WEBVTT 1 00:00:08.519 --> 00:00:13.080 Good afternoon. You're listening to Gambling with an Edge. Now here are your 2 00:00:13.080 --> 00:00:18.559 host, Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin. Good afternoon, Welcome to Gambling with 3 00:00:18.600 --> 00:00:22.559 an Edge, John, Bob Dancer, and I'm Richard Munchkin. Today our 4 00:00:22.600 --> 00:00:29.679 guest is a repeat visit from Matt at plus EV Analytics. Matt, welcome 5 00:00:29.719 --> 00:00:32.679 back to our show. Thank you so much. Great to be here. 6 00:00:32.719 --> 00:00:37.320 I think this is my third time on this show and I love chatting with 7 00:00:37.359 --> 00:00:41.359 you guys every opportunity I get, so thanks for having me again. Well, 8 00:00:41.399 --> 00:00:46.399 I like your chances of being fourth and fifth. So all right, 9 00:00:46.679 --> 00:00:53.640 let's start off with the Caesar's lawsuit you were involved. What happened? All 10 00:00:53.759 --> 00:00:57.799 right? Yes, I'm currently involved in a little bit of small claims court 11 00:00:58.439 --> 00:01:03.040 litigation against see sports book. So what happened was I bet a lot of 12 00:01:03.599 --> 00:01:08.799 National Football League regular season win totals. It's something I've been working on for 13 00:01:08.840 --> 00:01:14.760 a few years. It's a pretty reliable advantage that I've been able to get 14 00:01:14.840 --> 00:01:19.239 for myself, and I've bet I think over a hundred of them in this 15 00:01:19.319 --> 00:01:23.079 most recent season. So what I like to do as the season goes on 16 00:01:23.359 --> 00:01:29.200 is sort of grade my bets in progress after every week of the NFL season, 17 00:01:29.239 --> 00:01:32.040 just to see how I'm doing. Am I tracking to win, tracking 18 00:01:32.079 --> 00:01:36.359 to lose, tracking to break even. So I had a pretty good idea 19 00:01:36.439 --> 00:01:45.040 of where I stood when that infamous game between Buffalo and Cincinnati was postponed on 20 00:01:45.079 --> 00:01:53.400 the field and then canceled after that horrible cardiac event that themar Hamlin had. 21 00:01:53.840 --> 00:01:57.280 So as soon as they called the game off, I'm going to look at 22 00:01:57.319 --> 00:02:00.159 my stats, and I'm thinking, okay, well, every bet I have 23 00:02:00.760 --> 00:02:05.200 says must play seventeen games for action. I've got a bunch of bets on 24 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:08.680 Buffalo. I've got a bunch of bets on Cincinnati. Some of them were 25 00:02:08.719 --> 00:02:12.919 still live at this point. This was near the end of the season, 26 00:02:12.960 --> 00:02:16.080 so some of those bets were live, some of them were not. I 27 00:02:16.159 --> 00:02:22.000 had one bet that was about a fifty fifty chance of paying out at odds 28 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:24.879 of plus four thousand, so I was in pretty good shape on one of 29 00:02:24.879 --> 00:02:29.639 the bets, and the other ones were not alive at that point. So 30 00:02:29.680 --> 00:02:32.120 I figured it all out. I assumed, Okay, if they don't reschedule 31 00:02:32.159 --> 00:02:38.199 this game, all my bets on Buffalo and Cincinnati are going to get voided. 32 00:02:38.840 --> 00:02:40.199 Some of my losing bets are going to get voided, some of my 33 00:02:40.240 --> 00:02:44.599 bets that are very much live are going to get voided. Overall, I'm 34 00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:50.919 going to end up a little bit down on the event, but not catastrophic. 35 00:02:51.000 --> 00:02:55.840 Life goes on. So the rest of the season finishes off. The 36 00:02:57.000 --> 00:03:01.280 day after the final game of the nflular season, Caesars, who I had 37 00:03:01.319 --> 00:03:05.599 a lot of these bets with, graded all the bets that I had, 38 00:03:05.759 --> 00:03:08.840 except for the ones on Buffalo and Cincinnati. I guess they were trying to 39 00:03:08.879 --> 00:03:14.360 figure out what to do about the fact that they did not play a game 40 00:03:14.439 --> 00:03:19.599 schedule. A couple of days later, I was surprised to find that the 41 00:03:19.680 --> 00:03:24.120 one bet that was live was graded a void and the multiple bets that were 42 00:03:24.199 --> 00:03:32.879 no longer live at that point were graded losses. And this is straight contradiction 43 00:03:34.319 --> 00:03:37.680 to number one what it says right on the bet slip, but just must 44 00:03:37.719 --> 00:03:40.439 play seventeen games for action. And then if you go into read their their 45 00:03:40.479 --> 00:03:46.080 house rules, it also sets for NFL regular sea game that's all games must 46 00:03:46.199 --> 00:03:51.479 All teams must play their full scheduled games for action. Like pretty pretty clear 47 00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:55.360 cut, right, Yeah, I just have to laugh. Because this just 48 00:03:55.400 --> 00:04:00.319 doesn't surprise me at all that they're you know, winners are void and the 49 00:04:00.360 --> 00:04:05.240 losers will keep thank you very much. My first inclination was this is this 50 00:04:05.280 --> 00:04:08.919 is crazy. You know, they're they're free rolling their customers, and this 51 00:04:08.960 --> 00:04:14.479 is outrageous. UM. I later heard from some other people who had bets 52 00:04:15.039 --> 00:04:21.399 that were UM guaranteed winners that Caesars actually did pay out, so I can't 53 00:04:21.439 --> 00:04:27.000 accuse them of free rolling because it seems like I didn't have any bets that 54 00:04:27.000 --> 00:04:31.040 that qualified to be paid out because they would have won regardless of the outcome 55 00:04:31.079 --> 00:04:35.240 of this missing game. I only had some bets that lost and some bets 56 00:04:35.319 --> 00:04:44.399 that were unsettled, so I wasn't personally I didn't get any winners, but 57 00:04:44.480 --> 00:04:47.240 I heard of some others who did, UM, so it wasn't a complete 58 00:04:47.240 --> 00:04:54.800 free roll situation. But that still doesn't excuse them violating their own house rules. 59 00:04:55.639 --> 00:05:00.079 So I complained to them, and they gave me the usual line of 60 00:05:00.560 --> 00:05:04.399 this is the decision our traders made and we're sticking with it. And you 61 00:05:04.399 --> 00:05:08.720 know, I tried to tell them that that you know, your traders don't 62 00:05:08.759 --> 00:05:13.759 have the authority to violate the terms and conditions of your contract, and they 63 00:05:13.800 --> 00:05:17.879 really wanted nothing to do with it, and they said too bad. So 64 00:05:18.199 --> 00:05:26.920 my next point of contact was the gaming regulator in my home province of Ontario, 65 00:05:27.399 --> 00:05:30.720 and I'm thinking, for sure, these guys are going to get involved 66 00:05:30.480 --> 00:05:34.879 and they are going to decide with me. I'm going to get my money 67 00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:40.720 back. Everyone else in the same situation, at least those in Ontario are 68 00:05:40.759 --> 00:05:43.160 going to be able to get their money back, and we're going to be 69 00:05:43.199 --> 00:05:46.800 able to put this whole thing behind us. So the Gaming Commission took a 70 00:05:46.800 --> 00:05:51.160 couple of weeks and they told me they were in contact with Caesars to get 71 00:05:51.199 --> 00:05:58.000 their side of the story, and they made their decision and they sided with 72 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:01.560 Caesars. And I'm thinking, there's no way this can possibly be true, 73 00:06:01.600 --> 00:06:06.720 Like, am I missing something? So I asked them, well, what 74 00:06:06.800 --> 00:06:11.120 was the reason for their decision, and they said, we're not going to 75 00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:14.000 tell you that. You have to go back to Caesar's and ask them. 76 00:06:14.839 --> 00:06:19.360 So I did, and the reason I got from Caesar's was there is a 77 00:06:19.439 --> 00:06:26.519 rule in the general Terms and Conditions section of their house rules. It's called 78 00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:30.600 the Infamous Rule three. And what it says that is that for all markets. 79 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:36.160 For all football markets, fifty five minutes of game action must be played 80 00:06:36.800 --> 00:06:42.800 for the bets to have action. Is sentenced one sentence two of that rule 81 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:48.120 is if a game is postponed, it must be rescheduled within seven days, 82 00:06:48.399 --> 00:06:54.639 otherwise all bets are void. So a couple issues with this, and this 83 00:06:54.680 --> 00:07:00.480 is the grounds for my lawsuit in Small Claims Court Number one. It is 84 00:07:00.759 --> 00:07:06.000 very clearly obvious that this fifty five minute rule is intended to apply to single 85 00:07:06.120 --> 00:07:12.120 game bets and not you have to play fifty five minutes of the season for 86 00:07:12.240 --> 00:07:16.319 bets to have action, because that is just an absurd reading of that rule. 87 00:07:17.079 --> 00:07:23.319 My problem number two is that there is a contradiction between this general rule 88 00:07:23.439 --> 00:07:29.079 and the more specific rule both on the bet slip and in the NFL regular 89 00:07:29.079 --> 00:07:33.079 Season Wins section that says must play seventeen games for action. And it's a 90 00:07:33.199 --> 00:07:38.600 very well known principle of law, both in Canada and in the US that 91 00:07:39.160 --> 00:07:44.199 whenever there's a contradiction between a more general rule and a more specific rule, 92 00:07:44.480 --> 00:07:49.720 the more specific rule takes priority. So Caesars did not abide by that. 93 00:07:50.360 --> 00:07:56.120 And then my third justification is the second sentence in the infamous. Three. 94 00:07:56.240 --> 00:08:00.480 It says if a game is postponed, which it was, it must be 95 00:08:00.519 --> 00:08:05.680 replayed within seven days, which it was not. So I've got three I 96 00:08:05.720 --> 00:08:13.720 think fairly stable, fairly solid legal arguments on my side, and so I 97 00:08:13.759 --> 00:08:20.560 filed this lawsuit in Ontario small Every person I've talked to, whether they're industry 98 00:08:20.680 --> 00:08:26.319 experts, regulatory experts, legal experts, the criticism I've got has been that 99 00:08:26.399 --> 00:08:30.800 it's this is not worth my time for what's basically a twenty three hundred dollars 100 00:08:31.839 --> 00:08:37.240 refund that I'm seeking. People have questioned that, but zero people I've spoken 101 00:08:37.279 --> 00:08:41.320 to have questioned me on the merits of the case. One hundred percent of 102 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:46.360 people that I have spoken to believe that I am in the right on this 103 00:08:46.399 --> 00:08:50.720 case. Well, the other thing that I think is kind of brilliant is 104 00:08:50.759 --> 00:08:54.720 to use small claims court where they can't, you know, paper you to 105 00:08:54.799 --> 00:09:00.240 death and lawyer you to death, where it definitely would not be worth the 106 00:09:00.279 --> 00:09:03.559 amount of money you would have to spend to actually bring the case. But 107 00:09:03.759 --> 00:09:09.080 in small claims court, they're basically there are no lawyers right right, no 108 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:11.480 lawyers that the filing fees. I think one hundred and three dollars or something 109 00:09:11.519 --> 00:09:16.799 so pretty small. Yeah, going going to regular court would not have been 110 00:09:16.840 --> 00:09:20.320 an option for me because it would have been you know, the legal fees 111 00:09:20.399 --> 00:09:22.759 for my own case would have been higher than what I could have recovered. 112 00:09:24.399 --> 00:09:28.600 My only two real options were a small claims court and a class action, 113 00:09:30.200 --> 00:09:35.080 And while a class action would have been fun, I think it probably would 114 00:09:35.120 --> 00:09:39.240 have been a little bit too much of a drain on my time, um 115 00:09:39.639 --> 00:09:43.399 for for what I had to gain. Now. One of the reasons I 116 00:09:43.440 --> 00:09:50.039 am making this pursuit as public as I am as that I know that I 117 00:09:50.120 --> 00:09:54.879 am not the only person who has had bets incorrectly graded as a result of 118 00:09:54.879 --> 00:10:01.399 this, and I would like everyone to be able to to get what they 119 00:10:01.440 --> 00:10:03.759 are owed, not just me. So I'm hoping to set a precedent. 120 00:10:03.960 --> 00:10:09.120 And I've said publicly that if Caesar's lawyers were to call me tomorrow and say, 121 00:10:09.159 --> 00:10:11.879 hey, I'll give you your twenty three hundred bucks, but you have 122 00:10:11.919 --> 00:10:16.399 to sign a confidentiality agreement and never speak of this again, my answer would 123 00:10:16.399 --> 00:10:22.039 be no. I am coming not only for myself, but as a representative 124 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:30.519 of the community that has to deal with so many legal shenanigans. In terms 125 00:10:30.720 --> 00:10:37.240 of limiting sharps and unfair marketing practices with risk free bets and all these things. 126 00:10:37.360 --> 00:10:41.200 They're legally allowed to do all those things, so I can't stop them. 127 00:10:41.399 --> 00:10:45.080 The least I can do on behalf of my community is stop them from 128 00:10:45.080 --> 00:10:50.919 doing something that is illegal. Yeah. I've almost thought that if I were 129 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:58.240 to ever be involved in a lawsuit, and you know, maybe my attitude 130 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:03.840 would change if I've actually gone through it, but my attitude would be uh, 131 00:11:03.879 --> 00:11:09.120 the confidentiality agreement would be a deal breaker, like, you know, 132 00:11:11.120 --> 00:11:15.440 because yeah, I would want a public what what they do to people? 133 00:11:16.000 --> 00:11:20.879 Um, yeah, so definitely. And you know, as as someone who 134 00:11:20.879 --> 00:11:22.759 has a little bit of a voice in the space, you know, the 135 00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:26.919 money itself is not all that consequential to me. It's it's it's a decent 136 00:11:26.960 --> 00:11:31.360 amount of money and I don't want to lose it. But that's not the 137 00:11:31.360 --> 00:11:33.320 main reason I'm doing this. The main reason I'm doing this is number one, 138 00:11:33.399 --> 00:11:37.639 just to be able to have a good story to tell and number two 139 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:41.600 to help the community. And I hope to succeed in both of those, 140 00:11:41.440 --> 00:11:46.440 both of those goals. Yeah, fighting the good fight, that's right. 141 00:11:46.159 --> 00:11:50.480 Well, I don't know if I ever rewards offered a quarter million dollars from 142 00:11:50.480 --> 00:11:52.759 a casino, but I had to be quiet about it. I don't know 143 00:11:52.799 --> 00:11:56.600 how much principle i'd have at that point. I'm not sure either. But 144 00:11:58.000 --> 00:12:01.120 it's not it's not all or nothing, right, I mean, it's not 145 00:12:01.440 --> 00:12:05.879 zero or two fifty. The problem is that most people, I think, 146 00:12:05.879 --> 00:12:13.559 they fold way too soon and and say no, this is a deal breaker. 147 00:12:13.639 --> 00:12:16.559 The confidentiality apart and let them come back to you with a new offer. 148 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:22.960 Is so for example, you know, there's a horrendous case of a 149 00:12:24.080 --> 00:12:28.480 well known advantage player who had the crap beat out of him between the ex 150 00:12:28.559 --> 00:12:33.840 Caliber and the Luxur. I mean, I mean this was shortly after I 151 00:12:33.879 --> 00:12:39.000 think the October first thing, and you know, when they hired they started 152 00:12:39.080 --> 00:12:45.799 hiring like security guards who thought they were SWAT team members in you know, 153 00:12:46.039 --> 00:12:50.360 jack boots and anyway, they beat the crap out of him. Conveniently, 154 00:12:52.039 --> 00:12:58.279 the video seemed to have disappeared, you know, and apparently there was a 155 00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:05.480 settlement that was too everyone's agreement or whatever. But but there was a confidentiality 156 00:13:05.519 --> 00:13:09.159 about it, which I think is a shame because I you know, I'd 157 00:13:09.159 --> 00:13:13.639 love to see that on National Lose that casinos beat the crap out of people. 158 00:13:15.159 --> 00:13:18.840 Yeah, but well that this one isn't quite as injurious to me. 159 00:13:18.080 --> 00:13:24.799 No, no, Yeah, it's a similar idea, And I can a 160 00:13:24.879 --> 00:13:28.200 little tiny bit of me can sympathize with Caesars because I think what happened was 161 00:13:28.720 --> 00:13:33.639 they misunderstood their own rules and their initial decision. They actually paid out some 162 00:13:33.679 --> 00:13:37.600 winners that they should have avoided as well, so that if they go back 163 00:13:37.600 --> 00:13:41.679 and do the right thing now, they will end up paying the winners and 164 00:13:41.759 --> 00:13:46.279 kind of avoiding some of the bets that would have lost. But that's their 165 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:50.159 problem, like they should have read their own rules carefully before they took any 166 00:13:50.159 --> 00:13:54.519 action at all. So that that is my microscopic level of sympathy. But 167 00:13:54.679 --> 00:14:00.639 Caesar's is one of many sports books. There's MJAM, DraftKings Fan, SI 168 00:14:00.759 --> 00:14:07.399 Sports, etc. Did they take the same road that Caesar's did or did 169 00:14:07.399 --> 00:14:11.519 they handle it more honorably? I believe they handled it the right way. 170 00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:16.440 Now, all of the bets in question, on my own personal account, 171 00:14:16.519 --> 00:14:22.240 happened to be at Caesar's, so I don't have firsthand experience with how this 172 00:14:22.279 --> 00:14:24.120 would have been treated at any of the other books just did. All my 173 00:14:24.159 --> 00:14:28.559 action on these teams just happened to be at Caesar's. But I don't. 174 00:14:28.600 --> 00:14:37.399 I haven't heard of any other sites having graded this as incorrectly as as Caesar's 175 00:14:37.440 --> 00:14:41.519 did, or the ones that did. Some books actually have a cause in 176 00:14:41.559 --> 00:14:46.519 their rules that says must play seventeen games unless the outcome has already been established. 177 00:14:46.919 --> 00:14:50.759 And if Caesar's had had that in their house rules, I wouldn't have 178 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:56.360 a case. But but they don't. All right, let's move on. 179 00:14:56.159 --> 00:15:03.039 You taught a course in base in probability an Analytics dot bet, or maybe 180 00:15:03.039 --> 00:15:07.159 you're teaching it again. Tell us about that. Yeah, so I did 181 00:15:07.240 --> 00:15:11.360 teach a course. Um. The first offering of this course was about a 182 00:15:11.440 --> 00:15:16.000 year ago. It was last the winter of twenty two. It was a 183 00:15:16.000 --> 00:15:22.240 twelve week course. I was honored to be invited by the principles, the 184 00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:28.240 owners of Analytics dot Bet, Harry Crane, Philip Myiman, who I got 185 00:15:28.279 --> 00:15:31.840 to know last year, and I've become friends with great people, really smart 186 00:15:33.039 --> 00:15:39.519 professors, and they started this this school called Analytics dot Bet, which aims 187 00:15:39.639 --> 00:15:48.519 to provide an education in sports betting that is of a university level of quality. 188 00:15:48.159 --> 00:15:52.679 And so my course is I mean, isn't more like graduate level or 189 00:15:54.000 --> 00:15:58.000 um There are different tracks. So when I when I came out with my 190 00:15:58.159 --> 00:16:04.159 course, I made I made a conscious effort to make it I guess what 191 00:16:04.200 --> 00:16:10.639 you would call undergraduate level. So nothing in my course required any more than 192 00:16:10.679 --> 00:16:15.120 a high school level mathematics background, because I really wanted to make this as 193 00:16:15.240 --> 00:16:21.879 accessible to a wide range of potential students as I could. If if I'd 194 00:16:21.879 --> 00:16:23.799 said you need a math degree to take this course, you know, I 195 00:16:23.879 --> 00:16:29.519 doubt I would have had many takers. So I believe that's the case for 196 00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:34.519 most or all of their offering. It would be kind of undergraduate or lower 197 00:16:34.879 --> 00:16:41.320 kind of level such that it's open to the widest possible number of potential students. 198 00:16:41.799 --> 00:16:47.080 So I talked this course it covers what I like to call small data. 199 00:16:47.240 --> 00:16:49.320 Everyone talks about big data these days, big data. This big data 200 00:16:49.399 --> 00:16:53.320 that I don't specialize in big data. I specialize in small data. And 201 00:16:53.360 --> 00:17:00.159 what I mean by that is what do you do when you have information that 202 00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:07.240 is of a sample size that is too large to ignore, but too small 203 00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:12.119 to completely rely on. And this is something that is taught I think fairly 204 00:17:12.160 --> 00:17:19.160 well in the actuarial education system, but not all that well anywhere else. 205 00:17:19.799 --> 00:17:25.480 So what I try to do is take what I've learned both in my formal 206 00:17:25.599 --> 00:17:32.279 education and in my years of practice and distill it to something that is useful 207 00:17:32.359 --> 00:17:37.799 for practitioners in the sports betting space. And there's a big difference between teaching 208 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:41.359 in an academic setting and teaching in a practitioner set. So I'm not giving 209 00:17:41.359 --> 00:17:47.599 any proofs of theorems. I'm not using any Greek letters, I'm not using 210 00:17:47.640 --> 00:17:52.240 any calculus. There's a lot of things that are kind of gate keep in 211 00:17:52.279 --> 00:17:56.960 the academic world that don't really resonate a lot with me as someone who's trying 212 00:17:57.000 --> 00:18:02.799 to actually use this stuff in the real world. So it was really focused 213 00:18:02.839 --> 00:18:07.200 on a real world, practical kind of of contacts. We had fifty one 214 00:18:07.279 --> 00:18:11.039 students, which is actually quite a few more than I had been expecting. 215 00:18:11.039 --> 00:18:15.960 I would have been happy with twin ended up with fifty one. The majority 216 00:18:15.000 --> 00:18:21.079 of the feedback I got what was good actually had a couple of success stories 217 00:18:21.079 --> 00:18:23.079 come out of that class. So you had Amber, my friend Amber on 218 00:18:23.920 --> 00:18:30.640 about a month or two. She is a graduamble class Amber Gamble. She's 219 00:18:30.680 --> 00:18:37.039 great, and she came into the class with not too much of a mathematical 220 00:18:37.559 --> 00:18:41.799 or a sports betting background, and she has really made a name for herself 221 00:18:41.799 --> 00:18:48.440 in the community and also a niche for herself in the betting space. So 222 00:18:48.480 --> 00:18:53.079 that's one. Another one of my former students actually got a job working with 223 00:18:53.240 --> 00:18:56.039 Rufus Peabody, who I think you've had on here, Fumes, who was 224 00:18:56.079 --> 00:19:02.039 one of the sports betters out there. So yeah, I think so most 225 00:19:02.039 --> 00:19:07.000 of the people got what they wanted to or more out of the class in 226 00:19:07.079 --> 00:19:12.799 terms of what comes next. So the recordings of the lectures are have been 227 00:19:12.799 --> 00:19:18.200 and are still available for kind of purchase, and taking the course sort of 228 00:19:18.200 --> 00:19:25.799 offline at your own pace is something that is right now at Analytics. I 229 00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:32.920 would love to do a second round of live classes if and when we get 230 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:38.440 the sort of critical mass of interest that is needed to do it. I 231 00:19:38.480 --> 00:19:44.640 think Harry and his team have also had some discussions offering the coast in an 232 00:19:45.079 --> 00:19:48.559 institutional corporate setting, you know, whether you have a sports book that has 233 00:19:48.559 --> 00:19:52.880 maybe twenty employees who want to all take the class or something like that. 234 00:19:52.960 --> 00:19:56.279 I think that we're investigating as well. So lots of lots of different things 235 00:19:56.319 --> 00:20:00.839 that we might do with that in the future without getting too far into the 236 00:20:00.839 --> 00:20:06.000 weeds. Can you give an example of the kind of small data you're talking 237 00:20:06.039 --> 00:20:11.799 about where Yeah, definitely. One of the earliest problems that we look at 238 00:20:11.839 --> 00:20:18.480 over the course of the class is NBA halftime totals. So let's say you 239 00:20:18.519 --> 00:20:22.000 have an NBA game. Pregame total is two forty, So the first half 240 00:20:22.079 --> 00:20:26.640 is now finished, and there have been one hundred points scored in the first 241 00:20:26.680 --> 00:20:32.240 half. Where do you put the second half total? And the two sort 242 00:20:32.279 --> 00:20:36.799 of extreme ends of the schools of thought are. Number one would be, 243 00:20:36.960 --> 00:20:41.960 Okay, what I learned in the first half is completely reliable. There were 244 00:20:41.000 --> 00:20:45.240 one hundred points score to the first half. I'm going to extrapolate that, 245 00:20:45.559 --> 00:20:48.279 and two hundred would be my fair, you know, live total at halftime. 246 00:20:48.799 --> 00:20:52.720 The other extreme end of the spectrum is to say, okay, well, 247 00:20:52.079 --> 00:20:57.440 the hundred points that we observed in the first half has zero predictive value 248 00:20:57.960 --> 00:21:03.960 at all. I'm going to revert to what's called my prior of two hundred 249 00:21:03.960 --> 00:21:07.880 and forty points per game or one hundred and twenty point per half. I 250 00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:10.519 know there's a little bit of a scoring difference between the first and second half, 251 00:21:10.519 --> 00:21:14.200 but let's ignore that for the sake of example. I'm going to take 252 00:21:14.200 --> 00:21:18.559 one hundred and twenty I expect in the second half plus one hundred I already 253 00:21:18.559 --> 00:21:23.759 observed in the first half, and two twenty would be my fair live total. 254 00:21:25.240 --> 00:21:30.000 And really the world of small data lives in between that two hundred and 255 00:21:30.119 --> 00:21:34.319 that two twenty, And it really depends how much weight you want to give 256 00:21:34.480 --> 00:21:38.519 to your observation what you saw in the first half, versus how much weight 257 00:21:38.519 --> 00:21:42.880 you want to give to your prior. And one of the questions that is 258 00:21:42.920 --> 00:21:47.720 important there is, okay, well you thought the pregame total was two forty. 259 00:21:48.279 --> 00:21:52.160 How sure were you of that? Were you absolutely certain two forty was 260 00:21:52.200 --> 00:21:56.079 the right number, or was two forty the center of a range that might 261 00:21:56.119 --> 00:22:02.079 have gone from you know, one eighty up to three hundred any estimate we 262 00:22:02.119 --> 00:22:04.759 make. And this is a cool thing about sports betting. Compared to roulette 263 00:22:04.839 --> 00:22:10.559 or blackjack or craps, all of the probabilities in sports betting have to be 264 00:22:10.720 --> 00:22:17.480 estimated from data from markets, from whatever, whereas in most games in the 265 00:22:17.519 --> 00:22:22.880 casino, the probabilities are a natural consequence of the laws of physics. So 266 00:22:22.920 --> 00:22:27.160 there's an extra layer of uncertainty whenever you are dealing with probabilities in a sports 267 00:22:27.160 --> 00:22:32.119 betting contest. And that is what this chorus is all about, because you're 268 00:22:32.440 --> 00:22:37.599 estimating probabilities based on information. Information is always changing, You're always getting new 269 00:22:37.640 --> 00:22:41.400 information, and you have to decide, well, how much should I trust 270 00:22:41.480 --> 00:22:45.839 my new information? How much should I trust my number before I got that 271 00:22:45.920 --> 00:22:49.559 new information? What is signal? What is noise? And all these cool 272 00:22:49.599 --> 00:22:55.640 things that form the basis of the class what used to be called Bayesian sports 273 00:22:55.640 --> 00:23:02.519 betting and is now known as the art of sports betting, And that's Harry's 274 00:23:02.599 --> 00:23:06.400 name. Yeah, I don't mind it, because there there there is some 275 00:23:06.599 --> 00:23:11.960 art and there is some science really to this, more so than most kind 276 00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:15.000 of probabilistic analysis that you might see in advantage betting. You know there there 277 00:23:15.039 --> 00:23:19.079 there is an art layer in terms of how you set your model up, 278 00:23:19.119 --> 00:23:23.680 how you make your assumptions, because no model is perfect. Um you have 279 00:23:23.759 --> 00:23:27.240 to come up with the data, the way you're going to use the data, 280 00:23:27.319 --> 00:23:30.960 the assumptions you're going to make in a way that gives you the most 281 00:23:32.079 --> 00:23:40.880 accurate possible outcomes with the minimal level of processing work. And that's the challenge, 282 00:23:41.440 --> 00:23:45.839 all right. Last year in April, there was an event in Vegas 283 00:23:45.839 --> 00:23:52.200 called bet Bash two. Uh you were there? How did that go for 284 00:23:52.240 --> 00:23:56.720 you? I was there, Um, my expectations going in. I didn't 285 00:23:56.759 --> 00:24:00.920 really know what to expect. You know. I had been too um in 286 00:24:02.039 --> 00:24:06.480 real life gambling meet outs before, back when I played poker many many years 287 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:11.000 ago. I had been to academic conferences before. I didn't know if this 288 00:24:11.079 --> 00:24:15.440 was going to be more like one, more like the other, combination of 289 00:24:15.480 --> 00:24:18.799 both. You know. It was really, um, the first of its 290 00:24:18.839 --> 00:24:22.799 kind other than that one day kind of bet Bash one that I wasn't able 291 00:24:22.799 --> 00:24:27.359 to attend because it was my son's birthday that day. Um. But yeah, 292 00:24:27.400 --> 00:24:33.079 bet Bash two was time of my life. I just loved every minute 293 00:24:33.079 --> 00:24:37.440 of it. I had a hoarse voice by the end of it, as 294 00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:41.720 I think from talking so much, from hearing so many interesting stories, um, 295 00:24:42.079 --> 00:24:47.559 from from meeting Richard. Uh. I got there. That I got 296 00:24:47.599 --> 00:24:48.759 there. I think it was one of the first events and I like, 297 00:24:48.799 --> 00:24:52.559 here, there's Richard, Richard Munchkin. Excuse me. Uh, you know, 298 00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:56.839 I'm going to go introduce myself and and you know, he was just 299 00:24:56.880 --> 00:25:00.119 the nicest guy, and we started talking and we became friends. And you 300 00:25:00.160 --> 00:25:06.559 know, some of these people who I had only interacted with on Twitter and 301 00:25:06.599 --> 00:25:10.640 on a couple of podcasts, just meeting these people in real life was really 302 00:25:10.839 --> 00:25:15.960 it was like advantage betting fantasy camp and then getting to meet Jelco, who 303 00:25:17.079 --> 00:25:23.200 is arguably the greatest of all time in terms of advantage players. I was 304 00:25:23.319 --> 00:25:27.079 at I think the opening event talking to Rufus, and Rufus said, Hey, 305 00:25:27.359 --> 00:25:30.160 Gelco's here, how would you like to meet him? And I said, 306 00:25:30.200 --> 00:25:32.759 of course, I'd like to meet him. So Rufus introduces me, 307 00:25:32.839 --> 00:25:37.559 and he was just the humble, kind, nicest guy, like for somebody 308 00:25:37.599 --> 00:25:41.480 who has had the success and the wealth that he has, like you would 309 00:25:41.519 --> 00:25:45.480 never be able to tell just from talking to the guy. He was like 310 00:25:45.559 --> 00:25:51.440 the epitome of down to earth. And talk to him a couple of times 311 00:25:51.519 --> 00:25:56.359 during the course of the event, which was worth the price of admission on 312 00:25:56.400 --> 00:26:00.519 its own, And you know, he and I still text each other occasionally. 313 00:26:00.519 --> 00:26:03.000 He texts me out of nowhere to wish me a happy New Year and 314 00:26:03.119 --> 00:26:06.680 like, who am I? I'm nobody And he's the greatest there ever was 315 00:26:07.160 --> 00:26:11.599 and just to be UM in that situation and get to meet someone like that, 316 00:26:11.720 --> 00:26:15.319 you know, as well as the other amazing people such as yourself Richard 317 00:26:15.359 --> 00:26:21.960 who who were there. Uh. It is something that I would call it 318 00:26:22.000 --> 00:26:26.279 a once in a lifetime opportunity. But it's just been announced as bet Bash 319 00:26:26.359 --> 00:26:30.319 three coming up this August, and I'm planning on being there. I hope, 320 00:26:30.119 --> 00:26:37.240 I hope you Richard and you Bob are are going to get to Uh. 321 00:26:37.240 --> 00:26:44.759 It is going to be able to It's it's were they are. They 322 00:26:44.839 --> 00:26:47.599 talking about having it in a couple of different places. I think Costa Rica 323 00:26:47.799 --> 00:26:52.519 was was one of the that would be interesting. There's there's there's so many 324 00:26:52.799 --> 00:26:55.799 uh, there's so many offshore sites that are that are based there, so 325 00:26:55.839 --> 00:27:00.400 it would make some sense. He's just for US North Americans to get to. 326 00:27:00.440 --> 00:27:03.680 UM. Yeah, I think Chicago might have been mentioned. New York 327 00:27:03.720 --> 00:27:06.000 would have them, and I think at the end of the day, Vegas 328 00:27:06.119 --> 00:27:11.400 is just the easiest to get to. Hotel prices of reasonable. The Circa 329 00:27:12.000 --> 00:27:15.920 was a fantastic coast last year, and I believe they're opening or have opened 330 00:27:15.960 --> 00:27:22.920 some new conference space in the Circa. Whereas we had to have most of 331 00:27:22.960 --> 00:27:26.720 the conference activities down the street. It's d U last year, so I 332 00:27:27.119 --> 00:27:33.480 think, well they do. They had a theater that they debuted for the 333 00:27:33.640 --> 00:27:37.160 Super Bowl and they had the super Bowl party and it was, um, 334 00:27:37.559 --> 00:27:41.759 it would be a suitable a similar size to the d ballroom that they use 335 00:27:41.880 --> 00:27:47.559 last year for Beet Besh too and okay, yeah, so I believe that 336 00:27:47.680 --> 00:27:51.480 is where it is going to be. Um. I hope they have seminars 337 00:27:51.519 --> 00:27:55.079 again. And this is another thing that was just a bucket list opportunity for 338 00:27:55.119 --> 00:27:59.240 me to be able to not only attend but present as part of the Analytics 339 00:27:59.279 --> 00:28:06.759 Dott seminar where you have just some of the greatest minds in gambling just kind 340 00:28:06.759 --> 00:28:10.359 of sitting there and listening to me give a presentation. It's just something. 341 00:28:10.759 --> 00:28:12.599 It's one of those things in life where you're like, all right, you 342 00:28:12.640 --> 00:28:15.599 know, I can hang with these guys kind of I'm I'm in the big 343 00:28:15.680 --> 00:28:18.160 leagues now, and it was it was special for me to do well. 344 00:28:18.200 --> 00:28:23.119 I I really enjoyed the panel discussions too. Um you know, I mean, 345 00:28:23.160 --> 00:28:26.519 I'm not even a sports better, but um, I just found them 346 00:28:26.519 --> 00:28:33.799 really interesting and um and entertaining, and I yeah, I thoroughly enjoyed um 347 00:28:33.920 --> 00:28:37.759 that bash. I had a great time. I didn't know what to expect. 348 00:28:37.400 --> 00:28:41.200 Um. You know, basically I was like, all right, well 349 00:28:41.200 --> 00:28:48.640 I'm gonna go and basically troll for guests for the show. But but as 350 00:28:48.640 --> 00:28:52.519 I say, yeah, yeah, but yeah, I had a I had 351 00:28:52.559 --> 00:28:56.240 a great time. It was it was a lot of fun. And uh, 352 00:28:56.279 --> 00:29:00.920 I fits in August at Circa. I will be there. It is 353 00:29:02.680 --> 00:29:07.039 great. It is, I believe August eighth through the eleventh at the Circle. 354 00:29:07.200 --> 00:29:11.559 You can go to betbash dot CEO, I believe is the website. 355 00:29:11.039 --> 00:29:15.079 I'm sure Spanky would come on here and uh and talk to you all about 356 00:29:15.119 --> 00:29:21.720 it. Actually he's planning to Um, there's a we're just waiting for a 357 00:29:21.759 --> 00:29:26.319 certain announcement about some stuff and then when it's already then he's going to come 358 00:29:26.319 --> 00:29:30.880 on and all right I can't wait on Yeah, all right. I think 359 00:29:30.920 --> 00:29:36.480 also the timing of it has to do with um, you know, the 360 00:29:36.480 --> 00:29:42.920 whole football you know, tournaments there at Circa m you know, getting people 361 00:29:44.000 --> 00:29:48.720 there prior to the whole football season starting. And yeah, that would make 362 00:29:48.720 --> 00:29:52.920 sense because that would be primetime to sign up for the Circa Survivor of the 363 00:29:52.960 --> 00:29:57.039 circa millions the other contests that are yeah going on around town. So yeah, 364 00:29:57.039 --> 00:30:00.799 that would make sense because I'm sure a lot of these contest entrants from 365 00:30:00.839 --> 00:30:06.559 out of town would plan to travel to Vegas anyway at some point during the 366 00:30:06.599 --> 00:30:08.559 few weeks leading up to the season so they can register for these contests. 367 00:30:08.920 --> 00:30:15.000 Do you play any of those contests? I didn't last year. I did 368 00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:21.839 a couple of years ago. Maybe I will again next year. The one 369 00:30:21.880 --> 00:30:26.640 thing that that sort of turned me off these contests when I played the I 370 00:30:26.640 --> 00:30:30.720 believe it was the Super Contest. I think it was about three years ago 371 00:30:30.759 --> 00:30:33.799 I played. I had a group of people who were friends of mine here 372 00:30:33.880 --> 00:30:40.680 in Toronto and we had a joint entry. We cashed for a pretty small 373 00:30:40.720 --> 00:30:45.000 amount, I think a couple of thousand bucks and they actually withheld I think 374 00:30:45.039 --> 00:30:51.440 it was thirty or thirty five percent tax. And you know, I know 375 00:30:51.480 --> 00:30:56.799 that's that's normal for you Americans, but in Canada, gambling winnings are not 376 00:30:56.960 --> 00:31:00.200 taxable, and I believe it's that way in most of the world. Think 377 00:31:00.200 --> 00:31:06.200 the Americans are the are the outliers on this. So um, whenever you 378 00:31:06.440 --> 00:31:11.119 enter one of these tournaments based in the US, anything you win gets taxed 379 00:31:11.160 --> 00:31:12.519 and you can get it back, but it's a real hassle, a lot 380 00:31:12.519 --> 00:31:17.440 of paperwork. You have to fill in some irs paperwork to reclaim the money, 381 00:31:18.079 --> 00:31:22.200 and that that whole experience kind of turned me off the contest circuit, 382 00:31:22.319 --> 00:31:27.279 just because once you factor in at tax consequences, um, you know, 383 00:31:27.279 --> 00:31:30.880 the EV becomes way lower. It's a lot of work. You have to 384 00:31:30.960 --> 00:31:34.359 keep track if you're if you're doing Survivor, you have to play in your 385 00:31:34.359 --> 00:31:40.279 whole strategy and then adjust that things happen during the season. If you're playing 386 00:31:40.359 --> 00:31:45.000 the pick Um contest, whether it's a Circle Millions or the Westgate Super Contest, 387 00:31:45.440 --> 00:31:48.400 you've got to figure out your whole kind of algorithm for how much you're 388 00:31:48.400 --> 00:31:52.480 going to wait that the steam plays, and how much you're going to you 389 00:31:52.480 --> 00:31:56.359 know, fade the public or fade the Sunday Night game because everyone likes to 390 00:31:56.359 --> 00:32:00.200 play that and it's just not something that I had enough enough free time to 391 00:32:00.240 --> 00:32:05.839 think about last year, but lots of time this year to try and change 392 00:32:05.839 --> 00:32:07.799 my mind on that one. 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The real time odd screen tools and calculators 416 00:34:04.359 --> 00:34:07.360 take a lot of the guesswork out of trying to quantify your itche There's also 417 00:34:07.400 --> 00:34:12.639 plenty of free education and instruction to help you along your journey to becoming a 418 00:34:12.719 --> 00:34:16.039 sharper sports better. You can currently take advantage of a seven day free trial 419 00:34:16.159 --> 00:34:21.440 to decide if the premium membership at unabated is right for you. All right, 420 00:34:21.480 --> 00:34:24.559 we're talking with Matt at plus CEV Analytics. Now. When you were 421 00:34:24.679 --> 00:34:30.199 last on our show, we learned that you have a full time job and 422 00:34:30.280 --> 00:34:37.639 are part time sports Better. Richard asked you if you ever wanted to become 423 00:34:37.719 --> 00:34:45.039 a full time sports better and you said, basically, you're better off with 424 00:34:45.079 --> 00:34:47.880 a full time job. Now. Has that changed in the last two years 425 00:34:49.039 --> 00:34:52.840 or do you see it changing soon? That has not changed in the last 426 00:34:52.840 --> 00:34:59.840 two years. I don't anticipate it changing anytime soon, And really the reasons 427 00:35:00.039 --> 00:35:06.079 haven't changed either. I have a great job at a great company that I 428 00:35:06.800 --> 00:35:10.159 enjoy. I enjoy the work, I enjoy the people, the money is 429 00:35:10.199 --> 00:35:17.559 decent, and I'm really trying to have it all because, yes, I 430 00:35:17.639 --> 00:35:23.719 have been fairly successful in sports betting. Twenty twenty two was my best year 431 00:35:23.840 --> 00:35:32.760 ever, mostly because my home jurisdiction of Ontario finally opened up legalized in twenty 432 00:35:32.800 --> 00:35:38.840 twenty two. But it's just not something I could see myself doing full time, 433 00:35:39.840 --> 00:35:45.679 even if I could make a living income this year and next year and 434 00:35:45.719 --> 00:35:51.679 maybe the year after. I've got a good twenty plus years of working career 435 00:35:52.400 --> 00:35:58.320 left, and I am not confident enough that I can predict what the state 436 00:35:58.400 --> 00:36:02.559 of sports betting is going to you like as we get towards the tail end 437 00:36:02.599 --> 00:36:09.400 of my working years, to be able to be confident that this can put 438 00:36:09.440 --> 00:36:14.920 food on the table for the rest of my life. So that's the main 439 00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:22.480 reason why I'm continuing in my dual role as a full time actuary and a 440 00:36:22.599 --> 00:36:28.639 gambler in my spare time as a hobby. You were before we started off 441 00:36:28.679 --> 00:36:32.679 the air, you were kind of pessimistic about the future of sports betting. 442 00:36:35.280 --> 00:36:39.519 Why was that? I am, and I think i'm I'm the minority in 443 00:36:40.639 --> 00:36:46.519 what I'm about to say. But let me offer you an analogy. So 444 00:36:46.880 --> 00:36:52.280 say you have an intersection of two really busy roads, four lane roads north 445 00:36:52.320 --> 00:36:59.119 south east west busy intersection, Okay, and suppose at all four corners of 446 00:36:59.159 --> 00:37:04.039 this intersection and our gas station, you have four different gas stations. They're 447 00:37:04.239 --> 00:37:08.119 each setting their own price, and they each offer four different types of gas 448 00:37:08.159 --> 00:37:14.039 your economy, your mid grade, your premium, and your diesel. Okay, 449 00:37:14.440 --> 00:37:17.719 they're each setting their own price, and just by coincidence, each one 450 00:37:17.880 --> 00:37:23.280 happens to be a couple cents cheaper than the others on one of a different 451 00:37:23.320 --> 00:37:29.920 one of the four types of gas. So you have four gas stations, 452 00:37:30.000 --> 00:37:34.400 each one is a little bit cheaper on their own type. But unless you 453 00:37:34.559 --> 00:37:40.679 are the shrewdest of penny pinchers, most people are not going to make a 454 00:37:40.760 --> 00:37:45.280 difficult left turn across four lanes of traffic to save a couple of pennies a 455 00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:49.559 gallon on gas. They're just going to go to the station that is kind 456 00:37:49.559 --> 00:37:53.480 of directly in their path or convenient. So what each of these stations is 457 00:37:53.480 --> 00:37:57.880 going to see when they rack up their sales at the end of the month, 458 00:37:58.079 --> 00:38:01.480 is the guy who was a couple of sents cheaper on diesel is probably 459 00:38:01.480 --> 00:38:06.840 going to sell a little bit more diesel than the other stations, but not 460 00:38:06.880 --> 00:38:09.280 too much more. They're going to have a pretty even mix, just because 461 00:38:09.280 --> 00:38:15.480 people are going to go for whatever is convenient. Now, suppose the city 462 00:38:15.519 --> 00:38:22.079 comes in and the city builds a network in this intersection of tunnels and ramps 463 00:38:22.480 --> 00:38:29.760 that makes it easier for anybody traveling on any road in any direction to reach 464 00:38:30.119 --> 00:38:34.079 any of those four gas stations. So you're no longer making a tough left 465 00:38:34.079 --> 00:38:37.239 across four lanes. There is a tunnel that will get you right to wherever 466 00:38:37.679 --> 00:38:43.519 you want to go. So what's going to happen now? Now the costs 467 00:38:43.599 --> 00:38:47.199 of shopping has come way way down, and on what you would find now 468 00:38:47.320 --> 00:38:52.920 is the guy who is a couple of cents cheaper on diesel, is going 469 00:38:52.960 --> 00:38:58.920 to sell almost exclusively diesel because the guy who wants premium is going to go 470 00:38:59.039 --> 00:39:01.639 to the station. That's a couple a sense cheaper on premium because it costs 471 00:39:01.679 --> 00:39:08.440 almost nothing and the inconvenience is much much less of shopping around. These tunnels 472 00:39:08.480 --> 00:39:14.960 and ramps are your don best, your unabated, your bet stamp, your 473 00:39:15.000 --> 00:39:20.400 spank odds. They're different products. They're aimed at slightly different audiences, I 474 00:39:20.400 --> 00:39:23.199 would say, but they do essentially the same thing, which is they will 475 00:39:23.239 --> 00:39:28.519 tell you for any given game, for any given bet, they will put 476 00:39:28.559 --> 00:39:32.079 all the different books odds in front of you at the same time on one 477 00:39:32.199 --> 00:39:36.679 screen. Whereas before, if you wanted to shop for the best lines, 478 00:39:36.960 --> 00:39:40.400 you would have to open up twenty different windows, log into twenty different books. 479 00:39:40.800 --> 00:39:45.599 And you know, there were some really shrewd penny pinters who I'm sure 480 00:39:45.760 --> 00:39:51.199 did that, but the majority did not. This makes it much much easier. 481 00:39:51.719 --> 00:39:53.760 So what you're going to get going back to the gas station and own 482 00:39:54.159 --> 00:40:00.679 the diesel guy is going to sell almost exclusively diesel, which is not that 483 00:40:00.760 --> 00:40:07.039 much of a problem for him, because yeah, maybe he has misinterpreted or 484 00:40:07.480 --> 00:40:13.199 not evaluated the competition all that well, but he's not an idiot. He's 485 00:40:13.199 --> 00:40:17.480 not going to price his diesel at less than what it costs him from this 486 00:40:17.559 --> 00:40:21.880 wholesale or to acquire it. So he's not going to lose money even if 487 00:40:21.880 --> 00:40:25.599 he's priced a little bit cheaper than the competition. Now, imagine for a 488 00:40:25.639 --> 00:40:32.400 second that the guy buying his dealer from the wholesaler didn't know in advance what 489 00:40:32.480 --> 00:40:37.000 his wholesale price was going. He found out at the end of the month. 490 00:40:37.239 --> 00:40:38.920 Okay, here's what you owe me for all the diesel you bought from 491 00:40:38.960 --> 00:40:43.199 me in the last month. What he would have to do is he would 492 00:40:43.199 --> 00:40:49.400 have to guess what his wholesale price and then mark it up. And with 493 00:40:49.559 --> 00:40:53.880 that, now you introduce the possibility that the diesel guy is going to be 494 00:40:54.000 --> 00:41:01.719 cheapest on diesel because he misestimated his costs. And that is more similar to 495 00:41:01.760 --> 00:41:06.400 what you see in the insurance industry, and it is more similar to what 496 00:41:06.559 --> 00:41:13.519 the betting industry, in my opinion, could become if these odd screens become 497 00:41:14.480 --> 00:41:20.559 adopted in more of a widespread way. If you look at the travel industry, 498 00:41:21.760 --> 00:41:24.039 it's almost second nature these days. If you want to book a flight 499 00:41:24.119 --> 00:41:30.199 somewhere. You go to an Expedia or a travelossit or one of these aggregators, 500 00:41:30.199 --> 00:41:32.239 and you type in where you want and it will search all the airlines 501 00:41:32.280 --> 00:41:37.039 and find you the best deals. It wasn't always this way. It's second 502 00:41:37.119 --> 00:41:42.800 nature now, and I think that is what could potentially happen with these odd 503 00:41:42.840 --> 00:41:49.199 screens if they become the Expedia of sports betting and it just becomes second nature 504 00:41:49.840 --> 00:41:57.000 for a large share of the betting population to use these odd screens. What 505 00:41:57.039 --> 00:42:00.440 you're going to happen is what's going to happen is that books are going to 506 00:42:00.480 --> 00:42:07.119 disproportionately write action where they are the best price in the market, and so 507 00:42:07.199 --> 00:42:10.360 that's going to push the holes way down. It may not necessarily push them 508 00:42:10.440 --> 00:42:14.920 to negative or to zero, but you don't have to. You know, 509 00:42:14.960 --> 00:42:17.280 you look at these companies that are that are coming out with financial results these 510 00:42:17.360 --> 00:42:22.480 days. They're holding seven to eight percent and they're still losing money because their 511 00:42:22.519 --> 00:42:30.880 expense load is so high between systems and marketing and banking expenses. Like so, 512 00:42:30.880 --> 00:42:32.800 so what does the fear that some of them go out of business? 513 00:42:32.960 --> 00:42:37.199 Or I mean, yeah, so what could happen? So what could happen 514 00:42:37.679 --> 00:42:40.400 is the gas stations could start to collude and they could start to all charge 515 00:42:40.440 --> 00:42:44.719 the same price and all move at the same time in the same way. 516 00:42:45.039 --> 00:42:49.280 That's one thing that could happen is that every book would find a way to 517 00:42:49.360 --> 00:42:54.559 move pretty much in lockstep to avoid this adverse selection problem. Another thing that 518 00:42:54.639 --> 00:43:00.280 could happen is the industry could consolidate. Where of the thirty books in the 519 00:43:00.320 --> 00:43:04.880 industry, you know, you may have two or three left by the time 520 00:43:05.280 --> 00:43:09.400 some of them either go out of business or get merged or bought by some 521 00:43:09.480 --> 00:43:15.320 of the larger players. That's one possibility, and another possibility, really is 522 00:43:15.320 --> 00:43:21.000 the whole industry could just implode. If yeah, you say, you say 523 00:43:21.079 --> 00:43:24.639 no, but I think right now we're very early in this odd screen adoption. 524 00:43:25.320 --> 00:43:30.840 You you have some very very good products out there from betsdamp, from 525 00:43:30.880 --> 00:43:37.400 spank odds, from unabated, but they have not yet caught on in a 526 00:43:37.480 --> 00:43:43.000 way that it's really disrupting the industry all that much. We've gone from making 527 00:43:43.079 --> 00:43:45.119 up numbers here, but let's say used to be one percent, now two 528 00:43:45.159 --> 00:43:51.599 percent will will actively shot for lines. What happens if that number ever becomes 529 00:43:51.599 --> 00:43:55.599 fifty percent or seventy percent. I think the industry will look a lot different 530 00:43:55.800 --> 00:44:00.840 from what it looks like today. Adverse selection. And I've lived through this, 531 00:44:00.360 --> 00:44:04.639 um as someone who works in the insurance industry, where the economics are 532 00:44:04.679 --> 00:44:10.719 fairly similar. Adverse selection is no joke. And UM, the the lower 533 00:44:12.000 --> 00:44:15.400 you make those barriers to shopping, the easier you make it for customers, 534 00:44:16.000 --> 00:44:22.079 uh to to to find the best lines. Uh. And I'm not saying 535 00:44:22.119 --> 00:44:25.239 this is one hundred percent definitive, definitively what could happen, but I think 536 00:44:25.280 --> 00:44:32.280 it's a very real possibility that these holds that sports books are carrying are going 537 00:44:32.320 --> 00:44:37.440 to start to inch lower or and lower as line shopping starts to take more 538 00:44:37.480 --> 00:44:42.039 effect. And so the one thing that could happen, books could double down 539 00:44:42.039 --> 00:44:44.679 on their marketing to say, hey, you know, don't shop for the 540 00:44:44.719 --> 00:44:46.880 best lines, come to come to my book because my book has the best 541 00:44:46.880 --> 00:44:52.119 service and the best promotions and you know, the easiest user experience and blah 542 00:44:52.119 --> 00:44:57.920 blah blah, to to to discourage that behavior. And they might try that. 543 00:44:58.119 --> 00:45:00.400 It might work, it might not. UM, but I think that 544 00:45:00.400 --> 00:45:07.239 that people who assume that the sports betting industry in ten years will look like 545 00:45:07.320 --> 00:45:10.599 it looks now. I think there's a very real possibility that it will not. 546 00:45:12.400 --> 00:45:14.800 I think it could change. I mean, I have a couple of 547 00:45:14.840 --> 00:45:20.000 thoughts. One, I think people are basically lazy, and I can't you 548 00:45:20.039 --> 00:45:25.199 know, I've heard several people say things like, oh, you know it's 549 00:45:25.360 --> 00:45:31.639 it's it's plus one forty somewhere else, but it's only plus one twenty at 550 00:45:31.639 --> 00:45:35.639 this place. But that's where I have my money on deposits. So I'm 551 00:45:35.639 --> 00:45:39.920 just gonna bet it anyway, you know, because they don't have money in 552 00:45:39.960 --> 00:45:47.440 all the different accounts. Yeah, and the customer service thing I can get. 553 00:45:47.719 --> 00:45:52.280 I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I was playing backham And 554 00:45:52.320 --> 00:45:55.079 with a guy and he told me he was a bookie, and I was 555 00:45:55.159 --> 00:46:00.079 like, how can you be a bookie in Vegas? Like anybody can just 556 00:46:00.280 --> 00:46:05.639 walk into a sports book and make the bets, and he goes, yeah, 557 00:46:05.679 --> 00:46:08.119 but they can't call the sports book and Sunday morning in their underwear and 558 00:46:08.199 --> 00:46:12.400 make the bets. And I was like, oh, yeah, I guess 559 00:46:12.199 --> 00:46:16.960 that makes sense. So if you're providing service that the other books don't, 560 00:46:17.000 --> 00:46:21.719 maybe you get more of a market here. But you know, when you're 561 00:46:21.760 --> 00:46:27.480 dealing with a vice like gambling. I just can't see it imploding, although 562 00:46:27.599 --> 00:46:32.760 I can see it if if people become educated about it, I can see 563 00:46:32.760 --> 00:46:42.079 it shifting to a you know, rather than a bookmaker model, shifting to 564 00:46:42.280 --> 00:46:47.360 a you know, like a betfair or or a paramutual model. Or a 565 00:46:47.400 --> 00:46:52.639 paramutual model, yeah, which is something that I've thought about a lot over 566 00:46:52.719 --> 00:46:55.880 the years. And the good thing about a paramutual model is that it's got 567 00:46:55.880 --> 00:47:01.199 this built in immunity to adverse select because all the players are playing against each 568 00:47:01.239 --> 00:47:05.800 other and the house just takes a rake. So if you think about what 569 00:47:05.840 --> 00:47:10.000 happened back in the poker boom, it started out where all most of the 570 00:47:10.000 --> 00:47:15.840 players were fairly inexperienced, uneducated, didn't know what they were doing. They 571 00:47:15.880 --> 00:47:19.599 wanted to play the game they were seeing on TV, and they just were 572 00:47:19.639 --> 00:47:22.480 not very good at it. And the people who were really good at poker 573 00:47:23.400 --> 00:47:29.519 made a lot of money. And then eventually the average of the player pool 574 00:47:29.599 --> 00:47:34.480 got sharper and sharper and sharper, partially because the worst players ran out of 575 00:47:34.519 --> 00:47:38.199 money and quit, and partially because some of the bad players got themselves educated, 576 00:47:38.239 --> 00:47:43.360 read books and became better at the game. So the average skill level 577 00:47:43.440 --> 00:47:46.639 of the pool for those two reads is improving and improving and improving over time. 578 00:47:47.199 --> 00:47:52.039 The poker sites didn't really care because they got their rake either way, 579 00:47:52.840 --> 00:47:55.199 but the players then had to sort of rise to the level of the competition 580 00:47:55.639 --> 00:48:01.119 to continue playing poker as a sustainable source of income. And that's about when 581 00:48:01.119 --> 00:48:06.679 I stopped, because I was good, but I wasn't good enough to continue 582 00:48:06.719 --> 00:48:10.599 winning. Once, you know, the Americans all got banned and the player 583 00:48:10.639 --> 00:48:15.159 pool just sharpened up quite a bit. And that's sort of when I pivoted 584 00:48:15.239 --> 00:48:19.000 to just the sports betting. And so I agree with you, Richard, 585 00:48:19.000 --> 00:48:22.119 because when you say this is a vice and the industry is not going to 586 00:48:22.159 --> 00:48:28.519 go away, I think you're absolutely right. The biggest difference between other gambling 587 00:48:28.559 --> 00:48:32.559 games and sports betting is when you run a casino, the odds are in 588 00:48:32.559 --> 00:48:37.480 your favor. The odds are always going to be you know, the odds 589 00:48:37.519 --> 00:48:40.760 of the rules of craps are are known, they are well defined, you 590 00:48:40.760 --> 00:48:44.679 know, unless you start, you know, doing some some funny things, 591 00:48:44.679 --> 00:48:47.199 but in the in the majority of cases, you kind of know what you're 592 00:48:47.239 --> 00:48:52.400 getting into. When you run a craps game, or a blackjack game, 593 00:48:52.599 --> 00:48:57.079 or a roulette game. When you are running a sports book, the economics 594 00:48:57.119 --> 00:49:00.920 of that are so so different. There is no way to guarantee that you 595 00:49:01.000 --> 00:49:07.440 have the odds in your favor like you can when you're running a roulette table, 596 00:49:07.480 --> 00:49:14.920 because you have to offer every side of every market, of every game 597 00:49:15.400 --> 00:49:20.639 of every day. And meanwhile, you have a community, a world of 598 00:49:20.719 --> 00:49:23.440 betters who are just waiting for you to make a mistake or to be five 599 00:49:23.440 --> 00:49:29.280 minutes slow on a line move because you know, Lebron James just announced he's 600 00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:34.320 out with an injury. The information is always emerging from the universe, and 601 00:49:34.360 --> 00:49:38.599 it is impossible to be on top of all of it to the millisecond. 602 00:49:39.000 --> 00:49:45.320 So you, as a sportsbook operator, are not able to run your business 603 00:49:45.679 --> 00:49:50.119 with the certainty that you have an edge that you would have when you're running 604 00:49:50.480 --> 00:49:57.519 a casino. And that I think is something that is not paid enough attention 605 00:49:57.599 --> 00:50:01.679 to by the industry because they're all doing right now. Because again I'm going 606 00:50:01.719 --> 00:50:06.679 to make this number up, two percent of the population is line shopping. 607 00:50:07.280 --> 00:50:10.039 What's going to happen when that number gets larger. If that number gets larger, 608 00:50:10.079 --> 00:50:13.760 I don't know if it will, but I do know that if it 609 00:50:13.800 --> 00:50:17.559 does, and there are at least three or four companies out there who are 610 00:50:17.599 --> 00:50:22.440 trying to make it happen because they have really good products and they just have 611 00:50:22.480 --> 00:50:25.440 to market them. You know, the guy who was taking plus one twenty 612 00:50:25.800 --> 00:50:30.800 because he's too lazy to take plus one forty. One day, he might 613 00:50:30.800 --> 00:50:32.679 have an epiphany. One day, he might realize, and it may be 614 00:50:32.719 --> 00:50:38.280 as simple as just the odd screen speaking to him or her in a way 615 00:50:38.519 --> 00:50:43.960 that resonates with him or her. Hey, you know, you you lost 616 00:50:43.960 --> 00:50:46.400 a thousand dollars betting last month. Based on your results, you could have 617 00:50:46.440 --> 00:50:51.320 won two thousand if you had made the exact same bets you made but been 618 00:50:51.480 --> 00:50:54.800 more choosy about where you made them. Well, that resonates with me as 619 00:50:54.800 --> 00:50:59.280 an amateur. Better you know, who would like to win instead of loose, 620 00:50:59.360 --> 00:51:02.119 or who wouldn't like to lose less instead of lose more. I think 621 00:51:02.159 --> 00:51:07.840 the hook is sort of yet to be discovered in terms of what is that 622 00:51:07.920 --> 00:51:14.239 one turning point that really pushes up the adoption of these odd screens. But 623 00:51:15.039 --> 00:51:16.840 I think it's going to happen at some point sooner or later. There are 624 00:51:16.840 --> 00:51:22.880 just too many good products out there, too many smart people behind them, 625 00:51:22.440 --> 00:51:30.159 and the population of sports betters. They're not getting dumber over time, They're 626 00:51:30.199 --> 00:51:32.760 getting smarter over to. You still have a bunch of squares. You're always 627 00:51:32.800 --> 00:51:37.800 going to have a bunch of squares. But I can foresee a period of 628 00:51:37.840 --> 00:51:40.360 time in the future. Just like poker. People are still playing poker today, 629 00:51:42.440 --> 00:51:46.679 but there are not as many people playing poker as prominently as there were 630 00:51:46.719 --> 00:51:51.000 in When was the height of the poker boom? I'm too old, two 631 00:51:51.000 --> 00:51:54.400 thousand and three. It started in two and start three was Chris Moneymaker, 632 00:51:54.519 --> 00:52:00.639 right, And for five or so years poker was everywhere, and I think 633 00:52:00.719 --> 00:52:07.920 right now sports betting is everywhere. Like even in my home country of Canada, 634 00:52:08.079 --> 00:52:13.800 there is a Saturday night hockey game every every week. It's called Hockey 635 00:52:13.880 --> 00:52:17.840 Night in Canada, and it is a national institution in kind of a similar 636 00:52:17.840 --> 00:52:24.760 way that Monday Night Football is in America, and the first intermission of Hockey 637 00:52:24.840 --> 00:52:32.320 Night in Canada is one of the biggest prestige TV spots in Canadian sports media. 638 00:52:32.480 --> 00:52:36.480 I don't know if you know a guy named Don Cherry. He was 639 00:52:36.519 --> 00:52:40.960 a big Canadian kind of loudmouth pundit and he used to have that first intermission 640 00:52:42.039 --> 00:52:46.320 slot until he got fired for making some racist comments a couple of years ago. 641 00:52:46.400 --> 00:52:52.400 But for anyway, this is the prestige TV spot for Canadian sports media. 642 00:52:52.480 --> 00:52:59.320 And last year my friend Annie Andy McNeil is digital gambler on Twitter and 643 00:52:59.559 --> 00:53:04.079 they actually they put him on Hockey Night in Canada in that first intermission spot 644 00:53:04.480 --> 00:53:12.519 talking about the betting lines. And this was just like a crazy amount of 645 00:53:13.639 --> 00:53:17.920 emphasis and prestige to put on this, and it made sense because ever since 646 00:53:17.960 --> 00:53:22.599 April, at least in Ontario, ever since April of twenty twenty two, 647 00:53:22.960 --> 00:53:29.320 sports betting has been everywhere. But I can foresee a point in time where 648 00:53:29.360 --> 00:53:31.360 that may no longer be the case. People are going to bet sports forever, 649 00:53:32.159 --> 00:53:37.320 but there might be a time where the sort of sexiness level of sports 650 00:53:37.320 --> 00:53:44.119 betting drops, like the sexiness level of poker has dropped in the last decade 651 00:53:44.199 --> 00:53:47.400 or so. And when that happens again, that will be a catalyst for 652 00:53:49.360 --> 00:53:52.000 some of the less sharp betters to drop out of the market. The sharp 653 00:53:52.039 --> 00:53:55.639 betters are not going anywhere because the source of income for them, But again, 654 00:53:55.760 --> 00:54:02.480 what happens when the average level of the population increases in poker, it 655 00:54:02.639 --> 00:54:07.800 just made it harder for all the players in sports betting. That pain is 656 00:54:07.840 --> 00:54:12.320 going to go to the operators unless there are some big changes made it. 657 00:54:12.719 --> 00:54:17.679 I just want to make mention one thing before we get to recommendations. They 658 00:54:17.800 --> 00:54:22.320 did try paramutual sports betting in Las Vegas. I think it was in the 659 00:54:22.360 --> 00:54:30.519 eighties and it is legal here, but they tried it and they just couldn't 660 00:54:30.559 --> 00:54:34.920 get it to catch on. They just couldn't get people to bet into it. 661 00:54:35.159 --> 00:54:37.639 It would have to be marketed in a very specific way to sort of 662 00:54:37.719 --> 00:54:45.320 highlight the differences between traditional sports betting and this paramutualism. The biggest downside would 663 00:54:45.320 --> 00:54:49.119 be that you, as a better wouldn't know the odds you're getting until after 664 00:54:49.199 --> 00:54:52.320 the game has started, sort of like it is in horse racing today. 665 00:54:52.360 --> 00:54:57.719 And I think that would be a challenge to educate betters on kind of why 666 00:54:57.840 --> 00:55:00.079 that's not the end of the world. If you bet some thing at plus 667 00:55:00.119 --> 00:55:05.920 one sixty and it's plus one forty by the time tip off happens, that 668 00:55:05.920 --> 00:55:10.800 would be a challenge. I don't think it is insurmountable, and I think 669 00:55:10.800 --> 00:55:14.000 it may have just been ahead of its time a little bit, as much 670 00:55:14.039 --> 00:55:16.199 as you can say about something it's been around for one hundred and fifty years. 671 00:55:17.719 --> 00:55:22.639 I think it's time will come. Twenty twenty three may not be the 672 00:55:22.719 --> 00:55:28.440 right time, but I think that if and when all of these challenges to 673 00:55:28.519 --> 00:55:32.920 the that I'm talking about ever come to pass, I think that would be 674 00:55:34.480 --> 00:55:42.400 one of possible directions the industry could go to get away from this what what 675 00:55:42.960 --> 00:55:47.599 I think is an existential threat of adverse selection. We're not there yet. 676 00:55:49.320 --> 00:55:52.519 One day we might be. If our listeners wanted to get a hold of 677 00:55:52.559 --> 00:55:54.480 you, what would be the best way to do that? Best way it 678 00:55:54.480 --> 00:56:01.119 would be on Twitter at plus ev analytics all one word, plus ev analytics. 679 00:56:01.760 --> 00:56:04.800 As you all know by now, at the end of the show, 680 00:56:04.840 --> 00:56:09.159 we have a recommended section, and Bob's Internet has cut out, so I'm 681 00:56:09.199 --> 00:56:15.079 going to go right into my recommended I'm watching a really, really great show 682 00:56:15.159 --> 00:56:20.440 right now. I a few weeks back or months ago, I recommended a 683 00:56:20.519 --> 00:56:24.280 show, an Israeli show called Hit and Run, and somebody wrote to me 684 00:56:24.320 --> 00:56:29.960 and said, you know, the same actor is in this show called Fouda 685 00:56:30.320 --> 00:56:40.760 fau Da. It's an Israeli show about a special operations group and same actor 686 00:56:40.840 --> 00:56:45.000 that's in Hit and Run. It is. They have four seasons. It 687 00:56:45.199 --> 00:56:52.880 is really really well done, very suspenseful, really really good show. And 688 00:56:52.960 --> 00:56:54.679 how about you, Matt, you have something to recommend for us this week? 689 00:56:55.519 --> 00:56:59.880 I do, and I apologize for committing a little bit of padult, 690 00:57:00.400 --> 00:57:04.320 although Richard's actually in this one, so maybe it's only a half pudultery. 691 00:57:04.440 --> 00:57:10.320 But Risk of Ruin is a fantastic podcast and they do episodes not only on 692 00:57:10.480 --> 00:57:17.239 betting but the stock market. They've done a couple and anything involving risk And 693 00:57:17.679 --> 00:57:22.840 there was an episode last week actually about dice control in craps, which is 694 00:57:23.039 --> 00:57:28.199 a subject that I now know a lot more about than I ever thought I 695 00:57:28.239 --> 00:57:34.239 would. It's a fascinating story, a lot of really kind of mechanical engineering 696 00:57:34.280 --> 00:57:38.159 type stuff. The guys actually built a robot, dice throwing robot see if 697 00:57:38.199 --> 00:57:44.519 they could reproduce the perfect role. And like I said, Richard is in 698 00:57:44.559 --> 00:57:47.639 it, as well as a couple of other people who are involved in that 699 00:57:47.719 --> 00:57:52.920 story. And I highly recommend all of his podcasts at Risk of Ruin, 700 00:57:52.519 --> 00:57:59.079 but especially the most recent believe it's called rabbit Hole and it's about advantage play 701 00:57:59.199 --> 00:58:04.000 in craps. Yeah, it's an excellent, excellent episode, really good. 702 00:58:04.599 --> 00:58:07.920 Okay, well that's it for our show this week. Go out and hit 703 00:58:07.039 --> 00:58:09.440 lots of royal flushes. Everybody. Good day,