Yeah, I guess see. The only thing is if the fit you know
waives a magic club like Paul Volker did in the early eighties, that that
eventually brought it to a screeching halt. But I agree that that you know,
FED policy isn't going to do a whole lot and in that same vein
as what I was just talking about with the first phases of dollar index versus
goal dollar versus other currencies. You're listening to Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival Network
where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's
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to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. And welcome you are listening to the Financial Survival
Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Well, twenty twenty three was
quite a year. Here we are in twenty twenty four. Wanted to get
Eric Haddock back and get your views Eric on where we're heading for twenty twenty
four. Hey, you find Eric over at inside track Trading. That's I
nside Tracktrading dot com. Got a question for Eric or myself. Shoot me
an email Klatcarrie Lutz dot com. Eric, Hey, it's January ninth.
I'm glad we're getting you on here early in the year. So I remember
you mentioning that the strong dollar made you realize that, among other things,
that we were going to get a Democrat in the White House. Now we've
had a weaker dollar, although it's not as weak as where we started out
once upon a time. Any prognostications about the election, well, what I
discussed with that too is more of a not where we are now, but
where it moves during the administration. So you need a little crystal ball where
that's concerned. But the discussion we had even I think I even had it
with you back in in twenty sixteen when it was showing to me a Republican
even before they knew who the candidate was. And the pattern has been over
the last forty to fifty years that during Republican administrations the dollar tends to trade
lower, and during democratic administrations it trends higher. And that's obviously that's kind
of from start to finish that within there you're going to have your swings.
So any particular six month or even one year. Part of that might not
or might contradict the overall trend, But I would say that from a dollar
perspective, I have been saying all along that I thought the dollar would head
lower from the beginning of twenty twenty three into about the end of twenty twenty
five, maybe even carrying over into twenty twenty six. So from just a
purely dollar outlook, that's what I've been looking for, and I think we
kind of have the first big leg of that down and we're probably in for
some consolidation in the dollar. But as far as administrations and whatnot, a
lot of that would also hinge on how much of that move comes between now
and the end of twenty twenty four. It may just you may get most
of the down and move then and then it stabilizes. So long answer to
a short question as far as is political prognostication, No, that's not really
giving me anything convincing to hang my hat on. But I do think the
dollar is going to be a big factor in a lot of economic issues,
in potentially another future batt of inflation, and in a lot of other factors
within our economy. Because I think it has completed a fourteen year bull market
from two thousand and eight into late twenty twenty two, and that's based on
the Dollar Index, and I think that that Dollar index is going to work
its way back at top dout around one thirteen. I think by the time
we're over, it's going to be back down to between eighty eight and ninety
so. And I think that some of that has to do with geopolitical monitor
competition, everything from from China to the Bricks Nations, and the ongoing battle
against the global hegemony of the dollar and looking for alternatives to it. And
I think we're entering that time frame where many of the efforts that have been
put forth the last ten to fifteen years are going to start to reach fruition.
And you know, that doesn't mean a collapse in the dollar or anything
like that, but you take ten percent of its reserve authority away from it,
and that has big ramifications for the US and US debt and who's interested
in buying it and who's not, and a lot of other factors that stem
from that. Yeah. Well, the one thing I've felt like the dollar
was on its way out men many times in the past, and somehow it's
stuck. It out. And you know, it's been over one hundred years
now since the advent of the Federal Reserve, and here we are. It's
it's still sticking it out. But I guess in the long run, all
fiat currencies returned to their intrinsic value, right well, And that's part of
it too, And that's why I even specified dollar index when I was talking
about fourteen year bull market, because back in twenty thirteen, twenty fourteen,
twenty fifteen, I was doing a series of articles on this forty year cycle
that I've documented going back hundreds of years, even predating the US in Europe.
But it times these battles between heart currency and other forms. Often it's
a paper fiat current. See. You know, you even go back to
what is it the I think it was the sixteen nineties, fifty sixteen nineties
in the Plymouth Bay Colony and their experiment and then you had experiment with the
continentals right after the declaration of independence. And in this forty year cycle had
timed these these battles between fiat currency hard currency, and it was showing me
that twenty sixteen would start it actually culminate one forty year cycle from twenty sixteen
to twenty twenty one, and then a new forty year cycle would begin twenty
twenty one. And both of those the end of the one cycle in the
beginning of the next were both telling me to look for dollar weakness against things
like gold. Well, when I just mentioned the dollar index that rallied from
two thousand and eight and didn't hit its peak until twenty twenty two. But
if you look at the dollar versus gold, the dollar topped out in the
end of twenty fifteen versus gold, and it has not even come back close
to those levels that goal gained from early twenty sixteen all the wayend of late
twenty twenty. Now it's had several retests of its highs, and it's getting
more and more prone to a future breakout to the upside in gold, and
that to me is also part of what you will see. The dollar index
itself now starts to take a first dive, and that's kind of the diversions
you see in a lot of markets that the dollar to most observers looked like
it was still holding up from twenty sixteen to the present or to the end
of twenty twenty two, But in reality, when you look at it on
other basis and versus other currency, it was weakening, weakening, and that's
kind of the first stage of a transition. And then when it becomes clear
to the masses is when you have much bigger moves, when panic buying or
selling enters in and you start to get accelerated moves. And I think that's
what we could be in for in the coming years. Well, in fairness
to the dollar, basically every currency became weaker versus gold over the past decade,
right, Well, yeah, and that's that's what even the dollar index
strength kind of tells you, is the Dollar index was gaining in the last
half of the last decade twenty sixteen to twenty twenty one. On balance,
it was gaining. It actually had some pretty significant moves in both directions,
but on the whole it gained even as gold gained too. Which, yes,
that tells you that the dollar index was the helpiest course in the glue
factory, so to speak. But yes, it doesn't mean it's strong other
than when you're comparing it for other kiak currency. Yeah. We we always
say it's the best looking house in Baltimore. Okay, I'm not familiar enough
with Baltimore in real estate. I know they had a real resurrection around the
waterfront and what not alas decade or so, but I don't so much about
it. So hasn't gone too good since then. But but you know what
I'm saying, it's it's basically here. Yeah. Yeah, So let's talk
about individual markets first. Like you made reference to inflation, and of course
inflation run in Inflation runs in cycles as well. You and I lived through
the list inflationary cycle sixties, seventies and eighties. It's not like the FED
weighs a magic wand and it goes away. So what about the inflationary cycle
that we're in now? What can we look forward to there? Yeah,
I guess see. The only thing is if the FED, you know,
waves a magic club like Paul Volker did in the early eighties, that that
eventually brought it to a screeching halt. But I agree that that, you
know, FED policy isn't going to do a whole lot. And in that
same vein as what I was just talking about with the first phases of dollar
index versus goal dollar versus other currencies, I also think there's a factor there
of inflation and dollar weakness, And by that I mean that you had this
first run up inflate of inflation from you know, late twenty twenty to late
twenty twenty two, although there's been continual residual effects of it. I think
they kind of identify many of the inflation indexes as peaking out in third quarter
of twenty twenty two. But I think that you know, historically you've seen
too that a week er dollar can certainly prod inflation, you know, just
by critical thinking there if everything you're buying you're now buying with a weaker currency
by comparison, just like we're talking about the comparison of gold the dollar,
well commodities, it's the dollar weekends. As I expect, anything you're purchasing
with that dollar is going to be more expensive relatively speaking, And so I
think it's one of those things where we probably will see another round of inflation
down the road a bit. I think we're into this reaction phase now.
One of the things that I gauge my perception of inflation because I'm more concerned
with commodity inflation commodity prices, and so I watch things like the Golden and
SACS commodity index as a little bit of a gauge, and that really peeked
out in the early part of twenty twenty two has been heading lower ever since.
That is heavily weighted in oil and energy, but even apart from that,
commodities have been coming off. And it's something where I'm from that index
and from mid to longer term cycles. I'm looking at a bounce in it
right now during the first quarter, but I think it could see another drop
into who I'm kind of looking around the July August time frame, and that
would be when I would expect it to bottom out. So after that would
be when I would expect the next phase of inflation to start. And it
doesn't mean that it comes roaring back within a few months. You know,
it's going to need to kind of base out and start to slowly build momentum.
So it's probably more looking out in that twenty twenty five, maybe even
twenty twenty six timeframe, when I think we'd it would be more apparent that
a second wave of inflation is well entrenched. Uh huh, Okay, Well,
that's interesting and the kind of goes along with my thinking because these things
go in waves as well, right, absolutely so, so you get a
really bad wave and then it eases off, becuse whatever. But the only
way the FED could really stop it is to just stop the economy, right,
I mean to diminish the economy so much that it can't function well enough
to produce inflation. Right. Yeah, And you know that's not going to
happen in the next In the current year and an election year with either party,
you know that it doesn't want to be viewed as being political, and
so they're going to be kind of walking a tightrope and trying to be just
very balanced and as neutral as they can while still trying to influence the markets
the way they're hoping, right right. Okay, so let's talk about markets.
So you would think a loss of purchasing power gold is going to do
well in that environment. I think that, yes, that gold has more
upside down the road. Gold has just very consistently been one of these markets
where it kind of whips sideways in a trading range for months on end,
and then within a few weeks or maybe two months, it makes an entire
move and then it plateaus again and trade sideways. So it's one of those
things where you want to certainly be patient and saving your ammunition, but you
also want to be ready to move when it gives those first signals. A
couple of perfect examples were in twenty twenty three, and this is where the
cycles and charts were just so instrumental. I did several reports in late twenty
twenty two saying where there was a consistent seven year cycle that was bottoming,
and gold late twenty twenty two is seven years from the late twenty fifteen low,
which was seven years from the late two thousand and eight low, which
was twenty seven years from the late two thousand and one low, and for
me, it looked like gold was ready to enter a three to four year
bull market. But again it's that's in the way I just described that you'll
get some initial advances and you'll get a lot of sideways trading. And so
I have a couple of indicators that really helped me pinpoint when accelerated moves following
turning points are most likely. And so in early March gold signaled one of
those and generated a couple of bicygnals in early March, and every publication I
put out for the next two months, I just kept saying everything shows gold
should accelerate up into the first week of May and then then top out until
late twenty twenty three. Well, gold serbs right up into May fourth,
I think silver beat on May fourth or fifth, and then they just sat
for the next They declined on a slower basis into early October, and as
we were coming into the latter part of the year, this same combination of
indicators was saying to look for a search in November and probably peaking out in
the first week of December. And I even had a very specific upside target
in gold that was linked to that at twenty one to fifty two, and
sure enough, these indicators kind of confirmed it. In mid November, gold
and silver accelerated to the upside. Gold peaked on December fourth, I believe
it was at twenty one to fifty two, and that just ushered in another
one of these trading ranges. So it's again it's looking for those opportunities.
I mean, if you're just buying and holding, then fine that you also
want to kind of buy what it's bolt back to give yourself the best potential
for gains. But from a training perspective, it's important to just kind of
be patient with gold, wait for those indicators to set up, and they
often do it once or twice a year and then indicate when that one to
two month surge is most likely. And so that's what I'm looking at in
gold over the coming months and years. But I'm also along with that,
looking at the ultimate breakout to the upside. And I discussed this back earlier
this year of the whole pattern structure that gold was setting up, and so
far it has continued to fill what I described back then, but on a
continuous basis, continuous contract basis. Gold peaked around twenty seventy back in late
twenty twenty and then around twenty seventy back in early twenty twenty two and has
just gone back up and for three weeks in a row. The nearby contract
closed right around twenty seventy before a pullback. Hearing gold, it is getting
closer and closer to an upside breakout. So I think that when you get
the next signal from these indicators, you're probably going to get an even bigger
move because you'll get that momentum of a breakout to the upside. So you
think it's this year, I do think it will be this year, and
these indicators I'm watching are giving kind of some subtle hints of when I think
that could be, but they really need to line up a bit more,
get a bit more specific before I start to put too much weight on that
timing. Okay, so let's talk about because when you talk about inflations,
particularly in commodities, you got to look at energy because it's so huge.
It's so hugely important to every economy in the world. So what is in
store for energy prices. One of the things that I discussed throughout twenty twenty
three was a combination of monthly, quarterly, and multi year cycles all that
were telling me to look for a peak in your crude. In products,
natural gas is completely different, and those cycles were telling me to look for
a final peak in mid September of twenty twenty three. That was a consistent
even five year cycle in crude. The previous peak like that was in a
fourth quarter of twenty eighteen, and monthly cycles were aligning with that, even
a lot of multi week cycles. So I thought, and still think that
your September peak in the energy markets is a very significant one that could hold
for quite some time. And when I mentioned that, I'm looking at the
Golden SAX commodity index rallying right now, but then probably seeing another sell off
into third quarter of this year. Since that's so heavily weighted in energy,
it wouldn't be surprising to see crude and products have another sell off and set
a more significant bottom at that time. Right now, I did have mid
December as being what I thought would be a multi month bottom. But unless
crude can turn a monthly and a weekly trend indicator that I use or kind
of clarification of the trends and cycles, unless it turns that positive, I
would expect it to go back down to the December lows and probably below them
leading into mid year. At that point is when I think you'll see a
significant bottom and energy crisis. And so that fits with a lot of the
other markets that I'm looking at to where we see this final deflationary for lack
of a better term, or less inflationary might be more accurate in the current
environment. Yeah, you see a less inflationary wave down into a third quarter
of this year, and then you start to enter another multi year cycle of
things steadily inflating after that. Okay, all right, So in cryptocurrencies we
got to talk about that because bitcoin's kind of been on fire lately. It
broke forty seven thousand today as we were speaking earlier, and you know,
it's been on a tear. A lot of it's due to these spot ETFs
that are supposedly going to be approved, but we don't really know. What
do you think about bitcoin? I still contend that it set a major bottom
back in late twenty twenty two, and throughout the second half of last year.
My kind of ultimate upside target or the current wave was to see bitcoin
yet above forty five thousand, and there were a couple of targets that published
that were at between in the forty six to forty seven thousand levels. So
we're right there, and it certainly fits with what you're saying that I believe
it's tomorrow, January tenth, that the first one, is it like arcshareses
or something something like that, is the first one that they're expecting some indication
as to whether an ETF will be approved or not. And if you've had
this rally, particularly since early October, a lot of it has been,
like you said, linked to that expectation. Well, then you start to
go to the old adage of buy the rumor sell the fact type of thing.
It wouldn't be surprised. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see bitcoin
top out, even if it is good news, you know, even if
they do approve etfor or start to move that whole process in a more forward
direction, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a top and a sell
off. I'm kind of looking at the mid November lows in bitcoin ethereum as
being your key support and or downside target for the next correction. And that's
the other thing I been kind of looking is that, you know, Bitcoin
is the one still rallying to new highs, whereas some of the others are
are diverging over the last month. And that could also be one of those
indications that cryptos have have kind of run their course for this sphase, this
trend, this part of the trend, and that it's time for more of
a consolidation or corrective phase. I do think that later on in the year
we'll have another time when there's a lot of upside potential, and you do
have the dollar factor in there too, that if you do start to see
the dollar decline that I expect over the next couple of years that your investors
and your speculators start to pour into alternative dollar alternatives, and so certainly the
will or should benefit from that, just as they did during some of the
previous selloffs in the dollar. Okay, interesting there, Interesting what other markets
we got to pay attention to? Interest rates? Obviously an important one there.
Yeah, that was actually what I was just about to say when we're
discussing that. That also the outlook I have for bonds, notes, and
inversely interest rates fits very closely with the cycles I was talking about with inflation,
with crude, with many of these other markets. And the thing is,
what is more convincing to me is when a lot of these cycles have
a pretty high level of non correlation, and so like in the case of
interest rates, in the case of bonds, they've had this consistent four year
cycle that I documented back into nineteen nineties and even before then, and it
perfectly timed, and I had this published for a year before the fact.
Why I thought middle of twenty twenty would be a major multi year, potentially
multi decade high end bonds so low in interst rates and that July twenty twenty
cycle top in bonds was four years from a multi year top in July of
twenty sixteen, which was four years from a top in July twenty twelve,
and all of those told me to look for a secondary top future top in
third quarter, ideally July of twenty twenty four. And so as I was
writing throughout twenty twenty explain why I thought bonds would have a two to three
year decline, likely stretching that into twenty twenty three, and then you would
get a pretty decent bounce into this next cycle high, which should be a
secondary a lower cycle high in July of twenty twenty four. And so that
would mean that interest rates come down in that period between the fourth quarter of
twenty twenty three and beginning of the third quarter of twenty twenty four. So
that's been my outlook for four years now as far as at general roadmap or
bonds, And now you get some of these other markets indicating things that are
typically closely correlated, and by that I mean if you do get another round
of commodity deflation inflation leading into during the second quarter of this year, well
that's something that would certainly favor bonds heading back up, interest rates pulling down
a bit along with some of the other markets that I'm looking at. So
from an intermarket correlation, which I always advise my readers to be very careful
when you're trying to trade off of innermarket correlations, but there are certainly some
general conclusions that can often be made from those associations. It fits that bonds
would see a rebound into that timeframe and that they would see their next significant
peak in a third quarter of twenty twenty four, just as commodities are bottoming
out. So that's kind of consistent with the scenario mapping out here for the
next couple quarters in the overall economy. Okay, so what other markets should
we be paying attention to here? That really is a lot of the primary
ones that I'm watching, kind of on a site note of Bettles and had
Platinum showing me some bullish signs and cycles from November into about May this year,
November of last year until they have this year. I think that that
could have a decent run up in there. I'm trying to think what other
markets. Natural gas has pretty much completed it's plunge from what were multi year
cycle highs in twenty twenty two. I think that's got a prolonged basing period,
looking for a bit of a rally here in January, but nothing overly
significant anytime soon. And I don't know if there's any other markets or market
complexes that really jump out at me right now. I do see wheat in
the grain markets showing signs at bottoming that could have some decent upside potential in
the coming months, But that's about it on my radar as far as major
things right now. Okay, yeah, I was going to ask you about
food, and you don't really track real estate per se, but based on
interest rates and other markets, Carada Hazard and a guest there. Well,
the one thing actually I did want to touch on one longer term cycle that
I was discussing it back in the early two thousands. In fact, even
have a secondary URL website full seventeen year cycle dot com because there was just
so much research and an also analysis that I was doing market analysis that was
tied into this seventeen year cycle, and it's a very unique cycle. It
actually has a very documented and valid fundamental purpose in that that there's research on
the magnetic interconnectivity and relationship between the Sun and Earth that oscillates on a seventeen
year cycle. I only came across that research after all, my market research
was already showing me this seventeen year cycle, and then come to find that
there was some rationale behind why that might be the case. But what I
explained back then, and it's I had several big reports from two thousand and
six and two thousand and seven that are still archived on our website, But
it was showing me that two thousand and seven should time a multi year top
in the stock market, and you should see a thirty five to fifty percent
one to three year plunge from from that peak. And this seventeen year cycle
has time kind of a unique pair of events over the last century, and
that pair of events is stop selling off significantly and Middle East conflict, Middle
East wars flaring up, and the early stage of that cycle were in nineteen
thirty nine, then nineteen fifty six, which was a Suez crisis, the
nineteen seventy three Yan Kapoor War, and also a fifty percent drop in the
stock market, and seventy three seventy four, then nineteen ninety Raq and Kuwait
and a it's about a twenty percent drop in stocks two thousand and seven wasn't
quite as significant where the Middle East aspect was, but certainly we had our
forty fifty percent dropping in the stock market, and twenty twenty four twenty twenty
five is the next phase of that cycle. And the reason I mentioned that
part is because there's also been kind of an interesting correlation of that to interest
rates and real estate. When I was discussing this last year, when I
thought that October would time a probably a six to twelve month, maybe even
one to two year bottom in bonds, but I went revisited this seventeen year
cycle that I was already discussing in my stock market outlook for the next couple
of years, but showing how it was seventeen years prior to our our bottom
and bonds, our recent bottom in bonds, seventeen years prior when the housing
affordability index at its lowest level, and you soon after had a real estate
crash, and that also coincided with the last time. It was the third
quarter of two thousand and six when the plund was target rate peaked at five
and a quarter percent, completing a three year surgeon in at the same time
a major real estate peak was taking hold. The other thing I just read
about third quarter of two thousand and six perfectly applied to third quarter of twenty
twenty three as well. FIT funds starting rate peaked at just above five and
a quarter percent, completing a three year surgeon interest rate. At the same
time, real estate levels appear to be peaking. And if you go back
to not only to that two thousand and six time, you go seventeen years
earlier in nineteen eighty nine, fit funds peaked in third quarter of eighty nine
just blow ten percent at the time, and it was completing a three year
served in interest rates, and real estates suffered after that out lines well.
And so you have this seventeen year cycle impacting a lot of different things,
and so far with the way bonds have reacted to that potential for a major
bottom in October twenty twenty three, it appears at that seventeen year cycle is
coming back right on alive, alive, and will huh, yes, yes,
and it will be interesting to see, you know. Some of the
general knowledge of real estate is, oh, there's such a housing shortage,
and no one wanting to sell and trade their three percent mortgages for a new
seven percent mortgage, that prices just have to keep going up. Well,
anytime the general knowledge is that something has to happen. I start looking for
what most people didn't recognize and what may come out of left field. And
I don't know exactly what that is, but to me, it's telling me
to watch for a peak in real estate and interest rates responding either leading or
lagging. That that turnaround. Interesting. Interesting. Well, the tree does
not grow to the sky, right, we know that exactly, And it's
always when you think it can never go down again, that reality has a
way of biting you in the butt, right exactly. Yeah, So so
right there, you should be careful. So if you were thinking of downsizing
whatever, would this be a time you would be thinking of selling your home?
I well, obviously not right now, but if it's something, if
we saw a decent correction in prices and saw interest rates come down, that
would certainly provide a prime opportunity. But at the current moment, it's you
know, we're still very close to the peak. So I'm not rushing out
to be buying any state. Okay, but you're not selling either, right,
No? No, okay, So I just wanted to get that well,
Eric, been a lengthy conversation, really covered a lot of markets.
I think we get the gist of what you're saying and as always, appreciate
you coming on. They make sure you go check out Eric's site inside track
Trading. That's i NSID track Trading dot com. A question for Eric myself
kl at Carrie LUTs dot com is the place to send it, and you'll
find in the show notes of this interview Eric's site. Just click through.
While you're there, sign up for your free newsletter. Eric. Always a
pleasure, and I'm looking forward to seeing how these predictions jibe with the reality
of the markets in the year ahead. Yeah, it could be a very
interesting year or two. Thanks for having me back, Jerry, Thanks for
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Service Network, your solution to today's trying times.
For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now
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