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There's going to be a change.
I don't know what that is. I

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don't know. I mean, we've
all heard the rumors right that they're going

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to have that cut benefits by twenty
to thirty five percent. They're going to

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continue to increase that full retirement age
up into the seventies. You know,

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I don't know what's going to happen, but you know, at the current

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rate, you know, it's just
it's it's broken, and you know,

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I don't know how long it's going
to last. You are listening to Carrie

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00:00:25,519 --> 00:00:30,719
Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you
get valuable information. You just can't find

9
00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:36,840
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10
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00:00:42,439 --> 00:00:52,840
newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network
now more than ever. And welcome you

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00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:57,039
are listening too. I'm watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Terry Lutz. Well, we got
some major issues to discuss the year.

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Obviously, the economy is slow and
everyone can see that lay off up,

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but has offended stood up and take
notice. Well, arguably you could say

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that their call for lower interest rates
although we haven't seen them yet, is

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the first salvo in their mission of
pupping up the economy and keeping the stock

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market going, especially in an election
year at sidel is with us now,

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So GDP one percent, all right, So it doesn't qualify or classify as

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a recession yet, but if we
had an honest inflation measure, maybe it

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would. Yeah. And you know, I was just talking to to a

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client and you know, we're talking
about the old saying when it comes to

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uh statistics, right, numbers,
it's they're they're you know, there's there's

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lives, there's damn lives and their
statistics right, And depending on what numbers

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you're going to use it really you
know, you can you can hedge you

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one way or the other. But
you know, honestly, the way that

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I'm looking at this is the FEDS
are saying, oh, hey, PC,

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that core it's at two percent.
That's kind of our tarian number.

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You know, I think that they
may be looking at that along with you

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know that you know one percent GDP. Where now all of a sudden,

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yeah, they they have the ability, that's the past that they need to

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start lowering rates because we see it. I mean, you and I and

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and everyone that we know, I
mean, we're we're we're seeing, we're

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feeling the slow down already. But
uh, I don't know. I think,

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well, I do not think we'll
be shocked next week during the Fed's

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meeting. All right, So they
said they're going to cut rates, but

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they haven't done it. Yeah,
there's three of them for the coming year.

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Experts are saying six. And the
mean rates have come down on their

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own, which is indicative of a
possible recession. Mortgage rates, you know,

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long term rates, the two year
has come down, which give some

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breathing room because the Fed funds rates
still at five and a quarter, so

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they don't really have to do anything
perhaps until later in the year. Those

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lower rates are no doubt going to
be helping the imperiled banking sector too as

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well. Right, yeah, and
you're absolutely right. You know, I

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think the Feds have been looking at
it, especially Jerome Powell. They're going

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to let the capital markets, you
know, do his job, you know,

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and that's actually what the market should
be doing, is you know,

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doing what needs to be done,
which is lower rates. And if you

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look at what happened in October,
you know that thirty year mortgage. It

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was you know, eight point six
percent at the high, and now depending

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on the lender, you know,
it's hovering around six And I just saw

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the one this morning a little bit
below six. So they're coming down on

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their own. I don't think personally
that the Feds are even going to think

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about lowering rates until the mid to
the end of the second quarter, which

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is May. I also disagree with
the experts that they're going to lower it

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as much as six times. I
don't know how they can do that without

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kicking inflation back in because there's a
lot of inflationary things going on right now.

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All these government jobs are inflationary.
We're overspending, which is inflationary,

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and so if they lower them too
much, it's going to put us right

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back to where we were. Yeah, so there's a kind of a new

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way out for them. The only
thing they get to do now, which

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they're probably better off doing nothing than
something. But what happens when the market

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wakes up one day and says,
you'll lie, we wanted to lower a

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rates, said you didn't give them
to us, and then we have an

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inverted yield curve and all of that
good stunts. Yeah, you know that

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could definitely happen. I think as
long as the Beefeds adhere to what they

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were talking about before Lauren rates two
or three times because they changed it from

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four to to three times in August
the last year. I you know,

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I think the markets are going to
be fine. It's just not going to

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be you know, a trajectory straight
up like it was last year. But

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it's an election year. Historically it's
always a positive year. You know,

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the average is close to eight and
a half percent, no matter who's in

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the White House and whatever the running
is. But I think we have an

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narrow window between now and the election
to you know, make a little bit

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of hay while the sun shines.
You know, as long as everything is

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status quo, which means there's there's
no additional geopolitical issue. We we we

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don't have an event like Gaza,
you know, or anything major happening or

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you know everyone who use of the
term black swan. Yeah, all right,

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So what about asking this question here? So inflation kicks up, prescious

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metals start moving up, but then
we have this thing called the January facts,

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right, and it's almost never brow. It's one of the most solid

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indicators so it goes January, so
goes year. Yep. So then we'll

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have a dip probably after January or
the first second week of February. It'll

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did it through till the perhaps the
summer, and then the federal start making

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some noises because as the late Great
allen ablesonset, the Fed is doing what

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it does best, which is an
elected president right absolutely every time every time,

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you know, you know, and
if you go back and you look

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at the stats during a presidential election
year, you know, the turnover from

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you know, a Democratic administration to
a Republican or Democrat staying you know,

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Democrat to Democrat, Republican and Republican. There's really not a whole lot of

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variants in that through the end of
the year. It's the following year where

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there's a little bit of change.
But you know, I look every time,

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you know, I come on your
podcast, I say the same thing.

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You know, it's there's there's a
debt issue, there's a debt bubble.

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But I'm positive this year, especially
AI tech, I don't think that

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run is done. And you know, industrials and materials because that's been beat

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up so hard. Even though the
economy is slowing down, you know.

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I I think that that's you know, a really good specter going forward,

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especially you know, as there there's
hedges against the inflation. I think,

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you know, the industrials, materials
that they're going to benefit from it.

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Okay, so so and then the
of course, uh we would remiss,

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we didn't talk about so inflation is
already cooked into the system. Everything you

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buy has gotten more expensive, especially
things you need like food and energy.

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While that's down a little bit,
but we'll see how long that led us

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for. Hey, inflation, is
it behind us? Is the worst behind?

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Or are we going to have another
resurgence because it's a twenty year cycle?

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Yeah? Yeah, I mean we're
it's uh, we're just just barely

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ahead of the curve right now,
and it is it's going to come surging

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back. I mean you can't,
even though the FEDS have that core target

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of two percent I mean, which
is literally arbitrary. I mean it really

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is. But when you add as
many government jobs as we did and we

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continue to overspend, I mean,
a republican democratic doesn't matter all overspending,

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right, and then we add in
all the unfunded liabilities that we have,

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from social security to medicare, defense
spending, and just you know, covering

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the interest on the national debt.
You know, that's all inflationary. And

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we combine the national debt thirty four
plus trillion and the unfunded liabilities which are

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estimated to be somewhere between one hundred
and eighty and one hundred and ninety trillion

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on top of it, there's Yeah, that's inflationary. I mean, there's

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at some point in time, whether
it's this year or next year, I

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mean, it's it's going to come
home to roost. And that's what makes

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me nervous. This is why I
say all the time I'm cautiously optimistic.

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And you know, we've got a
very narrow window between now and in the

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end of the year through the election. Yeah, do you think they're going

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to take my social security away from
me? Here? At you know what,

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I don't know if it's going to
be there. When when you look

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at the aging population, the amount
of the workforce that is not actually engaged

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in working, you know, there
there's not enough people funding the boomers that

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are retiring, So there's there's going
to be a change. I don't know

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what that is. I don't know. I mean We've all heard the rumors

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right that they're going to have that
cut benefits by twenty to thirty five percent.

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They're going to continue to increase that
full retirement age up into the seventies.

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You know, I don't know what's
going to happen, but you know,

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at the current rate, you know, it's just it's it's broken,

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and you know, I don't know
how long it's going to last, all

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right, so I should enjoy it. Well, I got it. Huh,

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Yeah, that's right. Here's a
question for you. Like or narrow?

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You're better off taking it till you
waiting until it hits need the tape,

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right, because then you get your
maximum benefit. But dearly is this

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something that we want to perhaps speed
up? Yeah? You know, when

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when we're building plans for people,
you know, we're looking at it two

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ways. You know, the math, you know wins what what does it

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tell us the best time to take
it? You know, is it you

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know, sixty seven, sixty eight, seventy, I mean, is it

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is at early at age sixty two? Right? Everyone's situation is a little

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bit different now. Having said that, I am my personal belief, I

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don't think that if they hate cuts
that they're going to cut the benefits.

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I hate saying the word benefit because
it's our money, but cut the most

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benefits of the recipients that are computing. What's that I said, they'll cut

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the outlays, right, Well,
that's exactly it. So like to your

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point at right that just you back, that's all it is. And so

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it may make sense to actually take
that money a little bit early so that

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00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:50,200
that way, yes, you may
have a reduction, but at least you're

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going to get it and you're locked
in and it could wind up being more

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than than what the outcome is.
Yeah, mine is I've got like survivor

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benefits, so that pays me about
half of my eventual payment will be after

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seventy. So do I get ready
now to take it all now? But

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should give me probably I don't know, fifteen hundred a month more or or

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maybe a thousand a month more it
took it all now, or do I

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wait till the three years from now
and I'm seventy and then get it.

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You know, it's a question I've
been having difficult since with well, you

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know what, and that's a great
question in the fact that you're being thinking

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about it is really important because most
people don't think about it that way,

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and it really you know, is
it going to be there? Yeah,

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we've heard estimates from twenty thirty nine
to twenty thirty five to you know,

165
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:52,120
twenty twenty six. Who really knows, because it's really there's nothing there.

166
00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:56,919
It's you know, it's a flow
through, you know, the Social Security

167
00:12:56,919 --> 00:13:01,159
that's taken out of our taxes every
pay period. That's what's going to fund

168
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,600
the retirees. So if we don't
have enough people working to fund that,

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00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,440
you know that there lies the problem. And and where is that that break

170
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even point or the breaking point if
you will, for that to happen.

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So breaking point I'm more concerned about
than the break even point. Yeah,

172
00:13:18,279 --> 00:13:24,679
well yeah, absolutely so, you
know, because it's a question also if

173
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they'd all do anything about it,
then inflation is going to need it away

174
00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,799
anyway. Right, Well, yeah, you're exactly right. You know this

175
00:13:33,879 --> 00:13:39,320
fallacy we I've been hearing it all
day on the news, the experts saying,

176
00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:41,519
well, you know, inflation,
you know, inflation is going down.

177
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,080
Inflation is going down. It's not
going down, it's the rate of

178
00:13:45,159 --> 00:13:50,039
growth of inflation that's decreasing. I
mean prices are still going up, and

179
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so you know, it's that like
you said, you know, even though

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they're adding that that cost of living
adjustment and everything else. I mean,

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you know, inflation. It's it's
it's that silent tax, the island killer,

182
00:14:00,639 --> 00:14:03,600
if you will, against your wealth. It just keeps eroding it a

183
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:09,200
little by little, not by month. Yeah, and sometimes not so little,

184
00:14:09,279 --> 00:14:11,399
right, yeah, sometimes not so
little, because it does. I

185
00:14:11,399 --> 00:14:16,000
mean, you know, you've got
different inflationary factors, just the standard of

186
00:14:16,039 --> 00:14:20,840
living, like you said, you
know, those luxuries like food, shelter,

187
00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:26,919
clothing, Okay, and then you
add into it healthcare or you know,

188
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,320
if your kids are in college.
You know, the the inflation rates,

189
00:14:30,399 --> 00:14:37,279
the growth rate and cost on healthcare
and prescriptions and and education is astronomical.

190
00:14:37,399 --> 00:14:41,279
You know, the the economic inflation
rate pales comparison to you know,

191
00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,679
those industries. So it does it
it is, it's a wealth killer.

192
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,759
You know, that's amazing looking at
my social security state that I'm in,

193
00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:56,600
leading in me and my employer and
basically that was my employer. I put

194
00:14:56,639 --> 00:15:01,600
it in write sixty thousand dollars and
you know, it's going to take a

195
00:15:01,639 --> 00:15:07,000
long time for me just to break
these on the deal and my parents on

196
00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:11,759
the other hand, you know,
people ten to fifteen years older than me.

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00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:16,200
Man, they really cleaned up on
this thing. I'll be happy just

198
00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,600
to break eat it. You know, you're exactly right. I mean when

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00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:22,720
it was originally designed, you know, life expectancy was I mean, so

200
00:15:22,799 --> 00:15:28,240
sixty five was the original you know, full retirement age and life expectancy was

201
00:15:30,559 --> 00:15:33,000
below seventy you know, sixty seven, sixty eight, sixty nine. And

202
00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:37,799
now people are living well into their
mid to late nineties. And I and

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00:15:37,879 --> 00:15:41,559
I think I would not surprise me, wouldn't shock me at all if you

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start seeing them, you know,
continue to increase the eligibility age and the

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full retirement age, you know,
to get close to that that same point

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again because now I think life expectancy
carry for you and me. They just

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saw it again and it's below eighty
again. I think it's like seventy nine

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or something like that for exactly that's
see, so we have to be you

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know this, I'm just gonna just
clarify what you're saying. Yep, if

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you make it to sixty, then
you're probably gonna make it to eighty three.

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If you make it to sixty five, then you're probably going to make

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it to your mid to high eighties. And if you make it to sixty

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seven, you'll probably make it to
like eighty eight or eighty nine. Those

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numbers aren't et sact but that comes
from the actuarial tables. But the action

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of your life back don't see American
mail is under it's like seventy seven,

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I think, right, Oh,
is it that low? Okay, I

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just knew the average overall was below
eighty. I didn't realize it was seventy.

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So I didn't realize it was that
low. And we're in that right

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with you know, healthcare, the
modern medicine and everything else. You know,

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our clients are aging population, they
are living longer and longer, and

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so you know, we're having to
plan out these plans until they're mid and

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upper nineties. Just based on the
stats that you just talked about. So

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I just looked it up. American
life expectancy that without regard to sex tender

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is seventy nine point eleven years,
which actually increased from twenty twenty one when

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it was just under seventy nine.
But you know, at one point it

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was definitely higher. But you know
point is you have to be very concerned

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that the median life expectancy is eighty
one point four and the women female was

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four point eight, which was down
from well twenty twenty three went up a

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little bit. You have to look
at you can google live better than me.

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And the point is there's different numbers, yes, but point is you

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could last a long time. And
if you're holding out hoping your social security

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is going to get you through it, just figure if it makes your house

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and car payment and buys your groceries
and your utilities, you'll be doing really

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well. Yeah, you know,
and I mean just food, shelter,

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clothing, basic necessities. And you
know, at the continued growth rate of

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inflation, you know that's that's going
to be tough, especially when you add

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in you know, increasing taxes.
I mean we're seeing that here in Ohio.

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You know all the the additional you
know, assessments on property values and

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you know, school district taxes and
everything else. And in even if your

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home is free and clear, it's
becoming very difficult to afford to live in

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the house that you raise your families
in. You know, for a lot

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of retirees that are all fixed income, which is why I'm creating a new

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00:18:52,599 --> 00:18:56,880
newsletter and if you're subscribe to my
existing one, you'll automatically get it.

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00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:06,039
It's called the in slate. That's
called Inflation Cafe where dollars go to die.

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00:19:07,039 --> 00:19:17,599
Oh I like that, Pat,
Yeah, yeah, so pint is

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00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,960
this is serious stuff here. I
didn't no, house serious. It is.

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Still you wind up retiring and then
you don't have enough and then you're

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a greeter at ol Mart. Except
the greater job is probably going to be

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replaced by a robot soon, right, boy, you know what, I

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didn't even think about it like that. You're exactly right, Yeah, you

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know. I mean because it it
the front end capital for that robot is

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going to be way more expensive than
long term. You know, it's going

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00:19:45,279 --> 00:19:47,359
to be cheaper. You know,
they're never going to get sick. They

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don't need vacation, no benefits.
They just need a service to contract.

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Right, That's that's it. That's
it. Yep. Yeah, Well,

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00:19:56,079 --> 00:20:02,079
interesting times ahead for sure. Just
tell us where we find you. How

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00:20:02,079 --> 00:20:06,680
do we connect with you on the
web. Yeah, you can find us

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00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,759
at e g SI Financial dot com. That is the best way to find

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00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:14,599
us and get a hold of us
anytime. You need us all right,

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00:20:14,799 --> 00:20:19,240
and the link to that is in
the show notes this interview on Financial Survival

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00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,160
Network dot com. Make sure you
go there, sign up for your free

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00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,720
newsletter ED always a pleasure, and
we will be talking to you again real

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00:20:27,799 --> 00:20:32,960
soon. Absolutely my pleasure. Thanks
for having me back, thanks for listening

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00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:38,200
to carry Lets this Financial survival Network
your solution to today's trying times. For

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00:20:38,279 --> 00:20:45,920
the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork
dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:45,559
than ever,