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Yeah, okay, Well, we
just need to understand it's a basic thesis.

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Inflation is going up. Printing Milton
freedmen define this printing is literally the

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cause of inflation. And so there's
not inflation in any society we're printing doesn't

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occur. And so if we understand
that that's true, and there are things

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that relative to us dollars are going
to be going up and inflating, I

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think it's important that we understand.
Commodities are the place that we generally speaking

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see inflation the most. And so
think of oil and gas, think of

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metal miners, think of metals.
In general, commodities are an important component

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to this. Food actually would also
be going up. You're listening to Carrie

10
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:43,719
Lets's Financial Survival Network, where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere

11
00:00:43,719 --> 00:00:49,920
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12
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00:00:54,640 --> 00:01:03,959
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Network now more than ever. And welcome

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00:01:04,159 --> 00:01:08,400
you are listening to watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host. Carry

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Let's hey, we're we're already passed. We're almost done with the half of

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September inflation numbers. Well, let's
talk with David Strazuski, financial expert.

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Question is David, is inflation coming
back and is it here to stay it?

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Well, greed to be with you
is always carry you know, a

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couple of things to note. I
was just in New York and the pc

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numbers come out. So for those
that don't track it, that's the Federal

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Reserve's favorite way of identifying is inflation
here, is it trending backward? Et

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cetera. So obviously since July last
year, we've been seeing, you know,

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numbers trend back down, but we
just saw an uptick or an increase

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of point two percent. So tomorrow
and the following day we've got CPI PPI

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coming out here, So those are
going to be some pretty telling numbers right

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now. In my opinion, there's
no question that CPI is going to be

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going up. There's no question that
inflation is back right now. And the

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big driver of that ultimately is gasoline
and oil prices. You know, what's

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happened since uh, you know,
Biden has gotten into the White House is

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that we have really restricted oil production, oiel manufacturing exploration, permits to those

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places, Keystone pipeline, you get
the picture. But what happened here this

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last year is that we've had oil
come down about fifty percent. And the

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reason for that was, well,
it was a midterm election year and things

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weren't looking so great for the incumbent
in his party, and so he ended

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up draining the strategic petroleum reserve.
And so here we are with half of

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the strategic petroleum reserve, bringing us
all the way back to nineteen eighty five

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levels right now. But how they
brought inflation down was by saturating the market

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with oil that wasn't being produced.
It was already refined, it was already

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finished, and so you know,
you add more supply, you can bring

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down the price. And so you
know, those that are buying got cheaper

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oil. Well that's done. And
so now we're seeing oil prices rise,

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which I think are just going to
continue. I don't think the Fed's going

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to come even close to getting to
two percent. I think that we're going

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to now see a leg up.
This is this is inflationary, not deflationary.

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I don't care who is out there
and saying all this stuff is deflationary

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right now and you know, the
soft landing scenario is going to be showing

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up that the facts don't add up
to to bear that case out when you

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look at the macro ideas, when
you see how all the plate tectonics are

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shifting right now in our society,
so inflation is certainly going to be coming

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up. That is bad news for
the average consumer today, who as of

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July, we've just hit one trillion
dollars of credit card debt, and of

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course most of those credit cards are
actually at thirty percent APR rates. I

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think the Macy's card is thirty four
percent, just as a simple example.

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But people are out buying, but
they're putting it on the card. That's

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not an economy that's showing a whole
lot of strength right now. So I'm

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bearish on where things are going.
I mean, I think that we're going

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to get a slight drop here and
then you know, maybe that did gets

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picked up because of the sentiment currently, but it's going to be short lived

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as we head into October. And
then one last point here, and that

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is very few people today are expecting
the government shutdown that's about to occur here

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in less than three weeks because our
fiscal New Year as America is October the

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first, and if Congress doesn't pass
the bills to fund everything, well,

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then the government shuts down. This
wouldn't be the first time that that happened.

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But this is the people's House,
and the House has the purse strings,

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and they're very concerned about the fact
that we have thirty three trillion of

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debt. Here in the next couple
of days it'll hit that number. But

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Janet Gellen just announced that we need
two trillion dollars more to finish the new

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year the second half of the year. I ran the calculation on the one

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point nine trillion that she says that
we need. If you divide that by

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one hundred and eighty two point five
days, which is half a year,

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that says that we need an additional
ten point four billion dollars every single day

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for the end of the year just
to keep Uncle Sam's doors open. I

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don't think this is a strong moment. Printing is inflationary. They're going to

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have to turn on the printing press. Well, what choice do they have.

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There's no place else to get the
money. I mean, I guess

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they can sell more tvills to somebody
to the banks. Banks aren't real happy

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taking on more of it. We
got a surplus of death and probably not

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enough dollars to chase it. So
where do you get it? Then it's

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a great question. They don't have
a real option, you know, I

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think the big question is are they
going to raise rates one more time?

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I don't think it really matters.
What they're really going to start focusing now

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is quantitative tightening, and so they're
going to just start running off the balance

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sheet. They're down a trillion right
now from that. But of course,

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you know, they build out the
banks here after the Silicon Valley uh situation,

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and they said that they would trade
these you know, these bonds that

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are worth about you know, twenty
percent less, they'd trade them, you

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know, dollar for dollars long they
were purchased for. Yeah, so you

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know, every time that they run
off a trillion dollars in debt, it's

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the equivalent of increasing the Fed funds
rate by one percent rough math, but

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it's but it's pretty accurate. H
So you know, right now we're still

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four and a half trillion dollars above
where we were pre COVID nineteen pandemic here.

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So you know, if they really
do what they say, and they're

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going to be reducing uh, you
know, all this liquidity that's in the

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market that tightens things up even more
so. So I think this spells big

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trouble for the banks. I think
this spells big trouble for corporate America.

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This spells big trouble for the consumer
right now. Who you know, Hey,

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if we start getting unemployment to rise
to you know, the four percent

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that Pale thinks, I think it's
going to five or even as high six

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percent. That doesn't just slow down
because it goes up just a little bit.

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If things start slipping, that's momentum
that begins to move in that direction.

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And you know, we've just really
got a lot of crosswinds right now

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that are just causing you know,
a lot of this to feel a little

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bit weird. I guess you're in
Florida. So the analogy of a hurricane

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is probably a good one. A
tropical swirms off on the distance, it

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gets stronger and stronger, and then
ultimately shows up someday. Who knows when,

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how far it goes down, how
long it'll be down for. No

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one knows those three answers. But
we do know that these things are coming.

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This is the time to prepare.
Well, you know what, they

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say, a trillion here, a
trillion there. Pretty soon you're talking about

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real money exactly. All right,
So what does that mean for the investing

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public? What are you supposed to
do? Yeah? Okay, Well,

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we just need to understand it's a
basic thesis. Inflation is going up.

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Printing Milton freedmen define this. Printing
is literally the cause of inflation. And

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00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:09,319
so there's not inflation in any society
we're printing doesn't occur. And so if

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we understand that that's true, and
there are things that relative to us,

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dollars are going to be going up
and inflating, I think it's important that

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we understand. Commodities are the place
that we generally speaking see inflation the most,

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and so think of oil and gas, think of metal miners, think

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of metals. In general, commodities
are an important component to this. Food

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actually would also be going up because
of the cost of gas, and that

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diesel is so much more expensive.
It takes way more to farm, it

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takes way more to make and produce
the copper that all these evs need,

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et cetera. And oh, by
the way, China has better than ninety

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five percent of the world's harvested copper
right now. And you know, so

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we allowed them to essentially have a
monopoly because they're the ones producing everything.

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So where do we go. That's
a very difficult question to to answer.

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I do think that that's based upon
someone's risk tolerance. It's based upon uh,

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you know, their thesis, the
time that they need in order to

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be able to recover. But you
know, the goal here is to buy

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low, sell high. This is
not a time, in my personal opinion,

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to be taking significant amounts of risk. This is a time to be

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paring back, to be preserving,
to be waiting for the right opportunities.

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But if you want to buy on
the DIT, I think that that can

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work out, just feather in over
time dollar cost averaging. You know,

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there definitely are stocks and things that
should ultimately work out in longer terms.

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But just understand the fact that the
market has run really high this year,

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specifically in the nadsdack all that all
those tech stocks which are doing the amazing

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you know, things like AI which
we love so much and can ultimately change

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the world and really actually bring inflation
down because input costs would would would go

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down if you know, you can
do more with less. But but those

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those tech stocks are are quite overvalued. If we look at things like Schiller's

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00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:07,440
cape ratio, which has always been
a good indicator of where we are being

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overvalued undervalued, you know, we're
looking at overvalued right now by about fifty

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five percent. I mean, that's
that's a big deal. You look at

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Buffett which is you know, total
market to GDP, and we're overvalued by

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00:10:18,639 --> 00:10:22,799
about the same about fifty something percent, you know. And of course if

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00:10:22,799 --> 00:10:26,519
GDP slips because we actually go into
recession, then that's going to look even

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00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,840
worse. So again, this is
a time I think that we can deploy

149
00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:35,120
cash. We can do some safe
assets, but but real big caution here,

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00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:39,639
super big caution bonds are potentially the
worst investment that you could make as

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00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:43,639
we look forward here over the next
two years or so. And the reason

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00:10:43,639 --> 00:10:46,879
why I make such a strong point
to say that is this, if less

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00:10:46,879 --> 00:10:52,279
people are buying US treasuries and we're
less credit worthy here today because we just

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00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,840
got downgraded, we're going to be
shutting down here in the next few weeks.

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That means that it's going to be
more expensive for us to borrow.

156
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:01,639
There are a lot fewer buyers of
US treasuries right now, yet we have

157
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,320
to issue over ten billion a day
in order to be able to to keep

158
00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:09,879
our doors open. This is all
very inflationary. And so as as we

159
00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,519
look at the collective world, you
know, hey, India, it looks

160
00:11:13,519 --> 00:11:16,879
to be pretty solid. They're making
the new iPhone right now. They I

161
00:11:16,919 --> 00:11:22,120
think that they've got a tremendous history
in front of them here that might be

162
00:11:22,159 --> 00:11:24,879
a multidecade trend. But you know, the dollars are going out of China,

163
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,639
dollars are going out of the US, and there's just a lot of

164
00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:33,360
cross currents here today that are making
things confusing. So I would say,

165
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,039
don't don't give into fomo the fear
of missing out. This is the time

166
00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,840
to have patience. This is the
time to have, you know, a

167
00:11:39,919 --> 00:11:46,440
real sound idea of where to be
going right now, because these bonds lose

168
00:11:46,519 --> 00:11:50,759
money in five different ways, and
I've got more information on that if people

169
00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:54,559
are interested in it. But ultimately
I see interest rates popping up. That's

170
00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:58,519
going to be really bad for those
who are near near entering retirement, looking

171
00:11:58,519 --> 00:12:03,120
for safe and looking for anchors.
And so there are alternatives. They just

172
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,840
got to know where to find them, all right. So based on what

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00:12:05,879 --> 00:12:09,440
you're saying, then precious metals should
be getting ready, huh. I believe

174
00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,519
so. In fact, I think
that the silver to gold to silver ratio

175
00:12:13,759 --> 00:12:18,559
is eighty three to one as of
this morning, and you know, eighty

176
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:20,759
three ounces of silver for every one
ounce of gold. I will personally do

177
00:12:20,799 --> 00:12:26,120
that deal all day, every day. There's no way that that those levels

178
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:30,360
can can remain just based on simple
supply and demand factors. They can actually

179
00:12:30,399 --> 00:12:33,000
produce nine ounces of silver for every
one ounce of gold. Well, it's

180
00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:37,279
eighty three to one, So I'd
say that there's a pretty nice rise that

181
00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:41,960
that's that silver could find here.
But you know, copper is something also

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00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:46,840
that's that's very much needed, especially
for going more green, and we've got

183
00:12:46,879 --> 00:12:50,799
solar and all the evs that are
that are getting uh, you know,

184
00:12:50,879 --> 00:12:54,879
so much demand right now, especially
with this quote unquote Inflation Reduction Act and

185
00:12:54,919 --> 00:12:58,720
all the buying that's taking place.
So you know, I look at copper

186
00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:01,840
here too. So metal myners are
are a good option. You can use

187
00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:09,000
indexes, which leverages experts perspectives.
Although you know there are you know,

188
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,879
individual names that are going to probably
you know, do pretty darn well,

189
00:13:13,519 --> 00:13:16,480
just given how their position and some
of the specialties that they have. But

190
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,000
you know, some of this is
uh uh, you know, when is

191
00:13:20,039 --> 00:13:22,720
that exactly going to happen? Because
I thought it was going to happen earlier

192
00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:28,440
than this. But yeah, the
point is it'll come. Yeah, sooner

193
00:13:28,519 --> 00:13:33,200
or later, it's bound to.
So what else profits in an inflationary environment?

194
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:37,960
Real estate or residential real estate?
What do you think? Okay,

195
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:41,279
so what's interesting with real estate right
now is you know, when you go

196
00:13:41,399 --> 00:13:48,000
from a record low real estate mortgage
environment to raising rates faster than rates have

197
00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:52,159
ever been raised before, you kill
both the supply and the demand all at

198
00:13:52,159 --> 00:13:56,879
once. And so now people are
have the golden handcuffs. They're tied to

199
00:13:56,919 --> 00:14:01,519
three percent mortgages, and no one
really wants to sell. I mean,

200
00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:03,559
I don't want to sell because I'd
have to sell on a seven percent market,

201
00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,559
which is going to get a lower
amount I'm going to have to buy

202
00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:09,399
in a seven percent market. And
so you know, but there are people

203
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:13,360
still getting divorced, they're still kids
that are growing up and needing to move

204
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:18,159
out. There's still you know the
demand for homes that are out there.

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But where do we go? Well, I think that we're going to see

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deflation in real estate prices relative to
interest rates. And the big problem that

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the mortgage industry has right now is
that the banks that have typically lended so

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much, they've been lending ten to
one, so for every one hundred thousand

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that's on the books, they can
lend out one million dollars. Well,

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today they have a difficult time competing
with the Treasury of the United States,

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which is the safest place to put
money, at least on the test that

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I have to take to be an
advisor. That's the answer. And when

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someone says, hey, I'm going
to take my one hundred grand from the

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bank and I'm going to put it
in the treasury, which seems to be

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a safer idea. Plus, if
I put it in you know, some

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sure term stuff here today, it's
paying five percent. You know what happens

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is the bank has to then go
and sell those assets which was in treasury.

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They get it on par from from
the treasury that then goes to the

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consumer. The consumer then puts it
right back at the treasury. The bank

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has less money to loan with,
and so all these loans that are out

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there thirty years, which I think
off of America refied between twenty twenty and

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twenty twenty one. That's a big
number, So a lot of people are

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locked in for thirty I guess that's
good for some of the consumers. But

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the challenge then becomes, hey,
these commercial products, these commercial banks,

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they are there. They tend to
have as much as seven years of loans.

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Well, we've got more than a
trillion dollars every year for the next

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at least six or seven that are
going to be coming due, specifically in

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corporate credit and corporate debt. That's
going to cause margin compression. And that's

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important to note because it's going to
be, you know, like twice as

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expensive to get a mortgage today because
you want from three four percent to now

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you're like seven, eight, ten, twelve, fifteen percent depending on how

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credit worthy you are, and you've
got to pay you ten percent to get

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a mortgage right now or a refly
on your building. That's going to really

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eat into any profits that you had
to begin with. So price of fuel

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00:16:18,519 --> 00:16:23,200
going up, all these challenges.
I do not see the commercial real estate

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side of things, or even residential
trending positively. I think that those things

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are going to be trending down and
there'll be great buyers, you know,

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times to buy for those who have
cash and have a little bit of patience

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00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:37,320
here. But the real estate markets
slower, and so just know that it's

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a lagging effect, not a league
being effect, of where the economy is

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going. All right, well,
thanks for that big good jolt of good

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00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:51,960
news. They are David, and
come here for that. So hey,

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00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,360
So I guess the moral of the
story is get ready now because it's going

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00:16:56,399 --> 00:17:00,799
to get you later. That's right, that's right. Yeah. A book's

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00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,680
coming out right now. It's called
Riding Bulls and Taming Bears, and in

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00:17:03,759 --> 00:17:08,599
it we're trying to describe some of
those ideas and give people the benefit of

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00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,079
understanding, Okay, if these things
change, where are some of the places

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00:17:12,079 --> 00:17:18,160
in ways that they should be allocating
capital day, Especially given my personal emphasis,

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00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:22,319
which is helping people to retire and
so we when we don't have time

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00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,599
to you know, to make up
from financial injuries, I think it's really

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00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:30,759
important that we understand our risk management
strategies and our protocols again rules to ride

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00:17:30,759 --> 00:17:37,160
bulls, Tame bears, and and
ultimately here survive just like you're trying to

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00:17:37,279 --> 00:17:40,279
teach people how to do so.
Okay, so how do you get that

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00:17:40,319 --> 00:17:45,920
book? Okay? So my website
is my SPG Sound Planning Group myspg dot

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00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:51,039
com and it'll be out about thirty
days. We're just in the last finalizings

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00:17:51,079 --> 00:17:53,960
of everything, which is exciting.
It's been a while now that I've been

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00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:57,400
putting this thing together. So encouraged
to be able to do that. So

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00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,359
if people want to to, you
know, pay even our website and say,

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00:18:00,599 --> 00:18:03,960
you know, hey, when this
comes out and for me love to

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00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:07,720
be able to do so, I'll
definitely come back on your show and talk

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00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,119
some more about it though. All
right, hey, we appreciate it.

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I've got a question for David.
You can always shoot me an email k

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00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:18,240
l at Kerry Lutz dot com.
And hey, go to the show notes

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00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,759
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot
com. You'll have a link right to

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00:18:22,839 --> 00:18:26,799
David's site, and while you're there, sign up for your free newsletter David.

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00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:30,079
Always a pleasure, Thanks for stopping
by, Hey, pleasures mind carry

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00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,880
great to be with you. Thanks
for listening to carry Lutz's Financial Survival Network.

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00:18:34,079 --> 00:18:40,559
Your solution to today's trying times For
the latest, go to Financial Survival

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00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:45,559
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network
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