What is Kracklac and fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dampavalley coming at you
with a solo podcast. Before we get started, the usual reminder, please
remember to subscribe to us if you haven't done so already Apple, Spotify,
Stitch or Google wherever you get your podcasts. Also hit that subscribe button on
YouTube like comment help the algorithm love us back. If you have done all
those things, we asked that you tell people about us. Spread the word,
tell your friends, family members, acquaintances, random people on the street,
enemies, social media people shout us out on Twitter, Retweet us on
Twitter. Quote something we said on the podcast on Twitter. Anything you can
do to help spread the word about what is just a certified fantabulous podcast in
my totally unbiased opinion, would mean the absolute world. Let's dive in here
a lot to get to. I want to start with the Dallas Mavericks and
the question became entering Monday, should the Dallas Mavericks tank, which is a
fascinating question for a team that has Luka Dontrics k Kyrie Irving that was coming
on the heels of two straight losses to the Hornets. They did beat the
Indiana Pacers rather handedly on Monday Night, so that sort of quells some of
the concerns. They got a really big bump from the league. They re
sended Luka Dontrich's sixteenth technical, so it allowed him to play against the Pacers
on Monday night. He had one of the most wicked passes I've ever seen
in my entire life. Go back and watch that if you haven't already.
And so this question of should the Dallas Mavericks tank coincides with are the Dallas
Mavericks fucked? Was the Kyrie Irving trade a mistake? The Kyrie Irving trade
itself is still to be determined. When you look at where the Mavericks are,
and yes, it's not flattering. They are four and eight in games
that him and Luka Dontris has played together. When you look at the MAVs
since the trade, and this will include sometimes that he has not played some
games that Luka Dontrich has not played, and look, that's part of it.
Dontchmiss time. He hasn't always looked right coming back from injury. Kyrie
Irving dealt dealing with some foot stuff. He has not looked right in recent
games. The mass of the eighth best, eighth best offense though since the
Kyrie Irving trade. But they're twenty first in defense, which look, I'm
not gonna lie, that's actually higher than I thought it was going to be.
When you watch this team, it feels like they can't get stops,
more so than even the Kings. But their transition defense has actually been like,
not totally crappy. They've had more issues when you're looking at second chance
opportunities and then just protecting the basket in general. Opponents are shooting over seventy
one percent against the rim since the Kyrie Irving trade. That is one of
the four wars marks in the league. These were when you and also let's
dig into the data on the Kyrie Lukadatric's minutes. The MAVs are winning those
those minutes still plus about four points prone hundred possessions twenty one offensive rating.
The defense has been bad, though, and with those two on the courts,
transition defense is a problem, which is not surprising because lukadan chich is
always complaining to the referees. It's what you would expect though, and you
look at the rim protection, it's bad. The ball containment is bad.
This is what happens when you trade your best defender to get Kyrie Irving,
who's not I mean, like on his best nights. I think you could
say that maybe he's an upgrade over probably not Jalen Brunson, but enough grade
over what Spencer dinwod he was doing this season. Maybe not what Spencer Didnbody
was doing last season. Reggie Bullock, though, is not the same compared
to last year. You're leaning a lot on Josh Green here. Jaden Harvey
been standout, but he's also a rookie. You're integrating Tim Hardaway junior back
from the rotation, and he is still a defensive negative. Maxi Kleiba probably
now your best defender. Is it him or Josh Green? I don't really
know. It might even be Reggie Bullock. He has not looked right since
he came back from his own hamstring injury that he had surgery on. And
then you're playing You're still playing the Gal McGee's just a non entgy at this
point, you're still playing Christian Wood and he's had some I think higher defensive
moments than I would have thought. Doesn't feel like from what I've caught of
the MAVs so much lately, you're playing Justin Holliday, who wasn't even part
of the Atlanta Hawks rotation. These are issues, some of them are our
symptoms of the Kyrie Irving trade. You're not gonna maybe go out, but
you probably still go out and get Justin Holliday, but you're not as reliant
on some of these other guys that Dorian Finnie Smith is still here. But
the Maxi Kleiba stuff, the rim protection stuff that was all on issue before
Kyrie Irving came here. And so I don't as much as everyone listens to
podcast knows how I feel about Kyrie Irving. You can't lay all of this
at his feet, especially when all the reporting has been from Mark Stein,
from Tim McMahon. I think even Tim Kade over the Athletic has said this
that the Kyrie Irving is well liked amongst his teammates, and I think when
you talk to players around the league, most of them tend to really like
Kyrie, even the players who are on teams that he kind of submarines.
To look at the Cavs and how Lebron James clearly feels about Kyrie now that
Boston team I think John Brown has actually come out in defensive Kyrie at one
point. I don't want to misspeak there, so I could be wrong.
Maybe the teams he's played for they have these more complicated feelings towards him,
the players that are still there. But it does seem that Kyrie Irving's teammates,
at least in Dallas, Let's forget about all the other places. Boston,
Cleveland, Brooklyn is their weird stuff going on with him and Kevin Durant.
He clearly rankled James harn the wrong way. So I'm not calling him
the best teammate in NBA history, but it does seem like he's been I
believe this was coined by was it Mark Stein? The consummate and professional.
Since he's been in Dallas, I think he's handled most of his media availability
really well. He said some dumb shit still, I think, like saying
that the fans, if they're gonna boo, they should come out and do
a better job on the floor or whatever, that was just mind meltingly stupid.
But again, I don't you look at the mass of struggles and it's
the same things, maybe on a higher scale, because you made the trade
in the first place. But Kye Everyone's going to come in and fix your
defense. He was going to help you have that second shot creator when you
all while replacing the other second shot creator that you had in Spencer Dinwoody,
you were already at a shot creation deficit because of Jail and Brunson leaving.
And we don't need to belabor that. That is part of this though,
too. This is not just about the Kyrie Irving trade. This isn't Kyrie
Irving comes in the MAVs all of a sudden sucks something awful. Are they
worse than I would have expected since the Kyrie Irving trade? Yes, although
I would actually argue, and some of this probably has to do with their
opponents and the games they've played. Luka dontchis missing some time. Their defense
overall, it's just been a little bit better than I've expected when you just
go in and dig into the numbers when you watch it, it doesn't feel
that way. That problem is not going away this season and the MAVs.
You might think that they're dangerous if they get in a playoff series, because
we know Luka don Chi has been lights out in the playoffs and absolutely sometimes
he looks gas when he's there. Now he has Kyrie Irving, maybe they'll
work through some of the offensive warts that we've seen, which again the numbers
don't always show it, like Kyrie Irving kind of standing in the corner when
he doesn't have the ball. That's not something that's going to make your offense
maximized in the playoffs. It's going it's not going to optimize you. Certainly,
it will make you easy to defend against better defenses that have time to
gain plan around you in between you, in between games, because they're going
to have at least a day off and they're not facing other opponents in the
intern there. So the MAVs are not contenders this season like they're at this
point. Yeah, you would expect them to make the Western Conference play in
they're not guaranteed to anymore, and they are as I record this in eleventh
place, so they wouldn't be in the plan right now. You're banking on
them usurping. The Jazz will do what they can to not make the playoffs,
but you're banking on them usurping one of the thunder the Lakers, maybe
the Pelicans, I would say, the Warriors and the Timberwolves and Clippers.
Those are teams that feel out of reach. So why not Tank keep your
top ten draft pick this year they owe it to the Knicks, and then
you would be able to trade said draft pick theoretically after you actually select the
player and trying and fix some of the issues that you have. Now that
really just doesn't make sense to me, aside from the messaging that you're sending
to Luca Donchis, by doing that, you actually don't have a ton of
time. I'm with Kyrie Irving before he hits free agency. Let's like you
can assume, just because the MAVs can offer him the most money over the
most years, that they are the favorites to keep him. And I think
that's a fair way to go. Otherwise Kyrie Irving would not have forced to
trade away from Brooklyn. But I don't know that we can also pretend to
know what Kyrie Irving is thinking or which way that he is leaning, and
maybe the MAVs just if they won't even give him a full max and he
just decides to know what, then I'm just going to take a pay cut
sign for twenty five million dollars with the Lakers since they decided to go with
the cavspased rat, which I don't know if the only think they'll do.
That's just one example aside from that, just the chances here when you look
at the records in the NBA and like we are now for the Mavericks specifically,
we're seventy three games into the season. So the time to do this
wasn't whoever he seventy three, isn't it more? Is it seventy six for
them? I'm all over the place right now. Yeah, so we're seventy
six games into the season for the Dallas Mavericks. This is not like the
time to just turn around and tank. They can really stickley go from like,
look at the teams that are worse than the Bulls and the Jazz behind
the standings, they could probably catch them if they really tank their asses off
to have what would be one of the it would be ninth worst record in
the NBA. You're not going to get to the Pistons, the Rockets,
the Spurs, the Hornets, those are the bottom four records. The Blazers
they've been they've thrown in the towel. A while ago, it looked like
and the magic that's going to be your fifth and sixth worst team, the
Pacers even and the Wizards, so like those to me are just going to
be the teams that have the eight worst records. Maybe the Jazz could catch
one of them. But if you're the Mavericks, you have thirty nine losses,
the Bulls have thirty eight losses, the Jazz have forty losses, you
can catch them. That's the difference of as a right now, if you
finished where you were, you don't make the plan, you're gonna have a
nine point four percent chance of getting a top four pick. If you get
to you know, pass, if you out tank Washington and Chicago, you're
gonna have like a twenty point two percent chance, So you more than double
your odds, and maybe you view that as worth it in this draft,
but like, okay, cool, and I guess you could say, well,
if they finished with the ninth worst record, that means that they get
to keep their draft pick. That's fine, but you might just want to
get that draft conveyance out of the way, because who you really, how
valuable is that ninth pick as a trade. Let's just say it's a ninth
pick. How valuable is that ninth pick? As a trade asset this season
offseason, I think teams would be more interested in probably distant Mavericks first round
picks, which you've already given one away, the twenty twenty nine first in
that Kyrie Irving trade. So if you all of a sudden have to kick
the can on that Knicks pick two twenty twenty four, you cannot trade a
first round pick until two and twenty six, and so you can only trade
your two thousand and twenty six or twenty twenty seven first round picks at that
point. You can also trade your two twenty three first after you use it
on them, So like that puts you in a or you could still trade
your two thousand and twenty verse round pick whatever that's not as enticing if you
go twenty twenty three and twenty six twenty seven versus oh, we can trade
twenty four and twenty six right now, like that is something you could do.
Or you could trade twenty five and twenty seven to go with along with
twenty twenty nine that's out there to the Knicks. You can trade two first
round picks this summer plus other stuff which you have Josh Green, you have
Jaydon Harvey. I don't know that I shouldn't say don't know. Those are
not going to be considered blue chip assets, but they're not nothing either,
and so there are moves that you could still make, which is the other
part of this for me. I don't think the MAVs are in this enviable
position, but they have Lukadan Chich, they have Kyrie Irving, and you
can still go out when you look at the salary matching tools they have.
Reggie Bullock, he has half his salary next year is guaranteed, So let's
just view him as a ten point five million dollar expiring contract. At that
point, you're only going to have Maxie Cleveland might still be viewed as an
asset. Know three years at thirty three million dollars left on his deal.
As that extension kicks in, you could use Javal McGee. He has two
years left on s deal, like teams might be waning to swallow that money.
You also have Tim Hardaway Junior will have two years left on his deal.
Davis Petans will have two years left on his deal. So you're kind
of light on actual expiring contracts, but you have digestible salaries that are short
term obligations that aren't going to go past two thousand, twenty four, two
twenty five, that you can then attach to those two first round picks,
which hey teams might be interested in because of the combustibility you're already showing right
now. Do I think that the MAS would end up having the best offer
for an og An Andobi, let's say, or mcal Bridges, I honestly
don't know. Let's just say they go as high as two unprotected picks,
and then you're willing to give Josh Green and Jaden Hardy. I think it
would be one of the more competitive offers. It's not certainly not for a
superstar level, but for those types of players. Maybe they're even willing to
include some swaps there that matters. And this isn't they're not incapable of upgrading
this roster. People are treating it like they've bankrupted all their assets. Again,
I would not have made the Kyrie Irving trade, but this talk that
the MAVs have no way out right now, it's too premature. Now.
It becomes disastrous if you lose Kyrie Irving in free agency. But the market
for him is I would imagine it's going to be fairly sparse, like I
don't even think the Lakers are going to act as a cap space team,
even if they're willing to go the sign and trade route. It's almost impossible
to fit Kyrie Irving under the hardcap with Lebron and a d salary on the
books. Where else is he going? And so I think even if he
does leave, you're probably gonna go to the sign and trade route anyway,
so hopefully you would get something in return for him. That's the disaster scenario.
But guess what, that hasn't played out yet, Like, we don't
know what Kyrie Irving is going to do, and I think it's fair to
say, as I said at the top of this, that the Mas are
overwhelming favorites to resign him. I wouldn't again pretend to know what Kyrie Irving
is thinking, with just the way he forced the way out of Brooklyn and
the logistics of the situation and the cap space climate. So many of the
teams that have it are sort of in the early stages of a rebuild or
they're the Rockets and they're going to chase James Harden. So that disaster as
not played out just yet. And if as we expect Kyrie Ring comes back.
Yeah, the rosters still facing the same issues. There are one things
you could do on the cheap to probably address rim protection. Go after a
Bismack Bimbo someone like that would go a long way towards helping this team.
You could take flyers on defense, first guys on the perimeter, or just
cheaper back end rotation players for other teams, like a Javonte Green would really
help this roster. You can go that route and you can still make trades.
You're still going to have your mini mid level exception. I don't know
who you can get for that. It seems like Bruce Brown and Matisse Thible
have both played their way out of that priced here. Matistli Bill being restricted
free agent also makes it super difficult. I don't know if Howmadu Diallo doesn't
enough for this roster, but you have your mini mid level exception that certainly
can get you an upgrade on the big man front, and then you can
go out and trade. I would argue for at least one other perimeter defender
and maybe you break it up into two separate trades where it's well, we're
not going to consolidate into and I'm just let's say, O Gianna Noby's an
option be he would be perfect for this team. Mas with Michael Bridges,
I think OG would probably make more sense, just because the MAVs don't need
the shot creation as much, which Michael Bridges would bring you. They need
the defensive range up front more, and I think OG would bring you more
of that. But let's just say you can get Ogan and Oby. You
don't have to go that route. You can kind of take it down a
peg and do something like, Okay, well do we get a Royce O'Neil
from Brooklyn. I'm not saying Brooklyn would help. I'm not saying that Brooklyn
would help the MAVs out by trading the Claxton or or Royce o on them,
but like you can go after Royce O'Neill level players and try and just
execute two separate trades on that front. You don't want to be net negative
two first round picks in that scenario, per se. And there are probably
names here that worse. None of us are certainly considering because we need to
see how the trade market actually shapes out. And like I said before,
if there is a star that becomes available, no Dallas isn't going to have
the best bid. But if you're going after a guy like Alex Caruso,
that might not cost you two first round picks just the time he'll be in
his deal in what direction or the what direction of the Calv's going in at
that point, presumably you want a bigger wing defender if you're going to consolidate.
So no, from the MAVs, I'm not giving up two first round
picks Fox Crusoe, But those are names that they actually have the assets to
go out and get. I would think, I would think they could be
in the OGM NOBI business. Like maybe I'm overstaying there. What does it
cost to get Jayshawn Tate out of Houston? He's been so banged up this
year. He's banged up right now. The Rockets are kind of all over
the place. They have Taris in there. kJ Martin's had a good year.
They have your bar Smith Jr. Are they willing to move Jayshaw Tate
without even giving up a first round pick? That's the route you could go.
You have enough offense to where it's like, you know, he can
kind of put the ball on the flour and attack the basket. If his
three's not falling, that's absolutely fine. So they are not without options,
and they definitely should not tank this season. I'm not bullish on their future,
but I do think we've kind of swung too far in the wrong direction.
Both of these things could be true. The Mavericks have fucked up repeatedly,
and what's happening now is not the result of the Kyrie Irving trade so
much as the process that led them here, which was just misstep after misstep.
And they can also still have hope, Like they're not dead yet.
This season, Yeah, it's over. I'm sorry, Like I just I
can't. I don't know what first round opponent. I guess if it's the
Grizzlies, Like, if you're gonna go into a matchup with the Grizzlies,
I might feel okay about picking Dallas in that, but I don't think there's
a first round series they're gonna have Rabbit picked them anyway. So this season,
yeah, it's dead, it's done, but their future is not overwhelmingly
bleak. I wouldn't say that they're in an enviable position. I think I
already said at the top of podcast, but they're still hope here, and
I think we need to remember that the Kyrie Irving trade is not the disease
here. It's a symptom of the disease that is the Dallas Mavericks team building
process. Let's get to some bold predictions for the rest of the season that
I came up with, and the goal here I did this. Bleacher Report
asked me to do this, so I'm going to relay it to you guys
here to see what you think. The goal here is just me gauging the
tenor of what's left of the season, what we've seen so far was happening
right now and deciding, Hey, these thoughts go against consensus, but I
kind of believe them to be true enough that I'm throwing them out here.
I will say that I try to go with more than fifty percent conviction on
them. One of these and I'll start off with that one. I'm kind
of waffling on whether I have fifty percent conviction on but let's start this off
again. We'll see how wrong I am. I did this exercise I think
a month ago, and I feel pretty good still about half. I said
Damian Llward was going to make first team All MBA. I no longer think
that after he gets shut down. It's out after he got shut down,
not outside the realm of possibility. But it's not something that I feel just
particularly bullish on anymore. So dofics would still be a fun exercise. My
first one bold prediction Number one Jaalen Brown will make an All NBA team and
become SUPERMACS eligible. This is a big deal. He has a lot of
money riding on the All MBA rosters. If he makes an All MBA team,
he would be eligible to sign a four year SUPERMACS extension worth a hair
under two hundred and eighteen million. There's forget about that number. Merely having
the ability to sign that deal would go a long way towards clarifying his future
with the Celtics. At the moment, there's not too much cause to fret
over his ambiguous comments. Without a first career All MBA not he can only
put pen to paper on an extension that nets him one hundred and twenty percent
raise. It makes all the financial sense in the world for him to hit
free agency in twenty twenty four and not sign an extension. That calculation.
That calculus changes with supermax eligibility. If he doesn't sign any sort of extension,
or if the Celtics don't offer one, then Bostonians can start sweating it
out. And also Brian to Porek recently wrote about this for Forbes. The
extension parameters might change in the new CBA. They're talking about maybe allowing one
hundred and fifty percent raises and extension. I don't know. That still wouldn't
bring Brown to what his max could be, but it would certainly help the
cause. For now, though, Brown is better off prepping for free agency
without his supermax eligibility. Whether he gets the opportunity to be supermax eligible is
what we're debating here. He needs to get to that all NBA roster first,
it's he'll be eligible at both guard and forward. It's not happening as
a guard. The pool of candidates is just too saturated. You have Steph
Curry, Luca don Chich, Shay gilch Alexander, and Damian Lillard. I
would argue those are all locks to take four of the spots. Then you
have Daron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, John Morant, Devin Booker, and James
Harden, amongst some other guys who will vie for those final two slots.
Brown, though again he's gonna be He's playing most of his minutes at the
three per clean the Glass this year, and he's gonna be eligible at forward.
Jannis and Jason Tatum are probably the only two forwards I would pencil in
as locks. You could building it out from there. You could include other
lots. Jimmy Butler does he belong there, but there are extensive absences from
Kevin Durant, Lebron James, and Kawhi Leonard. That was from the beginning
of the year that help open things up. All three of those guys,
by the way, we're on track to fall outside the top one hundred and
twenty five in total minutes played. Each of them could grab an all MBA
spot. In my opinion, none of them could grab it someone like Zion
Williamson already out of the running. Those repressed cases are really going to help
out Jalen Brown's paths to all MBA. They won't guarantee it though, like
I said, Jimmy Butler, he might be close to a Locke. At
this point you have Pascal Siakam Lowry Market and Julius Randall. All those guys
are gonna want a word. The other thing we have to account for here,
which is why I'm not super confident in this one. What if THEBA
does it's typical fudging the positional eligibility thing, where let's say Anthony Davis and
Domasa Bonis are allowed to be voted in as fowards because they want or bam
Adebayo just because we've seen it before with Yo Kitchen Bead being eligible as fowards
and they're clearly not forwards this year. I don't know how that's gonna work.
There's gonna be his big enough of a push. I think you look
in there's again it's four centers that could contend for it. In theory,
I guess five throwing Davis, bam Adebayo, Doma Sabonis, Joel Embiad and
Yokich And so if two of those guys are eligible at forward and it helps
you fit all of them on an all NBA team, that would theoretically hurt
Brown's chances. At the same time, Brown is averaging basically twenty seven points
three assists a steal a game, downing over fifty seven percent of his twos.
His three point clip is dipped a little bit, but he is connecting
on almost forty seven percent of his off the dribble two point jumpers. That's
big. It's also the second highest mark of his career, and he's never
averaged more free throw attempts for thirty six minutes. I think we also need
to account his defensive responsibilities scale higher than pretty much anyone else. He's battling
when you're looking at Okay Kauai no but and Jimmy Butler, no but,
Pascal Siakam, Julius Randall, Lowry Marketing, Kevin Durant, Lebron James,
even if you want to throw Sabonus in there, not Bam or Davis.
Forget their centers. Let's forget those guys for now. So that has to
matter too. And Marcus Smart per b ball Index, is the only Celtics
player that has spent more time guarding number one and number two options. Ultimately,
there's still too much season left for me to say I believe with every
fiber of my being, Jalen Brown will make an MBA team. But I
think his candidacy is convincing enough to roll the dice, especially if you think,
as I do, that voters will favor players who are one extremely available,
Mike Brown has been and have extension money on the line, and so
I think we could see I don't want to say an over inflation of support
for Jalon Brown John Morant, but I think that those guys might receive more
support than you than we collectively may initially believe when media members know that they
have all this extension money on the line. Let's move on to bold prediction
number two. I have this. It's gonna be wildly unpopular. The Memphis
Grizzlies will lose in the first round of the playoffs. Match up stand to
dictate the fate of the entire twenty twenty three Western Conference Playoffs. The landscape
is either gloriously chaotic or sweepingly unspectacular, or some combination of both that waters
down the spiciness of me forecasting any first round exit. There's some extra heat
here, though, when I'm making it before the postseason lineup gets set,
and when said team is on a streak, enter my distrust of the Memphis
Grizzlies. They're really good, and they're about too in all likelihood. Finished
with the west second best record, They've managed to put some distance between themselves
and the Sacramento Kings. Despite navigating absences from Steven Adams, Randon Clark,
and John Morant, their defenses is advertised it's absolute hellfire. John Jackson Junior
would probably be the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year if his minutes
per game were higher, and he still might be the runaway favorite anyway.
The Grizzlies as a whole are just in your face. They defend like control
to anarchy. They find. They are just They're all over the place,
and finding weak points to target in their defense can be tough. Even when
Morant is on the floor of this season, even the side of the Lucnar
trade, that still doesn't mean we have to trust them and I don't.
The offense to me doesn't seem playoff proof. They're hovering around the bottom ten
in three point in tenth three, they're hovering around the bottom five in three
point accuracy, they are hovering around the bottom five and catch and shoot affective
field goal percentage, and they are in the bottom ten and overall half court
efficiency. That heavy dependence on second chance opportunities and transition frequency is not easily
translatable to the postseason. We saw that even as they put up a fight
against the Golden State Warriors last year. Memphis is going to be even harder
pressed to sustain its offensive rebounding presence if Steven Adams isn't ready to rock.
We also know Brandon Clark is out for the season. The Grizzlies are struggled
on the glass ever since Adams went down with that right knee injury. I
will say this is caused for pause. The Grizzlies are hovering around the top
five and half court offense since the All Star Break without an overreliance on second
chance points. That is incredible. It also isn't infer a new normal.
Dylan Brooks has been shooting well from three. That won't last. The team
has been shooting like fifty percent unlog mid range jumpers. That won't last.
Luca Nard has been good for them offensively, but his minutes, I think
we'll get harder to survive in the playoffs. I also was Tias Jones gonna
continue playing like this into the postseason. Yeah, he's a starting caliber point
guard, but is he gonna flamethrow at this level? These Grizzlies still have
the same flaws that they did last year, and I think it's gonna make
them even more exploitable once they get into the playoffs. Internal leaps from Jaren
Jackson Junior and Desmond Bane help, but the roster again projects to be more
shorthanded overall. You're not going to rely on Zyar Williams for every minutes,
and you're gonna be without Brandon Clark, and then who knows what Steven Adams
is like, what his availability is going to look like. This then raises
a question for me and for all of us. I would think, who,
beyond the faintest shadow of a doubt, do you trust the Grizzlies to
beat in the first round? Dallas, Minnesota, Golden State, Lakers,
clips. Those are all teams that they could be, that they might even
be favored against, but they're not teams that you can just outright trust them
to beat. I guess Dallas would come closest here. The optimism is going
to bleed through if you wind up facing Utah, New Orleans or Oklahoma City.
My counterpoint would be, would it Utah is not gonna make the playoffs
or just whatever, and so they don't matter here? What if the Pelicans
get Zion Williams in Bath, their defense has also just been playing better,
lovely, and they've done a better job incorporating on his found tunis on offense
or so they could be this version of the Pelicans. They could have the
version of the Pelicans, the Zion back. They would be scary. Underestimate
the Thunder at your own risk. They sort of feel a little too happy
to be here right now. But they're a team that has improved a great
deal on offense. They would have this is gonna quote, they would have
the best player in that series this season in Jay Gellers Alexander, and they
just have a lot of different options they could throw at you defensively as well.
Again, Memphis would be favored in I don't want to say majority of
these series, but a good hand of them. I just don't think we
can trust them to beat anyone that I really just named. If it was
the Jazz Shore, if you want to say, in New Orleans and Oklahoma
City Shore, but if it ends up being Dallas, Minnesota Golden State Lakers
Clippers, things get really weird there. So yes, Memphis could definitely still
make it out of the first round. They should probably even be favored to
make it out the first round. That's sort of whole point of the exercise
that I'm doing. Though these predictions are not givens. I have the Grizzlies
losing in the first round of playoffs. Grizzlies fans would probably thank me later
because I'm just so constantly wrong about them, it's almost impressive. My bold
prediction number three, the Bulls will make the playoffs. This is bold because
five thirty eight gives them like a thirty percent chance of making the playoffs right
now. It's also bold if you watch them just get well I start recording
the fort was over, but if you watched them get trounced by the La
Clippers on Monday night. I'm trying to sit here straight faced and continue to
make this prediction about the tenth place team in the East that they're going to
win the play in tournam and make the postseason. At the same time,
I also can't pretend to understand what's happening in Oklahoma City. The Bulls are
over five hundred since the All Star break, with the top three defense and
top six net rating. They're forty four point shellacking of Brooklyn on February twenty
fourth inflates those returns but there's still eleventh in defense when you fact when you
pull that one out and with a comfortably positive point differential permane hundred possessions.
And you could also say, look, Chicago had that own blowout loss to
the Sixers, or was in Mars twenty second who they actually beat on Mars
twentieth. By the way they did beat the Sixers, that also skews their
returns in the wrong direction, so that, in theory, would balance it
out. I don't know whether you could believe in this late season revival.
I myself am losing skepticism. I'm not going to dismiss it either. The
Bulls aren't going to can thirty eight plus percent of their threes until the end
of time. The roster's not billed for it. But it's also not like
they're suddenly taking a ton more threes, nor is anyone playing especially over their
head. They've had a deal with Damarda Rosen's banged up quad, they've had
a deal with absences from Alex Caruso, but like it's so, they're not
really even being helped there in the backup big man rotation is still sort of
a mess. But zach Lavine is torching defense is from every level. That's
not unheard of. DAMARDA. Rosen continues to be de Rosen even as he's
playing through that quad injury. Patrick Williams's efficiency has been off the charts,
and yet they're still dealing with the same ultra low volume issues. And they
run into those same issues with Patrick Beverley and Alex Caruso too. Kobe White's
bandwagon is a little more crowded during the stretch. It is not filled up
beyond reason. Nikolovuchevitch is doing most of his damage outside the jump shot arena,
or at least the three point arena. The defense of success. When
you look at it, it feels like an anomaly, but then it's sort
of like, okay, maybe not, it would be a season long one.
Then Chicago does seem to be getting lucky on opponent shooting from close range
and at the foul line, but they're not getting overly fortunate anywhere else,
and the exterior defense remains stacked with these lively who can test everything, get
inside jerseys, take charges, etc. Etc. Etc. Emotionally invest yourself
in the pest year bulls with a metric ton assault when you're scaling ahead.
They should still probably rebuild over the off season. They shouldn't double down on
this core. Don't financially invest in them either by any stretch. It don't
predict for them to make it out of the first round, to make it
to the Eastern Conference finals or whatever. But I'm not presupposing that Chicago will
win a first round playoff series against Milwaukee, Boston, or Philly. I'm
just saying they will get there. And I think when you look at the
play in field right now, this says more perhaps about my distrust in Brooklyn,
Atlanta, and Toronto, that it does about my trust in Chicago.
I still think if you're going to put those four teams together to say that
Chicago is the one that survives, and I'm just saying Miami won't be the
team that makes the play in here now. So I am making a little
bit of a prediction there. I don't think it's unruly, but it is
statistically a bit of a long shot. Bold prediction number four. This one
leaks into the off season, It's going to be an unpopular one, especially
amongst Herb Jones Enjoyer in discord. I think New Orleans is going to break
up the Big Three over the office offseason, authors is definitely running a little
higher. Around the Pelicans, they're on a five game winning streak. They
beat the Clippers on Saturday Night. That's a big one. But they also
you know, I'm not gonna throw confetti for them beating the Spurs the Rockets.
This version of the Blazers still still in their defense, the offense,
the offense teams to have remember that Jonas Falantunas exists. Over the past week
or so, the defense is seventh in points allowed per possession since the All
Star break, And while Zion isn't definitely coming back, he's not not coming
back either. That's basically the updates we keep getting. I still just I
have to I can't believe in the recent sir. Just not that I don't
they have the talent, but I just I don't know that they're ever going
to piece it together. At the same time, pretty much everything unraveled after
the Zion injury. New Orleans is now thirteen even after this winning street,
they're now fifteen and twenty three during that time, with almost a bottom five
offense and a shot profile that's begging for more threason. Rim pressure brand Ingram
did miss a huge chunk of this stretch himself, but his return has not
represented this singular solve. The Pelicans are getting spanked when he and CJ.
McCollum play without Zion while giving, while living and dying. Excuse me far
too extensively from the mid range. Expecting New Orleans to break up its big
three, which is basically just the way of saying they will trade Ingram and
McCollum, might seem like an overreaction, like, of course, the Pelicans
aren't great Zion as yet again missed most of the season. How good are
they supposed to be? My issue is is better than this. The Pelicans
need to do a better job reworking their core, both in and outside Zion's
image, surrounding him with more high volume snipers and a rim protecting centerism must
his general transcendence can paper over a lot of other issues. New Orleans,
though, cannot count on him being available enough for that to make a difference,
and so when you're reorienting the core around him, it's not that you're
trying to plan for the worst case scenario so much as reacting to life as
you know it, and without him, the Pelicans need a better offensive organizer
who has a more consistent presence from deep or at the basket. There's a
little too much overlap in both the individual strengths and weaknesses of McCullum and Ingram
to fancy New Orleans a finished product near the top. Again, it would
be different if you were to say Zion's going to play in sixty games every
season. You don't get to say that, we have these four years' worth
of evidence to back up that that's not going to happen at this point.
I think the counter here would be the Pelicans can absolutely shake up the base
of its rotation without moving McCullum or Ingram. They have future first round picks
and prospect equity to cobble together competitive offers independent of both those players. But
this prediction indulges an increasingly strong inkling that New Orleans needs a better second or
third best player to optimize its window with Zion and will be prepared, if
not forced, to act on it. And the final thing to consider there
would be, let's say they can pull off a blockbuster trade or two a
big trade, and I'm not maybe they decide not to pull off a big
trade that would be a mistake. If they don't reorient the core in some
fashion, they can keep Ingram and mccollumn. It's what I would do.
Here's the issue though, if you get to a point where matching salary is
harder to come by, you have Larry Nance's money, you want to Salan
Tunes his money, and that's like kind of the biggest salary numbers that you
could use if you're not going to move a Zion McCollum, Moorn or an
Ingram there. And you also have to start worrying about because you're going to
have Zion's max extension checking in about paying the tax. The Pelicans have said
they would pay the tax for the right team. So many teams say that.
So many teams say that. And so if you're tacking on someone with
a big salary, maybe look, you're even trying to keep Jackson Hayes,
who's going to be or shirt at free agent? Are you looking at bringing
back Josh Richardson? As of right now, if they renounce Jackson Hayes and
they don't bring back Josh Richardson, they're still going to be you know,
not they won't be in the tax, but they're gonna be like fairly close
to the tax. Maybe they'll have within seven million dollars in the tax is
where the spreadshee I'm looking at has them within seven within eight million. Really,
that's less than the non tax payers middle exception. So if you use
the non tax payers mid level, you'd be committing to going into the tax
there. If you're taking on a bigger number than just an eleven million dollars
player, If you're trying to turn you know, Larry Ance Junior and Jonas
found Choose into a more expensive player, you're gonna be willing to enter the
tax next season or the season after that. That comes into play, which
is why looking at moving them a column or in Ingram might be viewed as
financially prudent within the Pelicans front office or among ownership. I wouldn't support it,
but that's just my gut feeling here is that McCollum or Ingram will be
traded over the offseason. If they keep playing like this, or Zion comes
back and they just rip off a deep playoff push, then it probably won't
happen. And again I'm not rooting for it to happen. I would love
to see this team as currently constructed, add some room protection, some shooting,
and then go into next season. But the Zion health bugaboo hanging over
all of this just leads me to believe that we might see something a little
bit more seismic then most people are counting on as we head into the offseason.
Let's see if I'm wrong. Let's see if I'm wrong. There My
fifth and final bold prediction, shay Gil just Alexander will finish sixth in in
the time I'll say top six of MVP, voting to leave open the door
that he could finish in the top five still, which that would be a
real bold prediction. Those who own residential real estate on the edge are free
to bump this up to that top five finish. I came pretty close to
going there myself when I was doing this exercise. It's a little too bold
for my taste. He's SG is not gonna surpass Janis, Joel Embid or
a Kolioki and then leap frogging even one of Luca, Don Chris or Jason
Tatum at this point feels like a stretch. I think you could make a
case for it right now, I really do. But that's five spots right
there. That would mean one more is left up for grabs in the top
six and MVP ballots. By the way, they go five players deep,
but because the point system and how many different names appear, they come up
with a consensus top ten, and SGA currently sits six on my own MVP
ladder. He's not as short to get it. He will. He's definitely
helped buy limited availability from let's say Steph Kevin rant Lebron James Kauai. Any
one of them could still tinitely appear on ballots. I would think that Curry
would probably have the best chance in the bunch. Maybe Kauai, Domanta Sabonis,
Damian Lillard, and James Harden all hover around the top ten of the
hashtag discourse. Jimmy Butler is definitely gonnaccountabize some consideration. Devin Booker and Anthony
Davis have probably played just enough to absorb some too. People with long term
memories won't soon forget Donovan Mitchell or John Morant either. Then we have the
win loss purists. They might struggle struggle to consider the best player on a
team that is neither guaranteed to finish at or above five hundred or in the
top of the half of the conference as an MVP candidate like that. I
again this s she is not the only player this could impact, but he
is the newest entry into that megastar tire, which also might hurt him,
and it renders him uniquely vulnerable to oversight. It should not, of course,
s she is averaging over thirty points and five assists while hitting five assists,
excusing me, while hitting more than fifty three percent of his twos,
generating ten plus three throw attempts per game, and playing the kind of defense
that makes you dream big, even if a little recklessly, even during the
error of broken statistical records. This meld of volume and efficiency bends your brain.
Prior to this season, Steph Curry, Kevin rant and James Harden were
the only players to clear thirty points and five assists while matching SGA's current true
shooting percentage, Dinging Shay for Oklahoma City's record or even his aversion of point
shooting rings hollow. In the MVP discourse, He's still among the toughest covers
in the league thanks to the eccentricity of his off the dribble cadence and the
Thunder are also winning the minutes with him on the court by more than Dallas
wins the minutes with Luca don Chi on the court. Are we going to
Penoli Shay then for the minutes that he's not on the court. That doesn't
necessarily make sense to me. Okay See at large is brimming with field good
stories and developments. It is deep and improving, and on the cusp of
a higher end rival. SGA is still very much the soul of its operation.
Among the four hundred and fifty ish players who have who have been in
at least fifteen games this season, only Donchitch and Trey Young see more of
their baskets go unassisted. Shay, by the way, also continues to hover
around the top ten and clutch win probability added according to I predictable. Like
every other guestimate here, SGA's fringe MVP candis say is not in arguable,
and I think it's bold to say they'll finish in the top six. I'm
myself wondering they'll he served one of Tatum or Don Chich. I think it's
a fair question regardless his MVP case fringe MVP case, because we know he's
not going to finish in the top three. It exists in airtight supply with
the strength necessary and deserving of crashing the back end of the ballot. That'll
do it for this episode. As always, I leave you will first and
foremost. Please remember to rate, review, and subscribe if you've not already.
If this is your first time checking us out, subscribe on YouTube certainly.
If you've made it this far and like comment, help the algorithm on
us back. Tell people about us. If you've done all those things.
Shout outs on Twitter, Quote us on Twitter the whole night. Join our
discord. The link to that is in the podcast description until next time,
and is always to the shout us for one's the only Frankiokina and I offer
my series of apologies, like all of the jet