What is crack alacking Hardwin Knox listeners. It is the return, the return
of Adam Prommeell to Hardwood Knocks after a hiatus while he was very busy doing
other things, but also we were just trying to get through our Team look
Ahead series. All thirty teams are done. They are up, they are
posted. Check our podcast feed, check our YouTube page. They're all there.
We have a landing page at NBA Math. Check our Twitter accounts at
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fantastic. It was fun. Go listen to your favorite team, bounce around
to some of the other teams that you don't know enough about. Download every
episode because that helps us out a ton. Adam is back to handling the
intros. But I want to do our usual preamble. I will try and
keep it shorter than usual, which I guess I'm not doing a good job
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the first time, please consider throwing us that permanent subscription. We cover the
entire MBA at large and aim to be only modestly insufferable about it. We
are getting into our over under predictions for the season. We did not when
we have time to spend up into two podcasts. I said, fuck that.
Adam said fuck that. This is one long ass podcast. As long
as you don't download this episode immediately after I post it, there will be
timestamps. Bounce around, find your favorite team, find of our favorite teams.
Get mad at our predictions, but download the episode listen to it.
It was a lot of fun recording this. Hopefully you guys appreciate the time
stamps, because those are a lot of fucking work. I don't want to
I'm not playing the martyr card here, but hopefully you guys really do appreciate
the timestamps. That's enough out of me, though. We're gonna get into
some over undertalk and please welcome back Adam Fro. The band is back together.
It was fun, it was great, it was grand. Let's do
it Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode of Hardwood Knocks. This
is Adam Fromwell back from a long hiatus to join Dan Favalley as we go
through every team in the NBA and do some over under win predictions fore twenty
two season. I've been away for so long because Dan has been soldiering through
these team by team previews, talking to an expert, a local expert for
each and every team in the NBA, gearing up with some just excellent in
depth previews. We have a landing page for them up on NBA math.
I would highly recommend that you check it out. It has access to each
and every one of the episodes, as well as detailed, thorough time stamps
that help you kind of navigate through them. And I'm also just I'm a
little intimidated for this episode, Dan, because I have not been talking to
experts on each and every team before we do the over unders, So I
feel like this is an unfair advantage and I need some sort of handicap here.
I think, let's bought you a couple of teams, and look,
you might be right, because I did do We didn't get through all thirty
teams because last year's offseason was a fucking nightmare. But I did to look
ahead preview again and if anyone cares about our results, we've both finished above
five hundred in the wind artament. You were sixteen and fourteen. I was
twenty two and eight. That is shocking. That was a revelation to me.
So maybe it does give me an unfair advantage. I will say I
had to go back and I did updated win totals for our podcast. We
do win totals on each of the previews for anyone who listens, but I'm
basing these off the latest ones in my picks. I was a little generous
with the overs at first, so I went back and I had to make
some tough cuts because I was like, there can't be twenty three teams they're
hitting me over. I must be like drinking the kool aid as I'm talking
to all these people who are able to sell me on the team that they
cover. See, that's why I always approached these by putting them away and
building my own wind projections for the season for it, because essentially you have
to make sure they add up to the right number of games, and that
kind of makes sure that I'm not going to end up with twenty six overs
and four unders, which it kind of has seemed like has been the case
for the guest predictions on these again thorough and excellent previews, but with the
over unders, it's definitely seemed like there's a little bit of homering going on.
All I can say, though, is my method got me to twenty
two and eight and you were sixteen and fourteen. Make of that what you
will. I'm not saying for a handicap. That's again like I'm fully acknowledging
this. It's an unfair advantage. It is what it is, but it's
an unfair advantage we do normally we are this is an undertaking for us,
not because we have to do it. We don't mind doing it, but
we need to make this podcast not eight hours long, and we're trying to
go through all thirty teams, and we normally split these up like we do
with each conference, Like when Grant Hughes and I did report Cards, we
recorded a two and a half hour podcast on each of the conferences. So
let's not make this a five hour podcast. I will try and keep us
to a timer. But do you want to guide us through these over unders?
Do you have any notes or anything though, But before we get started,
yes, one note is that I think we need some stakes this year.
And look, you backed out of a prepared Okay, I know,
and it was because John Morant got hurt and I just assumed that Memphis would
fall off more than it did. But coward, so be it. Yeah.
Well, that's why I'm coming with the idea of having a bet for
this one. And I think what we should do is it still has to
be NBA related, but I think the winner should get to pick a thoroughly
ridiculous, ridiculous topic and we have to do an episode about it. I'm
with it. So we just want to go straight record, yeah, I
think so, or we could do like the Total Games off. Let's just
think that's I didn't do like win projections, So let's just do a great
record, okay. And if there's like a big discrepancy through the podcast,
we might need like another side bet, like you have to get if we
disagree on like the Knicks, you have to get my face my portrait tattooed
on your back. If I'm right or wrong, I was gonna say neck
all right, nick forehead, even if that's like straight Jordan Clarkson style.
I'm ready to do this. I think I feel wildly not confident about this,
but you can tell me. You did not tell me where we got
the wind totals from, and I feel like I need to plug that source
as I'm going through this wind beat Baby sponsored by their partnership with Blue Wire.
Where else would we get our lines from. I was just giving you
a chance to promo. No, you ran with it perfectly, but then
questioned it just invalidated the whole thing. These lines are from win Bet.
They are accurate as of Saturday, October sixteenth. I will say if there's
a certain someone that gets traded from a certain team, but before these go
live or before the season starts, highly unlikely. I do think it's like
the James Harden situation last year with the Rockets. We both tried to factor
that in. I would have to bake it in. I was more correct
than you were wrong. But like I made these projections where for the like,
I made some assumptions, like I don't think Jamal Murray's playing before March
in Denver. I don't think Kawhi Leonard is going to play this year for
la Et cetera, et cetera. But if I'm picking a team, like
let's just use the Knicks as an example, I didn't in my mind like
try and hedge against them getting obliterated by injuries. You're trying to work with
like the most common or most known information that you have the likeliest outcomes.
Yeah, and so like, if there's a team that decides to blow it
up that I didn't see coming, then yeah, that line is going to
be white off one way or the other, right, And I guess that
leads into the only other note that I have before we really dive into this
with the Atlanta Hawks, And that's that this felt so much harder this year
because you can make more compelling, upside driven cases for a lot more teams
than you can in many seasons. Often the bottom feeders in both the East
and the West are at a certain stage in their rebuilding process where it's like,
no, even if everything goes right, you're not a playoff team.
We can just lock that in. It feels like for almost every team in
the league you can build like very much a super stretch of a case,
but a case none the less because they have so many players with a lot
of draft pedigree with a lot of realizable upside that you can sell yourself on
the pseudo unrealistic upside for just almost every team in the league this year.
I mostly agree with you, but having heard some of your off the record
takes before we started recording, I'm also inclined to say that I do not
unequivocally one agree with you, and that may come up that I am surprised
that you struggled with the Hawks one though, so do you want to take
us through them? You have the win totals in prot of you, right,
I didn't struggle with the Hawks. I was just giving that as a
general note. But yes, we can start with the Hawks. The over
under was set at forty seven and a half games, and I just think
that's way too low. This is actually one that I had a good bit
of discrepancy because I have them projected at fifty one wins. This team has
already shown what it can do in the last year's playoffs, but at the
same time, it's so young that it is entirely realistic for them to do
so much more. This is very much a year we could see Trey Young
put together some sort of MVP case more like on the back of the ballot
than for the number one spot. What if DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish breakout,
John Collins is back, Clint Capella is healthy, on Yuka kong Wu
showed a bunch of flashes in the playoffs, as did Kevin Hurder. Bogdan
Bogdanovitch is healthy, Delon Wright and Shariff Cooper give much better point guard depth
than the Hawks have had at any point in the in the near past,
which has been a huge issue for them because there's so much responsibility he'd done
Trey Young shoulders, then when he leaves the game, they're in big trouble.
So there's so much to like about a disciplined team under Nate McMillan that
I just even if they do take their foot off the gas, this is
the deepest team in the NBA, and it is just filled with top end
talent, and it now is prepared to survive life without Trey Young. So
I just I don't see where the losses come from. D And look,
the data backs that up. When Bogda Modanovich and Lou Williams played together without
tre Young last year, the offense was absolutely fantastic. Now You're probably gonna
get a healthy DeAndre Hunter. Maybe Cam Reddish takes a step forward. John
Collins is going to be better. I think that was the most one of
the most underrated things about the postseason is. Yeah, his numbers did not
jump off the page. However, he just found ways to make an impact
with you know, different mode of operations where you can't be the primary roller
of Clinkopela's on the floor. He still found a way to make an impact
on offense. He defended really well. I went over here too, and
that wasn't I didn't even really give it much thought. I'm just like,
this is one of the I don't think we're I think some people think that
the Hawks there was a rush to coordinate them last year and had they got
about their off season and decided like we needed to do this or that.
Like I kind of get it. But this team like wasn't at full strength
ever last year, and there's a chance that or they should be healthier this
year. I'll say, even without Onyeka kung Wu, you know, to
start the season. So I would be genuinely surprised if they stay relatively healthy
and do not clear this over under It also played at like a seventy win
pace or something. Once McMillan took over during the regular season. This wasn't
the same team in the second half that it wasn't the first right and for
the better obviously. So yeah, this was an easy one. The next
one is a second thought. The next one is not. I'll let you
start on this one. Boston Celtics set at forty six and a half.
I went reluctantly over here. I'm not actually as high on their depth as
a lot of the other people who talk about them are. I know,
Zach Lowe is fairly high on their depth. The guest we had, Alt
Kungu, He's fantastic. He was a little bit higher on their depth than
I am. But I do think like their top seven guys are really good.
I expect Peyton Pritcher to make a jump. I love their starters.
Having Dennis Shrewder is going to be a big help. I'm concerned a little
bit about what he looks like playing for his next contract because he's not staying
in Boston beyond this season. It's just not happening. And their offense in
general, I kind of just wonder if there's enough creation in some lineups.
That being said, the defense should be great. Whether they play Al Horford
and Robert Williams together or not, they do have some interesting small ball combinations.
COVID is running rampant through their team right now with Horford and John Brown
having it. I'm just gonna assume or hope that that doesn't become the long
term issue for them. Jason Tatum's like a He's an All NBA player at
this point. Forty seven wins is not astronomical, even in an Eastern Conference
where I think, you know, for me, there's and we're gonna get
to the Nets. Milwaukee. The Nets are in the same tier right now
because the whole Kyrie Irving stuff, you I just can't put the Nets ahead
of Milwaukee there, and then there's Atlanta for me, and then like there's
everybody else, like in the meat Metatos of the East. I think there's
a chance Boston's gonna emerge is like that top tier team among that group.
In lockstep, I had them at exactly forty seven wins, so just the
slightest of overs, and it surprised me because I felt like I was lower
on this team than what I expected. The consensus to be, but it's
the exact opposite. And I guess there are just enough intriguing pieces that we
haven't seen before, like Dennis Shruder, who I am worried about because I
don't know that I want to see what happens when Dennis Shrewder is playing for
his next contract after self admittedly fumbling the bag. There are going to be
some ugly offensive possessions as he tries to seek out that next payday. But
still he does bring a dynamic to this team that it didn't have before.
I can't wait to see what we're gonna be witness from Jason Tatum as he
continues this assent, you know, from a self admitted top ten or fifteen
player to a top five as he wants to be. I'm not sure that
he gets there this year, but I would not rule that out based on
what we've seen from him when he is playing at his best. So there's
enough to like here that I think that you can realistically argue that forty seven
is going to be too low because I agree with you that there's a clear
cut top three in the East, and then Boston is the most likely candidate
to join it, and there's like, look, once you get past like
you have Marcus Smart, Denis Trutter. I still believe in Josh Richardson.
I like Peyton Pritchard, Jay and Brown, Jason Tatum obviously, and then
Robert Williams now Horford. What did I just name eight players there? Seven?
Like? It just gets iffy after that. I don't know what the
sort of the backup big like I'm not a big wanhern and Gomez guy.
I'm not necessarily out on Grant Williams, but he is not developed according to
Planet are you gonna even play? I? Is Canner at this point?
Is Jr? Barry Parker gonna get some looks? And I also think you
probably need a lot of people are high around Aaron E. Smith than I
am. Are you still holding on Hope Romeo Langford? They need one of
the guys that I did not name it initially, one of those seven guys
I think to be like valuable and good and consistent. And I just don't
know if they'll get there. I still think as long as they were made
relatively healthy, they have enough to flirt with, you know, forty eight
forty nine wins, And I do think we see a jump from Pritchard.
That was a big part of me giving them that many wins. He look
in Summer League Yo yo handles and everything. I hope we get a case
in that in the regular season Brooklyn Nets were set at fifty five point five.
Felt like this was a weird one because obvious reasons. We don't know
if Kyrie Irving is going to cave get vaccinated and actually be able to play
instead of wasting his time. We don't know anything about the depth of this
team, and we don't know how Kevin and Durant and James Harden are going
to stay healthy because each of them is due for a lot of maintenance days.
Harden has worn down late in a lot of seasons in the past,
so are they going to cut back his responsibilities during the regular season knowing how
much talent they have on a nightly basis there, I feel like there are
a bunch of questions about this team and they're all negative. So I ended
up having them at fifty wins because Durant and Harden are just that good.
There are a number of other intriguing pieces. I'm super high Nicholas Claxton,
but it doesn't seem like, yeah, it doesn't seem like they are We're
going to feature him because LaMarcus Aldrich just back, Blake Griffin is back,
Paul Millsap is here, James Johnson is still there. There's so much not
great veteran depth preventing the few young guys with upside from actually doing things that
I just I don't know that I see it is this is that classic team
that is not going to put up the true Pinnacle regular season record and is
going to be hell to deal with in the playoffs. Yeah, and if
this was an easy under for me too. The Kyrie Irving stuff, I
don't know whether I expect him to play or not, but I assume that
the Nets are still going to be very cautious with games Hard and Kevin Durant's
availability. Grant is more than half the season last year, and Harden had
that hamstring injury. The fact that he's been an iron man during the regular
season for his career, to me, almost works against him. It's like
he's overdue for this major setback. I know there's no science behind that,
but that's just how it feels to me. I'm not concerned about their guard
depth. They have Patty Mills who was pretty bad last year to close the
season. But then, as Christian Winfield pointed out to me on the podcast
that we did on the Nets, he was really good during the Olympics,
so he's gonna be fine. I still really like Javon Carter. They have
plenty of bigs. You're not gonna play Nicholas Clackson. There's at least depth
there, and Blake Griffin was good for them. You had the Bruce Brown
lineups. They just they need wings, which is such a weird thing to
say about a team that has James Harden and Kevin Durant on it and they
don't have that. So I questioned, like, and they have Joe Harris
as well, but like that behind Harris hardened Durant, Like those guys coming
off the bench. Are they actually gonna rely on Cam Thomas now or are
they gonna rely on DeAndre Bembrey. Is Bruce Brown gonna be like not the
day facto big in certain lineups because I actually think that works against Bruce Brown
offensively. Maybe they have enough shooting to offset that and he can just chill
out in the dunker spot or whatever. I don't think that's gonna be crippling.
I just don't think that this team gives a shit about the regular season
and the fact that Kyrie's not there as of now. And I think you
could probably say, if I ask you to peg it, do you think
Kyrie Irving plays an NBA game for the Nets this season? No, fifty,
If it's fifty fifty, if it's even that high, like that's enough
for me to just go under. Fifty six wins is a lot. I
also just want to pray that they're gonna end up playing Javon Carter, DeAndre
Bembrey, Bruce Brown, James Johnson and Nick Klaxton at the same time,
just because that is one of the best. They're going to hustle their asses
off and no one is going to want to try to score against that line.
Yeah, I look there. They should get weird, especially during the
minutes where like they're only having one star. Will they ever play minutes without
Kevin duran and James Harden off the court? If they'll tell me that's not
a super fun defensive lineup. No, But I'm saying, if you're gonna
have any stretches, whether it's like a minute or two where both Durant and
Harden are off the court, and you obviously don't have Kyrie get Get weird.
I would be a very big advocate of that, absolutely. So we're
three for three so far in terms of agreeing. And that brings us to
the Charlotte Hornets and their win total is set at thirty eight and a half,
and you're up. I went under here pretty comfortably. I just think
that there's like this urgency to crown them a fringe playoff team, and I
don't see how they get there yet. I respect that they've just decided they're
not going to play with a real center. Mason Pum is gonna play like
fifteen to twenty four minutes a game, whatever it is, and that's it.
I don't expect them to give real run to Kai Jones or Vernon Carrey
Jr. PJ. Washington to five was a crush for them last year.
I imagine it'll be a crutch again. They did the defense was like surprisingly
okay during those stretches, it's just can it hold the rebound? He's going
to be an issue. I really do like Miles Bridges. We both love
LaMelo ball Terry rose Year. Even though we kind of cooled off towards the
end of last season. His shooting probably sustains if Gordon Hayward and LaMelo both
stay healthy. You can look at this team, they're a lot of good
you know, look at their what seven best players, LaMelo, Terry Rosier,
Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubrey, Peg Washington, Miles Bridges and even Mason
Plumley. That's great. I just the backup rotation is very thin once you
get to Kelly Ubridge junior, and you know PJ. Washington might be included
in that. I don't ish Smith is a downgrade from Devonte Graham, and
I know Devonte Graham and not have the best year last year, I think
that ends up hurting them. How much run do they give to James book
Knight and what does does he look like? Do they even play him?
James Brago is kind of brought along the kiddos a little bit more slowly,
and as Canada Edwards pointed out to me on Twitter the other day, like
there's a chance that Cody Martin plays instead of him, which for the defense
I totally get. I'm just it feels like we're a year away. Something
special was brewing in Charlotte and I don't actually care that they don't necessarily have,
like I will spend money on Rashaun Holmes. I've said that they should
be fine a draft pick for not paying Rashaun Holmes if that's all's costs to
get them. That being said, it's just it feels like we're a year
away and that they might be a player away from being like this five hundred
or better team, which is basically where this line is peg Dad. I
feel like they're probably gonna be around like that thirty two to thirty five win
mark again. And the other thing to note before I throw it to you
is that they outperformed their point differential last year in terms of their wins,
and so like you're looking at a team that didn't rack up they finished with
last season, they what did they have? But wrote it down somewhere whatever
they finished with thirty thirty Where are they? I don't know, Oh,
they finished with thirty three wins, and like they had a point differential of
the team that was actually worse than that. So I'm not saying I'm just
saying growth isn't linear here. They could be a little bit worse or just
on par with last season. And actually be better for the future. I
just think we're still a year away from it. So yeah, I totally
agree that they're one year away from being that true playoff team. But I
did end up going with you over here. I had them at forty wins,
so just barely over because I'm so high on the ceiling of this team
when all of the pieces truly coalesce that I still think that they're going to
make that kind of jump this season. But we already think the world of
LaMelo Ball, who asserted himself immediately as what maybe a top five passer in
the league. Is that reasonable at this stage? Yeah, I mean he's
that's definitely not egregious. If he's not, he's close to okay, And
there's still so much more to plumb here, and the beauty of having a
piece like that that now has continuity with the other key pieces. I expect
Terry Rogier to pick it up where he left off in the first half of
the season. Gordon Hayward is going to continue to look like a star with
even less defensive attention paid to him. The chemistry that he's shown with PJ.
Washington, both as a pick and roll and a pick and pop guy
Miles Bridges in transition, Mason Plumley adds a lot to this team. There's
a lot that centers around LaMelo, and I just think it's already reasonable to
be that high on him. I mean, in the Crystal Basketball project that
we've done an NBA math, all of the results are out now. We
should plug that as well. So if you have not checked that out,
where we rank every single player who we think has a shot to play in
the NBA based on training camp and all that, please check that out.
We had LaMelo ball at fortieth in that already sandwich between Brandon Ingram and Fred
Vanvley, ranked as an All Star candidate, and I think we might have
still been a little low on him. I just I expect that kind of
leap in year two. I'm just worried about them getting lost in the fracas
that is that middle of the Eastern Conference where I think that they are just
clearly better teams right now. And that's just what it came down to for
me. Yeah, I ended up just dedicating a lot of wins to the
East in these projections because my forty wins for Charlotte still only gave them the
eleventh seed. Wow, that is I think. I think that there's a
ton of like forty two, forty three, forty four win teams. I
guess we will find out what did you have for this next team? For
the Chicago Bulls, who were set at forty three and a half, I
have them at forty one, so they were one spot ahead of Chicago in
my Eastern Conference pecking order. I was surprised that the line was set this
high until I remembered how much name value there is on this roster with Nikola
Vukovich, with Demarda Rosen, Zak Lavine, Lonzo Ball, even Alex Caruso
to an extent, given how much social media attention he's drawn over the last
few years of the Lakers. They're all good players, but I really have
questions about how this team is going to work because I don't see a path
to having even a semi adequate defense unless Patrick Williams and and Javonte Green end
up spending thirty five minutes per game together. And I worry about the cohesiveness
of the offense because Vouchevich, DeRozan, Lavine and Ball are all best when
they're controlling possessions and It's gonna be interesting to see how a team that doesn't
even feel like it has like those mega stars is going to share the ball.
I just I have worries on both sides of the ball. But I
do think there's so much talent that they're just going to out talent the opposition
whenever they play one of the true bottom feeders. I had them, I
went reluctantly, reluctantly under I'm not one of those people that my problem with
the De Rosin thing. I think de Rosen was a great player. I
don't really care about the money. They just gave up too much to get
him, and like the opportunity cost of now having him in Nicola Vujevic,
it was just too high for me. I just I'm very concerned about the
defense. There's just a lot of good players on this team, and I
think you get to a point where, if it's a close game, you're
in the fourth quarter, can you pencil vouch de Rosen and lean all on
his givens? The leading has gotten better on defense, he's still not good,
and so you can have Lonzo there, but and then Patrick Williams,
but like, what are you doing there? You're not gonna pull Vooge because
you're back. Your big rotation isn't that great after him, You're gonna have
to rely on told me Bradley. Maybe they get creative and we see some
Derk Jones Junior at the five or even Patrick Williams at the five. That
and you're definitely not gonna bench Levine. He's your best player. Lavine is
zach. Lavine is fantastic. He's shot so well on off the dribble three's
the past couple of years. My whole thing is just that you of the
guts to then bench Jamarta Rosen, who, by the way, is also
your second best shot creator in the half court, because that's never been Lonzo
balls m O. There also seems to be like a conflicting vision here.
And I know they can stagger and lind Us, but they want to play
fast, which is just not Yeah, Booch can hit some trailer threes,
but like fast, it's not the Rosen's default speed. They've talked about putting
the ball in the half court in Lonzo's hands more. That one might not
make sense in general, given how Lonzo was fair throughout his career, but
when you also have Levigne and Vouch and a Rosen. The pecking motor gets
complicated. This team is good, and I could very easily see them it's
too right. I could very easily see the Bulls being like this very strong
regular season team. I don't know that I would view them as a threat
in the playoffs where they just blow this over under out of the water and
they like forty eight wins. I'm just betting against it because you have to.
You have to make some tough calls throughout this process. I don't trust
the defense long term, and they're like, I don't know, They're not
like an injury away from disaster. But when you look at this roster,
who do you trust? Their starting lineup is a given, and then you
have Alex Cruzer coming off the bench, and then it's like, all right,
DeVante Green is kind of nice. Is even gonna play? Do you
trust Kobe White to make a leap when he's healthy? He's dealing with some
shoulder stuff right now. Will Troy Brown Junior shoot well enough to stay in
the rotation? Alisae Johnson's intriguing, but are you going to be relying on
him? This looks really good in the preseason, but I don't know how
how scalable it's going to be, right, And so there's just after there.
I'll say after their top six guys, because Kobe White is just is
he redundant at all? When you have Lavine and Rosen already, I would
say no because Lonzo Ball is not that traditional shock creator and I don't think
Kobe White is supposed to be a point guard. Still, that's only them
like seven guys where it's like and just Kobe White is still such a mystery
box to me. So I in my reserve rations about this team. But
this is the one if you're trying to spot where I feel like I could
be just way off, this is one of those spots. Yeah, agree
with all of that. It's a very risky one, but if you're going
the most likely and it's risky not because it's necessarily the most likely outcome that
it goes over, but it's risky because there's so much potential for it to
be like the Knicks last year, where you're just off by twenty games.
Yeah, that would Knicks word disaster. Hopefully, hopefully they're not a disaster
this year for us. The Cavaliers are up next. The Cavaliers were set
at twenty seven and a half wins, and you're leading us on this one.
Yeah, so I went under here as well. I'm just at the
point where it's okay. They have a lot of talent on this roster.
I really like Darius Garland and Colin Sexton. I also think that Isaaco Korro
is not being mentioned enough as a good player. He's already maybe maybe grace
too strong a word. He can already defend. I think it's not too
strong. He's and he's moved well without the ball, and I think there's
some playmaking there. I don't want to read too much into his jumper like
not being there, but you know, a good player. I'm intrigued by
Evan Mobley more than I wasn't the draft. I thought they made a mistake
by drafting him and then paying Jared Allen. I'm still just not sold on
that fit, even after watching the ground that Evan Mobley can cover. And
then you get Larry market In again, someone who's a fine player, but
they're one probably banking on the fact that he has more to show offensively.
I just don't know if I trust him having a floor game. The shooting
should be fine, but it just seems so jumbled there. You're gonna play
Larry Market at the three for some stretches because you really don't have like these
backup wings. There's Jetty Osman and there's Dylan Windler, who is healthy this
time for real? Maybe probably not. It's so what is happening after really
the starting five? You know, Kevin Law doesn't have to factor into here
too much for that, and if he's playing well, I'm sure that helps
them. I think Ricky Rubio makes a huge difference as a backup point guard
and can help in the minutes where Colin Sexton's playing without Darius Garland. I
just I don't know. I don't like the overlap in the front call.
I'm just not a fan of having Mobile Marketing and Allen all at once.
I want to see Mobile play more center. Maybe they're still able to carve
out ample time for Mobile at center. It's not like they have a bunch
of true centers behind Jared Allen, so that it is possible. I'm still
not crazy about that little cluster between him marketing in and Allen, and they're
still they're just young, and when you look at how deep the middle class
of the Eastern Conference is there are two teams that I would say with confidence
I think Cleveland will be better than Detroit and Orlando. And that's still just
it. Like, I don't what is the other team that Cleveland is supposed
to be better then in this conference? I don't have one, so I
went I went with the undernoing that it sort of represents like a lateral move
from where their win total was last year. But I don't think drafting Evan
Mobley having Ricky Rubio is enough to sort of nudge you up like a few
wins. It just feels like this team is still there needs to be another
move here. I don't even want to call a consolidation trade, like maybe
an addition of a serious player or just something they still feel one player away
from being more than this bottom three, bottom four Eastern Conference team. I
also went the under here. I had them at twenty five wins. I
love so many individual pieces on this roster. I think Darius Garland makes an
All Star team at some point in his career. Colin Sexton is a super
fun and aggressive attacker. Isaac Accorro is already just a defensive standout. Evan
Mobley. I thought the opposite of you during the draft, where I thought
he was absolutely worth one of the top picks and such a talented player that
he was worth taking even if the fit was an ideal. Jared Allen brings
a lot of energy as a lob threat, as a developing offensive player,
and a super aggressive defender who is not scared to challenge anything around the basket.
But this roster makes no fucking sense. It just it is a mess.
I have no idea how they're gonna work. Laurie market In who You'll
note that I did not mention in the players I love into this rotation without
just jumbling up everything to the point of not being able to recognize a functional
offense. I also don't think Colin Sexton finishes the season in Cleveland, which
I'm factoring in here because there are already rumors of that discontent and a potential
trade last season, and we've heard some things this offseason. I don't know
how much validity to give those anonymous scout articles on Sports Illustrated that they like
to publish every year that are super fun and entertaining reads. But I just
I don't know how accurate they are, but there are some pretty scathing reviews
of his fit and the chemistry that he brings. Again about Sexton, and
I don't think he's going to finish the year there because this team has so
much talent and it still feels utterly directionless. And if you're unloading Colin Sexton,
what are you doing with that? Are you restarting the rebuild to some
extent, are you trying to get a different, developing, young talent that
fits better. But at the same time, like, what would you do
because you'd probably just want another shooting guard this it's I'm baffled by this team
and I like it a lot, and I'm still just baffled by it.
I like a lot of the individual players. I just don't know if there
are enough connectors here. I will say with Colin Sexton, my expectation would
be that he actually signs an extension and we'll finish the season in Cleveland because
it becomes basically impossible to move him. If he does not, that doesn't
change my prediction at all. But yeah, if you're gonna get rid of
Colin Sexton, I doubt you're getting like a player that's going to elevate you
that you so, if you really believe he's gonna get traded, you might
as well smash that that under. Yep, that brings us to the Dallas
Mavericks. Their win total was set at forty eight and a half. I
thought this was an easy under. I had them at forty four wins.
I had them add him over reluctantly. I'm just I'm interested that we disagree.
Please carry on. Yeah, awesome. No, I'm glad that we
had such a big discrepancy. And this is purely just my complete and utter
lack of confidence in Jason Kidd. He has made every team that he's touched
significantly worse. He's impeded the development of young players, he has abused players
mentally, as as we've seen detailed in a certain book. His presence is
just going to be toxic for this team. Luka doncicch amazing going to factor
into the MVP conversation without a doubt. Kris stops Porzingis is probably going to
get featured a little bit more in this kid offense, I would, I
would say, but beyond that, like, where are you turning for this
team to be one of the true benchmarks in the Western Conference because Dorian Finney
Smith, Tim Hardaway Junior, Jalen Brunson, they're fun, good pieces,
Maxi Kleiba, but they're not gonna be stars. And I just I don't
see that third player really even that second player, because I just I still
don't know what we're supposed to expect from Chris Stops at this point in his
career that's going to lift this team on a nightly basis. Yeah, look,
Jason kidd I, this would have been a very easy over for me
because I think the model that they have set up when you look at the
roster is Luca don Chi plus shooting. Now all the shooting, the addition
of Marksman and Frank Nilikina who shot the lights out from three of the past
season and a half. But really Sterling Brown, Reggie Bullock, resigning,
Tim Hardaway Junior. You still have Doran Finnie Smith there. Max and Kleibus
should be healthier this year. I think he also was dealing with COVID and
addition to injuries last season as well. Christoph should be better, and he
shot threes relatively well last year. He should better defendsily. That's a regular
season team that can run rough shod over the rest of the league. I
just don't trust Jason kidds was that I said, if your coach lets you
play that way, Well, that's the point is that I don't trust Jason
Kidd at all. Mike. I'm just I'm hoping against hope that his comment
about not taking as many threes and that the preseason data is wrong on that.
And the other thing is I don't need to see christops Porzingki's drilling into
mid range jumpers. Yes, it would help if he can post up,
and he was likely he was more efficient in that area last year. That
being said that, it just it can't be a crutch. I am still
worried about the non Luca minutes. I think they're worried about it too,
which is why they probably waived tyrol Tary instead of the unvaccinated Trey Burke at
this point. And Burke did have a he has another season left on his
deal. Self actor can't do it as well. I think Jen Brunson is
a player who really helps you in the regular season at least navigate some of
those minutes. Perhaps that's when you let Chris stops Porzingki's cook too. Is
when Dontres Is off the floor. This just feels like a fifty win team.
Luca Dontres plus shooting, to me is a fifty win team. And
I think we also have to look at like the fight that they have put
up with. Yeah, Chris stops Porzingkis was good in the bubble, Christops
Porzingkis was not good during these playoffs and like they were fighting with the Clippers
like they were just they gave him a like they gave them a series.
And so I'm just you apply that to the rest of the season. As
long as lucas healthy, I think they get to at least forty nine wins
here. And so it's a reluctant over. I don't the Jason Kidd factor
is. I came very close to going under for them. It's really the
only reason because the roster. It makes sense for a different coach and I
for me, it was just as simple as that if Rick Carlile was still
there, one of the easiest overs on this, Yes, absolutely, but
the line would have been higher too. The Nuggets for Nuggets set at forty
seven and a half, and this is one for you. First, My
expectation is that Jamal Murray will not play towards the end of the season,
if at all this year. I mean he injured his a cl in April.
Ten to twelve months is like that's almost April again. Whether he plays
or not, I'm going to take the over a year. I think Michael
Porter Jr. The antivactor that he is, even though he says that he's
not an anti vactor, which you've got to let people stop saying, Matt
don't let antivactors claim that they're anyway. Moving on. I he's good.
I also am a big believer in the depth of this roster. Without Jamal
mur Porter Junior should still give him add some extra on ball creation, even
though that's not necessarily his game. I don't think they're gonna try and put
Aaron Gordon on the ball as much as they did during the playoffs last year.
His offensive fit feels more seamless, Love Monte Morris, love Will Barton.
If they're healthy, they're starting lineup is going to be really good,
and they have just a lot of quality guys on the bench, Jeff Green
and Jamichael Green. They are just very interesting front courts that they can run.
When Nikole yokis is on the bench, and I'm really calling it now.
I don't know if Michael Malone is going to feel the same way.
Bill and Thailand makes an impact on this team a positive one because Jamal Murray's
absent. What he showed in the preseason. Just as like this contortionist when
he's finishing the three pointer is real. As Adamata has pointed out when we
did the Nuggets Pott, He's been a surprisingly good pastor. That's not something
that was talked about with him coming out of college. I think this team
I'm a little bit concerned about. Maybe Nicole Yokes wearing down has not missed
a ton of time throughout his career, played in every single game last season
after making like a mid end playoff run the season before, not having the
longest offseason. That concerns me a little bit. But he doesn't, you
know, play a style that I think is especially grueling on his body.
He dictates the term that's not even a He was in great shape last year,
so I'm not really I'm not shitting on him, Dick. He mandates
the pace isn't my point, and so I think that benefits will benefit him.
This is tough, but I'm gonna go over, and I think that
says a lot about this team because Jamal Murray probably plays in what twenty one
games tops this year. Yeah yeah, I mean even without Murray, this
team is just so good and has so much usable depth. And that's why
I went with the under. I have them at forty six wins because I
think they know they're that good and this is the season where they can get
away with kind of taking it easier during the regular season and using it as
that ramp up period for another deep postseason run when Murray is back and worked
into the rotation. We've heard Yokich already say that he has started to recognize
that he should listen to the staff when they ask him to take a rest
day because he needs to preserve himself. This team understands that it is one
hundred percent a top team, a top tier team within the Western Conference hierarchy
at the end of the season, and it's going to act accordingly. It
doesn't have anything to play for this year during the regular season because it has
reached that point in the building towards a title process. So I mean that
forty six win prediction as nothing but a compliment even if it is technically an
under. Yeah, it's it's easy to justify either one. I think I
just I don't want this to be like you know, I picked the under.
Therefore I hate the Nuggets because it's the exact opposite. All right,
Adam hates the Nuggets. Let's move on to the Pisically, let's move on
to the Pistons. Detroit Pistons set at twenty five and a half wins.
This was a difficult one for me, and I ultimately went over with twenty
seven. I do think that kid cunning him makes an immediate impact. Sadiq
Bay is just awesome. When he's fully healthy, he gets back to being
that high upside kind of three and D guy. I believe that Isaiah Stewart's
game is scalable, even as high energy as it is, so I think
he continues to play a bigger role and then all of that makes life a
lot easier on Jeremy Grant and Killian Hayes doesn't have to go through quite as
many speed bumps as a typical pseudo rookie point guard because he barely played last
year would be in terms of making turnovers, taking poor shots, because there
is enough supporting talent on this team. It's still super young. It's gonna
make a lot of mistakes, it's gonna lose a lot of close games.
But this is going to be one of those ficier teams that takes advantage of
the teams that overlook it on the schedule. Yeah, they're just I went
under and not that I didn't think about it. I just kay Cunningham's a
rookie. We haven't seen enough of Killy and Hayes. If he stays healthy,
what is he going to look like? We saw Jeremy Grant kind of
wear down towards the end of last season, and they did shut him down
at points. To his credit, I think Isaiah Stewart. They have a
lot of great big picture pieces on this team. I just I don't know.
The Kelly O Lienic addition was interesting, and they did look This team
was top ten and crunch time minutes before the All Star break last year.
I just think if they get to a point where they're there again, I
could see them still steering. I don't want to call it into a full
on tank, but they're still in talent acquisition mode. I don't think that
they're going to sell off Jeremy Grant at some point during the year. I
just don't think they're talented enough. And when you look at legitimately, you
aside any team other than Detroit and Orlando you can talk to me into making
the playoffs this year. And so like those victories amongst the you know,
let's say six through thirteen seeds in the East, gotta come from somewhere.
And I don't think the choice is gonna catch anybody off guard this year.
And I think that there's a lot of self discovery they have to go through
that's procedural and that has to be done. It's even if Kay Cunningham is
really good right away, there's just going to come. The learning curves are
going to come elsewhere. And so I think that they might get twenty five
wins. It'd be hard for me to believe that they're they're over twenty five,
though, yeah it's and I don't feel like twenty seven is too far
off from twenty five once we're down in those lower portions of the standings anyway,
because the difference for me is just I think that the baseline for this
team is high enough that it's competitive every single night. And there are enough
pieces that can just win a game single handedly any given night because they're showing
off that potential and the reason they have that kind of pedigree, Like Cunningham's
gonna win a game by himself at some point this season. Jeremy Grant probably
is too. I could see Isaiah Stewart just taking over a game on defense
and a fourth quarter. There are enough of those where I think that the
wins could add up because we're talking about a two win difference, where margin
in terms of relative to the number of wins they already have, that's a
bigger difference, so it just feels bigger. It could totally swing either way.
It just wouldn't surprise me if their record ends up being worse than it
was when you look at their winning percentage last year. And that's that's fine
with me. That brings us to you. The Golden State Warriors. Their
projection is set at forty seven and a half, and this one's on you.
I went under and I didn't think too hard about this one. Maybe
Jordan Pool was playing well enough in the preseason where people think that they're going
to be a fringe fifty win team. Claytown's is not supposed to come back
until January. We don't know how many minutes he's gonna play once he does
come back, what he looks like when he comes back. I think we've
seen. Look Draymond Green and Stephen Curry when they played without James Wiseman last
year. They annihilated opponents and they really looked like they unlocked something. It
seems like they're playing a good brand of basketball during the preseason. My guests
would be that they don't try and develop Jonathan main Gun Moses Moody heavily.
They're gonna play the Otto Porter Juniors, the Damien Lees instead that wants to
scone Anderson's and that will help their rotation. They're still gonna end up playing
James Wiseman when he comes back, I think, and that's gonna harsh their
vibe a little bit. I don't even if you believe that Jordan Pool is
ready to carry lineups on his own, they just don't have shot creation.
Aside from those two, they are a Stephen Curry rolled ankle away from absolute
disaster on this team. Still, when you're that reliant upon one player and
he is so far past thirty like he is and I look, Stephen Curry's
the top five player in the game. It's just this team was not great,
but their office was terrible. They were they were in the bottom twelve
of offensive efficiency last year with Stephen Curry going bonkers all season long. I
just find it hard to believe that they're going to be I think they're gonna
be. You know, well, I think they're gonna be a playoff team,
But you're gonna tell me that they're gonna come close to winning fifty games.
Everything has to go right for them, in my opinion, for that
to happen, and I just don't think that you can count on that.
I'm right there with you. I had this at forty two wins, so
a pretty substantial under a five and a half game difference. And yet that
difference is not as significant as the one that some statistical models are giving it.
For example, five thirty eight team projections, which I do think have
some flaws because they're so heavily based on like the on off stuff, still
has the Warriors winning thirty six games, and that's hard at like thirty seven
or thirty nine or something too. So it's not even it's not just that
one yeah, So it's one of those where, yeah, Steph is amazing,
He's gonna carry them. But as you said, if he gets hurt,
even the most minor of maladies for a minimal period of time, that's
a disaster, and it's just then afford that disaster. Let's say they lose
Steph and Curry for two weeks. If there's and I'm not saying they will,
that's I don't want to happen. That's what Let's say seven eight games
if they're playing, if they have to play seven games without Stephen Curry this
year, are they going one? Are they going three and four? No,
they're going two and five or one and six. And beyond that,
if this team sneaks into the playoffs, you will not want to play it
because Clay will be back right and they might not sneak in. They might
just be the sixth seed. But and I think that means teams know that.
And I think you're gonna see the Warriors getting a lot of teams best
shot and teams already always get it up for playing Steph Curry. So I
think that's going to matter in the beginning of the season two. This is
one of those that feels like it could be slow out of the gates.
And look, and by the way, I don't think that they can necessarily
afford for that to happen, just to be slow out of the gates.
I would say, like, you want to win out of the gate.
So maybe we see more Draymond Green at the five. We know he's not
going to start games they are, But yeah, it's this was relatively easy
hunger for me, which makes me think that they're probably just gonna obliterate it.
But but we shall say, yeah, probably and Steph could do it.
But it's also hard to carry that kind of load for consecutive seasons,
right, And it's that's all takes, by the way, and just it's
just like, what if Clay isn't good? I think I think his offense
is going to be fine for the most part. Per's like, what if
it takes him. He hasn't played basketball in over two years, right,
it could be a long ramp up period. So yeah, I mean,
there's it was it would be really hard to sell me on taking me over
there. And I still think this is a deadly playoff team if it makes
it one. They are a team that's built to they could be the ten
seed, and they could. I wouldn't if I'm the one seed in the
West. I don't want to have to face him in the first round.
They make it out of the play in whatever, So I'm with you there.
This next one was not as hard as Golden States, though Houston Rockets
set at twenty five and a half. I was comfortably over. I had
them at twenty nine wins. It might just be because I'm ridiculously high on
Kevin Porter Jr. Who I recently wrote about on NBA Math and the first
article I've written in literal years, So check that out if you want.
Yeah, Kevin Porter Jr. I think that the dual threat offense he brings
just as a high upside score who has shown more and more passing vision just
each and every year. And this team trusts him as that point guard because
John wall is not going to play, and that is probably a good thing
for this team because he's going to make mistakes learning on the job. But
there is a good amount of complimentary talent on this team, especially if Jalen
Green can make an immediate impact, if Aaron if Eric Gordon can get healthy,
really like Jayshon Tate. Christian Wood is a fantastic pick and roll or
pick and pop option to play alongside Porter. Daniel Tice is a good addition.
I really like Shan Goon, who if he gets minutes, I think
he makes an impact within those minutes. I think this team is sneaky good.
Yeah, no, they're gonna be bad. I have him at the
under. They are young. They drafted four rookies. At least two of
them are gonna play. I know Shan Gun looks great in the preseason.
John Green should be fine too. Kevin Porter, j you are still new
to this point guard role. I'm very curious to see how he does when
the scouting report is probably more out on him, and I think he looked
he played the point guard role. Well, who's point guard after him?
They've sent John Wallholme. Now you're looking at DJ Augustine like, okay,
not ideal. I do. Green's also heavily an isolation player, so I
do think that you see a lot of him operating as a de facto one
in lineups without Porter. I just don't how's that work out for him at
the NBA. I look, he's one of the best shot makers. I
want to see what he looks like as a playmaker in the NBA. There
After those two then though there's nobody Eric Gordon is gonna be traded or shut
down at some point for this team, Daniel Tye, I wouldn't be surprised
if he got moved. It wouldn't surprise me Chritian Wood got moved. There
are so many just fleeting or transient pieces on this raw plus youngsters where if
they decide to play Josh Christopher or Usman Gruba, and I really do hope
that they play Usman Gruba. Like, this team isn't built to be good.
They have their own draft pick for the next two years. If there's
going to be a tanker, they're going to be among them, aside from
Oklama City, because we know Oklahoma City is tanking their asses off right now.
I'm just you know, they are fun and they have talent, but
that talent by and large is just so inexperienced, so new, so raw.
Unless you tell me that they are going to play Daniel House a bunch
of minutes in crunch time for his defense, that Eric Gordon's going to stay
healthy and play a bunch of minutes, that they play more Christian Wood at
the five than going with dual Biggs with him and Tice, there are too
many question marks here for me to think that they're going to win twenty six
games in a Western Conference where there's very clearly two teams that are much,
much, much worse than everybody else. I think this might be a good
one to put our side wagger on because I just I feel strongly on this
one. It might just be that I'm that high on Porter and think that
he is immediately on the fringes of the All Star conversation even in this first
season, as as the troue point guard. Okay, so if I win
this bet, you have to get shout out Frank Nilikina tattooed somewhere on your
body. That is such high stakes. I can't agree to that one.
Come on, I'll agree to that one, man or person. I can't
agree to that one. Come on. Toxic masculinity right here, right now.
It took me like a year and a half of sitting with an idea
for a tattoo to actually go through with that. You can who is if
you put you can put it somewhere where no one's ever going to see it
aside from LEXI, Yeah, I can't get behind that one. I'm sorry.
The stakes are already too low for my liking. Let's let's move on.
Moving on an awkward segue from the Cleveland Cavalier are from the Houston Rockets.
I'm all flustered. Now to the Indiana Pacers at forty two and a
half wins and you are leading this one off. Thank goodness, because this
is a confusing team. This is show show so tough. They have injuries
to Charaslaft Malcolm Brockden right now, we don't have a timeline for t J.
Warren returning. They do have a new head coach in Rick Carlisle,
who's run Caitlyn Cooper's wrote about this in Indie corn Rows, where there's offensive
stuff that looks intriguing that's worked, but also are they underutilizing the mantis A
bonus somehow, I'm gonna take the over because I ultimately like Rick Carlisle as
a coach. I respect this team's depth. You can people can be labor
the fit between Turner and Sabonus all they want, whether they have to pick
one, how are they closing games? YadA, YadA, YadA, they
could trade Turner, they could keep Turner. I still think as long as
you're telling me that caras Lavert and TJ. Warren are available, if neither
of them misses more than thirty two games this season, I'm gonna I'm still
gonna take the over, maybe twenty five. It's a risk. It's just
they have They're among the teams where I think if you look at their roster
they're going to be among the leaders and just good NBA players, having TJ.
McConnell, even Jeremy Land, just because like Jeremy Land is someone who
helps you bridge the gap of Caros Lavert being out. He's not the same
passer as Caros Lavert. He's not even the same shotmaker because carros Lavert can
hit those off the dribble threes, but like he can get to his spots.
Maybe Christa Arte is good as a rookie, which is not out of
the realm of possibility because he is, you know, like forty years old
coming into the league. Just a little bit more seasons. Justin Holliday one
of the best connectors in the league. I like the Tory Craig pick up.
If he's gonna hit his threes, set threes like he did in Phoenix,
he becomes a much more valuable player. I think they can run some
interesting defensive looks off the bench. Maybe they're not in on Isaiah Jackson as
a rookie. It kind of seems like go go Paz, go go Patz
is an afterthought here. But like you can play you know, O shaper
set up like, and that's someone who's just gonna give you a lot of
switchability on the defensive end. I think they've given Rick Carlisle. Maybe not
enough tools, maybe imperfect tools, maybe not the best fitting tools, but
there are a lot of tools here, and I think that translates to a
team that essentially is better than five hundred and So it's are they gonna win
forty two or forty three? If you're right around there, I'm gonna roll
the dice and say forty three. But I will say Brogden's injury history,
carousel Vert's injury history, and whatever's going on with t. J. Warren
that does make me awfully nervous. Yeah, I don't have much to add
here because I had them at forty five wins for basically the exact same reasons
for me, The biggest thing is Rick Carlisle because he is an elite head
coach, specifically when it comes to making basically anyone into a useful piece.
He's one of the few coaches that I feel like, if you and I
were just like, yeah, we had to play in the NBA now,
he could probably find like some way to make us look like we at least
like kind of belonged sort of, And that's a pretty big compliment because we
don't belong. If it's any consolation, and I blacked out what our guests
did for their teams while I was doing this to make sure that there was
an overlap. The win total has not changed since Caitlyn Cooper and I did
it for them and she took the over. That's consolation. That makes me
feel so much better. I'm don't ask the over because Kaitlyn Cooper picked the
over one of just the smartest, not even Pacers people, just basketball people
alive. So if you want to learn something from an article every time or
podcasts or Twitter podcasts or Twitter, ye, but yeah, I mean this.
It felt like an easy over for me. And there are a lot
of questions about Indiana, but it still felt like an easy over. The
next team did not, because that's the Los Angeles Clippers. They're set at
forty five and a half and I had them at forty two, and they
just I never even considered going over with this team like this was one of
the easiest ones for me because Kawhi Leonard's not going to play. He's not
going to play this season, which makes it even more hilarious. And I
have not told you this story, but in that in that multi sport fantasy
league, we had our basketball draft last week, and the premise of this
league is that you get a thousand dollars to spend between your NHL, NFL,
MLB, and NBA rosters. It's it's thoroughly ridiculous and super fun and
takes up way too much of my time. But our June, our technical
director, completely forgot that Kawhi was hurt and spent fifty four dollars to draft
him, which was I think like the sixth most expensive player in the draft.
So that I have to share that with you because it's just it's amazing
and I got a huge kick out of it. But anyway, Kawhi Leonard
won't be playing, and I don't trust Paul George to carry this team to
fifty wins, especially because I don't trust Eric Bledsoe or Reggie Jackson. In
spite of how good Reggie Jackson looked in the playoffs last year. Luke Kennard
sure, Terrence Man looks great. Nicholas Toomb was resurgent of each Azubach.
When he gets minutes, he can be effective. But I just don't see
it. I do not see a path to being a top end team in
the West. I'm mostly with you. They were plus one point eight points
per one hundred possessions when Paul George played without Kauai last year. Now you
have to extrapolate that again, it's probably more starting units that's tougher. This
team during those minutes was also very reliant upon their defense. They're gonna have
to be even more reliant on there. Now you've lost your best shot creator.
You haven't necessarily replaced him with any high end table center bletso maybe he
picks up on defense. Again, he doesn't really elevate your offense. I
do believe in Reggie Jackson, but what are the odds that you get a
repeat from Nickmatoon? Nickmatoo led you in total minutes last year. Let's say
even he plays as well, is everyone on this team gonna shoot forty plus
percent from three point range? Again, they got a lot of hot three
point shooting last year, so getting shots is gonna be tougher. Are they
gonna be as accurate from three? They should still be in the play in
mix. I just don't. Forty six wins is a lot for a team
that had quiet at all? Do you respect? One of the most candid
answers he gave or gave was him saying he signed the three plus one deal
so that he if he had if he could come back, he would where
he wouldn't be thinking about his next contract in his mind. So maybe there's
a chance, but just I would be shocked if he does come Also,
not pretend Paul George is an injury prone It feels like this is the healthiest
he's gone into a season in a while, but he's gone through a lot
of shoulder issues and those don't tend to be isolated. And look, I
don't I'm not even worrying about a Paul George injury. I just you run
out of firepower very quickly without Kawai, because there what happens what okay,
So here is like the biggest question now is what is happening during the minutes
where he doesn't play, because now you're not staggering Kawaient Paul George anymore.
It's Kawaient Paul George are both off the court, which you get a lot
of Reggie Jackson, a lot of Reggie Jackson. You played about fifteen hundred
possessions with both of them off the court last season, so more then,
like close to twenty percent of your minutes you lost those minutes. The defense
was a disaster. The offense was actually fine, which doesn't surprise me because
if you have Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris Zoobots is a good guy on offense
to have, there's an offensive talent here. But just like now, you
have to extract like those minutes playing without Kawaiet Paul George. Let's just say
that maybe that becomes half your minutes. It's just so tough. So they
might be if you told me they were over five hundred, fine, but
it feels like it'll be like a forty two and forty situation. Not that's
exactly what I said. Yeah, yeah, did it feel to you like
the two Los Angeles teams were the two easiest unders because the Lakers are next,
and they were set a whopping fifty two and a half, likely because
people love the Lakers and the betting markets want to capitalize on that so they
can get away with a little bit of an inflated over under. So yes,
can you guess where I went? Yeah? Where did you go?
And explain? Oh, this is yours first? So I went over.
I just wow, Okay, if Lebron and Davis are on the court,
the Lakers are going to be fine. And I actually they got a lot
of runway out of their minimum deals. I'm just on the mind that Russell
Westbrook probably lowers their postseason ceiling. I think he elevates their regular season ceiling.
The minutes he played without Bradley bal last year in Washington were terrible.
I'd also argue, though, the Lakers just need anybody to handle the ball
and run the offense when Lebron sits, and they were so bad in those
minutes last year, I think Russ ends up helping them there. If you
think that Lebron is going to be on a maintenance program or miss time,
or if you think that Anthony Davis is gonna miss like twenty five games.
I get that people are worried about the defense. They got rid of three
of their top five defenders. You Lebron and a D two of their five
best defenders last year. I think Kuzma, KCP and Alex Caruso were the
other three. They're all gone. That's definitely a concern. Now. Trevor
is already dealing with injuries. I think he's gonna miss eight weeks. Town
Horton Tucker's out to start, and he's pretty pivoble. The floor is gonna
shrink with him. You just if you're trying to get me to bet against
a Lebron James team at this I can't do it. And like they were
twelve games under over excuse me, five hundred last year, and that's while
dealing with just a ton of stuff on their end. And so if they're
even just like a little bit better during the non Lebron minutes, which I
think they can be, this is a team that I think can fairly easily
win at a fifty three win pace. Yeah, I just can't see the
stars all being that available. Like Westbrook has dealt with some injuries too.
Davis is usually good for twenty to twenty five miss games. Lebron is going
to turn forty three this season. It worries me, and I always feel
bad betting against a team with Lebron James on it. I had this at
forty three wins because I think you have to bake in a lot of absences,
and when there are absences, it gets really bleak really fast. Because
this roster, beyond the age concerns that have been mentioned at nauseum, is
just the poster child for name value over actual production. It's just up and
down the roster. It feels like that it's the case, and Vegas knows
that, and I think that they can capitalize on that. But like look
at the NBA Math Crystal Basketball rankings. I'll turn back to those because I
just want to go through where the top members of the Lakers finished. Lebron
finished in a tie for fourth, which awesome. Anthony Davis was at eleventh,
which I think is reasonable. Russell Westbrook was thirty fifth, which might
be too high based on how he's looked in the preseason, how he's been
able to play in previous campaigns in recent memory. But then fourth is Taylon
Horden Tucker in a tie for one ninety third, and he's hurt Kendrick Nunn
tie one ninety five. Malik Monk tied for two thirteen, Dwight Howard tied
for two forty nine, Mellow tied for two fifty six, Areza tied for
two sixty nine, and Hurts Kent Baysmore tied for two eighty seven. Wayne
Ellington at two ninety eight. This roster is not good. It's it's a
serious issue. Even if they stay healthy like that's if you're winning fifty three
games, you're just exhausting your actual stars. You don't think that they have
swing potential here, Like what if Russell Westbrook just ends up being Look,
so I can't If Westbrook fits, if he's a good fit somehow, then
yeah, absolutely this is a title contender. There's I just think there's swing
potential there. I totally get what you're saying. I do think forty three
wins is incredibly low. I can't let me, let me go back to
the five thirty eight projections there though, because five thirty eight had them at
forty two and forty and out of the playoff picture. Look, look if
that I'm very prepared to get burned by this. I just forty two is
so it's Look, the record forty three wins was still seventh in the Western
Conference from mine just because I do think those bottom teams are stealing a lot
of wins this year. So I think I'm just a fall thing to Lebron
eighty being good. If you get I do get that, I'm gonna take
in like ten to twelve absences. Well let's do combine, because Davis might
miss Mortan Lebron, I'm gonna take in like twenty to twenty four combined absences
between them, and I do still that made me think, I just if
it was very easy to be like, hey, they'll win fifty and go
fifty and thirty two. I just I can't like it's it's Lebron, Like,
I just can't. I know, last season went the way it did,
but like he was banged up towards the end anthy Davis was bad.
He was banged up entering this well bad. That was bad by his standards.
I just think, you know, the game might even get easier for
him playing with Russ in the minutes that Lebron doesn't play just because he had
a problem with the lack of chemistry alongside Dennis Shrewder. I'm I'm fully ready
prepared to get banged up by this. I think what I'm actually most concerned
about, it's not the age. It's not even the injury history with Anty
Davis. It's not even the fit with Russell Westbrook. It's the defense.
Is because it's the lake, it might if it's not. Anthony Davis has
to be defensive Player of the Year. I think he is one of the
most underappreciated defenders in the game because what he does, it manifests in more
than blocks and steals, because he's just like he does everything. And yes,
I think they've put him in positions to where it'd be nice if he
played more center. We can make jokes. It doesn't seem like he's gonna
start games at center this year. I think he's still The other thing that
kind of told me on this after thinking about it, was I think he
ends up playing two thirds of his minutes at center when all is said and
done, and I think that's the recipe for the team to be fine.
I think they've gotten enough, you know, complimentary shooting around what is otherwise
a clunky star Trio. Lebron has been a pretty good shooter over the past
few years. Monkey's automatic I expected to play mellow Is. Look, sometimes
I think we just overrate someone who can score fifteen points a game and shoot
like forty percent on catching shoot threes. I understand he's bad on defense.
You know, I don't know that Molligue Monker. Kendrick Nunn is just much
better on defense. You do have Kem Bay's Moore here if Trevor Reason gets
healthy. So there are lineups that I think you can come together where it's
three to four, where it's three out, because I don't know what you
want to consider. Davis Rustbrook's a non shooter. Davis is probably closer to
a non shooter than not even if he's taking those but Lebron and then two
other shooters, I think you have a pathway to building a good amount of
those lineups. This isn't my most confident pick. I want to make that
clear. I just a lot of things to me have to go wrong for
them to be like barely five hundred and ending up in playing or a lottery
territory. Right now, I guess I could just as easily see a scenario
where the defense is going to be that bad. Lebron is a brilliant basketball
player. It recognizes that and starts really trying on defense again and has to
see more offensive responsibilities to Westbrook, which isn't going to go well, then
you don't have any players to take over. I just I see the disaster
potential here, but them still talenting their way into the playoffs. I'm just
I'm like, I'm gonna I should take a screenshot of our faces right now
on zoom because my look of just like, I'm so disillusioned by everything you
just said. I want to take one just to see my reaction to your
big I'm really just like, I don't know if they I'm prepared to get
burned. I would still have thought that you would have had them like more
comfortably above five hundred territory. Now, this is a pretty easy one for
me. Let's we just spent way too much time in the Lakers, which
I guess is part of the course. Let's move on to the Memphis Grizzlies.
Mimitus Grizzlies were set at forty one and a half. I ended up
having them at forty four, so comfortably on the overside here, which probably
shouldn't be a surprise after how high it was on them last year. Jaren
Jackson Jr. Is fully healthy, looks really good during the preseason. If
he is even a shadow of what he's supposed to be, this team takes
a big stride. Desmond Baine. I think there's a leap there. Do
Anthony Melton gonna get big minutes. John Morant potential for a leap there.
Steven Adams looks like a really good fit with this roster. Kyle Anderson is
awesome. Jarret Culver might be good at basketball someday, but probably not this
season. Dylan Brooksman, he is healthy. I think that he brings a
lot on defense and at least gives you an aggressive, albeit inconsistent and probably
too much of a takeover score. And there's a place for that on a
roster like this. I just like a lot about this team. I can't
believe we're going to do this again. I'm picking the under I got burned
by it last year. Jaren Jackson Juniors had some really nice moments. It's
a tradition on this podcast, right we just it has to happen. For
what It's more, Sharon Brown is with you. She picked the over for
the Grizzlies as well, and it was the same win total that we were
using. I've always said Sharon is always right. So they they very clearly
steered out of the immediate picture over the off season to me by making that
you on his found run his trade. I don't know if there's going to
be this huge drop off to Steven Adams. Maybe the defense gets a little
bit better there, but this team is just they're structured in a way that
I think something's going to happen, whether it's a Kyle Anderson trade. What
if there's a Danthe Melton drop off, who shot like a trillion percent from
three? Are they going to prioritize the development of Zaiyar Williams give Desmond Bain
more on ball responsibility, which the last both of those actually I think they
should. I like Zaya Williams, and I am so high on Desmond Baine
it's not even funny. John Moran. I do expect him to get better,
and he's shown like just flashes of being more diverse when it comes to
the mid range game and the types of three is that he's taking. If
he turns into just that every level score that ends up being absolutely huge.
The West is just it's still brutal to me. And I don't think this
team is as concerned with making a dent now as people think I am.
I don't have like a feel for where they're going to rank on offense or
defense this year, which is kind of just this red flag to me.
So I'm going I'm going under it's reluctant because they burned me two years in
a row. I didn't have them in the playoffs and I'm essentially not having
them in the playoffs again, and they've disproved me twice. I'll learn my
lesson at some point. It's apparently not right now, though my forty four
wins from Memphis actually had them at number six in the Western Conference for me,
So I think they're going to be comfortably a playoff team this year.
I just I'm ready for that big Jamran leap where it's like the leap that
leaves no doubt about whether he's going to be an All Star, even given
the ridiculous card depth within the Western Conference. I don't have that doubt right
now. I'm just like, do they have enough shooting around him? Do
they have enough secondary shot creation around him? You know, Dylan Brooks will
get healthy and should be fine. I just I don't know what this team's
identity ends up being. I just I don't have a great feel. I'm
not surprised by this one at all, though, because I know we differ
on Dylan Brooks, and we've on a previous podcast episode disagreed on whether Kyle
Anderson is going to stay in town, so I totally understand why we're on
opposite sides of this one. I want to move on to the Miami Heat.
Let's do it. It's at forty eight and a half and you are
up first. This was really hard because I just I love the top five
on the roster, and I remained a Tyler Hero believer. I think people
are probably two all the way out on him, in large part because of
that report that they wouldn't give him up in a James Harden trade, where
I've been over this before. My theory is you let that leak out because
you had no path to getting James Harden anyway, So why even make it
seem like you're discussing Tyler Hero publicly. It gets iffy after those six Demon
was fine last year, but we're like two years removed from Duane Demon being
really good. Max Struce and or Gabe Vinson are gonna have to be part
of this rotation. Victual the people is expected to play and they definitely do
not need as much out of Victual. Ladipo was the Pacers did. Just
what does he look like? There are you gonna get? Is there enough
spacing on this team? Jimmy Butler is still not a three point volume guy.
PG Tucker is not a three point volume guy. Even when they're going
in. You're putting an awful lot of bam Adebayo has not stretched beyond the
arc just yet. You're putting an awful lot of pressure in your starting live
up on Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson, and you can also throw Tyler here
on the line up. You can have three shooters fairly easily and and you
get to play. They're passed to playing three four out, five out is
probably not happening with this team. They feel like a playoff team. They're
gonna not They're gonna fuck around during the regular season, but they're they're older
and I or I shouldn't say they are older, but Jimmy Butler and Kyle
Lowry are kind of up there, and this feels like the quintessential. They're
gonna care the most when the playoffs roll around, especially given what happened to
them when they just got the shit kicked out of them by Milwaukee in the
postseason next year. So it wouldn't surprise me if they ended up being a
fifty win team. I just this doesn't feel like a regular team that's gonna
peak in the regular season. And even if their top five six players are
great, you're still gonna run into those depth issues. This team feels like
it should be rounding into form around the playoffs, when either they've made moves
at the trade deadline, maybe they've capitalized on the buyout market, and or
Victor Ladipo was back, had some games under his belt, and if he's
your sixth or seventh man, BA becomes like this huge luxury and he's sort
of like one of the biggest swing pieces in the Eastern Conference. I would
argue, if you get even sixty five percent of the player people thought Victor
Ladipo was a few years ago, that changes the whole complexion. It might
really have been a few years ago. We should say, what's that he
might really have been. He might really have been that player a few years
ago. Like it's not to say that's a fluke, No, I'm just
saying, like injuries are, who knows what happens if he was still healthy
exactly. I'm just terrifying he's theoretically like, I don't think they would start
him, although that would be really fun if you had, Like they should
definitely play him with Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler. At the same time,
that's a lot of ball handling. I throw Tyler Hero in there too.
He those four ball handlers. That being said, if he's like your seventh
guy or like just coming off the bench for you, that still feels like
something that's going to be most valuable in the playoffs when he comes back has
repped under his belt, and when I think that this team is just going
to be more locked in. I don't want to discount the coaching job that
Ers Ballister is going to do for them to clear this though. You have
to tell me that not only did Tyler Hero make a huge jump, they
had pristine health and that basically everyone on their bench outperformed expectations. This is
a funny one, and I should note again that I did my win projections
before even looking at the over under lions. I was at forty eight wins,
which means that I am also on the underside, just barely. But
I still feel like I have to talk really positively about this team to justify
it, which to me just it feels like this over under was set really
high because I fully expected once I put that number down to be talking about
it like it was an over I think it comes down to me having done
a one eighty on Hero where just the more I've watched him this preseason,
the more I've been convinced that he's ready to be a legitimately positive, big
minute contributor to the point that he can float some lineups, and that coupled
with thinking we see a lot of positive from Max Strusce and liking Kazo Paula
Ala kaze O Paula. There's I was hesitant on this one, but I
just ended up really liking the construction of the team beyond the lack of depth,
and thinking that it makes a lot of sense. I'm just I'm giggling
woun't take a screenage out of me giggling too? What a post these somewhere
at some point because you literally were just justifying the heats over or their path
to the over being good, and you were using Kazipola and Max Druce is
just like the examples. I just I know, man, this is me.
Can I do like the Lowry Jimmy Butler Bam Autobio pairing is so good
and fun, especially with Duncan Robinson to space the court around it here,
So it's going to be a nightmare to play against this team when Lowry,
Butler, Tucker and Autobio are all on the court playing defense there. I
don't know, I don't know, like it's it's such a weird one because
I thought I was low on this team and then I felt like I ended
up being high on this team and it's still technically the under I'm just confused
behind the sauces be made here. Are you okay with your screenshot of your
face being covered by a microphone being posted on Twitter as we record this?
I mean sure, a lot of hairlines, jerks. I don't even think
that they could really see. I could just post my reaction to it because
I look, you're I don't want to put Russell Westbrook is not as good
as i'd probably put in behind all three of the Heat stars. But you're
worried about his fit in Los Angeles, But you're not worried about like the
Lakers playing of the Heat playing two non three point shooters with an iffy volume
three point shooter and PJ Tucker who's also eighty years old, like you just
but because they have Duncan Robinson, Like the spacing is gonna be final,
Kyle Lowrys. I don't think it's gonna be a great offensive team. I
think it's gonna be a very difficult team to play against him to swoar against.
Can we move on? I just like Christmas Tough, it wouldn't surprise
me if they were over. I just you have a lot more faith in
Like I'm probably most intrigued if I'm picking, like the don't have a lot
of surprise. I'm just max strus. I didn't even pick the over.
I still picked the under. You're like you're talking with this like confidence about
Kasyapaala, Like what who they the first time they never seen because you were
But it's because you were so low they treated like fifty second round picks to
get him. They shouldn't even have him. And you're just like, they
might be a fifty win team because they have Kasey hawk Polla coming off the
bench. I'm gonna be like semi floord if he plays a real role for
them in the regular season. And I know you picked the understill, but
like you almost made this an easier under decision for me than it was in
the first place. I feel like I feel like cruly blowing this Pola thing
out of proportion, where I'm just saying he's a piece that I'm intrigued by,
like the reason they're gonna win forty eight games. Can we move on
to the Bucks? Please? Sure? Milwaukee Bucks were set at fifty four
and a half, and fuck I have to go first on this one.
Right after all of that, I end them at fifty four wins. And
to me, it's just purely a matter of motivation, where I think in
terms of pure talent, they are unquestionably a team that could push towards sixty
wins if we wanted to, or else it wouldn't have won a title and
come back with l largely a similar roster, so Chris Middleton, Jannis brook
Lopez, a healthy Dante de Vincenzo, Pat Connad and looked like you could
actually play at points. I think Grayson Allen plays a role in this team,
all defense, Drew Holiday. It's a very good team, but I
also think it recognizes that it can get away with playing Jannis for thirty minutes
a game this season because it has bigger aspirations than winning regular season games.
So you went with the under. I went with the under, and again
just purely a question a matter of motivation, where I just I don't I
think it experiments a lot. I think the Bucks are trying to give Jordan
Noura a path to having actual minutes of significance by overplaying them a little bit.
The big man depth behind Jannis and brook Lopez is a little bit questionable.
I'm not sure I buy Bobby portis being a sustainable big minute peace and
beyond that they're really grasping at straws or playing with really small lineups. I
think that there's a lot of experimentation done, and this is a dominant team
in the playoffs that just doesn't push towards sixty wins. So have you watched
the honest the preseason he is. I saw Jason Maples on Twitter put it
this, His shooting form looks really smooth. It does. He's playing with
that championship confidence. It just feels like he's figured it out. And this
was dating back to the playoffs before He's even he doesn't need to hit these
jumpers. It feels like he is so freaking confident in how he's going to
play on offense now, and it's fine doing more of the off ball stuff
down the stretch of light games. They were a little bit fortunate with their
health. They still won the title without Dante di Vincenzo, who was their
fifth for Maybe maybe some people will take him over Brook Lopez. I wouldn't
just yet. He's their fifth best player, definitely one of their five most
important players. He'll come back at some point. I am a little bit
more concerned about the overall depth than others. You know, Ty Windis who
I spoke with about the Bucks. He's very confident in Bobby Portis sort of
replicating the postseason that he had. I'd be a little bit more skeptical.
I do think they did okay with like their bargain Bins. I was surprised
that George Hill got more than the minimum after the season that he had last.
And George Hill is still a lot better than Jeff t And the last
time George Hill was good, he was in Milwaukee. I still remain intrigued
by Rodney was just a nightmare. Could not throw an entry pass to save
his life as a point guard. Just a disaster. Yeah, but I
also think so Grayson Nowan's shooting I think helps give you a little bit of
ball handling. I also think either he or Rodney Hood are just gonna be
good for this team. Maybe it's both. I really just I love the
idea of Rodney Hood, but he's been more of concept than actual player for
so long now. Shemy oderlay is the closest they can get to a PJ.
Tucker facts simile, And I actually don't think he's that far off where
Tucker gives you more defense in the playoffs. We're not talking about the playoffs
here. The Bucks still feel like they're built to do great in the regular
season. And the other thing I'll point out is that they're no longer going
to be trying to implemate implement Excuse me as much new stuff. They've gone
through, some of the offensive motions, they've tried out, the new defensive
coverages. The fact that they're going to be more used to that that Drew
Holiday is no longer knew. Yeah, if they're trying to carve it a
role for Jordan Wire, like, yeah, that could take some time working
down to even Shenzel back in the rotation. Is Brook Lopez so old that
maybe there's regression from him at this point as a backline rim protector or as
an offensive player he was doing. I think people now know him as like
this long range bomber that wasn't really his game last year he was still effective.
I'm just there's so many different ways this roster can play, including Jannie
as the true five, not playing next to Lopez or Portus, and I
would still be intrigued by those minutes. Chris Milton still borderline All NBA candidate
in my mind. Drew Holidays absolutely, you know, he carries one of
the heavy Well maybe not so, but he's just he's so good on defense
and he can carry really heavy workloads, help you float lineups while running the
offense, also guarding the opponent's best player. This was an easy over for
me, and I get that you. I get the championship Malays. I
could totally understand it. If Janice and Drew and Middleton weren't the stars on
this team, maybe I would vibe that, but they just don't know that.
I'm looking at like, I don't feel like it's championship Malays so much
as just deprioritizing the regular season to that extent. I think, and I
haven't finalized this yet, so it's not like firmly on the record, but
I think that Milwaukee is probably going to be my title pick this year.
And I still I just I think we see ten to twelve games that Jannest
just sits out of plays thirty minutes a game, because the only mission he
has now as a two time MVP and one time champion is going to be
winning that second title and validating it. Just seeking that title validation, not
necessarily during the regular season. One. I'm still thinking about your Kasya Polan
from before you predicted that he was gonna Yeah, I see that there's a
new tweet up from from your account here. That's a fun one to disagree
on. I actually thought that was going to be an easy over for you
with Milwaukee, I'm intrigued by that one. If you weren't such a coward,
it's much like it's much like Denver where to me, it's it's very
much a compliment to its title chances that I'm going with the on. I
have a feeling I know where you're gonna pick for the Minnesota Timberwolves, though
you're probably gonna be correct, but it is you first. They're set at
thirty five and a half, so you're gonna have to wait and find out
later. I went with the under. This one was actually fairly tough for
me. I wanted to go with the over because I love the idea of
their top five players. Jared Vanderbilt probably starts with karl Anthy Towns, but
the five man lineup of Malik Beasley, Towns, Jane McDaniels, Di Loo,
and Auntie Edwards, who was fantastic to close the year last year super
intriguing. I do like a lot of their individuals coming off the bench.
Patrick Beverley definitely helps them. Jared Vanderbilt is a human energy drink and it's
gonna really give you some just juice on the glass. I just the wing
rotation after the starting lineup gets iffy, you're gonna have to rely on Torrian
Prince they've tried playing, because it seems like they're still searching for that four
next to Towns. It doesn't seem like they want Jane McDaniels to play a
ton of power forward. They've tested out more of nas reading cat. I
don't necessarily like that fit. I don't even know if I love the Jared
Van under built Karl Anthony Town's fit. They are one player short of just
me being really confident. I don't know if I would have them as a
playoff team. What gets tricky here is if they're the team that trades for
Ben Simmons, because regardless of what they give up, as long as Edwards
and Towns are still on the team, which they would be, you don't
trade Towns or Edwards quite frankly, for Ben Simmons. This would be an
easy over for me. I just don't think they're going to be the team
that ultimately gets there. That would have to be like a three four,
five team trade machination. That would be super complicated. Because I think the
Sixers would like Jane McDaniels. I think they could use my league, Beasley,
but you need to find another team. De'angel Russell is not it for
them, and I think you need to find another team that in theory,
it makes sense given what Minnesota has done in the past, to bet against
their future and take on picks to send Philly something and perhaps that team comes
out of the woodwork once the season gets underway. I'm not gonna go out
on a limb, though, and say that the Minnesota is the team that
gets Ben Simmons. So I'm going reluctant me under and this feels like a
risk, But I'm I don't know. They're like after their top six seven
guys. I just I have a lot of questions, and even if they
get great health, the defense should still be pretty terrible. Like there's some
low hanging fruit, like get all the way back in transition. A lot
of people have said Auntie Edwards has gotten better. I actually think he improved
away from the ball later on in the season too. Jade McDaniels is fantastic.
I just I don't know there's I think they're still gonna be very bad
on the defensive and the offense should be lights out And it's not like we
haven't seen Carlo. I don't want to use Covid as an example with him,
but like he's had injury issues in the past, we've only seen him
playing eighty five games over the past two seasons, so many circumstances beyond his
control. For that, I want to make that clear. D'Angel Russell was
dealt with stuff. I guess you could say Patrick Beverley is probably forever overrated
at this point, even though he works offensively as a guy who can play
off the ball and in furious someone who's gonna defend. They just there's still
too many questions, and I just bigger thing for me would be, even
if you get the best performances from all their best players, is this team
even twenty first in points allowed per possession? I would say no. I
think I'm a little higher on the defense than you, which might not be
too much of a surprise, but I did have them winning thirty nine games,
so comfortably over but still not really a playoff team. As for the
defense, I do think that there are lineups that are feasibly good defensively,
especially if we get the version of Karl Anthony Towns that I'm expecting given his
motivation and his health right now, because I feel like we've largely forgotten just
how good he is. Where he's just a game warping, once in a
generation offensively talented big who was also trending towards being a legitimate semi plus on
defense before these injuries and the COVID diagnosis and all of the trauma that he
had to deal with over the last year took a toll, and he wasn't
as effective last year. So with him anchoring a lineup at the five,
like if you're putting Jayden McDaniels, a vastly improved version of Anthony Edwards,
Josha Kogi, and Patrick Beverley on the floor, that's a good defensive lineup.
It's not a great one, but I see a path towards this team
being maybe like eighteenth on defense with a deadly enough offense that it can win
a lot of games. Again, I still don't think it's a deep team,
that it's a playoff team, but it's the most cohesive Minnesota team we've
seen in a long time, with a potential dual star lineup with Anthony Edwards
and Carl Anthony Towns. That's why we're so tough because Towns is borderline top
ten player league. He's definitely top fifteen when he's healthy, top fifteen,
top twenty, whatever you want to call it, and I do agree with
you, and I think it's a part. We've seen him play like eighty
five games the past two seasons. That's why we've forgotten how good he is.
Because it's ridiculously good. And if you're going to get the Edwards,
you did it close last year. Who's just better on defense. There's a
path to the over for them. I will say this next team. Thirty
eight had forty wins. By the way, what's that five? Thirty eight
had forty wins for the Timberwolves. Projection systems have to love the idea of
Edwards with Towns. That has to be a thing that just helps out of
time. New Orleans Pelicans. I didn't have to think as hard about this
one. I don't know about you. I didn't either, and they were
set at thirty eight and a half. I went thirty seven, so it
was under but I never really considered moving them out that much. While we
don't know what the return timetable is for Zion Williamson and his foot because If
he's absent this the whole makeup of this team is fundamentally altered. I don't
know that you really want brandon Ingram carrying a team. I do really like
the DeVante Graham fit with this team. There's some intriguing depth that's not there
yet. I will forever be a big Jonas Valentinis fan. I think that
he is another strong fit in theory. A lot of this team makes sense,
but with the Zion question mark, and I think the question mark even
goes beyond the injury to the motivation portion a little bit. Sometimes it's just
unless you're projecting just this massive leap for Alexander Walker, which is reasonable,
and I think there's one a path to him becoming a useful starter, probably
not a fringe star this season, And if that doesn't happen, I just
I don't see where the production is coming without Zion on the floor for seventy
five games. Did you just say Zion's gonna miss seventy five games? No,
I said without like, unless he's playing seventy five games. I was
wondering if you were trying to put a fast one there. So I agree
with everything you said, I would echo it. I also think, after
thinking about their offseason, I'm not low. I'm not as low on it
as I once was. But they did an awful lot to sort of just
end up at the same point in my book, where you're probably just banking
more on internal development getting you a lot better. I love Trey Murphy with
his team. I hope they play Naji Marshall a bunch. The fit with
joannasm on Tunis is fine. I think he helps you most in the non
Zion minutes, which is a big deal. But now those non Zion minutes
are being extrapolated, and that was just that was it for me. I
think brandon Ingram's a given. I think Devonte Graham is probably better than he
was last year. And Charlotte still can't finish at the rim, though luckily
the Pelicans are used to watching a point guard in Lonza Ball who can't finish
it the rim either. I just how much time is he missing and what
type of shape is he in when he comes back. I don't think that
there's like this they're gonna blow up this roster. I also don't think they're
gonna trade for a major upgrade. I also think that there's a chance.
What if Devonte Graham is not better than he was last season on top of
the Zion injury, so much shit is then compounded. This team is so
confusing to me short and long term. I don't even know if I would
have him at the over with Zion playing in seventy five games, but I
think it did comfortably comfortably. I don't look Zion is. I think they've
built well around him. I just don't know if there's a hymn to be
around fair I guess. But what it boils down to for this subject specifically,
we don't have to deal on the hypothetical over under Zion missing twenty two
games this season? Are you taking me over the under? I'm gonna say
he misses more than that, and so am I And I don't know how
this team gets to forty wins issue if he's gonna miss like more than a
quarter of the season. Yeah, I mean, I viewed thirty seven as
like a note of confidence compared to where the perception is about their supporting cast.
But I'm just so worried about Zion. This was that was easy for
me. I don't want them to be bad and Zion is entertaining as hell,
and I think, look, they can run some really fun lineups too,
especially naw Zion Brandon Ingram give me Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy put Zion
at the five. I know they probably won't do that, but I would
love to see shit like that. It's just and the whole like, we're
never gonna know the extent of his injury at this point, because we didn't
know about it until Media Day and actual media members where you know how news
breaks, trades, injuries, whatever, and you have people coming out saying,
yeah, like we had heard this and that, like they were actually
plugged in people who were flabbergasted when they heard about his foot on Media Day,
and then it took forever to hear the news about his scan. And
it seems like he's at least as we record this, like two and a
half weeks away from like being cleared for anything. I if he's back before
Thanksgiving, I will be pleasantly surprised. I hope he is. Hope.
I don't want teams to be bad, and Zienon is one of the most.
He's also good. It's not just that he's this novel entertaining player.
Point Zion was a revelation last year and spectacular, and I think that they,
like I said, they're built to better navigate the minutes without him this
year, if only because I think Devonte Graham puts more traditional pressure on the
defense and they half court than Lonzo Ballwood, even if he's still not a
good shooter, like he's just that type of point card. And then Jonas
Valancrudas could just mash on if he's playing in the second unit without playing with
bench players and Zions off the court in ways that Steven Adams. That's never
something that he was going to do in Crystal Basketball. And I don't know
if you've had a chance to look at the finished product yet since we're recording
shortly after its full release, But Zion was in a tie for eighteen and
it was the strangest tie imaginable. Have you seen who he was tied with?
I did not. It is a five way tie for the eighteenth spot
between Kyrie Irving, Zion Williamson, Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Riddy Gobert,
which was just a hilarious group of players with such vastly differing play styles.
But I think it says a lot about the company that we thought Zion
already kept. It's if availability is a skill. There's definitely a debate as
to where he belongs in that pecking order. If you're kind of just removing
the injury concerns, I think he's the best player of that bunch. That's
fair. We're now on the New York Knicks, and I have a feeling
where like, well behind the pace we've set for ourselves. I was,
I kept we were actually doing pretty good, and then we talked about the
Lakers, and I've just stopped looking at it since. So, yeah,
is this mine? This is yours? And if the New York Knicks said
at forty one and a half, I'm taking me over, I took the
under last year, and I think what they're over under last were set like
twenty one point five, and I still took the under. I will say
I want to see the receipts for people who are mad about that, or
who are mad that you want to see the Knicks look. I've had like
there were commenters I wrote something for br I wasn't even dumping on the Knicks.
I just said something like there is a question, can they be this
good again? Because you get like, show me the receipts where you said
they were going to be four in the East. If you just want to
assume they're sustainable, what makes me uneasy about this. I'm not worried about
the injuries there. They could still win forty something games even if Kenba's left
knee is shot. I just they really leaned into offense, which made sense
given how their playoff series against the Hawks unfold. But you're banking a lot
on the defense, sustaining without what was your most important perimeter defender, and
Reggie Bullock. You've not decided if that's gonna be RJ Barrett. He's looked
great on defense in preseason. I just, are you gonna get as lucky
with opponent three point shooting this year? I could see. I could see
a scenario where they miss this. But it's not dooming gloom just because the
East is better. The roster's just a little bit tilted too far towards offense
first personnel. But look, if Mitchell Robinson's healthy, and if Julius Randall
is let's say he's not, Let's say second team All NBA shouldn't be the
standard. If top twenty five top thirty. Is the new Julius Randall,
You're golden. I think RJ. Barrett's gonna explode. I am so high
on RJ. Barrett, it's probably not even funny at this point. I
would like I hope they've run units where he gets more on ball reps.
I've seen a lot of him in the corner during the preseason. He's a
good enough three point shooter and mover off the ball where I guess that doesn't
matter, you know, splitting hairs here, picking me over. I feel
pretty good about it. I am just curious, like, does this team's
identity flip at all? Because they really and it's not like they got rid
of all these different defenders, but you've now decided, like Evan four days
not good on defense. I know people have said, like he's better than
expected, Kemma Walker tries, but he was bad last year. We don't
know how much of that has to do with the knees. Derrek Rows was
better than expected last year. How good is Nordo's Noell going to be as
good as he was last year? Is Mitchell Robinson fully healthy? Julius Randall
had a career year defensively, Yeah, you can assume some of that's going
to translate to this season, but there were just a lot of when you
look at players, including Alec Burks's fourth quarter performance last season, there were
a lot of players that just had these anomalous seasons relative to the rest of
their career, and you are dealing with some ambiguity when that happens. I
tend to think that the team we saw I don't want to say the team,
because I feel like they're different. Even though they didn't overhaul the roster,
I still feel like they're different. But when you look at the individuals,
I think that they were more authentic than not. I don't expect this
huge drop off, but this also wasn't like a no brainer for me.
It feels like there's a lot of potential for things to go wrong. You
know, Kemba Walker's knee, the three point defense, and Julius Randall regressations
since so many of the shots that he took were just such a high degree
of difficulty, the baseline fadeaway jumpers and all that. Mitchell Robinson and nerlans
Nowell have not exactly been the picture of health, and I was still over
I had them at forty four wins because there's just so much talent on this
team. I do think, you know, as you mentioned Julius Randall as
a top twenty five thirty player, they're golded and there's a very real chance
of that happening. Mitchell Robinson is healthy right now, and if he's able
to make the impact that he has in the past in smaller roles and smaller
minutes, that's huge. Obie Toppen looked more capable, Alec Burks looked more
capable last year. Forty is a great offensive addition. RJ. Barrett has
so much upside. Derek Rose totally revitalized that team during the second half of
the year on offense. There's a lot to like here, just as there's
a lot of room for concern. So I never felt confident in this one,
and I also had no clue where the line was going to be set,
so I landed at forty four. And I do think that it's one
of those teams that isn't comfortably in the playoff picture, but is fully in
it throughout the season. And there's something too, even though they have players
who are injury risks on their team, and also you can ask him,
Joy's random play as much as he did last season, Like that was he
played an insane amount of minutes. Kids can run this team a ground and
sort of just know that there's a guy behind every person. The only play.
There are two players they can't afford to lose, and it's it's RJ.
Barrett Julie Random because r J. Barrett is to me, they're single
most important defender this year. I'm not saying he's gonna be their best,
but you need someone who can check. You know, he's guard Bradley Beale
against the Wizards and he did. I thought he did a pretty good job.
Like you need him to be that guy, and if he's injured,
you don't have that, like is it you know, are they gonna play
Duce McBride. He's also smaller. Quentin Grimes smaller than RJ as well,
so there are injury and then Julius Randalls just because you don't have you can
replace him with Obi Toppin, but like, that's Julius Randall is He's here's
your star right now, so they can't. And I guess even then,
it's like, well what if Kemba is Kemba like or like eighty percent of
the Kemba that Boston thought they were acquiring, which is still possible. There's
a path to you still being fine. It's just the team's depth is a
real bood for them, because I think that they That's not my question their
injuries or even their offensive talent anymore. It's just is there was any of
the last season an illusion? And I think you have to focus on defense
given the way that this roster is now built, and if it's not.
Look, I'm not saying they need to be top five events. If they're
If they're fourteenth, fifteenth in defensive efficiency and their offenses is better, like
as improved as much as it looks like it improved on paper, they might
be. They might blow this projection out of the water where we're wondering,
Oh, where they're like fifth, they're sixth, They're seventh in the East.
They could finish fourth again. If you told me that they were the
team that finished just below Milwaukee and Brooklyn and they outpaced Atlanta for number three,
would I be mildly surprised? Sure, but I wouldn't, you know,
if the defense is okay, I wouldn't be by that. I'm so
high in Atlanta that, but I'm also trying to set it like there's a
lot of offensive talent on this team now, and ye it just gives them
a lot of options. So I kind of worry a little bit about the
Tibodau effect with this roster because he has he's not too compromising on the schemes
he runs, and I just don't know that the personnel fit the scheme as
well. This year. I look that a defense specifically, because they still
like gave up a good amount of shots at the rim last year. It's
just the rim protection was so great. And then also look the opponent three
point shooting. I do think when you look at the way RJ. Barrett
defended and some of their clothesouts and rotations, I think they were a good
team at defending the three point line. You don't have opponent shooting. I
think they were sub thirty four percent outside of garbage time. That's not skill.
You didn't decide who was taking threes all the time. You got lucky,
and what happens if you don't get lucky again? Right, I don't
know. And you're dedicating more big minutes to more offensive sieves, you know,
just with the addition of Fournier, who isn't the worst defender of the
NBA, but isn't an asset. But anyway, gonna move on to the
Oklahoma City thunder. Do we do we even have to spend time on them?
They kind of wanted to group them in the Magic together because they're both
at twenty two and a half. So do you have them over or under?
I had both of those under, both of those over. Sorry,
I had both of those under. So okay, let's go one by one.
So, oh yeah, Oklahoma City, yours start with them? You
you did? I'm sorry, I'm outing you on this one. You said
that Oklahoma City has more you, No, you has more potential all Stars?
Then what was the team I forgot? I came in Spurs. You
said, Oklavisity is more potential All Stars this year than the Spurs. Now,
I'll tell you no, I didn't say this year. I did not
say this year, just in general in terms of their their rebuilding process that
on the roster right now, that's less egregious. I would also say your
pathway to be right this season, now that they think about it, actually
isn't too far fetched because you would just be saying Shay is an All Star.
No one else on the Spurs is, and that's really not making that
much of a leap because that is set up the most likely outcome. I
think, Yeah, no, I had them over because I have them at
twenty five wins. Still nothing too impressive. But I do think that we're
talking about shay Gil just Alexander as an All NBA candidate this year, not
just an All Star candidate. Awesome. Do you know who was also an
All NBA candidate last year and his team was still pretty bad shay Gil Justi
Alexander. Yeah, that's my point, absolutely, But you also have more
stabilizing presences now. Derek As is there if he lasts the season there,
Poku has more experience. Lu Dort is still there, and then Darius Baisley,
who I do really like the scoring upside there. Josh Giddy if he
can make any sort of impact during his rookie season, that's a benefit to
this team. I don't think it's going to be a good team, but
there are just so many intriguing players here, led by one of the best
players you're going to find on a full fledged rebuilding team that I do think
that there is material upside. Now that's said, that could all go to
hell when Shay gets shut down if they trade favors, like that's the risk
here. But do you even need to do that when you have roughly four
hundred and eighteen million first round draft picks in the next year and a half.
You don't. But this team I think has a sour taste in his
mouth because of how the lottery played out this year where they dropped and they
didn't get Houston's pick. This is I'm gonna I want to break it down
and look, the cynic in me is gonna say, if they go better
than two and eight to start the season, shankill Jo Dander's getting tated to
preserve the tank. He can't because of the extension. But you get you
get my gist that I rank who who are okay Sy's top five players?
Shay is obviously number one, Lou Dorrick, Darius Baisley, Derek Favers would
round out the clear top four, and I don't know on five. It
could be Giddy, it could be Maladon, it could be Poku, it
could be ken Rich Williams. Thank you for mentioning him. Kendris Williams is
I think he's my answer for the fifth best player right now. But I
think he also has less upside than the other people I'm mentioning. I just
I like Darius Baisley two. I like that top four. Yeah, it's
but they're not good. It's just no, they're not good yet. Where
is the like, where's the offense? The scoring? All offense on this
team coming from barred under twenty games though, I'm not saying they're gonna it's
one of the rosters this bad. I just there's so much uncertainty surrounding after
Shay excuse me, and you just have yet Giddy. He's like a really
good pastor and he's better on defense than I expected too, by the way,
But like where's and the same with Maladon, Like where's the scoring?
You need Poku to pop? He's gonna average like twenty a game out of
necessity. But even when he was having like a higher scoring clothes to the
end of the year last year, it wasn't efficiently. He still together a
lot of shots, and I think what happens is they don't have a lot
of players in place to simplify the game for everybody else. I think having
Giddy and Shay and Maladan will help that. But there's just like, I
don't even not I think that the shape heart's a big one because he's gonna
he's he's reached the level at which he's gonna draw enough defensive attention that he
is making life a lot easier on everyone else. I just think that this
is gonna end up being the worst team in the NBA, and that the
maybe the Magic the Magic of the Thunder gonna be one of the worst teams
in the NBA. And if you do, I have them finishing fifteenth in
the West here, So all right, So here's my thing. Fifteen in
the West won seventeen games last year. In the seventeen I just think it's
more spread out this season. Yeah, I don't. I don't know.
But if I could see the Kings and that Timberwolves just like poaching wins from
them, I think the Warriors are a little bit better. So I'm comfortably
under here. I'm not saying that I think John Hollinger had them. Hollinger
had them at like like thirteen or something. I think they'll win. If
the over underwars like fifteen, I might take the over. But I think
they're gonna win fewer than twenty five games. And apparently you also think that
about the Orlando Magic, who are likewise set at twenty two and a half.
Their offensive situations even worse. It is sorry, my voice is squeaking.
I love Archie Hampton game is so smooth. He looks more confident this
year. If anyone's watched Wendell Carter Junior, the proud owner of a four
year, fifty million dollars extension both him and Vernon Garret Junior. Apparently,
you guys will never know that joke because I edited it out. However,
it's funny. It's inside joke. Now he Wendel counter Junior just looks free
in Orlando. Still needs to look at the basket more. You don't want
your primary center, especially if you want to run stuff through him taking fewer
than ten shots for thirty six minutes like he did during the preseason. But
he hits some threes, put the ball on the floor and made some really
nice passes there. There are players to like on this roster, and I
think they're gonna be a fun team to watch. You don't have your best
their second best player, and definitely your best defender Jonathan Isaac When is he
coming back from a torn left acel? I think Mark L. Folts is
important to your defensive setup. He hasn't come back from a tourn left acel.
Your just rotation is all over the place. It's just you have these
guards and R. J. Hampton and colanthe plush Jalon Suggs. How much
license over the offense or responsibility does Jal and Suggs have? Is he gonna
lead your team and assist by necessity? Because that's not really Colanthies are RJ.
Hampton's game and you don't have Folts to start the season. Are you
playing the veterans or are you trading the Veterans and Gary Harris and Terrence Ross?
Does Gary Harris even help your team at this point? Conceptually? Sure?
But the Gary Harris in the past two years has not been a particularly
helpful player. What is happening with the center rotation? They've tried to play
Mobama on Wendel Carter Junior together. I applaud Jamal Jamal Mosley, head coach,
for getting weird. I don't know if that works, but it seems
like they really want Robin Loper's to play which is fine. I guess he
helps you a little bit. What does Chimo Keke look like? And just
the secondary wing rotation, Like you have to pencil in when you look at
this team and how guard heavy it is, you have to basically say that
one, if not both, of Gary Harrison Terrace Ross are wings and that's
just not sustainable here. I don't know what friends Wagner is. You probably
need to find minutes for him at the four, which becomes a lot harder
if Chimokeke and Jonathan Isaac are both healthy, which you hope they are at
some point. I don't think Wagner can be a three in the I just
don't offense sure defense, I don't see it. So this team, I'm
excited about their future. I want to make that clear. I think if
I was Orlando, as soon as they get healthy, if they look good,
I'm absolutely taking calls UNFOLTONII. That might be my spiciest take here.
That being said, they are so far off and it feels like they are
leaning into a more gradual rebuild, which is why I'm exciting about their future
given what they did at the trade deadline. So I think if you're asking
me which team is more likely to hit their over. Between Oklahoma City and
Orlando at twenty two point five, I might take Oklahoma City because they have
that all NBA guy in Shay and also you know, Jonathan Isaac isn't healthy.
And Orlando it just feels like Orlando wants to be or doesn't want to
be, but it's built. Okay, See, Orlando are built to be
the two worst teams in the NBA. That's just how I look at it.
They and maybe Detroit and Houston, Like those teams are right at the
bottom of the barrel for me, and I just think Orlando is so inexperienced
in a good way. They just have so many flyers to try out.
Plus you're gonna have to work in Folts and Isaac as they come back.
I would expect them to win twenty games at most this year. Honestly,
The only thing I really have to add is just the way I looked at
this, because I did have them as a hesitant over at twenty four wins,
but it was my lowest win total of any be A team this season.
So this to me was just less about being optimistic about the roster and
more being pessimistic about a lot of the top teams in the NBA's motivations or
ratedness, So I just I think that this year has a lot more potential
than most for those true top teams to sacrifice wins to the bottom ones,
where they're not just cannibalizing each other for wins so much as getting a win
against the Lakers because Lebron and Anthony Davis are both out on the same night,
or getting a win against the Hawks because Trey is sitting. I think
there's a lot more potential for that this season, which is why I kind
of flattened my entire projections out and it created weirder situations like this where I
don't think Orlando is ready to be competitive at all yet despite liking a lot
of the individual pieces, and yet I still have them as as an over
that makes sense to me. I totally get that Philadelphia seventy six ers set
at fifty point five, and they were a comfortable under for me at forty
five wins, because there's no good resolution to this Ben Simmons thing. Now
if he doesn't play at all and you can't find a trade for him because
you can't agree on the value, that's obviously not a good thing. If
he does play, what are you getting from him? Are you getting the
hyper motivated I need to increase my trade value? Are you getting the malcontent
I don't really want to be here, so I'm not going to try as
hard on defense. I just I worry a lot about this situation regardless,
and even if you make a trade, you're trading it likely for a talent
downgrade, and then you have to incorporate them into the system beyond that.
Even if I really like Seth Curry as a guy who deserves an expanded offensive
role. Even if I think Tobias Harris has moved back into the underrated camp.
Even if I think Joel Embiid is an MVP frontrunner, do I trust
him to play an entire season? What does this team look like if he's
not playing more than sixty sixty five games? What about the depth on this
team? Are you trusting Tyrese Maxe? Are you trusting Shake Milton? Are
you trusting Matisse Table in a scalable role? Andre Drummond is the backup center?
Is that going to be a positive or a negative? At this point
in Drummond's career. There's just there're way too many question marks for me with
this team. I said, it might be a very dangerous playoff team because
a healthy EMBIID can single handedly win a series. I don't even have anything
to add really there. If you told me that Ben Simmons was gonna be
there all season and play I might consider taking me over. But it's just
the uncertainty of will he miss time, will he be bad? If you
move him? What are you getting for him? And then the other thing
is what if they even let's say they just wait at let's say Bradley Beal
asked out of Washington, which I think they're waiting on Damon Bradley Beal.
I would think Beale is more likely to get traded than Dame. I don't
particularly expect either get traded at this point. That all being said, whoever
you yet, you still have to work into the roster, and I would
argue that's harder to do with stars than it is with guys who are used
to playing accessory roles. I'm you nailed it when you said there's too much
uncertainty. There are scenarios in which they clear it, but you need him
being to set a career high in minutes played slash appearances. I don't think
you can just assume that, especially when they invested the contention in him,
you have every reason to just wait the long term over the shorter term.
There's I don't feel great about this because if Ben Simmons is still good and
they destroyed opponents during the regular season with him and being on the court,
it's just it's all the stuff surrounding his future. And then also just the
possibility that what if he actually does this doesn't seem like his personality. What
if he pulls the James Harden where he just plays so badly, did they
send him away from the team, and that's not going to help his trade
value? So what if you either then settle on. Like I think the
most likely scenarios, they lose the Ben Simmons trade on paper because they're not
going to acquire a star you stay. I had to lose it by an
even larger margin. If something goes wrong to start the season with Ben Simmons,
if he plays and boycotts it, you have to send him home or
he's just bad. So I hope that's not the case. I like Ben
Simmons, like the player, and would love to see him you know,
it would be funny if he just came out shooting threes like he does in
those workout videos. I just I don't know how you invest in the over
for this team. I just don't know how you do it. Well.
If Grant Ruler gets twenty five minutes a game, then you do. And
also how you say a Joe as well fair. That brings us to the
Phoenix Suns, who were set at fifty one and a half. And this
is you. This is one of my best bets on the list. I
am smashing the ever living shit out of the over on this and this over
I checked has actually risen by a win since I recorded the Phoenix Suns preview
and I still just have no qualms about it. They are. They're so
good that my biggest qualm with their roster is their backup center rotation just doesn't
seem like it can be as inventive without Nario Sarich. And look, Dario
sars that he's becoming from from a torn acl For anyone who doesn't know that
or forgot those minutes with him at the five. They weren't great to close
the year last season. Now what excites me about this roster though, is
that Yes, I will be urging Monty Williams to try playing Cam Johnson and
Jay Crowder as his primary front court. Rayton's on the bench, but also
the internal improvement candidates, and the Timeline podcast did a series called Internal Development
that was fantastic. They went deep on five of Phoenix's most important youngsters.
There's a chance that Devin Booker, Kale Bridges, DeAndre Ayton, Cam Johnson,
and Cameron Payne all get better because they're still young enough. Now,
if you want to take the very conservative route, the expectation should be that
three of those guys get better, Eton and Bridges specifically, and then I
would probably just pay either Cam Johnson or Devin Booker because Devin Booker is Devin
Booker. I think he would get a lot better if they actually ran some
Devin Booker at the one units. This is failing. Even if you want
to bake in some rest nights for Chris Paul, maybe a little bit of
a drop off, which we've learned by now. Ever since he's gone vegan,
maybe you really just shouldn't do that. He's missed four games combined the
past two regular seasons. I don't see a scenario, barring catastrophe, that
they don't win like fifty five. So if you want to hear my thoughts
on this one, then just rewind like two minutes and you're good. So
let's move to the Portland Trailblazers because I literally cannot add anything to that,
and it is exactly what I'm thinking for that Phoenix Suns team. So seriously,
Portland Trailblazers forty four and a half, This is a really tricky one
because I just don't know what to expect out of a Chauncey Billups lead lineup.
Is this suddenly going to have more of a defensive focus. They're already
changing how they're running pick and roll coverage. I think that we'll see use
of nurkics a little bit more involved. But is it going to come at
the expense of that Damian Lillard CJ McCollum backcourt, which seems unlikely because Phillips
was also a point guard who controlled the ball, and I think is going
to want to feature a lot of Damian Lillard. So I just I don't
know what to expect there yet. I'm not sure we really have a true
sense for it, even coming out of the preseason. But I still just
think the talent one on this lineup is significant enough that I still ended up
at forty five wins because Damian Lillard is still good for a handful of wins
just by himself. McCollum is in the same boat sometimes when he really gets
on a heater. I believe in Norman Powell. Robert Covington is still a
tremendously useful piece, specifically as an off ball defender. The Larry Nance Junior
addition so gives them a lot more reliability when you're playing second units, whether
he's spending time at the four, at the five, maybe even sometimes at
the three. Use of Nurka should be more engaged this year, which probably
means good things for so I. I don't think this is going to be
the greatest defensive team, but they just have a lot of ways to obliterate
you on offense this year. I'm just so the pathway of them being worse
would be dame and the preseason might have been a red flag. The thing
I'll pushed back on with use of nurk Hitch is he did mention he wanted
a bigger role at the end of last season. I don't know what that
looks like aside from hey, maybe just stay healthy. And I'm not saying
that's his fault, but let's say get a bigger role. A friend of
the podcast host that we have a take podcast, Tyre Bone Biggs, point
out to me to watch use of Nurkisch because I don't watch a ton of
preseason basketball. I watch player possessions and things like that. I hate preseason.
I just want to get that out of the way. As someone who
covers the league at large, I get if you're a fan or following or
covering one specific team wide. It's so useful. I went back and watch
some use of Nerkich. That dude thinks that he needs to be featured on
offense. I'm hoping that doesn't carry into the regular season because that would be
a problem. I'm going to assume it doesn't. Their pathway they wont at
a about a forty eight win pace last year with Nurkis missing some time.
They didn't have Norman Powell the entire season. What is the pathway to them
being worse? And it's Damian Lillar request a trade. I don't think that
happens in the middle of the season, I would be shocked. So even
if the def bad, which by the way, the defense was actually good
when used off Nurks played, and now you have another backup big who he's
not the same type of backline protector. So if you want to run him
at center, Larry As Junior might actually hurt your defense there. But if
you play him with Covington like, there are workable things around that. Anfony
Simons looked a lot. He looks like he's ready to make not a leap
in general. I don't know how many minutes he gets when you're starting three
guards and Powell, Dame and CJ. He looks like this is the year
that he's going to be a better passer. So they're top seven guys to
me, they feel like Givens and Dame, Simons, McCallum, Powell,
Covington, Nance and Nurkics Cody Zeller. If he's health he's a fine backup
center. Tony Snell hits three's when he's healthy, defends his butt off.
Yeah, it doesn't miss a free throw, don't ask him put the ball
on the floor. That's fine, you don't need them too. I'm very
interested to see if we see your little can stay healthy. I feel like
he would give like a lot of zip to this team, like just a
lot of those hustle play maybe help you on the glass. Some give you
if you want to downsize a little bit can help you on defense. There.
I don't think he should be like defending true wings, but if you
want, like you know, I would say, if you want to run
Larry Nance Junior at the at the five, maybe you should look at playing
Roco and this year a little to get or to see what that does through
your defense or Roco and Tony Snell of course, So why is this just
feels like incredibly low? Is it the unknownness of the Chauncy billips Hire,
which I guess, fine, why would he make a roster that I would
just argue the top seven this season is better than their top seven last season
by virtue of Simon's just probably isn't gonna be worse. I don't was he
even in their top seven last year? And now you have Larry Nance Junior,
who just makes all the sense in the world for this team. Why
are they getting like four or five wins worse? Yeah, I think the
only reasonable answer is just too much of an adjustment period under a new head
coach after a lot of continuity under Terry Stotts. But I would be shocked
if this wasn't playing like a fifty win team in the second half of the
season. I was down at forty five because I think there's a little bit
more of that adjustment period where they could sacrifice some games they should have won,
just trying to make sure they're all on the same page throughout the rest
of the season. But this team, in terms of talent, in terms
of ability, all that should clearly be at a higher line, and it's
you know, maybe they're just there. They always have these like unnecessarily stressful
fourth quarters. Maybe more of those don't tilt in their favor. I won't
even predict that because Damian Lillard exists. And the final thing before we move
on, Seezy McCollum, before he got injured last year, was going to
make the All Star team, but was averaging like twenty seven five, shooting
fifty plus percent on two's, hitting off the dribble, threes left and right.
I don't know if I fancy this team a contender. I don't think
they've done enough for Damian Lillard to stay there long term if he really wants
to be on a championship or a bust roster. But I view them as
a rock solid playoff team. I might have had them only at forty five
wins, which is granted, is still and over, but they are my
number four in the West. Wow, you really did disperse those wins,
yep. Which brings us to the Sacramento Kings, who were set at thirty
six and a half, and you are up first on this one. I
went under. I just I love a lot of their individual players there.
I think they eventually trade Buddy Healed, though, I also and I spoke
with this when I talked with Greg Whistling, You're from the King's Herald about
Sacramento, he disagreed he doesn't think that the Kings will become sellers, that
they're more built for a consolidation trade. I agree, and if they're the
team that trades for Ben Simmons, I would want to revise this pick.
I still think that they're I don't want to say the rudderless, but they're
still sort of just wandering somewhere in that like sub middle of the Western Conference.
And if that consolidation. Trade isn't out there because maybe there was a
star. Market just doesn't develop. If Biel doesn't request out, if Dame
doesn't request out, if no one's willing to pony up or even come close
to meeting the asking price of Philly for Ben Simmons, maybe this is the
year that we don't get like that huge name being moved, and one are
the odds if that big name gets moved, that they are being moved to
Sacramento. So I could see that moving Harrison Barnes and getting worse. I
could see them moving Buddy Healed and getting worse. I could see Marvin Bagley
being additioned by subtraction if they move him. I could also see him being
a helpful player this year. I don't like their wing rotation. Harrison Barnes
is not a wing to me. He had like one of the best seasons
of his career last year, playing a lot of four. I view Mohrkless
is a four. How many minutes and Lewis came going to give you?
You still believe in Robert Woodard. I'm not out, but and it's not
someone I'm gonna harp on either. I'm not as optimistic as you was.
I guess the best way to put it, I hope they play three guard
lineups with Davy On, Mitchell, Terrys, Howibert, darn Fox. Fox
is a legitimate star. I think Haliburton has a path to start him.
I don't know that he gets there this season, but he has a path.
People who are just pendeling him as like this glue guy. No,
he was a top three rookie last year. He does a little bit of
everything, and he's more. Yeah, he packs more on offense, and
I think people give him credit for so I'll leave that there. It's just
ever. Shawn Holmes is good, Tristan Thompson's a fine backup center, Alex
lenn is big. That's fun. I just you're in a tough questern conference,
and I think there's the potential for you to move as a seller two
players who are important to you winning games right now in Buddy Heald and Harrison
Barnes. I'm not guestimating that's what happens. My official prediction would be at
least one of them is moved as part of a package. Again, where
the Kings aren't getting this hugely helpful immediately return thirty seven is just they're not
built. They're not built to end their playoff droute this year in my homeble
opinion, and I think maybe this is the year at the front office says
okay, like we need to stop trying to straddle this weird sub middle ground
and we'll lean a little bit further into the longer haul. I had them
at thirty nine wins, still outside the playoff picture, so I was over
and I think the only real discrepancy and how we're thinking and this is a
little bit predicated on them actually playing those Fox Mitchell Haliburton lineups, which isn't
a sure thing, but it makes sense and it would add so much opportunity
on offense. Will getting Mitchell who looks ready to make an immediate impact as
a defender as a rookie, which is a rare thing to do. All
that needs to happen, But I just I think Fox takes the leap this
year. It has felt like the game is slowing down for him pretty significantly,
which is quite useful for a player who operates at warp speed. I
just I think he's seeing enough to start making life a lot easier for developing
players around him. Healed. We know that he's an elite shooter, elite
floor spacer. Rashaun Holmes is going to make a huge impact, and I
think he's the primary beneficiary of the game slowing down for Fox. It's purely
belief in his development because the flaws that you mentioned definitely exists, and that's
why the leap isn't even more substantial. There are depth concerns, for sure.
There are potential concerns about trades, whether they are consolidation trades or just
moving off those better and pieces, But I just I think Fox is that
guy this year. My highest phrase would be this might have been my least
comfortable under. You know won that the sub twenty five win teams. I
think when you take the under, there there's always that inherent risk. But
this was one of the toughest unders and the I want to echo and I've
I've said this about Fox over the past few years. I feel like he's
both now the calm and the storm for their offense, where you mentioned like
the frenetic pace that yet, but things have slowed down for him to the
point where he can really manipulate and control the defense. I really liked my
warp speed line, but I thought yours was better, so kudos to you.
Warp speed is always a fantastic line, but that's just a compar that's
Fox is just like, I don't know that we know someone who can like
changes the pace that starkly, like even you know, like who who else
can do that? I don't know. I'm sure there's someone, I'm just
not thinking of them right now, but like Russ has never been like that
calm yannest, isn't it like that, that element of calm? And I
think Darren Fox has it. I agree with you, san Antonio Spurs nine
and a half. I did also go over here. I had them at
thirty two wins, largely because I am that high on Derek White. I
think the shooting is for real, that he is the closest thing that this
team has to a star. But then there are just a ton of good,
not great pieces who are coached by Greg Popovitch, who I just I
never want to completely count him out, but Jako Purtle, super impactful defender,
Doug McDermott, impactful offensive player, Thaddeus Young, great veteran presence,
Devin Vassell. I think we see a significant lead from him, Kelton Johnson
can create offense from the wing, fill a lot of different roles. The
Jante Murray continues to grow each season. If we get anything out of Josh
Primo, then this rotation is that much deeper during his rookie season. I
just I like a lot of the pieces here, and I think cohesively they
make sense even if they don't have that true star that pushes them over the
top against a lot of the teams that are going to out talent them on
a nightly basis. Yeah, they certainly offensive creation after losing the Rosa to
the Patty Mills could be an issue for them. That's why I'm really hoping
they give Josh Primo a chance as a rookie, which would be against their
MO. I also probably wouldn't once again, so it's rebuilding against their m
Gotta add that, right, I mean, are they rebuilding or are they
trying to straddle the middle ground until pav Fitsch leaves And also, once straight
Jones is health, they want to see him get minutes. But I'm with
everything you said essentially. I also think what does concern me is that they
got destroyed in the possessions They played without Patty Mills lame demartar Rosa last year.
The thing is is that was sub one, seven hundred fifty possessions.
And because you had Derek White dealing with injuries, he wasn't a part of
a lot of those lineups. Maybe you have to imagine that either he or
Dejeante Murray, one of them as sort of more of a vocal point,
gets even better. I am curious see how the fit goes with them.
That could be iffy. They're still going to stagger those minutes because they need
those two to handle the ball. You have a figure on one of Kelvin
Johnson or Lonnie Walker getting better, Devin of the Seals rock solid. You
mentioned Jake Puddle already. Faddy is Young is gonna help this team while he's
there. But that and this is where this is why the over. I
don't know if I said I was picking over. This is why the over
makes so much sense to me. What does selling look like for the Spurs.
It's trading Thaddeus Young And that is literally yeah, well, I mean
that's not selling. That would someone be doing them a favorite? What if
I mean it is healthy? Like that's just someone who could defend across wingspots
and you could play smaller with And what if you decide to keep Thaddy is
Young because no one's meeting your asking price and you're a little bit better than
expe like if you're on the fringes of the play in race. This is
a team that's gonna go for it because of Greg Popovitch. So I'm actually
a little bit uneasy about how how I don't know how good I feel about
going with the over here sub thirty winchs just feels like a lot for as
I think you phrased it perfectly, a roster that is chock full of good,
not great pieces, but still good pieces. Also, what if Zach
Collins is healthy and even a shadow of what we thought he could be during
his Portland Trailblazers days. This team has the chance to be really good defensively,
like between with Daddy is Young, There Yaka Pearle one of the best
rim protectors you have, Derek White, Jante Murray's and all defense got waing
to happen. Devin Vassell was already on that level. You need Kelvin Johnson
to get better there if you need Lonnie Walker to get better than you need
Lonnie Walker just get better everywhere, probably, But like this could be an
above. If their offense is bad, their defense could be probably comparably as
good, at least speaking of teams that should be very good on defense.
Toronto Raptors set at thirty six and a half. All you, I have
a question before I give you my over under. Well, this team spend
a single possession this season operating in the half court? Yeah? Sure,
I think there will be one? Just one. How is this line so
low? I could not figure that out. This is my This is my
order of magnitude, biggest overlock. I think what you've a few things are
happening here, Kyle Lowry left. People are reading too much into that in
the sense that Drags cannot replace his defense. He does give you a viable
replacement on offense, even though he's not doing all of the same things.
Maybe you're assuming they trade Siakam or Van Fleet. It doesn't sound like Sam
is gonna miss too much time to start the season with his injury, So
if you're assuming he's gonna be healthy, like Chris Bouche is gonna be healthy,
I understand they have Scottie Barnes and it looks like they're gonna play him.
I think he ultimately hurt you on offense as a score, I think
he might be like as close to a net positive defender as you can be
as a rookie. And also he's making really good decisions as a playmaker.
If they're gonna play this fast and furious like, I think that could help
him get to a lee average offense. There's Fred van Fleet, Ogi Andaobi
looks just don't even forget just the aesthetics of his game on offense looks so
good. So unless you tell me or that you're banking on them trading one
of their top three players or more obviously in siakam Og or Van Fleet,
I'm smashing me over here. And yeah, injuries could throw that off.
I'm just not gonna cake those in by default. I will say I did
go on this similar rant last year and they ended up just getting They were
by the under by like a mile, but they tanked last year. I
think that might be the risk here with our over is that this is a
team with Massa hu Jerry at the helm. They're not going to aim to
finish eighth, ninth, seventh, tenth, so they're not very clearly in
the top six. I could see them no, not selling. I mean,
could I see them trading Gary Trent Junior around the trade adventure. But
I'm not selling but shutting guys down again. And that's where this could go
sideways. And you still haven't even mentioned precious a chiwa Uta Watanabe. You
just mentioned Trent Junior as a potential trade canidate. Malachi Flynn could break out
in a big way as a sophomore. People there's people have said, and
I've listened sorry that their youth because you mentioned mal Kai Flynn and we talked
about Scottie Barnes, that their youth hurts them on defense. It's like so
many of the kids, Yeah that I'm not sure about that. So you
know how when you build win projections, you kind of just go through them
and then see what they add up to, and then inevitably you're way too
high on way too many teams because you have to get down to twelve thirty
for the number of wins you're dolling out. So I originally had Toronto winning
forty five games and they were one of the ones that I had to cut
back on because I was way over the designated number. So I ended up
with forty three, which is still just shattering the over under. There's there's
just so much to like about this team if even a sliver of what we're
seeing from O, G N and OBI actually translate to the regular season.
I am unbelievably high on what Fred van Vleet can do without Kyle Lowry next
to him, just because he has the kind of game that is built to
thrive both as an on ball scoring presence and also as an off ball weapon,
which we're going to see more and more of this year with Ananobe taking
over possessions, with Siakam operating when he's healthy, he's shown a good Yeah,
I met talked about that. What if he's good. Yeah, he's
shown a lot of Van Valet still has shown a lot of chemistry with Bouchet
in the pick and roll game, the pick and pop game, and they're
going to be operating more alongside each other this year. And then there's Dragics,
who is still a useful offensive piece even at their minimum. So I
just I have no idea why this line is what it is. I am
more concerned about their offense than their defense, just because Drags probably is knowing
that Toronto is going to take the long view unless they're like third in the
East or something. I could see that moving him if a team wants help,
I'd be shocked if they bought him out. And then you get into
a point where it's like, okay, you have Fred van Fleet and Siakam,
night needo O Giannaobe to be that guy, and he might be.
I'm just a little big he is. Yeah, I think he is too,
But I'm just saying, if you're everyone seems certned at both ends.
For them, I'm probably more worried about the offense because of what it looks
like, like like even Siakam, the best version of him is like not
this half court savant, Like let me break down the defense. Fred van
Fleet can be that guy. Maybe Draga is that guy a little bit is
ogn and Obi that guy he might be. It's just I'm surprised that people
I guess are as low on their defense as they are. As my point,
I'm more concerned about how they fare on offense than their defense, and
they should be one of like the low key best league pass watches to me
when we did our lead past rankings, I think I have them at two
because they're gonna play it like this frantic. I think you have them at
one? Did I think it sounds like me? Yeah? It does.
Next up are the Utah Jazz. They're over. Under was set at fifty
three and a half. I was right there having them at fifty three,
So I guess I'm on team under for them, even though I think this
team continues to be one that could easily finish with the most wins during the
regular season and hopefully not have the same kind of playoff collab this year,
because I keep picking them to win titles and they keep letting me down and
I can't quit it. Because Rudy Gobert is just so incredible as just a
generational talent on defense in their system is just built perfectly around him. Donovan
Mitchell one of the most fun takeover guys out there. Mike Conley is doing
yoga now, so he's going to stay healthy and be even more impactful.
But I still just I think the under because they have to leave more in
the tank for the playoffs. The depth is a little questionable this year because
even if you've added Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside, I don't know how much
you want to rely on them this year. But they do have more pieces
they could use with Eric Pascal and Joe Ingalls and Jared Butler could make an
impact as a rookie. But do you want to be trusting Jordan Clarkson with
the same offensive responsibilities in the second unit. There are just a couple questions
I have where I just can't have them running away towards sixty wins this year.
My official prediction is that Jordan clarks he gets traded this season because Jared
Butler is so good, which applies to Jared Butlers for the play. I
try to talk myself into the under here. Joe Ingles, Mike Conley age
thirty four, Bayard Mdonovitch at age thirty two. Could there be some drop
off there? Donna Mitchell is gonna get better. Rudy Gobert does not get
played off the floor. The Jazz just do not have enough smaller good defenders
in front of him to let him operate on the floor. When a select
few teams downsize, it's not even a bunch of teams, it's a select
few. If you told me that they're going to look to post up Rudy
Gobert like they you know, France did in the Olympics to punish mismatches.
I'd probably be a little bit uneasy. They're returning their top seven guys from
last year. They have that flyer on Jared Butler Rudy Gobert, I think
allows them to play smaller in the non Gobert Rudy Gay excuse me, allows
them to play smaller in the non Gobert minutes if they want where you can
use him at the five, Him and Eric Paschkell and Joe Ingles and Boyemodonald's
can all be on the court at the same time with Donovan Mitchell or something
like just run run that and just see what that look is. If you
don't, I think you have what's a better backup center for you and us
on Whiteside than Derek Fabers at this point. He did not look right last
season. But also just the type of offense he plays is similar similar to
how Gobert plays, so like you're just not missing a beat stylistically, you
have someone who can still catch lobs lobs set screens. Isn't gonna be a
smart roll into the basket, not as good as a passer obviously on those
roles, but still you get you get the gist of what I'm saying there,
unless you're gonna tell me that Gobert Donovan Mitchell missed a substantial time.
I think they're built to sort of traverse any one absence, even if it's
an extended one from Conley, from Clarkson, from Boyan Madonovitch, from Joe
Ingles. I'm gonna I think this team wins fifty four, fifty five games.
It's I think we should at this point save our standings from when we
do that awards pod when, whether it's before the season or at the start
of it. But I would I think Phoenix and Utah are gonna be like
the teams that are jockeying for one and two in the West. Yeah.
I don't disagree with any of that. I mean, I'll spoil that there.
Utah is still my number one team in the West in terms of record
because I haven't flattened and I haven't flattened out that much, which maybe here
here's my thing is they won fifty two in a seventy two game season where
they weren't I guess they had like good health, but like you still had
Donovan Mitchell banged up at one point, though that was in the playoffs Soto
seventy two games. It's one of those where I feel like it's just it's
misleading and frustrating that I have to label this as an under because I only
had them at fifty three. But like, I'm clearly high on them.
Yeah, so Adam thinks that the Wizards are going to be better than the
Jazz Apparently that's what I took away from that absolutely, because they're over under
as at thirty four and a half, and I thought it would have been
in the fifties. Like when I put down sixty two wins for the Wizards,
Like, I just I couldn't believe that I almost doubled the Vegas over
under, Like what in the world is going on here? There's oh the
Wizards are me Yeah, but I mean, can you now wax poetic about
Daniel Gafford and how he's going to be alone? Yeah? I could,
I won't because I'm just curious to see if he helps them a lot defensively.
That's still my big question with this team breaking up Russell Westbrook in the
multiple players, I think does a world of help for their rotation. Kuzmin
and KCP are both going to be I think important defenders for them. I
like Denny Avia, I love his game. I think there's like a lack
of secondary shock creation here when you move on from Dinwoody and Bill can Alvia
run some of those ben shootits. Maybe Kyle Kuzman gets to turn back the
clock to his rookie season work on the ball a little bit. I went
with a reluctant over here, just because I don't know what Thomas Bryant looks
like once he returns. They don't have a good defensive center on this roster.
When you look at Tres Gafford and Briant, I guess Gafford probably the
best at trio and maybe, yeah, maybe he's He probably is the highest
potential for sure. Like if you told me he ended up being like this
hugely net positive guy around the basket for them defensively, that wouldn't shock me.
It's still just the uncertainty of Bradley Beale's future, because I do believe
it's fluid despite what a lot of Wizards fans like to think. That does
give me pause. They do have a new head coach in West until junior,
but he was revered for a lot of just the stuff he did it
as an assistant, especially in Denver, working with guys on defense and other
things as well, that should help him. I'm just gonna assume that Bill
finishes the season there, that Spencer Genuti remains relatively healthy. And I think
when you make those assumptions, even when you get into just a tough front
court rotation where it's like, okay, well, if you want Kuzman to
play some four hotchimurrors a four, Burton's is a four. Someone is getting
squeezed. Is it gonna be Burton's when his three point shooting is so important?
And then again, what happens your second string point guard is Aaron Holiday?
Howell Netto, Holiday gives you the North South jet fuel. I don't
know that he's like I just haven't seen enough of him from him to think
that he's going to be a viable, you know, bench creator behind Dinwoody
Netto. That's just not his game. He's really feisty on defense, So
Denny Avia needs to step up there. You probably need Ruy Hotch want to
be a smarter offensive player. I still think he could be fine, it's
a reluctant over. But if din what he is healthy enough and Bill doesn't
go anywhere, I would be more than sixty five percent confident in this pick.
How's that for an endorsement of Washington's own? Not at all. Now,
it's there's another team where I like so many of the pieces. I
think the Spencer, Dinuity, Bradley Bill fit makes a lot of sense.
Advia has upside and just about every area. Corey Kissberg, who I don't
think you mentioned, is immediately going to be one of the better shooters in
the NBA, and you're pairing him with Davis Burton's who can hit from all
over the floor. I will better not be actually pairing him with Davis Burton.
You're not making anything more on the roster than less. You know my
affinity for Daniel Gafford. I think there's a somewhat realistic possibility that it all
clicks for Kyle Kuzma, where he's learned to fill a defensive role in a
largely positive way, but also proved is a rookie that he has scoring ability
and he just wasn't able to put it on display in LA. What if
he pairs those two elements of his game together, but I landed at thirty
two wins, so I was under because I don't think Bradley Beale finishes the
season here. And if that's what happens, what is this team? Because
I have no idea, but I just I think that there's been those those
long running undercurrents of discontent there. Even if he's always publicly maintained that he's
committed to the franchise that he's not really going to ask for a trade,
I can also see that changing now because public perception about him is changing,
where he's been viewed as this loyal, fringe superstar who is trying to carry
the franchise out of the dumps. He's never really done anything unlikable. He's
easy to root for, and I say that despite his status as a Florida
alumnus. But the anti vax thing changes a lot of that because he,
for the first time in his career, has been subject to a lot of
public outcry and backlash, and I think that changes how you operate and probably
makes you a little bit more bold about doing what you feel is best for
you, which coincidentally is what he's doing with the vaccine. Stance. But
that's neither here nor there. So I just I don't think he finishes the
season in Washington, and I can't pick the over because of it. That's
all fair. This was It was like I said, sixty five percent confidence.
While I stay fairly confident, it's not a high amount of confidence.
And then look, there's this scenario in which he stays and they still don't
make that just there are a lot of questions, probably after their top five
guys. But you could all if he stays there the whole season, you
could sell me on this sneaking into the play in conversation. Yeah, that's
gonna be interesting when we get to our standards. Thank you to anyone who's
stuck with that this long, stuck with us this long. I did not
break this up into two podcasts because we're putting this out on a Monday.
The season starts on a Tuesday. Yes, there are only two games on
the Tuesday, but let's just get this out. I will time stamp it
at some point, hopefully once the ads figure out how to get baked in
there. As I'm recording this outro, I have no idea how long this
podcast is. It's pushing three hours. It's at least two and a half,
is my guests or around there, So thank you anyone. Yeah,
I'm trying to figure that out too, because we talked for a while before
we started recording. I'm gonna say two how long, I would guess just
I'll take the under. Oh yeah, on under two and a half.
I'm gonna keep talking to make sure that on that. But please, please,
if you made it this far and you have not already subscribed to us,
consider doing so. We cover the NBA at large. We are pleasantly
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This is the first time I've been able to say it in so long because
I've not been ending the team look aheads with it, but shout out too,
the one, the only, the dude whose name Adam will not get
tattooed on him because he is a coward and a hater. Shout out Frankni
Aquita M.