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You know, as crazy as it
sounds, the Fed's actually they're not killing

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the patient right now. Right Historically, the FED constantly, you know,

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over medicates the patient and then then
the economy dies, and you know,

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the FED causes more recessions than they
save. You know, we seem to

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have been slowing down, right,
So let's hope that that continues. I

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mean, if we could turn the
you curve around without a major vers even

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if you know it was a small
recession or something like that, like that

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would be a huge win right right
now? Is that gonna happen? You

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00:00:35,079 --> 00:00:40,320
were listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival
Network, where you get valuable information you

10
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:45,759
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in today's trying times. You need the

11
00:00:45,799 --> 00:00:52,359
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12
00:00:52,399 --> 00:00:58,920
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

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00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:06,680
And welcome. You are listening to
and watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm

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00:01:06,719 --> 00:01:08,920
your host, Kerry Lutz. Ay, we got some big numbers out pm

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I numbers. Where's the economy heading
and what should you do about it?

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That's really the question. James Locke
is with US now from Pool Locke.

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It's great to have you back,
James, so hey first, got a

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question or comment for James myself?
Shoot us an email KL at Carrie Lutz

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dot com. So, James,
pm I number comes out weaker, well,

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weaker than expected in quotes, No
surprises here. Are we in a

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recession yet or not? I guess
officially not right? We need we need

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two quarters of negative GDP, which, of course, the last time that

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happened, the government lied to us
and said we aren't in a recession.

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It's going to be harder to dance
around it this year. But you know

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that I that's that's a good indication
because that's you know, all the producers

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and what they're what they're doing,
so you know they're gonna be a leading

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indicator of what's going to be on
the shelves and out there and available and

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what what people are buying right right, And if they're scaling back, it's

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because they know consumers aren't going to
be purchasing now. You know, the

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US consumer so far has been unstoppable
pretty much, and you know, I

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wonder when that's going to come to
a to a head, and it will

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right right, because you know,
despite the American belief that we can spend

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our way out of things, and
sometimes it works, it does, and

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it's not necessarily a bad thing.
But if we're not manufacturing and producing,

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that's that's you know, that's going
to ultimately lead to going into recession.

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So when you know, I've been
telling and talking with my clients about mid

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twenty twenty four, if the FED
raises rates again, I think that might

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accelerate that. I really hoped the
FED doesn't, but I do think,

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you know, with this economy slow
down, we have less optimism, uh

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for for next year. I think
they're predicting GDP to be around one percent,

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yeah in twenty twenty four, which
you know one percent can turn into

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negative real quick. Oh yeah,
yeah, I mean that's a rounding error,

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right, that's exactly right. Yeah, you know, you know they

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it's funny you say that because they
all the time revise numbers down, you

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know, the next month and then
you know previous months, and and that

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just kind of gets swept under the
rug a lot of times. And you

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know sometimes that the devil's in the
details, right when they start revising numbers

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down, you know that it's that
it's indicating hey there's there's problems. Yeah,

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And I always see these revisions two
months later and boom, you know,

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right, it's it's like, oh, well they bought a headline,

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is what it comes to, right, Yeah, that's exactly right. So

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and so I do think recession is
happening, and we're going to see more

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of these or the best way I
describe it as you know, lower highs

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and lower lows as we move forward. Right, So where the S and

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P got down to close to forty
one hundred and then you know, and

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it's going to raise rates, Okay, great, and we rally we rallied

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back a little. And you know, the question is is that going to

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be enough to push us all the
way back to forty eight hundred and five

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thousand? In no way? Right, Yeah, I still think we're going

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to end the year somewhere around forty
one hundred on the S and P.

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Yeah, and so that's a little
lower than here, you know, in

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that same breath, I don't have
any reason to see I mean, economy

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isn't terrible, right, that's the
other thing. So I have no reason

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to say we're going to uh slide
away into you know serious, you know,

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loss of value in the market.
Now, an election year coming up,

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you know, politics aside. Biden
is not doing anything to help this

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economy, you know now, isn't
that his job or actually the job the

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politicians is not to do anything to
hurt it? What kind of really do

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to help it other than dumping money
into you know, helicopter money here right

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these? Yes, And you know, I just think that leadership, you

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know, as crazy as it sounds, the Fed's actually they're not killing the

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patient right now. Right Historically,
the FED constantly, you know, over

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medicates the patient and then then the
economy dies. And you know, the

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FED causes more recessions than they save. You know, we seem to have

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been slowing down, right, So
let's let's hope that that continues. I

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mean, if we could turn the
yield curve around without a major even if

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you know it's a small recession or
something like that, like that would be

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a huge win right right now?
Is that going to happen? Well,

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we'll see. Now they're starting to
chatter again about the FED raising rates another

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quarter point in December. I think
that's a bad idea. Yeah, well,

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so you think they're going to raise
him Well, it's the chatter has

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started again. But still if you
watch that like fed Rey and the predictions,

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they're still saying no. So I
think the FED is going to be

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smart about it. They're probably going
to continue to talk tough, but I

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think we're going to see that they're
going to leave rates alone and you know,

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continue to be and I think they
are data dependent. They're going to

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wait and see and you know,
if we do start having negative GDP quarters,

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then they'll probably still leave it alone. I think I don't think we're

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going to get any rate cuts in
June of twenty twenty four. I think

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that's optimistic. We may go through
the whole year without it, but towards

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the end of the year may start
being a reality. Okay, all right,

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I'll buy it. I'll buy it. So what else do you think

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is in store here? You know, at some point they're going to have

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to cut rates when things start really
falling apart. What about the banks?

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What's your take on what's going on
with the banks? Yeah, so with

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the slowdown of the interest rates,
that's easing pressure on the banks, and

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I think they're finally starting to,
you know, at least get their footing

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underneath them. They're certainly not out
of the woods. I mean, the

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amount of debt banks are carrying and
the pressure of you know, interest rates

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being up this high so quickly,
you know, means that there's still risk

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out there, right right, there's
still risk out there. So I'm not

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you know, some of the bigger
banks don't really you know, they can,

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they can weather the storm a little
bit easier, But these regional ones,

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I don't. I don't like it
all. We definitely stay out of

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them from an investment point of view, you know, we I don't.

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I don't want to. You know, that could pop up at any time,

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you know, if there's some sort
of only is you know, warrent

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is real to get out of control
in some way and then we start having

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economic repercussions from it, and that
puts pressure on the banking system. So

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there's all kinds of you know,
holes that can pop up in our in

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our boat, and we already have
a weak banking system. So I don't

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do you know, I don't,
I don't right now, I'm not.

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I don't want to go and say
I'm anti bank stocks and things like that,

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but we're not. We're not adding
to any positions or doing anything with

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regional banks, some of the larger
ones. We you know, we'll we'll

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hold some positions, all right.
So oil one hundred dollars a barrel,

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oiil? It guarantees a recession,
doesn't it? Yes, it does.

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I think there's too much chaos in
the Middle East. I'd be surprised if

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oil doesn't hit on a barrel you
know where it's a little bit of a

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crystal ball kind of look and feel. But you know, I don't think

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it's too risky a speculation at this
point right now, and I'm with you.

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I mean, it could hit one
hundred of barrel and then this is

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all these fine lines when it gets
up there. What kind of recession are

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we talking about? What kind of
chaos is going on in the Middle East?

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You know, our oil producers cutting
off their nose despite their face a

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little you know, money lust for
oil only goes so far. Are we

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doing things internally in the US to
you know, produce our own energy?

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And this goes back to you know, government policy and Biden is not the

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best. Actually, there was a
great article in Zero Hedge. I don't

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remember where the article came from,
but that US oil production is hitting peak

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level thirteen million barrels a day,
because try as the ADMIN might to destroy

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the oil industry, the demand is
there. The technology keeps advancing. I

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was just in an oil field out
in Canada, right out in Saskatchewan,

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and it's heavy, heavy oil,
and they taken the fields that were depleted

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by vertical wells because vertical wells are
not good for heavy oil. And they're

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drilling new wells there all over the
place. They've drilled five of them.

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I mean, this company, if
they if it's one hundred dollars barrel oil,

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they're going to cash in. They're
just going to be renting money.

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And their costs keep going down to
James because they've taken this depleted field with

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a lot of capital investment there and
they've done the three D size seismograph seismolot

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on it and you know, like
small company, but it's a microcap could

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turn into a medium sized producer in
the not too distant future. I'm not

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pushing this. All I'm saying is
this is a field that was given up

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for dead, you know, went
through bankruptcies and everything else, and now

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it's an extremely profitable field. And
that's exactly what's happening in the Permian base,

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and so thirteen million barrels a day, and that's with the admin pushing

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against it. Imagine if it was
like the last administration, which was drill,

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baby drill, we'd be fifteen million
and OPEK would be a non entity.

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Right, That's see, that's the
thing is, this is why I

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don't understand why people can't see that, like making OPEC and non entity or

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not as important as it is,
is like that's the best thing we could

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do as a country. Stiff felt
like, it's not We're never going to

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be self. We use so much
oil energy, right, you know,

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it's not like we're never going to
be importing oil, but we're in boarding.

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Yeah. Yeah, Well, I
mean that's the whole world needs it

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now. And the more we can
do and the more we control that,

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the better. I mean, we're
starting to see all of these, you

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know, on a much smaller level
person to see all these kind of what

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i'll call you know, private investment
into land drilling and all this sort of

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stuff. Now, you know,
when I put my fiduciary financial advisor AD

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on, I'm never a big fan
about I liquid investments, but when they're

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talking about the natural gas and oil. You know, like you said,

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you mentioned something, you just kind
of breezed over it. But technology is

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huge, right, oh my god. Yeah, Like I watched I watched

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them, you know, the roughnecks
on the field doing their thing, and

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you know the way they monitor it. And and there's even more innovations coming

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where you can take you can treat
this heavy oil with certain chemicals and turn

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it into light sweet oil. Yeah, be huge, Yeah, I mean

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there's so much heavy oil around,
a lot of which isn't really desirable the

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scheme of it. So a one
hundred dollars barrel oil for sure, certainly

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with the hostility of our government against
oil, real possibilities. So hey,

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what about the student loan debt.
It doesn't seem to have made a big

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impact, the fact that people now
now you have to pay your student loans,

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even though you got away without paying
them for nearly three years. I

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mean, hey, talk about a
vacation here, a moratorium, right right,

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Yeah, And it's great I have
to be a debtor. It's great

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time to be a saver right as
well. Yeah, but but you're right

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there, you know, the student
loan debt that's gonna be something that's going

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to take a long time to kind
of have an effect because people start paying

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00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,480
and stop spending on anything. It's
going to it's going to continue to slow

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down the economy, which is where
I was saying, Hey, we hope

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the Fed doesn't push too much because
a lot of these things take months,

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six, twelve, eighteen months to
really have an effect, you know,

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on us. And when you start
talking about you know, these these debt

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00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,399
repayments being forced, and you know, it's it's a mixed bag, right,

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00:14:26,519 --> 00:14:28,679
like, well, you took the
loan out, you know, for

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00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,679
a reason, you should repay it. You know, go out and get

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00:14:31,679 --> 00:14:35,840
a job that can allow you to
repay it. You know, that makes

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00:14:35,879 --> 00:14:39,320
sense. But we don't want to
you know, you don't want it to

190
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be too much so that it's stifling. But but that's definitely going to have

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an effect. We're going to see
that, right, continue to affect the

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the thing now again, the administration
continues to fight to try to make that

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disappear, and you know that just
doesn't make any sense either to make it

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00:14:58,159 --> 00:15:05,440
to make a disappear. We need
to make you know, education affordable for

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00:15:05,759 --> 00:15:11,799
more people. That's the bottom line, I like, because that's how you

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make our future better, right,
is when we put educated people back into

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the workforce. Smart people, you
know, means that we can turn things

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00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:28,519
that were previously garbage frown on the
side into usable energy. And that all

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00:15:28,559 --> 00:15:33,279
comes from research and development and having
the right people doing things, and you

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00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:39,600
know, we want smart workers to
be out there exactly exactly one or two

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other points. So you mentioned in
the pre notes here about pretty much homeowners

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00:15:48,039 --> 00:15:54,639
being locked in to their mortgages.
I can relate to that. Hey,

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so what what of that? What's
what's going to take to get people out

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00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,879
out of the out of your own
to downsize when it costs you more to

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downsize than it does to upsize here, right, it's not it's it's going

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to stay that way. And you
even said, you know, look,

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you even commented like you know,
you're you're not moving, and I'm not

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suggesting you're moving. But it does
more than just lock you into your home,

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which you may not be a bad
thing because you're paying this rate,

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so you're not going to sell your
home. So it shrinks the available market

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size out there. Own prices are
remaining high. So we're now we're stopping

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first time own buyers from coming in
to the market as well. And it

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also does things like if I am
so, I'm here in Wilmington, Delaware,

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right, If if there's a job
in Saint Louis, right, and

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I have to up and move and
it's going to cost me a ton to

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sell or move there, I may
not take that job. Right. So

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00:17:00,799 --> 00:17:04,599
it's again, like as crazy as
it sounds, you know, people not

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willing to sell their homes can actually
affect the economy down the line as well.

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And you know all these things are
are interconnected, right, it's not

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it's not any one piece, right, So we need we need that,

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not that we need it, but
at some point we have to get interest

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rate down a little for mortgages to
come down a little. And you know

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what we might find is home prices
may not drop, but we might find

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home prices remaining flat for a decade. Now, all right, I can

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relate to that, all right,
Any other comments you want to make,

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James about the state of things before
we call it a call it a day.

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Yeah, Listen, the world isn't
coming to an end, right,

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but there are there are concerns out
there. There are black swan events out

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there that are possible. You always
got to, you know, keep your

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protected. We always you know,
we always stay income focused and you know,

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making sure that needs met or met
and and you know from from guaranteed

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things and things that are predictable.
There's no reason to take risk just for

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risks sake, take risk for rewards
sake. Right, just keep focused so

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we'll see what happens by the end
of the year. We like that,

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all right, James say, appreciate
you coming on. Got a question for

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00:18:26,799 --> 00:18:30,759
me or James k l at Carrie
LUTs dot com, poolock dot com.

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00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:36,440
And hey, while you're at the
site Financial Survival Network dot com, make

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00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,559
sure you sign up for your free
newsletter. James, always a pleasure,

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00:18:38,599 --> 00:18:44,359
Thanks for stopping by. Thank you, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial

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00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:48,599
Survival Network, your solution to today's
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00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:56,240
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