Not five miles an hour riding too his head. You hop it down first
with the lumpbonius face, and on the very next pitch he up and stole
second face with greatest speed. He wasn't born, he had yes uniform.
Welcome to the Prospect Pretty Boy Podcast. I am Nate. There's another guy
here. Excuse me if I lack a little enthusiasm for talking pretty boys.
At the very least, maybe this episode can serve as a little fretey sleep
aid for you. Esting aside, Pretty boy Rookie is joining me. Matt,
how are you, my friend? Oh? I'm pretty. I got
all dolled up. I'm wearing my tucks. Yeah, I look good,
fresh cut, fresh fade. We're in here. We're talking about the pretty
boys. We got to look pretty, so I'm ready to go. Yeah.
This is not my comfort range. But don't think. But I have
compiled the list of I don't know. I guess you could say the top
twenty pitching prospects. At least in my opinion, you have constructed similar lists
for hitters, right, that is correct? Now, would you say,
when you put your list together here, how many of these hitters do you
feel like? Really good? At their chances of being an everyday guy,
all of them, some of them, handful of them. What do you
think? Yeah, I mean, we're going to talk about the top twenty
five hitters here, and I feel really pretty strongly that all of them are
going to be regulars. Are better Like most of these guys, I think
you're gonna end up being above average, so like twelve team mixed league,
Fantasy relevant such that, like these are a guy. These are guys that
in two years, three years, whatever, depending on their timeline for some
of them, these guys are going to be your top three four round guys.
And you know, not all of them are going to pan out.
I'm going to be wrong about some of these for sure, but as we're
sitting here right now, these are the kind of twenty five guys that I
feel most confident end up as above average regulars. I don't entirely know what
your process was for this, but how hard was it to whittle it down
to twenty five names? Do you think there's another twenty five that could easily
be in here for you or was it a bit easier than that. We
talked a little bit about this before we started recording, and I'd say the
top kind of fifteen to eighteen or so of the list fell together pretty quickly,
like the names were down pretty easily, and then it was about kind
of sorting and grouping and figuring out how I prefer them within some of those
tiers. The last five names I struggled with a little bit about who to
prioritize there, and then I would say the next five names would be the
ones where it really starts to get tricky. For the most part, these
names aren't going to be surprising to people. You know. Some of them.
I'm sure I'm higher on than other public rankers, and I'm sure many
of our twelve listeners are going to disagree with me on a lot of these
picks. But for me, I think the top tier of hitters was relatively
straightforward. Now would you say that that's the same thing for the pitchers,
especially going down to twenty. No, for me, I feel pretty good
about the top two guys and everybody else I could see not working. But
on the maybe flip side of that or thin side of the coin, I
thought there were a ton of names that you can make decent argument for being
in your top twenty pitch list. Like I think Initially, I mean,
I was like, at fifty guys, I was like, Okay, all
these guys I could put in the top twenty, I think, and then
maybe the last eight or nine names got a little tougher. But I don't
know the volatility. I don't know if that's the right word. Pitching,
the way that it can, like we've talked about before, can get much
better. The way that it can fail feels a little different to me than
hitters. I think, I, like I had mentioned you prior, if
I was doing a hitter list, I think I'd have to like kind of
go the other direction. I think I'd feel really good about like a dozen
bats or fifteen bats and have lots of reasons I'd feel good about crossing the
guy off in the sense that I feel decently well that this will be an
everyday contributor that will be good for our fantasy teams, and I'd have to
fill the rest of the list the other way. I don't know if that
answer makes sense, but yeah, it makes sense, And I think that
that's one of the things about pitching that is so hard, and to be
fair, one of the reasons why I and others fade pitching actually top pitching,
because names that are just outside this list of your top twenty could easily
make a jump, and pretty quickly, within three months or a year,
you're like, that's a regular. That's going to be a guy who's a
staple of a rotation in the major leagues, and that can happen pretty fast.
And guys that were never on top twenty pitcher lists frequently end up in
the top forty arms in all of Major League Baseball at the end of the
season. And that just doesn't happen as often on the hitter side. And
so that's not to say that like there aren't such thing as pitching prospects,
you know, that old aphorism. It's more that it's easier to see a
guy go from like, oh, that's an org arm or maybe he is
a back end rotation guy. We see those guys up level for a season
or two at a time relatively often, I would say, and I mean,
I agree, like you've picked many of my favorite names from the minor
leagues in list, But at the same time, there's a whole handful of
other names that I could argue anywhere in the from ten on, you know,
what I mean, Right Like, if you got twenty five bats and
then there's the rest of the field of thousands of prospect hitters, right like,
I would bet your top twenty five lists versus the field. Now the
pitching list, I don't know, I'd probably just take the field over my
top twenty, you know what I mean. I just think that's kind of
the nature of I mean, pitching development. Like I'm going to share this
list. I think Clegg's going to put it out on the Dynasty dugout and
I wrote a little bit about this, the evolution the development of a picture.
I mean, I think the main meat of that takes place in the
majors and late twenties early thirties is kind of the peak for a lot of
pictures. Whereas I don't think hitters, I don't know if need is the
right word, but they have to get to a certain level I think a
lot quicker. So in that way, it's a very different animal I think
too. Yeah, And this time of year is a really interesting one.
We sit here recording on May twentieth, and a bunch of the guys that
have been a staple of hot prospect lists for the past year or so have
all just graduated because they were the ones that were promoted or made teams out
of camp. And so Jackson's Churio, Merrill, Colt, Keith, Colton,
Kowser, who holds me Evan Carter or why at Langford. These guys
all have graduated out and they're like have been on these lists since six months
ago or more. This is an interesting time of the year too, when
you start looking at the larger set of prospects out there, like guys are
just starting to get promoted out of a ball. On the pitching side,
we've seen some of those arms that we've identified as like, hey, these
are really interesting and now they're starting to get promoted and have success in High
A or Double A. While that hasn't quite started to happen with most hitting
prospects yet, I think it's going to start relatively soon, Like we're going
to start to see a bit more of the promotion some of the prospects we'll
talk about, and certainly the prospects that are right behind this list who as
you'll hear, I struggled with that next tier beyond the kind of top twenty
five because so many of those guys have potential to leap into this list with
graduations and with their performance. But it's a big mixing bucket, and we
still don't have enough information yet, you know, And I think that that
makes it this time. You're sort of an interesting update for prospect lists.
Generally agreed, and I think a lot of public list makers are getting ready
to put some of the some of their new updates out. And uh,
yeah, I don't know what we're your first five, last five, however
you want to say that names on your list here, Well, we're going
to start at twenty five Mariners young outfielder question mark, Lazaro Montes, twenty
four Cole Young Mariners infielder question mark. Oh, here we go. We're
just going to get twenty five Mariners here, Matt. I mean, I
wish you know that there are some number twenty three for you. Nate Handy
Adiel Amador, Colorado, Rocky's middlandfielder, probably second baseman, twenty two,
Hesson kirstad for the Baltimore Orioles outfielder twenty one, Kyle men Zardo the Cleveland
Guardians newly promoted first basement Las Montees. He's the only a ball guy that
made my top twenty five, and there were a bunch of names that I
considered here. As as I told Nate, there's a bunch of like the
kind of major League ready guys that look like regulars, you know, Brian
Ramos, Graham Paully, kind of that tier of guys that are they're interesting
hitters, but they maybe lack the upside. And then there's a bunch of
the A ball hitters like Colt Emerson, Daral Perez, Aiden Miller, like
those kinds of guys that are performing. They're really young, but they're only
doing it in A ball so far, I have questions are they going to
be able to sustain? So I picked one A ball guy, and I
picked Las Montes, and it's because the calling card is power and the question
mark for him is his contact. And so far this year he has improved
his contact and his strikeout rate so significantly that to me, he starts to
look like that actualized version of himself. So for Las Montes, the calling
cards power, it's still just at A ball, but I think when he
gets promoted to Everett, he's going to crush it and then he might not
get tested again until double A. This is just a corner outfield mashing starter
kit. Cole Young and Adaiel Amador are two of the best contact hitters in
the minors. Bring different things to the plate. Though young they are,
they have some of the lowest swing strike rates. They've been very young for
the level, so they both remain very young, and they're both in double
A. Cole Young, his batterball spray, I think is a little bit
more conducive to letting those contact skills flourish. But he's not as and Amador
this year despite running a really low BABAP and the surface numbers look bad,
but he's still getting on base. He's stealing a lot of bags more than
I thought he was going to. And I'm kind of thinking, my opinion
is that Amador is just getting a bit unlucky and some of this is just
going to work out in the wash. So this kind of soft contact ground
balls that he's hitting a few too many of, now, I don't think
that's who he is, and I think he's gonna end up adjusting with the
speed. I just put him a notch above Cole Young. Hetsin Cresad and
colemon Zardo are similar in lots of ways. They both have high home run
projection. Curestad has more raw power, Manzarto kind of similar to Cole Young,
hits the ball at better launch angles, like he's hitting a bunch of
fly balls, hitting high line drives, and has just done that since college.
That's kind of all he's done. So even though the overall ceiling pretty
similar, these guys are going to get to those home runs in slightly different
ways. Neither is really a threat on the bases, so I kind of
lump them together. Kerstad's a little older, he's had a taste of the
majors. Manzarto a little bit younger, but recent promotion as well, so
kind of both knocking on the door. And these are the oldest guys on
my list. I think, yeah, there might be one other hitter that's
close to Manzar's age, but Curestad's the oldest on the list. And some
of this is he's missed time because of injury, so he may make up
for that once he makes the major leagues. So that's my first five.
Man. I gotta say, I don't know if there's been a pretty boy
prospect more disappointing in my looks this year than amador. I just, okay,
your contact rate is high, you're not striking out a lot. What's
his strikeout rate? Did you mention that? I didn't. But over the
last two seasons, so his age twenty in age twenty one seasons between High
and Double A, it's been thirteen point three percent. Okay, he's at
seventeen point six this year and his ground ball rate is fifty eight. Matt.
I have seen just so many weeks ass swings from him, like okay,
cool, you put the bat on the ball, you have bounced it
back to the picture. I was already a bit reluctant on what his sort
of fantasy upside might be. Just not impressed. I don't understand that that
sort of hitting and what purpose that serves, Like, just swing the bat
and if you strike out over the long haul, you're gonna have more positive
outcomes than tapping it back to the picture or some soft ground ball to second
base. Like I don't know, I just don't. I don't really get
what he's doing. I'm with you, this has been sort of unquestionably outside
of one thing, a really really disappointing start to his Double A season.
But he's running a one seventy six babbit. Literally, nobody runs a babbit
that low, Like Joe Blow doesn't run a babbit that low. Right,
Well, you're not going to get a lot of hits when you hit the
ball so weakly, But that still is like it's an impossible babbitt to sustain.
I also think that we've seen him adjust before. He's a very talented
batta ball hitter, and I think that that adjustment is still in the offing,
and this is like bad surface results and potentially some bad process that we
hope he's learning from. And even with that, he's still swiped fifteen bags
this year, so he's barely on base. He's not hitting for any power.
I think his ISO is like he's got like one double or something this
year, and a lot of that is because he's making this soft content out
of the zone. His ISO right now is point zero zero nine. Yeah,
one double on the air for what is that really bad? And yet
he's just bunting, just practice bunting, just bumped every time, and he
still has I think he's taking walks, which I know you hate, but
it's still to me showing that there are some good swing decisions happening. And
some of the underlying skills remain interesting to me. Betting on, he's very
young for double A still and he's going to make an adjustment. We'll see
wrong on this, but we've seen a lot about his back to ball in
the past that makes me think a lot of this is an operation and those
ground balls are going to turn into line drives. He's going to get hits,
get doubles, put them out of the yard. Yeah, I don't
know. I mean, we're only a couple of months, not even a
couple months into the season, But I mean I'm pressing that pumpkin button down
halfway right now. I am. I don't know if I could be any
less impressed with a hitter than Amador. All right, enough for that,
Let's get over to the good side of things here. I'm like, I'm
sure I'm probably gonna have some names that other folks wouldn't have, maybe as
high. But like I said before, I think that there's a lot more
room for placing certain kinds of bets and going after and valuing different types of
arms. This is me, Like I said, I'll have some more explanations
and tidbits out there in my piece, But number twenty. We've talked plenty
about Joandra Swarez of the Mets. I put him there, Whoop Whoop.
Nineteen I went with young Ja We are Richie who we have a very small
professional sample size of, but I was smitten with his reputation and a little
bit that I did see of I don't know, wanting to value him enough
that he could be a young and up and coming executionist that I love to
go after. I'll put a decent price tag on him. Eighteen I went
with Pirates. Well, I guess he's the top pirate on my list,
which probably go against a lot of pirate lists here. But I was a
big fan of Mike Burrows and his ascension in twenty twenty two. I felt
like he and Gavin Stone had some similarities in their rise. At the time,
I wasn't sure which of the two I liked better, and of course,
as Burrows was kind of rounding into form a little bit, Tommy John
struck. But Matt. When I do pitching speculation, I like to just
treat Tommy John as just a pause button, and I don't necessarily get down
on guys or value them less. After Tommy John, I just am hoping
that the story zooms where it left off. But him and his changeup and
the way that he was looking, and I think, knocking on the big
league doors, I have remained Mike Burrows stand. At seventeen, I went
with Sean Sullivan or the Rockies, which I know is going to turn a
lot of people off. But that fastball from the left side, and that
deception, the shape of that thing, what it's doing to hitters, this
sort of tier pitchers where all of my I don't know, more confident bets
start to dwindle. I will take a ride on that Sullivan fastball and stay
a little committed to his development here. And then sixteen I went with the
very trendy hot name. But I think rightfully so Zebbie Matthews are the twins,
all right? All right? Some interesting names there, some that I
really dig I know some folks are going to want me to ask about Burrows,
but we've talked about this before. I'm kind of with you. I
really liked Burrows when he was coming up in twenty twenty two, So we're
gonna skip over talking about him. Maybe we can dive into him as he
starts his coming back from rehab, which I think should be. I haven't
really looked or heard much, but it's got to be coming fairly soon.
What I think, maybe beginning of last year, if I remember correctly,
his first or triple A start maybe you know, wasn't the greatest, but
then I thought he looked really good and at least one of them, and
then was gone, yep, yeah, I think it was a second one
that he got hurt in. Was it okay? Yeah? I am curious
to hear your argument for Sean Sullivan. Yeah, and that's fair, And
you know, I will not look down upon anyone who wants to cross a
RACKI off their list completely. But like we've talked about their system and their
their arm farm right now, and obviously I'm a bit biased. I'm a
Rockies fan, but I really am trying to not be. They have collected
talent at an unprecedented rate for them. I don't think there's ever been this
much arm talent in their system before, so I'm really didn't to necessarily like
judge them like past Rockies arm farms. I think there is positive things going
on, and they're pitching, they are catching up to some degree. They've
got a pitching lab and from all the way from from what I can see
a ball to the majors, I think there are good things happening. I
like what some of their major league arms are doing right now. I think
they've all taken developmental steps, and with the attrition of arm health that perhaps
an unprecedented rate, there is a possibility that a Rockies arm or two can
help our fantasy squads. I don't know. I'm trying to navigate that the
best I can. But with Sullivan in particular, I think about Cody Bradford,
some Matt and how he's got a softer left handed fastball that is really
effective. And I'm not saying that the fastballs are one for ones here,
but after about I don't know, fifteen fourteen on my list, I think
the glab gets way bitter. There are less sort of whole packages, if
you will, flashing what I want to bet on. So I was just
kind of then attaching myself to maybe one particular skill that I really want to
commit to, and for me, it's Sullivan and that fastball, and I
think he's just in Hia right now. It's a tough place to pitch,
but I think we're seeing what that fastball can do, and if that's the
rudder to his development, I think I kind of want to take that run.
Yeah, And we talked a couple episodes ago about how many of the
Rockies pitching prospects were actually showing out really, really well, whether that be
in Spokane like Sullivan or in Hartford Palmquist, who we've talked about quite a
bit. I think there's a few guys that you can make the case for
as the top Rockies pitching prospect and not get laughed out of a room.
Right, these are real arms and Sullivan, you know, he's a second
rounder out of wake Forest, which is a pitching factory, so there's certainly
some interest there. And he's had a great start to his professional career.
I mean love the low walk totals like that is really really exciting to see,
and he's getting lots of whiffs and not just on his fastball. I
think some of the off speed plays pretty well too. And the fastball is
very i mean, it's slaps very different. Just watching on video, it's
just it's a different look, different deception, a different release, and I
think a different movement profile. Like my hitters list, it's just it's hard
for me to really get behind a guy when the track record is still pretty
short. And sure, they've only made it to high A as we've seen,
and we've talked about double as really where prospects start to cut their teeth
and the drop off to double A can be big, right, it should
be a big drop. And I'm not saying that that's true of Sullivan,
just for me, it's a question mark for a guy that had such kind
of a short professional track record up to this point, I will admit,
and I think if folks look at my list, I'm I'm pretty picky.
I will cross a guy off because I don't like his headwhack. You know,
I think for the most part, it's worked fairly well for me.
So this might be a little bit of a risky call. But if you're
going to ride a Rockies arm, it might be wise to ride one where
the juice is the fastball and not breaking stuff necessarily. So and you know,
I'm thinking long haul here, Matt, you know, like our eight
year draft and Hold pitching league that we did, Like I'm trying to think
about eight years from now. I'm trying to think about what this guy's career
will look like I'm trying to think about the skills that they may or may
not have to survive the attrition and survive long enough in the bigs, make
enough good big league pitches to get to that their late twenties their early thirties.
Yeah, And that again is something that I think we forget about with
prospects and in dynasty when you're looking at these guys like you aren't brostering prospects
because you want them to be good next year. Your rostering prospects if you're
in a rebuild, for example, so that they're going to be good in
three years or two years or longer. Tricky with pitchers like you're talk about,
you know, with Brandon fo or Gavin Stone or some of these other
guys that looked great in the minors and then had a significant adjustment to the
big leagues and sure look pretty good. Sure, And I get And I'm
not saying we need to think about, oh, which arm, which hitter
or whatever that I'm going to put on my roster for eight years, because
the reality of that happening is is slim. Five years into a new league
and I have one player left from that initial draft you know, and I
feel like I'm stubborn, but I do feel like when we put lists together
like that, that's, in my belief, that's how we should be looking
at these players, looking at their careers, not the short term. Yep.
All right, back over to the athlete side. Starting at number,
We're going to go with Orioles outfielder Dylan Beaver's number nineteen. We're gonna go
with Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andy Payes number eighteen. We're gonna go Pete Crow,
Armstrong Maybee's centerfielder, number seventeen, Mariners catching prospect Harry Ford, and
number sixteen Tampa Bay Ray's shortstop prospect Carson Williams. Now, this is an
interesting group. Some that I've been skeptical of before this season. We talked
about a couple of these guys in an off season episode, and some that
I've kind of stumped for for a while. Dylan Beavers is I think my
kind of prospect, and that he does everything well and doesn't have a standout
specific tool. He strikes out better than average amount, he walks more than
average, He swipes bags and has power and I think can get to it.
He's sort of like quietly under the radar good at all of these things,
and I find that those players often litter my rosters, especially in ROTO,
because I like having a baseline of skills across the board rather than guys
who excel in one specific category. So Dylan Bieber's I think fits that to
a t, and he's done at high and double A at young for a
level twenty one and twenty two. Andy Pies. I was way on last
year when we did the Dynasty dugout initial draft. I think I drafted all
major leaguers, so I was like, I'm competing out of the fourteenth draft
slot, so the last pick in the draft, and I was like,
I'm competing, and so I waited on all of my prospects, but I
felt like I picked some good ones. And my third prospect that I picked
that year was Andy Pies because I am a huge believer in guys that do
things well at the extremes and his trick his one weird trick and doctors will
hate him that he hits everything in the air and he has the power to
make that work. He's hit the ground running for the Dodgers already. But
I think that even though his exit the velocities are more good than great.
He's going to be a great power asset for a really long time because he
has great plate discipline and he hits the ball in the air all the time.
And I love that PCA similar player in a lot of ways. The
exit velocities aren't outstanding, but he's going to play all the time because he's
got plays really really great defense and he hits a lot of flyballs. So
even though some of the exit velocity stuff and the plate discipline stuff is not
as good for PCA as it is for any of these other guys in this
grouping strikes out a bit more, walks a bit less, but he's got
that defensive floor, so he's going to get plate appearances and that is king.
And he's fast enough to steal bags. He's shown a propensity to steal,
which it matters, and that's something again that I think we'll come back
to for some other guys that maybe have better speed but aren't as good at
stealing bags. And I think he's going to get to his home runs because
he hits fly balls and he's going to play at Rikley harry Ford maybe my
highest riser when I was doing this prospect list for me coming into the season,
he was like in the sixty seventy range, and I had expressed some
skepticism about how his power was going to play at double A, especially in
Arkansas where the park is pretty unfavorable for power. That whole Texas League has
a bunch of parks that aren't particularly good for power. And it's been super
impressive. He has not missed a beat. Like his lines from last year
and this year look so similar. He's hitting home runs at about the same
rate. He is walking at about the same rate. He's striking out at
about the same rate. He's doing this while he's a catcher and is twenty
one years old. That is really impressive. That he has advanced to a
harder, a worse ballpark, a much more difficult league, has it missed
a beat at all. I am super buying that this is just like the
plate skills that he's known for, you know, walking and not striking out
very much are going to help boy his profile kind of no matter what the
other contexts. And for me, he's kind of cemented himself. I'm still
not sure he's going to be a catcher hit or miss in my looks,
and I've watched quite a bit of that Arkansas team, and so that's maybe
still a knit to pick for him, But everything else about it has looked
pretty good, down to him stealing bases, which, again at the catcher
position, that can be a big leg up. And the last guy in
this group is another one that I've been somewhat skeptical of, Carson Williams shortstop,
and my skepticism for him has been his contact ability. He's run strikeout
rates north of thirty percent for most of his minor league career, but he's
done so while still having well above WRC plus despite being really young for the
level. I mean, he made triple A as a twenty year old last
year, and he's made the strikeout rate work because he has a lot of
power and he plays great defense. He's a plus defender at shortstop. The
plus defender still seems to be true. My looks at him this year have
looked he looks as slick and smooth as ever. The power is still there,
and most encouragingly, he's back at double A, but his strikeout rate
is way down and he remains one of the youngest players in the league.
So that's my five number twenty Beavers, nineteen Pies, eighteen PCA, seventeen
Harry Ford, and sixteen Carson Williams. Who you want to touch on,
Nate. Interesting group on a couple of fronts for me, Matt, Like
you mentioned two guys in here that we actually traded away in our I'm not
taking the hour on that yet, but it's having a great year. Yeah,
he's doing all right, Harry Ford. I think in a way,
Matt, if I remember correctly some of the things that we kind of threw
some doubts on or question ear least I did. He's also kind of proving
what we like to see in some hitters. Right. He might not hit
the ball the hardest, but he is maximizing his home run potential, right
yep, which is what we like. So sneaky little Harry Ford there at
the front. I had asked you how many of these guys you do,
like, you know, going to be every dayers? And this is where
I think, historically for me, at least after about the top ten or
fifteen hitters, is where I start to get some questions about how good I
feel that these will be every days. But I got to ask you about
Dylan Beaver's, you really feel that confident that he's going to be an everyday
outfield there, Huh, I really do. I think you look at what
he's done so far in his minor league career and it's flown a little bit
under the radar, both because he's in a stacked system and there are lots
of exciting prospects kind of sandwiching him in Triple A now with Mayo and Holiday
and Crestad and all those guys that are kind of above him, and then
below with the SAO and a bunch of the draftees in Booie. But I
don't know. I think Beaver's has a case to be made as just as
impressive. And we when we had back on he was asking about kind of
what the ideal kind of ideal hitter profile looks like for me, and one
of the things that we had talked about was how often does a hit or
hit the ball in the ground, how much do they put it in the
air. Beavers kind of looks like one of the most ideal versions of it
for me. Twenty eight percent ground ball rates so far this year, twenty
seven percent line drive, which is pretty high forty four point seven percent fly
ball. That's not super extreme. It's not quite Andy Pies level. That
ground ball rate kind of is. I think that actually might be better than
Pies's so far this year. That I love. And the rest of his
game is just pretty well rounded. He gets to his homers, He's running
almost two hundred ISO as a twenty two year old in double A. He
can steal a bag or two. You know, he's got nine steals versus
one caught stealing this year. I just love that like well rounded production,
and nothing about what he's doing seems unsustainable to me. He's got a better
than the average strikeout rate. It's backed by a better than average swinging strike
rate. I look at him and I wish he hit for a little more
power. If he hit the ball a little bit harder, he might be
pushing into my top ten. Right everything else about it, I feel really
really good at I can't say that I've seen a ton of him playing the
outfield, like I'm not confident that he's a plus outfielder. When I have
seen him out there, he looks athletic and fast, and it feels like
he's going to play at least average defense. So Beaver's for me, yeah,
I'm confident that he's a big lea regular. I think the knock for
me on him is, I'm not sure there is a star level carrying tool
here. So a great outcome for him looks something like Brian Reynolds maybe and
he's I'm not saying he's there yet, but that kind of shape of production
with like teen fifteen and so steals fifteen to twenty homers annually and just good
across the board production. But I'm not sure I see like the upside case
where for like a Christian Yelich breakout season where he is hitting a bunch of
homers, you know what I mean? Like that thats to me like maybe
the upside isn't quite as exciting for Beavers. But I am very sure that
this guy is a big league regular who really checks a lot of boxes for
me fair enough also too, Matt, we never even broached this. I
think it's a lot tougher to do this for hitters and pictures in the sense
that there's lots of different formats and hitting stats that get weighed and valued different
leagues when you were putting, Is this just kind of a generic list,
or are you leading a certain format. No, that's a good question,
and probably should have mentioned that at the outset. This is for your five
by five, so scundard categories like roto classical league, and that comes into
play. I mean I mentioned that with Amador, like there's a lot that
he doesn't do well, but his propensity to his steal and contact ability to
me bumps him up, whereas in a really power focused points league he would
not be interesting to me really at all. In fact, I traded him
way in one of those leagues. But yeah, this is we're looking for
guys that have that across the board production, especially with as it relates to
steals. An average did not envy that aspect of your challenge putting a hitter
list together. Matt, all right, should we go back to the good
side? Yeah, I go back to the boring pitchers again? Are interesting
names in this next group, you think? So fifteen I went with very
young Marlins lefty Thomas White. Now, again, this is an a ball
pitcher, and this is probably about as far up I will push this sort
of projectable hopeful, but I think I have seen now a couple of nice
flashes similar to what we saw in the Spring Breakout game that I would put
a gamble down on Thomas White in about this range. Okay, okay,
three big pitches, and I think there are signs that he's learning how to
pitch some Fourteen man, I promise you this is the last Rocky. But
I went with Chase Dolander. I think he is just if you're gonna ride
a RACKI or better Racky, he's probably the best arm to do it.
Thirteen I went with Caden Dana, twelve I went with Adam Maser, and
eleven I went with Christian Scott. Hmmm, yep, this is an interesting
quintech here. Yeah, it's a little group like Scott, Maser, Kadan
Dana. Those three guys that I have I don't know if on early or
have valued more highly than others, but kind of have been on for a
minute and don't have much of a reason to lose my hope with them.
I think. Yeah, so just on that trio, I think that's a
good segue into who I want to talk about. Like Scott, I would
push quite a bit higher than this, Like I think, you know,
he's one of my favorite arms in the minor leagues. Maser. I'm right
there with you this. He's pushing a top ten you know, teams pitching
prospect. For me, I love guys who throw strikes, and that's what
he does. He can get better at commanding those strikes, as we've talked
about, but I really really like him. I got to ask you to
sell me on Caden Dana. I know we've maybe touched on him a little
bit, but he's the guy I want you to dive into because ye from
me, he's not sniffing my top thirty forty arms maybe, and I know
lots of people really love him, and he's got at least one pitch to
me that looks really good, but I'm skeptical. I need to be sold
here. What do you got? Yeah? Watch a good bit of him,
And then I went back and I watched his most recent start as well,
and I will admit that before watching his last start, I don't know
if he would have made my top twenty. But here's why. Came away
last year very impressed with his north south game right, his ability to spot
his fastball and play his curveball where I don't know if calls it a slider
off of that well and what we were talking about at that time. A
nineteen year old in Hi A right, and my man was logging innings and
he's a horse, big strong. This last start, I saw him throw
way more sliders and two seemers sinkers. I don't know what he's calling it
than I had in the past. Now I think that there's still definitely some
work to be done with those two offerings, but I love that I saw
him working on an east west attack. How good it gets, I'm not
totally sure, but I feel dang good about seeing that and riding what I
think his horsepower is going to be. As long as the Angels don't push
him too hard and too fast and give him the requisite time to sharpen his
whole arsenal, I think you'll see swing and miss improve. And I think
he's just on a path where he's getting himself better for the major leagues and
not selling out for right now production. And this is a twenty year old
in double A and he's logging long outings, lots of quality and quantity of
innings, and I don't know how much better we can get than that sort
of bet. So is this the outing that he had last week? Versus
the Smokeyes, that's the when you were diving into Yes, but it's interesting
you say that. I mean, that's definitely his worst outing of the year
so far. Right, Maybe it was statistically, but for me, that
was the best development and developmental sense outing I've seen from him. I love
and I want to see young guys like this doing things are not good at
yet. Yeah, and there's there's certainly something to that, like trying to
improve your weaknesses to help build a more well rounded arsenal and learning how to
pitch. I think that that's valuable. We've talked about kind of the difficulties
of how do you assess is this a regression of skills versus willful progression of
trying to learn something and rose nuggets of development can be really challenging to tease
out for me. For me, like, I watched that start too,
and it looked like and again maybe this is because I went into it thinking
why isn't this guy missing bats? And where's the control? Like he's had
some command issues in the past, and up to that point this year his
control had been pretty good, Like he hadn't issued many walks, but then
in three and two thirds he walks, three hits, two throws, two
wild pitches. I came away like, oh yeah, there's the kind of
below average control that we saw last year and he's still not missing any bats.
That's he might be not an appropriate level right now. You know,
he's up in double A as a young twenty year old, Like the Angels
are being really aggressive with him. I'm less willing to blindly attribute performance like
that to he's working on something, and more to me, it's like he's
not very good like he you know, if you step back from his performance
so far, like, yes, he's young, yes it can develop.
There's long time still between now and when he makes the major leagues and his
contributing but going from less than five innings per start so far in his career
walking more than you would like to see for a guy like this. I
mean, he's run higher than ten percent walk rates at his two longest stops
before this year, and now he's at sort of a league average eight percent
after that last outing. He's not striking guys out very much, like a
thirteen point five percent CA minus b be on its face to me, is
like this is not a guy yet, Maybe he can get there. And
maybe this is part of his progression to get there. But yeah, Dana,
for me is the guy on your list that I just like, probably
wouldn't even consider at this point. Well, one thing is I wouldn't say
that this is blindly doing this. I watched all of his broadcast starts from
last year. To me, it makes a lot of sense that you might
walk some more, guys might hit, a guy might have a wild pitch
when you're working with some tools that you're not comfortable with. My hope is
that this story ends up very similar to a guy in my next year that
I'm sure we'll talk about, Cavee Cavali, not one for one, not
the same sort of pitchers, but I think potentially the same sort of developmental
story or similar. Yeah, could be we're making guesses in the dark here
to some extent, and we're certainly not always going to agree. I thought
that was in a pretty aggressive placement for Danna what we've seen so far.
Well, if you want to for me, also part of this is if
you look at it from the context of, like, who do you want
to bet on is going to log some major league innings? Like I think
you feel pretty good about Dana getting some Major league innings to Angels and them
staying fairly committed to him and whatever that development in the majors may need to
look like that might be true. I'll just note that they're fast tracking development
of their pictures hasn't really seemed to pay dividends outside of maybe debt mark maybe
maybe you know, I'm just saying, like the other guys that they've kind
of really pushed through, They've traded some of them in Ky Bush and Sith
has shown flashes in the major leagues, but they pinged Bachmann pretty quickly after
trying to push him fast. Yeah. I can't really think of anybody else
that that's that's worked for. And again maybe it's not to say won't work
for Dana. Well, if horsepower, if there were horsepower grades, I
think Dana could be like a seventy and uh maybe with a future eighty.
So maybe that's what you want to hang your head on here. Horsepower,
of course, one, What what outcome are we hoping to get out of
horsepower? Like sweat two hundred innings? Ok, that's interesting you say that.
I mean, he doesn't go more than five innings to start, you
know, he was lugging six inning outings fairly regular last year as a nineteen
year old, I mean, fifty three and a third in eleven starts.
Like, that's less than five innings per outing, Like it's that he's not
some five to six for a nineteen year old. That's a lot. You're
you're saying horsepower and the guy through what sixty five sixty eight innings last year,
Like, that's not it's not horsepower. Well, you ain't gonna get
a lot of nineteen year olds throwing sixty some innings in high A in the
minors. Maybe yeah, maybe it's a like an age or level adjusted horsepower
ranking. Sure, sure whatever future horsepower, future horsepower into it, like
an into it, Like all right, back over to the hitters. At
fifteen, I'm gonna go with Chased the Louder Guardians outfielder, fourteen another Cubby
Matt Shaw infielder for the Cubs, thirteen Romananthe outfielder for the Boston Red Sox,
and twelve Owen Casey, Cubby's outfielder. And finally at number eleven,
Jet Williams, shortstop for the New York Metropolitans. This is an interesting group.
I don't know, there's not like sort of a clean theme here.
The Louder would definitely have been higher for me because he kind of similar to
Beaver's, does a lot of stuff really really well, doesn't really have a
statistical flaw in his profile, like strikes out thirteen percent of the time so
far in his major in his minor league career, walks, you know,
better than average league average amount, has power, hits fly balls, runs
a bit, gets his homers, like, there's not a lot to nitpick
here. Weird swing finish aside, he just is hurt all the time,
and at this point it's like these injuries seem to be recurring. There might
be something underlying this that is just going to keep happening. Maybe arguing him
as high as like six if he wasn't hurt, but the injury in the
lack of kind of sustained performance because of that knocks him down to fifteen for
me. Matt Shaw had a great debut after his draft year last year.
He's this high despite being you know, a college draftee because he runs and
I think he's pretty good at it, and everything else about him is solid
to plus, I'm not sure he's going to have a ton of power at
peak. Like this isn't a guy that you dream thirty homers on, but
thirty forty steals I could see it. And he's got the kind of line
drives and walks enough to get those opportunities. Roman Anthony hasn't been as stellar
this year as he was last year, striking out a bit more than he'd
like to see. But remember he is so young. This is his age
twenty season and he's in Double A and he's holding his own. I think
there's power here. I'm maybe a touch concerned about ground ball rate, like
he's one that I wish would hit a few more flyballs because he does have
power to make that worth his while. But otherwise, if he can keep
the strikeouts down and hit a few more fly balls, he could be a
top five guy, no problem, Owen Casey. He's kind of similar to
Carson Williams from the previous year, except the power is even better and the
strikeouts are even higher. He is not very good on the basis. I
wouldn't call that a strength of his at all. But this guy's going to
hit have seasons where he hits thirty five or forty home runs. In the
big leagues, it might come in a depressed average because unlike Carson Williams,
he hasn't really shown the ability to get that strikeout rate under control, and
he doesn't have a great plate discipline like so he's not going to walk a
lot to offset that. The other true outcome he's going to hit homers and
I love that. And the last guy in this year, Jet Williams,
whom I traded Carson Williams away for and I still prefer because of everybody on
this list. I think he's the best base stealer and has maintained his pristine
walk in strikeout ways and I think has enough juice that it's not going to
be We're not talking single digit home run how we're here for Jet Williams.
Key's a guy that when he puts it in the air, he tries to
pull it, and he does so quite successfully because I think he's got really
good barrel control. So Jet Williams, call it like low teens to twelve
hommers annually, but I could see fifty stolen basis a year and pretty good
average to go with it. So that's my next tier. Well, you
know, I will always have to be sold on cubs. But ow in
case, he's a guy that I just admittedly I haven't paid a ton of
attention to. No, I don't know agree or disagree with your value here
so much here, But Matt Shaw. Yeah, everything's all good in the
Matt Shaw world. Like, we're not concerned about his little jump and strikeouts,
his three twenty eight slug right now, his one two to ozero iso.
What's his ground ball rate? Yeah, forty six percent ground his You
know, I'm always guys with steps and like leg kicks like him. I'm
always wondering about timing issues and stuff like that. So you're you're not phased
by any of this? Huh No? And and here's why. I mean
it's somewhat a similar story to Amador in that I think some of this is
babbit driven. He's running a two fifty six babbit and given the shape of
his production, you know, dec number of ground balls you would expect,
you know, more than twenty percent line drives out of here. You like
his forty five percent APPO for a hitter like him. He doesn't have a
ton of raw juice, but that kind of APO rate is going to lead
to higher babbit. So I think what I'm what I'm saying is just on
the surface here. When I see forty five percent APPO, I see the
bump in strikeouts, the decrease in slug from a guy who I know has
got like that goofy step. The first thing I go to is timing.
Is this guy this guy SYNCD up or not? Yeah, And maybe there's
something to that that he's still adjusting. But the bump in strikeout rate is
up to twenty two percent, but it's only an eight point five percent swing
strike rate, So to me, some of this is like he's trying to
be more selective. And he's also seen a huge uptick in his walk rate
up to fifteen point six percent. That's enormous at double A and even with
a two point fifty six babbit, which, again looking at the kind of
hitter that he is, line drives ground balls, hitting to the opposite field,
all of those things should lead to a higher than average babbeb. I
expect him to run more like three twenty maybe three thirty kind of babbebs at
peak, which to me, with a guy who's not going to strike out
a ton, that starts to look like a middle infielder or corner infielder who's
going to get on base a lot and is going to steal. And again,
he's swiped nine bags already this year, been caught twice. He's running
a lot. And I think that that's like a high batting average, high
on base, high runs and okay, power kind of bat like, you
know, not quite the same thing, but something like a Bobashet, you
know, lots of line drives. You might not ever be overwhelmed by the
power. But I think Shaw's going to steal more than bushat so that kind
of higher babbit running infielder that's super valuable. And I think that he's the
surface numbers, though they're a little bit less than you'd hope to see a
lot of that is like babbit bad luck and everything else about it looks kind
of as I expected, you know, like a well rounded contributor. Fair
enough. All right, enough of Cubs hitter, Let's talk about some pictures.
Ten I went with Ret Louder the Reds. I just think this is
just a very solid I mean, it's pitching speculation, so relatively speaking,
just a solid bet. And I just think he's a picture and he's got
good enough stuff, nasty enough slider. You know, safe isn't bad here,
safe doesn't mean boring. I think there is some strikeout potential, and
I'll hitch ride and stay committed to some louder speculation. Nine the same story,
but a bit of a younger guy, but Robbie Snelly know the Padres.
It's like the young lefty. I think he's got, you know,
fine enough stuff. There might be questions about with and all that at this
juncture, but just kind of intangible wise, like a guy that I just
feel good about betting on and think he's you know, I'll take this career.
Number Eight I went with Ricky Titaman. I don't think that's a big
shock to anyone. It's plenty big enough stuff. Of course, health is
the question there. Seven I went with one of my all time favorite developmental
stories, Kate Cavali, Who's I think getting ready to start some rehab in
the miners right now? And then six did he start already? Yeah?
I think he had one rehabouting already. No, sweet looks great, awesome,
looking forward to the resumption of that story. And then six another cub.
I went with Kate Horton, who I have been skeptical of and still
have a little skepticism with, but can't unsee what I've seen from him and
feel like I thought maybe he was just a bit of a college thrower raw
getting by with some stuff, but I like the signs of him being a
good pitcher. I agree with you. Coming out of that draft, I
was not that impressed with his college performance and what he looked like. And
it was numbers and he did crazy stuff up, but just pitching wise,
I was like, this is pretty loose. I don't know. No,
he won me over as well, so I'm not going to force you to
talk anymore about a cub here. But going back to your workhorse metric,
how can you live with yourself putting Ricky Tiedeman on there is his horsepower metric
like the donkey with a freaking tractor strapped to its back because the guy can't
get more than two innings at a time. I know, I know all
fair, and I feel all of that. The first time I watched titum,
ind is the only time that I was like, this is one of
the best pitching prospects. I got to value him like one of the best
pitching prospects in the land here, I don't think there's any doubt that the
fastball slider come Nation is capable of putting up some really nice fantasy numbers for
us. And you know that I am adverse to just betting on stuff alone.
I don't think that is with Ricky here. And I know it's it's
just all injury stuff is I don't know if it's shoulder, when he's a
hamstring whatever, he's got to stay on the mound anywhere from three on this
list to completely off of it. I feel like it is totally fair.
So it's just you want to put some risk bucks down and and go after
this, you know, potential fantasy ace or something, however you want to
phrase it. I don't know. I just slidded Ricky eight. Felt like
that's where I would take the risk. Yeah, I mean I was there
pumping Daniel Espino as the yeah, next great pitching prospect, and if you
would have stayed on the bump, man, dude was so unbelievably dominant.
Man, I mean you can't deny that. But availability is the first what
they say for a skill, and yeah, and this is this is one
where I'm with you on the skills. Every time I've seen him over an
extended outing, especially across his twenty twenty three small samples. He threw out
some electric outings, had some more concerns at times, and definitely was dealing
with some injuries, some that were reported, some I think that weren't.
And Tiedeman is man, it's enticing. You get why people really like the
flat approach fastball, the slider that has good hitters diving out of the way.
Yeah, I mean, it's it's pretty impressive stuff. Wise get Aspino
flashes, you know, I it's I'm able to stay on the mound now
for better yeah of three years. No, this is what I this is
what I wrote in the piece here. You didn't need metrics to see the
potential in the fastball slider combo from his left arm. Slaught to know,
with two big offerings and a physically imposing bill, a lefty Daniel Espino as
dream was born, unintended, unaware there was a potential whammy of the similarity
between the two, a struggle to stay on the mounds. So, I
mean, the first time I watched him, it was like lefty Espiino esque
dreams for me, Donald, Just where do you want to let's alide in
that kind of gamble, you know, yeah, I for me, it's
just not the kind of gamble I like to make. And I say this
as somebody who I think maybe got burned by that kind of guy enough,
and I still regret one of the major league versions of this trade that I
did. I had drafted George Kirby in a Dynasty startup fairly early, but
I felt like, you know, good price where I got him, and
then pretty early in this would have been twenty twenty three, so early in
twenty twenty three, I traded Kirby for Jake de Gram, who's like,
I have the same thing, right of like Kirby's great excellent Dynasty picture has
thus far shown incredible availability and consistency. Jacob de Gram is the best picture
that I've ever seen, and I was like, I want some of that.
And then immediately I think I got like two starts out of him.
And he was on the shelf for the whole year, and it's been on
the shelf for most or we'll be on the shelf for most of this year.
So I'm with you. It's enticing going after that kind of upside,
But man, it sucks when it doesn't pan out. Catching injuries can't scare
you too much. You've got to just deal with it. We'll see,
We'll see with Ricky t all right, Matt, then you loser hitters.
All right. We're not done talking about Cubbies yet. This might be the
lone kind of surprise in the top twenty five here, but I'm going with
Moises Biasteros at number ten, the Cubs beefy boy catcher number nine. We're
gonna go Samuel Basseo for the Orioles, another big boy catcher, first base.
Kobe Mayo Oriols, a sensible third baseman but probable first baseman, comes
in at eight for me. Arizona's Jordan Lawler at number seven, good shortstop
there. Number six is Cincinnati Red's third baseman, Noelvie Marte. Biasteros and
Bisseo are together, not by accident. They're both guys with questions about their
ability to stick at catcher, but have done nothing but absolutely mash in the
minor leagues. Slightly prefer Bisseo, even though he's mostly been a level behind
Biasteros, because I think he's going to get to more of the power,
so I think he's going to hit a few more of those polled fly balls.
Basaye has sort of got an interesting hitting approach where he'll hit all over
the yard, but then when he's really trying to crank a homer, he'll
pull it and he'll will mash it that way. So I just slightly prefer
Bisseo, and the fact that he's done it younger is another mark in his
favor. But Bias Steros is a great hitter, and don't let people tell
you that he's never going to be a major leaguer because of his physique.
Like he's huge, no doubt, but he looks pretty good behind the dish
in my looks, and he's showing really rare ability with the bat, you
know, walking to percent of the time, only striking out fifteen percent of
the time as a twenty year old in Double A, and hitting for power
to go with it. He's even swiped seven bases over the last couple of
years. But he's deceptively athletic despite his huge size. I'm a big fan.
Toby Mayo has looked great all throughout his minor league career, has really
demolished at his last couple of stops. If there's one slight concern with this
masher, it's that the strikeout rate has ticked up a little bit this year,
and it's at that range where you might start to expect a greater uptick
when he makes the majors as well. And is that going to impact what
is kind of a mainly power only approach, like we'll see, but mao,
he's going to be a power hitting masher and the corner and I think
is going to be really good. Jordan Lawler and Noelvie Marte. I've had
skepticism through the years for both of these guys, but in the last year,
the last year in particular, this is waiting last year heavily obviously for
both these guys. They both made big gains in their strikeout rates and everything
else kind of seemed sustainable, Like they got their swinging strike rates down to
about league average despite being really young for their levels. They both made it
up to Triple A and had a lot of success as twenty and twenty one
year olds, and then both had concerns this year. Noelvie Marte pede suspension
and hamstring injury and Lawler on the shelf, but I slightly preferred Marte.
I think the power is going to be a little bit better for him,
though I could flop these guys back and forth. Lawler, I think is
going to steal more and hits more balls in the air, and so I
think it's going to get to some of the some of the power a little
bit more, especially to the pull side. So of these five, I
know you're dying to talk about more cubbies, So no, I just dive
right into vice there. We're not going to do that. Look at you,
rock question Mike gambles on a potentially oft injured pitcher over here, while
your number six and seven batters in the land can't really stay on the field
that often either. But Noelvie, Now this is part what's a lot of
the KEL League in twenty twenty, right, And this is what Nouelvie was
like by some aggressive dynasty folks, a top ten prospect. Then the way
out of that, I think, and now we're back right. I'm probably
justo biased from that season and seeing him as a teenager compared to other hitters
in that league at the time, and just being really skeptical and not seeing
it and wondering why people love this guy so much. So, if you
can, what's been the story over that? Why are we back now?
Why did he drop? And why are we back at Noelvie being one of
the best prospect hitters in the land. I was always really interested in Noelvie
Marte because he was the Mariner's top prospect for a little bit there, and
then obviously it was the headliner in the Luis Castillo trade over to the Reds.
Which maybe there's something to that that the Marrior has traded away such a
like a big time prospect that obviously got a cy young caliber pitcher in return.
But it does tell you something when the returns for teams trading away really
good prospects, those prospects pan out less than the ones that just graduate within
an organization. I forget who did the research on this. I meant to
look it up. I made this point the other day, and maybe there's
some truth to that with Marte, And I know after the Mariners traded him
away, I was like kind of skeptical about him, like, oh,
maybe he's not going to succeed. Their strikeout rates started to tick up for
the Mariners and in Everett, and so I was like, Okay, maybe
this is the right guy to trade away. He was a little better for
the Reds in that twenty twenty two season when he struck out less, walk
more, hit for more power, stole more bases, had a better clip.
It was like just better all around. And then last year promoted to
double A as a twenty one year old, and then up to Triple A
as a twenty one year old, and then made the major leagues all as
a twenty one year old, just continued to perform like some of these other
guys. The shape of his production didn't change very much, And to me,
that demonstrates a mastery of that of those skills. A lot of guys
you'll see promoted and then a lot of their skills take a step back.
They strike out way more, they walkway less, that something about the shape
of their production changes a lot. That really wasn't happening with Marte. And
there wasn't really like knits that you could pick with what he was doing.
And the major league example, he almost passed prospect status last year and would
have certainly had not been for the PD suspension and injury this year because he
got one hundred and fourteen at bats last year, so some of this is
cheating a little bit, but the public numbers that we got, his max
eve was up to almost one sixteen one fifteen point six, his average was
ninety one point three, and I think his ninetieth was in the like sixty
sixty five range, like plus to double plus range. He hit the ball
on the ground a bit too much in the majors, but that hadn't really
been an issue for him in the past, So taken together, this looked
like a guy who mashed the ball, didn't strike out very much even playing
in the major leagues, had shown at least a league average ability to walk,
and on the Reds had started to run more, which is something that
I had been kind of skeptical of because you know, he's kind of a
bigger guy. But he was running and being fairly successful on the bases,
which is I think something that the Reds like to do anyway. So he
looked to me like a really well rounded guy who's going to produce, except
that maybe it's going to take him a bit to really lean into the raw
home run totals. But everything else about the production to me looked great.
Was some of this because he was moroiding. I don't know, maybe,
but until we see him back and hopefully clean and back in the field,
we can't really know that for sure. And what I saw was a debut
where he put up a one twenty WRC plus as a twenty one year old,
and nothing about it looked really unsustainable to me. So that really convinced
me that this is a guy with the capital G. And while Lawler might
have some more upside with the stolen base totals, he also every promotion that
he's had, he's really struggled, including in his small tiny cup of coffee
at the Big Leagues last year. And so when kind of splitting hairs between
these two, I went with the guy that I thought the production was more
likely to come and more likely to be sustainable. All right, Matt,
my top five pitchers here. I feel pretty good about these five here is
because read van scooters number one, not quite not quite, but number five
I went, Now, this is the riskiest, riskiest of the five,
for sure, I think, but one with white Sox, Noah Schultz,
big young lefty. I know, we only got what like sixty ish pro
innings to go off of right now. But I've seen enough of the fastball
slider combination from that angle and enough good execution, and I've good enough strike
throwing that I'm going to take this gamble. I'm going to value him highly.
For Fantasy number four, I went with the Tigers Jackson job. I
know we've talked a bit about him. Loved his done right ability to walk
people last year, and I know the walks have jumped quite a bit this
season. Don't know if there's a correlation between him uscles showing off some higher
velocities, But when you just talk about ability to execute marrying I think what
will end up being plenty of good enough weapons. Jackson's job is up there
for me number three, And now, I know maybe technically he's not a
prospect, but I think anywise he still is. Shane Boz another just you
know Tommy John resumption story. To me, he was at one point my
number one pitching prospect in the land because of the ability to execute highbrow stuff
we saw some of the majors. There's nothing performance wise to make me not
still think that about Bozz And I did watch but his last rehab outing,
and I don't think there's any signs that he won't have his stuff back,
So stick with Boz there and number one and number two were tough, Matt,
but I am I think this is about as good as it gets for
pitching prospects for us. And interchange these two if you want. But I
went pole Skiens number two and I went with Andrew Paynter number one, which
I don't think would surprise anyone who has listening to me to talk about Andrew
Paynter before. But I just think what we saw from him and his double
a run as a nineteen year old is just exceptional. Do you want to
use the word phenom that I'm putting that word on what that was to me?
Just unbelievably good stuff being used however he wanted to. And I'm gonna
bet on that all day whenever I see it, whenever, however many years
it takes to see that again, I will always bet on that strong Top
five for sure. Lots of names that I really like. Andrew Painter was
about the most exciting pitching prospect that we've seen, that kind of ascension stuff,
whole arsenal, so impressive schemes too. I mean what he did in
college, his junior year was incredible and has really just hit the ground running.
Sitting there watching that started against the Cubs, and I'm like, I'm
going to put him too on a list after this? How can I?
How can I do that? And I, you know whatever, waffled on
that, but just going to give what I thought might have been maybe like
once in a lifetime glimpses of the combination that Painter has with the execution of
smaller braver bet over schemes. But I think they're both are going to have
very good careers health with standing. Yeah, you know, I think Joe
might be on the shelf with something. I'm not sure what it is.
I don't think it's yeah, curious. But let's talk about Shane Boss.
It's been a minute since we've seen him in the bigs. He lost pitch
in the big leagues in twenty twenty two, another guy who had a pretty
impressive rise in that began in the Pittsburgh organization and ended in the Tampa Bay
Ray organization. Talk to us about what you're still betting on here. And
by the way, I say this partly selfishly, I saw the line on
his last rehab start and it made me a little bit nervous that we aren't
getting the Shane bos of old back. But talk to me about what it
is you like about Boz still coming back from injury and what you think this
can look like at peak. Yeah, Well, before Painter came along last
three four years, Boz was the guy I thought really good stuff, using
it the best I've seen in the minors. So that's hard for me to
unsee in that value. Now Boz is interesting because he kind of goes against
what I like to bet on in that his execution abilities got way better over
his minor league development than where he once was. And I know the Rays,
at least from what I have gathered and heard, like preach just throw
strikes. But I don't think Boz is just a strike thrower, and I
think we saw that in major leagues too. Like he spots the fastball I
think very well, has great command of that pitch, executes that very well,
and he's able to play his other offerings off of that. And I
don't know, I just I don't think, you know, execution plus stuff
marriage can get much better than what we've seen from Boz. And I know,
doubting the other day, like I'm not expecting a guy who hasn't pitched
in like two years to just have all the rust knocked off. But I
think the fastball had the same sort of teeth that it once did, so
I'm not too concerned the stuff isn't going to come back. You know.
It's funny. Guys get hurt, guys get Tommy John and then they're just
like off of list. I see all of a sudden their pitch grades decrease,
Like Painter was getting seventies and now his fastball is like a sixty on
this Like what, like, how how can you change your assessment of the
skills. I don't I don't get that. But in as confident as bozz
as a pitching prospect as anyone, and I don't see any reason to change
that. All right, well, I hope you're right. I've got him
in a thirty teamer that my team is in a really weird spot, and
I'm definitely hoping that he comes back and is good. I mean, we
saw him what twenty one, twenty two. He's in the uppers. He's
striking out thirty six to forty percent of hitters, not walking more than six
percent. I mean that was. Uh, folks, remember how freaking good
he was, and I liked him coming up. I liked him more than
Shane McClanahan. I mean, I know it might be splitting hairs there,
but McClanahan came up and was one of the best fantasy pitchers in the land
before he went down. And I don't see a reason why Bozz can't potentially
get to that point either. Yeah, and you hope that you know that
he's fresh off DJ. Yeah, he's got a few years of performance.
Whereas you know, and I put ticking time bottom that elbow is going to
go. It's something that's mentioned in the piece as well. But the way
that I kind of was going about is from what I've got, you got
about a one six shot of a guy not getting this stuff back, not
coming back to the same level before Timmy John. So to me, that's
good enough. Odds fuck it, I'm just gonna keep valuing the same We're
not going to bat a thousand if I'm wrong and one out of six of
those guys coming back, so be it. I'll survive that, all right.
You heard it here. It's Keen sucks Andrew Painter for rules. No,
that is not that the case, Nate Handy, everybody, Okay,
let's round out my yeah, your top five here, rough top five.
I don't think people are gonna be surprised by the names. If you're counting
down at home, you probably know who the top five are. But I
hope the order at least sparks some interesting conversation. Number five Jackson Holiday of
the Baltimore Orioles. Number four Emmanuel Rodriguez, outfielder for the Minnesota Twins.
Number three James Wood, outfielder for the Washington Nationals. Number two Jayson Dominguez
for the New York Yankees. And number one Junior camon Aro, third baseman
slash maybe second basement for the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, this crew are
just the best of the best. I think looking at these guys, it's
like Tommy Lee Jones recruiting the best of the best of the best for men
in black. Like, these guys are all going to make the major leagues.
They're all going to be productive major leaguers. They're all going to be
I think, above average major leaguers. What they've done at such young ages,
Like the oldest of this crew is twenty one. Now basically impossible for
these guys not to come up and be useful major league contributors. The reason
Jackson Holiday is number five here despite being the youngest and for many people,
the number one overall prospect, is that, as I've said before, I
think his fantasy relevant skills are not as conducive to the rodeo game. Like
I don't think he's a particularly good based Steeler. Even though he's got decent
speed, I don't think he's going to hit a lot of home runs,
Like he doesn't have high end exit velos. While he hits a lot of
line drives, I don't think he's going to hit a lot of flyballs,
and so his raw home run totals I think might be in the ten range
in some of his first years. But he's got a really good feel for
the strike zone. He's going to walk, he's going to limit his strikeouts.
I think his small thirty or forty at that sample in the major leagues
this year. Notwithstanding, he's going to be a good hitter. It's going
to play up the middle. Emanuel Rodriguez and James Wood I kind of paired
together, and honestly I could flip them either way. They both have had
strikeout concerns. They both have prodigious raw power, They're both fast and have
shown a willingness to steal. I gave the edge here to James Wood despite
my abide love for Emmanuel Rodriguez, because James Wood is showing the strikeout gains
and he's doing it at a level higher while being about the same age as
Emmanuel Rodriguez. So the big concern with James Wood was is he's going to
get those levers under control and strike out less than thirty percent of the time.
He's down to nineteen percent of the time in triple A this year.
That is super impressive, and everything else about his performance continues to look super
exciting. Emmanuel Rodriguez, he's currently striking out. I think at last I
looked it was under thirty percent, but he's hovered at thirty percent or above
strikeouts at every level pretty much that he's been. He's also walking almost that
much and does hit the ball in the air the most of these guys so
and has great eggsy vealos as well. So I mean, I'm very convinced
that Emanuel Rodriguez is going to hit for a lot of power, and he's
deceptively quick and is going to swipe some bags too, So Nate knows.
I'm a huge fan of em Rod Jasin Demingez. I think might be a
bit of a prize here. But again, people forget how young he is.
He's, you know, like just barely twenty one now, has already
shown success in the major leagues. Maybe the skills and tools off the page
like don't jump that much. People forget that he steals bases a lot and
did in the minor leagues too, And so for me of that, like
grouping of four guys, you can order them a bunch of different ways,
and you might change it depending on the kind of format that you play.
I'm a big Jason Dimingis fan. I think that a lot about his production
in the major leagues was backed up by his underlying skills, and then his
propensity to steals just gives me a little more confidence in him being a fantasy
kind of categories contributor going forward. And then my number one junior, Cameronaro,
this guy's a freak. He's barely twenty years old and has legit like
top five level power in the major leagues. Doesn't get to all of it
yet, like, I would still like to see him hit more fly balls
because he does good things happen, but he's got a perfectly acceptable strikeout rate
over the last couple of years in the upper miners. He doesn't walk that
much, and so maybe Nate likes him a bit more because of that.
But I also think that that's going to help his balls in play tick up
because he doesn't strike out a ton and doesn't walk that much, so he's
swinging a lot, and I think that might lead to the highest home run
totals of this crew. You know, this is a guy I'm not going
to be surprised if he turns in forty or a fifty home run season.
If he starts to put the ball in the air just a little bit more,
you could see that happening. So the massive power upside, along with
pretty well rounded rest of his batted ball profile has Canon Arrow in a tier
of zone for me, just at this age, this level of power,
this level of hitting success is so rare. I think he's going to be
like Raffie Devers, Austin Riley like have seasons that put him in the MVP
level conversations. So Junior Canon Arrow is my number one. We would,
Howiday have been five on this list regardless of how his first little stint would
have went for you. Yeah, okay, I figured it as much.
I love that you put Jadam too. To be honest, I don't know.
I might have a hard time not putting Jadam one. Yeah, I
wouldn't argue with you too much, especially because the steels like is so far
his favor versus if we're talking like rodo for me for me though, like
having a masher who like maybe the Rays are considering it. Second side played
some games there at Triple A. I don't know if he really could do,
but if he's playing second base, like talking about a forty plus homer
bat at second base in your Bay League, like yeah, yeah, it's
fun. The story of Jadam's dynasty value if you like sum it up into
like a tic tac video. To me, it'd be like a like a
wife getting ready for people coming over, like frantically cleaning up in the house,
like just kind of losing her mind. Like you talk about a teenage
bat that you know folks were identifying as a phenom or what have you,
And it's like his numbers at a ball weren't that great. It's number like
just funny to me, the fickleness that dynasty value can have on players like
this, Well, well, first of all, could it have gone any
better? Could have been clean around the house when when you're having people over
to Nate, they're not gendering the housework around here? Nice, you're right.
Second of all, A hundred percent agree like the wild bouncing around the
perceived value of performance of Domingez, Like, it's weird to me that he's
so far down some less like I think even Eric Longenhangen, who I love,
I think he does great work. I think Longenhangen had him like in
the thirties in his top one hundred, and I was like, what fuck,
he's so good. And I mean, maybe he's closer to right too,
because I heard that the Yankees are not going to promote him right up
to the to the big leagues once he's back healthy. Yeah, I heard
they're going to let him work in Scranton for a bit. But yeah,
I'm first things that I asked about in the Dynasty dugout like late twenty twenty
two, I was like, are we undervaluing Domingez? Because this was after
his I think his a ball or Douba run rather where he was just mashing
but was maybe having a little bit of babbit misfortune, and everyone was like,
ah, that's okay, you know, yeah, he's doing okay.
But I was like, under the hood, this looks really really good.
And then he kind of exploded in twenty three again like people had expected him
to right out of the gate. Yeah, he's he's incredible. And I
think it's interesting looking at that top group. So my top five hitters,
the fifth guy was a number one overall pick out of high school. The
other four were all international guys, right, and oh that's right, not
would not would. But I was coming back to that just thinking about that
next grouping of players that I didn't rank in the top twenty five. But
who has the skills to be that like top tier? And you know,
I tried to talk myself into like Claws or cell est In or even Sallas,
who you know, some people obviously have way higher already. But I
just think the thing to end up mattering for your performance as a hitter is
success at a young age versus much older competition. The guys that get there
are like kind of younger super talented high school or international level prospects that then
get pushed. So you want to look for like the guys who are most
likely to be top five at the end of this year or this time next
year that are maybe not there yet, Like maybe it is the Lorenzo's or
the Emerson's Aiden Miller, like these high school guys that come up and start
performing at the next couple of levels. It was the thing that I was
I was reflecting back on, like, yeah, you want to shoot for
the moon. Those high upside Robert Klea's kind of prospects are the ones to
go for young international bats or preps that are getting pushed. Yeah, yeah,
well you know what, I want to really look for Matt a shower
and watch all of this pretty boys shit off of me because I am done
with this. I don't want to do this again. To take a break,
this was pretty boy, I am let's back to the other guys.
Respect of the guys that do this all the time and talk about only mixed
league only prospects. But it's just like, oh my god, yahn,
I don't own any of these guys really, and most of my latest because
it's good I trained him away. These are these are not my not my
prospects for the most well, I'm gonna go take a shower. Prospects trending
up on fan tracks ownership. Top of the list this week was Zebbie Matthews
plus five percent. Up to fourteen percent makes a lot of sense. I
think Adam Mazer probably his promotion to Triple A fueled this. But he's up
two and a half percent to nineteen percent. Guy that you talked about this
off season, some Chandler Champlain, getting some getting some shouts and attention.
He's up two and a half percent. They had a good outing last week
and he's doing that in Double A, right, Yeah, Felman Celestine is
up two percent. Oh, last week we talked about we had Attle renaissance
episode. You think there might be a Brennan Davis renaissance. He's up a
couple of percent, and but he hit like five home runs this week and
didn't win Player of the Week for the International League, which was interesting.
Yeah, I don't know a lot of people really liked him. I was
kind of skeptical personally, but yeah, I was never. I was never
like he's a top five prospect, But who knows. People say that he
wasn't healthy. I just know that he always had a problem hitting one side
of the hitters. I don't remember which. I think lefties or something who
was a righty who couldn't hit lefties well, which was weird up two percent,
Brandon Sprote, Augustin Ramirez up another two percent, Owen Murphy up two
percent, who was one of probably my last cut for the top twenty list
here, and then matt Ronaldo. Yean, I see people getting all excited
about and taking up He's up one and a half percent the one hundred and
mileths four. Yeah. And he must also see people suggesting that he has
above average command and I don't know. Out on Twitter, I cut up
thirty one of his pitches from one of his outings, and I would not
call that above average command. I think the big Gary Gil Hill's up up
a percent, which is good. That brings his roster percentage up to one.
That's good for that. Besides call there, hang on, did Matthews
Quinn Matthews make that list too? Yeah, he's on you. Yeah,
he's been like on this list. I think most of the time, you
know, half a percent every week or so. Climbing a little bit.
It wasn't huge, but maybe that'll change next week. Looking ahead this week,
I should mention we're not going to have an episode next week. The
holiday and our schedules just started sninking up, so we'll be back in two
weeks. But I think that'll be nice. I think we're kind of at
a point where kind of all the big names at the beginning of the year
sitting on some rosters, and people might be a little less inclined to pick
up some new pop ups, if you will. But I've got a little
cachet of hitters and pitchers I've been keeping an eye on that maybe didn't get
off to the greatest start, but might be worth a worth of luck.
But looking ahead to this week's minor league Action International League, I don't know.
Maybe Indianapolis at Iowa. See if Brendan Davis keeps it up and PJ.
Murray's he does nothing the many he has like a huge week every three
weeks in the PCL at El Paso see now in case he's Schmidt and Company.
Sacramento has got a pretty good lineup against Maser Eastern League. Maybe Richmond
at Booie. I don't know. I've been watching some Victor Barracotto and I
know his numbers are not there, but don't like really see anything bad happening
on his bats except for just not getting hits. I've been keeping an eye
on Cam Weston. He's striking out a bunch of guys. Still see if
anyone from Aberdeen gets called up this week. Southern League. I gotta go
with Birmingham at Biloxi. I want to see Schultz double a debut. How
that goes. Texas League San Antonio has got Wichita maybe uh yeah. I
watched some snowing and others. That would be Zebbi's third double a start in
this sal League. Jersey Shore at Aberdeen. Pineda had another good week.
Watch some more, maybe some Aldegari versus those Aberdeen bats which we've seen before,
We've seen him dominate them before. Let's see if he backside up.
Midwest League West Michigan's at Lake County Matt that should be a good one to
see ham if he's not promoted. Versus our boys, Mooney and Capus.
You see what Nate Furman has been hot, their leadoff hitter a really good
week. Yeah yeah, and you know who also had a really Good League
week is my Tigers B side bat. Luke Gold has been doing some things.
He's up to like nine home runs. Yeah. Northwest League, which
is always slim Pickens. Maybe Spokane at Eugene. It's the two top teams
in the league, Sullivan and Dolander versus the best offense in the league.
Call league Modesto at Rancho. I mean pretty much whenever those two teams play
each other, that's probably the most interesting watch to me. Florida State League
Dunedin at Bradenton. I keep not getting to watching some of these young Blue
Jay arms that I want to, and this has got to be the week
to do it. With that awesome Angle at bradon Ton and then Carolina Lee
Lynchburg is at Fredericksburg. Fredericksburg broadcast shares velocity. So maybe that tugboat outing
will be an interesting one to watch with a gun that could be really interesting.
So yeah, I don't know, Matt. I think that'll do it
for episode thirty four of the Well the Pretty Boy Podcast, Pretty Boy Podcast,
we need to change the podcast name for a week. Yeah, maybe
maybe I don't like it. I don't want to do this again, Matt
at least maybe not for another year. Sounds good. All right, well,
we'll let Chicago farmer take us out, be well, and we will
talk to you again in two weeks later, half miles an hour, riding
too his head. You hop it down first with the lump bonus face,
and on the very next pitch he up and stole second thing with greatst speed.
He wasn't born, He had dead yes, uniform