What's up, y'all is Drewski and I've teamed up with Mountain Dew to produce
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hardwous and listeners. I am Dan Favalle coming at you sadly without my co
is Adam Brahmo. This time we had our weekly Sunday mailbag on Locker Room
that I recorded. I did it solo because he is sick, as I
mentioned at the top, after getting his first dose of the COVID vaccination,
he had to cancel last minute. We had a ton of questions though,
so we thank you guys for sending those in cover a lot of different ground
here we're talking about the you know, Eastern Conference specifically, the Mailbag will
do a Western Conference one next week. We also have a different series that
we were going to start for you, taking a look at every team to
kind of just go in depth. We'd like to give you guys that every
once in a while that we're going to fire up, hopefully next week or
later this week, a few things our usual housekeeping notes. But first let's
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our podcasts are still going up on YouTube, though, so check us out
there. Let's get into this solo mailbag though. All right, everyone,
welcome to another mailbag edition of the Hardwinnox podcast. Still waiting for some people
to join us in locker room, but as an impromptu pivot, my co
host Adam frommel is under the weather today after receiving his first dose of the
COVID nineteen vaccination. Good for him forgetting it. So we're rolling on solo
today, which we'll be exciting. We've done it before. I got a
ton of questions to get to. I will try to get to as many
as possible without further ado. Here though, since you've already listened to if
you're listening to this post recording, I've already heard the intro, let's just
get going here. I will start with Fred long time question asker, and
I presume listener then, for that matter, ask how long can Tibbs continue
starting Alfred Peyton at point guard with a diminishing win percentage. Look, that's
a great question. I think Nick's fans in general have been frustrated with the
loyalty that Thibodeau is shown to the Elfred Peyton minutes. I don't know how
long he will go with it, but the experiment should have clearly ended already
in my book, I get why they don't want to throw a manual quickly
into the starting lineup just yet. That does make a ton of sense when
you look at what you want to do with your second unit. We've seen
some minutes. So I go back to that NET game earlier this season where
Quickly did start, I believe, and he wasn't with the second unit and
they got destroyed. I get the logic there, and the minutes, by
the way, with Quickly and Derrek Rose. It hasn't been a ton because
of d Rose's absences and there's only been in New York for part of the
season, but the Knicks are plus eleven point six per one hundred possessions during
those minutes. Ironically, the defense has been spectacular during that time, while
the offense has been been trash, and they've they've played a lot of those
reps with Alec Burks, and so you would expect those units to be mostly
better. The most used one has been semi confident offensively. They've had topping
in the with Taj Gibson. But I get wanting to tether Derek Rosan quickly
together. In theory, still play Frank Nilikina just fucking play him already would
be my recommendation. Or you'll maybe try it with Alec Burks in the starting
lineup. You know, you have I get that you want to sort of
preserve the sanctity of the second unit and some of the success you've had with
your bench lineups, upgrade the starting unit, and it does give you a
lot of options if you want to go with Frank Nielikina just because you're already
kind of playing with a non shooter and Peyton, if you need to replace
some of the ball handling, even though you have Julius Randall, you have
RJ. Barrett, you could go with Alec Burks there, and so that
would probably be my recommendation for this team. I don't again, I can't
rationalize the loyalty to Alfred Peyton. He just looks bad on the court most
of the time, I would say. And if New York wants to make
any noise in the playoffs or you know, just ensure that they stay out
of play in territory, I think there just needs to be some shifts going
on with those minutes in the rotation. Let's go to a question from meyer
rothbamb another regular question asker. He asked, or tells me to rank these
teams one to three, Knicks, Hornets and Pacers. I thought about this
one for a few minutes before getting started. It's really difficult. Now maybe
it's a little bit easier if we were just going looking at the current state.
I'd have the Hornets at three, just when you don't have LaMelo Ball,
you don't have Gordon Hayward at the moment because they suffered injuries. Between
the Knicks and the Pacers, I think you can look at the Knicks and
say, at least they sort of have the specialty, which is defense,
and this season, do they have the best player of the two teams,
It would be between Randall and Sabonis. That being said, you could argue
that the Pacers have three of the four best players in this matchup between Sabonis,
Turner, Malcolm Brogden. I don't know that you're taking RJ. Barrett
just yet over any one of those guys. The Pacers have not been good
and it seems like they need another initiator from the point of attack. Still,
they haven't had a ton of samples with Carros Lavert sort of running the
show, and I really don't want to give anything away because that's going to
lead into our next question. Let's just ask it. At the same time,
Kim asked should the Indiana Pacers rip it up and start all over again
like the Orlando Magic. My gut answer to this question would be no,
just because the Magic didn't really have a path it seemed to getting any better
internally when you were looking at their personnel and what they needed most, there
was a lot of overlap or just players you're trying to shoehorn into roles that
don't really fit them, like an Aaron Gordon, even with his improved ball
skills, and just as a facilitator, he's not going to be Paul George.
With the Pacers, it's a little bit different because we still haven't seen
there what would project to be their best five man unit together since T.
J. Warren is injured, where you have Turner, Lavert, Sabonis,
Brogden, and then Warren, and then you've only had looked at just the
four guys that are healthy right now, Labert, Turner, Sabonis, and
Brogden. You've only seen those guys play four hundred and one possessions together.
The minutes of not been encouraging. The offense has been a disaster there,
and I do wonder if Indianna is just sort of banking on Caislvert to do
too much on ball work where we saw him. Yeah, if you want
to play him against second units, he might be fine as sort of a
quasi point guard, but you know, in a spot game when there were
injuries and he was just sort of your go to sho are running everything.
But he does feel like he needs sort of a more traditional first option on
the team to play off and that's not necessarily Malcolm Brock and it's not even
the bonus even though he's sort of keen function as that first option they feel
like they're missing. There's there's something inherently wrong with the construction of the roster,
I guess, And I don't know how they go about getting that player
because they are strapped financially this year, they're probably gonna lose. I would
imagine one of Doug McDermott or t J McConnell just basing this off of their
tax situation, and they have a history of not paying the tax there are
probably questions about the coaching staff at this point, at least the decisions under
head coach Nate Yorkin. He does seem a little hesitant to close games with
two bigs. The miles tournaments without Sabonus have sort of been fine, but
the minutes when zi Bonus plays out Turner have been a little bit wonky.
I don't necessarily know what the solution is for them, but I still think
it's worth looking at the talent on this team and saying, well, okay,
well how could they look with TJ. Warren, Where now you sort
of have just another guy who's going to he should space the floor for you,
but just another person who can generate offense for you. So maybe you
don't need a let's say, a pure floor general. I want to stay
away from pure point guard because you have just guys who can do a bunch
of different things in Malcolm Brockden, Warren and then Lavert, plus all the
facilitation that you're want to get from Zabonus. And so there's a chance that
this exact pacers unit has a higher ceiling than we're seeing now. That being
said, they could sort of have that come to Jesus moment where you know
it was even sort of a problem with Victor Oladipo. They just they need
a different kind of primary initially year than they have. I don't know how
they go about getting one. You can use maybe Turner or brogged in as
trade bait in that scenario, but I don't know what package you're building,
what player you're you're going to go after. Maybe Gordon Hayward would have just
helped them a ton had they completed that Turner sign and trade this year,
because then if they'd still made the move for Leibert, I don't know if
they would have found that as necessary. But those two guys together feel like
they make a ton of cents, so I wouldn't blow it up. Would
be more love the story for the Indiana Pacers here. I would look to
see if you can get a different kind of creator with them in the backcard,
or even just float it at this point and say, hey, let's
see what we look like when TJ. Warren comes back. They do have
interesting contract decisions coming up with Warren, who slated to be a free agent
in twenty twenty two. You know they're not that far away from carous Labert's
free agency, which is going to be in twenty twenty three. I believe
so they have a lot of interesting decisions to make on their hand, But
I do think it's worth floating the current core a little bit more unless that
right move comes along. And then, to answer Meyer's question and full right
now, I probably go Nick's Pacers Hornets. Looking at the current state of
the teams, if they're at full strength, I might be inclined to go
Pacers, Nick's Hornets. Still feeling like the Hornets just missed, you know,
they upgrade the center position. Could they get a little deeper on the
wings, because they do have a lot of guards who can score. Maybe
I'm undervaluing a full strength LaMelo Ball. I do think at full health,
I might still be tempted to take the Pacers if you gave them more time
together. It feels like that team, as currently constructed again has the highest
immediate ceiling. I'm not talking about with you know, sophomore LaMelo Ball or
LaMelo Ball in his third season, Sugar Ray, Leonard, Roberto Duran,
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new Showtime Sports documentary The Kings, a four parts series premiering Sunday, June
sixth, only on Showtime. Jeff Nicholas, let's get to his He asked
three questions. Let's see if we can get to all of them here.
Jeff asked, first one, assuming they don't move up in the lottery,
what does what does Toronto have a path back to contention with the current core?
How much of their struggles is just this season being broken? I would
say a lot of it has to do with this season being broken. For
the Raptors, they have had under twenty games this season in which Siakam,
Lowry, Event Fleet, and an Anobia played together, So that's way less
than half the season. Right now, they are winning the minutes by six
point six points per one hundred possessions when those four are on the court,
and COVID seems to have hit them heavier at least in that condensed dose we
saw kind of leading into the All Star break, and a lot of teams
they've been dealing with more injuries. The other thing, I do not think
that we can discount even a little bit here is they are not playing in
Toronto. They're in Tampa. Every game is a road game, and I
do really think that impacts players. They're dealing with this truncated schedule. Now
you're away from home and they're not in the bubble per se. But it's
a different type of sequestering for them, just be just because they're not in
their familiar environment. And I think that means a great deal. And I
think if you put them in Toronto, they probably have a lot more success,
even with the health issues that they've sort of dealt with, and look,
some of the things might turn for them. They have a positive net
rating this season despite being so far under five hundred at the moment, there's
seven and twenty in games that enter crunch time and that could be a really
you know that a camp that is a huge issue, and if it turns,
it shows that they've been in a ton of close games. Even though
they're sort of in the back half of the league and crunch time and it's
play, they've at least been within somewhat striking distance towards the end of fourth
quarters. I would expect that they're they're going to see their performance improve if
they ever get to full strength, and how do you improve this roster from
there, because if you want to keep Kyle Lowry, you're not going to
have cap space this summer. After giving an Anobi his extension, which I
don't you have to sign him to that deal four years and seventy two at
the time, he would have cost a lot more. I was shocked they
got him for that little Can they add a big man? Can they add?
You know? It does kind of seem like maybe another taller shot creator.
They had that in Norman Powell, but he wasn't really bigger. He's
six three. They have Gary Trent Junior replaced him, was a little bit
taller at six five. How much is he going to cost too? If
you want to pay him? This summer has an insanely small cap hold though,
But I think looking at a center and then maybe just a different type
of wing player to go with an Anobi who's carded a lot of fives this
year. Anyway, those seem like they might be the two biggest needs for
them. And really that bigger player who might put consistent pressure on the rim.
I don't know if you're gonna get that in crunch time in the half
court on a relent, this continuous basis from a Pascal Siakam, and then
you know Lowry probably there, I guess the most trustworthy guy with Norm Powell
gone to count on him getting to the basket pred Van Fleet. His game
kind of stalls out a little bit before the rim. So I would say
this team from making real noise in Eastern Conference feel like they might be one
point five players short at the moment. I still think they're better than their
Their record shows substantially too, which is why I'm kind of hoping they keep
Kyle Lowry just to see what this team looks like if they're given better health,
if they get the play in Toronto next season. I still I'm a
big believer in Chris Bouche. I like Gary Trent Jr. A lot his
long term fit on the roster. It'd be fantastic if they could get into
Rashaun Holmes sweepstakes over a free agency. He would be a really good fit
for them. That might prove out of their price range, though, because
their their cap number is going to be all over the place depending on how
much Kyle lowry costume was. Cap hold alone is just going to obliterate your
tap space. So maybe he ends up signing for cheaper I don't know that
he takes that much of a pay cut. If it's a two year deal,
he could also leave without him. Then it does get a little trickier
because I do think that you're gonna still want everything I just mentioned. And
then someone else like that really helps, is that Malachi Flynn? Maybe,
so I think that that if he leaves, that's going to sort of change
the calculus of how they approached the offseason. They could technically also try and
get involved in a trade sweepstakes if a Bradley Beal becomes available. Don't know
how much of a risk they're going to take. Again, when you have
a player like that one, he would be one year out from free agency
next season. They do have They do have Siakam that they could dangle in
that deal, but picks and then even you know, are the Wizards interested
in Van Fleet and you view him as a little bit more expendable because you
have if Kyle Lowry comes back, is that something that you could look at,
you have an anobi excuse me too, in that situation if you end
up tearing it down That's where it gets interesting, because I don't this team
can't be bad is currently constructed. It's, you know, okay, trade
Pascal Siakam, but then you and let Kyle Awry walk, but then you
still have o Giannaobi and Fred vance Fleet. This team just isn't gonna be
bad. So I think they're closer than people realize at the moment, but
kind of taking that next step is going to be tricky from them unless we
really see just like a completely different level from from Pascal siaka Maybe he has
another jump left in him, or they're able to really you know, futs
and fiddle with their books and make a couple, you know, not star
just because those players aren't available in free agency, but really high high impact
additions in free agency. Jeff also asked does naumania be elites to spacing make
him a viable backup five for Miami. I would say maybe the problem here
is you're not going to count on him to be sort of this back line
rim protector. He's allowing opponents to shoot sixty seven point seven percent at the
basket so far this year. That's not great. And the minutes, the
scant minute he logged in Sacramento as the day Facto five did not go well
for them defensively. That being said, they worked defensely in minor doses during
his first two seasons with the King, so maybe there's something there. I
also think too, he does have a little bit of an fu to his
game where he's a little bit more physical when he's putting the ball on the
floor than people really talk about or credit him with. That might make him
just a little bit more of a mismatch at the five. So you might
as well test it out. But I don't know how many minutes you can
realistically get to there, And it also a lot of it probably depends on
who's playing the four in those minutes, So we know Bam won't be on
the floor and he would be considered of the five of that scenario. Anyway,
is this a situation where you're kind of leaning into defense all around him?
If you have a butler, a goodala are all on the are both
of them are on the court for those minutes and then maybe you have you
know as Victor Oladippo on the floor during those minutes and you just go with
Duncan Robinson. So you have three above average defenders. I'm if Oladippo is
healthy, and then Robinson and Bolita that could be an interesting five man combination
for them to test out. I assume they're going to have to go to
it moving forward. I don't want to say quite heavily, but fairly substantially,
because their their front line is sort of all over the place. We've
seen eighty lock backup four minutes this year, even though he'll probably be listed
as a wing. They have pressures to Chewa. Maybe they just have a
lot of faith in him. But you know Olink was he was playing next
to them and then also locking some backup five minutes as well, And so
it'll be on be Elitza I would think to assume part of that role.
I do not know how well it's it's going to work. I do think
the Heat have the personnel around him to make it more of an effective arrangement
with the elites at the five than the Kings did. The final question from
Jet, we're sticking with the Heat. Jimmy Butler is a top blank player
this season. That's a tough one. I'll say top twelve. A lot
of people are going to point to his efficiency on jumpers which are not great,
and he just doesn't take as many threes anymore. He's going to be
an all defensive player. There's a chance that maybe he could sneak in on
the top three defensive player of the year ballot. I'm not sure people are
going to listen there. He should certainly be in the top five of consideration
there. I think he is just ceaseless on that end of the floor,
and he can really shape the heats defense on his own, which is hard
when you're it's harder or when you're a wing player to have to have that
type of an impact on a team's identity. That's why you know Biggs are
so wanting to win Defensive Player of the Year. You have to credit that
facilitation is just through the roof. Over seven assists per game this season been
absolutely spectacular for them as a playmaker, and he could still he really puts
pressure on the basket, you trust him and crunch time, he can get
to the to the free throw line. It's just someone that you can build
a contender around as the the best player. And so i'd still yeah,
maybe some people I'm as low as fifteen, but I think he's firmly in
top twelve. Others might make an argument that he's clearly been top ten.
The ten to twelve range seems right though to me for him this year.
Let's move on to another question. This one comes from face of the painter.
I think I'm reading that correctly. What are the top Eastern teams in
terms of wide open three point percentage? So let's take a look at this
two different ways. If we're looking at raw wide open three point percentage,
and that's with defenders six or more feet away, here are the top five
teams, the Clippers, the Blazers, the Jazz, the Nets, and
the Celtics. If you're looking at the teams that create wide open three pointers
most often so the percentage of their three point attempts that come wide open,
the top five and that are the Jazz, the Thunder, the Raptors,
the Rockets, and the Pacers. Some of that, the Jazz being in
the top five of both makes complete sense. That's just been uh, you
know, their their mo forever under Quin Schneider, it seems teams like the
Thunder and the Pacers this seems like it's and even the Rockets. It speaks
more towards the talent on those teams where they're defenses aren't going to be as
afraid of leaving them wide open from three. Definitely when you're looking at the
thunder they're in. The Rockets might even feel that way about the Raptors.
That might be a vote as to give you know why the Raptors might not
rebound because they are hitting forty percent of their they're wide up in threes.
But looking at the raw percentages, the Clippers lead the NBA forty four point
four percent on wide open threes, and you know they might be shooting out
on contested threes. They've been lights out all year. The Portland Trailblazers are
second at forty three point seven percent, The Utah Jazz are third at forty
three point five, the Nets are fourth at forty three percent, and the
Celtics are fifth at forty one point seven percent. If anyone's curious as to
what the worst team in the league are, the Rockets are thirtieth and wide
open three point percentage thirty five point nine. The Wizards are thirty six point
one. Twenty Eighth is the Grizzlies at thirty six point seven. That's been
you know, they're the team where you look at and it's like, if
they had another shooter, we're hitting more of their three pointers. They would
be ridiculous. The Spurs are twenty seventh at thirty six point nine percent,
and then the Mavericks are just behind them. Some of their shooting numbers have
normalized since their cold start of the beginning of the season, but that is
you know, this is going to be something to watch. Next question,
we have one from Anthony Moore Latchie, which or excuse me, what a
big man should the Hornets pick up to try to spark some energy after two
big injuries the past month, referring to Gordon Hayward and the Melo Ball here,
Hayward's going to be out at least a month, it looks like,
and then LaMelo Ball with his tractured wrist. They haven't the Horns haven't ruled
him out returning this year, but it was initially expected that he was going
to be out for the season. A mid season pickup right now is going
to be difficult. We've already seen, you know, Gorgi Jang signed with
Brooklyn. Delane Deadman is still floating around out there. If anyone's interested.
There's DeMarcus Cousins as well, names that they could watch to be potentially bought
out on Whiteside's injured in Sacramento, and they kind of need to help at
the five Sneakily when you look at you know, they just traded away be
Elita. Marvin Bagley's injured, so they might not even want to buy him
out. Well, the Rockets buy out Kelly Olynnock there he's been starting because
Christian Wood's right ankle is acting up again for them. Mark Gasol seems really
unhappy in LA after the Lakers added Andre Drummond. I don't know if one
if they did buy him out, I don't know that he's going to go
to the Hornets. He'd probably want to land on more of a contender,
maybe Boston there. He sort of seems like the archetype of center that uh,
you know, definitely someone who could replace some of the stuff that Daniel
Tye does on defense end offense. He's clearly a better passer higher IQ Tys
could move a little bit or a lot better in space, So I don't
know how high up the Hornets would be on his list. You go to
free agency this summer and looking at the you know, trying to make this
long term since it is important that I think the Hornets take that view,
just given the makeup of their roster. Still a lot of their most important
players are relatively young, even though they do have Terry Rosier, Gordon Hayward,
etcetera, etcetera. I'm assuming they'll bring Cody zellerback. I don't know
how much Hill costs, and he can be really good, but he's just
not someone's gonna put consistent pressure on the rin give you a ton on offense,
and he's you know, has one of the most checkered health bills.
Big men, it seems like you can pencil amount for twenty plus absences every
single year. Rashaun Holmes is going to be a name. The Hornets should
have no problem getting to, you know, twenty plus million in cap space
if they're willing to renounce all of their own guys or and making carry DeVante
de Graham's hold pretty pretty easily. He won't be too huge his restricted free
agent hole. That is, so Rashaun Holmes will be in their price range
pretty go Any big will be in be in their price range. Just imagine
him running the floor with LaMelo ball on the court. Even working with Gordon
Hayward, I wonder if Charlotte, just because of the way that they play
their centers, would be open letting Rashaun Holmes shoot threes. We haven't really
seen that since I think he was in Phoenix, or maybe it was in
Philly for a minute. I'm a big advocate of that though. But he
he hits the offensive glass pretty hard. He's going to run the floor,
great pick and roll partner, and he's not going to make your defense.
But his mobility extends outside of the restricted area, and he's a he's a
solid room protector. They could also look at you know, it's Serge Ibaka
going to decline his player option. Daniel Tye is going to be a free
agent. He could be kind of interesting if depending on his price point.
Norland's, though, well, will be out there. He's been one of
the more underrated contributors in the league this year. It looks like he's trying
to catch and handle a marble on offense with the amount of times that he's
committing turnovers or just not you know, stone hands. He could also put
it that way, but he does a lot on defense. He can fly
all over the place, cover both sides of the pick and roll, good
room protector. There none of these players when you look at the free agents
profile, is these indefinite big picture solutions. Could they get in on the
Jared Allen sweepstakes? What would it take to get him out of Cleveland?
You have to imagine that the Calves traded for him with the intention of paying
at least eighteen million a year for him. Otherwise I don't necessarily know why
you would give up a first round pick and take on Prince's deal. Low
cost obviously there, but you trade for him knowing that he's going to cost
money. Do they try out Zach Collins who hasn't really been healthy the past
few seasons and also just hasn't played a twenty five in Portland? But in
theory a guy who can swim, protect the rim and space the floor.
We still haven't seen enough of his three point sample. He'll be a restricted
free agent. I don't know how much Portland's going to pay him though,
when they just don't have the sample size, especially when they have Nurk.
It's there. He'll be him going into the last year of his deal and
is very affordable. But those two have played. Last time I checked those
who have played sub three hundred possessions together ever and just you know, injuries
the way it worked out with nurk ch and now Collins and their kits was
injured for a good point of this season. Two. I don't really look
at the free agency class though. Do they go after Mitchell Robinson if the
Knicks make him a restricted free agent? That would be interesting. So there
were definitely options there this season, though, look at you know, do
you want to try Boogie out because it does seem like they are bent on
making the playoffs, but he's do I think Boogie belongs in the NBA,
probably, But he's just not a plug and play guy like the idea of
a Gorgi Jang. And that's sort of the issue with Andre Drummond is,
yeah, he's pretty good. If you have to give him a certain amount
of post ups or you know, let him dribble the ball and deal with
sort of his acting and you know, you know, his peeking and valuing
defensive engagement, that can be a little bit of a headache. The other
thing that they could do, and I don't think this is going to be
addressed this season. You know, maybe Otto Porter becomes available, and do
you just want to keep playing small and you view him as a four and
so that's just gonna bump up more the minutes that you can use with PJ.
Washington at the five, or you just you know, you play Otto
Porter or PJ. Washington Miles Bridges together and you just mix and match the
defensive combinations there. And you can maintain that sort of thought process in free
agency, where hey, do we look at guys who are really fours by,
like Kelly Olnik will be a free agent this summer as well. If
that's someone that interests you, I probably want someone with more of a defensive
punch than him. I thought PJ. Tucker would have been a sneaky good
trade target for them at the beginning of the year. Can you try out
your Michael Green on the smaller end. He's a player option for this summer.
I wouldn't be a fan of Bolita here, seems like he'd be overstretched.
Lowry marking and no James Johnson if he's just cheap, just to play
him more at the five and somebody who could theoretically handle the ball. I
really like Kem Birch he's listed under free agent power forwards, but he's more
of a center. He spent minutes with Vouch in Orlando. He can take
the occasional three. Don't know if he gives you a ton rebounding when he
is going to be the only big on the court, but he could really
move on defense. He's going to pancake dudes on screens. That's a name
that they could look at. John Collins name will certainly be floated, and
he's improved so much defensively that I don't I doubt they would have any problem
paying him interesting to free agency. I don't know that the Hawks are gonna
let him get away. They would have moved him in my opinion if they
weren't going to keep him. One of my sirens songs, Jared Vanderbilt plays
a lot of four. I would like to see him just at the five,
a lot of chaotic energy with him. And then finally for the Hornets,
can we unleash Burnon Carrey Jr. He's torn it up in G League
minutes a lot this year and he's not injured to the best minaledge. I
think he actually logged just like under a minute and a half or under two
minutes in there in their last game. Just try it out. You don't
really have Yeah, I know you're trying to get in the playoffs, but
that be you know, you have to just play with they had you been
dealt with if you're not going to add this mid season big it's not that
important to get is not beyond bo minutes still in my estimation, And you
do have some cushion. You know, you're your fourth in the East as
I record this, and you want to if you want to avoid the play
in, you only have a game cushion. But if you're just trying to
be in the top ten, which I think when you're missing a melo ball,
Gordon Hayward like, you have to be satisfied with that. You have
a five game cushion there, so you're not necessarily danger of that. Try
some wonky things then at the five no other immediate name spring to mind.
And I did just go through a ton of free agents. I'm assuming that's
whether they will spend their money most of it or a good amount of it
in free agency this summer. Chris Ballard asked what are the mathematical odds due
to strength of schedule and probability that the Pistons end up with the number one
overall draft pick. So there's this wouldn't be a good way to do it,
and I'm not dumping on the question. Because of the flattened lottery odds,
the Pistons have the third worst record in the NBA right now to end
the season, they have one of the twelve easiest schedules technically, but they
don't play themselves until that's going to be inflated a little bit. I think
you look at this as they are clearly going to be a bottom three team.
They've designed themselves that way and they have. You know, there are
three games in front of them, the twenty eight worst team in the league
by record and the Calves, who of the twenty seventh worst record. That
would then mean that they're going to have a fourteen percent chance at getting the
number one pick, and they'll have a fifty two point one percent chance at
getting a top four pick with the way those odds are flattened. The thing
to really watch though, is can they drop out, because that's really you
have a basically a coin toss chance of getting a bottom excuse me, a
top four pick. If you're one of the three worst teams in the league.
That's you know, that's great. But if you're going to be one
of the three worst teams in the league, you definitely want a top three
pick. To me, though, looking at their schedule, it doesn't seem
particularly easy. It's, you know, it's just mid end. My guess
would be that they end up with one of the three worst records and they
get a fourteen percent chance of having that number one overall pick in the lottery
and drafting Kid Cuttingham, who everyone is so enamored with. I need to
watch more of too as we get closer to the draft. Let's go to
Carson. I asked, why can't the East ever seemed to competitively balance with
the West? Is it an ownership thing? I think, well, I
think yes, it's it can be a you know, the people who are
running the team thing. I do think that location has a lot to do
with it, where if you're going to the Western Conference, there will be
free agents, you know, Golden State just being in a good market,
a good warm weather climate. Free agents, if they have money, are
more likely to flock there. I guess it falls apart because you actually have
the Lakers teams but then no one's flocking in Sacramento. We have seen veterans
go there though when they're willing to give up money. I think that just
contributes to it. The other thing is, right now, when you sort
of look at the top five players in the league, there's just a chance
that are three of them on the West Coast, Steph, Lebron and then
Yokich in the Western Conference or teams are just going to be naturally one more
driven to obtain great talent and too, like that's going to be more appealing
for free agents to go to and look another by the way, place that
underrated place. And it's not like they signed big free agents all the time,
but the Phoenix Suns there, you know they were they LaMarcus Aldrich had
their attention at one point, so so to Blake Griffin. And so there
are players that want to be there. And then Luka don I just left
him off from talking about the top five June. If we go as far
as the top ten players, like, look at the teams. You have
the players, you have Lillard, you have Yokich, you have Luka don
Chich, you have Lebron and a d on the same team. When they're
when they're healthy, you have Steph. It does feel like those teams have
stars. The Clippers with Klaw and then even PG. I wouldn't call him
top ten this season, but just as an example, those are guys that
one forced their teams by themselves to be hyper competitive when it comes to acquiring
talent, so you would expect their teams to be better. That being said,
this is not a competitive imbalance that has existed only this season. There
was a time in two thousand nineteen where it looked like maybe the East and
caught up. James Harden's now in the East, and when you do kind
of look at top end talent, a lot of them have congregated on the
nets. But having James Harden in the East now having if once Kevin Durant
is healthy, Jannie is still in the East, there it feels like it
feels like the East can compete looking at raw star power. For the most
part, I think even when you look at the all star pools, it
does feel like the heat still kind of the East, excuse me, trails
in top end talent where it's like you you have some bonuses, but you
don't have as many, you know, like I just name where it's like
the Dame Where's He's not top five guy, but he's probably closer. He's
way closer to the top ten than he is to the top thirty or top
twenty five when you look at someone like Sabonis. So there's that, and
I'll stand by the market thing. But as Carson mentioned himself, a lot
of it has to do with how these teams are run. And you look
at teams, and yes, it's inherently harder on small markets. I want
to make that clear. And I already said that the East does a plenty
of top end talent. We don't be Benson, It's Kevin Rant, James
Harden, Yannis LaMelo, Ball is gonna be up at one point. You
have Jimmy Butler, Bamatabile, already, Trey Young. So there is again,
there is that, there is that star power. I just you know,
Julius Randall, the Sabonis, they don't they're not on that same level
as what it feels like the East. But then you can counter with gods
in the West, excuse me, then you can counter with, well,
Boston has Tatum and Brown. So it does feel like the talent depth is
there, but the teams, the quality of teams. The Knicks are part
of this problem. They're in the flagship market and they've been terribly run up
until this season, and there's still gonna be questions about their front office,
the piece from the New York Post about how it's run, and then even
now where it seems like they've leaned really heavily into the now over development and
that's this is a feel good story this season. They have to build off
of it because playing five hundred basketball, you don't get a medal for that,
especially in the Eastern Conference, where a team like the Hornets is in
fourth by being two games over five hundred. But there's the Hornets even until
this like they basque and mediocrity. Basically they have you know, the Gordon
Hayward signing was lampoon, but it's worked out with LaMelo Ball. They haven't
necessarily operated as a normal rebuilding team since they've gotten Kemba Walker, and you
can't. I don't want to be the heartless, callous person that says,
well, just just tank for two or three seasons, accumulates many top draft
picks as possible, and go from there. But we've seen teams of small
markets be more methodical about it, like Oklahoma City. Maybe Sam Prescy's built
up more good real with both the team governors. Then also in the fan
base because the thunder were so good for so many years. Even after you
know, Kevin Durant left, they were they were still relevant. I mean
after Russell Westbrook left, they made the playoff push with was Chris Paul.
So you know, the Hornets, the Knicks, the Bulls especially one of
the worst run organizations as well. The Wizards too. Yes, you have
top end talent now and Bradley Beal, Russell Westbrook's playing really well. You're
still on this season fourteen games under five hundred, and you've been stuck in
like this middle middle class sub middle class for too many seasons. The Calves
when they don't have Lebron, I'm very intrigued by their young core. I
as anyone knows when we did the Redrift, I like Isaaco Coral is still
a lot Colin Sexton. Both Adam and I are big fans of Darius Garland.
They have like an interesting, youthful base and I'll have another good pick
this year. Even the Pistons, where it seems like I don't know,
would you say they're one of the worst run organizations over the past however many
years, maybe when you're looking at the Josh Smith deal, then going all
in for Blake Griffin, even maxing out Drummond when it was if he in
the moment, whether he was a franchise cornerstone type. I think it does
have a lot to do with the teams where we don't point at teams in
the West and it doesn't feel like they have the same volume of it.
Yes, the Suns until semi semi recently, the Kings, of course,
the Warriors before STEPH became STEPH. We're probably in there, and they might
be in there now. You could throw the rockets in there right now.
There the Timberwolves. So there there are teams in each conference, but it
does feel like the East has more of those, at least organizations that are
more content to wallow in the middle class or ones who have failed to even
get there on a more prolonged basis, where in the West it does feel
like it's there's less staying power at the bottom and it's more of a cycle.
We'll see if that changes now, because it does feel like the Timberwolves
are always in that discussion as well as the Kings. Maybe the Rockets are
there now the Warriors who seem to be taking step backs, but you look
at the Kings. The Warriors don't don't feel like teams that are going to
be there forever. The Kings are in play in territory even though they're probably
they might be the hardest team to figure out this year. That's a totally
unrelated topic. This was a great question, Carson, and it's probably worth
a podcast undo itself. Next question, Jim asks who are some of the
more underrated two way players? So I have to confess. When I was
looking at this before I fired up the podcast machine, I wasn't sure if
you were talking if Jim was talking about players on two way contracts or players
who are considered just two way players valuable at both ends of the floor.
So I have a list of both. I'll spend I'll throw a few names
out here for the two way guys. But yo Utah want the Nabe comes
to mind, someone who just defends seems like a bigger than he actually is,
but he's really more wingsized than not. You have Garrison Matthews in Washington,
that that dude can really shoot it, and he moves fast with the
ball in his hands. I'm convinced there's more than just a shooting specialist in
there from him. I'm very intrigued by Nathan Knight in Atlanta. You know,
get sporadic minutes, but a five who has shown that he can get
some provides you some rim protection at points, but an also space the floor.
That's always going to intrigue me. The biggest one for me would be
wanted to Skane Anderson. I don't think he receives enough credit for what he's
done in Golden State this year. It might be one of the most underrated
players in the league, probably in part because of his sub seven hundred minute
sample. I don't know if that's because the Warriors weren't shut the league was
going to change the two way player rules at this point, but he should
be playing more. He's shooting a good enough clip on his threes. Its
shown that he can keep the ball moving. There are still questions what would
he do in a higher volume offensive role because getting him to shoot more it
seems like it's been pulling teeth. But he is so high energy mixed with
absurd range on the defensive end right now in the Warriors are locked in,
Draymond Green is the only defender who's more versatile for them. This is per
Basketball in Decks matchup data, but wants Scona. Anderson has spent at least
fifteen percent of his time the court guarding every single position. That's wild.
He's guarded more forwards than any other spot. But to have that versatility.
Among the three hundred of players who've logged at least five hundred minutes this season,
they're only a handful that have a better positional versatility rating, and that
again comes from Basketball Index. If you're looking for two way players that I
think are underrated, and you know players who play both ends of the floor,
I think someone to look at this season and which kind of funny Reggie
Bullock. I think he's someone who really has given an incredibly underrated two a
punch this year. His three point volume is ticked up where they've really given
him the green light. He's been at basically over seven attempts per game for
the past month or so, and he gives you that floor spacing on a
team that desperately needs it. Not gonna do anything with the ball in his
hands. But that's just that's immaterial to me when you look at everyone else
who's already on the next from Julius Randall to Emmanuel Quickly. Of course,
you also have RJ. Barrett there as well. What he's done defensively for
them, I mean he's taking on He's not a point guard, which so
this is going to be skewed. He's not guard number one options the most,
but he's guarding number two options more than anyone else on the Knicks right
now, and he spent a good amount of time on number one options as
well. So you just look at the breadth of a defensive assignments, the
difficulty of them that he's had to saddle himself with in New York, and
he's been an unmitigating success. He's going to be a free agent this year
and is making basically no money at the moment. Remember they tried to.
They could have signed him to more, but they initially sign him to more
and then he had the I think it was a neck injury or back injury,
I can't remember which one, and they restructured the deal to where he
right now is making four point two million. He's going to cost substantially more
than that. I would argue another player who sort of comes to mind would
be as I started, Kyle Anderson of the Grizzlies. This season, he's
done a really good job. He's honed his wide open three point touch,
where he's shooting about lee average from there, hitting more than fifty percent of
his mid rangers over forty seven percent of his floaters. He plays with a
cadence that is all his own, and it does look like his game unfurls
and slow motion, but he doesn't give defenders much time to think. He's
pump faking and barreling disarms with misdirections, and it's passing. He's a really
good passer. He can do things with either hand, you know, pass
the ball with either hand, dribble it with either hand. I've written this
before. His on ball body mechanics don't make any sense to me. He
looks like he's sort of jerking or flowling while he's dribbling in eight different directions,
like one of those inflatable tube men that are building in the wind outside
a sketchy car dealership. The quirkiness works, though, and he can still
draw shooting fouls more often, I would say than people who don't put him
as pressure on the rim should. And then he has just a he has
just a wide range on defense as well. He can guard some wings guards,
he can put them on some bigger players, and he's just going to
subtly pile on the box score. And you know, looking at the past,
going back since twenty twelve thirteen, there're only four other players who have
maintained his current Kyle Anderson's current true shooting, defensive, rebound, assist,
steel and block percentages for an entire season. Jannis, Kevin Durant, Draymond
Green, and Nikolayok. That's a hell of a club to be a part
of. And I'm not sure if he's still considered underrated, but it might
be time to start talking about Dario. Sarch is more of a two way
impact. The Suns are getting away by using him in minutes at the five
important bits Minji. He's closed some games there when eton is roller coasting are
all over the place. He's we know what he can do on the ball.
The Sun times he even gotten his best shooting yet, but he can
get there. There's sort of an I mentioned this four I can't remember who
was talking about. But there's in fu to his game too. That was
the Elitesa. There's an fu to sarch Is game too, Like he can
really not the most efficient post scre but he can put it two bigger dudes.
So he does a lot on offense, has those ball skills, Ken
space the floor even though with three point clip isn't fall it especially high rate.
But defensively, however, he's done. He's done a lot for the
Suns where it feels like he's when you watch him versus Eighten, there's more
lateral mobility there, or at least decisiveness. And I know the folks on
the Timeline podcast another Blue Iro pod have talked about how he always seems to
be in the right spot. It is not like it is. It is
part of that, but it also just seems like he's moving better than eight
and it's going to make more decisions and he's going to get back to the
rim a lot more and he can come higher out without getting burned. Where
Aten's been lauded for switchability, but it seems like if you pull him out
far enough, he's going to be at a disadvantage. And I'm not saying
that Sarge is just a great rim productive right now because he's not, but
he's giving them more optionality at the five, and so that's a big deal.
I don't know if he would still count as underrated, but that is
a name to consider anyone who's interested in a little bit of breaking news here.
It looks like the Clippers are signing four time all started Mark his cousins
to it a ten day, ten day contract. We'll see how that works
out there, but that takes him off the boards for the It's a team
that I was just talking about before, so we'll have to see what happens.
Let's see we can get to a couple more questions, though Miroslav shook
as is Embeed ever gonna get some foul calls Inbeed leads the league in free
throw attempts for thirty six minutes. So I'm not sure what the impetus behind
this question is. If I miss something on his return in Saturday, I
did not see that game, is that he's fouling too much. But here's
here's what I'll say with Biggs, and we've seen it with Lebron too,
is that because they're built the way they are it looks like they're almost not
getting fouled, or maybe that's how it looks to rest or rest don't deem
contact as impactful enough to think that it's a foul on them, and that's
not you know, that's not their fault. But that's just my that's my
conspiracy theory here is that people think big bodies aren't as affected by a normal
amount of contact. And I would argue that it's it's with Lebron at times.
I'm not saying, I'm not saying with absolute definity that I think well
embiid or Lebron is unfairly officiated. That's just something where it feels like James
Harden is able to sell contact more than a guy like Joel Embid or Lebron
James. So that's all I have for you, Mir Slash, sorry,
Noah odage As Also, what someone who hosts a fantastic podcast himself stick the
sports check that out realistically? Is there a successful Knicks team in the future
that features either Frank Nilikina, Kevin Knox or Obie Toppin as cornerstones are what's
the ceiling on those three? Feel like he's trying to pull my heart strings
here by asking about frank Nilikina as cornerstones, I don't know. I think
Toppin is going to have the chance to come closest because he's still so much
of a mystery box. I think the Knicks are going to need to put
the ball on his hands a little bit more, and he's gonna need to
just move better period on the defensive end. That was it was always going
to be his weakness coming in, but this there's been minutes where he's on
the corporate it looks untenable. So I think he is the best chance of
being on a good Knicks team as a cornerstone. I think of the three
Frankie Lakina can actually be the most helpful to a really good team long term.
Looking at what he's able to do defensively, ones, twos and threes.
He can legitimately match up with those guys. We've seen him compete against
James Harden in the past. We've seen him compete against tough wing scores in
the past. I get that he needs to figure out his offense to demand
or to have just a role carved out, a consistent role. He's shot
the three ball better, buying largs this year, but it's just in such
smaller volume, and there's a smoothness to his game on the balls in his
hands. I'm matamous. When you watch him and he's working off the dribble,
the decision making just isn't there. It's not the same, it's not
consistent, and he'll he'll take these bizarrow shots or he'll turn the ball over.
He needs to be more decisive in what he's doing. There are you're
gonna pull up for a float, or you're trying to get to the rim,
or you're dumping the ball off. It works against him that I don't
think he has the vision necessary to be an actual point guard. I also
think actual consistent reps would would go a long way. I think you have
to go with Toppin as a second most likely after him, and some people
will put him first again because of the relative unknowness to what he could do.
Still, Kevin Malock still intrigues me. Just it's not because of what
he did in Summer League that one time where that might have been not might
if it was overblown. The efficiency was not great. He has more to
offer offensively on the ball, but he's you know, as someone you wanted
to use as a guy in the corners. I think he has value there
on offense. Can he improves cutting a little bit beyond a team that's gonna
utilize him more in those situations? And then what are you gonna get from
him defensively because he can be pushed over. But he's shown that he like
there is matchup range there when you look at his body type. So these
are all players who still intrigued me. Everyone knows on this podcast. I'm
most intrigued by Frankie Lakena. But Obi toppin is is if we're looking at
this discussion, this discussion, excuse me, is the swing piece if you're
looking at natural cornerstone og O g RJ. Barrett is certainly in that conversation.
The Knicks have to hope that he is a cornerstone. Do they have
a second one on the team? And maybe it's Julius Randall? I just
don't know. You know, his contracts up after next year. How much
does he call us to keep? Is there is this lightning in a bottle
to any extent just because it is one season and I'm not he's been He's
been great this year. I think he's gonna surprise people with the number of
all NBA votes he yets and arguably deserves. His defense feels like it's ticked
off as late of late, but it's been better this season. I just
don't think you look at the Knicks and say, hey, RJ. Barrett
and Julius Randall can be your two best players on a championship team. You
either need that third guy who is actually a cornerstone, not just a nice
complimentary player like a Reggie Bullock or an Alec Burks, or is it am
manual quickly. I don't know that anyone, aside looking at their young players
from RJ. Barrett, is legitimate building block as that that franchise building block
material. Maybe Mitchell Robinson is still there, but I think we've sort of
seen enough to know that it would be awful tough to It's tough to do
that in general, build a team around a big who doesn't create his own
offense or set up for anybody else. But he's not Rudy Gobert either,
Like he's not transcendent on the defensive end at least yet. Maybe the Knicks
are some of their parts which can be in a good way. You look
at quickly. He's still intriguing. What is topping it? Does he space
the floor, give you a lot of ball skills? Cook defenders off the
dribble? Does he become close to a league average defender? I might wage
against that happening. You have RJ. Barrett to go with those two.
So between RJ. Barrett Quickly Topping, like, do they amount to like
high end multiple high end cornerstones together. Maybe we're gonna have to see.
But the Knicks might be done getting high draft picks. It's they're firmly in
the middle of the Eastern Conference right now, and it looks like they're going
to be entrenched in that playoff picture, not just you know, they have
a very tough schedule to close out the season, not much of a cushion.
They're in the play in territory right now. Maybe that's where they finish.
Their future is. It's still pretty iffy, and I think this season
has to be resounding success for them, playing with a rhyme and reason for
how good their defense has been. Still still top three, there is a
method to who they're letting take three pointers for the most part. You look
at it improvement from Randall from Barrett, Mitchell, Robinson before his injury was
fouling left and less. And he's still healthy. He's still forced when healthy,
and you could move him into that you know, quickly, Robinson,
rg Bett, Obe Topping. Maybe none of them are going to be developed
into a top twenty five NBA player and being the type of cornerstone. But
what does that together get you? Because you can still be a really good
team without that player. I think you would just until you have that at
least top twenty five guy, and then you really, if you're really gonna
have one of them, you need to surround him with a hell of a
lot of depth. You're probably going to fall outside that championship discussion. I
think that's a good spot to end. Apologies to anyone's questions we did not
get to. Thank you to everyone who hit us with questions on Twitter.
Thank you for everyone who continues to slide in the DMS with questions. Those
are great. Please remember to rate, review, and subscribe to this podcast
on iTunes even if you don't use iTunes. That helps us out a bunch.
Also, just download every episode and subscribe if you're listening to this podcast
wherever you do, get your podcast, and remember to come join us on
Locker Room at four pm Eastern Time every Sunday. We try and have a
lot of fun and hopefully you enjoy it as well. But until next time,
I'll get the shout out too, since we just talked about him,
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