1 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,679 We're back with another edition of The Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emily Jasinski, 2 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,679 culture editor here at the Federalist. As always, you can email the show 3 00:00:24,679 --> 00:00:28,839 at radio at the Federalist dot com, follow us on Twitter at fdr LST. 4 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:33,159 Make sure to subscribe wherever you've download your podcasts as well, and to 5 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,520 the premium version of our website. We're joined today by Calder Walton, one 6 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:42,119 of the world's leading scholars of intelligence, national security, and also an historian 7 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:46,479 at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. The author Calleder is the author of the 8 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,600 new book Spies, the epic intelligence War between East and West, such a 9 00:00:51,679 --> 00:00:55,880 timely and important topic. Calder, welcome to the show. Well, thank 10 00:00:55,880 --> 00:00:58,079 you so much for having me, Emily. It's great to be here. 11 00:00:58,439 --> 00:01:03,000 Of course, I'm curious a little bit about how you ended up specializing in 12 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,319 the area of intelligence. I mean, a lot of people are have been 13 00:01:07,359 --> 00:01:11,840 fascinated by these questions for years and the subject for years. For you personally, 14 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:18,280 what drew you to starting to study intelligence and to follow it so closely, 15 00:01:18,879 --> 00:01:19,959 Well, it's a it's a great question, thank you, and it 16 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:26,079 is. You're quite right. It's an unusual field to be specializing in I 17 00:01:26,239 --> 00:01:33,159 was, I guess, like everyone else had had ideas about intelligence and spies 18 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:38,040 from James Bond onwards. But more seriously, it was when I was an 19 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:44,920 undergraduate I read a book by Christopher Andrew called The madrocn Archive, and this 20 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:52,560 was the an expose a of the KGB's history using documents smuggled out of KGB 21 00:01:52,799 --> 00:01:57,719 archives. And I read this and I was just absolutely fascinated by it because 22 00:01:57,719 --> 00:02:07,120 it was what he managed to do was to make it accessible, make it 23 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:12,560 interesting, but yet at the same time rigorous. So I when met Chris, 24 00:02:12,599 --> 00:02:17,639 and I'm a long story short, he's turned into my PhD supervisor. 25 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:23,560 He's a colleague of mine, briend mentor, and it was really following in 26 00:02:23,599 --> 00:02:28,280 his footsteps. He's the one, more than anyone, who set up this 27 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,199 field of research, and he's been an inspiration in my career. So it's 28 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:38,840 about trying to demystify the role of intelligence in international relations. We all have 29 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:43,280 ideas about Mission Impossible and James Bond and that kind of thing, and yes, 30 00:02:43,319 --> 00:02:46,520 there are certainly some extraordinary plots and twists and stories along the way, 31 00:02:46,759 --> 00:02:53,240 but also there's a there's a much more significant and I'd say meaningful impact of 32 00:02:53,360 --> 00:03:00,439 intelligence agencies for good and bad on both sides of conflicts in international relations. 33 00:03:00,479 --> 00:03:07,919 And so that's been my motivation to study this and the concept of studying East 34 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:12,080 and West and the sort of raging one hundred year wars you're right about right 35 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,520 in the beginning, and in fact you've start in Ukraine. This is, 36 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:20,879 I mean, so incredibly timely. I want to ask what it was like 37 00:03:21,599 --> 00:03:24,840 writing this book at a moment when you sort of have the West at increasing 38 00:03:24,879 --> 00:03:34,479 tension with China and where you have former KGB agent flat App And I mean 39 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:38,560 even just this week there's leaks from the CIA in the Law Street Journal that 40 00:03:38,719 --> 00:03:43,360 they knew about nord Stream, didn't think Ukraine had the capability to blow up 41 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,520 norwide Stream. So what is it like sort of sorting through this this mess 42 00:03:47,719 --> 00:03:53,039 of competing leaks and information while there's a hot war and a cold war basically 43 00:03:53,080 --> 00:04:01,280 in both arenas well. Difficult in one word, But it was actually a 44 00:04:01,319 --> 00:04:09,080 result of the overload of information that was coming at us all over the last 45 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:15,759 you know, years about intelligence and national security and spies. That that that 46 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,959 was really what drove me to try to put this in a framework for both 47 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,800 myself to understand it, and I hope for for readers of the book and 48 00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:28,759 listeners of it as well, to try to bring perspective and what we're seeing. 49 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:35,160 It seems that, you know, living through all of the Trump Russia 50 00:04:35,319 --> 00:04:41,879 saga, I was frequently approached by news media outlets to say, well, 51 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,319 this is unprecedented, what's going on. As the more you look at it, 52 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:48,560 it's like, well, it's not actually the means that the Russia was 53 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:55,560 using to interfere, and you know, that's a it's an overwhelming conclusion of 54 00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:00,800 the of the intelligence community and Congress that Russia did try to do that we 55 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,600 can leave aside the whole issue of what effect. I don't think anybody knows 56 00:05:05,079 --> 00:05:10,439 that it had. But anyway, Russian meddling in elections goes right back. 57 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,240 And it was during the initial bit of the research of the book that I 58 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,439 found out that this has been going on at least since nineteen forty eight, 59 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:23,120 that there have been a similar sort of efforts on the Gremlin to basically exploit 60 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:28,959 the freedoms in the US electoral process in order to promote candidates that were favorable 61 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,800 to the Gremlin, so to get back to you a question that the book 62 00:05:32,879 --> 00:05:40,120 was really grew out of my desire to give some sort of calm perspective about 63 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:46,879 this of what were we seeing unfold, But it became increasingly more urgent as 64 00:05:46,879 --> 00:05:50,319 I wrote it. So you know, then we're living through COVID and then 65 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:56,160 the war in Ukraine, and to say nothing about China, and there's this 66 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:02,720 sort of significant debate that your listeners well know about it within academic and historians 67 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:06,839 and scholars and policymakers of are we in a new Cold War? Well, 68 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:14,240 when I was looking at this interviews with CIA officers about Russia and more importantly, 69 00:06:14,439 --> 00:06:17,800 I would say China, it's as clear as day. So of course 70 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,480 we're in the Cold War. And actually it's the other way around. As 71 00:06:20,519 --> 00:06:25,600 far as intelligence and national security is concerned. We're in a cold war and 72 00:06:25,639 --> 00:06:29,720 the main thing is we hope that it doesn't turn hot. So suddenly, 73 00:06:29,759 --> 00:06:32,879 when you see it from that perspective, it's like, oh, okay, 74 00:06:33,319 --> 00:06:36,800 I think I really need to try to get this book out quicker as quickly 75 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:42,759 as possible in order to contribute to this public policy conversation. So that's to 76 00:06:42,759 --> 00:06:46,240 get back to your regipal question. Very difficult to write a book that is 77 00:06:46,319 --> 00:06:51,680 what's called contemporary history, where things keep changing, but the overall themes in 78 00:06:51,759 --> 00:06:59,240 there remained the same. The most striking document I found during the research for 79 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:02,199 the book is is what I start the book with. I quoted at the 80 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:09,879 beginning, and this is a British intelligence report from an m I six officer 81 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:17,480 who is meeting with a Ukrainian exile and nationalist exile in neighboring Poland, and 82 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:25,720 he is the Ukrainian exile is begging for Western help to try to defend his 83 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,439 country from the Russians. He says that Russia's Russia only controls a small sliver 84 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,439 of the country around the railways, and that we need to push back, 85 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:39,160 and the M six officers says, well, we're going to try to do 86 00:07:39,199 --> 00:07:42,800 whatever we can, but we're not going to intervene if that's going to spark 87 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:47,959 a actual war between the West and Russia and Emily. This document was written 88 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:56,680 in February nineteen twenty, two hundred years hundred years to the month from when 89 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,920 Putin launched his war. So it was one of those moments in my career 90 00:08:00,959 --> 00:08:03,720 as a historian where I sort of had to read the document, reread it, 91 00:08:05,399 --> 00:08:07,040 take a picture, send it to my wife and say are you are 92 00:08:07,079 --> 00:08:13,519 you? Am I misreading this? And it is literally you change the name 93 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:18,079 in the report, you say, you know, you change the word bolshevik 94 00:08:18,839 --> 00:08:24,240 um and Lenin for Putin, and it's the same underlying issues. Um. 95 00:08:24,839 --> 00:08:28,959 It's quite striking. So as as I say in the in the early section 96 00:08:28,959 --> 00:08:31,759 of the book, what's Old is New again? You know, this is 97 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:37,720 a replay in many ways of where we've been, and a replay in some 98 00:08:37,799 --> 00:08:43,120 fascinating ways of even the sort of West's approach and how that you know, 99 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:48,080 it's it's hardly unprecedented for the West to, you know, topple, try 100 00:08:48,159 --> 00:08:52,559 to do try to do a little regime change here and there over the course 101 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,879 of history. And so that's another sort of side of this coin. It's 102 00:08:56,879 --> 00:09:03,159 that when you look at the sort of Russia collusion narrative that sprouted up after 103 00:09:03,399 --> 00:09:09,919 Colonald Trump entered the primary there's an interesting character, Igor Denchenko, who is 104 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:15,200 the primary subsource for the Steel dossier, and Chenco. We learned from the 105 00:09:15,279 --> 00:09:20,320 Durham Report it's actually suspected by the FBI of being a Russian agent, and 106 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:26,440 that wasn't even clear to the FBI when they started paying Danchenko as a subsource 107 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,799 in the Russian collusion investigation, which raises this big question. I think of 108 00:09:31,519 --> 00:09:37,679 that's almost evidence in and of itself that the Russian strategy is just to throw 109 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:41,559 things at the wall, see what sticks destabilize the United States? Is that 110 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:48,600 a proper lens to view the entire Russia collusion kind of twenty sixteen saga through 111 00:09:48,759 --> 00:09:52,480 At the end of the day, they were just trying to distabilize the US 112 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:58,519 even more than they were trying to promote or toppel regimes. I think that 113 00:09:58,879 --> 00:10:01,720 you've had a nail on mad the way that I the you know, the 114 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,639 the entire sort of Steel dossier, which has been largely discredited. The details 115 00:10:07,639 --> 00:10:13,320 have been discredited. Would I would say though, that the underlying issue of 116 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:20,559 whether Russia was seeking to interfere in the US presidential election, if you take 117 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,720 it at that level, it was correct the details. And then as you've 118 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:30,360 just pointed out, some of his sources were let's just say, a user, 119 00:10:30,519 --> 00:10:35,399 perhaps a British term, a bit dodgy, and that's probably been polite. 120 00:10:35,039 --> 00:10:41,840 I think that the issue is then you've identified this is whether Russian services 121 00:10:41,759 --> 00:10:52,000 identifying that Christopher Steele was trying to collect intelligence on Russian interference in the election 122 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:56,679 of the Trump campaign, deliberately fed disinformation to Steel. And this is a 123 00:10:56,759 --> 00:11:05,320 classic ploy and it goes again right at the nineteen twenties of slipping bogus information 124 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:13,440 false you know, creating forgeries and then slipping them out when there's a leak 125 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:18,120 of something important. The Soviet strategy, literally from the nineteen twenty two one 126 00:11:18,279 --> 00:11:22,600 was was then to pollute the narrative by planting forgeries, so that the end 127 00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:26,840 result is that the recipients don't know what's up from down, what's right from 128 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,120 wrong. And it's in many ways that you know, you have to sort 129 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:39,759 of begrudgingly admire it. It's an absolutely masterful strategy. The overwhelming thing about 130 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:43,960 this is what we're talking about here, really is covert action, whether it's 131 00:11:43,279 --> 00:11:48,639 Western covert action, you know, the most extreme, as you mentioned coups 132 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,879 in far away lands and in the in the middle of the Cold War, 133 00:11:54,159 --> 00:12:00,440 or what the Soviets and Russians that they called active measures. The thing is, 134 00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:05,679 from both sides of the divide, those COVID actions only really work. 135 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:13,279 They're only effective when in the history shows this when they are pushing at grievances 136 00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:20,279 and underlying issues that already exist in the society. So the KGB was fantastically 137 00:12:20,279 --> 00:12:26,240 good in the nineteen sixties and seventies of identifying and inflaming by using forgeries and 138 00:12:26,279 --> 00:12:33,879 so on, disinformation, inflaming domestic US race relations. Domestic US race relations 139 00:12:33,879 --> 00:12:39,080 were already you know, literally in flames with riots and late nineteen sixties and 140 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,159 US cities, and what the KGB did was to make them worse. They 141 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:50,679 slip disinformation into into media to inflame. Particularly we can now see relations between 142 00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:56,480 black communities and Jewish communities in the US. So this was a deliberate ploy, 143 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:03,320 but they were pushing at grievances in a society that already exists, and 144 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:07,840 that, I'm afraid is the somber conclusion that I come to when when we 145 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:15,039 talk about Russian meddling and interference in the US in our own time, is 146 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:22,159 that the wounds, if you like, in American society that Russia exploited, 147 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:26,440 that they're American maid And you know, I don't really have any politics. 148 00:13:26,519 --> 00:13:30,919 I'm you know, one of these people that's in the middle and it just 149 00:13:31,039 --> 00:13:33,840 it seems. And I should also say that I'm I was born in this 150 00:13:33,879 --> 00:13:37,159 country, and I love this country. But we've got to the point where 151 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:43,159 we can't even agree on facts anymore. We're both both sides of the political 152 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,000 spectrum are so polarized that you know, we can't agree on basic things, 153 00:13:46,039 --> 00:13:50,279 we can't agree to disagree. And I think that this is just a gold 154 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:56,159 mine for people that are headling in disinformation. I'll just mentioned one last point 155 00:13:56,159 --> 00:14:05,039 that I had the extreme fortune to interview a former Soviet actually checked a check 156 00:14:05,159 --> 00:14:13,600 Sbakian intelligence officer who specialized in disinformation. This was in twenty eighteen, twenty 157 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,879 nineteen. Unfortunately since then he's passed away. But we had a wonderful interview 158 00:14:18,879 --> 00:14:22,080 of the course of an afternoon, and my concluding question was, you know, 159 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:26,399 if you were doing what you used to do working for the Eastern Block, 160 00:14:26,799 --> 00:14:31,000 an Eastern Block intelligence service specializing disinformation, what would you think about today? 161 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,600 He said, it's just a golden age for a disinformation anyone. He 162 00:14:35,679 --> 00:14:39,279 called himself a you know, my old job, he was a peddler of 163 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,440 lies, and he said, it's just, you know, we couldn't have 164 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:50,120 even dreamed about this that people. Social media allows for messages to be transmitted 165 00:14:50,159 --> 00:14:54,480 quicker, more easily, and then also this extraordinary willingness on the on the 166 00:14:56,519 --> 00:15:01,759 part of audiences to just accept as fact things that can be disproved. And 167 00:15:01,799 --> 00:15:05,720 I'm saying this in a non political way, I hope, because it seems 168 00:15:05,759 --> 00:15:15,639 to me to be true on both sides of the political spectrum on this country. 169 00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:20,320 Want to win a free laptop to celebrate the three hundredth episode of the 170 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:26,080 Tech It Out radio show and podcast where I break down geek speak into street 171 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:30,440 speak. Each week, We're giving away an Asus ZenBook fourteen laptop. 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Absolutely, And especially historically, it's another odd parallel 177 00:15:52,960 --> 00:16:02,840 when we talk about the Cold War and how Russian assets ascerbated inflamed tensions in 178 00:16:02,919 --> 00:16:07,600 the United States in the West, something we also see happening is, you 179 00:16:07,639 --> 00:16:14,240 know, back then, you'd have JEdgar Hoover or someone at the CIA having 180 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,840 informants involved and there, I mean, there are theories about how far this 181 00:16:18,879 --> 00:16:25,360 went that are fantastical in Manson family in many many ways. But what you 182 00:16:25,399 --> 00:16:32,240 see there is Western intelligence doing the same work and inflaming those tensions. You 183 00:16:32,279 --> 00:16:36,519 know, the FBI informants that we know, for instance January six, like 184 00:16:36,519 --> 00:16:42,000 politics aside on that. You know, obviously that was largely an organic I 185 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:47,080 mean, I was reporting live from there, largely an organic thing. It 186 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,600 didn't need to be stoked by the FBI. But we know the FBI did 187 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,679 have informants there now it's reported in the New York Times. So it's also 188 00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:59,559 a parallel in the sense that what you have is, even as Russian intelligence 189 00:16:59,679 --> 00:17:06,039 is trying to inflame tensions in the West, Western intelligence agencies that that sort 190 00:17:06,039 --> 00:17:11,480 of long brewing argument about how you need to separate the intelligence from the apps, 191 00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:15,880 they still can't do that, even after you we have, you know, 192 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,200 decades of Cold War history in the rear view mirror. That's so, 193 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,160 I think that's right. I mean, I think on the issue of the 194 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:26,920 FBI running informants, it would also perhaps you can look at it the other 195 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,920 way around. Which is, if the FBI didn't have eyes on the ground 196 00:17:32,039 --> 00:17:37,039 at an event such as that, wouldn't that be a failure on their part. 197 00:17:37,319 --> 00:17:41,480 So it's this absolute you get to the core of it, of this 198 00:17:41,599 --> 00:17:45,319 balance between security on the one hand and civil liberties on the other hand. 199 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:51,880 So and being so you know, being a half American half British person, 200 00:17:51,960 --> 00:18:00,400 I can sort of see both countries as it were from afar. And one 201 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,119 of the striking things, of course, is that in the US we do 202 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:11,759 not have an equivalent of what written has the m I five. M I 203 00:18:11,799 --> 00:18:18,480 five's powers compared to the FBI are much more expansive. The FBI is, 204 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,400 for all intents and purposes, a law enforcement agency. It does, and 205 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:29,200 it has an intelligence component and has had for good and bad, with colossal 206 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:36,559 abuses of power historically, as you point out, But it's powers are nothing 207 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:42,680 like that of m I five. M I five doesn't have powers of arrest, 208 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:49,599 but it is not driven by a prosecution in mind. It is, 209 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:56,559 if you like, a sort of It collects intelligence on preventative threats and people, 210 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:03,599 things that pose national security threat and those might most of those historically don't 211 00:19:03,599 --> 00:19:07,680 go anywhere near a court and that's unlike the FBI. So what I would 212 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:15,599 say to you and your listeners is that the US does have that buffer of 213 00:19:15,279 --> 00:19:22,400 the FBI being driven with one eye towards a prosecution, and at least that 214 00:19:23,039 --> 00:19:33,920 it means that there isn't as broader powers for investor to give investigations that I 215 00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:38,960 think would alarm a lot of Americans. This debate your listeners might remember about 216 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:45,720 whether the US should set up a domestic intelligence agency that crept up after nine 217 00:19:45,799 --> 00:19:52,599 eleven, and I think I fear that when the next cataclysm does occur, 218 00:19:52,799 --> 00:19:59,960 and unfortunately it will, history shows there will be another major national security disaster 219 00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:07,319 to I predict that this debate of whether the US should create a domestic intelligence 220 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:11,440 agency, because law enforcement and intelligence are two separate things, I think that 221 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:19,440 will raise its head again if we focus specifically on Russia, Putin in particular, 222 00:20:19,559 --> 00:20:26,759 there's all kinds of speculation, and it goes beyond speculation about his perspective 223 00:20:26,759 --> 00:20:30,319 on all of us, or his conduct and all of us, given his 224 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,279 personal history with the KGB. But you also right about Stalin, and you 225 00:20:34,319 --> 00:20:37,680 know, Parson, one of the difficult things about modern Russian history is just 226 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:44,039 like parsing understanding the different kind of interpretations of Marxism, of Stalinism, of 227 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,400 Leninism, of Putinism and all of that. So when we're trying to just 228 00:20:48,519 --> 00:20:52,720 like trying to understand Vladimir Putin, trying to understand through the lens of the 229 00:20:52,799 --> 00:20:57,160 KGB and through the lens of the sort of Russian history that he's most attached 230 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:03,359 to, committed to what's important in now, well, a couple of things 231 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:10,640 struck me as I was watching events closely in Russia, as with so many 232 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:15,200 people. The first thing, think about it this way. The head of 233 00:21:15,279 --> 00:21:19,480 Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sir j. Narishkin, his name is so this 234 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:26,559 equivalent of the director of the CIA, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, 235 00:21:26,839 --> 00:21:32,519 is also the head of the Russian Historical Society. So you know you're 236 00:21:32,559 --> 00:21:34,759 in a weird place when this would be the equivalent of the Chief of m 237 00:21:34,799 --> 00:21:40,240 I six being the head of the Royal Historical Society, or the Director of 238 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:45,559 Central Intelligence being the head of the American Historical Association. So Putin looks back 239 00:21:45,599 --> 00:21:52,079 on history, and his all and his agencies look back on history as a 240 00:21:52,079 --> 00:22:00,680 means of propaganda. And what I found absolutely striking in the year before the 241 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:07,799 invasion, the Russian invasion, the war on Ukraine was actually how Stalin. 242 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:15,119 Within Kremlin sponsored publications, particularly by its intelligence services, Stalin re entered the 243 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:21,319 narrative. So, you know, for the first decade of this century under 244 00:22:21,319 --> 00:22:27,440 Putin, Stalin had been a problem that was sort of you know, acknowledged 245 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:34,440 that there were abuses made. That's about as far as it went, and 246 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,640 you know, we need to get on with life going forward. That was 247 00:22:38,759 --> 00:22:45,720 sort of the narrative within the intelligence services about Stalin's role in Soviet history. 248 00:22:48,279 --> 00:22:56,559 But in about twenty nineteen twenty Stalin started to reappear, and it was ominous 249 00:22:56,599 --> 00:23:00,359 for those of us that were looking at this in sort of my new detail. 250 00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:04,880 But to your point, how do we think about Putin? How do 251 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:12,599 we think about Stalin? Well, in my view, there are absolutely striking 252 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:22,119 similarities as as regarding the use and abuse of intelligence. So Stalin, one 253 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:30,640 of the most brutal dictators in history, was convinced that he was the supreme 254 00:23:30,319 --> 00:23:36,759 chief intelligence analyst. He didn't need his intelligence agencies to tell him what was 255 00:23:36,799 --> 00:23:42,519 going on. He was his own intelligence assessor. So there was no room 256 00:23:42,759 --> 00:23:51,440 for what's frequently called telling truth to power that didn't exist in Stalin's court, 257 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:56,720 and in fact, on the contrary, telling truth to power in Stalin's court 258 00:23:56,079 --> 00:24:03,960 could well end your life. Now, Stalin, we now know from Soviet 259 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:11,039 records, was chiefly responsible for arguably the greatest disaster in Soviet history, that 260 00:24:11,279 --> 00:24:15,599 is, the mishandling of intelligence before the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, 261 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:22,759 a disaster the changed world history. The Soviet intelligence services provided him with ample 262 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:29,519 warnings about the imminent Nazi invasion, and he dismissed them all. At the 263 00:24:29,559 --> 00:24:37,119 time, your listeners will remember that Stalin and Hitler were in a non aggression 264 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:44,640 pact, effectively allies carving up swathes of Europe. Stalin believed that Hitler would 265 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:49,240 portray him. They were in their non aggression pact. Well skipped forward and 266 00:24:49,519 --> 00:24:57,240 the spectacle that we saw of Putin in the National Security Council meeting on the 267 00:24:57,400 --> 00:25:06,880 eve of his is war in Ukraine. You will remember this bizarre prerecorded meeting 268 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:12,680 in which he, amongst other things, humiliated his head of Foreign intelligence, 269 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:18,519 the SVR, the man I just mentioned who was? It seemed pretty clear 270 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,880 going off script, and I think at one point somebody said no, no, 271 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,519 we haven't got to that bit yet, as evidence of the fact that 272 00:25:25,559 --> 00:25:30,079 it was all being choreographed. So this is, it seems to me, 273 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,000 the same underlying issue, which is an authoritarian I think now we can call 274 00:25:34,039 --> 00:25:41,440 Putin a reasonab we call Putin a dictator who uses his intelligence services in order 275 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,920 to provide information that they want to hear to confirm, not challenge their views. 276 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:52,799 And this is something inherent within that kind of model of government, if 277 00:25:52,799 --> 00:26:00,119 you like. And it's a good reason why people like Stalin and people like 278 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:07,200 Putin are making such bad decisions because the intelligence that they've provided with isn't challenging 279 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,240 their views. It can't. People are literally afraid of being killed. So 280 00:26:12,039 --> 00:26:18,599 it's the same underlying problem as I see it. That is really interesting, 281 00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:23,720 and it raises this question of you know, China, pre industrial China, 282 00:26:25,039 --> 00:26:30,119 you know, throughout much of the Cold War, China was you know, 283 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,960 not on the level of the United States and the Soviet Union, or at 284 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:37,440 least in the United States. And now China's this high tech, basically security 285 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:44,640 state and has sort of in some ways had the benefit of watching America learn 286 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,839 from its history with intelligence, from watching Russia either learn or not learn from 287 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:56,960 its experience with intelligence. And I wonder what you think, China, what 288 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:03,680 lessons do you think, if any China has internalized from this hundred years, 289 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:11,000 the century long history now that we see manifest in their current strategy. Well, 290 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,240 it's a it's a huge question. And I sort of really turned to 291 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,039 China at the end of the book because, as I point out, this 292 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:25,920 is a this is history that is unrolling right in front of us, in 293 00:27:26,279 --> 00:27:29,160 front of our eyes. So I can't kind of come to a conclusion. 294 00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,559 But this is if you like this sort of the cliffhanger of like, Okay, 295 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,799 if this is the history of Russia and intelligence of the West, wait 296 00:27:36,839 --> 00:27:44,839 to hear about China. China. It's the same underlying issues of as Russia 297 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:49,319 right now. Of course, Putin and She have declared on the eve of 298 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:55,960 the war in Ukraine that they are in an alliance with quote unquote no limits 299 00:27:56,079 --> 00:28:02,559 in which there are no areas that are Forbiden. They are this is at 300 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:11,119 an extraordinary alliance both with that both they both have the aim of overturning the 301 00:28:11,279 --> 00:28:15,720 US led international order established at the end of the Cold War. They're going 302 00:28:15,759 --> 00:28:21,359 about it in very different ways Russia as a kind of negative You know, 303 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:26,480 if the US is doing badly, then Russia's doing well, China projecting a 304 00:28:26,559 --> 00:28:33,160 positive alternative to the US world order. But the thing is, and this 305 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,440 is where I think that the analogy with the Cold War is so striking. 306 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:45,880 So when I was researching this later sections of the book, the archival records 307 00:28:47,599 --> 00:28:51,799 effectively dry up, and I had to rely on interviews, and I had 308 00:28:51,799 --> 00:28:56,640 some. It was fortunate enough to have some exclusive interviews with particularly former m 309 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:03,160 I six officers with deep experts on China and very recently as well, and 310 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:11,079 they told me a story that was pretty chilling, and it's the same as 311 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:18,960 what Russia did. After nine to eleven, the US government was overwhelmingly geared, 312 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:23,720 of course, to counter terrorism in the War on Terror. Its national 313 00:29:23,759 --> 00:29:37,359 security resources were plowed into encountering very serious Islamist terrorist plots. But in the 314 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,599 meantime, what was happening about the so called research and Great Powers. Well, 315 00:29:44,079 --> 00:29:49,519 US intelligence community was warning this hasn't gone away, but there simply wasn't 316 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:56,319 enough resources or on the agenda policymakers, this is something that will have to 317 00:29:56,319 --> 00:30:02,440 come later. We're dealing with very urgent threats here during the War on Terror. 318 00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:07,319 It's been one interview interview told me that in two thousand and five, 319 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:12,559 So this is, you know, really the height of the US counter terrorist 320 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:18,720 operations. In two thousand and five, the Chinese Ministry of State Security the 321 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:27,039 MSS, effectively declared war on US intelligence and from that point on marshaled all 322 00:30:27,039 --> 00:30:37,599 of their best resources and officers into defeating US intelligence in China with the aim 323 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:47,680 of supplanting the US from Southeast Asia. This was all taking place below the 324 00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:52,920 surface when the US was distracted consumed by the War on Terror. And it's 325 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,519 here I think that we find it such a striking parallel with the onset of 326 00:30:57,519 --> 00:31:03,319 the Cold War after nineteen four five. During the Second World War, US 327 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:11,799 intelligence, British intelligence overwhelmingly geared with defeating Nazi Germany, and so was Silin 328 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:18,759 himself. Of course, more Soviet citizens died than any other country. But 329 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,480 what was Stalin also doing during the Second World War? He was conducting a 330 00:31:22,599 --> 00:31:33,400 Clandestein cold Clandestein offense intelligence attack on his Western allies, written in the US, 331 00:31:33,599 --> 00:31:37,319 stealing all of their secrets, including the atomic bomb while they were looking 332 00:31:37,359 --> 00:31:44,039 away. So what this picture that emerges is the US government and all of 333 00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:48,119 its resources. It is very good at doing one thing at once, so 334 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:55,200 Second World War, defeating Hitler's third right, war on terror, counter terrorist 335 00:31:55,279 --> 00:31:59,960 operations. But the US is not so good at doing two things at once, 336 00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:05,480 thinking about the Soviet Union and taking preventative measures during the Second World War, 337 00:32:06,079 --> 00:32:12,400 or thinking about resurgent great powers during the War on Terror. And this 338 00:32:12,599 --> 00:32:19,720 strategy on the part of Chinese intelligence, it follows a Chinese saying, which 339 00:32:20,799 --> 00:32:25,960 I can share with your listeners. I will not attempt to do the Mandarin, 340 00:32:27,039 --> 00:32:31,400 but it can be roughly translated as watched the fires on the other side 341 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:37,200 of the bank burn, which allows you to avoid entering battle. So the 342 00:32:37,319 --> 00:32:45,359 US was consumed by the War on Terror, and internal Ministry of State Security 343 00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:52,680 MSS deliberations from the time were and this is a quote from an interviewee marked 344 00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:57,680 with glee to see the US mired in the counter terrorist operations in the Middle 345 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:02,160 East. Suddenly, when you look at it from this perspective of what China's 346 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:07,319 and Russia's intelligence services were doing, Suddenly, this period when we were talking 347 00:33:07,359 --> 00:33:15,359 about economic development would allow China to become a responsible player on the world stage, 348 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,359 it begins to look very different. It seems to me that when you 349 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:22,640 look through the intelligence and security lens, seems pretty clear that China had no 350 00:33:22,759 --> 00:33:30,200 intention of being a playing by the existing rules. It wanted to supplant them. 351 00:33:30,559 --> 00:33:37,759 And it's now that this is being revealed it again, it's it's an 352 00:33:37,759 --> 00:33:45,440 intelligence onslaught that it's already happened that we're now catching up with, just like 353 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:50,599 it was with the Soviets, as it now is with the Chinese. You 354 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,160 know, I saw a headline I swear was ripped out of the papers in 355 00:33:53,200 --> 00:34:02,480 like nineteen sixty two this week, which was about the alleged Russian or Chinese 356 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:08,480 see really could be from nineteen sixty Yeah, Chinese spy, Yes, the 357 00:34:08,599 --> 00:34:14,880 Chinese spying operation UM in Cuba, chiese in painting. Just this week UM 358 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,840 met with leaders in under US where it's, oh my gosh, I mean, 359 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,840 it just feels like the fifties in the sixties, which had just severed 360 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:30,840 relationships with Taiwan, UM and we're getting right back into you know, history 361 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:37,920 and patterns that are just so incredibly familiar. You've written about the extent the 362 00:34:38,039 --> 00:34:44,039 scope that would likely surprise even people who are generally aware of what China has 363 00:34:44,079 --> 00:34:47,840 been up to of their intelligence operation. Um, you know, through the 364 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:54,880 lens of their alleged basing Cuba, they outreach via bout the road. What 365 00:34:55,000 --> 00:35:00,000 should people know about the scope of China's intelligence operation right now? Well, 366 00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:07,559 my overall conclusion is the looking at this and I should say that as I've 367 00:35:07,599 --> 00:35:13,719 already indicator, but I think it's worth just emphasizing that this has been there 368 00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:17,800 aren't There's a similar to the level of records that you can study with China 369 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:23,360 today. And the key thing is that we also don't have defectors that are 370 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:28,800 known in any way. And hopefully there are defectors from the Chinese intelligence if 371 00:35:30,039 --> 00:35:35,360 if the US intelligence community is doing his job, hopefully there are defectors who 372 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,800 have revealed the secrets of Chinese intelligence. But at least in the public domain, 373 00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:45,239 we don't have similar defectors as we did in the Soviet period or indeed 374 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:50,880 or Russia today. So this is necessarily more tentative. But the way that 375 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,960 it has been described to me and it seems fair looking at all the information 376 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,840 in the public domain that's available. Chinese intelligence is like the KG beyond st 377 00:36:00,079 --> 00:36:04,519 roids, This is taken to a whole new level. And Chinese intelligence also 378 00:36:04,559 --> 00:36:08,400 has a very different services have a very different conception of intelligence that even the 379 00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:15,760 Soviets or the Russian said. This is not simply an effort to target particular 380 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:22,079 individuals and to recruit people in that way. This is the Chinese intelligence services 381 00:36:22,079 --> 00:36:29,639 employ what's called a thousand grains of sound approach, hoovering up collecting intelligence across 382 00:36:29,679 --> 00:36:32,719 domains in multiple different ways, in the cyber realm, in the in the 383 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:40,000 in the physical realm, all all with the objective, at least in the 384 00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:46,320 earlier, earlier part of this century, of stealing as much scientific technical intelligence 385 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:52,719 from the US as possible in order to challenge the US and its position in 386 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:59,039 the world. On the Cuba piece, I've got an article coming out, 387 00:36:59,119 --> 00:37:02,079 i think later this week on this that brings some of his some perspective to 388 00:37:02,159 --> 00:37:08,880 it. It's you know, Mark Twain said that history doesn't repeat yourself, 389 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:13,159 but it does rhyme. Well, the rhymes here, as you've just suggested, 390 00:37:13,199 --> 00:37:15,840 Emily, they're pretty striking looking to Cuba. Of all places, we've 391 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:22,159 been here before, so Cuba being the key strategic stronghold for the Soviet Union 392 00:37:22,159 --> 00:37:28,119 in the Cold War, as the listeners, I'm sure no. But less 393 00:37:28,159 --> 00:37:32,039 well known is that after the Cuban missile crisis, with a sort of a 394 00:37:32,079 --> 00:37:37,719 great standoff between East and West in the Cold War. Less well known is 395 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:45,639 that right after that, Soviet intelligence established an enormous eavesdropping facility in Cuba, 396 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:52,440 signals intelligence collection facility in Cuba, and this was the biggest sigin to signals 397 00:37:52,440 --> 00:38:00,679 intelligence base in the world during the Cold War, and it's area or farms 398 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:07,960 and antenna were all directed towards the US. Very little has been revealed about 399 00:38:07,679 --> 00:38:14,199 what the product its product was during the Cold War, but we do know 400 00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:21,800 what the KGB was able to achieve through similar intercept stations from within the US 401 00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:27,079 itself, from from Soviet embassies in New York, Washington, and San Francisco, 402 00:38:27,639 --> 00:38:30,360 and at key points. For example, the Soviet the KGBS, by 403 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:37,719 simply putting aerial masks on their embassy in Washington, was able to intercept short 404 00:38:37,559 --> 00:38:45,440 short wave radio communications that at one point they managed to get hold of the 405 00:38:45,559 --> 00:38:52,480 messages of the US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger that were being relayed from the 406 00:38:52,480 --> 00:39:01,119 White House via Andrew's Air Force space to the Air Force one the plane that 407 00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:07,000 was carrying the Secretary of States and National Security Advisor Henry kiss over to Europe. 408 00:39:07,559 --> 00:39:13,320 These were short wave burst communications that the KGB intercepted, and they were 409 00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:19,079 able to eavesdrop on Kissinger's most intimate conversations, including, as I write in 410 00:39:19,079 --> 00:39:25,760 the piece, those of his conversations with his fiance. So this is an 411 00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:31,239 example of the kind of thing that we know the Soviet intelligence was able to 412 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:37,880 do through aerials picking up short waves. We can only imagine what they were 413 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:45,559 able to achieve from the enormous base in Cuba directed at major US military bases 414 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:51,639 in southern Florida. The same, it seems to me, would apply today, 415 00:39:52,440 --> 00:40:00,880 but even more so in terms of China's cyber capabilities from Cuba. But 416 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,880 I would like to just you know, I think looking at the history, 417 00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,960 it is necessary to I think pump the breaks about some of the heated discourse 418 00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:13,840 of this, which is to say, we've been here before, we've done 419 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:20,760 this, we know what it involves. And I'm entirely convinced that the technical 420 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:27,679 wizards and people at NSA know all about the Chinese facility there, and we 421 00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:32,360 would hope are taking countermeasures so from interviews I've had with people over that since 422 00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:37,559 that story is broken, is very much the feeling that this is something that 423 00:40:37,599 --> 00:40:42,760 has been known about within the intelligence community beforehand, we in the public didn't 424 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:49,880 know about this, So historical perspective can help. Also, let's just say, 425 00:40:50,960 --> 00:41:02,480 deescalate some of the sort of natural, but I think overblown fears of 426 00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:07,840 what this space would achieve. But the parallels. The broader point that I 427 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:13,440 really would like to just emphasize to your listeners is that the broader point is 428 00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:21,920 this is just another example, a piece in the puzzle of how China Undershe 429 00:41:22,159 --> 00:41:25,719 is looking from his perspective, and it's always useful to, I think really 430 00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:32,199 important to try to empathize with how it looks from an opponent's perspective. What 431 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:39,039 he sees himself doing is containing US influence on the on the world stage. 432 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:45,880 So he says, you know, if the US can set up eavesdropping installations 433 00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:52,800 and send spy flights right next to China in the South China Sea, then 434 00:41:52,880 --> 00:42:00,199 why can't we, as the world's you know, effects of new superpower do 435 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:04,480 the same in America's bankyard, Which is just the same rational that chreas chef 436 00:42:04,559 --> 00:42:09,559 head during the Cold War, before the Cuban missile crisis. So there we 437 00:42:09,559 --> 00:42:15,960 are. We've been here before we and what's old is new again, as 438 00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:22,599 let's said at the outset. Well, actually that's a good place to wrap 439 00:42:22,639 --> 00:42:28,079 up on my final question for you. I'm so fascinated to know how you 440 00:42:28,559 --> 00:42:34,159 read modern media reports and historical media reports as well differently. I mean that's 441 00:42:34,159 --> 00:42:39,480 one of the I have to imagine first of all, like exhilarating and intriguing 442 00:42:39,679 --> 00:42:44,440 parts of this, but also just um, you know, in some ways 443 00:42:44,559 --> 00:42:49,000 maddening parts of all of this to try to disentangle you know, for instance, 444 00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:52,400 the Wall Street Journal report we started talking about, where it seems clearly 445 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,599 that the CIA was talking to the journal or people affiliated with the CIA, 446 00:42:55,679 --> 00:42:59,360 and then you have to compare that to what you know, maybe Seymour Hirsh 447 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:04,440 reported and what it is just like incredible. Um. But to your point 448 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:12,320 about the Cuba operation, Um, it does seem like what's been conveyed intentionally 449 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,000 by CIA in the media is that you know, we're NSA. Is that 450 00:43:16,039 --> 00:43:20,360 there's a sense of calm, that you know, this is under control, 451 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:24,519 we are aware of this, um. And I just wonder you know how 452 00:43:24,599 --> 00:43:31,599 you approach um your media, given your the breadth of knowledge that you have 453 00:43:31,639 --> 00:43:37,400 about how media is often used for good and bad by folks in the intelligence 454 00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:45,760 community. Well, I think that my overwhelming sense is to approach whatever issue, 455 00:43:45,039 --> 00:43:49,280 you know, whatever scandal arises, and there does seem to be a 456 00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:57,239 scandal pretty much every day in terms of spying and espionage. But it's an 457 00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:05,920 overwhelming sense of modesty and humility because what we're seeing play out in real time 458 00:44:06,559 --> 00:44:13,800 right now is guarantee the tip of a much larger iceberg, and that it's 459 00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:17,199 when you look at it historically, you can see what was taking place in 460 00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:23,519 the public domain about a particular spy scandal, some of the impamous spy scandals 461 00:44:23,559 --> 00:44:28,360 in the early Cold War, the Cambridge five. You know what was known 462 00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:34,039 at the time about these traitors, and then what was going on what was 463 00:44:34,079 --> 00:44:37,159 known in the public domain at that particular time, and then you look at 464 00:44:37,159 --> 00:44:43,800 the dossiers and you understand what was going on below the surface that is only 465 00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:51,119 made light of day recently with the classification. So my feeling is perhaps I'm 466 00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:57,599 inherently a skeptic and a cynic and a My family would probably say, yes, 467 00:44:57,679 --> 00:45:07,119 a bit jaded, but I I'm very cautious about this rolling the rolling 468 00:45:07,199 --> 00:45:15,360 news and to say, and I would politely suggest to your listeners that we 469 00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:21,119 can say with confidence and guarantee that what we're seeing play out right now is 470 00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:25,480 only the tip of a much larger iceberg, and that it's only in due 471 00:45:25,519 --> 00:45:30,880 course that will know what's going on, and it will be a fascinating, 472 00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:35,800 perhaps even an impossible job for future scholars to try to weave all the pieces 473 00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,079 together for what we're seeing play out in real time. Everything does seem to 474 00:45:40,119 --> 00:45:43,639 be getting quicker right now. That's certainly the case. I don't know if 475 00:45:43,679 --> 00:45:47,280 it's just social media, but I don't know. You look at some of 476 00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:52,400 the records from the Cold War and it's almost you know, I never want 477 00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,840 to say this about the Soviet Union, but it was also simple then and 478 00:45:57,199 --> 00:46:01,800 now it's just things are moving so quickly and there's so many scandals that it's 479 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:07,079 hard to keep up, which is why I think I'll leave it. I'll 480 00:46:07,159 --> 00:46:15,599 leave one I think striking passage I read from a Soviet defector KGB defector, 481 00:46:15,679 --> 00:46:22,280 and he he specialized in disinformation KGB disinformation, which you've already talked about, 482 00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:32,480 you know, specializing in exploiting existing grievances within US society, and he testified 483 00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:37,599 in Congress in the seventies about the nature of Soviet active measures. And again 484 00:46:37,639 --> 00:46:45,280 you reread that old testimony that basically had been forgotten about in light of events, 485 00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,199 goes to our own time, and it's just striking the same strategy, 486 00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:57,400 different tools. Anyway, one of the members of Congress quite rightly, so, 487 00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,360 okay, well, this is what the Soviet strategy as, what can 488 00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:08,440 we do about it? What is the best way to protect Americans from this 489 00:47:08,519 --> 00:47:15,280 sort of insiduous the strategy on the part of the intelligence services. And so 490 00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:21,000 it's quite simple. You need to read widely. So Americans should not trust 491 00:47:21,039 --> 00:47:28,000 their news from any one source. They should read multiple different news from multiple 492 00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:34,639 different outlets, and to think about things critically. And it's like it couldn't 493 00:47:34,679 --> 00:47:40,000 be more important message today of think about things critically, think about especially online, 494 00:47:40,599 --> 00:47:46,000 who's putting that information out and what agenda might they have for putting it 495 00:47:46,079 --> 00:47:52,039 out. That was what from the horse's mouth former KGB officers said about the 496 00:47:52,079 --> 00:47:57,800 Soviets, And it seems to me the same as true with Russia. And 497 00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:02,159 China today called their wall is an historian at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and 498 00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:07,280 the author of the new book Spies, The epic intelligence War between East and 499 00:48:07,639 --> 00:48:12,639 West. Calder thank you so much for joining the show. Thank you for 500 00:48:12,679 --> 00:48:16,039 having me. I really enjoyed it. Absolutely you've been listening to another edition 501 00:48:16,079 --> 00:48:20,639 of The Federalist Radio Hour. I'm Emil Jasinski, culture editor here at The 502 00:48:20,639 --> 00:48:23,000 Federalist. Will be back soon with more. Until then, be lovers of 503 00:48:23,039 --> 00:48:25,119 freedom and anxious for the friend