What is kracoakin Hardwoodknox listeners, I am damn Belly coming at you with out
my fantabulous co host Adam Frommel. As noted in the previous podcast, this
is a two mailbag week due to technical difficulties slash my travel schedule, so
we'll dive right into the second part of this mailbag. Have a ton of
great questions to get through once more. If you missed the first one,
had a lot of fun with that, be sure to check that out.
It went live on Wednesday. This one is going live on a Friday.
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let's just dive right into this mailbag. So this first question comes from og
Kwan Kenobi as what does og and a Noby gotta do to make an All
defensive team? In twenty twenty the Raptors had a top three defense, but
apparently we had too many good defenders to be considered. In twenty twenty one,
he missed too many games to be considered for the award, even though
he played more minutes than tible. So I had Oganna Nobi on my mock
All Defense team. And when you're you know, when you want to look
at minutes played. I think that's fine for some awards, especially when you're
trying to split hairs with MVP. I don't worry about the differential as much
when you're looking at all defense, maybe all Rookie, even All MBA a
little bit at the same time, Ogian and Obi might be the best on
ball defender in the NBA right now, and the Raptors had him everywhere.
There were just lineups where he would defend fives even though Pascal Siakam was on
the court. And he's so important to what the Raptors do. He's not
going to have the typical counting stats as a lot of other guys, and
I feel like there's not as much necessarily flashed his defense as the Resimatis Thible,
where there's like a lot of just more motion there. O Ganaobi is
so strong and he's he's long, and he's super smart. Not that Bible
isn't, so I think that goes into it. I think what og want
Canopy brought up a great point of is when you're on a team it has
so many good defenders, though it dilutes conceptually your impact. And it's maybe
why a duell em Beat and Ben Simmons when you're looking at them in the
defensive Player of the Year race. Yes they'll be mentioned, but can you
imagine either one of those two players winning it while the other one is on
the team. I'm not saying they won't, It just feels like it's a
little bit more difficult, sort of like the two MVP is on your team,
where it's like Kevin Durant or James Harden, How are you going to
distinguish discern between them and put Kyrie's on that team as well moving forward.
That's not a perfect answer, of course, because defense is a lot different
and you're just looking at the scope of Ogianna Noby's assignments. O Giannaoby is
going to make it, you know, an all defensive team. It's just
it's going to happen. And I would argue that he will have some first
team All Defense selections under his belt before his career is even close to to
over. So and og O g One Kenobi also mentioned that he never understood
how Toronto having too many good defenders ball defense position is seen as a slight
against og in twenty twenty two and twenty one and Beat Simmons and Fible can
all make it. That's that's also a great point that I wanted to touch
on as well. So there's you know, I think they're, like I
said, Tible's game there feels like there's a little bit more flash to the
defense. I also think people. Voters are going to look at teams that
were really good, and the Raptors kind of they didn't. Kind of they
definitely underachieved last year. They had the COVID issues, they have the injury
issues, and then you know, for a third of the season, they
just flat out weren't trying to win. And I think that goes into it
as well, that voters like to single out guys that are going to be
on good teams. That is certainly just not always the case, but I
do think that's part of it. To me, though he deserved to make
it, but you also get to a point where you are splitting hairs.
I wouldn't use the minute discrepancy. I think it was five hundred and change
last time I checked them. Meant to pull that up among all the windows
that I have opened right now. It's not so Yeah, he's an all
defense guy. To me, I wouldn't even take it as a slight.
It's just there's only two teams for that, and it's so hard to quantify
and even qualitatively measure defense, just as observers as media members because most of
us and throwing myself in there, who does not have a vote to be
clear. So we just don't have a lot like the defen of knowledge as
coaches or even as certain other media analysts have order because they definitely need to
sort of thin out the voting pool here, and maybe that makes a bigger
difference. But yeah, I'm not too I just don't read too much into
it. It's sort of a nice award to get, but to me,
it doesn't take away anything from what og and Anobi does. And he's going
to be just a sleeper Most Improved Player pick this year because I think he
gets more ball control on offense given the structure of the Raptors right now,
and if he's going to shine on defense as much as he just typically does.
And this is just someone who could shut down people one on one,
not everybody, but this is a five position defender. When you look at
him and he had he can play Mack. I'm not trying to take that
away from him by saying that tables just flash here. There's just like more
I don't know, there's more body mechanics, like flamboyant body mechanics involved,
and maybe that means people feel his defense more, or perhaps it's just talked
about more. When you're talking when you're looking at the NBA in general,
they are just more teams in the United States, and the Raptors just don't
seem to generate as much national cover. And I don't want to ascribe blame
to that, but I think the season the Raptors had versus the season the
Sixers had, that was probably the bigger difference, more so than some you
know, perceived slight against the Raptors. I don't think there's an agenda there,
but it's still a great question. I think he deserves to make it.
Kurig is bad as high. Hello, what is the max offensive rating
ever achieved by a team in the postseason? The reason I asked because I'm
curious to think about ceilings and OFFENSI efficiency for the nets, so I'm one
of the records thing. I like to use adjusted offensive ratings rather than raw
offensive ratings. We can say that, you know, the Mavericks had the
best offense in history one year, but what is it relative to the leg
average? This was harder to look up for the playoffs, so I am
just using raw offensive rating there. But I just want people to know it's
imperfect. I do find the results, they're not surprising. In the sense
that the top four teams all come in the past two seasons. But it's
funny that the Jazz the numbers one and two spots. The twenty nineteen twenty
Jazz had a one twenty three point three offensive rating through seven games in the
playoffs, and then in the twenty twenty two twenty one Jazz through eleven games
had a one twenty two point six offensive rating, which is the second highest
on record per stat Head. The twenty twenty twenty twenty one Pointland Trailblazers check
in at three with one twenty two point one. The twenty twenty twenty twenty
one Clippers check in at four through nineteen games, which is super impressive at
one twenty one point five. And then this shouldn't be surprising at all,
but the twenty sixteen, two thousand and seventeen Cleveland Cavaliers, that team was
just so fantastic on offense, and obviously you lose sight of what they did
a little bit, and maybe you shouldn't because the Warriors existed with Kevin Durant,
but they had a one twenty point seven offensive rating, which is the
fifth highest on record. If you set a benchmark of having to play at
least ten games in the playoffs, the number one mark would be this season's
Jazz at one twenty two point six. Then you would have the twenty twenty
two twenty one Clippers at one twenty one point five, those that Cass team
in two thousand and sixteen, two thousand and seventeen one twenty point seven.
Then you get two two teams that are less recent in the eighty six eighty
seven Lakers one twenty point three and then the nineteen eighty three nineteen eighty four
Utah Jazz one nineteen point five. Really hysterical that the Jazz just appear on
this list in the top ten of the raw offensive rating so often. If
anyone's wondering where the Kevin Durant Row Warriors fall, the twenty sixteen, two
thousand and seventeen Warriors, that team which was just lost one game the entire
playoff from one nineteen point four offensive rating through their seventeen playoff games, and
Brooklyn. If you go through this this season's Brooklyn team, they finished twenty
first, one seventeen point one. Do they have the potential to beat it?
I would say I want to say yes, but when you also are
going to rely probably on a lot more one on one basketball. Even though
you look at how the three stars have played together in Coal Lace, there
was blab movement, they did play off one another. I'm just wondering if
that's a little bit harder to do, which is why even the twenty sixteen
twenty seventeen Warriors, Yeah they're eighth, but they're not like and I'm not
saying they were a ball stopping team. They weren't necessarily, but when you
have so many centric figure, central figures in your offense, does almost make
it more difficult to achieve these these offensive ratings where you look at the Jazz
success by committee or in Portland where it's really just Dame centric and then everybody
else. That might be a float argument just because this year's Clipper, although
look, this year's Clippers showing up like Kaim missing so much time, so
it was Paul George and then the committee around him. Just something to sort
of think about there. Next question we will move on to is too tall
Tony as what should the Rockets starting five look like? According to analytics?
This is so according to analytics, you really can't do it too much because
there's just been so much turnover on this team. So I kind of fucked
around with a bunch of different four man combinations to see how I could you
know of incumbent players and see how you could round out there. So what
I came up with here is John Wall, Daniel House, Christian Wood,
and Jay Shawn Tate. They had a net rating of plus thirteen point six
last year and about one hundred and seventy non garbage time possessions per cleaning the
glass that is one no time at all. But again, if you wanted
to use incumbent rocket players, the samples are just inherently small given the turnover.
Also, injuries to guys like John Wall, Christian would miss time,
Daniel House missed a bunch of time, So you would start with those four
if you want to do this analytically, And I think you just round this
out with you know, maybe Eric Gordon might actually be the best player left,
but it has to be jail and green and not just given what you
saw for him to sing League. But like that, you have so much
just future equity invested in that dude. Their actual starting lineup this season.
I'm not going to claim to have a feel for it. I think it
ends up being something like John Wall, Kevin Porter Junior, jail And Green,
j Jay, Shawn Tate, and Christian Wood. So it actually is
probably kind of close to that. I don't know if they would consider,
like do we want Chashn Tate coming off the bench and maybe we'll start Alperren
Shangun. I don't think you would want two rookies in the starting lineup,
and I'm just gonna assume that Jalen Green will be in the starting lineup.
Maybe bring Kevin Porter off the bench. It's sort of that microwave sixth man
and then you start Eric Gordon. But you might even just view Eric Gordon
as that microwave six man if there was a sixth player that was going to
crack this group. So I have Wall, Porter, Junior, Jalen Green,
Tate, and would is my projected starting five, which is again very
close to what it would be if you were going, you know, by
analytics last year, you would simply just be taking out Kevin Porter Junior and
putting in Daniel House there. I think it would probably be Daniel House that
would be the most likely to actually crack the starting lineup if we think that
Kevin Porter Junior isn't gonna be there. I just I can't see them starting
a second rookie though maybe they should, like just Usman Garuba, Alperren,
Shanegun, those guys probably need to see some minutes at the same position with
the four. Or you also have Jashon Tate who should probably play some four.
So maybe they're just worried about lock jam there. But you also have
some minutes where you could slop people up at the five because you have Wood
and Daniel Tyson just not many other bodies there. But if you're looking to
you know you're worried. Let's say you're just worried a little bit about Jayshon
Tate, Shangoon and and Usmont Gruba backing factor in the also Josh Christopher floating
around here. It's some high mon in the summer League. But they cap
that off. The analytics say, just based off the way that I use,
I was trying to look for and by the way, like the one
sixty nine possession of Sam size I was using for those four of John Wall,
Daniel House, Christian Wood and Jason Tate, it was just among the
highest of their four man combinations. So I have those four and then you
would just throw Jail and Green in there. If you were really catering to
analytics, maybe you go with Eric Gordon, just a more proven player.
I would expect this to be a John Wall, Jail and Green, Jayshawn
take Christian Wood, then Kevin Porter junior situation. I don't feel comfortable about
that last spot. It could go to Daniel House, Eric Gordon. You
might even be able to make for David Nuaba in there, but I think
you need more shooting, with more proven shooting within that that lineup certainly,
which is why Kevin Porter Junior, Chilling Green might maybe play together. And
that's a lot of just creation wrapped into one starting five. Let's move on
to another. That's a fascinating question, by the way. Let's mode this
next question. Lee m asked, how does the Bucks offseason pickups look after
not resigning PJ Tucker. I'm not sure if I'm being trolled here because I
eviscerated the Bucks for not bringing back PJ. Tucker and what was clearly still
a penny pinching move, And if you are trolling me, that's totally fine.
I'm not offended. They did make their off season ended up being better
than I expected given what happened there. You did keep Bobby Portis, which
was important. You did bring back George Hill, and the last time George
Hill was good was in Milwaukee. The Grace and all trade was kind of
sneaky. Someone who can shoot the three ball, give you a little bit
extra ball handling, and then you're just inoculated against Okay, when's Dante de
Vincenzo coming back. They're not similar players, especially on defense. Deevencenzo is
going to give you a lot more there, but Grayson Now is more of
a even guy with the ball on his hands and shooter than a Pat Connaton
if you're looking for that type of look. And then Devenchenzo is gonna be
restricted free agent next year, So if he's too will Grayson Now and I
believe actually so, Donne Devincenzo is too expensive, kind of head your bets
with a Gray Grayson Allen there. So I like that, shemmy old July
kind of whatever, Like, is that your PJ. Tucker replacement? Because
you might be able to play him next to those or within those Giannis at
the five lineups, or were Jannis really isn't the five, but he's your
biggest player on the court. However you want to frame that. I like
the rodney Hood flyer. So someone who gives you a little bit more creation
juice and can hit spot up threes always is kind of underachieved defensively. He's
not super long for his size, but this is someone who stands six eight.
Maybe he'll be better in Milwaukee system when you're playing next to Drew Holiday,
Chris Middleton, and Jannis, especially all at once, if you have
him on a court there. I don't know if that's maybe too small for
the Bucks, but if they wanted to play rodney Hood is you're with Middleton
and like sort of interchangeable to three four with Drew Holiday Donte Devincenzo, I'd
be there for that. So I think the Bucks off season overall it looks
it looks fine. But you have the ability to keep PJ. Tucker,
and I don't know why you wouldn't have. Maybe you just assume that his
offensive decline was going to continue. A great deal. He shot under thirty
two percent on corner threes in the playoffs. There were moments where it felt
like he wasn't providing enough defensive value even I'm excusing me defensive value to offset
the offensive value that he was taking away from you at the same time,
like that dude can really defend it. It's basically all five positions we saw
him, like, he'll give you a real effort against Kevin Durant. I'm
gonna shut him down. But the fact that he could still do that,
I think you miss him. And if you're going to flesh outline us where
Yanniston the coupo is your biggest player, I think you would rather have PJ.
Tucker than a Shemy Ojila or a Rodney Hood involved there. And maybe
you're able to get by, or maybe you just become more dependent on Jana's
playing next to Portis or Lopez. I think that gives you real problems in
certain matchups where if you're going against Brooklyn and they decide to downsize. Let's
say you're going against Miami and bam Adebayo is there five and you know they
have PJ. Tucker on the court with him. Also, if you want
to mismatch against Philly and make life more difficult on Joel Embiid, I think
PJ. Tucker could have came in handy. They're just having the honest,
your de facto five there. That puts a lot of pressure on Joel Embid.
Maybe it doesn't matter if Ben Simmons is still there. I don't think
it's crippling to lose Page Tucker, but they should have just kept them.
And look, they're they're in the tax as of right now, so I'm
not there. They're obviously still willing to pay to keep this team together.
But let's one see how that sort of shakes out by the end of the
season. But also, I just I'm not saying PJ. Tucker is gonna
be the difference between between a repeat bid and then getting bounced in the first
or second round. But you had the ability to keep him. It seems
like he wanted to stay based off that Instagram post. How much money was
did the Miami he give him that you weren't prepared to do that, or
maybe you didn't want to put the second year on his contract. I really
I have no idea. I still would have kept him, but too tall
Tony, excuse me, but Lee, I think the Bucks offseason, you
know, if you're grading in and we are going to give out report card.
I need to dig a little bit deeper into this. I think you
could give them a B or a C plus in the sense that did they
exceed expectations? No, did they miss them or actively damage their chances at
repeating? I would say no. So I just don't I don't feew it
is a great off season, but I think that they made some really nice
moves on the margins. They just it would have been a home run if
this is the off season you have, and and PJ. Tucker, is
there another question let's go to I'm not going to answer that question, but
it doesn't make me laugh. So we have some Frankie o'keena questions, so
I'm just gonna answer them quickly. Alex Emery asked, who would you rather
take a chance on, frank or Dante Xim. I think it's Frankie o'keena
for me. He's proven he could stay healthier in the sense that he's getting
more DMPs, where Dante Exim is just sort of been banged up it feels
like his entire career and Frankie o keena is shown a little bit more of
the last season and a half to three point shooter. I think Frankniel Keena's
best roles is a three and D wing just never been deployed that way consistently.
Maybe people like the fact that exam might give you a little bit more
ball handling, and they've seen him go up against James Harden and you know,
hang tight in that battle. But Frankie Lukina has done similar things.
I would rather take a flyer on him, but I'm probably the wrong person
to ask there. The other frank question we have was from Maya Rothbamb was
Neil Keen is limited playing time the Olympics proof that he's not going to be
a long time NBA player. I say no, But again, maybe the
wrong question here. I just he needs to be signed. Maybe he'll be
signed by the time you listen to this. I don't know. I'm just
I'm actually shocked. A lot of other players are signed, you know,
Paul mill staple up. The whole letter of marketing stuff going on right now
just absolutely bizarre. Let's stick with the Knicks here. Noah Odadge asked why
does the NBA media hate RJ. Barrett. I'm assuming he's mostly kidding here,
or it's a response to the athletics, tear rankings seth part now who
I do really like. I believe what was going around was here to defend
having Alex Caruso ahead of RJ. Barrett. I don't want to get into
the day what like the logic behind that. I don't know that the NBA
Meda hates r J Barrett, but I got to ask this question on Twitter
too, and when I was I wrote a piece about my most underrated player
on every NBA team, and some people want to know wide en pick RJ
Barrett for the Knicks. I think I guess based off the people I've talked
to that are outside the Knicks stratosphere. I feel like he's properly rated where
it's like, oh, okay, he shot over forty percent from three and
he and he defended really well last year. It's and you know, he's
showed some flashes as a pastor two to me as well. But is the
dribble jumper is just going to be the swing skill for him? That's what
kind of is the barrier between him and you know, a stardom course,
and maybe people just haven't seen enough to believe that's that's going to happen to
his credit. You know, if you look at the sophomores and I sorted
this by just their second season or their first season. NBA players to qualify
for the minutes per game leaderboard and then average at least seventeen points while shooting
better averagely seventeen points and three assists while shooting better than from three. It's
only happened seven times on record. RJ Barrett is one of them. Stephen
Curry has two of these seasons as a rookie and a sophomore. Bradley Beal
is on this list, Vince Carter is on this list, Hercy Hawk Hawkins
is on this list, and so was Larry Bird. That's pretty good company.
And both RJ and Beale were the two youngest players to do it.
They both did it before their age twenty one seasons. So I don't know,
I don't think he's going to turn into any of these players. I
mean, you probably hope he has a better trajectory than Hawkins, who made
one All Star appearance for his career. But like that's encouraging, and I'm
just curious to see what type of role he's going to have this season on
a NIX team that really revamped their offensive pecking order where now it's not Julius
Randall all everything. You have Evan Fournier who can do stuff with the ball.
You have Kema Walker, you brought back Dark Rose, you brought back
Alec Burks, another guy who can create his own shot. And so does
that sort of pigeonhole r J. Barrett into the three and D type of
function, just because I don't know in what lineups he's going to be able
to branch out offensively, perhaps bench heavy units where it's him just plus the
bench, or at least you have him and then Kemba and Randall are on
the point. But even then you're still dealing with Okay Rose quickly he might
be in there. He's gonna need some touches too, and Alec Burks,
like I said, I'm just curious to see whether he's going to have the
opportunity to broaden his offensive skill set. He needs to work on that pull
up jumper, and we've seen like he can put the ball on the deck
and really get physical and go to the rim. But to be a super
elite player in this league, there needs to be that layer of perimeter self
creation that we have yet to see from him. Part of that is the
nixteven necessarily needed him to do that, and they need him do it even
less next season. The thing that's really interesting with RJ. Barrett is they've
kind of decided decided, and I get look, I've kind of made a
stink about them not bringing back Reggie Bullock because he was their most important perimeter
defender. It does feel like the Knicks have made a conscious decision of we
want shock creators. It's you know, maybe Kema Walker fell into the lap,
but even before then bringing back Derek Rose and then bringing back Alc Burks
and getting Evan Fournier, where I think he could have viewed it as Okay,
well, if you were going to be in the mix for Evan Fournie,
why bring back Reggie Why not Why bringing back Alc Burks instead of Reggie
Bullock. But now, okay, so you look at this and I guess
RJ. Barrett is going to get like some of the toughest, the toughest
assignments this season outside of point guard. I don't think they'll stash him on
those types, but like Evan Fournier, like maybe he'll be announced as the
starting three but like he's not defending if the you know RJ. Barrett between
the two and the three in the starting line, if he's gonna be defending
the tougher covers there, and unless you believe that like a Miles McBride or
a Quentin Gronge is wooked are going to step in and be the knicks best
defender perimeter defender anyway, Like RJ. Barrett is the single most important perimeter
defender on the New York Knicks right now. That's kind of wild to say,
just based off what we saw from as a rookie. And yeah,
there was improvement, especially away from the ball as a sophomore. But that's
putting a lot of faith in him, and I'm interested to see how it
turns out. Of course, you can argue that both No One's will mtch
Robinson are better defensively than him. They're on the back line, though,
like RJ. Barrett is going to be just the primary wing defender. It
feels like it. So I'm very interested to sort of watch that process unfold.
I don't have a feel for how it's going to turn out. Let's
wrap up with another Knicks question. This one comes from Fred do the Knicks
have a solid shot at the Eastern Conferences best of the rest, Milwaukee,
Philly and then Brooklyn Nets securing the top three spots in all likelihood. So
he's asking about the fourth playoff seed. They what is solid? I just
you know, when you're looking at the East pecking order, I think they're
in that mix. It's the Knicks, the Hawks, the Heat, the
Celtics, and the Pacers. To me, right now, I'll be inclined
to throw the Raptors in there. I don't know what to feel about the
Bulls. That's seven teams that I think could justifiably be in there, and
that's assuming that Washington or Charlotte doesn't sneak their way in there. There's going
to be razor thin margins outside the top three in the East, and maybe
it's even outside the top two. Just we don't know if Philly is gonna
look like cal Ben Simmons is gonna play if if he is still still there,
I think if I had to pick, I think Miami or Atlanta,
both of them to me have a leg up on the Knicks. After that,
I might be inclined to go with a fully healthy Pacers squad. Maybe
even the Boston Celtics. At this point, my spicy take could be that
if the Raptors stay together, that they'll have a better regular season record than
the Knicks, But I honestly don't know. That's just not an insult.
If you told me you could tell me the Knicks finished fourth in the East
next year, I believe you. You can tell me that the Knicks finished
tenth, and I'd also believe you because that's how thin the gap is going
to be through all those teams there, and I think it's important to a
memorable Looking at the Knicks, Yeah, you do have to view through the
prison of Okay, they did spend some long term money here. Don't buying
the fact that they're better set up to pull off a trade. They've just
decided that they're going to get a star via trade rather than free agency,
which is a fine decision because they're choosing to remain competitive while they perhaps wait
for that deal and materialize. But just because they have these guys on multi
year deals two years guaranteed and even Fournier's cases three years guaranteed, like they're
not better set up to trade for a star like cap space and flexibility is
just as valuable in those scenarios. But they did invest money in being good.
It was just most of it was low risk. I would say the
Evan Fournier deal is the one that just felt like I want to touch too
far. If you're even gonna give them three guarantee years, that price point
have to be as high. From the team's perspective, lost my train of
thought from run. I was arguing, but, oh, growth isn't linear,
and so the Knicks won fifty seven percent of their games last season,
and so that's a that's a seventy two game season. I don't think you
need to look at this and say, Okay, well, if they don't
win forty seven games next year over the course with eighty two game season or
more, it's a failure. They've regressed just because the East is going to
be deeper and better depending on how healthy it is, so anything can happen
there, and that's going to be something render If they could technically win forty
games and maybe have just shown a bunch of improvement, maybe RJ. Barrett
hits it looks like they found stuff and flint grimes and duced mcgride. Emanuel
quickly makes a jump as a facilitator, and just as importantly, maybe Julius
Randall has a great follow up campaign to what he did last season, because
that's a guy who you know. And this could be the answer to another
question, which is funny from James Ciaputo, what's the biggest improvement in a
player you've seen in the NBA can be a certain skill or overall jump.
Julius Randalls just going from No. Not out of nowhere, but just second
team All NBA. That's a huge leap. And so if he is even
close to as good as he was last season but you win fewer games,
that's still huge because it means that that contract that he signed four years up
to one hundred seventeen million, it could end up just being closer like four
and one hundred one hundred and five as the base That could really mean like
that means big things because then you have him on a below market deal.
So yeah, it's important. At the Knicks, I think to go beyond
the record and look at the performance of their individual players. But I would
not pick them as I would have both the Heat and the Hawks right now
in front of the Knicks, and a lot of things could change that health
actors being among them, and the Knicks might fall victims to that, like
Kemba's needs, Derick Ross always hurt. They got really lucky with RJ.
Barrett and Julius rynolds durability last season. So there's a lot that goes into
that. To further answer James's question about a player or maybe a skill that
I've really seen from the jump, you know, I immediately looked towards Pascal
Siaka when he most improved player in twenty eighteen nineteen. A lot of people
thought he had a down year last season. I think he was still pretty
good even though the jump shot left him just that all around skill set when
you just look at how much of a niche role he was playing upon entering
the NBA. Maybe it was more of a it was it was kind of
a gradual progression functionally, the makeup of the team change, going from Kyle
Lowry to Martin Rosen, having Kawai there or not having Kawai there. But
it was just like these mega leaps from him, and to see that happen
multiple times, and then to have a season where he shoots so well from
three, even though that was you know, two seasons. Really we're shooting
fairly well from three when this was a guy that coming in you didn't think
could shoot. That's like, that's absolutely wild. Than I don't want to
stay on the Knicks with this one, but having Julius Randall like make the
jump to second team on bat the age of t like his age twenty sixth
season, that's we just don't see that type of leap from a guy who
was like barely in his best season. When you look at the year he
had a New Orleans was like maybe a fringe All Star. So that's really
just those two stand out to me. More recently, laughing at this one
from Miroslav Shook, longtime listener, who's a better defender Michael Porter Junior or
Damian Lillard? That is obviously funny, but it's Michael Porter Junior, And
I actually think he improved on defense by the way, just like what the
plays he can make as a helper, this is someone who can actually do
some damage. So I don't think he's gonna be a great defender. But
just something to keep in mind at Bird Untrust as do you buy the Lonzo
ball brand theory? Is Lonzo going to have a career high shooting season with
the lead changing from Spalding to Wilson. I don't buy into this theory.
I think it's an actual funny question. Lonzo kind of fixed this jump or
even if the form still looks monkey when you look at the mechanics of it,
the speed of it, Lonzo Ball is a good jump shooter. Now
we just we have off the catch. He's not hitting these off the drivel
triples. That would be ideally the next phase of his development. But that's
sort of what you're you're waiting on from him. But I think he's just
reworked his jump shot more than more than anything else. So I don't buy
into that theory. Pained Sigh asked, who is the most average player at
every position? So I decided to do this by looking at VORP and seeing
guys who qualified it for the Minute's pre leider aboard and basically had an average
VORP. And then I built it by backcourt forwards and biggs to look at
it. So you have your in the backcourt, you have Kelvin Johnson and
Shake Milton your wings or Josh Richardson and Will Barton, and then your center
would be Dwight Howard. That was looking at just last season, I didn't
want to have to put a thought into like who would be the most average
player in the NBA. Jamichael Green came awfully close to making this list.
By the way, it's because both Barton and Richardson qualified as threes, so
Green could have almost made that front court as well. I would argue Jamchael
Green is decidedly above average. So last season, by bye vorp, those
were your most most average players. Have a few more questions here, Let's
let's see if we can tear through them. We actually have a bunch of
more questions here, but it's the only time I'm gonna get through. Oh,
this one's great from Annion Sports. Which team would you pick to overtree
achieve and which one would you pick to underachieve in the upcoming season? Probably
based off everything that's happened over the off season. I think a lot of
people are gonna gravitate to the Pelicons in some form here. I don't know
if you can necessarily pick them to underachieve, because I don't think you look
at their offseason and think that, oh, this is a team that thought
it got better. So yeah, my overachiever would be Toronto. A lot
of people are talking about, oh world they trade Siakam Could Van Flee find
his way onto the trade block? What are they gonna do for shot creation
outside of Fred van Fleet? Even Pascal Siakam cano g handle that role as
Scotty barn is going to get a chance should they have paid Gary Trench Jrs.
The big Man rotation is still a little wonky because you have Chris Mache
and Ken Birch and Precious to Chiuwa, Like what what does all that look
like? How a line you're gonna be on? Utah Wanton Abby? This
this is a team I would expect if the makeup stays the same, that
is going to have easily a top seven defense, and then there's there's more
offense to plumb there than people are giving them credit for. As long as
they have Gore in Dragus that's sort of the wild card there. But this
is a team that no, I wouldn't pick them to come out of the
East. But as a regular season team, if you told me the Raptors
finished fourth or fifth, that wouldn't shock me. If they're healthy, they're
a team that's gonna win a lot of regular season games when you're looking at
underachievers, I think it's the Chicago Bulls. You could also maybe think about
the Lakers here just how combustible is the Russell Westbrook situation. But I can't
bet against Lebron James ever. I like Chicago's all season right up until the
Demartar rozen move. And I think Demardar Rosen is still a really good basketball
player, and that people conflate a player's value too much with his pay grade.
The fit there is just weird, and I'm what is their defense going
to look? Like? They should have a really good offense, But then
again, is there going to be too much, you know, usage cannibalization
between Zach Lavin, Nicola Vukovic, and Demarta Rosen. I would probably argue,
know, just because of the way Lavine and Vouge can play off the
ball, but Kobe White sort of involved in that mix. What does the
best defensive lineup look like? I'm assuming it's with Carusoe and Patrick Williams.
How do you flesh the rest of that out? Are those two closing and
then you just go with Lavine, Demartar Rosen and Vouch? I don't know
that I love that lineup. There's not a ton of shooting there. When
you really think about it, Vouge and Lavine will be the best shooters.
De Rosen doesn't shoot threes. Crusoe is so so. Patrick Williams hit a
decent clip of his threes last year as a rookie, but he's gonna have
to really nudge that up. So yeah, Chicago just seems very very combustible.
And if there was another team out a pick as just an underachiever,
I'll go to the Western Conference here just for the sake of not focusing only
on the East. Probably Portland just I think people look at them even without
making changes. It is just sort of penciling them in as a playoff team.
I don't know that you can do that. If we're looking at which
of the top six teams are going to fall out, I'm not picking the
Jazz, the Soun's ven, the Nuggets without Jamal Murray. I'm Dallas,
I guess because they still have limited shock creation around Luca. Maybe that's interesting.
The Clippers without Kawai, maybe that's interesting. But it could be Portland.
It just could like what did they do how much? What did they
do to improve the defense, like Cody Zeller isn't helping that. Ben McLamore
isn't helping that. So it's if use Off Nurkics is healthy and they keep
CJ. McCollum and Damian and Damian Lillard stays throughout the season, which my
guests would be that he would. I'd be shocked if he requests a trade
midstream and then Norman Powell has just an encoret or what he did last year.
Yeah, they should be a solid playoff team. But like the Lakers
are going to be in the top six next year, I would be shocked
if that didn't happen. So one of the teams is getting bumped, and
I think you could I might pencil in the Warriors is a top six team
in which in which cases two teams getting bumped. So Portland is a team
where they've invested a lot or they're banking a lot on their current court,
thinking that they're good enough to at least be that, and there's a chance
to me that they just aren't. So yeah, if you're looking for a
West achiever, that's a tough one. I don't know if I can really
think of one in that conference. I don't have one. I honestly don't
like maybe just the Grizzlies because they've so pivoted out of winning now and yet
maybe they'll stumble into a play in birth. Anyway, I don't think it's
really gonna be the Timberwolves, even if they're super healthy. Oklahoma City is
going to do their damnest not to win twenty games next year. Maybe Houston,
just like if they keep this chord together and some of the rookies are
good right away, I mean just between Josh Christopher Usman, Gruba Alpren,
Shane Gunen, of course Jalen Green like golen'a say, Jayen Green is Rookie
of a Year, can late like one of the top two Rookie the Year
candidates, which is obviously not that far fresh of an idea. He was
taking number two overall. But let's say he's in that combo decidedly. John
Wall stays healthy all year, Christian Wood as the follow up to what he
was doing last season. Jay Shawn Tate looks as good as he did last
year. Daniel House is healthier and playing did over Eric Gordon. My guests
would still be that the Rockets would trade out of anything that plays them towards
the middle, because they're one of like four or five teams right now that
don't seem like they're actively trying to win. But if you get Jail and
Green and let's say like Garuba or alperushangun to be really good right off the
bat, you have something there. If you're signing Daniel Plis just a rock
solid player, backup point guard, could definitely get a little if he.
Are you trusting dj Augustine? I mean you could maybe even go with Josh
Christopher there for a little bit. Do you trust Jail and Green to do
it? Probably more of a wing in that situation. But I'm gonna go
with the Rockets. They would be the biggest overachiever to me in the Western
Conference. I'm not going to predict it, but that's if there's a team
that just shocks us in the West, there's just so much better than we
expect it. I don't it's not going to be at the top. It's
going to be from the Houston Rockets. You heard it here first, please
and so please remember it. Let's make this the last question from Let's not
go to Camelot. The Warriors have a couple of spots open towards the back
of their roster in an open two way, who do you think they should
drop and pick up in what remains of free agency. I don't want to
get him to necessarily who they should drop. I don't really get a feel
for like what they want to do with the final spots of their roster.
It doesn't seem like unless it was going to be for Patty Mills that they
want to trade to pay out the mini level exception, and right now there's
not really players who are are worth that. My guests would be if they're
going to cut someone, Gary Payton. The second would be the guy that
goes. It does seem Mikes are gonna give him a chance there. Maybe
it's it's Michael Molder. I honestly don't know. Look at the free agents
they coun still pick up. I think Paul Millsapp is a great fit there,
just as a big who can if you want him to be your five
essentially just be like the Draymond Greene Paul Millistapper on court I think could be
really good defensively despite its lack of size. Maybe even Paul Millsapp and wants
Knoll Anderson in certain matchups. I don't think he could be low key important
to maximizing James Wiseman. He just needs someone at the four who can dot
the arc, and Millsapp has shot fairly well catch and shoot threes over the
past few years. Having him on the outside would then allow you to let
James wisen work as the roller. It's harder to do that with Raymond Green
on a court, even if Green is the ball handler, because he's not
a threat from the outside. So Paul Millsap would be super ideal for them.
I don't hate the idea. It does seem like they might be set
on wing depth. But how much do you trust Moses Moody, Jonathan cominga
right off the bat, and Otto Porter has been more down than up over
the past couple of seasons. James Ennis could be a nice fit there,
a stab in the dark type of player just to look at this team still
needs someone who could put the ball on the floor, generate his own shot,
and just light it up from outside. Is JJ Reddick healthy? Not
like the quintessential guy to knock down to work in isolation, but like he
can hit pull up threes and he's rated in the ninety fifth percentile or better
of scoring a finish sheet scoring efficiency as the ball handler in the pick and
roll each of the past four seasons, so it's got a huge part of
his game initiating pick and rolls. But to being the ninety five percent title
or better in four straight seasons as he's getting older, that would be a
welcome addition if he's healthy. To me, especially until Clay Thompson comes back,
you still want that lights out sniper through Christmas. If he still prefers
to land someone in the northeast of Brooklyn or New York or a Boston,
that does kind of throw a wrench in your plans. But New York doesn't
need another guard of his ILK, I would argue Brooklyn doesn't either after getting
Patty Mills. Boston's like kind of iffy. Maybe they could use someone like
him. But if they want to play Aaron A. Smith and Peyton Pritchard
after what they did in Summer League, not so much. Philly would be
the destination for Reddick, But Golden State to me, would would be just
super interesting that they could try their hand at, just because when you do
look at this, who are you banking on to be your backup point guard
right now, maybe Jordan Poole. I don't think Reddick has to throw a
wrench in those plans. But if you wanted to be the team that takes
a flyer on Frank Neelk just kidding, Isaiah Thomas, you could certainly do
that. This mailbag was great. I hope you enjoined it again. We
will get back to non solo pods next week. We have a lot of
content coming up for your guys, so I hope you enjoyed at least these
solo mail bags. I'm so happy that we still get these responses to questions
you can. Oh wait, excuse me, I'm not done. I have
a question in my DMS that I promised I would get to. So that's
a preemptive ending. That's a premature ending to this podcast. But Stephen asked,
you started talking about the Grizzlies on the last episode. Do you think
they could be a sleeper team in the Ben Simmons sweepstakes. They're a small
market team with a ton of valuable metier contracts, Doing Brooks, Kyle Anderson,
the Anthony Mountain, young players that could interest Philly either for now or
to be tacking sure star Zaire Williams, Desmond Bain, Brandon Clark, and
picks. They control their entire draft, along with the Lakers, Utah and
going state first round picks. Do I he goes into some packages, so
two things here. He doesn't have, Steven doesn't have Jared Jackson. J
You're going to Philly in this deal, whether it's a three team trade or
it's just a straight up trade of Philly. I don't think they're pulling this.
You're getting this off. If you're Memphis without including John Jackson junior,
you know you don't need another big of your Philly, but he can compliment
your well embedient. He's the best young player that you have that's not named
John Moran, So I would think he'd be included unless you're just giving up
enough draft equity plus Desmond Baine and Layer Williams, And even then it's like,
all right, are you rerouting a bulk of those assets to a third
team that then sending the Sixers a star. That's what I think is so
complicated about a package like what Memphis could off, or even with san Antonio,
you could talk yourself and they're being good fits for the sixers with players.
But if they're looking for even a fringe star you're looking at you know,
are the Spurs is gonna give up Murray or Memphis Causial They're gonna give
up Jaron Jackson Junior. The other thing is I don't love Ben Simmons is
fit next to John Moran. He needs the ball in his hands. John
Morant isn't a proven shooter yet, even though he did improve his three point
stroke towards the end of last season. So yeah, a lot of just
ify things there. I don't think Memphis would be a contender for Ben Simmons
Stephen. That being said, based off all the assets that you listed out,
and it's really just the draft picks that they've humulated beyond their own,
they could sneak into whatever sweep stakes that they want. I don't know who
the player is necessarily, I'm probably someone under contract or was gonna for multiple
years or commits to resigning with them. I really like Zach Lavina. Memphis
people provided push back on that. I think he'd be a great fit,
but with his upcoming free agency, do you trust him to stay? They
could still get in on that type of a sweep stakes or if there's an
opportunity in twenty twenty two draft to really move up. They have the package
if they want to go take another swing at that co star Apple for John
Moritte, and they're in a really good situation with that. I like their
offseason, I think more than most people did, even though there's like an
oddball directionality to what they're doing. But yeah, overall, I wouldn't expect
them to be involved in Ben Simmons. If he told me that karl anthy
Towns became available, which I don't think he will, like, that would
be someone I could see them going after. John Moritt and karl Anthy Towns
would make sweet Magic together. But that's not you know, karl Anthony town
is not available, and there's not a lot of other young stars that are
under contract for well, it doesn't even have to be young, which is
a lot of other stars under contract that you can envision requesting a trade.
They're not going. I doubt there would be a dark horse for Damian Lillard.
That would really shock me. Rathery be On Levigne. I like both
of them there, but you need commitments from them that they're going to stay.
So yeah, that will be the final question of this mail bag.
Again, I appreciate all the responses we get to these solicitations. Mail Bags
are some of my favorite episodes to do because I like hearing what you guys
were thinking, like responding to your questions. Want to engage you as much
as possible. If you ever have a random question and you're not responding to
a mailbag solicitation, you could hit my DMS up at Damp Valley. You
just at Harder Knocks and at Damp Valley, both of us to make sure
that you see it at Promise or nine as well. Until next time,
I will you get the shout out to the one, the only, the
somehow still unsigned Frank Nilikina