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Welcome you are listening to watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host carry

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Lust. Well, John Rabino is
with us for our bi weekly chat.

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And well, John, if this
isn't a slowdown, I read today that

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layoffs are quadruple what they wear last
year. And of course nobody's talking about

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it, but you got tech layoffs
at every major tech company in the country

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except maybe Tesla hasn't announced any layoffs
yet. But how far can they be

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off? Yeah, it does seem
like everybody's laying people off. Um,

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well, you know, Blos quarter
GDP was up only one point one percent,

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or at a rate of one point
one percent, which means the economy

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is almost at stalling speed already,
so it's not a surprise they're layoffs.

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But pretty much everywhere you look there
are signs of the slowdown right now because

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pending home sales just went down for
the first time since November. Lumber lumber

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prices are plunging because of pending home
sales being down. You know, commercial

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real estate. I think we talked
about commercial real estate last time, right,

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but it's um, it's in a
crisis. You know, at least

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certain sectors of commercial real estate are. Oil gave back its m post OPEC

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surprise production cut jump. You know, it's almost back down to where it

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was before that, and that's probably
because of the slowing economy. And you

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know, the big one is that
the the M two money supply continue us

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to go down. And I posted
a thing called you can't you can't taper

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a Ponzi scheme the other day,
and the point is that, yeah,

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we're we're we've cut off the money
spicket. There isn't new money being created

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in order to roll over debt and
bailout people who need bailouts. And so

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that means somebody, some sectors of
the economy just won't get the money they

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need to survive and they're going to
start blowing out. The commercial real estate

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is an obvious one, but a
lot of lenders are either cutting off car

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dealers completely from credit or are making
it really hard for car buyers to get

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the loans on, especially to use
cars. So you've seen stuff like that

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all through the economy. And what
that means is lots of people are going

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to be able to borrow or are
not going to be able to roll over

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debt, and a lot of them
are going to go bankrupt. They're going

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to stiff their creditors will then go
bankruptcy, get one of these cascade failure

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things going when you try to shrink
the money supply and it's um it's not

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clear that they're doing anything to reverse
that. In fact, the FED and

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the ECB are scheduled to raise rates
on May fourth, so watch that day.

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That's gonna be a big day if
if inflation comes out I think on

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May second, at least for the
EU, and then the central banks raise

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interest rates in the face of whatever
the inflation number is. Then that's probably

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going to scare the equity markets,
or at least sober up the equity markets,

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because you know, stocks have going
back up. They're almost back up

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to where they were before the last
bear markets started, and that's not normally

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how it should be heading into a
recession. So I think very good chance

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of some financial sectors blowing up on
a level that's big enough to need a

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government bailout and an equities bear market
at the same time. So the second

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half of this year it could be
a lot scarier than the first half has

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been so far. Yeah, and
it's been pretty scary, that's for sure.

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Well, we can pretty much anticipate
that when this happens going to happen

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in the first quarter. It's going
to happen like September October. But one

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thing I noticed with the Nick Santiago
from In the Money Stocks is we started

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a peculiar phenomena, and that is
market crash is taking place during holidays.

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We had a couple of them over
the past six months. We never used

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to get a crash during a holiday
weekend, the three day weekend where the

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A team basically goes off to their
Hampton's jaunts and leaves it to the B

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team and the C team to keep
things going for a day. Now,

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I don't think they're going off to
the Hampton so quick when the holidays come

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because something has happened to the market
where these crashes have started to occur.

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Uh. Yeah, And what's our
next holiday to test that pieces is it

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the fourth of July Memorial Day and
that's also urban week in the Miami so

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it's a great time to not come
to Miami. O Week I could have

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heard about. Is that is that
sequel to Mayo or is that a hip

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hop festival that it was? Okay, you just leave it at that,

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Okay, yeah, alright, So
layoffs are are just through the roof oil

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price is getting and more importantly,
money supply going down, deficit going up,

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that sucks up all the available dollars. We get to have like a

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dollar shortage year where we really do
have deflation. John, Well, that's

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um, that is kind of what
we're saying. Because if if everybody needs

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to roll over debt or to um
to borrow to buy something, and they

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only need dollars for that, right, and that if we're shrinking the supply

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of dollars, then you know,
logically you could say that, well,

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interest rates have to go up,
the dollar exchange rate will probably go up

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relative to other currencies, and so
you get a tightening of one share conditions

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that way. So that might be
how shrinking money supply manifests in the economy

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via a tightening of monetary conditions in
a lot of different places, in a

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lot of different ways. And yeah, that wouldn't be a surprise. So

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it could be that this, this
coincides with a quote unquote strong dollar and

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that you know, however you slice
it from there, the effects are really

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bad. Yeah. Yeah, and
they're global in scope here. This isn't

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just one country having an issue,
John, this is the whole world.

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Well, almost everybody is tightening.
And you know, the ECB is the

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shocking one. I wasn't really paying
attention to found it, but they wrote

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they could. They raised their version
of the Fed funds rate from the negative

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point five percent to three percent in
less than a year, which is a

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really fast increase in interest rates.
And a lot of a periphery countries in

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Europe, the pigs countries, which
is what Portugal, Italy, Greece and

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Spain. Yeah, and that anyhow, their interest rates, especially on their

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ten year treasury bonds, have gone
way up. Italy's is up in the

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floors now. So this is a
country that's so over over leveraged that it

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had to have interest rates pushed by
the ECB down to below what the US

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Treasury pays to borrow for it to
survive financially. All of the sudden,

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it's paying four point three five percent
or something like that on ten year money.

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Who in the right mind would lend
Italy money for ten years even at

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four point three five percent, You
know you're liable to see a negative fifty

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percent return on those bonds. So
it's possible that this is a bigger problem

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for Europe, for the Eurozone in
particular, than it is from the US,

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because so many of the weak Eurozone
countries just won't be able to survive

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under these circumstances. And think about
it. Would you loan money to Germany

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at two point three percent and not
get his high a return, or would

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you learn it to Italy at four
point three Well, see, that's that's

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an interesting thing out because let's talk
about Germany. They used to be the

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country that got ever relied of everybody
in the world. Germany was probably the

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best managed country at one time.
Yes, but since then they've been making

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dumb mistake after dumb mistake. They
basedly went to uh Well, when they

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formed the Eurozone, they opened borders
internally, so you had free movement from

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one European country to another's the same
way that Americans go from one state to

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another. But apparently a German assistance, they opened their external borders too and

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just let millions of North African refugees
and other kinds of immigrants come in.

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And then once hit in, you
know, once they land on a beach

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in Greece or Italy, they had
unfettered internal momility within the Eurozone, so

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they could all go to Paris in
London. You know, that created a

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lot of political turmoil where you've got
these right wing parties that are anti immigration

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gaining popularity all over Europe. And
those guys are also euroskeptics, so they're

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not really wetted to the idea of
staying in the euro Zone at all.

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And then while your while Germany was
doing that, they decided to close down

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all their nuclear plants and go to
one M renewables and Russian natural gas.

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Very clear that turned out that renewables
like solar and wind don't work all that

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well in a cloudy, not very
windy country like Germany, so they didn't

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get nearly what they thought they were
going to get from from clean tech.

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And then you know, with the
German earther with the pipeline running natural gas

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to Germany from Russia. Um,
can I say the US blew up that

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pipeline, because we we all know
they did, But I don't think it's

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really official yet, and I don't
want to get you banned, so I'm

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not going to say that. But
yeah, yeah, but anyhow, Um,

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that pipeline got blown up. So
now Germany is not getting enough gas

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from Russia to satisfy its needs,
it's not getting enough electricity from solar and

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wind to satisfy its needs, and
it's it's in kind of an energy crisis

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for having to close down big sections
of its industrial economy. So where the

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rest of the Eurozone could function because
for instance, Italian and Greek bonds were

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seen as German bonds. Yes,
and with the German economy backing up the

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ECB, that's no longer necessarily the
case because Germany might not have the ability

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to bail out a trillion dollar economy
like Italy, and definitely not if you

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you know, if you include all
the pigs countries at once blowing up,

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it's not clear that Germany via the
ECB could bail out all of those guys

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without crashing the Euro. So they
might have a bigger problem from turning off

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the money's pigot than the US does. And you know, we've got a

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big problem. So that's saying something. But if Europe and the US both

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have basically the same kind of Ponzi
scheme death spiral that it looks like is

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a complete possibility right now, Van
who knows what happens in the global economy,

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This is a big deal. You
know, we have not seen anything

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micos in our lifetimes. Between the
US and EU, forty five percent of

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global economic activity. All right,
they're closing factories in China. There's a

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couple of YouTube channels where they went
around the ports to look at the empty

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containers and literally it's empty containers as
far as the eye can see. I

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mean, it could be a good
opportunity. You know, there were those

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companies that were converting containers into houses, into small houses. You stack them

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up, you put them next to
each other. So it could be a

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big opportunity in the reusable container housing
market in China. But outside of that,

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I don't see much much rights,
you know. And then you've got

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also the decoupling of the US and
China which is also taking place, and

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I would say the West is decoupling
to some extent from and then you've got

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the failure of the Chinese Belt and
Road initiative. Basically, they invested all

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this money, they loan people money. It's like it's like a chapter out

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of the Confessions of an economic hit
Man, the Belt and Road Initiative,

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Yet everyone into hawk loan the money, wait for them to default and then

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take over the Country's kind of like
what the US used to do. When

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you know Guatemala brought to seize the
or Costa Rica try to seize the banana

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plantations of US fruit, and you
know that's when you get gunboat diplomacy.

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I'm wondering if Beijing is going to
relate going to resort to gunboat diplomacy to

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collect all these loans. Another example, right here in the Bahamas, they

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built this huge, huge casino which
was totally unnecessary in NASA complex of hotels

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for billions of dollars. China financed
it it immediately. The Chinese ex import

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or International bank financed it in immediately
went bankrupt because Chinese aren't going to go

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gambling in the Caribbean. That's just
not their thing. And you know now

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I guess China owns owns the island
just about. Um. You know,

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all these trends taken place here.
It's you gotta wonder we're going to see

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that the first quarter collapse or maybe
even late summer collapse. You know,

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what you're talking about with China is
a variation of vendor financing. In other

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words, if you're selling something,
you can loan your customer the money to

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buy it, and that works out
great as long as they eventually can pay

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you back. Germany did that in
Europe. They ran trad serpluses with all

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the picks countries and now a lot
about depth is Germany is just going to

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have to eat it. China did
the same thing with the Belton Road initigive,

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where you know, there are big
sections of the developing world that it

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will never be able to pay China
back, and so China is going to

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have to come in and take over
these gigantic assets, which is going to

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raise I mean, that's like back
when the West owned all the energy assets

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of the Middle East, for instance, and eventually those countries rose up and

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nationalize those assets. So China might
be looking at something like that if they

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if they don't play nights. You
know, they're going to have to extend

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and pretend on a lot of this
debt to avoid countries just electing nationalists who

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nationalize the assets, and then China's
out in the cold with the only option

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to invade or something, and they
didn't want to do that. That's a

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US thing, you know, we
had no problem invading other countries and murdering

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bail leaders. Felt China doesn't seem
to want to do that. I don't

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pay. Yeah. Well, what's
interesting also is that there's an additional motivation

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behind the Belt and the Road initiative
is that it's a way to get money

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out of China. All right.
You don't want to make money on these

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projects because then you have to send
money back to China. You want to

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lose money. So then you get
what authorized transfers out of China to these

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countries, and when there's a loss, who knows how much they're really losing.

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So it's a great opportunity to get
flight capital out of China and invested

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in the Western real estate, whatever
you want to do. So the motivation

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has always, in my opinion,
this is a unique opinion to meet,

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has always been in these projects the
Belton Road to lose as much money as

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possible. You know, it's like
that to show the producers, remember so

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Zero Mustell and Phil Silver. They
figure out, you don't want to make

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money in a Broadway play, you
want to lose it. And then you

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get all this investment in from all
these rich widows and you lose the money.

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You say sorry, honey, and
that's what happened. But then the

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thing turns into a success and they
wind up having to pay all these investors,

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and of course that's when they find
out it was a big Ponzi scheme.

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So the key here is the goal
is all these projects outside of China

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is to fail, but not fail
so much that the government has to come

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in. Fail enough so you can
keep siphoning money out of China and into

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the West. That's my theory.
Okay, it sounds like an official version

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of capital flight, right. They're
just shipping as much capital outside the country

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as they can in anticipation of bad
things happening internally and stuff. You know,

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in today's world. That isn't even
the top five crazy ideas. Hey,

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the top crazy idea is RFK Junior
is going to challenge Biden now Look,

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if it's an honest primary, I
believe that RFK would probably win.

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Well, we're not going to be
any debates, and there probably won't be

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any TV he'll be he'll be barred, they'll send him. The only interview

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he'll be able to get is on
Tucker Carlson's website. Well, you know

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that that's true. Nobody will will
talk to him in the mainstream media.

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And but you know what, you
go on Tucker Carlson's website and Joe Rogan

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and you've been seen by ten times
as many people as would see you if

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you went on CNN or MSNBC.
So I think, for the first time

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ever, the alternative media is big
enough to do an end run around the

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mainstream media. So you know,
it's completely possible that And another reason why

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it's possible is that he appeals to
both right and left because his the holy

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anti vaccine thing he did plays very
well with him Fox's current audience and with

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libertarians. You know, there's an
awful lot of people out there who believe

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he's been he's been right and fout
he's been wrong, which means he gets

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a very broad based potential audience.
And you're right, if he ever debated

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Biden, he'd make forty points of
you know, up that day, you

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know, because Biden really shouldn't be
doing debates right now against anybody and doing

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them, you know, and Um
Kennedy is articulate with a really good memory

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for facts, figures and details,
so he would he would be throwing real

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um facts and figures at Biden,
who will be coming back with stories about

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corn pop and stuff like that,
you know, from from when he was

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seventeen years old. And I think
it would be ugly. It'll be very

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ugly at in the meantime, like
all of these uh ev personalities are getting

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fired. Don Laman on CNN the
canned him because he misogynist. I don't

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know, and I don't know exactly
what that means in his case, but

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evidently he didn't play well with his
colleagues. Ucker Carlson has shown the door.

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What do you think about Pucker Carlson? Tucker Carlson, I think I

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think it was inevitable because he was
so far off the reservation, because he

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was anti war when the entire mainstream
media is in favor of the Ukraine War.

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He's anti immigration, m a in
a way that makes sense when a

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huge chunk of the mainstream is is
pro immigration. What else? There were

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three, three or four other things
where the anti big Pharma. Oh,

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that's right. Basically like the week
before he got fired, he went on

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a rant about Big Pharma owning the
media seventy percent of their advert That could

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have won right there. If somebody
have him see event that, it would

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have been over. That's it,
I said, that is it. And

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then he'd have these outside the mainstream
guests on, like Jimmy Door and and

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like RFK Junior, and yeah,
that's that's right. He got fired right

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after the RFK interview. Yeah,
so I'm sure it was a confluence of

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the events, but he never invited
you or me on which was taking the

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stake. Might have gotten him fired
a couple of year earlier, John,

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if he invited us, Yeah,
yeah, well, well maybe his website

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will be more around well or open
to alternative voices. Even Jimmy the Jimmy

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dor thing. Everybody who's listening to
this who didn't hear the Jimmy dor thing,

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go check that out. It was
astounding to hear something like that on

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in mainstream media. Yeah, and
I don't know who's agree with Jimmy dor

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I think he's a useful idiot sometimes, but he does because mind, he's

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not holding to anyone, and he
makes some really good points. I used

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to watch him every day a few
years back. But you know, I

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believe what's going to happen now is
there has been no heir to Rush Limbaugh.

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Okay, now, rush Limba is
more of a doctrinaire Republican Conservative,

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but in his later years realized the
futility of that party and the corruption of

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it. But when he went basically
the right completely lost its way. Typer

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Carlson's more of a right slash libertarian
rethinker. But I see this as his

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opportunity, or perhaps at the natural
transfer for the evolution of the party from

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rush Limbaugh to Typer Carlson. Yeah, and Carrie, he'll be able to

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do it with with multimedia, you
know, he will have access to so

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much more in terms of delivery than
rush Lima ever did. So. Yeah,

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I mean you saw his He did
this little podcast thing the day afterally

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got five million views. Yeah it's
up to fifty seven million now. Oh

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really, so he normally got three
thousand views or three to sorry, three

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million views, and so he got
almost ten times as many viewers with a

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podcast then his show on Fox Scott. So yeah, it's gonna be ganuiney

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three. He has had liberated to
actually really come his own platform or affiliate

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with another platform, but basically running. I know you have to go in

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00:23:44,319 --> 00:23:48,640
any event, make sure you go
to John's site Robino substack dot com,

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00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:53,000
subscribed to his material and send us
emails k L at Kerryletz dot com,

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leave comments on the YouTube below,
and John, we'll talk to you in

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00:23:57,079 --> 00:24:00,079
a couple of weeks. Thanks,
sure, talk to you. Thanks for

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00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:07,359
listening to Carry Lenz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times.

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00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,160
For the latest, go to Financial
Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network

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