1 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:20,960 What is Kracklac and fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dampavalley coming at you 2 00:00:21,039 --> 00:00:25,000 with a solo podcast. Before we get started, the usual reminder, please 3 00:00:25,359 --> 00:00:29,000 remember to subscribe to us if you haven't done so already Apple, Spotify, 4 00:00:29,079 --> 00:00:32,640 Stitch or Google wherever you get your podcasts. Also hit that subscribe button on 5 00:00:32,679 --> 00:00:36,159 YouTube like comment help the algorithm love us back. If you have done all 6 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:38,759 those things, we asked that you tell people about us. Spread the word, 7 00:00:39,119 --> 00:00:42,000 tell your friends, family members, acquaintances, random people on the street, 8 00:00:42,119 --> 00:00:45,479 enemies, social media people shout us out on Twitter, Retweet us on 9 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:49,240 Twitter. Quote something we said on the podcast on Twitter. Anything you can 10 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:53,320 do to help spread the word about what is just a certified fantabulous podcast in 11 00:00:53,399 --> 00:00:58,640 my totally unbiased opinion, would mean the absolute world. Let's dive in here 12 00:00:58,679 --> 00:01:02,399 a lot to get to. I want to start with the Dallas Mavericks and 13 00:01:02,479 --> 00:01:06,439 the question became entering Monday, should the Dallas Mavericks tank, which is a 14 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,239 fascinating question for a team that has Luka Dontrics k Kyrie Irving that was coming 15 00:01:10,239 --> 00:01:14,359 on the heels of two straight losses to the Hornets. They did beat the 16 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,319 Indiana Pacers rather handedly on Monday Night, so that sort of quells some of 17 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:22,159 the concerns. They got a really big bump from the league. They re 18 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:26,560 sended Luka Dontrich's sixteenth technical, so it allowed him to play against the Pacers 19 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,959 on Monday night. He had one of the most wicked passes I've ever seen 20 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,680 in my entire life. Go back and watch that if you haven't already. 21 00:01:33,159 --> 00:01:38,560 And so this question of should the Dallas Mavericks tank coincides with are the Dallas 22 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,480 Mavericks fucked? Was the Kyrie Irving trade a mistake? The Kyrie Irving trade 23 00:01:42,519 --> 00:01:46,680 itself is still to be determined. When you look at where the Mavericks are, 24 00:01:46,719 --> 00:01:49,120 and yes, it's not flattering. They are four and eight in games 25 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:53,239 that him and Luka Dontris has played together. When you look at the MAVs 26 00:01:53,319 --> 00:01:56,280 since the trade, and this will include sometimes that he has not played some 27 00:01:56,319 --> 00:01:57,760 games that Luka Dontrich has not played, and look, that's part of it. 28 00:01:57,799 --> 00:02:02,680 Dontchmiss time. He hasn't always looked right coming back from injury. Kyrie 29 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:07,159 Irving dealt dealing with some foot stuff. He has not looked right in recent 30 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,919 games. The mass of the eighth best, eighth best offense though since the 31 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:14,840 Kyrie Irving trade. But they're twenty first in defense, which look, I'm 32 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,439 not gonna lie, that's actually higher than I thought it was going to be. 33 00:02:16,479 --> 00:02:20,800 When you watch this team, it feels like they can't get stops, 34 00:02:21,479 --> 00:02:27,159 more so than even the Kings. But their transition defense has actually been like, 35 00:02:27,319 --> 00:02:31,240 not totally crappy. They've had more issues when you're looking at second chance 36 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:38,080 opportunities and then just protecting the basket in general. Opponents are shooting over seventy 37 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:42,800 one percent against the rim since the Kyrie Irving trade. That is one of 38 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,960 the four wars marks in the league. These were when you and also let's 39 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:51,080 dig into the data on the Kyrie Lukadatric's minutes. The MAVs are winning those 40 00:02:51,319 --> 00:02:57,520 those minutes still plus about four points prone hundred possessions twenty one offensive rating. 41 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,879 The defense has been bad, though, and with those two on the courts, 42 00:03:00,039 --> 00:03:02,319 transition defense is a problem, which is not surprising because lukadan chich is 43 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:07,599 always complaining to the referees. It's what you would expect though, and you 44 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,599 look at the rim protection, it's bad. The ball containment is bad. 45 00:03:10,879 --> 00:03:15,759 This is what happens when you trade your best defender to get Kyrie Irving, 46 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,919 who's not I mean, like on his best nights. I think you could 47 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,080 say that maybe he's an upgrade over probably not Jalen Brunson, but enough grade 48 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:28,039 over what Spencer dinwod he was doing this season. Maybe not what Spencer Didnbody 49 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,560 was doing last season. Reggie Bullock, though, is not the same compared 50 00:03:30,599 --> 00:03:34,919 to last year. You're leaning a lot on Josh Green here. Jaden Harvey 51 00:03:35,039 --> 00:03:38,879 been standout, but he's also a rookie. You're integrating Tim Hardaway junior back 52 00:03:38,879 --> 00:03:43,360 from the rotation, and he is still a defensive negative. Maxi Kleiba probably 53 00:03:43,479 --> 00:03:46,199 now your best defender. Is it him or Josh Green? I don't really 54 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,039 know. It might even be Reggie Bullock. He has not looked right since 55 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:53,280 he came back from his own hamstring injury that he had surgery on. And 56 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,680 then you're playing You're still playing the Gal McGee's just a non entgy at this 57 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,319 point, you're still playing Christian Wood and he's had some I think higher defensive 58 00:04:00,319 --> 00:04:02,919 moments than I would have thought. Doesn't feel like from what I've caught of 59 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,240 the MAVs so much lately, you're playing Justin Holliday, who wasn't even part 60 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:11,800 of the Atlanta Hawks rotation. These are issues, some of them are our 61 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,919 symptoms of the Kyrie Irving trade. You're not gonna maybe go out, but 62 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:16,680 you probably still go out and get Justin Holliday, but you're not as reliant 63 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,079 on some of these other guys that Dorian Finnie Smith is still here. But 64 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,920 the Maxi Kleiba stuff, the rim protection stuff that was all on issue before 65 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,720 Kyrie Irving came here. And so I don't as much as everyone listens to 66 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:32,600 podcast knows how I feel about Kyrie Irving. You can't lay all of this 67 00:04:32,759 --> 00:04:36,639 at his feet, especially when all the reporting has been from Mark Stein, 68 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,439 from Tim McMahon. I think even Tim Kade over the Athletic has said this 69 00:04:42,399 --> 00:04:46,240 that the Kyrie Irving is well liked amongst his teammates, and I think when 70 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:47,720 you talk to players around the league, most of them tend to really like 71 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:53,439 Kyrie, even the players who are on teams that he kind of submarines. 72 00:04:53,519 --> 00:04:57,720 To look at the Cavs and how Lebron James clearly feels about Kyrie now that 73 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,879 Boston team I think John Brown has actually come out in defensive Kyrie at one 74 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,240 point. I don't want to misspeak there, so I could be wrong. 75 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,240 Maybe the teams he's played for they have these more complicated feelings towards him, 76 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:11,319 the players that are still there. But it does seem that Kyrie Irving's teammates, 77 00:05:11,639 --> 00:05:15,040 at least in Dallas, Let's forget about all the other places. Boston, 78 00:05:15,079 --> 00:05:17,319 Cleveland, Brooklyn is their weird stuff going on with him and Kevin Durant. 79 00:05:17,319 --> 00:05:19,800 He clearly rankled James harn the wrong way. So I'm not calling him 80 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:25,120 the best teammate in NBA history, but it does seem like he's been I 81 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,800 believe this was coined by was it Mark Stein? The consummate and professional. 82 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,240 Since he's been in Dallas, I think he's handled most of his media availability 83 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:35,000 really well. He said some dumb shit still, I think, like saying 84 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,120 that the fans, if they're gonna boo, they should come out and do 85 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,680 a better job on the floor or whatever, that was just mind meltingly stupid. 86 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:45,279 But again, I don't you look at the mass of struggles and it's 87 00:05:45,439 --> 00:05:48,879 the same things, maybe on a higher scale, because you made the trade 88 00:05:48,879 --> 00:05:53,079 in the first place. But Kye Everyone's going to come in and fix your 89 00:05:53,079 --> 00:05:57,639 defense. He was going to help you have that second shot creator when you 90 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,839 all while replacing the other second shot creator that you had in Spencer Dinwoody, 91 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,800 you were already at a shot creation deficit because of Jail and Brunson leaving. 92 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,600 And we don't need to belabor that. That is part of this though, 93 00:06:08,639 --> 00:06:11,759 too. This is not just about the Kyrie Irving trade. This isn't Kyrie 94 00:06:11,759 --> 00:06:15,199 Irving comes in the MAVs all of a sudden sucks something awful. Are they 95 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,959 worse than I would have expected since the Kyrie Irving trade? Yes, although 96 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,399 I would actually argue, and some of this probably has to do with their 97 00:06:20,399 --> 00:06:26,040 opponents and the games they've played. Luka dontchis missing some time. Their defense 98 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,800 overall, it's just been a little bit better than I've expected when you just 99 00:06:28,879 --> 00:06:30,800 go in and dig into the numbers when you watch it, it doesn't feel 100 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:35,079 that way. That problem is not going away this season and the MAVs. 101 00:06:35,399 --> 00:06:38,800 You might think that they're dangerous if they get in a playoff series, because 102 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,319 we know Luka don Chi has been lights out in the playoffs and absolutely sometimes 103 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,480 he looks gas when he's there. Now he has Kyrie Irving, maybe they'll 104 00:06:45,519 --> 00:06:48,879 work through some of the offensive warts that we've seen, which again the numbers 105 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:51,639 don't always show it, like Kyrie Irving kind of standing in the corner when 106 00:06:51,639 --> 00:06:55,240 he doesn't have the ball. That's not something that's going to make your offense 107 00:06:55,759 --> 00:06:59,120 maximized in the playoffs. It's going it's not going to optimize you. Certainly, 108 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,120 it will make you easy to defend against better defenses that have time to 109 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,720 gain plan around you in between you, in between games, because they're going 110 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,120 to have at least a day off and they're not facing other opponents in the 111 00:07:10,199 --> 00:07:14,680 intern there. So the MAVs are not contenders this season like they're at this 112 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,319 point. Yeah, you would expect them to make the Western Conference play in 113 00:07:17,839 --> 00:07:21,800 they're not guaranteed to anymore, and they are as I record this in eleventh 114 00:07:21,879 --> 00:07:25,639 place, so they wouldn't be in the plan right now. You're banking on 115 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,560 them usurping. The Jazz will do what they can to not make the playoffs, 116 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,639 but you're banking on them usurping one of the thunder the Lakers, maybe 117 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,600 the Pelicans, I would say, the Warriors and the Timberwolves and Clippers. 118 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,959 Those are teams that feel out of reach. So why not Tank keep your 119 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,800 top ten draft pick this year they owe it to the Knicks, and then 120 00:07:42,879 --> 00:07:46,759 you would be able to trade said draft pick theoretically after you actually select the 121 00:07:46,759 --> 00:07:51,079 player and trying and fix some of the issues that you have. Now that 122 00:07:51,279 --> 00:07:56,560 really just doesn't make sense to me, aside from the messaging that you're sending 123 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,800 to Luca Donchis, by doing that, you actually don't have a ton of 124 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,120 time. I'm with Kyrie Irving before he hits free agency. Let's like you 125 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,240 can assume, just because the MAVs can offer him the most money over the 126 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:09,319 most years, that they are the favorites to keep him. And I think 127 00:08:09,319 --> 00:08:11,920 that's a fair way to go. Otherwise Kyrie Irving would not have forced to 128 00:08:11,959 --> 00:08:15,680 trade away from Brooklyn. But I don't know that we can also pretend to 129 00:08:15,759 --> 00:08:18,120 know what Kyrie Irving is thinking or which way that he is leaning, and 130 00:08:18,199 --> 00:08:22,879 maybe the MAVs just if they won't even give him a full max and he 131 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:24,839 just decides to know what, then I'm just going to take a pay cut 132 00:08:24,879 --> 00:08:28,519 sign for twenty five million dollars with the Lakers since they decided to go with 133 00:08:28,519 --> 00:08:30,399 the cavspased rat, which I don't know if the only think they'll do. 134 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:35,679 That's just one example aside from that, just the chances here when you look 135 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:39,759 at the records in the NBA and like we are now for the Mavericks specifically, 136 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,639 we're seventy three games into the season. So the time to do this 137 00:08:43,879 --> 00:08:48,000 wasn't whoever he seventy three, isn't it more? Is it seventy six for 138 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,799 them? I'm all over the place right now. Yeah, so we're seventy 139 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:56,399 six games into the season for the Dallas Mavericks. This is not like the 140 00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:01,639 time to just turn around and tank. They can really stickley go from like, 141 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,519 look at the teams that are worse than the Bulls and the Jazz behind 142 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:09,120 the standings, they could probably catch them if they really tank their asses off 143 00:09:09,399 --> 00:09:15,480 to have what would be one of the it would be ninth worst record in 144 00:09:15,519 --> 00:09:16,519 the NBA. You're not going to get to the Pistons, the Rockets, 145 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:20,559 the Spurs, the Hornets, those are the bottom four records. The Blazers 146 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,320 they've been they've thrown in the towel. A while ago, it looked like 147 00:09:22,519 --> 00:09:26,200 and the magic that's going to be your fifth and sixth worst team, the 148 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:31,559 Pacers even and the Wizards, so like those to me are just going to 149 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,360 be the teams that have the eight worst records. Maybe the Jazz could catch 150 00:09:33,399 --> 00:09:37,480 one of them. But if you're the Mavericks, you have thirty nine losses, 151 00:09:37,519 --> 00:09:39,919 the Bulls have thirty eight losses, the Jazz have forty losses, you 152 00:09:39,919 --> 00:09:43,039 can catch them. That's the difference of as a right now, if you 153 00:09:43,159 --> 00:09:46,919 finished where you were, you don't make the plan, you're gonna have a 154 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:52,919 nine point four percent chance of getting a top four pick. If you get 155 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:58,000 to you know, pass, if you out tank Washington and Chicago, you're 156 00:09:58,039 --> 00:10:00,600 gonna have like a twenty point two percent chance, So you more than double 157 00:10:00,639 --> 00:10:03,879 your odds, and maybe you view that as worth it in this draft, 158 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,840 but like, okay, cool, and I guess you could say, well, 159 00:10:07,879 --> 00:10:09,279 if they finished with the ninth worst record, that means that they get 160 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:13,120 to keep their draft pick. That's fine, but you might just want to 161 00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:18,399 get that draft conveyance out of the way, because who you really, how 162 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,080 valuable is that ninth pick as a trade. Let's just say it's a ninth 163 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,159 pick. How valuable is that ninth pick? As a trade asset this season 164 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:30,639 offseason, I think teams would be more interested in probably distant Mavericks first round 165 00:10:30,639 --> 00:10:33,960 picks, which you've already given one away, the twenty twenty nine first in 166 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:37,519 that Kyrie Irving trade. So if you all of a sudden have to kick 167 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:43,399 the can on that Knicks pick two twenty twenty four, you cannot trade a 168 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,480 first round pick until two and twenty six, and so you can only trade 169 00:10:46,519 --> 00:10:50,480 your two thousand and twenty six or twenty twenty seven first round picks at that 170 00:10:50,519 --> 00:10:54,440 point. You can also trade your two twenty three first after you use it 171 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,279 on them, So like that puts you in a or you could still trade 172 00:10:58,279 --> 00:11:03,200 your two thousand and twenty verse round pick whatever that's not as enticing if you 173 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,000 go twenty twenty three and twenty six twenty seven versus oh, we can trade 174 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,679 twenty four and twenty six right now, like that is something you could do. 175 00:11:09,799 --> 00:11:13,840 Or you could trade twenty five and twenty seven to go with along with 176 00:11:13,879 --> 00:11:18,000 twenty twenty nine that's out there to the Knicks. You can trade two first 177 00:11:18,039 --> 00:11:22,000 round picks this summer plus other stuff which you have Josh Green, you have 178 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,320 Jaydon Harvey. I don't know that I shouldn't say don't know. Those are 179 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:28,919 not going to be considered blue chip assets, but they're not nothing either, 180 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,000 and so there are moves that you could still make, which is the other 181 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:35,759 part of this for me. I don't think the MAVs are in this enviable 182 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:39,960 position, but they have Lukadan Chich, they have Kyrie Irving, and you 183 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:41,759 can still go out when you look at the salary matching tools they have. 184 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:46,600 Reggie Bullock, he has half his salary next year is guaranteed, So let's 185 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,200 just view him as a ten point five million dollar expiring contract. At that 186 00:11:50,279 --> 00:11:52,919 point, you're only going to have Maxie Cleveland might still be viewed as an 187 00:11:52,919 --> 00:11:56,440 asset. Know three years at thirty three million dollars left on his deal. 188 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,480 As that extension kicks in, you could use Javal McGee. He has two 189 00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:01,919 years left on s deal, like teams might be waning to swallow that money. 190 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,919 You also have Tim Hardaway Junior will have two years left on his deal. 191 00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:09,440 Davis Petans will have two years left on his deal. So you're kind 192 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,440 of light on actual expiring contracts, but you have digestible salaries that are short 193 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:18,919 term obligations that aren't going to go past two thousand, twenty four, two 194 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,320 twenty five, that you can then attach to those two first round picks, 195 00:12:22,519 --> 00:12:26,559 which hey teams might be interested in because of the combustibility you're already showing right 196 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,320 now. Do I think that the MAS would end up having the best offer 197 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,960 for an og An Andobi, let's say, or mcal Bridges, I honestly 198 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,000 don't know. Let's just say they go as high as two unprotected picks, 199 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,879 and then you're willing to give Josh Green and Jaden Hardy. I think it 200 00:12:39,879 --> 00:12:43,879 would be one of the more competitive offers. It's not certainly not for a 201 00:12:43,879 --> 00:12:46,440 superstar level, but for those types of players. Maybe they're even willing to 202 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:52,840 include some swaps there that matters. And this isn't they're not incapable of upgrading 203 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:56,480 this roster. People are treating it like they've bankrupted all their assets. Again, 204 00:12:56,639 --> 00:13:00,639 I would not have made the Kyrie Irving trade, but this talk that 205 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:05,919 the MAVs have no way out right now, it's too premature. Now. 206 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,039 It becomes disastrous if you lose Kyrie Irving in free agency. But the market 207 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:13,200 for him is I would imagine it's going to be fairly sparse, like I 208 00:13:13,279 --> 00:13:16,159 don't even think the Lakers are going to act as a cap space team, 209 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,879 even if they're willing to go the sign and trade route. It's almost impossible 210 00:13:18,879 --> 00:13:22,919 to fit Kyrie Irving under the hardcap with Lebron and a d salary on the 211 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,080 books. Where else is he going? And so I think even if he 212 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,440 does leave, you're probably gonna go to the sign and trade route anyway, 213 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:33,240 so hopefully you would get something in return for him. That's the disaster scenario. 214 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,559 But guess what, that hasn't played out yet, Like, we don't 215 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,879 know what Kyrie Irving is going to do, and I think it's fair to 216 00:13:39,919 --> 00:13:41,440 say, as I said at the top of this, that the Mas are 217 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:46,519 overwhelming favorites to resign him. I wouldn't again pretend to know what Kyrie Irving 218 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,240 is thinking, with just the way he forced the way out of Brooklyn and 219 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,440 the logistics of the situation and the cap space climate. So many of the 220 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,519 teams that have it are sort of in the early stages of a rebuild or 221 00:13:54,559 --> 00:14:00,320 they're the Rockets and they're going to chase James Harden. So that disaster as 222 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,720 not played out just yet. And if as we expect Kyrie Ring comes back. 223 00:14:03,759 --> 00:14:07,600 Yeah, the rosters still facing the same issues. There are one things 224 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:11,519 you could do on the cheap to probably address rim protection. Go after a 225 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,879 Bismack Bimbo someone like that would go a long way towards helping this team. 226 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,399 You could take flyers on defense, first guys on the perimeter, or just 227 00:14:18,519 --> 00:14:22,840 cheaper back end rotation players for other teams, like a Javonte Green would really 228 00:14:22,919 --> 00:14:26,480 help this roster. You can go that route and you can still make trades. 229 00:14:26,559 --> 00:14:30,279 You're still going to have your mini mid level exception. I don't know 230 00:14:30,279 --> 00:14:33,600 who you can get for that. It seems like Bruce Brown and Matisse Thible 231 00:14:33,639 --> 00:14:37,720 have both played their way out of that priced here. Matistli Bill being restricted 232 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:41,440 free agent also makes it super difficult. I don't know if Howmadu Diallo doesn't 233 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,440 enough for this roster, but you have your mini mid level exception that certainly 234 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,799 can get you an upgrade on the big man front, and then you can 235 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,080 go out and trade. I would argue for at least one other perimeter defender 236 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,720 and maybe you break it up into two separate trades where it's well, we're 237 00:14:54,759 --> 00:14:58,120 not going to consolidate into and I'm just let's say, O Gianna Noby's an 238 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,080 option be he would be perfect for this team. Mas with Michael Bridges, 239 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,440 I think OG would probably make more sense, just because the MAVs don't need 240 00:15:03,799 --> 00:15:07,799 the shot creation as much, which Michael Bridges would bring you. They need 241 00:15:07,799 --> 00:15:11,679 the defensive range up front more, and I think OG would bring you more 242 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:13,519 of that. But let's just say you can get Ogan and Oby. You 243 00:15:13,559 --> 00:15:16,840 don't have to go that route. You can kind of take it down a 244 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,159 peg and do something like, Okay, well do we get a Royce O'Neil 245 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,679 from Brooklyn. I'm not saying Brooklyn would help. I'm not saying that Brooklyn 246 00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:30,240 would help the MAVs out by trading the Claxton or or Royce o on them, 247 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,399 but like you can go after Royce O'Neill level players and try and just 248 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,080 execute two separate trades on that front. You don't want to be net negative 249 00:15:37,159 --> 00:15:39,600 two first round picks in that scenario, per se. And there are probably 250 00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:43,840 names here that worse. None of us are certainly considering because we need to 251 00:15:43,879 --> 00:15:48,320 see how the trade market actually shapes out. And like I said before, 252 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,679 if there is a star that becomes available, no Dallas isn't going to have 253 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:54,080 the best bid. But if you're going after a guy like Alex Caruso, 254 00:15:54,559 --> 00:15:58,559 that might not cost you two first round picks just the time he'll be in 255 00:15:58,559 --> 00:16:00,919 his deal in what direction or the what direction of the Calv's going in at 256 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,279 that point, presumably you want a bigger wing defender if you're going to consolidate. 257 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,080 So no, from the MAVs, I'm not giving up two first round 258 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,600 picks Fox Crusoe, But those are names that they actually have the assets to 259 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,320 go out and get. I would think, I would think they could be 260 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:17,000 in the OGM NOBI business. Like maybe I'm overstaying there. What does it 261 00:16:17,039 --> 00:16:21,320 cost to get Jayshawn Tate out of Houston? He's been so banged up this 262 00:16:21,399 --> 00:16:23,840 year. He's banged up right now. The Rockets are kind of all over 263 00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:27,639 the place. They have Taris in there. kJ Martin's had a good year. 264 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,279 They have your bar Smith Jr. Are they willing to move Jayshaw Tate 265 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:33,799 without even giving up a first round pick? That's the route you could go. 266 00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:37,279 You have enough offense to where it's like, you know, he can 267 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:38,120 kind of put the ball on the flour and attack the basket. If his 268 00:16:38,159 --> 00:16:44,000 three's not falling, that's absolutely fine. So they are not without options, 269 00:16:44,039 --> 00:16:47,639 and they definitely should not tank this season. I'm not bullish on their future, 270 00:16:47,679 --> 00:16:49,240 but I do think we've kind of swung too far in the wrong direction. 271 00:16:49,639 --> 00:16:53,879 Both of these things could be true. The Mavericks have fucked up repeatedly, 272 00:16:55,039 --> 00:16:59,440 and what's happening now is not the result of the Kyrie Irving trade so 273 00:16:59,519 --> 00:17:04,480 much as the process that led them here, which was just misstep after misstep. 274 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,839 And they can also still have hope, Like they're not dead yet. 275 00:17:08,839 --> 00:17:11,200 This season, Yeah, it's over. I'm sorry, Like I just I 276 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,240 can't. I don't know what first round opponent. I guess if it's the 277 00:17:15,279 --> 00:17:18,599 Grizzlies, Like, if you're gonna go into a matchup with the Grizzlies, 278 00:17:18,039 --> 00:17:22,400 I might feel okay about picking Dallas in that, but I don't think there's 279 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,960 a first round series they're gonna have Rabbit picked them anyway. So this season, 280 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:30,359 yeah, it's dead, it's done, but their future is not overwhelmingly 281 00:17:30,519 --> 00:17:33,160 bleak. I wouldn't say that they're in an enviable position. I think I 282 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,960 already said at the top of podcast, but they're still hope here, and 283 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:41,680 I think we need to remember that the Kyrie Irving trade is not the disease 284 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:45,839 here. It's a symptom of the disease that is the Dallas Mavericks team building 285 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:51,960 process. Let's get to some bold predictions for the rest of the season that 286 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:56,799 I came up with, and the goal here I did this. Bleacher Report 287 00:17:56,839 --> 00:17:59,039 asked me to do this, so I'm going to relay it to you guys 288 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:04,000 here to see what you think. The goal here is just me gauging the 289 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:08,240 tenor of what's left of the season, what we've seen so far was happening 290 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:15,200 right now and deciding, Hey, these thoughts go against consensus, but I 291 00:18:15,279 --> 00:18:17,880 kind of believe them to be true enough that I'm throwing them out here. 292 00:18:18,839 --> 00:18:22,079 I will say that I try to go with more than fifty percent conviction on 293 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:25,759 them. One of these and I'll start off with that one. I'm kind 294 00:18:25,759 --> 00:18:30,079 of waffling on whether I have fifty percent conviction on but let's start this off 295 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,559 again. We'll see how wrong I am. I did this exercise I think 296 00:18:32,599 --> 00:18:34,960 a month ago, and I feel pretty good still about half. I said 297 00:18:36,039 --> 00:18:37,839 Damian Llward was going to make first team All MBA. I no longer think 298 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,880 that after he gets shut down. It's out after he got shut down, 299 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,160 not outside the realm of possibility. But it's not something that I feel just 300 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,359 particularly bullish on anymore. So dofics would still be a fun exercise. My 301 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:56,519 first one bold prediction Number one Jaalen Brown will make an All NBA team and 302 00:18:56,599 --> 00:19:00,680 become SUPERMACS eligible. This is a big deal. He has a lot of 303 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:07,000 money riding on the All MBA rosters. If he makes an All MBA team, 304 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,480 he would be eligible to sign a four year SUPERMACS extension worth a hair 305 00:19:10,599 --> 00:19:15,200 under two hundred and eighteen million. There's forget about that number. Merely having 306 00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:21,200 the ability to sign that deal would go a long way towards clarifying his future 307 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,599 with the Celtics. At the moment, there's not too much cause to fret 308 00:19:23,599 --> 00:19:29,720 over his ambiguous comments. Without a first career All MBA not he can only 309 00:19:29,759 --> 00:19:32,880 put pen to paper on an extension that nets him one hundred and twenty percent 310 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,279 raise. It makes all the financial sense in the world for him to hit 311 00:19:36,319 --> 00:19:40,640 free agency in twenty twenty four and not sign an extension. That calculation. 312 00:19:40,839 --> 00:19:45,000 That calculus changes with supermax eligibility. If he doesn't sign any sort of extension, 313 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,200 or if the Celtics don't offer one, then Bostonians can start sweating it 314 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,880 out. And also Brian to Porek recently wrote about this for Forbes. The 315 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:57,039 extension parameters might change in the new CBA. They're talking about maybe allowing one 316 00:19:57,079 --> 00:20:00,519 hundred and fifty percent raises and extension. I don't know. That still wouldn't 317 00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:03,720 bring Brown to what his max could be, but it would certainly help the 318 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,920 cause. For now, though, Brown is better off prepping for free agency 319 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:15,559 without his supermax eligibility. Whether he gets the opportunity to be supermax eligible is 320 00:20:15,759 --> 00:20:19,599 what we're debating here. He needs to get to that all NBA roster first, 321 00:20:19,799 --> 00:20:23,200 it's he'll be eligible at both guard and forward. It's not happening as 322 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,079 a guard. The pool of candidates is just too saturated. You have Steph 323 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,599 Curry, Luca don Chich, Shay gilch Alexander, and Damian Lillard. I 324 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,799 would argue those are all locks to take four of the spots. Then you 325 00:20:34,839 --> 00:20:38,400 have Daron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, John Morant, Devin Booker, and James 326 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,960 Harden, amongst some other guys who will vie for those final two slots. 327 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,720 Brown, though again he's gonna be He's playing most of his minutes at the 328 00:20:45,759 --> 00:20:49,759 three per clean the Glass this year, and he's gonna be eligible at forward. 329 00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:55,279 Jannis and Jason Tatum are probably the only two forwards I would pencil in 330 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,720 as locks. You could building it out from there. You could include other 331 00:20:59,759 --> 00:21:03,200 lots. Jimmy Butler does he belong there, but there are extensive absences from 332 00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:07,079 Kevin Durant, Lebron James, and Kawhi Leonard. That was from the beginning 333 00:21:07,079 --> 00:21:10,440 of the year that help open things up. All three of those guys, 334 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,200 by the way, we're on track to fall outside the top one hundred and 335 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,359 twenty five in total minutes played. Each of them could grab an all MBA 336 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,400 spot. In my opinion, none of them could grab it someone like Zion 337 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:22,960 Williamson already out of the running. Those repressed cases are really going to help 338 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,279 out Jalen Brown's paths to all MBA. They won't guarantee it though, like 339 00:21:26,279 --> 00:21:29,759 I said, Jimmy Butler, he might be close to a Locke. At 340 00:21:29,759 --> 00:21:33,440 this point you have Pascal Siakam Lowry Market and Julius Randall. All those guys 341 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:37,200 are gonna want a word. The other thing we have to account for here, 342 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,519 which is why I'm not super confident in this one. What if THEBA 343 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:48,000 does it's typical fudging the positional eligibility thing, where let's say Anthony Davis and 344 00:21:48,079 --> 00:21:52,720 Domasa Bonis are allowed to be voted in as fowards because they want or bam 345 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,039 Adebayo just because we've seen it before with Yo Kitchen Bead being eligible as fowards 346 00:21:56,039 --> 00:22:00,079 and they're clearly not forwards this year. I don't know how that's gonna work. 347 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,440 There's gonna be his big enough of a push. I think you look 348 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:07,039 in there's again it's four centers that could contend for it. In theory, 349 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,680 I guess five throwing Davis, bam Adebayo, Doma Sabonis, Joel Embiad and 350 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,799 Yokich And so if two of those guys are eligible at forward and it helps 351 00:22:14,799 --> 00:22:18,480 you fit all of them on an all NBA team, that would theoretically hurt 352 00:22:18,599 --> 00:22:23,079 Brown's chances. At the same time, Brown is averaging basically twenty seven points 353 00:22:23,079 --> 00:22:27,119 three assists a steal a game, downing over fifty seven percent of his twos. 354 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,920 His three point clip is dipped a little bit, but he is connecting 355 00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:33,559 on almost forty seven percent of his off the dribble two point jumpers. That's 356 00:22:33,559 --> 00:22:37,039 big. It's also the second highest mark of his career, and he's never 357 00:22:37,079 --> 00:22:41,279 averaged more free throw attempts for thirty six minutes. I think we also need 358 00:22:41,319 --> 00:22:45,519 to account his defensive responsibilities scale higher than pretty much anyone else. He's battling 359 00:22:47,079 --> 00:22:51,319 when you're looking at Okay Kauai no but and Jimmy Butler, no but, 360 00:22:51,559 --> 00:22:56,319 Pascal Siakam, Julius Randall, Lowry Marketing, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, 361 00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:00,000 even if you want to throw Sabonus in there, not Bam or Davis. 362 00:23:00,039 --> 00:23:03,559 Forget their centers. Let's forget those guys for now. So that has to 363 00:23:03,599 --> 00:23:07,279 matter too. And Marcus Smart per b ball Index, is the only Celtics 364 00:23:07,319 --> 00:23:11,480 player that has spent more time guarding number one and number two options. Ultimately, 365 00:23:11,519 --> 00:23:14,720 there's still too much season left for me to say I believe with every 366 00:23:14,759 --> 00:23:18,480 fiber of my being, Jalen Brown will make an MBA team. But I 367 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:22,160 think his candidacy is convincing enough to roll the dice, especially if you think, 368 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,160 as I do, that voters will favor players who are one extremely available, 369 00:23:27,279 --> 00:23:30,279 Mike Brown has been and have extension money on the line, and so 370 00:23:30,319 --> 00:23:33,799 I think we could see I don't want to say an over inflation of support 371 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:38,400 for Jalon Brown John Morant, but I think that those guys might receive more 372 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:45,559 support than you than we collectively may initially believe when media members know that they 373 00:23:45,599 --> 00:23:51,039 have all this extension money on the line. Let's move on to bold prediction 374 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,920 number two. I have this. It's gonna be wildly unpopular. The Memphis 375 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,440 Grizzlies will lose in the first round of the playoffs. Match up stand to 376 00:23:57,559 --> 00:24:02,920 dictate the fate of the entire twenty twenty three Western Conference Playoffs. The landscape 377 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,200 is either gloriously chaotic or sweepingly unspectacular, or some combination of both that waters 378 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:12,200 down the spiciness of me forecasting any first round exit. There's some extra heat 379 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,640 here, though, when I'm making it before the postseason lineup gets set, 380 00:24:17,079 --> 00:24:21,480 and when said team is on a streak, enter my distrust of the Memphis 381 00:24:21,519 --> 00:24:25,920 Grizzlies. They're really good, and they're about too in all likelihood. Finished 382 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,319 with the west second best record, They've managed to put some distance between themselves 383 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,960 and the Sacramento Kings. Despite navigating absences from Steven Adams, Randon Clark, 384 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,880 and John Morant, their defenses is advertised it's absolute hellfire. John Jackson Junior 385 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,359 would probably be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year if his minutes 386 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,119 per game were higher, and he still might be the runaway favorite anyway. 387 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,599 The Grizzlies as a whole are just in your face. They defend like control 388 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,519 to anarchy. They find. They are just They're all over the place, 389 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,960 and finding weak points to target in their defense can be tough. Even when 390 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,920 Morant is on the floor of this season, even the side of the Lucnar 391 00:25:00,319 --> 00:25:03,000 trade, that still doesn't mean we have to trust them and I don't. 392 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:08,359 The offense to me doesn't seem playoff proof. They're hovering around the bottom ten 393 00:25:08,519 --> 00:25:12,000 in three point in tenth three, they're hovering around the bottom five in three 394 00:25:12,039 --> 00:25:17,759 point accuracy, they are hovering around the bottom five and catch and shoot affective 395 00:25:17,759 --> 00:25:19,839 field goal percentage, and they are in the bottom ten and overall half court 396 00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:27,079 efficiency. That heavy dependence on second chance opportunities and transition frequency is not easily 397 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,240 translatable to the postseason. We saw that even as they put up a fight 398 00:25:30,279 --> 00:25:33,799 against the Golden State Warriors last year. Memphis is going to be even harder 399 00:25:33,799 --> 00:25:38,279 pressed to sustain its offensive rebounding presence if Steven Adams isn't ready to rock. 400 00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:42,599 We also know Brandon Clark is out for the season. The Grizzlies are struggled 401 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:48,440 on the glass ever since Adams went down with that right knee injury. I 402 00:25:48,519 --> 00:25:52,160 will say this is caused for pause. The Grizzlies are hovering around the top 403 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,599 five and half court offense since the All Star Break without an overreliance on second 404 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,319 chance points. That is incredible. It also isn't infer a new normal. 405 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,200 Dylan Brooks has been shooting well from three. That won't last. The team 406 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:08,160 has been shooting like fifty percent unlog mid range jumpers. That won't last. 407 00:26:08,759 --> 00:26:12,119 Luca Nard has been good for them offensively, but his minutes, I think 408 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,640 we'll get harder to survive in the playoffs. I also was Tias Jones gonna 409 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,799 continue playing like this into the postseason. Yeah, he's a starting caliber point 410 00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:23,400 guard, but is he gonna flamethrow at this level? These Grizzlies still have 411 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,759 the same flaws that they did last year, and I think it's gonna make 412 00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:30,319 them even more exploitable once they get into the playoffs. Internal leaps from Jaren 413 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,400 Jackson Junior and Desmond Bane help, but the roster again projects to be more 414 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:38,000 shorthanded overall. You're not going to rely on Zyar Williams for every minutes, 415 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,920 and you're gonna be without Brandon Clark, and then who knows what Steven Adams 416 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:47,559 is like, what his availability is going to look like. This then raises 417 00:26:47,559 --> 00:26:49,519 a question for me and for all of us. I would think, who, 418 00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:53,240 beyond the faintest shadow of a doubt, do you trust the Grizzlies to 419 00:26:53,279 --> 00:26:59,680 beat in the first round? Dallas, Minnesota, Golden State, Lakers, 420 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,599 clips. Those are all teams that they could be, that they might even 421 00:27:03,599 --> 00:27:07,039 be favored against, but they're not teams that you can just outright trust them 422 00:27:07,039 --> 00:27:10,960 to beat. I guess Dallas would come closest here. The optimism is going 423 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,960 to bleed through if you wind up facing Utah, New Orleans or Oklahoma City. 424 00:27:15,319 --> 00:27:18,839 My counterpoint would be, would it Utah is not gonna make the playoffs 425 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,720 or just whatever, and so they don't matter here? What if the Pelicans 426 00:27:22,759 --> 00:27:25,640 get Zion Williams in Bath, their defense has also just been playing better, 427 00:27:25,759 --> 00:27:29,960 lovely, and they've done a better job incorporating on his found tunis on offense 428 00:27:30,559 --> 00:27:33,240 or so they could be this version of the Pelicans. They could have the 429 00:27:33,319 --> 00:27:37,680 version of the Pelicans, the Zion back. They would be scary. Underestimate 430 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,000 the Thunder at your own risk. They sort of feel a little too happy 431 00:27:40,079 --> 00:27:41,960 to be here right now. But they're a team that has improved a great 432 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,559 deal on offense. They would have this is gonna quote, they would have 433 00:27:45,599 --> 00:27:49,519 the best player in that series this season in Jay Gellers Alexander, and they 434 00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:53,599 just have a lot of different options they could throw at you defensively as well. 435 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:57,079 Again, Memphis would be favored in I don't want to say majority of 436 00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,599 these series, but a good hand of them. I just don't think we 437 00:28:00,599 --> 00:28:04,359 can trust them to beat anyone that I really just named. If it was 438 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,680 the Jazz Shore, if you want to say, in New Orleans and Oklahoma 439 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,759 City Shore, but if it ends up being Dallas, Minnesota Golden State Lakers 440 00:28:11,839 --> 00:28:15,039 Clippers, things get really weird there. So yes, Memphis could definitely still 441 00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:18,079 make it out of the first round. They should probably even be favored to 442 00:28:18,079 --> 00:28:19,480 make it out the first round. That's sort of whole point of the exercise 443 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,240 that I'm doing. Though these predictions are not givens. I have the Grizzlies 444 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,200 losing in the first round of playoffs. Grizzlies fans would probably thank me later 445 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:32,440 because I'm just so constantly wrong about them, it's almost impressive. My bold 446 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,079 prediction number three, the Bulls will make the playoffs. This is bold because 447 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,680 five thirty eight gives them like a thirty percent chance of making the playoffs right 448 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,000 now. It's also bold if you watch them just get well I start recording 449 00:28:42,039 --> 00:28:45,599 the fort was over, but if you watched them get trounced by the La 450 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:51,079 Clippers on Monday night. I'm trying to sit here straight faced and continue to 451 00:28:51,119 --> 00:28:53,559 make this prediction about the tenth place team in the East that they're going to 452 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,839 win the play in tournam and make the postseason. At the same time, 453 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,599 I also can't pretend to understand what's happening in Oklahoma City. The Bulls are 454 00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,920 over five hundred since the All Star break, with the top three defense and 455 00:29:04,039 --> 00:29:10,200 top six net rating. They're forty four point shellacking of Brooklyn on February twenty 456 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:15,319 fourth inflates those returns but there's still eleventh in defense when you fact when you 457 00:29:15,359 --> 00:29:18,880 pull that one out and with a comfortably positive point differential permane hundred possessions. 458 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,200 And you could also say, look, Chicago had that own blowout loss to 459 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:27,359 the Sixers, or was in Mars twenty second who they actually beat on Mars 460 00:29:27,359 --> 00:29:32,480 twentieth. By the way they did beat the Sixers, that also skews their 461 00:29:32,559 --> 00:29:36,200 returns in the wrong direction, so that, in theory, would balance it 462 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,359 out. I don't know whether you could believe in this late season revival. 463 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:45,640 I myself am losing skepticism. I'm not going to dismiss it either. The 464 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,920 Bulls aren't going to can thirty eight plus percent of their threes until the end 465 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,519 of time. The roster's not billed for it. But it's also not like 466 00:29:51,519 --> 00:29:56,160 they're suddenly taking a ton more threes, nor is anyone playing especially over their 467 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,880 head. They've had a deal with Damarda Rosen's banged up quad, they've had 468 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:04,240 a deal with absences from Alex Caruso, but like it's so, they're not 469 00:30:04,279 --> 00:30:07,240 really even being helped there in the backup big man rotation is still sort of 470 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:11,559 a mess. But zach Lavine is torching defense is from every level. That's 471 00:30:11,599 --> 00:30:15,279 not unheard of. DAMARDA. Rosen continues to be de Rosen even as he's 472 00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:18,920 playing through that quad injury. Patrick Williams's efficiency has been off the charts, 473 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:23,680 and yet they're still dealing with the same ultra low volume issues. And they 474 00:30:23,759 --> 00:30:29,160 run into those same issues with Patrick Beverley and Alex Caruso too. Kobe White's 475 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,960 bandwagon is a little more crowded during the stretch. It is not filled up 476 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:37,559 beyond reason. Nikolovuchevitch is doing most of his damage outside the jump shot arena, 477 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,519 or at least the three point arena. The defense of success. When 478 00:30:41,519 --> 00:30:42,759 you look at it, it feels like an anomaly, but then it's sort 479 00:30:42,799 --> 00:30:47,279 of like, okay, maybe not, it would be a season long one. 480 00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,759 Then Chicago does seem to be getting lucky on opponent shooting from close range 481 00:30:51,759 --> 00:30:55,759 and at the foul line, but they're not getting overly fortunate anywhere else, 482 00:30:55,839 --> 00:31:00,680 and the exterior defense remains stacked with these lively who can test everything, get 483 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:06,880 inside jerseys, take charges, etc. Etc. Etc. Emotionally invest yourself 484 00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,359 in the pest year bulls with a metric ton assault when you're scaling ahead. 485 00:31:10,599 --> 00:31:12,640 They should still probably rebuild over the off season. They shouldn't double down on 486 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:18,200 this core. Don't financially invest in them either by any stretch. It don't 487 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,480 predict for them to make it out of the first round, to make it 488 00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:25,200 to the Eastern Conference finals or whatever. But I'm not presupposing that Chicago will 489 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,319 win a first round playoff series against Milwaukee, Boston, or Philly. I'm 490 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,480 just saying they will get there. And I think when you look at the 491 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:36,720 play in field right now, this says more perhaps about my distrust in Brooklyn, 492 00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,599 Atlanta, and Toronto, that it does about my trust in Chicago. 493 00:31:40,079 --> 00:31:42,200 I still think if you're going to put those four teams together to say that 494 00:31:42,319 --> 00:31:47,119 Chicago is the one that survives, and I'm just saying Miami won't be the 495 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:48,200 team that makes the play in here now. So I am making a little 496 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:52,680 bit of a prediction there. I don't think it's unruly, but it is 497 00:31:52,079 --> 00:31:56,240 statistically a bit of a long shot. Bold prediction number four. This one 498 00:31:56,319 --> 00:32:00,519 leaks into the off season, It's going to be an unpopular one, especially 499 00:32:00,559 --> 00:32:05,880 amongst Herb Jones Enjoyer in discord. I think New Orleans is going to break 500 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,720 up the Big Three over the office offseason, authors is definitely running a little 501 00:32:08,799 --> 00:32:13,519 higher. Around the Pelicans, they're on a five game winning streak. They 502 00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:15,000 beat the Clippers on Saturday Night. That's a big one. But they also 503 00:32:15,279 --> 00:32:21,319 you know, I'm not gonna throw confetti for them beating the Spurs the Rockets. 504 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,400 This version of the Blazers still still in their defense, the offense, 505 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:30,039 the offense teams to have remember that Jonas Falantunas exists. Over the past week 506 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,640 or so, the defense is seventh in points allowed per possession since the All 507 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:37,319 Star break, And while Zion isn't definitely coming back, he's not not coming 508 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:42,920 back either. That's basically the updates we keep getting. I still just I 509 00:32:43,039 --> 00:32:45,680 have to I can't believe in the recent sir. Just not that I don't 510 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:50,640 they have the talent, but I just I don't know that they're ever going 511 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,559 to piece it together. At the same time, pretty much everything unraveled after 512 00:32:53,920 --> 00:33:00,000 the Zion injury. New Orleans is now thirteen even after this winning street, 513 00:33:00,039 --> 00:33:02,680 they're now fifteen and twenty three during that time, with almost a bottom five 514 00:33:02,759 --> 00:33:07,519 offense and a shot profile that's begging for more threason. Rim pressure brand Ingram 515 00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:12,400 did miss a huge chunk of this stretch himself, but his return has not 516 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,000 represented this singular solve. The Pelicans are getting spanked when he and CJ. 517 00:33:16,119 --> 00:33:20,920 McCollum play without Zion while giving, while living and dying. Excuse me far 518 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,640 too extensively from the mid range. Expecting New Orleans to break up its big 519 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,319 three, which is basically just the way of saying they will trade Ingram and 520 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,759 McCollum, might seem like an overreaction, like, of course, the Pelicans 521 00:33:32,799 --> 00:33:36,839 aren't great Zion as yet again missed most of the season. How good are 522 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,000 they supposed to be? My issue is is better than this. The Pelicans 523 00:33:40,119 --> 00:33:45,799 need to do a better job reworking their core, both in and outside Zion's 524 00:33:45,799 --> 00:33:51,039 image, surrounding him with more high volume snipers and a rim protecting centerism must 525 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,119 his general transcendence can paper over a lot of other issues. New Orleans, 526 00:33:55,440 --> 00:34:00,519 though, cannot count on him being available enough for that to make a difference, 527 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:07,200 and so when you're reorienting the core around him, it's not that you're 528 00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:10,679 trying to plan for the worst case scenario so much as reacting to life as 529 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:15,119 you know it, and without him, the Pelicans need a better offensive organizer 530 00:34:15,119 --> 00:34:19,880 who has a more consistent presence from deep or at the basket. There's a 531 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,960 little too much overlap in both the individual strengths and weaknesses of McCullum and Ingram 532 00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:28,719 to fancy New Orleans a finished product near the top. Again, it would 533 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,199 be different if you were to say Zion's going to play in sixty games every 534 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:36,679 season. You don't get to say that, we have these four years' worth 535 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,920 of evidence to back up that that's not going to happen at this point. 536 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,960 I think the counter here would be the Pelicans can absolutely shake up the base 537 00:34:44,079 --> 00:34:49,320 of its rotation without moving McCullum or Ingram. They have future first round picks 538 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,679 and prospect equity to cobble together competitive offers independent of both those players. But 539 00:34:54,199 --> 00:35:01,880 this prediction indulges an increasingly strong inkling that New Orleans needs a better second or 540 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:07,079 third best player to optimize its window with Zion and will be prepared, if 541 00:35:07,199 --> 00:35:10,679 not forced, to act on it. And the final thing to consider there 542 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:15,400 would be, let's say they can pull off a blockbuster trade or two a 543 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,000 big trade, and I'm not maybe they decide not to pull off a big 544 00:35:17,039 --> 00:35:20,320 trade that would be a mistake. If they don't reorient the core in some 545 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,920 fashion, they can keep Ingram and mccollumn. It's what I would do. 546 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:27,840 Here's the issue though, if you get to a point where matching salary is 547 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,159 harder to come by, you have Larry Nance's money, you want to Salan 548 00:35:30,199 --> 00:35:36,400 Tunes his money, and that's like kind of the biggest salary numbers that you 549 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,280 could use if you're not going to move a Zion McCollum, Moorn or an 550 00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:45,880 Ingram there. And you also have to start worrying about because you're going to 551 00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:51,119 have Zion's max extension checking in about paying the tax. The Pelicans have said 552 00:35:51,119 --> 00:35:53,360 they would pay the tax for the right team. So many teams say that. 553 00:35:54,119 --> 00:35:58,519 So many teams say that. And so if you're tacking on someone with 554 00:35:59,039 --> 00:36:00,639 a big salary, maybe look, you're even trying to keep Jackson Hayes, 555 00:36:00,679 --> 00:36:04,320 who's going to be or shirt at free agent? Are you looking at bringing 556 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,000 back Josh Richardson? As of right now, if they renounce Jackson Hayes and 557 00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:14,559 they don't bring back Josh Richardson, they're still going to be you know, 558 00:36:15,079 --> 00:36:17,400 not they won't be in the tax, but they're gonna be like fairly close 559 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:22,719 to the tax. Maybe they'll have within seven million dollars in the tax is 560 00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:27,119 where the spreadshee I'm looking at has them within seven within eight million. Really, 561 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,719 that's less than the non tax payers middle exception. So if you use 562 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:32,719 the non tax payers mid level, you'd be committing to going into the tax 563 00:36:34,159 --> 00:36:37,679 there. If you're taking on a bigger number than just an eleven million dollars 564 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,239 player, If you're trying to turn you know, Larry Ance Junior and Jonas 565 00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,920 found Choose into a more expensive player, you're gonna be willing to enter the 566 00:36:44,039 --> 00:36:46,360 tax next season or the season after that. That comes into play, which 567 00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:51,079 is why looking at moving them a column or in Ingram might be viewed as 568 00:36:51,119 --> 00:36:54,960 financially prudent within the Pelicans front office or among ownership. I wouldn't support it, 569 00:36:55,039 --> 00:36:58,840 but that's just my gut feeling here is that McCollum or Ingram will be 570 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,639 traded over the offseason. If they keep playing like this, or Zion comes 571 00:37:00,679 --> 00:37:05,039 back and they just rip off a deep playoff push, then it probably won't 572 00:37:05,079 --> 00:37:07,360 happen. And again I'm not rooting for it to happen. I would love 573 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:12,559 to see this team as currently constructed, add some room protection, some shooting, 574 00:37:12,639 --> 00:37:15,280 and then go into next season. But the Zion health bugaboo hanging over 575 00:37:15,559 --> 00:37:19,679 all of this just leads me to believe that we might see something a little 576 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,239 bit more seismic then most people are counting on as we head into the offseason. 577 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,280 Let's see if I'm wrong. Let's see if I'm wrong. There My 578 00:37:28,599 --> 00:37:34,119 fifth and final bold prediction, shay Gil just Alexander will finish sixth in in 579 00:37:34,159 --> 00:37:37,239 the time I'll say top six of MVP, voting to leave open the door 580 00:37:37,079 --> 00:37:40,480 that he could finish in the top five still, which that would be a 581 00:37:40,559 --> 00:37:46,840 real bold prediction. Those who own residential real estate on the edge are free 582 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:51,559 to bump this up to that top five finish. I came pretty close to 583 00:37:51,639 --> 00:37:54,239 going there myself when I was doing this exercise. It's a little too bold 584 00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:59,840 for my taste. He's SG is not gonna surpass Janis, Joel Embid or 585 00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:02,840 a Kolioki and then leap frogging even one of Luca, Don Chris or Jason 586 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,000 Tatum at this point feels like a stretch. I think you could make a 587 00:38:06,079 --> 00:38:08,800 case for it right now, I really do. But that's five spots right 588 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,679 there. That would mean one more is left up for grabs in the top 589 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,840 six and MVP ballots. By the way, they go five players deep, 590 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,559 but because the point system and how many different names appear, they come up 591 00:38:17,599 --> 00:38:24,079 with a consensus top ten, and SGA currently sits six on my own MVP 592 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:28,000 ladder. He's not as short to get it. He will. He's definitely 593 00:38:28,079 --> 00:38:34,119 helped buy limited availability from let's say Steph Kevin rant Lebron James Kauai. Any 594 00:38:34,199 --> 00:38:37,079 one of them could still tinitely appear on ballots. I would think that Curry 595 00:38:37,079 --> 00:38:42,000 would probably have the best chance in the bunch. Maybe Kauai, Domanta Sabonis, 596 00:38:42,079 --> 00:38:45,159 Damian Lillard, and James Harden all hover around the top ten of the 597 00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:50,360 hashtag discourse. Jimmy Butler is definitely gonnaccountabize some consideration. Devin Booker and Anthony 598 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,679 Davis have probably played just enough to absorb some too. People with long term 599 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:59,360 memories won't soon forget Donovan Mitchell or John Morant either. Then we have the 600 00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,960 win loss purists. They might struggle struggle to consider the best player on a 601 00:39:04,039 --> 00:39:07,159 team that is neither guaranteed to finish at or above five hundred or in the 602 00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:14,000 top of the half of the conference as an MVP candidate like that. I 603 00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,239 again this s she is not the only player this could impact, but he 604 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:21,679 is the newest entry into that megastar tire, which also might hurt him, 605 00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,000 and it renders him uniquely vulnerable to oversight. It should not, of course, 606 00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:30,360 s she is averaging over thirty points and five assists while hitting five assists, 607 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:31,599 excusing me, while hitting more than fifty three percent of his twos, 608 00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:36,480 generating ten plus three throw attempts per game, and playing the kind of defense 609 00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:39,280 that makes you dream big, even if a little recklessly, even during the 610 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:45,199 error of broken statistical records. This meld of volume and efficiency bends your brain. 611 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,920 Prior to this season, Steph Curry, Kevin rant and James Harden were 612 00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,119 the only players to clear thirty points and five assists while matching SGA's current true 613 00:39:54,119 --> 00:40:00,320 shooting percentage, Dinging Shay for Oklahoma City's record or even his aversion of point 614 00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:05,119 shooting rings hollow. In the MVP discourse, He's still among the toughest covers 615 00:40:05,119 --> 00:40:08,599 in the league thanks to the eccentricity of his off the dribble cadence and the 616 00:40:08,679 --> 00:40:13,519 Thunder are also winning the minutes with him on the court by more than Dallas 617 00:40:13,559 --> 00:40:16,000 wins the minutes with Luca don Chi on the court. Are we going to 618 00:40:16,039 --> 00:40:20,079 Penoli Shay then for the minutes that he's not on the court. That doesn't 619 00:40:20,159 --> 00:40:23,000 necessarily make sense to me. Okay See at large is brimming with field good 620 00:40:23,039 --> 00:40:27,599 stories and developments. It is deep and improving, and on the cusp of 621 00:40:27,679 --> 00:40:30,920 a higher end rival. SGA is still very much the soul of its operation. 622 00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,000 Among the four hundred and fifty ish players who have who have been in 623 00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,679 at least fifteen games this season, only Donchitch and Trey Young see more of 624 00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:43,599 their baskets go unassisted. Shay, by the way, also continues to hover 625 00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:49,679 around the top ten and clutch win probability added according to I predictable. Like 626 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:54,519 every other guestimate here, SGA's fringe MVP candis say is not in arguable, 627 00:40:54,639 --> 00:40:59,119 and I think it's bold to say they'll finish in the top six. I'm 628 00:40:59,119 --> 00:41:02,480 myself wondering they'll he served one of Tatum or Don Chich. I think it's 629 00:41:02,519 --> 00:41:07,360 a fair question regardless his MVP case fringe MVP case, because we know he's 630 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:12,719 not going to finish in the top three. It exists in airtight supply with 631 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:19,599 the strength necessary and deserving of crashing the back end of the ballot. That'll 632 00:41:19,639 --> 00:41:22,360 do it for this episode. As always, I leave you will first and 633 00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,440 foremost. Please remember to rate, review, and subscribe if you've not already. 634 00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,880 If this is your first time checking us out, subscribe on YouTube certainly. 635 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:30,239 If you've made it this far and like comment, help the algorithm on 636 00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,320 us back. Tell people about us. If you've done all those things. 637 00:41:32,599 --> 00:41:36,239 Shout outs on Twitter, Quote us on Twitter the whole night. Join our 638 00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,719 discord. The link to that is in the podcast description until next time, 639 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:44,000 and is always to the shout us for one's the only Frankiokina and I offer 640 00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,920 my series of apologies, like all of the jet