WEBVTT

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Not five miles an hour riding too
his head. You hop it down first

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with the lumpbonius face, and on
the very next pitch he up and stole

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second face with greatest speed. He
wasn't born, he had yes uniform.

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Welcome to the Prospect Pretty Boy Podcast. I am Nate. There's another guy

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here. Excuse me if I lack
a little enthusiasm for talking pretty boys.

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At the very least, maybe this
episode can serve as a little fretey sleep

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aid for you. Esting aside,
Pretty boy Rookie is joining me. Matt,

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how are you, my friend?
Oh? I'm pretty. I got

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all dolled up. I'm wearing my
tucks. Yeah, I look good,

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fresh cut, fresh fade. We're
in here. We're talking about the pretty

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boys. We got to look pretty, so I'm ready to go. Yeah.

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This is not my comfort range.
But don't think. But I have

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compiled the list of I don't know. I guess you could say the top

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twenty pitching prospects. At least in
my opinion, you have constructed similar lists

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for hitters, right, that is
correct? Now, would you say,

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when you put your list together here, how many of these hitters do you

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feel like? Really good? At
their chances of being an everyday guy,

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all of them, some of them, handful of them. What do you

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think? Yeah, I mean,
we're going to talk about the top twenty

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five hitters here, and I feel
really pretty strongly that all of them are

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going to be regulars. Are better
Like most of these guys, I think

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you're gonna end up being above average, so like twelve team mixed league,

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Fantasy relevant such that, like these
are a guy. These are guys that

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in two years, three years,
whatever, depending on their timeline for some

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of them, these guys are going
to be your top three four round guys.

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And you know, not all of
them are going to pan out.

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I'm going to be wrong about some
of these for sure, but as we're

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sitting here right now, these are
the kind of twenty five guys that I

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feel most confident end up as above
average regulars. I don't entirely know what

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your process was for this, but
how hard was it to whittle it down

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to twenty five names? Do you
think there's another twenty five that could easily

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be in here for you or was
it a bit easier than that. We

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talked a little bit about this before
we started recording, and I'd say the

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top kind of fifteen to eighteen or
so of the list fell together pretty quickly,

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like the names were down pretty easily, and then it was about kind

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of sorting and grouping and figuring out
how I prefer them within some of those

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tiers. The last five names I
struggled with a little bit about who to

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prioritize there, and then I would
say the next five names would be the

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ones where it really starts to get
tricky. For the most part, these

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names aren't going to be surprising to
people. You know. Some of them.

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I'm sure I'm higher on than other
public rankers, and I'm sure many

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of our twelve listeners are going to
disagree with me on a lot of these

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picks. But for me, I
think the top tier of hitters was relatively

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straightforward. Now would you say that
that's the same thing for the pitchers,

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especially going down to twenty. No, for me, I feel pretty good

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about the top two guys and everybody
else I could see not working. But

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on the maybe flip side of that
or thin side of the coin, I

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thought there were a ton of names
that you can make decent argument for being

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in your top twenty pitch list.
Like I think Initially, I mean,

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I was like, at fifty guys, I was like, Okay, all

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these guys I could put in the
top twenty, I think, and then

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maybe the last eight or nine names
got a little tougher. But I don't

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know the volatility. I don't know
if that's the right word. Pitching,

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the way that it can, like
we've talked about before, can get much

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better. The way that it can
fail feels a little different to me than

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hitters. I think, I,
like I had mentioned you prior, if

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I was doing a hitter list,
I think I'd have to like kind of

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go the other direction. I think
I'd feel really good about like a dozen

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bats or fifteen bats and have lots
of reasons I'd feel good about crossing the

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guy off in the sense that I
feel decently well that this will be an

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everyday contributor that will be good for
our fantasy teams, and I'd have to

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fill the rest of the list the
other way. I don't know if that

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answer makes sense, but yeah,
it makes sense, And I think that

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that's one of the things about pitching
that is so hard, and to be

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fair, one of the reasons why
I and others fade pitching actually top pitching,

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because names that are just outside this
list of your top twenty could easily

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make a jump, and pretty quickly, within three months or a year,

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you're like, that's a regular.
That's going to be a guy who's a

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staple of a rotation in the major
leagues, and that can happen pretty fast.

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And guys that were never on top
twenty pitcher lists frequently end up in

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the top forty arms in all of
Major League Baseball at the end of the

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season. And that just doesn't happen
as often on the hitter side. And

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so that's not to say that like
there aren't such thing as pitching prospects,

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you know, that old aphorism.
It's more that it's easier to see a

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guy go from like, oh,
that's an org arm or maybe he is

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a back end rotation guy. We
see those guys up level for a season

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or two at a time relatively often, I would say, and I mean,

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I agree, like you've picked many
of my favorite names from the minor

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leagues in list, But at the
same time, there's a whole handful of

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other names that I could argue anywhere
in the from ten on, you know,

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what I mean, Right Like,
if you got twenty five bats and

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then there's the rest of the field
of thousands of prospect hitters, right like,

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I would bet your top twenty five
lists versus the field. Now the

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pitching list, I don't know,
I'd probably just take the field over my

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top twenty, you know what I
mean. I just think that's kind of

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the nature of I mean, pitching
development. Like I'm going to share this

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list. I think Clegg's going to
put it out on the Dynasty dugout and

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I wrote a little bit about this, the evolution the development of a picture.

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I mean, I think the main
meat of that takes place in the

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majors and late twenties early thirties is
kind of the peak for a lot of

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pictures. Whereas I don't think hitters, I don't know if need is the

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right word, but they have to
get to a certain level I think a

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lot quicker. So in that way, it's a very different animal I think

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too. Yeah, And this time
of year is a really interesting one.

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We sit here recording on May twentieth, and a bunch of the guys that

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have been a staple of hot prospect
lists for the past year or so have

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all just graduated because they were the
ones that were promoted or made teams out

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of camp. And so Jackson's Churio, Merrill, Colt, Keith, Colton,

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Kowser, who holds me Evan Carter
or why at Langford. These guys

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all have graduated out and they're like
have been on these lists since six months

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ago or more. This is an
interesting time of the year too, when

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you start looking at the larger set
of prospects out there, like guys are

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just starting to get promoted out of
a ball. On the pitching side,

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we've seen some of those arms that
we've identified as like, hey, these

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are really interesting and now they're starting
to get promoted and have success in High

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A or Double A. While that
hasn't quite started to happen with most hitting

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prospects yet, I think it's going
to start relatively soon, Like we're going

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to start to see a bit more
of the promotion some of the prospects we'll

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talk about, and certainly the prospects
that are right behind this list who as

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you'll hear, I struggled with that
next tier beyond the kind of top twenty

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five because so many of those guys
have potential to leap into this list with

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graduations and with their performance. But
it's a big mixing bucket, and we

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still don't have enough information yet,
you know, And I think that that

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makes it this time. You're sort
of an interesting update for prospect lists.

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Generally agreed, and I think a
lot of public list makers are getting ready

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to put some of the some of
their new updates out. And uh,

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yeah, I don't know what we're
your first five, last five, however

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you want to say that names on
your list here, Well, we're going

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to start at twenty five Mariners young
outfielder question mark, Lazaro Montes, twenty

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four Cole Young Mariners infielder question mark. Oh, here we go. We're

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just going to get twenty five Mariners
here, Matt. I mean, I

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wish you know that there are some
number twenty three for you. Nate Handy

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Adiel Amador, Colorado, Rocky's middlandfielder, probably second baseman, twenty two,

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Hesson kirstad for the Baltimore Orioles outfielder
twenty one, Kyle men Zardo the Cleveland

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Guardians newly promoted first basement Las Montees. He's the only a ball guy that

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made my top twenty five, and
there were a bunch of names that I

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considered here. As as I told
Nate, there's a bunch of like the

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kind of major League ready guys that
look like regulars, you know, Brian

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Ramos, Graham Paully, kind of
that tier of guys that are they're interesting

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hitters, but they maybe lack the
upside. And then there's a bunch of

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the A ball hitters like Colt Emerson, Daral Perez, Aiden Miller, like

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those kinds of guys that are performing. They're really young, but they're only

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doing it in A ball so far, I have questions are they going to

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be able to sustain? So I
picked one A ball guy, and I

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picked Las Montes, and it's because
the calling card is power and the question

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mark for him is his contact.
And so far this year he has improved

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his contact and his strikeout rate so
significantly that to me, he starts to

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look like that actualized version of himself. So for Las Montes, the calling

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cards power, it's still just at
A ball, but I think when he

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gets promoted to Everett, he's going
to crush it and then he might not

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get tested again until double A.
This is just a corner outfield mashing starter

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kit. Cole Young and Adaiel Amador
are two of the best contact hitters in

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the minors. Bring different things to
the plate. Though young they are,

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they have some of the lowest swing
strike rates. They've been very young for

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the level, so they both remain
very young, and they're both in double

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A. Cole Young, his batterball
spray, I think is a little bit

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more conducive to letting those contact skills
flourish. But he's not as and Amador

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this year despite running a really low
BABAP and the surface numbers look bad,

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but he's still getting on base.
He's stealing a lot of bags more than

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I thought he was going to.
And I'm kind of thinking, my opinion

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is that Amador is just getting a
bit unlucky and some of this is just

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going to work out in the wash. So this kind of soft contact ground

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balls that he's hitting a few too
many of, now, I don't think

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that's who he is, and I
think he's gonna end up adjusting with the

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speed. I just put him a
notch above Cole Young. Hetsin Cresad and

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colemon Zardo are similar in lots of
ways. They both have high home run

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projection. Curestad has more raw power, Manzarto kind of similar to Cole Young,

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hits the ball at better launch angles, like he's hitting a bunch of

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fly balls, hitting high line drives, and has just done that since college.

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That's kind of all he's done.
So even though the overall ceiling pretty

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similar, these guys are going to
get to those home runs in slightly different

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ways. Neither is really a threat
on the bases, so I kind of

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lump them together. Kerstad's a little
older, he's had a taste of the

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majors. Manzarto a little bit younger, but recent promotion as well, so

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kind of both knocking on the door. And these are the oldest guys on

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my list. I think, yeah, there might be one other hitter that's

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close to Manzar's age, but Curestad's
the oldest on the list. And some

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of this is he's missed time because
of injury, so he may make up

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for that once he makes the major
leagues. So that's my first five.

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Man. I gotta say, I
don't know if there's been a pretty boy

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prospect more disappointing in my looks this
year than amador. I just, okay,

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your contact rate is high, you're
not striking out a lot. What's

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his strikeout rate? Did you mention
that? I didn't. But over the

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last two seasons, so his age
twenty in age twenty one seasons between High

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and Double A, it's been thirteen
point three percent. Okay, he's at

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seventeen point six this year and his
ground ball rate is fifty eight. Matt.

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I have seen just so many weeks
ass swings from him, like okay,

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cool, you put the bat on
the ball, you have bounced it

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back to the picture. I was
already a bit reluctant on what his sort

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of fantasy upside might be. Just
not impressed. I don't understand that that

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sort of hitting and what purpose that
serves, Like, just swing the bat

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and if you strike out over the
long haul, you're gonna have more positive

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outcomes than tapping it back to the
picture or some soft ground ball to second

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base. Like I don't know,
I just don't. I don't really get

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what he's doing. I'm with you, this has been sort of unquestionably outside

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of one thing, a really really
disappointing start to his Double A season.

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But he's running a one seventy six
babbit. Literally, nobody runs a babbit

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that low, Like Joe Blow doesn't
run a babbit that low. Right,

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Well, you're not going to get
a lot of hits when you hit the

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ball so weakly, But that still
is like it's an impossible babbitt to sustain.

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I also think that we've seen him
adjust before. He's a very talented

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batta ball hitter, and I think
that that adjustment is still in the offing,

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and this is like bad surface results
and potentially some bad process that we

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hope he's learning from. And even
with that, he's still swiped fifteen bags

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this year, so he's barely on
base. He's not hitting for any power.

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I think his ISO is like he's
got like one double or something this

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year, and a lot of that
is because he's making this soft content out

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of the zone. His ISO right
now is point zero zero nine. Yeah,

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one double on the air for what
is that really bad? And yet

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he's just bunting, just practice bunting, just bumped every time, and he

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still has I think he's taking walks, which I know you hate, but

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it's still to me showing that there
are some good swing decisions happening. And

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some of the underlying skills remain interesting
to me. Betting on, he's very

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young for double A still and he's
going to make an adjustment. We'll see

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wrong on this, but we've seen
a lot about his back to ball in

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the past that makes me think a
lot of this is an operation and those

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ground balls are going to turn into
line drives. He's going to get hits,

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get doubles, put them out of
the yard. Yeah, I don't

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know. I mean, we're only
a couple of months, not even a

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couple months into the season, But
I mean I'm pressing that pumpkin button down

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halfway right now. I am.
I don't know if I could be any

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less impressed with a hitter than Amador. All right, enough for that,

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Let's get over to the good side
of things here. I'm like, I'm

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sure I'm probably gonna have some names
that other folks wouldn't have, maybe as

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high. But like I said before, I think that there's a lot more

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room for placing certain kinds of bets
and going after and valuing different types of

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arms. This is me, Like
I said, I'll have some more explanations

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and tidbits out there in my piece, But number twenty. We've talked plenty

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about Joandra Swarez of the Mets.
I put him there, Whoop Whoop.

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Nineteen I went with young Ja We
are Richie who we have a very small

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professional sample size of, but I
was smitten with his reputation and a little

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bit that I did see of I
don't know, wanting to value him enough

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that he could be a young and
up and coming executionist that I love to

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go after. I'll put a decent
price tag on him. Eighteen I went

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with Pirates. Well, I guess
he's the top pirate on my list,

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which probably go against a lot of
pirate lists here. But I was a

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big fan of Mike Burrows and his
ascension in twenty twenty two. I felt

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like he and Gavin Stone had some
similarities in their rise. At the time,

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I wasn't sure which of the two
I liked better, and of course,

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as Burrows was kind of rounding into
form a little bit, Tommy John

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struck. But Matt. When I
do pitching speculation, I like to just

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treat Tommy John as just a pause
button, and I don't necessarily get down

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on guys or value them less.
After Tommy John, I just am hoping

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that the story zooms where it left
off. But him and his changeup and

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the way that he was looking,
and I think, knocking on the big

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league doors, I have remained Mike
Burrows stand. At seventeen, I went

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with Sean Sullivan or the Rockies,
which I know is going to turn a

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lot of people off. But that
fastball from the left side, and that

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deception, the shape of that thing, what it's doing to hitters, this

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sort of tier pitchers where all of
my I don't know, more confident bets

241
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start to dwindle. I will take
a ride on that Sullivan fastball and stay

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a little committed to his development here. And then sixteen I went with the

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very trendy hot name. But I
think rightfully so Zebbie Matthews are the twins,

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all right? All right? Some
interesting names there, some that I

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really dig I know some folks are
going to want me to ask about Burrows,

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but we've talked about this before.
I'm kind of with you. I

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really liked Burrows when he was coming
up in twenty twenty two, So we're

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gonna skip over talking about him.
Maybe we can dive into him as he

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starts his coming back from rehab,
which I think should be. I haven't

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really looked or heard much, but
it's got to be coming fairly soon.

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What I think, maybe beginning of
last year, if I remember correctly,

252
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his first or triple A start maybe
you know, wasn't the greatest, but

253
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then I thought he looked really good
and at least one of them, and

254
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then was gone, yep, yeah, I think it was a second one

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that he got hurt in. Was
it okay? Yeah? I am curious

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to hear your argument for Sean Sullivan. Yeah, and that's fair, And

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you know, I will not look
down upon anyone who wants to cross a

258
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RACKI off their list completely. But
like we've talked about their system and their

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their arm farm right now, and
obviously I'm a bit biased. I'm a

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Rockies fan, but I really am
trying to not be. They have collected

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talent at an unprecedented rate for them. I don't think there's ever been this

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much arm talent in their system before, so I'm really didn't to necessarily like

263
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judge them like past Rockies arm farms. I think there is positive things going

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on, and they're pitching, they
are catching up to some degree. They've

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got a pitching lab and from all
the way from from what I can see

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a ball to the majors, I
think there are good things happening. I

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like what some of their major league
arms are doing right now. I think

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they've all taken developmental steps, and
with the attrition of arm health that perhaps

269
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an unprecedented rate, there is a
possibility that a Rockies arm or two can

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help our fantasy squads. I don't
know. I'm trying to navigate that the

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best I can. But with Sullivan
in particular, I think about Cody Bradford,

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some Matt and how he's got a
softer left handed fastball that is really

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effective. And I'm not saying that
the fastballs are one for ones here,

274
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but after about I don't know,
fifteen fourteen on my list, I think

275
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the glab gets way bitter. There
are less sort of whole packages, if

276
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you will, flashing what I want
to bet on. So I was just

277
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kind of then attaching myself to maybe
one particular skill that I really want to

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commit to, and for me,
it's Sullivan and that fastball, and I

279
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think he's just in Hia right now. It's a tough place to pitch,

280
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but I think we're seeing what that
fastball can do, and if that's the

281
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rudder to his development, I think
I kind of want to take that run.

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Yeah, And we talked a couple
episodes ago about how many of the

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Rockies pitching prospects were actually showing out
really, really well, whether that be

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in Spokane like Sullivan or in Hartford
Palmquist, who we've talked about quite a

285
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bit. I think there's a few
guys that you can make the case for

286
00:20:45.839 --> 00:20:49.359
as the top Rockies pitching prospect and
not get laughed out of a room.

287
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Right, these are real arms and
Sullivan, you know, he's a second

288
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rounder out of wake Forest, which
is a pitching factory, so there's certainly

289
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some interest there. And he's had
a great start to his professional career.

290
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I mean love the low walk totals
like that is really really exciting to see,

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and he's getting lots of whiffs and
not just on his fastball. I

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think some of the off speed plays
pretty well too. And the fastball is

293
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very i mean, it's slaps very
different. Just watching on video, it's

294
00:21:21.680 --> 00:21:25.279
just it's a different look, different
deception, a different release, and I

295
00:21:25.319 --> 00:21:30.440
think a different movement profile. Like
my hitters list, it's just it's hard

296
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for me to really get behind a
guy when the track record is still pretty

297
00:21:37.480 --> 00:21:41.279
short. And sure, they've only
made it to high A as we've seen,

298
00:21:41.319 --> 00:21:45.480
and we've talked about double as really
where prospects start to cut their teeth

299
00:21:45.640 --> 00:21:49.440
and the drop off to double A
can be big, right, it should

300
00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:52.920
be a big drop. And I'm
not saying that that's true of Sullivan,

301
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just for me, it's a question
mark for a guy that had such kind

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00:21:56.279 --> 00:22:00.799
of a short professional track record up
to this point, I will admit,

303
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and I think if folks look at
my list, I'm I'm pretty picky.

304
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I will cross a guy off because
I don't like his headwhack. You know,

305
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I think for the most part,
it's worked fairly well for me.

306
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So this might be a little bit
of a risky call. But if you're

307
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going to ride a Rockies arm,
it might be wise to ride one where

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the juice is the fastball and not
breaking stuff necessarily. So and you know,

309
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I'm thinking long haul here, Matt, you know, like our eight

310
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year draft and Hold pitching league that
we did, Like I'm trying to think

311
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about eight years from now. I'm
trying to think about what this guy's career

312
00:22:36.920 --> 00:22:40.039
will look like I'm trying to think
about the skills that they may or may

313
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not have to survive the attrition and
survive long enough in the bigs, make

314
00:22:44.960 --> 00:22:49.160
enough good big league pitches to get
to that their late twenties their early thirties.

315
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Yeah, And that again is something
that I think we forget about with

316
00:22:53.200 --> 00:23:00.880
prospects and in dynasty when you're looking
at these guys like you aren't brostering prospects

317
00:23:00.880 --> 00:23:03.480
because you want them to be good
next year. Your rostering prospects if you're

318
00:23:03.519 --> 00:23:07.160
in a rebuild, for example,
so that they're going to be good in

319
00:23:07.200 --> 00:23:11.039
three years or two years or longer. Tricky with pitchers like you're talk about,

320
00:23:11.079 --> 00:23:14.279
you know, with Brandon fo or
Gavin Stone or some of these other

321
00:23:14.319 --> 00:23:18.160
guys that looked great in the minors
and then had a significant adjustment to the

322
00:23:18.200 --> 00:23:22.440
big leagues and sure look pretty good. Sure, And I get And I'm

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00:23:22.440 --> 00:23:25.400
not saying we need to think about, oh, which arm, which hitter

324
00:23:25.480 --> 00:23:27.680
or whatever that I'm going to put
on my roster for eight years, because

325
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the reality of that happening is is
slim. Five years into a new league

326
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and I have one player left from
that initial draft you know, and I

327
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feel like I'm stubborn, but I
do feel like when we put lists together

328
00:23:40.440 --> 00:23:44.000
like that, that's, in my
belief, that's how we should be looking

329
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at these players, looking at their
careers, not the short term. Yep.

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All right, back over to the
athlete side. Starting at number,

331
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We're going to go with Orioles outfielder
Dylan Beaver's number nineteen. We're gonna go

332
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with Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andy Payes
number eighteen. We're gonna go Pete Crow,

333
00:24:07.240 --> 00:24:15.759
Armstrong Maybee's centerfielder, number seventeen,
Mariners catching prospect Harry Ford, and

334
00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:22.079
number sixteen Tampa Bay Ray's shortstop prospect
Carson Williams. Now, this is an

335
00:24:22.119 --> 00:24:26.559
interesting group. Some that I've been
skeptical of before this season. We talked

336
00:24:26.599 --> 00:24:30.480
about a couple of these guys in
an off season episode, and some that

337
00:24:30.519 --> 00:24:34.200
I've kind of stumped for for a
while. Dylan Beavers is I think my

338
00:24:34.519 --> 00:24:40.599
kind of prospect, and that he
does everything well and doesn't have a standout

339
00:24:40.839 --> 00:24:45.960
specific tool. He strikes out better
than average amount, he walks more than

340
00:24:45.039 --> 00:24:51.359
average, He swipes bags and has
power and I think can get to it.

341
00:24:51.440 --> 00:24:55.200
He's sort of like quietly under the
radar good at all of these things,

342
00:24:55.359 --> 00:25:00.359
and I find that those players often
litter my rosters, especially in ROTO,

343
00:25:00.480 --> 00:25:03.359
because I like having a baseline of
skills across the board rather than guys

344
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who excel in one specific category.
So Dylan Bieber's I think fits that to

345
00:25:07.720 --> 00:25:11.440
a t, and he's done at
high and double A at young for a

346
00:25:11.559 --> 00:25:17.119
level twenty one and twenty two.
Andy Pies. I was way on last

347
00:25:17.160 --> 00:25:22.039
year when we did the Dynasty dugout
initial draft. I think I drafted all

348
00:25:22.160 --> 00:25:26.319
major leaguers, so I was like, I'm competing out of the fourteenth draft

349
00:25:26.359 --> 00:25:29.720
slot, so the last pick in
the draft, and I was like,

350
00:25:29.880 --> 00:25:33.079
I'm competing, and so I waited
on all of my prospects, but I

351
00:25:33.119 --> 00:25:36.839
felt like I picked some good ones. And my third prospect that I picked

352
00:25:36.880 --> 00:25:42.240
that year was Andy Pies because I
am a huge believer in guys that do

353
00:25:42.640 --> 00:25:48.920
things well at the extremes and his
trick his one weird trick and doctors will

354
00:25:48.920 --> 00:25:53.000
hate him that he hits everything in
the air and he has the power to

355
00:25:53.039 --> 00:25:56.240
make that work. He's hit the
ground running for the Dodgers already. But

356
00:25:56.640 --> 00:26:02.160
I think that even though his exit
the velocities are more good than great.

357
00:26:02.279 --> 00:26:06.400
He's going to be a great power
asset for a really long time because he

358
00:26:06.960 --> 00:26:10.759
has great plate discipline and he hits
the ball in the air all the time.

359
00:26:10.839 --> 00:26:15.200
And I love that PCA similar player
in a lot of ways. The

360
00:26:15.200 --> 00:26:19.279
exit velocities aren't outstanding, but he's
going to play all the time because he's

361
00:26:19.279 --> 00:26:23.680
got plays really really great defense and
he hits a lot of flyballs. So

362
00:26:23.799 --> 00:26:27.160
even though some of the exit velocity
stuff and the plate discipline stuff is not

363
00:26:27.240 --> 00:26:30.319
as good for PCA as it is
for any of these other guys in this

364
00:26:30.359 --> 00:26:34.039
grouping strikes out a bit more,
walks a bit less, but he's got

365
00:26:34.039 --> 00:26:37.880
that defensive floor, so he's going
to get plate appearances and that is king.

366
00:26:38.200 --> 00:26:42.279
And he's fast enough to steal bags. He's shown a propensity to steal,

367
00:26:42.480 --> 00:26:45.599
which it matters, and that's something
again that I think we'll come back

368
00:26:45.640 --> 00:26:48.880
to for some other guys that maybe
have better speed but aren't as good at

369
00:26:48.920 --> 00:26:52.559
stealing bags. And I think he's
going to get to his home runs because

370
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he hits fly balls and he's going
to play at Rikley harry Ford maybe my

371
00:26:56.200 --> 00:27:02.160
highest riser when I was doing this
prospect list for me coming into the season,

372
00:27:02.200 --> 00:27:06.559
he was like in the sixty seventy
range, and I had expressed some

373
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skepticism about how his power was going
to play at double A, especially in

374
00:27:11.000 --> 00:27:17.720
Arkansas where the park is pretty unfavorable
for power. That whole Texas League has

375
00:27:17.759 --> 00:27:22.839
a bunch of parks that aren't particularly
good for power. And it's been super

376
00:27:22.920 --> 00:27:26.279
impressive. He has not missed a
beat. Like his lines from last year

377
00:27:26.319 --> 00:27:30.839
and this year look so similar.
He's hitting home runs at about the same

378
00:27:30.920 --> 00:27:34.000
rate. He is walking at about
the same rate. He's striking out at

379
00:27:34.039 --> 00:27:38.079
about the same rate. He's doing
this while he's a catcher and is twenty

380
00:27:38.079 --> 00:27:44.400
one years old. That is really
impressive. That he has advanced to a

381
00:27:44.440 --> 00:27:48.839
harder, a worse ballpark, a
much more difficult league, has it missed

382
00:27:48.880 --> 00:27:52.680
a beat at all. I am
super buying that this is just like the

383
00:27:52.720 --> 00:27:56.640
plate skills that he's known for,
you know, walking and not striking out

384
00:27:56.720 --> 00:28:00.160
very much are going to help boy
his profile kind of no matter what the

385
00:28:00.240 --> 00:28:03.480
other contexts. And for me,
he's kind of cemented himself. I'm still

386
00:28:03.519 --> 00:28:07.119
not sure he's going to be a
catcher hit or miss in my looks,

387
00:28:07.240 --> 00:28:11.640
and I've watched quite a bit of
that Arkansas team, and so that's maybe

388
00:28:11.680 --> 00:28:15.319
still a knit to pick for him, But everything else about it has looked

389
00:28:15.519 --> 00:28:19.400
pretty good, down to him stealing
bases, which, again at the catcher

390
00:28:19.440 --> 00:28:22.279
position, that can be a big
leg up. And the last guy in

391
00:28:22.359 --> 00:28:26.759
this group is another one that I've
been somewhat skeptical of, Carson Williams shortstop,

392
00:28:26.880 --> 00:28:32.799
and my skepticism for him has been
his contact ability. He's run strikeout

393
00:28:32.839 --> 00:28:37.640
rates north of thirty percent for most
of his minor league career, but he's

394
00:28:37.680 --> 00:28:41.519
done so while still having well above
WRC plus despite being really young for the

395
00:28:41.599 --> 00:28:45.160
level. I mean, he made
triple A as a twenty year old last

396
00:28:45.240 --> 00:28:48.480
year, and he's made the strikeout
rate work because he has a lot of

397
00:28:48.559 --> 00:28:53.119
power and he plays great defense.
He's a plus defender at shortstop. The

398
00:28:53.160 --> 00:28:56.599
plus defender still seems to be true. My looks at him this year have

399
00:28:56.680 --> 00:29:00.480
looked he looks as slick and smooth
as ever. The power is still there,

400
00:29:00.720 --> 00:29:06.559
and most encouragingly, he's back at
double A, but his strikeout rate

401
00:29:06.680 --> 00:29:11.160
is way down and he remains one
of the youngest players in the league.

402
00:29:11.279 --> 00:29:17.480
So that's my five number twenty Beavers, nineteen Pies, eighteen PCA, seventeen

403
00:29:17.519 --> 00:29:21.119
Harry Ford, and sixteen Carson Williams. Who you want to touch on,

404
00:29:21.200 --> 00:29:23.559
Nate. Interesting group on a couple
of fronts for me, Matt, Like

405
00:29:23.599 --> 00:29:29.640
you mentioned two guys in here that
we actually traded away in our I'm not

406
00:29:29.680 --> 00:29:33.839
taking the hour on that yet,
but it's having a great year. Yeah,

407
00:29:33.839 --> 00:29:36.400
he's doing all right, Harry Ford. I think in a way,

408
00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:38.480
Matt, if I remember correctly some
of the things that we kind of threw

409
00:29:38.519 --> 00:29:42.440
some doubts on or question ear least
I did. He's also kind of proving

410
00:29:42.839 --> 00:29:45.960
what we like to see in some
hitters. Right. He might not hit

411
00:29:47.000 --> 00:29:52.160
the ball the hardest, but he
is maximizing his home run potential, right

412
00:29:52.440 --> 00:29:56.440
yep, which is what we like. So sneaky little Harry Ford there at

413
00:29:56.440 --> 00:29:59.279
the front. I had asked you
how many of these guys you do,

414
00:29:59.519 --> 00:30:02.240
like, you know, going to
be every dayers? And this is where

415
00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:04.960
I think, historically for me,
at least after about the top ten or

416
00:30:06.000 --> 00:30:10.160
fifteen hitters, is where I start
to get some questions about how good I

417
00:30:10.200 --> 00:30:11.839
feel that these will be every days. But I got to ask you about

418
00:30:11.920 --> 00:30:15.839
Dylan Beaver's, you really feel that
confident that he's going to be an everyday

419
00:30:15.880 --> 00:30:19.400
outfield there, Huh, I really
do. I think you look at what

420
00:30:19.599 --> 00:30:25.759
he's done so far in his minor
league career and it's flown a little bit

421
00:30:25.839 --> 00:30:30.039
under the radar, both because he's
in a stacked system and there are lots

422
00:30:30.079 --> 00:30:34.400
of exciting prospects kind of sandwiching him
in Triple A now with Mayo and Holiday

423
00:30:34.640 --> 00:30:38.119
and Crestad and all those guys that
are kind of above him, and then

424
00:30:38.519 --> 00:30:45.880
below with the SAO and a bunch
of the draftees in Booie. But I

425
00:30:45.880 --> 00:30:49.519
don't know. I think Beaver's has
a case to be made as just as

426
00:30:49.799 --> 00:30:53.680
impressive. And we when we had
back on he was asking about kind of

427
00:30:53.680 --> 00:30:59.119
what the ideal kind of ideal hitter
profile looks like for me, and one

428
00:30:59.200 --> 00:31:02.400
of the things that we had talked
about was how often does a hit or

429
00:31:02.519 --> 00:31:03.480
hit the ball in the ground,
how much do they put it in the

430
00:31:03.519 --> 00:31:08.480
air. Beavers kind of looks like
one of the most ideal versions of it

431
00:31:08.559 --> 00:31:12.319
for me. Twenty eight percent ground
ball rates so far this year, twenty

432
00:31:12.359 --> 00:31:17.759
seven percent line drive, which is
pretty high forty four point seven percent fly

433
00:31:17.839 --> 00:31:21.519
ball. That's not super extreme.
It's not quite Andy Pies level. That

434
00:31:21.680 --> 00:31:25.200
ground ball rate kind of is.
I think that actually might be better than

435
00:31:25.319 --> 00:31:30.119
Pies's so far this year. That
I love. And the rest of his

436
00:31:30.160 --> 00:31:33.799
game is just pretty well rounded.
He gets to his homers, He's running

437
00:31:34.039 --> 00:31:37.759
almost two hundred ISO as a twenty
two year old in double A. He

438
00:31:38.359 --> 00:31:42.039
can steal a bag or two.
You know, he's got nine steals versus

439
00:31:42.079 --> 00:31:47.200
one caught stealing this year. I
just love that like well rounded production,

440
00:31:47.440 --> 00:31:51.680
and nothing about what he's doing seems
unsustainable to me. He's got a better

441
00:31:51.680 --> 00:31:55.880
than the average strikeout rate. It's
backed by a better than average swinging strike

442
00:31:55.960 --> 00:31:59.160
rate. I look at him and
I wish he hit for a little more

443
00:31:59.240 --> 00:32:01.319
power. If he hit the ball
a little bit harder, he might be

444
00:32:01.359 --> 00:32:06.359
pushing into my top ten. Right
everything else about it, I feel really

445
00:32:06.359 --> 00:32:09.599
really good at I can't say that
I've seen a ton of him playing the

446
00:32:09.640 --> 00:32:15.119
outfield, like I'm not confident that
he's a plus outfielder. When I have

447
00:32:15.240 --> 00:32:19.359
seen him out there, he looks
athletic and fast, and it feels like

448
00:32:19.400 --> 00:32:22.200
he's going to play at least average
defense. So Beaver's for me, yeah,

449
00:32:22.200 --> 00:32:25.640
I'm confident that he's a big lea
regular. I think the knock for

450
00:32:25.759 --> 00:32:30.440
me on him is, I'm not
sure there is a star level carrying tool

451
00:32:30.519 --> 00:32:36.720
here. So a great outcome for
him looks something like Brian Reynolds maybe and

452
00:32:36.799 --> 00:32:39.279
he's I'm not saying he's there yet, but that kind of shape of production

453
00:32:39.480 --> 00:32:45.920
with like teen fifteen and so steals
fifteen to twenty homers annually and just good

454
00:32:45.039 --> 00:32:49.680
across the board production. But I'm
not sure I see like the upside case

455
00:32:49.759 --> 00:32:52.759
where for like a Christian Yelich breakout
season where he is hitting a bunch of

456
00:32:52.759 --> 00:32:55.319
homers, you know what I mean? Like that thats to me like maybe

457
00:32:55.319 --> 00:32:59.920
the upside isn't quite as exciting for
Beavers. But I am very sure that

458
00:33:00.039 --> 00:33:02.880
this guy is a big league regular
who really checks a lot of boxes for

459
00:33:04.039 --> 00:33:07.480
me fair enough also too, Matt, we never even broached this. I

460
00:33:07.559 --> 00:33:10.440
think it's a lot tougher to do
this for hitters and pictures in the sense

461
00:33:10.519 --> 00:33:15.839
that there's lots of different formats and
hitting stats that get weighed and valued different

462
00:33:16.039 --> 00:33:20.759
leagues when you were putting, Is
this just kind of a generic list,

463
00:33:21.160 --> 00:33:24.359
or are you leading a certain format. No, that's a good question,

464
00:33:24.400 --> 00:33:30.519
and probably should have mentioned that at
the outset. This is for your five

465
00:33:30.559 --> 00:33:36.519
by five, so scundard categories like
roto classical league, and that comes into

466
00:33:36.519 --> 00:33:38.720
play. I mean I mentioned that
with Amador, like there's a lot that

467
00:33:38.759 --> 00:33:43.799
he doesn't do well, but his
propensity to his steal and contact ability to

468
00:33:43.880 --> 00:33:46.920
me bumps him up, whereas in
a really power focused points league he would

469
00:33:46.920 --> 00:33:51.319
not be interesting to me really at
all. In fact, I traded him

470
00:33:51.319 --> 00:33:52.799
way in one of those leagues.
But yeah, this is we're looking for

471
00:33:52.920 --> 00:33:58.119
guys that have that across the board
production, especially with as it relates to

472
00:33:58.119 --> 00:34:01.400
steals. An average did not envy
that aspect of your challenge putting a hitter

473
00:34:01.480 --> 00:34:05.559
list together. Matt, all right, should we go back to the good

474
00:34:05.599 --> 00:34:07.679
side? Yeah, I go back
to the boring pitchers again? Are interesting

475
00:34:07.760 --> 00:34:13.480
names in this next group, you
think? So fifteen I went with very

476
00:34:13.519 --> 00:34:17.079
young Marlins lefty Thomas White. Now, again, this is an a ball

477
00:34:17.159 --> 00:34:22.960
pitcher, and this is probably about
as far up I will push this sort

478
00:34:22.000 --> 00:34:28.599
of projectable hopeful, but I think
I have seen now a couple of nice

479
00:34:28.760 --> 00:34:32.920
flashes similar to what we saw in
the Spring Breakout game that I would put

480
00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:37.000
a gamble down on Thomas White in
about this range. Okay, okay,

481
00:34:37.199 --> 00:34:42.159
three big pitches, and I think
there are signs that he's learning how to

482
00:34:42.159 --> 00:34:45.880
pitch some Fourteen man, I promise
you this is the last Rocky. But

483
00:34:45.960 --> 00:34:50.559
I went with Chase Dolander. I
think he is just if you're gonna ride

484
00:34:50.599 --> 00:34:52.480
a RACKI or better Racky, he's
probably the best arm to do it.

485
00:34:52.639 --> 00:34:58.480
Thirteen I went with Caden Dana,
twelve I went with Adam Maser, and

486
00:34:58.599 --> 00:35:02.480
eleven I went with Christian Scott.
Hmmm, yep, this is an interesting

487
00:35:02.920 --> 00:35:07.239
quintech here. Yeah, it's a
little group like Scott, Maser, Kadan

488
00:35:07.320 --> 00:35:13.679
Dana. Those three guys that I
have I don't know if on early or

489
00:35:13.800 --> 00:35:16.880
have valued more highly than others,
but kind of have been on for a

490
00:35:16.920 --> 00:35:22.079
minute and don't have much of a
reason to lose my hope with them.

491
00:35:22.239 --> 00:35:27.719
I think. Yeah, so just
on that trio, I think that's a

492
00:35:27.760 --> 00:35:30.079
good segue into who I want to
talk about. Like Scott, I would

493
00:35:30.159 --> 00:35:32.840
push quite a bit higher than this, Like I think, you know,

494
00:35:34.000 --> 00:35:37.559
he's one of my favorite arms in
the minor leagues. Maser. I'm right

495
00:35:37.559 --> 00:35:43.199
there with you this. He's pushing
a top ten you know, teams pitching

496
00:35:43.239 --> 00:35:45.320
prospect. For me, I love
guys who throw strikes, and that's what

497
00:35:45.400 --> 00:35:50.360
he does. He can get better
at commanding those strikes, as we've talked

498
00:35:50.360 --> 00:35:52.719
about, but I really really like
him. I got to ask you to

499
00:35:52.760 --> 00:35:57.199
sell me on Caden Dana. I
know we've maybe touched on him a little

500
00:35:57.239 --> 00:36:00.000
bit, but he's the guy I
want you to dive into because ye from

501
00:36:00.119 --> 00:36:05.440
me, he's not sniffing my top
thirty forty arms maybe, and I know

502
00:36:05.639 --> 00:36:07.960
lots of people really love him,
and he's got at least one pitch to

503
00:36:08.000 --> 00:36:12.719
me that looks really good, but
I'm skeptical. I need to be sold

504
00:36:12.760 --> 00:36:15.000
here. What do you got?
Yeah? Watch a good bit of him,

505
00:36:15.199 --> 00:36:17.400
And then I went back and I
watched his most recent start as well,

506
00:36:17.519 --> 00:36:22.039
and I will admit that before watching
his last start, I don't know

507
00:36:22.039 --> 00:36:25.079
if he would have made my top
twenty. But here's why. Came away

508
00:36:25.159 --> 00:36:30.920
last year very impressed with his north
south game right, his ability to spot

509
00:36:30.960 --> 00:36:34.760
his fastball and play his curveball where
I don't know if calls it a slider

510
00:36:34.920 --> 00:36:37.480
off of that well and what we
were talking about at that time. A

511
00:36:37.559 --> 00:36:42.119
nineteen year old in Hi A right, and my man was logging innings and

512
00:36:42.159 --> 00:36:45.760
he's a horse, big strong.
This last start, I saw him throw

513
00:36:46.199 --> 00:36:52.039
way more sliders and two seemers sinkers. I don't know what he's calling it

514
00:36:52.079 --> 00:36:55.400
than I had in the past.
Now I think that there's still definitely some

515
00:36:55.440 --> 00:36:59.800
work to be done with those two
offerings, but I love that I saw

516
00:37:00.159 --> 00:37:02.599
him working on an east west attack. How good it gets, I'm not

517
00:37:02.679 --> 00:37:08.079
totally sure, but I feel dang
good about seeing that and riding what I

518
00:37:08.119 --> 00:37:12.320
think his horsepower is going to be. As long as the Angels don't push

519
00:37:12.400 --> 00:37:16.199
him too hard and too fast and
give him the requisite time to sharpen his

520
00:37:16.480 --> 00:37:21.639
whole arsenal, I think you'll see
swing and miss improve. And I think

521
00:37:21.639 --> 00:37:25.199
he's just on a path where he's
getting himself better for the major leagues and

522
00:37:25.280 --> 00:37:30.679
not selling out for right now production. And this is a twenty year old

523
00:37:30.800 --> 00:37:36.079
in double A and he's logging long
outings, lots of quality and quantity of

524
00:37:36.119 --> 00:37:39.119
innings, and I don't know how
much better we can get than that sort

525
00:37:39.159 --> 00:37:43.440
of bet. So is this the
outing that he had last week? Versus

526
00:37:43.440 --> 00:37:45.480
the Smokeyes, that's the when you
were diving into Yes, but it's interesting

527
00:37:45.800 --> 00:37:50.239
you say that. I mean,
that's definitely his worst outing of the year

528
00:37:50.519 --> 00:37:53.079
so far. Right, Maybe it
was statistically, but for me, that

529
00:37:53.239 --> 00:37:58.960
was the best development and developmental sense
outing I've seen from him. I love

530
00:37:59.239 --> 00:38:01.440
and I want to see young guys
like this doing things are not good at

531
00:38:01.519 --> 00:38:07.639
yet. Yeah, and there's there's
certainly something to that, like trying to

532
00:38:07.719 --> 00:38:13.079
improve your weaknesses to help build a
more well rounded arsenal and learning how to

533
00:38:13.119 --> 00:38:15.719
pitch. I think that that's valuable. We've talked about kind of the difficulties

534
00:38:15.760 --> 00:38:22.960
of how do you assess is this
a regression of skills versus willful progression of

535
00:38:23.880 --> 00:38:30.960
trying to learn something and rose nuggets
of development can be really challenging to tease

536
00:38:30.000 --> 00:38:32.800
out for me. For me,
like, I watched that start too,

537
00:38:34.159 --> 00:38:37.960
and it looked like and again maybe
this is because I went into it thinking

538
00:38:37.199 --> 00:38:43.039
why isn't this guy missing bats?
And where's the control? Like he's had

539
00:38:43.079 --> 00:38:46.079
some command issues in the past,
and up to that point this year his

540
00:38:46.199 --> 00:38:50.920
control had been pretty good, Like
he hadn't issued many walks, but then

541
00:38:51.119 --> 00:38:53.760
in three and two thirds he walks, three hits, two throws, two

542
00:38:53.840 --> 00:38:59.079
wild pitches. I came away like, oh yeah, there's the kind of

543
00:38:59.280 --> 00:39:02.599
below average control that we saw last
year and he's still not missing any bats.

544
00:39:02.960 --> 00:39:07.760
That's he might be not an appropriate
level right now. You know,

545
00:39:07.800 --> 00:39:10.519
he's up in double A as a
young twenty year old, Like the Angels

546
00:39:10.519 --> 00:39:16.400
are being really aggressive with him.
I'm less willing to blindly attribute performance like

547
00:39:16.480 --> 00:39:22.119
that to he's working on something,
and more to me, it's like he's

548
00:39:22.199 --> 00:39:25.360
not very good like he you know, if you step back from his performance

549
00:39:25.599 --> 00:39:29.800
so far, like, yes,
he's young, yes it can develop.

550
00:39:29.840 --> 00:39:34.000
There's long time still between now and
when he makes the major leagues and his

551
00:39:34.119 --> 00:39:39.079
contributing but going from less than five
innings per start so far in his career

552
00:39:39.440 --> 00:39:45.079
walking more than you would like to
see for a guy like this. I

553
00:39:45.079 --> 00:39:50.199
mean, he's run higher than ten
percent walk rates at his two longest stops

554
00:39:50.280 --> 00:39:52.599
before this year, and now he's
at sort of a league average eight percent

555
00:39:52.679 --> 00:39:57.719
after that last outing. He's not
striking guys out very much, like a

556
00:39:57.760 --> 00:40:00.920
thirteen point five percent CA minus b
be on its face to me, is

557
00:40:01.000 --> 00:40:04.880
like this is not a guy yet, Maybe he can get there. And

558
00:40:04.920 --> 00:40:07.039
maybe this is part of his progression
to get there. But yeah, Dana,

559
00:40:07.119 --> 00:40:10.159
for me is the guy on your
list that I just like, probably

560
00:40:10.159 --> 00:40:14.559
wouldn't even consider at this point.
Well, one thing is I wouldn't say

561
00:40:14.559 --> 00:40:19.039
that this is blindly doing this.
I watched all of his broadcast starts from

562
00:40:19.079 --> 00:40:21.280
last year. To me, it
makes a lot of sense that you might

563
00:40:21.320 --> 00:40:22.880
walk some more, guys might hit, a guy might have a wild pitch

564
00:40:22.880 --> 00:40:27.599
when you're working with some tools that
you're not comfortable with. My hope is

565
00:40:27.639 --> 00:40:30.960
that this story ends up very similar
to a guy in my next year that

566
00:40:31.000 --> 00:40:35.280
I'm sure we'll talk about, Cavee
Cavali, not one for one, not

567
00:40:35.360 --> 00:40:37.960
the same sort of pitchers, but
I think potentially the same sort of developmental

568
00:40:38.000 --> 00:40:43.440
story or similar. Yeah, could
be we're making guesses in the dark here

569
00:40:43.519 --> 00:40:46.199
to some extent, and we're certainly
not always going to agree. I thought

570
00:40:46.199 --> 00:40:51.440
that was in a pretty aggressive placement
for Danna what we've seen so far.

571
00:40:51.480 --> 00:40:53.199
Well, if you want to for
me, also part of this is if

572
00:40:53.199 --> 00:40:55.760
you look at it from the context
of, like, who do you want

573
00:40:55.760 --> 00:40:59.840
to bet on is going to log
some major league innings? Like I think

574
00:40:59.880 --> 00:41:04.639
you feel pretty good about Dana getting
some Major league innings to Angels and them

575
00:41:04.679 --> 00:41:08.199
staying fairly committed to him and whatever
that development in the majors may need to

576
00:41:08.199 --> 00:41:14.880
look like that might be true.
I'll just note that they're fast tracking development

577
00:41:14.920 --> 00:41:21.039
of their pictures hasn't really seemed to
pay dividends outside of maybe debt mark maybe

578
00:41:21.079 --> 00:41:23.280
maybe you know, I'm just saying, like the other guys that they've kind

579
00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:29.239
of really pushed through, They've traded
some of them in Ky Bush and Sith

580
00:41:29.280 --> 00:41:34.960
has shown flashes in the major leagues, but they pinged Bachmann pretty quickly after

581
00:41:35.000 --> 00:41:37.400
trying to push him fast. Yeah. I can't really think of anybody else

582
00:41:37.440 --> 00:41:42.599
that that's that's worked for. And
again maybe it's not to say won't work

583
00:41:42.719 --> 00:41:45.920
for Dana. Well, if horsepower, if there were horsepower grades, I

584
00:41:45.960 --> 00:41:50.800
think Dana could be like a seventy
and uh maybe with a future eighty.

585
00:41:51.000 --> 00:41:53.320
So maybe that's what you want to
hang your head on here. Horsepower,

586
00:41:53.400 --> 00:41:59.159
of course, one, What what
outcome are we hoping to get out of

587
00:41:59.159 --> 00:42:05.239
horsepower? Like sweat two hundred innings? Ok, that's interesting you say that.

588
00:42:05.320 --> 00:42:07.559
I mean, he doesn't go more
than five innings to start, you

589
00:42:07.599 --> 00:42:12.320
know, he was lugging six inning
outings fairly regular last year as a nineteen

590
00:42:12.360 --> 00:42:15.559
year old, I mean, fifty
three and a third in eleven starts.

591
00:42:15.559 --> 00:42:17.840
Like, that's less than five innings
per outing, Like it's that he's not

592
00:42:19.000 --> 00:42:22.800
some five to six for a nineteen
year old. That's a lot. You're

593
00:42:22.880 --> 00:42:28.800
you're saying horsepower and the guy through
what sixty five sixty eight innings last year,

594
00:42:28.920 --> 00:42:31.079
Like, that's not it's not horsepower. Well, you ain't gonna get

595
00:42:31.079 --> 00:42:35.599
a lot of nineteen year olds throwing
sixty some innings in high A in the

596
00:42:35.639 --> 00:42:39.079
minors. Maybe yeah, maybe it's
a like an age or level adjusted horsepower

597
00:42:39.119 --> 00:42:45.880
ranking. Sure, sure whatever future
horsepower, future horsepower into it, like

598
00:42:45.920 --> 00:42:49.800
an into it, Like all right, back over to the hitters. At

599
00:42:50.000 --> 00:42:54.480
fifteen, I'm gonna go with Chased
the Louder Guardians outfielder, fourteen another Cubby

600
00:42:54.800 --> 00:43:01.199
Matt Shaw infielder for the Cubs,
thirteen Romananthe outfielder for the Boston Red Sox,

601
00:43:01.519 --> 00:43:08.000
and twelve Owen Casey, Cubby's outfielder. And finally at number eleven,

602
00:43:08.320 --> 00:43:15.519
Jet Williams, shortstop for the New
York Metropolitans. This is an interesting group.

603
00:43:15.639 --> 00:43:17.079
I don't know, there's not like
sort of a clean theme here.

604
00:43:17.320 --> 00:43:22.599
The Louder would definitely have been higher
for me because he kind of similar to

605
00:43:22.920 --> 00:43:28.079
Beaver's, does a lot of stuff
really really well, doesn't really have a

606
00:43:28.119 --> 00:43:32.079
statistical flaw in his profile, like
strikes out thirteen percent of the time so

607
00:43:32.159 --> 00:43:35.760
far in his major in his minor
league career, walks, you know,

608
00:43:35.840 --> 00:43:39.159
better than average league average amount,
has power, hits fly balls, runs

609
00:43:39.159 --> 00:43:42.920
a bit, gets his homers,
like, there's not a lot to nitpick

610
00:43:42.960 --> 00:43:46.239
here. Weird swing finish aside,
he just is hurt all the time,

611
00:43:46.360 --> 00:43:51.559
and at this point it's like these
injuries seem to be recurring. There might

612
00:43:51.599 --> 00:43:54.840
be something underlying this that is just
going to keep happening. Maybe arguing him

613
00:43:54.880 --> 00:44:00.280
as high as like six if he
wasn't hurt, but the injury in the

614
00:44:00.360 --> 00:44:04.440
lack of kind of sustained performance because
of that knocks him down to fifteen for

615
00:44:04.519 --> 00:44:08.400
me. Matt Shaw had a great
debut after his draft year last year.

616
00:44:08.599 --> 00:44:14.880
He's this high despite being you know, a college draftee because he runs and

617
00:44:14.920 --> 00:44:17.840
I think he's pretty good at it, and everything else about him is solid

618
00:44:17.880 --> 00:44:21.840
to plus, I'm not sure he's
going to have a ton of power at

619
00:44:21.880 --> 00:44:23.599
peak. Like this isn't a guy
that you dream thirty homers on, but

620
00:44:23.800 --> 00:44:28.519
thirty forty steals I could see it. And he's got the kind of line

621
00:44:28.599 --> 00:44:34.920
drives and walks enough to get those
opportunities. Roman Anthony hasn't been as stellar

622
00:44:35.039 --> 00:44:37.360
this year as he was last year, striking out a bit more than he'd

623
00:44:37.400 --> 00:44:42.239
like to see. But remember he
is so young. This is his age

624
00:44:42.239 --> 00:44:45.880
twenty season and he's in Double A
and he's holding his own. I think

625
00:44:45.960 --> 00:44:51.320
there's power here. I'm maybe a
touch concerned about ground ball rate, like

626
00:44:51.360 --> 00:44:54.000
he's one that I wish would hit
a few more flyballs because he does have

627
00:44:54.079 --> 00:44:59.079
power to make that worth his while. But otherwise, if he can keep

628
00:44:59.119 --> 00:45:01.440
the strikeouts down and hit a few
more fly balls, he could be a

629
00:45:01.440 --> 00:45:06.679
top five guy, no problem,
Owen Casey. He's kind of similar to

630
00:45:07.199 --> 00:45:10.639
Carson Williams from the previous year,
except the power is even better and the

631
00:45:10.679 --> 00:45:15.320
strikeouts are even higher. He is
not very good on the basis. I

632
00:45:15.320 --> 00:45:17.440
wouldn't call that a strength of his
at all. But this guy's going to

633
00:45:17.559 --> 00:45:21.840
hit have seasons where he hits thirty
five or forty home runs. In the

634
00:45:21.840 --> 00:45:25.199
big leagues, it might come in
a depressed average because unlike Carson Williams,

635
00:45:25.239 --> 00:45:30.000
he hasn't really shown the ability to
get that strikeout rate under control, and

636
00:45:30.039 --> 00:45:34.679
he doesn't have a great plate discipline
like so he's not going to walk a

637
00:45:34.760 --> 00:45:37.639
lot to offset that. The other
true outcome he's going to hit homers and

638
00:45:37.679 --> 00:45:40.480
I love that. And the last
guy in this year, Jet Williams,

639
00:45:40.639 --> 00:45:46.880
whom I traded Carson Williams away for
and I still prefer because of everybody on

640
00:45:46.920 --> 00:45:52.519
this list. I think he's the
best base stealer and has maintained his pristine

641
00:45:52.639 --> 00:45:57.840
walk in strikeout ways and I think
has enough juice that it's not going to

642
00:45:57.880 --> 00:46:00.320
be We're not talking single digit home
run how we're here for Jet Williams.

643
00:46:00.440 --> 00:46:04.559
Key's a guy that when he puts
it in the air, he tries to

644
00:46:04.599 --> 00:46:07.559
pull it, and he does so
quite successfully because I think he's got really

645
00:46:07.559 --> 00:46:12.239
good barrel control. So Jet Williams, call it like low teens to twelve

646
00:46:12.280 --> 00:46:16.079
hommers annually, but I could see
fifty stolen basis a year and pretty good

647
00:46:16.119 --> 00:46:20.760
average to go with it. So
that's my next tier. Well, you

648
00:46:20.800 --> 00:46:25.599
know, I will always have to
be sold on cubs. But ow in

649
00:46:25.599 --> 00:46:29.840
case, he's a guy that I
just admittedly I haven't paid a ton of

650
00:46:29.880 --> 00:46:32.079
attention to. No, I don't
know agree or disagree with your value here

651
00:46:32.239 --> 00:46:36.840
so much here, But Matt Shaw. Yeah, everything's all good in the

652
00:46:36.840 --> 00:46:40.679
Matt Shaw world. Like, we're
not concerned about his little jump and strikeouts,

653
00:46:40.840 --> 00:46:45.639
his three twenty eight slug right now, his one two to ozero iso.

654
00:46:46.000 --> 00:46:52.000
What's his ground ball rate? Yeah, forty six percent ground his You

655
00:46:52.000 --> 00:46:57.000
know, I'm always guys with steps
and like leg kicks like him. I'm

656
00:46:57.039 --> 00:47:01.639
always wondering about timing issues and stuff
like that. So you're you're not phased

657
00:47:01.639 --> 00:47:06.280
by any of this? Huh No? And and here's why. I mean

658
00:47:06.440 --> 00:47:10.719
it's somewhat a similar story to Amador
in that I think some of this is

659
00:47:10.880 --> 00:47:15.639
babbit driven. He's running a two
fifty six babbit and given the shape of

660
00:47:15.679 --> 00:47:19.920
his production, you know, dec
number of ground balls you would expect,

661
00:47:19.960 --> 00:47:22.559
you know, more than twenty percent
line drives out of here. You like

662
00:47:22.679 --> 00:47:25.719
his forty five percent APPO for a
hitter like him. He doesn't have a

663
00:47:25.760 --> 00:47:30.239
ton of raw juice, but that
kind of APO rate is going to lead

664
00:47:30.280 --> 00:47:36.039
to higher babbit. So I think
what I'm what I'm saying is just on

665
00:47:36.119 --> 00:47:38.840
the surface here. When I see
forty five percent APPO, I see the

666
00:47:38.880 --> 00:47:44.639
bump in strikeouts, the decrease in
slug from a guy who I know has

667
00:47:44.679 --> 00:47:47.400
got like that goofy step. The
first thing I go to is timing.

668
00:47:47.599 --> 00:47:52.400
Is this guy this guy SYNCD up
or not? Yeah, And maybe there's

669
00:47:52.599 --> 00:47:58.199
something to that that he's still adjusting. But the bump in strikeout rate is

670
00:47:58.559 --> 00:48:01.800
up to twenty two percent, but
it's only an eight point five percent swing

671
00:48:01.840 --> 00:48:06.320
strike rate, So to me,
some of this is like he's trying to

672
00:48:06.480 --> 00:48:10.079
be more selective. And he's also
seen a huge uptick in his walk rate

673
00:48:10.119 --> 00:48:15.480
up to fifteen point six percent.
That's enormous at double A and even with

674
00:48:15.719 --> 00:48:19.119
a two point fifty six babbit,
which, again looking at the kind of

675
00:48:19.199 --> 00:48:22.039
hitter that he is, line drives
ground balls, hitting to the opposite field,

676
00:48:22.159 --> 00:48:25.639
all of those things should lead to
a higher than average babbeb. I

677
00:48:25.679 --> 00:48:30.599
expect him to run more like three
twenty maybe three thirty kind of babbebs at

678
00:48:30.639 --> 00:48:34.519
peak, which to me, with
a guy who's not going to strike out

679
00:48:34.559 --> 00:48:37.440
a ton, that starts to look
like a middle infielder or corner infielder who's

680
00:48:37.480 --> 00:48:40.760
going to get on base a lot
and is going to steal. And again,

681
00:48:40.920 --> 00:48:45.079
he's swiped nine bags already this year, been caught twice. He's running

682
00:48:45.440 --> 00:48:50.760
a lot. And I think that
that's like a high batting average, high

683
00:48:51.039 --> 00:48:55.400
on base, high runs and okay, power kind of bat like, you

684
00:48:55.440 --> 00:49:00.159
know, not quite the same thing, but something like a Bobashet, you

685
00:49:00.199 --> 00:49:02.519
know, lots of line drives.
You might not ever be overwhelmed by the

686
00:49:02.559 --> 00:49:07.119
power. But I think Shaw's going
to steal more than bushat so that kind

687
00:49:07.159 --> 00:49:14.039
of higher babbit running infielder that's super
valuable. And I think that he's the

688
00:49:14.119 --> 00:49:16.960
surface numbers, though they're a little
bit less than you'd hope to see a

689
00:49:17.000 --> 00:49:22.000
lot of that is like babbit bad
luck and everything else about it looks kind

690
00:49:22.000 --> 00:49:24.760
of as I expected, you know, like a well rounded contributor. Fair

691
00:49:24.840 --> 00:49:31.320
enough. All right, enough of
Cubs hitter, Let's talk about some pictures.

692
00:49:31.599 --> 00:49:37.320
Ten I went with Ret Louder the
Reds. I just think this is

693
00:49:37.400 --> 00:49:42.599
just a very solid I mean,
it's pitching speculation, so relatively speaking,

694
00:49:42.800 --> 00:49:45.760
just a solid bet. And I
just think he's a picture and he's got

695
00:49:45.920 --> 00:49:50.519
good enough stuff, nasty enough slider. You know, safe isn't bad here,

696
00:49:50.639 --> 00:49:53.559
safe doesn't mean boring. I think
there is some strikeout potential, and

697
00:49:54.000 --> 00:50:00.039
I'll hitch ride and stay committed to
some louder speculation. Nine the same story,

698
00:50:00.039 --> 00:50:04.159
but a bit of a younger guy, but Robbie Snelly know the Padres.

699
00:50:04.360 --> 00:50:07.440
It's like the young lefty. I
think he's got, you know,

700
00:50:07.599 --> 00:50:10.119
fine enough stuff. There might be
questions about with and all that at this

701
00:50:10.199 --> 00:50:14.920
juncture, but just kind of intangible
wise, like a guy that I just

702
00:50:14.920 --> 00:50:19.159
feel good about betting on and think
he's you know, I'll take this career.

703
00:50:19.920 --> 00:50:23.000
Number Eight I went with Ricky Titaman. I don't think that's a big

704
00:50:23.079 --> 00:50:28.960
shock to anyone. It's plenty big
enough stuff. Of course, health is

705
00:50:29.000 --> 00:50:32.920
the question there. Seven I went
with one of my all time favorite developmental

706
00:50:32.960 --> 00:50:38.400
stories, Kate Cavali, Who's I
think getting ready to start some rehab in

707
00:50:38.440 --> 00:50:43.000
the miners right now? And then
six did he start already? Yeah?

708
00:50:43.000 --> 00:50:45.360
I think he had one rehabouting already. No, sweet looks great, awesome,

709
00:50:45.480 --> 00:50:50.440
looking forward to the resumption of that
story. And then six another cub.

710
00:50:50.599 --> 00:50:53.800
I went with Kate Horton, who
I have been skeptical of and still

711
00:50:53.920 --> 00:50:59.840
have a little skepticism with, but
can't unsee what I've seen from him and

712
00:51:00.079 --> 00:51:04.920
feel like I thought maybe he was
just a bit of a college thrower raw

713
00:51:05.280 --> 00:51:08.199
getting by with some stuff, but
I like the signs of him being a

714
00:51:08.840 --> 00:51:13.159
good pitcher. I agree with you. Coming out of that draft, I

715
00:51:13.320 --> 00:51:17.159
was not that impressed with his college
performance and what he looked like. And

716
00:51:17.199 --> 00:51:21.239
it was numbers and he did crazy
stuff up, but just pitching wise,

717
00:51:21.280 --> 00:51:23.000
I was like, this is pretty
loose. I don't know. No,

718
00:51:23.239 --> 00:51:27.320
he won me over as well,
so I'm not going to force you to

719
00:51:27.360 --> 00:51:31.199
talk anymore about a cub here.
But going back to your workhorse metric,

720
00:51:31.440 --> 00:51:36.880
how can you live with yourself putting
Ricky Tiedeman on there is his horsepower metric

721
00:51:37.079 --> 00:51:43.639
like the donkey with a freaking tractor
strapped to its back because the guy can't

722
00:51:43.639 --> 00:51:45.920
get more than two innings at a
time. I know, I know all

723
00:51:46.000 --> 00:51:50.000
fair, and I feel all of
that. The first time I watched titum,

724
00:51:50.000 --> 00:51:52.599
ind is the only time that I
was like, this is one of

725
00:51:52.639 --> 00:51:54.519
the best pitching prospects. I got
to value him like one of the best

726
00:51:54.519 --> 00:51:58.639
pitching prospects in the land here,
I don't think there's any doubt that the

727
00:51:58.679 --> 00:52:02.760
fastball slider come Nation is capable of
putting up some really nice fantasy numbers for

728
00:52:02.840 --> 00:52:07.159
us. And you know that I
am adverse to just betting on stuff alone.

729
00:52:07.320 --> 00:52:10.480
I don't think that is with Ricky
here. And I know it's it's

730
00:52:10.519 --> 00:52:14.159
just all injury stuff is I don't
know if it's shoulder, when he's a

731
00:52:14.239 --> 00:52:17.199
hamstring whatever, he's got to stay
on the mound anywhere from three on this

732
00:52:17.280 --> 00:52:21.599
list to completely off of it.
I feel like it is totally fair.

733
00:52:21.679 --> 00:52:24.119
So it's just you want to put
some risk bucks down and and go after

734
00:52:24.199 --> 00:52:29.079
this, you know, potential fantasy
ace or something, however you want to

735
00:52:29.079 --> 00:52:31.559
phrase it. I don't know.
I just slidded Ricky eight. Felt like

736
00:52:31.639 --> 00:52:35.800
that's where I would take the risk. Yeah, I mean I was there

737
00:52:36.440 --> 00:52:42.440
pumping Daniel Espino as the yeah,
next great pitching prospect, and if you

738
00:52:42.440 --> 00:52:45.519
would have stayed on the bump,
man, dude was so unbelievably dominant.

739
00:52:45.519 --> 00:52:52.199
Man, I mean you can't deny
that. But availability is the first what

740
00:52:52.280 --> 00:52:55.320
they say for a skill, and
yeah, and this is this is one

741
00:52:55.440 --> 00:53:00.800
where I'm with you on the skills. Every time I've seen him over an

742
00:53:00.800 --> 00:53:06.480
extended outing, especially across his twenty
twenty three small samples. He threw out

743
00:53:06.519 --> 00:53:12.519
some electric outings, had some more
concerns at times, and definitely was dealing

744
00:53:12.559 --> 00:53:15.480
with some injuries, some that were
reported, some I think that weren't.

745
00:53:15.599 --> 00:53:22.440
And Tiedeman is man, it's enticing. You get why people really like the

746
00:53:22.480 --> 00:53:27.880
flat approach fastball, the slider that
has good hitters diving out of the way.

747
00:53:28.320 --> 00:53:31.639
Yeah, I mean, it's it's
pretty impressive stuff. Wise get Aspino

748
00:53:31.719 --> 00:53:37.159
flashes, you know, I it's
I'm able to stay on the mound now

749
00:53:37.199 --> 00:53:39.440
for better yeah of three years.
No, this is what I this is

750
00:53:39.679 --> 00:53:43.360
what I wrote in the piece here. You didn't need metrics to see the

751
00:53:43.360 --> 00:53:45.599
potential in the fastball slider combo from
his left arm. Slaught to know,

752
00:53:45.880 --> 00:53:50.840
with two big offerings and a physically
imposing bill, a lefty Daniel Espino as

753
00:53:50.960 --> 00:53:54.480
dream was born, unintended, unaware
there was a potential whammy of the similarity

754
00:53:54.559 --> 00:53:58.000
between the two, a struggle to
stay on the mounds. So, I

755
00:53:58.000 --> 00:54:01.239
mean, the first time I watched
him, it was like lefty Espiino esque

756
00:54:01.360 --> 00:54:05.199
dreams for me, Donald, Just
where do you want to let's alide in

757
00:54:05.239 --> 00:54:07.039
that kind of gamble, you know, yeah, I for me, it's

758
00:54:07.159 --> 00:54:12.320
just not the kind of gamble I
like to make. And I say this

759
00:54:12.360 --> 00:54:15.880
as somebody who I think maybe got
burned by that kind of guy enough,

760
00:54:15.920 --> 00:54:20.119
and I still regret one of the
major league versions of this trade that I

761
00:54:20.119 --> 00:54:25.800
did. I had drafted George Kirby
in a Dynasty startup fairly early, but

762
00:54:25.960 --> 00:54:30.440
I felt like, you know,
good price where I got him, and

763
00:54:30.480 --> 00:54:35.480
then pretty early in this would have
been twenty twenty three, so early in

764
00:54:35.480 --> 00:54:38.320
twenty twenty three, I traded Kirby
for Jake de Gram, who's like,

765
00:54:39.159 --> 00:54:44.800
I have the same thing, right
of like Kirby's great excellent Dynasty picture has

766
00:54:45.039 --> 00:54:50.119
thus far shown incredible availability and consistency. Jacob de Gram is the best picture

767
00:54:50.360 --> 00:54:52.920
that I've ever seen, and I
was like, I want some of that.

768
00:54:53.039 --> 00:54:55.840
And then immediately I think I got
like two starts out of him.

769
00:54:55.880 --> 00:54:59.039
And he was on the shelf for
the whole year, and it's been on

770
00:54:59.079 --> 00:55:01.079
the shelf for most or we'll be
on the shelf for most of this year.

771
00:55:01.119 --> 00:55:05.960
So I'm with you. It's enticing
going after that kind of upside,

772
00:55:06.039 --> 00:55:08.559
But man, it sucks when it
doesn't pan out. Catching injuries can't scare

773
00:55:08.599 --> 00:55:13.320
you too much. You've got to
just deal with it. We'll see,

774
00:55:13.360 --> 00:55:15.239
We'll see with Ricky t all right, Matt, then you loser hitters.

775
00:55:15.679 --> 00:55:22.440
All right. We're not done talking
about Cubbies yet. This might be the

776
00:55:22.599 --> 00:55:27.280
lone kind of surprise in the top
twenty five here, but I'm going with

777
00:55:27.599 --> 00:55:35.199
Moises Biasteros at number ten, the
Cubs beefy boy catcher number nine. We're

778
00:55:35.199 --> 00:55:39.679
gonna go Samuel Basseo for the Orioles, another big boy catcher, first base.

779
00:55:39.920 --> 00:55:45.320
Kobe Mayo Oriols, a sensible third
baseman but probable first baseman, comes

780
00:55:45.320 --> 00:55:52.719
in at eight for me. Arizona's
Jordan Lawler at number seven, good shortstop

781
00:55:52.800 --> 00:55:59.000
there. Number six is Cincinnati Red's
third baseman, Noelvie Marte. Biasteros and

782
00:55:59.119 --> 00:56:05.239
Bisseo are together, not by accident. They're both guys with questions about their

783
00:56:05.239 --> 00:56:09.480
ability to stick at catcher, but
have done nothing but absolutely mash in the

784
00:56:09.519 --> 00:56:16.000
minor leagues. Slightly prefer Bisseo,
even though he's mostly been a level behind

785
00:56:16.280 --> 00:56:22.239
Biasteros, because I think he's going
to get to more of the power,

786
00:56:22.440 --> 00:56:25.039
so I think he's going to hit
a few more of those polled fly balls.

787
00:56:25.239 --> 00:56:30.480
Basaye has sort of got an interesting
hitting approach where he'll hit all over

788
00:56:30.519 --> 00:56:32.679
the yard, but then when he's
really trying to crank a homer, he'll

789
00:56:32.679 --> 00:56:37.199
pull it and he'll will mash it
that way. So I just slightly prefer

790
00:56:37.599 --> 00:56:42.280
Bisseo, and the fact that he's
done it younger is another mark in his

791
00:56:42.360 --> 00:56:46.320
favor. But Bias Steros is a
great hitter, and don't let people tell

792
00:56:46.360 --> 00:56:51.039
you that he's never going to be
a major leaguer because of his physique.

793
00:56:51.119 --> 00:56:53.280
Like he's huge, no doubt,
but he looks pretty good behind the dish

794
00:56:53.320 --> 00:56:59.119
in my looks, and he's showing
really rare ability with the bat, you

795
00:56:59.159 --> 00:57:01.599
know, walking to percent of the
time, only striking out fifteen percent of

796
00:57:01.599 --> 00:57:06.519
the time as a twenty year old
in Double A, and hitting for power

797
00:57:06.760 --> 00:57:08.840
to go with it. He's even
swiped seven bases over the last couple of

798
00:57:08.920 --> 00:57:13.880
years. But he's deceptively athletic despite
his huge size. I'm a big fan.

799
00:57:14.119 --> 00:57:19.880
Toby Mayo has looked great all throughout
his minor league career, has really

800
00:57:20.239 --> 00:57:24.159
demolished at his last couple of stops. If there's one slight concern with this

801
00:57:24.519 --> 00:57:29.719
masher, it's that the strikeout rate
has ticked up a little bit this year,

802
00:57:29.880 --> 00:57:34.800
and it's at that range where you
might start to expect a greater uptick

803
00:57:35.119 --> 00:57:37.519
when he makes the majors as well. And is that going to impact what

804
00:57:37.679 --> 00:57:44.039
is kind of a mainly power only
approach, like we'll see, but mao,

805
00:57:44.360 --> 00:57:46.440
he's going to be a power hitting
masher and the corner and I think

806
00:57:46.559 --> 00:57:50.920
is going to be really good.
Jordan Lawler and Noelvie Marte. I've had

807
00:57:50.960 --> 00:57:54.239
skepticism through the years for both of
these guys, but in the last year,

808
00:57:54.559 --> 00:57:58.960
the last year in particular, this
is waiting last year heavily obviously for

809
00:57:59.000 --> 00:58:04.119
both these guys. They both made
big gains in their strikeout rates and everything

810
00:58:04.159 --> 00:58:07.000
else kind of seemed sustainable, Like
they got their swinging strike rates down to

811
00:58:07.239 --> 00:58:10.800
about league average despite being really young
for their levels. They both made it

812
00:58:10.880 --> 00:58:15.760
up to Triple A and had a
lot of success as twenty and twenty one

813
00:58:15.800 --> 00:58:20.880
year olds, and then both had
concerns this year. Noelvie Marte pede suspension

814
00:58:20.920 --> 00:58:24.960
and hamstring injury and Lawler on the
shelf, but I slightly preferred Marte.

815
00:58:25.119 --> 00:58:29.840
I think the power is going to
be a little bit better for him,

816
00:58:30.079 --> 00:58:32.079
though I could flop these guys back
and forth. Lawler, I think is

817
00:58:32.119 --> 00:58:36.039
going to steal more and hits more
balls in the air, and so I

818
00:58:36.079 --> 00:58:37.480
think it's going to get to some
of the some of the power a little

819
00:58:37.519 --> 00:58:40.719
bit more, especially to the pull
side. So of these five, I

820
00:58:40.800 --> 00:58:45.519
know you're dying to talk about more
cubbies, So no, I just dive

821
00:58:45.559 --> 00:58:47.559
right into vice there. We're not
going to do that. Look at you,

822
00:58:47.639 --> 00:58:53.440
rock question Mike gambles on a potentially
oft injured pitcher over here, while

823
00:58:53.519 --> 00:58:59.000
your number six and seven batters in
the land can't really stay on the field

824
00:58:59.079 --> 00:59:02.280
that often either. But Noelvie,
Now this is part what's a lot of

825
00:59:02.280 --> 00:59:07.119
the KEL League in twenty twenty,
right, And this is what Nouelvie was

826
00:59:07.159 --> 00:59:10.400
like by some aggressive dynasty folks,
a top ten prospect. Then the way

827
00:59:10.400 --> 00:59:15.320
out of that, I think,
and now we're back right. I'm probably

828
00:59:15.440 --> 00:59:21.199
justo biased from that season and seeing
him as a teenager compared to other hitters

829
00:59:21.400 --> 00:59:23.960
in that league at the time,
and just being really skeptical and not seeing

830
00:59:24.000 --> 00:59:28.320
it and wondering why people love this
guy so much. So, if you

831
00:59:28.400 --> 00:59:30.719
can, what's been the story over
that? Why are we back now?

832
00:59:30.719 --> 00:59:35.039
Why did he drop? And why
are we back at Noelvie being one of

833
00:59:35.119 --> 00:59:38.199
the best prospect hitters in the land. I was always really interested in Noelvie

834
00:59:38.199 --> 00:59:43.519
Marte because he was the Mariner's top
prospect for a little bit there, and

835
00:59:43.559 --> 00:59:46.920
then obviously it was the headliner in
the Luis Castillo trade over to the Reds.

836
00:59:47.079 --> 00:59:52.800
Which maybe there's something to that that
the Marrior has traded away such a

837
00:59:52.880 --> 00:59:57.440
like a big time prospect that obviously
got a cy young caliber pitcher in return.

838
00:59:57.719 --> 01:00:01.840
But it does tell you something when
the returns for teams trading away really

839
01:00:01.840 --> 01:00:07.400
good prospects, those prospects pan out
less than the ones that just graduate within

840
01:00:08.119 --> 01:00:12.000
an organization. I forget who did
the research on this. I meant to

841
01:00:12.039 --> 01:00:14.719
look it up. I made this
point the other day, and maybe there's

842
01:00:14.760 --> 01:00:17.639
some truth to that with Marte,
And I know after the Mariners traded him

843
01:00:17.679 --> 01:00:22.000
away, I was like kind of
skeptical about him, like, oh,

844
01:00:22.079 --> 01:00:25.119
maybe he's not going to succeed.
Their strikeout rates started to tick up for

845
01:00:25.159 --> 01:00:29.519
the Mariners and in Everett, and
so I was like, Okay, maybe

846
01:00:29.559 --> 01:00:30.960
this is the right guy to trade
away. He was a little better for

847
01:00:31.000 --> 01:00:35.719
the Reds in that twenty twenty two
season when he struck out less, walk

848
01:00:35.840 --> 01:00:37.599
more, hit for more power,
stole more bases, had a better clip.

849
01:00:37.639 --> 01:00:42.159
It was like just better all around. And then last year promoted to

850
01:00:42.199 --> 01:00:44.679
double A as a twenty one year
old, and then up to Triple A

851
01:00:44.679 --> 01:00:46.559
as a twenty one year old,
and then made the major leagues all as

852
01:00:46.599 --> 01:00:51.079
a twenty one year old, just
continued to perform like some of these other

853
01:00:51.119 --> 01:00:54.039
guys. The shape of his production
didn't change very much, And to me,

854
01:00:54.199 --> 01:00:59.679
that demonstrates a mastery of that of
those skills. A lot of guys

855
01:00:59.679 --> 01:01:02.559
you'll see promoted and then a lot
of their skills take a step back.

856
01:01:02.639 --> 01:01:07.159
They strike out way more, they
walkway less, that something about the shape

857
01:01:07.159 --> 01:01:10.280
of their production changes a lot.
That really wasn't happening with Marte. And

858
01:01:10.320 --> 01:01:15.400
there wasn't really like knits that you
could pick with what he was doing.

859
01:01:15.599 --> 01:01:20.639
And the major league example, he
almost passed prospect status last year and would

860
01:01:20.679 --> 01:01:24.239
have certainly had not been for the
PD suspension and injury this year because he

861
01:01:24.440 --> 01:01:28.880
got one hundred and fourteen at bats
last year, so some of this is

862
01:01:28.920 --> 01:01:31.280
cheating a little bit, but the
public numbers that we got, his max

863
01:01:31.360 --> 01:01:37.960
eve was up to almost one sixteen
one fifteen point six, his average was

864
01:01:37.079 --> 01:01:42.559
ninety one point three, and I
think his ninetieth was in the like sixty

865
01:01:42.760 --> 01:01:45.639
sixty five range, like plus to
double plus range. He hit the ball

866
01:01:45.639 --> 01:01:50.559
on the ground a bit too much
in the majors, but that hadn't really

867
01:01:50.599 --> 01:01:53.360
been an issue for him in the
past, So taken together, this looked

868
01:01:53.400 --> 01:01:59.320
like a guy who mashed the ball, didn't strike out very much even playing

869
01:01:59.559 --> 01:02:02.760
in the major leagues, had shown
at least a league average ability to walk,

870
01:02:02.840 --> 01:02:06.920
and on the Reds had started to
run more, which is something that

871
01:02:07.039 --> 01:02:08.599
I had been kind of skeptical of
because you know, he's kind of a

872
01:02:08.599 --> 01:02:14.159
bigger guy. But he was running
and being fairly successful on the bases,

873
01:02:14.239 --> 01:02:16.559
which is I think something that the
Reds like to do anyway. So he

874
01:02:16.639 --> 01:02:22.719
looked to me like a really well
rounded guy who's going to produce, except

875
01:02:22.840 --> 01:02:24.920
that maybe it's going to take him
a bit to really lean into the raw

876
01:02:24.960 --> 01:02:29.239
home run totals. But everything else
about the production to me looked great.

877
01:02:29.519 --> 01:02:34.239
Was some of this because he was
moroiding. I don't know, maybe,

878
01:02:34.360 --> 01:02:38.639
but until we see him back and
hopefully clean and back in the field,

879
01:02:38.679 --> 01:02:43.159
we can't really know that for sure. And what I saw was a debut

880
01:02:43.199 --> 01:02:46.079
where he put up a one twenty
WRC plus as a twenty one year old,

881
01:02:46.239 --> 01:02:52.760
and nothing about it looked really unsustainable
to me. So that really convinced

882
01:02:52.760 --> 01:02:57.000
me that this is a guy with
the capital G. And while Lawler might

883
01:02:57.079 --> 01:03:01.000
have some more upside with the stolen
base totals, he also every promotion that

884
01:03:01.079 --> 01:03:06.280
he's had, he's really struggled,
including in his small tiny cup of coffee

885
01:03:06.320 --> 01:03:08.480
at the Big Leagues last year.
And so when kind of splitting hairs between

886
01:03:08.480 --> 01:03:12.239
these two, I went with the
guy that I thought the production was more

887
01:03:12.360 --> 01:03:15.719
likely to come and more likely to
be sustainable. All right, Matt,

888
01:03:15.840 --> 01:03:20.400
my top five pitchers here. I
feel pretty good about these five here is

889
01:03:20.440 --> 01:03:25.079
because read van scooters number one,
not quite not quite, but number five

890
01:03:25.440 --> 01:03:29.960
I went, Now, this is
the riskiest, riskiest of the five,

891
01:03:30.320 --> 01:03:32.519
for sure, I think, but
one with white Sox, Noah Schultz,

892
01:03:32.639 --> 01:03:37.440
big young lefty. I know,
we only got what like sixty ish pro

893
01:03:37.559 --> 01:03:40.559
innings to go off of right now. But I've seen enough of the fastball

894
01:03:40.639 --> 01:03:47.239
slider combination from that angle and enough
good execution, and I've good enough strike

895
01:03:47.320 --> 01:03:51.800
throwing that I'm going to take this
gamble. I'm going to value him highly.

896
01:03:51.920 --> 01:03:55.039
For Fantasy number four, I went
with the Tigers Jackson job. I

897
01:03:55.079 --> 01:04:00.880
know we've talked a bit about him. Loved his done right ability to walk

898
01:04:00.920 --> 01:04:02.880
people last year, and I know
the walks have jumped quite a bit this

899
01:04:03.000 --> 01:04:09.039
season. Don't know if there's a
correlation between him uscles showing off some higher

900
01:04:09.159 --> 01:04:14.000
velocities, But when you just talk
about ability to execute marrying I think what

901
01:04:14.119 --> 01:04:17.800
will end up being plenty of good
enough weapons. Jackson's job is up there

902
01:04:17.840 --> 01:04:23.079
for me number three, And now, I know maybe technically he's not a

903
01:04:23.119 --> 01:04:27.559
prospect, but I think anywise he
still is. Shane Boz another just you

904
01:04:27.599 --> 01:04:30.440
know Tommy John resumption story. To
me, he was at one point my

905
01:04:30.519 --> 01:04:35.760
number one pitching prospect in the land
because of the ability to execute highbrow stuff

906
01:04:35.800 --> 01:04:41.119
we saw some of the majors.
There's nothing performance wise to make me not

907
01:04:41.199 --> 01:04:45.159
still think that about Bozz And I
did watch but his last rehab outing,

908
01:04:45.360 --> 01:04:48.280
and I don't think there's any signs
that he won't have his stuff back,

909
01:04:48.360 --> 01:04:53.119
So stick with Boz there and number
one and number two were tough, Matt,

910
01:04:53.159 --> 01:04:55.800
but I am I think this is
about as good as it gets for

911
01:04:55.880 --> 01:04:59.360
pitching prospects for us. And interchange
these two if you want. But I

912
01:04:59.599 --> 01:05:03.280
went pole Skiens number two and I
went with Andrew Paynter number one, which

913
01:05:03.320 --> 01:05:08.000
I don't think would surprise anyone who
has listening to me to talk about Andrew

914
01:05:08.000 --> 01:05:11.599
Paynter before. But I just think
what we saw from him and his double

915
01:05:11.679 --> 01:05:15.000
a run as a nineteen year old
is just exceptional. Do you want to

916
01:05:15.079 --> 01:05:19.599
use the word phenom that I'm putting
that word on what that was to me?

917
01:05:20.039 --> 01:05:26.599
Just unbelievably good stuff being used however
he wanted to. And I'm gonna

918
01:05:26.599 --> 01:05:30.760
bet on that all day whenever I
see it, whenever, however many years

919
01:05:30.760 --> 01:05:34.119
it takes to see that again,
I will always bet on that strong Top

920
01:05:34.199 --> 01:05:38.880
five for sure. Lots of names
that I really like. Andrew Painter was

921
01:05:38.920 --> 01:05:43.599
about the most exciting pitching prospect that
we've seen, that kind of ascension stuff,

922
01:05:43.719 --> 01:05:47.000
whole arsenal, so impressive schemes too. I mean what he did in

923
01:05:47.119 --> 01:05:53.159
college, his junior year was incredible
and has really just hit the ground running.

924
01:05:53.360 --> 01:05:56.239
Sitting there watching that started against the
Cubs, and I'm like, I'm

925
01:05:56.280 --> 01:05:59.840
going to put him too on a
list after this? How can I?

926
01:06:00.320 --> 01:06:02.880
How can I do that? And
I, you know whatever, waffled on

927
01:06:02.960 --> 01:06:09.199
that, but just going to give
what I thought might have been maybe like

928
01:06:09.400 --> 01:06:15.039
once in a lifetime glimpses of the
combination that Painter has with the execution of

929
01:06:15.199 --> 01:06:18.360
smaller braver bet over schemes. But
I think they're both are going to have

930
01:06:18.880 --> 01:06:23.719
very good careers health with standing.
Yeah, you know, I think Joe

931
01:06:23.800 --> 01:06:26.519
might be on the shelf with something. I'm not sure what it is.

932
01:06:26.559 --> 01:06:30.039
I don't think it's yeah, curious. But let's talk about Shane Boss.

933
01:06:30.239 --> 01:06:33.199
It's been a minute since we've seen
him in the bigs. He lost pitch

934
01:06:33.239 --> 01:06:36.800
in the big leagues in twenty twenty
two, another guy who had a pretty

935
01:06:36.800 --> 01:06:44.039
impressive rise in that began in the
Pittsburgh organization and ended in the Tampa Bay

936
01:06:44.119 --> 01:06:47.000
Ray organization. Talk to us about
what you're still betting on here. And

937
01:06:47.440 --> 01:06:51.320
by the way, I say this
partly selfishly, I saw the line on

938
01:06:51.440 --> 01:06:56.119
his last rehab start and it made
me a little bit nervous that we aren't

939
01:06:56.159 --> 01:06:59.440
getting the Shane bos of old back. But talk to me about what it

940
01:06:59.519 --> 01:07:04.239
is you like about Boz still coming
back from injury and what you think this

941
01:07:04.280 --> 01:07:09.239
can look like at peak. Yeah, Well, before Painter came along last

942
01:07:09.679 --> 01:07:14.000
three four years, Boz was the
guy I thought really good stuff, using

943
01:07:14.039 --> 01:07:15.840
it the best I've seen in the
minors. So that's hard for me to

944
01:07:15.920 --> 01:07:20.639
unsee in that value. Now Boz
is interesting because he kind of goes against

945
01:07:20.719 --> 01:07:27.239
what I like to bet on in
that his execution abilities got way better over

946
01:07:27.320 --> 01:07:30.719
his minor league development than where he
once was. And I know the Rays,

947
01:07:30.880 --> 01:07:33.840
at least from what I have gathered
and heard, like preach just throw

948
01:07:33.920 --> 01:07:36.840
strikes. But I don't think Boz
is just a strike thrower, and I

949
01:07:36.880 --> 01:07:41.760
think we saw that in major leagues
too. Like he spots the fastball I

950
01:07:41.760 --> 01:07:45.320
think very well, has great command
of that pitch, executes that very well,

951
01:07:45.320 --> 01:07:47.480
and he's able to play his other
offerings off of that. And I

952
01:07:47.480 --> 01:07:53.119
don't know, I just I don't
think, you know, execution plus stuff

953
01:07:53.360 --> 01:07:56.119
marriage can get much better than what
we've seen from Boz. And I know,

954
01:07:56.320 --> 01:07:58.760
doubting the other day, like I'm
not expecting a guy who hasn't pitched

955
01:07:58.760 --> 01:08:01.000
in like two years to just have
all the rust knocked off. But I

956
01:08:01.039 --> 01:08:04.239
think the fastball had the same sort
of teeth that it once did, so

957
01:08:04.239 --> 01:08:06.440
I'm not too concerned the stuff isn't
going to come back. You know.

958
01:08:06.480 --> 01:08:10.199
It's funny. Guys get hurt,
guys get Tommy John and then they're just

959
01:08:10.239 --> 01:08:14.199
like off of list. I see
all of a sudden their pitch grades decrease,

960
01:08:14.360 --> 01:08:16.840
Like Painter was getting seventies and now
his fastball is like a sixty on

961
01:08:16.920 --> 01:08:19.640
this Like what, like, how
how can you change your assessment of the

962
01:08:19.680 --> 01:08:24.279
skills. I don't I don't get
that. But in as confident as bozz

963
01:08:24.319 --> 01:08:27.640
as a pitching prospect as anyone,
and I don't see any reason to change

964
01:08:27.640 --> 01:08:29.600
that. All right, well,
I hope you're right. I've got him

965
01:08:29.600 --> 01:08:32.479
in a thirty teamer that my team
is in a really weird spot, and

966
01:08:32.600 --> 01:08:36.359
I'm definitely hoping that he comes back
and is good. I mean, we

967
01:08:36.399 --> 01:08:40.520
saw him what twenty one, twenty
two. He's in the uppers. He's

968
01:08:40.520 --> 01:08:44.239
striking out thirty six to forty percent
of hitters, not walking more than six

969
01:08:44.319 --> 01:08:46.319
percent. I mean that was.
Uh, folks, remember how freaking good

970
01:08:46.319 --> 01:08:48.960
he was, and I liked him
coming up. I liked him more than

971
01:08:49.000 --> 01:08:53.159
Shane McClanahan. I mean, I
know it might be splitting hairs there,

972
01:08:53.159 --> 01:08:56.079
but McClanahan came up and was one
of the best fantasy pitchers in the land

973
01:08:56.119 --> 01:08:59.680
before he went down. And I
don't see a reason why Bozz can't potentially

974
01:08:59.680 --> 01:09:01.520
get to that point either. Yeah, and you hope that you know that

975
01:09:01.600 --> 01:09:06.000
he's fresh off DJ. Yeah,
he's got a few years of performance.

976
01:09:06.039 --> 01:09:11.479
Whereas you know, and I put
ticking time bottom that elbow is going to

977
01:09:11.520 --> 01:09:14.119
go. It's something that's mentioned in
the piece as well. But the way

978
01:09:14.119 --> 01:09:16.119
that I kind of was going about
is from what I've got, you got

979
01:09:16.119 --> 01:09:19.560
about a one six shot of a
guy not getting this stuff back, not

980
01:09:19.640 --> 01:09:23.920
coming back to the same level before
Timmy John. So to me, that's

981
01:09:23.920 --> 01:09:27.319
good enough. Odds fuck it,
I'm just gonna keep valuing the same We're

982
01:09:27.359 --> 01:09:30.720
not going to bat a thousand if
I'm wrong and one out of six of

983
01:09:30.720 --> 01:09:33.039
those guys coming back, so be
it. I'll survive that, all right.

984
01:09:33.199 --> 01:09:39.239
You heard it here. It's Keen
sucks Andrew Painter for rules. No,

985
01:09:39.439 --> 01:09:43.800
that is not that the case,
Nate Handy, everybody, Okay,

986
01:09:43.960 --> 01:09:47.880
let's round out my yeah, your
top five here, rough top five.

987
01:09:48.279 --> 01:09:51.560
I don't think people are gonna be
surprised by the names. If you're counting

988
01:09:51.600 --> 01:09:56.279
down at home, you probably know
who the top five are. But I

989
01:09:56.319 --> 01:10:01.439
hope the order at least sparks some
interesting conversation. Number five Jackson Holiday of

990
01:10:01.680 --> 01:10:08.640
the Baltimore Orioles. Number four Emmanuel
Rodriguez, outfielder for the Minnesota Twins.

991
01:10:08.880 --> 01:10:15.880
Number three James Wood, outfielder for
the Washington Nationals. Number two Jayson Dominguez

992
01:10:15.159 --> 01:10:18.920
for the New York Yankees. And
number one Junior camon Aro, third baseman

993
01:10:19.119 --> 01:10:25.319
slash maybe second basement for the Tampa
Bay Rays. Now, this crew are

994
01:10:25.560 --> 01:10:29.760
just the best of the best.
I think looking at these guys, it's

995
01:10:29.840 --> 01:10:33.720
like Tommy Lee Jones recruiting the best
of the best of the best for men

996
01:10:33.800 --> 01:10:36.359
in black. Like, these guys
are all going to make the major leagues.

997
01:10:36.399 --> 01:10:40.359
They're all going to be productive major
leaguers. They're all going to be

998
01:10:40.720 --> 01:10:45.880
I think, above average major leaguers. What they've done at such young ages,

999
01:10:45.119 --> 01:10:50.399
Like the oldest of this crew is
twenty one. Now basically impossible for

1000
01:10:50.600 --> 01:10:56.239
these guys not to come up and
be useful major league contributors. The reason

1001
01:10:56.319 --> 01:11:00.640
Jackson Holiday is number five here despite
being the youngest and for many people,

1002
01:11:00.680 --> 01:11:03.119
the number one overall prospect, is
that, as I've said before, I

1003
01:11:03.159 --> 01:11:10.960
think his fantasy relevant skills are not
as conducive to the rodeo game. Like

1004
01:11:11.000 --> 01:11:14.199
I don't think he's a particularly good
based Steeler. Even though he's got decent

1005
01:11:14.319 --> 01:11:16.199
speed, I don't think he's going
to hit a lot of home runs,

1006
01:11:16.199 --> 01:11:19.399
Like he doesn't have high end exit
velos. While he hits a lot of

1007
01:11:19.439 --> 01:11:23.399
line drives, I don't think he's
going to hit a lot of flyballs,

1008
01:11:23.439 --> 01:11:27.439
and so his raw home run totals
I think might be in the ten range

1009
01:11:27.720 --> 01:11:30.239
in some of his first years.
But he's got a really good feel for

1010
01:11:30.279 --> 01:11:33.000
the strike zone. He's going to
walk, he's going to limit his strikeouts.

1011
01:11:33.039 --> 01:11:38.439
I think his small thirty or forty
at that sample in the major leagues

1012
01:11:38.520 --> 01:11:41.199
this year. Notwithstanding, he's going
to be a good hitter. It's going

1013
01:11:41.239 --> 01:11:45.720
to play up the middle. Emanuel
Rodriguez and James Wood I kind of paired

1014
01:11:45.720 --> 01:11:48.680
together, and honestly I could flip
them either way. They both have had

1015
01:11:48.760 --> 01:11:54.840
strikeout concerns. They both have prodigious
raw power, They're both fast and have

1016
01:11:55.199 --> 01:11:59.520
shown a willingness to steal. I
gave the edge here to James Wood despite

1017
01:11:59.520 --> 01:12:05.319
my abide love for Emmanuel Rodriguez,
because James Wood is showing the strikeout gains

1018
01:12:05.680 --> 01:12:10.000
and he's doing it at a level
higher while being about the same age as

1019
01:12:10.000 --> 01:12:14.560
Emmanuel Rodriguez. So the big concern
with James Wood was is he's going to

1020
01:12:14.760 --> 01:12:16.920
get those levers under control and strike
out less than thirty percent of the time.

1021
01:12:16.960 --> 01:12:19.920
He's down to nineteen percent of the
time in triple A this year.

1022
01:12:20.039 --> 01:12:25.439
That is super impressive, and everything
else about his performance continues to look super

1023
01:12:25.439 --> 01:12:29.800
exciting. Emmanuel Rodriguez, he's currently
striking out. I think at last I

1024
01:12:29.800 --> 01:12:32.960
looked it was under thirty percent,
but he's hovered at thirty percent or above

1025
01:12:33.199 --> 01:12:38.960
strikeouts at every level pretty much that
he's been. He's also walking almost that

1026
01:12:39.159 --> 01:12:43.279
much and does hit the ball in
the air the most of these guys so

1027
01:12:43.760 --> 01:12:46.640
and has great eggsy vealos as well. So I mean, I'm very convinced

1028
01:12:46.680 --> 01:12:50.479
that Emanuel Rodriguez is going to hit
for a lot of power, and he's

1029
01:12:50.520 --> 01:12:55.439
deceptively quick and is going to swipe
some bags too, So Nate knows.

1030
01:12:55.439 --> 01:12:59.479
I'm a huge fan of em Rod
Jasin Demingez. I think might be a

1031
01:12:59.520 --> 01:13:02.960
bit of a prize here. But
again, people forget how young he is.

1032
01:13:03.319 --> 01:13:08.600
He's, you know, like just
barely twenty one now, has already

1033
01:13:08.640 --> 01:13:14.640
shown success in the major leagues.
Maybe the skills and tools off the page

1034
01:13:14.720 --> 01:13:17.960
like don't jump that much. People
forget that he steals bases a lot and

1035
01:13:18.079 --> 01:13:21.479
did in the minor leagues too,
And so for me of that, like

1036
01:13:21.560 --> 01:13:26.079
grouping of four guys, you can
order them a bunch of different ways,

1037
01:13:26.079 --> 01:13:29.079
and you might change it depending on
the kind of format that you play.

1038
01:13:29.199 --> 01:13:32.119
I'm a big Jason Dimingis fan.
I think that a lot about his production

1039
01:13:32.279 --> 01:13:36.319
in the major leagues was backed up
by his underlying skills, and then his

1040
01:13:36.359 --> 01:13:41.960
propensity to steals just gives me a
little more confidence in him being a fantasy

1041
01:13:42.159 --> 01:13:45.159
kind of categories contributor going forward.
And then my number one junior, Cameronaro,

1042
01:13:45.319 --> 01:13:50.039
this guy's a freak. He's barely
twenty years old and has legit like

1043
01:13:50.199 --> 01:13:55.399
top five level power in the major
leagues. Doesn't get to all of it

1044
01:13:55.760 --> 01:13:59.359
yet, like, I would still
like to see him hit more fly balls

1045
01:13:59.479 --> 01:14:04.880
because he does good things happen,
but he's got a perfectly acceptable strikeout rate

1046
01:14:04.920 --> 01:14:08.720
over the last couple of years in
the upper miners. He doesn't walk that

1047
01:14:08.880 --> 01:14:11.239
much, and so maybe Nate likes
him a bit more because of that.

1048
01:14:11.439 --> 01:14:15.039
But I also think that that's going
to help his balls in play tick up

1049
01:14:15.159 --> 01:14:16.720
because he doesn't strike out a ton
and doesn't walk that much, so he's

1050
01:14:16.760 --> 01:14:19.640
swinging a lot, and I think
that might lead to the highest home run

1051
01:14:19.680 --> 01:14:23.520
totals of this crew. You know, this is a guy I'm not going

1052
01:14:23.560 --> 01:14:26.960
to be surprised if he turns in
forty or a fifty home run season.

1053
01:14:27.079 --> 01:14:30.079
If he starts to put the ball
in the air just a little bit more,

1054
01:14:30.199 --> 01:14:33.439
you could see that happening. So
the massive power upside, along with

1055
01:14:33.640 --> 01:14:39.920
pretty well rounded rest of his batted
ball profile has Canon Arrow in a tier

1056
01:14:39.960 --> 01:14:43.279
of zone for me, just at
this age, this level of power,

1057
01:14:43.319 --> 01:14:46.119
this level of hitting success is so
rare. I think he's going to be

1058
01:14:46.199 --> 01:14:50.800
like Raffie Devers, Austin Riley like
have seasons that put him in the MVP

1059
01:14:51.000 --> 01:14:55.479
level conversations. So Junior Canon Arrow
is my number one. We would,

1060
01:14:55.520 --> 01:15:00.960
Howiday have been five on this list
regardless of how his first little stint would

1061
01:15:00.960 --> 01:15:02.479
have went for you. Yeah,
okay, I figured it as much.

1062
01:15:02.520 --> 01:15:04.960
I love that you put Jadam too. To be honest, I don't know.

1063
01:15:05.119 --> 01:15:08.840
I might have a hard time not
putting Jadam one. Yeah, I

1064
01:15:08.840 --> 01:15:12.920
wouldn't argue with you too much,
especially because the steels like is so far

1065
01:15:13.239 --> 01:15:15.720
his favor versus if we're talking like
rodo for me for me though, like

1066
01:15:16.079 --> 01:15:21.039
having a masher who like maybe the
Rays are considering it. Second side played

1067
01:15:21.079 --> 01:15:24.880
some games there at Triple A.
I don't know if he really could do,

1068
01:15:25.000 --> 01:15:28.199
but if he's playing second base,
like talking about a forty plus homer

1069
01:15:28.239 --> 01:15:30.720
bat at second base in your Bay
League, like yeah, yeah, it's

1070
01:15:30.760 --> 01:15:38.159
fun. The story of Jadam's dynasty
value if you like sum it up into

1071
01:15:38.279 --> 01:15:41.640
like a tic tac video. To
me, it'd be like a like a

1072
01:15:41.680 --> 01:15:45.039
wife getting ready for people coming over, like frantically cleaning up in the house,

1073
01:15:45.079 --> 01:15:49.079
like just kind of losing her mind. Like you talk about a teenage

1074
01:15:49.199 --> 01:15:54.600
bat that you know folks were identifying
as a phenom or what have you,

1075
01:15:54.680 --> 01:15:58.159
And it's like his numbers at a
ball weren't that great. It's number like

1076
01:15:58.359 --> 01:16:01.760
just funny to me, the fickleness
that dynasty value can have on players like

1077
01:16:01.840 --> 01:16:04.399
this, Well, well, first
of all, could it have gone any

1078
01:16:04.439 --> 01:16:09.520
better? Could have been clean around
the house when when you're having people over

1079
01:16:09.600 --> 01:16:15.199
to Nate, they're not gendering the
housework around here? Nice, you're right.

1080
01:16:15.319 --> 01:16:20.119
Second of all, A hundred percent
agree like the wild bouncing around the

1081
01:16:20.279 --> 01:16:25.840
perceived value of performance of Domingez,
Like, it's weird to me that he's

1082
01:16:26.000 --> 01:16:29.720
so far down some less like I
think even Eric Longenhangen, who I love,

1083
01:16:29.760 --> 01:16:31.479
I think he does great work.
I think Longenhangen had him like in

1084
01:16:31.520 --> 01:16:34.960
the thirties in his top one hundred, and I was like, what fuck,

1085
01:16:35.840 --> 01:16:42.199
he's so good. And I mean, maybe he's closer to right too,

1086
01:16:42.279 --> 01:16:45.800
because I heard that the Yankees are
not going to promote him right up

1087
01:16:45.840 --> 01:16:47.640
to the to the big leagues once
he's back healthy. Yeah, I heard

1088
01:16:47.640 --> 01:16:51.000
they're going to let him work in
Scranton for a bit. But yeah,

1089
01:16:51.119 --> 01:16:56.439
I'm first things that I asked about
in the Dynasty dugout like late twenty twenty

1090
01:16:56.439 --> 01:16:59.720
two, I was like, are
we undervaluing Domingez? Because this was after

1091
01:16:59.840 --> 01:17:03.159
his I think his a ball or
Douba run rather where he was just mashing

1092
01:17:03.359 --> 01:17:08.600
but was maybe having a little bit
of babbit misfortune, and everyone was like,

1093
01:17:08.600 --> 01:17:10.479
ah, that's okay, you know, yeah, he's doing okay.

1094
01:17:10.520 --> 01:17:13.119
But I was like, under the
hood, this looks really really good.

1095
01:17:13.279 --> 01:17:16.479
And then he kind of exploded in
twenty three again like people had expected him

1096
01:17:16.520 --> 01:17:19.960
to right out of the gate.
Yeah, he's he's incredible. And I

1097
01:17:20.000 --> 01:17:25.279
think it's interesting looking at that top
group. So my top five hitters,

1098
01:17:25.520 --> 01:17:29.359
the fifth guy was a number one
overall pick out of high school. The

1099
01:17:29.439 --> 01:17:33.760
other four were all international guys,
right, and oh that's right, not

1100
01:17:33.800 --> 01:17:39.680
would not would. But I was
coming back to that just thinking about that

1101
01:17:39.800 --> 01:17:44.439
next grouping of players that I didn't
rank in the top twenty five. But

1102
01:17:44.680 --> 01:17:48.439
who has the skills to be that
like top tier? And you know,

1103
01:17:48.520 --> 01:17:55.560
I tried to talk myself into like
Claws or cell est In or even Sallas,

1104
01:17:55.560 --> 01:17:58.960
who you know, some people obviously
have way higher already. But I

1105
01:17:59.119 --> 01:18:01.600
just think the thing to end up
mattering for your performance as a hitter is

1106
01:18:01.680 --> 01:18:08.039
success at a young age versus much
older competition. The guys that get there

1107
01:18:08.279 --> 01:18:14.560
are like kind of younger super talented
high school or international level prospects that then

1108
01:18:14.640 --> 01:18:16.600
get pushed. So you want to
look for like the guys who are most

1109
01:18:16.640 --> 01:18:20.319
likely to be top five at the
end of this year or this time next

1110
01:18:20.399 --> 01:18:26.960
year that are maybe not there yet, Like maybe it is the Lorenzo's or

1111
01:18:27.279 --> 01:18:31.760
the Emerson's Aiden Miller, like these
high school guys that come up and start

1112
01:18:31.800 --> 01:18:35.840
performing at the next couple of levels. It was the thing that I was

1113
01:18:35.880 --> 01:18:39.920
I was reflecting back on, like, yeah, you want to shoot for

1114
01:18:39.960 --> 01:18:44.399
the moon. Those high upside Robert
Klea's kind of prospects are the ones to

1115
01:18:44.439 --> 01:18:47.800
go for young international bats or preps
that are getting pushed. Yeah, yeah,

1116
01:18:47.880 --> 01:18:50.800
well you know what, I want
to really look for Matt a shower

1117
01:18:51.079 --> 01:18:55.840
and watch all of this pretty boys
shit off of me because I am done

1118
01:18:55.840 --> 01:18:59.239
with this. I don't want to
do this again. To take a break,

1119
01:18:59.399 --> 01:19:02.479
this was pretty boy, I am
let's back to the other guys.

1120
01:19:02.880 --> 01:19:05.840
Respect of the guys that do this
all the time and talk about only mixed

1121
01:19:05.880 --> 01:19:10.279
league only prospects. But it's just
like, oh my god, yahn,

1122
01:19:10.359 --> 01:19:13.279
I don't own any of these guys
really, and most of my latest because

1123
01:19:13.279 --> 01:19:16.760
it's good I trained him away.
These are these are not my not my

1124
01:19:16.880 --> 01:19:24.760
prospects for the most well, I'm
gonna go take a shower. Prospects trending

1125
01:19:24.840 --> 01:19:29.000
up on fan tracks ownership. Top
of the list this week was Zebbie Matthews

1126
01:19:29.159 --> 01:19:31.840
plus five percent. Up to fourteen
percent makes a lot of sense. I

1127
01:19:31.880 --> 01:19:36.279
think Adam Mazer probably his promotion to
Triple A fueled this. But he's up

1128
01:19:36.359 --> 01:19:41.119
two and a half percent to nineteen
percent. Guy that you talked about this

1129
01:19:41.239 --> 01:19:45.680
off season, some Chandler Champlain,
getting some getting some shouts and attention.

1130
01:19:45.760 --> 01:19:48.479
He's up two and a half percent. They had a good outing last week

1131
01:19:48.560 --> 01:19:53.119
and he's doing that in Double A, right, Yeah, Felman Celestine is

1132
01:19:53.239 --> 01:19:57.399
up two percent. Oh, last
week we talked about we had Attle renaissance

1133
01:19:57.479 --> 01:20:00.159
episode. You think there might be
a Brennan Davis renaissance. He's up a

1134
01:20:00.159 --> 01:20:03.359
couple of percent, and but he
hit like five home runs this week and

1135
01:20:03.399 --> 01:20:06.399
didn't win Player of the Week for
the International League, which was interesting.

1136
01:20:06.600 --> 01:20:09.680
Yeah, I don't know a lot
of people really liked him. I was

1137
01:20:10.359 --> 01:20:14.079
kind of skeptical personally, but yeah, I was never. I was never

1138
01:20:14.159 --> 01:20:16.079
like he's a top five prospect,
But who knows. People say that he

1139
01:20:16.159 --> 01:20:19.800
wasn't healthy. I just know that
he always had a problem hitting one side

1140
01:20:19.840 --> 01:20:23.680
of the hitters. I don't remember
which. I think lefties or something who

1141
01:20:23.720 --> 01:20:27.000
was a righty who couldn't hit lefties
well, which was weird up two percent,

1142
01:20:27.239 --> 01:20:31.359
Brandon Sprote, Augustin Ramirez up another
two percent, Owen Murphy up two

1143
01:20:31.439 --> 01:20:35.960
percent, who was one of probably
my last cut for the top twenty list

1144
01:20:36.000 --> 01:20:42.199
here, and then matt Ronaldo.
Yean, I see people getting all excited

1145
01:20:42.199 --> 01:20:45.960
about and taking up He's up one
and a half percent the one hundred and

1146
01:20:45.000 --> 01:20:51.840
mileths four. Yeah. And he
must also see people suggesting that he has

1147
01:20:51.920 --> 01:20:56.920
above average command and I don't know. Out on Twitter, I cut up

1148
01:20:57.000 --> 01:20:59.840
thirty one of his pitches from one
of his outings, and I would not

1149
01:21:00.159 --> 01:21:06.520
call that above average command. I
think the big Gary Gil Hill's up up

1150
01:21:06.560 --> 01:21:11.640
a percent, which is good.
That brings his roster percentage up to one.

1151
01:21:11.920 --> 01:21:15.920
That's good for that. Besides call
there, hang on, did Matthews

1152
01:21:16.039 --> 01:21:20.840
Quinn Matthews make that list too?
Yeah, he's on you. Yeah,

1153
01:21:20.880 --> 01:21:25.640
he's been like on this list.
I think most of the time, you

1154
01:21:25.680 --> 01:21:29.520
know, half a percent every week
or so. Climbing a little bit.

1155
01:21:29.520 --> 01:21:32.439
It wasn't huge, but maybe that'll
change next week. Looking ahead this week,

1156
01:21:32.479 --> 01:21:35.640
I should mention we're not going to
have an episode next week. The

1157
01:21:35.680 --> 01:21:40.079
holiday and our schedules just started sninking
up, so we'll be back in two

1158
01:21:40.119 --> 01:21:43.439
weeks. But I think that'll be
nice. I think we're kind of at

1159
01:21:43.479 --> 01:21:46.039
a point where kind of all the
big names at the beginning of the year

1160
01:21:46.159 --> 01:21:50.319
sitting on some rosters, and people
might be a little less inclined to pick

1161
01:21:50.439 --> 01:21:54.520
up some new pop ups, if
you will. But I've got a little

1162
01:21:54.520 --> 01:21:58.600
cachet of hitters and pitchers I've been
keeping an eye on that maybe didn't get

1163
01:21:58.640 --> 01:22:00.399
off to the greatest start, but
might be worth a worth of luck.

1164
01:22:00.560 --> 01:22:05.800
But looking ahead to this week's minor
league Action International League, I don't know.

1165
01:22:06.119 --> 01:22:13.399
Maybe Indianapolis at Iowa. See if
Brendan Davis keeps it up and PJ.

1166
01:22:13.560 --> 01:22:17.079
Murray's he does nothing the many he
has like a huge week every three

1167
01:22:17.119 --> 01:22:21.840
weeks in the PCL at El Paso
see now in case he's Schmidt and Company.

1168
01:22:21.880 --> 01:22:27.000
Sacramento has got a pretty good lineup
against Maser Eastern League. Maybe Richmond

1169
01:22:27.159 --> 01:22:30.000
at Booie. I don't know.
I've been watching some Victor Barracotto and I

1170
01:22:30.039 --> 01:22:34.079
know his numbers are not there,
but don't like really see anything bad happening

1171
01:22:34.079 --> 01:22:38.279
on his bats except for just not
getting hits. I've been keeping an eye

1172
01:22:38.319 --> 01:22:41.760
on Cam Weston. He's striking out
a bunch of guys. Still see if

1173
01:22:41.760 --> 01:22:45.800
anyone from Aberdeen gets called up this
week. Southern League. I gotta go

1174
01:22:45.800 --> 01:22:48.680
with Birmingham at Biloxi. I want
to see Schultz double a debut. How

1175
01:22:48.720 --> 01:22:55.359
that goes. Texas League San Antonio
has got Wichita maybe uh yeah. I

1176
01:22:55.439 --> 01:22:59.760
watched some snowing and others. That
would be Zebbi's third double a start in

1177
01:22:59.800 --> 01:23:03.239
this sal League. Jersey Shore at
Aberdeen. Pineda had another good week.

1178
01:23:03.960 --> 01:23:10.000
Watch some more, maybe some Aldegari
versus those Aberdeen bats which we've seen before,

1179
01:23:10.039 --> 01:23:12.800
We've seen him dominate them before.
Let's see if he backside up.

1180
01:23:12.920 --> 01:23:17.119
Midwest League West Michigan's at Lake County
Matt that should be a good one to

1181
01:23:17.199 --> 01:23:20.800
see ham if he's not promoted.
Versus our boys, Mooney and Capus.

1182
01:23:23.079 --> 01:23:27.920
You see what Nate Furman has been
hot, their leadoff hitter a really good

1183
01:23:27.960 --> 01:23:30.880
week. Yeah yeah, and you
know who also had a really Good League

1184
01:23:30.119 --> 01:23:34.199
week is my Tigers B side bat. Luke Gold has been doing some things.

1185
01:23:34.279 --> 01:23:39.279
He's up to like nine home runs. Yeah. Northwest League, which

1186
01:23:39.319 --> 01:23:44.199
is always slim Pickens. Maybe Spokane
at Eugene. It's the two top teams

1187
01:23:44.199 --> 01:23:47.600
in the league, Sullivan and Dolander
versus the best offense in the league.

1188
01:23:47.720 --> 01:23:51.880
Call league Modesto at Rancho. I
mean pretty much whenever those two teams play

1189
01:23:53.039 --> 01:23:56.279
each other, that's probably the most
interesting watch to me. Florida State League

1190
01:23:56.359 --> 01:24:00.039
Dunedin at Bradenton. I keep not
getting to watching some of these young Blue

1191
01:24:00.119 --> 01:24:02.960
Jay arms that I want to,
and this has got to be the week

1192
01:24:03.000 --> 01:24:08.159
to do it. With that awesome
Angle at bradon Ton and then Carolina Lee

1193
01:24:08.239 --> 01:24:15.800
Lynchburg is at Fredericksburg. Fredericksburg broadcast
shares velocity. So maybe that tugboat outing

1194
01:24:15.920 --> 01:24:18.680
will be an interesting one to watch
with a gun that could be really interesting.

1195
01:24:18.720 --> 01:24:20.479
So yeah, I don't know,
Matt. I think that'll do it

1196
01:24:20.520 --> 01:24:28.039
for episode thirty four of the Well
the Pretty Boy Podcast, Pretty Boy Podcast,

1197
01:24:28.199 --> 01:24:30.840
we need to change the podcast name
for a week. Yeah, maybe

1198
01:24:31.119 --> 01:24:33.560
maybe I don't like it. I
don't want to do this again, Matt

1199
01:24:33.560 --> 01:24:39.359
at least maybe not for another year. Sounds good. All right, well,

1200
01:24:39.399 --> 01:24:42.520
we'll let Chicago farmer take us out, be well, and we will

1201
01:24:42.560 --> 01:24:46.760
talk to you again in two weeks
later, half miles an hour, riding

1202
01:24:46.960 --> 01:24:54.720
too his head. You hop it
down first with the lump bonus face,

1203
01:24:55.279 --> 01:25:03.479
and on the very next pitch he
up and stole second thing with greatst speed.

1204
01:25:04.640 --> 01:25:13.199
He wasn't born, He had dead
yes, uniform

