WEBVTT 1 00:00:08.199 --> 00:00:14.599 You are listening to Redefining Energy. Your co hosts from Berlin Gerard Reed and 2 00:00:14.720 --> 00:00:21.760 from London Laurent segalin today on really defending energy job, We're going to talk 3 00:00:21.800 --> 00:00:28.679 about French nuclear Oh la la. But first award from our partner. This 4 00:00:28.839 --> 00:00:34.000 podcast is powered by Expo, an international leader in providing sustainable energy solutions for 5 00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:38.960 the future. Yeah, ja aulla Llah. But first question is why should 6 00:00:39.000 --> 00:00:44.200 the ninety seven percent non FRENCHI listener be interested in the fate of French nuclear 7 00:00:44.960 --> 00:00:48.399 And I can tell you it's because, whether we like it or not, 8 00:00:49.000 --> 00:00:53.719 the health of the French nuclear fleet is a key component of europe security of 9 00:00:53.759 --> 00:00:58.600 supply and energy price levels and by the way, de carbonization, Yeah, 10 00:00:58.799 --> 00:01:03.680 Europe and beyond Europe. A well functioning French nuclear fleet reduces the amount of 11 00:01:03.719 --> 00:01:11.239 imported ler G absolutely absolutely. So. We have this fleet of fifty six 12 00:01:11.760 --> 00:01:19.159 reactors, sixty gigawatts, managed by a single company, and it represents between 13 00:01:19.359 --> 00:01:23.760 ten and fifteen percent of detricy consuming the continent. And if you just account 14 00:01:23.879 --> 00:01:30.000 for zero carbon sources, it's even a much larger part. And that's been 15 00:01:30.040 --> 00:01:34.239 really clear. It was also an incredible feat of engineering. The building of 16 00:01:34.319 --> 00:01:38.920 them and how fast they were built really incredible. Yeah, but look, 17 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:45.680 twenty years ago EDF was the most powerful utility in the world. They were 18 00:01:45.719 --> 00:01:52.000 producing four loat and twenty hour and they were privatized. They reached two hundred 19 00:01:52.079 --> 00:02:00.519 billion eurovaluation and twenty years later they are plagued by debt losses. Fully time 20 00:02:00.560 --> 00:02:07.159 government intervention, IDIF had to be renationalized. So it's a bit of a 21 00:02:07.200 --> 00:02:12.960 fallen angel. It's one way about that, Lauran, It's a French disaster. 22 00:02:15.000 --> 00:02:17.560 We don't want to re litigate the past. We don't want to engage 23 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:25.319 in sterile discussion about whether nuclear is the solution, a solution not a solution. 24 00:02:27.319 --> 00:02:30.680 We have to live with. The simple facts is that for the past 25 00:02:30.680 --> 00:02:35.240 thirty years, the French new fleet has been the backbone of the open energy 26 00:02:35.280 --> 00:02:39.479 system and it's going to continue to be so in the coming decades. So 27 00:02:39.599 --> 00:02:45.080 around do you think Europe can rely on a French nuclear fleet come forward? 28 00:02:45.840 --> 00:02:47.840 I have my opinion, but at the end of the day, it's better 29 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:53.039 to have a real expert discussed with us that matter, and our guess this 30 00:02:53.159 --> 00:03:00.960 week is Emeric de Vigan and is the former EDF Energy trader and he was 31 00:03:00.000 --> 00:03:06.039 in charge of trading the power from the all nuclear fleet. So Emeric know 32 00:03:06.199 --> 00:03:13.280 what is talking about. Is now head of Kepler Energy with a leading subscription 33 00:03:13.439 --> 00:03:16.960 based data analytics platform. They'll bring a lot of real time market data and 34 00:03:17.520 --> 00:03:23.960 really Emeric knows what's going on in the nuclear fleet, probably even better than 35 00:03:23.159 --> 00:03:29.800 edf itself. Well, let's bring him on the show. Emeric, welcome 36 00:03:29.840 --> 00:03:34.080 to the show. Thank you for having me. Emic. We've been new 37 00:03:34.159 --> 00:03:38.560 to talk about French nuclear So what's your current assessment of the situation right now? 38 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:46.599 The current situation of the French nuclear is a big concern. Was the 39 00:03:46.879 --> 00:03:51.599 French nuclear fleet used to produce round form? What our was? It did 40 00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:55.439 produce less than he and our last year. You can use whatever what you 41 00:03:55.520 --> 00:04:00.560 want, catastrophe, industrial accidents, but in any case, twenty twenty two 42 00:04:00.759 --> 00:04:06.400 was incredibly low, lower than anyone would have ever expected from the French nuclear 43 00:04:06.479 --> 00:04:12.520 fleet. So ahead of us, there's more question than answers how much can 44 00:04:12.560 --> 00:04:16.040 we produce this year in twenty twenty three? We know what should be above 45 00:04:16.079 --> 00:04:21.519 three hundred tower, which is better but far from being great. What is 46 00:04:21.560 --> 00:04:26.920 more of a concern is the target that we are reading in the news for 47 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:32.000 the coming years where some French government officials are saying we should aim for three 48 00:04:32.040 --> 00:04:36.399 hundred and sixty t tower, which is in its ap still extremely low and 49 00:04:36.480 --> 00:04:43.439 in my opinion, probably not ambitious enough to have abundant and cheap electricity in 50 00:04:43.519 --> 00:04:46.279 France. But also across your can I ask you that when you just talk 51 00:04:46.319 --> 00:04:50.079 about it's not ambitious enough. When I look at that number, I sort 52 00:04:50.120 --> 00:04:54.920 of think I don't even know how you're going to hit us. So for 53 00:04:55.000 --> 00:04:58.560 me, that's incredibly ambitious. What am I missing? Well, I think 54 00:04:58.600 --> 00:05:01.959 that's the big issue we all having Looking at the French earlier performance, we 55 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:06.680 got used to poor performance, and this is why it's very important to look 56 00:05:06.879 --> 00:05:14.040 beyond Front and look at the performance of nuclear generation in other countries where the 57 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:19.720 availability factor is close to seventy five eighty eighty five percent, potentially ninety percent, 58 00:05:20.199 --> 00:05:25.120 while in Front we hamming for sixty or seventy percent. We should have 59 00:05:25.399 --> 00:05:29.560 much more ambitious targets. Again, we used to produce four hundred ter what 60 00:05:29.680 --> 00:05:33.639 hours, okay, and the two reactors that person times are not running anymore, 61 00:05:33.959 --> 00:05:38.639 But we were actually not producing four hundred We were producing four hundred and 62 00:05:38.680 --> 00:05:44.800 twenty, So clearly producing four hundred ter tower should be feasible. And the 63 00:05:44.879 --> 00:05:48.000 reason I'm saying that also is that we know we could do upgrades that some 64 00:05:48.079 --> 00:05:55.279 other countries did increasing the power of the reactor, which doesn't require such a 65 00:05:55.360 --> 00:06:00.040 huge amount of work. You have been in charge of trading short term that 66 00:06:00.199 --> 00:06:05.839 nuclear fleet when you're at TEDF trading, And what a lot of market participants 67 00:06:05.879 --> 00:06:13.600 always complaining is that there is this system called REMIT where every producer is supposed 68 00:06:13.639 --> 00:06:17.639 to put forward or announce the plan too are not going to work, And 69 00:06:17.800 --> 00:06:25.240 the EDF had the bad reputation of not really abiding to its own short term 70 00:06:25.439 --> 00:06:30.720 prediction. So was it a bit of insider trading or how do you analyze 71 00:06:30.759 --> 00:06:33.439 that? Well? First, and I'm being very honest here, there's no 72 00:06:33.480 --> 00:06:40.360 insider trading at TEDF. Clearly detect the REMIT regulation very seriously, but it's 73 00:06:40.399 --> 00:06:46.720 true and reality. There is an issue with the quality of the REMIT messages 74 00:06:46.759 --> 00:06:50.480 that are published by IDF. There's a various explanations for that. The one 75 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:57.759 DF always said that these REMIT messages are not meant to be a forecast of 76 00:06:57.800 --> 00:07:01.920 the availability or unavailability of the future. It's a view of when we're going 77 00:07:02.000 --> 00:07:08.079 to do our maintenances. See it's causing in my opinion, two issues. 78 00:07:08.639 --> 00:07:11.839 One is the impact on the price. Because of the quality of the REMIT 79 00:07:11.879 --> 00:07:15.199 messages, is not easy for traders to get a feel for what the forward 80 00:07:15.240 --> 00:07:21.560 availability will be, saying that some companies like Kepler have their own forecast which 81 00:07:21.639 --> 00:07:27.079 are a lot more reliable than what IDEF is publishing. The second question it 82 00:07:27.199 --> 00:07:31.959 raises is more in terms of reputation. People, as you think very quickly 83 00:07:32.120 --> 00:07:38.439 link the poor quality of these messages to a willingness to manipulate the market, 84 00:07:38.839 --> 00:07:43.800 which I think is sad. And also you always wonder how IDIF is not 85 00:07:44.240 --> 00:07:49.000 actually able to correctly forecast the lens of their maintenances. You know, when 86 00:07:49.000 --> 00:07:54.959 you look in other industries like the oil business, chemical business, which are 87 00:07:55.319 --> 00:07:59.879 not less complex than the nuclear business, any maintenance that is meant to last 88 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:05.720 months last month was on the nuclear reit any maintenance last at least ten or 89 00:08:05.759 --> 00:08:09.800 twenty percent longer than initially planned, which is a bit of an issue from 90 00:08:11.319 --> 00:08:15.480 a reputation point of view. Can I ask you just so I perfectly understand 91 00:08:15.480 --> 00:08:18.199 this IDIOF comes out with a protection and says we're going to produce x amount 92 00:08:18.199 --> 00:08:22.199 of power. Tell me what happens if they don't produce that amount of power? 93 00:08:22.800 --> 00:08:28.560 A mott of the financial implications for media. There's two things here. 94 00:08:28.920 --> 00:08:33.399 IDEOF rounds two kinds of forecasts. One is a direct forecast that they used 95 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:37.639 to issue as a listed company saying we would produce three hundred and fifty hour 96 00:08:37.840 --> 00:08:43.200 of electricity with our nuclear fleet this year. In my opinion, they used 97 00:08:43.200 --> 00:08:46.000 to take this this target pretty seriously. They used to revisit it through the 98 00:08:46.080 --> 00:08:50.279 year, but it used to be quite accurate. That's one thing. The 99 00:08:50.320 --> 00:08:56.200 other thing is everything that falls under this REMIT regulation where they simply forecast the 100 00:08:56.519 --> 00:09:01.360 unavailability of the units unplanned or planted, so they have to publish everything. 101 00:09:01.960 --> 00:09:07.919 If they don't publish an outage and an availability, then they could get fined 102 00:09:07.919 --> 00:09:11.559 by the regulator. But that's not really the issue. The real question is 103 00:09:11.679 --> 00:09:16.639 this REMIT regulation inside the trading market, manipulation, etc. The real question 104 00:09:16.840 --> 00:09:22.559 is why IDIF is not able to produce more because this is what costs money, 105 00:09:22.679 --> 00:09:26.120 because it's some power they can't sell or the market, or worse that 106 00:09:26.159 --> 00:09:31.399 they have to buy back on the market because most of the nuclear generation is 107 00:09:31.399 --> 00:09:37.200 sold forward, so whenever something unplanned happens and IDIOF has to replace this power 108 00:09:37.360 --> 00:09:41.720 with some volumes coming from the wholesale markets exactly. And that's where I'm coming 109 00:09:41.759 --> 00:09:45.919 from. The whole thing is that. So if what you've got is unplanned 110 00:09:45.919 --> 00:09:48.559 outages, then what ends up happening is IDIF has a loss because you've sold 111 00:09:48.600 --> 00:09:50.919 the power forward at a certain price and then you have to buy a back 112 00:09:52.000 --> 00:09:54.360 delivery. Right, That's what happened. So then what I don't understand is 113 00:09:56.600 --> 00:10:01.919 why it's so difficult to go and sort out maintenance within IDF. And again, 114 00:10:03.200 --> 00:10:05.600 if I look across the rest of the world, I don't see this 115 00:10:05.720 --> 00:10:09.519 number one and number two. We're living in a let's call it a renewables 116 00:10:09.559 --> 00:10:13.600 world where every day got the wind changing, the sun changing, and we're 117 00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:18.120 doing predictions on a real time basis, and m I sort of getting it 118 00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:22.600 right. But we can't do this in nuclear in French nuclears. I explain 119 00:10:22.720 --> 00:10:24.639 this to me, I just I can't get my head around it. Yeah, 120 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:28.679 we'd agree with what you're saying. We've got to realize that it's an 121 00:10:28.720 --> 00:10:35.440 industry with a lot of Nurcia, and until twenty nineteen hotel prices were on 122 00:10:35.559 --> 00:10:39.559 what fifty years permega what tower, So maybe at that time it was not 123 00:10:39.759 --> 00:10:43.759 that costly to have low availability or you know, do not produce as much 124 00:10:43.799 --> 00:10:50.159 as possible. So maybe at that time they haven't done the investments into you 125 00:10:50.159 --> 00:10:54.919 know, improving the weathery're running the maintenances. Now there's those explanations which I 126 00:10:54.960 --> 00:11:00.440 have to give here. Whenever you speak to people at DF they tell you 127 00:11:00.519 --> 00:11:05.480 that the regulator is extremely firm or tough, not sure about the right word 128 00:11:05.559 --> 00:11:11.679 there. So whenever they're running maintenances, it's not only tendard maintenances that they're 129 00:11:11.720 --> 00:11:16.240 running, but they're also upgrading a lot of the systems at the unit, 130 00:11:16.519 --> 00:11:20.120 which explains why the maintenances lasts longer than expected. You know, they love 131 00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:26.320 to say that it's basically bringing generation three nuclear to generation four nuclear what they're 132 00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:31.320 doing during the maintenances. So I guess that explains a little bit why all 133 00:11:31.360 --> 00:11:37.320 this takes a lot longer than in any other country. But in any case, 134 00:11:37.440 --> 00:11:41.360 I think it's only now with this energic csis that we have seen in 135 00:11:41.399 --> 00:11:46.399 the last two years that we start realizing how costly this can be, which 136 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:50.799 is a bit frustrating. Now, it's not really a secret that EDF has 137 00:11:50.840 --> 00:12:00.720 been always lookwarm about a pure liberalization of the energy market. And although they 138 00:12:00.840 --> 00:12:03.480 like it very much, you know in country like the UK where they could 139 00:12:03.519 --> 00:12:09.399 gain market share through liberalization, in France the new that liberalization was only a 140 00:12:09.440 --> 00:12:13.320 way to lose market share in a certain way because they started at one dred 141 00:12:13.320 --> 00:12:20.399 percent. And so my interpretation is that they've tried a lot of tricks in 142 00:12:20.440 --> 00:12:24.120 the book and you'll tell me if they are a perpetrator or victim, but 143 00:12:24.200 --> 00:12:30.360 they end up with that weird market mechanism called the arene. So can you 144 00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:33.120 explain a bit what it is? And at the end, why is this 145 00:12:33.279 --> 00:12:39.360 price not fixed by the market but by some bureaucrats or the assembly. Yeah, 146 00:12:39.399 --> 00:12:43.399 and it is this mechanism where has to sell one hundred tower of nuclear 147 00:12:43.720 --> 00:12:50.360 generation to its competitors, competitors on the retail business, not on the generation 148 00:12:50.480 --> 00:12:56.679 business of course. So every year there's an auction where the retailers can order 149 00:12:58.000 --> 00:13:01.639 this nuclear generation at forty two year euros. There are rules on how much 150 00:13:01.759 --> 00:13:07.519 they can buy depends on how much their portfolio NEEDSTA. I won't go into 151 00:13:07.519 --> 00:13:11.480 all the details there. The issue with this mechanism, in my opinion, 152 00:13:11.639 --> 00:13:16.039 is not really the price. I know that now that prices are one hundred 153 00:13:16.080 --> 00:13:20.840 and fifty euros permegaba tower we seek forty two looks incredibly low. But honestly, 154 00:13:20.879 --> 00:13:24.519 two or three years ago, it seems to me that if you was 155 00:13:24.559 --> 00:13:28.279 happy with this forty two euros, or would have been incredibly happy with forty 156 00:13:28.320 --> 00:13:31.679 six or fourteen auros per mega whatever. So I don't think it miles away 157 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:37.840 from what it costs ID have to produce this nuclear electricity. The biggo trube 158 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:43.279 with the AREND is the optionality. The retailers can buy this electricity when the 159 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:48.440 market price is above this forty two euros permegaba tower, and can also decide 160 00:13:48.480 --> 00:13:52.840 to not buy when prices are below this level, which is what happened in 161 00:13:52.919 --> 00:14:00.639 twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, if I'm not mistaken. So it's mechanism that 162 00:14:00.720 --> 00:14:07.000 is far from being perfect. Again, mainly with its optionality. I don't 163 00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:11.639 think IDEF is really a victim of the price, because also let's not forget 164 00:14:11.639 --> 00:14:16.679 that this electriested that is purchased at forty two euros Permegaba tower is sold back 165 00:14:16.720 --> 00:14:20.919 to back to the end user, so the money doesn't go into retailers pocket. 166 00:14:20.519 --> 00:14:26.559 This forty two euros benefits the French end user who determines the forty one 167 00:14:26.679 --> 00:14:31.399 or the forty six. Or there must be a guy or three guys in 168 00:14:31.440 --> 00:14:35.360 a room and say it's forty one or it's forty six. So who are 169 00:14:35.399 --> 00:14:39.960 those guys? Honestly, I can't tell you. I think it's exactly what 170 00:14:39.000 --> 00:14:43.519 you're saying. It's a few guys in a room. There's this very funny 171 00:14:43.559 --> 00:14:46.600 video that you can find on the internet. While the head of the French 172 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:50.240 regulator said, well, you know, this discussion is not very scientific. 173 00:14:50.480 --> 00:14:54.919 At the end it's forty two because it's not forty three. And that's really 174 00:14:54.919 --> 00:15:00.720 what he declared in the parliament. That way of fixing a price. It 175 00:15:00.759 --> 00:15:07.360 is very reminiscent of what happened on the Uzbek cotton price fixing between the Uzbek 176 00:15:07.399 --> 00:15:15.039 cotton producer back in the early fifties and the Soviet textile consumer and they could 177 00:15:15.039 --> 00:15:18.519 not find the correct price of cotton and there was no market mechanism. And 178 00:15:18.559 --> 00:15:22.320 at the end, it's Joseph studying in person what to determine the price of 179 00:15:22.320 --> 00:15:28.879 the usbek cotton. I mean, why, why can't they have a normal 180 00:15:28.919 --> 00:15:33.000 functioning market or is it really the nature of nuclear? How do you see 181 00:15:33.039 --> 00:15:35.559 that? I don't think it's the nature of nuclear because I think in a 182 00:15:35.559 --> 00:15:41.360 lot of other countries like the US or Finland, the operators are able to 183 00:15:41.399 --> 00:15:46.000 give their costs, their cash costs. The issue in front, in my 184 00:15:46.120 --> 00:15:50.759 opinion, is that we love to see different costs on nuclear. You have 185 00:15:50.840 --> 00:15:54.240 the cash cost, you have the accounting costs, you know, taking into 186 00:15:54.240 --> 00:16:00.480 account the future investment that are needed to expend the lifespan of the station. 187 00:16:00.639 --> 00:16:03.120 So you know, we'd love to make things complicated so that they're not transparent. 188 00:16:03.759 --> 00:16:07.960 And that's clearly the issue because you see what it's leading us today where 189 00:16:08.159 --> 00:16:12.120 you have on the one end the regulator that leaked the documents saying one of 190 00:16:12.159 --> 00:16:18.960 the costs of producing a new charactistic sixty one years Permegawa tower. If says 191 00:16:18.120 --> 00:16:22.759 no, it's seventy eight euros, and would even love from what I have 192 00:16:22.960 --> 00:16:26.279 to get more, you know, ninety yuros Permegawa tower. So we are 193 00:16:26.320 --> 00:16:33.399 really struggling with this lack of transparency because there's no proper formula to calculate discussed. 194 00:16:33.480 --> 00:16:37.559 Which is I agree with you, which is watching edible when you think 195 00:16:37.559 --> 00:16:41.879 about it? Because the nuclear nation infants is a monopoly. Can I switch 196 00:16:41.919 --> 00:16:45.440 the team and just I have a question relation to last year, because you'll 197 00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:48.720 know the answer to this. So if I understand what happened last year, 198 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:52.879 what you had was we obviously had power shortages in Europe at the beginning of 199 00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:56.480 sort of this year and at the end of last year. And I've said 200 00:16:56.480 --> 00:17:00.720 a large part of the reasons because the French fleet was out, but we 201 00:17:00.840 --> 00:17:04.039 also saw was the Germans switching on the coal plants. I suppose My question 202 00:17:04.279 --> 00:17:10.480 is did the Germans switch on those call plants because they were supplying power into 203 00:17:10.519 --> 00:17:14.039 France? Was that the reason they did this? Or was it because they 204 00:17:14.160 --> 00:17:17.640 because they were switching off their own nuclear plants? Right? And just curiosity, 205 00:17:17.680 --> 00:17:19.599 but it just love to hear your thoughts. It's a very good question. 206 00:17:19.880 --> 00:17:22.759 First, if you allow me to correct you. Last year, we 207 00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:30.000 had fears of power shortage on the market which didn't materialize for various reasons. 208 00:17:30.720 --> 00:17:36.319 One is the weather, but I'm not really buying into this. I think 209 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:38.599 weather was average it was not super warm. It was not super cold. 210 00:17:40.480 --> 00:17:44.119 The main reason for not having power shortage is the fact that the demand was 211 00:17:44.240 --> 00:17:48.759 completely destructed, you know, we're not using the term demand destruction, and 212 00:17:48.839 --> 00:17:52.559 that saved the power supply demand balance. But also on coming back to your 213 00:17:52.640 --> 00:17:59.039 question, font was able to import a lot of power from its neighbors to 214 00:17:59.240 --> 00:18:04.119 upset for the seeing one hundred. Our nuclear generation was important, power from 215 00:18:04.160 --> 00:18:08.200 Spain, from Italy, but also from Germany and also, if you said, 216 00:18:08.240 --> 00:18:14.440 from the cold stations running in Germany. Generally speaking, Germany is able 217 00:18:14.440 --> 00:18:17.720 to cope with the shut down up its nuclear fleet. I'm not saying there 218 00:18:17.759 --> 00:18:21.200 won't be press on the grade around there, but it shouldn't last very long. 219 00:18:21.599 --> 00:18:26.839 So yes, last year France was imparting massively from Germany, even in 220 00:18:26.880 --> 00:18:30.440 the summer, which is super unusual. It's quite usual to see if fronts 221 00:18:30.440 --> 00:18:33.079 imparting from Germany in the winter, but not in the summer. How do 222 00:18:33.160 --> 00:18:37.039 you look at the upcoming winter, Well depends from which angle you see it. 223 00:18:37.519 --> 00:18:41.240 From a pure supply demand point of view, it's looking a lot better 224 00:18:41.599 --> 00:18:47.200 because the nucleard generation has improved. And you know it was solo last year 225 00:18:47.240 --> 00:18:51.559 that we're talking about twenty five percent better than last year, probably ten gig 226 00:18:51.680 --> 00:18:55.400 what's more, which is huge, but also because the demand is still very 227 00:18:55.400 --> 00:18:57.519 low, which is not such a good news. Saying that, I mean 228 00:18:57.519 --> 00:19:03.119 the demand is low because some companies counterfold the high price of electricity, which 229 00:19:03.160 --> 00:19:07.400 is bad. But the positive is that it's also low because the residential clients 230 00:19:07.400 --> 00:19:12.119 have changed their behavior, and also with seeing some industries investing in energy saving 231 00:19:12.160 --> 00:19:17.880 and energy efficiency, which is quite positive, but rays is questioned. But 232 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:21.960 the future, you know, will demand eventually pick up? And if demand 233 00:19:22.039 --> 00:19:25.839 doesn't pick up, how much nuclear do win it in the future. I 234 00:19:26.400 --> 00:19:30.799 recently, in the light of having more intermedtency on the system and now the 235 00:19:30.920 --> 00:19:37.920 French nuclear said that they can manage intermedtency by modulating the production. Is it 236 00:19:37.000 --> 00:19:42.240 for real or is it arming the plants as I see somewhere. So what's 237 00:19:42.279 --> 00:19:47.599 your take on the flexibility of the nuclear fleet. Yes, it's a very 238 00:19:47.640 --> 00:19:52.880 good question, and you've already partially answered it. The nuclear stations are flexible. 239 00:19:53.240 --> 00:19:56.920 They can up and down pretty much as you want. Obviously, they 240 00:19:56.920 --> 00:20:00.599 can go from zero to full capacity from one hour to the next. But 241 00:20:00.720 --> 00:20:04.359 I would say that generally flexible, and yes, they can cope with the 242 00:20:04.359 --> 00:20:11.319 intermittency or renewable as well as they were dealing with the intermittency or the shape 243 00:20:11.480 --> 00:20:14.759 of the French demand, because you know, let's not forget the French demand 244 00:20:15.079 --> 00:20:18.400 is probably the most volatile in the world because there's a lot of electrical leading 245 00:20:18.440 --> 00:20:23.200 in the country. So yes, they can do it technically. But what's 246 00:20:23.440 --> 00:20:30.279 interesting in the latest development is that it seemed that eventually IDF or experts started 247 00:20:30.839 --> 00:20:36.440 admitting that it was arming potentially arming the units, which is interesting. When 248 00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:41.319 you speak to people working with large devices in other industries, they all say, 249 00:20:41.400 --> 00:20:45.000 yeah, of course, there's no way rumping a nuclear units up and 250 00:20:45.079 --> 00:20:49.160 down several times a week or sometimes several times a dad doesn't have any impact 251 00:20:49.440 --> 00:20:53.319 on the aging of the units. So yes, the French nuclear can deal 252 00:20:53.319 --> 00:20:57.680 with it like any other nuclear station could actually, but this comes at the 253 00:20:57.759 --> 00:21:03.400 cost. That's a bit of a more tricky question. But I'm always wondering, 254 00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:08.440 because IDF is vertically integrated, how much do they report on the generation 255 00:21:08.960 --> 00:21:15.839 division versus the retail division, and how much cost is transferred from one to 256 00:21:15.880 --> 00:21:19.240 another, because if you look at, for instance, another integrated company we 257 00:21:19.319 --> 00:21:26.039 have in Europe, which is NL. This is clear financial distinction between the 258 00:21:26.079 --> 00:21:30.400 retail operation, the transmission operation, that generation operation. Do we have some 259 00:21:30.480 --> 00:21:34.559 cliity on that or is it all a bit fuzzy? I think that interesting 260 00:21:34.599 --> 00:21:40.960 that what we've seen in idfarly financial results last year is that a lot of 261 00:21:40.960 --> 00:21:45.599 what has been lost on the generation side was made back by the trading harm 262 00:21:45.799 --> 00:21:49.200 of IF trading. Wow, So how do you explain that? It's a 263 00:21:49.279 --> 00:21:52.799 natural edge and it's the reason why most of the utilities have a trading ham 264 00:21:53.039 --> 00:21:56.599 because just very simple. When you're a tailor, you have to edge at 265 00:21:56.640 --> 00:22:00.359 any price to have enough power to supply your part folio. So you can't 266 00:22:00.359 --> 00:22:04.079 take any risk, while the treading harm can take some risk. And you've 267 00:22:04.079 --> 00:22:08.599 seen what happened last year when the power for delivery twenty twenty three twenty treaded 268 00:22:08.680 --> 00:22:14.079 up to what five hundred yuos Permegawa tower even ire for a few days and 269 00:22:14.119 --> 00:22:18.880 then we're delivering way under So not buying everything at that price was the right 270 00:22:18.920 --> 00:22:25.200 decision. Very good. Vertical integration is back in the game, Americ. 271 00:22:25.440 --> 00:22:27.680 Maybe just to end this, we talked a little bit about the future and 272 00:22:27.759 --> 00:22:34.000 how you see the role of nuclear in this clean electricity world going forward, 273 00:22:34.000 --> 00:22:41.079 in particular the role of French nuclear in European context. You'rered percent correct. 274 00:22:41.200 --> 00:22:45.319 You have to look at Europe when you think it's the role of French nuclear. 275 00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:48.640 We've seen it in the last two years where friends turn from export of 276 00:22:48.640 --> 00:22:52.680 electisty to an import, which has an impact, not can effect on power 277 00:22:52.720 --> 00:22:57.319 prices across Europe. So the question for the future is in fact more on 278 00:22:57.359 --> 00:23:03.240 the demand that on the supply site, will there be enough demands to justify 279 00:23:03.680 --> 00:23:10.279 as much nuclear than we have today in the fure mix potentially more. That's 280 00:23:10.319 --> 00:23:15.079 a very important question because one could say that at the moment, with demand 281 00:23:15.160 --> 00:23:19.480 levels as they are, we probably don't need as much nuclear doneration than we 282 00:23:19.559 --> 00:23:25.119 have now. Again, because nuclear is great when it runs baseload, because 283 00:23:25.160 --> 00:23:30.880 then it's economically super interesting and obviously it's low carbon technology. But if all 284 00:23:30.880 --> 00:23:36.200 of a sudden you have to rump your units down several times a day, 285 00:23:36.279 --> 00:23:40.200 several times a week, then it starts being a lot more expensive. And 286 00:23:40.559 --> 00:23:45.839 the question hearing the discussion that happens these days between idf CEO and the government, 287 00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:51.319 is nuclear electricity competitive at ninety or PERMGABA tower. I think it's a 288 00:23:51.319 --> 00:23:55.200 big question mark and it probably is a no because I'm not sure it's competitive 289 00:23:55.559 --> 00:24:00.559 against all the waste produce electricity in Europe, but also or maybe it's not 290 00:24:00.640 --> 00:24:06.240 competitive against priso inexist on other continents. Wow. But on the other hand, 291 00:24:06.440 --> 00:24:11.720 what's the price of energy security, what's the price of national pride, 292 00:24:11.359 --> 00:24:18.200 what's the price of keeping those jobs? Yeah, sometimes there are other factors 293 00:24:18.279 --> 00:24:26.039 than the pure market forces in an energy policy and national security. What national 294 00:24:26.119 --> 00:24:32.200 security when you need to import your uranium from what Nizier, Kazakhstan, I'm 295 00:24:32.240 --> 00:24:34.200 not really sure about that. Well, now I'm coming from it. At 296 00:24:34.200 --> 00:24:38.880 the end of the day, France has nuclear weapons. They also have nuclear 297 00:24:38.880 --> 00:24:44.200 submarines and guess what they need to be. You know that knowledge needs to 298 00:24:44.240 --> 00:24:48.000 be kept in France. So there's a crossobs, aalization that takes place as 299 00:24:48.000 --> 00:24:52.160 well, So it's not just commercially buying and selling power, right. Yeah, 300 00:24:52.200 --> 00:24:56.000 But it's an interesting one because I was actually super surprised and I heard 301 00:24:56.000 --> 00:25:00.680 about TDF complaining about the loss of skill with people retiring, because I thought, 302 00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:04.000 you know, it's such a big company, they could probably have anticipated 303 00:25:04.039 --> 00:25:07.599 that a little bit. But also, as you said, we have nuclear 304 00:25:07.680 --> 00:25:11.759 weapons, we have nuclear submarines, we have nuclear flight carriers. So I 305 00:25:11.799 --> 00:25:18.400 was and I'm still surprised by the loss of workforce, educated workforce in the 306 00:25:18.480 --> 00:25:22.920 nuclear field. I find it very surprising that it's happening now. Okay, 307 00:25:22.359 --> 00:25:27.640 Emeric, thanks for this anyway, So those assets are here, They're not 308 00:25:27.720 --> 00:25:33.240 going to disappear overnight, and let's just hope they continue to be used in 309 00:25:33.279 --> 00:25:40.400 a more thoughtful way in relation to the power production and the zero carbon production 310 00:25:40.519 --> 00:25:42.200 in Europe. Yeah, yeah, I don't know what to conclude, your 311 00:25:42.240 --> 00:25:45.480 heart, what do you want to conclude? I think we could say that 312 00:25:45.559 --> 00:25:49.440 it's good because at least we can have these discussions now, which wasn't the 313 00:25:49.480 --> 00:25:52.720 case a few years ago. And we all think Claire is a great tool 314 00:25:52.960 --> 00:25:57.759 to reach the Nezier target. We also strongly believe that it can be very 315 00:25:57.759 --> 00:26:04.480 competitively speaking, let's make sure that happens in the coming years. Absolutely, 316 00:26:04.799 --> 00:26:07.960 Amic, thank you so much for coming on the show. Yes, thank 317 00:26:07.960 --> 00:26:11.279 you very much. It was a pleasure, great discussion. Thank you very 318 00:26:11.359 --> 00:26:17.359 much for coming on the show. Jeah, before you say anything, I 319 00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:22.599 want to point out that Emeric is a sailor and it's from Brittany, which 320 00:26:22.640 --> 00:26:25.960 is the region I come from, and I've been sailing a lot, so 321 00:26:26.440 --> 00:26:30.519 I have a lot of respect for him. Number two, we just add 322 00:26:30.640 --> 00:26:37.680 a fascinating conversation and so different from anything we read from the nuclear lovers or 323 00:26:37.680 --> 00:26:41.680 the nuclear aitors. I agree totally with Youie, I have a question for 324 00:26:41.799 --> 00:26:45.759 la Ron. I was quite I was quite tech. I still can't come 325 00:26:45.799 --> 00:26:51.279 to terms us, which was his explanation of the fact that you know, 326 00:26:51.480 --> 00:26:56.000 EDI Effort come out almost on a quarterly basis with predictions of how much power 327 00:26:56.079 --> 00:27:00.079 they're going to produce every year, and they constantly missed them, which costs 328 00:27:00.079 --> 00:27:04.680 them a lot of money, and that they then on a monthly basis are 329 00:27:04.720 --> 00:27:11.039 coming out with maintenance and planned and unplanned of the nuclear plants. And the 330 00:27:11.079 --> 00:27:15.960 thing that I just scratched my head was how can they get this so wrong? 331 00:27:15.559 --> 00:27:19.480 I suppose what I concluded that from listening to his explanation was there's just 332 00:27:19.839 --> 00:27:23.599 serious cultural issues within that ADF business. I mean, that's the that's the 333 00:27:23.640 --> 00:27:29.039 only thing I can conclude after but it really really did strike me that they're 334 00:27:29.079 --> 00:27:32.359 and but let's be clear. That's why they went bankrupt, that's why they 335 00:27:32.359 --> 00:27:37.799 were nationalized because again they got their maintenance wrong. I mean, so explain 336 00:27:37.839 --> 00:27:45.079 it to me please, I just okay, you pointed the right problem. 337 00:27:45.400 --> 00:27:51.240 It's in one word, flippancy. Flippancy Okay, that's okay, that's a 338 00:27:51.240 --> 00:27:55.880 good word. That's a good word. Okay. In a in a transition 339 00:27:56.039 --> 00:28:03.200 world that's moving decentralized, that's moving digitized, epitomized the old world centralized, 340 00:28:03.759 --> 00:28:11.519 analog, a bloatd bureaucracy. And the thing is they're all bureaucats, so 341 00:28:11.920 --> 00:28:15.319 there's no downside. Nobody's gonna be fired, there's no upside. They never 342 00:28:15.359 --> 00:28:19.400 get a bonus, especially now that they are not under stock exchange anymore. 343 00:28:19.640 --> 00:28:26.160 So they have literally zero motivation to do good or to do bad. They 344 00:28:26.160 --> 00:28:30.519 have zero motivation to innovate. And for thirty years, because they had built 345 00:28:30.519 --> 00:28:37.400 this absolute engineering marvel, there was swimming in cash, cash by the way, 346 00:28:37.400 --> 00:28:41.960 that the government you know, immediately took so they don't care, that's 347 00:28:41.960 --> 00:28:47.000 what I think. Okay, So can I follow one from that? In 348 00:28:47.039 --> 00:28:49.799 assent? Well, then, how do you see the future of that French 349 00:28:49.880 --> 00:28:53.000 nuclear flat? How do you see it now? It's going to tag along. 350 00:28:53.160 --> 00:28:59.160 But let's be clear, even the politics have tried to reform in DF, 351 00:29:00.359 --> 00:29:04.519 they've tried to split it, they tried to put some more market common 352 00:29:04.640 --> 00:29:12.960 sense in their thinking, and IDF has resisted any type of change. There 353 00:29:12.960 --> 00:29:17.079 are a lot of good quality people, so ultimately they're going to fix their 354 00:29:17.279 --> 00:29:22.319 current fleet. But let's face it, they don't have the money to build 355 00:29:22.559 --> 00:29:26.759 new nuclear plans, especially if the price tag of each new unit is twenty 356 00:29:26.799 --> 00:29:30.440 billion. They don't have the money and the government won't let them increase the 357 00:29:30.519 --> 00:29:36.759 prices. So I don't know. Nobody has managed to reform DF. It 358 00:29:36.880 --> 00:29:40.160 is what it is. I'm so taken back by what you're saying. I 359 00:29:40.200 --> 00:29:44.359 really am, And I'm not disagreeing with you anyway, right because again I 360 00:29:44.440 --> 00:29:48.240 just go back to it the brilliance of what IDIF did fifty years ago, 361 00:29:48.440 --> 00:29:52.839 which is to begin that whole process of building this nuclear fleet out. And 362 00:29:52.880 --> 00:29:56.000 as I said, they were the kings of the world, kings and nuclear 363 00:29:56.079 --> 00:30:02.240 kings of the power generation. And then and as you said, the bureaucracts 364 00:30:02.240 --> 00:30:04.440 struck over and the rest is history. It is tough to change, tough 365 00:30:04.440 --> 00:30:08.480 to change, tough to change, we end up this bit or sweet episode. 366 00:30:08.839 --> 00:30:14.480 Even decision makers can find a solution, so we're not going to find 367 00:30:14.519 --> 00:30:18.640 it anywhere. Just to say that it is, in my opinion, has 368 00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:23.279 stupid to be one hundred percent pro nuclear as it is to be one hundred 369 00:30:23.319 --> 00:30:27.240 percent anti nuclear. But what is for sure is that there is no place 370 00:30:27.359 --> 00:30:33.480 for private capital in nuclear. It is a government game and it really depends 371 00:30:33.799 --> 00:30:40.799 how governments are motivated over the long term to invest in nuclear. But I 372 00:30:41.319 --> 00:30:45.119 would say ninety nine percent of our listeners will agree with exactly that statement. 373 00:30:45.599 --> 00:30:49.880 There's no role for private capital than in nuclear. Yeah, that's a jard 374 00:30:51.079 --> 00:30:55.519 In two weeks time, we'll have a bit more joyfull episode with an entrepreneur 375 00:30:55.640 --> 00:30:59.759 and batteries, so we're going to talk about the future, not that, 376 00:31:00.839 --> 00:31:03.960 but we think Jim is very talented. Man. It was crazy. It 377 00:31:03.000 --> 00:31:07.400 was great, absolutely great to have more, really brilliant and we thank our 378 00:31:07.440 --> 00:31:12.680 partner Expo and Joab I took to you. In two weeks time, look 379 00:31:12.720 --> 00:31:18.079 forward to it. Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy. Don't forget to 380 00:31:18.119 --> 00:31:23.559 read the show and subscribe on Apple, podcast, Spotify, or the platform 381 00:31:23.599 --> 00:31:25.519 of your choice.