I know that's not you, Peter Brown, but he would ask not what
your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.
Mister gorbuschaw tear down this wall. It's the Ricochet Podcast with Rob Long
and Peter Robinson. I'm James Lylyx. The day we talked to Henry Olson,
who knows what about elections everything. So let za Rose's a podcast.
It's non liquid. That's my day. You have more non liquid golds.
They said, what is that? I said corn? They said, we
love that idea. You know, that's a pretty cool thought, isn't it.
That's a nickname in its own way. But we came up with a
new word for a new couple of words for Corn. All these Republican candidates
in the primary trying to beat down Trump, I'm still then my person ever
beat down Trump. I'm not looking forward to it again. Good of this
country. Welcome everybody. It's the Ricochet Podcast, number six hundred and seventy
five. I'm James Lylyx. Here in Minneapolis where it's it's zero. Oh,
we've climbed a degree, nice round zero. We have no degrees at
all, We have no whatsoever. And Peter and sunny Clement California, rob
long and busy, exciting Gotham where I was reading today about real estate prices.
Yikes. We'll get to that perhaps in a second. Gentlemen, welcome,
How was your day going? It is not actually sunny and Clement.
It is Clement by comparison with zero. Let's see, what's the temperature here?
Is now fifty one degrees. That's Clement, I suppose, by comparison
with Minneapolis, but later today and lasting until Sunday or mon on Monday.
This new thing. I never even heard the term until last year. As
I recall, an atmospheric river is about to swirl its way over northern Calornia.
This is what they used to call a rainstorm, I believe. And
my wife heard the words atmospheric river, still new to her as well,
and said, you you pointing to me up on the roof. Now,
I had to clear out the gutters because here in California they don't get used
that often, and all kinds of detritus piles up. So whatever Donald Trump
may have done in Iowa, I feel as though my accomplishment yesterday is even
greater. I got up the roof and cleared the gutters. My wife's line
was, if you fall and break your back, I'll come out there and
finish you off myself. And I did not fall. I cleared the gutters.
I'm ready for the atmospheric river whatever that turns out to bespheric. So
there, you're not the only one who talks about who can talk, who
has a reason to talk about the weather. James in Minneapolis, well,
I'm glad to hear that you're getting this atmospheric whether dump. That's great.
You need the rain. Everybody always needs the rain. Farmers need the rain.
Rob. We're not gonna talk about the weather in California in New York
because you're all in snowing. It's snowing really going right now. I'm looking
at the stone. Is it really yes? I mean it's not sticking so
much. I mean it's dusting the trees. May I open a little opportunit
unity for you to wax poetic, Rob, We just have to admit that
New York Manhattan in the snow, not two days after the snow when it
all turns to slush, but in the snow Manhattan is it's pretty good magic.
And I think, I mean it's not heavy enough I don't think yet.
I mean, it's supposed to snow for the rest of the day,
and I love it. Everybody hates it. I love it. But there's
that moment in New York. It sometimes happens at night if it snows all
day, and then people just you know, they give they give up,
basically stay in and then there's this moment when you see people out walking around
and the city is dead quiet because there's everything, and everybody' kind of look
at everybody else like, Wow, this is this really happened, This is
really happening, And uh, there's something great about it, something great about
this the city that's not you know that's supposed to like shrug everything off and
just keep going. Just suddenly everybody stops and says, wait a minute,
snow and I'm not gonna Yeah, but I mentioned real estate. This morning,
I saw a story that Blackstock, Blackstone or black Rock or black you
know, one of those guys spent six hundred million dollars in the seven forty
Broadway and now they're trying to dump it off for one hundred and twenty five
million or something like that. Sunk a lot of money into it, renovated
at nineteen fifty point. It's got seven percent occupancy right like a mil Yes,
like a lot of these buildings in New York that were built in post
war they either need to be upgrad they have where there just isn't the demand.
The only reason I mentioned it is because seven forty is actually even though
it looks like a rather banal, standard issue skyscraper, it worked its way
into popular culture because it used to be the headquarters for the Mutual of New
York and rob of course you know what the what their name was, right,
Utual of New York. Yeah, good money money of course right that
There was a big sign at the top of the building that had the name
of the company m N Y and for if you're going to be a bank,
you know, money is pretty good for good you know, it's pretty
close. So one day there was a songwriter who was trying to come up
with a nonsense phrase along the lines of hang on loopy or something like that,
and he couldn't come up with it. Looked out the window and he
saw that sign and named it put it in a song money Money by Tommy
James and the shon Dell's Money Money, which later comes Are you kidding,
really, you have listen, I was I never knew what money stood for.
Nobody does, but that I have to wait until this late date in
my life, Count James Lilacs to find out that that that that that sign
that I saw as a kid growing up stood for Mutual of New York.
It's actually interesting the old you know, it's the same in New York and
Manhattan as it is sort of around the country. That the big, heavy
corner buildings in small towns, a lot of them were some of the greatest
ones were designed by Louis Sullivan in the Midwest are all banks. Yeah,
and you know, you want to like project And there was a time when
the New York Life Building, which is the clock tower now John Madison Square,
it was important for them. I think they have to play dozens of
people just to make sure that the clock was always exactly right, because the
idea was that, you know, you've got to trust your life insurance company,
right, you mean they have, yeah, but clock doesn't work.
Go ahead, you mean the met Life building, don't you No, No,
the met Life Building. Go downtown, farther downtotown on Madison Square is
the New York New York Life. It's the New York Life. They built
this giant kind of uh collection of buildings have a giant clock tow at the
top with the gold triangular. It's not a but it's a cap sort of
you'll know you know it, James, You know, I read a Madison
square, and it's got to be accurate all the time, right, because
like you're giving them their money, and you got to hope that you're they're
they're taking care of it so that they'll pay out when you're dead to your
you know, your your descendants, your beneficiaries, so they they they the
accuracy is very important. And of course the minute that stopped at shrug is
that it's fine. The clock is now always wrong and nobody cares. But
it's sort of a sort of a sad sign of like, you know,
the neatened up, corporate uptight culture that you used to demand of your insurance
company. Mm hmm, was that the day the music dies? By the
way, could we schedule an entire podcast a special edition? Because I know
that James, who knows all mysteries concerning popular culture and will be able to
take us through Miss American Pie. Don't give us everything that it means,
because right, Rob has just given us the real day the music died.
But the music died the day the New York Watch a minute there. What
difference does it make. It's the Metropolitan Life. It's not the New York
Life building. I'm convinced to this. I'm absolutely good, are you.
It's not the one with a gold top. That's what I'm picturing. The
New York Life has the gold top. The MetLife building is the one by
Napoleon run that is it's got it has a huge clock on it nineteen ten,
nineteen something or other, and it's got next to it a nineteen thirties
edition that was supposed to be this incredibly tall building in New York. It's
gorgeous, amazing, sixty story building. It's where it's where Griffin Dunn was
dumped off at the end of after hours. It's where he worked. I'm
convinced of it. We're gonna have to go maybe, I mean, right
now, the met Life building is the old PanAm building, right right,
But that's but it's not right. It was PanAm and then it was MetLife,
and then it was it's something else. Now it's got some New York
Life has a kind of conical golden tower, right, and it's on Madison
Square. But I don't associate a clock with that. No, Metropolitan Life
has the big clock. That's the one. Look, who's the real New
Yorker here? How can I conjure this up on a compleet. I just
googled it because I want to make sure the New York Life building stands sixte
me tall. It's on you know, the bottom of Madison Avenue. It
has a gold top, and it is a clock tower next to it.
It does have a clock tower. I think maybe it's not that building,
but it's it's the clock tower. Well, look up Metropolitan Life Tower,
one Madison Avenue. I just looked it up here and that you tell me
if that's what you're thinking about one Madison. We can defer this to our
listeners they for show in the comments section. People will clear us up and
correct us anyway. News of the World. But excuse me, excuse me,
James, you're right, Oh okay, good. I didn't want to
lose So wait a minute, which building is If we're clearing up now,
it's cleared up, because it's not cleared up until Robinson understands. Which where's
the clock you're talking about? The clock is on the MetLife Insurance Company tower,
which is not there anymore. Which is the old building. No,
No, that forget that part. That's that's the that's a different thing now.
That is that is the MetLife tower. That is the met Life building
now. But the old days, Wow, that's what it is on Madison
Square, just up the street on twenty sixth Street is Yes, is the
old met Life Life is the New York Life building. But it's still think
the accurate, the the inaccurate by detailed. Point I was making was that
a life insurance company felt the need to have right, absolutely accurate clock because
they wanted to you know, project button duckness. And now they're like,
yeah, we don't care. No, I would rather lose that greater,
more important philosophical point in pursuit of a narrow, anal retentive correction on the
name of the building. Rob your you know what I mean it actually,
but you'd also also rather have your insurance company make sure that their clocks are
right all the time. Yes, you would? You would? You do
one thing is how you do everything? As they say, and everybody knew
that building too, because he was on the back of these pamphlets, and
they printed these pamphlets by the billions, and they were all about infections,
how to stop them at home, vitamins, the importance of sunshine moving your
bowels, and they would have and these things would be passed by the agent,
and they would all end up in the antique stores and in the places
and drawers all across America. But everybody knew that building, so yes,
it was important. It was a producer. Perry just sends a note saying
that the man who knows more about American politics than James knows about the history
of New York architecture, and that's saying something is here. Well, then
then I should shut up and we should get to him. Here we go,
Henry. We welcome to podcast. Andry Olsen Senior Fellow of the Ethics
and Public Policy Center. He's the author of Working Class Republican and the co
author of The Four Faces of the Republican Party, and he's the host of
Beyond the Polls, the Ricochet Audio Networks election podcast. Henry Welcome. Hello,
Hey, Henry. Go on, Peter, Could I start with the
two propositions for you Henry, I'm very seldom am prepared for anything in my
life, but I so revere you and your encyclopedic knowledge of American politics that
I thought this through. And I have two propositions, and if you agree
with both of them, then all of us can stop talking right now and
go get a beer and a cigarette and start our weekends. Proposition number one,
it's over. Donald Trump has the Republican nomination. Proposition number two,
even when that man was at his most popular, when he was president,
when the economy was growing before COVID struck, he never broke fifty percent.
His ceiling nationally is forty six forty seven percent. So the second proposition is
indictments, Our convictions are going to start coming down. His ceiling is going
to drop to forty one forty two. He will lose the presidency. Both
of those things are true, and we know them already. Henry, Okay,
Proposition one ninety five percent true. I think it is okay. There's
a five percent chance that Nikki Haley can come through. Ron DeSantis is basically
a dead man walking. He'll it should be out before South Carolina unless he
wants to go heavily into debt which I doubt he wants to. Yeah,
Nicky Haley's chance basically depends on an unprecedented mobilization of non Republican voters. And
the argument for that is, look what happened in Georgia in twenty twenty two.
All the polls said that Brian Kemp, who Donald Trump was trying to
take out, would win by twenty to thirty points. He won by fifty
two. All the polls that Brad Raffensburger would be forceding to a runoff.
He won over a majority. Why because turnout had traditionally been in the low
six hundred thousands, and turnout was one point two million. Wow. The
Poles missed half of the electorate. So if Nicky Haley can excite people,
or Donald trump repulsion can incite people, there are enough states where there's no
partisan registration or where independents can vote, like in New Hampshire, that one
can imagine the polls being off. But that's a very slum chance. I
can't say it's zero, but it's a very slum chance. Nikki Haley's campaign
and Rond De Santis's campaign, candidates themselves can become strangely delusional from moment to
moment in my experience. But they're professionals attached to both campaigns. They know
the percentages you just stated. What's going on? Ron De Santis is trying
to run out the clock in an honorable fashion to position himself for twenty twenty
eight. Nikki Haley is running for vice president. What's actually going on?
Do you suppose to the professionals in both campaigns? So it's unclear how many
professionals are still involved with the Ronde de Santis campaign after the great purge of
Jeff Route. But I do think that what's happening is Desanti's finished second,
and it would be very hard for somebody who finished second to say, actually,
the candidate who finished third has a better shot than I do. But
I think what's going to happen is after he's going to get f five percent
or less in New Hampshire, then he's going to go to the Nevada caucuses.
And again it's a caucus, it's not a primary. Nicki Haley is
not on the ballot because Nevada has Nevada's Democrats wanted to have a primary,
the Republicans want to have a caucus, and so there's going to be a
primary on Tuesday that won't award any delegates. And Nicky Haley's on the ballot
there, but the Republicans said, you can't be on both, and she
chose to file for the primary, not the caucus. DeSantis and Trump chose
to go for the delegates. So it's going to be a one on one.
DeSantis has his one on one with Trump. The moment has arrived,
and so what is Rond? But this is talent. This happens on February
eighth. Where is Ronde Santas spending his time the primary in South Carolina on
February twenty four He's not actually campaigning in the race that can give him momentum.
So what happens if he loses by forty five points in Hampshire and then
he loses in Nevada by forty points, You think he's going to have any
money to go on in South Carolina on February twenty fourth. Do you think
he's going to be having any bull standing? I think the Santas will drop
out between Nevada and South Carolina. And if Santas were serious, if I
were a professional advising to Santas, I'd say camp out in Las Vegas and
attack Donald Trump. That's your chance. It's slim, but at least it's
logical. What he's doing right now is, as you said, an honorable
way to get out of the race. And I wind it down. You
know, Haley, I think has always been actually running for twenty twenty eight.
Is she running to be Trump's vice president? I really have a hard
time seeing Trump selecting her for a host of reasons. I'm told it's not
zero that there's elements of her that kind of you know, he kind of
likes feisteeing this so well. She doesn't address the problem with proposition too.
She doesn't bring back in suburban women who would tend to vote or who would
at least be open to a Republican candidate if there were a normal Republican candidate,
but who look at Donald Trump and say no, Haley doesn't soften his
edges. Hal Well, the question isn't whether Haley would be a good choice
of for him. The question is whether Haley is the person he'll pick.
You know that, you know I was making I never wrote this, but
I was making an argument in private or semi private. In January of twenty
nineteen that Trump should dump Pence and put Haley on the ticket, because I
said, what's your problem? Or January twenty twenty, I said, what's
your What's Trump's problem? Trump's problems he pursuved as a racist and a sexist.
How does he solve the problem? He puts Nickcky Haley on the ticket.
That got back to the Pence people, and they basically sent word that
it would be nice that I not talk about that, which didn't you know,
I continue to talk about it because I thought it was true. My
point is that that was when he should have done it. Now post January
sixth, the argument for Haley is exactly what you said. The argument against
Haley is, can you imagine Donald Trump ever being in a circumstance where the
vice president, when the foot, when the back is against the wall,
would tell the president no. I also, I can't imagine Donald Trump wanting
that, And I don't see how he would look at Nicky Haley and say
that Nicky Haley would say yes, sir, how high. So that's why
I don't think Haley's going to be on the ticket. But as for proposition
too, I don't agree with that. That's you don't. No, I
do not. And the reason why is this is not a vote on Donald
Trump. This is a vote between two people who don't have majority support.
If this were a referendum on Donald Trump, donald Trump would lose by fifteen
to twenty points. If this were a referendum on Joe Biden, he would
lose by fifteen to twenty points. The problem is they'll be facing each other,
and this is the what happens when the irresistible force meets the immovable object
of loathed politicians, Well, hilarity ensues. This is twenty sixteen all over
again. And what we know about twenty sixteen is that the erase was decided
by the eighteen percent of people who didn't like either candidate that they broke late
and they went back to the party that they preferred otherwise. So what we
know is that somewhere around twenty percent of Americans don't like Biden and Trump,
and these are the people who are telling only twenty percent don't like both of
them. That's the thing is that forty percent of Americans approve of Joe Biden.
Forty two percent of Americans like Donald Trump. So you've got this overlap
where the overlap who I don't like Biden and I don't like Trump is actually
pretty low. Got seventy five to eighty percent of the people, depending on
the polls, like one of them, and you tend not to have people.
In twenty sixteen, there were two percent of the people liked Hillary Clinton
and Donald Trump. And I always jokeding, you know, I'd like to
meet who these people are. I know, so I know living examples of
virtually every sub demographic and American politics. I have never met one of those
two percent. It was Richard Epstein, who right, it is probably one
percent who approve of Biden and like Trump were two percent. You know,
there are five or six percent of Republicans who approved of Biden's job. So
you know that's where you get twenty twenty two percent who overlap don't like both
of them. And these are the people who are saying, when they're given
a chance, oh, I'll vote for Cornell West, I'll vote for Robbie
Kennedy, I'll vote for Jill Stein. And what happens is we know from
just like in twenty sixteen, Gary Johnson at one point was a ten or
eleven percent of the polls Jill Stein was at like three percent of the polls.
The closer you get to election day, the more of these people,
just like with John Anderson in nineteen eighty who at one point is a twenty
percent of the polls. That was a I don't like Carter and I'm scared
of Raaga. The closer you get to election day, people say, got
to pick between them? To pick between them? I got a pick between
them. Well, with Ronald Reagan, we know that it was the last
debate six or seven days before the election. The people who were undecided said,
Okay, I'm going to go for Reagan. What we know is that
it was literally the last weekend. And this is where I know this demographic
very well, because I literally know people who fall into all these categories.
Did they decide on Saturday? Oh my god, I can't throw my vote
away. I've got to stop Hillary Clinton. Yes, did they decide in
the car on the way to the polling place? Did they decide in the
polling booth? I can't do. Gary Johnson, Yes, I know all
of these people. This was going to happen again. And that's why I
can't agree with you, is that the other thing is I'm not convinced trumb
will be convicted that. You know, Let's imagine a world where the first
case that comes up is the case in the Southern District of Florida. The
jury pool, if you simply drew with the Southern District of Florida, is
the is the documents cases. Okay, forget. Here's the thing is this
is Trump. Forget the evidence. Okay, unless you're going you know,
my argument is that if you want to actually treat this as your judicial function
or what you should do is say, this is the most unusual case in
history, and what we have to do to avoid a tainted bias either for
or against Trump, to say, if you voted in the presidential election,
you cannot be on the journey because what we know is that if you voted
in the presidential election, you have extremely wrong feelings one way or another.
They're not going to do that, you know. I think they should take,
like I said, take anyone who voted in the presidential election out of
the jury. Maybe you'll get a fair trial. Given that you won't.
All you need is one one Trump loyalist to say no way, no how
political witch hunt. He or she keeps quiet enough to get through and you
get a miss trial if it's a mistrial rather than a conviction. Do you
think that helps Trump? Kh So, Jack Smith, It's one thing to
get indictments out of a grand jury seated in Washington, d C. It
is an entirely different matter to get twelve jurors to agree to convict in Florida.
And this is why he wants the DC case to go first, because
what's the jury pool in DC? It's nineteen to one from Biden, right,
This is why Jacksonmith wants. That's why Jacksonith Harry Harry, Harry.
We gotta go, We gotta go, we gotta go. Okay, So,
Henry, I have I have. I'm just gonna lob two more questions
and you can ignore them, honestly, because I'm getting such dirty looks from
Rob and James because they oh, no, all right, they they love
you as much as I do, and I know they want they have questions.
But I have two more questions, all right, and each one of
them is going to involve a very I'll try to keep it extremely brief.
Story Story number one is Donald Trump's victory speech after Iowa, I have to
confess I had no intention of watching all of this, but I sat there
and watched it. Kind of entrance because Donald Trump he spoke for about twenty
minutes. He spent the first ten minutes thanking individuals by name, and the
final ten minutes talking about bringing the country together, congratulating Ron De Santis and
Nikki Haley on good campaign. And I thought, oh, my lord,
he's become a rational and working politician. This is what you do if you
want to win. You thank people by name, you make them feel wonderful,
you give them their glowing moment in the spotlight, and then you swivel,
swivel and talk about your big It was as if he's decided he wishes
to become president of the United States. Not an act of vengeance in the
campaign, but a campaign to win and enact an agenda. I could be
totally mistaken, but I thought to myself, if this meant, if this
Trump is the Trump we see between now and November, this forty seven percent
ceiling is a relic of the past. He could break fifty percent. Item
one, Item two. A young friend of mine invited me to a fundraiser
for Robert Kennedy Junior. I went somewhat with gritted teeth, and well,
I'll just go to observe. He's very impressive, Henry. He worked the
entire It wasn't a big room. It was perhaps sixty people. He spoke
to every person. He posed for photographs. He spoke for about ten minutes,
then spent ninety minutes on his feet, taking one question after another.
You had the feeling that he wasn't doing any spin, that the answers were
fresh. He spoke, he didn't force them into the conversation, but he
spoke from time to time. My father did this, when my uncle did
that, and even I, who believe me, I'm no Kennedy man,
began to feel the mystic chords of memory and he's he was uncategorizable. He
talked about housing projects for the poor, and then he talked about inventing some
kind of new tea bill which is tied to a basket of precious metals.
So we have a vast new social program and we have a gold bug.
I mean, he was just uncategorizable left to right, and I thought to
myself, oh my goodness. The net effect is this is an honest man,
and he feels both fresh and deeply embedded in American history. This guy
could take off, especially with younger voters. Okay, trumpet Kennedy. I
will now not say another word. Yeah. So with respect to Trump,
he has shown this these flashes before. What always happens is that he'll give
a great speech, you know, like in the Warsaw speech or his acceptance
Beach or his victory speech in twenty sixteen was conciliatory and nice, and then
within forty eight hours he reverts to type. So, of course, what's
he doing in New Hampshire. He's bashing Nikki Haley, saying he's a rhino
and a globalist and all of that stuff. I agree with you. If
Donald Trump could run a grown up campaign, Donald Trump would have won reelection
and he could win election more easily. Again, the question is can he
sustain this? And you know, we shall see. I suppose I know
the second question. I think America in theory would like a part libreal,
part conservative fresh voice. I think that's part of what Trump's appeal originally was.
He's now become a captive of his grievances and the conservative base, but
that's not what he was originally. The question is can Bobby Kennedy Junior do
that right now, All I can say is, right now, he's drawing
from people who dislike both candidates. What he has to start doing is becoming
the preferred candidate of people who like one or both of those candidates. Will
say, I like Trump, but I prefer Bobby. I like Biden,
but I prefer Bobby. Now, if I start to see that, then
I'll think that maybe he can win. And it may very well be that
your experience is indicative of that, that he'll be able to raise enough money
to get on the ballots. I suspect he will, that he'll be able
to be savvy enough to get some media attention. You know, the media
will want to make this a two person race. Both conservative media and the
mainstream media will want to do it. But local media will cover him.
And that's something. So we'll see. I'm not hearing a lot of Dean
Phillips excitement, and so I'm wondering if you're just waiting to spring this spoiler
in us, because this is what you really think is going to happen.
It has bil I can and support. Now, yes he does. As
a matter of fact, is our paper reported he dropped the DEI part of
his platform and replaced with some other words that didn't say the same thing.
After acting through a million but he had he had an event in which nobody
came. Nobody came. He just sort of sat there on the bit of
a truck and dealt with the reporters and nobody else. So he's dead in
the water, do you think, yeah, yeah, the thing is Dean
Phillips. What Dean Phillips is is the person you vote for when you don't
think when you're a Democrat and you don't think Biden should run again. So
for me, the thing that I'm looking for is not what does Dean Phillips
gip? Question is what does Joe Biden get as a writing candidate. What
we know is that he in no matter where you pull, he's not pulling
much above seventy percent. Now, when Obama ran unopposed in a serious way,
he was getting eighty eight ninety percent. He goud dip below that some
areas that were you know, blue collar southern places like West Virginia or Oklahoma
that were quickly you know, the people who registered Democrats were quickly leaving the
party. But other than that, he got eighty five eighty eight ninety two
percent. You know, Trump got ninety percent plus, George W. Bush
got ninety percent plus. If Joe Biden doesn't break sixty seven percent against Phillips,
Marian Williamson and the host of Nobody's who paid two hundred dollars to have
their name listed on the New Hampshire ballot, which you can do, so
they'll be like a list of Nobody's. Maybe Vermin Supreme, the guy with
the right. Hey, wait, is it too late? It's only two
hundred bucks. It's like nothing to get on the New Hampshire ballot. I
want to write and rob let's get him on the Sorry, Henry, go
ahead. Have you ever have you ever met Vermin Supreme? By the way,
no, my fiance, Yes, he's quite charming and the yeah yeah,
David Verlin Supreme sounds like some of the droppings I found on the roof
yesterday when I was clearing the gutters. But we won't, all right,
yeah, so yeah. What we know is that candidates who only win bare
majorities, like George Herbert Walker Bush against Pat Buchanan, that is a sign
that they are having problems. Richard Nixon won seventy percent in his reelect in
nineteen seventy two against two semi serious opponents, and that obviously didn't cause him
a problem. If Biden dips below that against Dean Phillips and Marian Williamson as
a write in candidate in New Hampshire, that is going to be evidence that
there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Joe Biden. And if it's then
followed up with substandard performances in Michigan and South Carolina, I think the writing
is on the wall, which is to say, not that Biden will not
be the nominee, only Joe Biden can take himself out of the race at
this point, given how you have to file months in advances. Isn't nineteen
sixty eight where you can where Bobby Kennedy's dad can get in the race in
the middle of March and be serious. Knentended you can't do that anymore.
But it would be a sign that Biden would be a seriously weak candidate,
even against a week in Donald Trump. And that's what I'm looking for in
New Hampshire. On the Democratic side is does Biden break two thirds of the
vot wait Henry So there's no way for the party. Let's suppose that on
Wednesday morning he's fallen below two thirds exactly, that it's a catastrophe for Biden.
Even then, Biden alone, or doctor Jill perhaps, who could talk
him into it, Biden alone can remove himself as nominee. Even then,
there's no way for the party. There aren't elders in the party, there's
not enough structure. There's nobody to walk to whisper in his ear, Joe,
it's time. In other words, there's no mechanism for getting rid of
this guy. Well, but it's the things. There are people whill whisper
in his ear, but he has to make the decision. That thing is
that the Democratic Party, like the Republican Party following the McGovern Frasier committee,
has bound its hands. There are no longer unallocated, unmitted delegates, even
the super delegates. This is what Bernie forced through after twenty sixteen. Even
the super delegates on the Democratic side are bound to the results of the primary.
So you have to look and say, Okay, how many primaries have
the filing deadlines passed on? Well, pretty much all of them that vote
before April, if not some of the ones in April, so you can't
get on the ballot. Could you mount a write in campaign? Well,
good luck trying to mount a national write in campaign. My point is that
the convention selects, and the convention is bound to the primaries, and Biden's
the only serious candidate. So if Biden drops out, then all of those
delegates become unbound, and then you can do it. But if by and
says no way, no how I'm going to run, than the Democratic Party
rules basically tie the party, uh, like an anchor or. Biden is
the answer the ankles of the party, and the same is Trump the Democrats
of the Republicans. Let's say, you know, let's say, uh,
Biden. You know, let's say Trump is the nominate, you know,
gets the delegates and so forth, and then in June something even worse comes
out that that is, finally is the thing that aggravates Republicans. I don't
do anything about it. You know, you'd have to basically have a coup
against the rules, And good luck trying to win an election and coup against
the rules. Okay, so I guess what I'm saying a bunch of questions.
I was just softening you up. Henry now, Yeah, Peter,
Peter already broach this topic right There's Right around now is the time that people
start to think, Okay, it might be this, it might be Biden
versus Trump, but what are the more fun, interesting things that could happen
right usually right around now in a normal year, which we're never gonna have
again, which we only had a few of them anyway, but since twenty
sixteen they seem to be impossible. Right around now, he were going,
Hey, you know what's gonna happen. I think it's going to be a
Broker convention. That's what people kept saying. Bro never happened. Right around
now, people say, yeah, no, Biden's could stay in the race
until after the convention and which point he can be replaced to blah blah blah
blah. Is any of that gonna happen? I mean, is any of
that or any of these fantasies between now and November whatever it is twenty twenty
four gonna happen? I mean, isn't it? Don't mean this a script.
He doesn't like it. He's asking you for real, I'm just saying,
like this this is now what people like everyone, you know, they
to get your op ed place to the New York Times. Here's a scenario,
and then you spin out this very complicated mouse trap of it could happen?
Is that gonna happen? Any of that stuff. It's almost certain not
to happen, but because there's such high impact to you have to it gets
possible. Look Joe Biden's job approval rating as of yesterday morning, and the
average was thirty nine point eight percent. Historically, a candidate will get one
percent or less more than his final job approval rating. So what that means
is that Joe Biden would get forty one percent of the vote if the election
were held yesterday. Okay, I assure you that if Donald Trump has become
the nominee in mid July and Joe Biden's job approval rating is at thirty nine
percent, and every pool has him trailing Trump. And remember, because of
the Electoral College, all Trump has to do is lose the popular vote by
four points or less and he is president. So if he's winning the popular
vote, that's like total gravy. Okay. So if I'm a Democrat and
I'm looking and I say we meet in four weeks and this guy is eighty
one years old. Right, people don't care about what's going on. They've
made their decision on him. Would I like be putting every pressure possible to
have Joe Biden say, please don't put my name in nomination. I've decided
not to run again, there by freeing up the degas. I spoke to
my doctors and blah blah blah. Yeah, do I think it will happen?
No? Do I think it could happen. Should an analyst look at
low probability high impact scenarios? Yes, So it's worth discussing with the caveat
that this is the two and a half percent happening changes everything narrative with the
emphasis on two and a half, Right, I think it's less likely that
Biden drops out after he's nominated to be replaced by the National Committee because with
mail voting, it's very hard. You know. There they meet at the
end of August, Secretaries of state will start finalizing ballots in September. Wow,
be mailed out in late September or early October. Okay, it's just
you theoretically could do it. But if you're gonna play that scenario, play
it out before the convention. Now, of course, if by your message
you got Labor Day, you can't help it. Your message to to Gavin
Newsom is don't hold your breath. I think Gavin Newsom has not been holding
his breath all along. But I don't think Gavin Newsom would be the nominator.
Now who would would be? Gret Who do you think? So my
idea? I know we just said this is gonna happen. Yeah, my
Democrat strategy had on. I think, who do I want to be my
ticket if it's not Biden Harris? And my answer is Whitner, Warmer,
Whitmer, Warnert. Why two swing states, white woman, black man.
You have a huge problem with black enthusiasm and support. Warnock, unlike Harris,
energizes blacks, and Whitmer is the voice of the suburban progressive Democratic woman
but isn't so out there like Elizabeth Warren. So thank you, Governor of
California. I really don't want to have to defend feces in San Francisco.
All right, all right, So my next question is this, These are
Republicans are kind of like their hands are tied, right, the guys winning
primaries. He's not a fresh face, he was president. Everybody knows what
the second term of Donald Trump's going to be like except for baby Peter,
who keeps hoping that one day he's going to be visited by three ghosts at
night. But he is who he is. That's just the way. He's
an eighty year old man, and he's got, you know, four hundred
pound eight year old man. He's not going to change right, better or
worse. People who like him liking, people who hate him hate him,
those things aren't going to change. Aren't there Democrats thinking themselves? Or I
should say it the other way. The theory has been the Democrats are desperate
for Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee because then you know we're in.
Then that's what they are Democrats really thinking that? Do they really think that
this is going to be a romp for their candidate if Trump is the nominee
on the other side, Now, at this point, I think it's pretty
clear they don't think that. I think when they were I think they did
think that a year ago. But I think it's pretty clear that Democrats no
longer think that he is a certain loser. I think they think they want
to believe that people will change their minds. Go back to and they may
be right. We'll go back to well, I don't like Biden, not
Trump, but no, I don't think they're pining for Trump when I think
right now they would prefer DeSantis because DeSantis has fizzled as in a major way,
and they say, gee, we get to run all the policies things
against the Santas and he's a dress and he's a damp squib as a candidate,
so you know, give give me more some of that rgdes right,
but they're not going to get to Santas. They're going to get Haley or
Trump, so they're probably memos. I clearly rather have Trump because Haley is
a non offensive person who can be the receptacle for Biden discontent. So okay,
to more on I could give back. So I so I imagine there
are meetings and memos which I desperately want to read by very smart people,
Democrats, democratic strategies, smart people. I'm smart saying emphatically a year ago,
we need to neutralize Ron decent is he's the one we should be worried
about, and we need to prop up Donald Trump. And they were utterly
wrong. And I would love to know how much money was spent to generate
all those pages saying exactly the opposite. And do you think this kind of
political malpractice will ever be punished on either side? Because you and I both
know there are those memos, we could find that that paper exists. Well,
it was quite clear from what you're seeing is that people on the Democratic
side feared DeSantis, which is why you start to see hit piece after hit
piece after hit piece. And the question is they may have had their intended
to fact, you know, which is say he just used to run ahead
of Donald Trump against Joe Biden. Now he runs behind. It may very
well be because of that, So I wouldn't say it's more political malpractice,
but for that, maybe Ron DeSantis is doing better against Donald Trump. But
for that, maybe he's better in the matchups for Biden. What's happened is
that Trump has shown it energy and a verve right that. Frankly, when
you watch that announcement speech in November twenty twenty two or December whenever it is
that he formally got in the race, this guy looked like he was going
through the motions, you know. This guy looked like an aging rocker who
had alady gotten the words he doesn't look that way anymore. Yeah, so
when you're making these decisions, you're making these decisions against the backrup of what
you can say, who's got the hardest job for November? But Bush Biden
v. Trump Trump seems to be his goal is to say, everything's crappy.
This guy did it. Everything was great when I under me. Forget
about COVID, forget about all these other mistakes I made, but it was
all great. I'm going to restore the greatness that I brought. So you
got to it's a referendum on Biden, and Biden said, are you kidding
me? This guy's insane, He's erratic and dangerous. We bear he got
out of the Trump era. Remember how terrible that was. Who's got it
worse? I'm not sure, but neither of them. You know, the
thing is that both of them should not be president. But one of them
wou absent something unusual. You know, again, seventy seventy to eighty one
year old man who knows what's going on inside their bodies or in their inside
their heads. But this is no different than Clinton. Trump. Neither of
those people should have been present, but one of them had to be.
Hence the sweet meteor of death bumper stickers, right, is it coming back?
Yeah? Oh absolutely, you know it's kind of yeah. I'm almost
waiting for the one. You know, don't blame me, I voted for
Smad. Now this is definitely for many people, the Kang versus Codo selection
to drump right twirling, twirling into the future. Henry. Last question here,
and that has to do with what happened to this with DeSantis, Because
here's a guy who has all the policies that the people who support Donald Trump
would generally like. He doesn't ever a record of hanging a metal around Fauci's
neck. People who don't like the vaccine, well, Ron DeSantis does not
brag about Operation Warp Speed. People want the schools open. People wanted society
all of the things that supposedly we want, including an ability to rhetorically and
practically and legislatively go up against a great number of institutions and ideas that supposedly
the right does not want implemented or strengthened. Here's the guy, but he
didn't want him. They wanted this guy over here, this protein malleable figure
into whom they can read a whole bunch of other stuff. Was Desantus doomed
for the start, or simply because of the fact that Trump was in it,
or was there something about his personality or his boots or something that just
people didn't cotton tune because I thought he was. I thought he was.
I thought I'm mystified. But you know, there's never a mono direction.
There's never a mono causal explanation for any time. But what I would say
is that the DeSantis theory of victory was I'm going to be the maga candidate
who wins, and that's going to convince people who like Trump to back me.
And Trump decided to say, you're not maga. M Can you remember
Ron de Santis responding to those attacks. Nikki Haley is taking it getting incoming
in New Hampshire and she's tweeting and refuting that in real time. I cannot
remember a single time where Ron DeSantis defended himself. I cannot remember until the
end when Ron de Santis started actually contrasting himself with Trump. The whole theory
of the case had to be one of two things. You either have to
go like a typical attack on an incumbent, which is drive the negatives up,
which means attack, attack, attack, or you have to go and
say there's going to be a choice between two positives. You're gonna like Trump,
but you have to prefer me. That requires you to make the argument.
DeSantis didn't either. If Donald Trump died the day before the Iowa caucus,
I think Rond de Santis would have won because I think a lot of
people say, yeah, I like you, I can accept you, but
they love Trump. They never got an argument from DeSantis why they should prefer
him over Trump, and they never got you know, you're saying, well,
Trump's just as malieable guy, I blame him for COVID. Did you
ever hear Donald or did Ron DeSantis ever devote a speech to saying let me
tell you why Donald Trump should not be president. He talked about I was
better, you know, I beat Fauci and he let other people try and
remember, oh, well, who's behind you must have been Drump. Now
you have to beat somebody over the head with a tub bay for you know,
Napoleon said, if you mean to take Vienna, take Vienna, Vienna
to take Vienna, and he went to Salzburn. Yeah, that's pretty well,
you know what we might have you on a couple more times before the
election actually comes. Thank you for having me on, and I hope your
listeners can find me on my own podcast, Beyondyes with which is also through
Ricochet Yes Beyond the Polls, Yeah, on the Ricochet network. This is
the I hope something really crazy and nutty happens. Just we are now hoping
for an act of God. Yeah, just because it'll be more interesting.
But that podcast is riveting and it really answers all the questions you need.
Hey, Henry, thank you, thank you very much, Thank you,
sir, bye bye. So that is just one of the podcasts you can
find in the Ricochet Audio network, by the way, and there's a whole
bunch of stuff just us. You know. My own diner is starting up
again. Yeah, I did the third episode this week in the loving it,
having a lot of fun. We're going to figure out a way to
get calls in so it can be like an actual live radio that'd which would
be fun. I'll call him under an alias. I think I might.
I think I might recognize either of you if you can. If you call
it, let's use that fancy voice distorting software that they have, amazing software
they have these days, though, they can take the speech of somebody who
was speaking in another language using that person's voice converted to English, which is
great. Which gave you the opportunity to hear the Argentinian fellow that that wild
haired libertarian Javier Midier, I can never pronounce his name correctly. Who's in
Davos? Who put the wood to him? You had him on the ground,
was giving him a business. There are a couple of speeches that I
heard where people actually addressed the the grandees and uh and and cast and dared
to break their bulls to tell them that what they believe was not the case.
And Javier just you know, did you guys read the speech? He's
just he saw excerpts of it. Read it here is practically porn. I
was like, wow, I got it. Not only I read it,
James, but I had it forward to me on all sorts of group chats.
I'm on many of them, not even political. Just have you seen
this guy the picture of him flying coach on Twitter? He posted a picture
of him flying coach. This is what the capital is doing flying coach at
Davos. And meanwhile, I just got out of my head. John Carey
name him some socialists flying private Venezuelan caught the crat or so, yeah,
that's right away. Who cares about climate change more? Yeah? Oh,
this guy is just too good. I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Apparently he's nuts, but I can handle nuts. What what other shoe?
What do you mean you mean he's he seems too good to be true.
He's got a cloned dog named after dogs. I think he has half
a dozen of them. Sometimes one is a clone named after Murray Rotbark.
Yes, yes, be one of those transhumanists. You find out that he's
got a chip in the back of his head, which you regularly like that,
But I mean, yeah, when you talk about pure mainlining Heroin Portant.
This is how we have reached the point where with different names or forms,
whether they openly declare themselves as communists, fascists, Nazis, socialists,
social democrats, national socialists, Christian democrats, Kanesians, Neo Kansians, progressives,
populist nationalists, or globalists, in the end, there are no substantive
differences. I just like it's the state that's the problem. It's the state,
and everybody who exalts the state is leading towards the model that has denied
people to progress, that open markets, and yeah, it's just I mean,
it's fantastic, But I'm sure at some point he's just going to turn
into a jack booted fat that he's going to be portrayed as the jackboot And
that's what I love about political discourse today is that the more you argue for
for local and freedom from the boots, the more you are associated with brown
shirts who who march through cities and burned books. Just it just it just
absolutely fascinates me. So good for him. Also in the news today before
we leave, in the next three minutes, so we seem to have a
rash of bricked teslas around the world, at least in the United States and
cold places where people are waking up to the fact that that maybe EV's anything
relying on a battery doesn't do well in sub zero temperatures. Germany, it
turns out, is also backing off some of its EV consumption. Ford I
think, is decreasing consumption, decreasing production of its evs because no one wants.
In general, there are always going to be few in niche people who'd
like to wear around with a little jets and sound that they make that I
get it. That's fine. I can see what people need want. Our
own friend Bjorn Lamberg tweeted out the other day that they're you know, twenty
fifty something like eighty five percent of the people are still going to want a
gas powered car. And it's right, I mean they but it's actually it's
it's a classic case of the environmentalists of the EVY supporters getting them, not
taking the win. But the consumers want a hybrid, they want and the
hybrids exist, and there was the the crackpot environmentally said, well, the
hybrid is that's not going to solve the problem. But in fact the consumers
think, no, no, hybrid's perfect for me. So I know it
can start. I know I can if I forget to charge it or doesn't
charge it's hard to find a charger. I know it will work. My
gas consumption goes down by seventy five or eighty percent, and I'm happy.
And only the crackpots, only the zealots, think no, we can have
a B plus a minus solution. You must do everything the way we insist
that you do it. And it's just shocking to me that it's a that
that once again. I mean not to sound like my my glorious political hero,
the President of Argentina. But when you meddle in the if you,
if you, if you stop listening to the market, you stop getting the
good news. And this is good news. That's that's a beautifully put.
That's exactly right. People are saying, Okay, coal is dirty, we
don't want to ey coal anymore. It's great. We got all this natural
gas shoot and then we're told, of course we can't have natural gas,
so back to col We can't go back to coal, and we can't go
back to nuclear because it takes too long and we're all very afraid of it
because of Jane Fond in her movie. So therefore we have to go to
wind and solar, which is great because it's renewable, except that it doesn't
work. It doesn't provide enough power. It just doesn't. And I don't
care how good the batteries get, it's not going to be the solution.
It drives me absolutely crazy. But you know why, I will never get
an EV I don't care if they get those things to start when it's thirty
below. I don't care if the range is forever, because I would have
range anxiety about that thing. It's because I'm the kind of guy who's always
got his eye on the battery icon on my phone or my laptop for me,
and I start to get I start to get aujita if it gets below
ninety percent. When it's eighty eight percent, I'm starting to look around for
an outlet. I travel, I go from here to Cankun on a four
hour plane. I've got I'm practically carrying, you know, a firestone battery
from a car in case that there'd be nothing at the airport or that the
even even though i know there'll be a socket on the plane, I've just
I've got a bad I got a battery because what if the socket on the
plane doesn't work? And then I'm stuck at the airport for a while,
and I'm trying to find my guide to take me into the jungle, which
is an hour ride. I don't want I don't want to be a three
percent five percent when I'm going through the jungle. I'm you know, I
got to call my kidnappers to get them, you know, my relatives,
to get the kidnappers money. And no, so I would never buy an
EV I'd just be looking all the time at that, whereas in a car,
I know that this is America, and around the corner or down the
road there's going to be a station and it's going to pump it out,
and it's going to be going to be the most efficient means of generating power
to my engine. You can possibly think of. The most efficient means by
the way of keeping Ricochet going is for you, the listener, to go
there and join. You're gonna want to do that, rob right, because
they will get well, sty'll get so much. This is where you insert
your pitchbot. Why it's great now you tour? Oh yes. In fact,
what you'll get is a civil community of people talking and debating in the
civil way and also sharing things from a shared broad perspective. We're not talking
about, you know, people who are specifically agree on every single thing that
is that is fast disappearing in our public sphere and public square. But Ricochet
and ricochet dot Com are there places where we're still flying that flag. So
we would like you if you've enjoyed this podcast, we'd love you to join
so we can keep making these podcasts. We'd also love you to join and
see what's going on in the member feed. We'd love to have you be
a member of the same club that we are. I go to the member
feed all the time, and I often post pieces that are available no place
else, nowhere else, not on my blog, not on the main page,
not in the Star Tribute, not a National Review. If I had
more hair, i'd say that's where I let it down. But there we
go. It's been great, gentlemen, a pleasure. We'll see you all
in the comments at Ricochet or point out next next week. Next week,
boys Ricochet join the Conversation