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Welcome to the Thinking Crypto podcast Crypto Watercooler

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Series, Episode eleven with me Today's
David the co host of the Next Block

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YouTube channel. David, how are
you doing today? I'm doing good man.

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I mean, the ballmarket vibes are
here as we're going to talk about

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quite a bit of stuff that's going
going on. The market seems like it's

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at a pretty key inflection point and
there's some excitement, there's some fear,

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you know, well, yeah,
let's get let's get into it. It's

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a lot to talk about. Yeah, man, obviously bitcoin has been ripping

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right right now. It's in a
cool down phase, but it broke the

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all time highs one to about seventy
four K. So I'm very curious what

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happens right before the having March is
usually a down month for equities, so

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Bitcoin's correlated, of course, and
I'm hoping by April come to having bitcoin

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pumps past eighty K. You think
that's possible. Honestly, I wouldn't be

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surprised if we pumped past eighty K
before the having I mean right now.

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You know, it's funny today,
especially today, I was looking at so

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many charts, from the Total two, the Total three, the US dollar

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you know to bitcoin chart, the
eighth to bitcoin chart. Literally everything seems

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that like it's at a you know, a month, and I'm looking at

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mostly on the monthly time frames.
Everything is at like either support or resistance,

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you know, based on what you're
looking at, And it really seems

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like the next you know, week, maybe two weeks where especially to close

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out March, we're really going to
see, you know, where we're headed

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for the month of April. You
know, part of me thinks, you

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know, how can Bitcoin, especially
with the attention it's got, the ETFs

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approved, all the money that's flowing
in. You know, there's the part

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of me that's like, how can
it not right just go to new all

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time highs with the having happened,
and you know, the supply being reduced

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obviously and hopefully miners, you know, more miners coming into the network.

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But I don't, I know,
I don't know what are your initial thoughts

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right now with where we're at and
where we could go leading into it?

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Yeah, I mean, you look
at the chart and it looks like bitcoin's

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bouncing upwards, right, but it
could get rejected. That doesn't mean the

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ballmarket it's over. We're talking a
very much short term right now in the

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media. I think we're going to
higher highs for sure. But my hope

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is that look with with the narrative
of the having coming up and Bitcoin maybe

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be consolidating, finding that bottom and
balancing upwards. I think there's a high

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probability of it going to eighty k
plus and then possibly some people are saying

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to ninety k and then you'll see
retail start to fommo like crazy. I

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think the magic number the psychological in
my opinion is like ninety k, because

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then they think not one hundred k
is coming next, so it's going to

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be incredible. And of course what
we've been seeing is that meme coins have

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been going crazy. The liquidity is
hitting the meme coins. I mean,

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I can't even keep up. Every
day it seems there's a new meme coin.

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Somebody's shilling it to me, some
new meme coin in Solana. What

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do you think about the meme coin
craze? Well, to finish your thought

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on bitcoin, I do think that
you know, we definitely, you know,

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one hundred k is honestly, I
think possible too right around the having

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and after the having, for sure. And I think a lot of the

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pundits and a lot of the big
wigs that you know throw out crazy numbers

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will be throwing out the you know, quarter million half a minute, you

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know, five, one hundred thousand
dollars bitcoin price to really suck people in.

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But I do think we will see, you know, it top out.

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Maybe one hundred, one hundred and
fifty K I think is maybe the

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top for this cycle whenever it does
come. But yeah, right now,

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if you're like me and like a
lot of people, you're probably holding a

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lot of alt coins, right you're
you're you know, you know, bitcoin

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can double or triple maybe your money
over a you know, six months,

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but you know, alt coins can
ten x, one hundred x and sometimes

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if you get the really lucky one
thousand x your money. And so we

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need bitcoin to you know, to
play along, right, So we need

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it to continue to go up and
with that, and especially the last few

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months with bitcoin pushing past those new
all time highs, you know, you

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know, getting above that sixty nine
K, we've seen all season run and

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now we've seen Meme season really start
to take off. I've definitely in some

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Meme coins. I definitely I enjoyed
the volatility. I enjoy the excitement of

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it. I will say I faded. I was in early on some of

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the best ones on Salona. I
was actually telling people about Popcat and with

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but I sold early because one,
I hated the kind of the UI,

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the user interface of some of the
decks is with Solona, and I just

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didn't like the failed transactions and just
staring at that spinning wheel like hoping it

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would go through. And so I
actually left and went to Base. Right,

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I was like Okay, let me
try to, you know, get

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ahead of the curve right on where
this meme coin season craze is going.

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And I was like, if coinbase
wants to build up base to be the

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chain right that they on board the
next billion users with, I was like,

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I want to be there. So
I've been over in the in the

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base meme coin season, and so
far it's rewarding me pretty well. Nice

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man. I haven't touched any of
it. But I am not a hater.

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You know, I'm not out saying
oh you suck or whatever. If

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you're making money, you know what
you're doing, that's the important part.

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More power to you, right because
look, at the end of the day,

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we're here to make money. Yes, we love the technology, Yes

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we can see the real world applications, but we can't help anybody unless we

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get financial freedom and we're able to
set ourselves up for the future. You

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know what I mean? Oh yeah, I mean you have to realize that

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if you're in Solona meme coins,
if you're in Base meme coins, whatever

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ecosystem you're in, and you're training
these things, you have to realize that

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right now it is a casino and
you know, at some point the casino

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has to close, right, the
house has to take the money, count

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everything and whatnot. And so you
just make sure you you know, you

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got your plan in place to get
out before before they shut the doors,

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because once the mean coin craze dies
off, and you know, that's when

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you know, that's when fear really
sets in and you can see some cascades

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and people lose money, like you
know in a few days, oh yeah,

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sometimes even just a few hours,
right, it films. But great

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analogy with the casino. That's how
I look at it as well. Meme

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coins walking into the casino, you
know, you're placing your bets. You

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may win, you may not,
and look maybe not as a risk risky

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or maybe the odds are not so
much against you as the casino, but

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the odds at a certain level are
against you eventually, you know, in

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the timeline of when these coins go
live and the hype of the market and

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then the cool down of the market. So and I'd be interested to hear

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your thoughts on like where do you
think right now, especially with like ethereum

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right and and it's you know,
I've been looking at the eighth to bitcoin

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chart and that one seems like it's
ready to move. I just saw today,

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I think that the fidelity filed for
you know, Ethereum ETF So,

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you know, what are your thoughts
there with you know, maybe if Bitcoin

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is going to stay choppy for a
bit, do you see Ethereum making a

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big move right now or does it
does everything is just is just just waiting

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for Bitcoin to make that next big
move to maybe like eighty k or more.

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Yeah, it's a great question.
I've been trying to figure that out

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a bit. What I've noticed though, is a lot of liquidity is going

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to Solana instead of Etheroreum versus what
we saw last cycle is that a lot

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of it was going to etherorem after
Bitcoin now right, but Solana seems to

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be the entry point for all coined
liquidity. It's been just going crazy now

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that could change. We're still in
what some would call phase two of the

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bull market. Twenty twenty three was
phase one. This year's phase two,

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and then maybe twenty twenty five we
see phase three. So I think Ethereum

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and other coins like Cardono and XRP, which haven't really had any type of

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run, I think they're going to
start moving. But when is the is

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the question. It's not a matter
of if, but when. So we'll

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see. Maybe Solana and meme coins
are the way the market makers are pulling

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in people like right, and then
eventually the big boys are gonna run.

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I think, think yeah, I
mean, I did see an interesting chart

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though, and this is still to
my, my, my, you know,

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positioning on Base is there was a
lot of liquidity that started flowing from

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Solana into some of the biggest The
biggest winner was Base and I and I

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don't know, I'm still bullish because
I'm bullish on what Brian Armstrong and coin

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base is trying to do. And
I think if you're bullish on crypto in

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America, you would be you know, you want to align even if you

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don't agree with everything. Maybe coinbase
does right and I don't, right,

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I don't, you know, I
don't hold most you know, big money

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on centralized exchanges because I don't want
my assets to get frozen there. But

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I know that that comes with its
own risks and rewards. But we have

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to be behind these people because they're
the ones, just like we're going to

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talk about today, going to battle
against the sec and corrupt regulators in our

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space that are trying to destroy crypto
and make it, you know, the

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innovation go elsewhere. So that's why
I'm bullish on Base. And I do

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think that you know, as this
as ethereum has to scale, which I

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think Base is doing a decent job. I think you're going to see a

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lot of liquidity, especially if they
can onboard you know, their slogan is

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to onboard the next billion users on
the crypto. They have a lot of

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cool things, and I think in
the pipeline to do that, and so

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I don't know, I think Salana, I think, you know, it

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is going to have to be these
faster, cheaper, uh you know chains

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that are going to bring you know, on board the next you know,

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billion users if you want to say
that, Yeah, great point. And

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I'm bullish on Coinbase for sure.
I actually owned the coin based stocks,

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sold some. I have some as
well. I think with all the things

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that they're doing, Base, they're
custoding all the bigcoin ets. Blackrock is

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a partner. I mean they partner
with black Rock Securitize to tokenize investment funds

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on ethereum. So I mean,
you can't deny that you're working with the

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biggest Wall Street institutions, and they're
doing great things. And you know,

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they got the clear runway I think
in the United States as the largest largest

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exchange being public, and they're fighting
the SEC and scumbag regulator Gary Genser.

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So get ri soon enough. I
know it's it's wild man, because just

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as news this morning broke that the
judge did push back on Coinbase's item for

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dismissal, but it doesn't mean anything
major. They're just going to go into

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discovery. And I support them all
the way in fighting the SEC because we're

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up against people who want to kill
crypto and stop it, because they're puppets

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on strings working for incumbents who are
getting disrupted. Yeah. I mean you're

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seeing tons of money flow into DeFi
tons of money flow into these chains,

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into you know, meme coins,
whatever you want to call it, right,

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but that's you have to think,
that's money that's out of the old

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regime's pocket. Right. They don't
want that. They want to control the

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system, and in a lot of
these decentralized applications that are being built,

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they lose that power because they can't
control it. And so yeah, they

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you know, that's the reason why
I you know, I support coinbase.

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I'm there to you know, try
to do as much as I can to

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help you know, on board the
next billion users into crypto. It's not

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easy, I will say, but
it's getting easier. I think we're still

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you know, maybe a few years
away from you know, really mainstream adoption.

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I think really the space has to
get it just has to make it

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easier, I don't, you know, and with wallets and just understand the

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jargon. Even to even now with
more people wanting to talk to me about

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crypto at the coffee shop or if
I'm at you know, at the store,

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if I'm over at the beach and
they you know, I tell them

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I do it a crypto podcast.
They're they're interested. And it's funny because

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even some people are not only interested, they're like, oh, I hold,

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you know, bitcoin and crypto.
But then I'll spend like five minutes

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talking to them, and everything I
say still goes over their head, and

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I'm like, man like, and
I'm keeping it pretty pretty plain, like

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I'm just talking about DeFi or n
f T S or something, and they're

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just like you can just see the
blank stairs. They're like, yeah,

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look, I'll be quite Frank,
I have told some people just go to

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ETF rout because they're like much older. I can't go tell them to move

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it on going coin base, get
a hardware wallet, move it over there,

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do self, cussy. I can't
tell them that, but I can

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say, hey, look, why
don't you talk to your investment advisor.

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You get access to the ten big
one ets that are out there. That's

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the easiest thing. So I'm honestly
and it's a yeah, that's that is

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such a unique way because so many, so much, so many people are

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would be so much more comfortable just
with the way you explained it, like

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talk to your financial advisor, have
them, you know, recommend which ETF

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could be good for you. And
that just sounds so much better than you

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know, trying to get someone to
go the Djen route of getting their own

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wallet, moving it off and then
having to handle the keys and all that

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mumbo jumbo. So yeah, that's
why I'm ultimately bullish that we will see

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bitcoin continue to rise, especially into
the having and throughout this year. I

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mean, there's so many other factors
you could even throw in with political stuff

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with the elections coming up, you
know, I'm sure both sides want the

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economy to be in a good spot
and not you know, in a recession

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or anything like that, so who
knows. Yeah, And the other thing

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I was gonna say, and it's
related to what we were talking about with

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coinbase. Coinbase if you saw was
going down with peak traffic at when the

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price was pumping, and I hope
they take the billions they're making and buy

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more servers, because that's one of
the reasons why I'm also not saying,

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hey, just go buy it on
coinbase. There were a trust the plaf

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and because then it goes down and
then they're gonna be messaging me, dude,

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what happened? I see a zero
balance, Like I don't want to

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deal with that, right, you
know, there was a ton of people

220
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who probably bought bitcoin that day later
went back to check on their wallet and

221
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saw I balanced a zero, and
we're like, great, I'm already a

222
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part of the first rug, right, yeah, I And even being on

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base, right, I mean,
Base is supposed to be scaling and making

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it cheaper, and they even did
an upgrade a few weeks ago to make

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fees sub a penny. But then
now that tons of people are like,

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oh I want to use base.
The fees at times have jumped to two

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dollars five dollars, and I'm like, you know this is you know,

228
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this's still an issue, Like you
know, the space has to you know,

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grow and get better if we're going
to really onboard people. And that's

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why I also think chains like Cardano, chains like Algorant XRP faster, cheaper

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chains, and you know, they've
not pumped like the rest of the market,

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but I still think their time is
coming because you know, real world

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businesses are they can't build on a
lockchain it's going to go down like Solana.

234
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They can't build on a shaky platform
that you know, their customers might

235
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pay a penny fee one day and
then a ten dollars feed the next.

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They have to have something that's consistent
that they know that they can plan for.

237
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And so I'm bullish on many of
those chains exactly, and I think

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time will be it will reveal all
things and change the landscape. I think

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right now is still so early.
And look there's also the vcs and people

240
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who have big interests in big stakes
in somebody's tokens. So I think once

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though the consumer and the businesses like
you're saying when it comes to the rubber

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meeting to road, that the consumer
always chooses the less hard you know path

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and with less friction and the cheaper
route and the faster route. That you

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can't deny that that is just simple
economics and business right, They'll go the

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easiest route. So I think you're
right on that front. Hadn't even follow

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up though, I was just going
to say, you know, maybe we

247
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could transition write that into you know, the black rock and wanting to tokenize

248
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everything. I mean, that is
a huge thing as well. I think

249
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that brings and obviously tokenizing a lot
of things on the ethereum. That's a

250
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bullish case for you know eth as
well as many other chains with who that

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are already have real world assets things
being built on them. What are your

252
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thoughts with that big movement. Yeah, I was surprised how soon we saw

253
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that. You know, we've been
hearing Larry Fink talk about it over the

254
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past year. I was not expecting
it this soon, and I think I

255
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don't know if it was a play
kind of a chess move because they want

256
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the ETHEREOMYTF so they're trying to show
hey, utility, Hey we're doing all

257
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these different things with it, because
there's a whole other layer to this,

258
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with the SEC trying to go after
etherorem now the reports that came out trying

259
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to classify it as a security so
I don't know if this was black rocks

260
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chess move. In addition to their
massive long term plans to start putting different

261
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assets on the blockchain. I think
this is the future. It's coming that

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these are just the pilots, the
test runs, and I think it's,

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uh, it's gonna be amazing.
They're gonna put everything on the blockchain.

264
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Yeah, and and you know,
i'd be interested to know your thoughts.

265
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What chains right now do you see
that which change do you think have the

266
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best uh foot forward? I guess
for enterprise grade real world tokenization of assets.

267
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I mean, are do you think
it's going to be just ethereum is

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going to take the largest market share
just because it is one of the largest

269
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blockchains for smart contracts, or do
you think that there's room for a lot

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of these smaller layer ones that are
faster and cheaper, you know, to

271
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to steal and to maybe even steal
the show. Yeah, I think it's

272
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possible because we're still so early that
somebody smaller folks can or blockchains can leavefrog

273
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etherorem if you know, the den
can upgrade, and all these upgrades don't

274
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fix the problems that are the underlying
problems. And I give an example.

275
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I had John Wu from Avalanche on
and they're working with City Bank and JP

276
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Morgan to do tokenization. So you
know, they're a preditory theorem. So

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that's really big. But you know, look, it's it's like it's like

278
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the dot com boom. You're not
just gonna have one smart contract platform to

279
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rule the entire market. There's there's
gonna be Look, there's Google, there's

280
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Being there's other search engines, there's
other things happening. Right. Yes,

281
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one may be the clear leader,
but there's certainly a room for other competitors.

282
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But who will be the leader is
a big question. Yeah. Yeah,

283
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And that's why I still have my
you know, I still have my

284
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bets on algorith That's one of the
ones I like a lot because I already

285
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see real word asset tokenization. I
don't know if many people saw, but

286
00:18:36.480 --> 00:18:41.079
Lofty AI invest to equity we're both
on I'm pretty sure, Like you know,

287
00:18:41.160 --> 00:18:48.039
mainstream TV being talked about their real
world asset tokenization of real estate.

288
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I mean with lofty AI, you
can literally invest and buy fifty dollars tokens

289
00:18:52.000 --> 00:18:56.160
of properties that are being you know
listed, and then every day you're earning

290
00:18:56.240 --> 00:19:00.279
daily rent from the from the tenets
that are paying their So that's a really

291
00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:03.119
cool one. Even with Vesta being
able to pull that equity out of your

292
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own home via tokenized sale of you
know, almost like a home equity type

293
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situation, but being able to put
that out to investors and things. So

294
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you know, there's tons of platforms
that, like you said, can leap

295
00:19:15.000 --> 00:19:18.920
for ag ethereum because they've already solved
a lot of the issues with you know,

296
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being cheap and being able to handle
a high TPS. Maybe they're not

297
00:19:23.240 --> 00:19:27.160
as decentralized in certain aspects, you
know, maybe they don't have the VC

298
00:19:27.400 --> 00:19:32.920
backing that some of these other bigger
chains do, but from a technical standpoint,

299
00:19:33.079 --> 00:19:37.680
they work, and they work well. Yeah. Absolutely, It's fascinating

300
00:19:37.759 --> 00:19:40.359
to watch these things play out,
and this is why I tell people to

301
00:19:40.440 --> 00:19:44.160
diversify, Like, obviously, don't
spread yourself too thin, but we just

302
00:19:44.200 --> 00:19:47.119
don't know what the winners are going
to be. Don't get me wrong.

303
00:19:47.240 --> 00:19:49.599
Bigcoin is that speculation layer, the
rising tide, the lips all boat.

304
00:19:49.640 --> 00:19:53.359
So many coins will perform well,
but for the long run, you know

305
00:19:53.440 --> 00:19:59.119
which ones are your big bets that
could get this real world adoption and utility.

306
00:19:59.200 --> 00:20:03.880
But it's it's tricky. Depends on
your investment strategy, if it's short

307
00:20:03.000 --> 00:20:07.079
term or long term and things like
that. Yeah, I'll step into the

308
00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:11.759
next bit of news. Yeah,
so couck coin getting slammed, But I

309
00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:15.240
was telling people, I'm not surprised
by this. They did it to finance.

310
00:20:15.599 --> 00:20:18.559
They're just going to go after anybody
who did who did not do KYC

311
00:20:18.680 --> 00:20:22.319
and mL whether for a certain period
of time, and just clean up the

312
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market. That's all that's happening here. So I don't even see that as

313
00:20:25.920 --> 00:20:29.079
a negative. I see that as
a positive. It's removing any risk that

314
00:20:29.599 --> 00:20:32.920
you know, may affect the prices. Yeah, I think it was last

315
00:20:33.039 --> 00:20:34.920
year was the you know, midway
last year, I think was the last

316
00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:41.079
time I used any really big exchange
that was outside of the US that I

317
00:20:41.200 --> 00:20:45.119
really just thought could get hammered.
And now I gave up. I pretty

318
00:20:45.319 --> 00:20:48.920
stopped using mechs, stopped using cuck
coin because so many of those like,

319
00:20:48.079 --> 00:20:51.880
yes, you can, you can
do some cool things, especially if you're

320
00:20:51.920 --> 00:20:55.920
trying to leverage, you know and
really play the you know, casino game

321
00:20:56.000 --> 00:20:57.319
of crypto. But at the end
of the day, you know, you

322
00:20:57.400 --> 00:21:02.240
could you could just see the crack
with you know, random tokens maybe being

323
00:21:02.319 --> 00:21:04.839
held and people not being able to
withdraw, and you know, you just

324
00:21:04.920 --> 00:21:07.599
get scared right when you see things
like that kind of fall into place.

325
00:21:07.680 --> 00:21:11.200
And so to see something like this
happened to Cuckoin, I wouldn't be surprised,

326
00:21:11.279 --> 00:21:15.640
especially knowing that, you know,
I just see Coinbase becoming one of

327
00:21:15.680 --> 00:21:22.240
the largest exchanges to rival like a
binance, especially after everything that happened to

328
00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:25.920
Finance and everything is looking bullish for
Coinbase to go in the future. I

329
00:21:26.000 --> 00:21:29.160
mean, you know that Wall Street
wants to wants to see Coinbase on top,

330
00:21:29.279 --> 00:21:32.960
Larry Fink wants to see coinbas on
top. So you know, I

331
00:21:33.599 --> 00:21:36.839
just feel like a lot of these
other exchanges, if they're not doing the

332
00:21:37.000 --> 00:21:41.480
right things, especially if they're allowing
US investors to be using it, you

333
00:21:41.559 --> 00:21:44.440
know, you got to you gotta
cross your t's and dot your eyes.

334
00:21:45.440 --> 00:21:48.960
Yeah, so I think this news
is just like, oh, Okay,

335
00:21:48.160 --> 00:21:52.640
they think cuckin, but it's still
in business. It's just aligned to the

336
00:21:52.759 --> 00:22:00.400
kyc mL regulations that are going out
worldwide. So every exchange in platform warn

337
00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:03.960
Yeah, I feel like right now
what you're seeing because if like I said

338
00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:06.759
earlier, I said, I've been
looking at so many different charts, right

339
00:22:06.799 --> 00:22:08.680
and if you look at the total
two and the total three and even just

340
00:22:08.759 --> 00:22:12.759
the total coint uh, you know, crypto market cap, we're right now

341
00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:18.039
at a level that is testing the
previous all time highs that were set before

342
00:22:18.480 --> 00:22:22.000
on some of them and others that
like if you look back to that to

343
00:22:22.119 --> 00:22:25.400
the last run, there was a
lot of choppiness right here. So yeah,

344
00:22:25.480 --> 00:22:27.680
we're probably gonna get some fud articles, some you know, just some

345
00:22:27.839 --> 00:22:30.720
articles to put out there, some
things that will happen to create some fear,

346
00:22:32.160 --> 00:22:34.039
to make people feel like, you
know, okay, this is the

347
00:22:34.119 --> 00:22:37.599
top. We're about to, you
know, have a really large correction.

348
00:22:37.759 --> 00:22:40.880
I want to get out, and
a lot of times not saying it's going

349
00:22:40.920 --> 00:22:42.839
to happen, but that is a
lot of times what happens right before that

350
00:22:44.039 --> 00:22:47.519
next big leg up, and if
we follow what the markets have done prior,

351
00:22:48.039 --> 00:22:51.519
we could be looking at the next
really big run for crypto and so

352
00:22:51.599 --> 00:22:55.039
I think that's why you're getting a
lot of this, uh you know SEC,

353
00:22:55.200 --> 00:22:57.920
you know the stuff with Coinbase,
cou coin, I mean just left

354
00:22:57.960 --> 00:23:00.079
and right. It seems like the
past few days are been you know,

355
00:23:00.240 --> 00:23:03.079
a different article saying, you know, some type of fud in the crypto

356
00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:07.799
markets. Yeah, like the SEC
wants two billion dollars from Ripple either trying

357
00:23:07.839 --> 00:23:12.839
to go after etherorem where there's now
confusion between the CFTC and SEC. Just

358
00:23:12.960 --> 00:23:18.359
a mess. And I think Gary
Ginster is going to get more losses in

359
00:23:18.480 --> 00:23:21.240
court. Uh, he's on the
wrong side of history here. I think

360
00:23:21.319 --> 00:23:25.480
Coinbase is going to kick their ass. And look the Ripple situation. They're

361
00:23:25.519 --> 00:23:27.400
trying to get two billion. They
are They're not going to get two billion

362
00:23:27.480 --> 00:23:32.119
now, They're going to get some
level of fine, which is it is

363
00:23:32.200 --> 00:23:33.680
what it is. And then I
don't think they're going to be able to

364
00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:38.559
show etherorems as security because there's no
clarity overall for the market and you have

365
00:23:38.680 --> 00:23:45.119
a competing agency saying no, it's
commodity and you guys agreed to this for

366
00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:49.440
years. We launched the futures ETFs
and so what's what's the problem. Yeah,

367
00:23:49.920 --> 00:23:52.279
And like I said, I think
it's just you know, it's planned,

368
00:23:52.640 --> 00:23:56.000
uh, you know, fud right
at a very pivotal you know juncture

369
00:23:56.039 --> 00:24:00.200
of the market where you also have
to think you have a lot of new

370
00:24:00.240 --> 00:24:03.880
people who probably just entered the market
because of the hype that bitcoin had running

371
00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:07.799
from you know, I would say
the thirty k range all the way up

372
00:24:07.799 --> 00:24:11.599
to the new all time highs and
breaking it briefly like that probably sucked in

373
00:24:11.680 --> 00:24:15.359
a lot of new you know,
new traders. And what happens usually when

374
00:24:15.400 --> 00:24:18.599
that happens is you get a you
get a local top, you come back

375
00:24:18.640 --> 00:24:21.400
down, you find support before that
next you know, big run up.

376
00:24:21.440 --> 00:24:22.720
And I think that's just that's just
where we are in the market. And

377
00:24:22.799 --> 00:24:26.559
so you just have to be ready
for you know, you know, you

378
00:24:26.640 --> 00:24:29.519
just have your you have to have
your strategy in place. Are you are

379
00:24:29.559 --> 00:24:32.880
you swing trading this stuff? Are
you just diamond handing and waiting for the

380
00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:37.319
you know, eventual blowoff top?
You know, what's your strategy for sure?

381
00:24:37.519 --> 00:24:40.400
Yeah, definitely got to got to
have a plan, write it down

382
00:24:40.920 --> 00:24:45.000
and stick to that plan unless some
black swan event happens. And it changes

383
00:24:45.039 --> 00:24:47.720
the whole thing. I will say, I did see someone made a post

384
00:24:48.000 --> 00:24:49.920
I think two days ago and right
now, and this is equities. Right,

385
00:24:49.960 --> 00:24:53.279
So the stock market is you know, it's it's gone so long without

386
00:24:53.279 --> 00:24:57.119
a greater than two percent correction.
And the only other times it's gone certain,

387
00:24:57.200 --> 00:25:00.680
you know, or at least at
this point was you know, dot

388
00:25:00.759 --> 00:25:04.400
com, bubble await, financial crisis
COVID nineteen and then back in like the

389
00:25:04.519 --> 00:25:11.640
sixties. So right now we are
definitely in bubble territory. It's just you

390
00:25:11.720 --> 00:25:14.559
know it's gonna be you know,
where are we are? We have we

391
00:25:14.640 --> 00:25:18.119
already topped? And is this complacency
before you know, a fallback down maybe

392
00:25:18.200 --> 00:25:22.720
before the having or are we just
going to get that real blowoff top,

393
00:25:22.960 --> 00:25:26.400
you know, sometime this year and
then see a crash. So I don't

394
00:25:26.400 --> 00:25:29.680
know, it's it's looking dicey for
sure. Yeah. So that's a great

395
00:25:29.720 --> 00:25:33.000
point. And I wrote about this
in my newsletter because it is an election

396
00:25:33.160 --> 00:25:36.640
year. You can imagine Biden.
I'm not saying I support Biden, but

397
00:25:36.680 --> 00:25:41.039
I'm just saying in general, every
president would want the economy to look good,

398
00:25:41.119 --> 00:25:42.920
the stock market to look good,
no major crashes, right, which

399
00:25:42.960 --> 00:25:45.000
would scare people and say, oh, are we going to vote this guy

400
00:25:45.119 --> 00:25:49.960
up? Nobody wants that or no
president wants that, So I think they're

401
00:25:51.400 --> 00:25:55.039
playing the game of the interest rate
game? Right would they pause? And

402
00:25:55.359 --> 00:25:57.119
well, I don't know if they're
gonna cut because historically when they do cut,

403
00:25:57.200 --> 00:26:00.960
something is usually breaking. It's bad
and there's a huge correction. This

404
00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:07.000
happened right before two thousand and eight
around the two thousand dot com. It's

405
00:26:07.240 --> 00:26:11.640
very much correlated. It's interesting,
it's really really interesting, and it could

406
00:26:11.759 --> 00:26:15.279
happen after the election, you know, that correction everybody's looking for because they're

407
00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:18.279
just gonna keep pumping the markets.
The FED may say we're not political,

408
00:26:18.680 --> 00:26:23.799
but they're going to be influenced by
the sitting president. So it's interesting to

409
00:26:23.839 --> 00:26:27.640
see what happens. And this is
why there's also the thesis out there the

410
00:26:27.759 --> 00:26:32.400
blow off top of the crypto market
could happen this year because the markets know

411
00:26:32.720 --> 00:26:36.279
ray cuts are coming and there's usually
a crash after that. Yeah, and

412
00:26:36.680 --> 00:26:38.279
that you know for a lot of
people, right, there's gonna be tons

413
00:26:38.279 --> 00:26:41.680
of people who get into the market
who don't know these things and you know,

414
00:26:42.079 --> 00:26:45.440
but are still gonna be right for
a time. And that's the thing

415
00:26:45.519 --> 00:26:48.599
that like I feel like it's hard
for is what I'm learning this cycle because

416
00:26:48.599 --> 00:26:53.640
this is my truthfull you know,
bull to bear to bull cycle and you

417
00:26:53.720 --> 00:26:56.640
know, going into the next bear
for me as a crypto investor and even

418
00:26:56.720 --> 00:27:00.240
just in stocks and whatnot, but
it's you know, there was a time

419
00:27:00.279 --> 00:27:03.960
when I joined in the last Bowl
where I was right for months on end

420
00:27:04.079 --> 00:27:08.000
and I thought I had solved the
game right, And so if that was

421
00:27:08.039 --> 00:27:11.960
where I was in the twenty twenty
twenty twenty one run up, like there's

422
00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:15.880
going to be a time this year
I believe where many people are going to

423
00:27:15.960 --> 00:27:19.359
come in they'll be right for months
on end and everyone will be high fiving,

424
00:27:19.440 --> 00:27:23.240
everyone will be a genius on investing
right before that rug is pulled.

425
00:27:23.440 --> 00:27:26.640
It just doesn't feel like it's at
that point of the market yet. To

426
00:27:26.759 --> 00:27:32.200
me. It still feels like we're
in that discovery phase on where we're actually

427
00:27:32.240 --> 00:27:33.359
going to go. I don't know, I could be wrong. I hope

428
00:27:33.400 --> 00:27:37.480
I'm not wrong, because I'm definitely
very long on many of my alts and

429
00:27:38.720 --> 00:27:41.440
you know, and like I said, the charts just seem to show that

430
00:27:41.519 --> 00:27:45.720
we're just at a brief pause,
kind of consolidation stage before that next leg

431
00:27:45.799 --> 00:27:49.920
up. Yeah, and then you
integrate the macro factors with the FED and

432
00:27:51.039 --> 00:27:56.480
the presidential election cycle. I don't
I think that there's a higher probability of

433
00:27:56.559 --> 00:28:00.359
something happening after the election versus before
both. We don't. We don't have

434
00:28:00.400 --> 00:28:03.839
a crystal ball. Anything could happen, maybe like the black Swan event,

435
00:28:03.960 --> 00:28:07.039
right, but I don't. I
don't think so. And one of the

436
00:28:07.119 --> 00:28:11.400
things I've been thinking about is the
crash that everybody's been waiting for. Maybe

437
00:28:11.519 --> 00:28:15.319
that was twenty twenty COVID, that
was the wipeout. I don't know.

438
00:28:15.079 --> 00:28:18.799
I mean, and that's where you
know, if you zoom out far enough

439
00:28:18.839 --> 00:28:21.720
right when and now zoom out,
if you really zoom all the way out

440
00:28:21.759 --> 00:28:23.720
and you look at you know,
the stock market from you know SMP and

441
00:28:23.759 --> 00:28:27.559
the NASDAK from creation, I mean, it can do this for a long

442
00:28:27.640 --> 00:28:30.079
time, like year, you know, it can go up for years and

443
00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:33.720
years and years before you see that. And I think, you know,

444
00:28:33.839 --> 00:28:37.240
the COVID crash, really, that
black Swan event has everybody at a heightened

445
00:28:37.279 --> 00:28:42.000
sense of fear, and I think
that's also a positive for the bulls because

446
00:28:42.480 --> 00:28:45.599
people were always wondering when's the crash
coming, when's the crash coming. So

447
00:28:45.680 --> 00:28:49.440
when, especially in these volatile assets, when you get these ten percent fifteen

448
00:28:49.480 --> 00:28:52.599
percent corrections, a lot of people
just jump out. They're terrified. They're

449
00:28:52.640 --> 00:28:56.279
like, oh my gosh, it's
coming, it's here. But you know,

450
00:28:56.400 --> 00:28:59.640
you really have to zoom out and
get a bigger picture on like how

451
00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:03.200
long these cycles can actually play out. And I still see plenty of room

452
00:29:03.279 --> 00:29:08.000
even if we get a decent sized
correction for equities and crypto maybe here in

453
00:29:08.079 --> 00:29:11.440
the you know, coming weeks months, it's to me, it's just a

454
00:29:11.519 --> 00:29:15.880
blip on where we're going. Because
even last run Bitcoin it had like I

455
00:29:15.920 --> 00:29:19.680
think five or six thirty percent or
you know, close to that corrections on

456
00:29:19.839 --> 00:29:23.160
its run, and you know,
alts obviously had a lot more, you

457
00:29:23.200 --> 00:29:27.359
know, bigger corrections than that stocks
same, So you have to be you

458
00:29:27.400 --> 00:29:30.400
know, you have to embrace the
volatility. And I actually just watched a

459
00:29:30.440 --> 00:29:34.720
clip today from one of the guys
I actually pay to get his uh critique

460
00:29:34.799 --> 00:29:40.400
on an analysis on the stock market
and the crypto market. But when we're

461
00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:44.880
at these inflection points, volatility is
heightened and that's what we're seeing right now.

462
00:29:45.079 --> 00:29:48.519
Like you just have to expect that
when you're sitting at support or sitting

463
00:29:48.559 --> 00:29:49.920
at resistance, there's going to be
a lot. I mean, we even

464
00:29:49.960 --> 00:29:53.680
saw that today with Bitcoin's price.
There was like massive amount of lungs and

465
00:29:53.720 --> 00:29:57.960
a massive amount of shorts. Bitcoin
literally wigged up and wicked down and wrecked

466
00:29:59.000 --> 00:30:02.400
both of them. So when there
when there is leverage in the market,

467
00:30:02.680 --> 00:30:06.119
that's what you get exactly. And
you know, you brought up a great

468
00:30:06.200 --> 00:30:10.599
point where the people who are waiting
for that crash maybe that's the time to

469
00:30:10.680 --> 00:30:14.799
buy or whatever it may be.
That's good for the bulls because when it

470
00:30:14.920 --> 00:30:18.319
doesn't happen to the degree that they're
expecting and the price keeps going, they

471
00:30:18.480 --> 00:30:21.640
fom away. And that's acually good
for people who along the bulls right,

472
00:30:22.000 --> 00:30:25.200
so they buy at the wrong time
and they feed the fire to the ball

473
00:30:25.240 --> 00:30:27.160
off top. Yeah. I feel
like in the in the bear market,

474
00:30:27.400 --> 00:30:30.160
you know, the dips, you
you think they're you know, you buy

475
00:30:30.240 --> 00:30:33.759
the dip because you think it's it's
dipped as low as it's gonna go,

476
00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:36.599
and then it dips lower. But
in the bull market, the dips,

477
00:30:36.640 --> 00:30:41.319
I feel like people want to get
that that nice thirty forty percent pullback,

478
00:30:41.440 --> 00:30:44.599
like, oh I sold here,
I'm gonna buy forty percent lower. It

479
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:48.319
only goes five or eight percent and
then it rips up and you just don't

480
00:30:48.400 --> 00:30:52.039
get you know, the window of
opportunity can be a lot smaller on the

481
00:30:52.119 --> 00:30:53.480
bull run. So you really just
have to, like I said, if

482
00:30:53.480 --> 00:30:57.480
you're a swing trader, you got
to have your your your plan in place

483
00:30:57.599 --> 00:31:03.319
or you're gonna get wrecked. Yeah. Man, I'm excited for this bull

484
00:31:03.400 --> 00:31:07.079
market, and I'm hoping like we
you know, started to show with that

485
00:31:07.279 --> 00:31:11.960
we enter April to this having what
a nice pump to maybe eighty to ninety

486
00:31:11.039 --> 00:31:15.880
I don't know for Bitcoin and alts
keep moving, but exciting times. Man,

487
00:31:17.000 --> 00:31:18.200
David, thank you so much for
joining me. Man, Yeah,

488
00:31:18.279 --> 00:31:22.359
excited, thanks for having me on
the show. And hopefully when we talk

489
00:31:22.480 --> 00:31:26.440
next, we'll be hopefully Bitcoin will
be cruising to that hunter K spot and

490
00:31:26.519 --> 00:31:29.480
because I know if it does,
we're gonna be sitting good, that's for

491
00:31:29.559 --> 00:31:30.640
sure, for sure,