WEBVTT

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Not five miles an hour riding to
his head. You have it down first

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with the lump bonius face, and
on the very next pitch he up and

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stole second face with greatest be He
wasn't born, he had yes uniform.

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All right. Welcome to episode twenty
one of the Prospect. Besides podcast,

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I am Nate Handy joining me is
the rook a room? How are you,

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my friend? I am great,
Nate. How are you good?

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It's good to talk to you,
man. I feel like it hasn't been

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that long, but it feels like
it's been a minute since I've, you

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know, chatted with you. I
was thinking the same thing, and maybe

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it was partly because we got to
talk less since we had Chris on last

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week and we took a couple of
extra days this week. But I was

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when I was sitting down to log
in, I was like, oh,

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man, it's been a while.
I was like, it's just last week.

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We talked about some good stuff.
But yeah, I have to ask

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at the outset, is my mic
better? Today? I realized like my

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computer picked up the wrong mic and
I sounded like shit the whole time.

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And you can hear my loud family
in the other room it was bad.

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I didn't I didn't get any complaints, so a few few at least the

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content was okay, even if even
if my end sounded shitty. We're getting

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like called up a little bit here, Matt. We're getting all to the

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show. We're gonna do some mutting, some B siding MLB style. Wow.

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Yeah, see how this goes sort
of the idea a few years ago.

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It was a little bit of an
experiment put together a top one hundred

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list, an alternative to a top
one hundred prospect list. Now, what

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I learned is that hundred of these
types of players that we're going to talk

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about is far too too many.
But the idea is was in dynasty leagues

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trying to value evaluate sort of I
don't know, you might call them post

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hype or sort of unexpected players getting
MLB chances something like that. Right,

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the demographic is sort of post prospect
to like, for a hitter less than

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seven hundred MLB played appearances for a
picture. I don't know what I said

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at that three hundred, four hundred
innings or something like that, because I

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think often, especially if you're like
a rebuilding dynasty squad, I think there

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can be a lot of value with
these types of players. We'll talk about

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some things and try to give some
perspective on that and some examples some young

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MLB bats that I think might still
be on the up and up and have

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some major league opportunity in front of
them. Does that make sense, Matt?

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Does that sound good to you?
Does it sounds like an interesting challenge?

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I know when we talked about this
initially, I wasn't quite sure just

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how deep to go. So I
do have a couple of kind of they

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sort of fit this bill, I'll
say, but guys that I'm excited about

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and think should be maybe closer to
top of mind as people are going into

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their redrafts, especially in deeper formats, or even a target in a deeper

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league as a throw in that we
think might have some extra skills that are

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going underappreciated. And then and then
of course I got my mutters on.

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I went I went deep. Some
of these guys that you hear their names

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and they give you that visceral shudder
because they burned you three years ago and

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they're still kicking around and you're like, I couldn't possibly roster them again.

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Well, I found a couple of
those guys that maybe maybe you should just

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reconsider. So it's a it's an
interesting different take on our b siding exercise.

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My guy Aaron over in IL,
I saw him a couple of days

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ago, and then I brought up
a really good point. It's like the

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day of the sleeper. I don't
want to say that it's like over,

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but it's it's different now, like
I think, and he had said,

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it's more about like avoiding in redraft
leagues, avoiding the early round. Now

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it's more about avoiding the early round
pick that doesn't return its value as opposed

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to finding that quote sleeper. You
know, yeah, dynasty players, fantasy

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players. I think, like we
said, we're getting smarter and there's more

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coverage. And felt like for many
years in redraft especially there'd be a ti

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Oscar Hernandez I'd come across. I
don't know, Dominic Smith was a big

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sort of fine for me for one
year someone like that. But those guys

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aren't getting I think tougher to find
year to year. More people are valuing

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them. But nevertheless, dynasty redraft, I got some young major league players

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I want to talk about here.
I wanted to just touch briefly, matt

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On Jose Miranda. He's much more
popular rostered in many more leagues than the

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other bats that I'm going to talk
about. I looked at NFBC ADP for

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all these players. Man. I
don't know if you pick up on this

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or notice this, but there is
a big difference between ADP and ADP rank,

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and I don't think that gets communicated
really well sometimes, like you know,

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go get player X or whatever is
ady. He's not going drafted in

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NFBC leagues. He's his ADP is
four to twenty or whatever or what does

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it go up to four fifties?
ADP is like four to seventy five,

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And okay, yeah, that's true, that's his average draft position, but

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he's ranked like three hundred and twenty
five as far as a he is getting

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drafted, like you can't necessarily just
wait for the last round to pick him

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up. I much prefer to look
at ADP rank than actual ADP. That's

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a good point. I haven't thought
about it like that, but you make

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a compelling argument. And so all
these bats that I'm gonna talk about are

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ADP ranked outside of four point fifty, which I think in NFBC. They're

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like standard fifteen team Roto is outside
of draft range or something like that.

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But Jose Miranda, he is outside
of that. He's not getting drafted very

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highly and interested in your opinion on
him. He's rostered in thirty eight percent

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of fan tracks leagues. Take that
for what it's worth. We got to

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figure out. I don't have no
idea how many of that, how much

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of that is redraft to dynasty with
some perspective at the same rate as Chase

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excuse me, Chase Dolander, Roderick, Arius, Justin Crawford, Jacob Marci,

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Diego, Kartaiya Dalton, Russian,
Nick York. And he's rostered less

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than to Kale Roby, your boy, JDP, Christian Scott, Chase,

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Petty Brock, Wilkin, Tommy Troy
Brock, Porter, Kyle Hurton, Keaton

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Win. That's kind of interesting to
me. I don't know about you,

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Matt, but dynasty wise, I'd
much rather have a share of Miranda than

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some of those guys at this juncture. Why why is that? You?

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You know, certainly some of those
names are fades for me, but a

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lot of them are pretty interesting on
the dynasty side, and one consideration that

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I think we'll touch on a few
times in this conversation is once a prospect

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or a player exhausts their prospect eligibility, it can be tougher to justify rostering

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them for a significant period of time. And our boy Miranda here is of

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course well over that with six hundred
and thirty five played appearances already in the

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Major League. So why does Miranda
still hold some value for you and interest

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even though he's maybe falling in the
graces of the wider community, just kind

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of comparing some other young mlbers that
might be kind of in the same boat

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as Miranda as far as just maybe
not producing the way that you wanted to.

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I do feel like dynasty owners,
Miranda owners are sticking with it more

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so than that. And you're right, and you bring up a great point,

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very format dependent, right, You're
in a you know, RAS thirty.

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I can't keep a bunch of bench
mlbers that aren't going to produce for

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me right off the bat. Other
leagues I can, right, other leagues

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that I can, so, of
course, yeah, and that obviously plays

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into the raster percentages. But Miranda, overall, I just still think there's

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a combo of hit and power,
and I'm that sold can't work really well

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in the bigs. Digging around on
him some I couldn't find anything obvious pointing

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towards him getting like pitched differently,
or struggling with specific pitches or locations or

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things like trying to answer the question
like it did MLB pitching figure him out

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sort of thing. Yeah, I
was on Savot looking at all the zone

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stuff, and not that I'm some
great scholar at all that, but to

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me, I couldn't find anything pointing
to anything like that. I think last

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year he just he didn't smash good
pitches like he historically has. I think

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it just seemed like, and I
watched a good bit of Miranda, just

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seemed like he wasn't squaring the ball
up as well, not hitting it as

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hard as he has in the past. I'm on the like he wasn't physically

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well in twenty twenty three train or
perhaps he was struggling a little bit and

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then the physical stuff just really impeded
him later on. I know the Twins

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might have kind of a crowded infield. Got a little bit less crowded with

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your voice now, Yeah, but
early August of twenty twenty one. Now,

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Miranda wasn't like an official B side
selection, but he very much was

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a B side type in twenty twenty
one, and I had gotten a bit

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vocal about him and watched three hundred
of his plate appearances and shared some video

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and kept notes and all the bats
and all that stuff, right, blah

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blah blah. But I thought this
was kind of fun, Matt, if

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you don't mind appeasing me. But
you know, after you write that piece

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and all people are going to want
to know, well, where do you

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rank him? Right? So I
offered this up. Tell me what you

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think today. Two and a half
years later. At that time, there

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was a lot of talk about like
Jordan Walker, right, how good is

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Jordan Walker? He was just getting
his pro career going. Would I rather

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have a share of Miranda over Jordan
Walker? I would take the risk of

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missing out on super elite Fantasy upside, which is very rare for a four

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category player to achieve. Anyways,
and happened to the Miranda time machine.

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If Walker got to where Miranda is
right now, we'd feel pretty good about

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that. So why not speed up
the process? Is it close? Yes?

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What I advise it probably not,
would I do it? Probably would

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I rather Miranda over Rushman, Spencer
Toorklsin, Marco Luciano, Bobby Witt or

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Jasin Dominguez. No way, I'm
not that crazy. Would I rather him

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over Justin Fascu, Pedro Leone,
Tristan Cassis, Herbert Perez, Josh Young,

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Jordan Grossens, Nick Gonzales, Josh
Lowe, Helio Ramis, Ramos,

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Nick Prato, Michael Bush, Hunter, Bishop yep Am. I nervous about

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saying so with a few of these
guys yet, but only a few.

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Would I rather him over John Kenzie, Noel Or Elvis Martinez, Gabriel Moreno,

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without a doubt over Riley Green.
No, but I would admire anyone

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with the intestinal fortitude to do so
over Tyler Saderstrom, Zach Vien, Robert

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Hassel, Francisco Alvarez. I said, come on, how people can compare

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these things? Could mind you?
These were guys just coming out of high

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school or teenagers at the time.
It's beyond my brain. But I'll say

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a few of them. I was
really nervous when I wrote that, Matt,

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because this was the first time that
I ever like we talked about a

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few episodes was kind of thing thinking
that this guy way outside of the top

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one hundred was a better gamble than
a lot of top one hundreds written now,

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I think some of those I'd much
rather have Miranda over some of them

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I might have missed a little bit, like Gabriel Moreno or Tristan Cassas.

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But I wanted to say I wanted
to bring that up because it falls in

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line a little bit with their conversation
from a few weeks ago. And I

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think it gives some perspective too,
with some of these players that were going

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to talk about how do you evaluate
how do you value a guy who's in

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the bigs getting an opportunity versus the
top one hundred prospect, Like a lot

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of those names aren't really doing much
for us two and a half years later

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and have fallen way out of favor. Right, Maybe a lot of those

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names are though I would say either
currently performing or the now fantasy studs.

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Right. You know, this is
in the same context of Bobby Witt Junior

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and even Jordan Walker, who started
the comparison with Jordan Roker just had his

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rookie year and it was better than
Miranda's best season. He's backed up.

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I think some of that performance too. So I would say, like a

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lot of the guys that you listed, even in that second section of ones

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that you would definitely take him over, or or that you wouldn't recommend it,

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but you probably personally would would try
to make that bet. That's a

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set of players that I think was
pretty solid, Like there's quite quite a

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lot of guys that still have a
lot of dynasty value in there. Right

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Well, the guy the guys that
I said that I would take him over

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were Fascu, Pedro, Leon,
Tristan Cassas. That's a mess. I

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don't like that one. Hebberd Perez. So you know, Fascu Leone Perez.

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I'm fine with Miranda over him right
now. Josh On Nah, not

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a good call. Jordan Gross gross
hands, Yeah, I'm not interested.

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Nick Gonzalez, not interested. Josh
Low, We'll see Helio Ramos, No

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thanks, Nick Prato, no thanks, Michael Bush, we'll see Hunter Bishop

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No, John Kenzie Noel Yeah,
yeah, Brelds Martinez na Mareno. That

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was a bad call my part.
But so it's like maybe half of that

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list who were to your point,
those were hot names in twenty twenty one

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is a top one hundred, top
fifty guys, right right, which one

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speaks to I think we should have
a little bit of humility even when we

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talk about the top guys, like
we aren't sure who's gonna like be an

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actual performer for fantasy teams. Again, separating that from your true on field

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talent where defense matters and all of
that stuff. That's still a pretty good

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hit rate of like about half of
those guys. I think you could say

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Miranda has already returned more value than
some of those are ever likely to.

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And I think you know, the
part that I'm interested in is like what

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is it that you still see?
Because I also have some opinions about Miranda,

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But I'm curious what it is you
still see in kind of backing your

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your horse still a couple of years
down the line. I just I've watched

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a lot of Miranda, So this
isn't like I don't have like number weighing

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stuff. Well, he doesn't strike
out a lot, he makes a lot

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of contact. He makes a lot
of good contact. I mean, I'm

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just talking about his career. I'm
not talking about twenty twenty three per se.

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He's got power into all fields,
just a very quality bet. I

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think there's a combination of hit and
contact and power that you don't see every

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day. If you look at his
rookie year, Like I was pretty happy

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with his rookie year. He didn't
start off blazing, but had he had

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a really hot six weeks from like
August or like halfway through July to end

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of August or something of that.
Then he tailed off a little bit.

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You look at his rookie year numbers. I don't think there's any any problems

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with that. I think a fairly
popular, you know, sort of corner

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infield gamble, bench bat and redraft
after last year. But of course it

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didn't go didn't go well in twenty
twenty three. But like I was saying,

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I think that's I'm calling it just
kind of a waste year. I

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think injury was a big part of
that. Like I said, I tried

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to dig around and find, you
know, some things that pitchers may have

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adjusted towards him, and I couldn't
really come up with anything. All in

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all, I think it was just
he just didn't hit the ball as hard.

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He didn't make his quality of contact. Even I did break down and

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look at like you know, meatballs
in the middle of the zone. He's

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a fantastic first ball fastball hitter.
If you're pitching against him, you don't

219
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you don't want to miss on a
fastball the first pitch, because he will

220
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destroy it more times than that.
And he wasn't last year. So I

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don't know how to explain that.
I can't explain that I'd be buying Miranda

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if I could, if I didn't
already have him everywhere. But of course

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your format matters. But what do
you what do you got in mat What

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are your Miranda opinions? He's the
kind of bat that I generally am drawn

225
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to, both for some of the
reasons that you said, Like he doesn't

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strike out very often, hits the
ball reasonably hard, and has the sort

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of profile that I think sometimes can
get under valued, sort of like Ty

228
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France before he became a popular breakout
pick or Mark Canna, you know,

229
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without the without the smidge of speed, and not quite as good an OBP,

230
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but similar in that a little bit
undervalued for what he does, which

231
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is make contact well, hit the
ball pretty hard. And the other thing

232
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that I like is that he's generally
a pretty good his spray his launch angles

233
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are good, like he does a
pretty good job keeping the ball off the

234
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ground, hitting line drives like he's
an over twenty percent guy at every stop

235
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I think that he's ever been at
and he'll hit some fly balls, and

236
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I like that both aesthetically. I
think that kind of hitter is fun to

237
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watch. It was certainly the kind
of hitter that I aspired to be when

238
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I played, And I like that. And I'm with you that a lot

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of his performance last year was you
can chalk it up to injury, a

240
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rough year that compounded on itself.
My concern is that his path to playing

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time is going to be hard.
Yeah, they just got rid of Polanco,

242
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but he's not suiting up at second
base. He's first base, third

243
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base only probably. I think at
third base they've got some guy named Royce

244
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Lewis who decided that he's going to
make good on his prospect pedigree last year,

245
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and I'm not sure that there's going
to be a ton of at bats

246
00:17:33.519 --> 00:17:37.759
to go around here now. Also, I think the upside here is a

247
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little bit limited. He hits the
ball pretty hard, but it's not an

248
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exit velocity monster who's just playing time
away from popping thirty homers like his upside,

249
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you know, really good year is
probably going to be a twenty homer

250
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bat and at the corners like that's
tough to stomach. I think I take

251
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the over well, I mean,
health was standing. I think you can

252
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pop more home runs than twenty.
I don't know. I mean the only

253
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time that he had that kind of
pace was in twenty twenty one, and

254
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looking kind of under the hood,
his homer to flyball ratio was astronomical,

255
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something like that. Only someone like
Aaron Judge could actually sixteen or Shoheo Tani

256
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who both hits the ball really freaking
hard and hits the ball in the air.

257
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That's not Miranda. Most of the
time, his home run to flyball

258
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ratio is below ten percent, So
I think even ten percent is probably generous

259
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for him. And so you just
do some math and like, he's got

260
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to hit a lot of fly balls, more than he ever has. What

261
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was his fall his rookie year eleven
percent? What was it the year before?

262
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Thirty percent? Okay, that's a
lot, so I mean, and

263
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he also had some babeb fortune in
his rookie year. Again, I think

264
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he probably earned some of that certainly
not to the extent that he had.

265
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He was running like three sixty three
seventy babbups in his twenty twenty one year

266
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at double A and HI, so
those are like pretty high and you obviously

267
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should progress those. And he was
only a little bit on the positive side

268
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of the babet monster for his rookie
year and then was obviously way on the

269
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other side last year. But it
also came with his highest ground ball rates

270
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ever. So I think that actually
points to what you were saying, that

271
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maybe he is or was injured and
that was impacting him and so something about

272
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his swing change in twenty twenty three. So I expect a bounce back personally,

273
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Like I'm with you on that.
I just think the bounce back looks

274
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like a one oh five ish WRC
plus at maybe third, maybe some first

275
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in limited playing time. And that's
that's hard for me to be like really

276
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excited about it. With the caveat
that, if say Roy Lewis gets hurt,

277
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do they play Miranda there? Do
they decide brooks Lee is ready?

278
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But I've also got Kyle Farmer who
can play decent defense, and I don't

279
00:19:53.920 --> 00:19:57.200
know what they decide to do as
far as giving at bats, so he's

280
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not like an injury away from four
hundred plate appearances in the second latter two

281
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thirds of the year. So that's
the other part. That's like a lot

282
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of these guys that we you know, shared some names, like they're fun

283
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ones that if an injury happens in
front of him, maybe something happens.

284
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But this is one that's like,
I'm not sure the upside on it,

285
00:20:17.160 --> 00:20:21.839
you know. Yeah, that's frir, Like I understand his NFBC ADP,

286
00:20:22.240 --> 00:20:23.960
Like that makes sense, you know. I got to my guy, Luke

287
00:20:25.000 --> 00:20:27.400
plays a lot of that format,
and I always ask him about the ends

288
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of his drafts. He's told me, like his last pick, like take

289
00:20:30.519 --> 00:20:33.960
someone who just might be, you
know, someone who gets hot in camp

290
00:20:34.079 --> 00:20:38.119
or might get some run right away, because you want somebody that you're gonna

291
00:20:38.200 --> 00:20:42.000
drop in something like that for me, or if you are in a thirty

292
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team or and like I think Miranda
is a fantastic bench bat. But moving

293
00:20:47.240 --> 00:20:51.400
on from him, let's let's get
let's get into some maybe even more questionable

294
00:20:51.480 --> 00:20:56.079
folks. What do you got?
Man came about this a little bit differently

295
00:20:56.200 --> 00:21:00.559
at least to start with, But
I have a one, and I think

296
00:21:00.640 --> 00:21:03.839
might be an interesting segue from talking
about Miranda, because this is just,

297
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I think one of the most fascinating
players in all of baseball, and his

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00:21:08.400 --> 00:21:17.839
NFBC Average Draft Physician rank is just
eight seven picks behind Miranda's. It's the

299
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Big Masher Joey g mister Gallo newly
of your Washington Nationals, and Joey Gallo

300
00:21:26.279 --> 00:21:32.440
has been a fascinating case for me
four years. The three true outcome poster

301
00:21:32.559 --> 00:21:34.960
boy. The man strikes out,
walks, or hits a home run in

302
00:21:36.240 --> 00:21:41.240
basically every bat that he does.
He has, I believe, on multiple

303
00:21:41.279 --> 00:21:45.160
occasions, hit more home runs than
he's hit singles in a year. One

304
00:21:45.440 --> 00:21:49.119
two oh three years he has had
more home runs than he's had singles,

305
00:21:49.160 --> 00:21:55.119
and two other years he was off
by two. So the man is just

306
00:21:55.279 --> 00:22:00.319
a monster. His eggs and velos
are through the roof. He has probably

307
00:22:00.440 --> 00:22:04.480
the highest raw and game power that
you can give in a game because he

308
00:22:04.599 --> 00:22:08.799
sells out for fly balls and he
just absolutely scalds the ball when he makes

309
00:22:08.839 --> 00:22:12.920
contact. But one part of the
three true outcomes is strikeouts, and our

310
00:22:12.920 --> 00:22:18.960
boy Joey is the strikeout king.
It also walks a lot he's got a

311
00:22:18.960 --> 00:22:22.640
pretty good eye. His problems run
from being able to make contact. It's

312
00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:26.440
not like he's chasing a ton.
Even in his bad years, he's still

313
00:22:26.519 --> 00:22:30.960
walking thirteen percent of the time,
just a hair under. And in his

314
00:22:30.240 --> 00:22:36.279
good years he put up some crazy
walk rates, like in the Juan Soto

315
00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:40.880
level eighteen percent, seventeen and a
half percent, sixteen point seven percent,

316
00:22:41.000 --> 00:22:45.000
and even last year when even I
couldn't really defend the season that he had

317
00:22:45.079 --> 00:22:49.519
very well, he walked fourteen point
five percent of the time. So there's

318
00:22:49.799 --> 00:22:56.279
a compelling eye here and incredible power
that he gets to, which like I'm

319
00:22:56.359 --> 00:23:00.599
a big preacher of that, Like
have you smoked the but you hit it

320
00:23:00.599 --> 00:23:02.960
into the ground? I kind of
don't care, Like, all right,

321
00:23:03.240 --> 00:23:07.079
that's it doesn't do much for you
unless you have something else to bring to

322
00:23:07.119 --> 00:23:11.480
the table. But Gallo is sort
of the platonic ideal of the new analytic

323
00:23:11.599 --> 00:23:15.960
driven OBP and power is the way
to go in the game. But he

324
00:23:15.119 --> 00:23:22.000
clearly he shows why it's hard to
make this work at the very very tail

325
00:23:22.200 --> 00:23:26.799
end of the bad part of the
strikeout spectrum, because ah Man, the

326
00:23:26.920 --> 00:23:30.440
last four years have not been very
good, starting in twenty twenty, he

327
00:23:30.519 --> 00:23:36.519
ran an eighty four WRC plus.
That's not that good for corner outfield or

328
00:23:36.799 --> 00:23:40.720
he plays decent defense, but for
our sake, like if you're hitting one

329
00:23:40.920 --> 00:23:45.240
eighty one, that's not going to
play in an NFBC format. His next

330
00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:48.880
year, twenty twenty one, he
had that half of a season that was

331
00:23:48.960 --> 00:23:52.920
great for Texas, and then he
got traded to the Yankees and was bad

332
00:23:52.000 --> 00:23:56.400
for the rest of that the way. He then was with the Yankees again

333
00:23:56.799 --> 00:24:02.599
for the first half of twenty twenty
two and an eighty six WRC plush again

334
00:24:02.640 --> 00:24:06.319
with a one sixty batting average,
and then last year it was barely better

335
00:24:06.359 --> 00:24:11.400
at a one seventy seven batting average. So batting average just sink terrible.

336
00:24:11.519 --> 00:24:17.680
But I like picks like this late
in a draft because it is bankable power.

337
00:24:18.000 --> 00:24:22.119
You want sort of high variants late
in a draft like this so that

338
00:24:22.319 --> 00:24:26.200
ross we can make some moves.
If your team had an injury to one

339
00:24:26.200 --> 00:24:30.240
of your studs that you like,
you're an Austin Riley gets hurt and he

340
00:24:30.359 --> 00:24:33.400
was going to be your path to
forty homers out of your corner slot or

341
00:24:33.480 --> 00:24:37.599
your third base slot, and he's
hurt for part of the year, you're

342
00:24:37.640 --> 00:24:40.839
missing that production that you kind of
banked and you've built your team around.

343
00:24:40.960 --> 00:24:45.160
So having guys at the ends of
the drafts that index towards a particular skill

344
00:24:45.880 --> 00:24:51.119
is undervalued, I think in a
lot of these ways. And Joey Gallo,

345
00:24:51.480 --> 00:24:56.240
like at picks average draft pick ranks
six ZHO four. That's a guy

346
00:24:56.319 --> 00:25:00.519
that you know you're gonna be able
to plug in at your util slot or

347
00:25:00.839 --> 00:25:03.839
in favorable matchups and make up the
at least some of the home runs that

348
00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:08.119
you might have expected to deal with
in losing an Austin Riley. Gallo definitely

349
00:25:08.160 --> 00:25:11.519
not a prospect, not even a
post type sleeper at this point. He's

350
00:25:11.720 --> 00:25:18.279
years removed from the promise that he
showed early on. He's probably not getting

351
00:25:18.279 --> 00:25:22.359
the full playing time in Washington,
but I think he's going to play kind

352
00:25:22.359 --> 00:25:27.839
of a lot and that should lead
to some gaudy home run in RBI totals,

353
00:25:29.279 --> 00:25:32.920
just know that it's going to come
with a batting average sink. So

354
00:25:33.200 --> 00:25:37.279
Joey Gallo, I think is one
that he's still a little bit I can't

355
00:25:37.279 --> 00:25:40.759
personally quit him, Like I keep
coming back to this as a guy that

356
00:25:40.799 --> 00:25:42.640
I want on my bench in a
deeper league, a guy that I might

357
00:25:42.720 --> 00:25:47.720
play in a power focus league and
just wear the striker. He's it.

358
00:25:47.920 --> 00:25:51.240
I think he's a great if you're
in a daily league, A great bench

359
00:25:51.279 --> 00:25:53.400
guy, right, yep. He
always playing today. It gets me a

360
00:25:53.400 --> 00:25:56.279
home run. I mean that can
go a long way, and that's a

361
00:25:56.319 --> 00:26:00.559
lot like the next guy that I
was going to talk about it think it

362
00:26:00.599 --> 00:26:03.640
could be similar. But before we
move on, have you ever had the

363
00:26:03.640 --> 00:26:07.880
pleasure of owning Joey Gallo? I
don't believe so, No, Yeah,

364
00:26:07.920 --> 00:26:11.640
it is. It is a I
have four years, like I just he's

365
00:26:11.720 --> 00:26:14.640
always like a last pick in the
draft, like I'm going to shore up

366
00:26:14.640 --> 00:26:18.000
my homers because you know, runs, homers, and RBI are the highest

367
00:26:18.000 --> 00:26:25.200
correlated of the Rodo categories. And
so I like that and some balls or

368
00:26:25.240 --> 00:26:27.519
something like that. I think it's
the best balls I've taken them. Yeah,

369
00:26:27.839 --> 00:26:30.920
which I think he's nice for that
format. Yeah, for sure.

370
00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:36.000
And a couple of the leagues that
I plan really reward power. Even in

371
00:26:36.079 --> 00:26:40.359
his crappy years, he's still an
above replacement level guy. But I don't

372
00:26:40.359 --> 00:26:44.160
know. I'm super curious to see
how it goes in Washington. It's not

373
00:26:44.200 --> 00:26:45.799
like Minnesota is a bad place for
him. I don't think, like it's

374
00:26:45.799 --> 00:26:48.640
not like the park is really dependent
on him, But it's more about playing

375
00:26:48.680 --> 00:26:53.880
time and can he rain in the
strikeouts down to like thirty six percent instead

376
00:26:53.880 --> 00:26:57.279
of forty one percent. I don't
know, we'll see. I love him,

377
00:26:57.400 --> 00:27:00.880
I wish nothing the best, And
I just as a side note,

378
00:27:00.960 --> 00:27:07.279
I really appreciated his honest answers and
thoughtful self assessment of his time in New

379
00:27:07.359 --> 00:27:11.480
York, Like he owned up that
it sucked getting booed and he hated the

380
00:27:11.640 --> 00:27:15.039
feeling of not being able to perform
for the Yankees, and I just I

381
00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:18.839
appreciate that about a guy that'll he'll
admit the challenges and own up to him

382
00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:25.039
and show some emotion about it.
I've sort of rooted for an extra since

383
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:27.680
then. And also I think I've
had him on a team for like six

384
00:27:27.799 --> 00:27:30.519
years. So yeah, this guy, this next guy I want to talk

385
00:27:30.519 --> 00:27:37.039
about. There's there's some similarity in
that, Like Emmanuel Valdez is like a

386
00:27:37.480 --> 00:27:44.160
he's like a home run specialist.
But he was our twenty twenty two Going

387
00:27:44.160 --> 00:27:48.319
into twenty twenty two, Astros B
side selection obviously he's with the Red Sox

388
00:27:48.400 --> 00:27:52.920
now also right in the same range, like in between Miranda and Gallo Is

389
00:27:52.079 --> 00:27:59.880
and Memmo. ADP rank for mine
is just this last month. I don't

390
00:27:59.880 --> 00:28:03.759
know if you're looking at total,
just this last month, he's ADP is

391
00:28:03.799 --> 00:28:07.160
six eighty seven with a minpick of
four thirty eight and a max pick of

392
00:28:07.200 --> 00:28:12.480
seven forty one. And he's rostered
in nineteen percent of fan tracks. Leagues

393
00:28:12.839 --> 00:28:21.359
rostered less than Joel Incespides, DJ
Hers, Jefferson, Rojas, Bedel Bruhan,

394
00:28:22.039 --> 00:28:26.200
Gen Carlos, Laura Connor, Prilot, Eric Brown, Lonnie White,

395
00:28:26.440 --> 00:28:36.640
and then future White Sox superstar Jacob
Gonzales. By the way, did you

396
00:28:36.720 --> 00:28:40.920
see how dirty the White Sox did
Jacob Gonzalez? Oh yeah, dude,

397
00:28:40.960 --> 00:28:45.240
what is what was that was so
bad? Like I think he's for the

398
00:28:45.359 --> 00:28:49.119
trolling. I don't know. Somebody
must have gone rogue because they had to

399
00:28:49.200 --> 00:28:53.400
have known how bad that looked.
Yeah, that was brutal. It's almost

400
00:28:53.480 --> 00:28:57.240
it's almost like they want to feed
the hate. If you're listening, you

401
00:28:57.240 --> 00:29:03.039
haven't seen it. The White Sox
Twitter account posted like the future is coming

402
00:29:03.160 --> 00:29:06.799
or like all this stuff, and
then Jacob gonzeal and like his horrible stats

403
00:29:06.799 --> 00:29:11.039
from from last year and and a
video of him grounding out to second.

404
00:29:11.119 --> 00:29:14.519
Yeah, like, yeah, that
was the well, it was an RBI.

405
00:29:14.759 --> 00:29:18.720
It was an RBI, Matt.
But AnyWho, So and Manuel Valdez,

406
00:29:18.759 --> 00:29:21.799
he debuted last year. He got
in one hundred and forty nine played

407
00:29:21.839 --> 00:29:26.519
appearances, so he just barely graduated
prospect status. The role for this year

408
00:29:26.880 --> 00:29:30.039
is up in the air, right
but I would say he's probably the way

409
00:29:30.079 --> 00:29:33.400
that it sits right now. I
think at worst, he's probably their tenth

410
00:29:33.480 --> 00:29:37.680
bat. Von Grissom, another B
sider back in the day, is gonna

411
00:29:37.839 --> 00:29:41.039
probably play second. I think Valdez
could be a great DH. He'll probably

412
00:29:41.079 --> 00:29:45.559
slot Yoshida in a DHA fair amount
too, So that means Whiler a Bray

413
00:29:45.599 --> 00:29:48.640
you the other astra that came over
in that trade is gonna play it.

414
00:29:48.680 --> 00:29:53.440
We'll see doll back maybe. I
think they'll probably rotate that that slot.

415
00:29:53.480 --> 00:29:56.160
But I do think Valdez gets a
bunch of those at bats for sure.

416
00:29:56.240 --> 00:30:00.880
Yeah, I think there's some PLAYD
appearances coming for bell Does this year.

417
00:30:00.920 --> 00:30:03.839
One hundred and forty nine played appearances. Last year, he had six home

418
00:30:03.920 --> 00:30:07.759
runs and he's still five bases last
year, Like coming up in the minors,

419
00:30:07.799 --> 00:30:11.960
he was never a big base stealer. Five or six on a year

420
00:30:11.240 --> 00:30:17.240
was was probably his max. He
doesn't walk too much five point four percent.

421
00:30:18.559 --> 00:30:21.720
He strike struck out twenty five percent
of the time, which I think

422
00:30:21.759 --> 00:30:23.400
that was pretty close to his minor
league strikeout. Right. Yeah, he

423
00:30:23.559 --> 00:30:27.839
was like twenty to twenty two percent
in the uppers, which is fine,

424
00:30:27.920 --> 00:30:33.119
especially if you're going to specialize in
hitting home runs like our guy does here.

425
00:30:33.440 --> 00:30:37.200
I mean he was he was above
average MLB production one o two WRC

426
00:30:37.359 --> 00:30:41.039
plus. Now that this is wild
to me, and this is a great

427
00:30:41.079 --> 00:30:45.200
example of how there could be lies
and stats and metrics. What do you

428
00:30:45.240 --> 00:30:52.119
think Bell does? His average exit
velocity was last year? Last year?

429
00:30:52.160 --> 00:30:56.240
I'm gonna say eighty seven eighty seven
and a half, oh, which is

430
00:30:56.319 --> 00:31:00.359
pretty yes, which is yeah,
pretty good? Guess which is U twenty

431
00:31:00.400 --> 00:31:03.720
eighth percentile? Right? Not great? Not great? What do you think

432
00:31:03.839 --> 00:31:11.480
is max CD was one thirteen one
oh seven point one ninth percentile? Now,

433
00:31:11.720 --> 00:31:17.200
what do you think is flyball exivelocity? Was your tone makes me think

434
00:31:17.240 --> 00:31:23.599
it's lower one o two flyball exivelocity
was ninety one point eight, which is

435
00:31:25.079 --> 00:31:30.279
ninety one, which is ninety one
percentile. Then so he goes, yeah,

436
00:31:30.880 --> 00:31:33.759
his average is twenty eighth percentile,
his max is ninth percentile. But

437
00:31:33.799 --> 00:31:37.839
when he hits it in the air, he hits it harder than ninety one

438
00:31:37.839 --> 00:31:41.359
percent of hitters. It's interesting,
right, I don't know if any other

439
00:31:41.440 --> 00:31:44.599
hitters to do that. I tried
to look for some, but I didn't

440
00:31:44.599 --> 00:31:48.079
really see anything comparable to that.
Interesting what the minor leagues. He came

441
00:31:48.119 --> 00:31:53.000
to be the mL or the Astros
B side because he led their leather organization

442
00:31:53.079 --> 00:31:56.720
in home runs, and you know
classic Astros farm system, they didn't have

443
00:31:56.720 --> 00:32:01.920
any good prospects. Right. He
hit twenty seven home runs between high and

444
00:32:01.960 --> 00:32:05.839
Double A in twenty twenty one.
He hits the ball really hard when he

445
00:32:05.920 --> 00:32:07.160
hits it in the air, right, But of course, bit of the

446
00:32:07.160 --> 00:32:10.440
bugaboo is that he hit the ball
on the ground too much, But that

447
00:32:10.680 --> 00:32:15.119
historically hasn't really been the case for
him. In the uppers, it was

448
00:32:15.160 --> 00:32:19.440
like thirty two to thirty five percent
ground ball, right, which is great.

449
00:32:19.599 --> 00:32:22.880
He could probably pull the ball a
bit more, at least according to

450
00:32:22.039 --> 00:32:25.559
his Triple A and Double a numbers, but end of the day, Emmanuel

451
00:32:25.640 --> 00:32:31.359
Veldez, I think there's still a
lot to like about him offensively, of

452
00:32:31.400 --> 00:32:37.119
course, defensively having a home getting
full run very much in question. But

453
00:32:37.279 --> 00:32:40.640
this sort of tier of player,
this demographic, this lack of popularity,

454
00:32:40.759 --> 00:32:45.039
Like, I think there's still some
meat on the bone here, I think,

455
00:32:45.160 --> 00:32:47.319
And like I said, I think
it's super interesting. Like daily player.

456
00:32:47.319 --> 00:32:52.799
Imagine he'd be cheap in dfs or
whatever, which I want to play

457
00:32:52.839 --> 00:32:54.599
more of, but I just don't
have don't have the time. I have

458
00:32:54.720 --> 00:32:58.880
never never been able to get into
dfs personally. I do like this pick.

459
00:32:58.920 --> 00:33:02.359
I've been in this fan as well, might be because of you,

460
00:33:02.720 --> 00:33:07.880
like originally highlighting him in the astrosystem. He I do think last year was

461
00:33:07.920 --> 00:33:13.079
a bit of an anomaly on his
batted ball profile in his first taste of

462
00:33:13.400 --> 00:33:15.480
MLB, and he still was a
league average bat. I think there's a

463
00:33:15.519 --> 00:33:22.200
little more upside in there. It's
not crazy to see him getting a fair

464
00:33:22.240 --> 00:33:24.240
amount of playing time this year,
whether he goes on a heater and they

465
00:33:24.279 --> 00:33:30.000
plug him into DH more often,
an injury in their outfield and maybe they

466
00:33:30.039 --> 00:33:34.079
shuffle around some of those guys in
Yoshida goes back to playing more left field.

467
00:33:34.559 --> 00:33:37.000
I could see that happening. There's
the thing I like about this one

468
00:33:37.119 --> 00:33:40.680
is that I think there are a
lot of paths to seeing three hundred,

469
00:33:40.720 --> 00:33:45.680
four hundred, five hundred played appearances
here, and especially if the Red Sox

470
00:33:45.839 --> 00:33:50.480
really as they kind of seem to
be the worst team in the AL East,

471
00:33:50.519 --> 00:33:52.480
maybe things start to go south for
them and they do want to see

472
00:33:52.480 --> 00:33:57.559
what all their young guys have as
they sell off the like Trevor Story or

473
00:33:57.640 --> 00:34:00.039
somebody else, you know, like
the previous adminished tration brought in. So

474
00:34:00.279 --> 00:34:05.839
I like this one a lot.
I think that this is a sneaky upside

475
00:34:05.839 --> 00:34:09.000
play is pretty hard to find this
late in a draft. Just some of

476
00:34:09.039 --> 00:34:13.320
the batted ball stuff. There's a
lot more to like than to dislike.

477
00:34:13.519 --> 00:34:17.079
Solid contact percentage, He's ninety first
percentile barrel percentage, she was sixty ninth

478
00:34:17.079 --> 00:34:21.679
percentile. It's funny. I always
kind of thought found him to be kind

479
00:34:21.679 --> 00:34:25.119
of aggressive watching him coming up in
the miners, and his swing percentage is

480
00:34:25.159 --> 00:34:30.280
below twenty eight percentile below MLB average. Doesn't swing out of the zone too

481
00:34:30.360 --> 00:34:32.920
much thirty one point two percent.
I don't know there's nothing here that like

482
00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:37.679
glares to me red flags that like
other than the you know, hit the

483
00:34:37.679 --> 00:34:39.159
ball on the ground too much,
which, like we said, hasn't been

484
00:34:39.280 --> 00:34:44.000
historically. So yeah, and still
and again that's something that we've talked about

485
00:34:44.039 --> 00:34:46.639
before, but that is a pretty
sticky skill. So when you see one

486
00:34:46.719 --> 00:34:52.519
season that is out of alignment of
what he's done at every stop before that,

487
00:34:52.639 --> 00:34:54.400
I mean, what was his grundball
rate last year, like ten percent

488
00:34:54.480 --> 00:34:58.960
higher than it had been at basically
any stop before that, that's weird.

489
00:34:59.079 --> 00:35:01.760
Like that doesn't happen, and very
often so when it does, like you

490
00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:07.400
might mentally adjust back and say,
like I think maybe he's a thirty nine

491
00:35:07.440 --> 00:35:10.400
percent thirty eight percent ground ball guy, and with the kind of power that

492
00:35:10.480 --> 00:35:15.519
he does display, especially on fly
balls, like you could dream on the

493
00:35:15.639 --> 00:35:19.000
twenty five homers if he had full
playing time. So I love this one.

494
00:35:19.039 --> 00:35:21.199
This is a great pick. And
like, I don't know if you

495
00:35:21.239 --> 00:35:22.719
know much about this metric, Matt, but I'm trying to learn a little

496
00:35:22.719 --> 00:35:27.440
bit more. But ideal plate appearance. What an ideal plate appearance is,

497
00:35:27.719 --> 00:35:32.159
yeah, Matt, So an ideal
plate appearance is barrels plus solid solid contact

498
00:35:32.199 --> 00:35:38.159
plus flares and burners divided by total
pas. I'd be lying of as I

499
00:35:38.360 --> 00:35:44.440
totally wrap my head around that.
But he was eightieth percentile in his small

500
00:35:44.559 --> 00:35:49.079
well sample size, so at point
being that that's from his major league sample.

501
00:35:49.280 --> 00:35:51.559
Yeah, yeah, oh interesting,
Okay, this is a guy who's

502
00:35:51.599 --> 00:35:54.360
not a prospect anymore, was never
a very popular prospect, but I think

503
00:35:54.880 --> 00:36:00.199
MLB opportunity there for him and some
fantasy appeal. I like it. Well,

504
00:36:00.239 --> 00:36:05.800
it just so happens. I didn't
even look at the ADP the NFBC

505
00:36:05.920 --> 00:36:09.119
ADP sheet when I first was doing
this exercise, but it just so happens

506
00:36:09.159 --> 00:36:14.000
that this is another guy that is
right in this same range, just a

507
00:36:14.079 --> 00:36:17.800
few picks down from in my mal
Valdez is my next guy that I wanted

508
00:36:17.840 --> 00:36:22.000
to talk about. Twenty twenty one, I was just starting to get into

509
00:36:22.400 --> 00:36:28.440
the deep dynasty leagues. I had
played keeper leagues for years and redraft leagues

510
00:36:28.440 --> 00:36:31.639
for years, but it was my
first foray into a deep dynasty league,

511
00:36:31.679 --> 00:36:37.440
and one of my main rivals that
year in this startup league that we did

512
00:36:37.800 --> 00:36:39.880
happened to draft a guy that at
the time I had never heard of.

513
00:36:40.159 --> 00:36:45.639
I don't think he was ever on
any prospect lists of note, nobody was

514
00:36:45.719 --> 00:36:49.599
really that intrigued. He played for
a team that wasn't on the up and

515
00:36:49.679 --> 00:36:53.480
up, especially at the time right
after the coronavirus pandemic had wiped out a

516
00:36:53.599 --> 00:36:58.719
bunch of the minor league seasons at
twenty twenty and delayed in twenty one.

517
00:36:59.039 --> 00:37:01.800
This guy just kind of came out
of nowhere to me, appeared and then

518
00:37:02.000 --> 00:37:08.159
was my nemesis. Like he just
kept performing and kept pushing my dynasty team

519
00:37:08.239 --> 00:37:13.039
for my main rival in my division. His name's a Kiel Badou. That

520
00:37:13.119 --> 00:37:19.199
twenty twenty one season, his rookie
year was really phenomenal. Hit two fifty

521
00:37:19.280 --> 00:37:22.119
nine, three thirty four, thirty
six good for a one ow eight WRC

522
00:37:22.239 --> 00:37:28.199
plus that again came out of nowhere
for Detroit, hit thirteen homers and had

523
00:37:28.239 --> 00:37:32.920
eighteen steals. The reason that this
particularly galled me was this is the kind

524
00:37:32.920 --> 00:37:38.679
of production that I love. My
favorite builds for roto leagues is to have

525
00:37:39.199 --> 00:37:45.199
most of your guys be pretty good
at everything, So like your twenty homer

526
00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:51.960
ten steel bats, that's like my
whole rosters usually because those balanced category productions

527
00:37:52.079 --> 00:37:57.199
a provide you a good floor in
all of the categories and you can see

528
00:37:57.480 --> 00:38:01.119
whose performance over and under who's over
and under performing, and then you can

529
00:38:01.119 --> 00:38:07.079
plug in later in the season the
sort of specialist bats like Joey Gallop like

530
00:38:07.119 --> 00:38:09.960
I talked about before, and bad
was doing that. He was doing providing

531
00:38:10.079 --> 00:38:15.079
like second round value and if you
pro rated it out to a full season

532
00:38:15.280 --> 00:38:19.559
instead of his four hundred and sixty
one played appearances that year. So I

533
00:38:19.639 --> 00:38:22.320
was like, this guy's magic.
I need him, I want him,

534
00:38:22.360 --> 00:38:25.719
I gotta have him. So I
drafted him in a like shallow keeper league

535
00:38:25.719 --> 00:38:29.000
that I'd had the next year,
thinking he was gonna be a late round

536
00:38:29.079 --> 00:38:31.679
play that was gonna he wasn't probably
gonna be quite as good as he was

537
00:38:31.719 --> 00:38:37.719
before, and it all credited.
He went from a one o eight WRC

538
00:38:37.800 --> 00:38:42.679
plus all the way down to sixty
four, two oh four, two eighty

539
00:38:42.760 --> 00:38:45.920
nine, two sixty nine. The
power dried up, he got caught a

540
00:38:45.960 --> 00:38:50.840
lot more on the bases, and
it was just not pretty top to bottom.

541
00:38:51.039 --> 00:38:53.480
And then last year was a lot
of the same. They still gave

542
00:38:53.559 --> 00:38:57.159
him quite a bit of run and
he was better, but he was still

543
00:38:57.199 --> 00:39:00.679
significantly below average, to the tune
of eleven homers. And fourteen steels still

544
00:39:00.760 --> 00:39:07.559
some value, balanced categorical value,
but not that magic flash in the pan

545
00:39:07.920 --> 00:39:09.719
of his rookie year. And I'm
here to tell you I'm not giving up.

546
00:39:10.039 --> 00:39:15.840
I know the outfield situation in Detroit
is a little bit crowded, and

547
00:39:15.880 --> 00:39:19.280
I think he's not even projected to
be on their opening day twenty five man

548
00:39:19.599 --> 00:39:22.599
roster. He still has options,
and he's in the minor leagues. Obviously

549
00:39:22.599 --> 00:39:28.719
has blown past his prospect eligibility,
but he's still just twenty five this coming

550
00:39:28.760 --> 00:39:32.559
season. I still believe there's balanced
category production in here when he plays,

551
00:39:32.800 --> 00:39:37.840
and he's a good defender too,
so I don't think they would hesitate to

552
00:39:37.920 --> 00:39:43.280
bring him up to plug a hole
for injury, whether that's Riley Green or

553
00:39:43.400 --> 00:39:46.960
Parker Meadows. He can play center
field still carry Carpenter Mark Can, I

554
00:39:47.000 --> 00:39:52.519
think is their everyday left fielder right
now. And Mark is a really versatile

555
00:39:52.519 --> 00:39:55.679
player, so he can move around
as well. So I see a world

556
00:39:55.760 --> 00:40:00.559
where maybe the second half of the
year comes and do gets called up to

557
00:40:00.599 --> 00:40:05.920
play center field, because maybe Parker
Meadows doesn't adjust the way that people are

558
00:40:05.960 --> 00:40:10.480
sort of expecting and Badoo is crushing
it in the minors after settling back down

559
00:40:10.519 --> 00:40:15.239
into what I think is a really
really talented player. So I love Badoo

560
00:40:15.599 --> 00:40:20.800
at this draft cost for both the
fact that, like he's a guy that

561
00:40:21.039 --> 00:40:23.599
if there's an injury ahead of him, he might see all of the at

562
00:40:23.639 --> 00:40:28.079
back. It's unlikely that Detroit's going
to go out and like spend a bunch

563
00:40:28.079 --> 00:40:31.000
of prospect capital to plug a hole
in their outfield when they've got Badu sitting

564
00:40:31.000 --> 00:40:36.599
there, who has performed before.
Looking at his production, like the projection

565
00:40:36.719 --> 00:40:39.119
systems are maybe a little bit down
on the batting average, but the speed

566
00:40:39.199 --> 00:40:44.719
is still there. There's still power
there, And I don't think it's crazy

567
00:40:44.760 --> 00:40:50.079
to buy Zips, who's the high
man on the Badoo production this year,

568
00:40:50.159 --> 00:40:53.840
and say that in two thirds playing
time he could have eleven homers, fifteen

569
00:40:54.079 --> 00:41:00.000
or sixteen steals and two forty three
three twenty three, three ninety nine.

570
00:41:00.079 --> 00:41:04.440
I'm triple slash, which for free
basically the very last pick, even in

571
00:41:04.480 --> 00:41:08.239
a really deep redraft. That's that's
pretty nice. So I'm rooting for him

572
00:41:08.239 --> 00:41:12.719
to recapture that flash in the pan. I think he still has the skills

573
00:41:12.719 --> 00:41:15.519
there, the opportunity, even though
it's a not great ballpark to hit in.

574
00:41:15.679 --> 00:41:20.159
I think that bad could seize it. Doesn't he have just like awful

575
00:41:20.199 --> 00:41:23.079
splits. I thought I saw that
once or something. I think they aren't

576
00:41:23.400 --> 00:41:29.119
great, but it's still I don't
know, it's still probably too small a

577
00:41:29.159 --> 00:41:34.800
sample to just like rite it up
as as terrible. Yeah, that's I

578
00:41:34.880 --> 00:41:37.840
think that he's okay at both.
That's that that's my recollection. But again

579
00:41:37.920 --> 00:41:40.280
I don't have that right in front
of me. He was a Rule five

580
00:41:40.320 --> 00:41:43.880
selection, right, yeah, from
the Twins. Yeah, yeah, he

581
00:41:43.960 --> 00:41:46.760
was pretty he was. He came
out smoking. But you're still you're still

582
00:41:46.800 --> 00:41:51.039
believe, you're still bullish. All
right, I'm gonna go with my next

583
00:41:51.079 --> 00:41:55.559
guy. Former another former B side
selection twenty twenty one Giant selection, Casey

584
00:41:55.599 --> 00:41:59.760
Schmidt. Nice Well, of course, debuted last year, got a decent

585
00:41:59.800 --> 00:42:04.239
run, had two hundred and seventy
seven plate appearances in started off pretty hot,

586
00:42:04.320 --> 00:42:07.320
but it did not last. He
hit two oh six with a two

587
00:42:07.320 --> 00:42:13.880
point fifty five on base percentage and
slugged three twenty four for a WRC plus

588
00:42:13.880 --> 00:42:17.000
of fifty nine. Not great,
Bob, but he's yeah, he's not

589
00:42:17.039 --> 00:42:22.639
getting drafted in NFBC. He's rostered
in twenty percent of fan tracks leagues.

590
00:42:22.679 --> 00:42:27.280
Now, Mat, I get how
in some formats what have you, But

591
00:42:27.320 --> 00:42:30.079
there's some things here that are just
just wrong. Man. He's rostered lesson

592
00:42:30.360 --> 00:42:37.920
Eduardo Quintaro. Who is Eduardo Quintaro, some seventeen sixteen year old Dominican nine

593
00:42:38.880 --> 00:42:44.360
Dodgers prospect. I mean, yeah, oh well, then he's gotta be

594
00:42:44.480 --> 00:42:52.639
he's really good. He's rostered less
than Forrest Whitley, Martirollaike. He's rostered

595
00:42:52.679 --> 00:42:58.920
lesson Natro Orbitt, Vivas, Ricardo
Cabrera, Christian Hernandez of the Cubs.

596
00:42:59.199 --> 00:43:05.960
Your guy, Griff McGary, you, Maddox Bruns, Reese Hines, some

597
00:43:06.480 --> 00:43:12.719
pop up cub dude, who Hayden
mcgeary, Jackson, Rutledge, Cole Wilcox.

598
00:43:12.960 --> 00:43:16.079
I'm not with that. Matt Casey
Schmidt is like, so up my

599
00:43:16.199 --> 00:43:20.960
alley as a hitter what I like
to see. But now it's time to

600
00:43:21.079 --> 00:43:24.639
mature a little bit, Casey.
We've got to chase pitches less. Very

601
00:43:25.239 --> 00:43:30.119
ultra aggressive type of hitter, right, You love that kind of guy though

602
00:43:30.840 --> 00:43:35.840
ultra aggressive and doesn't strike out too
much. He just chases too much and

603
00:43:36.239 --> 00:43:40.800
doesn't make quite hard enough of contact
yet s K percentage last year was twenty

604
00:43:40.840 --> 00:43:44.920
three and a half percent. That's
fine, walked four point seven percent.

605
00:43:45.119 --> 00:43:49.920
He hits it in the air sixty
second percentile. Ground balls average forty eight

606
00:43:49.960 --> 00:43:52.920
percentile. He pulls it forty one
point four percent of the time. He

607
00:43:53.000 --> 00:43:58.440
could stand to pull that a little
bit more. But tons of opposite field

608
00:43:59.039 --> 00:44:02.599
eighty five percent tile. He definitely
pulled the ball more in the uppers.

609
00:44:02.639 --> 00:44:07.519
In the miners is out of the
zone. Swing percentage was forty one percent.

610
00:44:07.800 --> 00:44:10.519
That is not great. MLB average
is thirty one percent. He's got

611
00:44:10.559 --> 00:44:16.360
decent contact skills. Just he's ninety
fifth percentile swing percentage. You know who

612
00:44:16.360 --> 00:44:21.880
else is ninety fifth percentile swing percentage
in the majors like Corey Sear is the

613
00:44:22.239 --> 00:44:25.000
really Yeah, his swing percentage was
fifty five point one percent. Wow,

614
00:44:25.119 --> 00:44:30.039
that surprises me. I guess he's
very aggressive in the zone. That's his

615
00:44:30.239 --> 00:44:35.280
calling card, right right, that's
the difference the right. He doesn't swing

616
00:44:35.360 --> 00:44:37.679
out of the zone, right right. You know, we're talking about sort

617
00:44:37.719 --> 00:44:42.800
of my prototype, the an ultimate, and he hits the ball way harder

618
00:44:42.840 --> 00:44:46.159
than than Schmidt. But my point
is this sort of approach the hitting can

619
00:44:46.280 --> 00:44:51.320
can definitely can work. You know, Seedar is one of the best hitters

620
00:44:51.320 --> 00:44:54.360
in baseball if you don't chase right, but you get And it's not that

621
00:44:54.519 --> 00:44:59.239
it's not that it led to an
overwhelming amount of strikeouts for Schmidt. It's

622
00:44:59.280 --> 00:45:02.199
just that it led to a lot
of bad contact. Hm. I'm not

623
00:45:02.199 --> 00:45:07.840
going to write off Schmidt yet after
two hundred and some plate appearances. If

624
00:45:07.880 --> 00:45:10.719
you can get a bit more disciplined, I think. I think there's a

625
00:45:10.800 --> 00:45:15.599
decent amount of pop and average here. We know that he's fantastic defensively,

626
00:45:15.960 --> 00:45:21.880
shouldn't have problem getting every day run
if he can settle down on the chase.

627
00:45:22.320 --> 00:45:25.320
Like Scar strikes out sixteen percent of
the time, Schmid was twenty four

628
00:45:25.360 --> 00:45:29.480
percent of the time. Yeah,
it's an interesting profile, and like you

629
00:45:29.519 --> 00:45:32.920
said, the glove should help provide
at least some floor and I think he's

630
00:45:32.960 --> 00:45:37.440
going to keep getting some opportunities for
sure. You just know, I've got

631
00:45:37.599 --> 00:45:43.559
some skepticism about the ultra aggressive kind
of hitters and major leaguer pitchers are just

632
00:45:43.599 --> 00:45:46.800
so good like they can they can
exploit that. So it's and that's a

633
00:45:46.840 --> 00:45:52.360
tough thing to change. That chase
at the major league level is a tough

634
00:45:52.000 --> 00:45:58.440
ask of any young hitter. It's
true, but Secar got better from when

635
00:45:58.519 --> 00:46:01.159
he was younger too. And I'm
not like Schmidt is the next Seger.

636
00:46:01.320 --> 00:46:10.039
It's just Nate just said Schmidt is
the next Cory Seeger. He chases less

637
00:46:10.360 --> 00:46:15.679
with two strikes, which is nice, but it's still like sixteenth percentile.

638
00:46:16.199 --> 00:46:20.480
But you know, we talked about
like, well, he's twenty four years

639
00:46:20.519 --> 00:46:25.000
old and twenty seven. The magical
twenty seven year old season slash seven hundred

640
00:46:25.039 --> 00:46:29.920
to eight hundred plate appearances is probably
kind of when we can say, all

641
00:46:30.000 --> 00:46:32.199
right, this is this is definitely
who he is. Right, We're not

642
00:46:32.239 --> 00:46:36.679
close to that. So I'm on
board with Schmidt for at least one more

643
00:46:36.719 --> 00:46:39.199
season. All Right, all right, I can see it, dude,

644
00:46:39.599 --> 00:46:45.119
Segars ninety fifth percentile home run,
the fly ball, right, that guy's

645
00:46:45.159 --> 00:46:51.199
goody good. That's the to me
that that's that's my kind of hitter.

646
00:46:51.440 --> 00:46:53.159
Matt. I'm going to see his
strike and I'm going to hit it hard.

647
00:46:53.519 --> 00:46:57.440
I don't I don't care what the
count is. He's a freak.

648
00:46:57.880 --> 00:47:00.280
Yeah, he's so good, Schmidt, Like, are you skilled enough to

649
00:47:00.320 --> 00:47:04.440
be that good? Like you're you're
gonna find out. It's like just like

650
00:47:04.519 --> 00:47:07.159
the bull approach to hitting. Yeah, he's he's so fun to watch too,

651
00:47:07.280 --> 00:47:12.639
Like just I'm gonna rarely swing out
of the zone. When it's in

652
00:47:12.679 --> 00:47:15.159
the zone, I'm definitely gonna swing
and I'm just gonna make a crapload of

653
00:47:15.199 --> 00:47:20.800
contact. That's that's awesome. Yep. Cory Seger good. That's the hard

654
00:47:20.880 --> 00:47:23.079
hitting b side analysis that people come
to work for. I think, Yeah,

655
00:47:23.199 --> 00:47:29.440
Corey Seeger top three shortstop in all
of baseball. He's pretty good good,

656
00:47:29.519 --> 00:47:31.840
Like like, in comparison Schmid's home
run, the fly ball rates seven

657
00:47:31.880 --> 00:47:35.800
point one percent. Yeah, and
like some of that, some of that

658
00:47:35.920 --> 00:47:39.440
you can chalk up to ballpark.
Some of that is noise always like it's

659
00:47:39.480 --> 00:47:44.599
a noisy stat. But it's still
Corey Seeger is is. Uh, he's

660
00:47:44.679 --> 00:47:47.599
earned the benefit of the doubt.
He's pretty good at that. They hit

661
00:47:47.639 --> 00:47:52.000
the ball in the air of the
same exact amount last year percentage was.

662
00:47:52.159 --> 00:47:55.719
Cory Seeger is one of those ones
that, like I keep citing to some

663
00:47:55.760 --> 00:48:00.239
of the prospecting folks and I'm like, you want to see what a good

664
00:48:00.440 --> 00:48:04.480
batted ball profile looks like. For
some of that's relatively aggressive it should look

665
00:48:04.519 --> 00:48:08.400
something like this one to one ground
battle fly ball ratio. Like that's the

666
00:48:08.440 --> 00:48:13.880
good stuff. And four out of
the last five years that is exactly what

667
00:48:14.039 --> 00:48:19.159
Corey Seeger has done. Matt zip's
projections. How come they always have everyone's

668
00:48:19.280 --> 00:48:22.440
like play it appearances and games way
more than everybody else. So the way

669
00:48:22.480 --> 00:48:25.159
that ZIP says that, and I
actually think this is a really useful thing

670
00:48:25.239 --> 00:48:31.079
to know and a really useful barometer. So what zip's baseline is doing is

671
00:48:31.079 --> 00:48:37.639
saying, irrespective of team context,
irrespective of any other considerations, how often

672
00:48:37.960 --> 00:48:42.159
should this player be playing? So
that's why, like if you look at

673
00:48:42.199 --> 00:48:45.639
the ZIPS teams pages or if you're
just looking on their zip's projection, what

674
00:48:45.679 --> 00:48:51.880
you're seeing is what dan Zeborski's computer
says, this player, in a neutral

675
00:48:52.119 --> 00:48:55.559
environment, neutral team, where there's
no playing time competition, this is the

676
00:48:55.639 --> 00:49:00.920
optimal rate for this player to play
next year. Gotcha? And so then

677
00:49:00.960 --> 00:49:05.760
if you look at the ZIPS depth
charts, that's using zips's ratios sort of

678
00:49:05.800 --> 00:49:12.800
the underlying numbers and then applying the
playing time consideration. So what roster resource

679
00:49:13.119 --> 00:49:16.679
case Martinez and people who put that
together what they think the share or the

680
00:49:16.679 --> 00:49:22.000
apportionment of at bats to go around
for that particular team. Zip says Schmidt

681
00:49:22.280 --> 00:49:25.599
for one hundred and twenty three games
this year, ten home runs, not

682
00:49:25.679 --> 00:49:31.320
great ratios, Zip says Manuel vel
does Zips likes him anue abouez. I

683
00:49:31.360 --> 00:49:36.280
think one hundred and fourteen games,
sixteen home runs, six stolen bases,

684
00:49:36.519 --> 00:49:39.280
that's pretty bullish. I think two
fifty three, three, twenty two,

685
00:49:39.400 --> 00:49:45.239
four thirty six. Yeah, Zips
isn't super confident in Schmidt going forward either,

686
00:49:45.519 --> 00:49:49.880
Like sometimes you see a kind of
downer projection for this upcoming year,

687
00:49:49.960 --> 00:49:53.199
especially for a young guy just breaking
in, but there's real upside down the

688
00:49:53.239 --> 00:49:58.559
line, and I don't think Zips
is seeing that. He thinks that is

689
00:49:58.639 --> 00:50:00.960
kind of who he is. To
have him as a league average hitter in

690
00:50:01.000 --> 00:50:05.920
one on one WRC plus, Yeah, and I think that might be peak

691
00:50:05.960 --> 00:50:09.159
because in two years they're twenty twenty
six. Projections that just came out have

692
00:50:09.239 --> 00:50:14.360
him as a seventy seven WRC plus
player, one hundred and forty seventh on

693
00:50:14.400 --> 00:50:22.400
their projected shortstops in yah, Zip
Zip your lips man. Well, since

694
00:50:22.440 --> 00:50:28.440
we're talking about the Zips sort of
future forecasting, I'm gonna take a foray

695
00:50:28.559 --> 00:50:31.760
out of the kind of B side
territory and talk just briefly about a guy

696
00:50:31.880 --> 00:50:38.000
that kind of broke out last year, but I think is worth highlighting for

697
00:50:38.159 --> 00:50:44.079
this tool. So Danziborsi, every
year after he finishes the team by team

698
00:50:44.199 --> 00:50:46.840
zips breaks down releases and he's the
only one to do this to the public.

699
00:50:46.920 --> 00:50:51.880
He releases his three year projections so
you can scroll through on fan tracks

700
00:50:52.400 --> 00:50:57.519
what his projection system thinks players are
going to do next year twenty four,

701
00:50:57.880 --> 00:51:01.000
twenty twenty five, and twenty twenty
six. And I really like doing this

702
00:51:01.239 --> 00:51:06.719
to see who of these young guys
that maybe aren't prospects anymore, or often

703
00:51:06.840 --> 00:51:10.719
are prospects, who are the ones
that the computer is really buying and projects

704
00:51:10.719 --> 00:51:15.719
to keep getting better Because so much
of the other projecting systems you see a

705
00:51:15.760 --> 00:51:20.199
snapshot, you see one year,
and then even the folks that say they

706
00:51:20.239 --> 00:51:24.000
do multi year projections, like I
think they're buying large less rigorous than what

707
00:51:24.039 --> 00:51:28.679
the Zimborsi does. And so it's
an awesome tool to look at, like,

708
00:51:28.800 --> 00:51:31.599
maybe this guy isn't going to be
that good this year, but keep

709
00:51:31.639 --> 00:51:35.079
an eye on him, or try
and trade for him this year. If

710
00:51:35.079 --> 00:51:39.079
you're in a league that trades because
the upside is enormous and the computer already

711
00:51:39.119 --> 00:51:43.440
is expecting better. So there's a
few of these guys that I highlighted to

712
00:51:43.760 --> 00:51:47.639
at least mention. One of them
is Jack Sowinski, and he's getting popped

713
00:51:47.840 --> 00:51:53.679
pretty high after his real breakout performance
last year where he hit twenty six homers

714
00:51:53.760 --> 00:51:59.079
stole thirteen bags to the tune of
a one to twelve WRC plus, kind

715
00:51:59.079 --> 00:52:01.519
of came out of nowhere. He
was like a known prospect, that guy

716
00:52:01.679 --> 00:52:06.719
sort of like power overhit, but
nobody was really that excited about. And

717
00:52:06.760 --> 00:52:09.760
he hit well in his kind of
half season sample in twenty twenty two,

718
00:52:09.800 --> 00:52:14.079
and then he backed it up and
was basically just better across the board.

719
00:52:14.239 --> 00:52:17.960
Even last year strikeout rate ticked up
a little bit over thirty percent, which

720
00:52:19.079 --> 00:52:22.280
you know is a sort of danger
zone to me, but he's the kind

721
00:52:22.320 --> 00:52:25.519
of guy that has the power and
played approach to make that work. I

722
00:52:25.599 --> 00:52:30.239
thought this was really interesting. So
he's going two hundred and thirty fourth in

723
00:52:30.559 --> 00:52:32.360
NFBCS. The actual average is a
little different than that, but that's his

724
00:52:32.480 --> 00:52:37.360
like average rank, like the number
we're using here, so pretty high,

725
00:52:37.599 --> 00:52:43.360
but Zips thinks that in a couple
of years he's gonna be the fourteenth best

726
00:52:43.559 --> 00:52:47.920
outfielder. Now, again this was
for just overall offensive production, and he

727
00:52:49.039 --> 00:52:51.960
walks a lot and hits a lot
of homers. So your average leagues,

728
00:52:52.039 --> 00:52:55.440
your your roto leagues that use average, you're gonna want to regress that a

729
00:52:55.480 --> 00:53:00.800
bit. But I was actually super
surprised that it was so bullish. And

730
00:53:00.840 --> 00:53:04.000
he is still young. He's going
into his age twenty five season, but

731
00:53:04.039 --> 00:53:08.280
that's projecting quite a bit of growth
still, and it basically says to me

732
00:53:08.440 --> 00:53:13.320
that Zips is going to be projecting
him as a thirty homer fifteen steel bat

733
00:53:13.480 --> 00:53:16.519
for the next like four years,
five years maybe, and that's huge,

734
00:53:16.679 --> 00:53:21.239
even if he's sort of a batting
average risk with the strikeout rate. So

735
00:53:21.280 --> 00:53:23.599
he's one that, like I'll tell
you, I've actively tried to trade for

736
00:53:23.679 --> 00:53:29.079
in a few leagues recently, and
the cost is probably less than it should

737
00:53:29.119 --> 00:53:31.480
be given his really bright future.
And I think some of this is sort

738
00:53:31.519 --> 00:53:36.440
of like he wasn't really a well
regarded prospect and with the strikeout rate is

739
00:53:36.599 --> 00:53:40.440
worrisome, but everything else about the
profile, especially in any kind of OBP

740
00:53:40.679 --> 00:53:44.960
league, is going to crank homers. He's fast enough to steal bags.

741
00:53:45.079 --> 00:53:49.400
And I actually think the Pirates might
have a cornerstone right field type here.

742
00:53:49.679 --> 00:53:52.679
That is, he's going to get
six hundred plate appearances a year for the

743
00:53:52.800 --> 00:53:57.760
foreseeable future. Pretty bullish on him
and Zips is two. That's one to

744
00:53:57.920 --> 00:54:00.599
like keep an eye out for.
It's maybe not so much b siding,

745
00:54:00.599 --> 00:54:06.679
but it's like this guy might be
an elite asset here pretty soon and people

746
00:54:06.719 --> 00:54:09.079
aren't respecting that. I guess like
you can, you can get in a

747
00:54:09.119 --> 00:54:14.599
little early. I know Jeff Ponce
has long been a Sawinsky guy. Brought

748
00:54:14.639 --> 00:54:16.519
him up many years ago. To
me, it was now look out for

749
00:54:16.599 --> 00:54:21.599
him, and he wasn't wrong.
He was not He was not. Briefly

750
00:54:21.639 --> 00:54:24.880
about Jordan Diaz nice he made my
list too, so that that's good right

751
00:54:24.920 --> 00:54:30.119
on our twenty twenty two A selection
debuted the end of twenty twenty two,

752
00:54:30.159 --> 00:54:34.880
but last season he got in three
hundred and forty four played appearances, hit

753
00:54:34.960 --> 00:54:37.599
ten home runs, struck out twenty
two percent of the time, walked five

754
00:54:37.639 --> 00:54:42.639
and a half percent of the time, one thirty one iso A three fifty

755
00:54:42.679 --> 00:54:46.920
eight slug A WRC plus of seventy
nine s nota getting drafted in NFBC,

756
00:54:47.079 --> 00:54:52.199
and he's rostered in twenty percent of
fan tracks leagues, which is less than

757
00:54:52.480 --> 00:54:58.000
Judd Fabian, less than Jose Rodriguez, less than a couple four of them

758
00:54:58.119 --> 00:55:01.400
of the White Sox one sorry Popeye, less than Blake Walters and JR.

759
00:55:01.480 --> 00:55:05.760
Ritchie. Diaz is a classic guy
that like, if he hit the ball

760
00:55:05.800 --> 00:55:09.320
out in front and hit in the
air and more, he'd probably be a

761
00:55:09.400 --> 00:55:14.960
pretty enticing fantasy git here. But
he doesn't do that. He hits the

762
00:55:15.000 --> 00:55:19.280
ball hard, but into the grounds
the field too much. But man,

763
00:55:19.519 --> 00:55:22.199
I will say though, I mean
I watched him when he was like a

764
00:55:22.280 --> 00:55:23.679
twenty year old. The wats a
good amount of him and he was just

765
00:55:23.800 --> 00:55:28.719
wearing out right center field, right
just line drives, they're just peppering it.

766
00:55:28.880 --> 00:55:31.599
He does pull the ball, I
think more than he did back then.

767
00:55:31.880 --> 00:55:36.320
Yeah, when he was in the
uppers, it was a pretty even

768
00:55:36.360 --> 00:55:39.119
split. Like at Triple A in
twenty twenty two he was thirty one percent

769
00:55:39.280 --> 00:55:45.440
pull, thirty percent center, thirty
seven percent OPO. Pretty similar in Double

770
00:55:45.480 --> 00:55:47.880
A as well, though he did
have more pull when he was at the

771
00:55:47.920 --> 00:55:52.079
lower levels. All right there,
you go, eyeballs lie sometimes yeah,

772
00:55:52.079 --> 00:55:54.480
but it wouldn't have been when you
were watching him because it was all ricky

773
00:55:54.519 --> 00:55:58.360
ball stuff. So by the time
he was in full season ball, he

774
00:55:58.719 --> 00:56:00.119
pulled in a little bit more.
By the time he's in high A,

775
00:56:00.239 --> 00:56:02.519
double A, triple A, he
was he had some of that. I

776
00:56:02.559 --> 00:56:05.840
know, like coming up, you
know people asking, well, well,

777
00:56:05.960 --> 00:56:09.719
the slap hitter is like, he
hits the ball hard, he's sixty third

778
00:56:09.800 --> 00:56:16.079
percentile max CD seventy seven percentile average, Like he's got pop seeing him hit

779
00:56:16.280 --> 00:56:21.280
some pulled tanks, and you know
he's got great contact skills. I don't

780
00:56:21.280 --> 00:56:23.280
think he chases too much. Well, yeah, he chased quite a bit.

781
00:56:23.480 --> 00:56:27.920
He swung out of the zone forty
one percent of the time last year.

782
00:56:28.079 --> 00:56:30.760
That's not great. But he doesn't
strike out a ton. Do you

783
00:56:30.760 --> 00:56:34.440
think a guy like this can hit
the ball out in front more? Do

784
00:56:34.440 --> 00:56:37.679
you think that's an adjustment that hitters
can make. He's still quite young.

785
00:56:38.039 --> 00:56:42.840
It is an adjustment that people can
make. And he's got a lot of

786
00:56:42.840 --> 00:56:45.480
the kind of fundamental tools that I
don't know that you want to bat on.

787
00:56:45.639 --> 00:56:51.159
He's a skilled defender. He hits
the ball pretty hard, especially for

788
00:56:51.480 --> 00:56:53.920
his size, Like you know,
people knock him verticizing, Like, I

789
00:56:53.960 --> 00:56:58.679
don't care. He hits the ball
plenty hard enough. It's just that he's

790
00:56:58.800 --> 00:57:02.159
trying to hit everything, and a
little bit of selectivity might help, right,

791
00:57:02.239 --> 00:57:06.079
Like I think some of his problem
because I watched him a decent bit

792
00:57:06.239 --> 00:57:12.440
last year in Triple A. In
his MLB time, he gets caught chasing

793
00:57:12.480 --> 00:57:15.719
stuff that he has no business trying
to hit a ball that's out of his

794
00:57:15.800 --> 00:57:19.280
own and often what you'll see is
he'll hit that ball pretty hard, but

795
00:57:19.320 --> 00:57:22.239
those are the ones that are on
the ground, or those are the ones

796
00:57:22.239 --> 00:57:25.320
that he does hit soft or medium, and those are not productive balls.

797
00:57:25.559 --> 00:57:31.320
I wonder if in a different organization
I might feel more bullish. But I

798
00:57:31.440 --> 00:57:37.679
don't know if Oakland has done much
with this, like with this particular problem

799
00:57:37.760 --> 00:57:43.519
of helping to change someone's batted ball
spray or their swing decisions, Like I

800
00:57:43.559 --> 00:57:49.440
can't think of anybody who they meaningfully
changed a lot in the recent history.

801
00:57:49.840 --> 00:57:55.440
So usually pretty slow to either give
credit or blame to an organization and have

802
00:57:55.519 --> 00:57:59.800
that reflect on the player. Because
there are lots of other places that Diaz

803
00:57:59.840 --> 00:58:04.360
could go and learn how to do
that. But it does seem like this

804
00:58:04.519 --> 00:58:09.039
is not really a thing that is
an organizational wide philosophy. Now, I

805
00:58:09.119 --> 00:58:14.599
would love for Diaz to get with
someone like Brent Rooker, who does a

806
00:58:14.639 --> 00:58:19.960
lot of the things well that Diaz
doesn't, and I think is cerebral enough

807
00:58:20.000 --> 00:58:23.639
to understand the difference. Maybe he
can learn a little bit from somebody like

808
00:58:23.679 --> 00:58:28.199
that, because I do like a
lot of the stuff that Diaz brings to

809
00:58:28.239 --> 00:58:31.159
the table. I think there is
potential here if he makes some of those

810
00:58:31.199 --> 00:58:36.159
meaningful changes. But as you know, a guy that hits the ball in

811
00:58:36.199 --> 00:58:42.440
the ground this much, he's got
to have superlative barrel control and usually good

812
00:58:42.559 --> 00:58:45.719
plate discipline as well to make it
work. And Diaz doesn't have either of

813
00:58:45.760 --> 00:58:50.880
those things. So you're asking him
to do two things that are hard to

814
00:58:51.000 --> 00:58:55.280
change at the same time in an
organization that doesn't make that a big priority.

815
00:58:55.639 --> 00:59:00.119
I'm worried that it's never going to
come together in that way. It's

816
00:59:00.159 --> 00:59:02.480
interesting to me, though, because
like watching him like he never he didn't

817
00:59:02.519 --> 00:59:07.679
strike me as a guy who chased
in the minors very often too. His

818
00:59:07.840 --> 00:59:13.559
K percentages were like fifteen percent jumped
up to twenty four in the majors and

819
00:59:13.639 --> 00:59:15.400
backed by good swinging strike rates.
But I think that that's his issue,

820
00:59:15.880 --> 00:59:20.360
Like as a twenty two year old, Chase is not the same as Whiff,

821
00:59:20.480 --> 00:59:24.159
Right, It's just that he's swinging
at stuff that he can't really damage,

822
00:59:24.280 --> 00:59:28.719
right, Like, that's that's his
problem because he's a guy with good

823
00:59:28.840 --> 00:59:32.840
barrel control, good contact, good
exit velocities, but bad swing decisions and

824
00:59:32.960 --> 00:59:37.960
bad barrel path So he's even when
he's hitting those balls and hitting them hard,

825
00:59:38.079 --> 00:59:43.719
they're going on the ground that at
best is a single and often turns

826
00:59:43.760 --> 00:59:45.719
into an out. And that is
just that kills you at the big league

827
00:59:45.760 --> 00:59:51.280
level when guys can really pick it. Organizations know where to pitch, you

828
00:59:51.320 --> 00:59:55.199
know where to position their fielders,
and those ground balls that helped sustain three

829
00:59:55.360 --> 01:00:00.960
seventy three fifty babbitbs in the minor
leagues turn into two fifty eight in the

830
01:00:01.000 --> 01:00:05.760
major leagues. And again that's probably
like even on the low side, like

831
01:00:05.800 --> 01:00:07.639
you would expect it to be a
little bit better than that in the majors

832
01:00:07.639 --> 01:00:13.800
next year. But it's like you're
asking him to change two kind of fundamental

833
01:00:13.840 --> 01:00:16.679
things about himself as a hitter,
and that's a hard bet to make all

834
01:00:16.760 --> 01:00:22.639
right, we shall see. I
think playing time opportunity is there for him

835
01:00:22.639 --> 01:00:25.199
this year. Yeah, yeah.
And he's a fun he's a fun hitter.

836
01:00:25.280 --> 01:00:28.400
I do like a lack of a
lot about him, and I'm rooting

837
01:00:28.400 --> 01:00:30.760
for him. Maybe we can get
at Brent Rooker on Twitter, he's active

838
01:00:30.800 --> 01:00:35.719
there and see if he can bring
along our boy. It's interesting when you

839
01:00:35.760 --> 01:00:37.920
watch some of these guys. You
know, obviously, like we said,

840
01:00:37.960 --> 01:00:39.639
he doesn't pull the ball, hits
the ball in the air, but you

841
01:00:39.679 --> 01:00:43.159
know, folks be like, oh, no power. It's like, man,

842
01:00:43.360 --> 01:00:45.760
I was like drawn to him initially
because he'd let the ball travel on

843
01:00:45.840 --> 01:00:50.599
him and he would lace line drives
to right center field walls, and You're

844
01:00:50.639 --> 01:00:52.679
just like, no, no,
no, no, this guy has pop.

845
01:00:52.400 --> 01:00:55.519
It's just it's just not shaped right. I'm curious, and this is

846
01:00:55.760 --> 01:01:00.760
complete opposite in a lot of ways
and a new Mariner. I'm curious,

847
01:01:01.000 --> 01:01:05.400
what do you think about dominic canzone
because you want you want to talk about

848
01:01:05.760 --> 01:01:09.039
what I mean, his pool percentage
fifty four point six percent, ninety ninth

849
01:01:09.079 --> 01:01:15.079
percentile, his fly ball rate,
flyball rate and the sixtieth percentile forty percent

850
01:01:15.360 --> 01:01:21.239
almost and you know his ground ball
rate also just a hair above forty percent.

851
01:01:21.360 --> 01:01:23.440
Like I like that, Like Ken
Zone is the kind of guy that

852
01:01:23.639 --> 01:01:28.119
I preach about, right, Like
this is the he's optimizing. He's trying

853
01:01:28.119 --> 01:01:30.239
to hit homers. He hits the
ball hard kind of though, but he

854
01:01:30.360 --> 01:01:34.320
chases even more than the other guys
that we've been talking about. Yeah,

855
01:01:34.400 --> 01:01:37.960
his O swing percentage was forty three
percent. Yeah, that's too high,

856
01:01:38.199 --> 01:01:42.679
too high, And I think that's
reflected in how people pitched him too.

857
01:01:42.719 --> 01:01:45.800
He saw a lot of off speed, but yet a K percentage that was

858
01:01:45.880 --> 01:01:49.519
quite low, seventeen point six percent. Yeah, but he ran I think

859
01:01:49.960 --> 01:01:53.519
slightly higher carrates in the miners than
that. I think we can expect something

860
01:01:53.599 --> 01:01:58.880
above twenty in the upper In the
uppers he was nineteen point two percent,

861
01:01:58.960 --> 01:02:01.880
twenty point three percent, thirteen point
two percent. Never real bad, yeah,

862
01:02:01.960 --> 01:02:05.559
yeah, definitely, never really bad. And I think that's partly due

863
01:02:05.559 --> 01:02:09.079
to to, like you said,
his aggressiveness that he'll chase and he can't

864
01:02:09.079 --> 01:02:13.239
strike down if you don't get the
two strikes right. And he's the kind

865
01:02:13.280 --> 01:02:16.440
of guy that I think is trying
to hit the ball a lot. It

866
01:02:16.519 --> 01:02:21.199
hits the ball pretty hard and hits
the ball at good launch angles. I'm

867
01:02:21.239 --> 01:02:25.199
definitely personally colored by his time with
the Mariners last year, where he was

868
01:02:25.320 --> 01:02:30.360
not good seventy nine WRC plus,
chased at everything, hit some homers,

869
01:02:30.440 --> 01:02:37.119
but he was just like two fifty
eight OBP is unplayable, that doesn't work.

870
01:02:37.280 --> 01:02:42.800
So my enthusiasm for him is definitely
colored by that. Though he might

871
01:02:42.840 --> 01:02:47.719
be an interesting compliment in the outfield
that they have now they're remade nickel red

872
01:02:47.719 --> 01:02:53.199
paper clip traded outfield that Jerry and
Justin Hollander put together. He might get

873
01:02:53.239 --> 01:02:57.480
protected. I don't know if his
splits were bad in particular, but I

874
01:02:57.480 --> 01:03:00.880
think he might get the chance to
succeed in slightly more favorable matchups With Mitch

875
01:03:00.880 --> 01:03:05.880
Hanniger in the fold now as well, they'll spell each other, I bet.

876
01:03:06.000 --> 01:03:09.000
I think they'll rotate in some of
their younger guys in the outfield as

877
01:03:09.039 --> 01:03:13.920
well. The semi vets, Hagrity
and more will get some time out there

878
01:03:13.960 --> 01:03:17.679
spelling him, so they might ease
him in a bit more and as a

879
01:03:17.760 --> 01:03:22.280
late power play. I like it. I like it, just know that

880
01:03:22.639 --> 01:03:29.199
it might come with some bad average
years and certainly lower OBP as well.

881
01:03:29.320 --> 01:03:31.760
Talking about a Lefty who's and we're
only he's only one hundred and eighty two

882
01:03:31.960 --> 01:03:37.039
played appearances into his major league career. Here he's another guy in Matt who

883
01:03:37.159 --> 01:03:40.559
flyball exit velocity ninety first percentile.
Yeah, and you see it. You

884
01:03:40.599 --> 01:03:45.400
see it watching him, like the
way that he swings. He is really

885
01:03:45.719 --> 01:03:46.920
trying to hit fly balls and hit
him hard. And I love that.

886
01:03:47.039 --> 01:03:51.519
I think that that's my favorite thing
about about him, and I wish him

887
01:03:51.559 --> 01:03:53.480
well, not just because I'm a
fan of the team, but it seems

888
01:03:53.480 --> 01:03:59.119
like he's tried to remake himself in
that way, like I'm going to optimize

889
01:03:59.199 --> 01:04:00.559
who I am. You know,
he's not a top of the scale exit

890
01:04:00.679 --> 01:04:04.480
dilo guy. It's plus I think. Yeah, I think it's plus exit

891
01:04:04.599 --> 01:04:09.599
velo just across the board. But
he's really trying to make the most of

892
01:04:09.639 --> 01:04:14.400
those fly balls and then, oh
sorry, he's rastered in twenty four percent

893
01:04:14.480 --> 01:04:17.920
of leagues less. He's rastered less
than Trey Sweeney and Landon Nat, the

894
01:04:17.960 --> 01:04:23.159
same as Cole Carrig and Justice big
Bie. And I think it's like it's

895
01:04:23.199 --> 01:04:27.800
a good point too. I probably
in my teams where I'm competing, I'm

896
01:04:27.800 --> 01:04:31.440
probably not going to use a roster
spot on can Zone this year because of

897
01:04:31.519 --> 01:04:35.000
the playing time concerns, because of
some of the risks that we've highlighted.

898
01:04:35.159 --> 01:04:41.800
But if I'm a rebuilding team,
I'm trying to concentrate my prospects to the

899
01:04:41.880 --> 01:04:45.400
highest possible prospects. So like,
trade off my veterans and good players for

900
01:04:45.559 --> 01:04:49.400
those very tippy top, prettiest of
pretty boys. But then my major league

901
01:04:49.480 --> 01:04:54.039
roster is going to be filled with
guys like this. Exactly if he does

902
01:04:54.119 --> 01:04:58.639
figure it out and does get full
playing time and pops twenty five homers as

903
01:04:58.639 --> 01:05:02.480
a twenty six year old, I
mean that's gold. Like either he's a

904
01:05:02.599 --> 01:05:09.519
contributing piece to your next team or
competing team with an injury has an outfield

905
01:05:09.559 --> 01:05:12.760
need and they're like, wow,
that can Zone is running with this job.

906
01:05:12.800 --> 01:05:15.840
Who has him? Oh, it's
this team that I can actually line

907
01:05:15.880 --> 01:05:19.079
up with in trade. So I
think that's part of the message here is

908
01:05:19.119 --> 01:05:26.760
that your rebuilding roster should not be
just minor leaguers. Absolutely should have this

909
01:05:26.880 --> 01:05:30.320
kind of guy. That was a
total Yeah, that was the total premise

910
01:05:30.440 --> 01:05:33.159
of that top one hundred. I
did like, if you're rebuilding, load

911
01:05:33.239 --> 01:05:38.760
up on these guys instead of your
back of the top one hundred guys that

912
01:05:38.760 --> 01:05:42.239
you got to pay so much because
in the aggregate you're probably going to get

913
01:05:42.280 --> 01:05:46.440
just as much or more production out
of these types. Then you are fringy?

914
01:05:46.920 --> 01:05:53.159
Are they everyday players still allowed to
prove prospects and not just production but

915
01:05:53.280 --> 01:05:58.639
also utility? Like if you are
rostering, who's who's a good example of

916
01:05:58.679 --> 01:06:01.639
this, Like I'm so good at
for getting people once they're bad. I'm

917
01:06:01.639 --> 01:06:08.119
trying to think that's also a part
of this. Who was the top one

918
01:06:08.199 --> 01:06:11.719
hundred guy like a year ago or
two years ago, like back into the

919
01:06:11.719 --> 01:06:15.920
top one hundred that maybe people were
after as a rebuilding team. You're trying

920
01:06:15.920 --> 01:06:20.440
to collect all of the prospect capital
that you can. You're paying for Cole

921
01:06:20.559 --> 01:06:30.159
Henry and that Liberator and Giraldo Perdomo. These guys are on the back half

922
01:06:30.199 --> 01:06:34.519
of top one hundreds from two years
ago and have little to no value anymore.

923
01:06:34.840 --> 01:06:39.159
Even the ones that have made the
majors have been like not very good.

924
01:06:39.360 --> 01:06:44.119
And instead of rostering those guys,
holding them in your lineups or in

925
01:06:44.159 --> 01:06:47.800
your minors until they debut and are
middling, I think it's much more valuable

926
01:06:47.840 --> 01:06:51.360
for you to get the kinds of
guys that Nate and I are highlighting and

927
01:06:51.440 --> 01:06:58.519
then trade them, like you can't
trade to a contending team that back of

928
01:06:58.559 --> 01:07:01.199
a top one hundred prospect in the
middle of the season. You need those

929
01:07:01.400 --> 01:07:04.880
assets that you can take the gamble
on their playing time, you can take

930
01:07:04.880 --> 01:07:11.440
the gamble on them improving their stock
and their utility to the contending teams,

931
01:07:11.559 --> 01:07:15.880
and then take their future value from
the contending teams because they're over a barrel.

932
01:07:15.880 --> 01:07:19.599
They're competing for a playoff spot for
a championship, and they need that

933
01:07:19.719 --> 01:07:25.159
incremental production to cover their injuries.
And I know, having been in that

934
01:07:25.199 --> 01:07:30.199
situation, I've overpaid at the trade
deadline and lived to regret it because I

935
01:07:30.280 --> 01:07:34.280
needed that present production from a team
that had a bounce back candidate and could

936
01:07:34.360 --> 01:07:39.239
roster them, and they made out
really well. Like one of my worst

937
01:07:39.400 --> 01:07:44.119
trades in for sure, that I've
ever made was I in a thirty teamer

938
01:07:44.280 --> 01:07:49.480
traded for Tyler O'Neil when I had
some outfield injuries and the owner smartly knew

939
01:07:49.559 --> 01:07:55.360
that I had very few places that
I could go for producing outfielders. That

940
01:07:55.440 --> 01:08:00.159
year, I think this was twenty
twenty one, I sold Eduard Julian and

941
01:08:00.239 --> 01:08:04.480
Spencer Steer and Nick Nastrini in that
deal. I think so like two guys

942
01:08:04.519 --> 01:08:09.440
who are now major league stars and
basically since that deal have been better than

943
01:08:09.480 --> 01:08:13.360
Tyler O'Neil. But I needed to
make that move, or thought I needed

944
01:08:13.360 --> 01:08:16.760
to make that move at the time
because I needed Tyler O'Neil's production in twenty

945
01:08:16.840 --> 01:08:20.159
twenty one and neither the other two
were up yet. That's the kind of

946
01:08:20.199 --> 01:08:25.800
deal that rebuilding That's the kind of
approach that really good rebuilding teams take.

947
01:08:26.239 --> 01:08:30.000
Not can I hoard all of the
DSL, all of the Complex League,

948
01:08:30.039 --> 01:08:35.159
all of the A ball high upside
prospects? Yeah, definitely, I agree.

949
01:08:35.359 --> 01:08:41.000
I think that's a lesson that a
lot of new dynasty owners maybe learn

950
01:08:41.399 --> 01:08:45.680
the hard way. Do you know
who's rostered at the same rate. Who

951
01:08:45.920 --> 01:08:51.119
I think, just from a skills
wise skills wise is far better than can

952
01:08:51.199 --> 01:08:57.079
Zone is Elec Burlison. Oh yeah, only roster in twenty four percent of

953
01:08:57.159 --> 01:09:00.760
leagues, So that's again, that's
less than trace, ween I, Land

954
01:09:00.800 --> 01:09:05.279
and Knack. I know playing time
concerns, but four hundred Major league played

955
01:09:05.279 --> 01:09:12.439
appearances for Burlison been below average.
Hitter eighty five WRC plus over that time

956
01:09:12.920 --> 01:09:15.920
has only hit two thirty seven ninety
five. But I mean, we know

957
01:09:16.000 --> 01:09:23.319
that Burlison's Burlison's bat has been somewhat
famous, I think coming up through college,

958
01:09:23.439 --> 01:09:26.520
and he was pretty good in the
minors. I don't know, you

959
01:09:26.560 --> 01:09:30.159
think you still have some hope for
Burleson. I think I think I do.

960
01:09:30.560 --> 01:09:33.279
Yeah, I do too. I
like a lot of what he does,

961
01:09:33.359 --> 01:09:39.239
again is a low strikeout slugger,
Like he's got some power and does

962
01:09:39.680 --> 01:09:43.319
a good job avoiding strikeouts. I
think I like a lot of guys that

963
01:09:43.359 --> 01:09:47.199
we've talked about here, he's one
who doesn't optimize his batt ball profile and

964
01:09:47.359 --> 01:09:54.000
that's holding him back, especially since
that he does have a harder, a

965
01:09:54.039 --> 01:09:58.720
tighter line to walk right with his
defensive limitations, and this is one where

966
01:09:58.760 --> 01:10:01.560
the real world implication of that I
think matter a little bit. But as

967
01:10:01.600 --> 01:10:05.039
a hitter, I think he's got
a lot of a lot to really really

968
01:10:05.199 --> 01:10:09.319
like. He's not the most fit
guy in the world, but he is

969
01:10:09.680 --> 01:10:13.680
surprisingly way more athletic than you would
think for his size. And I know

970
01:10:13.760 --> 01:10:15.479
I saw a little bit of best
shape of your life season. But the

971
01:10:15.520 --> 01:10:18.279
Cardinals pretty much told him, if
you're going to survive here, you have

972
01:10:18.319 --> 01:10:23.479
to be able to play the outfield. Evidently he's lost weight and all that

973
01:10:23.520 --> 01:10:27.399
stuff this season. There's some stuff
like, you know, he doesn't pull

974
01:10:27.439 --> 01:10:29.880
the ball. He pulls the ball, fine, he doesn't hit it in

975
01:10:29.920 --> 01:10:33.319
the air enough or hasn't. But
I think there's a lot of batted ball

976
01:10:33.359 --> 01:10:38.560
stuff, in contact stuff in here
that has taken steps forward. I think

977
01:10:38.600 --> 01:10:41.319
in swing decision stuff. You know, a lot of guys that I kind

978
01:10:41.319 --> 01:10:44.359
of dug into that was kind of
you know, this roster raid and this

979
01:10:44.520 --> 01:10:46.479
demographic of major leaguer Like, there's
a lot of stuff You're like, Okay,

980
01:10:46.520 --> 01:10:49.359
this is not getting better. This
is not getting better. I can't

981
01:10:49.399 --> 01:10:53.840
make any sort of case why I
might be interested in you still, at

982
01:10:53.920 --> 01:10:57.720
least from like a numbers standpoint,
right, I think there's reason for some

983
01:10:57.840 --> 01:11:01.680
optimism with Burlison. Still there's some
you know, young guy Chase, it's

984
01:11:01.720 --> 01:11:06.319
not the worst that we've talked about. Chase is eighteen percentile O swing.

985
01:11:06.560 --> 01:11:11.319
It's not great. The zone contact
stuff is you know, top of the

986
01:11:11.399 --> 01:11:14.640
chart. Contact percentage is top of
the chart. Last year. Well,

987
01:11:14.680 --> 01:11:18.840
the projections kind of like him from
a ratio standpoint to some extent, hitting

988
01:11:18.840 --> 01:11:25.239
two seventy three twenties obps for forty
slug this year. You know, it's

989
01:11:25.399 --> 01:11:29.600
above league average stuff. And to
be honest, it's not crazy just to

990
01:11:29.720 --> 01:11:34.199
prefer him. Or see the scenario
in which he's out hitting Brendan Donovan and

991
01:11:34.319 --> 01:11:39.319
Dylan Carlson and you know, probably
can't play defense as well as Carlson,

992
01:11:39.600 --> 01:11:44.920
and I think the organization likes Donovan
a bit more. But I also see

993
01:11:44.920 --> 01:11:48.760
a path for Burlson to take their
share, like to you know, get

994
01:11:48.800 --> 01:11:53.159
four hundred played appearances in a really
good lineup, and again, he probably

995
01:11:53.199 --> 01:11:56.520
hit towards the back of that lineup, and it might be DH spelling out

996
01:11:56.600 --> 01:12:00.159
somebody in left field or something.
But that's that's another one where they're are

997
01:12:00.239 --> 01:12:05.880
some skills here. Maybe the slimming
down helps him play defense a bit better,

998
01:12:05.960 --> 01:12:10.359
and maybe there's some positive knock on
effects to his offense as well.

999
01:12:10.800 --> 01:12:15.800
Because you're more familiar with this,
Matt, how bad is a fangrass defensive

1000
01:12:15.960 --> 01:12:21.520
What run score is though you called
it how bad is negative eleven point four

1001
01:12:21.880 --> 01:12:28.680
very very bad, very bad,
very bad, Okay, especially given his

1002
01:12:29.199 --> 01:12:34.159
playing time. So because it's accounting
statistic like accruing eleven negative eleven point four

1003
01:12:34.239 --> 01:12:44.760
defensive runs, so so bad minus
eleven also like per inning basis, that's

1004
01:12:45.039 --> 01:12:48.359
near the bottom of the scale for
run value, and those things are noisy

1005
01:12:48.159 --> 01:12:53.279
and they can change. But just
for context, like minus eleven is very

1006
01:12:53.359 --> 01:12:58.399
bad for a half season or so. I mean, his major league numbers

1007
01:12:58.840 --> 01:13:01.960
have not been super We're hot,
right, so what what in there?

1008
01:13:02.239 --> 01:13:05.760
How do how do these projection systems
like okay, yeah, okay, this

1009
01:13:05.880 --> 01:13:11.000
wasn't so great. This was twenty
twenty two was pretty bad in a fifty

1010
01:13:11.039 --> 01:13:15.520
three very small plate appearance sample,
three hundred and forty seven. The next

1011
01:13:15.600 --> 01:13:18.439
year wasn't too great. Blow But
now this year, yeah, this year,

1012
01:13:18.479 --> 01:13:21.239
we think he's going to be an
above average hitter. Like what makes

1013
01:13:21.279 --> 01:13:27.119
that happen? In projections? I
have annoided a couple of things one last

1014
01:13:27.239 --> 01:13:31.199
year as using that as your baseline
for what their future is going to be

1015
01:13:31.720 --> 01:13:36.920
is pretty poor as a predictor because
there's so much noise in any given year.

1016
01:13:38.000 --> 01:13:41.680
Even a solid sample like three hundred
and forty seven plate appearances for the

1017
01:13:41.720 --> 01:13:45.800
Cardinals last year, that's a decent
sample, and so we know something about

1018
01:13:45.800 --> 01:13:48.039
his skills and how they translate to
the major leagues, But you look at

1019
01:13:48.039 --> 01:13:54.560
some of the other things about his
line and with you know, eighty ninety

1020
01:13:54.640 --> 01:13:59.800
mile an hour average exit velocity one
ten point six max. The guy ran

1021
01:14:00.119 --> 01:14:04.520
a two sixty one babbit and that's
with twenty two percent line drives and forty

1022
01:14:04.560 --> 01:14:11.000
one percent ground balls. Even for
someone as slow as Barlson, that's unusual.

1023
01:14:11.199 --> 01:14:15.319
So you would expect him probably to
run a league average or slightly above,

1024
01:14:15.399 --> 01:14:17.880
so you know, three hundred to
three ten maybe, given all of

1025
01:14:17.920 --> 01:14:21.359
the shape of his production. Even
just doing that, you turn that eighty

1026
01:14:21.479 --> 01:14:26.680
nine WRC plus into probably league average. So like when I look at his

1027
01:14:26.800 --> 01:14:30.039
production, I think a lot of
the change, a lot of the difference

1028
01:14:30.079 --> 01:14:34.880
between what his production was last year
and what the projections say for next year.

1029
01:14:35.279 --> 01:14:39.920
A lot of that delta I think
is driven by his babbit. That's

1030
01:14:39.960 --> 01:14:44.239
probably the biggest change. The other
one would be that because he hits the

1031
01:14:44.279 --> 01:14:47.960
ball hard and his bray like he
does hit fly balls, you would expect

1032
01:14:48.000 --> 01:14:53.119
more homers than he had. So
he only had an eight point two hummer

1033
01:14:53.199 --> 01:14:58.000
per fly ball rate and in triple
A the year before he ran seventeen point

1034
01:14:58.000 --> 01:15:00.640
two. That's pretty high, So
that's like higher than you might expect given

1035
01:15:00.880 --> 01:15:05.319
his power production, but eight point
two is really low. So just as

1036
01:15:05.359 --> 01:15:10.039
a guess, I think it's going
to be higher next year. And I'm

1037
01:15:10.079 --> 01:15:14.199
not sure if they show that in
any of the projection that doesn't look like

1038
01:15:14.239 --> 01:15:17.319
they do, but I'm guessing that
that's another piece of what some of the

1039
01:15:17.359 --> 01:15:20.479
projection systems are seeing. Is like, yeah, he's been pretty underwhelming in

1040
01:15:20.520 --> 01:15:25.159
the major leagues. Even some of
the minor league stuff is like more good

1041
01:15:25.199 --> 01:15:29.840
than great, But the way that
he's underperformed in the major leagues is sort

1042
01:15:29.840 --> 01:15:34.159
of obvious, right, Like it's
easy to see why you should expect better

1043
01:15:34.359 --> 01:15:42.479
than he has been so far.
Thanks. Sure, I wanted to touch

1044
01:15:42.479 --> 01:15:49.319
on a couple of guys, but
unfortunately they all have particular issues except one.

1045
01:15:49.640 --> 01:15:55.319
So I've got one of my best
friends baseball fan played with him in

1046
01:15:55.359 --> 01:16:00.720
college. He was all on the
Kyle Lewis train, and he debuted for

1047
01:16:00.760 --> 01:16:04.520
the Marriors and had that incredible run
in twenty twenty and won the I guess

1048
01:16:04.560 --> 01:16:08.359
it is like the end of twenty
nineteen he was incredible, and then twenty

1049
01:16:08.399 --> 01:16:11.720
twenty he was incredible rookie of the
Year. There used to be a little

1050
01:16:11.720 --> 01:16:15.680
bit of a Kyle Lewis Louis Robert
debate in some circles that I was a

1051
01:16:15.720 --> 01:16:19.680
part of. Yeah, and Kyle
Lewis is a guy that I really wanted

1052
01:16:19.680 --> 01:16:25.279
to just throw my hat in for
it, as like a guy who showed

1053
01:16:25.880 --> 01:16:30.760
true power, like would hit fly
balls and hit him hard and performed,

1054
01:16:30.800 --> 01:16:33.079
and then it was just injuries,
Like injuries just piled up and ruined a

1055
01:16:33.119 --> 01:16:39.279
bunch of seasons for him. And
if given a DH job or a part

1056
01:16:39.279 --> 01:16:42.840
time left field, part time DH
job, that he might be a really

1057
01:16:42.920 --> 01:16:45.199
useful kind of late flyer bat.
But he still doesn't have a job,

1058
01:16:45.239 --> 01:16:51.560
I don't think after giving a DFA
by the Diamondbacks to offseason. And also,

1059
01:16:51.680 --> 01:16:54.760
I mean I was like skeptical at
the time, like I was the

1060
01:16:54.800 --> 01:16:58.359
one saying he wasn't that good,
even as he was just crushing to the

1061
01:16:58.399 --> 01:17:02.439
tune of two years of one hundred
and twenty seven plus WRC plus A lot

1062
01:17:02.439 --> 01:17:06.600
of that was like, you know, unsustainable babbubs, unsustainable homer for homer

1063
01:17:06.760 --> 01:17:12.279
per fly ball ratios, and he's
got strikeout concerns and can't play defense anymore.

1064
01:17:12.319 --> 01:17:15.680
There's a lot not to like about
him, and the easiest one is

1065
01:17:15.680 --> 01:17:17.560
like, he doesn't have a job, nobody believes in him currently. But

1066
01:17:17.920 --> 01:17:20.800
I wanted to give him a hat
tip because there are some skills there that

1067
01:17:20.840 --> 01:17:25.760
are hard to replicate, and he's
that sort of classic post hype sleeper.

1068
01:17:26.000 --> 01:17:29.359
Maybe he latches on somewhere, he's
still just twenty eight. I don't know.

1069
01:17:29.439 --> 01:17:32.800
I want to give the guy some
credit. The other one that I

1070
01:17:32.840 --> 01:17:38.760
really really wanted to argue for is
Austin Meadows, but I think his mental

1071
01:17:38.800 --> 01:17:44.600
health concerns have maybe his career might
be over, like actually over. But

1072
01:17:44.800 --> 01:17:48.079
he's another one that I really loved
the overall shape of the production. There

1073
01:17:48.159 --> 01:17:50.920
was a little bit of speed,
a lot of power, good obp,

1074
01:17:51.399 --> 01:17:55.960
maybe a touch too much strikeout,
but I was in. I thought that

1075
01:17:56.000 --> 01:18:00.600
he was a really really fun hitter
and a real talent and it's been a

1076
01:18:00.600 --> 01:18:03.399
shame to see that fade away due
to his real mental health concerns. And

1077
01:18:03.439 --> 01:18:05.960
I think again, as a twenty
eight year old, he might be just

1078
01:18:06.000 --> 01:18:10.359
completely done. He doesn't have a
contract, so that's a that's a bummer.

1079
01:18:10.399 --> 01:18:13.720
But like again, maybe a flyer
in a deep league is if he

1080
01:18:13.800 --> 01:18:16.960
catches on somewhere and has had some
help and gets his mind right. But

1081
01:18:17.720 --> 01:18:20.960
yeah, that's another one that I
wanted to advocate for, but I couldn't

1082
01:18:21.039 --> 01:18:25.159
couldn't bring myself to do it.
So the one that I'm gonna go for

1083
01:18:25.520 --> 01:18:29.520
is not much better, but shares
a lot in common. He's twenty seven

1084
01:18:29.640 --> 01:18:34.439
rather than twenty eight, has showed
flashes of top of the scale power and

1085
01:18:35.079 --> 01:18:40.239
real strikeout concerns. He might not
have a job. Actually, no,

1086
01:18:40.439 --> 01:18:43.000
I'm looking it up. No,
he doesn't have a job. He's a

1087
01:18:43.039 --> 01:18:46.760
free agent, so also also a
free agent always shares a lot and come

1088
01:18:46.840 --> 01:18:51.800
with these guys, it's kesten Hera. Oh he's not with anybody. Nope,

1089
01:18:53.520 --> 01:18:58.359
So travel back, travel back to
twenty nineteen with me. He debuts

1090
01:18:58.880 --> 01:19:03.960
in the middle of the season and
after torching the Triple A. Torching Triple

1091
01:19:03.960 --> 01:19:10.079
A, he hit nineteen homers in
two hundred and forty three plate appearances in

1092
01:19:10.119 --> 01:19:14.920
Triple A. Came up in I
think it was July with Milwaukee hit another

1093
01:19:15.039 --> 01:19:19.439
nineteen hommers. So the dude hit
thirty eight homers in his first in like

1094
01:19:19.479 --> 01:19:24.000
that, twenty nineteen season, struck
out a lot, but still ran a

1095
01:19:24.000 --> 01:19:28.159
one thirty nine WRC plus short season
twenty twenty at the major league level,

1096
01:19:28.159 --> 01:19:32.399
he played I think the full year
with the Brewers and was underwhelming, like

1097
01:19:32.439 --> 01:19:35.840
took a step back, struck out
more, walked less, hit a few

1098
01:19:35.840 --> 01:19:40.960
fewer homers, but still was fine. Thirteen hommers in two hundred and forty

1099
01:19:41.000 --> 01:19:44.720
six played appearances. That's still really
good power. Then maybe didn't have quite

1100
01:19:44.760 --> 01:19:47.399
as much Babbitt luck, but still
was smoking the ball. And then he

1101
01:19:47.560 --> 01:19:51.159
just keeped striking out more and more
in Triple A in twenty twenty one,

1102
01:19:51.239 --> 01:19:55.880
thirty three point five percent strikeout rate
in the majors, in twenty twenty one,

1103
01:19:55.920 --> 01:19:58.800
thirty nine percent strikeout rate. Twenty
twenty two, he goes back to

1104
01:19:58.840 --> 01:20:02.279
Triple A again, where's his strikeout
rate to twenty five percent gets two hundred

1105
01:20:02.319 --> 01:20:06.840
and sixty six plate appearances in the
major league's forty one point seven strikeout percent.

1106
01:20:06.960 --> 01:20:12.439
That's Joey Gallo bad version level,
and he doesn't quite have the power

1107
01:20:12.479 --> 01:20:17.359
that Joey Gallo does. So tenable, then untenable, then unplayable, And

1108
01:20:17.800 --> 01:20:21.239
in twenty twenty three he had just
a cup of coffee on the complex.

1109
01:20:21.239 --> 01:20:26.159
I think as he was rehabbing,
but in Triple A again, he scald

1110
01:20:26.199 --> 01:20:29.840
at the ball twenty three homers over
three hundred and sixty seven plate appearances,

1111
01:20:30.000 --> 01:20:33.920
a threeho eight three ninety five five
sixty five triple slash, good for a

1112
01:20:33.920 --> 01:20:40.119
one thirty seven WSC plus in the
Eastern League and a manageable dare say like

1113
01:20:40.439 --> 01:20:44.880
league average strikeout rate of twenty four
point five percent, and the Brewers let

1114
01:20:44.960 --> 01:20:47.760
him walk. Now, the Brewers
do have quite a few outfielders. They

1115
01:20:47.840 --> 01:20:53.479
do generally shy away from this kind
of a profile. It's not their favorite,

1116
01:20:53.680 --> 01:20:58.920
it seems from an organizational philosophy standpoint, the high strikeout, high homer

1117
01:20:59.359 --> 01:21:02.119
output, it's not really their bugaboo. But it's weird. They didn't give

1118
01:21:02.159 --> 01:21:05.640
him a job. I don't think
he was, like, maybe he was

1119
01:21:05.680 --> 01:21:10.640
an arb one at the time.
This is gonna be his first arbitration year

1120
01:21:10.720 --> 01:21:13.439
or something. Yeah, I think
this would have been his first ar beer.

1121
01:21:13.520 --> 01:21:15.720
He just elected free agency. They
didn't tender him a contract. Nobody's

1122
01:21:15.720 --> 01:21:18.199
picked him up, So I might
be way out on a limb here.

1123
01:21:18.359 --> 01:21:25.000
It looked to me like the last
couple of seasons he actually was raining in

1124
01:21:25.039 --> 01:21:30.319
his his strikeout concerns, was still
hitting the ball hard enough and in batted

1125
01:21:30.359 --> 01:21:32.920
ball profile that was going to lead
to a lot of home runs. And

1126
01:21:33.000 --> 01:21:35.840
you know, he's not a defend
he's not a good defender, and so

1127
01:21:36.279 --> 01:21:40.880
that first base profile with this kind
of power and strikeout concerns, like,

1128
01:21:41.039 --> 01:21:45.600
yeah, that's not the thing in
the most demand. But man, I

1129
01:21:45.680 --> 01:21:48.199
just kind of was convinced that,
like, somebody should give him a job.

1130
01:21:48.279 --> 01:21:51.640
Somebody should let him put up four
and fifty played appearances this year and

1131
01:21:51.680 --> 01:21:57.479
see what he can do. And
I still think that that is likely true.

1132
01:21:57.720 --> 01:22:00.319
And if they do, he's gonna
hit twenty five homers. So he's

1133
01:22:00.359 --> 01:22:03.359
another one that like more than the
other guys I mentioned, I think he

1134
01:22:03.520 --> 01:22:08.600
is likely to get a job from
somebody, and if they give him some

1135
01:22:08.760 --> 01:22:14.640
run, you know it's the Nationals
or A's or somebody with a lot of

1136
01:22:14.680 --> 01:22:17.640
playing time to go around. Like
I could see him having a really solid

1137
01:22:17.800 --> 01:22:21.920
under the radar season that you know, people didn't see coming. But he's

1138
01:22:21.960 --> 01:22:29.000
still a potent hitter even with the
strikeouts. If that happens, no one

1139
01:22:29.199 --> 01:22:31.800
but you saw that coming. Mat
Yeah, he's you know, like down

1140
01:22:31.840 --> 01:22:35.319
in the seven hundreds, I think
in NFBC, So somebody's drafting him,

1141
01:22:35.439 --> 01:22:42.439
Like, it's not nobody. Teams
ten leagues have drafted guessing Hira, so

1142
01:22:42.680 --> 01:22:45.640
you know, it's not nobody.
It's interesting though, right, there was

1143
01:22:45.680 --> 01:22:49.479
a time you know that we're in
first year player draft season that like Otani

1144
01:22:49.720 --> 01:22:56.399
versus Kestenhira or yep, Ryce lewis, like which, how are you ordering

1145
01:22:56.439 --> 01:23:00.960
those at the top of your draft? Good remember that sometimes, I think,

1146
01:23:01.199 --> 01:23:03.720
yeah, it is, And it's
good to remember that for a present

1147
01:23:03.800 --> 01:23:08.439
day context too, when you look
at some of the high homer guys in

1148
01:23:08.479 --> 01:23:11.319
the miners and you might dream on
them, like, you know, Trey

1149
01:23:11.399 --> 01:23:15.720
Cabbage, like he just got picked
up by the Astros today, and he's

1150
01:23:15.720 --> 01:23:18.079
a guy that's like this, like
a lot of power, but a lot

1151
01:23:18.079 --> 01:23:23.439
of strikeouts, and maybe Houston can
fix some of those issues. And I

1152
01:23:23.439 --> 01:23:27.279
think I saw some chatter that maybe
people are like now into Trey Cabbage,

1153
01:23:27.319 --> 01:23:31.479
but Cabbage is like Heira, you
know, and this guy comes basically free

1154
01:23:31.760 --> 01:23:35.720
so thinking thinking about those other kinds
of guys. And I heard the Baseball

1155
01:23:35.720 --> 01:23:41.439
America guys talking about Colaso and somebody
else was talking about some of the college

1156
01:23:41.760 --> 01:23:45.960
first baseman with really big exit velocities, and they mentioned Kemp Alderman from last

1157
01:23:46.039 --> 01:23:49.680
year's draft. Is like huge exit
velocity guy about big strikeouts, like and

1158
01:23:49.800 --> 01:23:54.520
first base only like this is the
profile, Like you got to hit a

1159
01:23:54.520 --> 01:23:58.279
ton of homers for this profile to
work, and with no defensive value,

1160
01:23:58.359 --> 01:24:02.159
like teams do care about that.
So it is a really really tight path

1161
01:24:02.239 --> 01:24:05.359
you got to walk to make it
work. And here is an example of

1162
01:24:05.399 --> 01:24:09.199
that. Yeah, we didn't even
met we had our first B side or

1163
01:24:09.279 --> 01:24:14.079
get traded this year. Matto in
that cabbage thing, right, Carlos Espinosa.

1164
01:24:14.279 --> 01:24:17.720
Oh, I didn't realize he was
the return. Yeah he's off to

1165
01:24:17.760 --> 01:24:24.479
the Angels. Great, Yeah,
I know, right, goes from Houston

1166
01:24:24.520 --> 01:24:29.560
to LA. Speaking of Houston,
I wanted to talk about Jake Myers.

1167
01:24:29.800 --> 01:24:32.239
We were talking about Canada hitter hit
the ball in the air more, Can

1168
01:24:32.359 --> 01:24:35.760
they pull it more? Here's the
case of someone who's done that, and

1169
01:24:35.880 --> 01:24:39.560
it's it's kind of wild to me
too, if you're thinking about thirty teen

1170
01:24:39.640 --> 01:24:43.840
leagues, we have Myers is the
Astros starting center fielder at least to start

1171
01:24:43.840 --> 01:24:45.960
the season. They've said that and
he's going to be at least early in

1172
01:24:45.960 --> 01:24:49.279
the season, every day at centerfielder. And he's rostered in twelve percent of

1173
01:24:49.359 --> 01:24:53.680
leagues, which is wild to me. You know who's rastered more than Jake

1174
01:24:53.760 --> 01:25:00.039
Myers, Troy Johnson, Troy Johnston, Chase Midrid, Allen Linens, Jeter

1175
01:25:00.199 --> 01:25:06.279
Downs. Uh, oh, rostered
more than the Jake Myers. What was

1176
01:25:06.319 --> 01:25:10.279
it last season? Last couple of
seasons. I have a couple of friends

1177
01:25:10.319 --> 01:25:14.319
who are Astros fans and followed them
closely, and I asked him, like

1178
01:25:14.920 --> 01:25:17.720
you like more Myers and McCormick.
It was always Myers, which is interesting.

1179
01:25:17.960 --> 01:25:20.800
We saw, we saw what McCormick
did last year, Right, McCormick

1180
01:25:20.840 --> 01:25:25.279
did stuff last year that he had
never done coming up in the minor leagues,

1181
01:25:25.439 --> 01:25:29.159
hitting for power like he did.
And I'm just a little bit curious

1182
01:25:29.520 --> 01:25:33.000
looking at meyers batter ball stuff and
contact things like it's all on the up

1183
01:25:33.079 --> 01:25:36.920
and up. He's six hundred and
sixty four played appearances into his career,

1184
01:25:38.079 --> 01:25:41.520
twenty seven years old. He's hit
seventeen home runs, stolen ten bases.

1185
01:25:41.720 --> 01:25:45.680
Strikeout rate has been a touch under
thirty, but uh, he improved his

1186
01:25:45.720 --> 01:25:48.720
strikeout route, his strikeout rate eight
points last year to a you know,

1187
01:25:48.840 --> 01:25:54.119
doable twenty five point eight percent,
while improving his walk rate by eight percent,

1188
01:25:54.319 --> 01:25:58.399
which was almost as good as his
best walk rate, which I believe

1189
01:25:58.560 --> 01:26:01.479
was in twenty twenty one in Triple
A. His fly ball percentage jumped to

1190
01:26:01.600 --> 01:26:05.039
thirty eight point seven percent, which
is the most that's been by a lot,

1191
01:26:05.199 --> 01:26:09.239
uh not since I A ball,
I think, and close to his

1192
01:26:09.279 --> 01:26:13.560
twenty twenty one Triple A numbers when
he hit sixteen home runs in the PCL.

1193
01:26:13.720 --> 01:26:16.399
Forty five percent pool raid has been
the most since he was in Double

1194
01:26:16.439 --> 01:26:19.720
A. I get like the evs
aren't real high or anything like that,

1195
01:26:19.760 --> 01:26:25.479
but they're trending up. And his
fastball respectable ninety one miles per hour,

1196
01:26:25.560 --> 01:26:28.560
which is above average. I mean, he's kind of average evs. But

1197
01:26:29.319 --> 01:26:32.720
and you know that that short porch. I'm just wondering, Uh, I

1198
01:26:32.760 --> 01:26:36.199
don't know, are we going to
see like a like a peak season here

1199
01:26:36.359 --> 01:26:41.479
for mister Myers and he's gonna get
full time run I mean, if I'm

1200
01:26:41.479 --> 01:26:45.680
in a thirty teen league, and
especially if you're if you play specific outfield

1201
01:26:45.920 --> 01:26:49.119
like center field's tough, like I
have no problem roster and Myers to play

1202
01:26:49.159 --> 01:26:53.840
some center field. It's an interesting
shout, and a lot of what you're

1203
01:26:54.199 --> 01:26:59.560
saying seems to suggest there might be
a little bit more like Chaz last ye

1204
01:26:59.600 --> 01:27:01.199
he had never hit more than fourteen
home runs in the season, I don't

1205
01:27:01.199 --> 01:27:04.640
think, and then he popped twenty
two. Weird how the Astros can get

1206
01:27:04.640 --> 01:27:08.800
that to happen. But like,
just just an interesting guy to me that

1207
01:27:08.840 --> 01:27:12.880
I think there are some things trending
in the right direction. Yeah, that

1208
01:27:12.880 --> 01:27:16.079
that is interesting. I think obviously
McCormick hits the ball a little bit harder,

1209
01:27:16.119 --> 01:27:19.079
but it's not that much. Yeah, I wonder, Yeah, that

1210
01:27:19.520 --> 01:27:25.159
might be you might be onto something
there. That's an interesting. Astros always

1211
01:27:25.159 --> 01:27:28.319
seem to have one of these guys
to kind of do something like this too.

1212
01:27:28.640 --> 01:27:31.119
I don't know. I'm just oneing. And Myers does play pretty good

1213
01:27:31.119 --> 01:27:33.960
outfield, like that's yeah, that's
what keeps him on the field too,

1214
01:27:34.199 --> 01:27:39.199
Right, He's better than McCormick defensively, definitely, So I don't know.

1215
01:27:39.920 --> 01:27:44.560
It might be sneaky sneak here and
nobody, nobody's on them if Myers is

1216
01:27:44.640 --> 01:27:47.840
McCormick of twenty twenty four, Like
I'm saying, it's gonna happen, but

1217
01:27:48.159 --> 01:27:53.239
I wouldn't be surprised. You think
they try and push one of their young

1218
01:27:53.319 --> 01:27:57.520
outfitters Melting or lower Feto up And
sure, I'm sure they'll. I'm sure

1219
01:27:57.520 --> 01:28:00.920
they'll get some young guy some run
at some point, but I kind of

1220
01:28:00.920 --> 01:28:03.760
think it's going to be Quincy Hamilton
before those guys. So low Braffedo folks,

1221
01:28:03.960 --> 01:28:06.239
I don't know if it's a week, two weeks, a month,

1222
01:28:06.359 --> 01:28:10.359
he's kind of ahead of them,
just up the ladder wise, and I

1223
01:28:10.359 --> 01:28:13.760
think he's done enough to earn a
shot, but just a look, you

1224
01:28:13.800 --> 01:28:17.680
know, so I know La Brafito
Mountain owners probably don't want to hear that,

1225
01:28:17.760 --> 01:28:21.319
but that would just be ugh guest, at least for fantasy's sake.

1226
01:28:21.399 --> 01:28:26.600
You'd kind of hope that Myers steals
more like he's pretty fast, he plays

1227
01:28:26.640 --> 01:28:30.840
good defense, but I don't know
he should have propencated a run. I

1228
01:28:30.920 --> 01:28:33.119
might get a little more excited about
it, but yeah, yeah, an

1229
01:28:33.119 --> 01:28:39.039
interesting shout ATC's got him for one
hundred games, two thirty five, three

1230
01:28:39.159 --> 01:28:42.880
hundred OVP three eighty two. I
mean nothing, nothing real exciting, nine

1231
01:28:42.920 --> 01:28:45.920
home runs, six stolen bases,
But I don't know. If it was

1232
01:28:45.079 --> 01:28:48.720
much better than that, I wouldn't
be that surprised. I also kind of

1233
01:28:48.720 --> 01:28:55.319
find Kyle isbel a little bit interesting. Another potential starting every day outfielder.

1234
01:28:55.439 --> 01:28:59.239
I mean, that's how roster resource
has it right now. Lefty twenty six

1235
01:28:59.359 --> 01:29:02.560
years old. He's got six hundred
and seventy four Major League played appearances.

1236
01:29:02.600 --> 01:29:06.720
He's rostered in only sixteen percent of
league's. He's rostered less than your guy,

1237
01:29:06.960 --> 01:29:14.880
Chancel Luise. He's rastered less than
Jordan Groshan's. He's rastered less than

1238
01:29:14.960 --> 01:29:19.479
Ace Lacey. Well was I can't
miss step King, Oh, I know,

1239
01:29:19.960 --> 01:29:24.159
I know as well as interesting to
me because like I think there might

1240
01:29:24.199 --> 01:29:28.319
be some good contact stuff with a
little bit of a home run potential.

1241
01:29:28.479 --> 01:29:31.439
Then maybe he hasn't quite fully blossomed. But he's hit the ball in the

1242
01:29:31.479 --> 01:29:34.399
air more as a big leader,
but it hasn't pulled it as much.

1243
01:29:34.600 --> 01:29:39.800
He's got a plus hard hit percentage, he's got a ninety fifth percentile zone

1244
01:29:39.880 --> 01:29:45.359
contact, but he's become more selective, has swung less and as he's done

1245
01:29:45.359 --> 01:29:49.000
that, like his his slug has
has dropped. Like he's cut the k

1246
01:29:49.119 --> 01:29:53.039
rates down a lot. But he's
not doing as much damage. I'm kind

1247
01:29:53.079 --> 01:29:57.039
of wondering, let my guy go
here and see what happens. Stop trying

1248
01:29:57.039 --> 01:29:59.600
to make him more of a Matt
guy and make him more Let him be

1249
01:29:59.680 --> 01:30:02.279
more of that he was earlier on
in his career and in the minors when

1250
01:30:02.279 --> 01:30:05.399
he did more damage with the bat. Pretty good defensively, I think,

1251
01:30:05.439 --> 01:30:08.600
as far as I can tell,
So I don't know, it just kind

1252
01:30:08.600 --> 01:30:12.520
of an interesting I'm not going to
win you any leagues or anything like that,

1253
01:30:12.560 --> 01:30:15.000
but if you're in a deeper league
and you needed like a starting outfielder,

1254
01:30:15.279 --> 01:30:18.479
see how spring goes and what have
you. But kind of Isabel's still

1255
01:30:18.560 --> 01:30:21.439
a little bit interesting to me,
all right. He had some under the

1256
01:30:21.479 --> 01:30:25.199
red Ar hype a couple of years
ago and didn't quite pay off. So

1257
01:30:25.239 --> 01:30:29.479
this is a good reminder to watch
this kind of guy. Another sort of

1258
01:30:29.520 --> 01:30:33.079
similar one in the Kansas City system
Tied Gentry, just on the prospect side.

1259
01:30:33.159 --> 01:30:35.920
He had a lot of hype coming
into this year, and I think

1260
01:30:36.039 --> 01:30:40.119
had a rough first half of the
year. But I still kind of buy

1261
01:30:40.399 --> 01:30:45.479
what he's got as sort of like
average production across the board that leads to

1262
01:30:45.840 --> 01:30:48.239
production that's sort of greater than some
of its parts. So Kansas City has

1263
01:30:48.239 --> 01:30:53.000
a couple interesting guys like that.
Isbell's first introduction to Pro Bowl was only

1264
01:30:53.039 --> 01:30:56.039
eighty three played appearances. But I
mean, he's a guy who's caught his

1265
01:30:56.159 --> 01:30:59.920
chase rate good chunk like eight percent
since he was you know, first and

1266
01:31:00.119 --> 01:31:02.760
to coming into the league. So
I think with some seasoning, some guys

1267
01:31:02.800 --> 01:31:06.720
can clean some of that up.
I don't think that's craziness, all right.

1268
01:31:08.079 --> 01:31:13.399
A lot of the guys that I've
talked about so far tonight index toward

1269
01:31:14.000 --> 01:31:17.960
the power profile, certainly an exciting
one. There's lots of guys that hit

1270
01:31:18.199 --> 01:31:23.000
homers but strike out a ton and
can't make that profile work for one reason

1271
01:31:23.079 --> 01:31:26.239
or another. But there's still plenty
that you can add late in a draft

1272
01:31:26.359 --> 01:31:29.319
to, like I said, help
make up for homers at the end of

1273
01:31:29.319 --> 01:31:32.079
the year. But it's a little
bit harder to make up steals, even

1274
01:31:32.119 --> 01:31:35.800
in the higher steel world in which
we live now. So I wanted to

1275
01:31:35.840 --> 01:31:40.960
highlight a couple of guys, one
of which who I think is pretty well

1276
01:31:41.039 --> 01:31:44.479
known, and the other of which
I bet, even in your deep leagues

1277
01:31:44.640 --> 01:31:50.000
probably is a non entity or potentially
cheap to acquire. So the first guy

1278
01:31:50.159 --> 01:31:56.760
that I wanted to touch on is
Joey Cowboy, as we affectionately called him

1279
01:31:56.760 --> 01:32:01.560
at my Mariners group chat. Jose
cabierro sly traded to the Tampa Bay Rays,

1280
01:32:01.920 --> 01:32:10.920
is a pesky second base shortstop tight
who has a preternatural feel for getting

1281
01:32:10.960 --> 01:32:15.880
hit by pitches using the pitch clock, and also is a really good bass

1282
01:32:15.920 --> 01:32:18.960
steeler. He doesn't have top of
the skill speed, but he's very good

1283
01:32:19.079 --> 01:32:27.159
at actually swiping bases. Last year
he was like twenty seventh in the Majors

1284
01:32:27.239 --> 01:32:30.199
in steels in half of the playing
time of most of the guys on this

1285
01:32:30.239 --> 01:32:35.439
list a third like the only other
guy with his few played appearances as him

1286
01:32:35.720 --> 01:32:41.479
it had a similar rate of steals
was Jake McCarthy, noted speedster. So

1287
01:32:41.760 --> 01:32:45.000
he's another guy that I think flies
under the radar a bit. Again,

1288
01:32:45.279 --> 01:32:50.239
not a lot of thump there.
He went from one questionable playing time situation

1289
01:32:50.319 --> 01:32:55.760
to another. Even though shortstop apparently
is his for at least the start of

1290
01:32:55.760 --> 01:32:58.399
the year. I don't think Taylor
Walls is going to be out all the

1291
01:32:58.520 --> 01:33:02.439
year. And in Carson Williams and
a Selba Spasave, there's a couple of

1292
01:33:02.439 --> 01:33:05.920
guys coming up behind that might push
him for playing time. So it's not

1293
01:33:05.960 --> 01:33:10.359
like this is going to be a
sixty seal guy because he's going to lock

1294
01:33:10.399 --> 01:33:13.920
into six hundred plate appearances next year. But I think he's going to keep

1295
01:33:13.920 --> 01:33:16.239
this kind of steel rate and because
that's a part of his game. He

1296
01:33:16.359 --> 01:33:21.359
that's just how he plays is he's
fast, and he wants to accrue every

1297
01:33:21.399 --> 01:33:25.720
little bit of value that he can. So Jose Cabierro is another guy that

1298
01:33:25.760 --> 01:33:29.319
I think is being underdrafted a little
bit, maybe partly because I'm looking at

1299
01:33:29.399 --> 01:33:33.000
overall draft position and it might have
ticked up since the trade and since the

1300
01:33:33.039 --> 01:33:36.479
news that he's at least going to
start I think the year as the Rays

1301
01:33:36.520 --> 01:33:42.359
starting shortstop. But he's one to
pencil in later on in your drafts as

1302
01:33:42.359 --> 01:33:45.479
somebody who might contribute in a couple
of categories, not power, and he

1303
01:33:45.560 --> 01:33:48.840
may not have a full time job, but the Yeah, he was one

1304
01:33:49.119 --> 01:33:53.159
that I had on my list here
too. This is a guy who like

1305
01:33:53.479 --> 01:33:59.760
literally barely late or like what four
years mm hm. His minor league track

1306
01:34:00.279 --> 01:34:04.079
record was very little. I remember
watching a broadcast of the Mariners and they

1307
01:34:04.079 --> 01:34:08.840
were talking about how they always really
liked his skill set, he just couldn't

1308
01:34:08.840 --> 01:34:13.079
stay on the field. We're talking
like two hundred and fifty played appearances since

1309
01:34:13.159 --> 01:34:16.800
like COVID before the major leagues last
year. Yeah, so like in part,

1310
01:34:16.840 --> 01:34:20.680
I'm like, man, how much
do we really know about this who

1311
01:34:20.720 --> 01:34:25.199
this guy is as a hitter as
a whole. But yeah, I mean

1312
01:34:25.239 --> 01:34:28.760
I think you're you're super right about
the stolen bases, and I think playing

1313
01:34:28.800 --> 01:34:30.960
time there and we know what happens
when the Rays get their hands on some

1314
01:34:31.039 --> 01:34:34.720
of these types, they whether it
be a platoon situation or what have you,

1315
01:34:34.840 --> 01:34:41.600
kind of optimize their production. His
exsitveilos as a whole are below average.

1316
01:34:41.640 --> 01:34:46.039
He's a little bit in that Essak
Prete's mold where he pulls the absolute

1317
01:34:46.159 --> 01:34:49.399
piss out of the fly balls that
he hits, just pulls them down the

1318
01:34:49.439 --> 01:34:51.840
line like, and he hits quite
a few fly balls. He has a

1319
01:34:51.840 --> 01:34:56.399
little bit less power, I think
than Pretis. But I also think he

1320
01:34:56.439 --> 01:35:00.680
was a little unlucky with the homers
last year, both playing in seatle and

1321
01:35:00.960 --> 01:35:03.760
I just baseline was a little bit
unlucky to only run a five percent home

1322
01:35:03.840 --> 01:35:09.279
run to flyball ratio. I don't
think it's crazy to expect that to be

1323
01:35:09.680 --> 01:35:14.199
close to ten percent next year,
and that could mean the difference between five

1324
01:35:14.239 --> 01:35:18.600
homers and twelve in not full playing
time. So he's another one like the

1325
01:35:19.039 --> 01:35:24.840
Power, might play a little bit
better than you think if it all breaks

1326
01:35:24.920 --> 01:35:27.800
right for him. So just with
a little bit of flyball walk he might

1327
01:35:27.840 --> 01:35:30.439
he might hit some more home than
you think too, just a testament to

1328
01:35:30.520 --> 01:35:34.079
the guy's skill set. He played
in fifty two games the COVID break the

1329
01:35:34.119 --> 01:35:39.079
COVID nine season, then walked into
the major leagues and was a ninety six

1330
01:35:39.279 --> 01:35:43.359
WRC plus guy. And to be
fair, a lot of that was a

1331
01:35:43.399 --> 01:35:47.680
really great start to his season,
and he did tail off significantly towards the

1332
01:35:47.760 --> 01:35:50.840
end of the year as the league
adjusted to him. But I also think

1333
01:35:50.880 --> 01:35:55.600
some of that was just some bad
luck catching up with him as well,

1334
01:35:55.680 --> 01:35:59.720
And he's probably in between those two
things. So I just really like him.

1335
01:35:59.840 --> 01:36:03.600
He's a fun player to watch,
and those twelve Tampa fans that exists,

1336
01:36:03.920 --> 01:36:09.000
you're going to enjoy his game style. I think he's somebody that makes

1337
01:36:09.000 --> 01:36:13.119
you like him just with the way
he plays, and he's somebody that I

1338
01:36:13.199 --> 01:36:15.920
enjoyed watching for the Mariners last year. Yeah, that's a good calu,

1339
01:36:15.000 --> 01:36:20.319
all right. And the other guy, funnally has a much longer track record

1340
01:36:20.399 --> 01:36:26.760
than Caballero did. But I've just
never heard anybody talk about this guy.

1341
01:36:26.960 --> 01:36:30.000
And he's he's going into his age
thirty one season. So like again,

1342
01:36:30.159 --> 01:36:34.399
this is not a prospect of any
stripe die Ron Blanco. Can you even

1343
01:36:34.479 --> 01:36:39.239
name what team he plays for?
The Royals? Nailed it. Nate's a

1344
01:36:39.239 --> 01:36:42.359
deep league guy, he knows.
But this skill set, this is somebody

1345
01:36:42.359 --> 01:36:45.680
that I came across in one of
my medium deep leagues when I really needed

1346
01:36:45.720 --> 01:36:49.560
some stolen bases. Part way through
the year I'd lost one of my main

1347
01:36:49.640 --> 01:36:54.720
stolen based threat. Blanco was getting
some run over the summer for the Royals.

1348
01:36:54.920 --> 01:37:00.199
Ended up right behind Cabairo I think, at twenty eighth overall in steels

1349
01:37:00.359 --> 01:37:04.640
last season in even less playing time. So the guy had one hundred and

1350
01:37:04.640 --> 01:37:10.520
thirty eight played appearances and stole twenty
four bases in TRIPLEA, where he spent

1351
01:37:10.720 --> 01:37:13.560
most of the year. In two
hundred and eight plate appearances, he's still

1352
01:37:13.680 --> 01:37:17.720
forty seven bases. That's top of
the scale in stealing skill. I'd say

1353
01:37:17.840 --> 01:37:21.640
the guys that led the major leagues
last year or minor leagues last year,

1354
01:37:21.760 --> 01:37:27.319
Chandler Simpson and Victor Scott. They
I think were ninety five and ninety four

1355
01:37:27.359 --> 01:37:30.520
respectively, or ninety six and ninety
five, something like that. But in

1356
01:37:30.760 --> 01:37:34.680
like five hundred some plate appearances,
in way less than half of the plate

1357
01:37:34.680 --> 01:37:40.239
appearances, he got to half of
their steel total. This is a real

1358
01:37:40.359 --> 01:37:45.159
skill for Blanco. He is I
think, not even that good of a

1359
01:37:45.159 --> 01:37:48.520
defender. I mean, it's maybe
above average defender in the outfield, not

1360
01:37:48.880 --> 01:37:54.119
any power to speak of or to
write home about. He hit fourteen homers

1361
01:37:54.159 --> 01:37:57.199
in twenty twenty two and that was
his high water mark, so it's not

1362
01:37:57.439 --> 01:38:00.319
nothing. I don't know. I
think just because he's thirty going on thirty

1363
01:38:00.319 --> 01:38:05.359
one that nobody cares. But this
in roto leagues, especially deeper leagues,

1364
01:38:05.520 --> 01:38:09.479
how are you not excited about this? It's not like the Royals are.

1365
01:38:09.920 --> 01:38:13.880
I have a fully stacked you know, sent them and forget him trio of

1366
01:38:13.960 --> 01:38:18.119
vutfielders out there. I kind of
think Blanco's gonna get another three hundred plate

1367
01:38:18.159 --> 01:38:21.720
appearances next year. Maybe maybe not
quite that many, but I don't think

1368
01:38:21.760 --> 01:38:26.319
it would be crazy to see it, and if he did, like probably

1369
01:38:26.359 --> 01:38:30.760
another thirty forty seals. So Blanco's
another one again, deep league roto focused

1370
01:38:30.760 --> 01:38:33.119
because you're not going to get a
whole lot else out of the profile.

1371
01:38:33.159 --> 01:38:39.079
But I was so impressed with the
production, and as a as a category

1372
01:38:39.159 --> 01:38:42.800
specialist, he's somebody. He's a
name to file away. Talking about the

1373
01:38:42.840 --> 01:38:47.800
Rays New Rays. Richie Pelacios is
kind of interesting to me. Mm hmmm

1374
01:38:48.000 --> 01:38:51.359
hm. Drafted in the third round
by the Guardians, kind of a classic

1375
01:38:51.560 --> 01:38:55.840
Cleveland sort of hitter, and then
of course he was with the Cardinals and

1376
01:38:55.840 --> 01:38:59.800
then they did it again. They
traded an outfielder away. But Placios ninety

1377
01:39:00.119 --> 01:39:03.760
seven percentile in strikeouts in a good
way. It's lots of ground balls,

1378
01:39:03.760 --> 01:39:08.359
but he also puts it in the
air slightly above league average, and he

1379
01:39:08.399 --> 01:39:12.439
popped more home runs than he had
ever before in twenty twenty three, hit

1380
01:39:12.600 --> 01:39:15.359
six and he did that with like
a plus twenty percent home run to fly

1381
01:39:15.479 --> 01:39:23.279
ball rate, which is probably unsustainable
considering like his hard hit rate is bottom

1382
01:39:23.359 --> 01:39:28.640
of the barrel. This five sixteen
slug far exceeded is minor league anything he

1383
01:39:28.680 --> 01:39:30.640
did in the minors, and he
ran like a two thirty four babbit.

1384
01:39:30.880 --> 01:39:34.079
It's very passive. It doesn't really
like walk a lot. It's only two

1385
01:39:34.159 --> 01:39:38.920
hundred and twenty five played appearances into
his major league career, and like what

1386
01:39:39.239 --> 01:39:44.399
roster resource has him like platooning right
now? Chance for some playing time?

1387
01:39:44.760 --> 01:39:47.039
Okay, man, he was like
ninety one WRC plus last year. I

1388
01:39:47.079 --> 01:39:50.399
don't know eye contact. I'm not
going to strike out. I don't think

1389
01:39:50.439 --> 01:39:55.479
he's gonna steal a ton of bases, but maybe maybe he's gonna do a

1390
01:39:55.479 --> 01:39:59.399
little bit more damage to the meets
that eye. I haven't watched a ton

1391
01:39:59.439 --> 01:40:04.239
of plus, but I do think
that there's a real hitter here, both

1392
01:40:04.319 --> 01:40:10.880
in giving the Rays credence in they're
pretty good at picking these guys and pretty

1393
01:40:10.880 --> 01:40:14.840
good at maximizing, so they're going
to put them in situations to succeed,

1394
01:40:15.119 --> 01:40:19.800
and some decent components here, I
would say for fantasy, I'm not sure.

1395
01:40:20.239 --> 01:40:24.840
I'm not sure, like it's going
to be a big boost in any

1396
01:40:24.880 --> 01:40:29.920
one particular category. So it's not
like you can count on him to chip

1397
01:40:29.960 --> 01:40:33.000
in steels or chip in homers or
even average. I'm not sure he's going

1398
01:40:33.079 --> 01:40:39.880
to run super high averages or on
base clips. But he's he's an interesting

1399
01:40:40.199 --> 01:40:44.239
hitter, and I like him like
slab hitter, but but like that or

1400
01:40:44.279 --> 01:40:47.000
something. I don't know. His
max cvs six percentile, his average is

1401
01:40:47.039 --> 01:40:51.640
twenty fifth percentile, and then his
flyball ev is seventy fourth percentile. The

1402
01:40:51.720 --> 01:40:56.039
Rays do like that, right,
like optimize your flyballs. Yeah, I

1403
01:40:56.039 --> 01:41:00.319
mean this strikeout rate last year was
ten point eight percent. Maybe a really

1404
01:41:00.399 --> 01:41:03.039
high contact, good eye guy who's
kind of learned how to hit for a

1405
01:41:03.039 --> 01:41:06.000
little bit of power. I don't
know. It's kind of interesting, yeah,

1406
01:41:06.039 --> 01:41:11.319
definitely. I don't know. I
wasn't a big like Stuart Fairchild guy

1407
01:41:11.359 --> 01:41:13.760
when he was a prospect and he
was like a second round pick, but

1408
01:41:13.880 --> 01:41:18.159
kind of maybe a little interesting obp
and speed guy hits too many ground balls,

1409
01:41:18.159 --> 01:41:21.640
and another guy doesn't necessarily hit the
ball like real hard or anything like

1410
01:41:21.680 --> 01:41:25.199
that, but he's got a good
like home run to fly ball rate.

1411
01:41:25.439 --> 01:41:28.880
Just kind of wondering if there's maybe
a little bit of a of a sneaky

1412
01:41:28.960 --> 01:41:33.920
sort of like power speed chipping combo
here eighty six percentile solid contact, fifty

1413
01:41:33.960 --> 01:41:38.520
one percentile barrels. He doesn't make
like a lot of weak contact. I

1414
01:41:38.560 --> 01:41:41.199
don't know. I just wonder if
we're just like maybe a smidge off of

1415
01:41:41.239 --> 01:41:44.960
like some calibration here of him maybe
being a little bit more excited, Like

1416
01:41:45.079 --> 01:41:47.439
strikehouts were always kind of like a
big thing for me. He's good defensively.

1417
01:41:47.720 --> 01:41:50.800
His kra was as high as thirty
eight percent in the miners, but

1418
01:41:50.920 --> 01:41:55.840
he's cut them way down to be
fair. His high k rates were mostly

1419
01:41:56.000 --> 01:42:00.560
in small samples. Was more.
Yeah, he was more like mid to

1420
01:42:00.680 --> 01:42:04.439
low twenties guy for most of his
minor league career. Oh okay, his

1421
01:42:04.640 --> 01:42:09.239
exivelocity stuff isn't real great. But
if we if you maximize it like you

1422
01:42:09.239 --> 01:42:13.640
can't, like we've seen, you
know, fifteen twenty home run types guys

1423
01:42:13.640 --> 01:42:16.279
that hit the ball this this weekly, if you will, like some of

1424
01:42:16.319 --> 01:42:20.399
the stuff with Fairchild is a little
bit like Tyro Estrada who hit fourteen home

1425
01:42:20.479 --> 01:42:26.159
runs last year. I think he
hit the ball even like softer than Fairchild

1426
01:42:26.479 --> 01:42:30.920
in that ballpark. Fangraft says him
is potentially platuning as well, maybe a

1427
01:42:30.960 --> 01:42:32.520
little bit of an interesting guy,
who could you know. I know that

1428
01:42:32.560 --> 01:42:36.880
they are kind of jammed up in
the infield and talking about playing steer in

1429
01:42:36.960 --> 01:42:40.520
the outfield and stuff like, you
know, if they want some more defense

1430
01:42:40.840 --> 01:42:44.279
on some days, like a fairchild
is probably their guy. And some chipping

1431
01:42:44.399 --> 01:42:47.119
counting stats that could be a little
interesting. I could see it digging around.

1432
01:42:47.520 --> 01:42:49.680
Not a guy that I paid a
lot of attention to before, but

1433
01:42:49.920 --> 01:42:54.640
Josh H. Smith of the Rangers, now I know we're now talking about

1434
01:42:54.640 --> 01:42:57.840
guys that are rostered less than some
of our b sides, Matt. But

1435
01:42:57.920 --> 01:43:00.239
smith Man, he now, I
know playing time with the Rangers is going

1436
01:43:00.319 --> 01:43:03.399
to be tough to get on the
field. Fangrafts as him as like a

1437
01:43:03.399 --> 01:43:09.439
bench guy. But there's some interesting
looking contact skills with a guy who's like

1438
01:43:09.560 --> 01:43:14.920
maximizing probably what he has home run
wise, talking like seventy eight percentile zone

1439
01:43:14.960 --> 01:43:20.319
contact. Guy who doesn't chase eighty
six percentile chase his exit velocities, I

1440
01:43:20.319 --> 01:43:25.720
mean thirty third percentile, thirty second
forty nine percent. So, but he

1441
01:43:25.760 --> 01:43:29.279
pulls the ball at a forty seven
percent clip, hits it in the air

1442
01:43:29.520 --> 01:43:32.760
thirty six point six percent of the
time, which is sixty six percentile.

1443
01:43:32.880 --> 01:43:35.960
Maybe a decent little hitter here,
and he plays all over the infield.

1444
01:43:36.359 --> 01:43:41.000
Kind of an interesting bad He's not
very old hasn't played a whole lot in

1445
01:43:41.000 --> 01:43:43.079
the bigs. I don't know,
maybe just a guy who was like,

1446
01:43:43.079 --> 01:43:45.600
oh, I think you might be
better than than I thought you were.

1447
01:43:46.239 --> 01:43:49.920
All right, Well, that's Matt
and I getting dirty in the bigs or

1448
01:43:49.960 --> 01:43:55.359
trying to. I don't know.
Hopefully we maybe touched on a few guys

1449
01:43:55.359 --> 01:43:59.359
that might be helpful in some of
your leagues. We talk out loud and

1450
01:43:59.399 --> 01:44:01.199
talk some of these guys out,
you know how it is. Every season

1451
01:44:01.239 --> 01:44:06.119
there's somebody that quote comes from nowhere
and improves. But these are some guys

1452
01:44:06.119 --> 01:44:12.239
that I think aren't aren't quite totally
written off, still have some potential make

1453
01:44:12.279 --> 01:44:15.880
some improvements, have made some improvements
a little off from more exciting production in

1454
01:44:15.960 --> 01:44:19.199
the majors. Absolutely, I don't
know what we're going to talk about next

1455
01:44:19.199 --> 01:44:21.760
time. I actually, man,
I kind of want to talk about some

1456
01:44:21.840 --> 01:44:25.840
pitching. We can do that.
We've we've talked about my hitters for a

1457
01:44:25.920 --> 01:44:29.880
little bit. Yeah, there's there's
some arms that are similar like this as

1458
01:44:29.920 --> 01:44:33.279
far as age and lack of popularity, and you know, arms were probably

1459
01:44:33.560 --> 01:44:39.560
I mean, they're always more exciting, but the potential of taking the potential

1460
01:44:39.640 --> 01:44:43.720
for taking a big jump might be
there more so for for some arms and

1461
01:44:43.760 --> 01:44:46.199
some bats. But we also got
a new toy that I've been playing a

1462
01:44:46.279 --> 01:44:48.680
lot with. I don't know if
you have been, but maybe we'll talk

1463
01:44:48.720 --> 01:44:53.119
about some of that next time too, maybe. Yeah, I mean I

1464
01:44:53.279 --> 01:44:59.359
figured you want to because Reedvon Scooter
is a damn star there and what are

1465
01:44:59.359 --> 01:45:01.960
you looking at? It's pretty impressive, man. But there. You can

1466
01:45:01.960 --> 01:45:06.279
follow me along on Twitter at Pitching
Specs, catch Matt in the Dynasty,

1467
01:45:06.399 --> 01:45:11.880
dugout Discord chatting away and we're getting
closer to the season, Matt, I

1468
01:45:11.920 --> 01:45:16.399
can't wait, talking about so close. Yeah, finally start to get into

1469
01:45:16.439 --> 01:45:23.319
some some drafts, some dispersal drafts, some fypds like oh, we're so

1470
01:45:23.399 --> 01:45:26.199
close. All right, Well,
let Chicago Farmer take us out. We'll

1471
01:45:26.199 --> 01:45:29.039
talk to you next time. Do
well. Peace. It was an hour

1472
01:45:29.520 --> 01:45:35.720
riding to his head. You have
it down first with the lump boneyus face,

1473
01:45:36.319 --> 01:45:45.800
and on the very next pitch he
up and stole second face with greatst

1474
01:45:45.119 --> 01:45:54.720
speed. He wasn't born. He
had the dirty Yes uniform.