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What is crack alacking Hardwin Knox listeners. It is the return, the return

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of Adam Prommeell to Hardwood Knocks after
a hiatus while he was very busy doing

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other things, but also we were
just trying to get through our Team look

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Ahead series. All thirty teams are
done. They are up, they are

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posted. Check our podcast feed,
check our YouTube page. They're all there.

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We have a landing page at NBA
Math. Check our Twitter accounts at

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Hardwood Knox, at NBA Underscore Math. They are up everywhere. It was

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fantastic. It was fun. Go
listen to your favorite team, bounce around

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to some of the other teams that
you don't know enough about. Download every

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episode because that helps us out a
ton. Adam is back to handling the

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intros. But I want to do
our usual preamble. I will try and

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keep it shorter than usual, which
I guess I'm not doing a good job

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of since I'm mentioning I'm trying to
make it shorter, which in turn makes

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it longer. Let's keep moving.
Remember to rate, review, and subscribe

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to Hardwin Knox. Wherever you get
your podcasts, even if you don't use

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iTunes, head over there. Sir, Charboard Knox Store's a five start rating

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in review. Thus help us out
a ton. If you're only here for

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the first time, please consider throwing
us that permanent subscription. We cover the

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entire MBA at large and aim to
be only modestly insufferable about it. We

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are getting into our over under predictions
for the season. We did not when

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we have time to spend up into
two podcasts. I said, fuck that.

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Adam said fuck that. This is
one long ass podcast. As long

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as you don't download this episode immediately
after I post it, there will be

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timestamps. Bounce around, find your
favorite team, find of our favorite teams.

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Get mad at our predictions, but
download the episode listen to it.

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It was a lot of fun recording
this. Hopefully you guys appreciate the time

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stamps, because those are a lot
of fucking work. I don't want to

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I'm not playing the martyr card here, but hopefully you guys really do appreciate

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the timestamps. That's enough out of
me, though. We're gonna get into

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some over undertalk and please welcome back
Adam Fro. The band is back together.

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It was fun, it was great, it was grand. Let's do

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it Hello everyone, and welcome to
the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks. This

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is Adam Fromwell back from a long
hiatus to join Dan Favalley as we go

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through every team in the NBA and
do some over under win predictions fore twenty

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two season. I've been away for
so long because Dan has been soldiering through

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these team by team previews, talking
to an expert, a local expert for

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each and every team in the NBA, gearing up with some just excellent in

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depth previews. We have a landing
page for them up on NBA math.

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I would highly recommend that you check
it out. It has access to each

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and every one of the episodes,
as well as detailed, thorough time stamps

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that help you kind of navigate through
them. And I'm also just I'm a

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little intimidated for this episode, Dan, because I have not been talking to

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experts on each and every team before
we do the over unders, So I

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feel like this is an unfair advantage
and I need some sort of handicap here.

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I think, let's bought you a
couple of teams, and look,

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you might be right, because I
did do We didn't get through all thirty

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teams because last year's offseason was a
fucking nightmare. But I did to look

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ahead preview again and if anyone cares
about our results, we've both finished above

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five hundred in the wind artament.
You were sixteen and fourteen. I was

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twenty two and eight. That is
shocking. That was a revelation to me.

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So maybe it does give me an
unfair advantage. I will say I

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had to go back and I did
updated win totals for our podcast. We

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do win totals on each of the
previews for anyone who listens, but I'm

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basing these off the latest ones in
my picks. I was a little generous

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with the overs at first, so
I went back and I had to make

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some tough cuts because I was like, there can't be twenty three teams they're

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hitting me over. I must be
like drinking the kool aid as I'm talking

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to all these people who are able
to sell me on the team that they

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cover. See, that's why I
always approached these by putting them away and

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building my own wind projections for the
season for it, because essentially you have

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to make sure they add up to
the right number of games, and that

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kind of makes sure that I'm not
going to end up with twenty six overs

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and four unders, which it kind
of has seemed like has been the case

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for the guest predictions on these again
thorough and excellent previews, but with the

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over unders, it's definitely seemed like
there's a little bit of homering going on.

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All I can say, though,
is my method got me to twenty

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two and eight and you were sixteen
and fourteen. Make of that what you

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will. I'm not saying for a
handicap. That's again like I'm fully acknowledging

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this. It's an unfair advantage.
It is what it is, but it's

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an unfair advantage we do normally we
are this is an undertaking for us,

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not because we have to do it. We don't mind doing it, but

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we need to make this podcast not
eight hours long, and we're trying to

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go through all thirty teams, and
we normally split these up like we do

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with each conference, Like when Grant
Hughes and I did report Cards, we

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recorded a two and a half hour
podcast on each of the conferences. So

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let's not make this a five hour
podcast. I will try and keep us

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to a timer. But do you
want to guide us through these over unders?

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Do you have any notes or anything
though, But before we get started,

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yes, one note is that I
think we need some stakes this year.

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And look, you backed out of
a prepared Okay, I know,

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and it was because John Morant got
hurt and I just assumed that Memphis would

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fall off more than it did.
But coward, so be it. Yeah.

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Well, that's why I'm coming with
the idea of having a bet for

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this one. And I think what
we should do is it still has to

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be NBA related, but I think
the winner should get to pick a thoroughly

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ridiculous, ridiculous topic and we have
to do an episode about it. I'm

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with it. So we just want
to go straight record, yeah, I

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think so, or we could do
like the Total Games off. Let's just

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think that's I didn't do like win
projections, So let's just do a great

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record, okay. And if there's
like a big discrepancy through the podcast,

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we might need like another side bet, like you have to get if we

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disagree on like the Knicks, you
have to get my face my portrait tattooed

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on your back. If I'm right
or wrong, I was gonna say neck

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all right, nick forehead, even
if that's like straight Jordan Clarkson style.

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I'm ready to do this. I
think I feel wildly not confident about this,

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but you can tell me. You
did not tell me where we got

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the wind totals from, and I
feel like I need to plug that source

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as I'm going through this wind beat
Baby sponsored by their partnership with Blue Wire.

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Where else would we get our lines
from. I was just giving you

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a chance to promo. No,
you ran with it perfectly, but then

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questioned it just invalidated the whole thing. These lines are from win Bet.

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They are accurate as of Saturday,
October sixteenth. I will say if there's

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a certain someone that gets traded from
a certain team, but before these go

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live or before the season starts,
highly unlikely. I do think it's like

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the James Harden situation last year with
the Rockets. We both tried to factor

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that in. I would have to
bake it in. I was more correct

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than you were wrong. But like
I made these projections where for the like,

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I made some assumptions, like I
don't think Jamal Murray's playing before March

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in Denver. I don't think Kawhi
Leonard is going to play this year for

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la Et cetera, et cetera.
But if I'm picking a team, like

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let's just use the Knicks as an
example, I didn't in my mind like

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try and hedge against them getting obliterated
by injuries. You're trying to work with

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like the most common or most known
information that you have the likeliest outcomes.

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Yeah, and so like, if
there's a team that decides to blow it

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up that I didn't see coming,
then yeah, that line is going to

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be white off one way or the
other, right, And I guess that

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leads into the only other note that
I have before we really dive into this

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with the Atlanta Hawks, And that's
that this felt so much harder this year

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because you can make more compelling,
upside driven cases for a lot more teams

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than you can in many seasons.
Often the bottom feeders in both the East

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and the West are at a certain
stage in their rebuilding process where it's like,

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no, even if everything goes right, you're not a playoff team.

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We can just lock that in.
It feels like for almost every team in

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the league you can build like very
much a super stretch of a case,

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but a case none the less because
they have so many players with a lot

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of draft pedigree with a lot of
realizable upside that you can sell yourself on

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the pseudo unrealistic upside for just almost
every team in the league this year.

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I mostly agree with you, but
having heard some of your off the record

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takes before we started recording, I'm
also inclined to say that I do not

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unequivocally one agree with you, and
that may come up that I am surprised

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that you struggled with the Hawks one
though, so do you want to take

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us through them? You have the
win totals in prot of you, right,

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I didn't struggle with the Hawks.
I was just giving that as a

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general note. But yes, we
can start with the Hawks. The over

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under was set at forty seven and
a half games, and I just think

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that's way too low. This is
actually one that I had a good bit

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of discrepancy because I have them projected
at fifty one wins. This team has

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already shown what it can do in
the last year's playoffs, but at the

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same time, it's so young that
it is entirely realistic for them to do

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so much more. This is very
much a year we could see Trey Young

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put together some sort of MVP case
more like on the back of the ballot

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than for the number one spot.
What if DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish breakout,

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John Collins is back, Clint Capella
is healthy, on Yuka kong Wu

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showed a bunch of flashes in the
playoffs, as did Kevin Hurder. Bogdan

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Bogdanovitch is healthy, Delon Wright and
Shariff Cooper give much better point guard depth

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than the Hawks have had at any
point in the in the near past,

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which has been a huge issue for
them because there's so much responsibility he'd done

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Trey Young shoulders, then when he
leaves the game, they're in big trouble.

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So there's so much to like about
a disciplined team under Nate McMillan that

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I just even if they do take
their foot off the gas, this is

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the deepest team in the NBA,
and it is just filled with top end

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talent, and it now is prepared
to survive life without Trey Young. So

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I just I don't see where the
losses come from. D And look,

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the data backs that up. When
Bogda Modanovich and Lou Williams played together without

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tre Young last year, the offense
was absolutely fantastic. Now You're probably gonna

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get a healthy DeAndre Hunter. Maybe
Cam Reddish takes a step forward. John

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Collins is going to be better.
I think that was the most one of

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the most underrated things about the postseason
is. Yeah, his numbers did not

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jump off the page. However,
he just found ways to make an impact

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with you know, different mode of
operations where you can't be the primary roller

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of Clinkopela's on the floor. He
still found a way to make an impact

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on offense. He defended really well. I went over here too, and

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that wasn't I didn't even really give
it much thought. I'm just like,

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this is one of the I don't
think we're I think some people think that

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the Hawks there was a rush to
coordinate them last year and had they got

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about their off season and decided like
we needed to do this or that.

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Like I kind of get it.
But this team like wasn't at full strength

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ever last year, and there's a
chance that or they should be healthier this

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year. I'll say, even without
Onyeka kung Wu, you know, to

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start the season. So I would
be genuinely surprised if they stay relatively healthy

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and do not clear this over under
It also played at like a seventy win

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pace or something. Once McMillan took
over during the regular season. This wasn't

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the same team in the second half
that it wasn't the first right and for

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the better obviously. So yeah,
this was an easy one. The next

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one is a second thought. The
next one is not. I'll let you

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start on this one. Boston Celtics
set at forty six and a half.

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I went reluctantly over here. I'm
not actually as high on their depth as

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a lot of the other people who
talk about them are. I know,

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Zach Lowe is fairly high on their
depth. The guest we had, Alt

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Kungu, He's fantastic. He was
a little bit higher on their depth than

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I am. But I do think
like their top seven guys are really good.

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I expect Peyton Pritcher to make a
jump. I love their starters.

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Having Dennis Shrewder is going to be
a big help. I'm concerned a little

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bit about what he looks like playing
for his next contract because he's not staying

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in Boston beyond this season. It's
just not happening. And their offense in

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general, I kind of just wonder
if there's enough creation in some lineups.

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That being said, the defense should
be great. Whether they play Al Horford

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and Robert Williams together or not,
they do have some interesting small ball combinations.

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COVID is running rampant through their team
right now with Horford and John Brown

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having it. I'm just gonna assume
or hope that that doesn't become the long

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term issue for them. Jason Tatum's
like a He's an All NBA player at

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this point. Forty seven wins is
not astronomical, even in an Eastern Conference

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where I think, you know,
for me, there's and we're gonna get

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to the Nets. Milwaukee. The
Nets are in the same tier right now

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because the whole Kyrie Irving stuff,
you I just can't put the Nets ahead

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of Milwaukee there, and then there's
Atlanta for me, and then like there's

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everybody else, like in the meat
Metatos of the East. I think there's

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a chance Boston's gonna emerge is like
that top tier team among that group.

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In lockstep, I had them at
exactly forty seven wins, so just the

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slightest of overs, and it surprised
me because I felt like I was lower

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on this team than what I expected. The consensus to be, but it's

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the exact opposite. And I guess
there are just enough intriguing pieces that we

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haven't seen before, like Dennis Shruder, who I am worried about because I

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don't know that I want to see
what happens when Dennis Shrewder is playing for

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his next contract after self admittedly fumbling
the bag. There are going to be

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some ugly offensive possessions as he tries
to seek out that next payday. But

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still he does bring a dynamic to
this team that it didn't have before.

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I can't wait to see what we're
gonna be witness from Jason Tatum as he

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continues this assent, you know,
from a self admitted top ten or fifteen

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player to a top five as he
wants to be. I'm not sure that

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he gets there this year, but
I would not rule that out based on

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what we've seen from him when he
is playing at his best. So there's

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enough to like here that I think
that you can realistically argue that forty seven

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is going to be too low because
I agree with you that there's a clear

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cut top three in the East,
and then Boston is the most likely candidate

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to join it, and there's like, look, once you get past like

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you have Marcus Smart, Denis Trutter. I still believe in Josh Richardson.

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I like Peyton Pritchard, Jay and
Brown, Jason Tatum obviously, and then

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Robert Williams now Horford. What did
I just name eight players there? Seven?

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Like? It just gets iffy after
that. I don't know what the

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sort of the backup big like I'm
not a big wanhern and Gomez guy.

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I'm not necessarily out on Grant Williams, but he is not developed according to

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Planet are you gonna even play?
I? Is Canner at this point?

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Is Jr? Barry Parker gonna get
some looks? And I also think you

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probably need a lot of people are
high around Aaron E. Smith than I

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am. Are you still holding on
Hope Romeo Langford? They need one of

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the guys that I did not name
it initially, one of those seven guys

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I think to be like valuable and
good and consistent. And I just don't

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know if they'll get there. I
still think as long as they were made

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relatively healthy, they have enough to
flirt with, you know, forty eight

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forty nine wins, And I do
think we see a jump from Pritchard.

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That was a big part of me
giving them that many wins. He look

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in Summer League Yo yo handles and
everything. I hope we get a case

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in that in the regular season Brooklyn
Nets were set at fifty five point five.

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Felt like this was a weird one
because obvious reasons. We don't know

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if Kyrie Irving is going to cave
get vaccinated and actually be able to play

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instead of wasting his time. We
don't know anything about the depth of this

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team, and we don't know how
Kevin and Durant and James Harden are going

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to stay healthy because each of them
is due for a lot of maintenance days.

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Harden has worn down late in a
lot of seasons in the past,

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so are they going to cut back
his responsibilities during the regular season knowing how

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much talent they have on a nightly
basis there, I feel like there are

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a bunch of questions about this team
and they're all negative. So I ended

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up having them at fifty wins because
Durant and Harden are just that good.

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There are a number of other intriguing
pieces. I'm super high Nicholas Claxton,

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but it doesn't seem like, yeah, it doesn't seem like they are We're

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going to feature him because LaMarcus Aldrich
just back, Blake Griffin is back,

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Paul Millsap is here, James Johnson
is still there. There's so much not

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great veteran depth preventing the few young
guys with upside from actually doing things that

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I just I don't know that I
see it is this is that classic team

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that is not going to put up
the true Pinnacle regular season record and is

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going to be hell to deal with
in the playoffs. Yeah, and if

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this was an easy under for me
too. The Kyrie Irving stuff, I

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don't know whether I expect him to
play or not, but I assume that

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the Nets are still going to be
very cautious with games Hard and Kevin Durant's

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availability. Grant is more than half
the season last year, and Harden had

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that hamstring injury. The fact that
he's been an iron man during the regular

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season for his career, to me, almost works against him. It's like

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he's overdue for this major setback.
I know there's no science behind that,

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but that's just how it feels to
me. I'm not concerned about their guard

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depth. They have Patty Mills who
was pretty bad last year to close the

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season. But then, as Christian
Winfield pointed out to me on the podcast

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that we did on the Nets,
he was really good during the Olympics,

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so he's gonna be fine. I
still really like Javon Carter. They have

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plenty of bigs. You're not gonna
play Nicholas Clackson. There's at least depth

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there, and Blake Griffin was good
for them. You had the Bruce Brown

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lineups. They just they need wings, which is such a weird thing to

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say about a team that has James
Harden and Kevin Durant on it and they

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don't have that. So I questioned, like, and they have Joe Harris

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as well, but like that behind
Harris hardened Durant, Like those guys coming

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off the bench. Are they actually
gonna rely on Cam Thomas now or are

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they gonna rely on DeAndre Bembrey.
Is Bruce Brown gonna be like not the

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day facto big in certain lineups because
I actually think that works against Bruce Brown

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offensively. Maybe they have enough shooting
to offset that and he can just chill

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out in the dunker spot or whatever. I don't think that's gonna be crippling.

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I just don't think that this team
gives a shit about the regular season

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and the fact that Kyrie's not there
as of now. And I think you

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could probably say, if I ask
you to peg it, do you think

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Kyrie Irving plays an NBA game for
the Nets this season? No, fifty,

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If it's fifty fifty, if it's
even that high, like that's enough

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for me to just go under.
Fifty six wins is a lot. I

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also just want to pray that they're
gonna end up playing Javon Carter, DeAndre

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Bembrey, Bruce Brown, James Johnson
and Nick Klaxton at the same time,

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just because that is one of the
best. They're going to hustle their asses

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off and no one is going to
want to try to score against that line.

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Yeah, I look there. They
should get weird, especially during the

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minutes where like they're only having one
star. Will they ever play minutes without

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Kevin duran and James Harden off the
court? If they'll tell me that's not

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a super fun defensive lineup. No, But I'm saying, if you're gonna

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have any stretches, whether it's like
a minute or two where both Durant and

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Harden are off the court, and
you obviously don't have Kyrie get Get weird.

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I would be a very big advocate
of that, absolutely. So we're

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three for three so far in terms
of agreeing. And that brings us to

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the Charlotte Hornets and their win total
is set at thirty eight and a half,

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and you're up. I went under
here pretty comfortably. I just think

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that there's like this urgency to crown
them a fringe playoff team, and I

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don't see how they get there yet. I respect that they've just decided they're

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not going to play with a real
center. Mason Pum is gonna play like

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00:19:22,599 --> 00:19:26,160
fifteen to twenty four minutes a game, whatever it is, and that's it.

300
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I don't expect them to give real
run to Kai Jones or Vernon Carrey

301
00:19:29,079 --> 00:19:32,039
Jr. PJ. Washington to five
was a crush for them last year.

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00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:36,039
I imagine it'll be a crutch again. They did the defense was like surprisingly

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okay during those stretches, it's just
can it hold the rebound? He's going

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to be an issue. I really
do like Miles Bridges. We both love

305
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,279
LaMelo ball Terry rose Year. Even
though we kind of cooled off towards the

306
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:51,240
end of last season. His shooting
probably sustains if Gordon Hayward and LaMelo both

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stay healthy. You can look at
this team, they're a lot of good

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00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,359
you know, look at their what
seven best players, LaMelo, Terry Rosier,

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00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,279
Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubrey, Peg
Washington, Miles Bridges and even Mason

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00:20:02,319 --> 00:20:07,160
Plumley. That's great. I just
the backup rotation is very thin once you

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get to Kelly Ubridge junior, and
you know PJ. Washington might be included

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00:20:10,599 --> 00:20:12,880
in that. I don't ish Smith
is a downgrade from Devonte Graham, and

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00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,599
I know Devonte Graham and not have
the best year last year, I think

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00:20:15,599 --> 00:20:18,039
that ends up hurting them. How
much run do they give to James book

315
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,319
Knight and what does does he look
like? Do they even play him?

316
00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:26,200
James Brago is kind of brought along
the kiddos a little bit more slowly,

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and as Canada Edwards pointed out to
me on Twitter the other day, like

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00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,799
there's a chance that Cody Martin plays
instead of him, which for the defense

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00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:34,920
I totally get. I'm just it
feels like we're a year away. Something

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00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,519
special was brewing in Charlotte and I
don't actually care that they don't necessarily have,

321
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,519
like I will spend money on Rashaun
Holmes. I've said that they should

322
00:20:42,519 --> 00:20:45,200
be fine a draft pick for not
paying Rashaun Holmes if that's all's costs to

323
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,440
get them. That being said,
it's just it feels like we're a year

324
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,519
away and that they might be a
player away from being like this five hundred

325
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,680
or better team, which is basically
where this line is peg Dad. I

326
00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,079
feel like they're probably gonna be around
like that thirty two to thirty five win

327
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mark again. And the other thing
to note before I throw it to you

328
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is that they outperformed their point differential
last year in terms of their wins,

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and so like you're looking at a
team that didn't rack up they finished with

330
00:21:14,559 --> 00:21:17,960
last season, they what did they
have? But wrote it down somewhere whatever

331
00:21:18,279 --> 00:21:22,440
they finished with thirty thirty Where are
they? I don't know, Oh,

332
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:23,839
they finished with thirty three wins,
and like they had a point differential of

333
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,920
the team that was actually worse than
that. So I'm not saying I'm just

334
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,039
saying growth isn't linear here. They
could be a little bit worse or just

335
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,680
on par with last season. And
actually be better for the future. I

336
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,200
just think we're still a year away
from it. So yeah, I totally

337
00:21:38,279 --> 00:21:44,160
agree that they're one year away from
being that true playoff team. But I

338
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,200
did end up going with you over
here. I had them at forty wins,

339
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:51,839
so just barely over because I'm so
high on the ceiling of this team

340
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:56,240
when all of the pieces truly coalesce
that I still think that they're going to

341
00:21:56,279 --> 00:22:00,799
make that kind of jump this season. But we already think the world of

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00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:07,480
LaMelo Ball, who asserted himself immediately
as what maybe a top five passer in

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00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,079
the league. Is that reasonable at
this stage? Yeah, I mean he's

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00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,200
that's definitely not egregious. If he's
not, he's close to okay, And

345
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,400
there's still so much more to plumb
here, and the beauty of having a

346
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:25,799
piece like that that now has continuity
with the other key pieces. I expect

347
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,119
Terry Rogier to pick it up where
he left off in the first half of

348
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:33,799
the season. Gordon Hayward is going
to continue to look like a star with

349
00:22:33,039 --> 00:22:37,920
even less defensive attention paid to him. The chemistry that he's shown with PJ.

350
00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:41,200
Washington, both as a pick and
roll and a pick and pop guy

351
00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:45,559
Miles Bridges in transition, Mason Plumley
adds a lot to this team. There's

352
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:52,319
a lot that centers around LaMelo,
and I just think it's already reasonable to

353
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:56,559
be that high on him. I
mean, in the Crystal Basketball project that

354
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we've done an NBA math, all
of the results are out now. We

355
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,000
should plug that as well. So
if you have not checked that out,

356
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:07,000
where we rank every single player who
we think has a shot to play in

357
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,119
the NBA based on training camp and
all that, please check that out.

358
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We had LaMelo ball at fortieth in
that already sandwich between Brandon Ingram and Fred

359
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,440
Vanvley, ranked as an All Star
candidate, and I think we might have

360
00:23:19,559 --> 00:23:22,480
still been a little low on him. I just I expect that kind of

361
00:23:22,559 --> 00:23:29,960
leap in year two. I'm just
worried about them getting lost in the fracas

362
00:23:30,039 --> 00:23:33,119
that is that middle of the Eastern
Conference where I think that they are just

363
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,880
clearly better teams right now. And
that's just what it came down to for

364
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:40,359
me. Yeah, I ended up
just dedicating a lot of wins to the

365
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:44,319
East in these projections because my forty
wins for Charlotte still only gave them the

366
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:49,640
eleventh seed. Wow, that is
I think. I think that there's a

367
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:55,559
ton of like forty two, forty
three, forty four win teams. I

368
00:23:55,599 --> 00:23:59,440
guess we will find out what did
you have for this next team? For

369
00:23:59,519 --> 00:24:03,000
the Chicago Bulls, who were set
at forty three and a half, I

370
00:24:03,039 --> 00:24:06,400
have them at forty one, so
they were one spot ahead of Chicago in

371
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:11,799
my Eastern Conference pecking order. I
was surprised that the line was set this

372
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:18,400
high until I remembered how much name
value there is on this roster with Nikola

373
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,599
Vukovich, with Demarda Rosen, Zak
Lavine, Lonzo Ball, even Alex Caruso

374
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,880
to an extent, given how much
social media attention he's drawn over the last

375
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:33,359
few years of the Lakers. They're
all good players, but I really have

376
00:24:33,519 --> 00:24:37,359
questions about how this team is going
to work because I don't see a path

377
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:45,079
to having even a semi adequate defense
unless Patrick Williams and and Javonte Green end

378
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:51,240
up spending thirty five minutes per game
together. And I worry about the cohesiveness

379
00:24:51,279 --> 00:24:56,079
of the offense because Vouchevich, DeRozan, Lavine and Ball are all best when

380
00:24:56,119 --> 00:25:03,000
they're controlling possessions and It's gonna be
interesting to see how a team that doesn't

381
00:25:03,039 --> 00:25:07,680
even feel like it has like those
mega stars is going to share the ball.

382
00:25:07,799 --> 00:25:11,200
I just I have worries on both
sides of the ball. But I

383
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,640
do think there's so much talent that
they're just going to out talent the opposition

384
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,200
whenever they play one of the true
bottom feeders. I had them, I

385
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:23,000
went reluctantly, reluctantly under I'm not
one of those people that my problem with

386
00:25:23,039 --> 00:25:26,400
the De Rosin thing. I think
de Rosen was a great player. I

387
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:27,839
don't really care about the money.
They just gave up too much to get

388
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:32,319
him, and like the opportunity cost
of now having him in Nicola Vujevic,

389
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:37,039
it was just too high for me. I just I'm very concerned about the

390
00:25:37,079 --> 00:25:38,559
defense. There's just a lot of
good players on this team, and I

391
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,160
think you get to a point where, if it's a close game, you're

392
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,480
in the fourth quarter, can you
pencil vouch de Rosen and lean all on

393
00:25:45,519 --> 00:25:48,200
his givens? The leading has gotten
better on defense, he's still not good,

394
00:25:48,599 --> 00:25:52,119
and so you can have Lonzo there, but and then Patrick Williams,

395
00:25:52,839 --> 00:25:56,000
but like, what are you doing
there? You're not gonna pull Vooge because

396
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,720
you're back. Your big rotation isn't
that great after him, You're gonna have

397
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,440
to rely on told me Bradley.
Maybe they get creative and we see some

398
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,039
Derk Jones Junior at the five or
even Patrick Williams at the five. That

399
00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:07,839
and you're definitely not gonna bench Levine. He's your best player. Lavine is

400
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,680
zach. Lavine is fantastic. He's
shot so well on off the dribble three's

401
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,559
the past couple of years. My
whole thing is just that you of the

402
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:17,720
guts to then bench Jamarta Rosen,
who, by the way, is also

403
00:26:17,799 --> 00:26:21,119
your second best shot creator in the
half court, because that's never been Lonzo

404
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,640
balls m O. There also seems
to be like a conflicting vision here.

405
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,759
And I know they can stagger and
lind Us, but they want to play

406
00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:29,720
fast, which is just not Yeah, Booch can hit some trailer threes,

407
00:26:29,759 --> 00:26:33,640
but like fast, it's not the
Rosen's default speed. They've talked about putting

408
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,759
the ball in the half court in
Lonzo's hands more. That one might not

409
00:26:37,799 --> 00:26:40,759
make sense in general, given how
Lonzo was fair throughout his career, but

410
00:26:40,839 --> 00:26:45,359
when you also have Levigne and Vouch
and a Rosen. The pecking motor gets

411
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,599
complicated. This team is good,
and I could very easily see them it's

412
00:26:49,279 --> 00:26:52,920
too right. I could very easily
see the Bulls being like this very strong

413
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:56,240
regular season team. I don't know
that I would view them as a threat

414
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,759
in the playoffs where they just blow
this over under out of the water and

415
00:26:59,759 --> 00:27:03,079
they like forty eight wins. I'm
just betting against it because you have to.

416
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:04,519
You have to make some tough calls
throughout this process. I don't trust

417
00:27:04,519 --> 00:27:08,839
the defense long term, and they're
like, I don't know, They're not

418
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:11,920
like an injury away from disaster.
But when you look at this roster,

419
00:27:14,039 --> 00:27:15,960
who do you trust? Their starting
lineup is a given, and then you

420
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:18,559
have Alex Cruzer coming off the bench, and then it's like, all right,

421
00:27:18,599 --> 00:27:22,720
DeVante Green is kind of nice.
Is even gonna play? Do you

422
00:27:22,759 --> 00:27:26,960
trust Kobe White to make a leap
when he's healthy? He's dealing with some

423
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,240
shoulder stuff right now. Will Troy
Brown Junior shoot well enough to stay in

424
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,440
the rotation? Alisae Johnson's intriguing,
but are you going to be relying on

425
00:27:33,519 --> 00:27:34,680
him? This looks really good in
the preseason, but I don't know how

426
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,920
how scalable it's going to be,
right, And so there's just after there.

427
00:27:38,079 --> 00:27:41,839
I'll say after their top six guys, because Kobe White is just is

428
00:27:41,839 --> 00:27:48,160
he redundant at all? When you
have Lavine and Rosen already, I would

429
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,680
say no because Lonzo Ball is not
that traditional shock creator and I don't think

430
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,599
Kobe White is supposed to be a
point guard. Still, that's only them

431
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,880
like seven guys where it's like and
just Kobe White is still such a mystery

432
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,039
box to me. So I in
my reserve rations about this team. But

433
00:28:00,079 --> 00:28:03,200
this is the one if you're trying
to spot where I feel like I could

434
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:08,359
be just way off, this is
one of those spots. Yeah, agree

435
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,440
with all of that. It's a
very risky one, but if you're going

436
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:17,160
the most likely and it's risky not
because it's necessarily the most likely outcome that

437
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,079
it goes over, but it's risky
because there's so much potential for it to

438
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:23,160
be like the Knicks last year,
where you're just off by twenty games.

439
00:28:26,279 --> 00:28:29,680
Yeah, that would Knicks word disaster. Hopefully, hopefully they're not a disaster

440
00:28:29,759 --> 00:28:33,279
this year for us. The Cavaliers
are up next. The Cavaliers were set

441
00:28:33,319 --> 00:28:37,279
at twenty seven and a half wins, and you're leading us on this one.

442
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,839
Yeah, so I went under here
as well. I'm just at the

443
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:45,960
point where it's okay. They have
a lot of talent on this roster.

444
00:28:45,119 --> 00:28:49,599
I really like Darius Garland and Colin
Sexton. I also think that Isaaco Korro

445
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,160
is not being mentioned enough as a
good player. He's already maybe maybe grace

446
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,079
too strong a word. He can
already defend. I think it's not too

447
00:28:57,119 --> 00:29:00,240
strong. He's and he's moved well
without the ball, and I think there's

448
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,240
some playmaking there. I don't want
to read too much into his jumper like

449
00:29:03,279 --> 00:29:07,680
not being there, but you know, a good player. I'm intrigued by

450
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,000
Evan Mobley more than I wasn't the
draft. I thought they made a mistake

451
00:29:11,039 --> 00:29:14,359
by drafting him and then paying Jared
Allen. I'm still just not sold on

452
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,039
that fit, even after watching the
ground that Evan Mobley can cover. And

453
00:29:17,039 --> 00:29:19,440
then you get Larry market In again, someone who's a fine player, but

454
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:23,559
they're one probably banking on the fact
that he has more to show offensively.

455
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,119
I just don't know if I trust
him having a floor game. The shooting

456
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,599
should be fine, but it just
seems so jumbled there. You're gonna play

457
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,200
Larry Market at the three for some
stretches because you really don't have like these

458
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:40,200
backup wings. There's Jetty Osman and
there's Dylan Windler, who is healthy this

459
00:29:40,279 --> 00:29:45,359
time for real? Maybe probably not. It's so what is happening after really

460
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,240
the starting five? You know,
Kevin Law doesn't have to factor into here

461
00:29:48,279 --> 00:29:51,759
too much for that, and if
he's playing well, I'm sure that helps

462
00:29:51,839 --> 00:29:55,759
them. I think Ricky Rubio makes
a huge difference as a backup point guard

463
00:29:55,799 --> 00:30:00,240
and can help in the minutes where
Colin Sexton's playing without Darius Garland. I

464
00:30:00,359 --> 00:30:03,640
just I don't know. I don't
like the overlap in the front call.

465
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,519
I'm just not a fan of having
Mobile Marketing and Allen all at once.

466
00:30:07,079 --> 00:30:10,880
I want to see Mobile play more
center. Maybe they're still able to carve

467
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,680
out ample time for Mobile at center. It's not like they have a bunch

468
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,160
of true centers behind Jared Allen,
so that it is possible. I'm still

469
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:22,039
not crazy about that little cluster between
him marketing in and Allen, and they're

470
00:30:22,079 --> 00:30:25,079
still they're just young, and when
you look at how deep the middle class

471
00:30:25,079 --> 00:30:27,759
of the Eastern Conference is there are
two teams that I would say with confidence

472
00:30:27,839 --> 00:30:32,519
I think Cleveland will be better than
Detroit and Orlando. And that's still just

473
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,279
it. Like, I don't what
is the other team that Cleveland is supposed

474
00:30:34,279 --> 00:30:37,119
to be better then in this conference? I don't have one, so I

475
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:41,599
went I went with the undernoing that
it sort of represents like a lateral move

476
00:30:41,599 --> 00:30:45,480
from where their win total was last
year. But I don't think drafting Evan

477
00:30:45,559 --> 00:30:49,720
Mobley having Ricky Rubio is enough to
sort of nudge you up like a few

478
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,839
wins. It just feels like this
team is still there needs to be another

479
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,039
move here. I don't even want
to call a consolidation trade, like maybe

480
00:30:57,079 --> 00:31:02,359
an addition of a serious player or
just something they still feel one player away

481
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:07,039
from being more than this bottom three, bottom four Eastern Conference team. I

482
00:31:07,119 --> 00:31:11,440
also went the under here. I
had them at twenty five wins. I

483
00:31:11,559 --> 00:31:15,359
love so many individual pieces on this
roster. I think Darius Garland makes an

484
00:31:15,359 --> 00:31:18,960
All Star team at some point in
his career. Colin Sexton is a super

485
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:25,240
fun and aggressive attacker. Isaac Accorro
is already just a defensive standout. Evan

486
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,079
Mobley. I thought the opposite of
you during the draft, where I thought

487
00:31:27,079 --> 00:31:32,519
he was absolutely worth one of the
top picks and such a talented player that

488
00:31:32,759 --> 00:31:36,839
he was worth taking even if the
fit was an ideal. Jared Allen brings

489
00:31:36,839 --> 00:31:41,119
a lot of energy as a lob
threat, as a developing offensive player,

490
00:31:41,119 --> 00:31:45,440
and a super aggressive defender who is
not scared to challenge anything around the basket.

491
00:31:45,799 --> 00:31:51,880
But this roster makes no fucking sense. It just it is a mess.

492
00:31:52,039 --> 00:31:56,640
I have no idea how they're gonna
work. Laurie market In who You'll

493
00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,720
note that I did not mention in
the players I love into this rotation without

494
00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:07,720
just jumbling up everything to the point
of not being able to recognize a functional

495
00:32:07,759 --> 00:32:10,480
offense. I also don't think Colin
Sexton finishes the season in Cleveland, which

496
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:15,039
I'm factoring in here because there are
already rumors of that discontent and a potential

497
00:32:15,079 --> 00:32:19,960
trade last season, and we've heard
some things this offseason. I don't know

498
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:24,000
how much validity to give those anonymous
scout articles on Sports Illustrated that they like

499
00:32:24,079 --> 00:32:28,240
to publish every year that are super
fun and entertaining reads. But I just

500
00:32:28,359 --> 00:32:31,160
I don't know how accurate they are, but there are some pretty scathing reviews

501
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:37,000
of his fit and the chemistry that
he brings. Again about Sexton, and

502
00:32:37,039 --> 00:32:40,480
I don't think he's going to finish
the year there because this team has so

503
00:32:40,599 --> 00:32:47,079
much talent and it still feels utterly
directionless. And if you're unloading Colin Sexton,

504
00:32:47,319 --> 00:32:51,839
what are you doing with that?
Are you restarting the rebuild to some

505
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,119
extent, are you trying to get
a different, developing, young talent that

506
00:32:55,519 --> 00:32:59,240
fits better. But at the same
time, like, what would you do

507
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:05,720
because you'd probably just want another shooting
guard this it's I'm baffled by this team

508
00:33:05,759 --> 00:33:07,720
and I like it a lot,
and I'm still just baffled by it.

509
00:33:08,359 --> 00:33:10,799
I like a lot of the individual
players. I just don't know if there

510
00:33:10,799 --> 00:33:15,200
are enough connectors here. I will
say with Colin Sexton, my expectation would

511
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,160
be that he actually signs an extension
and we'll finish the season in Cleveland because

512
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:21,440
it becomes basically impossible to move him. If he does not, that doesn't

513
00:33:21,519 --> 00:33:23,119
change my prediction at all. But
yeah, if you're gonna get rid of

514
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:27,960
Colin Sexton, I doubt you're getting
like a player that's going to elevate you

515
00:33:28,039 --> 00:33:29,920
that you so, if you really
believe he's gonna get traded, you might

516
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:34,400
as well smash that that under.
Yep, that brings us to the Dallas

517
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,640
Mavericks. Their win total was set
at forty eight and a half. I

518
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,880
thought this was an easy under.
I had them at forty four wins.

519
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,640
I had them add him over reluctantly. I'm just I'm interested that we disagree.

520
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,240
Please carry on. Yeah, awesome. No, I'm glad that we

521
00:33:50,279 --> 00:33:54,839
had such a big discrepancy. And
this is purely just my complete and utter

522
00:33:54,880 --> 00:34:00,000
lack of confidence in Jason Kidd.
He has made every team that he's touched

523
00:34:00,039 --> 00:34:07,480
significantly worse. He's impeded the development
of young players, he has abused players

524
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:15,199
mentally, as as we've seen detailed
in a certain book. His presence is

525
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:22,079
just going to be toxic for this
team. Luka doncicch amazing going to factor

526
00:34:22,119 --> 00:34:27,119
into the MVP conversation without a doubt. Kris stops Porzingis is probably going to

527
00:34:27,119 --> 00:34:30,280
get featured a little bit more in
this kid offense, I would, I

528
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,960
would say, but beyond that,
like, where are you turning for this

529
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:39,079
team to be one of the true
benchmarks in the Western Conference because Dorian Finney

530
00:34:39,079 --> 00:34:45,239
Smith, Tim Hardaway Junior, Jalen
Brunson, they're fun, good pieces,

531
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:51,119
Maxi Kleiba, but they're not gonna
be stars. And I just I don't

532
00:34:51,199 --> 00:34:54,000
see that third player really even that
second player, because I just I still

533
00:34:54,039 --> 00:34:58,880
don't know what we're supposed to expect
from Chris Stops at this point in his

534
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:06,000
career that's going to lift this team
on a nightly basis. Yeah, look,

535
00:35:06,119 --> 00:35:08,079
Jason kidd I, this would have
been a very easy over for me

536
00:35:08,119 --> 00:35:10,840
because I think the model that they
have set up when you look at the

537
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:15,039
roster is Luca don Chi plus shooting. Now all the shooting, the addition

538
00:35:15,079 --> 00:35:19,599
of Marksman and Frank Nilikina who shot
the lights out from three of the past

539
00:35:19,679 --> 00:35:22,440
season and a half. But really
Sterling Brown, Reggie Bullock, resigning,

540
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,840
Tim Hardaway Junior. You still have
Doran Finnie Smith there. Max and Kleibus

541
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,960
should be healthier this year. I
think he also was dealing with COVID and

542
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,960
addition to injuries last season as well. Christoph should be better, and he

543
00:35:32,079 --> 00:35:36,480
shot threes relatively well last year.
He should better defendsily. That's a regular

544
00:35:36,519 --> 00:35:39,519
season team that can run rough shod
over the rest of the league. I

545
00:35:39,559 --> 00:35:45,800
just don't trust Jason kidds was that
I said, if your coach lets you

546
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:49,519
play that way, Well, that's
the point is that I don't trust Jason

547
00:35:49,559 --> 00:35:53,760
Kidd at all. Mike. I'm
just I'm hoping against hope that his comment

548
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:59,440
about not taking as many threes and
that the preseason data is wrong on that.

549
00:35:59,559 --> 00:36:01,280
And the other thing is I don't
need to see christops Porzingki's drilling into

550
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,079
mid range jumpers. Yes, it
would help if he can post up,

551
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,880
and he was likely he was more
efficient in that area last year. That

552
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:12,440
being said that, it just it
can't be a crutch. I am still

553
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,480
worried about the non Luca minutes.
I think they're worried about it too,

554
00:36:15,519 --> 00:36:19,480
which is why they probably waived tyrol
Tary instead of the unvaccinated Trey Burke at

555
00:36:19,519 --> 00:36:21,880
this point. And Burke did have
a he has another season left on his

556
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,559
deal. Self actor can't do it
as well. I think Jen Brunson is

557
00:36:23,599 --> 00:36:28,280
a player who really helps you in
the regular season at least navigate some of

558
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,360
those minutes. Perhaps that's when you
let Chris stops Porzingki's cook too. Is

559
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:34,760
when Dontres Is off the floor.
This just feels like a fifty win team.

560
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,559
Luca Dontres plus shooting, to me
is a fifty win team. And

561
00:36:37,559 --> 00:36:39,039
I think we also have to look
at like the fight that they have put

562
00:36:39,119 --> 00:36:43,199
up with. Yeah, Chris stops
Porzingkis was good in the bubble, Christops

563
00:36:43,199 --> 00:36:46,400
Porzingkis was not good during these playoffs
and like they were fighting with the Clippers

564
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:51,079
like they were just they gave him
a like they gave them a series.

565
00:36:51,199 --> 00:36:52,679
And so I'm just you apply that
to the rest of the season. As

566
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:57,280
long as lucas healthy, I think
they get to at least forty nine wins

567
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,559
here. And so it's a reluctant
over. I don't the Jason Kidd factor

568
00:37:00,679 --> 00:37:05,719
is. I came very close to
going under for them. It's really the

569
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:10,440
only reason because the roster. It
makes sense for a different coach and I

570
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,599
for me, it was just as
simple as that if Rick Carlile was still

571
00:37:14,639 --> 00:37:17,480
there, one of the easiest overs
on this, Yes, absolutely, but

572
00:37:17,679 --> 00:37:23,920
the line would have been higher too. The Nuggets for Nuggets set at forty

573
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:29,719
seven and a half, and this
is one for you. First, My

574
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:34,000
expectation is that Jamal Murray will not
play towards the end of the season,

575
00:37:34,039 --> 00:37:36,760
if at all this year. I
mean he injured his a cl in April.

576
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:42,039
Ten to twelve months is like that's
almost April again. Whether he plays

577
00:37:42,159 --> 00:37:44,599
or not, I'm going to take
the over a year. I think Michael

578
00:37:44,599 --> 00:37:47,000
Porter Jr. The antivactor that he
is, even though he says that he's

579
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:52,119
not an anti vactor, which you've
got to let people stop saying, Matt

580
00:37:52,159 --> 00:37:55,119
don't let antivactors claim that they're anyway. Moving on. I he's good.

581
00:37:55,559 --> 00:37:59,800
I also am a big believer in
the depth of this roster. Without Jamal

582
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:05,559
mur Porter Junior should still give him
add some extra on ball creation, even

583
00:38:05,559 --> 00:38:07,559
though that's not necessarily his game.
I don't think they're gonna try and put

584
00:38:07,599 --> 00:38:10,800
Aaron Gordon on the ball as much
as they did during the playoffs last year.

585
00:38:12,079 --> 00:38:16,280
His offensive fit feels more seamless,
Love Monte Morris, love Will Barton.

586
00:38:16,639 --> 00:38:19,880
If they're healthy, they're starting lineup
is going to be really good,

587
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,559
and they have just a lot of
quality guys on the bench, Jeff Green

588
00:38:22,559 --> 00:38:25,199
and Jamichael Green. They are just
very interesting front courts that they can run.

589
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:29,840
When Nikole yokis is on the bench, and I'm really calling it now.

590
00:38:30,199 --> 00:38:31,639
I don't know if Michael Malone is
going to feel the same way.

591
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:37,639
Bill and Thailand makes an impact on
this team a positive one because Jamal Murray's

592
00:38:37,639 --> 00:38:40,599
absent. What he showed in the
preseason. Just as like this contortionist when

593
00:38:40,639 --> 00:38:45,280
he's finishing the three pointer is real. As Adamata has pointed out when we

594
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,920
did the Nuggets Pott, He's been
a surprisingly good pastor. That's not something

595
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:52,119
that was talked about with him coming
out of college. I think this team

596
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,559
I'm a little bit concerned about.
Maybe Nicole Yokes wearing down has not missed

597
00:38:54,599 --> 00:38:59,320
a ton of time throughout his career, played in every single game last season

598
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,880
after making like a mid end playoff
run the season before, not having the

599
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:07,519
longest offseason. That concerns me a
little bit. But he doesn't, you

600
00:39:07,559 --> 00:39:10,639
know, play a style that I
think is especially grueling on his body.

601
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:15,400
He dictates the term that's not even
a He was in great shape last year,

602
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,119
so I'm not really I'm not shitting
on him, Dick. He mandates

603
00:39:17,159 --> 00:39:22,039
the pace isn't my point, and
so I think that benefits will benefit him.

604
00:39:22,079 --> 00:39:24,000
This is tough, but I'm gonna
go over, and I think that

605
00:39:24,039 --> 00:39:28,599
says a lot about this team because
Jamal Murray probably plays in what twenty one

606
00:39:28,679 --> 00:39:34,480
games tops this year. Yeah yeah, I mean even without Murray, this

607
00:39:34,519 --> 00:39:38,639
team is just so good and has
so much usable depth. And that's why

608
00:39:38,679 --> 00:39:43,760
I went with the under. I
have them at forty six wins because I

609
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,719
think they know they're that good and
this is the season where they can get

610
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:52,360
away with kind of taking it easier
during the regular season and using it as

611
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:58,159
that ramp up period for another deep
postseason run when Murray is back and worked

612
00:39:58,199 --> 00:40:04,559
into the rotation. We've heard Yokich
already say that he has started to recognize

613
00:40:04,559 --> 00:40:07,119
that he should listen to the staff
when they ask him to take a rest

614
00:40:07,199 --> 00:40:14,599
day because he needs to preserve himself. This team understands that it is one

615
00:40:14,679 --> 00:40:20,000
hundred percent a top team, a
top tier team within the Western Conference hierarchy

616
00:40:20,159 --> 00:40:23,079
at the end of the season,
and it's going to act accordingly. It

617
00:40:23,159 --> 00:40:28,760
doesn't have anything to play for this
year during the regular season because it has

618
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:32,159
reached that point in the building towards
a title process. So I mean that

619
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:37,440
forty six win prediction as nothing but
a compliment even if it is technically an

620
00:40:37,519 --> 00:40:45,400
under. Yeah, it's it's easy
to justify either one. I think I

621
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:50,039
just I don't want this to be
like you know, I picked the under.

622
00:40:50,039 --> 00:40:52,679
Therefore I hate the Nuggets because it's
the exact opposite. All right,

623
00:40:52,679 --> 00:40:55,239
Adam hates the Nuggets. Let's move
on to the Pisically, let's move on

624
00:40:55,320 --> 00:41:00,360
to the Pistons. Detroit Pistons set
at twenty five and a half wins.

625
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:06,000
This was a difficult one for me, and I ultimately went over with twenty

626
00:41:06,079 --> 00:41:12,159
seven. I do think that kid
cunning him makes an immediate impact. Sadiq

627
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,679
Bay is just awesome. When he's
fully healthy, he gets back to being

628
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:21,239
that high upside kind of three and
D guy. I believe that Isaiah Stewart's

629
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,079
game is scalable, even as high
energy as it is, so I think

630
00:41:24,079 --> 00:41:29,719
he continues to play a bigger role
and then all of that makes life a

631
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:34,559
lot easier on Jeremy Grant and Killian
Hayes doesn't have to go through quite as

632
00:41:34,599 --> 00:41:38,440
many speed bumps as a typical pseudo
rookie point guard because he barely played last

633
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:43,519
year would be in terms of making
turnovers, taking poor shots, because there

634
00:41:43,639 --> 00:41:47,519
is enough supporting talent on this team. It's still super young. It's gonna

635
00:41:47,519 --> 00:41:51,719
make a lot of mistakes, it's
gonna lose a lot of close games.

636
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,400
But this is going to be one
of those ficier teams that takes advantage of

637
00:41:54,400 --> 00:42:00,679
the teams that overlook it on the
schedule. Yeah, they're just I went

638
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:05,199
under and not that I didn't think
about it. I just kay Cunningham's a

639
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,079
rookie. We haven't seen enough of
Killy and Hayes. If he stays healthy,

640
00:42:08,119 --> 00:42:10,320
what is he going to look like? We saw Jeremy Grant kind of

641
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:14,079
wear down towards the end of last
season, and they did shut him down

642
00:42:14,079 --> 00:42:16,039
at points. To his credit,
I think Isaiah Stewart. They have a

643
00:42:16,039 --> 00:42:21,880
lot of great big picture pieces on
this team. I just I don't know.

644
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,559
The Kelly O Lienic addition was interesting, and they did look This team

645
00:42:24,559 --> 00:42:28,119
was top ten and crunch time minutes
before the All Star break last year.

646
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:30,599
I just think if they get to
a point where they're there again, I

647
00:42:30,639 --> 00:42:34,519
could see them still steering. I
don't want to call it into a full

648
00:42:34,559 --> 00:42:37,199
on tank, but they're still in
talent acquisition mode. I don't think that

649
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:40,280
they're going to sell off Jeremy Grant
at some point during the year. I

650
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:45,239
just don't think they're talented enough.
And when you look at legitimately, you

651
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,840
aside any team other than Detroit and
Orlando you can talk to me into making

652
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:52,719
the playoffs this year. And so
like those victories amongst the you know,

653
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:57,000
let's say six through thirteen seeds in
the East, gotta come from somewhere.

654
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,519
And I don't think the choice is
gonna catch anybody off guard this year.

655
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,280
And I think that there's a lot
of self discovery they have to go through

656
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:07,639
that's procedural and that has to be
done. It's even if Kay Cunningham is

657
00:43:07,639 --> 00:43:09,800
really good right away, there's just
going to come. The learning curves are

658
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:14,599
going to come elsewhere. And so
I think that they might get twenty five

659
00:43:14,639 --> 00:43:16,400
wins. It'd be hard for me
to believe that they're they're over twenty five,

660
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:21,519
though, yeah it's and I don't
feel like twenty seven is too far

661
00:43:21,599 --> 00:43:25,320
off from twenty five once we're down
in those lower portions of the standings anyway,

662
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:30,199
because the difference for me is just
I think that the baseline for this

663
00:43:30,239 --> 00:43:36,599
team is high enough that it's competitive
every single night. And there are enough

664
00:43:36,639 --> 00:43:42,239
pieces that can just win a game
single handedly any given night because they're showing

665
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,840
off that potential and the reason they
have that kind of pedigree, Like Cunningham's

666
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,360
gonna win a game by himself at
some point this season. Jeremy Grant probably

667
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,840
is too. I could see Isaiah
Stewart just taking over a game on defense

668
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:54,679
and a fourth quarter. There are
enough of those where I think that the

669
00:43:54,719 --> 00:44:00,559
wins could add up because we're talking
about a two win difference, where margin

670
00:44:00,119 --> 00:44:04,440
in terms of relative to the number
of wins they already have, that's a

671
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:09,239
bigger difference, so it just feels
bigger. It could totally swing either way.

672
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:14,239
It just wouldn't surprise me if their
record ends up being worse than it

673
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:17,079
was when you look at their winning
percentage last year. And that's that's fine

674
00:44:17,239 --> 00:44:22,840
with me. That brings us to
you. The Golden State Warriors. Their

675
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:27,079
projection is set at forty seven and
a half, and this one's on you.

676
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,760
I went under and I didn't think
too hard about this one. Maybe

677
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:32,360
Jordan Pool was playing well enough in
the preseason where people think that they're going

678
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:36,320
to be a fringe fifty win team. Claytown's is not supposed to come back

679
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,239
until January. We don't know how
many minutes he's gonna play once he does

680
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:42,960
come back, what he looks like
when he comes back. I think we've

681
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:47,800
seen. Look Draymond Green and Stephen
Curry when they played without James Wiseman last

682
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:52,440
year. They annihilated opponents and they
really looked like they unlocked something. It

683
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:58,159
seems like they're playing a good brand
of basketball during the preseason. My guests

684
00:44:58,199 --> 00:45:00,360
would be that they don't try and
develop Jonathan main Gun Moses Moody heavily.

685
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:05,079
They're gonna play the Otto Porter Juniors, the Damien Lees instead that wants to

686
00:45:05,119 --> 00:45:07,679
scone Anderson's and that will help their
rotation. They're still gonna end up playing

687
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,639
James Wiseman when he comes back,
I think, and that's gonna harsh their

688
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:14,800
vibe a little bit. I don't
even if you believe that Jordan Pool is

689
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,480
ready to carry lineups on his own, they just don't have shot creation.

690
00:45:16,519 --> 00:45:23,440
Aside from those two, they are
a Stephen Curry rolled ankle away from absolute

691
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:29,800
disaster on this team. Still,
when you're that reliant upon one player and

692
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,880
he is so far past thirty like
he is and I look, Stephen Curry's

693
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,800
the top five player in the game. It's just this team was not great,

694
00:45:37,199 --> 00:45:39,679
but their office was terrible. They
were they were in the bottom twelve

695
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:45,840
of offensive efficiency last year with Stephen
Curry going bonkers all season long. I

696
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:47,960
just find it hard to believe that
they're going to be I think they're gonna

697
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:52,239
be. You know, well,
I think they're gonna be a playoff team,

698
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,599
But you're gonna tell me that they're
gonna come close to winning fifty games.

699
00:45:54,639 --> 00:45:59,119
Everything has to go right for them, in my opinion, for that

700
00:45:59,159 --> 00:46:00,559
to happen, and I just don't
think that you can count on that.

701
00:46:01,639 --> 00:46:05,599
I'm right there with you. I
had this at forty two wins, so

702
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,679
a pretty substantial under a five and
a half game difference. And yet that

703
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:13,840
difference is not as significant as the
one that some statistical models are giving it.

704
00:46:14,159 --> 00:46:17,239
For example, five thirty eight team
projections, which I do think have

705
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:22,320
some flaws because they're so heavily based
on like the on off stuff, still

706
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:28,079
has the Warriors winning thirty six games, and that's hard at like thirty seven

707
00:46:28,159 --> 00:46:31,079
or thirty nine or something too.
So it's not even it's not just that

708
00:46:31,159 --> 00:46:37,719
one yeah, So it's one of
those where, yeah, Steph is amazing,

709
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:39,960
He's gonna carry them. But as
you said, if he gets hurt,

710
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:45,239
even the most minor of maladies for
a minimal period of time, that's

711
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:50,280
a disaster, and it's just then
afford that disaster. Let's say they lose

712
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,880
Steph and Curry for two weeks.
If there's and I'm not saying they will,

713
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:59,599
that's I don't want to happen.
That's what Let's say seven eight games

714
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,440
if they're playing, if they have
to play seven games without Stephen Curry this

715
00:47:02,519 --> 00:47:07,719
year, are they going one?
Are they going three and four? No,

716
00:47:07,079 --> 00:47:12,480
they're going two and five or one
and six. And beyond that,

717
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,760
if this team sneaks into the playoffs, you will not want to play it

718
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,559
because Clay will be back right and
they might not sneak in. They might

719
00:47:21,559 --> 00:47:25,800
just be the sixth seed. But
and I think that means teams know that.

720
00:47:27,159 --> 00:47:30,280
And I think you're gonna see the
Warriors getting a lot of teams best

721
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:35,199
shot and teams already always get it
up for playing Steph Curry. So I

722
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,000
think that's going to matter in the
beginning of the season two. This is

723
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,920
one of those that feels like it
could be slow out of the gates.

724
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:44,440
And look, and by the way, I don't think that they can necessarily

725
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,079
afford for that to happen, just
to be slow out of the gates.

726
00:47:47,119 --> 00:47:51,119
I would say, like, you
want to win out of the gate.

727
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:53,320
So maybe we see more Draymond Green
at the five. We know he's not

728
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:58,840
going to start games they are,
But yeah, it's this was relatively easy

729
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:00,880
hunger for me, which makes me
think that they're probably just gonna obliterate it.

730
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:05,239
But but we shall say, yeah, probably and Steph could do it.

731
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:07,239
But it's also hard to carry that
kind of load for consecutive seasons,

732
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:10,800
right, And it's that's all takes, by the way, and just it's

733
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,920
just like, what if Clay isn't
good? I think I think his offense

734
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:16,079
is going to be fine for the
most part. Per's like, what if

735
00:48:16,079 --> 00:48:19,760
it takes him. He hasn't played
basketball in over two years, right,

736
00:48:21,119 --> 00:48:22,440
it could be a long ramp up
period. So yeah, I mean,

737
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,800
there's it was it would be really
hard to sell me on taking me over

738
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:30,599
there. And I still think this
is a deadly playoff team if it makes

739
00:48:30,599 --> 00:48:34,000
it one. They are a team
that's built to they could be the ten

740
00:48:34,079 --> 00:48:37,599
seed, and they could. I
wouldn't if I'm the one seed in the

741
00:48:37,639 --> 00:48:38,239
West. I don't want to have
to face him in the first round.

742
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:42,199
They make it out of the play
in whatever, So I'm with you there.

743
00:48:42,639 --> 00:48:46,199
This next one was not as hard
as Golden States, though Houston Rockets

744
00:48:46,199 --> 00:48:51,360
set at twenty five and a half. I was comfortably over. I had

745
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:57,280
them at twenty nine wins. It
might just be because I'm ridiculously high on

746
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,559
Kevin Porter Jr. Who I recently
wrote about on NBA Math and the first

747
00:49:00,639 --> 00:49:05,039
article I've written in literal years,
So check that out if you want.

748
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:08,960
Yeah, Kevin Porter Jr. I
think that the dual threat offense he brings

749
00:49:09,519 --> 00:49:16,559
just as a high upside score who
has shown more and more passing vision just

750
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:22,079
each and every year. And this
team trusts him as that point guard because

751
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:27,800
John wall is not going to play, and that is probably a good thing

752
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:31,639
for this team because he's going to
make mistakes learning on the job. But

753
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:36,920
there is a good amount of complimentary
talent on this team, especially if Jalen

754
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,239
Green can make an immediate impact,
if Aaron if Eric Gordon can get healthy,

755
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:45,760
really like Jayshon Tate. Christian Wood
is a fantastic pick and roll or

756
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:51,920
pick and pop option to play alongside
Porter. Daniel Tice is a good addition.

757
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:53,760
I really like Shan Goon, who
if he gets minutes, I think

758
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:59,920
he makes an impact within those minutes. I think this team is sneaky good.

759
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:02,440
Yeah, no, they're gonna be
bad. I have him at the

760
00:50:02,519 --> 00:50:07,159
under. They are young. They
drafted four rookies. At least two of

761
00:50:07,199 --> 00:50:08,639
them are gonna play. I know
Shan Gun looks great in the preseason.

762
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,840
John Green should be fine too.
Kevin Porter, j you are still new

763
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,960
to this point guard role. I'm
very curious to see how he does when

764
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:17,280
the scouting report is probably more out
on him, and I think he looked

765
00:50:17,519 --> 00:50:21,800
he played the point guard role.
Well, who's point guard after him?

766
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,360
They've sent John Wallholme. Now you're
looking at DJ Augustine like, okay,

767
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:30,719
not ideal. I do. Green's
also heavily an isolation player, so I

768
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:34,119
do think that you see a lot
of him operating as a de facto one

769
00:50:34,199 --> 00:50:37,559
in lineups without Porter. I just
don't how's that work out for him at

770
00:50:37,559 --> 00:50:39,800
the NBA. I look, he's
one of the best shot makers. I

771
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:43,280
want to see what he looks like
as a playmaker in the NBA. There

772
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,760
After those two then though there's nobody
Eric Gordon is gonna be traded or shut

773
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:51,760
down at some point for this team, Daniel Tye, I wouldn't be surprised

774
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,039
if he got moved. It wouldn't
surprise me Chritian Wood got moved. There

775
00:50:54,039 --> 00:51:00,639
are so many just fleeting or transient
pieces on this raw plus youngsters where if

776
00:51:00,639 --> 00:51:04,880
they decide to play Josh Christopher or
Usman Gruba, and I really do hope

777
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,079
that they play Usman Gruba. Like, this team isn't built to be good.

778
00:51:07,119 --> 00:51:10,599
They have their own draft pick for
the next two years. If there's

779
00:51:10,639 --> 00:51:14,800
going to be a tanker, they're
going to be among them, aside from

780
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,719
Oklama City, because we know Oklahoma
City is tanking their asses off right now.

781
00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:21,639
I'm just you know, they are
fun and they have talent, but

782
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:25,840
that talent by and large is just
so inexperienced, so new, so raw.

783
00:51:27,119 --> 00:51:30,199
Unless you tell me that they are
going to play Daniel House a bunch

784
00:51:30,199 --> 00:51:31,760
of minutes in crunch time for his
defense, that Eric Gordon's going to stay

785
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:36,880
healthy and play a bunch of minutes, that they play more Christian Wood at

786
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,440
the five than going with dual Biggs
with him and Tice, there are too

787
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:43,639
many question marks here for me to
think that they're going to win twenty six

788
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,599
games in a Western Conference where there's
very clearly two teams that are much,

789
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:53,400
much, much worse than everybody else. I think this might be a good

790
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:58,880
one to put our side wagger on
because I just I feel strongly on this

791
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,760
one. It might just be that
I'm that high on Porter and think that

792
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:07,320
he is immediately on the fringes of
the All Star conversation even in this first

793
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:10,199
season, as as the troue point
guard. Okay, so if I win

794
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:15,559
this bet, you have to get
shout out Frank Nilikina tattooed somewhere on your

795
00:52:15,559 --> 00:52:20,679
body. That is such high stakes. I can't agree to that one.

796
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,880
Come on, I'll agree to that
one, man or person. I can't

797
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:30,079
agree to that one. Come on. Toxic masculinity right here, right now.

798
00:52:30,599 --> 00:52:34,480
It took me like a year and
a half of sitting with an idea

799
00:52:34,559 --> 00:52:37,320
for a tattoo to actually go through
with that. You can who is if

800
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:39,559
you put you can put it somewhere
where no one's ever going to see it

801
00:52:39,719 --> 00:52:46,400
aside from LEXI, Yeah, I
can't get behind that one. I'm sorry.

802
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,679
The stakes are already too low for
my liking. Let's let's move on.

803
00:52:52,119 --> 00:52:59,039
Moving on an awkward segue from the
Cleveland Cavalier are from the Houston Rockets.

804
00:52:59,039 --> 00:53:02,400
I'm all flustered. Now to the
Indiana Pacers at forty two and a

805
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:07,239
half wins and you are leading this
one off. Thank goodness, because this

806
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:12,960
is a confusing team. This is
show show so tough. They have injuries

807
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:15,880
to Charaslaft Malcolm Brockden right now,
we don't have a timeline for t J.

808
00:53:15,039 --> 00:53:19,199
Warren returning. They do have a
new head coach in Rick Carlisle,

809
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:22,559
who's run Caitlyn Cooper's wrote about this
in Indie corn Rows, where there's offensive

810
00:53:22,559 --> 00:53:27,119
stuff that looks intriguing that's worked,
but also are they underutilizing the mantis A

811
00:53:27,159 --> 00:53:30,320
bonus somehow, I'm gonna take the
over because I ultimately like Rick Carlisle as

812
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:35,360
a coach. I respect this team's
depth. You can people can be labor

813
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:37,360
the fit between Turner and Sabonus all
they want, whether they have to pick

814
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,280
one, how are they closing games? YadA, YadA, YadA, they

815
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:45,400
could trade Turner, they could keep
Turner. I still think as long as

816
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:50,760
you're telling me that caras Lavert and
TJ. Warren are available, if neither

817
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:53,679
of them misses more than thirty two
games this season, I'm gonna I'm still

818
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:58,159
gonna take the over, maybe twenty
five. It's a risk. It's just

819
00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:01,079
they have They're among the teams where
I think if you look at their roster

820
00:54:01,639 --> 00:54:06,360
they're going to be among the leaders
and just good NBA players, having TJ.

821
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:08,800
McConnell, even Jeremy Land, just
because like Jeremy Land is someone who

822
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:14,159
helps you bridge the gap of Caros
Lavert being out. He's not the same

823
00:54:14,199 --> 00:54:16,519
passer as Caros Lavert. He's not
even the same shotmaker because carros Lavert can

824
00:54:16,599 --> 00:54:20,599
hit those off the dribble threes,
but like he can get to his spots.

825
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:22,239
Maybe Christa Arte is good as a
rookie, which is not out of

826
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:25,440
the realm of possibility because he is, you know, like forty years old

827
00:54:25,559 --> 00:54:29,480
coming into the league. Just a
little bit more seasons. Justin Holliday one

828
00:54:29,519 --> 00:54:30,920
of the best connectors in the league. I like the Tory Craig pick up.

829
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,840
If he's gonna hit his threes,
set threes like he did in Phoenix,

830
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:37,239
he becomes a much more valuable player. I think they can run some

831
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:40,960
interesting defensive looks off the bench.
Maybe they're not in on Isaiah Jackson as

832
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:45,280
a rookie. It kind of seems
like go go Paz, go go Patz

833
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:49,159
is an afterthought here. But like
you can play you know, O shaper

834
00:54:49,199 --> 00:54:51,440
set up like, and that's someone
who's just gonna give you a lot of

835
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:54,320
switchability on the defensive end. I
think they've given Rick Carlisle. Maybe not

836
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:59,360
enough tools, maybe imperfect tools,
maybe not the best fitting tools, but

837
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:02,239
there are a lot of tools here, and I think that translates to a

838
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:06,840
team that essentially is better than five
hundred and So it's are they gonna win

839
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,519
forty two or forty three? If
you're right around there, I'm gonna roll

840
00:55:08,559 --> 00:55:13,079
the dice and say forty three.
But I will say Brogden's injury history,

841
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:15,559
carousel Vert's injury history, and whatever's
going on with t. J. Warren

842
00:55:15,599 --> 00:55:22,079
that does make me awfully nervous.
Yeah, I don't have much to add

843
00:55:22,119 --> 00:55:24,960
here because I had them at forty
five wins for basically the exact same reasons

844
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:30,079
for me, The biggest thing is
Rick Carlisle because he is an elite head

845
00:55:30,119 --> 00:55:35,960
coach, specifically when it comes to
making basically anyone into a useful piece.

846
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:37,519
He's one of the few coaches that
I feel like, if you and I

847
00:55:37,559 --> 00:55:39,440
were just like, yeah, we
had to play in the NBA now,

848
00:55:39,679 --> 00:55:44,199
he could probably find like some way
to make us look like we at least

849
00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:49,719
like kind of belonged sort of,
And that's a pretty big compliment because we

850
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,239
don't belong. If it's any consolation, and I blacked out what our guests

851
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:55,000
did for their teams while I was
doing this to make sure that there was

852
00:55:55,039 --> 00:55:59,679
an overlap. The win total has
not changed since Caitlyn Cooper and I did

853
00:55:59,679 --> 00:56:02,199
it for them and she took the
over. That's consolation. That makes me

854
00:56:02,199 --> 00:56:07,960
feel so much better. I'm don't
ask the over because Kaitlyn Cooper picked the

855
00:56:07,039 --> 00:56:10,360
over one of just the smartest,
not even Pacers people, just basketball people

856
00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:14,840
alive. So if you want to
learn something from an article every time or

857
00:56:14,960 --> 00:56:20,480
podcasts or Twitter podcasts or Twitter,
ye, but yeah, I mean this.

858
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:23,480
It felt like an easy over for
me. And there are a lot

859
00:56:23,519 --> 00:56:29,320
of questions about Indiana, but it
still felt like an easy over. The

860
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,239
next team did not, because that's
the Los Angeles Clippers. They're set at

861
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:37,920
forty five and a half and I
had them at forty two, and they

862
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:42,920
just I never even considered going over
with this team like this was one of

863
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:45,719
the easiest ones for me because Kawhi
Leonard's not going to play. He's not

864
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:50,559
going to play this season, which
makes it even more hilarious. And I

865
00:56:50,559 --> 00:56:53,719
have not told you this story,
but in that in that multi sport fantasy

866
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:59,400
league, we had our basketball draft
last week, and the premise of this

867
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:04,159
league is that you get a thousand
dollars to spend between your NHL, NFL,

868
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,000
MLB, and NBA rosters. It's
it's thoroughly ridiculous and super fun and

869
00:57:08,079 --> 00:57:15,159
takes up way too much of my
time. But our June, our technical

870
00:57:15,159 --> 00:57:21,159
director, completely forgot that Kawhi was
hurt and spent fifty four dollars to draft

871
00:57:21,239 --> 00:57:24,440
him, which was I think like
the sixth most expensive player in the draft.

872
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:30,639
So that I have to share that
with you because it's just it's amazing

873
00:57:30,719 --> 00:57:35,320
and I got a huge kick out
of it. But anyway, Kawhi Leonard

874
00:57:35,639 --> 00:57:38,840
won't be playing, and I don't
trust Paul George to carry this team to

875
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:45,239
fifty wins, especially because I don't
trust Eric Bledsoe or Reggie Jackson. In

876
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:49,480
spite of how good Reggie Jackson looked
in the playoffs last year. Luke Kennard

877
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:54,719
sure, Terrence Man looks great.
Nicholas Toomb was resurgent of each Azubach.

878
00:57:55,119 --> 00:57:59,760
When he gets minutes, he can
be effective. But I just don't see

879
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:02,159
it. I do not see a
path to being a top end team in

880
00:58:02,159 --> 00:58:07,800
the West. I'm mostly with you. They were plus one point eight points

881
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:12,199
per one hundred possessions when Paul George
played without Kauai last year. Now you

882
00:58:12,199 --> 00:58:15,280
have to extrapolate that again, it's
probably more starting units that's tougher. This

883
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:20,400
team during those minutes was also very
reliant upon their defense. They're gonna have

884
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,079
to be even more reliant on there. Now you've lost your best shot creator.

885
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:28,159
You haven't necessarily replaced him with any
high end table center bletso maybe he

886
00:58:28,199 --> 00:58:30,960
picks up on defense. Again,
he doesn't really elevate your offense. I

887
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,719
do believe in Reggie Jackson, but
what are the odds that you get a

888
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:37,199
repeat from Nickmatoon? Nickmatoo led you
in total minutes last year. Let's say

889
00:58:37,239 --> 00:58:42,000
even he plays as well, is
everyone on this team gonna shoot forty plus

890
00:58:42,039 --> 00:58:45,440
percent from three point range? Again, they got a lot of hot three

891
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:49,239
point shooting last year, so getting
shots is gonna be tougher. Are they

892
00:58:49,239 --> 00:58:52,159
gonna be as accurate from three?
They should still be in the play in

893
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:57,760
mix. I just don't. Forty
six wins is a lot for a team

894
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:00,599
that had quiet at all? Do
you respect? One of the most candid

895
00:59:00,599 --> 00:59:05,960
answers he gave or gave was him
saying he signed the three plus one deal

896
00:59:06,239 --> 00:59:08,440
so that he if he had if
he could come back, he would where

897
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:13,039
he wouldn't be thinking about his next
contract in his mind. So maybe there's

898
00:59:13,039 --> 00:59:15,480
a chance, but just I would
be shocked if he does come Also,

899
00:59:15,639 --> 00:59:22,320
not pretend Paul George is an injury
prone It feels like this is the healthiest

900
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:25,559
he's gone into a season in a
while, but he's gone through a lot

901
00:59:25,599 --> 00:59:30,840
of shoulder issues and those don't tend
to be isolated. And look, I

902
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,119
don't I'm not even worrying about a
Paul George injury. I just you run

903
00:59:34,159 --> 00:59:38,559
out of firepower very quickly without Kawai, because there what happens what okay,

904
00:59:38,559 --> 00:59:43,639
So here is like the biggest question
now is what is happening during the minutes

905
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:47,039
where he doesn't play, because now
you're not staggering Kawaient Paul George anymore.

906
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:52,519
It's Kawaient Paul George are both off
the court, which you get a lot

907
00:59:52,559 --> 00:59:57,039
of Reggie Jackson, a lot of
Reggie Jackson. You played about fifteen hundred

908
00:59:57,039 --> 01:00:00,400
possessions with both of them off the
court last season, so more then,

909
01:00:00,519 --> 01:00:06,280
like close to twenty percent of your
minutes you lost those minutes. The defense

910
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:08,239
was a disaster. The offense was
actually fine, which doesn't surprise me because

911
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,480
if you have Reggie Jackson, Marcus
Morris Zoobots is a good guy on offense

912
01:00:13,519 --> 01:00:16,239
to have, there's an offensive talent
here. But just like now, you

913
01:00:16,239 --> 01:00:20,920
have to extract like those minutes playing
without Kawaiet Paul George. Let's just say

914
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,800
that maybe that becomes half your minutes. It's just so tough. So they

915
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:28,039
might be if you told me they
were over five hundred, fine, but

916
01:00:28,079 --> 01:00:30,199
it feels like it'll be like a
forty two and forty situation. Not that's

917
01:00:30,239 --> 01:00:36,440
exactly what I said. Yeah,
yeah, did it feel to you like

918
01:00:36,639 --> 01:00:40,880
the two Los Angeles teams were the
two easiest unders because the Lakers are next,

919
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:45,760
and they were set a whopping fifty
two and a half, likely because

920
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:50,960
people love the Lakers and the betting
markets want to capitalize on that so they

921
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:58,599
can get away with a little bit
of an inflated over under. So yes,

922
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,639
can you guess where I went?
Yeah? Where did you go?

923
01:01:00,719 --> 01:01:06,039
And explain? Oh, this is
yours first? So I went over.

924
01:01:06,880 --> 01:01:09,199
I just wow, Okay, if
Lebron and Davis are on the court,

925
01:01:09,639 --> 01:01:13,840
the Lakers are going to be fine. And I actually they got a lot

926
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:19,760
of runway out of their minimum deals. I'm just on the mind that Russell

927
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:24,320
Westbrook probably lowers their postseason ceiling.
I think he elevates their regular season ceiling.

928
01:01:24,559 --> 01:01:29,039
The minutes he played without Bradley bal
last year in Washington were terrible.

929
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:31,840
I'd also argue, though, the
Lakers just need anybody to handle the ball

930
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:37,239
and run the offense when Lebron sits, and they were so bad in those

931
01:01:37,239 --> 01:01:39,960
minutes last year, I think Russ
ends up helping them there. If you

932
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:43,639
think that Lebron is going to be
on a maintenance program or miss time,

933
01:01:43,719 --> 01:01:45,159
or if you think that Anthony Davis
is gonna miss like twenty five games.

934
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:49,519
I get that people are worried about
the defense. They got rid of three

935
01:01:49,559 --> 01:01:52,159
of their top five defenders. You
Lebron and a D two of their five

936
01:01:52,159 --> 01:01:54,760
best defenders last year. I think
Kuzma, KCP and Alex Caruso were the

937
01:01:54,760 --> 01:01:59,679
other three. They're all gone.
That's definitely a concern. Now. Trevor

938
01:02:00,119 --> 01:02:01,920
is already dealing with injuries. I
think he's gonna miss eight weeks. Town

939
01:02:01,960 --> 01:02:06,480
Horton Tucker's out to start, and
he's pretty pivoble. The floor is gonna

940
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,199
shrink with him. You just if
you're trying to get me to bet against

941
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:14,639
a Lebron James team at this I
can't do it. And like they were

942
01:02:14,679 --> 01:02:19,199
twelve games under over excuse me,
five hundred last year, and that's while

943
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:22,519
dealing with just a ton of stuff
on their end. And so if they're

944
01:02:22,559 --> 01:02:29,000
even just like a little bit better
during the non Lebron minutes, which I

945
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:31,880
think they can be, this is
a team that I think can fairly easily

946
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:40,760
win at a fifty three win pace. Yeah, I just can't see the

947
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:45,679
stars all being that available. Like
Westbrook has dealt with some injuries too.

948
01:02:45,079 --> 01:02:50,280
Davis is usually good for twenty to
twenty five miss games. Lebron is going

949
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:57,800
to turn forty three this season.
It worries me, and I always feel

950
01:02:57,840 --> 01:03:01,280
bad betting against a team with Lebron
James on it. I had this at

951
01:03:01,320 --> 01:03:07,760
forty three wins because I think you
have to bake in a lot of absences,

952
01:03:07,840 --> 01:03:13,199
and when there are absences, it
gets really bleak really fast. Because

953
01:03:13,199 --> 01:03:19,400
this roster, beyond the age concerns
that have been mentioned at nauseum, is

954
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:25,159
just the poster child for name value
over actual production. It's just up and

955
01:03:25,199 --> 01:03:30,679
down the roster. It feels like
that it's the case, and Vegas knows

956
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:34,440
that, and I think that they
can capitalize on that. But like look

957
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,239
at the NBA Math Crystal Basketball rankings. I'll turn back to those because I

958
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:43,159
just want to go through where the
top members of the Lakers finished. Lebron

959
01:03:43,239 --> 01:03:46,920
finished in a tie for fourth,
which awesome. Anthony Davis was at eleventh,

960
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:52,880
which I think is reasonable. Russell
Westbrook was thirty fifth, which might

961
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:57,840
be too high based on how he's
looked in the preseason, how he's been

962
01:03:57,880 --> 01:04:02,119
able to play in previous campaigns in
recent memory. But then fourth is Taylon

963
01:04:02,199 --> 01:04:06,960
Horden Tucker in a tie for one
ninety third, and he's hurt Kendrick Nunn

964
01:04:08,199 --> 01:04:14,239
tie one ninety five. Malik Monk
tied for two thirteen, Dwight Howard tied

965
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:17,280
for two forty nine, Mellow tied
for two fifty six, Areza tied for

966
01:04:17,280 --> 01:04:21,039
two sixty nine, and Hurts Kent
Baysmore tied for two eighty seven. Wayne

967
01:04:21,079 --> 01:04:28,079
Ellington at two ninety eight. This
roster is not good. It's it's a

968
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:33,840
serious issue. Even if they stay
healthy like that's if you're winning fifty three

969
01:04:33,880 --> 01:04:40,840
games, you're just exhausting your actual
stars. You don't think that they have

970
01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:44,000
swing potential here, Like what if
Russell Westbrook just ends up being Look,

971
01:04:44,079 --> 01:04:46,679
so I can't If Westbrook fits,
if he's a good fit somehow, then

972
01:04:46,760 --> 01:04:51,679
yeah, absolutely this is a title
contender. There's I just think there's swing

973
01:04:51,719 --> 01:04:55,480
potential there. I totally get what
you're saying. I do think forty three

974
01:04:55,519 --> 01:04:59,559
wins is incredibly low. I can't
let me, let me go back to

975
01:04:59,559 --> 01:05:01,960
the five thirty eight projections there though, because five thirty eight had them at

976
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:08,960
forty two and forty and out of
the playoff picture. Look, look if

977
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:15,480
that I'm very prepared to get burned
by this. I just forty two is

978
01:05:15,519 --> 01:05:18,440
so it's Look, the record forty
three wins was still seventh in the Western

979
01:05:18,519 --> 01:05:23,639
Conference from mine just because I do
think those bottom teams are stealing a lot

980
01:05:23,639 --> 01:05:28,159
of wins this year. So I
think I'm just a fall thing to Lebron

981
01:05:28,199 --> 01:05:31,519
eighty being good. If you get
I do get that, I'm gonna take

982
01:05:31,559 --> 01:05:35,880
in like ten to twelve absences.
Well let's do combine, because Davis might

983
01:05:35,880 --> 01:05:40,599
miss Mortan Lebron, I'm gonna take
in like twenty to twenty four combined absences

984
01:05:40,639 --> 01:05:45,920
between them, and I do still
that made me think, I just if

985
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:47,000
it was very easy to be like, hey, they'll win fifty and go

986
01:05:47,079 --> 01:05:51,400
fifty and thirty two. I just
I can't like it's it's Lebron, Like,

987
01:05:51,559 --> 01:05:55,119
I just can't. I know,
last season went the way it did,

988
01:05:55,519 --> 01:05:58,320
but like he was banged up towards
the end anthy Davis was bad.

989
01:05:58,360 --> 01:06:01,000
He was banged up entering this well
bad. That was bad by his standards.

990
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,280
I just think, you know,
the game might even get easier for

991
01:06:04,360 --> 01:06:09,440
him playing with Russ in the minutes
that Lebron doesn't play just because he had

992
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:15,400
a problem with the lack of chemistry
alongside Dennis Shrewder. I'm I'm fully ready

993
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:17,199
prepared to get banged up by this. I think what I'm actually most concerned

994
01:06:17,199 --> 01:06:21,159
about, it's not the age.
It's not even the injury history with Anty

995
01:06:21,199 --> 01:06:26,000
Davis. It's not even the fit
with Russell Westbrook. It's the defense.

996
01:06:26,559 --> 01:06:30,480
Is because it's the lake, it
might if it's not. Anthony Davis has

997
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:31,480
to be defensive Player of the Year. I think he is one of the

998
01:06:31,480 --> 01:06:38,679
most underappreciated defenders in the game because
what he does, it manifests in more

999
01:06:38,719 --> 01:06:43,519
than blocks and steals, because he's
just like he does everything. And yes,

1000
01:06:43,559 --> 01:06:45,239
I think they've put him in positions
to where it'd be nice if he

1001
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,159
played more center. We can make
jokes. It doesn't seem like he's gonna

1002
01:06:48,159 --> 01:06:51,440
start games at center this year.
I think he's still The other thing that

1003
01:06:51,519 --> 01:06:55,000
kind of told me on this after
thinking about it, was I think he

1004
01:06:55,079 --> 01:06:58,559
ends up playing two thirds of his
minutes at center when all is said and

1005
01:06:58,599 --> 01:07:00,400
done, and I think that's the
recipe for the team to be fine.

1006
01:07:00,639 --> 01:07:05,519
I think they've gotten enough, you
know, complimentary shooting around what is otherwise

1007
01:07:05,559 --> 01:07:10,079
a clunky star Trio. Lebron has
been a pretty good shooter over the past

1008
01:07:10,079 --> 01:07:14,599
few years. Monkey's automatic I expected
to play mellow Is. Look, sometimes

1009
01:07:14,599 --> 01:07:16,840
I think we just overrate someone who
can score fifteen points a game and shoot

1010
01:07:16,880 --> 01:07:20,960
like forty percent on catching shoot threes. I understand he's bad on defense.

1011
01:07:21,800 --> 01:07:26,000
You know, I don't know that
Molligue Monker. Kendrick Nunn is just much

1012
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:29,800
better on defense. You do have
Kem Bay's Moore here if Trevor Reason gets

1013
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,199
healthy. So there are lineups that
I think you can come together where it's

1014
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:36,320
three to four, where it's three
out, because I don't know what you

1015
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:41,000
want to consider. Davis Rustbrook's a
non shooter. Davis is probably closer to

1016
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,639
a non shooter than not even if
he's taking those but Lebron and then two

1017
01:07:43,639 --> 01:07:47,039
other shooters, I think you have
a pathway to building a good amount of

1018
01:07:47,039 --> 01:07:51,599
those lineups. This isn't my most
confident pick. I want to make that

1019
01:07:51,639 --> 01:07:56,880
clear. I just a lot of
things to me have to go wrong for

1020
01:07:56,920 --> 01:08:00,800
them to be like barely five hundred
and ending up in playing or a lottery

1021
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:03,639
territory. Right now, I guess
I could just as easily see a scenario

1022
01:08:04,039 --> 01:08:10,679
where the defense is going to be
that bad. Lebron is a brilliant basketball

1023
01:08:10,679 --> 01:08:14,719
player. It recognizes that and starts
really trying on defense again and has to

1024
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:18,279
see more offensive responsibilities to Westbrook,
which isn't going to go well, then

1025
01:08:18,279 --> 01:08:23,119
you don't have any players to take
over. I just I see the disaster

1026
01:08:23,199 --> 01:08:28,279
potential here, but them still talenting
their way into the playoffs. I'm just

1027
01:08:28,439 --> 01:08:31,079
I'm like, I'm gonna I should
take a screenshot of our faces right now

1028
01:08:31,079 --> 01:08:35,319
on zoom because my look of just
like, I'm so disillusioned by everything you

1029
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:39,600
just said. I want to take
one just to see my reaction to your

1030
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:44,880
big I'm really just like, I
don't know if they I'm prepared to get

1031
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:46,520
burned. I would still have thought
that you would have had them like more

1032
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:50,920
comfortably above five hundred territory. Now, this is a pretty easy one for

1033
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:56,239
me. Let's we just spent way
too much time in the Lakers, which

1034
01:08:56,239 --> 01:08:58,520
I guess is part of the course. Let's move on to the Memphis Grizzlies.

1035
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:02,239
Mimitus Grizzlies were set at forty one
and a half. I ended up

1036
01:09:02,239 --> 01:09:08,439
having them at forty four, so
comfortably on the overside here, which probably

1037
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:12,560
shouldn't be a surprise after how high
it was on them last year. Jaren

1038
01:09:12,680 --> 01:09:17,039
Jackson Jr. Is fully healthy,
looks really good during the preseason. If

1039
01:09:17,039 --> 01:09:21,680
he is even a shadow of what
he's supposed to be, this team takes

1040
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:26,039
a big stride. Desmond Baine.
I think there's a leap there. Do

1041
01:09:26,199 --> 01:09:30,600
Anthony Melton gonna get big minutes.
John Morant potential for a leap there.

1042
01:09:30,720 --> 01:09:33,520
Steven Adams looks like a really good
fit with this roster. Kyle Anderson is

1043
01:09:33,560 --> 01:09:39,760
awesome. Jarret Culver might be good
at basketball someday, but probably not this

1044
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:42,199
season. Dylan Brooksman, he is
healthy. I think that he brings a

1045
01:09:42,199 --> 01:09:45,960
lot on defense and at least gives
you an aggressive, albeit inconsistent and probably

1046
01:09:46,000 --> 01:09:49,359
too much of a takeover score.
And there's a place for that on a

1047
01:09:49,439 --> 01:09:54,600
roster like this. I just like
a lot about this team. I can't

1048
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:57,399
believe we're going to do this again. I'm picking the under I got burned

1049
01:09:57,399 --> 01:10:00,399
by it last year. Jaren Jackson
Juniors had some really nice moments. It's

1050
01:10:00,680 --> 01:10:04,119
a tradition on this podcast, right
we just it has to happen. For

1051
01:10:04,119 --> 01:10:06,239
what It's more, Sharon Brown is
with you. She picked the over for

1052
01:10:06,239 --> 01:10:09,680
the Grizzlies as well, and it
was the same win total that we were

1053
01:10:09,760 --> 01:10:17,199
using. I've always said Sharon is
always right. So they they very clearly

1054
01:10:17,279 --> 01:10:20,840
steered out of the immediate picture over
the off season to me by making that

1055
01:10:20,880 --> 01:10:24,239
you on his found run his trade. I don't know if there's going to

1056
01:10:24,279 --> 01:10:27,159
be this huge drop off to Steven
Adams. Maybe the defense gets a little

1057
01:10:27,159 --> 01:10:30,840
bit better there, but this team
is just they're structured in a way that

1058
01:10:30,880 --> 01:10:35,000
I think something's going to happen,
whether it's a Kyle Anderson trade. What

1059
01:10:35,079 --> 01:10:39,159
if there's a Danthe Melton drop off, who shot like a trillion percent from

1060
01:10:39,199 --> 01:10:44,239
three? Are they going to prioritize
the development of Zaiyar Williams give Desmond Bain

1061
01:10:44,319 --> 01:10:46,960
more on ball responsibility, which the
last both of those actually I think they

1062
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:50,159
should. I like Zaya Williams,
and I am so high on Desmond Baine

1063
01:10:50,159 --> 01:10:54,000
it's not even funny. John Moran. I do expect him to get better,

1064
01:10:54,319 --> 01:10:57,960
and he's shown like just flashes of
being more diverse when it comes to

1065
01:10:57,960 --> 01:11:00,319
the mid range game and the types
of three is that he's taking. If

1066
01:11:00,359 --> 01:11:04,560
he turns into just that every level
score that ends up being absolutely huge.

1067
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:09,159
The West is just it's still brutal
to me. And I don't think this

1068
01:11:09,199 --> 01:11:14,359
team is as concerned with making a
dent now as people think I am.

1069
01:11:15,039 --> 01:11:17,720
I don't have like a feel for
where they're going to rank on offense or

1070
01:11:17,800 --> 01:11:20,319
defense this year, which is kind
of just this red flag to me.

1071
01:11:21,039 --> 01:11:25,640
So I'm going I'm going under it's
reluctant because they burned me two years in

1072
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:28,439
a row. I didn't have them
in the playoffs and I'm essentially not having

1073
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:30,960
them in the playoffs again, and
they've disproved me twice. I'll learn my

1074
01:11:31,039 --> 01:11:36,239
lesson at some point. It's apparently
not right now, though my forty four

1075
01:11:36,279 --> 01:11:41,119
wins from Memphis actually had them at
number six in the Western Conference for me,

1076
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:43,720
So I think they're going to be
comfortably a playoff team this year.

1077
01:11:43,720 --> 01:11:48,640
I just I'm ready for that big
Jamran leap where it's like the leap that

1078
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:53,560
leaves no doubt about whether he's going
to be an All Star, even given

1079
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:57,880
the ridiculous card depth within the Western
Conference. I don't have that doubt right

1080
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,239
now. I'm just like, do
they have enough shooting around him? Do

1081
01:12:00,279 --> 01:12:04,680
they have enough secondary shot creation around
him? You know, Dylan Brooks will

1082
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:09,560
get healthy and should be fine.
I just I don't know what this team's

1083
01:12:09,560 --> 01:12:12,439
identity ends up being. I just
I don't have a great feel. I'm

1084
01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:15,439
not surprised by this one at all, though, because I know we differ

1085
01:12:15,439 --> 01:12:20,760
on Dylan Brooks, and we've on
a previous podcast episode disagreed on whether Kyle

1086
01:12:20,840 --> 01:12:27,520
Anderson is going to stay in town, so I totally understand why we're on

1087
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:31,960
opposite sides of this one. I
want to move on to the Miami Heat.

1088
01:12:32,560 --> 01:12:34,920
Let's do it. It's at forty
eight and a half and you are

1089
01:12:35,039 --> 01:12:40,359
up first. This was really hard
because I just I love the top five

1090
01:12:40,399 --> 01:12:43,319
on the roster, and I remained
a Tyler Hero believer. I think people

1091
01:12:43,319 --> 01:12:45,359
are probably two all the way out
on him, in large part because of

1092
01:12:45,359 --> 01:12:47,600
that report that they wouldn't give him
up in a James Harden trade, where

1093
01:12:47,600 --> 01:12:50,760
I've been over this before. My
theory is you let that leak out because

1094
01:12:50,760 --> 01:12:55,479
you had no path to getting James
Harden anyway, So why even make it

1095
01:12:55,520 --> 01:13:00,279
seem like you're discussing Tyler Hero publicly. It gets iffy after those six Demon

1096
01:13:00,399 --> 01:13:02,279
was fine last year, but we're
like two years removed from Duane Demon being

1097
01:13:02,279 --> 01:13:05,680
really good. Max Struce and or
Gabe Vinson are gonna have to be part

1098
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:10,000
of this rotation. Victual the people
is expected to play and they definitely do

1099
01:13:10,039 --> 01:13:12,960
not need as much out of Victual. Ladipo was the Pacers did. Just

1100
01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:15,399
what does he look like? There
are you gonna get? Is there enough

1101
01:13:15,399 --> 01:13:18,159
spacing on this team? Jimmy Butler
is still not a three point volume guy.

1102
01:13:18,399 --> 01:13:20,840
PG Tucker is not a three point
volume guy. Even when they're going

1103
01:13:20,840 --> 01:13:25,319
in. You're putting an awful lot
of bam Adebayo has not stretched beyond the

1104
01:13:25,399 --> 01:13:28,119
arc just yet. You're putting an
awful lot of pressure in your starting live

1105
01:13:28,159 --> 01:13:31,640
up on Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson, and you can also throw Tyler here

1106
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:33,760
on the line up. You can
have three shooters fairly easily and and you

1107
01:13:33,800 --> 01:13:38,840
get to play. They're passed to
playing three four out, five out is

1108
01:13:38,840 --> 01:13:42,600
probably not happening with this team.
They feel like a playoff team. They're

1109
01:13:42,640 --> 01:13:45,560
gonna not They're gonna fuck around during
the regular season, but they're they're older

1110
01:13:46,079 --> 01:13:50,199
and I or I shouldn't say they
are older, but Jimmy Butler and Kyle

1111
01:13:50,279 --> 01:13:54,560
Lowry are kind of up there,
and this feels like the quintessential. They're

1112
01:13:54,560 --> 01:13:59,279
gonna care the most when the playoffs
roll around, especially given what happened to

1113
01:13:59,319 --> 01:14:00,920
them when they just got the shit
kicked out of them by Milwaukee in the

1114
01:14:00,920 --> 01:14:04,560
postseason next year. So it wouldn't
surprise me if they ended up being a

1115
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:09,720
fifty win team. I just this
doesn't feel like a regular team that's gonna

1116
01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:12,560
peak in the regular season. And
even if their top five six players are

1117
01:14:12,600 --> 01:14:15,800
great, you're still gonna run into
those depth issues. This team feels like

1118
01:14:15,800 --> 01:14:18,840
it should be rounding into form around
the playoffs, when either they've made moves

1119
01:14:19,199 --> 01:14:23,239
at the trade deadline, maybe they've
capitalized on the buyout market, and or

1120
01:14:23,359 --> 01:14:27,319
Victor Ladipo was back, had some
games under his belt, and if he's

1121
01:14:27,359 --> 01:14:30,039
your sixth or seventh man, BA
becomes like this huge luxury and he's sort

1122
01:14:30,039 --> 01:14:33,239
of like one of the biggest swing
pieces in the Eastern Conference. I would

1123
01:14:33,279 --> 01:14:39,279
argue, if you get even sixty
five percent of the player people thought Victor

1124
01:14:39,399 --> 01:14:43,880
Ladipo was a few years ago,
that changes the whole complexion. It might

1125
01:14:44,000 --> 01:14:45,720
really have been a few years ago. We should say, what's that he

1126
01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:48,359
might really have been. He might
really have been that player a few years

1127
01:14:48,359 --> 01:14:53,199
ago. Like it's not to say
that's a fluke, No, I'm just

1128
01:14:53,239 --> 01:14:56,079
saying, like injuries are, who
knows what happens if he was still healthy

1129
01:14:56,159 --> 01:14:59,960
exactly. I'm just terrifying he's theoretically
like, I don't think they would start

1130
01:15:00,159 --> 01:15:02,039
him, although that would be really
fun if you had, Like they should

1131
01:15:02,039 --> 01:15:04,199
definitely play him with Kyle Lowry and
Jimmy Butler. At the same time,

1132
01:15:04,239 --> 01:15:06,399
that's a lot of ball handling.
I throw Tyler Hero in there too.

1133
01:15:06,720 --> 01:15:10,840
He those four ball handlers. That
being said, if he's like your seventh

1134
01:15:10,840 --> 01:15:14,319
guy or like just coming off the
bench for you, that still feels like

1135
01:15:14,359 --> 01:15:16,680
something that's going to be most valuable
in the playoffs when he comes back has

1136
01:15:16,680 --> 01:15:19,239
repped under his belt, and when
I think that this team is just going

1137
01:15:19,319 --> 01:15:23,239
to be more locked in. I
don't want to discount the coaching job that

1138
01:15:23,319 --> 01:15:26,119
Ers Ballister is going to do for
them to clear this though. You have

1139
01:15:26,159 --> 01:15:29,359
to tell me that not only did
Tyler Hero make a huge jump, they

1140
01:15:29,399 --> 01:15:36,840
had pristine health and that basically everyone
on their bench outperformed expectations. This is

1141
01:15:36,880 --> 01:15:42,319
a funny one, and I should
note again that I did my win projections

1142
01:15:42,359 --> 01:15:45,800
before even looking at the over under
lions. I was at forty eight wins,

1143
01:15:45,840 --> 01:15:50,199
which means that I am also on
the underside, just barely. But

1144
01:15:50,720 --> 01:15:55,439
I still feel like I have to
talk really positively about this team to justify

1145
01:15:55,479 --> 01:15:59,479
it, which to me just it
feels like this over under was set really

1146
01:15:59,520 --> 01:16:02,399
high because I fully expected once I
put that number down to be talking about

1147
01:16:02,399 --> 01:16:08,560
it like it was an over I
think it comes down to me having done

1148
01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:13,119
a one eighty on Hero where just
the more I've watched him this preseason,

1149
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:17,359
the more I've been convinced that he's
ready to be a legitimately positive, big

1150
01:16:17,359 --> 01:16:23,159
minute contributor to the point that he
can float some lineups, and that coupled

1151
01:16:23,159 --> 01:16:29,439
with thinking we see a lot of
positive from Max Strusce and liking Kazo Paula

1152
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:36,119
Ala kaze O Paula. There's I
was hesitant on this one, but I

1153
01:16:36,159 --> 01:16:42,159
just ended up really liking the construction
of the team beyond the lack of depth,

1154
01:16:42,640 --> 01:16:45,319
and thinking that it makes a lot
of sense. I'm just I'm giggling

1155
01:16:45,359 --> 01:16:48,119
woun't take a screenage out of me
giggling too? What a post these somewhere

1156
01:16:48,119 --> 01:16:55,760
at some point because you literally were
just justifying the heats over or their path

1157
01:16:55,760 --> 01:17:00,079
to the over being good, and
you were using Kazipola and Max Druce is

1158
01:17:00,119 --> 01:17:05,279
just like the examples. I just
I know, man, this is me.

1159
01:17:05,439 --> 01:17:12,600
Can I do like the Lowry Jimmy
Butler Bam Autobio pairing is so good

1160
01:17:12,640 --> 01:17:17,600
and fun, especially with Duncan Robinson
to space the court around it here,

1161
01:17:17,760 --> 01:17:21,840
So it's going to be a nightmare
to play against this team when Lowry,

1162
01:17:23,039 --> 01:17:28,000
Butler, Tucker and Autobio are all
on the court playing defense there. I

1163
01:17:28,000 --> 01:17:30,960
don't know, I don't know,
like it's it's such a weird one because

1164
01:17:31,560 --> 01:17:33,720
I thought I was low on this
team and then I felt like I ended

1165
01:17:33,800 --> 01:17:39,159
up being high on this team and
it's still technically the under I'm just confused

1166
01:17:40,560 --> 01:17:43,359
behind the sauces be made here.
Are you okay with your screenshot of your

1167
01:17:43,399 --> 01:17:45,560
face being covered by a microphone being
posted on Twitter as we record this?

1168
01:17:47,359 --> 01:17:53,279
I mean sure, a lot of
hairlines, jerks. I don't even think

1169
01:17:53,279 --> 01:17:55,720
that they could really see. I
could just post my reaction to it because

1170
01:17:55,840 --> 01:18:00,479
I look, you're I don't want
to put Russell Westbrook is not as good

1171
01:18:00,479 --> 01:18:03,560
as i'd probably put in behind all
three of the Heat stars. But you're

1172
01:18:03,600 --> 01:18:06,600
worried about his fit in Los Angeles, But you're not worried about like the

1173
01:18:06,680 --> 01:18:13,520
Lakers playing of the Heat playing two
non three point shooters with an iffy volume

1174
01:18:13,600 --> 01:18:15,840
three point shooter and PJ Tucker who's
also eighty years old, like you just

1175
01:18:16,119 --> 01:18:18,720
but because they have Duncan Robinson,
Like the spacing is gonna be final,

1176
01:18:18,840 --> 01:18:23,479
Kyle Lowrys. I don't think it's
gonna be a great offensive team. I

1177
01:18:23,520 --> 01:18:27,119
think it's gonna be a very difficult
team to play against him to swoar against.

1178
01:18:29,880 --> 01:18:32,279
Can we move on? I just
like Christmas Tough, it wouldn't surprise

1179
01:18:32,359 --> 01:18:35,560
me if they were over. I
just you have a lot more faith in

1180
01:18:35,640 --> 01:18:40,479
Like I'm probably most intrigued if I'm
picking, like the don't have a lot

1181
01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:44,000
of surprise. I'm just max strus. I didn't even pick the over.

1182
01:18:44,479 --> 01:18:47,960
I still picked the under. You're
like you're talking with this like confidence about

1183
01:18:48,600 --> 01:18:54,399
Kasyapaala, Like what who they the
first time they never seen because you were

1184
01:18:55,520 --> 01:18:59,960
But it's because you were so low
they treated like fifty second round picks to

1185
01:19:00,039 --> 01:19:02,000
get him. They shouldn't even have
him. And you're just like, they

1186
01:19:02,520 --> 01:19:05,880
might be a fifty win team because
they have Kasey hawk Polla coming off the

1187
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:10,520
bench. I'm gonna be like semi
floord if he plays a real role for

1188
01:19:10,520 --> 01:19:13,560
them in the regular season. And
I know you picked the understill, but

1189
01:19:13,680 --> 01:19:16,359
like you almost made this an easier
under decision for me than it was in

1190
01:19:16,439 --> 01:19:21,079
the first place. I feel like
I feel like cruly blowing this Pola thing

1191
01:19:21,079 --> 01:19:26,199
out of proportion, where I'm just
saying he's a piece that I'm intrigued by,

1192
01:19:28,680 --> 01:19:31,800
like the reason they're gonna win forty
eight games. Can we move on

1193
01:19:31,880 --> 01:19:38,960
to the Bucks? Please? Sure? Milwaukee Bucks were set at fifty four

1194
01:19:39,000 --> 01:19:41,479
and a half, and fuck I
have to go first on this one.

1195
01:19:42,039 --> 01:19:45,680
Right after all of that, I
end them at fifty four wins. And

1196
01:19:45,760 --> 01:19:47,800
to me, it's just purely a
matter of motivation, where I think in

1197
01:19:47,920 --> 01:19:54,000
terms of pure talent, they are
unquestionably a team that could push towards sixty

1198
01:19:54,000 --> 01:19:58,119
wins if we wanted to, or
else it wouldn't have won a title and

1199
01:19:58,399 --> 01:20:03,800
come back with l largely a similar
roster, so Chris Middleton, Jannis brook

1200
01:20:03,800 --> 01:20:08,079
Lopez, a healthy Dante de Vincenzo, Pat Connad and looked like you could

1201
01:20:08,079 --> 01:20:11,159
actually play at points. I think
Grayson Allen plays a role in this team,

1202
01:20:11,239 --> 01:20:14,800
all defense, Drew Holiday. It's
a very good team, but I

1203
01:20:14,840 --> 01:20:17,720
also think it recognizes that it can
get away with playing Jannis for thirty minutes

1204
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:21,640
a game this season because it has
bigger aspirations than winning regular season games.

1205
01:20:24,880 --> 01:20:28,560
So you went with the under.
I went with the under, and again

1206
01:20:28,600 --> 01:20:31,199
just purely a question a matter of
motivation, where I just I don't I

1207
01:20:31,239 --> 01:20:35,880
think it experiments a lot. I
think the Bucks are trying to give Jordan

1208
01:20:35,960 --> 01:20:41,600
Noura a path to having actual minutes
of significance by overplaying them a little bit.

1209
01:20:41,920 --> 01:20:45,399
The big man depth behind Jannis and
brook Lopez is a little bit questionable.

1210
01:20:45,399 --> 01:20:49,039
I'm not sure I buy Bobby portis
being a sustainable big minute peace and

1211
01:20:49,079 --> 01:20:55,079
beyond that they're really grasping at straws
or playing with really small lineups. I

1212
01:20:55,119 --> 01:20:59,399
think that there's a lot of experimentation
done, and this is a dominant team

1213
01:20:59,399 --> 01:21:05,319
in the playoffs that just doesn't push
towards sixty wins. So have you watched

1214
01:21:05,279 --> 01:21:09,760
the honest the preseason he is.
I saw Jason Maples on Twitter put it

1215
01:21:09,800 --> 01:21:14,159
this, His shooting form looks really
smooth. It does. He's playing with

1216
01:21:14,279 --> 01:21:17,000
that championship confidence. It just feels
like he's figured it out. And this

1217
01:21:17,159 --> 01:21:20,039
was dating back to the playoffs before
He's even he doesn't need to hit these

1218
01:21:20,119 --> 01:21:24,920
jumpers. It feels like he is
so freaking confident in how he's going to

1219
01:21:25,000 --> 01:21:27,439
play on offense now, and it's
fine doing more of the off ball stuff

1220
01:21:27,439 --> 01:21:30,319
down the stretch of light games.
They were a little bit fortunate with their

1221
01:21:30,359 --> 01:21:32,399
health. They still won the title
without Dante di Vincenzo, who was their

1222
01:21:32,399 --> 01:21:35,760
fifth for Maybe maybe some people will
take him over Brook Lopez. I wouldn't

1223
01:21:35,760 --> 01:21:39,279
just yet. He's their fifth best
player, definitely one of their five most

1224
01:21:39,279 --> 01:21:42,439
important players. He'll come back at
some point. I am a little bit

1225
01:21:42,479 --> 01:21:45,199
more concerned about the overall depth than
others. You know, Ty Windis who

1226
01:21:45,199 --> 01:21:48,359
I spoke with about the Bucks.
He's very confident in Bobby Portis sort of

1227
01:21:48,399 --> 01:21:51,720
replicating the postseason that he had.
I'd be a little bit more skeptical.

1228
01:21:51,960 --> 01:21:57,000
I do think they did okay with
like their bargain Bins. I was surprised

1229
01:21:57,000 --> 01:21:59,840
that George Hill got more than the
minimum after the season that he had last.

1230
01:22:00,159 --> 01:22:02,039
And George Hill is still a lot
better than Jeff t And the last

1231
01:22:02,039 --> 01:22:05,439
time George Hill was good, he
was in Milwaukee. I still remain intrigued

1232
01:22:05,439 --> 01:22:10,960
by Rodney was just a nightmare.
Could not throw an entry pass to save

1233
01:22:11,039 --> 01:22:16,199
his life as a point guard.
Just a disaster. Yeah, but I

1234
01:22:16,239 --> 01:22:19,640
also think so Grayson Nowan's shooting I
think helps give you a little bit of

1235
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:24,720
ball handling. I also think either
he or Rodney Hood are just gonna be

1236
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:27,800
good for this team. Maybe it's
both. I really just I love the

1237
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:30,880
idea of Rodney Hood, but he's
been more of concept than actual player for

1238
01:22:30,920 --> 01:22:34,800
so long now. Shemy oderlay is
the closest they can get to a PJ.

1239
01:22:34,920 --> 01:22:38,840
Tucker facts simile, And I actually
don't think he's that far off where

1240
01:22:39,079 --> 01:22:43,439
Tucker gives you more defense in the
playoffs. We're not talking about the playoffs

1241
01:22:43,520 --> 01:22:46,600
here. The Bucks still feel like
they're built to do great in the regular

1242
01:22:46,600 --> 01:22:49,479
season. And the other thing I'll
point out is that they're no longer going

1243
01:22:49,520 --> 01:22:56,000
to be trying to implemate implement Excuse
me as much new stuff. They've gone

1244
01:22:56,000 --> 01:22:58,560
through, some of the offensive motions, they've tried out, the new defensive

1245
01:22:58,560 --> 01:23:00,039
coverages. The fact that they're going
to be more used to that that Drew

1246
01:23:00,079 --> 01:23:02,840
Holiday is no longer knew. Yeah, if they're trying to carve it a

1247
01:23:02,880 --> 01:23:05,399
role for Jordan Wire, like,
yeah, that could take some time working

1248
01:23:05,399 --> 01:23:09,760
down to even Shenzel back in the
rotation. Is Brook Lopez so old that

1249
01:23:09,800 --> 01:23:13,840
maybe there's regression from him at this
point as a backline rim protector or as

1250
01:23:13,840 --> 01:23:15,880
an offensive player he was doing.
I think people now know him as like

1251
01:23:15,920 --> 01:23:19,119
this long range bomber that wasn't really
his game last year he was still effective.

1252
01:23:19,560 --> 01:23:24,359
I'm just there's so many different ways
this roster can play, including Jannie

1253
01:23:24,399 --> 01:23:28,520
as the true five, not playing
next to Lopez or Portus, and I

1254
01:23:28,520 --> 01:23:32,279
would still be intrigued by those minutes. Chris Milton still borderline All NBA candidate

1255
01:23:32,279 --> 01:23:35,479
in my mind. Drew Holidays absolutely, you know, he carries one of

1256
01:23:35,479 --> 01:23:39,279
the heavy Well maybe not so,
but he's just he's so good on defense

1257
01:23:39,359 --> 01:23:43,600
and he can carry really heavy workloads, help you float lineups while running the

1258
01:23:43,640 --> 01:23:46,600
offense, also guarding the opponent's best
player. This was an easy over for

1259
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:49,720
me, and I get that you. I get the championship Malays. I

1260
01:23:49,720 --> 01:23:55,359
could totally understand it. If Janice
and Drew and Middleton weren't the stars on

1261
01:23:55,399 --> 01:23:59,359
this team, maybe I would vibe
that, but they just don't know that.

1262
01:23:59,399 --> 01:24:03,239
I'm looking at like, I don't
feel like it's championship Malays so much

1263
01:24:03,239 --> 01:24:08,359
as just deprioritizing the regular season to
that extent. I think, and I

1264
01:24:08,439 --> 01:24:12,279
haven't finalized this yet, so it's
not like firmly on the record, but

1265
01:24:12,359 --> 01:24:15,159
I think that Milwaukee is probably going
to be my title pick this year.

1266
01:24:15,680 --> 01:24:19,239
And I still I just I think
we see ten to twelve games that Jannest

1267
01:24:19,279 --> 01:24:25,119
just sits out of plays thirty minutes
a game, because the only mission he

1268
01:24:25,199 --> 01:24:29,319
has now as a two time MVP
and one time champion is going to be

1269
01:24:29,359 --> 01:24:32,840
winning that second title and validating it. Just seeking that title validation, not

1270
01:24:32,880 --> 01:24:38,600
necessarily during the regular season. One. I'm still thinking about your Kasya Polan

1271
01:24:38,680 --> 01:24:41,359
from before you predicted that he was
gonna Yeah, I see that there's a

1272
01:24:41,399 --> 01:24:45,119
new tweet up from from your account
here. That's a fun one to disagree

1273
01:24:45,159 --> 01:24:46,279
on. I actually thought that was
going to be an easy over for you

1274
01:24:46,399 --> 01:24:49,520
with Milwaukee, I'm intrigued by that
one. If you weren't such a coward,

1275
01:24:49,560 --> 01:24:55,039
it's much like it's much like Denver
where to me, it's it's very

1276
01:24:55,079 --> 01:25:00,560
much a compliment to its title chances
that I'm going with the on. I

1277
01:25:00,600 --> 01:25:03,479
have a feeling I know where you're
gonna pick for the Minnesota Timberwolves, though

1278
01:25:04,279 --> 01:25:08,840
you're probably gonna be correct, but
it is you first. They're set at

1279
01:25:08,840 --> 01:25:11,159
thirty five and a half, so
you're gonna have to wait and find out

1280
01:25:11,239 --> 01:25:15,199
later. I went with the under. This one was actually fairly tough for

1281
01:25:15,239 --> 01:25:16,760
me. I wanted to go with
the over because I love the idea of

1282
01:25:16,800 --> 01:25:20,680
their top five players. Jared Vanderbilt
probably starts with karl Anthy Towns, but

1283
01:25:20,760 --> 01:25:25,359
the five man lineup of Malik Beasley, Towns, Jane McDaniels, Di Loo,

1284
01:25:25,479 --> 01:25:28,640
and Auntie Edwards, who was fantastic
to close the year last year super

1285
01:25:28,680 --> 01:25:30,560
intriguing. I do like a lot
of their individuals coming off the bench.

1286
01:25:30,800 --> 01:25:34,840
Patrick Beverley definitely helps them. Jared
Vanderbilt is a human energy drink and it's

1287
01:25:34,880 --> 01:25:41,720
gonna really give you some just juice
on the glass. I just the wing

1288
01:25:41,840 --> 01:25:45,439
rotation after the starting lineup gets iffy, you're gonna have to rely on Torrian

1289
01:25:45,479 --> 01:25:48,640
Prince they've tried playing, because it
seems like they're still searching for that four

1290
01:25:49,079 --> 01:25:53,560
next to Towns. It doesn't seem
like they want Jane McDaniels to play a

1291
01:25:53,560 --> 01:25:57,239
ton of power forward. They've tested
out more of nas reading cat. I

1292
01:25:57,279 --> 01:25:59,760
don't necessarily like that fit. I
don't even know if I love the Jared

1293
01:25:59,840 --> 01:26:04,720
Van under built Karl Anthony Town's fit. They are one player short of just

1294
01:26:04,880 --> 01:26:06,920
me being really confident. I don't
know if I would have them as a

1295
01:26:06,920 --> 01:26:11,920
playoff team. What gets tricky here
is if they're the team that trades for

1296
01:26:11,920 --> 01:26:15,640
Ben Simmons, because regardless of what
they give up, as long as Edwards

1297
01:26:15,640 --> 01:26:17,760
and Towns are still on the team, which they would be, you don't

1298
01:26:17,800 --> 01:26:23,479
trade Towns or Edwards quite frankly,
for Ben Simmons. This would be an

1299
01:26:23,479 --> 01:26:25,760
easy over for me. I just
don't think they're going to be the team

1300
01:26:25,800 --> 01:26:28,520
that ultimately gets there. That would
have to be like a three four,

1301
01:26:28,720 --> 01:26:33,000
five team trade machination. That would
be super complicated. Because I think the

1302
01:26:33,039 --> 01:26:38,039
Sixers would like Jane McDaniels. I
think they could use my league, Beasley,

1303
01:26:38,119 --> 01:26:40,840
but you need to find another team. De'angel Russell is not it for

1304
01:26:40,880 --> 01:26:43,720
them, and I think you need
to find another team that in theory,

1305
01:26:43,800 --> 01:26:46,479
it makes sense given what Minnesota has
done in the past, to bet against

1306
01:26:46,520 --> 01:26:50,640
their future and take on picks to
send Philly something and perhaps that team comes

1307
01:26:50,640 --> 01:26:54,640
out of the woodwork once the season
gets underway. I'm not gonna go out

1308
01:26:54,680 --> 01:26:57,199
on a limb, though, and
say that the Minnesota is the team that

1309
01:26:57,239 --> 01:27:01,680
gets Ben Simmons. So I'm going
reluctant me under and this feels like a

1310
01:27:01,760 --> 01:27:08,399
risk, But I'm I don't know. They're like after their top six seven

1311
01:27:08,479 --> 01:27:11,199
guys. I just I have a
lot of questions, and even if they

1312
01:27:11,239 --> 01:27:14,800
get great health, the defense should
still be pretty terrible. Like there's some

1313
01:27:14,880 --> 01:27:17,800
low hanging fruit, like get all
the way back in transition. A lot

1314
01:27:17,800 --> 01:27:20,880
of people have said Auntie Edwards has
gotten better. I actually think he improved

1315
01:27:20,920 --> 01:27:26,159
away from the ball later on in
the season too. Jade McDaniels is fantastic.

1316
01:27:26,640 --> 01:27:30,000
I just I don't know there's I
think they're still gonna be very bad

1317
01:27:30,239 --> 01:27:32,880
on the defensive and the offense should
be lights out And it's not like we

1318
01:27:32,920 --> 01:27:36,159
haven't seen Carlo. I don't want
to use Covid as an example with him,

1319
01:27:36,239 --> 01:27:39,800
but like he's had injury issues in
the past, we've only seen him

1320
01:27:39,800 --> 01:27:43,439
playing eighty five games over the past
two seasons, so many circumstances beyond his

1321
01:27:43,479 --> 01:27:45,399
control. For that, I want
to make that clear. D'Angel Russell was

1322
01:27:45,479 --> 01:27:50,199
dealt with stuff. I guess you
could say Patrick Beverley is probably forever overrated

1323
01:27:50,359 --> 01:27:54,279
at this point, even though he
works offensively as a guy who can play

1324
01:27:54,319 --> 01:27:58,439
off the ball and in furious someone
who's gonna defend. They just there's still

1325
01:27:58,439 --> 01:28:00,239
too many questions, and I just
bigger thing for me would be, even

1326
01:28:00,239 --> 01:28:03,720
if you get the best performances from
all their best players, is this team

1327
01:28:03,720 --> 01:28:09,760
even twenty first in points allowed per
possession? I would say no. I

1328
01:28:09,760 --> 01:28:12,680
think I'm a little higher on the
defense than you, which might not be

1329
01:28:12,720 --> 01:28:15,760
too much of a surprise, but
I did have them winning thirty nine games,

1330
01:28:15,800 --> 01:28:23,000
so comfortably over but still not really
a playoff team. As for the

1331
01:28:23,039 --> 01:28:27,840
defense, I do think that there
are lineups that are feasibly good defensively,

1332
01:28:28,399 --> 01:28:31,800
especially if we get the version of
Karl Anthony Towns that I'm expecting given his

1333
01:28:32,039 --> 01:28:38,560
motivation and his health right now,
because I feel like we've largely forgotten just

1334
01:28:38,720 --> 01:28:43,319
how good he is. Where he's
just a game warping, once in a

1335
01:28:43,399 --> 01:28:50,720
generation offensively talented big who was also
trending towards being a legitimate semi plus on

1336
01:28:50,840 --> 01:28:58,479
defense before these injuries and the COVID
diagnosis and all of the trauma that he

1337
01:28:58,520 --> 01:29:01,039
had to deal with over the last
year took a toll, and he wasn't

1338
01:29:01,039 --> 01:29:05,640
as effective last year. So with
him anchoring a lineup at the five,

1339
01:29:06,039 --> 01:29:11,039
like if you're putting Jayden McDaniels,
a vastly improved version of Anthony Edwards,

1340
01:29:11,119 --> 01:29:15,319
Josha Kogi, and Patrick Beverley on
the floor, that's a good defensive lineup.

1341
01:29:15,840 --> 01:29:19,279
It's not a great one, but
I see a path towards this team

1342
01:29:19,319 --> 01:29:25,640
being maybe like eighteenth on defense with
a deadly enough offense that it can win

1343
01:29:25,680 --> 01:29:29,000
a lot of games. Again,
I still don't think it's a deep team,

1344
01:29:29,000 --> 01:29:31,680
that it's a playoff team, but
it's the most cohesive Minnesota team we've

1345
01:29:31,680 --> 01:29:36,880
seen in a long time, with
a potential dual star lineup with Anthony Edwards

1346
01:29:36,880 --> 01:29:41,520
and Carl Anthony Towns. That's why
we're so tough because Towns is borderline top

1347
01:29:41,560 --> 01:29:44,439
ten player league. He's definitely top
fifteen when he's healthy, top fifteen,

1348
01:29:44,439 --> 01:29:45,479
top twenty, whatever you want to
call it, and I do agree with

1349
01:29:45,520 --> 01:29:47,239
you, and I think it's a
part. We've seen him play like eighty

1350
01:29:47,239 --> 01:29:50,640
five games the past two seasons.
That's why we've forgotten how good he is.

1351
01:29:50,640 --> 01:29:54,279
Because it's ridiculously good. And if
you're going to get the Edwards,

1352
01:29:54,279 --> 01:29:57,880
you did it close last year.
Who's just better on defense. There's a

1353
01:29:57,920 --> 01:30:00,119
path to the over for them.
I will say this next team. Thirty

1354
01:30:00,159 --> 01:30:03,079
eight had forty wins. By the
way, what's that five? Thirty eight

1355
01:30:03,079 --> 01:30:08,279
had forty wins for the Timberwolves.
Projection systems have to love the idea of

1356
01:30:08,399 --> 01:30:10,840
Edwards with Towns. That has to
be a thing that just helps out of

1357
01:30:10,880 --> 01:30:15,960
time. New Orleans Pelicans. I
didn't have to think as hard about this

1358
01:30:15,000 --> 01:30:17,600
one. I don't know about you. I didn't either, and they were

1359
01:30:17,640 --> 01:30:20,840
set at thirty eight and a half. I went thirty seven, so it

1360
01:30:20,880 --> 01:30:26,199
was under but I never really considered
moving them out that much. While we

1361
01:30:26,239 --> 01:30:30,039
don't know what the return timetable is
for Zion Williamson and his foot because If

1362
01:30:30,039 --> 01:30:34,880
he's absent this the whole makeup of
this team is fundamentally altered. I don't

1363
01:30:34,880 --> 01:30:40,920
know that you really want brandon Ingram
carrying a team. I do really like

1364
01:30:41,680 --> 01:30:46,279
the DeVante Graham fit with this team. There's some intriguing depth that's not there

1365
01:30:46,359 --> 01:30:51,199
yet. I will forever be a
big Jonas Valentinis fan. I think that

1366
01:30:51,279 --> 01:30:56,680
he is another strong fit in theory. A lot of this team makes sense,

1367
01:30:56,720 --> 01:31:00,880
but with the Zion question mark,
and I think the question mark even

1368
01:31:00,920 --> 01:31:06,520
goes beyond the injury to the motivation
portion a little bit. Sometimes it's just

1369
01:31:08,359 --> 01:31:15,199
unless you're projecting just this massive leap
for Alexander Walker, which is reasonable,

1370
01:31:15,920 --> 01:31:20,600
and I think there's one a path
to him becoming a useful starter, probably

1371
01:31:20,640 --> 01:31:25,720
not a fringe star this season,
And if that doesn't happen, I just

1372
01:31:25,800 --> 01:31:30,479
I don't see where the production is
coming without Zion on the floor for seventy

1373
01:31:30,479 --> 01:31:36,359
five games. Did you just say
Zion's gonna miss seventy five games? No,

1374
01:31:36,479 --> 01:31:41,000
I said without like, unless he's
playing seventy five games. I was

1375
01:31:41,039 --> 01:31:44,439
wondering if you were trying to put
a fast one there. So I agree

1376
01:31:44,479 --> 01:31:46,840
with everything you said, I would
echo it. I also think, after

1377
01:31:46,840 --> 01:31:50,680
thinking about their offseason, I'm not
low. I'm not as low on it

1378
01:31:51,079 --> 01:31:56,359
as I once was. But they
did an awful lot to sort of just

1379
01:31:56,479 --> 01:31:59,760
end up at the same point in
my book, where you're probably just banking

1380
01:31:59,760 --> 01:32:03,119
more on internal development getting you a
lot better. I love Trey Murphy with

1381
01:32:03,119 --> 01:32:06,239
his team. I hope they play
Naji Marshall a bunch. The fit with

1382
01:32:06,279 --> 01:32:10,840
joannasm on Tunis is fine. I
think he helps you most in the non

1383
01:32:10,920 --> 01:32:13,920
Zion minutes, which is a big
deal. But now those non Zion minutes

1384
01:32:13,920 --> 01:32:16,079
are being extrapolated, and that was
just that was it for me. I

1385
01:32:16,079 --> 01:32:19,079
think brandon Ingram's a given. I
think Devonte Graham is probably better than he

1386
01:32:19,119 --> 01:32:23,079
was last year. And Charlotte still
can't finish at the rim, though luckily

1387
01:32:23,600 --> 01:32:26,439
the Pelicans are used to watching a
point guard in Lonza Ball who can't finish

1388
01:32:26,479 --> 01:32:30,399
it the rim either. I just
how much time is he missing and what

1389
01:32:30,520 --> 01:32:33,600
type of shape is he in when
he comes back. I don't think that

1390
01:32:33,640 --> 01:32:36,560
there's like this they're gonna blow up
this roster. I also don't think they're

1391
01:32:36,560 --> 01:32:40,479
gonna trade for a major upgrade.
I also think that there's a chance.

1392
01:32:40,479 --> 01:32:43,760
What if Devonte Graham is not better
than he was last season on top of

1393
01:32:43,800 --> 01:32:50,039
the Zion injury, so much shit
is then compounded. This team is so

1394
01:32:50,159 --> 01:32:54,720
confusing to me short and long term. I don't even know if I would

1395
01:32:54,720 --> 01:32:59,119
have him at the over with Zion
playing in seventy five games, but I

1396
01:32:59,119 --> 01:33:02,520
think it did comfortably comfortably. I
don't look Zion is. I think they've

1397
01:33:02,560 --> 01:33:06,279
built well around him. I just
don't know if there's a hymn to be

1398
01:33:06,359 --> 01:33:12,640
around fair I guess. But what
it boils down to for this subject specifically,

1399
01:33:12,640 --> 01:33:15,960
we don't have to deal on the
hypothetical over under Zion missing twenty two

1400
01:33:15,960 --> 01:33:19,039
games this season? Are you taking
me over the under? I'm gonna say

1401
01:33:19,039 --> 01:33:21,560
he misses more than that, and
so am I And I don't know how

1402
01:33:21,640 --> 01:33:25,920
this team gets to forty wins issue
if he's gonna miss like more than a

1403
01:33:26,000 --> 01:33:30,399
quarter of the season. Yeah,
I mean, I viewed thirty seven as

1404
01:33:30,439 --> 01:33:34,159
like a note of confidence compared to
where the perception is about their supporting cast.

1405
01:33:34,239 --> 01:33:39,479
But I'm just so worried about Zion. This was that was easy for

1406
01:33:39,520 --> 01:33:41,840
me. I don't want them to
be bad and Zion is entertaining as hell,

1407
01:33:41,880 --> 01:33:44,840
and I think, look, they
can run some really fun lineups too,

1408
01:33:45,119 --> 01:33:49,800
especially naw Zion Brandon Ingram give me
Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy put Zion

1409
01:33:49,840 --> 01:33:51,560
at the five. I know they
probably won't do that, but I would

1410
01:33:51,560 --> 01:33:56,960
love to see shit like that.
It's just and the whole like, we're

1411
01:33:57,000 --> 01:34:00,319
never gonna know the extent of his
injury at this point, because we didn't

1412
01:34:00,319 --> 01:34:03,359
know about it until Media Day and
actual media members where you know how news

1413
01:34:03,399 --> 01:34:06,760
breaks, trades, injuries, whatever, and you have people coming out saying,

1414
01:34:06,840 --> 01:34:10,239
yeah, like we had heard this
and that, like they were actually

1415
01:34:10,279 --> 01:34:15,800
plugged in people who were flabbergasted when
they heard about his foot on Media Day,

1416
01:34:15,880 --> 01:34:18,199
and then it took forever to hear
the news about his scan. And

1417
01:34:18,279 --> 01:34:20,880
it seems like he's at least as
we record this, like two and a

1418
01:34:20,880 --> 01:34:28,159
half weeks away from like being cleared
for anything. I if he's back before

1419
01:34:28,239 --> 01:34:32,319
Thanksgiving, I will be pleasantly surprised. I hope he is. Hope.

1420
01:34:32,720 --> 01:34:34,840
I don't want teams to be bad, and Zienon is one of the most.

1421
01:34:35,000 --> 01:34:39,000
He's also good. It's not just
that he's this novel entertaining player.

1422
01:34:39,319 --> 01:34:43,920
Point Zion was a revelation last year
and spectacular, and I think that they,

1423
01:34:44,119 --> 01:34:45,920
like I said, they're built to
better navigate the minutes without him this

1424
01:34:46,000 --> 01:34:51,119
year, if only because I think
Devonte Graham puts more traditional pressure on the

1425
01:34:51,119 --> 01:34:55,000
defense and they half court than Lonzo
Ballwood, even if he's still not a

1426
01:34:55,039 --> 01:34:58,239
good shooter, like he's just that
type of point card. And then Jonas

1427
01:34:58,319 --> 01:35:01,880
Valancrudas could just mash on if he's
playing in the second unit without playing with

1428
01:35:02,359 --> 01:35:06,119
bench players and Zions off the court
in ways that Steven Adams. That's never

1429
01:35:06,159 --> 01:35:10,680
something that he was going to do
in Crystal Basketball. And I don't know

1430
01:35:10,720 --> 01:35:14,199
if you've had a chance to look
at the finished product yet since we're recording

1431
01:35:14,199 --> 01:35:17,960
shortly after its full release, But
Zion was in a tie for eighteen and

1432
01:35:18,000 --> 01:35:21,279
it was the strangest tie imaginable.
Have you seen who he was tied with?

1433
01:35:21,520 --> 01:35:27,439
I did not. It is a
five way tie for the eighteenth spot

1434
01:35:27,920 --> 01:35:32,720
between Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson,
Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Riddy Gobert,

1435
01:35:33,359 --> 01:35:39,279
which was just a hilarious group of
players with such vastly differing play styles.

1436
01:35:39,520 --> 01:35:43,439
But I think it says a lot
about the company that we thought Zion

1437
01:35:43,479 --> 01:35:47,079
already kept. It's if availability is
a skill. There's definitely a debate as

1438
01:35:47,079 --> 01:35:50,239
to where he belongs in that pecking
order. If you're kind of just removing

1439
01:35:50,239 --> 01:35:55,039
the injury concerns, I think he's
the best player of that bunch. That's

1440
01:35:55,039 --> 01:35:58,239
fair. We're now on the New
York Knicks, and I have a feeling

1441
01:35:58,239 --> 01:36:01,760
where like, well behind the pace
we've set for ourselves. I was,

1442
01:36:01,880 --> 01:36:04,680
I kept we were actually doing pretty
good, and then we talked about the

1443
01:36:04,760 --> 01:36:12,640
Lakers, and I've just stopped looking
at it since. So, yeah,

1444
01:36:12,880 --> 01:36:15,119
is this mine? This is yours? And if the New York Knicks said

1445
01:36:15,119 --> 01:36:18,000
at forty one and a half,
I'm taking me over, I took the

1446
01:36:18,079 --> 01:36:20,800
under last year, and I think
what they're over under last were set like

1447
01:36:20,800 --> 01:36:25,239
twenty one point five, and I
still took the under. I will say

1448
01:36:25,279 --> 01:36:28,000
I want to see the receipts for
people who are mad about that, or

1449
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:31,640
who are mad that you want to
see the Knicks look. I've had like

1450
01:36:31,680 --> 01:36:34,760
there were commenters I wrote something for
br I wasn't even dumping on the Knicks.

1451
01:36:34,800 --> 01:36:38,159
I just said something like there is
a question, can they be this

1452
01:36:38,239 --> 01:36:41,079
good again? Because you get like, show me the receipts where you said

1453
01:36:41,079 --> 01:36:43,640
they were going to be four in
the East. If you just want to

1454
01:36:43,640 --> 01:36:46,800
assume they're sustainable, what makes me
uneasy about this. I'm not worried about

1455
01:36:46,840 --> 01:36:51,640
the injuries there. They could still
win forty something games even if Kenba's left

1456
01:36:51,680 --> 01:36:57,760
knee is shot. I just they
really leaned into offense, which made sense

1457
01:36:57,960 --> 01:37:01,079
given how their playoff series against the
Hawks unfold. But you're banking a lot

1458
01:37:01,399 --> 01:37:05,880
on the defense, sustaining without what
was your most important perimeter defender, and

1459
01:37:05,920 --> 01:37:09,960
Reggie Bullock. You've not decided if
that's gonna be RJ Barrett. He's looked

1460
01:37:10,039 --> 01:37:14,880
great on defense in preseason. I
just, are you gonna get as lucky

1461
01:37:14,920 --> 01:37:18,560
with opponent three point shooting this year? I could see. I could see

1462
01:37:20,119 --> 01:37:26,359
a scenario where they miss this.
But it's not dooming gloom just because the

1463
01:37:26,359 --> 01:37:30,279
East is better. The roster's just
a little bit tilted too far towards offense

1464
01:37:30,399 --> 01:37:34,000
first personnel. But look, if
Mitchell Robinson's healthy, and if Julius Randall

1465
01:37:34,199 --> 01:37:38,279
is let's say he's not, Let's
say second team All NBA shouldn't be the

1466
01:37:38,319 --> 01:37:42,000
standard. If top twenty five top
thirty. Is the new Julius Randall,

1467
01:37:42,399 --> 01:37:45,000
You're golden. I think RJ.
Barrett's gonna explode. I am so high

1468
01:37:45,000 --> 01:37:48,479
on RJ. Barrett, it's probably
not even funny at this point. I

1469
01:37:48,520 --> 01:37:51,279
would like I hope they've run units
where he gets more on ball reps.

1470
01:37:51,279 --> 01:37:54,880
I've seen a lot of him in
the corner during the preseason. He's a

1471
01:37:54,880 --> 01:37:57,960
good enough three point shooter and mover
off the ball where I guess that doesn't

1472
01:37:58,000 --> 01:38:00,479
matter, you know, splitting hairs
here, picking me over. I feel

1473
01:38:00,560 --> 01:38:03,880
pretty good about it. I am
just curious, like, does this team's

1474
01:38:03,880 --> 01:38:08,920
identity flip at all? Because they
really and it's not like they got rid

1475
01:38:08,920 --> 01:38:12,439
of all these different defenders, but
you've now decided, like Evan four days

1476
01:38:12,479 --> 01:38:14,399
not good on defense. I know
people have said, like he's better than

1477
01:38:14,399 --> 01:38:17,560
expected, Kemma Walker tries, but
he was bad last year. We don't

1478
01:38:17,600 --> 01:38:20,760
know how much of that has to
do with the knees. Derrek Rows was

1479
01:38:20,800 --> 01:38:24,479
better than expected last year. How
good is Nordo's Noell going to be as

1480
01:38:24,479 --> 01:38:27,760
good as he was last year?
Is Mitchell Robinson fully healthy? Julius Randall

1481
01:38:27,800 --> 01:38:30,359
had a career year defensively, Yeah, you can assume some of that's going

1482
01:38:30,399 --> 01:38:33,880
to translate to this season, but
there were just a lot of when you

1483
01:38:33,880 --> 01:38:39,119
look at players, including Alec Burks's
fourth quarter performance last season, there were

1484
01:38:39,119 --> 01:38:43,439
a lot of players that just had
these anomalous seasons relative to the rest of

1485
01:38:43,439 --> 01:38:47,760
their career, and you are dealing
with some ambiguity when that happens. I

1486
01:38:47,800 --> 01:38:50,520
tend to think that the team we
saw I don't want to say the team,

1487
01:38:50,560 --> 01:38:55,960
because I feel like they're different.
Even though they didn't overhaul the roster,

1488
01:38:56,000 --> 01:38:59,039
I still feel like they're different.
But when you look at the individuals,

1489
01:38:59,479 --> 01:39:02,319
I think that they were more authentic
than not. I don't expect this

1490
01:39:02,399 --> 01:39:06,319
huge drop off, but this also
wasn't like a no brainer for me.

1491
01:39:08,479 --> 01:39:12,960
It feels like there's a lot of
potential for things to go wrong. You

1492
01:39:13,000 --> 01:39:17,159
know, Kemba Walker's knee, the
three point defense, and Julius Randall regressations

1493
01:39:17,199 --> 01:39:21,520
since so many of the shots that
he took were just such a high degree

1494
01:39:21,560 --> 01:39:27,479
of difficulty, the baseline fadeaway jumpers
and all that. Mitchell Robinson and nerlans

1495
01:39:27,479 --> 01:39:30,600
Nowell have not exactly been the picture
of health, and I was still over

1496
01:39:31,239 --> 01:39:34,600
I had them at forty four wins
because there's just so much talent on this

1497
01:39:34,640 --> 01:39:39,600
team. I do think, you
know, as you mentioned Julius Randall as

1498
01:39:39,640 --> 01:39:44,920
a top twenty five thirty player,
they're golded and there's a very real chance

1499
01:39:44,920 --> 01:39:48,399
of that happening. Mitchell Robinson is
healthy right now, and if he's able

1500
01:39:48,439 --> 01:39:54,119
to make the impact that he has
in the past in smaller roles and smaller

1501
01:39:54,159 --> 01:39:59,000
minutes, that's huge. Obie Toppen
looked more capable, Alec Burks looked more

1502
01:39:59,039 --> 01:40:02,079
capable last year. Forty is a
great offensive addition. RJ. Barrett has

1503
01:40:02,119 --> 01:40:08,199
so much upside. Derek Rose totally
revitalized that team during the second half of

1504
01:40:08,239 --> 01:40:11,600
the year on offense. There's a
lot to like here, just as there's

1505
01:40:11,640 --> 01:40:15,720
a lot of room for concern.
So I never felt confident in this one,

1506
01:40:15,880 --> 01:40:18,039
and I also had no clue where
the line was going to be set,

1507
01:40:18,720 --> 01:40:21,520
so I landed at forty four.
And I do think that it's one

1508
01:40:21,560 --> 01:40:26,640
of those teams that isn't comfortably in
the playoff picture, but is fully in

1509
01:40:26,720 --> 01:40:30,479
it throughout the season. And there's
something too, even though they have players

1510
01:40:30,479 --> 01:40:31,680
who are injury risks on their team, and also you can ask him,

1511
01:40:31,720 --> 01:40:34,359
Joy's random play as much as he
did last season, Like that was he

1512
01:40:34,399 --> 01:40:40,359
played an insane amount of minutes.
Kids can run this team a ground and

1513
01:40:40,439 --> 01:40:43,720
sort of just know that there's a
guy behind every person. The only play.

1514
01:40:43,880 --> 01:40:46,279
There are two players they can't afford
to lose, and it's it's RJ.

1515
01:40:46,359 --> 01:40:50,239
Barrett Julie Random because r J.
Barrett is to me, they're single

1516
01:40:50,239 --> 01:40:53,680
most important defender this year. I'm
not saying he's gonna be their best,

1517
01:40:54,000 --> 01:40:56,960
but you need someone who can check. You know, he's guard Bradley Beale

1518
01:40:57,039 --> 01:40:59,359
against the Wizards and he did.
I thought he did a pretty good job.

1519
01:40:59,520 --> 01:41:01,479
Like you need him to be that
guy, and if he's injured,

1520
01:41:01,960 --> 01:41:04,600
you don't have that, like is
it you know, are they gonna play

1521
01:41:04,680 --> 01:41:09,319
Duce McBride. He's also smaller.
Quentin Grimes smaller than RJ as well,

1522
01:41:10,079 --> 01:41:13,039
so there are injury and then Julius
Randalls just because you don't have you can

1523
01:41:13,119 --> 01:41:16,000
replace him with Obi Toppin, but
like, that's Julius Randall is He's here's

1524
01:41:16,039 --> 01:41:18,640
your star right now, so they
can't. And I guess even then,

1525
01:41:18,680 --> 01:41:23,640
it's like, well what if Kemba
is Kemba like or like eighty percent of

1526
01:41:23,680 --> 01:41:27,279
the Kemba that Boston thought they were
acquiring, which is still possible. There's

1527
01:41:27,279 --> 01:41:30,880
a path to you still being fine. It's just the team's depth is a

1528
01:41:30,920 --> 01:41:34,199
real bood for them, because I
think that they That's not my question their

1529
01:41:34,279 --> 01:41:40,279
injuries or even their offensive talent anymore. It's just is there was any of

1530
01:41:40,279 --> 01:41:43,119
the last season an illusion? And
I think you have to focus on defense

1531
01:41:43,199 --> 01:41:45,239
given the way that this roster is
now built, and if it's not.

1532
01:41:45,600 --> 01:41:48,359
Look, I'm not saying they need
to be top five events. If they're

1533
01:41:48,600 --> 01:41:54,680
If they're fourteenth, fifteenth in defensive
efficiency and their offenses is better, like

1534
01:41:55,199 --> 01:41:59,720
as improved as much as it looks
like it improved on paper, they might

1535
01:41:59,760 --> 01:42:01,760
be. They might blow this projection
out of the water where we're wondering,

1536
01:42:01,760 --> 01:42:04,000
Oh, where they're like fifth,
they're sixth, They're seventh in the East.

1537
01:42:04,359 --> 01:42:08,119
They could finish fourth again. If
you told me that they were the

1538
01:42:08,119 --> 01:42:13,520
team that finished just below Milwaukee and
Brooklyn and they outpaced Atlanta for number three,

1539
01:42:13,680 --> 01:42:16,239
would I be mildly surprised? Sure, but I wouldn't, you know,

1540
01:42:16,359 --> 01:42:20,479
if the defense is okay, I
wouldn't be by that. I'm so

1541
01:42:20,560 --> 01:42:24,000
high in Atlanta that, but I'm
also trying to set it like there's a

1542
01:42:24,000 --> 01:42:28,720
lot of offensive talent on this team
now, and ye it just gives them

1543
01:42:28,720 --> 01:42:31,960
a lot of options. So I
kind of worry a little bit about the

1544
01:42:31,960 --> 01:42:39,000
Tibodau effect with this roster because he
has he's not too compromising on the schemes

1545
01:42:39,000 --> 01:42:42,439
he runs, and I just don't
know that the personnel fit the scheme as

1546
01:42:42,439 --> 01:42:46,960
well. This year. I look
that a defense specifically, because they still

1547
01:42:46,960 --> 01:42:49,600
like gave up a good amount of
shots at the rim last year. It's

1548
01:42:49,600 --> 01:42:53,840
just the rim protection was so great. And then also look the opponent three

1549
01:42:53,840 --> 01:42:56,520
point shooting. I do think when
you look at the way RJ. Barrett

1550
01:42:56,560 --> 01:43:00,600
defended and some of their clothesouts and
rotations, I think they were a good

1551
01:43:00,000 --> 01:43:03,000
team at defending the three point line. You don't have opponent shooting. I

1552
01:43:03,000 --> 01:43:06,680
think they were sub thirty four percent
outside of garbage time. That's not skill.

1553
01:43:06,880 --> 01:43:11,319
You didn't decide who was taking threes
all the time. You got lucky,

1554
01:43:11,600 --> 01:43:14,439
and what happens if you don't get
lucky again? Right, I don't

1555
01:43:14,439 --> 01:43:18,680
know. And you're dedicating more big
minutes to more offensive sieves, you know,

1556
01:43:18,840 --> 01:43:23,319
just with the addition of Fournier,
who isn't the worst defender of the

1557
01:43:23,399 --> 01:43:28,119
NBA, but isn't an asset.
But anyway, gonna move on to the

1558
01:43:28,119 --> 01:43:30,640
Oklahoma City thunder. Do we do
we even have to spend time on them?

1559
01:43:31,000 --> 01:43:34,199
They kind of wanted to group them
in the Magic together because they're both

1560
01:43:34,199 --> 01:43:40,159
at twenty two and a half.
So do you have them over or under?

1561
01:43:40,640 --> 01:43:43,800
I had both of those under,
both of those over. Sorry,

1562
01:43:43,880 --> 01:43:46,039
I had both of those under.
So okay, let's go one by one.

1563
01:43:46,359 --> 01:43:49,560
So, oh yeah, Oklahoma City, yours start with them? You

1564
01:43:49,560 --> 01:43:53,439
you did? I'm sorry, I'm
outing you on this one. You said

1565
01:43:53,800 --> 01:44:00,600
that Oklahoma City has more you,
No, you has more potential all Stars?

1566
01:44:00,800 --> 01:44:03,199
Then what was the team I forgot? I came in Spurs. You

1567
01:44:03,239 --> 01:44:06,359
said, Oklavisity is more potential All
Stars this year than the Spurs. Now,

1568
01:44:06,399 --> 01:44:09,880
I'll tell you no, I didn't
say this year. I did not

1569
01:44:10,000 --> 01:44:14,680
say this year, just in general
in terms of their their rebuilding process that

1570
01:44:15,039 --> 01:44:18,199
on the roster right now, that's
less egregious. I would also say your

1571
01:44:18,239 --> 01:44:21,239
pathway to be right this season,
now that they think about it, actually

1572
01:44:21,279 --> 01:44:25,720
isn't too far fetched because you would
just be saying Shay is an All Star.

1573
01:44:26,119 --> 01:44:28,840
No one else on the Spurs is, and that's really not making that

1574
01:44:28,920 --> 01:44:31,359
much of a leap because that is
set up the most likely outcome. I

1575
01:44:31,399 --> 01:44:35,039
think, Yeah, no, I
had them over because I have them at

1576
01:44:35,039 --> 01:44:39,640
twenty five wins. Still nothing too
impressive. But I do think that we're

1577
01:44:39,640 --> 01:44:44,159
talking about shay Gil just Alexander as
an All NBA candidate this year, not

1578
01:44:44,239 --> 01:44:46,439
just an All Star candidate. Awesome. Do you know who was also an

1579
01:44:46,439 --> 01:44:53,920
All NBA candidate last year and his
team was still pretty bad shay Gil Justi

1580
01:44:54,039 --> 01:44:57,760
Alexander. Yeah, that's my point, absolutely, But you also have more

1581
01:44:57,760 --> 01:45:01,760
stabilizing presences now. Derek As is
there if he lasts the season there,

1582
01:45:02,359 --> 01:45:08,279
Poku has more experience. Lu Dort
is still there, and then Darius Baisley,

1583
01:45:08,319 --> 01:45:13,439
who I do really like the scoring
upside there. Josh Giddy if he

1584
01:45:13,520 --> 01:45:16,840
can make any sort of impact during
his rookie season, that's a benefit to

1585
01:45:16,880 --> 01:45:21,239
this team. I don't think it's
going to be a good team, but

1586
01:45:21,279 --> 01:45:26,640
there are just so many intriguing players
here, led by one of the best

1587
01:45:26,680 --> 01:45:31,600
players you're going to find on a
full fledged rebuilding team that I do think

1588
01:45:31,640 --> 01:45:36,119
that there is material upside. Now
that's said, that could all go to

1589
01:45:36,159 --> 01:45:42,920
hell when Shay gets shut down if
they trade favors, like that's the risk

1590
01:45:43,039 --> 01:45:46,039
here. But do you even need
to do that when you have roughly four

1591
01:45:46,159 --> 01:45:50,800
hundred and eighteen million first round draft
picks in the next year and a half.

1592
01:45:50,800 --> 01:45:55,039
You don't. But this team I
think has a sour taste in his

1593
01:45:55,159 --> 01:45:57,840
mouth because of how the lottery played
out this year where they dropped and they

1594
01:45:57,840 --> 01:46:00,680
didn't get Houston's pick. This is
I'm gonna I want to break it down

1595
01:46:01,159 --> 01:46:05,560
and look, the cynic in me
is gonna say, if they go better

1596
01:46:05,600 --> 01:46:09,760
than two and eight to start the
season, shankill Jo Dander's getting tated to

1597
01:46:09,800 --> 01:46:13,319
preserve the tank. He can't because
of the extension. But you get you

1598
01:46:13,319 --> 01:46:21,720
get my gist that I rank who
who are okay Sy's top five players?

1599
01:46:21,720 --> 01:46:28,760
Shay is obviously number one, Lou
Dorrick, Darius Baisley, Derek Favers would

1600
01:46:28,840 --> 01:46:33,760
round out the clear top four,
and I don't know on five. It

1601
01:46:33,880 --> 01:46:39,159
could be Giddy, it could be
Maladon, it could be Poku, it

1602
01:46:39,199 --> 01:46:43,000
could be ken Rich Williams. Thank
you for mentioning him. Kendris Williams is

1603
01:46:43,399 --> 01:46:45,720
I think he's my answer for the
fifth best player right now. But I

1604
01:46:45,720 --> 01:46:49,039
think he also has less upside than
the other people I'm mentioning. I just

1605
01:46:49,359 --> 01:46:54,039
I like Darius Baisley two. I
like that top four. Yeah, it's

1606
01:46:54,159 --> 01:46:56,920
but they're not good. It's just
no, they're not good yet. Where

1607
01:46:57,000 --> 01:47:00,520
is the like, where's the offense? The scoring? All offense on this

1608
01:47:00,520 --> 01:47:04,800
team coming from barred under twenty games
though, I'm not saying they're gonna it's

1609
01:47:05,600 --> 01:47:12,439
one of the rosters this bad.
I just there's so much uncertainty surrounding after

1610
01:47:12,520 --> 01:47:15,520
Shay excuse me, and you just
have yet Giddy. He's like a really

1611
01:47:15,520 --> 01:47:17,039
good pastor and he's better on defense
than I expected too, by the way,

1612
01:47:17,279 --> 01:47:19,920
But like where's and the same with
Maladon, Like where's the scoring?

1613
01:47:19,960 --> 01:47:24,760
You need Poku to pop? He's
gonna average like twenty a game out of

1614
01:47:24,800 --> 01:47:29,880
necessity. But even when he was
having like a higher scoring clothes to the

1615
01:47:30,000 --> 01:47:33,000
end of the year last year,
it wasn't efficiently. He still together a

1616
01:47:33,000 --> 01:47:35,399
lot of shots, and I think
what happens is they don't have a lot

1617
01:47:35,399 --> 01:47:39,239
of players in place to simplify the
game for everybody else. I think having

1618
01:47:39,239 --> 01:47:43,399
Giddy and Shay and Maladan will help
that. But there's just like, I

1619
01:47:43,439 --> 01:47:46,000
don't even not I think that the
shape heart's a big one because he's gonna

1620
01:47:46,000 --> 01:47:51,439
he's he's reached the level at which
he's gonna draw enough defensive attention that he

1621
01:47:51,520 --> 01:47:56,039
is making life a lot easier on
everyone else. I just think that this

1622
01:47:56,119 --> 01:47:59,239
is gonna end up being the worst
team in the NBA, and that the

1623
01:47:59,359 --> 01:48:01,399
maybe the Magic the Magic of the
Thunder gonna be one of the worst teams

1624
01:48:01,399 --> 01:48:04,000
in the NBA. And if you
do, I have them finishing fifteenth in

1625
01:48:04,039 --> 01:48:08,279
the West here, So all right, So here's my thing. Fifteen in

1626
01:48:08,319 --> 01:48:11,800
the West won seventeen games last year. In the seventeen I just think it's

1627
01:48:11,840 --> 01:48:14,399
more spread out this season. Yeah, I don't. I don't know.

1628
01:48:14,600 --> 01:48:16,760
But if I could see the Kings
and that Timberwolves just like poaching wins from

1629
01:48:16,760 --> 01:48:21,239
them, I think the Warriors are
a little bit better. So I'm comfortably

1630
01:48:21,319 --> 01:48:25,760
under here. I'm not saying that
I think John Hollinger had them. Hollinger

1631
01:48:25,800 --> 01:48:30,039
had them at like like thirteen or
something. I think they'll win. If

1632
01:48:30,079 --> 01:48:32,359
the over underwars like fifteen, I
might take the over. But I think

1633
01:48:32,399 --> 01:48:36,680
they're gonna win fewer than twenty five
games. And apparently you also think that

1634
01:48:36,760 --> 01:48:40,960
about the Orlando Magic, who are
likewise set at twenty two and a half.

1635
01:48:41,119 --> 01:48:44,840
Their offensive situations even worse. It
is sorry, my voice is squeaking.

1636
01:48:44,880 --> 01:48:47,439
I love Archie Hampton game is so
smooth. He looks more confident this

1637
01:48:47,520 --> 01:48:50,880
year. If anyone's watched Wendell Carter
Junior, the proud owner of a four

1638
01:48:50,960 --> 01:48:55,920
year, fifty million dollars extension both
him and Vernon Garret Junior. Apparently,

1639
01:48:56,159 --> 01:48:58,920
you guys will never know that joke
because I edited it out. However,

1640
01:48:59,039 --> 01:49:03,159
it's funny. It's inside joke.
Now he Wendel counter Junior just looks free

1641
01:49:03,239 --> 01:49:06,279
in Orlando. Still needs to look
at the basket more. You don't want

1642
01:49:06,319 --> 01:49:10,920
your primary center, especially if you
want to run stuff through him taking fewer

1643
01:49:10,920 --> 01:49:13,800
than ten shots for thirty six minutes
like he did during the preseason. But

1644
01:49:13,840 --> 01:49:15,319
he hits some threes, put the
ball on the floor and made some really

1645
01:49:15,399 --> 01:49:18,760
nice passes there. There are players
to like on this roster, and I

1646
01:49:18,760 --> 01:49:23,279
think they're gonna be a fun team
to watch. You don't have your best

1647
01:49:23,279 --> 01:49:26,520
their second best player, and definitely
your best defender Jonathan Isaac When is he

1648
01:49:26,560 --> 01:49:29,279
coming back from a torn left acel? I think Mark L. Folts is

1649
01:49:29,279 --> 01:49:31,800
important to your defensive setup. He
hasn't come back from a tourn left acel.

1650
01:49:32,640 --> 01:49:35,520
Your just rotation is all over the
place. It's just you have these

1651
01:49:35,520 --> 01:49:39,640
guards and R. J. Hampton
and colanthe plush Jalon Suggs. How much

1652
01:49:39,680 --> 01:49:43,159
license over the offense or responsibility does
Jal and Suggs have? Is he gonna

1653
01:49:43,199 --> 01:49:45,479
lead your team and assist by necessity? Because that's not really Colanthies are RJ.

1654
01:49:45,560 --> 01:49:48,720
Hampton's game and you don't have Folts
to start the season. Are you

1655
01:49:48,760 --> 01:49:53,680
playing the veterans or are you trading
the Veterans and Gary Harris and Terrence Ross?

1656
01:49:53,840 --> 01:49:57,920
Does Gary Harris even help your team
at this point? Conceptually? Sure?

1657
01:49:58,119 --> 01:50:00,880
But the Gary Harris in the past
two years has not been a particularly

1658
01:50:00,960 --> 01:50:04,439
helpful player. What is happening with
the center rotation? They've tried to play

1659
01:50:04,439 --> 01:50:09,439
Mobama on Wendel Carter Junior together.
I applaud Jamal Jamal Mosley, head coach,

1660
01:50:09,479 --> 01:50:12,079
for getting weird. I don't know
if that works, but it seems

1661
01:50:12,119 --> 01:50:14,920
like they really want Robin Loper's to
play which is fine. I guess he

1662
01:50:14,920 --> 01:50:17,000
helps you a little bit. What
does Chimo Keke look like? And just

1663
01:50:17,039 --> 01:50:19,680
the secondary wing rotation, Like you
have to pencil in when you look at

1664
01:50:19,720 --> 01:50:24,720
this team and how guard heavy it
is, you have to basically say that

1665
01:50:24,800 --> 01:50:28,319
one, if not both, of
Gary Harrison Terrace Ross are wings and that's

1666
01:50:28,359 --> 01:50:32,520
just not sustainable here. I don't
know what friends Wagner is. You probably

1667
01:50:32,600 --> 01:50:35,640
need to find minutes for him at
the four, which becomes a lot harder

1668
01:50:36,039 --> 01:50:40,479
if Chimokeke and Jonathan Isaac are both
healthy, which you hope they are at

1669
01:50:40,560 --> 01:50:43,880
some point. I don't think Wagner
can be a three in the I just

1670
01:50:43,880 --> 01:50:47,079
don't offense sure defense, I don't
see it. So this team, I'm

1671
01:50:47,119 --> 01:50:50,359
excited about their future. I want
to make that clear. I think if

1672
01:50:50,399 --> 01:50:54,720
I was Orlando, as soon as
they get healthy, if they look good,

1673
01:50:54,880 --> 01:50:58,920
I'm absolutely taking calls UNFOLTONII. That
might be my spiciest take here.

1674
01:50:59,319 --> 01:51:02,279
That being said, they are so
far off and it feels like they are

1675
01:51:02,359 --> 01:51:06,399
leaning into a more gradual rebuild,
which is why I'm exciting about their future

1676
01:51:06,439 --> 01:51:12,000
given what they did at the trade
deadline. So I think if you're asking

1677
01:51:12,039 --> 01:51:15,560
me which team is more likely to
hit their over. Between Oklahoma City and

1678
01:51:15,640 --> 01:51:18,079
Orlando at twenty two point five,
I might take Oklahoma City because they have

1679
01:51:18,159 --> 01:51:23,159
that all NBA guy in Shay and
also you know, Jonathan Isaac isn't healthy.

1680
01:51:23,159 --> 01:51:27,560
And Orlando it just feels like Orlando
wants to be or doesn't want to

1681
01:51:27,560 --> 01:51:30,039
be, but it's built. Okay, See, Orlando are built to be

1682
01:51:30,079 --> 01:51:31,359
the two worst teams in the NBA. That's just how I look at it.

1683
01:51:31,560 --> 01:51:35,239
They and maybe Detroit and Houston,
Like those teams are right at the

1684
01:51:35,239 --> 01:51:40,439
bottom of the barrel for me,
and I just think Orlando is so inexperienced

1685
01:51:40,479 --> 01:51:43,079
in a good way. They just
have so many flyers to try out.

1686
01:51:43,319 --> 01:51:45,960
Plus you're gonna have to work in
Folts and Isaac as they come back.

1687
01:51:45,279 --> 01:51:49,800
I would expect them to win twenty
games at most this year. Honestly,

1688
01:51:49,840 --> 01:51:54,119
The only thing I really have to
add is just the way I looked at

1689
01:51:54,119 --> 01:51:57,680
this, because I did have them
as a hesitant over at twenty four wins,

1690
01:51:57,680 --> 01:52:00,000
but it was my lowest win total
of any be A team this season.

1691
01:52:00,279 --> 01:52:05,600
So this to me was just less
about being optimistic about the roster and

1692
01:52:05,680 --> 01:52:12,640
more being pessimistic about a lot of
the top teams in the NBA's motivations or

1693
01:52:12,760 --> 01:52:16,680
ratedness, So I just I think
that this year has a lot more potential

1694
01:52:16,720 --> 01:52:21,680
than most for those true top teams
to sacrifice wins to the bottom ones,

1695
01:52:21,840 --> 01:52:26,960
where they're not just cannibalizing each other
for wins so much as getting a win

1696
01:52:27,159 --> 01:52:30,560
against the Lakers because Lebron and Anthony
Davis are both out on the same night,

1697
01:52:30,880 --> 01:52:33,880
or getting a win against the Hawks
because Trey is sitting. I think

1698
01:52:33,920 --> 01:52:38,800
there's a lot more potential for that
this season, which is why I kind

1699
01:52:38,800 --> 01:52:44,680
of flattened my entire projections out and
it created weirder situations like this where I

1700
01:52:44,760 --> 01:52:49,760
don't think Orlando is ready to be
competitive at all yet despite liking a lot

1701
01:52:49,800 --> 01:52:53,439
of the individual pieces, and yet
I still have them as as an over

1702
01:52:53,880 --> 01:52:57,960
that makes sense to me. I
totally get that Philadelphia seventy six ers set

1703
01:52:58,000 --> 01:53:00,720
at fifty point five, and they
were a comfortable under for me at forty

1704
01:53:00,760 --> 01:53:06,279
five wins, because there's no good
resolution to this Ben Simmons thing. Now

1705
01:53:06,760 --> 01:53:11,159
if he doesn't play at all and
you can't find a trade for him because

1706
01:53:11,439 --> 01:53:15,079
you can't agree on the value,
that's obviously not a good thing. If

1707
01:53:15,119 --> 01:53:17,520
he does play, what are you
getting from him? Are you getting the

1708
01:53:17,600 --> 01:53:21,960
hyper motivated I need to increase my
trade value? Are you getting the malcontent

1709
01:53:23,119 --> 01:53:25,840
I don't really want to be here, so I'm not going to try as

1710
01:53:25,840 --> 01:53:30,239
hard on defense. I just I
worry a lot about this situation regardless,

1711
01:53:30,239 --> 01:53:32,920
and even if you make a trade, you're trading it likely for a talent

1712
01:53:33,039 --> 01:53:41,079
downgrade, and then you have to
incorporate them into the system beyond that.

1713
01:53:41,800 --> 01:53:45,479
Even if I really like Seth Curry
as a guy who deserves an expanded offensive

1714
01:53:45,560 --> 01:53:50,760
role. Even if I think Tobias
Harris has moved back into the underrated camp.

1715
01:53:51,079 --> 01:53:55,880
Even if I think Joel Embiid is
an MVP frontrunner, do I trust

1716
01:53:55,960 --> 01:53:59,359
him to play an entire season?
What does this team look like if he's

1717
01:53:59,439 --> 01:54:02,800
not playing more than sixty sixty five
games? What about the depth on this

1718
01:54:02,840 --> 01:54:06,800
team? Are you trusting Tyrese Maxe? Are you trusting Shake Milton? Are

1719
01:54:06,800 --> 01:54:13,520
you trusting Matisse Table in a scalable
role? Andre Drummond is the backup center?

1720
01:54:13,600 --> 01:54:15,239
Is that going to be a positive
or a negative? At this point

1721
01:54:15,279 --> 01:54:20,439
in Drummond's career. There's just there're
way too many question marks for me with

1722
01:54:20,439 --> 01:54:26,600
this team. I said, it
might be a very dangerous playoff team because

1723
01:54:26,600 --> 01:54:31,520
a healthy EMBIID can single handedly win
a series. I don't even have anything

1724
01:54:31,560 --> 01:54:34,600
to add really there. If you
told me that Ben Simmons was gonna be

1725
01:54:34,720 --> 01:54:40,199
there all season and play I might
consider taking me over. But it's just

1726
01:54:40,239 --> 01:54:44,600
the uncertainty of will he miss time, will he be bad? If you

1727
01:54:44,680 --> 01:54:46,399
move him? What are you getting
for him? And then the other thing

1728
01:54:46,439 --> 01:54:49,680
is what if they even let's say
they just wait at let's say Bradley Beal

1729
01:54:49,720 --> 01:54:53,319
asked out of Washington, which I
think they're waiting on Damon Bradley Beal.

1730
01:54:53,359 --> 01:54:55,800
I would think Beale is more likely
to get traded than Dame. I don't

1731
01:54:55,840 --> 01:54:59,720
particularly expect either get traded at this
point. That all being said, whoever

1732
01:54:59,720 --> 01:55:01,560
you yet, you still have to
work into the roster, and I would

1733
01:55:01,680 --> 01:55:05,680
argue that's harder to do with stars
than it is with guys who are used

1734
01:55:05,680 --> 01:55:10,880
to playing accessory roles. I'm you
nailed it when you said there's too much

1735
01:55:10,920 --> 01:55:14,520
uncertainty. There are scenarios in which
they clear it, but you need him

1736
01:55:14,560 --> 01:55:18,199
being to set a career high in
minutes played slash appearances. I don't think

1737
01:55:18,239 --> 01:55:21,239
you can just assume that, especially
when they invested the contention in him,

1738
01:55:21,239 --> 01:55:27,399
you have every reason to just wait
the long term over the shorter term.

1739
01:55:27,439 --> 01:55:30,079
There's I don't feel great about this
because if Ben Simmons is still good and

1740
01:55:30,119 --> 01:55:33,680
they destroyed opponents during the regular season
with him and being on the court,

1741
01:55:33,840 --> 01:55:39,560
it's just it's all the stuff surrounding
his future. And then also just the

1742
01:55:40,279 --> 01:55:43,880
possibility that what if he actually does
this doesn't seem like his personality. What

1743
01:55:43,920 --> 01:55:46,520
if he pulls the James Harden where
he just plays so badly, did they

1744
01:55:46,520 --> 01:55:49,319
send him away from the team,
and that's not going to help his trade

1745
01:55:49,399 --> 01:55:54,239
value? So what if you either
then settle on. Like I think the

1746
01:55:54,239 --> 01:55:57,640
most likely scenarios, they lose the
Ben Simmons trade on paper because they're not

1747
01:55:57,680 --> 01:56:00,039
going to acquire a star you stay. I had to lose it by an

1748
01:56:00,039 --> 01:56:04,119
even larger margin. If something goes
wrong to start the season with Ben Simmons,

1749
01:56:04,159 --> 01:56:06,279
if he plays and boycotts it,
you have to send him home or

1750
01:56:06,319 --> 01:56:12,119
he's just bad. So I hope
that's not the case. I like Ben

1751
01:56:12,159 --> 01:56:15,119
Simmons, like the player, and
would love to see him you know,

1752
01:56:15,720 --> 01:56:17,319
it would be funny if he just
came out shooting threes like he does in

1753
01:56:17,359 --> 01:56:20,800
those workout videos. I just I
don't know how you invest in the over

1754
01:56:20,880 --> 01:56:24,960
for this team. I just don't
know how you do it. Well.

1755
01:56:25,000 --> 01:56:27,760
If Grant Ruler gets twenty five minutes
a game, then you do. And

1756
01:56:27,760 --> 01:56:30,720
also how you say a Joe as
well fair. That brings us to the

1757
01:56:30,720 --> 01:56:34,119
Phoenix Suns, who were set at
fifty one and a half. And this

1758
01:56:34,199 --> 01:56:38,319
is you. This is one of
my best bets on the list. I

1759
01:56:38,359 --> 01:56:43,279
am smashing the ever living shit out
of the over on this and this over

1760
01:56:43,600 --> 01:56:48,359
I checked has actually risen by a
win since I recorded the Phoenix Suns preview

1761
01:56:48,479 --> 01:56:51,159
and I still just have no qualms
about it. They are. They're so

1762
01:56:51,319 --> 01:56:57,119
good that my biggest qualm with their
roster is their backup center rotation just doesn't

1763
01:56:57,159 --> 01:57:00,840
seem like it can be as inventive
without Nario Sarich. And look, Dario

1764
01:57:00,880 --> 01:57:03,600
sars that he's becoming from from a
torn acl For anyone who doesn't know that

1765
01:57:04,119 --> 01:57:08,840
or forgot those minutes with him at
the five. They weren't great to close

1766
01:57:08,920 --> 01:57:12,039
the year last season. Now what
excites me about this roster though, is

1767
01:57:12,079 --> 01:57:15,560
that Yes, I will be urging
Monty Williams to try playing Cam Johnson and

1768
01:57:15,600 --> 01:57:17,600
Jay Crowder as his primary front court. Rayton's on the bench, but also

1769
01:57:18,319 --> 01:57:25,239
the internal improvement candidates, and the
Timeline podcast did a series called Internal Development

1770
01:57:25,279 --> 01:57:29,600
that was fantastic. They went deep
on five of Phoenix's most important youngsters.

1771
01:57:29,880 --> 01:57:33,479
There's a chance that Devin Booker,
Kale Bridges, DeAndre Ayton, Cam Johnson,

1772
01:57:33,560 --> 01:57:36,319
and Cameron Payne all get better because
they're still young enough. Now,

1773
01:57:36,319 --> 01:57:42,119
if you want to take the very
conservative route, the expectation should be that

1774
01:57:42,359 --> 01:57:45,119
three of those guys get better,
Eton and Bridges specifically, and then I

1775
01:57:45,119 --> 01:57:48,800
would probably just pay either Cam Johnson
or Devin Booker because Devin Booker is Devin

1776
01:57:48,840 --> 01:57:51,560
Booker. I think he would get
a lot better if they actually ran some

1777
01:57:51,680 --> 01:57:56,199
Devin Booker at the one units.
This is failing. Even if you want

1778
01:57:56,199 --> 01:57:59,640
to bake in some rest nights for
Chris Paul, maybe a little bit of

1779
01:57:59,680 --> 01:58:01,199
a drop off, which we've learned
by now. Ever since he's gone vegan,

1780
01:58:01,239 --> 01:58:04,079
maybe you really just shouldn't do that. He's missed four games combined the

1781
01:58:04,119 --> 01:58:10,680
past two regular seasons. I don't
see a scenario, barring catastrophe, that

1782
01:58:10,760 --> 01:58:15,920
they don't win like fifty five.
So if you want to hear my thoughts

1783
01:58:15,439 --> 01:58:19,000
on this one, then just rewind
like two minutes and you're good. So

1784
01:58:19,079 --> 01:58:25,399
let's move to the Portland Trailblazers because
I literally cannot add anything to that,

1785
01:58:25,479 --> 01:58:30,279
and it is exactly what I'm thinking
for that Phoenix Suns team. So seriously,

1786
01:58:30,279 --> 01:58:33,199
Portland Trailblazers forty four and a half, This is a really tricky one

1787
01:58:33,239 --> 01:58:40,239
because I just don't know what to
expect out of a Chauncey Billups lead lineup.

1788
01:58:40,960 --> 01:58:44,039
Is this suddenly going to have more
of a defensive focus. They're already

1789
01:58:44,600 --> 01:58:48,239
changing how they're running pick and roll
coverage. I think that we'll see use

1790
01:58:48,279 --> 01:58:50,600
of nurkics a little bit more involved. But is it going to come at

1791
01:58:50,600 --> 01:58:56,800
the expense of that Damian Lillard CJ
McCollum backcourt, which seems unlikely because Phillips

1792
01:58:56,920 --> 01:59:00,359
was also a point guard who controlled
the ball, and I think is going

1793
01:59:00,399 --> 01:59:01,600
to want to feature a lot of
Damian Lillard. So I just I don't

1794
01:59:01,600 --> 01:59:04,720
know what to expect there yet.
I'm not sure we really have a true

1795
01:59:04,720 --> 01:59:08,560
sense for it, even coming out
of the preseason. But I still just

1796
01:59:08,640 --> 01:59:13,479
think the talent one on this lineup
is significant enough that I still ended up

1797
01:59:13,520 --> 01:59:18,279
at forty five wins because Damian Lillard
is still good for a handful of wins

1798
01:59:18,359 --> 01:59:23,199
just by himself. McCollum is in
the same boat sometimes when he really gets

1799
01:59:23,239 --> 01:59:27,800
on a heater. I believe in
Norman Powell. Robert Covington is still a

1800
01:59:28,000 --> 01:59:31,520
tremendously useful piece, specifically as an
off ball defender. The Larry Nance Junior

1801
01:59:31,600 --> 01:59:38,960
addition so gives them a lot more
reliability when you're playing second units, whether

1802
01:59:38,960 --> 01:59:42,119
he's spending time at the four,
at the five, maybe even sometimes at

1803
01:59:42,119 --> 01:59:45,279
the three. Use of Nurka should
be more engaged this year, which probably

1804
01:59:45,319 --> 01:59:50,239
means good things for so I.
I don't think this is going to be

1805
01:59:50,279 --> 01:59:56,279
the greatest defensive team, but they
just have a lot of ways to obliterate

1806
01:59:56,319 --> 02:00:00,640
you on offense this year. I'm
just so the pathway of them being worse

1807
02:00:00,680 --> 02:00:02,920
would be dame and the preseason might
have been a red flag. The thing

1808
02:00:02,920 --> 02:00:05,399
I'll pushed back on with use of
nurk Hitch is he did mention he wanted

1809
02:00:05,439 --> 02:00:09,520
a bigger role at the end of
last season. I don't know what that

1810
02:00:09,560 --> 02:00:12,359
looks like aside from hey, maybe
just stay healthy. And I'm not saying

1811
02:00:12,359 --> 02:00:15,319
that's his fault, but let's say
get a bigger role. A friend of

1812
02:00:15,359 --> 02:00:17,760
the podcast host that we have a
take podcast, Tyre Bone Biggs, point

1813
02:00:17,760 --> 02:00:20,880
out to me to watch use of
Nurkisch because I don't watch a ton of

1814
02:00:20,880 --> 02:00:26,119
preseason basketball. I watch player possessions
and things like that. I hate preseason.

1815
02:00:26,159 --> 02:00:27,720
I just want to get that out
of the way. As someone who

1816
02:00:27,720 --> 02:00:30,479
covers the league at large, I
get if you're a fan or following or

1817
02:00:30,560 --> 02:00:32,640
covering one specific team wide. It's
so useful. I went back and watch

1818
02:00:32,680 --> 02:00:36,079
some use of Nerkich. That dude
thinks that he needs to be featured on

1819
02:00:36,239 --> 02:00:40,159
offense. I'm hoping that doesn't carry
into the regular season because that would be

1820
02:00:40,159 --> 02:00:44,359
a problem. I'm going to assume
it doesn't. Their pathway they wont at

1821
02:00:44,399 --> 02:00:46,640
a about a forty eight win pace
last year with Nurkis missing some time.

1822
02:00:46,920 --> 02:00:51,520
They didn't have Norman Powell the entire
season. What is the pathway to them

1823
02:00:51,560 --> 02:00:56,600
being worse? And it's Damian Lillar
request a trade. I don't think that

1824
02:00:56,640 --> 02:00:59,520
happens in the middle of the season, I would be shocked. So even

1825
02:00:59,520 --> 02:01:01,479
if the def bad, which by
the way, the defense was actually good

1826
02:01:01,640 --> 02:01:05,319
when used off Nurks played, and
now you have another backup big who he's

1827
02:01:05,399 --> 02:01:11,600
not the same type of backline protector. So if you want to run him

1828
02:01:11,640 --> 02:01:14,960
at center, Larry As Junior might
actually hurt your defense there. But if

1829
02:01:15,000 --> 02:01:18,039
you play him with Covington like,
there are workable things around that. Anfony

1830
02:01:18,079 --> 02:01:21,560
Simons looked a lot. He looks
like he's ready to make not a leap

1831
02:01:21,640 --> 02:01:25,000
in general. I don't know how
many minutes he gets when you're starting three

1832
02:01:25,039 --> 02:01:28,319
guards and Powell, Dame and CJ. He looks like this is the year

1833
02:01:28,319 --> 02:01:31,119
that he's going to be a better
passer. So they're top seven guys to

1834
02:01:31,199 --> 02:01:36,159
me, they feel like Givens and
Dame, Simons, McCallum, Powell,

1835
02:01:36,640 --> 02:01:41,680
Covington, Nance and Nurkics Cody Zeller. If he's health he's a fine backup

1836
02:01:41,720 --> 02:01:45,119
center. Tony Snell hits three's when
he's healthy, defends his butt off.

1837
02:01:46,680 --> 02:01:48,600
Yeah, it doesn't miss a free
throw, don't ask him put the ball

1838
02:01:48,600 --> 02:01:50,840
on the floor. That's fine,
you don't need them too. I'm very

1839
02:01:51,920 --> 02:01:55,880
interested to see if we see your
little can stay healthy. I feel like

1840
02:01:55,880 --> 02:01:59,039
he would give like a lot of
zip to this team, like just a

1841
02:01:59,039 --> 02:02:01,279
lot of those hustle play maybe help
you on the glass. Some give you

1842
02:02:01,319 --> 02:02:04,439
if you want to downsize a little
bit can help you on defense. There.

1843
02:02:05,239 --> 02:02:08,800
I don't think he should be like
defending true wings, but if you

1844
02:02:08,800 --> 02:02:11,159
want, like you know, I
would say, if you want to run

1845
02:02:11,199 --> 02:02:14,560
Larry Nance Junior at the at the
five, maybe you should look at playing

1846
02:02:14,920 --> 02:02:16,000
Roco and this year a little to
get or to see what that does through

1847
02:02:16,000 --> 02:02:20,119
your defense or Roco and Tony Snell
of course, So why is this just

1848
02:02:20,159 --> 02:02:25,000
feels like incredibly low? Is it
the unknownness of the Chauncy billips Hire,

1849
02:02:25,039 --> 02:02:29,119
which I guess, fine, why
would he make a roster that I would

1850
02:02:29,119 --> 02:02:32,479
just argue the top seven this season
is better than their top seven last season

1851
02:02:32,520 --> 02:02:36,439
by virtue of Simon's just probably isn't
gonna be worse. I don't was he

1852
02:02:36,479 --> 02:02:40,199
even in their top seven last year? And now you have Larry Nance Junior,

1853
02:02:40,319 --> 02:02:43,399
who just makes all the sense in
the world for this team. Why

1854
02:02:43,399 --> 02:02:46,680
are they getting like four or five
wins worse? Yeah, I think the

1855
02:02:46,720 --> 02:02:51,920
only reasonable answer is just too much
of an adjustment period under a new head

1856
02:02:51,920 --> 02:02:57,680
coach after a lot of continuity under
Terry Stotts. But I would be shocked

1857
02:02:57,680 --> 02:03:00,760
if this wasn't playing like a fifty
win team in the second half of the

1858
02:03:00,800 --> 02:03:02,279
season. I was down at forty
five because I think there's a little bit

1859
02:03:02,319 --> 02:03:05,800
more of that adjustment period where they
could sacrifice some games they should have won,

1860
02:03:05,880 --> 02:03:10,199
just trying to make sure they're all
on the same page throughout the rest

1861
02:03:10,199 --> 02:03:14,720
of the season. But this team, in terms of talent, in terms

1862
02:03:14,760 --> 02:03:19,119
of ability, all that should clearly
be at a higher line, and it's

1863
02:03:19,239 --> 02:03:24,159
you know, maybe they're just there. They always have these like unnecessarily stressful

1864
02:03:24,159 --> 02:03:27,439
fourth quarters. Maybe more of those
don't tilt in their favor. I won't

1865
02:03:27,439 --> 02:03:30,119
even predict that because Damian Lillard exists. And the final thing before we move

1866
02:03:30,159 --> 02:03:32,920
on, Seezy McCollum, before he
got injured last year, was going to

1867
02:03:32,960 --> 02:03:36,039
make the All Star team, but
was averaging like twenty seven five, shooting

1868
02:03:36,079 --> 02:03:39,800
fifty plus percent on two's, hitting
off the dribble, threes left and right.

1869
02:03:40,199 --> 02:03:42,720
I don't know if I fancy this
team a contender. I don't think

1870
02:03:42,760 --> 02:03:45,439
they've done enough for Damian Lillard to
stay there long term if he really wants

1871
02:03:45,479 --> 02:03:50,520
to be on a championship or a
bust roster. But I view them as

1872
02:03:50,560 --> 02:03:54,640
a rock solid playoff team. I
might have had them only at forty five

1873
02:03:54,680 --> 02:03:57,039
wins, which is granted, is
still and over, but they are my

1874
02:03:57,119 --> 02:04:00,039
number four in the West. Wow, you really did disperse those wins,

1875
02:04:00,239 --> 02:04:04,800
yep. Which brings us to the
Sacramento Kings, who were set at thirty

1876
02:04:04,840 --> 02:04:08,880
six and a half, and you
are up first on this one. I

1877
02:04:08,920 --> 02:04:13,199
went under. I just I love
a lot of their individual players there.

1878
02:04:13,279 --> 02:04:15,520
I think they eventually trade Buddy Healed, though, I also and I spoke

1879
02:04:15,560 --> 02:04:19,079
with this when I talked with Greg
Whistling, You're from the King's Herald about

1880
02:04:19,079 --> 02:04:23,399
Sacramento, he disagreed he doesn't think
that the Kings will become sellers, that

1881
02:04:23,399 --> 02:04:26,479
they're more built for a consolidation trade. I agree, and if they're the

1882
02:04:26,479 --> 02:04:30,079
team that trades for Ben Simmons,
I would want to revise this pick.

1883
02:04:30,800 --> 02:04:35,079
I still think that they're I don't
want to say the rudderless, but they're

1884
02:04:35,079 --> 02:04:41,119
still sort of just wandering somewhere in
that like sub middle of the Western Conference.

1885
02:04:41,159 --> 02:04:43,840
And if that consolidation. Trade isn't
out there because maybe there was a

1886
02:04:43,920 --> 02:04:47,680
star. Market just doesn't develop.
If Biel doesn't request out, if Dame

1887
02:04:47,720 --> 02:04:51,039
doesn't request out, if no one's
willing to pony up or even come close

1888
02:04:51,079 --> 02:04:55,159
to meeting the asking price of Philly
for Ben Simmons, maybe this is the

1889
02:04:55,199 --> 02:04:58,000
year that we don't get like that
huge name being moved, and one are

1890
02:04:58,000 --> 02:05:00,279
the odds if that big name gets
moved, that they are being moved to

1891
02:05:00,319 --> 02:05:03,520
Sacramento. So I could see that
moving Harrison Barnes and getting worse. I

1892
02:05:03,520 --> 02:05:06,720
could see them moving Buddy Healed and
getting worse. I could see Marvin Bagley

1893
02:05:06,760 --> 02:05:11,479
being additioned by subtraction if they move
him. I could also see him being

1894
02:05:11,479 --> 02:05:15,720
a helpful player this year. I
don't like their wing rotation. Harrison Barnes

1895
02:05:15,760 --> 02:05:16,560
is not a wing to me.
He had like one of the best seasons

1896
02:05:16,600 --> 02:05:19,119
of his career last year, playing
a lot of four. I view Mohrkless

1897
02:05:19,199 --> 02:05:21,720
is a four. How many minutes
and Lewis came going to give you?

1898
02:05:21,720 --> 02:05:26,560
You still believe in Robert Woodard.
I'm not out, but and it's not

1899
02:05:26,640 --> 02:05:30,159
someone I'm gonna harp on either.
I'm not as optimistic as you was.

1900
02:05:30,159 --> 02:05:32,319
I guess the best way to put
it, I hope they play three guard

1901
02:05:32,399 --> 02:05:36,399
lineups with Davy On, Mitchell,
Terrys, Howibert, darn Fox. Fox

1902
02:05:36,520 --> 02:05:40,960
is a legitimate star. I think
Haliburton has a path to start him.

1903
02:05:41,000 --> 02:05:43,800
I don't know that he gets there
this season, but he has a path.

1904
02:05:43,800 --> 02:05:45,279
People who are just pendeling him as
like this glue guy. No,

1905
02:05:45,479 --> 02:05:47,960
he was a top three rookie last
year. He does a little bit of

1906
02:05:48,000 --> 02:05:53,119
everything, and he's more. Yeah, he packs more on offense, and

1907
02:05:53,159 --> 02:05:55,920
I think people give him credit for
so I'll leave that there. It's just

1908
02:05:56,039 --> 02:05:59,880
ever. Shawn Holmes is good,
Tristan Thompson's a fine backup center, Alex

1909
02:06:00,079 --> 02:06:02,720
lenn is big. That's fun.
I just you're in a tough questern conference,

1910
02:06:02,760 --> 02:06:08,319
and I think there's the potential for
you to move as a seller two

1911
02:06:08,359 --> 02:06:12,359
players who are important to you winning
games right now in Buddy Heald and Harrison

1912
02:06:12,399 --> 02:06:15,000
Barnes. I'm not guestimating that's what
happens. My official prediction would be at

1913
02:06:15,039 --> 02:06:17,920
least one of them is moved as
part of a package. Again, where

1914
02:06:17,960 --> 02:06:25,439
the Kings aren't getting this hugely helpful
immediately return thirty seven is just they're not

1915
02:06:25,479 --> 02:06:29,079
built. They're not built to end
their playoff droute this year in my homeble

1916
02:06:29,079 --> 02:06:32,319
opinion, and I think maybe this
is the year at the front office says

1917
02:06:32,359 --> 02:06:35,680
okay, like we need to stop
trying to straddle this weird sub middle ground

1918
02:06:35,880 --> 02:06:41,000
and we'll lean a little bit further
into the longer haul. I had them

1919
02:06:41,039 --> 02:06:44,399
at thirty nine wins, still outside
the playoff picture, so I was over

1920
02:06:45,079 --> 02:06:48,520
and I think the only real discrepancy
and how we're thinking and this is a

1921
02:06:48,560 --> 02:06:54,279
little bit predicated on them actually playing
those Fox Mitchell Haliburton lineups, which isn't

1922
02:06:54,279 --> 02:06:59,119
a sure thing, but it makes
sense and it would add so much opportunity

1923
02:06:59,159 --> 02:07:02,640
on offense. Will getting Mitchell who
looks ready to make an immediate impact as

1924
02:07:02,920 --> 02:07:08,720
a defender as a rookie, which
is a rare thing to do. All

1925
02:07:08,760 --> 02:07:13,720
that needs to happen, But I
just I think Fox takes the leap this

1926
02:07:13,800 --> 02:07:18,640
year. It has felt like the
game is slowing down for him pretty significantly,

1927
02:07:19,039 --> 02:07:24,760
which is quite useful for a player
who operates at warp speed. I

1928
02:07:24,520 --> 02:07:29,399
just I think he's seeing enough to
start making life a lot easier for developing

1929
02:07:29,399 --> 02:07:31,920
players around him. Healed. We
know that he's an elite shooter, elite

1930
02:07:31,920 --> 02:07:36,960
floor spacer. Rashaun Holmes is going
to make a huge impact, and I

1931
02:07:38,000 --> 02:07:44,039
think he's the primary beneficiary of the
game slowing down for Fox. It's purely

1932
02:07:44,079 --> 02:07:48,079
belief in his development because the flaws
that you mentioned definitely exists, and that's

1933
02:07:48,079 --> 02:07:53,600
why the leap isn't even more substantial. There are depth concerns, for sure.

1934
02:07:53,640 --> 02:07:58,720
There are potential concerns about trades,
whether they are consolidation trades or just

1935
02:07:59,039 --> 02:08:01,439
moving off those better and pieces,
But I just I think Fox is that

1936
02:08:01,439 --> 02:08:05,760
guy this year. My highest phrase
would be this might have been my least

1937
02:08:05,800 --> 02:08:09,479
comfortable under. You know won that
the sub twenty five win teams. I

1938
02:08:09,479 --> 02:08:11,880
think when you take the under,
there there's always that inherent risk. But

1939
02:08:11,920 --> 02:08:16,079
this was one of the toughest unders
and the I want to echo and I've

1940
02:08:16,119 --> 02:08:18,560
I've said this about Fox over the
past few years. I feel like he's

1941
02:08:18,640 --> 02:08:22,199
both now the calm and the storm
for their offense, where you mentioned like

1942
02:08:22,239 --> 02:08:26,680
the frenetic pace that yet, but
things have slowed down for him to the

1943
02:08:26,680 --> 02:08:31,039
point where he can really manipulate and
control the defense. I really liked my

1944
02:08:31,079 --> 02:08:33,039
warp speed line, but I thought
yours was better, so kudos to you.

1945
02:08:33,279 --> 02:08:37,560
Warp speed is always a fantastic line, but that's just a compar that's

1946
02:08:37,600 --> 02:08:41,479
Fox is just like, I don't
know that we know someone who can like

1947
02:08:41,640 --> 02:08:45,800
changes the pace that starkly, like
even you know, like who who else

1948
02:08:45,840 --> 02:08:46,920
can do that? I don't know. I'm sure there's someone, I'm just

1949
02:08:46,920 --> 02:08:50,800
not thinking of them right now,
but like Russ has never been like that

1950
02:08:50,880 --> 02:08:54,520
calm yannest, isn't it like that, that element of calm? And I

1951
02:08:54,520 --> 02:09:00,359
think Darren Fox has it. I
agree with you, san Antonio Spurs nine

1952
02:09:00,359 --> 02:09:03,000
and a half. I did also
go over here. I had them at

1953
02:09:03,079 --> 02:09:09,359
thirty two wins, largely because I
am that high on Derek White. I

1954
02:09:09,359 --> 02:09:13,880
think the shooting is for real,
that he is the closest thing that this

1955
02:09:13,920 --> 02:09:18,199
team has to a star. But
then there are just a ton of good,

1956
02:09:18,279 --> 02:09:22,399
not great pieces who are coached by
Greg Popovitch, who I just I

1957
02:09:22,479 --> 02:09:28,319
never want to completely count him out, but Jako Purtle, super impactful defender,

1958
02:09:28,800 --> 02:09:33,439
Doug McDermott, impactful offensive player,
Thaddeus Young, great veteran presence,

1959
02:09:33,520 --> 02:09:37,760
Devin Vassell. I think we see
a significant lead from him, Kelton Johnson

1960
02:09:37,800 --> 02:09:39,920
can create offense from the wing,
fill a lot of different roles. The

1961
02:09:41,039 --> 02:09:45,600
Jante Murray continues to grow each season. If we get anything out of Josh

1962
02:09:45,600 --> 02:09:50,199
Primo, then this rotation is that
much deeper during his rookie season. I

1963
02:09:50,279 --> 02:09:54,920
just I like a lot of the
pieces here, and I think cohesively they

1964
02:09:54,039 --> 02:09:58,600
make sense even if they don't have
that true star that pushes them over the

1965
02:09:58,640 --> 02:10:03,159
top against a lot of the teams
that are going to out talent them on

1966
02:10:03,199 --> 02:10:07,760
a nightly basis. Yeah, they
certainly offensive creation after losing the Rosa to

1967
02:10:07,760 --> 02:10:09,920
the Patty Mills could be an issue
for them. That's why I'm really hoping

1968
02:10:09,920 --> 02:10:13,079
they give Josh Primo a chance as
a rookie, which would be against their

1969
02:10:13,199 --> 02:10:16,119
MO. I also probably wouldn't once
again, so it's rebuilding against their m

1970
02:10:16,520 --> 02:10:20,039
Gotta add that, right, I
mean, are they rebuilding or are they

1971
02:10:20,039 --> 02:10:24,479
trying to straddle the middle ground until
pav Fitsch leaves And also, once straight

1972
02:10:24,520 --> 02:10:26,119
Jones is health, they want to
see him get minutes. But I'm with

1973
02:10:26,279 --> 02:10:31,439
everything you said essentially. I also
think what does concern me is that they

1974
02:10:31,520 --> 02:10:35,159
got destroyed in the possessions They played
without Patty Mills lame demartar Rosa last year.

1975
02:10:35,239 --> 02:10:39,399
The thing is is that was sub
one, seven hundred fifty possessions.

1976
02:10:39,680 --> 02:10:43,520
And because you had Derek White dealing
with injuries, he wasn't a part of

1977
02:10:43,520 --> 02:10:48,119
a lot of those lineups. Maybe
you have to imagine that either he or

1978
02:10:48,159 --> 02:10:50,880
Dejeante Murray, one of them as
sort of more of a vocal point,

1979
02:10:50,920 --> 02:10:54,279
gets even better. I am curious
see how the fit goes with them.

1980
02:10:54,359 --> 02:10:58,239
That could be iffy. They're still
going to stagger those minutes because they need

1981
02:10:58,279 --> 02:11:01,640
those two to handle the ball.
You have a figure on one of Kelvin

1982
02:11:01,680 --> 02:11:03,880
Johnson or Lonnie Walker getting better,
Devin of the Seals rock solid. You

1983
02:11:03,880 --> 02:11:07,840
mentioned Jake Puddle already. Faddy is
Young is gonna help this team while he's

1984
02:11:07,880 --> 02:11:11,840
there. But that and this is
where this is why the over. I

1985
02:11:11,840 --> 02:11:13,479
don't know if I said I was
picking over. This is why the over

1986
02:11:13,560 --> 02:11:16,239
makes so much sense to me.
What does selling look like for the Spurs.

1987
02:11:16,600 --> 02:11:22,079
It's trading Thaddeus Young And that is
literally yeah, well, I mean

1988
02:11:22,159 --> 02:11:24,079
that's not selling. That would someone
be doing them a favorite? What if

1989
02:11:24,079 --> 02:11:28,760
I mean it is healthy? Like
that's just someone who could defend across wingspots

1990
02:11:30,039 --> 02:11:31,800
and you could play smaller with And
what if you decide to keep Thaddy is

1991
02:11:31,880 --> 02:11:35,840
Young because no one's meeting your asking
price and you're a little bit better than

1992
02:11:35,840 --> 02:11:39,399
expe like if you're on the fringes
of the play in race. This is

1993
02:11:39,399 --> 02:11:43,119
a team that's gonna go for it
because of Greg Popovitch. So I'm actually

1994
02:11:43,119 --> 02:11:48,840
a little bit uneasy about how how
I don't know how good I feel about

1995
02:11:48,880 --> 02:11:52,560
going with the over here sub thirty
winchs just feels like a lot for as

1996
02:11:52,680 --> 02:11:56,720
I think you phrased it perfectly,
a roster that is chock full of good,

1997
02:11:56,199 --> 02:12:00,399
not great pieces, but still good
pieces. Also, what if Zach

1998
02:12:00,399 --> 02:12:05,319
Collins is healthy and even a shadow
of what we thought he could be during

1999
02:12:05,319 --> 02:12:09,079
his Portland Trailblazers days. This team
has the chance to be really good defensively,

2000
02:12:09,359 --> 02:12:13,920
like between with Daddy is Young,
There Yaka Pearle one of the best

2001
02:12:13,000 --> 02:12:16,520
rim protectors you have, Derek White, Jante Murray's and all defense got waing

2002
02:12:16,560 --> 02:12:20,720
to happen. Devin Vassell was already
on that level. You need Kelvin Johnson

2003
02:12:20,800 --> 02:12:24,640
to get better there if you need
Lonnie Walker to get better than you need

2004
02:12:24,840 --> 02:12:26,840
Lonnie Walker just get better everywhere,
probably, But like this could be an

2005
02:12:26,840 --> 02:12:31,439
above. If their offense is bad, their defense could be probably comparably as

2006
02:12:31,479 --> 02:12:37,039
good, at least speaking of teams
that should be very good on defense.

2007
02:12:37,359 --> 02:12:41,399
Toronto Raptors set at thirty six and
a half. All you, I have

2008
02:12:41,399 --> 02:12:45,079
a question before I give you my
over under. Well, this team spend

2009
02:12:45,199 --> 02:12:50,680
a single possession this season operating in
the half court? Yeah? Sure,

2010
02:12:52,039 --> 02:12:56,239
I think there will be one?
Just one. How is this line so

2011
02:12:56,439 --> 02:13:01,520
low? I could not figure that
out. This is my This is my

2012
02:13:01,560 --> 02:13:09,239
order of magnitude, biggest overlock.
I think what you've a few things are

2013
02:13:09,239 --> 02:13:13,000
happening here, Kyle Lowry left.
People are reading too much into that in

2014
02:13:13,039 --> 02:13:16,880
the sense that Drags cannot replace his
defense. He does give you a viable

2015
02:13:16,920 --> 02:13:20,680
replacement on offense, even though he's
not doing all of the same things.

2016
02:13:20,720 --> 02:13:24,880
Maybe you're assuming they trade Siakam or
Van Fleet. It doesn't sound like Sam

2017
02:13:24,920 --> 02:13:26,880
is gonna miss too much time to
start the season with his injury, So

2018
02:13:26,880 --> 02:13:30,680
if you're assuming he's gonna be healthy, like Chris Bouche is gonna be healthy,

2019
02:13:30,800 --> 02:13:33,640
I understand they have Scottie Barnes and
it looks like they're gonna play him.

2020
02:13:33,039 --> 02:13:37,239
I think he ultimately hurt you on
offense as a score, I think

2021
02:13:37,239 --> 02:13:41,760
he might be like as close to
a net positive defender as you can be

2022
02:13:41,800 --> 02:13:45,520
as a rookie. And also he's
making really good decisions as a playmaker.

2023
02:13:45,720 --> 02:13:48,920
If they're gonna play this fast and
furious like, I think that could help

2024
02:13:48,960 --> 02:13:52,960
him get to a lee average offense. There's Fred van Fleet, Ogi Andaobi

2025
02:13:52,039 --> 02:13:58,800
looks just don't even forget just the
aesthetics of his game on offense looks so

2026
02:13:58,319 --> 02:14:03,640
good. So unless you tell me
or that you're banking on them trading one

2027
02:14:03,720 --> 02:14:09,199
of their top three players or more
obviously in siakam Og or Van Fleet,

2028
02:14:09,840 --> 02:14:11,720
I'm smashing me over here. And
yeah, injuries could throw that off.

2029
02:14:11,760 --> 02:14:16,640
I'm just not gonna cake those in
by default. I will say I did

2030
02:14:16,199 --> 02:14:20,359
go on this similar rant last year
and they ended up just getting They were

2031
02:14:20,399 --> 02:14:24,479
by the under by like a mile, but they tanked last year. I

2032
02:14:24,479 --> 02:14:28,319
think that might be the risk here
with our over is that this is a

2033
02:14:28,359 --> 02:14:33,840
team with Massa hu Jerry at the
helm. They're not going to aim to

2034
02:14:33,920 --> 02:14:37,920
finish eighth, ninth, seventh,
tenth, so they're not very clearly in

2035
02:14:37,960 --> 02:14:41,560
the top six. I could see
them no, not selling. I mean,

2036
02:14:41,560 --> 02:14:43,720
could I see them trading Gary Trent
Junior around the trade adventure. But

2037
02:14:45,760 --> 02:14:48,119
I'm not selling but shutting guys down
again. And that's where this could go

2038
02:14:48,199 --> 02:14:54,039
sideways. And you still haven't even
mentioned precious a chiwa Uta Watanabe. You

2039
02:14:54,199 --> 02:14:58,279
just mentioned Trent Junior as a potential
trade canidate. Malachi Flynn could break out

2040
02:14:58,319 --> 02:15:01,880
in a big way as a sophomore. People there's people have said, and

2041
02:15:01,920 --> 02:15:05,119
I've listened sorry that their youth because
you mentioned mal Kai Flynn and we talked

2042
02:15:05,119 --> 02:15:09,800
about Scottie Barnes, that their youth
hurts them on defense. It's like so

2043
02:15:09,840 --> 02:15:15,159
many of the kids, Yeah that
I'm not sure about that. So you

2044
02:15:15,159 --> 02:15:18,560
know how when you build win projections, you kind of just go through them

2045
02:15:18,600 --> 02:15:22,800
and then see what they add up
to, and then inevitably you're way too

2046
02:15:22,880 --> 02:15:26,039
high on way too many teams because
you have to get down to twelve thirty

2047
02:15:26,239 --> 02:15:31,159
for the number of wins you're dolling
out. So I originally had Toronto winning

2048
02:15:31,199 --> 02:15:33,520
forty five games and they were one
of the ones that I had to cut

2049
02:15:33,520 --> 02:15:37,880
back on because I was way over
the designated number. So I ended up

2050
02:15:37,880 --> 02:15:41,439
with forty three, which is still
just shattering the over under. There's there's

2051
02:15:41,479 --> 02:15:46,000
just so much to like about this
team if even a sliver of what we're

2052
02:15:46,039 --> 02:15:48,880
seeing from O, G N and
OBI actually translate to the regular season.

2053
02:15:50,119 --> 02:15:54,920
I am unbelievably high on what Fred
van Vleet can do without Kyle Lowry next

2054
02:15:54,960 --> 02:15:58,079
to him, just because he has
the kind of game that is built to

2055
02:15:58,159 --> 02:16:03,840
thrive both as an on ball scoring
presence and also as an off ball weapon,

2056
02:16:03,880 --> 02:16:07,159
which we're going to see more and
more of this year with Ananobe taking

2057
02:16:07,159 --> 02:16:11,359
over possessions, with Siakam operating when
he's healthy, he's shown a good Yeah,

2058
02:16:11,359 --> 02:16:13,359
I met talked about that. What
if he's good. Yeah, he's

2059
02:16:13,359 --> 02:16:16,479
shown a lot of Van Valet still
has shown a lot of chemistry with Bouchet

2060
02:16:16,960 --> 02:16:20,159
in the pick and roll game,
the pick and pop game, and they're

2061
02:16:20,159 --> 02:16:24,359
going to be operating more alongside each
other this year. And then there's Dragics,

2062
02:16:24,640 --> 02:16:30,720
who is still a useful offensive piece
even at their minimum. So I

2063
02:16:30,840 --> 02:16:35,360
just I have no idea why this
line is what it is. I am

2064
02:16:35,360 --> 02:16:39,559
more concerned about their offense than their
defense, just because Drags probably is knowing

2065
02:16:39,600 --> 02:16:41,719
that Toronto is going to take the
long view unless they're like third in the

2066
02:16:41,760 --> 02:16:46,079
East or something. I could see
that moving him if a team wants help,

2067
02:16:46,280 --> 02:16:48,280
I'd be shocked if they bought him
out. And then you get into

2068
02:16:48,280 --> 02:16:50,799
a point where it's like, okay, you have Fred van Fleet and Siakam,

2069
02:16:50,879 --> 02:16:54,200
night needo O Giannaobe to be that
guy, and he might be.

2070
02:16:54,959 --> 02:16:56,639
I'm just a little big he is. Yeah, I think he is too,

2071
02:16:56,760 --> 02:17:00,920
But I'm just saying, if you're
everyone seems certned at both ends.

2072
02:17:00,920 --> 02:17:03,799
For them, I'm probably more worried
about the offense because of what it looks

2073
02:17:03,799 --> 02:17:07,319
like, like like even Siakam,
the best version of him is like not

2074
02:17:07,479 --> 02:17:11,360
this half court savant, Like let
me break down the defense. Fred van

2075
02:17:11,399 --> 02:17:13,840
Fleet can be that guy. Maybe
Draga is that guy a little bit is

2076
02:17:13,879 --> 02:17:18,920
ogn and Obi that guy he might
be. It's just I'm surprised that people

2077
02:17:18,959 --> 02:17:20,760
I guess are as low on their
defense as they are. As my point,

2078
02:17:20,799 --> 02:17:24,879
I'm more concerned about how they fare
on offense than their defense, and

2079
02:17:24,879 --> 02:17:28,440
they should be one of like the
low key best league pass watches to me

2080
02:17:28,440 --> 02:17:31,520
when we did our lead past rankings, I think I have them at two

2081
02:17:31,840 --> 02:17:33,920
because they're gonna play it like this
frantic. I think you have them at

2082
02:17:33,959 --> 02:17:37,360
one? Did I think it sounds
like me? Yeah? It does.

2083
02:17:39,520 --> 02:17:43,600
Next up are the Utah Jazz.
They're over. Under was set at fifty

2084
02:17:43,600 --> 02:17:46,399
three and a half. I was
right there having them at fifty three,

2085
02:17:46,479 --> 02:17:50,239
So I guess I'm on team under
for them, even though I think this

2086
02:17:50,239 --> 02:17:54,639
team continues to be one that could
easily finish with the most wins during the

2087
02:17:54,680 --> 02:18:00,479
regular season and hopefully not have the
same kind of playoff collab this year,

2088
02:18:00,520 --> 02:18:03,520
because I keep picking them to win
titles and they keep letting me down and

2089
02:18:03,600 --> 02:18:09,760
I can't quit it. Because Rudy
Gobert is just so incredible as just a

2090
02:18:09,799 --> 02:18:16,520
generational talent on defense in their system
is just built perfectly around him. Donovan

2091
02:18:16,559 --> 02:18:20,120
Mitchell one of the most fun takeover
guys out there. Mike Conley is doing

2092
02:18:20,200 --> 02:18:24,319
yoga now, so he's going to
stay healthy and be even more impactful.

2093
02:18:24,639 --> 02:18:28,000
But I still just I think the
under because they have to leave more in

2094
02:18:28,040 --> 02:18:33,280
the tank for the playoffs. The
depth is a little questionable this year because

2095
02:18:33,879 --> 02:18:37,159
even if you've added Rudy Gay and
Hassan Whiteside, I don't know how much

2096
02:18:37,200 --> 02:18:41,639
you want to rely on them this
year. But they do have more pieces

2097
02:18:41,639 --> 02:18:46,520
they could use with Eric Pascal and
Joe Ingalls and Jared Butler could make an

2098
02:18:46,520 --> 02:18:48,399
impact as a rookie. But do
you want to be trusting Jordan Clarkson with

2099
02:18:48,399 --> 02:18:54,639
the same offensive responsibilities in the second
unit. There are just a couple questions

2100
02:18:54,680 --> 02:18:58,760
I have where I just can't have
them running away towards sixty wins this year.

2101
02:18:58,360 --> 02:19:03,639
My official prediction is that Jordan clarks
he gets traded this season because Jared

2102
02:19:03,639 --> 02:19:07,440
Butler is so good, which applies
to Jared Butlers for the play. I

2103
02:19:07,559 --> 02:19:09,479
try to talk myself into the under
here. Joe Ingles, Mike Conley age

2104
02:19:09,520 --> 02:19:13,159
thirty four, Bayard Mdonovitch at age
thirty two. Could there be some drop

2105
02:19:13,200 --> 02:19:16,559
off there? Donna Mitchell is gonna
get better. Rudy Gobert does not get

2106
02:19:16,600 --> 02:19:22,600
played off the floor. The Jazz
just do not have enough smaller good defenders

2107
02:19:22,680 --> 02:19:28,680
in front of him to let him
operate on the floor. When a select

2108
02:19:28,799 --> 02:19:31,920
few teams downsize, it's not even
a bunch of teams, it's a select

2109
02:19:31,000 --> 02:19:33,959
few. If you told me that
they're going to look to post up Rudy

2110
02:19:33,959 --> 02:19:37,920
Gobert like they you know, France
did in the Olympics to punish mismatches.

2111
02:19:37,079 --> 02:19:41,680
I'd probably be a little bit uneasy. They're returning their top seven guys from

2112
02:19:41,719 --> 02:19:46,360
last year. They have that flyer
on Jared Butler Rudy Gobert, I think

2113
02:19:46,399 --> 02:19:50,479
allows them to play smaller in the
non Gobert Rudy Gay excuse me, allows

2114
02:19:50,559 --> 02:19:52,040
them to play smaller in the non
Gobert minutes if they want where you can

2115
02:19:52,120 --> 02:19:56,959
use him at the five, Him
and Eric Paschkell and Joe Ingles and Boyemodonald's

2116
02:19:56,959 --> 02:19:58,239
can all be on the court at
the same time with Donovan Mitchell or something

2117
02:19:58,280 --> 02:20:01,440
like just run run that and just
see what that look is. If you

2118
02:20:01,479 --> 02:20:05,760
don't, I think you have what's
a better backup center for you and us

2119
02:20:05,760 --> 02:20:09,159
on Whiteside than Derek Fabers at this
point. He did not look right last

2120
02:20:09,159 --> 02:20:13,559
season. But also just the type
of offense he plays is similar similar to

2121
02:20:13,600 --> 02:20:16,520
how Gobert plays, so like you're
just not missing a beat stylistically, you

2122
02:20:16,559 --> 02:20:20,319
have someone who can still catch lobs
lobs set screens. Isn't gonna be a

2123
02:20:20,360 --> 02:20:24,799
smart roll into the basket, not
as good as a passer obviously on those

2124
02:20:24,920 --> 02:20:26,520
roles, but still you get you
get the gist of what I'm saying there,

2125
02:20:28,559 --> 02:20:31,440
unless you're gonna tell me that Gobert
Donovan Mitchell missed a substantial time.

2126
02:20:31,520 --> 02:20:35,600
I think they're built to sort of
traverse any one absence, even if it's

2127
02:20:35,680 --> 02:20:39,799
an extended one from Conley, from
Clarkson, from Boyan Madonovitch, from Joe

2128
02:20:39,920 --> 02:20:43,639
Ingles. I'm gonna I think this
team wins fifty four, fifty five games.

2129
02:20:43,680 --> 02:20:48,280
It's I think we should at this
point save our standings from when we

2130
02:20:48,319 --> 02:20:50,680
do that awards pod when, whether
it's before the season or at the start

2131
02:20:50,680 --> 02:20:52,879
of it. But I would I
think Phoenix and Utah are gonna be like

2132
02:20:52,920 --> 02:20:56,399
the teams that are jockeying for one
and two in the West. Yeah.

2133
02:20:56,559 --> 02:21:01,239
I don't disagree with any of that. I mean, I'll spoil that there.

2134
02:21:01,600 --> 02:21:03,120
Utah is still my number one team
in the West in terms of record

2135
02:21:03,600 --> 02:21:09,200
because I haven't flattened and I haven't
flattened out that much, which maybe here

2136
02:21:09,319 --> 02:21:13,040
here's my thing is they won fifty
two in a seventy two game season where

2137
02:21:13,360 --> 02:21:16,799
they weren't I guess they had like
good health, but like you still had

2138
02:21:16,840 --> 02:21:20,760
Donovan Mitchell banged up at one point, though that was in the playoffs Soto

2139
02:21:22,000 --> 02:21:24,239
seventy two games. It's one of
those where I feel like it's just it's

2140
02:21:24,280 --> 02:21:26,719
misleading and frustrating that I have to
label this as an under because I only

2141
02:21:26,719 --> 02:21:30,360
had them at fifty three. But
like, I'm clearly high on them.

2142
02:21:31,239 --> 02:21:33,760
Yeah, so Adam thinks that the
Wizards are going to be better than the

2143
02:21:33,840 --> 02:21:37,840
Jazz Apparently that's what I took away
from that absolutely, because they're over under

2144
02:21:39,360 --> 02:21:41,399
as at thirty four and a half, and I thought it would have been

2145
02:21:41,399 --> 02:21:45,959
in the fifties. Like when I
put down sixty two wins for the Wizards,

2146
02:21:46,000 --> 02:21:48,959
Like, I just I couldn't believe
that I almost doubled the Vegas over

2147
02:21:50,040 --> 02:21:54,280
under, Like what in the world
is going on here? There's oh the

2148
02:21:54,280 --> 02:21:58,200
Wizards are me Yeah, but I
mean, can you now wax poetic about

2149
02:21:58,280 --> 02:22:01,319
Daniel Gafford and how he's going to
be alone? Yeah? I could,

2150
02:22:01,719 --> 02:22:05,879
I won't because I'm just curious to
see if he helps them a lot defensively.

2151
02:22:05,920 --> 02:22:09,319
That's still my big question with this
team breaking up Russell Westbrook in the

2152
02:22:09,360 --> 02:22:13,440
multiple players, I think does a
world of help for their rotation. Kuzmin

2153
02:22:13,479 --> 02:22:18,319
and KCP are both going to be
I think important defenders for them. I

2154
02:22:18,399 --> 02:22:24,200
like Denny Avia, I love his
game. I think there's like a lack

2155
02:22:24,239 --> 02:22:28,680
of secondary shock creation here when you
move on from Dinwoody and Bill can Alvia

2156
02:22:28,760 --> 02:22:31,280
run some of those ben shootits.
Maybe Kyle Kuzman gets to turn back the

2157
02:22:31,280 --> 02:22:33,520
clock to his rookie season work on
the ball a little bit. I went

2158
02:22:33,520 --> 02:22:37,040
with a reluctant over here, just
because I don't know what Thomas Bryant looks

2159
02:22:37,079 --> 02:22:41,840
like once he returns. They don't
have a good defensive center on this roster.

2160
02:22:41,000 --> 02:22:46,559
When you look at Tres Gafford and
Briant, I guess Gafford probably the

2161
02:22:46,600 --> 02:22:50,079
best at trio and maybe, yeah, maybe he's He probably is the highest

2162
02:22:50,120 --> 02:22:52,559
potential for sure. Like if you
told me he ended up being like this

2163
02:22:52,920 --> 02:22:58,399
hugely net positive guy around the basket
for them defensively, that wouldn't shock me.

2164
02:22:58,239 --> 02:23:01,479
It's still just the uncertainty of Bradley
Beale's future, because I do believe

2165
02:23:01,479 --> 02:23:05,120
it's fluid despite what a lot of
Wizards fans like to think. That does

2166
02:23:05,159 --> 02:23:09,399
give me pause. They do have
a new head coach in West until junior,

2167
02:23:09,479 --> 02:23:11,559
but he was revered for a lot
of just the stuff he did it

2168
02:23:11,559 --> 02:23:15,200
as an assistant, especially in Denver, working with guys on defense and other

2169
02:23:15,680 --> 02:23:18,559
things as well, that should help
him. I'm just gonna assume that Bill

2170
02:23:18,639 --> 02:23:24,120
finishes the season there, that Spencer
Genuti remains relatively healthy. And I think

2171
02:23:24,120 --> 02:23:26,760
when you make those assumptions, even
when you get into just a tough front

2172
02:23:26,760 --> 02:23:30,680
court rotation where it's like, okay, well, if you want Kuzman to

2173
02:23:30,760 --> 02:23:33,959
play some four hotchimurrors a four,
Burton's is a four. Someone is getting

2174
02:23:33,959 --> 02:23:37,040
squeezed. Is it gonna be Burton's
when his three point shooting is so important?

2175
02:23:37,600 --> 02:23:41,639
And then again, what happens your
second string point guard is Aaron Holiday?

2176
02:23:41,719 --> 02:23:46,680
Howell Netto, Holiday gives you the
North South jet fuel. I don't

2177
02:23:46,680 --> 02:23:48,440
know that he's like I just haven't
seen enough of him from him to think

2178
02:23:48,479 --> 02:23:52,680
that he's going to be a viable, you know, bench creator behind Dinwoody

2179
02:23:52,840 --> 02:23:56,479
Netto. That's just not his game. He's really feisty on defense, So

2180
02:23:56,559 --> 02:23:58,200
Denny Avia needs to step up there. You probably need Ruy Hotch want to

2181
02:23:58,239 --> 02:24:03,120
be a smarter offensive player. I
still think he could be fine, it's

2182
02:24:03,159 --> 02:24:07,600
a reluctant over. But if din
what he is healthy enough and Bill doesn't

2183
02:24:07,600 --> 02:24:11,879
go anywhere, I would be more
than sixty five percent confident in this pick.

2184
02:24:11,000 --> 02:24:18,040
How's that for an endorsement of Washington's
own? Not at all. Now,

2185
02:24:18,079 --> 02:24:22,040
it's there's another team where I like
so many of the pieces. I

2186
02:24:22,079 --> 02:24:26,079
think the Spencer, Dinuity, Bradley
Bill fit makes a lot of sense.

2187
02:24:26,520 --> 02:24:30,280
Advia has upside and just about every
area. Corey Kissberg, who I don't

2188
02:24:30,319 --> 02:24:33,920
think you mentioned, is immediately going
to be one of the better shooters in

2189
02:24:33,959 --> 02:24:37,319
the NBA, and you're pairing him
with Davis Burton's who can hit from all

2190
02:24:37,360 --> 02:24:41,760
over the floor. I will better
not be actually pairing him with Davis Burton.

2191
02:24:41,920 --> 02:24:46,959
You're not making anything more on the
roster than less. You know my

2192
02:24:48,000 --> 02:24:52,799
affinity for Daniel Gafford. I think
there's a somewhat realistic possibility that it all

2193
02:24:52,840 --> 02:24:56,559
clicks for Kyle Kuzma, where he's
learned to fill a defensive role in a

2194
02:24:56,639 --> 02:25:01,799
largely positive way, but also proved
is a rookie that he has scoring ability

2195
02:25:01,959 --> 02:25:03,440
and he just wasn't able to put
it on display in LA. What if

2196
02:25:03,440 --> 02:25:09,440
he pairs those two elements of his
game together, but I landed at thirty

2197
02:25:09,479 --> 02:25:13,000
two wins, so I was under
because I don't think Bradley Beale finishes the

2198
02:25:13,000 --> 02:25:18,239
season here. And if that's what
happens, what is this team? Because

2199
02:25:18,280 --> 02:25:22,879
I have no idea, but I
just I think that there's been those those

2200
02:25:22,000 --> 02:25:28,719
long running undercurrents of discontent there.
Even if he's always publicly maintained that he's

2201
02:25:28,760 --> 02:25:33,319
committed to the franchise that he's not
really going to ask for a trade,

2202
02:25:33,920 --> 02:25:37,479
I can also see that changing now
because public perception about him is changing,

2203
02:25:37,799 --> 02:25:43,200
where he's been viewed as this loyal, fringe superstar who is trying to carry

2204
02:25:43,239 --> 02:25:46,879
the franchise out of the dumps.
He's never really done anything unlikable. He's

2205
02:25:46,959 --> 02:25:50,719
easy to root for, and I
say that despite his status as a Florida

2206
02:25:50,760 --> 02:25:56,680
alumnus. But the anti vax thing
changes a lot of that because he,

2207
02:25:56,920 --> 02:26:01,559
for the first time in his career, has been subject to a lot of

2208
02:26:01,680 --> 02:26:05,799
public outcry and backlash, and I
think that changes how you operate and probably

2209
02:26:05,840 --> 02:26:09,040
makes you a little bit more bold
about doing what you feel is best for

2210
02:26:09,079 --> 02:26:13,760
you, which coincidentally is what he's
doing with the vaccine. Stance. But

2211
02:26:13,760 --> 02:26:16,079
that's neither here nor there. So
I just I don't think he finishes the

2212
02:26:16,120 --> 02:26:20,559
season in Washington, and I can't
pick the over because of it. That's

2213
02:26:20,600 --> 02:26:22,959
all fair. This was It was
like I said, sixty five percent confidence.

2214
02:26:24,000 --> 02:26:26,920
While I stay fairly confident, it's
not a high amount of confidence.

2215
02:26:26,920 --> 02:26:28,079
And then look, there's this scenario
in which he stays and they still don't

2216
02:26:28,120 --> 02:26:31,319
make that just there are a lot
of questions, probably after their top five

2217
02:26:31,840 --> 02:26:35,600
guys. But you could all if
he stays there the whole season, you

2218
02:26:35,639 --> 02:26:39,120
could sell me on this sneaking into
the play in conversation. Yeah, that's

2219
02:26:39,120 --> 02:26:41,239
gonna be interesting when we get to
our standards. Thank you to anyone who's

2220
02:26:41,239 --> 02:26:45,399
stuck with that this long, stuck
with us this long. I did not

2221
02:26:45,479 --> 02:26:48,159
break this up into two podcasts because
we're putting this out on a Monday.

2222
02:26:48,239 --> 02:26:50,040
The season starts on a Tuesday.
Yes, there are only two games on

2223
02:26:50,040 --> 02:26:52,799
the Tuesday, but let's just get
this out. I will time stamp it

2224
02:26:52,840 --> 02:26:56,479
at some point, hopefully once the
ads figure out how to get baked in

2225
02:26:56,920 --> 02:27:00,600
there. As I'm recording this outro, I have no idea how long this

2226
02:27:00,639 --> 02:27:03,440
podcast is. It's pushing three hours. It's at least two and a half,

2227
02:27:03,559 --> 02:27:05,319
is my guests or around there,
So thank you anyone. Yeah,

2228
02:27:05,360 --> 02:27:07,719
I'm trying to figure that out too, because we talked for a while before

2229
02:27:07,719 --> 02:27:11,600
we started recording. I'm gonna say
two how long, I would guess just

2230
02:27:11,680 --> 02:27:15,040
I'll take the under. Oh yeah, on under two and a half.

2231
02:27:15,079 --> 02:27:18,239
I'm gonna keep talking to make sure
that on that. But please, please,

2232
02:27:18,280 --> 02:27:22,520
if you made it this far and
you have not already subscribed to us,

2233
02:27:22,760 --> 02:27:26,159
consider doing so. We cover the
NBA at large. We are pleasantly

2234
02:27:26,200 --> 02:27:31,559
sub mediocre and modestly insufferable. So
how's that VERBRINGI endorsement? Whether or not

2235
02:27:31,639 --> 02:27:35,079
use iTunes, please remember to head
over there, throw us a five star

2236
02:27:35,159 --> 02:27:37,000
rating and write a review. The
review can be critical. If you have

2237
02:27:37,079 --> 02:27:41,680
thoughts on how we can improve,
that's fine, but writing it helps us

2238
02:27:41,680 --> 02:27:43,360
in the charts as through those five
star ratings, and so please head over

2239
02:27:43,399 --> 02:27:46,559
there again, whether or not use
iTunes to do that until next time.

2240
02:27:46,920 --> 02:27:50,079
This is the first time I've been
able to say it in so long because

2241
02:27:50,079 --> 02:27:54,440
I've not been ending the team look
aheads with it, but shout out too,

2242
02:27:54,879 --> 02:27:58,479
the one, the only, the
dude whose name Adam will not get

2243
02:27:58,520 --> 02:28:05,200
tattooed on him because he is a
coward and a hater. Shout out Frankni

2244
02:28:05,280 --> 02:28:11,520
Aquita M.