Today we are on the hunt for a missing spacecraft. The suspect in question
has made away with four point two billion dollars in NASA funding with the promise
to develop a spacecraft that will transport astronauts and cargo to the International Space Station.
Almost a decade later, and one of the biggest aerospace companies on the
planet has failed to deliver a crew capable spacecraft. So where is the Boeing
Starliner? This is the space race. NASA has been at the forefront of
space exploration since the Cold War, and there is no more iconic NASA vehicle
than the Space Shuttle. It may have been dangerous, it may have been
preposterously expensive, It may have even been somewhat of a failure in many regards,
but the Shuttle was easily the most prolific and recognizable spacecraft of its day,
becoming a symbol of human space exploration over three decades of operation. Most
of these missions involved transporting astronauts to the International Space Station, which was first
launched in nineteen ninety eight and has been continuously inhabited by people since the year
two thousand. But in two thousand and eleven, NASA decided to finally retire
the Space Shuttle program, and that left American astronauts with no other option than
the Russian so used rocket for flying to and from the ISS. And while
the United States and Russia are partners in the International Space Station project, NASA
would prefer to not be dependent on Russia for all its launch needs. It
doesn't help that Russia is a major political rival to the United States. With
this in mind, NASA introduced the Commercial Crew Program in two thousand and eleven.
The idea was to partner with American private companies to deliver astronauts to and
from the International Space Station. NASA would award contracts and the companies would compete
with each other to develop the most innervative, cost effective, and safe solutions
to get crew to the International Space Station. Fast forward to twenty fourteen,
and after a lengthy bidding process, NASA awarded Boeing a four point two billion
dollar contract to develop the CST one hundred Starliner spacecraft and carry out six missions
to the International Space Station. Elon Musk's SpaceX also won a contract worth two
point six billion dollars to develop the Crew Dragon spacecraft and conduct six missions of
their own with two private companies in the mix. The assumption was that a
healthy competition would result in a better product delivered quicker and more efficiently than if
NASA developed it themselves, and having two companies on board prevented a monopoly.
Unfortunately, what should have been an exciting domestic space race ended up being far
more one sided than NASA would have predicted. SpaceX launched its first crude mission
in twenty twenty, and Boeing is not set to try their own until at
least April twenty twenty four. So let's dig a little into what went wrong
with Boeing. They were to conduct the first test flight in twenty sixteen,
but issues in development forced an eight month delay. The aircraft was too heavy
and the team was working to reduce mass and address some issues with aerodynamic drag,
pushing the test launch date to twenty seventeen. Twenty seventeen came and went
with no launch in sight and a new date of July twenty eighteen, but
once again another issue reared its head. During testing, Boeing discovered a hypergolic
propellant leak. This is the self combusting fuel mixture used in the vehicle's maneuvering
thrusters. And it is incredibly toxic. Any kind of fuel leak is bad,
but hyperglic fuel leaks in a crude capsule are worse. So back to
the factory it went for further development and a new launch date of November twenty
nine, nineteen. The first flight of the CST one hundred star Liner capsule
was a pad abort test, which is a practical demonstration of the craft's abort
system engines. Starliner accelerated away from the launch pad successfully, but when landing,
one of the three parachutes failed to deploy. That being said, the
capsule did land within safety parameters, so even though it wasn't a complete success,
it was not a complete failure either. A month later, in December
twenty nineteen, Boeing felt strong enough to attempt their first test flight all the
way to the International Space Station, known as an orbital flight test. This
is an unmanned flight that launches from Earth, gets to the International Space Station,
docks at the station, and then successfully and safely returns to Earth.
But and we are starting to see a pattern here, there were problems.
Once again. The Starliner's internal timer was off by eleven hours initiating an orbital
insertion burn much earlier than needed. This put the spacecraft in the incorrect trajectory
and prevented it from reaching the International Space Station entirely. It eventually had to
land in New Mexico within two days of flying. The second major error on
this test flight involved thrusters that angle the craft to avoid damaging heat shields that
protect the craft during re entry. Both of these were primarily software issues,
but it diminished a lot of the already waning confidence in Boeing's capability to deliver
on this project. It also led to an in depth review between the company
and NASA, identifying eighty areas that needed to be updated and corrected. It
then took Boeing two and a half years to fix these errors and a few
other problems, as they ironed out every potential issue they could think of.
But that's the nature of problems. They always lurk around the corner, and
Boeing were once again reacquainted with them. In April twenty twenty one, the
redesign and up dated Starliner was at the launch site ready for its second orbital
flight test. During final testing, though an issue was discovered with thirteen engine
valves in the craft, and exposure to the salty air at Cape Canaveral,
Florida led to corrosion, and with tolerances so tight, it was simply unsafe
to launch. Boeing tried to remedy the problem on site, but eventually decided
canceling the test flight was the safer option. A year later, in May
twenty twenty two, Boeing did manage another orbital test flight. The spacecraft launched
and returned to Earth successfully after docking at the International Space Station, but even
here it wasn't smooth sailing as some systems didn't work as expected. Two orbital
maneuvering and altitude control thrusters also known as OMAC thrusters, failed during the orbital
insertion phase of the flight, but the spacecraft was able to compensate with the
remaining OMAC thrusters. A couple of reaction control system thrusters used at the docking
all failed due to low chamber pressure, but with a safe flight it was
deemed a success. The next step would be a final test with crew on
board. Boeing had initially planned the crew test flight for December twenty twenty two.
Unfortunately, Boeing's dance with delays returned and the launch first got pushed to
February twenty twenty three, then April twenty twenty three, and further to July
twenty twenty three, with another final update in April twenty twenty four. So
why the latest delay, Well, the parachute problem persists and if humans are
going to be traveling in it, Boeing is taking absolutely no chances. Engineers
have found that the soft links used on the suspension lines of Starliner's three main
parachutes cannot handle the load of the craft if one of them fails, and
being able to land with just two out of the three parachutes is a safety
requirement for NASA. Boeing engineers have now created a more robust soft link and
redesigned the parachute system, and it's set to be tested sometime in November twenty
twenty three. But then again another problem surfaced more recently wiring. The P
two to one to three glass fabric tape covering the electrical wires in the capsule
was found to be a fire hazard. While it is commonly used in the
aerospace industry to wrap wires to prevent chafing in certain conditions and at different oxygen
concentrations, it can be flammable, and Boeing would really prefer if the star
Liner did not self immolate, especially with crew on board. So as Boeing
tries to solve these they have wisely refrained from an exact launch date. But
if things go to plan, the star Liner could be transporting crew sometime in
twenty twenty four. But while Boeing struggles, the SpaceX Crew Dragon has been
running away with virtually no competition. Sure, they had a few Falcon nine
rockets explode during testing, but their August twenty twenty three flight marks the seventh
successful crew transportation to the International Space Station, with the first happening way back
in twenty twenty. Their next mission is scheduled for early twenty twenty four,
and they've seen their initial six mission contract with NASA jump to fourteen missions,
bringing their total contract value to almost five billion dollars. In addition to that,
the cost for seats on Crew Dragon are almost half of the star Liner.
While SpaceX charges fifty five million dollars per astronaut, Boeing comes in at
ninety million dollars as per NASA documents. Boeing did release a statement refuting that
cost, stating their capsule could carry five astronauts as opposed to the standard four,
which means it would cost less. But until the company actually manages to
send a crew into orbit, we'll just have to wait and see. Speaking
of costs, NASA contracting these two Boeing and SpaceX instead of developing it themselves
saves the agency about twenty to thirty billion dollars. So while NASA benefits from
lower costs, BOW and SpaceX get to have someone else put the bill for
development. And this is technology that they still hold intellectual property rights to,
allowing them to use it for other commercial projects and profit from. In addition
to the cost benefits, this has also pushed the United States to once again
become the world leader in space. After twenty eleven, the United States had
zero percent of the global commercial launch market. Today, thanks to SpaceX alone,
they have seventy percent, and this has resulted in NASA being a huge
contributor to the SpaceX revenue to the tune of millions every year. This is
significant and might be an indicator as to why Boeing continues to pursue the Starliner
project, even though spaceflight only accounts for a small portion of the company revenue.
After the company lost billions due to the grounding of its seven thirty seven
maxplane and air travel demand plummeting during the COVID pandemic, the star Liner project
might just be a revenue source worth pursuing. That being said, there's no
taking away that it is a project that is bleeding Boeing a lot of money
right now. Since the contract was awarded, the company has already racked up
close to one point five billion in loss, and every delay costs it more.
Also, the contracts are just for transporting crew to the International Space Station,
which will only be operational until twenty thirty, so there's a timeframe on
that. Boeing, though, is committed to fulfilling its contractual obligations. Mark
Nappy, Boeing Starliner Vice President and program manager, reiterated they were still committed
to six crewed missions and one crewde test flight to the International Space Station.
But more importantly, does Boeing see a future for the star Liner project beyond
the NASA contract? Well, Without the contract, further development can get very
costly. In an interview, and Boeing Vice President of Exploration Systems, John
Shannon was asked if the company planned to continue the program long term, he
gave an ambiguous answer, saying it was a great question and he wished he
had an answer to it. This uncertainty indicates Boeing is yet to determine if
the entire project is even still worth it, and with the lead SpaceX has
on them, it might be harder to catch up, even if they do
get everything up and running smoothly for commercial application beyond NASA. On the other
hand, there are alternatives that will very soon become viable. Sierra Space didn't
manage to get the initial NASA contract, but their Dreamchaser spacecraft has been in
development for two decades and is pretty much ready. Right alongside is Blue Origins
NW Glenn Spacecraft commercial space flights, and their demand will continue increasing as time
progresses. Right now, SpaceX has the competitive advantage, and any other player
that wants a piece of the pie will have to work very hard to catch
up. Sierras Space in Blue Origin look ready to take on the challenge,
but will Boeing finally join the fray as well. Only time will tell.