has
just very consistently been one of these markets

163
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:07,039
where it kind of whips sideways in
a trading range for months on end,

164
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:11,399
and then within a few weeks or
maybe two months, it makes an entire

165
00:16:11,519 --> 00:16:17,320
move and then it plateaus again and
trade sideways. So it's one of those

166
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:23,279
things where you want to certainly be
patient and saving your ammunition, but you

167
00:16:23,399 --> 00:16:30,200
also want to be ready to move
when it gives those first signals. A

168
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:34,840
couple of perfect examples were in twenty
twenty three, and this is where the

169
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cycles and charts were just so instrumental. I did several reports in late twenty

170
00:16:41,399 --> 00:16:45,960
twenty two saying where there was a
consistent seven year cycle that was bottoming,

171
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:52,080
and gold late twenty twenty two is
seven years from the late twenty fifteen low,

172
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,879
which was seven years from the late
two thousand and eight low, which

173
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was twenty seven years from the late
two thousand and one low, and for

174
00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:06,160
me, it looked like gold was
ready to enter a three to four year

175
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:11,680
bull market. But again it's that's
in the way I just described that you'll

176
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,960
get some initial advances and you'll get
a lot of sideways trading. And so

177
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I have a couple of indicators that
really helped me pinpoint when accelerated moves following

178
00:17:26,519 --> 00:17:33,119
turning points are most likely. And
so in early March gold signaled one of

179
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:40,160
those and generated a couple of bicygnals
in early March, and every publication I

180
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,039
put out for the next two months, I just kept saying everything shows gold

181
00:17:44,039 --> 00:17:48,480
should accelerate up into the first week
of May and then then top out until

182
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late twenty twenty three. Well,
gold serbs right up into May fourth,

183
00:17:52,759 --> 00:17:56,839
I think silver beat on May fourth
or fifth, and then they just sat

184
00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:04,640
for the next They declined on a
slower basis into early October, and as

185
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:11,240
we were coming into the latter part
of the year, this same combination of

186
00:18:11,279 --> 00:18:18,759
indicators was saying to look for a
search in November and probably peaking out in

187
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:25,480
the first week of December. And
I even had a very specific upside target

188
00:18:25,559 --> 00:18:29,440
in gold that was linked to that
at twenty one to fifty two, and

189
00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:33,119
sure enough, these indicators kind of
confirmed it. In mid November, gold

190
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:38,400
and silver accelerated to the upside.
Gold peaked on December fourth, I believe

191
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,640
it was at twenty one to fifty
two, and that just ushered in another

192
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:48,000
one of these trading ranges. So
it's again it's looking for those opportunities.

193
00:18:48,079 --> 00:18:52,599
I mean, if you're just buying
and holding, then fine that you also

194
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:57,079
want to kind of buy what it's
bolt back to give yourself the best potential

195
00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:03,240
for gains. But from a training
perspective, it's important to just kind of

196
00:19:03,279 --> 00:19:07,920
be patient with gold, wait for
those indicators to set up, and they

197
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:12,720
often do it once or twice a
year and then indicate when that one to

198
00:19:12,839 --> 00:19:19,519
two month surge is most likely.
And so that's what I'm looking at in

199
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:25,519
gold over the coming months and years. But I'm also along with that,

200
00:19:25,839 --> 00:19:33,279
looking at the ultimate breakout to the
upside. And I discussed this back earlier

201
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,400
this year of the whole pattern structure
that gold was setting up, and so

202
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:44,039
far it has continued to fill what
I described back then, but on a

203
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:52,160
continuous basis, continuous contract basis.
Gold peaked around twenty seventy back in late

204
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:57,559
twenty twenty and then around twenty seventy
back in early twenty twenty two and has

205
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just gone back up and for three
weeks in a row. The nearby contract

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closed right around twenty seventy before a
pullback. Hearing gold, it is getting

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closer and closer to an upside breakout. So I think that when you get

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the next signal from these indicators,
you're probably going to get an even bigger

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move because you'll get that momentum of
a breakout to the upside. So you

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think it's this year, I do
think it will be this year, and

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these indicators I'm watching are giving kind
of some subtle hints of when I think

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that could be, but they really
need to line up a bit more,

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get a bit more specific before I
start to put too much weight on that

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timing. Okay, so let's talk
about because when you talk about inflations,

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particularly in commodities, you got to
look at energy because it's so huge.

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It's so hugely important to every economy
in the world. So what is in

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store for energy prices. One of
the things that I discussed throughout twenty twenty

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three was a combination of monthly,
quarterly, and multi year cycles all that

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were telling me to look for a
peak in your crude. In products,

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natural gas is completely different, and
those cycles were telling me to look for

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a final peak in mid September of
twenty twenty three. That was a consistent

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even five year cycle in crude.
The previous peak like that was in a

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fourth quarter of twenty eighteen, and
monthly cycles were aligning with that, even

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a lot of multi week cycles.
So I thought, and still think that

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your September peak in the energy markets
is a very significant one that could hold

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for quite some time. And when
I mentioned that, I'm looking at the

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Golden SAX commodity index rallying right now, but then probably seeing another sell off

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into third quarter of this year.
Since that's so heavily weighted in energy,

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it wouldn't be surprising to see crude
and products have another sell off and set

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a more significant bottom at that time. Right now, I did have mid

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December as being what I thought would
be a multi month bottom. But unless

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crude can turn a monthly and a
weekly trend indicator that I use or kind

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of clarification of the trends and cycles, unless it turns that positive, I

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would expect it to go back down
to the December lows and probably below them

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leading into mid year. At that
point is when I think you'll see a

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significant bottom and energy crisis. And
so that fits with a lot of the

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other markets that I'm looking at to
where we see this final deflationary for lack

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of a better term, or less
inflationary might be more accurate in the current

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environment. Yeah, you see a
less inflationary wave down into a third quarter

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of this year, and then you
start to enter another multi year cycle of

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things steadily inflating after that. Okay, all right, So in cryptocurrencies we

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got to talk about that because bitcoin's
kind of been on fire lately. It

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broke forty seven thousand today as we
were speaking earlier, and you know,

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00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:56,359
it's been on a tear. A
lot of it's due to these spot ETFs

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that are supposedly going to be approved, but we don't really know. What

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00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:07,759
do you think about bitcoin? I
still contend that it set a major bottom

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back in late twenty twenty two,
and throughout the second half of last year.

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My kind of ultimate upside target or
the current wave was to see bitcoin

249
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yet above forty five thousand, and
there were a couple of targets that published

250
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:32,920
that were at between in the forty
six to forty seven thousand levels. So

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we're right there, and it certainly
fits with what you're saying that I believe

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00:24:38,799 --> 00:24:48,519
it's tomorrow, January tenth, that
the first one, is it like arcshareses

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00:24:48,599 --> 00:24:56,920
or something something like that, is
the first one that they're expecting some indication

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as to whether an ETF will be
approved or not. And if you've had

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00:25:03,759 --> 00:25:10,160
this rally, particularly since early October, a lot of it has been,

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00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,839
like you said, linked to that
expectation. Well, then you start to

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go to the old adage of buy
the rumor sell the fact type of thing.

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It wouldn't be surprised. It wouldn't
surprise me at all to see bitcoin

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top out, even if it is
good news, you know, even if

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they do approve etfor or start to
move that whole process in a more forward

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00:25:34,839 --> 00:25:41,200
direction, it wouldn't surprise me at
all to see a top and a sell

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00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:48,000
off. I'm kind of looking at
the mid November lows in bitcoin ethereum as

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being your key support and or downside
target for the next correction. And that's

264
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the other thing I been kind of
looking is that, you know, Bitcoin

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is the one still rallying to new
highs, whereas some of the others are

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are diverging over the last month.
And that could also be one of those

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indications that cryptos have have kind of
run their course for this sphase, this

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trend, this part of the trend, and that it's time for more of

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a consolidation or corrective phase. I
do think that later on in the year

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we'll have another time when there's a
lot of upside potential, and you do

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have the dollar factor in there too, that if you do start to see

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the dollar decline that I expect over
the next couple of years that your investors

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and your speculators start to pour into
alternative dollar alternatives, and so certainly the

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00:27:00,839 --> 00:27:06,599
will or should benefit from that,
just as they did during some of the

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previous selloffs in the dollar. Okay, interesting there, Interesting what other markets

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we got to pay attention to?
Interest rates? Obviously an important one there.

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Yeah, that was actually what I
was just about to say when we're

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discussing that. That also the outlook
I have for bonds, notes, and

279
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inversely interest rates fits very closely with
the cycles I was talking about with inflation,

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with crude, with many of these
other markets. And the thing is,

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what is more convincing to me is
when a lot of these cycles have

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a pretty high level of non correlation, and so like in the case of

283
00:28:03,519 --> 00:28:07,799
interest rates, in the case of
bonds, they've had this consistent four year

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cycle that I documented back into nineteen
nineties and even before then, and it

285
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perfectly timed, and I had this
published for a year before the fact.

286
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:29,039
Why I thought middle of twenty twenty
would be a major multi year, potentially

287
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:36,759
multi decade high end bonds so low
in interst rates and that July twenty twenty

288
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:42,200
cycle top in bonds was four years
from a multi year top in July of

289
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:48,119
twenty sixteen, which was four years
from a top in July twenty twelve,

290
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and all of those told me to
look for a secondary top future top in

291
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third quarter, ideally July of twenty
twenty four. And so as I was

292
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:06,319
writing throughout twenty twenty explain why I
thought bonds would have a two to three

293
00:29:06,359 --> 00:29:11,400
year decline, likely stretching that into
twenty twenty three, and then you would

294
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get a pretty decent bounce into this
next cycle high, which should be a

295
00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:25,400
secondary a lower cycle high in July
of twenty twenty four. And so that

296
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:30,000
would mean that interest rates come down
in that period between the fourth quarter of

297
00:29:30,039 --> 00:29:36,440
twenty twenty three and beginning of the
third quarter of twenty twenty four. So

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that's been my outlook for four years
now as far as at general roadmap or

299
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bonds, And now you get some
of these other markets indicating things that are

300
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:55,799
typically closely correlated, and by that
I mean if you do get another round

301
00:29:56,000 --> 00:30:03,880
of commodity deflation inflation leading into during
the second quarter of this year, well

302
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:11,680
that's something that would certainly favor bonds
heading back up, interest rates pulling down

303
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:17,079
a bit along with some of the
other markets that I'm looking at. So

304
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:22,799
from an intermarket correlation, which I
always advise my readers to be very careful

305
00:30:22,799 --> 00:30:27,279
when you're trying to trade off of
innermarket correlations, but there are certainly some

306
00:30:27,519 --> 00:30:37,319
general conclusions that can often be made
from those associations. It fits that bonds

307
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:45,079
would see a rebound into that timeframe
and that they would see their next significant

308
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:53,799
peak in a third quarter of twenty
twenty four, just as commodities are bottoming

309
00:30:53,880 --> 00:31:00,960
out. So that's kind of consistent
with the scenario mapping out here for the

310
00:31:02,359 --> 00:31:11,160
next couple quarters in the overall economy. Okay, so what other markets should

311
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:17,319
we be paying attention to here?
That really is a lot of the primary

312
00:31:17,359 --> 00:31:22,640
ones that I'm watching, kind of
on a site note of Bettles and had

313
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:33,119
Platinum showing me some bullish signs and
cycles from November into about May this year,

314
00:31:33,359 --> 00:31:37,759
November of last year until they have
this year. I think that that

315
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:45,039
could have a decent run up in
there. I'm trying to think what other

316
00:31:45,559 --> 00:31:53,400
markets. Natural gas has pretty much
completed it's plunge from what were multi year

317
00:31:53,440 --> 00:32:00,599
cycle highs in twenty twenty two.
I think that's got a prolonged basing period,

318
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:08,920
looking for a bit of a rally
here in January, but nothing overly

319
00:32:09,079 --> 00:32:17,839
significant anytime soon. And I don't
know if there's any other markets or market

320
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:25,319
complexes that really jump out at me
right now. I do see wheat in

321
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:31,599
the grain markets showing signs at bottoming
that could have some decent upside potential in

322
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:37,599
the coming months, But that's about
it on my radar as far as major

323
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:42,240
things right now. Okay, yeah, I was going to ask you about

324
00:32:42,279 --> 00:32:47,559
food, and you don't really track
real estate per se, but based on

325
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:54,279
interest rates and other markets, Carada
Hazard and a guest there. Well,

326
00:32:54,319 --> 00:33:00,720
the one thing actually I did want
to touch on one longer term cycle that

327
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:07,599
I was discussing it back in the
early two thousands. In fact, even

328
00:33:07,799 --> 00:33:17,319
have a secondary URL website full seventeen
year cycle dot com because there was just

329
00:33:17,359 --> 00:33:23,160
so much research and an also analysis
that I was doing market analysis that was

330
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:30,799
tied into this seventeen year cycle,
and it's a very unique cycle. It

331
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:45,480
actually has a very documented and valid
fundamental purpose in that that there's research on

332
00:33:45,759 --> 00:33:57,759
the magnetic interconnectivity and relationship between the
Sun and Earth that oscillates on a seventeen

333
00:33:57,839 --> 00:34:02,759
year cycle. I only came across
that research after all, my market research

334
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:08,360
was already showing me this seventeen year
cycle, and then come to find that

335
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:16,320
there was some rationale behind why that
might be the case. But what I

336
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:23,119
explained back then, and it's I
had several big reports from two thousand and

337
00:34:23,119 --> 00:34:28,320
six and two thousand and seven that
are still archived on our website, But

338
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,679
it was showing me that two thousand
and seven should time a multi year top

339
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:37,480
in the stock market, and you
should see a thirty five to fifty percent

340
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:45,639
one to three year plunge from from
that peak. And this seventeen year cycle

341
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:52,960
has time kind of a unique pair
of events over the last century, and

342
00:34:53,039 --> 00:35:00,639
that pair of events is stop selling
off significantly and Middle East conflict, Middle

343
00:35:00,639 --> 00:35:08,480
East wars flaring up, and the
early stage of that cycle were in nineteen

344
00:35:08,519 --> 00:35:14,239
thirty nine, then nineteen fifty six, which was a Suez crisis, the

345
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:19,360
nineteen seventy three Yan Kapoor War,
and also a fifty percent drop in the

346
00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:24,679
stock market, and seventy three seventy
four, then nineteen ninety Raq and Kuwait

347
00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:32,400
and a it's about a twenty percent
drop in stocks two thousand and seven wasn't

348
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:37,679
quite as significant where the Middle East
aspect was, but certainly we had our

349
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:44,360
forty fifty percent dropping in the stock
market, and twenty twenty four twenty twenty

350
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:51,239
five is the next phase of that
cycle. And the reason I mentioned that

351
00:35:51,400 --> 00:36:00,199
part is because there's also been kind
of an interesting correlation of that to interest

352
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:05,079
rates and real estate. When I
was discussing this last year, when I

353
00:36:05,119 --> 00:36:10,599
thought that October would time a probably
a six to twelve month, maybe even

354
00:36:10,679 --> 00:36:16,119
one to two year bottom in bonds, but I went revisited this seventeen year

355
00:36:16,159 --> 00:36:22,119
cycle that I was already discussing in
my stock market outlook for the next couple

356
00:36:22,119 --> 00:36:29,800
of years, but showing how it
was seventeen years prior to our our bottom

357
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:35,199
and bonds, our recent bottom in
bonds, seventeen years prior when the housing

358
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:44,400
affordability index at its lowest level,
and you soon after had a real estate

359
00:36:44,599 --> 00:36:51,719
crash, and that also coincided with
the last time. It was the third

360
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,920
quarter of two thousand and six when
the plund was target rate peaked at five

361
00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:00,840
and a quarter percent, completing a
three year surgeon in at the same time

362
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:06,000
a major real estate peak was taking
hold. The other thing I just read

363
00:37:06,039 --> 00:37:12,280
about third quarter of two thousand and
six perfectly applied to third quarter of twenty

364
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:16,719
twenty three as well. FIT funds
starting rate peaked at just above five and

365
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:21,920
a quarter percent, completing a three
year surgeon interest rate. At the same

366
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:27,519
time, real estate levels appear to
be peaking. And if you go back

367
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:31,320
to not only to that two thousand
and six time, you go seventeen years

368
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:37,039
earlier in nineteen eighty nine, fit
funds peaked in third quarter of eighty nine

369
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:42,920
just blow ten percent at the time, and it was completing a three year

370
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:49,000
served in interest rates, and real
estates suffered after that out lines well.

371
00:37:49,079 --> 00:37:52,920
And so you have this seventeen year
cycle impacting a lot of different things,

372
00:37:53,480 --> 00:38:00,480
and so far with the way bonds
have reacted to that potential for a major

373
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:05,679
bottom in October twenty twenty three,
it appears at that seventeen year cycle is

374
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,119
coming back right on alive, alive, and will huh, yes, yes,

375
00:38:09,199 --> 00:38:15,840
and it will be interesting to see, you know. Some of the

376
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:22,320
general knowledge of real estate is,
oh, there's such a housing shortage,

377
00:38:22,119 --> 00:38:28,239
and no one wanting to sell and
trade their three percent mortgages for a new

378
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:34,000
seven percent mortgage, that prices just
have to keep going up. Well,

379
00:38:34,559 --> 00:38:40,039
anytime the general knowledge is that something
has to happen. I start looking for

380
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:46,320
what most people didn't recognize and what
may come out of left field. And

381
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:52,159
I don't know exactly what that is, but to me, it's telling me

382
00:38:52,239 --> 00:39:00,079
to watch for a peak in real
estate and interest rates responding either leading or

383
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:06,960
lagging. That that turnaround. Interesting. Interesting. Well, the tree does

384
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:12,840
not grow to the sky, right, we know that exactly, And it's

385
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,599
always when you think it can never
go down again, that reality has a

386
00:39:16,599 --> 00:39:22,840
way of biting you in the butt, right exactly. Yeah, So so

387
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:29,440
right there, you should be careful. So if you were thinking of downsizing

388
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,719
whatever, would this be a time
you would be thinking of selling your home?

389
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:39,280
I well, obviously not right now, but if it's something, if

390
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:45,519
we saw a decent correction in prices
and saw interest rates come down, that

391
00:39:45,559 --> 00:39:52,639
would certainly provide a prime opportunity.
But at the current moment, it's you

392
00:39:52,679 --> 00:39:58,239
know, we're still very close to
the peak. So I'm not rushing out

393
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:04,079
to be buying any state. Okay, but you're not selling either, right,

394
00:40:04,519 --> 00:40:07,599
No? No, okay, So
I just wanted to get that well,

395
00:40:08,199 --> 00:40:13,599
Eric, been a lengthy conversation,
really covered a lot of markets.

396
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:19,559
I think we get the gist of
what you're saying and as always, appreciate

397
00:40:19,599 --> 00:40:23,599
you coming on. They make sure
you go check out Eric's site inside track

398
00:40:23,679 --> 00:40:30,840
Trading. That's i NSID track Trading
dot com. A question for Eric myself

399
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:37,039
kl at Carrie LUTs dot com is
the place to send it, and you'll

400
00:40:37,039 --> 00:40:42,079
find in the show notes of this
interview Eric's site. Just click through.

401
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,079
While you're there, sign up for
your free newsletter. Eric. Always a

402
00:40:45,079 --> 00:40:51,639
pleasure, and I'm looking forward to
seeing how these predictions jibe with the reality

403
00:40:51,639 --> 00:40:53,079
of the markets in the year ahead. Yeah, it could be a very

404
00:40:53,079 --> 00:40:57,480
interesting year or two. Thanks for
having me back, Jerry, Thanks for

405
00:40:57,559 --> 00:41:02,800
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Service Network, your solution to today's trying times.

406
00:41:04,119 --> 00:41:09,679
For the latest, go to Financial
Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now

407
00:41:09,679 --> 00:41:10,519
more than ever,