What is up, fellow thermonuclear A efforts. I am a very exasperated damp
Valley who, after planning all his content drops were and recording his concurrent drops
for the beginning of this week starting Tuesday, found out via WOJE that RJ.
Barrett had agreed to a four year, one hundred and twenty million dollars
extension with the Knicks, part of which is incentive based. That's per Ian
Begley saying gets tied to all Star appearances among other things. We don't know
the full details yet, but we'll get into that first and foremost, though,
let me remind you, let me plead with you to continue subscribing to
us wherever you're consuming us. If you're watching this on YouTube, hit that
subscribe button also with the light button, and leave comments as they can help
the algorithm. Love is back really trying to build up this channel, and
your support mean the world. We do not take ourselves very seriously around here.
What we do a thorough job covering the rest DMBA. If this is
your first time listening to us in a podcast player, please subscribe. Leave
ratings and reviews on iTunes and Spotify as well. We recently hit the top
eighty five and basketball podcasts for Apple. I believe it was. It would
be really cool if we could sneak in like the top fifty or something ridiculous.
So help me juice up those numbers. Subscribe, leave ratings and reviews.
Those are how iTunes. Excuse me, Apple Podcasts is going to help
or make it more likely that we're found by people. How to help people
find us? But if you've just stumbled across us because you wanted to see
what we thought about what I thought about the RJ. Barrett extension, just
consider throwing us that permanent subscription, downloading downloading every episode. It helps this
podcast out a ton. Also join our discord. The link to that is
in the podcast description as well as the YouTube description, and follow us on
all the socials. Those are on the screen if you're watching on YouTube,
or they can be found in the podcast and YouTube description themselves. Finally,
if you've done all those things, please consider recommending us to people who you
like hoops or retweeting our promos on Twitter to help us out, or you
know, bumping our YouTube channel to someone who's looking for more content. I've
been putting out a lot of stuff during during the off season, so I
appreciate you all following along and any new people who are hopping aboard the community.
With that out of the way, let's talk some RJ. Barrett and
let's not frame it first and foremost in the context of how it impacts the
Donovan Mitchell trade sweepstakes, since that's what WOS did. Just shameless here by
the talking about woes, but also the Knicks. Let's just let's let's start
here though. RJ Barrett four years, one hundred and twenty million dollars.
As Ian Begley from SNY noted, the bonuses for r J. Barrett's rookie
extention are tied to All Star selections, selections to the three All NBA teams
and NBA All Defensive teams, so it's worth it's worth up two hundred and
twenty million dollars. So that implies that these bonuses are heavy. It could
be as much as something like two million dollars for each of these benchmarks across
all four of those years. In case maybe you're talking about like a crap
ton of money in bonuses. I don't know what the final dollar amount that's
going to be guaranteed. I think a lot of people had sticker shock when
they first saw this deal. And to this point, as I mentioned in
something that I've recorded before, this news actually broke with regards to Donovan Mitchell
and spoiler alert the raptors check your feeds for that sometime later this week.
I don't think RJ. Barrett has shown that he can be the second best
or the best player on a championship contender. Would I ruled out the outcome
though, just because he just wrapped up his age twenty one season, the
Knicks have sort of thrown him through the ringer when it comes to his roles.
I would certainly not rule out him being the third or fourth best player
on a title contender. And that's really what this is paying him as when
this deal kicks in in twenty three, twenty four. That the salary cap
right now is projected to be like one hundred and thirty three point six million
dollars, And so even if he got the full thirty you're talking about someone
who's gonna be worth about twenty two percent a little bit more than twenty two
percent of the sal recap. That's not a big deal. And that's assuming
he starts at thirty, I assume they'll be escalators here instead of the Knicks
to having him out of the climbing deal like they've done with some of the
most recent contracts they've signed. That's fine for someone who's going to profile if
you are cham Whiship contender is your third or fourth best player. And again,
that cap number could go up and the deal notes could go down.
I mean, like, I'll personally be shocked if there's more than one hundred
and twelve million dollars guaranteed as part of this deal. My guests would be
that they's somewhere in the neighborhood of eight plus million dollars tied to incentives,
which, if he reaches, the Knicks would obviously be happy to pay it,
and fans should be thrilled to flip that bill. The number could still
rub some the wrong way if they just deem RJ. Barrett a lost cause.
Someone who is never shot better than fifty six percent at the rim for
an entire season, someone who's never posted higher than a fifty three point five
to shooting percentage, so not even coming close to sniffing Lee average for his
career. I get it, but the context of what's happened with the Knicks
matters first and foremost, He's not had a consistent role. He's been with
three different iterations of the Knicks, essentially, and after he made strides in
his sophomore season, especially looking at RJ leading those bench heavy units and then
his catch and shoot shot from deep, they buried him further in the offensive
pecking order, which I don't think did them or him any favors. They
eventually gave him more control over the offenses of the season went on. We
saw him attacked the basket more, had some really nice moments doing that.
I think there's actually a lot more to plumb if you surround him with better
spacing, which they've also not done. They have not surrounded him with the
team that shoots a lot of threes at an efficient clip. They've been efficient
through most of his seasons, particularly the last two, I believe, but
they're not taking threes of this obscene volume. If you surround him with shooters,
I think he's a good enough passer to maybe not pass guys open,
but to react properly to defenses and find guys around the hoop, creating assists
at the rim. With some of his you know, change of acceleration dribbles.
He's low turnover. His career turnover percentage is at ten point nine,
and it's improven each and every season. He was under ten percent, turning
the ball over one hundred ten percent of his possessions last year. That's a
big deal. I think he's defended well above his pay grade and well above
when anyone's expected. The metrics on defense will still not paint him as the
most impactful defender. He's not like an exceptional rebound or I think he's just
fine for his size or the position that he's playing. And given how the
Knicks have run their offense, particularly looking to get the ball in the hands
of Julius Randall as soon as possible and to get him to run the show.
But the assignments he's needed to cover, especially last year, but what
I saw from him as a sophomore, if he's not someone who will elevate
you on defense within a team concept, he's certainly someone's not going to torpedo
you. And that's while taking on maybe the you know, the second toughest
assignment. That's high praise for a wing who's only coming off his age twenty
one season, and so he's not going to value with the steal of the
block rates. But he is just someone who is stout and solid, can
handle on the ball, and won't really burn you when he's when he's away
from it, He's also not going to take chances. Do you want him
as your primary wing defender? I would argue, no, you don't want
him on the best players that are playing the two, in the three spot
or maybe even the four, depending on the lineups you're talking about. That's
not something he necessarily did a ton through his first three seasons. But I
think he has the size and strength sixty seven and he is like pretty pretty
strong to defend up. Maybe he's listed at six sists at six six,
I always thought he's listened to six seven. I think he could do some
stuff as a small ball four. I also believe that the three point shooting
is going to remain serviceable. He's shooting over thirty seven percent on catch and
shoot threes for his career. That's a big deal. He didn't shoot forty
plus percent like he did as a sophomore of this past season, and it
was while raising his volume. But the Nicks were worse this season. They
gave him more responsibility, and the spacing was off. The quality of looks
just felt like they weren't the same. And at thirty four point two percent,
that's close enough to like a like league average to not necessarily worry about
where he is. And so he's probably somewhere in between. Maybe he just
ends up being this thirty six thirty seven percent shooter from three. If he's
gonna be thirty seven percent thirty seven plus percent off the catch, then I
think that's you know, that's perfectly fine. This isn't someone who is subsists
subsisting on wide open corner looks either. He actually shot thirty one percent from
the corners this past season, so he was better away from the corners above
the break. Only twenty five percent of his threes came from the corners this
past year, and so he was at thirty six percent on above the break
or non corner threes, whoever you want to frame it. That's a fine
number, and I think it shows because most of his attempts, he's not
taking these off the dribble three pointers. It's happened a little bit, but
it's not He's not Donovan Mitchell. That's not who He's not even Jalen Brunson
in that regard, and that's not something Jalen Brunson. That's not a strength
of his. As my point, that's more so the Knicks have left Julius
Randalls to those devices, even though they arguably should not have. So he
is scalable on off to where I think you don't need to put the ball
on his hands for him to be effective. He can still be a threat
and is comfortable working away from it as more of a stationary shooter, not
someone who's in constant motion. I would like to see him get more on
ball reps. I think there's going to be something too. I don't think
he'll ever have in off the bounce three, but I think there could be
something to his mid range game and more importantly the force and thrust with which
he played towards the latter half of last season. I really think this is
someone who will be a much better finisher at the rim, who can create
opportunities by getting the foul line eventually, not sort of unlike we saw with
the mid career progression of a Jimmy Butler. I don't think he's ever going
to have. Barrett will have that type of just gravity. But this is
someone who has done pretty okay, not even pretty okay, just a really
awesome job when looking relative to his position at drawing, shooting fouls, and
I think that's something that's only going to continue to improve if you put the
ball in his hands. So there's more to plumb here, and we too
often look at these twenty two year olds as finish products, when that's not
what they are. He's about to enter year four. His role with the
Knicks has been wildly inconsistent, not the minutes, but the context of his
usage, and so you need some stability there. The catch twenty two is
I don't think the Knicks are currently built to give it to him. Since
you still have Randall, you've now added jail On Brunson. I don't know
where he fits into that packing order, and it'll only become more complicated if
both Randall and Brunson, on top of Barrett remain once the Knicks make this
Donovan Mitchell trade, which by the way, it's not dead. We will
get to that in a second. So I'm ultimately fine with the Knicks extending
RJ. Barrett their first draft pick to resign with them on this extension.
Since Charlie Ward that's just still a wild factoid here. I think it was
smart to lock him up on this deal, or at least not unwise.
It's he would really have to torpedo from here on for this to be one
of the worst contracts in the league. And it's four years, it's not
the full five. Don't know if there's a player option on the back end
of it. It takes him through his age twenty sixth season though at most,
which is nothing. That's like the you know, the start of his
primer, maybe nearing his peak. And I really do believe there's a ton
of runway here for growth from him. And I think this when you're looking
at the inefficiency of a player. We've seen these guys who have had mid
not mid career, but sort of early career turnarounds after you know, two,
three, four rather inefficient seasons. Look at Kema Walker when he really
turned himself into a good author dribbleshooter after struggling so much. Even someone who
might be more of a better camp their games are not similar. But Bradley
Beale when it felt like he was sort of not I guess struggling to find
his place in Washington's offense through the first three seasons of his career, and
then something just clicks and you give him maybe a little bit more agency.
He learns how to play alongside the personnel as the team's getting better and there's
more stability there. That's something that I could see happening for RJ. Barrett.
I don't think he I think at this point you bet against him becoming
as good as Bradley Beale. But it's something like that transition is not outside
the realm of possibility, and so if you have sticker shock, I get
it. We still need to remember that we have to evaluate these deals in
the image of what the salary cap is going to be in right now.
Like r J Barrett, someone's gonna take up maybe twenty percent of the Knicks
salary cap long term. That's just that's not big enough to be up in
arms about. I'm fine with them betting on his potential. I'd probably argue
it's actually smarter than not, provided they have an actual plan for him,
which I don't love. The setup right now, there's not a ton of
spacing around him, and then he's going to be third in the pecking order,
potentially fourth depending on how things shake out, and so that will be
something to monitor that. I think this is even a situation where if he
is potentially moved, not this season, since he'll be on the poison Pill,
since the poison pill prevision kicks in. It just he's not immovable,
but it's a lot harder to move him if he's ever moved down the line.
It wouldn't shock me if you put him in a better ecosystem or just
a more clarifying one that you could see him thrive. And I don't think
he needs to leave the Knicks to thrive. I just think give him a
clarifying role and like stick to it. I really believe that this is someone
who we're not talking about is on the fringes of the top one hundred player
conversation, that he would maybe be closer like top fifty, maybe someone who
works his way into that All Star All MBA discussion. I have not ruled
out set outcome for R. J. Barrett's career, and that's why I
think this. I'm not going to call the extension of home run because there's
some risk caked in here. I don't know that he's been worth this much
money through his first four years, first three years. Excuse me, but
I think he's shown enough at different points and in a lot of different areas.
When you look at defense, his set jumper and then him attacking the
rim last year and some of the passes that he made and the attention that
he drew while he was attacking downhill like that, I think this was a
justified risk in so far as it's even a risk. So we'll see if
he remains part of their long term core, but it's pretty easy to expect
him to be in New York through at least this season, which brings us
to Donovan Mitchell, because everything Nicks is framed through Donovan Mitchell and the way
Ward framed it was just like wild. In the initial tweet of the the
RJ. Barrett extension, reporting Woods has said New York Knicks guard r J.
Barrett's find was like a four year rookie extension that could be worth up
to one hundred and twenty million. His Asian Bill Duffy told ESPN. Complicating
the franchises offseason trade pursuit of Utah Jazz All star Donovan Mitchell, can we
give RJ. Barrett's contract extension its own tweet, please before we go right
to Donovan Mitchell. It didn't need to be clickbait. There was no link
in that tweet. And RJ. Barrett is I think a big enough household
name, or at least divisive enough name in NBA circles that that draws engagement
anyway. And it's the fucking Knicks. So it could have been, you
know, like Kevin Knox agreeing to an extension last year and people would have
cared about it. So I just don't understand why you shoehorn that into the
tweet unless you're trying to sort of preemptively win the press conference that you're intending
to have with Donovan Mitchell or about the Donovan Mitchell trade sweep stakes. Wogs
noted in basically the follow upiece that he that he wrote the Knicks set a
deadline of Monday to get a trade done for Mitchell with the Jazz. When
they didn't meet it, they committed to RJ. Barrett with an extension,
which again makes him harder trade. It also insinuates that ar J. Barrett
needed to be in every single permutation that of a don Van Mitchell trade,
which which no because most of the permutations have been floated out there did not
include RJ. Barrett. I don't think. I think r J. Bart
iss a good player who the Jazz do not want and probably shouldn't want,
because they would have had to have made the decision on his future, if
not now, then by the end of next season, and to recommit to
someone who you only have a year with at most, and when you're in
the infancy of a rebuild, it just gets finicky. And I could understand
why you wouldn't want to do that. My expectation is that they didn't want
to do that. That was all along, and I'd argued on this podcast
it's a difficult conversation to have. But if you were the Knicks and you
had the option of giving up RJ. Barrett or holding on to two or
three additional first round picks, it would have made more sense to hold on
to those picks, since they would, in theory, probably be more value
in future trades if you want to acquire another start a pair with Mitchell.
This feels like the framing feels like the Knicks are really going out of their
way now to make it seem like they're going to swindle a jazz the jazz
if and when a deal happens, because they were able to keep RJ.
Barrett, And that's just not like I don't want to say nothing could be
further from the truth. But they're not going to swindle the jazz. Teams
that are trading superstars are seldom ever swindled, especially ones that are making the
decision on their own accord, like the Jazz so far are, and when
that player has all this time left on his contract, like Donovan Mitchell does,
and so you're not swindling anybody, And you don't need to make it
seem like the jazz had all this interest in Barrett or weren't willing to do
a deal without Barrett. Yet eventually you figure out a way to get it
done. Anyway, you're not winning that press conference because it's like that's not
an actual like this is not an actual war to be one. Everyone can
tell that Barrett doesn't make a ton of sense for Utah. And if you
wanted to after the fact painted as a victory that you didn't need to give
up, you're maybe you can talk your only core prospects because Barrett's the closest
you come to a blue ship prospect, depending on how you feel about Quinton
Grimes, Fine if you want. That's what the Timberwolves did with Jade McDaniels
and Rigobert. I find it very hard to believe that they saved more than
one first round pick or swap, and that it was probably an earlier pick,
not one of the distant ones, by keeping Jade McDaniels. It's fine,
they wanted to keep them. It's fine they're painting that is a big
win to each their own. But to now portray the RJ. Barrett extension
as you having a backbone and Mitchell talks and that you're going to come out
of this huge win because one of the players the Jazz desperately coverted. Because
if you're going to come out and say that there are significant complications, that
there are significant hurdles out of clear in the parameters of a deal because RJ.
Barrett, let's just say, can't be traded. He can, but
but it's too hard to trade him, then the implication is that the Jazz
really wanted RJ. Barrett and he was some breaking point. That's just that's
not the case. The Jazz have always get future picks more than tangible players
or prospects like Quentin Grimes or even an Obi Toppin who have multiple years left
on their rookie scale deal. And I'm not saying they should have preferred Topping
to RJ. Barrett, but when you're looking at Grimes specifically another winging a
little bit smaller than Barrett, who can profile when you're not looking at his
on ball stuff as someone who can exist in this three and D role,
Yeah, you prefer Quentin Grimes. He's gonna be cheaper for three years.
You don't have to make this huge expensive bet on him. And so I
don't know what the Knicks like think there, and you know, I just
I don't I understand what's happening here. But it's just so dumb because there's
no more. This does not complicate the pursuit of Donovan Mitchell at all,
because yes, RJ. Barrett's technically off the table. I have to imagine
that the Jazz probably have a list of priorities of who and what they want
from the Knicks, and I would be floored. I would be flabbergasted if
RJ. Barrett was higher than fifth on that list. You have a twenty
five pick, twenty seven pick, and a twenty nine pick Quentin Grimes,
and then maybe Barrett comes after that. But you also might have just had
other year picks in there, because, like, let's not forget, while
you can't trade him in back to back years, you could still finagle deals
where the Knicks are trading a twenty six pick a twenty twenty eight pick,
so he could be look theoretically as low as like what, let's just say,
not that they could get all of them, but that they ranked in
order of preference what they want from the Knicks. I would hazard that the
twenty twenty five, twenty twenty six, twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty eight,
twenty twenty nine first all up here ahead of R. J. Barrett,
and I would think that Quentin Grimes does as well. That's six.
Let's just call it five, because maybe they're looking at it as, oh,
well, twenty five's not that far away. So we don't need to
pretend like the Knicks have pulled himself out of the Donald Mitchell's sweep stage,
that they're doing some you know, we don't need to a row as size
this. This framing like this has spin, that's exactly what this is.
I still expect Donovan Mitchell end up with the Knicks. Maybe this makes it
slightly more likely that he's with the Jazz until the regular season starts, because
the Knicks are actually pulling back. Perhaps they're higher on this core than expected,
and they want to evaluate where they are before doing something during the regular
season. Perhaps they start four and seven and then meet Utah's asking price.
The other way that you could frame this, and if you've listened to this
long, I'm sure you thought about it, that the Knicks are trying to
get out in front of them giving up more first round picks than have been
reported. There's been the five first round pick framing, which it sounds like
a lot, but we know for a fact and only two unprotected first rounders
have been included. So that means that they're giving three first rounders that aren't
their owner that like that are heavily protected, I guess, And that's not
really when you're looking at the picks they have in Dallas's top ten protected this
year, Milwaukee's top four protecting twenty twenty five, and then the Detroit and
Washington picks. They are probably not going to convey next year, and they
will never convey higher than eighth I think is the highest spot that one of
them can be at, and it's protected so far out in the future you
can't really plan or bank on when you're going to get them. Those are
not like they're useful, don't get me wrong. When you pile first round
picks together juice, so that five first round pick headline, that's going to
draw attention, But it's not like the moon and back when you're looking at
the offer. But perhaps the Knicks understanding this, no that they're going to
get to a point where we're talking about seven or eight first round picks are
going out, and that three to four of them are their own, and
that three to four of them are unprotected. But it's okay because we got
to keep RJ. Barrett were able to convince the Jazz to let us have
him. I don't know what the ultimate package is going to be for Donovan
Mitchell. Maybe doesn't even go to the Knicks at this point. That's when
I might start to buy into this that the Knicks pulled back, because if
Donovan Mitchell is indeed sent elsewhere, until then, this extension changes nothing for
me. The Knicks are still the favorites because they still have the best package
even with it out without r J. Barrett included if they go to the
max or close to it when looking at their best assets. But it's also
just an issue of okay, was he ever part of the best package?
To begin with the fact it's not. The Knicks can still build the best
package without RJ. Barrett's Was RJ. Barrett ever included in the package that
the Jazz wanted the most, like the realistic package. I'm sure they asked
for everything in everyone, but the realistic package that they that they actually want
from the Knicks. Was he in it? I don't know. My guess
is no, but he certainly doesn't need to be and you don't need to
view the R. J. Barrett extension through the Donovan Mitchell prism. All
this means is that he's most likely going to finish the season with the Knicks
in the event they do not only make a Mitchell trade or maybe some other
other trades. So he's going to finish the season with the Knicks. Nothing
is guaranteed beyond that. You don't need to buy the spin here. This
is just I think it takes away from the decision that Knicks made. If
you're trying to look at this as, oh, we were so willing to
give him up, but this didn't meet our deadlines. We were just going
to sign him anyway, what I would give the Knicks more credit if this
wasn't the vein of reporting that we were being subjected to right now, and
I would expect this all to end with either the Knicks using this as a
way to say, well, we got to keep RJ. Barrett even though
the Jazz really wanted him when they trade don Mitchell, or it's preemptively getting
out in front of the Knicks had to give up seven first round picks because
they wouldn't include RJ. Barrett. Maybe it's a little bit of both there.
Either way, I think J. Barrett extension is good and justifiable for
both team and player here, and I think it has zero bearing on what
happens in the Donovan Mitchell sweepstakes. And I will only believe that it has
any impact on it if and when Donovan Mitchell heads elsewhere. That those are
my thoughts on the extension. What do you think? Let me know.
Please remember to subscribe on YouTube and on your podcast player. Both it helps
us out of time. You go to Apple Podcast, Spotify and then also
head over YouTube like can comment on our YouTube videos to help the algorithm.
Love us back, follow us on the socials in the description links to those
are in the descriptions, and also join our discord and the links out as
in the description as well. So next time and is always lead shout to
one the only the draft pick that should have broken the curse where one of
the Knicks first rounders did not sign an extension before or since Charlie Ward.
The one and only Frank Nilicky