What is krack Alack in Hardwood Knocks listeners, I am Damp Valley coming at
you with another mailbag. We had a bunch of questions left over from the
last mailbag and I like to get to all of them, so I figured
I would do another one. We have some other stuff in the pipeline,
but it just felt like a good time. Let me please remind anyone if
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you who pitches in and does that, so please continue to do so.
But also before we can involve into the mailbag, we do have some not
breaking news, but some interesting news to get to as everything happens in Summer
League, and I expect a lot more rumors to come out of that soon,
if not actual transactions. But Winhorse did say well he was making an
appearance on Get Up ESPN show. We believe that the Indiana Pacers are very
close to giving DeAndre an offer sheet or executing a sign and trade. We
could see something with the Pacers and Eighten happened as early as today. I'm
chancing recording this the night before because I don't need to cover the Palo pan
Caro games since he will not be playing when he goes up against Cheth Holgren's
Oklahoma City Thunder was looking forward to. That kind of sucks we won't see
him play, But Pancaro was absolutely fantastic and killed it during the games that
he did appear in. So the Eighten to Indiana stuff isn't new. I
think the fact that it's progressing this quickly might mean that it's no longer going
to wait, at least conceptually on what's going to happen with Kevin Durant,
where a lot of the league still feels in limbo. If it's a sign
and trade, that transaction can still be folded into the Kevin Durant framework is
part of this larger deal. But at the same time, I don't think
the Nets actually want Eighton and his base here. Compensation always made the deal
a little bit more difficult. Not a ton unless you were involving other teams.
They just resigned Nick Claxton. That organization really really really likes Dayron Sharp
as well, so they might not see investing in a big man as the
smartest course of action. You're also going to run into this issue with other
big men like Claxton, like Dayron Sharp. But if you're keeping Ben Simmons,
it doesn't make sense to have like an eighton there who there's some touch
away from the basket, but it's more so on like hook shots fadeaways,
not really like a push shot. Like could have a little bit of a
mid range game though, and that's just not enough range to justify investing what
will be in nearbax money in eighten. So that is the issue there that
I don't think in eighton transaction with Indiana one way or the other, I
don't think it portends anything about the the Kevin Durant sweepstakes necessarily. And if
you're Brooklyn, it just makes more sense. I know people are like,
whoa Aton hasn't even turned twenty four, hilters a later this month. If
you're Brooklyn and you want to compete now, but also kind of keep your
flexibility, remain young and have room for growth. Eton makes sense, just
not alongside Simmons, not at that price point. Anyway, you can approximate
a lot of what he's going to give you on defense and offense in a
much cheaper fashion, which is clearly how the Suns feel, hence why they
haven't signed him. The Pacers. The Pacers Soun's issue, though, so
we're expecting something to happen, whether it's a sign and trade or an outright
offer sheet, because the Pacers officially have the cap space to do so.
If it does happen, I think it'll probably be the as sign and trade
for a couple of reasons. Herb Simon has really always liked to operate this
way with his colleagues. We saw it with I think most recently was the
Malcolm Brogden thing with Milwaukee, where they turned that into a sign and trade
where they didn't even necessarily need to. I think that's fine in this case
as well, and including Brogden, you're hedging your bets against Okay, well,
what couldn't we We don't want to give this offer sheet to Eton,
a player we really like, and then just have the Suns match it.
If you want to ensure that you're gonna get that player, then yes,
involving the other teams makes sense to me. Though, if there's like a
significant opportunity that the Suns would let Eton walk, and I don't think that
they would. However, I do think there's more variability caked in here than
we would expect, just based off everything that's happened since essentially last summer when
the extension negotiations began. I just wouldn't like take that to the bank,
is my point. So if you think there's like a better than fifty percent
chance the Suns won't match, I don't care about doing right by your colleagues,
especially when you're in a market like Indiana, Like you don't need to
send anything back. If you don't think they're gonna match, just pay Eton
and then you could trade Miles Turner elsewhere. The structure that everyone thinks is
gonna work is Miles Turner for Eton. And because in yes, so much
cap space based your compensation doesn't even matter there, that could be the route
that this goes. If they end up giving more than that. Maybe it's
because they believe that Phoenix was a big a threat to match. I just
don't think, Yeah, I guess it's enbiable on the part of Herbsigmon to
operate in that fashion. But if you truly and that makes sense, I
want to make that clear. It's smart if you think Phoenix or another team
dealing with other free agents is going to match. If they're actually not going
to, you're under no obligation to help them out. They have the option
of paying their own players, so you don't need to help them out.
For the Sun's perspective of this, Indiana seems like the cleanest trade partner.
You get someone a Miles Turner. I'm assuming that's what the structure of the
deal is going to be. Who's going to help you space the floor.
Not as good of a rebounder as Deandret and you can't play him as high
on the defensive end either, but just having that offensive range. I think
DeAndre Eten is probably the more versatile offensive player at this point. When you
look at some of his spins, his fadeaways, his hook shots. We've
never really seen Miles Turner yet to do that in high volume. I don't
know if that's something that he could do well. We know he wants a
more expanded offensive role. I don't think he would get one in Phoenix.
I think he would be a nice fit. I also think he's I guess
he's not underrated as a defender. People understand how valuable or rim protectory is.
I don't think you're losing that much mobility on the perimeter though, going
from Eighten to Miles Turner if you're Phoenix, so I think that's a fine
replacement. There would still be a level of an uninspiring offseason if you don't
get Kevin Durant and this is your biggest move going from Eighten to Turner,
and then look, the question has to be, well, you don't want
to pay Eighten around thirty million dollars a year Milesters making eighteen that's fine for
you in the intern. He's going to be a free agent in twenty twenty
three. Where are you willing to pay him? Where is this going to
end up being another rental type situation because you can't, like, you have
to think of the long term value here too. DeAndre Ayton is a fringe
All Star at this point in a role that I guess he hasn't loved.
It doesn't seem like, but he's grown to excel at even if he doesn't
consistently play with that thrust is what I've been calling it. There are just
games where you don't feel his presence a lot, and those if you want
to be a more prominent part, especially if the offensive picture, you can't
have as many of those games that he tends to have. With all that
in mind, though, if you're a Phoenix like you need to acquire a
Turner with the intention of paying him, And I don't know why you'd want
to pay Miles Turner as opposed to Deandreton. Again, I don't think the
drop off, insofar as it exists, is even that massive. They're different
types of players. Where I do think that Turner is more of a like
a shot blocking floor space or and that's that's more of a specialist than what
Aton does. Is like, I think he's an understated defender like can actually
be sort of the backling anchor. But we've also, I'm sorry I'm tripping
with my words here, we've also never even seen Miles Turner in mass without
Demonta Sabonis. He covered up a lot I think for Sabonis during their time
and adying together. So I don't think the Pacers are giving away nothing.
Even if they didn't pan plan on paying Miles Turner, I don't know that
this is a no brainer decision for them. My point is with Phoenix is
you can't just a choir Miles Turner without the intention of have that be the
primary part of your return and then have that be like that's it, like
if you need to acquire him with the intention of paying him unless other stuff
is coming back. If I'm Indie, I'm fighting against that because we know
that Phoenix probably wants to not cut payroll because they're paying more to a center
now than they were paying eight And if they do get Turner, that being
said, if you have to include like that pick you got from Boston in
twenty twenty three, and then maybe if I was Phoenix, I would I
love o' shaber set, and I think Indie loves o shaber set. That
dude can defend all over the place, and if he hits his threes,
I'm continue to hit them at a high enough clip that's just super valuable.
And there's some on ball skills there too, but just the defense and then
like not compromising any of your offensive geometry. Your floor geometry is huge,
but why would you give up that much if you're indie knowing that you could
just sign him out right, you really have to believe then that Phoenix is
going to match. And I don't know that they've sent the message around the
league consistently enough or firmly enough that they'll do that. The fact that he
hasn't signed one or that another team aside from and he hasn't tried to give
him one, maybe that's part of it. I also have to acknowledge that
the big man market is always just sort of of one here, so and
I'd know for a fact that DeAndre Eton really wanted to get to the Spurs,
and then them pivoting away from Jeante Murray sort of made that just like
it was never gonna happen. So I get this from the Suns, and
I get it from the Pacers. DeAndre Ayton, you have all the cap
flexibility in the world. We can talk about should you be paying someone who's
even though he's only twenty four, he is a non All star at the
moment unless you project him to be the guy. Does it make sense to
do that so early into what feels like a rebuild like this is you're coming
off of half a season, like you're half a season into this rebuild where
you hit that reboot button. But cap space doesn't go as far in a
market like we romanticize it. They can take on bad contracts with all these
picks. We also like, that's fine, you could go that route,
but I don't think you're under any obligation. And DeAndre eton Is is young
enough to grow with you. He has not aged himself anywhere near out of
a full tilt rebuild. And the other thing to consider, it's just like
in these books are so flexible moving forward. There's not a bad contract on
their ledger right now. There's not I mean, there's not even a law
term contract on their their ledger. It's yeah, like right now, Daniel
Tye or t J McConnell, and those salaries aren't guaranteed. Those are the
only players who are under contract for more than two more seasons. Like,
there's no player let's freeze it this way. There's no player on in these
books right now who's under guaranteed, who has guaranteed money beyond twenty three,
twenty four. And so we know that Haliburton's going to be part of that
picture. He's a slave for a strict free agency, they'll probably extend him.
My point is you're not compromising anything by paying Ayden that if it doesn't
work out, or let's just say he doesn't provide the necessary bang for your
buck. That is your one overpaid player as of right now. So if
you're looking at it through that lens, it also doesn't matter. The question
really is do you believe that he makes sense as sort of an anchor for
the future, Because what I do think you give up here is yes,
you have your you have your high draft pick coming out of this year.
You also have Christy Wart, they already on the on the roster, you
have all shaper set I said, so you can view yourself as more in
the advanced stages. And I also don't know why I called Benedict just the
pick from this year. So you have him who just looks like he's going
to be infinitely scalable in the NBA. You can sort of make the move
to be like, right, well, we just need to advance this.
Haliburton's already really good. We have players who can make an impact, and
the Pacers have never operated on this, you know, full scale tear down
mode. This is really the closest that they've come in my memory what they
did this past season, making that sort of partial year tank. So I
get that, But do you think that DeAndre Ayton is the guy in the
situation that's gonna accelerate this process. I honestly don't know. I think this
is probably Caitlin Cooper phrase this, I believe on Twitter and hit on the
head. This feels like a vote of confidence and Tyrese Haliburton more than anyone
saying that he's just ready now can run the show now. You want a
superior, an elite pick and roll partner for him now, And I think
that's that's totally fine to agree with. You're not going to get that in
Miles. Turner has like one element to his pick and roll game, and
it's it's really picking and popping. DeAndre Ayton has like a little bit of
pop, but not so much. He's just a harder roller, has more
of a variable touch around the basket. I love what the pick and roll
duo between how Burton and Eton could do there. And then if you're surrounding
those two with enough shooting, that could be super super dangerous. And you're
also, again I don't think you drop off a ton defensively going from Eton
to Turner. I think if I had to push, I might call Eaton
the more versatile defender, and tur could textually be the more impactful one.
If that just makes any sense to anybody. But I'm still curious as to,
like, what else is there to explore with Deandret And we saw for
a stretch him going about his offensive business without Chris Paul. There are some
doubts to me in his I have some doubts, excuse me about his self
creation game. Again, I don't think we've seen it in a high enough
volume for me to render this verdict, But like, is there going to
be more aggression when we're talking about facing up and attacking guys? Can he
go up with more force when he is attacking at points? That consistency needs
to be put together, and it's it also just gets a little bit harder
when you're not playing with a Devin Booker and a Chris Paul at the same
time. Most of his court time well spent as almost the third option for
the Suns, and when you're also reliant on other people to set you up
a ton if you increase the self creation you're just going to become a more
prominent focal point of the defense by default. I don't think it's an un
I don't think it's an undefensable or an inexplicable gamble by the Pacers. I
do think it's a little bit of a gamble. You really have to believe
that there is a lot more to plumb from Eton on the offensive end.
At the same time, if you just believe, and I thought Haliburton really
shine when you're looking at his ISO game or his agency over Indy's offense.
When he came over there, I thought he showed even more than he did
in Sacramento, in large part because he was just given the freedom to do
so. So if you already view him as the guy, you don't need
Etan to ever be the guy. I think at this point you're looking at
him to it's either him or or Christa Warte. When you're looking at the
players in the ross right now, you'd like them to anchor the tyrese haliburtonless
units. I don't know. Christa Warte to me, would have a better
chance his offensive package of doing so than then with Eyton. I get the
interest, though, it would just be a very intriguing gamble, and I
would still call it a gamble to make when you're when you're so early into
this process. It's just he's so young and already so good and Tyrese Halibert
and I think the more important thing here is already just amazing. Then maybe
it just makes a ton of sense from that perspective, and you're looking at
a deal that's probably even if it's three plus one, it's gonna it can't
be longer than four years. And again, just looking at how early you
are into this project. By the time that just to phrase it this way,
by the time that Tyres Haliburt's on his next contract, DeAndre Ayton is
going to be half over, and so like there is that light at the
end of the tunnel argument to be made even if things don't pan out.
I'm just I'm very this feels like a very aggressive and cisive move by the
Pacers, and I'm going to be fascinated by how the partnership, if this
goes through, turns out with Haliburton and what other moves are left there for
them. I think you also probably need to make sure that you're pairing him
with eight and specifically with guys who can shoot at the four. That's not
a problem with what Jalen Smith did last year. I do view him as
more of a five defensively but offensively, like he can do the things of
a four, even if you're just counting on him for stationary shooting. And
you can also just go with lineups where maybe they're a little bit smaller,
but if you have Duarte, held and Haliburton on the court, you're ensuring
yourself of three shooters at all times. Even Brissette we've seen be able to
downsize, so maybe that's a potential lineup. Having a true five on the
floor helps you do those things. I really hope you don't see any go
go PADDs DeAndre eight minutes if if that happens, I don't think we would
see Zaiah Jackson eight minutes either. But it's it's for a Pacers team,
it is. I would say it's in a move that the level of aggression
to go after eight now and to actually making a sign and trade rather than
just get him out right. If it's an entirely it's not an entirely different
story, but it would be a lot different to me if you were just
signing him, and then maybe you're trading Turner elsewhere, or maybe you're I
mean, duel biggs are in vogue. We actually have a question on that.
In a second, maybe you try playing them together, because the way
that Miles Turner shoots, I'd be intrigued to see that. But it does
feel like they're more if you want to ensure that Phoenix isn't gonna match.
I would still feel differently or like this move a lot better if you had
the option of moving Miles Turner elsewhere or even just keeping him to maximize you're
asked at plays. It just feels a tinge too aggressive for me given the
stage at which the pacers are at. But I also acknowledge this knowing I
don't know what else I really want them to do. It's the only The
alternative would be letting this core marinate, essentially, maybe trading Turner and Healed,
seeing what you could get for them, letting them marinate as expected or
marinate or more organically without immediate reinforcement, and then you're prioritizing a high twenty
twenty three pick before you go and make moves like this. There's that could
be the right way, but they'll so this isn't necessarily the wrong way.
E is Eightan is so young, So those are my thoughts there. At
this point, it does feel like Eighten is going to end up in Indiana
or Phoenix. If the fact that Wendy mentioned the potential for an offer sheet,
I think if you see the Pacers do that, you really know that
they don't expect Phoenix to match. Or maybe they're just they were getting fed
up and tired of waiting for Phoenix to figure out what they were doing with
Kevin Duran, and perhaps they're trying to lock them into something that would make
their transactions a little bit more difficult, or they would just have to float
Eighten for until he's trade eligible around December January, depending on what date is
fixed in there. They don't tend to operate that way, which is why
if they did throw an offer sheet out there rather than make this assign and
trade, I'm not sure if it would be more of a harbinger of frustration
with the Suns or that they really believe Phoenix won't match. And I'll say
this, I don't expect this to be the case, But if the Sun's
just let Eton walk if this is not a sign and trade, if they
decide not to match, that is franchise malprou of the highest order. And
I don't know who would be more responsible, whether it's a James Jones or
a Robert Sarver thing. I know the relationship between Eton and Monty Williams and
CP three is supposed to be too far gone. You cannot let a fringe
star at the entering his age twenty four season just leave for nothing. And
that's why I don't expect it to be a possibility. I want to make
that clear. But since it's technically a possible outcome of all this would be
an absolute unmitigated disaster on the Sun's behalf and they would need to be vilified
should that happen again, I don't expect it to That's my thought on etan
to the Suns, though just the situation will be monitoring, and I imagine
there's there's some fireworks left as it pertains to this. Let's move on to
the mailbag, though this first question comes from I skipped it. He was
the first one to ask a question, so I feel bad in discord and
I ended up glossing over it in the last mail bag. But you're the
first question of the part two of it. So how's that comes from?
Herb Jones Enjoyer. I don't know when you're doing a next mail bag,
Dan, but what the fuck are the MAVs doing running out the worst version
of Kat Gobert with Wood McGee? Yeah, I look, I'm not I
can't argue with that McGee. Javal signed in Dallas. I don't understand the
deal was cheaper. And also shout out to MAVs CBA for MAVs Moneyball,
who pointed this out at the time that he believed that the deal was misreported
because the mass were probably going to use part of their MINIMLI to sign Jayden
Hardy, and that's exactly what they did. So the Javal McGee deals more
like three years, seventeen point two million. I still don't understand why they
had to pay that much for Javal McGee. I don't know why he was
among their quickest targets when you already had Christian Wood, Dwight Powell, Maxi
Kleiba on this roster. And I don't know why you to give a player
option like that couldn't have been a de option on the third year so,
and maybe it's one of those situations where the deal was already made and then
they went and traded for Christian Wood. They didn't think they were gonna have
them. I'm not saying teams wouldn't negotiate with players before the start of free
agency. I'm never ever saying that. Just still curious. Yeah, I
don't like the MAVs front cord if they are planning on playing Wood and McGee
gather a ton would can be technically a foreign offense, but you lose a
lot of the appeal of his offensive game, even his floor game, if
you're stashing him at the four rather than the five. I know there's a
defensive trade off of that, but it would make more sense to pair him
with Maxi Kleiba in my book, than JaVale McGee. And you're not I'm
assuming you're not bringing Christian Wood off the Bens. That's probably a recipe to
aggravate him. But JaVale McGee did say that he expects to be the starting
center in Dallas, which is just weird. I will say there's plenty off
season left we could still see moves from the MAVs at this point. Luca
also gave an interview with a Spanish outlet, I believe, and he had
said that he this was I had read the translated version, so I hope
I'm not. I hope that I'm not misinterpreting anything that was that was said,
or reading something that was a misinterpretation of what Luca said, but that
he had essentially told the reporter. I hope that the MAVs aren't done with
their signings, and I'm assuming he's alluding to the fact that, oh shit,
we let Jalen Brunson go for nothing. At this point, no one
expects that to be assigned and trade, by the way, so you are
now on this position where you lost your second best player without replacing him.
I know they have spent erginuity, but Jalen Brunson was dallas The second best
player last year and he just he just left like that's a biggie. So
I don't I think that there needs to be another move from Dallas here in
general, and maybe that opens up the front court rotation a little bit.
Davis Burton's not a net asset, but his salary could be an interesting matching
tool. He's owed sixteen million next year seventeen million in twenty three twenty four,
and then he has an ETO for sixteen million on that third year he
will pick it up, so he Davias Burton's is essentially on the books for
three years and like fifty million bucks at this point, maybe teams would take
that on again if they liked the idea of shooting. Like I said,
Dwight Powell is an expiring contract. You could also look at moving Christian Wood
again if you really wanted to. Don't you can't move mexically, but that's
just that's not allowed. He's too valuable to what they do. I propose
a trade for Dallas where they are sending out Tim Hardaway junior Josh Green,
who I think he flashed him defensive. He's not clearly not worth the draft
equity they spending on him. But Josh Green has some really nice defensive moments
for Dallas, almost all predicated on his physical tools this past year. But
that's something Josh Green, Tim Hardaway junior, Dwight Powell, and in twenty
twenty five first with top one protection, send that to Utah for Malik Beasley,
who cannot be aggregated until September six. For all the the CBA nerds
out there like myself and then Mike Conley. I think people are two down
on Mike Conley. And I also think that maybe the initial reaction here from
jazz fans, especially I know we have a ton that listen and watch this
podcast might think Utah's not getting enough, and with Trader Danny at the Helm,
I'm I'm here to tell you you're probably not wrong that that's how they
how they feel. I do think the structure is ultimately fair because Mike Conley,
people are semi too low on him based on how the postseason ended.
He's also thirty four years old. He will turn thirty five, I believe
before next season, and so you're paying him twenty plus million in the upcoming
year. Then he's guaranteed fourteen point three million out of the twenty two point
seven million in twenty three twenty four. I don't think his contract is necessarily
a net plus. And so to take on the three seasons left of Tim
Hardaway's the all fifty three point seven or two years, and let's call it,
because I would assume that they're going to guarantee that two years and forty
three million of Mike Conley there's not like forty five million excuse me of Mike
con League. There's not like this huge There's not a huge difference there to
me. And I think Conley does more for the MAVs, who could use
another offensive steward with Dalon Brunson gone. And he plays well off the ball,
shoots well from three, has a little bit of an off the dribble
and in between game, and I think he's probably a better passer than Jillen
Brunson at this stage. Joan Bruns is definitely more electric when he gets into
the lane looking at his footwork, and he's younger. Why wouldn't you think
that. I don't think you're losing anything defensively. You might even be gaining
something defensively there. That might overstate how much understate how much Jalen Bruns and
improved though, and also understate how old Mike Conley actually is. And then
Malik Beasley, it's sort of just like a different version of Tim Hardaway junior.
He has more pop. If you're the Mavericks, though, you're giving
off this first round pick because you want to see him, You want to
have the option of getting rid of him. He has a team option and
in the summer of twenty twenty three, keep your books more flexible than possible.
Is that worth giving up a twenty twenty five first round pick four.
I would probably do this if I was dallashed the Josh Green and the Josh
Green and the twenty twenty five pick essentially to get Conley and Beasley. Here,
the time for Donchage to win is now, and I don't know that
any of your biggest splashes are coming, or that your splash the trademark will
be much bigger than this based off how limited you are emmy assets that you
can give up. And for Utah, I think they need wings and Josh
Green qualifies just given their criteria. You open up the back cort rotation even
a little bit more by getting rid of Conley, Tim Hardaway Junior. Beasley
might be a little bit of a wash. Tim Hardaway Junior might be a
little bit more Winish on all offense. I think you could argue Beasley's a
little bit more wingish on defense looking at his physical tools. But you're getting
first round equity and a flyer on Josh Green. They to me, they
would be the party that's more likely to say no but maybe you can include
seconds to make that work. Moral of the story being, I don't necessarily
know what Dallas is doing. I do not if they're planning on, you
know, going dual big here, I don't love it. At the same
time, like Christian Wood on offense does allow you to play him with Javal
McGee or even Dwight Powell there also, Powell would be in sort of this
underrated acquisition for Utah because they still kind of need a starting center, whether
you want Jared Vanderbilt playing the five and his expiring contract just to sort of
a stop gap there. But yeah, the mask, I'd not love their
front courtrotation or their off season. I think I think they've had a rough
go of it, and I would say when you're looking at some of the
dual big setups that we could see next year, there's might be sort of
the least impressive of the bunch. You're certainly having this higher ceiling on Tat
and Colbert. You could also argue like the cost of entry for a Wood
McGee pairing, if that's what they're looking at. I won't discount Dwight Powell
being in the equation of maybe jumping McGee you're not playing Powell McGee together.
That would just be absolutely atrocious. I just like the idea of having being
able to play Doran Finnie Smith at the four and having minutes for Kleibo still
available at the five, or playing Clebo with Wood more than having McGee play
with Wood and you could still run out all those line up variations. Just
because it's the starting lineup doesn't mean they're beholden to it forever. Still just
not impressed by it though, And maybe they'll just try some funky things in
the front court there. I just I also don't think maybe I can't really
give a passion take on this is I don't think that they're done this off
season. It's sort of or matter. Maybe I'm just wishfully hoping that they're
not done. Drew and Drew asked which fans deserve a title the most and
why is it those poor Knicks fans. We had people trying to get the
discord saying it's actually Kings fans. Kings fans deserve at least a playoff berth
with their drought. They are a loyal, intelligible fan base, and that
franchise continues to not do right by them, even if the Kegan Murray pick
looks a lot better. And like I said on that podcast, I can't
you doubt the pick because it's the Kings that made it, which is fair.
But Keegan Murray is a really good player, and based off what I've
seen from him in Summer League, there might be some more on ball juice
there to explore than I thought, and how he holds up on defense will
be sort of a barometer for how valuable he becomes. But he could wind
up being just one of the maybe not the most elite players in the MBA,
but just someone that is consistently incredibly valuable at the highest level two really
good teams throughout his career, and so that doesn't Jen Jay and Ivy could
become a megastar, better than the Iron Fox, better than Samonas, and
then I'll make the Kings look bad. I don't think that pick was necessarily
the wrong one. The Kings made it, and so there they are subject
to doubt, and I do think that is warranted. But the Kings are
definitely in there. The Knicks are in there. There are so many fan
bases that deserve it. I think it would be cool just and I'm saying
these two teams specifically, I'll throw even I'll throw OKAYC Memphis and New Orleans
into here because it constantly feels like right now, and it's because of the
ten pole stars they have in place that people are sort of slobbering over there,
their stars, and when they're gonna leave there, we don't like we
know Zion just signed his extension. Jah just sligned his extension without a player
option. By the way, that's huge, But like Shay GiB stumps in
or signed his extension, it was still like a waiting game of oh,
when's okay S going to trade him? It feels like and maybe because the
way that the past OKAYC Corps was dismantled, these three teams have become like
been viewed as this minor league for the bigger, more glamorous markets and they're
not just this talent farm for the For these better teams, I would like
to see them get even the same benefit of the doubt or time or consideration
that Atlanta gets when looking at No, we're not waiting for Trey Young to
leave, and we even see it with the Pacers. It's not like,
oh, when someone gonna come and poach Tyrese Haliburton or when was someone gonna
come and poach Doma Simonis. So I feel like those fan bases, and
you could have thrown Milwaukee into here with the Honest, but he already won
his title. They're they're subject to some of the most like other teams,
like the Vulture, circling from other teams. They feel like they're that they're
at that level. I think even more so than a Minnesota. I think
you can throw Orlando into here, but they also haven't had a player until
maybe now with Pablo ben Caro, who sort of falls into this camp.
I think any fan base, though, like in an unheralded market, it
would be cool to see them win a title. Yeah, you could rank
it. Do I think Orlando fans might deserve it more than the Pistons fans
who'd at least seen one in more recent memory this millennia specifically. Sure,
absolutely, but like I don't like getting into it. I would. I
will say though that with Okacy, the New Orleans Pelicans and then the Memphis
Grizzlies, maybe because some of those players like Shay and Zion and jar are
such high profile, it does feel like they are getting the brunt of this
consideration when it comes to outlets, national meeting members, which just other teams
fan bases. I know, Lakers fans, they'll just photoshop and look,
kudos to them for the brazenness. I honestly don't care. But they'll just
photoshop anyone that they like into a Lakers jersey. And we saw it.
Look, we saw it with the Raptors fans. We're kind of just circling
Shay Gilder's Alexander before he signed his extension because he is from Canada. So
I feel for those fan bases a lot, and it would be cool even
like it feels like even in Houston, who's very early into the rebuild,
like they're being given more consideration. It's not like, oh, and I
know Drew Barr Smith didn't have a great summer league so far, but it's
not like, oh, we're trying to let's photoshop jaw and Green into a
Knicks jersey or something. And so I feel for the fan bases that get
more of that, like even Charlotte. I guess Charlotte probably belongs here because
everyone there's like this sentiment that LaMelo bub will eventually leave I also have an
issue, and this would exclude like, I'm not gonna feel bad, not
that I don't feel bad for Kings fans, but I just my empathy for
the Hornets when they've been such an all ran run organization, like the way
they just think is uninspiring there, and ditto with the Kings. It feels
like there'd be a path to actually keeping LaMelo ball in Charlotte if you were
able to competently go about building, building your roster, even hiring a coach.
We'll see how that pans out there. But I don't like it when
and this is someone who loves transactions I love so much about the NBA,
I'm speaking of slobbery. I guess that's what I'm doing at this point.
That being said, I really do I understand how the sausage is made and
also how the transaction game works, but I hate the idea of like as
soon as these guys now were so young and they haven't even started their rookie
extensions that it's already, oh, will they leave? They haven't even signed
their second contract, and now Moran and Zion and Jay all have. But
those three teams like they get it more than most. I don't want to
see Charlotte be subjected to it at all. I think Phoenix and Minnesota were
kind of in that boat, but then like things got good for Karl Anthony
Town's clearly wanted to be there. Devin Booker, why would he ever leave
Phoenix after what happened. I also think Phoenix was never in the same boat
as anyone. If they ever look like they were going to have a competent
infrastructure, players would want to go there in the Phoenix market, and we
saw that, and then having Devin Booker has held infinitely with Chris Paul and
now in the Kevin Durant sweepstakes. So those are the other three teams for
sure. You could throw Orlando in there as well, but it's I want
every I love every single person's team until I do my annual tradition where I
write about why your team won't re win the championship this year, and then
I hate your team, just as a fair warning to everybody. I probably
went longer on that question than than needed to be. But the most Cole
asked who would you have as a more probable breakout candidate for next season?
Patrick Williams or DeAndre Hunter. Who is your most unlikely breakout candidate of the
year. So let's start with Patrick Williams versus DeAndre Hunter. Here, I
feel like I haven't seen enough of Patrick Williams to understand what he might be
on offense, and there could be more higher end outcomes for DeAndre Hunter on
offense. Before he was in twenty twenty twenty one, he showed like an
in between game some off the dribble work. But then this year he's healthier
for longer and kind of I don't want to say Recedes, but as doesn't
make a ton of progress. And then I go look at Patrick Williams.
He is younger, he probably has more positional scalability on defense, and he
shot the three balls so well, granted on minimal volume, and you've seemed
like a little bit it feels like it's happening in slow motion or at a
processing speed that needs to be kicked up a notch. When he like attacks
sort of open space, I would love to see more of that. Are
either of these guys someone you could hand the ball too? And the half
court things are slowed down saying go get a bucket? I don't know.
I would say I would lean no for both of them, but Patrick Leews
feels more like the mystery box here, which gives him a higher end outcome.
I do think I like him better on defense officially, officially and given
the rate at which he's hit his threes, if he can stay healthy and
looking at how much the not that the the Hawks don't need DeAndre Hunter,
but just looking at how it feels like there's more room for Williams to grow
within the setup of the Bulls, Like, are they gonna try playing him
as a small ball five? Are they going to use them specifically at the
three and three and the four? Now you have Dejean Day Murray and Atlanta
to go with Trey Young. There actually might be more touches available for Patrick
Williams in Chicago because they have Zach Lavine and Demarda Rosen, But Lonzo Ball,
Alex Caruso even Voots. Those guys are more more ball movers. What's
gonna happen in Atlanta with John Collins? That might say a lot about DeAndre
Hunter's role. So I think I like I think I really like Patrick Williams
more than DeAndre Hunter. But those are two just to sort of really watch
and who's my most unlikely breakout candidate. I don't know whether to approach this
is like, who do I not think is going to break out? But
could I don't even know if I could answer that question because or that answered
in that way, because it wouldn't really make sense, or just someone who
people aren't talking about as a breakout candidate. I don't mean to go full
Homer here, but Quentin Grimes in New York where they just really need to
load up on wings that can play both ends of the ball, especially if
you're gonna have Jalen Brunson running your offense, and if you ever deigned to
play Jalen Brunson with Derek Rozer Emmanuel quickly I look at Grimes and even hinting
at some of it in Summer League. There's more like off the dribble creation
there than I thought. And I always viewed him as a little too small
to be considered a true wing the defense. He kind of showed both on
and off the ball as a rookie some of the players we've even seen in
Summer League, plus the relative reliability of his three point shot, it would
not surprise me if we look back on this is him having like the type
of season where he vaults into like, oh, this could be like the
premiere three and D weapon spectrum. Maybe there's a little bit more to explore
there as well. I don't think the touches are going to be there for
him on offense with the Knicks to really discover or become like this offensive revelation.
But he used someone to watch. I also don't know if this will
qualify, but he came on so late in the last year and he's doing
some things in the summer league now keeping on on Trey Murphy the third in
New Orleans. That is a that is a bad m effort. He is
someone who's going to be ridiculously good. His defensive range is just incredible,
such a disruptor without it feeling like he's ever taking any chances. And he's
not sort of this ubiquitous eclipse or blanket that Herb Jones is, but he
like he can lock down and the malleability he gives you when you look at
the like the scale of his assignments, whether it's do you really need to
go on this this primary ball handler or you need to go on a bigger
wing, Do we need you on like sort of a third option so that
you can take I just said, I don't. I feel like he doesn't
necessarily take kriks, but he's take risks. I'm trying to talk slower because
we have reviews that I talk too fast, and also making fun of my
I guess I'm too emo has been something that's been said in the comments as
well. Honestly, don't care, but I am trying to talk slower and
now I'm tripping over my words. They try and do that as someone that
you might need to be like. I don't want to call it a free
safety, but he can do that stuff, and there's just such a comprehension
to the way he defends I guess where maybe you're not always noticing it,
but he could be that guy if he's gonna play consistently in New Orleans this
year, and I would expect his minutes to get ratcheted up, knowing how
important that defense is going to be when you're playing Zion Williamson too, So
having him and Herb Jones on the court at the same time, that's someone
I think we look at where maybe the trajectory of his career changes, because
just like I said, maybe people weren't watching it ton of New Orleans lat
year, but he also came on so late. And then I'll throw one
more out here again. I don't know how unlikely this is. I would
just keep my eye on Josh Primo. I'm upset that it seems like his
summer league has done because he's in health and safety protocols. I talked about
this in the last podcast, but when we did that, we did specifically
on the Spurs. There's like a real pictable shiftiness to his game and an
acceleration when he's in the half court or in the open floor. And I
think this is someone who can eventually be the primary table set and decision maker
for an offense. The jury for me is still out on his scoring.
Like we've seen him hit some nice off the dribble looks and he'll eventually be
able just to if he's away from the ball or dribble into sort of slower
dribble threes. Can he be someone who's doing that at a at a heightened
a pace where I think with the Spurs need more than anything right now,
is this higher end, really quick off the dribble shop maker. I think
that Josh Primo was their best bet at getting that on the roster right now,
it's him, or it could be Malachi Brandham, depending on how how
much he actually plays. I don't know enough about Jeremy someone just yet that
doesn't seem to be his type of game. I would argue that it's Josh
Primo. There is a non zero chance, if not fairly likely, scenario
in which Josh Primo right now is the most important player on the Spurs,
just because knowing what they need, maybe not that tent whole building lock,
but the the person who also runs their offense but can be the the sun
around which everything else revolves. There's a chance that he can be that guy.
And I'm hoping that they really he played some higher stakes moments towards the
end of last year. I'm hoping they really just cut him loose this year
and we see him play a crap ton. So those are my three.
I don't know if they're unlikely enough for anyone, but that's from I think
anyone on the Knicks might catch people off off guard, still knowing that they're
kind of skewing like towards went now. But I'm Patrick Williams over DeAndre Hunter,
right now, I would also like, can we keep around on Yako
Congo. I don't know how much playing time he's gonna get, and Jail
and Johnson, those are just two players I really like in Atlanta, and
they're playing time could vary depending on how like the rest of the transaction games
stand out. But I have high hopes for both of those dudes, so
I would loop them in there. But Patrick Williams over DeAndre Hunter honorable mentions
when looking at breakout candidates to echo U or Jalen Johnson and Atlanta, assuming
that the opportunity could be there for them, and then Quentin Grimes in New
York, Trey Murphy the Third in New Orleans, and Josh Primo in San
Antonio. I feel like, based off what we've seen in Summerleague, I'm
gonna throw Isaiah Livers here too as well. For Detroit that would definitely qualify
as unlikely. He looks absolutely fantastic. And then even for Golden State,
this is gonna fall under the likely scenario of course, but keep an eye
on all their youngsters, like to just keep like Moses Moody, the one
of the plays that I saw where Jonathan cominga basically ran the Pick and Roll
with James Wiseman. That had to be giving. Like Golden State Warriors fans,
they had a climax watching that because like you're just watching what could be
the future unfold before your very eyes, and yet you just won a title.
So keep an eye on the Warriors kids, just if only to see
how much of a role some of them play next year. And it's amazing
at Jordan Pool as part of that sort of kid umbrella glad and asked people
are always going to wreck the tables for passing on Steph Curry twice? Does
Curry really become Curry if he goes to the Wolves? Which could really just
be a stem of how many slash which players do you honestly think could overcome
the environment they were drafted to versus the players that became as great as they
are because of where they were drafted to. This is funny because I saw
someone from King's Twitter, a Professor Oak on Twitter tweeting about how when Michael
Malone was there before they fired him, Ben Mcamore looked on the verge of
a breakout season and then once Michael Malone left, his career sort of derailed
from there. This is all to say that got me thinking about the same
question which was asked before that. This is all to say I think environment
matters a great deal. I think I don't know how to phrase this to
not make Nicks fans mad. I think if RJ. Barrett was on a
different team that it empowered him more and prioritize his offensive development more, that
we might be talking about him in the same terms as at least a tear
just below the John Morant Zion Williamson hype. Those two have ascended so much.
I don't ever want to put him in that camp. But that matters
a ton, and I don't think the Knicks has done a bad job developing
RJ. Barrett. The opportunity immediately matters, but there's also organizational track record.
What would Darren Fox have be in Sacramento right now? Would there be
less of a rollercoashness to a season. He's a fringe All star, if
not actual All star at his peak, But you put him on a different
team, better infrastructure, more consistency or stability around him, I think that
ship matters a bunch. So it's the opportunity, but then also the type
of the quality of that opportunity. So when you even have intriguing youngsters that
you could see and New York's a good case study, like why won't they
play will be topping and Julie's around them Moore. At the same time,
why does there see to seem to be like this rope too often on a
manual quickly? So with Curry, though, I do think teams a certain
players are so transcendent that you could have put them anywhere and they were just
broken out. They've been healthy enough. So do I think that Curry would
be Curry in Minnesota? Yes, But would he received the same level of
attention or consideration, because would Minnesota be the continuous contender that Golden State has
become. And look, there's a ship ton of luck that needs that went
into where Golden State is right now, you know, getting to Clay Thompson,
the whole tank thing for Harrison Barnes, the cap Trump with Kevin Durant.
But there was a time where people thought Curry was sort of a bust.
He was almost traded instead of Montellis in the Andrew Boga deal. So,
but he's also here because the wars have been so good and there are
limitations even how far he can carry a team, even if he is the
best player on one of the greatest dynasties in in NBA history. So do
I think he would have the same top ten of all time consensus if he
was in Minnesota? Probably not, because there were a perfect storm of circumstances
and good luck here. Do I think if Kawhi ended up with the Pacers
he still would have ended up becoming a superstar? I do. I think
that there's a level of talent that's just going to eventually win out. I'm
not a big system player guy, and even with Curry, it's very clear
that he is the as the kids say, he's the system player. I'm
sorry that was that was really awful, But so yes, I don't.
I think Curry would be Curry on a much smaller scale though, And that's
what a lot of this is. There's also like, what do you have
been traded by? Now? That's when people Knicks fansay, imagine he went
to the Knicks. Do you know what the Knicks wouldn't have traded him,
like to get Carmelo Anthony at one point because his career had started off so
slowly and he was impressive when he was healthy, but there were those huge
health concerns. Look at that first contract he signed, which also empowered what
the Warriors became because he went he was on the biggest deal of a contract
in NBA history. There's never been a better deal than that, just looking
at the length of it. So that's like, you know, that's something
that can't be replicated. At the same time, Curry is so good.
There are just certain players where you can't say, oh, just because they
were on to me, that they're on a different team, they would have
turned out differently or worse. I guess I just like, who are you
going to here's a good one? Like would Duncan Robinson b is good on
another team as he was in Miami. That might be a really poor comparison
because he was out of Miami's rotation by the end of that season. So
let's use Would Max, Druce or Gay Vincent be as good on another team
as they were in Miami? That I would say, No, that level
of player, I think is where you're get into the discussion. Maybe a
little bit higher than that. Of course, overall, the like a you
know, a Bruce Brown, is he gonna be as good in Denver as
he was in Brooklyn. I think he will be, but that's like sort
of the debate that you can have and maybe Gary Payton the second going to
Portland with Steph Curry specifically, I think he absolutely would have been a megastar,
probably on a smaller scale though, because I can't forecast the type of
success for Minnesota on the margins around Curry that Golden State had, and a
lot of that even if you don't want a critical in the state, which
is pure dumb luck like finding Draymond Yeah, okay, credit to their scouting.
Then he dropped the second round, But how many teams ended up passing
on him? You needed them to pass on him to wind up with Draymond
Green. You also needed David Lee injury to sort of pave the way for
Draymond Green. So fantastic question, by the way, glad you've asked.
Everyone always asks really good questions, but your past to have been absolutely fantastic.
Darkwing Duck asked listening to the YouTube exclusive and makes me think of this
question. Should the Steppian rule be removed or at least reworked or reimagined.
He's talking about the rumor where the Nets apparently asked for Anthony Edwards, Colmathy
Towns and four first in exchange for Kevin Durant. I don't know where I
land on this, and we had a mini discussion about it in discord.
I do think that the Steppian roule winds up saving certain teams from themselves.
I just the idea of like certain organizations being able to trade out like infinite
first round picks into the distance, even if you're saying that they can't be
traded in back to back years. If you're going to keep the seven year
window and allow for back to back like you could just trade your pick,
you're regardless. I guess that's something to consider and the reason you consider it,
And I'm assuming this might be what incited Darkwing Ducks question here in the
first place. The transaction game has changed where players aren't leaving in free agency
anymore. You are drafting them or you're trading for them. And I think
that's why a team like Minnesota, knowing that it needs a draft or trade,
went all in on Golbert because they were already too good to be in
a spot in the draft where they would have acquired the type of player that
they were looking for. So it's I don't have the right answer. Maybe
you just extend out the window to eight or nine years and still keep the
crux of the Steppian rule in place. Maybe it's you don't if it's another
team's first round pick, like you can trade it regardless, or what's wrong
with your pick commitments, Like if you've already sort of setting it up that
I don't even like that solution. I wouldn't get rid of the Steppian rule
altogether. We'd have to keep the I think we'd have to keep the finite
window there. Then like maybe even shrink it and say, do you want
to have the option of going the seven years out or it's now it's five,
but you can trade. You can just keep trading first round picks back
to back to back, if you want to do it that way. That
would probably be the extent to which I would consider removing it, just because
there are going to be certain organizations that move those picks in the wrong trades,
and I won't even shout any of them out. Just there are going
to be teams that continuously try and undo bad mistakes, or they're just going
to keep making bad mistake after bad mistake because they're addicted to mediocrity, and
so I do think the steppings necessary. That being said, even that sentiment
rings a little hollow because of the way that swaps work, Like those are
the way sort of around it. You ensure that team doesn't like doesn't have
control over their first round pick, but still has a first round pick.
And then even so, it's like you can trade that pick, agree to
trade it basically on draft night, so and you can move them later immediately
after as a salary. So I don't know how much it's actually preventing,
but the fact that you know, we can say that, then maybe it
is working. There's still so much room to operate within it that they're not
these strictures, the only actual strictures. Feel like this is okay, this
is only seven years out, and if you're gonna go even for they're out,
I'm definitely not going more than a decade, because you can't afford to
have teams just fuck themselves over for like all of eternity. And some teams
are fucked that way anyway, because they're just going to continuously self sabotage inadvertently
or not. But I might consider reworking it, and because of the way
the transaction game is right now, I'd be open to the Okay, it's
a smaller window, but we don't need to do this swap business like you
can trade away more of your your picks. I also wondered if the transaction
game and general changes in the next CBA, the next CBA negotiations with with
sort of the trade demands spearheading this and the way that free agent the context
of what free agency has become, and then with the tampering, this is
all going to be so so incredibly fascinating, and then durant trade demand with
four years left on his deal only adds to that intrigue. This next question
came live, so you're gonna have to forgive me if it feels too off
the cuff. But Haitian Mamba asks Jabari Smith versus Evan Mobley, who has
the higher defensive and offensive upside? Who you are a lot higher on Jabari
Smith Junior Sir than I am. I think Evin Mobley has the higher ceiling
on both ends. Definitely defense that he is everywhere everywhere on defense and the
things he allows you to do. He could defend point cards full time,
and I don't know if Jabari Smith Junior can do that. Maybe you trust
Jabar Smith Junior actually be your primary five more than Evin Mobley. I still
can't get there. That's just a function of Jared Allen's in Cleveland, so
we haven't had to see him play that role in volume or adjust to it
offensively. The ball handling skills with Jabari Smith Junior, the way that I
could envision him hitting these off the dribble looks at a higher not just clip,
but sort of a higher velocity, like the being able to rise and
fire so quickly or hitting them more of a dime. I think you make
a case that just by virtue of him having that ceiling he could he should
be better than Mobley. But the passing for Mobly, I feel like it's
going to exceed that of Jabbar and I've only seen what I've I've seen of
Jabari a little bit of college footage after the college season ended, and then
also of the summer league. But I think Evan Mobile has like top five
top ten player potential in the league at this point, and I'm not ready
to say that for Jabari Smith, I don't know who would be. But
if you're looking at you know, maybe maybe I'm just off on what Jabari
Smith's defensive value is going to be. I know there are a lot of
people that really prioritize or view highly his his switchability. I just don't think
he's ever going to be the best defender, let alone a generational defender like
Mobili is, and just even even by default there, Mobili should should end
up being the better player. But a good question. I'm always I'm always
for overreacting to summer league or for projecting on offense, though I honestly don't
like I don't think it's as far away, by far and away Jabari as
I think most people will answer that question. I think it's not even to
say arguable. But you could say Jabari and be very decisive about it,
and that's fine. But there's more to see from Evan Mobile on offense,
and right now or this past season, the Calves don't necessarily charge him with
it. I wouldn't be surprised to see more of running stuff through him in
the post or we already know that he could sort of run fast breaks,
but is he gonna slow it down run things from a face up position as
a table setter. I don't even know Jabari Smith Jr. As a score
sure can do that. I don't know if I trust him as a table
stir. There, so that there's to me, it feels like there's a
better than slight chance that Evan Mobiley ends up being the better player on both
ends of the floor than j Barie Smith Junior, Lil Microwave Taketo fantastic name,
as is Grant Williams the best three in D player of all time?
I mean the answer here is yes, obviously, but he was great in
that role. And you don't really see sort of like pure fours or bigs
in general, or like five's play that role at three and D role as
much anymore. Or it's normally a two or three or a guy who's defending
four positions, and Grant Williams is at most a two position player. I'm
very curiousy what he gets in an extension with the Celtics or in restricted free
agency next year. But just to reinforce this, here is b Ball Index
has a three point shot maker value and a defensive role versatility metric. Here's
every non point guard in the league last year to have a positive value as
a three point shot maker and then match Williams's defensive role versatility score. Here's
every non point guard, Desmond Baine, Alec Burks, Josh Richardson, Nick
Batoum, Caleb Martin, PJ. Tucker, and Bruce Brown. That's Look,
there's outliers there, mostly just Alec Burks, even though I do think
he's very good shot maker. That's pretty good company to be in. And
so Grant Williams is one of the more underrated players in the league right now.
I don't know if he can be a primary big on his own in
you know, under or against substantial reps. But he is three and D
and that's that's an anomaly at at the position or the type of role that
he plays. And so we know that his shotmaking came around. I don't
know that people appreciate just how it's the same thing with Cavan Mooney, Like
they are so pliable on the defensive and they can just switch across all over
the place, and that's what both of their teams did with them. Pallito
has two questions in twenty twenty two. Is it's smarter to keep a young
core or pull in la and collect than trade for a star. He adds
the Pelicans Thunder and Orlando Magic. Look, if you're in a market,
this is the way I'll phrase it. I lean towards it's better to draft
and start over. And I think we saw that even with the Spurs acknowledging
there in the middle and then you trade away Jean Day Murray rather than going
after the double down trade. A lot of that now is the market's going
to dictate who's available. You can't just will a Karl Anthony Towns or Kevin
Durant onto the shopping box. But you need even the even trades are risky
because you need to be mentioned players, the players you want a lot of
the times we're going to have a say and where they're going. Kevin Ramping
example one. He's so far named two teams, just two teams. And
so if you're not going to be on these shortlists, that narrows your margin
for error in these trades. Yeah, if you're in New Orleans, you
can go after the level of player like a CJ. McCollum mid career,
because he's not just going to have his pick of the litter. If you're
talking about top twenty, let's say an above even top twenty five now at
above guys in the NBA if you don't already have them or get them before
their rookie scale contract is over. So Brandon would be a great example.
They didn't draft him, La actually did, but you got him before his
second contract. It's really important to build your team through that route. To
me, if you're an Orlando, if you're in an Orlando in Oklahoma City
or the Pelicans. Now, I'm not against the non glamor markets going after
the bigger fish, and I think you can put Toronto is weird because there's
such a like impassioned, huge basketball fan base there, but they're not traditionally
mentioned among the flashiest free agency destinations. We saw Kawhi leave. I appreciate
the aggression you show on the trade market there. You can absolutely make that
move and they want a title, so it's fine. The cost of business
there was just so low. You didn't have to give up either of your
top two or three prospects at the time. You didn't have to go up
og or siakam So and I don't Van Fleet wasn't really a prospect at that
point, so you didn't have to give up two of your three top prospects.
If you had Peartle as your third prospect there and then the rose in
contract. He was a really good player, but it wasn't considered like this.
It was probably net neutral value at most. And if you lost Kauai
and the whole thing didn't pan out, you didn't win a title. You
got to start over. So the margin for error there it was just different.
When you were looking at the context. It was just almost a no
lose situation for Toronto, knowing how stale that core had grown, even if
it was a tough decision to make. When you're now making that move,
whether you're in Orlando or the thunder of the Pelicans, I think was really
the Kings you could throw there too. I think with interestring here, people
wanted Memphis, including myself, advocated for them to go after these win now
trades. Well, why should they get in on the Kevin Grant sweepstakes.
You have to worry about them either. They're asking for out in a way
that other teams don't. If you're not on those shortlists to begin with,
that really increases the value of not just the draft, but if you're going
to make the swing now trades it's or the since it's not necessarily an a
media trade. If you're gonna make a swing on the trade market, it's
to get guys while they're still on their rookie scale deals. That way,
you have maximum team control and then maximum time to sell them on your future.
And the karlthy Towns and Devin Booker are perfect examples. And I don't
even want to throw the Suns in there, just because Phoenix is such a
desirable market for players when they're being ran properly. So the Timberwolves, the
fact that he wants to be there that had to embolden them to go out
and make that Rudy Gobert trade in the first place. But you also probably
don't make that trade if you don't already have Ampy Edwards, who you've got
through the draft. You got karl Anthy Towns through the draft. And Rudy
Gobert's probably the closest to a level of player where it's oh, he might
have a say and where he wants to go, or he's top twenty five
anyway, and we're still you know, maybe we weren't on his initial list,
but he also played a position where, like you weren't going to have
a list. People have viewed the four years, one hundred and seventy million
dollars contract as an albatross. They don't view the money, for example,
like Kevin Durant, even knowing that he might only be Kevin Durant for two
more years or whatever. They don't view that as just a potential some cost
or something that could blow up in your face. And so the players that
you're most going to covet when they're in there later years, if you're not
going to be on their short list, you need to be damn sure like
Toronto was that this elevates you to contender status, if not contend or favorite
status. So I do think it's smarter to build through the draft or just
through acquiring players. If maybe you're at a point where you're in the middle.
Let's say, what the Spurs just it they didn't acquire this type of
player, but you traded Jean Day Murray and you got and Yeka Kongu.
If that's who they prioritize, so prioritize the picks or the players still on
their their rookie scale. Pelleto also asks Jonathan Isaac's trade value look at all.
Honestly, I have no fucking idea he is. His contract now is
more team friendly because it's not guaranteed. It's only more team friendly because he's
missed so many games. He's guaranteed seventeen point four million this coming year,
seventeen point six million in twenty three twenty four, and then fully non guaranteed
in twenty four twenty five, So you're essentially looking at he's guaranteed two years
and twenty five million dollars. That's not like you want to take a swing
if it blows up in your face. You could absolutely do that. You
also have to judge that against okay towards left ACL suffer the right hamstring injury.
They expect him to be ready for next year, I believe still,
but they still haven't given a timeline for his return since that hamstring setback.
I don't know what you would give up for him. He's a defensive system
unto himself. When you watch him, he is really just like a blanket
of coverages rolled into one, and there's value in that. I don't know
what he is on offense. There we never we haven't watched him in over
two years, for one, but there were never enough ball skills there.
His jumper never fell at a consistent enough clip off the catch, I mean
for long enough for me to believe that there was the element, like the
standstill element there. I think, assuming his explosiveness isn't the least compromised from
these hamstring and ACL injuries, you could definitely use him in sort of a
conventional big man's role, have him screen and then dive, because he could
certainly finish that way. And if you're playing him with a floor spacing five
or even at the five, and he can be position lists on defense playment
to three for all I care. If there's all these shooters around you that
can hold up, that would be a route that you could go. I
don't know which teams are equipped to make that risk. I think you're looking
at probably if I'm Orlando, just knowing if Palo ban Caro, Wendel Carter
Junior there, you did resign Mo Bamba. I don't think Orlando needs to
go into Seller's moment. If I was offered two like medium first round picks
for him, I'd probably do it. If they're too life, it's a
contender, or just really like if it was a Phoenix level first round pick,
and that's it. No, I'm not doing it. If Phoenix came
along, no one was offering salary filler and two first round picks, and
they're the second ones. I'm protected too. And now you're putting yourself in
a position where, let's say it was just twenty three and then twenty five,
so you're looking at the number twenty seven pick twenty twenty three, but
two thousand and twenty five. That's far enough away too. It's like,
all right, if they don't have eight and on that roster, even if
they trade for Kevin Durant, him and CB three are gonna have aged out
of their primes by that point. I'm there where I would consider it.
Maybe you've stuck it out this long and you have the non guarantees kicking in
that you don't want to sell that low. I just that's probably what his
value would be to me. And Orlando is also an interesting point because I'm
even talking about them. I'm so I'm in love with some of the players
on their team. I love Jail and Sous I think more than the average
person. At this point. Franz Wachner was great. I'm still like I'm
still an Arja Hampton believer a little bit. Mark l Foltz has been fine
for them. I'm probably like the most high. I don't know how you
couldn't be on Pala ben Caro after watching him in Summer League. They have
a nice understated base there and even if look if you will, he just
like develops any semblance of a consistent offensive presence. If they were let's say
someone in discord mentioned this, would they be a Donovan Mitchell destination in theory,
Yeah, three years left on Mitchell deal, you make that dice roll.
I could picture them being a force immediately, but you know so little
about a lot of your team now. Just can Wendell Carter juw your follow
up what he did last year? I think he will, just because I
think the Bulls were misusing him a ton for Yacht to Orlando. We know
Jolen Sungs will be better, but he's also only in year two. Franz
Wagner is only entering year two. But like you could talk yourself into doing
that. Does Donovan Mitchell want to stay beyond his current contract? Because those
three years aren't enough. You needed larger window than that, or at least
the promise that there will be one, or that he won't turn around and
request a trade a year or two down the line where he's closer to free
agency. That's what I meant in the previous question, of which was also
asked by Paulito. The teams in those markets have to think more thoroughly about
that, which is why you wouldn't necessarily move Jonathan Isaac right now, because
if that higher end defensive outcome is there, you trust that he'll have a
set jumper and then he'll remain healthy. You want his current contract in full
at seventeen point four million per season over the next three seasons to guarantee it.
That gives you a leg up on the competition. It's tough, and
I wouldn't trade him at his lowest value. But if you had a team
giving you, let's say it's an immediate first round pick, you know it's
not going to be great, but there's a first round pick in twenty and
twenty five, maybe even later that is going to be loosely if not unprotected,
I would I would consider it, and that's just where his trade value
is for me. His next question comes from Thomas Ardiguez. What are the
chances Damian little leaves Portland and how can the Miami Heat acquire him. Damian
Lowis is not going to be leaven in Portland for at least a year now
because he signed his extension, which is I mean good for him. He
is now signed on Portland in theory through twenty twenty six, two twenty seven.
I don't know if the final year on that is a player option,
but we're not gonna be dealing with his future until at least next summer.
If he does ask for out, and I don't know that he will.
I mean, he signed this extension. It's also a boatload of money.
He's like two years, one hundred and twenty million. Why wouldn't you sign
that extension? Is my is my point, because you could always ask for
out later. With that in mind, Do I think he finishes this contract
in Portland. I'd probably bet against it. But they seem very committed just
looking at what they did to retooling around him, so I'm not of the
mind that this is just going to be something they hammer out in the next
year. It could be, it could not if he wanted to acquire him.
If they want to acquire Donovan Mitchell, if they want to acquire Kevin
Durant, if they want to acquire any other star. The path right there
now is salary filler, whatever it takes, and it might take Kyle Lowry
depending on how much that player makes. But it's you put Tyler Hero and
Nikola Yovic on the table and then you max out the picks and swaps that
you can get. Assuming there they can, you know, make the twenty
twenty five pick with Okay see unprotect that. If they can give Okay s
something to facilitate it, you can give your twenty twenty three first, twenty
seven first, and twenty twenty nine first plus swaps galore so twenty twenty four,
twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight. So it'd be three picks,
three swaps. I'd still consider yo which a pick. So let's say four
first, three swaps and Tyler Hero. That's the crux of your best offer.
That's not that's not nothing. If it's if that's what you offer for
Donovan Mitchell. And the Heat apparently made a pitch or to the Jazz for
Donovan Mitchell. They deem the offer insufficient. That's you know, we're talking
about Jimmy Butler's on the older end. Kyle Lowry maybe he's part of that
deal, but for Donovan Mitchell, he wouldn't need to be. He's on
the older end. You're giving them Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell and knowing they
have BAM, that changes how you view their later picks either. That's a
lot though. I don't think Damian Lillard is going to be a target of
the heat, although with Kyle Lowry on an expiring contract next summer, if
Damian Lillard did ask for out, that does become an intriguing destination just through
ways in which you can build build offers there. I'm not ready to think
about Dame asking for out now that he's signed the extension and just given the
direction they were cruitly headed and enter entering the off season. Zach asked,
what is the percentage increase of double triple teams Yanna sees without Middleton on the
floor. Zach, I don't know have access to that data that I think.
I'm as far as that's the second spectrum level shit that I think would
be behind team walls. I can tell you though, with data that I
do have access to Johannis was doubled on over one third of his regular season
possessions. That is a lot, and the Bucks scored incredibly efficiently on those
possessions in which he was double teamed. I imagine the percentage of possessions in
which he double team goes up when Middleton is off the floor, just because
you don't have the threat that level that Middleton is to counteract. There,
you still Drew Holiday. So maybe it's comparable. But if if you're running
Yannis centric lineups, you would want to double him more like conceptually, if
I'm a defense, you're gonna want to double him less when he's playing with
Drew end or Middleton. Then when he's not. This will be the final
question. It's very quick. Deuce Harts asked what is the baseball equivalent,
and he asked this to NBA maath. It's at MLB underscore Math. So
if you like a baseball at MLB underscore Math, at MBA underscore math as
well, follow just sports math in general. Adam the former co O it's
still part of this podcast collaborator good friend, I love him, but follow
sports math at sports math Net. And then the parent handles. There's there's
one for the NFL that's at QB Underscore Math, one for the MLB at
MLB Underscore Math, one for the NHL at NHLs Underscore Math, and there
is one for PGA Golf at PGA Underscore Math. With that and as always,
thank you all for the questions. This is your first time listening.
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ultimate building block that you would never trade or Letto unless you're than its Frank Murky