WEBVTT

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Not a bad miles an hour riding
to his head, he hopping down first

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with the limbonius face, and on
the very next pitch he up and stole

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second face with greatest be He wasn't
born, he had yes, beautiforn.

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All right, Welcome to episode nineteen
of the Prospect b Sides podcast. I

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am Nate Handy joined me once again
as always, rook the consensus. Yeah,

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rook it, Nate, rook it. How are you, my friend?

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I'm good, I'm good. It's
like many people, we're experiencing a

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bit of that arctic blast that has
coming through town and hoping that the power

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stays on tonight. Pretty icy out
there. That would make for a poor

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podcast if you went. Mia,
one of my good buddies who lives on

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the east side of Washington State,
he likes to call anybody that lives over

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the mountains on the west side of
Washington or Oregon. He calls us all

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coasties. Even though you know I
live multiple hours from the Pacific Ocean.

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He's like, he just calls you
a coasty because if you're over the other

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side of the mountains, but us
coasties, we don't experience the winters like

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you do on the other side of
the mountains, especially not like you and

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the Rockies, Nate. So our
our little foray into this version of winter

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always comes with just terrible driving accidents
and lots of power and houses and lives

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are not set up for this.
So we're keeping our fingers crossed that everything

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stays on tonight. Well, me
too, and we need we need you

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to stay safe, my friend.
I'm excited about this episode, Matt.

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We're recording Wednesday night, right,
it's Wednesday night, No, no Tuesday,

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recording Tuesday night, and yesterday was
the International free agent signing whatever day.

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Just curious if you had any thoughts
on that, if you've been paying

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attention to any of that at all, I mean paid attention a little bit.

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Have read up on some of the
reports on the top of the class,

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you know, read Baseball America and
Ben Badler has great work there and

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are on Chris Klegg had some good
write ups too. I My take on

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this is that you just aren't going
to know for a long time, like

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even the guys at the very top
of the class, Like I just don't

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think you're gonna know for a while
how good these guys are. And somebody

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brought up in the discord. Like
a year and a bit ago, I

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was doing an FYPD and had some
questions between some guys, and I went

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back and looked at that particular FYPD
draft and a thirty teamer, and I

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got Joe Injury. Vargas was like
one fourteen or something in that in that

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draft, and like, now he
might be top one hundred, top fifty

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prospects for some guys, but like
he was a total dart throw and he

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was at the top of that J
fifteen class last year, near the top

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anyway, like top five for some
people. So I just think that there's

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such dart throws and you just really
don't know who's going to work out that

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I try not to sweat it too
too much, you know, like I'm

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not out there chasing the next one
of those guys. And even someone like

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Vargas who showed a lot last year, it's like he still doesn't come state

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side, still hasn't in the full
season ball like a lot can happen still

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right with that profile. So I
generally like it's sort of an interesting thing

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and borderline creepy, like where we
know what these sixteen year olds are doing

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in the Dominican or in Venezuela.
Like I've thought about that a lot.

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Like I mentioned some of my buddies
who are coaches in college, and you

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know they're like routinely talking to fifteen
year olds, Like, man, I

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was such an idiot at fifteen,
Like this is such a weird thing to

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care about as an adult person.
Yes, I concur you mentioned you had

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drafted Vargas in the league like otherre
certain leagues that you're more inclined to take

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a stab or not so much?
Or how do you play it? You?

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Where do you line these guys up
when you're getting ready for a first

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year player? I take it opportunistically. I think like in that thirty teamer

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I And again, are drafts coming
up in a couple of weeks. I

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have no high picks. My first
pick is probably in like the late fifties

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range, and then I've got a
couple in like the sixty to seventy range.

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And so how am I going to
line up whoever falls, because like

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the top guys in that in the
J fifteen class will likely get popped pretty

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well before I pick. But if
it's like a guy who got you know,

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a million bucks from the brewers or
something like, maybe I'll look to

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grab them. But I think I'm
less likely to do that this year because

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a We've done so much work in
looking at this FYBD class, like the

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last couple of episodes talking about all
the guys, and frankly, that familiar

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familiar with this class I think makes
me more interested in the what I know

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rather than just plopping a random bet
on something that somebody else says, you

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know what I mean. So I
think in that sense, like I'm even

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less likely to get an international free
agent guy this year than I might have

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been in previous years, just because
I have sort of a mental picture of

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this class, which I think is
pretty strong. The domestic amateur draft class

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was pretty good, so I think
for that reason too, like when I'm

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down in my sixties, pick hundred, pick one fifty, even, like

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maybe I'll drop a high upside take
and pick one of the J fifteen guys

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there, But I gotta say it's
probably unlikely for me. Yeah, you

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know, it's it's a trick.
It's a tricky thing. Like you know

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that there's gonna be some star players
that come to major league organizations via this

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route. That's no secret. But
like you, I'm just so much more

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inclined to, you know, take
a gamble on something that I know,

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something that I've seen. But that
being said that I kind of find myself

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coming a little bit more back to
the idea of taking stabs on some of

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these names and little Ben Badler blurbs
that I have read, I mean interesting,

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Tell me, tell me why.
What's kind of swayed your mind?

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What has swayed well? Like in
the leagues where you cannot pick up prospects

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in season, I think I'm more
likely too. I think I've mentioned that

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before, just in part because I
just see what some of my league mates

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are doing with that and having some
success getting some studs, and I want

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maybe a little piece of that,
And you know, trying to value and

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pick who you might go after is
really interesting to me. It's it's really

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kind of just a throwback to I
don't know when I first started getting interested

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in prospects many years ago, premilb
dot tv, where you read a blurb

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about a player and you made your
decisions off of that, off of very

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little right. Baddler is the FUKA
of any J fifteen international prospect opinion really,

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and I think I'm using that correctly, right, FUKA first, universal

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common ancestor, I think is the
scientific term. We are all related to

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some single cell organism that was struck
by lightning or something back in the day,

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right, I don't know it,
it's tricky. I'm more likely in

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those kinds of leagues. And I
think there's just like for me, just

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two main first year player drafts stories
for me involving these players. I took

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Malcolm Nunez whatever year that was,
that he just pore up the DSL at

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four hundred, slug eight hundred or
whatever it was, right, So you

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play those DSL stats and you know
we have seen how that has played out.

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You can hit some home runs,
but you know that's not a win

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in me any leagues. And then
I think I'm hesitant in leagues where you

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can pick up prospects in part because
like I drafted Jackson Curio round five of

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a thirty teamer his first year,
and I subsequently dropped him a few months

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later for Edward Julian. Do I
trust myself, but I'm going to really

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hang on to some of these guys
in a league like that, not really

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that's my That's my other concern with
J fifteen guys is I'm willing to be

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patient on a prospect, but I
mostly am interested in prospects so that I

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can sell them, trade them to
get a win now. Piece. I

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just think that generally speaking, we're
still, even in the dynasty world,

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still way too worried about next year
or the year after your contention window.

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And with you just keep red paper
clipping in and you can turn a prospect

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that nobody cares about into a performing, you know, maybe average big leaguer,

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but that that's value in a lot
of these big leagues. And look

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I took last draft season, I
took I took some stabs on Ethan Sallas,

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like thirty second, twenty fourth somewhere
in there, grabbed him in a

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few leagues. And I can tell
you right now, I have zero Ethan

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Sallas shares. Right. I don't
know if that was smart at all.

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I am very impressed that with that
player and what that could be. And

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I don't know if I made a
smart move or not, but he was

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sitting there and I was trying to
contend and get into playoffs and do damage.

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And I use that as an opportunity
to bolster that. Yeah, I've

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got Vargas I think in two deepish
leagues, one really deep league in one

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medium deep league, and it is
I would be absolutely astonished if he debuts

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with my team like there's if he
keeps doing really well next year when he

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comes to full season ball, the
chances are that I trade him for whatever

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top tier talent that I can get
from a non contending team, and he'll

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be one of my top trade chips. It's super hard for me to envision

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holding on to him for even the
three four years of an accelerated timeline for

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him. You know, I guess
maybe two at the very outset, if

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he follows like a Cheerio kind of
route or something. But yeah, I

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don't really see that happening for me. And so again it's and Salas and

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Vargas even are the better kinds of
outcomes for those international guys like a Sallas

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doesn't ever happen. Right. What
he did last year was insane, both

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the Padres deciding to promote him through
like four levels as a seventeen year old

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and sixteen year old and him doing
really well at some of those levels.

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That was crazy and speaks to his
talent, like, the kid is going

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to be, I think, a
phenomenal big leaguer, But is he likely

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to end up on an of my
teams? Like? Probably not, because,

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like you, I probably would have
traded them away already at this point.

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So that's I think my other point
on the that usually it takes a

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lot longer than that for them to
show that value, and so I'd rather

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use that draft pick as something that
is going to, like call it mature

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faster than a J fifteen prospect would. I don't know if we've ever mentioned

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David Foster Wallace on this show.
Have you read David Foster Wallace? Yeah,

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oh yeah, big fan. One
of my I mean, so many

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great quotes, but one of my
favorites is although, of course you end

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up becoming yourself, like know yourself. If you're not going to hang on

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to these guys and you know you're
not going to maybe maybe we don't waste

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a pick. Yeah, But AnyWho, Matt, let's get into what we're

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going to get into. I'm pumped
for this. We ended the last show

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taking some listener questions, particularly my
guy SPP. He asked us the Shelley

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v tweet thing, right, someone
who's gonna rise, someone who's going to

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fall, et cetera, et cetera. Right, Well, we answered for

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each other, and you just so
happened. And I didn't even realize this

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at the time, but you brought
up three players that I had just recently

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spoke about on a podcast in part
I wanted to kind of answer my guy's

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question a little better here and offer
out some other names. Not that your

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answer was poor, it was just
it was a repeat for my guy.

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Ah, I didn't even know that. Jesse Severe's Dynasty Sports Life. We

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talked about eight of our B side
selections, kind of the better ones,

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more interesting ones, And then we
had finished the show and you and I

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had started talking about what we were
going to do next, and we brought

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up the idea of coming up with
some hypothetical trades that we might make in

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that vein someone we might be fading
who's more popular than someone we may like

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who isn't quite as popular, that
sort of thing. Right. Then on

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top of that, there was an
interesting discord conversation in the Dynasty dugout where

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well, we had started talking about
Joandre Suarez, right, or is it

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Johander is the Jay Silent? I
think it's silent. I think it's Yeah.

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We started talking about him right,
posted some video and you had shared

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some high praise like you did on
on the B Side Show when you started

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talking about him as your Mets pitching
selection, and someone posted a great question

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in my opinion, and I'm going
to paraphrase a little, but it was

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something like, how can you advise
other people to sell a top one hundred

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prospect for some no name B side
guy that we've been talking about? Right?

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I think that I think that's pretty
much more or less what was said,

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Right. I think that's an extremely
fair and great question, and one

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that we could probably talk about for
hours. We may even sometimes we talk

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a lot after we're done recording,
too. But I want to kind of

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answer that, Like, I don't
know, what was it twenty twenty I

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think is when I at first started
doing some stuff at Picture List and taking

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this hobby of mine, just putting
more time into it, right, And

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like part of the reason was I
thought I could maybe add some pieces to

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these puzzles that we're trying to put
together with these players that maybe I thought

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weren't really being thrown out there very
much, and you can you can be

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the judge of that if I've if
any of that's been worth a wick or

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not. I mean, aside from
we always see prospects that are in top

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one hundreds that fall in and out
of that you had mentioned at the end

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of the show. I had asked
a last show, I had asked a

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somewhat rhetorical question, but I thought
your answer was extremely interesting. I'd asked,

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like, where does consensus opinion come
from? Right, And you had

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and you had in your answer said, when there's a lot of unknown,

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folks tend to herd together, right, feel safer that way. I think

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a lot of opinions start to get
you know, piggybacked off of other opinions

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and that sort of thing. Right, I think that's somewhat just like human

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nature. Right. We're seeing a
lot of that right now with these J

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fifteen stuff. Right, we don't
know hardly anything, and a lot of

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opinions are gonna breed from that and
get bred from that. And like,

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I almost want to go the other
way, right, there is so much

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unknown. I want to go and
try to find what the herd, so

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to speak, might be missing.
Right, but they might be not paying

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attention to baseball minor league baseball,
is Hugh Mongous. I've mentioned my friend

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Craig a few times in the prospect
One Room. He brings up this great

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point often, right, Like,
think about the major leagues in our fantasy

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leagues, and think about how much
discourse and digging around and numbers and research

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that go into trying to order the
first round of established major leaguers. There's

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a ton of different opinions on that, right, and lots of debating.

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Yet it's interesting that when we start
talking about prospects, with so many more

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gauntlets to run and so many more
variable still in play and so much unknown,

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that like, we are more in
line with each other's opinions and there's

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less debate on who the top five
guys are or whatever. That is extremely

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interesting to me, Matt, and
I think a great point by Craig.

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So that's part of my answer,
I guess to that question. But also

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too, when MiLB dot TV came
about what was it two thousand and eighteen,

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is that right? I started getting
addicted to watching these really crappy broadcasts

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of minor league baseball, and man, Matt, that was to me,

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just very very eye opening in a
lot of ways. I had never watched

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minor league baseball before, and like
I just came away with is very different

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opinions on some players. Well,
my eyeballs were telling me wasn't driving with

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some of the blurbs, right,
I dare say, if you haven't already,

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if you don't watch minor league baseball, well if you did, if

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you just set aside top one hundred
lists, dynasty lists, didn't pay any

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attention to them for a year and
just watch minor league baseball as obsessively at

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times that I have, I think
when you looked at the top one hundred

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list whenever you came back to society, you would have a lot of different

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opinions. I think sometimes with all
of these metrics and so many more,

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you know, people writing stuff and
like, you know, this is blown

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up big time. There's a lot
of content out there, right, But

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like sometimes I think, like just
we all learned about baseball by simply watching

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it. We all learned about players
just by watching. I learned that Eric

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Davis was one of my favorite players
because and that he was good at baseball

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by just watching as a ten year
old kid, or whatever. Right,

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you can pick up a lot of
things. You can come to some pretty

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solid conclusions in my opinion. My
five year old son, he's seven now,

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but when he was five he started
watching baseball, So, I mean

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Tim Anderson was his favorite player,
right, you want to know how Tim

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Anderson was doing it? You know, twenty twenty two, Tim Anderson was

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pretty good. I remember the field
I think it was two thousand through the

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Field of Dreams game when he hit
the walk off. Like, my son

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was watching that and he loved that. That was an awesome moment. And

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then last season, as a six
year old, he's sitting there and he's

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watching a White Sox game with me, and he turns and he says,

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Dad, how come Tim Anderson isn't
good anymore? Like my six year old

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son, who just learned a year
ago that when you hit the ball,

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you run the first base, could
pick up that Tim Anderson wasn't doing so

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00:18:47.799 --> 00:18:51.400
well, right, Like I think, sometimes it can be a lot simpler

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than we make it as well.
Right, we put a lot of time

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into this, Matt this offseason series
that we've done, a lot of hour

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we have I mean, I don't
I don't have much of a life other

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than being a dad going to work
and watch him minor league baseball. Right,

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That's pretty much where I'm at.
It's just it's hard for me.

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I want to be I'm gonna be
honest. I want to be honest.

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Right. I can't sit here and
watch a you know, they'll say,

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I say, I really get into
a picture I watch a Dylan Ray's a

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bunch of starts, right, I'm
gonna come away with with, Well,

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what I really want to do is
just kind of observe and report for the

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folks who do have lives and don't
get to watch these many starts by Dylan

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Ray or whatever, and just try
to try to do the best that I

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can to put that information what I've
seen out there. But of course,

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with all of this, people are
gonna want to know your opinion on things,

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and I just like, I can't
watch a guy like that and,

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regardless of where he might be ranked, tell you a lie and tell you

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that I don't think he's as good
as this guy or as good of a

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00:19:55.839 --> 00:20:02.480
bet, there's absolutely no certainties.
I know that a lot of what we

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talk about on this show people would
call like anecdotal, right, it's all

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anecdotal. Even if you're using numbers
like further, there might be better arguments.

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There might be some numbers that are
more telling than others, but this

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is not scientific. As many metrics
as you want to get into. I've

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had major league scouts, amateur scouts
who man blue collar stuff. Man scouts

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work a ton and it is a
grind, and they have way better tools

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and resources than we do. Right, anyone in the Dynasty world, And

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like I had a scout coming up
on the twenty twenty two draft just really

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not have a very high opinion of
Caden Dana, right. I think you

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had them as like the seventeenth best
right hand prep pitcher in that draft class.

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Like, sure, this is very
early and nothing can be can be

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sett in stony right. These stories
have not been written on these players.

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Stories have not been written on the
players that I started writing about in twenty

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00:21:07.039 --> 00:21:14.079
twenty, right, But I mean
that doesn't look like maybe what's really happening

281
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right now. I think there's probably
not fourteen right hand pitchers from that prep

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class that you would rather have in
your Dynasty league right now. My point

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is not that he was dumb for
that he had great reasons right to me,

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in my opinion, you have reasons
why you might come to some conclusions.

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Some might be good, some might
be shit. Right, I've had

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both, So that's it. That's
all we got is reasons, and I

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am going to try to share reasons
why I've come to some opinions in this

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Dungeons and Dragons baseball game that we
are obsessed with. So a couple of

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00:21:52.440 --> 00:21:59.839
things nate to what you said.
You know you reference David Foster Wallace earlier

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on and love him as a fiction
writer and nonfiction writer. I think I've

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learned a lot from him, both
about writing and also about life and philosophy.

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And the closest I think that baseball
has to David Foster Wallace is a

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guy named Sam Miller. I'm not
sure if you've ever read any of Sam

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Miller's stuff, but Sam has written
a bunch of places. He was an

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ESPN for a while. He now
has just an absolutely phenomenal substack that I

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highly recommend any baseball fan should check
out. And he was the founding co

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host of Effectively Wild, one of
the all time great baseball podcasts. And

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Sam I cannot get enough of all
of the things that he wrote. But

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as you were talking, you mentioned
that all of this is anecdotal, and

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in the absence of deterministic stats,
it's we are just kind of scattering about

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in the dark. And Sam wrote
an article about this in twenty seven where

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he said, could you figure out
who the best player in baseball is?

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Just by watching? So if you
had no access to stats, no context

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at all. So if you show
up to a game, who's the best

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player? And he, in his
typical Sam Miller way, breaks it down

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in a few different ways. So
there's the total anarchy where you might just

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like watch a guy for a week
and you're like, this is the coolest

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player I've ever seen. And over
the course of a week, baseball players

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00:23:29.799 --> 00:23:32.480
can kind of do anything right,
Like you can just have a hot streak,

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you never miss your have perfect command
for that full week, and you

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look like the best baseball player on
the planet, whether you're just locked in,

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you're in the zone, whatever it
is, and over that short time

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period, maybe you do look like
the best player that ever lived. Then

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there's the like, who's pretty good
at everything? So you want to see

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00:23:49.759 --> 00:23:53.400
somebody who's, oh, they're fast, they can throw the ball really hard.

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00:23:53.480 --> 00:23:56.559
They can hit the ball really hard, and they seem to like hit

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the ball a lot. Maybe that's
the player. It's really good, and

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you can use that as a heuristic
to evaluate. And then there's the wow

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philosophy, like who's tools stand out
so much that it's impossible that they're not

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among the very best players in baseball? And we're doing some of that right,

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Like, we don't do it in
those exact terms, but what I

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think we do try and articulate is
the why behind we're interested in somebody.

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So it might be one standout tool, and I hope we're doing a better

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job than some about saying why that
tool might be interesting because like, you

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know, yeah, guy throws the
all really hard from the outfield. It's

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like that is a cool play and
when I'm at a game, that's one

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of the most fun things to watch. But does it help you in this

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silly little game that we play,
Like probably not. So that's less interesting

329
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than say a pitcher who has a
really weird looking arm angle or an approach

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to pitching that sets him apart from
his peers. And I think that while

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I certainly do try and lean on
the stats, like I think they are

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trying to tell us something, and
they're a good barometer for what our eyes

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00:25:11.720 --> 00:25:17.599
are easily duped about. It's I
like telling the story with both right,

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Like you want to see somebody that
does something exceptional, or you might see

335
00:25:22.440 --> 00:25:26.319
an explanation for why their stats look
one way or another, and then we're

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00:25:26.359 --> 00:25:30.160
trying to explain that in the best
way that we can, perhaps not quite

337
00:25:30.200 --> 00:25:34.359
as eloquently as David Foster Welser or
Sam Miller, but in our own b

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side munning way. We're trying to
tell that story with the information that we

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00:25:40.680 --> 00:25:44.799
have exactly what our off season thing. We've talked. We've talked about hundreds

340
00:25:44.839 --> 00:25:48.119
and hundreds of players, and just
by nath alone, a couple of those

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00:25:48.480 --> 00:25:52.799
guys are gonna pop. Like,
in no way do I ever want to

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00:25:52.839 --> 00:25:59.039
try to present that I am some
sort of like mystic crystal baller. I've

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00:25:59.039 --> 00:26:03.400
got this thing figured out sort of
thing. No spreadsheet has figured it out,

344
00:26:03.640 --> 00:26:07.000
no scout has figured it all out. I think some great hits been

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dead on about some things that have
come to fruition. And I've also would

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00:26:11.799 --> 00:26:17.319
have rather Johandrik Panango over ze Field
Tobar a few years ago. I thought

347
00:26:17.400 --> 00:26:22.079
Bryce Jarvis was going to that there
were reasons and things that I saw that

348
00:26:22.160 --> 00:26:26.759
Bryce Jarvis might turn into a stud
pitching prospect. Right, You're gonna have

349
00:26:26.839 --> 00:26:30.720
hits and misses, and that in
part to answer this question why should someone

350
00:26:30.920 --> 00:26:34.160
listen to you, Well, I
mean I'm trying to answer that. That's

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00:26:34.200 --> 00:26:38.200
why I track pretty much all the
players that we've talked about that I've talked

352
00:26:38.240 --> 00:26:42.240
about that I've labeled as B side
guys, trying to talking about the thirty

353
00:26:42.240 --> 00:26:47.119
three percent hit rate so to speak. Right, I don't know if if

354
00:26:47.400 --> 00:26:51.119
anything that I'm doing is special or
worthwhile, but all I can promise is

355
00:26:51.119 --> 00:26:56.160
that, like I'm putting time into
it, and maybe some of that can

356
00:26:56.240 --> 00:26:59.759
be can be useful. So,
like I think how I kind of left

357
00:26:59.799 --> 00:27:03.519
the little discord discussion was you put
the time in, you do your work,

358
00:27:03.799 --> 00:27:08.599
you come to your conclusions, and
however that might look towards other people's

359
00:27:08.599 --> 00:27:15.119
opinions, like so be it.
So am I advising you to trade some

360
00:27:15.279 --> 00:27:18.119
of these top fifty picks that I'm
going to talk about for the players that

361
00:27:18.160 --> 00:27:22.119
I'm going to recommend or get into
here. No, I'm not advising anything

362
00:27:23.519 --> 00:27:27.359
that's for you to decide. You
got to take what pieces of all these

363
00:27:27.400 --> 00:27:32.920
puzzles and make whatever kind of picture
you think might be there. So I

364
00:27:32.920 --> 00:27:36.599
don't advise anyone, but I hope
that we do a good job of just

365
00:27:36.960 --> 00:27:40.559
shedding some light on some other players
out there. I mean, when you

366
00:27:40.599 --> 00:27:42.440
and I have talked before, like
sometimes the I don't know, I kind

367
00:27:42.440 --> 00:27:47.599
of feel like in the Dynasty world, the gap in talent between these guys

368
00:27:47.640 --> 00:27:52.039
with high brown names and unless you're
named just isn't really as big as is

369
00:27:52.119 --> 00:27:56.359
pretended. Sometimes, at least That's
what I'm gathering over the last since the

370
00:27:56.400 --> 00:28:03.039
advent of MiLB dot TV. It's
also constantly changing, and I think that

371
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one of the things that we're trying
to come in with is another view.

372
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And sometimes it's reasons why we're more
interested in a prospect than others are,

373
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and sometimes it's why we maybe have
some questions. And I think that's a

374
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little bit of the spirit of this
show, where we're going to talk about

375
00:28:22.119 --> 00:28:26.079
some high brow names, as you
like to say, and who we might

376
00:28:26.519 --> 00:28:30.880
envision flipping them for, not to
say that they're bad, not to say

377
00:28:30.880 --> 00:28:34.759
that they're not incredibly talented. Like
I shared Fields with these guys, and

378
00:28:36.279 --> 00:28:38.480
they were all very clearly better than
me then, and they are for sure

379
00:28:38.599 --> 00:28:45.079
way better than me now. And
I hope that some of that comes through

380
00:28:45.119 --> 00:28:51.559
that this is still a lot of
appreciation for their talent and they're doing one

381
00:28:51.599 --> 00:28:55.960
of the hardest, most entertaining things
to do, and we're just trying to

382
00:28:56.000 --> 00:28:59.920
see through the fog. Right,
you know, this is fun too,

383
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:03.880
Like, you know, we're playing
fantasy to have fun, so let's not

384
00:29:03.079 --> 00:29:07.079
let's not forget that, but like
and also too on the top, like

385
00:29:07.200 --> 00:29:10.200
I don't know, I play in
some leaves with some like sharp guys,

386
00:29:10.359 --> 00:29:14.680
guys who pay attention, read lists, watch games, And if you want

387
00:29:14.720 --> 00:29:18.480
to get ahead of those guys,
you want a little advantage of those kids.

388
00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:22.240
That's the name of the game in
my opinion. Who's popular, who's

389
00:29:22.559 --> 00:29:26.680
coveted by other owners that maybe you
don't really care for, And how can

390
00:29:26.720 --> 00:29:29.559
you get you know, how can
you turn that into a profit for you?

391
00:29:30.160 --> 00:29:32.880
So I was thinking, mat like, man, what if we lived

392
00:29:32.920 --> 00:29:38.200
in some sort of like authoritarian baseball
loving country and they like made you fly

393
00:29:38.559 --> 00:29:44.720
to have a podcast or write about
baseball prospects, like I mean, look

394
00:29:44.759 --> 00:29:48.960
at us any Joe schmos can can
write stuff and put out podcasts, right,

395
00:29:48.200 --> 00:29:51.720
And I get that. I get
that as a as a listener,

396
00:29:52.359 --> 00:29:56.279
You've you've got a lot of stuff
to a lot of voices and a lot

397
00:29:56.279 --> 00:30:00.000
of tweets to siphon through and who's
that coming from and all that sort of

398
00:30:00.039 --> 00:30:03.359
jass. So I want to apply
for a B side license, Matt.

399
00:30:03.400 --> 00:30:07.279
I want to apply for one night, and I'm going to do that by

400
00:30:07.319 --> 00:30:14.480
offering up some hypothetical trades that I
want to impress the application committee with and

401
00:30:14.559 --> 00:30:18.359
hopefully we'll revisit these in a year
and kind of see if I maybe you

402
00:30:18.400 --> 00:30:23.440
can earn that license and or at
least still remain in consideration. I don't

403
00:30:23.480 --> 00:30:27.039
know. I thought I might like
it. I like it. I've done

404
00:30:27.039 --> 00:30:32.440
my homework a little bit as well. And maybe this is me showing my

405
00:30:32.720 --> 00:30:37.799
lack of humility here, but I
think I would do all of these trades

406
00:30:37.839 --> 00:30:41.839
that I'm going to propose. So
you know, those of you in dynasty

407
00:30:41.880 --> 00:30:44.720
leagues with me, and if you
call me out, if if you want

408
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:48.799
to offer up one of these trades, yeah, let's let's put a little

409
00:30:48.799 --> 00:30:51.680
bit of our you know, money
where our mouth is. I mean,

410
00:30:51.799 --> 00:30:55.039
we don't have any money, but
let's put a show where our mouth is.

411
00:30:55.200 --> 00:30:56.680
Like, if there's a day where
I'm like, man, mate,

412
00:30:56.720 --> 00:31:00.400
you just need to shut up.
You're not good at this. One needs

413
00:31:00.440 --> 00:31:03.359
to hear your stupid opinions, Like, I'm just gonna I'll shut up,

414
00:31:03.079 --> 00:31:07.799
I'll walk away. It's fine by
me. I'm trying. I'm seeing,

415
00:31:07.960 --> 00:31:11.359
I'm seeing if there's any worth to
the time that we're putting into this.

416
00:31:11.720 --> 00:31:15.000
It's just it's going to take a
while to find out, I think.

417
00:31:15.039 --> 00:31:18.039
But uh yeah, let's put a
show where I'm out is man, all

418
00:31:18.119 --> 00:31:21.039
right, I'll let I think you
might have a few more than me,

419
00:31:21.319 --> 00:31:23.319
at least formally set up here,
so I'll let you go first. For

420
00:31:23.759 --> 00:31:29.680
those of you in the Chris Klegg's
Dynasty Dugout discord, this won't be that

421
00:31:29.880 --> 00:31:36.279
much of a surprise because I've kind
of teased this was my headliner hot take

422
00:31:36.559 --> 00:31:44.119
out here earlier this week. I've
seen Walker Jenkins popped as as high as

423
00:31:44.319 --> 00:31:48.759
five overall in prospects, not in
the class you know, he's taking fifth

424
00:31:48.799 --> 00:31:53.079
overall in the real life draft,
but I've seen him already vaulted up to

425
00:31:53.359 --> 00:32:00.759
number five overall. Even Chris has
has him at number six. I think

426
00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:05.200
MLB Pipeline might be the low one. They haven't updated their lists, but

427
00:32:05.279 --> 00:32:09.759
I think they're the low ones at
sixteen. So this is like pretty universal

428
00:32:10.200 --> 00:32:15.480
top tier. This guy not just
as a real life stud high schooler eighteen

429
00:32:15.559 --> 00:32:22.319
years old out of drafted by Minnesota, but this is a no doubt fantasy

430
00:32:22.519 --> 00:32:28.319
like already has sort of won over
the fantasy community. And there was a

431
00:32:28.400 --> 00:32:31.559
tweet shared, and I'm not going
to be able to give correct attribution.

432
00:32:31.839 --> 00:32:36.880
There's a tweet shared in the discord
a while ago. Looking at over I

433
00:32:36.960 --> 00:32:40.400
think it was just last year,
all of the players twenty and under at

434
00:32:40.480 --> 00:32:46.319
a ball comparing their swinging strike rate
and their ninetieth percentele exitvelocity, sort of

435
00:32:46.359 --> 00:32:52.119
good measure of sort of what's your
power production and your contact skills. And

436
00:32:52.640 --> 00:32:54.440
there were a lot of really interesting
names on this list. I think for

437
00:32:54.480 --> 00:33:00.240
another time to dive into some of
those, but I was struck by Akar

438
00:33:00.359 --> 00:33:06.440
Jenkins name being where it was,
which is way below average on the ninetieth

439
00:33:06.440 --> 00:33:13.279
percentile exit below and slightly above our
average I think, significantly above five percentile

440
00:33:13.599 --> 00:33:16.680
just to be ninety fifth percentile to
be accurate, Okay, so ninety fifth

441
00:33:16.720 --> 00:33:22.680
percentile, and if I'm remembering it
right, his ninety fifth percentile was like

442
00:33:22.799 --> 00:33:28.119
one oh two something like that,
somebody in that range. So and good

443
00:33:28.200 --> 00:33:31.000
swinging strike rate. I think the
number that I have for him on that

444
00:33:31.279 --> 00:33:37.200
is comfortably plus at nine point one
percent is what I have. I'm not

445
00:33:37.200 --> 00:33:38.960
sure if that was the same.
One on one and a half was one

446
00:33:39.079 --> 00:33:42.519
one and a half. Yeah,
so one on one and a half was

447
00:33:42.519 --> 00:33:47.960
his ninety fifth percent exit VELO four
context, that is well below average for

448
00:33:49.400 --> 00:33:53.920
major leaguers. I think the average
for major leaguers for ninety fifth is closer

449
00:33:53.960 --> 00:34:00.759
to like one oh five. The
average MLB average ninety fifth percentile according to

450
00:34:00.799 --> 00:34:04.240
this was one O five. Yeah, one O five, one oh five

451
00:34:04.279 --> 00:34:07.519
point seventy nine, which is what
the data that I have, So way

452
00:34:07.760 --> 00:34:14.000
above that. And if you turn
that into the scouting grade, that's like

453
00:34:14.440 --> 00:34:17.840
thirty, a thirty, maybe even
a twenty five on that grade, so

454
00:34:17.920 --> 00:34:22.480
like near bottom of the scale for
power. So that caused me to start

455
00:34:22.519 --> 00:34:28.960
asking some questions like, oh,
that's super interesting this guy who is receiving

456
00:34:29.119 --> 00:34:36.079
just near universal dynasty praise after being
drafted very highly. That's a pretty low

457
00:34:36.199 --> 00:34:40.679
number. I've written before about how
I'm a little bit skeptical of the scouting

458
00:34:40.760 --> 00:34:45.199
aphorism, like that they're going to
grow into their power. I think that

459
00:34:45.440 --> 00:34:51.519
the actual power growth is more limited
than a lot of people would care to

460
00:34:51.559 --> 00:34:54.559
admit. And I know that BA
has referenced some of this that there.

461
00:34:54.679 --> 00:35:00.000
You can expect it from the teenage
years, like sixteen, seventeen, eighteen

462
00:35:00.239 --> 00:35:04.960
up till about twenty one. You
can expect some power growth, but it's

463
00:35:05.000 --> 00:35:08.760
not huge amounts. I think it's
something like two or three miles per hour

464
00:35:08.800 --> 00:35:13.440
off of their ninetieth percent ale exit
velo. You can expect it to rise,

465
00:35:13.639 --> 00:35:16.920
and that's not universal. There are
some guys for whom it never rises

466
00:35:17.199 --> 00:35:23.199
or they're already showing their max power
their power potential at that age, and

467
00:35:23.199 --> 00:35:27.880
then there are other guys that can
significantly bump it up. I'll believe that

468
00:35:27.920 --> 00:35:30.239
it's certainly a spectrum. But this
is a data point that we have,

469
00:35:30.559 --> 00:35:36.679
and I think is one that I
haven't seen talked about I've seen. I

470
00:35:36.719 --> 00:35:40.880
think Baseball America gave Jenkins like a
future sixty five grade on his game power

471
00:35:40.960 --> 00:35:46.840
output. I've seen others say sixty
on the power, and he did pop

472
00:35:46.960 --> 00:35:52.760
three home runs in a relatively limited
pro sample this year, but that's a

473
00:35:52.760 --> 00:35:57.280
pretty low number. And I will
note Beck Zach Beck reminded me that he

474
00:35:57.320 --> 00:35:59.960
did have a hamdmate injury that he
was coming back from, and that is

475
00:36:00.320 --> 00:36:06.440
notorious for sapping power from hitters.
So all those caveats aside, I did

476
00:36:06.480 --> 00:36:10.400
some other digging into his batted ball
profile. So he's got good contact,

477
00:36:10.400 --> 00:36:14.480
he doesn't strike out very much,
but he swings kind of a lot and

478
00:36:14.960 --> 00:36:20.000
doesn't walk either. So I looked
at who what's the shape of that production,

479
00:36:20.199 --> 00:36:23.920
so kind of ignoring his babbit,
ignoring his homer's homer flyball ratio,

480
00:36:24.000 --> 00:36:30.360
which are noisy season to season and
are huge drivers of your overall weighted runs

481
00:36:30.360 --> 00:36:34.000
created. Plus, if you ignore
those things that aren't really sticky that have

482
00:36:34.079 --> 00:36:37.639
wild fluctuations year to year, you
can maybe learn a little something about who

483
00:36:37.840 --> 00:36:42.960
has similar looking production at the major
league level. So this is a super

484
00:36:43.000 --> 00:36:46.440
simple tool that I like to use
to help give context for what does this

485
00:36:46.559 --> 00:36:52.400
production translate? How does it look
in the big leagues? And with Walker

486
00:36:52.480 --> 00:36:55.679
Jenkins twelve point two percent k rate
on the year last year and seven point

487
00:36:55.719 --> 00:36:59.719
eight percent walk rate. On the
year, he ran a graund ball rate

488
00:36:59.760 --> 00:37:04.159
of four forty seven point one percent
and a flyball rate of twenty eight point

489
00:37:04.199 --> 00:37:07.920
seven percent, and the ground ball
rate was well above major league average,

490
00:37:07.960 --> 00:37:14.599
and the flyball rate was well below. The guys in the major leagues last

491
00:37:14.679 --> 00:37:20.880
year who most resembled those four components
were Bryson Stott Okay, not bad,

492
00:37:20.719 --> 00:37:23.480
had a solid year, certainly outperformed
my expectations. A lot of that was

493
00:37:23.480 --> 00:37:27.599
the value that he returned from his
steels, but still pretty good season for

494
00:37:27.880 --> 00:37:31.199
stop. But the next three Kevin
Newman, Tyler Freeman, and Geo Orshella.

495
00:37:31.360 --> 00:37:36.960
That's not good company, I would
say, especially for somebody who I

496
00:37:37.000 --> 00:37:42.440
think it's fair to say that the
speed maybe is average. Like I think

497
00:37:42.480 --> 00:37:45.039
he's a pretty athletic guy, but
I don't think speed is his calling card.

498
00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:49.760
I have seen him get fifties.
I think Fangrafts maybe gave him a

499
00:37:49.800 --> 00:37:52.920
forty future speed grade, so slightly
below average because he's a big guy and

500
00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:57.800
maybe they expect him to fill out
a bit. So you're talking about for

501
00:37:58.239 --> 00:38:01.119
fantasy kind of rotisseary five by a
guy who isn't going to be an impact

502
00:38:01.159 --> 00:38:05.679
based dealer. Hits the ball in
the ground a lot like those guys.

503
00:38:06.000 --> 00:38:10.559
That's a line drive, slap hitting, low strikeout contact kind of guy,

504
00:38:10.800 --> 00:38:16.559
and that's a limited profile for the
major leagues. And while he's a big

505
00:38:16.599 --> 00:38:22.039
guy and there's great scouting grades on
the power projection, I'm a little concerned

506
00:38:22.440 --> 00:38:27.719
at a near bottom of the scale
first showing in pro ball with a one

507
00:38:27.760 --> 00:38:31.280
on one five ninety fifth percentle exit
BULO. Even with all of those small

508
00:38:31.320 --> 00:38:36.719
samples, I think there's some signal
to that noise. One of the books

509
00:38:36.719 --> 00:38:38.559
behind me on the shelter you guys
can't see is The Signal and the Noise

510
00:38:38.599 --> 00:38:42.920
by Nate Silver. And one of
the things that we try and do with

511
00:38:43.239 --> 00:38:47.199
looking at the data is what about
this is telling us something? And one

512
00:38:47.239 --> 00:38:51.800
of it is just noise. And
when we say something as a super small

513
00:38:51.840 --> 00:38:57.039
sample or small sample size alert triples, it usually means that maybe there's some

514
00:38:57.199 --> 00:39:00.440
noise in there, and that is
likely true with just what did he have

515
00:39:00.719 --> 00:39:04.880
this year? One hundred and fifteen
played appearances in pro ball. That's not

516
00:39:05.000 --> 00:39:08.280
very many. However, I think
it's telling us something, and maybe it's

517
00:39:08.320 --> 00:39:14.960
telling us more than we're giving it
credit for. Certainly I would listen to

518
00:39:15.000 --> 00:39:17.360
that data and say, maybe some
of the pre draft grades were wrong.

519
00:39:17.599 --> 00:39:22.400
The scouts get this wrong all the
time, and the only thing that ends

520
00:39:22.480 --> 00:39:24.559
up mattering is performance on the field. And so I think this is gonna

521
00:39:24.960 --> 00:39:29.559
skew my view of Jenkins a little
bit. And I'm going to kind of

522
00:39:29.559 --> 00:39:32.320
ignore the one fifty nine point seven
WRC plus that you put up this year

523
00:39:32.400 --> 00:39:37.119
and say, like, I'm a
little concerned about the shape of that profile

524
00:39:37.320 --> 00:39:44.440
and looking at some guys that are
seemingly universally ranked behind him now, well,

525
00:39:44.440 --> 00:39:47.840
one of them is Max Clark,
who got taken one pick before Jenkins

526
00:39:47.840 --> 00:39:52.960
in the draft, who has maybe
double plus speed thing we should care about

527
00:39:53.000 --> 00:39:59.400
for fantasy. I think is considered
a plus center fielder and had a very

528
00:39:59.440 --> 00:40:04.440
strong showing for his debut as well. And like, again, there are

529
00:40:04.480 --> 00:40:07.639
some places that have these two super
close. So I'm not saying like you

530
00:40:07.639 --> 00:40:12.400
could flip them one for one or
even that's the end of the equation.

531
00:40:12.519 --> 00:40:16.880
But for Max Clark, his again
one hundred and seven plate appearances was only

532
00:40:17.039 --> 00:40:20.840
one to eleven WRC plus, so
maybe he will draft at him, and

533
00:40:20.840 --> 00:40:22.320
they're like, I'm a little soured
on that. I was hoping for more,

534
00:40:22.599 --> 00:40:28.719
and I think the shape of his
production is actually a lot more encouraging.

535
00:40:28.880 --> 00:40:30.639
Even though he struck out a lot
more. He hit a lot more

536
00:40:30.639 --> 00:40:36.360
fly balls, almost ten percentage points
more fly balls, sorry, only six

537
00:40:36.400 --> 00:40:39.760
percent percentage points more, but walked
a lot more, showed a lot more

538
00:40:39.800 --> 00:40:45.239
speed, And the closest comps for
Max Clark's shape of his production are Randy

539
00:40:45.239 --> 00:40:50.119
A. Rose Arena, Paul Goldschmidt, and Dansby Swanson. Like, that's

540
00:40:50.519 --> 00:40:57.400
a more interesting fantasy profile to me
in this super simple comps tool than the

541
00:40:57.400 --> 00:41:00.880
ones produced by Walker Jenkins. So
I'm like, that's one that I would

542
00:41:00.880 --> 00:41:05.599
probably make straight up, and I
think a bunch of people seem like they'd

543
00:41:05.599 --> 00:41:08.320
be really excited to take Jenkins off
your hands and you could get something else

544
00:41:08.360 --> 00:41:13.800
thrown in maybe as well. But
another one that I'm even more excited about

545
00:41:14.079 --> 00:41:19.199
that I think is farther apart in
a bunch of fantasy rankings is Emanuel Rodriguez,

546
00:41:19.239 --> 00:41:22.360
who is someone that I've talked about
just being so taken in with this,

547
00:41:22.719 --> 00:41:27.960
with his plate approach, his power
and his speed that especially in an

548
00:41:27.960 --> 00:41:31.360
OVP five by five league. I
think Emmanuel or Rodriguez might be the just

549
00:41:31.760 --> 00:41:37.840
clear, far and away number one
prospect in all of baseball in fantasy baseball

550
00:41:37.920 --> 00:41:42.360
coming out of next year, because
he actually does seem to have top of

551
00:41:42.400 --> 00:41:45.760
the scale raw power and hits an
absolute crap ton of fly balls, so

552
00:41:45.840 --> 00:41:50.559
he's going to get to all of
that power. Takes walks more than anybody

553
00:41:50.639 --> 00:41:53.480
in the minor leagues, so he
gets on base and is fast. I

554
00:41:53.480 --> 00:41:58.800
think, has plus speed and has
shown a willingness to steal some bases in

555
00:41:58.840 --> 00:42:04.440
the past. Speed grade is quite
high on fangrafts for what that's worth,

556
00:42:04.559 --> 00:42:07.599
and the shape of that production I
think is just like so exciting to me

557
00:42:07.800 --> 00:42:13.440
that that is somebody that I would
happily trade one for one over Jenkins in

558
00:42:13.639 --> 00:42:17.840
basically any kind of league, and
except maybe a league a points league that

559
00:42:17.960 --> 00:42:22.239
like just murders strike out right,
because Rodriguez his big knock is that he

560
00:42:22.280 --> 00:42:25.639
strikes out way too much. So
for my first one, I would say,

561
00:42:25.679 --> 00:42:30.960
like I would straight up take Max
Clark over Jenkins just in both super

562
00:42:30.960 --> 00:42:36.119
limited sample sizes, and would one
hundred percent take him in or Rodriguez ever

563
00:42:36.159 --> 00:42:39.000
both, and I think that that's
a minority opinion, so you could likely

564
00:42:39.000 --> 00:42:43.320
get something else thrown in on the
side. So that's my first one.

565
00:42:43.320 --> 00:42:46.199
It's not really a surprise, just
given I've talked at length about both of

566
00:42:46.239 --> 00:42:50.719
those guys in the Dynasty d I
got Discord, but that's pretty concerned about

567
00:42:50.760 --> 00:42:57.280
Walker Jenkins, and I really don't
understand the just lock everywhere that he's a

568
00:42:57.280 --> 00:43:00.519
fantasy star in the making. That's
an interesting one to put down on your

569
00:43:00.519 --> 00:43:02.800
application, sir. I just want
to put out there too, these that's

570
00:43:02.840 --> 00:43:08.079
a pretty small sample size of battered
balls, and there was that injury.

571
00:43:08.880 --> 00:43:13.599
But you know, when we're talking
about minor leagues, young players, that's

572
00:43:13.639 --> 00:43:16.679
a small sample size, and we're
this is a small sample size inside a

573
00:43:16.719 --> 00:43:21.199
small sample size. And shoot,
I've I've talked about some players that I

574
00:43:21.280 --> 00:43:23.880
watched pitch two innings, right,
like, that's what we got. So

575
00:43:24.320 --> 00:43:29.280
like, at this juncture, how
are we gonna take all these these pieces

576
00:43:29.320 --> 00:43:30.320
and how are we gonna put them
together? Right? And you know,

577
00:43:30.440 --> 00:43:36.199
Matt, we don't have to look
back too far to see a very highly

578
00:43:36.239 --> 00:43:40.719
touted, very loved by the fantasy
community. Prep bat go from where Jenkins

579
00:43:40.840 --> 00:43:45.199
is right now, I think roughly
to uh where he is now. And

580
00:43:45.199 --> 00:43:50.199
that's why I'm just gonna segue into
this one. I was gonna do a

581
00:43:50.199 --> 00:43:52.840
little bit of a different order,
neither here nor there. I was kind

582
00:43:52.880 --> 00:43:57.000
of thinking, I'm inheriting a team
here and I got these guys, What

583
00:43:57.039 --> 00:43:59.840
am I gonna do with them?
But I'm gonna trade Drew Jones Matt.

584
00:44:00.039 --> 00:44:02.559
We've mentioned him, I think maybe
once. And we're doing this on the

585
00:44:02.599 --> 00:44:07.079
eve of Baseball America dropping their new
top one hundred, which is just kind

586
00:44:07.119 --> 00:44:10.719
of fun, kind of curious to
see where some guys that we mentioned tonight

587
00:44:10.800 --> 00:44:15.519
might end up there tomorrow. Mean
while you're at the time listening to this,

588
00:44:15.920 --> 00:44:19.960
But let's see Drew Jones. These
are all public lists. BA had

589
00:44:20.000 --> 00:44:23.159
him at seventy eight, Clegg had
him at fifty three, Pipeline had him

590
00:44:23.199 --> 00:44:28.440
at thirty three, which was the
average rank of like fifty five. He's

591
00:44:28.519 --> 00:44:31.440
rostered in forty two percent of fan
tracks leads. But man, I don't

592
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:36.119
want to. I ain't calling him
the B word, But if I had

593
00:44:36.159 --> 00:44:38.519
to make a bet right now,
very black or white, is he a

594
00:44:38.559 --> 00:44:43.320
bust? Or is he not?
I'm gonna lean bust, like you had

595
00:44:43.360 --> 00:44:46.400
mentioned this a couple of shows ago. But I do wonder if there is

596
00:44:46.519 --> 00:44:52.280
something kind of fundamentally broken in his
mechanics and in his swing. Now what

597
00:44:52.599 --> 00:44:59.800
he got in twelve complex games twenty
nine A ball games is very young,

598
00:45:00.320 --> 00:45:06.440
tons of pedigree, tons of talent. Otherwise the Diamondbacks wouldn't have taken him

599
00:45:06.440 --> 00:45:09.559
so high. Like I get that, I could look like a total buffoon

600
00:45:09.719 --> 00:45:14.159
here given all the things that we
know. This is how I'm leaning and

601
00:45:14.159 --> 00:45:19.880
what in the complex? Now?
Excuse me? The complex wasn't so bad

602
00:45:20.159 --> 00:45:22.719
in those twelve games. But his
twenty nine A ball games, he hit

603
00:45:22.719 --> 00:45:27.119
the ball on the ground sixty one
point three twenty six percent of the time.

604
00:45:27.159 --> 00:45:30.400
He went opposite field forty eight percent
of the time according to fangrafs,

605
00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:35.119
the swing strike rate of thirteen point
two percent. He did hit a couple

606
00:45:35.159 --> 00:45:39.199
of home runs, he did steal
six bases and iso under one. Aside

607
00:45:39.199 --> 00:45:43.760
from the numbers, just like I
had said, I think he might be

608
00:45:43.840 --> 00:45:47.599
broke, and who knows, maybe
that can be fixed. But I definitely

609
00:45:49.480 --> 00:45:53.760
in not valuting Drew Jones like a
top fifty ish bat to me, Jeff

610
00:45:53.800 --> 00:45:57.840
Pond said this to me a couple
of years ago, and it stuck with

611
00:45:57.880 --> 00:46:02.159
me at any given point, like, truly, how many guys you really

612
00:46:02.239 --> 00:46:07.599
want to bet on are like future
everyday players? Like how deep does that

613
00:46:07.679 --> 00:46:12.519
list really go? And I think
he had said something and I kind of

614
00:46:12.559 --> 00:46:15.760
said it at like forty to fifty
prospects, I think, And of course

615
00:46:15.760 --> 00:46:19.960
it's different every year, but that's
about the market, like where I think

616
00:46:20.000 --> 00:46:24.000
you really want to value these guys, and anything beyond that, I think

617
00:46:24.000 --> 00:46:29.320
it gets really dicey. You really
want to bet that they're everyday players.

618
00:46:29.400 --> 00:46:34.280
And now, of course that also
implies that you're liigning those guys up well

619
00:46:34.360 --> 00:46:37.920
in the top forty or fifty,
right, Drew Jones Before the BA new

620
00:46:37.960 --> 00:46:42.159
Top one hundred comes out tomorrow,
I'm going to try to trade them tonight,

621
00:46:42.519 --> 00:46:45.320
And I'm gonna this might be kind
of ass hattish of me, but

622
00:46:45.400 --> 00:46:50.840
I am going for some style points
here in these trades. I want to

623
00:46:50.920 --> 00:46:54.360
impress if maybe I can just hit
one of these, but hit it like

624
00:46:54.400 --> 00:46:59.599
in a really great way, maybe
this license committee will let me stick around

625
00:46:59.599 --> 00:47:01.360
for a little. I think I
got a no brainer here my trades.

626
00:47:01.519 --> 00:47:04.360
I talk in my leagues. If
you're in a league with me, I

627
00:47:04.400 --> 00:47:07.000
like to use the phrase no brainer, no brainer trade is sitting in your

628
00:47:07.000 --> 00:47:10.800
box. There's a couple of different
kinds. There's a couple kinds, different

629
00:47:10.880 --> 00:47:15.280
kinds of no brainers, Matt.
One no brainer is you get an offer

630
00:47:15.559 --> 00:47:20.800
and you see it and it's you
slam accept. There's that kind of no

631
00:47:20.920 --> 00:47:24.039
brainer. Right. There's the kind
of no brainer that I'm sending to a

632
00:47:24.079 --> 00:47:30.079
guy that I think he's gonna think
it's a no brainer, but really it's

633
00:47:30.079 --> 00:47:34.400
a no brainer to me. Right, That's the kind of trades that I

634
00:47:34.519 --> 00:47:37.559
like to send. My goal here
is to send this guy a no brainer.

635
00:47:38.159 --> 00:47:43.639
He's gonna instantly slam accept, and
I'm gonna feel good about Okay,

636
00:47:44.039 --> 00:47:51.199
So tonight I'm trading Drew Jones for
Victor Barracodoo. These are not I tried

637
00:47:51.239 --> 00:47:54.320
to keep these hypothetical trades and like
what I do these one for one and

638
00:47:54.360 --> 00:47:58.519
then I'm but I'm also gonna get
an extra piece here, and I tried

639
00:47:58.559 --> 00:48:02.079
to keep them similar players. Now, Drewe Jones and Victor Barracotto, I

640
00:48:02.079 --> 00:48:07.199
think are pretty different in some ways. But Bearracoto, my giants B side

641
00:48:07.239 --> 00:48:12.079
selection heading into this year. Was
it this year? Yeah, twenty twenty

642
00:48:12.119 --> 00:48:15.840
three. But man, this guy, I know he gets on some west

643
00:48:15.199 --> 00:48:20.719
but and like I find it interesting, he didn't hit ba's top ten,

644
00:48:21.440 --> 00:48:24.119
so I think I think a lot
of people would slam except on this trade.

645
00:48:24.239 --> 00:48:29.119
But my man, he hit what
I know, we've talked a little

646
00:48:29.119 --> 00:48:32.039
bit about him, but he hit
between High A and Double A last year,

647
00:48:32.119 --> 00:48:37.480
twenty seven home runs. He had
a slug of five thirty three in

648
00:48:37.599 --> 00:48:42.800
High A, four seventy eight in
Double A. Strikeout rate was nineteen point

649
00:48:42.840 --> 00:48:46.119
four percent in High A. In
Double A it jumped a little bit to

650
00:48:46.320 --> 00:48:52.599
twenty six point five percent. But
Matt, there was very much an introductory

651
00:48:52.039 --> 00:48:55.960
period for him at the higher level
and when that ended, so what he

652
00:48:57.039 --> 00:49:00.679
got in fifty one games in Double
A his last forty game, so after

653
00:49:00.719 --> 00:49:06.519
a couple of weeks he slashed two
sixty seven three eleven five twenty seven with

654
00:49:06.679 --> 00:49:09.079
nine home runs, And that's one
hundred and sixty three played appearances. And

655
00:49:09.199 --> 00:49:13.800
mind you, Matt, that those
half of his games. His home stadium

656
00:49:13.880 --> 00:49:16.679
is Richmond, where home runs do
not get hit, and he hit one

657
00:49:16.800 --> 00:49:21.159
there, so the other eight were
on the road kind of makes me wonder

658
00:49:21.559 --> 00:49:24.360
what would that home run Tota look
like if he was in a better home

659
00:49:24.400 --> 00:49:28.679
park. And Cleg, I know, had shared with us some of his

660
00:49:29.440 --> 00:49:34.760
excellent velocity and contact percentage stuff.
Barrakota is on par as far as hitting

661
00:49:34.760 --> 00:49:38.440
the ball hard with a Yanko Fernandez, who I was going to put on

662
00:49:38.480 --> 00:49:43.119
this trade, but I wanted to
use all top one hundred prospects in all

663
00:49:43.159 --> 00:49:46.719
three lists, and Clegg has is
low man there with the he had Yankiole

664
00:49:46.719 --> 00:49:50.719
had one hundred and fifty seven,
so I didn't think that was quite as

665
00:49:50.760 --> 00:49:55.119
stylish of a trade. But I
kind of value those two roughly the same.

666
00:49:55.400 --> 00:50:01.280
So what's the knock on Barrakota's junction? Maybe? I know the contact

667
00:50:01.440 --> 00:50:06.199
percentage stuff that Clegg shared wasn't like
off the charts are great, but it

668
00:50:06.280 --> 00:50:08.559
was fine. I don't think he's
like a real great defender, but I

669
00:50:08.599 --> 00:50:13.400
don't. I don't really know for
certain. There's no speed to his game.

670
00:50:13.519 --> 00:50:15.960
He's still won base last year.
He's not gonna run, so you

671
00:50:15.960 --> 00:50:21.679
know it's a it's a power heavy
profile, and you know those can definitely

672
00:50:21.679 --> 00:50:25.599
be tough. Tough am I sould
that Barracodo is an everyday major leaguer.

673
00:50:25.880 --> 00:50:30.840
No, I'm not going to bet
on that, but at this juncture,

674
00:50:30.039 --> 00:50:35.599
ID of like his chances just as
much as Dru Jones. I was just

675
00:50:35.639 --> 00:50:37.320
gonna say that, you're not gonna
hear any arguments from me. I think

676
00:50:37.480 --> 00:50:42.159
one of my hot takes from earlier
this offseason or maybe late last year,

677
00:50:42.440 --> 00:50:44.719
is after watching Drew Jones, I
was like, I don't think he's going

678
00:50:44.800 --> 00:50:49.079
to make the major leagues, which
is for our top you know five too

679
00:50:49.320 --> 00:50:53.159
prospect in a draft like that's pretty
rare for you to make it, which,

680
00:50:53.280 --> 00:50:58.800
like I had mentioned, uh when
you were talking about Jenkins, like

681
00:50:59.039 --> 00:51:05.000
Jones made the same fall in the
Dynasty world that you might be getting onto

682
00:51:05.119 --> 00:51:07.039
here with Jenkins. But I get
it. But I get an extra piece,

683
00:51:07.280 --> 00:51:10.639
right I can. I can get
an extra piece for Jones. So

684
00:51:12.320 --> 00:51:15.639
I'm not going to get too much
into it, but I'm gonna throw Joey

685
00:51:15.800 --> 00:51:22.639
Estes as my additional piece here.
I'm trading Drew Jones from Victor Barricoto and

686
00:51:22.719 --> 00:51:25.320
Joey Estes and we'll talk in a
year and see what this looks like.

687
00:51:25.679 --> 00:51:30.159
I like it. I like it, you know, tossing in a picture

688
00:51:30.360 --> 00:51:32.960
like that, who is going to
give you major league innings, especially in

689
00:51:32.960 --> 00:51:39.039
a deeper league that likely has value, and especially looking at the rather large

690
00:51:39.159 --> 00:51:44.079
chance, I think that j Jones
never turns into anything. I like this

691
00:51:44.159 --> 00:51:47.039
move. I mean it's it's bold, and especially the giving up the potential

692
00:51:47.039 --> 00:51:52.840
on the steels and if he does
ever figure out his swing, which man,

693
00:51:52.920 --> 00:51:55.840
it's so busted, But if he
does figure it out, it's a

694
00:51:55.840 --> 00:52:00.760
fun profile to to dream on,
especially in leagues where steel are rewarded.

695
00:52:00.840 --> 00:52:02.920
But yeah, I'm with you.
I think Drew dis is a cell.

696
00:52:04.239 --> 00:52:07.880
You think that's fair to say that
I would get an instant accept if I

697
00:52:07.960 --> 00:52:13.159
offered that to somebody, Or I'm
pretty sure with even with Drew Jones really

698
00:52:13.199 --> 00:52:16.760
horrible year and falling down prospect lists, I'm pretty sure you're going to get

699
00:52:16.760 --> 00:52:21.559
an auto accept on that one.
I think folks would slam except the Barracoto's

700
00:52:21.639 --> 00:52:24.440
rastered in six percent of leagues,
and Joey s This is rastered in twelve

701
00:52:24.519 --> 00:52:30.400
percent, And like I mentioned,
Jones and forty two percent. Who you

702
00:52:30.440 --> 00:52:35.039
got? What's your next one?
Well, on this fictional team that I

703
00:52:35.079 --> 00:52:39.800
inherited, I've got a young,
up and coming shortstop with a lot going

704
00:52:39.840 --> 00:52:45.559
for him. Sitting in my minor
leagues, we've got Carson Williams. He

705
00:52:45.760 --> 00:52:52.639
of the plus or or some even
say double plus defensive ability. I think

706
00:52:52.920 --> 00:52:58.280
Eric Longenhagen called him the best fielding
shortstop in the upper miners last year,

707
00:52:58.360 --> 00:53:04.159
so he can really pick it.
And with an opening in Tampa as their

708
00:53:04.280 --> 00:53:13.719
shortstop appears embroiled in quite the gnarly
lel situation in the Dominican and their backup

709
00:53:13.719 --> 00:53:16.559
shortstop from the last couple of years, Taylor Walls is on the shelf with

710
00:53:16.639 --> 00:53:22.920
a back thing. I think so
Carson Williams might get a long look this

711
00:53:22.039 --> 00:53:25.920
spring. And he's been really good
in the minor leagues. Just last year

712
00:53:25.960 --> 00:53:30.519
he ran a one thirty WRC plus
end of the year in double A,

713
00:53:30.000 --> 00:53:37.000
showing plus power, got quite a
bit of speed. There's a lot to

714
00:53:37.079 --> 00:53:40.920
like about Carson Williams, and I
think fantasy analysts have reflected this. According

715
00:53:42.079 --> 00:53:47.800
to our diligent Nate Handy research,
he's ranked twenty two at BA prior to

716
00:53:47.840 --> 00:53:52.559
their update that's just dropping tomorrow.
Our buddy Chris Klegg has him at seventeen

717
00:53:52.760 --> 00:53:59.440
overall on prospects, and MLB pipeline
puts them at nineteen overall. So for

718
00:53:59.480 --> 00:54:02.280
an average of nineteen and he's roster
in forty four percent of league, that's

719
00:54:02.320 --> 00:54:06.639
a lot. I'm worried, though, Nate. I have done some digging

720
00:54:06.800 --> 00:54:12.719
into Carson Williams, and the k
rate really scares me. He ran a

721
00:54:12.760 --> 00:54:15.920
combined k rate of thirty one point
four percent last year, backed by a

722
00:54:16.239 --> 00:54:23.159
wubbalo average thirteen point three percent swinging
strike rate, and seems like he's gotten

723
00:54:23.400 --> 00:54:29.199
a little bit of babbit luck,
some batti ball luck, as well as

724
00:54:29.599 --> 00:54:35.119
some I think concerns about how well
his speed is going to translate as far

725
00:54:35.159 --> 00:54:40.199
as steals go. So I've got
some concerns that this profile is. I

726
00:54:40.239 --> 00:54:44.480
think he's good. Like I'm not
saying that Carson Williams is a bad player.

727
00:54:44.519 --> 00:54:49.719
I think the power that's there seems
pretty real, and unlike some of

728
00:54:49.719 --> 00:54:52.800
the other guys that I'm talking about, he hits flyballs. He hits thirty

729
00:54:52.880 --> 00:54:54.760
nine percent flyballs, which is decent. It's not out of this world or

730
00:54:54.800 --> 00:54:59.000
anything, but it is pretty good, especially for someone who has the kind

731
00:54:59.000 --> 00:55:01.400
of power that he seems to have. I like that, but I'm pretty

732
00:55:01.400 --> 00:55:06.039
worried that the k rate's going to
get to be untenable as he gets to

733
00:55:06.079 --> 00:55:08.480
the major leagues, especially early on
in his career. He's the kind of

734
00:55:08.519 --> 00:55:14.679
guy that seems to me like he
might come up soon because he has such

735
00:55:14.679 --> 00:55:19.119
a good defensive floor for the major
league team, and then feel like a

736
00:55:19.199 --> 00:55:25.320
pretty big bust for fantasy when he's
running a two hundred batting average to seventy

737
00:55:25.559 --> 00:55:30.960
OBP and isn't getting to show off
his wheels on the bases and is popping

738
00:55:30.960 --> 00:55:34.760
a homer or two here and there, but maybe even he's getting platooned in

739
00:55:34.800 --> 00:55:38.199
Tampa and now you're like, oh, I have this really high talent minor

740
00:55:38.280 --> 00:55:44.880
leaguer that is underwhelming for my team. So I'm worried about the shape of

741
00:55:44.920 --> 00:55:49.440
his production, especially for how it's
going to translate when he gets to the

742
00:55:49.480 --> 00:55:54.159
major leagues. And one just little
data point is that Dan Zeborski is rolling

743
00:55:54.159 --> 00:55:59.559
out his ZIPS projections for all of
the major league teams for the upcoming twenty

744
00:55:59.559 --> 00:56:01.760
twenty four season, and he's done
most of them. I think there's like

745
00:56:01.760 --> 00:56:08.079
three or four to go. When
he rolled out the projections for Tampa,

746
00:56:08.119 --> 00:56:12.719
I made special note to look at
this. And you know Carson Williams.

747
00:56:12.760 --> 00:56:15.280
Oh, he did make it up
to triple A last year. I had

748
00:56:15.320 --> 00:56:20.239
forgotten that. But his line projects
next season if he was plopped in the

749
00:56:20.239 --> 00:56:25.480
major leagues for an eighty, that's
zero ops plus. So that's twenty percent

750
00:56:25.559 --> 00:56:30.719
below big league average if he played
next season, which he might write like,

751
00:56:30.840 --> 00:56:35.320
that's sort of the median projection according
to Zips, I think that would

752
00:56:35.360 --> 00:56:38.960
feel like a bus for someone that
is this high, this highly regarded.

753
00:56:39.239 --> 00:56:45.920
So I've got some concerns with Carson
Williams, and so I'm out shopping him,

754
00:56:45.960 --> 00:56:51.400
And just so happens, there's another
shortstop on the East Coast, also

755
00:56:51.480 --> 00:56:57.000
with the last name Williams, who
I think might be my target here to

756
00:56:57.400 --> 00:57:02.079
trade for, and that is Jet
Williams of the New York Metropolitans. Jet

757
00:57:02.519 --> 00:57:09.760
is universally less regarded than Ben Carson. He's I think at forty eight for

758
00:57:09.880 --> 00:57:15.239
Chris Klegg, and I think that's
the high man on Jet. I was

759
00:57:15.280 --> 00:57:21.480
looking at Pipeline. I think pipeline
is even lower on mister Jet Williams.

760
00:57:21.639 --> 00:57:28.800
Part of begets why Jet Williams is
a short king. He's listed at five

761
00:57:29.000 --> 00:57:32.679
six, one seventy five on MLB
pipeline. That's pretty short, and so

762
00:57:32.719 --> 00:57:37.159
they've got him ranked as the seventy
eighth prospect overall over at pipeline. But

763
00:57:37.559 --> 00:57:43.199
Jet Williams, man, did that
guy have a hell of the year last

764
00:57:43.280 --> 00:57:45.079
year. Made it up to double
A at the end of the year,

765
00:57:45.239 --> 00:57:47.679
made it up to double A at
the end of the year, and his

766
00:57:47.840 --> 00:57:54.000
combined line over five hundred and thirty
four plate appearances as most of the season

767
00:57:54.119 --> 00:57:58.239
as a young twenty year old.
I think he was twenty for a good

768
00:57:58.239 --> 00:58:01.920
portion of the season. He's slash
well obp of four to twenty five,

769
00:58:02.239 --> 00:58:07.000
slug of four fifty one on the
year. Jet Williams had an incredible line

770
00:58:07.119 --> 00:58:14.039
for the year, good for a
one forty four point seven WRC plus on

771
00:58:14.440 --> 00:58:19.920
the year as one of the youngest
players in High A and then one of

772
00:58:19.920 --> 00:58:23.039
the youngest players in all of Double
A. On top of that, Jet

773
00:58:23.039 --> 00:58:28.199
Williams is fast. But even more
than that, he is really good at

774
00:58:28.199 --> 00:58:32.119
stealing bases. So Carson Williams fast, plays really good defense, but I

775
00:58:32.159 --> 00:58:37.159
don't think is very good at stealing. Like his his success rate was lower,

776
00:58:37.239 --> 00:58:40.239
he was going less. Jet Williams
steals a lot and is successful a

777
00:58:40.239 --> 00:58:44.920
lot, I think, showing plus
skills on the base paths, which we

778
00:58:44.960 --> 00:58:50.280
should care about in our rot leagues. And while Jet Williams his reported exit

779
00:58:50.320 --> 00:58:54.440
velocities are underwhelming, they're actually well
above what we were talking about with Walker

780
00:58:54.519 --> 00:59:00.039
Jenkins. I think his ninetieth percentile
exit blow is around one oh three,

781
00:59:00.119 --> 00:59:05.679
which is below major league average for
ninetieth percentile, but still in the range.

782
00:59:05.760 --> 00:59:08.480
So it's like, maybe it's a
forty five raw forty five, so

783
00:59:08.639 --> 00:59:13.239
just barely below average, call it
forty even if you want to round down.

784
00:59:13.559 --> 00:59:16.320
But what Jet Williams does really well
is he pulls the ball and he

785
00:59:16.360 --> 00:59:21.400
puts it in the air. His
flyball percentage last year was forty three percent

786
00:59:21.760 --> 00:59:25.639
on the year, which is really
good. Even more, he pulled a

787
00:59:25.679 --> 00:59:29.960
lot of those flyballs, so that's
how he was able to get to as

788
00:59:30.000 --> 00:59:34.360
many homers as he did, even
though folks are giving him twenty present game

789
00:59:34.400 --> 00:59:38.039
power. That's the grade for his
game power on fangrafts. I was really

790
00:59:38.119 --> 00:59:42.880
impressed by what he did. Now
I would be even more in and I

791
00:59:42.880 --> 00:59:46.800
would just do this straight up one
for one if it weren't for the showing

792
00:59:46.840 --> 00:59:51.159
that Jet had in just a very
very short sample at double A, his

793
00:59:51.239 --> 00:59:54.480
ground ball rates skyrocketed. He struck
out over thirty percent of time, and

794
00:59:54.719 --> 00:59:58.519
it was only six games I think
at the end of the year, but

795
00:59:58.840 --> 01:00:02.920
it showed enough that he was like, definitely looked overmatched there. And given

796
01:00:02.960 --> 01:00:07.599
some of the concerns that you should
come in with a smaller guy, maybe

797
01:00:07.599 --> 01:00:09.719
the exebulos aren't there, it should
give you a little bit of pause.

798
01:00:09.920 --> 01:00:15.760
All that said, I am super
into Jet Williams and think that I would

799
01:00:15.840 --> 01:00:21.039
trade Carson Williams for Jet Williams straight
up in most leagues unless the league really

800
01:00:21.119 --> 01:00:25.719
really rewards power I and even then
I might think about it because Carson Williams

801
01:00:25.760 --> 01:00:29.599
hits the ball on the ground a
bit too much for someone who has the

802
01:00:29.679 --> 01:00:32.599
kind of power that he has,
but Jet Williams does not. Jet Williams

803
01:00:32.679 --> 01:00:37.400
gets those fly balls and pulls them. I guess I said that wrong.

804
01:00:37.440 --> 01:00:40.239
Carson Williams does hit flyballs decently,
he just doesn't pull them in the air

805
01:00:40.320 --> 01:00:44.679
quite as much, and so still
on balance, he's going to have the

806
01:00:44.880 --> 01:00:49.639
better power projection, and I'd be
more interested in holding a Carson Williams side

807
01:00:49.760 --> 01:00:52.800
say, in one of these points
leagues that I play in where power is

808
01:00:52.840 --> 01:00:55.760
really really at a premium and we
don't really care that much about K's,

809
01:00:55.960 --> 01:01:01.519
but in any K penalty league,
I might prefer Jet. Any roto league,

810
01:01:01.559 --> 01:01:06.960
I'm almost certainly gonna prefer Jet.
And because of the disparity in rank,

811
01:01:07.079 --> 01:01:09.800
I think you can get a decent
picture thrown in here, and so

812
01:01:10.079 --> 01:01:15.360
talking like, it's not crazy to
ask for Drew Thorpe or a Christian Scott,

813
01:01:15.639 --> 01:01:21.920
somebody that might be more of a
statline darling rather than highly ranked on

814
01:01:22.679 --> 01:01:27.239
a prospect list. So I don't
think it's crazy to ask for Christian Scott

815
01:01:27.280 --> 01:01:31.800
and Jet Williams for Carson Williams and
taking a pair of Mets in that scenario

816
01:01:31.880 --> 01:01:37.000
and shipping off Carson Williams and his
plus glove. I didn't know that you

817
01:01:37.039 --> 01:01:42.199
were a Jet Williams guy, right, Yeah, it's I just follow the

818
01:01:42.719 --> 01:01:45.119
short kings around and I'm just they're
applauding him. I think I've told the

819
01:01:45.559 --> 01:01:51.079
story the story you should have known. I mean six I too, I

820
01:01:51.119 --> 01:01:54.519
had Carson Williams on my short list
here putting some together, I was close

821
01:01:54.599 --> 01:01:59.119
to maybe shipping Carson Williams off too. You know, if we were co

822
01:01:59.480 --> 01:02:04.159
managing this team, I'd call you
up and we'd have a long talk about

823
01:02:04.280 --> 01:02:08.360
whether or not we should target mcconnagall
in this trade instead of Jet Williams.

824
01:02:08.679 --> 01:02:14.079
But maybe that's a discussion for another
time. But another short king, So

825
01:02:14.119 --> 01:02:17.039
there's there's that I could try to
sell you. But I trust that bat

826
01:02:17.039 --> 01:02:21.480
I think a little bit more than
mister Williams. But that's that's neither here

827
01:02:21.519 --> 01:02:23.239
nor there. That's a good one
that I mean On that one. I

828
01:02:24.000 --> 01:02:30.320
well, maybe perhaps another shorter guy
here. But luis anhell Acunya. He

829
01:02:30.599 --> 01:02:37.119
was ba's fifty sixth cleg's fifty fourth
and Pipeline's thirty eighth ranked prospect just the

830
01:02:37.199 --> 01:02:44.480
average of forty nine so considered a
top fifty consensus on the public list rostered

831
01:02:44.519 --> 01:02:49.800
in forty nine percent of fan tracks
leagues. Now, I have long been

832
01:02:49.920 --> 01:02:52.920
skeptical of Acunya here, and again, like I mentioned prior this sort of

833
01:02:53.000 --> 01:02:59.840
range, you're kind of saying that
he's probably an everyday major leader or close

834
01:02:59.840 --> 01:03:04.840
to two. And I cannot get
on that train. Tell me why,

835
01:03:05.119 --> 01:03:09.159
Well, One, he's not very
good defensively, from what I have seen,

836
01:03:09.559 --> 01:03:14.559
he might be a fine second basement, But I think to earn a

837
01:03:14.599 --> 01:03:17.960
major league everyday roll, the bat
will have to warrant that. And I

838
01:03:19.000 --> 01:03:22.599
don't know, man, I think
that a lot of the value here might

839
01:03:22.639 --> 01:03:28.000
be put on speed. Let's see, he slashed two ninety four three point

840
01:03:28.000 --> 01:03:32.039
fifty nine, slugged four to ten
in five hundred and sixty nine double a

841
01:03:32.400 --> 01:03:37.840
played appearances, most of which were
in the Texas League. And when he

842
01:03:37.000 --> 01:03:40.519
was traded to the Mets, look
at us talking about all these Mets in

843
01:03:40.559 --> 01:03:46.599
the Eastern League thirty four games he
did not perform nearly as well, slugged

844
01:03:46.639 --> 01:03:52.039
to three h four there. Now, when guys get traded in new environs

845
01:03:52.079 --> 01:03:54.840
and all of that stuff, I'm
definitely giving them the benefit of the doubt

846
01:03:54.880 --> 01:03:59.880
here. But you know, he's
doesn't strike out too much eighteen point six

847
01:04:00.199 --> 01:04:02.800
k percentage, walks nine point one
percent of the time. I do find

848
01:04:02.840 --> 01:04:09.280
him to be more on the aggressive
side, I think when I've watched him,

849
01:04:09.280 --> 01:04:12.159
and I like that. But that
was good for a one oh seven

850
01:04:12.559 --> 01:04:15.400
w RC plus, so a little
what that's supposed to be a little bit

851
01:04:15.400 --> 01:04:18.719
better than the league average, right, Matt, is that how that works?

852
01:04:18.760 --> 01:04:24.360
Seven percent? In fact? Yeah, Now he stole fifty seven bases,

853
01:04:24.440 --> 01:04:30.159
though, but I am skeptical that
that translates into super gaudy major league

854
01:04:30.480 --> 01:04:35.440
stolen bases because I don't think he
is like a burner. I think he's

855
01:04:36.000 --> 01:04:41.320
speedy, quick, and a good
base runner, which is nice. You

856
01:04:41.320 --> 01:04:43.880
know that's that's not a knock,
but I kind of feel like that's a

857
01:04:43.880 --> 01:04:48.039
big part of his fantasy hope here, and I'm not quite social sold on

858
01:04:48.119 --> 01:04:53.400
that, particularly, like you can't
steal a lot of bases if you ain't

859
01:04:53.440 --> 01:04:57.440
playing, and I wonder what the
future holds there in New York in the

860
01:04:57.480 --> 01:05:00.159
middle infield. So I don't like
hate a Kunya. I think he's a

861
01:05:00.199 --> 01:05:05.039
fine prospect, But there's a short
stop the same age, who was in

862
01:05:05.119 --> 01:05:10.840
the same league until he got promoted
to Triple A, who is good defensively,

863
01:05:11.239 --> 01:05:14.480
who's bat I think I trust just
a little bit more. Now.

864
01:05:14.480 --> 01:05:17.599
I'm not sold that he is a
major league every day, but he's in

865
01:05:17.639 --> 01:05:24.599
an organization where he might get a
chance fairly soon. And that's former twenty

866
01:05:24.679 --> 01:05:30.800
twenty two Orioles b side bat selection
Darryl Hernez, who does get a little

867
01:05:30.800 --> 01:05:35.360
bit of love on some list.
Clegg has them at two thirty three.

868
01:05:35.440 --> 01:05:41.760
He is rostered in thirty one percent
of leagues, so just eighteen percent less

869
01:05:41.840 --> 01:05:45.119
leagues than Akunya, and I would
dare say I would trade these two one

870
01:05:45.199 --> 01:05:49.880
for one, but of course I
could get more perhaps, But I imagine

871
01:05:49.880 --> 01:05:55.280
whoever has Hernes is probably a big
fan, or relatively speaking, a big

872
01:05:55.320 --> 01:05:58.480
fan. But Herne is in Double
A, the same league that Acunya was

873
01:05:58.519 --> 01:06:02.519
in. He slashed eight three ninety
three four eighty six. They both hit

874
01:06:02.599 --> 01:06:06.199
nine home runs on the season and
roughly the same amount of played appearances.

875
01:06:06.320 --> 01:06:11.400
Herne has had two hundred and fifty
three played appearances in Triple A, Triple

876
01:06:11.480 --> 01:06:14.519
A, which you know is the
PCL. Right, you should see some

877
01:06:14.559 --> 01:06:18.719
sort of boost. But like he
didn't slug a ton, it'slugged four eighteen,

878
01:06:19.280 --> 01:06:26.280
hit three hundred three seventy six on
base percentage strikeout percentage less than Akunya

879
01:06:26.440 --> 01:06:30.760
fifteen point six in Double A ten
point seven percent in Triple A. I

880
01:06:30.800 --> 01:06:34.639
think he too is a fairly aggressive
hitter, and I have a bit more

881
01:06:34.760 --> 01:06:40.519
hope in home run production with her
NAEs than I do Acunya. Just from

882
01:06:40.599 --> 01:06:43.800
watching him for the last couple of
years now, I think he does a

883
01:06:43.800 --> 01:06:47.199
pretty good job of maintaining being aggressive
but not being out of control, even

884
01:06:47.239 --> 01:06:51.199
though he does swing pretty hard sometimes. But yeah, I would feel just

885
01:06:51.280 --> 01:06:56.239
as good in a potential everyday short
step. Well, I don't think acun

886
01:06:56.400 --> 01:07:00.639
is a short stop but middle infielder
with hernees as I do. And so

887
01:07:00.199 --> 01:07:03.159
I'm not going to ask for too
much here, Matt, as my second

888
01:07:03.239 --> 01:07:08.400
piece. Matter of fact, this
guy isn't gonna be up for trade because

889
01:07:08.559 --> 01:07:12.599
literally no one rosters him on fan
tracks because he's not created yet. Maybe

890
01:07:12.639 --> 01:07:15.199
I got to pick him up,
maybe I gotta get him created or whatever.

891
01:07:15.280 --> 01:07:19.280
But I'm going to add my Pirates
B side arm Alessandro Erkolini. M

892
01:07:19.800 --> 01:07:27.639
okay, interesting slider to my application
here. And I feel pretty Dane decent

893
01:07:27.679 --> 01:07:30.440
about this one, Matt. I
feel like in a year, if any

894
01:07:30.480 --> 01:07:34.199
of the three I feel the most
confident in, then I'm going to present

895
01:07:34.239 --> 01:07:41.800
tonight here it's this one. This
one I feel least confident about. I

896
01:07:41.800 --> 01:07:45.239
think of the ones we've talked about
so far, my issue with herne is

897
01:07:46.000 --> 01:07:48.880
don't get me wrong, like I
said, I'm going for some style points

898
01:07:48.880 --> 01:07:54.599
here too, Like I feel like
I could probably get some more trade return

899
01:07:54.719 --> 01:07:59.000
off of this bone, but I
think you probably could. I think that

900
01:07:59.280 --> 01:08:03.360
two things for me in this one
is that while I agree with you that

901
01:08:03.440 --> 01:08:08.119
Acunya is, I don't think a
burner necessarily. I think he's got,

902
01:08:08.440 --> 01:08:14.199
like Ronald, a real penchant for
stealing bases. So even though Acunya is

903
01:08:14.239 --> 01:08:16.720
not a top of the scale runner, he's the top of the scale base

904
01:08:16.760 --> 01:08:21.079
stealer because he's really aggressive and is
quite successful. That's the vibe that I

905
01:08:21.119 --> 01:08:26.479
get from Luis on Hell as well, and that in fantasy leagues if he

906
01:08:26.520 --> 01:08:30.560
does get regular playing time at second
or maybe he shifts the left field at

907
01:08:30.560 --> 01:08:32.800
some point or I don't know,
I think he's going to be a pretty

908
01:08:32.800 --> 01:08:38.560
decent base dealer. So for me, that helps with the floor for the

909
01:08:39.079 --> 01:08:43.680
production. And while I hear you
on Herne's like hits the ball pretty hard

910
01:08:43.800 --> 01:08:48.159
and has I think quite good contact
skills, he also just hits everything on

911
01:08:48.199 --> 01:08:51.680
the ground, so I think that's
going to limit his upside. You know,

912
01:08:51.720 --> 01:08:56.680
he's almost at fifty percent ground ball
rate. Her NAEs is and well,

913
01:08:57.640 --> 01:09:00.600
Acunya is at forty eight point five
percent. Hernas was at forty five

914
01:09:00.640 --> 01:09:05.279
point four percent in the same league. Yeah, that's true, But I

915
01:09:05.279 --> 01:09:10.520
think that with like you'r you got
to do something better because he's not going

916
01:09:10.560 --> 01:09:14.680
to steal more bases, right,
so you would want to see like a

917
01:09:14.720 --> 01:09:16.920
lot more home runs. I just
don't think that's part of Herne's game,

918
01:09:17.039 --> 01:09:20.239
is I guess what I'm saying.
Yeah, perhaps, but I'm going to

919
01:09:20.319 --> 01:09:27.000
bet on I'm gonna take a leaning
bet here on Hernae's glove and good enough

920
01:09:27.079 --> 01:09:31.239
bat more so than Akunya's if he
if you can hit enough to get on

921
01:09:31.279 --> 01:09:36.119
the field and stick with the poor
glove and steal you your bases. Yeah,

922
01:09:36.199 --> 01:09:40.319
And and this, I think what
I'm saying here is not that it's

923
01:09:40.920 --> 01:09:43.439
a bad bet. It's when it's
an interesting one. But I think you

924
01:09:43.439 --> 01:09:46.960
could ask for an even more interesting
arm other than a guy that you just

925
01:09:47.000 --> 01:09:49.920
had to create. And I agree, you know, I agree, Like

926
01:09:49.920 --> 01:09:53.520
that's what I'm saying. It's like, I think there's a bigger gap here

927
01:09:53.800 --> 01:09:59.399
than even your you're implying with asking
for Erklani. Yeah, I don't disagree

928
01:09:59.439 --> 01:10:01.880
with that, but I'm trying to
I'm trying to walk on the wild side

929
01:10:01.920 --> 01:10:05.840
here. I like I hit on
one of these, look good in the

930
01:10:05.880 --> 01:10:10.680
committee's eyes, but I like my
chances to hit two out of three here.

931
01:10:10.920 --> 01:10:15.840
But who knows. I'll do sort
of an honorable mention one here.

932
01:10:15.279 --> 01:10:21.720
It doesn't technically qualify for this because
Pipeline actually has them in rank order or

933
01:10:21.760 --> 01:10:27.680
at least sort of close that I
would do. But I was gonna sub

934
01:10:28.039 --> 01:10:32.439
submit that I inherited Kyle Teal,
and I was going to trade Kyle Teal

935
01:10:32.640 --> 01:10:38.640
away because some folks I think,
I think BA has him pretty highly ranked

936
01:10:38.640 --> 01:10:42.800
as well. I know Clegg does
too, but Pipeline has Teal at eighty

937
01:10:42.800 --> 01:10:45.680
two, and I was going to
try and trade Teal and his helium from

938
01:10:45.720 --> 01:10:51.920
his really incredible pro debut for Dalton
Rushing, someone who have an even more

939
01:10:53.119 --> 01:10:57.800
incredible pro debut last year but seems
to have fallen a bit out of favor

940
01:10:58.079 --> 01:11:01.600
and people aren't quite as high I
think, but I still think they should

941
01:11:01.640 --> 01:11:05.279
be. But anyway, only Pipeline
still has Rushing like forty spots ahead,

942
01:11:05.279 --> 01:11:11.600
so it probably doesn't fit our profile
here. So I'm going to hold on

943
01:11:12.199 --> 01:11:15.079
that one and really go down that
route, although just to say that,

944
01:11:15.159 --> 01:11:18.880
I think that Dalton Rushing is going
to be a very very good hitter,

945
01:11:19.000 --> 01:11:24.159
especially in points leagues. I think
he's going to get walks and power and

946
01:11:24.279 --> 01:11:27.279
maybe the Dodgers will eventually plan them. I don't know, or we'll get

947
01:11:27.279 --> 01:11:30.760
traded out somewhere. But I think
he's very good. And I worry about

948
01:11:30.920 --> 01:11:35.479
Kyle Teel's production, largely semming from
an unsustainably high line drive rate. I

949
01:11:35.640 --> 01:11:40.159
worry about the rest of the shape
of his production, although he seems like

950
01:11:40.159 --> 01:11:43.920
a plus glove, so maybe he's
just going to win that on the back

951
01:11:43.960 --> 01:11:46.920
of getting more played appearance. But
why did Russian? He seemed like a

952
01:11:47.039 --> 01:11:51.560
very popular name, lots of talk
about him last year. How come folks

953
01:11:51.600 --> 01:11:56.800
went quiet on him? What happened? So I'm not sure. One thing

954
01:11:57.279 --> 01:12:01.119
might have been that he was,
you know, so the fortieth overall pick

955
01:12:01.439 --> 01:12:06.760
didn't have a ton of collegiate track
records, So I think that there was

956
01:12:06.800 --> 01:12:12.319
like the fact that he hit the
ground running so much last year. I

957
01:12:12.359 --> 01:12:15.079
think that there was like maybe people
were like, oh, this is a

958
01:12:15.079 --> 01:12:17.600
flash in the pan, even this
is too good to be true, because

959
01:12:17.680 --> 01:12:21.520
I mean it was obviously he ran
a two twenty four WRC plus over one

960
01:12:21.560 --> 01:12:26.760
hundred and twenty eight plate appearances.
Like that's an insane debut. But it's

961
01:12:26.760 --> 01:12:30.159
not like this year was bad.
He was at high all year, hit

962
01:12:30.239 --> 01:12:34.920
fifteen homers, walked even more almost
nineteen percent of the time, kept his

963
01:12:34.960 --> 01:12:38.399
strikeout rate, you know, a
striker was maybe a touch high, but

964
01:12:38.479 --> 01:12:43.600
still showed good power, but had
a low babbit So his two seventy six

965
01:12:43.680 --> 01:12:45.720
babbit led to a two twenty eight
average, so maybe that was part of

966
01:12:45.760 --> 01:12:49.359
it. Still good for a one
forty six WRC plus. I just think

967
01:12:49.439 --> 01:12:55.079
that he's showing some of the skills
that I really value in a hitter.

968
01:12:55.399 --> 01:12:59.000
That he takes a walk and if
you have power, use it, and

969
01:12:59.039 --> 01:13:01.760
I think he does. He gets
to that pull fly balls that I really

970
01:13:01.800 --> 01:13:05.479
like. So I think for me, like Rushing seems like a guy that

971
01:13:05.680 --> 01:13:11.600
is going to be a very very
good power hitting catcher at the major league

972
01:13:11.680 --> 01:13:15.760
level. And Teal, I think
succeeded in his debut by getting a bit

973
01:13:15.840 --> 01:13:18.039
lucky, like hitting a tonnel line
drives and that's just not a thing that

974
01:13:18.159 --> 01:13:23.239
is sustainable. So that for me
is more like just highlighting the difference in

975
01:13:23.600 --> 01:13:27.840
their debuts, and it's just interesting
that like Brushing's debut was way better than

976
01:13:27.960 --> 01:13:33.720
Teal's, and I wonder if the
plus defensive reputation from Teal is helping bolster

977
01:13:33.880 --> 01:13:39.920
the overall profile for Teal. But
anyway, this one might be a straw

978
01:13:39.960 --> 01:13:44.000
man that there's already a divergence of
opinion on, so you need to go

979
01:13:44.039 --> 01:13:49.039
down that. Let's well, we're
at Catchers, my last one here.

980
01:13:50.359 --> 01:13:54.640
Okay, you know, Matt,
we're not going to get out of this

981
01:13:54.680 --> 01:14:00.039
one without me trading away and there
in there. But Harry Ford, he

982
01:14:00.359 --> 01:14:04.279
has him, had him sixty first
cleg, forty second, pipeline, thirty

983
01:14:04.359 --> 01:14:09.880
ninth for an average rank of forty
seven. He has rostered in thirty nine

984
01:14:10.199 --> 01:14:15.600
percent of fan tracks leagues. Now, he's a little bit different than the

985
01:14:15.680 --> 01:14:20.279
other two guys that I'm trading away
in that I don't particularly dislike Harry Ford

986
01:14:20.600 --> 01:14:26.800
or there's not like these big like
red flags or to me or what have

987
01:14:26.880 --> 01:14:30.960
you. I just think he's just
kind of overrated in a generic sense.

988
01:14:30.199 --> 01:14:33.880
Last year in Hie spent the whole
season in hi a right five hundred and

989
01:14:33.880 --> 01:14:39.079
sixty three played appearances. He had
fifteen home runs. He stole twenty four

990
01:14:39.119 --> 01:14:43.439
bases, which, hey, for
a catcher or maybe a catcher, that's

991
01:14:43.520 --> 01:14:46.800
nice to see. He slashed two
fifty seven four to ten, slugged four

992
01:14:47.000 --> 01:14:51.319
thirty with an ISO of one seventy
three, babbit of three h seven.

993
01:14:51.680 --> 01:14:57.239
He struck out nineteen point four percent
of the time. He walked eighteen point

994
01:14:57.279 --> 01:15:00.680
three percent of the time. Bad
at ball profile. There. There's nice

995
01:15:00.720 --> 01:15:03.279
stuff in here, no doubt,
but like I said, I'm not totally

996
01:15:03.359 --> 01:15:09.880
sold that he's an everyday major leaguer
at this juncture, not a guy that

997
01:15:09.920 --> 01:15:13.239
I want to put top forty to
fifty sort of bet on. And there's

998
01:15:13.279 --> 01:15:17.159
a catcher that I happen to like
quite a bit that I think is maybe

999
01:15:17.199 --> 01:15:23.199
not grossly underrated, but I don't
think gets the attention, especially considering his

1000
01:15:23.319 --> 01:15:27.199
proximity that he deserves. And so
I'm going to swap Harry Ford for a

1001
01:15:27.319 --> 01:15:32.520
very modest catching prospect here, Ivan
Herrera, who has had a little major

1002
01:15:32.600 --> 01:15:38.960
league run the last two seasons.
Cardinals catching situation is interesting at this point,

1003
01:15:39.239 --> 01:15:42.680
would not be surprised. My hope
here with this trade is that when

1004
01:15:42.720 --> 01:15:46.199
I get rid of my exciting young
catcher here that I'm gonna dream scenario would

1005
01:15:46.199 --> 01:15:48.560
be I'm looking up at the end
of the season and I got the Cardinals

1006
01:15:48.600 --> 01:15:54.840
everyday catcher who might not wow you
offensively, but I think he's a very

1007
01:15:54.880 --> 01:15:58.800
good contact hitter. Hits the ball
the other way a lot, probably too

1008
01:15:58.920 --> 01:16:02.359
much. He doesn't get into the
power that I think is there ten home

1009
01:16:02.439 --> 01:16:05.720
runs last year in Triple A and
three hundred and seventy five played appearances.

1010
01:16:05.880 --> 01:16:11.119
Now, even though he grades out
really poorly for speed, from what I've

1011
01:16:11.159 --> 01:16:15.640
seen, I think he's a little
bit more athletic and quick than he's given

1012
01:16:15.720 --> 01:16:19.720
credit for. Now that this is
a guy that's going to add stolen bases

1013
01:16:19.960 --> 01:16:23.880
like Harry fordnite, but he might
be able to chip in a few.

1014
01:16:24.039 --> 01:16:28.399
He slashed two ninety seven four point
fifty one and slept five hundred in Triple

1015
01:16:28.439 --> 01:16:31.199
A. Of course, that's a
well the International League Memphis, that's not

1016
01:16:31.359 --> 01:16:36.079
it's not the PCL was ISO of
two oh three. Defensively, I don't

1017
01:16:36.119 --> 01:16:41.720
think he's super great, at least
from what they say. From what I've

1018
01:16:41.760 --> 01:16:45.079
watched, she seemed fine, seems
decent. Maybe he's got a good arm,

1019
01:16:45.319 --> 01:16:48.800
or good enough arm, but I
think kind of a sneaky play here

1020
01:16:49.039 --> 01:16:55.239
for some proximity and a guy who's
might get you some nice ratios as a

1021
01:16:55.279 --> 01:16:58.960
major leaguer, but that is not
the meat of my return here. I

1022
01:16:59.000 --> 01:17:02.319
feel like with that's offer, I
can ask for more on the pitching side.

1023
01:17:02.359 --> 01:17:05.399
So that's what I'm gonna do.
I'm gonna get a guy that I've

1024
01:17:05.399 --> 01:17:10.359
talked about enough, Cayden Dana.
With that, so Harry Ford, Ivan

1025
01:17:10.439 --> 01:17:14.439
Herrera, Cayden Dana. He's rostered
in twenty percent of leagues, where Herrera

1026
01:17:14.479 --> 01:17:16.600
is six percent of leagues. But
I like him, you know, talk

1027
01:17:16.640 --> 01:17:20.279
about potential arms that are outside of
the top one hundred that could be there

1028
01:17:20.399 --> 01:17:23.920
at the end of next year.
Kind of like that. I like that

1029
01:17:24.000 --> 01:17:26.880
bet a little bit. He's he's
very young, and he's proven himself a

1030
01:17:26.920 --> 01:17:30.239
little bit in the uppers already.
I wrote that piece where I watched a

1031
01:17:30.239 --> 01:17:32.760
lot of his his outings, and
I know what I'm getting into. I

1032
01:17:32.800 --> 01:17:38.960
think he's maybe just like one or
getting a little more polish on one more

1033
01:17:39.000 --> 01:17:43.279
offering from maybe being a big time
pitching prospect. And we know that he's

1034
01:17:43.600 --> 01:17:47.560
shown some horsepower which could be dangerous. Who knows how the arm holds up

1035
01:17:47.560 --> 01:17:51.520
and all that. But uh,
I feel good about this, this trade

1036
01:17:51.680 --> 01:17:57.399
being a maybe sneaky good a year
from now, all right, I actually

1037
01:17:57.479 --> 01:18:02.439
quite like this fun for you,
but both being aggressive on the arm ask

1038
01:18:02.560 --> 01:18:06.359
because I think there's a pretty big
perceived gap in there, and I also

1039
01:18:06.640 --> 01:18:11.479
like Herrera. I think that's a
really sneaky buy in a deeper league,

1040
01:18:11.920 --> 01:18:15.399
especially given I think the legitimate concerns
about is Harry Ford going to be a

1041
01:18:15.439 --> 01:18:18.880
catcher at the major league level.
I think that showed at the WBC that

1042
01:18:19.000 --> 01:18:23.359
he's not ready I think right now. And I watched a fair bit of

1043
01:18:23.399 --> 01:18:26.960
him in Hia this year, and
I don't think he's a great defensive catcher,

1044
01:18:27.159 --> 01:18:30.359
really good athlete, but I think
struggles with receiving a bit, and

1045
01:18:30.600 --> 01:18:34.960
that's super important to a lot of
teams. So I think he's a candidate,

1046
01:18:35.039 --> 01:18:38.760
and they've talked about this a bit. I think moving him off catcher

1047
01:18:38.960 --> 01:18:41.920
at some point, but they're going
to keep developing him as one for now.

1048
01:18:42.039 --> 01:18:44.840
I think the other sneaky thing about
Harry Ford, I'm a little worried

1049
01:18:44.880 --> 01:18:46.920
about his power. You know,
he hit fifteen homers this year, but

1050
01:18:47.039 --> 01:18:51.079
he did so at Everett, which
is one of the tiniest ballparks in all

1051
01:18:51.159 --> 01:18:55.960
the land, and it's pretty easy
to hit homers there. And I,

1052
01:18:56.439 --> 01:19:00.640
yeah, also just think that there
aren't great exit vilas behind it. The

1053
01:19:00.680 --> 01:19:03.399
shape of his production is still interesting. I just don't think you should expect

1054
01:19:03.439 --> 01:19:08.840
a Cal Rowley kind of like big
time power bat or even a peak GT.

1055
01:19:09.000 --> 01:19:11.840
Real Muto, which I've heard people
throw around, because he's got the

1056
01:19:11.880 --> 01:19:15.239
speed there as well. So I
think with Harry Ford, if he's a

1057
01:19:15.319 --> 01:19:21.520
left fielder or a right fielder and
is hitting fifteen homers a year with fifteen

1058
01:19:21.560 --> 01:19:25.960
steals, like that's still a decent
player, but it's not sort of a

1059
01:19:26.000 --> 01:19:30.760
cornerstone franchise catcher, and that's what
you might be worried about on the downside.

1060
01:19:30.840 --> 01:19:33.079
So and Herrera seems like a lock
to sicket catcher and did have a

1061
01:19:33.119 --> 01:19:38.279
sneaky good year. He's had a
couple of sneaky good years. Yeah,

1062
01:19:39.800 --> 01:19:42.479
I like that. I like that
as a target. He kind of fits

1063
01:19:42.560 --> 01:19:45.920
these profiles that I'm a little bit
drawn to, maybe too much, but

1064
01:19:46.079 --> 01:19:50.239
like a Jordan Diaz at the plate
right where yeah, there's a lot of

1065
01:19:50.319 --> 01:19:55.279
hitting the ball deep on him,
A lot of opposite field stuff, a

1066
01:19:55.359 --> 01:19:59.760
lot of line drives, but yet
there still is the ability to pull the

1067
01:19:59.800 --> 01:20:02.680
ball, and it's monsters. I
don't know if that's what those guys will

1068
01:20:02.760 --> 01:20:08.600
end up being before a young hitter. I kind of like that as maybe

1069
01:20:08.600 --> 01:20:13.000
a potential starting point, So we'll
see. But I don't chipping off Harry

1070
01:20:13.039 --> 01:20:16.439
Ford for potential everyday catcher and a
pitching prospect that I really like. I

1071
01:20:16.560 --> 01:20:19.319
feel okay about that, And I
also think that you could probably get a

1072
01:20:19.319 --> 01:20:21.960
lot more for Harry Ford than that. But trying to look good, at

1073
01:20:23.039 --> 01:20:26.960
least you asked for, like a
real created arm. That's good. You're

1074
01:20:27.039 --> 01:20:29.920
learning, you know, yes,
yes for more. Yeah, yeah,

1075
01:20:30.079 --> 01:20:33.319
he's actually on somebody's roster, right. The worse you can do is somebody

1076
01:20:33.319 --> 01:20:40.600
will tell you no, okay,
my last real one here, last one

1077
01:20:40.600 --> 01:20:44.399
that I sort of fleshed out again. I tease this a little bit in

1078
01:20:44.520 --> 01:20:49.439
the Dynasty dugout discord. I've inherited
Brady House on this team. Top pick

1079
01:20:49.880 --> 01:20:58.079
Stallion six for tooled out toolshed monster. I've heard all these things describing Brady

1080
01:20:58.119 --> 01:21:04.279
House, and I gotta say,
I like my tooled out toolshed monsters to

1081
01:21:04.399 --> 01:21:12.199
actually show their tools for someone that
has you know, quote unquote plus to

1082
01:21:12.399 --> 01:21:16.920
double plus power, he's really not
shown that so far. Some of this

1083
01:21:17.640 --> 01:21:24.399
is probably injury related, He's battled
injuries throughout his career, but I think

1084
01:21:24.479 --> 01:21:28.079
more of it is his swing.
I think the power is there, but

1085
01:21:28.119 --> 01:21:32.880
I think the way he swings limits
that upside. And even though he's ranked

1086
01:21:33.199 --> 01:21:40.439
in the forties, I think by
MLB Pipeline Yeah at forty by MLB Pipeline

1087
01:21:40.840 --> 01:21:45.399
sixty two by Chris Klagg, I'm
not a fan here. I think this

1088
01:21:45.479 --> 01:21:50.720
is a cell high candidate for me
for a few reasons. So I did

1089
01:21:50.760 --> 01:21:55.560
write about this a while ago.
I think this might have been in my

1090
01:21:55.680 --> 01:22:00.079
piece where I analyze just way to
Paula's swing as well. But he he

1091
01:22:00.119 --> 01:22:03.840
has some of the same markers that
justswait Apaula does, and that he seems

1092
01:22:03.880 --> 01:22:09.359
like he's going for more contact than
he should, like he sort of swings

1093
01:22:09.560 --> 01:22:14.680
around his body and more so than
Depaula, Like he swings really fast,

1094
01:22:14.800 --> 01:22:16.960
like his hands are moving fast.
And I think his exit Bilo's back that

1095
01:22:17.119 --> 01:22:20.119
up. Even as a nineteen twenty
year old, I think he was getting

1096
01:22:20.239 --> 01:22:25.239
way up there. I think I've
seen his exit vilas reported at ninetieth percentiles

1097
01:22:25.279 --> 01:22:29.079
at one oh seven, which is
comfortably plus. But he hits so many

1098
01:22:29.079 --> 01:22:32.119
of them on the ground, both
because of his pitch selection, like seeing

1099
01:22:32.159 --> 01:22:35.560
him chase sliders below the zone and
pull them, make contact on them,

1100
01:22:35.600 --> 01:22:41.760
but pull them, or with on
fastballs up and away, because again the

1101
01:22:41.920 --> 01:22:47.439
rotational nature of his swing, he's
almost turning too fast rather than like what

1102
01:22:47.520 --> 01:22:53.399
great hitters do, which is use
their rotational force, turn really fast and

1103
01:22:53.399 --> 01:22:57.600
then use that to extend their hands
through the hitting zone. What it looks

1104
01:22:57.640 --> 01:23:01.600
to me like his house just keeps
turning really fast. So when he gets

1105
01:23:01.880 --> 01:23:04.359
the barrel on the ball, he
might hit it really hard, but that

1106
01:23:04.479 --> 01:23:09.600
leads to a quote unquote kind of
flat around the ball swing, which gives

1107
01:23:09.600 --> 01:23:13.760
a lot of ground balls. And
that is true to his profile. He

1108
01:23:14.319 --> 01:23:17.439
hits the ball on the ground quite
a lot, especially for somebody that has

1109
01:23:17.640 --> 01:23:23.800
like plus game power. You want
to see more flyballs than he's hitting.

1110
01:23:23.960 --> 01:23:29.000
He's hits forty five percent of the
balls on the ground last year and only

1111
01:23:29.039 --> 01:23:31.960
thirty one percent flyballs. And that's
not as egregious as some of the guys

1112
01:23:31.960 --> 01:23:38.479
that we've talked about for but for
somebody who's really only calling card is his

1113
01:23:38.640 --> 01:23:41.399
power, Like, he's not going
to be a plus hit tool guy.

1114
01:23:41.920 --> 01:23:45.279
He doesn't walk. I mean,
he ran a full season walk rate like

1115
01:23:45.680 --> 01:23:47.640
under five percent, or I guess
it was seven percent last year, buoyed

1116
01:23:47.720 --> 01:23:51.399
by his A ball performance, but
it was four point four percent at high

1117
01:23:51.439 --> 01:23:56.039
and four point seven percent at double
A in decent stints at both spots.

1118
01:23:56.600 --> 01:24:00.640
He's not going to be a plus
approach guy. And he's not a plus

1119
01:24:00.680 --> 01:24:03.840
speed guy either. You know,
nine steals on the year last year,

1120
01:24:03.880 --> 01:24:09.279
and I think that's likely to be
his ceiling maybe, So he's not a

1121
01:24:09.319 --> 01:24:15.000
shortstop. He's a third baseman power
only probably some K concerns like twenty eight

1122
01:24:15.039 --> 01:24:18.079
percent at double A last year.
It was okay at high A at nineteen

1123
01:24:18.159 --> 01:24:23.359
percent and okay at A ball at
twenty one point five percent. But I

1124
01:24:23.399 --> 01:24:27.279
want to see the power production from
a big time power bat, and I

1125
01:24:27.319 --> 01:24:30.760
think both the shape of his swing
and his pinch it for hitting the ball

1126
01:24:30.800 --> 01:24:36.479
on the ground worries me enough that
I'm going to try and sell him for

1127
01:24:36.720 --> 01:24:42.079
a guy that, to Chris Clegg's
credit, is ranked right behind him on

1128
01:24:42.359 --> 01:24:47.720
his top one hundred and that's Brian
Ramos from your Chicago White Sox. He's

1129
01:24:48.439 --> 01:24:56.399
easy there. Clegg has ranked Ramos
quite aggressively this year, but he's a

1130
01:24:56.399 --> 01:25:00.199
guy Ramos in that I was kind
of clamoring for a bit even last year

1131
01:25:00.239 --> 01:25:05.960
that I thought he was under ranked
and underappreciated, and while having guys back

1132
01:25:05.960 --> 01:25:10.319
to back like they're interchangeable, and
even Chris would say this, it's splitting

1133
01:25:10.359 --> 01:25:14.960
hairs within the tiers, but I
think that that isn't a widely held belief.

1134
01:25:15.000 --> 01:25:20.159
And everywhere else I've seen has House
way ahead, Pipeline has House at

1135
01:25:20.279 --> 01:25:24.840
what I say, forty, and
Ramos isn't in their top one hundred.

1136
01:25:24.920 --> 01:25:27.840
I'm not sure where Ramos is on
ba's top one hundred, but he might

1137
01:25:27.880 --> 01:25:31.000
not be on it, and I
think Brady House is still. So this

1138
01:25:31.079 --> 01:25:35.880
is a swap that I'm comfortable making
for a couple of reasons. Ramos has

1139
01:25:35.960 --> 01:25:43.199
hit in Pitcher's parks for most of
his career, and as such, his

1140
01:25:43.960 --> 01:25:48.279
like top line production sort of looks
a little underwhelming. Ramos also has had

1141
01:25:48.319 --> 01:25:51.960
some injury concerns, especially this year. He started late and I think took

1142
01:25:53.000 --> 01:25:56.439
a little bit to get going and
you know, he only hit fourteen homers

1143
01:25:56.439 --> 01:25:59.960
this year, barely more than Brady
House, but his exivulos were good.

1144
01:26:00.279 --> 01:26:05.439
They were almost as high as Brady
Houses, who's lotted for double plus power

1145
01:26:05.640 --> 01:26:10.079
and ramos. People don't talk about
this that much, but I think he

1146
01:26:10.159 --> 01:26:14.600
has comfortably plus raw power and more
than that, he's going to get to

1147
01:26:14.680 --> 01:26:18.399
it because Da Da he hits fly
balls. He hit fly balls at a

1148
01:26:18.600 --> 01:26:25.319
forty almost forty three percent rate this
year at double A and I and and

1149
01:26:25.399 --> 01:26:28.520
he pulled the ball a lot,
you know, forty four percent pull rate,

1150
01:26:28.640 --> 01:26:31.640
twenty nine percent center, twenty seven
percent oppo. That's the shape of

1151
01:26:31.680 --> 01:26:36.399
a power production hitter. And it
sounds like he might be an option at

1152
01:26:36.439 --> 01:26:44.039
second base soon for the for the
White Sox so plus power at second base.

1153
01:26:44.159 --> 01:26:47.039
I'm I'm pretty interested. And I
think he's got slightly better contact skills

1154
01:26:47.199 --> 01:26:54.199
than someone like Bretty House as well, So they're not super far apart in

1155
01:26:54.319 --> 01:26:57.479
age, if I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, I don't think they're super far

1156
01:26:57.479 --> 01:27:00.479
apart in age. Maybe six months
or something. And I just trust the

1157
01:27:00.960 --> 01:27:05.560
ramost bat a lot more than I
do Brady House. And because of their

1158
01:27:05.600 --> 01:27:10.159
perceived difference. I think you can
also ask for for most people, maybe

1159
01:27:10.199 --> 01:27:14.840
not in the dneasy dugout, because
Chris has them ranked pretty close, and

1160
01:27:14.880 --> 01:27:18.920
I think a lot of people are
rightly listening to Chris's sage advice. But

1161
01:27:19.359 --> 01:27:23.560
in that kind of case, you
maybe you ask for one of my b

1162
01:27:23.680 --> 01:27:27.760
side arms that I really like,
like an Isaac Coffee, somebody who you

1163
01:27:27.760 --> 01:27:32.840
know low velocity but has really showed
out, I think largely because his approach

1164
01:27:32.920 --> 01:27:38.079
angle is just so unique that it
does not look like anything else any hitters

1165
01:27:38.079 --> 01:27:40.479
have seen, so like, I
kind of don't care that it's only ninety

1166
01:27:40.479 --> 01:27:44.159
one ninety two because it just looks
so different. But I think a lot

1167
01:27:44.199 --> 01:27:46.920
of people still really really care about
velocity. I think that's a topic maybe

1168
01:27:46.960 --> 01:27:50.479
that we'll save for another day because
we're already two plus hours in here,

1169
01:27:50.520 --> 01:27:54.760
and I have a lot more to
say about about that. But Coffee is

1170
01:27:54.760 --> 01:27:57.680
a kind of guy that I think
might be underrated by people, even though

1171
01:27:57.720 --> 01:28:00.560
he just had an absolutely incredible season. I wonder if from a lot of

1172
01:28:00.560 --> 01:28:03.760
people, I might be able to
get Brian Ramos and an Isaac Coffee for

1173
01:28:04.119 --> 01:28:09.640
Brady House, and I personally would
feel really really good about that? All

1174
01:28:09.720 --> 01:28:12.920
right? Matt? Well, you
know I love you and I know you

1175
01:28:13.279 --> 01:28:17.119
presented some great reasons here, But
in this team that we co owned together,

1176
01:28:17.560 --> 01:28:21.159
I have changed the password and kicked
you off of the team. Uh

1177
01:28:21.199 --> 01:28:27.039
oh, because I am not on
board with trading Brady House for Brian Ramos.

1178
01:28:27.359 --> 01:28:29.960
Tell me why? What what did
I do wrong here? Why do

1179
01:28:29.960 --> 01:28:33.119
you want to trade Brady House?
Who? Mind you? Not? Great

1180
01:28:33.239 --> 01:28:39.600
hitting environments versus right hand pitchers slash
three oh six three point fifty nine four

1181
01:28:39.760 --> 01:28:45.600
sixty six with eight home runs for
a guy who slashed two nineteen three sixteen

1182
01:28:45.720 --> 01:28:51.319
three sixty one with eight home runs
versus right hand pitchers, Like those splits

1183
01:28:51.479 --> 01:28:58.000
don't don't concern you, No,
I mean one, splits take a pretty

1184
01:28:58.039 --> 01:29:01.520
long time to be predictive of anything, and it would take it would take

1185
01:29:01.560 --> 01:29:05.319
a lot for me to be like, oh yeah that even a season's worth

1186
01:29:05.319 --> 01:29:11.880
of them. It's it's pretty rare
for them to be more predictive than than

1187
01:29:12.279 --> 01:29:15.880
just like a generic righty, you
know what I mean, Like than than

1188
01:29:15.039 --> 01:29:18.600
just having a baseline. So like
I, I mostly don't even look at

1189
01:29:18.920 --> 01:29:25.159
the splits until they're like they've had
like a couple of seasons of like bad

1190
01:29:25.199 --> 01:29:29.600
performance against an arm Okay, well, I don't think Ramos has ever been

1191
01:29:29.680 --> 01:29:35.159
great versus righties. These are two
interesting side by side players here. Ramos

1192
01:29:35.239 --> 01:29:41.680
led seven thirty and eighty seven played
appearances against lefties. House was six thirty

1193
01:29:41.720 --> 01:29:46.279
one in just about the same same
amount of plate appearances versus lefties. I

1194
01:29:46.399 --> 01:29:50.079
yeah, I do agree, you
know, to your point. Like even

1195
01:29:50.079 --> 01:29:56.000
though I would start usually by saying, yeah, it's gonna be noise for

1196
01:29:56.000 --> 01:29:59.079
a pretty long time, but like
that's a huge difference. So maybe there

1197
01:29:59.159 --> 01:30:01.039
is something there to the to the
splits. Yeah, I think I think

1198
01:30:01.039 --> 01:30:04.199
that's a good player debate though,
that's a that's an interesting one. But

1199
01:30:04.279 --> 01:30:09.199
I I want nothing to do with
White Sox anything right now, so we

1200
01:30:09.239 --> 01:30:14.880
would we would have a discussion about
that one. My co owning friend a

1201
01:30:14.920 --> 01:30:19.119
little short list here of some other
consensus of the three list top one hundred

1202
01:30:19.159 --> 01:30:24.760
guys that I was mowing around trading
with Tink Hans, Nick Abel, Carson

1203
01:30:24.800 --> 01:30:30.279
Williams, Jacob Mizerowski, Sebastian Walcott, Kyle Teel, and Hearson Waldrip or

1204
01:30:30.319 --> 01:30:33.039
whatever that's worth. But I liked
the three trades that I came up with

1205
01:30:33.079 --> 01:30:36.760
here to put on my application the
most. All right, so how are

1206
01:30:36.800 --> 01:30:40.600
we how are we grading this?
What are we doing? We're just looking

1207
01:30:40.600 --> 01:30:45.439
to see, like, let's revisit
it. We'll revisit a year from now.

1208
01:30:45.640 --> 01:30:50.279
We'll see if if we're morons,
if if any of our reasons here

1209
01:30:50.399 --> 01:30:56.119
it seems sound or looking good.
I don't want to say that I'm gonna

1210
01:30:56.439 --> 01:31:00.319
be coming out ahead of all three
of these trades. I've ideally that would

1211
01:31:00.319 --> 01:31:03.520
be the case, but I think
I can. I feel good that one's

1212
01:31:03.560 --> 01:31:09.319
gonna look pretty good, one's gonna
look probably once is not gonna look the

1213
01:31:09.359 --> 01:31:13.600
greatest, And that might be all
right if I come out looking and looking

1214
01:31:13.680 --> 01:31:15.840
good on two of the three,
and then I think that's a strong case

1215
01:31:15.880 --> 01:31:19.159
to get my license. I like
it. Okay, So we're shooting for

1216
01:31:19.479 --> 01:31:24.920
positive turns. You're not gonna win
every trade, but you want to win

1217
01:31:25.000 --> 01:31:29.760
more than you lose, right,
And maybe we can post the the hypothetical

1218
01:31:29.800 --> 01:31:33.319
trades in the discord and see if
we're off base, because you know,

1219
01:31:33.319 --> 01:31:36.520
it's always hard, like you gotta
know your league, you gotta know your

1220
01:31:36.560 --> 01:31:42.279
trading partners and what works for somebody
somebody else might be like, that is

1221
01:31:42.319 --> 01:31:45.279
a stupid trade. I'm not even
interested in engaging. I tried to go

1222
01:31:45.920 --> 01:31:48.399
like, yeah, I tried to
go as far as I could doing good

1223
01:31:48.439 --> 01:31:55.560
about it and giving someone an instant
slam the accept button. Yeah. But

1224
01:31:55.640 --> 01:32:00.119
yeah, So you can follow me
along on Twitter if you want pitching specs

1225
01:32:00.239 --> 01:32:04.840
and hey, fill out your own
B side license applications send on my way.

1226
01:32:05.000 --> 01:32:10.399
What kind of crazy, crazy walk
on the wild side you got there?

1227
01:32:10.439 --> 01:32:14.439
What kind of pretty boys are you
gonna send for some maybe unheralded guys

1228
01:32:14.439 --> 01:32:16.319
that you like. And if some
of those trades went down, I mean,

1229
01:32:16.520 --> 01:32:19.680
the V word is gonna get tossed
around like I might get. I'm

1230
01:32:19.680 --> 01:32:24.359
gonna get vetoed out of that league. You know. I think maybe I

1231
01:32:24.399 --> 01:32:28.680
had mentioned this once before, but
what was that twenty eleven? I think

1232
01:32:28.680 --> 01:32:31.600
it was. I think that sounds
right. I traded a very red hot

1233
01:32:32.079 --> 01:32:38.920
Tony Songranni starting pitcher. It was
a great year in a very very heavy

1234
01:32:38.960 --> 01:32:45.479
pitching points league for a not super
popular prospect by the name of Jose Ramirez,

1235
01:32:45.000 --> 01:32:51.439
and the league vetoed my trade.
Wow. And I never got a

1236
01:32:51.560 --> 01:32:58.079
share of Jose Ramirez there and i'd
be lying if that still doesn't bother me

1237
01:32:58.159 --> 01:33:01.840
some. And I hate Vetos,
I am with you. I hate Veto's

1238
01:33:01.840 --> 01:33:06.119
as well. I almost never ever
think that it's the right thing to do.

1239
01:33:06.319 --> 01:33:09.960
Now, it's not going to make
the league better, it's not.

1240
01:33:10.279 --> 01:33:15.920
It's like it's it's also just like
let people do what they're gonna do.

1241
01:33:15.199 --> 01:33:20.640
Like there's I was reading this is
right when I was getting into the dynasty

1242
01:33:20.800 --> 01:33:25.880
game. I'd played fantasy baseball for
a long time but had only done sort

1243
01:33:25.920 --> 01:33:28.399
of limited keeper leagues, and I
had never done a full dynasty league.

1244
01:33:28.439 --> 01:33:30.960
So I was reading up something about
it, and I think there was like

1245
01:33:30.399 --> 01:33:34.319
a bunch of posts on like maybe
the Dynasty Guru or you know, one

1246
01:33:34.319 --> 01:33:39.039
of those sites. There was like
this is you know how things change if

1247
01:33:39.079 --> 01:33:42.920
you're in a dynasty league versus just
a regular keeper league or redraft league.

1248
01:33:43.000 --> 01:33:45.560
And the article is good, it
was, you know, informative, interesting

1249
01:33:45.560 --> 01:33:48.359
stuff. But the thing that was
so fascinating was it was written in like

1250
01:33:48.600 --> 01:33:55.239
twenty sixteen maybe, and the examples
that they were giving of, like this

1251
01:33:55.279 --> 01:33:59.520
is a crazy trade that nobody would
do. You look back on it and

1252
01:33:59.600 --> 01:34:04.239
you're like, wow, the prospects
are way better in that trade than the

1253
01:34:04.279 --> 01:34:08.279
major leaguers. And they were like
talking about how that would get vetoed in

1254
01:34:08.279 --> 01:34:10.439
the league, and I was like, man, Dynasty, you just don't

1255
01:34:10.479 --> 01:34:13.680
know, right, Like you really
really don't know. So you kind of

1256
01:34:13.720 --> 01:34:15.800
just have to say, like everything
goes and you know there are problem owners

1257
01:34:15.800 --> 01:34:19.600
that you need to replace every year
and teams that get abandoned every year,

1258
01:34:19.640 --> 01:34:24.760
but it's still I think you just
got to like let people do their thing

1259
01:34:24.840 --> 01:34:28.239
and just be mad that you weren't
talking to that owner first. When I

1260
01:34:28.399 --> 01:34:31.199
sit down and edit these shows,
there are definitely times when I was like,

1261
01:34:31.279 --> 01:34:35.960
whoa, whoa, Nate Me,
are you sure that's what you really

1262
01:34:36.079 --> 01:34:43.920
think? Like this is divining rod
stuff. There is only so much confidence

1263
01:34:43.960 --> 01:34:47.079
that you can have and things and
players. Things are never as good or

1264
01:34:47.119 --> 01:34:50.720
as bad as you might think.
I think there's a lot to that idiom

1265
01:34:51.039 --> 01:34:55.800
And I don't know, Man,
you gotta let guys play in dynasty leagues

1266
01:34:55.920 --> 01:35:00.279
and do their things. Gotta let
people have their own evaluations and and like

1267
01:35:00.600 --> 01:35:03.960
who is trying to get our fake
license here? Like who's got the license?

1268
01:35:04.039 --> 01:35:10.119
Who is the gatekeeper of what's fair
and what isn't like, here's the

1269
01:35:10.159 --> 01:35:13.079
thing. We are, Nate,
We're the ones. We're going to issue

1270
01:35:13.119 --> 01:35:17.159
our licenses to ourselves. Right,
So that all being said, this was

1271
01:35:17.199 --> 01:35:21.640
a lot of fun. Hope you
come out looking all right. We shall

1272
01:35:21.680 --> 01:35:26.159
see, and uh, you know
it's interesting. You know we each sort

1273
01:35:26.199 --> 01:35:30.159
of like co signed on two of
the others others a trade. So that's

1274
01:35:30.159 --> 01:35:34.079
that's interesting, and some questions about
a third. We'll let Chicago Farmer take

1275
01:35:34.199 --> 01:35:41.119
us out and we'll talk to you
next time. Until then, we have

1276
01:35:41.319 --> 01:35:47.319
it down first with the lumbonius face, and on the very next pitch he

1277
01:35:47.520 --> 01:36:02.159
up and stole second face with greatst
be he wasn't born, He had dirty yes uniform