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There's a bunch of things going on
as you talk about whistling past the graveyard.

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Is a student loan payment hiatus.
You know we had paused and people

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said you don't have to pay during
COVID. That's resuming, right. Why

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should anybody have to pay their student
loans when they can't even get a job

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as a janitor. You're listening to
carry Lets's Financial Survival Network, where you

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00:00:22,359 --> 00:00:27,760
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your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Welcome. You aren't listening to watching the Financial

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Survival Network, I'm your host Carry
Loves Well. As the consumer finally run

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out of red ink, or is
there always another jolt just off on the

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horizon. So far the death of
the consumer, or certainly his or her

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or your consumer spending has been greatly
exaggerated, as a wise writer once said,

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But are we finally at that moment, the Minsky moment where the can

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can't be kicked down the road any
further? Eddie Unit is with us.

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Now, Hey, you've got a
question for Eddie or myself kl at Kerry

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Lutz dot com is the email address, Eddie. Great to have you back

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on. So death of the consumer
greatly exaggerated as usual. Yeah, I

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think that's right. Where we're not
quite there yet doesn't mean that there isn't

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a near death experience on the horizon, but you know, so far,

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they're trucking along. So the latest
data from the government says that in July

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that consumers aren't continuing to spend,
but perhaps a bit unwisely like you and

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I might not advise you know,
friends or children to spend this way,

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but there they go. So personal
consumption expenditures is up point eight two percent

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in July, which is the highest
it's been in twenty three. However,

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disposable personal income is only up point
one five percent in July, which is

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the lowest it's been in twenty three. So they're spending more, but they

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have less discretionary to spend. And
you know, you can kind of see

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this happening. There's a bunch of
things going on as you talk about whistling

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past the graveyard. Is the student
loan payment hiatus, you know, we

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had paused and people said, you
don't have to pay during COVID, that's

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resuming, right, Why should anybody
have to pay their student loans when they

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can't even get a job as a
janitor? Well, you know all these

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depends of thousands, right, It's
interesting. I think that all of my

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solution to this is that, you
know, you got to hold everybody accountable,

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certainly you know, the consumer,
but also the university. Like I

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think that any debts or bankruptcies or
loan forgiveness should be tied back to the

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university that granted the degree. In
the flair, it's a thought because they're

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the beneficiary. Really, the student
got nothing out of this, right,

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the all of the whole kind of
you know, pal loans and you know,

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the all the loan availability. It
really bypassed the consumer and went straight

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to the university because they were able
to raise prices without any regard to outcomes.

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And so you know, basically the
consumer, anyone with a loan on

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average, is going to have five
hundred and three dollars per month less to

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spend going forward. So and then
you know, you got loan delinguencies carried

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approach on Q two of twenty twenty
rates per the Saint Louis FED And this

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is my favorite stat is you know, the number of twenty five to thirty

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four year old adults that are living
with their parents is four times higher than

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it was back in the sixties.
Bite your tongue, man, Well,

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thank goodness, that's not something I've
had to deal with there, But for

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the grace of God. Go on. Hey, you know one thing,

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when you're going back to the student
loans, not only is it in the

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interest have the college has benefited from
this, but they benefit more from their

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students failure than their success. The
more courses you have to take over,

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the longer it takes you to get
that degree. Used to be when I

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went to school four years you got
your degree. And now we got these

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perennial students and they're just cash registers
to the colleges. And then eventually the

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student is the bag holder. They
get left holding the bag here right totally?

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I mean, I think to your
point, until the student gets the

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job. I mean, number one, you sure your tuition should be capped

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at the average salary your graduate gets
immediately after your graduate. You know that's

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kind of one. Two is like
if you. You know, if you

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can't pay back your loan, then
that should come back in the form of

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taxation, because all these schools are
tax exempt, right, and so you

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know, basically like you you have, I mean, and it's a bit

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of a have and have nots.
Like my understanding is that Princeton, as

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an example, makes enough money off
of its endowment, so they're great money

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managers, right, so to the
point where they could charge nothing for tuition

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and the endowment would still grow.
They could. Yeah, all of these

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schools second five billion last I heard
in the Harvard Endowment or maybe that was

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Yale. It doesn't matter. You
could just substitute a name, right,

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you know. And these non profit
to you know, these non so called

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nonprofit to institutions seem to be doing
just fine in a nonprofit environment. You

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know. Well, these are all
hedge funds disguised as universities. I mean,

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that's really what it is. And
if you had a hedge fund with

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that my amount of assets under management, like would you not tax some?

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Of course you attack them. And
so yeah, all of this stuff is

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like you know it And not only
do I think it should be university specific,

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I think it should be major specific
you know, like if some I

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mean, surprise, surprise, I'm
guessing there's a flat fewer STEM graduates that

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are having trouble finding jobs and paying
off their loans then you know, English

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degrees or whatever else might be.
Like you know, so like I think

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accountability needs to happen. Unfortunately,
the consumer you know, always buy or

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be aware, so they're going to
pay the price. But a lot of

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these universities, it's not like the
professors are making more. It's that they

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have bloated middle management and they've hired
administrators and people who have nothing to do

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with the actual teaching of the students. And that's the problems. How about

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if we incentivize the professors, like
you know, they need. They keep

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a rolling average of what their students
pass or fail rate is and when they

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graduate, and if they part of
a team and they managed to get these

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things, get them to perform better, they get a bonus. And if

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they perform worse, hey get rid
of them or at least pay them less.

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Right now, absolutely, I mean, you know, to your point

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about a bonus, not only professors, but the college presidents and every middle

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manager out there. It should be
paid. You should get a bonus that

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is a percentage of the average income
that your students generate post college, right,

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I mean that that would be there's
a thought there, very logical way

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of doing it. Hand. We'd
have a lot of broke college professors work

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who worked for crummy or lower tier
schools. But let's do it for law

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schools too. I don't know if
you caught that James Grisham book about for

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profit law schools, but it is
the biggest scam and the planet. You

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know, it was a funny book
that they did, but yeah, it's

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it's it's uh, it is absolutely
there's a glut at the education that some

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professional institutions, like as you said, if you're not at a top whatever

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law school and that you can lend
the corporate job, like you should not

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be out there like you're you should
not be charging what the big law firms

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are law schools charged at least like
the idea that you know. I mean,

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this is like if this were regulated
as a business, it'd be price

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collusion. Right. How is it
possible that tuition is virtually the same everywhere

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you go and yet the outcomes are
radically different. Yeah, and it's funny

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the way it works, and yet
nobody seems to want to do anything.

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Do you think they got a big
lobbying outfit to all of these colleges because

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really, the student loan debt bubble, the only beneficiary of it has been

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the colleges because look, let's face
it, they didn't increase the number of

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students as the loan balances, as
the loan thresholds went up. All they

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did was charge more money and hire
more administrators. And there's no meaningful measure

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of the professor or a staff productivity
at all. You know, maybe internally

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they have something, but it's a
good question. I don't know what the

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I don't know what the lobbying dynamic
is with higher ad in Washington, but

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you're right that there's a reluctance to
change things, and you know, it

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is one of those things. I
mean, part of it is what I

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feel bad about, is it is
a bit of the big lie that has

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been sold to the population that you
know, education is a silver bullet,

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like it is if you come from
a family of never gone to college and

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you're the first generation to go to
college, and it is if you study

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the right thing, that's much more
of a pre professional degree versus whatever.

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But you know at absent that it's
really become a sol status club at the

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very high end education schools because you
know, you're you know, the admissions

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rate for a legacy student is so
much higher than it is for a regular

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student. It's just another way of
perpetuating aristocracy. But like, yeah,

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it's it's it's a trillion dollars of
debt plus that's misallocated capital that could have

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been much better used to buy a
franchise or start a business of some sort.

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And then because like if it's actually
higher education, maybe the undoing of

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America as a as an economic power, because that debt that hangs over you

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is going to prevent you from buying
a house, which is going to prevent

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you from having kids, which is
going to prevent you from having getting married.

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And then you know, population implosion, and we look like Japan and

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Western Europe which is already starting to
go that route, and so the downstream

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effects were just starting to see,
all right, well, you know it's

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a it's a bad situation. They're
not doing anything to make it better.

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And we've got the three legs of
the stool, actually four legs of the

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stool consumer credit, debt, credit
cards, student loans and auto loans and

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home loans right, and it seems
to me the legs of that stool are

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rott into the core well. And
it's interesting in that there's certainly rot in

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each of them. I think student
loans has the most amount of rot,

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for sure, just because the you
know, the the roi has always been

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dubious from an educational standpoint, at
least with the car loan in theory,

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the car gets you to and from
work so you can be productive and earned

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money. The home loan in theory
the value your homes post to go up.

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Now, there's all a full bunch
of changes that are going on in

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the housing market that may make things
challenging for some time. But now you

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know, of all the different types
of credit that's out there, I mean,

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the credit card one is absolutely you
know, I think the consumer is

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getting savvier, but and the percentage
of people who revolve are that's still going

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to be a problem. But you
know, frankly, the consumer, as

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you said, is doing no different
than the government is doing, which is

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that's tomorrow from you know, tomorrow
to pay for today, and at some

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point you do have to pay the
piper. I'm not sure when that's going

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to be, and I'm not sure
if it'll be paid equally. I do

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think that it'll be very localized and
very specific to categories and geographies. And

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I totally agree with you. Yeah, well, you know who's going to

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pay it. The taxpayer is going
to pay it right some way or another.

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These losses are always they always wind
up being socialized, whereas the profits

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from all these programs which are a
total mess, are privatized. Right.

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Isn't that the way it works?
Yeah, yeah, no, it's it's

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absolutely the case. And you know, the smart consumers, I mean,

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it's your Your point is well taken
about college in general. College enrollment is

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down actually from its peaked in twenty
ten eleven, and it's down a million

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students. And so not only is
the bubble is bursting, like there is

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meaningfully less enrollment, prices will come
down and that you know, call it

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a third to half of the universities
are going to go out of business,

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and so the market will reconcile.
It's just taking too long to do so.

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And in part, as you said, some of the core assumptions and

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the inaction and or lobbying is preventing
it from happening in a way that the

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market should normally make things happen,
and you're seeing this in other legs.

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To carry is that you know,
in general, my view is that categories

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that focused on experience in transformation,
meaning you know, like international travel is

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at a forty six year old high
two percent of you just considering to travel

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abroad for the conference board. And
then a category that I know well that

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I'm operating a business in Jeneo and
glow to facial medical aesthetics that's to grow

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ten percent a year to forty billion
dollars and twenty seven according to BCG SO.

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Categories that deliver the goods like you
get a great experience, or you

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actually become better or different, or
a transformation in some way, shape or

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form that's going up. Whereas stuff
that's just kind of physical goods like I

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bought it last yesterday and last week, therefore I buy it again, Like

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that's going to be super problematic.
Target revenue down five percent in July,

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Home depot revenue down two percent in
July. And you'll like this one,

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Kerry, is that you know,
physical goods, the pricing has come down,

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So you know you're going to see
deflation there because there's just not too

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much stuff and too little people want
it. But to the point, theft

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at retail is going to be a
massive even one two worse one two punch.

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It was estimated to be one hundred
billion dollars and twenty two and Targets

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said that merchandise theft will rob shareholders
of a half billion dollars in earnings this

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year. And so, well,
you know, shoplifting has been normalized,

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so why should we worry about it? Right? Wow, we're gonna worry

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because I mean, we'll see how
long the pain kicks in. But some

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parts of the country will just not
have retail available to them. Why would

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they Why would a retailer operate a
business there put their people at risk and

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their merchandise at risk. And I
think it was Chicago. It's got the

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Kachamimi idea because of all the shoplifting, the theft, and the danger to

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everybody there. Uh, they're going
to open up their own supermarkets to make

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up for the food desert. Now, didn't I didn't see that one definition

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of complete and total utter insanity.
Where am I crazy? Well, you

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know, it's it would I haven't
allowed it, but if they were smart,

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they would do it in the new
economy, not the old economy.

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Right, So delivery would work make
a lot of sense, right because like

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the three the four horsemen of the
apocalypse that's going to hit retail. Physical

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goods are One, we've hit peak
physical goods. People don't want that stuff

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anymore. They want experiences in transformation. Look at China, Look at China,

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China absolutely. Two is that you
have the theft shoplifting thing, which

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is like it's just going to make
it less pleasant the shop at these places,

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people won't go there. Three,
you have e commerce that's continuing the

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truck along like Amazon is going to
continue to do its thing. And in

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the four you're going to have delivery
services continue to rise. And that all

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of these things make it so that
you don't need the retail experience to be

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a great one. They should become
distribution warehouses where people can just get stuff

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shipped to them and showroom looks exactly
that you go look at you know,

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you go look in the big box
store or whatever the retail store for the

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product you actually want, and then
you go order it online. Right,

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I like it. Hey, I
do it all the time myself. You

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know. Yeah, time is precious. Why would you you know, so

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they might as well accept their new
newly found role and capitalize on it.

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Maybe they'll charge you to walk in
the store now you know, well you

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know, I mean there are retailers
in Japan that do that. And guess

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what, when you charge people for
the experience, the experience gets better.

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00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:41,640
You know, That's how club stores
work, right you. The reason why

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the Costco hot dog is a buck
fifty is you pack the pay to enter

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the store. So you know,
like you maybe think of that, like

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maybe I will go to Costco and
get a hot dog for lunch today.

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You just made me hungry. But
even if they said, look it's ten

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00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,880
bucks to come in, but you'll
get a credit on your first sale,

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right, oh yeah, it wouldest
that be a better thing for them.

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Absolutely, I mean it. I
mean the best thing that retailers could do

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00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:17,240
would be to follow costical model.
And he said, you know, charge

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00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:21,680
them up front so that you know
that it's not going to be you know,

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00:18:21,799 --> 00:18:23,440
a shoplifter or whatever, someone who
actually wants to be there, and

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00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,279
as you said, give them a
Scooby snack, whether it's you know,

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00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:32,039
a block fifty hot dog five dollars
or two's ritchickin or whatever, or a

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discount on future purchases, Like everybody
wins in that scenario. So yeah,

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I think it. I think it
could work. I think it could work.

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I mean there'd be outrage at first. There always is outrage. You

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remember when they started charging for credit
cards what's upon a time and there was

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00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:55,559
complete and utter outrage. And now
what do you think, like now everybody

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00:18:55,640 --> 00:19:00,559
just accepts it, right, Well, I think the consumer will avenge figure

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00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,880
out and I think it's probably figure
it out sooner rather than later. That

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00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,680
there is no free lunch. That
when you pay for something you're going to

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get better experience, treatment, service, or whatever else. It is.

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So as you said, credit cards
went this way, your retail is going

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to go this way, and look
at social media is going to go this

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way too. You know, when
you get charged to be part of the

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00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,000
platform, then at least you know
you aren't the product that's being monetized and

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sold, which is like what Facebook
is. So and you know the other

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00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:37,480
thing is that when you get something
for free, it has no value to

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00:19:37,559 --> 00:19:45,359
you, whereas when you have to
actually pay for things. You know that

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00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,640
it's a different things, different thing
altogether. Yea, all right, hopefully

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00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:55,720
we can free up money from paying
for things like colleges and unnecessary education.

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00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,799
That free up more money to pay
for things that people actually want will actually

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help them out. So yeah,
well that's the other thing. Like you

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00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,039
and I, you know, can
talk about this. We already went to

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college, we already had our day. College was a lot more affordable and

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00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:18,079
cheaper. Now that it's unaffordable,
the person is saying, like, og,

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00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:22,799
you know you're you already got the
benefit. Now you're screwing us out

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00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:26,359
of it effectively. Yes, you
know, there's something to be said for

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00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,759
that, you know, I mean, I understand where they're coming from.

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00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,200
But things are definitely different now,
aren't they. Oh I, it's it's

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00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:41,079
incredible, just just the sheer mercenary
nature of higher education. Like you know

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00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:45,440
it. These these educational institutions started
out with the missionary purpose and now they're

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not. They're all here to suck
as much money out of people as possible

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without delivering any outcomes. And it
should be criminal to do. But it

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00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:57,599
should be criminal, like basic some
schools and some majors should have the same

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00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:02,440
warning labels as cigarettes. You could
lose all your money with this, right,

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00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,599
I mean those trading options, those
stock market it's like you might lose

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00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:11,880
all your money and get nothing out
of this. Hey, it's it's they

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00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:18,079
become basically parasitic entity. Seventh they
yes, all right, any organization that

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00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:23,759
loses its missionary purpose said perfectly becomes
a parasite. It's rentier. They're rentier

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00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:33,119
seeking enterprises that that couldn't care less
about who's paying for it. Right,

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Yeah, so all right, well, Eddie, tell us again where we

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00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:41,079
find you at these days. Yeah, you can find me on Twitter at

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00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:47,960
eddiewood Grow, as well as my
substack category pirates dot com. Uh,

280
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,079
if you're a carry a Lens listener, then please send me a note.

281
00:21:51,319 --> 00:21:53,400
I am glad I give you a
complimentary subscription to it, all right,

282
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:59,559
Eddie wood Grow dot com. If
I remember the and there it is on

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00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:03,200
my web site. Hey, if
you got a question for Eddie or myself,

284
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:07,039
shoot me an email, k l
at carry Lutz dot com, Twitter

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00:22:07,079 --> 00:22:12,279
feeds at carry Lutz and while you're
at the site, you'll find a direct

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00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:18,839
link to Eddie's site on Financial Survival
Network dot com. Just click it take

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00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,359
you right there, and while you're
on the site, sign up for your

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00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,920
free newsletter Eddie. Always a pleasure. Thanks so much for stopping by,

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00:22:26,079 --> 00:22:30,000
same here, Kerry, Thanks man, thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial

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00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:34,279
Survival Network, your solution to today's
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291
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