1 00:00:08,519 --> 00:00:13,080 Good afternoon. You're listening to Gambling with an Edge. Now here are your 2 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:18,559 host, Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin. Good afternoon, Welcome to Gambling with 3 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:22,559 an Edge, John, Bob Dancer, and I'm Richard Munchkin. Today our 4 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:29,679 guest is a repeat visit from Matt at plus EV Analytics. Matt, welcome 5 00:00:29,719 --> 00:00:32,679 back to our show. Thank you so much. Great to be here. 6 00:00:32,719 --> 00:00:37,320 I think this is my third time on this show and I love chatting with 7 00:00:37,359 --> 00:00:41,359 you guys every opportunity I get, so thanks for having me again. Well, 8 00:00:41,399 --> 00:00:46,399 I like your chances of being fourth and fifth. So all right, 9 00:00:46,679 --> 00:00:53,640 let's start off with the Caesar's lawsuit you were involved. What happened? All 10 00:00:53,759 --> 00:00:57,799 right? Yes, I'm currently involved in a little bit of small claims court 11 00:00:58,439 --> 00:01:03,040 litigation against see sports book. So what happened was I bet a lot of 12 00:01:03,599 --> 00:01:08,799 National Football League regular season win totals. It's something I've been working on for 13 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:14,760 a few years. It's a pretty reliable advantage that I've been able to get 14 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,239 for myself, and I've bet I think over a hundred of them in this 15 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,079 most recent season. So what I like to do as the season goes on 16 00:01:23,359 --> 00:01:29,200 is sort of grade my bets in progress after every week of the NFL season, 17 00:01:29,239 --> 00:01:32,040 just to see how I'm doing. Am I tracking to win, tracking 18 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:36,359 to lose, tracking to break even. So I had a pretty good idea 19 00:01:36,439 --> 00:01:45,040 of where I stood when that infamous game between Buffalo and Cincinnati was postponed on 20 00:01:45,079 --> 00:01:53,400 the field and then canceled after that horrible cardiac event that themar Hamlin had. 21 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,280 So as soon as they called the game off, I'm going to look at 22 00:01:57,319 --> 00:02:00,159 my stats, and I'm thinking, okay, well, every bet I have 23 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:05,200 says must play seventeen games for action. I've got a bunch of bets on 24 00:02:05,239 --> 00:02:08,680 Buffalo. I've got a bunch of bets on Cincinnati. Some of them were 25 00:02:08,719 --> 00:02:12,919 still live at this point. This was near the end of the season, 26 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,080 so some of those bets were live, some of them were not. I 27 00:02:16,159 --> 00:02:22,000 had one bet that was about a fifty fifty chance of paying out at odds 28 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,879 of plus four thousand, so I was in pretty good shape on one of 29 00:02:24,879 --> 00:02:29,639 the bets, and the other ones were not alive at that point. So 30 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,120 I figured it all out. I assumed, Okay, if they don't reschedule 31 00:02:32,159 --> 00:02:38,199 this game, all my bets on Buffalo and Cincinnati are going to get voided. 32 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:40,199 Some of my losing bets are going to get voided, some of my 33 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:44,599 bets that are very much live are going to get voided. Overall, I'm 34 00:02:44,599 --> 00:02:50,919 going to end up a little bit down on the event, but not catastrophic. 35 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:55,840 Life goes on. So the rest of the season finishes off. The 36 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:01,280 day after the final game of the nflular season, Caesars, who I had 37 00:03:01,319 --> 00:03:05,599 a lot of these bets with, graded all the bets that I had, 38 00:03:05,759 --> 00:03:08,840 except for the ones on Buffalo and Cincinnati. I guess they were trying to 39 00:03:08,879 --> 00:03:14,360 figure out what to do about the fact that they did not play a game 40 00:03:14,439 --> 00:03:19,599 schedule. A couple of days later, I was surprised to find that the 41 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:24,120 one bet that was live was graded a void and the multiple bets that were 42 00:03:24,199 --> 00:03:32,879 no longer live at that point were graded losses. And this is straight contradiction 43 00:03:34,319 --> 00:03:37,680 to number one what it says right on the bet slip, but just must 44 00:03:37,719 --> 00:03:40,439 play seventeen games for action. And then if you go into read their their 45 00:03:40,479 --> 00:03:46,080 house rules, it also sets for NFL regular sea game that's all games must 46 00:03:46,199 --> 00:03:51,479 All teams must play their full scheduled games for action. Like pretty pretty clear 47 00:03:51,520 --> 00:03:55,360 cut, right, Yeah, I just have to laugh. Because this just 48 00:03:55,400 --> 00:04:00,319 doesn't surprise me at all that they're you know, winners are void and the 49 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:05,240 losers will keep thank you very much. My first inclination was this is this 50 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,919 is crazy. You know, they're they're free rolling their customers, and this 51 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:14,479 is outrageous. UM. I later heard from some other people who had bets 52 00:04:15,039 --> 00:04:21,399 that were UM guaranteed winners that Caesars actually did pay out, so I can't 53 00:04:21,439 --> 00:04:27,000 accuse them of free rolling because it seems like I didn't have any bets that 54 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:31,040 that qualified to be paid out because they would have won regardless of the outcome 55 00:04:31,079 --> 00:04:35,240 of this missing game. I only had some bets that lost and some bets 56 00:04:35,319 --> 00:04:44,399 that were unsettled, so I wasn't personally I didn't get any winners, but 57 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:47,240 I heard of some others who did, UM, so it wasn't a complete 58 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:54,800 free roll situation. But that still doesn't excuse them violating their own house rules. 59 00:04:55,639 --> 00:05:00,079 So I complained to them, and they gave me the usual line of 60 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,399 this is the decision our traders made and we're sticking with it. And you 61 00:05:04,399 --> 00:05:08,720 know, I tried to tell them that that you know, your traders don't 62 00:05:08,759 --> 00:05:13,759 have the authority to violate the terms and conditions of your contract, and they 63 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,879 really wanted nothing to do with it, and they said too bad. So 64 00:05:18,199 --> 00:05:26,920 my next point of contact was the gaming regulator in my home province of Ontario, 65 00:05:27,399 --> 00:05:30,720 and I'm thinking, for sure, these guys are going to get involved 66 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,879 and they are going to decide with me. I'm going to get my money 67 00:05:34,879 --> 00:05:40,720 back. Everyone else in the same situation, at least those in Ontario are 68 00:05:40,759 --> 00:05:43,160 going to be able to get their money back, and we're going to be 69 00:05:43,199 --> 00:05:46,800 able to put this whole thing behind us. So the Gaming Commission took a 70 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:51,160 couple of weeks and they told me they were in contact with Caesars to get 71 00:05:51,199 --> 00:05:58,000 their side of the story, and they made their decision and they sided with 72 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,560 Caesars. And I'm thinking, there's no way this can possibly be true, 73 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:06,720 Like, am I missing something? So I asked them, well, what 74 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:11,120 was the reason for their decision, and they said, we're not going to 75 00:06:11,199 --> 00:06:14,000 tell you that. You have to go back to Caesar's and ask them. 76 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:19,360 So I did, and the reason I got from Caesar's was there is a 77 00:06:19,439 --> 00:06:26,519 rule in the general Terms and Conditions section of their house rules. It's called 78 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,600 the Infamous Rule three. And what it says that is that for all markets. 79 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:36,160 For all football markets, fifty five minutes of game action must be played 80 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:42,800 for the bets to have action. Is sentenced one sentence two of that rule 81 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:48,120 is if a game is postponed, it must be rescheduled within seven days, 82 00:06:48,399 --> 00:06:54,639 otherwise all bets are void. So a couple issues with this, and this 83 00:06:54,680 --> 00:07:00,480 is the grounds for my lawsuit in Small Claims Court Number one. It is 84 00:07:00,759 --> 00:07:06,000 very clearly obvious that this fifty five minute rule is intended to apply to single 85 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:12,120 game bets and not you have to play fifty five minutes of the season for 86 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,319 bets to have action, because that is just an absurd reading of that rule. 87 00:07:17,079 --> 00:07:23,319 My problem number two is that there is a contradiction between this general rule 88 00:07:23,439 --> 00:07:29,079 and the more specific rule both on the bet slip and in the NFL regular 89 00:07:29,079 --> 00:07:33,079 Season Wins section that says must play seventeen games for action. And it's a 90 00:07:33,199 --> 00:07:38,600 very well known principle of law, both in Canada and in the US that 91 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:44,199 whenever there's a contradiction between a more general rule and a more specific rule, 92 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:49,720 the more specific rule takes priority. So Caesars did not abide by that. 93 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:56,120 And then my third justification is the second sentence in the infamous. Three. 94 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:00,480 It says if a game is postponed, which it was, it must be 95 00:08:00,519 --> 00:08:05,680 replayed within seven days, which it was not. So I've got three I 96 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:13,720 think fairly stable, fairly solid legal arguments on my side, and so I 97 00:08:13,759 --> 00:08:20,560 filed this lawsuit in Ontario small Every person I've talked to, whether they're industry 98 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:26,319 experts, regulatory experts, legal experts, the criticism I've got has been that 99 00:08:26,399 --> 00:08:30,800 it's this is not worth my time for what's basically a twenty three hundred dollars 100 00:08:31,839 --> 00:08:37,240 refund that I'm seeking. People have questioned that, but zero people I've spoken 101 00:08:37,279 --> 00:08:41,320 to have questioned me on the merits of the case. One hundred percent of 102 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:46,360 people that I have spoken to believe that I am in the right on this 103 00:08:46,399 --> 00:08:50,720 case. Well, the other thing that I think is kind of brilliant is 104 00:08:50,759 --> 00:08:54,720 to use small claims court where they can't, you know, paper you to 105 00:08:54,799 --> 00:09:00,240 death and lawyer you to death, where it definitely would not be worth the 106 00:09:00,279 --> 00:09:03,559 amount of money you would have to spend to actually bring the case. But 107 00:09:03,759 --> 00:09:09,080 in small claims court, they're basically there are no lawyers right right, no 108 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,480 lawyers that the filing fees. I think one hundred and three dollars or something 109 00:09:11,519 --> 00:09:16,799 so pretty small. Yeah, going going to regular court would not have been 110 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,320 an option for me because it would have been you know, the legal fees 111 00:09:20,399 --> 00:09:22,759 for my own case would have been higher than what I could have recovered. 112 00:09:24,399 --> 00:09:28,600 My only two real options were a small claims court and a class action, 113 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:35,080 And while a class action would have been fun, I think it probably would 114 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,240 have been a little bit too much of a drain on my time, um 115 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:43,399 for for what I had to gain. Now. One of the reasons I 116 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:50,039 am making this pursuit as public as I am as that I know that I 117 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:54,879 am not the only person who has had bets incorrectly graded as a result of 118 00:09:54,879 --> 00:10:01,399 this, and I would like everyone to be able to to get what they 119 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,759 are owed, not just me. So I'm hoping to set a precedent. 120 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:09,120 And I've said publicly that if Caesar's lawyers were to call me tomorrow and say, 121 00:10:09,159 --> 00:10:11,879 hey, I'll give you your twenty three hundred bucks, but you have 122 00:10:11,919 --> 00:10:16,399 to sign a confidentiality agreement and never speak of this again, my answer would 123 00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:22,039 be no. I am coming not only for myself, but as a representative 124 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:30,519 of the community that has to deal with so many legal shenanigans. In terms 125 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:37,240 of limiting sharps and unfair marketing practices with risk free bets and all these things. 126 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,200 They're legally allowed to do all those things, so I can't stop them. 127 00:10:41,399 --> 00:10:45,080 The least I can do on behalf of my community is stop them from 128 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:50,919 doing something that is illegal. Yeah. I've almost thought that if I were 129 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:58,240 to ever be involved in a lawsuit, and you know, maybe my attitude 130 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:03,840 would change if I've actually gone through it, but my attitude would be uh, 131 00:11:03,879 --> 00:11:09,120 the confidentiality agreement would be a deal breaker, like, you know, 132 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:15,440 because yeah, I would want a public what what they do to people? 133 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:20,879 Um, yeah, so definitely. And you know, as as someone who 134 00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:22,759 has a little bit of a voice in the space, you know, the 135 00:11:24,039 --> 00:11:26,919 money itself is not all that consequential to me. It's it's it's a decent 136 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:31,360 amount of money and I don't want to lose it. But that's not the 137 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,320 main reason I'm doing this. The main reason I'm doing this is number one, 138 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:37,639 just to be able to have a good story to tell and number two 139 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:41,600 to help the community. And I hope to succeed in both of those, 140 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,440 both of those goals. Yeah, fighting the good fight, that's right. 141 00:11:46,159 --> 00:11:50,480 Well, I don't know if I ever rewards offered a quarter million dollars from 142 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,759 a casino, but I had to be quiet about it. I don't know 143 00:11:52,799 --> 00:11:56,600 how much principle i'd have at that point. I'm not sure either. But 144 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,120 it's not it's not all or nothing, right, I mean, it's not 145 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,879 zero or two fifty. The problem is that most people, I think, 146 00:12:05,879 --> 00:12:13,559 they fold way too soon and and say no, this is a deal breaker. 147 00:12:13,639 --> 00:12:16,559 The confidentiality apart and let them come back to you with a new offer. 148 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,960 Is so for example, you know, there's a horrendous case of a 149 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:28,480 well known advantage player who had the crap beat out of him between the ex 150 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:33,840 Caliber and the Luxur. I mean, I mean this was shortly after I 151 00:12:33,879 --> 00:12:39,000 think the October first thing, and you know, when they hired they started 152 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:45,799 hiring like security guards who thought they were SWAT team members in you know, 153 00:12:46,039 --> 00:12:50,360 jack boots and anyway, they beat the crap out of him. Conveniently, 154 00:12:52,039 --> 00:12:58,279 the video seemed to have disappeared, you know, and apparently there was a 155 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:05,480 settlement that was too everyone's agreement or whatever. But but there was a confidentiality 156 00:13:05,519 --> 00:13:09,159 about it, which I think is a shame because I you know, I'd 157 00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:13,639 love to see that on National Lose that casinos beat the crap out of people. 158 00:13:15,159 --> 00:13:18,840 Yeah, but well that this one isn't quite as injurious to me. 159 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:24,799 No, no, Yeah, it's a similar idea, And I can a 160 00:13:24,879 --> 00:13:28,200 little tiny bit of me can sympathize with Caesars because I think what happened was 161 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:33,639 they misunderstood their own rules and their initial decision. They actually paid out some 162 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,600 winners that they should have avoided as well, so that if they go back 163 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,679 and do the right thing now, they will end up paying the winners and 164 00:13:41,759 --> 00:13:46,279 kind of avoiding some of the bets that would have lost. But that's their 165 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:50,159 problem, like they should have read their own rules carefully before they took any 166 00:13:50,159 --> 00:13:54,519 action at all. So that that is my microscopic level of sympathy. But 167 00:13:54,679 --> 00:14:00,639 Caesar's is one of many sports books. There's MJAM, DraftKings Fan, SI 168 00:14:00,759 --> 00:14:07,399 Sports, etc. Did they take the same road that Caesar's did or did 169 00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:11,519 they handle it more honorably? I believe they handled it the right way. 170 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:16,440 Now, all of the bets in question, on my own personal account, 171 00:14:16,519 --> 00:14:22,240 happened to be at Caesar's, so I don't have firsthand experience with how this 172 00:14:22,279 --> 00:14:24,120 would have been treated at any of the other books just did. All my 173 00:14:24,159 --> 00:14:28,559 action on these teams just happened to be at Caesar's. But I don't. 174 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:37,399 I haven't heard of any other sites having graded this as incorrectly as as Caesar's 175 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:41,519 did, or the ones that did. Some books actually have a cause in 176 00:14:41,559 --> 00:14:46,519 their rules that says must play seventeen games unless the outcome has already been established. 177 00:14:46,919 --> 00:14:50,759 And if Caesar's had had that in their house rules, I wouldn't have 178 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:56,360 a case. But but they don't. All right, let's move on. 179 00:14:56,159 --> 00:15:03,039 You taught a course in base in probability an Analytics dot bet, or maybe 180 00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:07,159 you're teaching it again. Tell us about that. Yeah, so I did 181 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:11,360 teach a course. Um. The first offering of this course was about a 182 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:16,000 year ago. It was last the winter of twenty two. It was a 183 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:22,240 twelve week course. I was honored to be invited by the principles, the 184 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:28,240 owners of Analytics dot Bet, Harry Crane, Philip Myiman, who I got 185 00:15:28,279 --> 00:15:31,840 to know last year, and I've become friends with great people, really smart 186 00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:39,519 professors, and they started this this school called Analytics dot Bet, which aims 187 00:15:39,639 --> 00:15:48,519 to provide an education in sports betting that is of a university level of quality. 188 00:15:48,159 --> 00:15:52,679 And so my course is I mean, isn't more like graduate level or 189 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:58,000 um There are different tracks. So when I when I came out with my 190 00:15:58,159 --> 00:16:04,159 course, I made I made a conscious effort to make it I guess what 191 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:10,639 you would call undergraduate level. So nothing in my course required any more than 192 00:16:10,679 --> 00:16:15,120 a high school level mathematics background, because I really wanted to make this as 193 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:21,879 accessible to a wide range of potential students as I could. If if I'd 194 00:16:21,879 --> 00:16:23,799 said you need a math degree to take this course, you know, I 195 00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:29,519 doubt I would have had many takers. So I believe that's the case for 196 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:34,519 most or all of their offering. It would be kind of undergraduate or lower 197 00:16:34,879 --> 00:16:41,320 kind of level such that it's open to the widest possible number of potential students. 198 00:16:41,799 --> 00:16:47,080 So I talked this course it covers what I like to call small data. 199 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,320 Everyone talks about big data these days, big data. This big data 200 00:16:49,399 --> 00:16:53,320 that I don't specialize in big data. I specialize in small data. And 201 00:16:53,360 --> 00:17:00,159 what I mean by that is what do you do when you have information that 202 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:07,240 is of a sample size that is too large to ignore, but too small 203 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:12,119 to completely rely on. And this is something that is taught I think fairly 204 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:19,160 well in the actuarial education system, but not all that well anywhere else. 205 00:17:19,799 --> 00:17:25,480 So what I try to do is take what I've learned both in my formal 206 00:17:25,599 --> 00:17:32,279 education and in my years of practice and distill it to something that is useful 207 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,799 for practitioners in the sports betting space. And there's a big difference between teaching 208 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,359 in an academic setting and teaching in a practitioner set. So I'm not giving 209 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:47,599 any proofs of theorems. I'm not using any Greek letters, I'm not using 210 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,240 any calculus. There's a lot of things that are kind of gate keep in 211 00:17:52,279 --> 00:17:56,960 the academic world that don't really resonate a lot with me as someone who's trying 212 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:02,799 to actually use this stuff in the real world. So it was really focused 213 00:18:02,839 --> 00:18:07,200 on a real world, practical kind of of contacts. We had fifty one 214 00:18:07,279 --> 00:18:11,039 students, which is actually quite a few more than I had been expecting. 215 00:18:11,039 --> 00:18:15,960 I would have been happy with twin ended up with fifty one. The majority 216 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:21,079 of the feedback I got what was good actually had a couple of success stories 217 00:18:21,079 --> 00:18:23,079 come out of that class. So you had Amber, my friend Amber on 218 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:30,640 about a month or two. She is a graduamble class Amber Gamble. She's 219 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:37,039 great, and she came into the class with not too much of a mathematical 220 00:18:37,559 --> 00:18:41,799 or a sports betting background, and she has really made a name for herself 221 00:18:41,799 --> 00:18:48,440 in the community and also a niche for herself in the betting space. So 222 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:53,079 that's one. Another one of my former students actually got a job working with 223 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,039 Rufus Peabody, who I think you've had on here, Fumes, who was 224 00:18:56,079 --> 00:19:02,039 one of the sports betters out there. So yeah, I think so most 225 00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:07,000 of the people got what they wanted to or more out of the class in 226 00:19:07,079 --> 00:19:12,799 terms of what comes next. So the recordings of the lectures are have been 227 00:19:12,799 --> 00:19:18,200 and are still available for kind of purchase, and taking the course sort of 228 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:25,799 offline at your own pace is something that is right now at Analytics. I 229 00:19:25,839 --> 00:19:32,920 would love to do a second round of live classes if and when we get 230 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:38,440 the sort of critical mass of interest that is needed to do it. I 231 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:44,640 think Harry and his team have also had some discussions offering the coast in an 232 00:19:45,079 --> 00:19:48,559 institutional corporate setting, you know, whether you have a sports book that has 233 00:19:48,559 --> 00:19:52,880 maybe twenty employees who want to all take the class or something like that. 234 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,279 I think that we're investigating as well. So lots of lots of different things 235 00:19:56,319 --> 00:20:00,839 that we might do with that in the future without getting too far into the 236 00:20:00,839 --> 00:20:06,000 weeds. Can you give an example of the kind of small data you're talking 237 00:20:06,039 --> 00:20:11,799 about where Yeah, definitely. One of the earliest problems that we look at 238 00:20:11,839 --> 00:20:18,480 over the course of the class is NBA halftime totals. So let's say you 239 00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:22,000 have an NBA game. Pregame total is two forty, So the first half 240 00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:26,640 is now finished, and there have been one hundred points scored in the first 241 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:32,240 half. Where do you put the second half total? And the two sort 242 00:20:32,279 --> 00:20:36,799 of extreme ends of the schools of thought are. Number one would be, 243 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,960 Okay, what I learned in the first half is completely reliable. There were 244 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:45,240 one hundred points score to the first half. I'm going to extrapolate that, 245 00:20:45,559 --> 00:20:48,279 and two hundred would be my fair, you know, live total at halftime. 246 00:20:48,799 --> 00:20:52,720 The other extreme end of the spectrum is to say, okay, well, 247 00:20:52,079 --> 00:20:57,440 the hundred points that we observed in the first half has zero predictive value 248 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:03,960 at all. I'm going to revert to what's called my prior of two hundred 249 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,880 and forty points per game or one hundred and twenty point per half. I 250 00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,519 know there's a little bit of a scoring difference between the first and second half, 251 00:21:10,519 --> 00:21:14,200 but let's ignore that for the sake of example. I'm going to take 252 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,559 one hundred and twenty I expect in the second half plus one hundred I already 253 00:21:18,559 --> 00:21:23,759 observed in the first half, and two twenty would be my fair live total. 254 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:30,000 And really the world of small data lives in between that two hundred and 255 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:34,319 that two twenty, And it really depends how much weight you want to give 256 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,519 to your observation what you saw in the first half, versus how much weight 257 00:21:38,519 --> 00:21:42,880 you want to give to your prior. And one of the questions that is 258 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:47,720 important there is, okay, well you thought the pregame total was two forty. 259 00:21:48,279 --> 00:21:52,160 How sure were you of that? Were you absolutely certain two forty was 260 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,079 the right number, or was two forty the center of a range that might 261 00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:02,079 have gone from you know, one eighty up to three hundred any estimate we 262 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,759 make. And this is a cool thing about sports betting. Compared to roulette 263 00:22:04,839 --> 00:22:10,559 or blackjack or craps, all of the probabilities in sports betting have to be 264 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:17,480 estimated from data from markets, from whatever, whereas in most games in the 265 00:22:17,519 --> 00:22:22,880 casino, the probabilities are a natural consequence of the laws of physics. So 266 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:27,160 there's an extra layer of uncertainty whenever you are dealing with probabilities in a sports 267 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:32,119 betting contest. And that is what this chorus is all about, because you're 268 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:37,599 estimating probabilities based on information. Information is always changing, You're always getting new 269 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,400 information, and you have to decide, well, how much should I trust 270 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,839 my new information? How much should I trust my number before I got that 271 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,559 new information? What is signal? What is noise? And all these cool 272 00:22:49,599 --> 00:22:55,640 things that form the basis of the class what used to be called Bayesian sports 273 00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:02,519 betting and is now known as the art of sports betting, And that's Harry's 274 00:23:02,599 --> 00:23:06,400 name. Yeah, I don't mind it, because there there there is some 275 00:23:06,599 --> 00:23:11,960 art and there is some science really to this, more so than most kind 276 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,000 of probabilistic analysis that you might see in advantage betting. You know there there 277 00:23:15,039 --> 00:23:19,079 there is an art layer in terms of how you set your model up, 278 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:23,680 how you make your assumptions, because no model is perfect. Um you have 279 00:23:23,759 --> 00:23:27,240 to come up with the data, the way you're going to use the data, 280 00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:30,960 the assumptions you're going to make in a way that gives you the most 281 00:23:32,079 --> 00:23:40,880 accurate possible outcomes with the minimal level of processing work. And that's the challenge, 282 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:45,839 all right. Last year in April, there was an event in Vegas 283 00:23:45,839 --> 00:23:52,200 called bet Bash two. Uh you were there? How did that go for 284 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,720 you? I was there, Um, my expectations going in. I didn't 285 00:23:56,759 --> 00:24:00,920 really know what to expect. You know. I had been too um in 286 00:24:02,039 --> 00:24:06,480 real life gambling meet outs before, back when I played poker many many years 287 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:11,000 ago. I had been to academic conferences before. I didn't know if this 288 00:24:11,079 --> 00:24:15,440 was going to be more like one, more like the other, combination of 289 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,799 both. You know. It was really, um, the first of its 290 00:24:18,839 --> 00:24:22,799 kind other than that one day kind of bet Bash one that I wasn't able 291 00:24:22,799 --> 00:24:27,359 to attend because it was my son's birthday that day. Um. But yeah, 292 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:33,079 bet Bash two was time of my life. I just loved every minute 293 00:24:33,079 --> 00:24:37,440 of it. I had a hoarse voice by the end of it, as 294 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:41,720 I think from talking so much, from hearing so many interesting stories, um, 295 00:24:42,079 --> 00:24:47,559 from from meeting Richard. Uh. I got there. That I got 296 00:24:47,599 --> 00:24:48,759 there. I think it was one of the first events and I like, 297 00:24:48,799 --> 00:24:52,559 here, there's Richard, Richard Munchkin. Excuse me. Uh, you know, 298 00:24:52,599 --> 00:24:56,839 I'm going to go introduce myself and and you know, he was just 299 00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,119 the nicest guy, and we started talking and we became friends. And you 300 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:06,559 know, some of these people who I had only interacted with on Twitter and 301 00:25:06,599 --> 00:25:10,640 on a couple of podcasts, just meeting these people in real life was really 302 00:25:10,839 --> 00:25:15,960 it was like advantage betting fantasy camp and then getting to meet Jelco, who 303 00:25:17,079 --> 00:25:23,200 is arguably the greatest of all time in terms of advantage players. I was 304 00:25:23,319 --> 00:25:27,079 at I think the opening event talking to Rufus, and Rufus said, Hey, 305 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,160 Gelco's here, how would you like to meet him? And I said, 306 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,759 of course, I'd like to meet him. So Rufus introduces me, 307 00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:37,559 and he was just the humble, kind, nicest guy, like for somebody 308 00:25:37,599 --> 00:25:41,480 who has had the success and the wealth that he has, like you would 309 00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:45,480 never be able to tell just from talking to the guy. He was like 310 00:25:45,559 --> 00:25:51,440 the epitome of down to earth. And talk to him a couple of times 311 00:25:51,519 --> 00:25:56,359 during the course of the event, which was worth the price of admission on 312 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,519 its own, And you know, he and I still text each other occasionally. 313 00:26:00,519 --> 00:26:03,000 He texts me out of nowhere to wish me a happy New Year and 314 00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,680 like, who am I? I'm nobody And he's the greatest there ever was 315 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,599 and just to be UM in that situation and get to meet someone like that, 316 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,319 you know, as well as the other amazing people such as yourself Richard 317 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:21,960 who who were there. Uh. It is something that I would call it 318 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,279 a once in a lifetime opportunity. But it's just been announced as bet Bash 319 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:30,319 three coming up this August, and I'm planning on being there. I hope, 320 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:37,240 I hope you Richard and you Bob are are going to get to Uh. 321 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:44,759 It is going to be able to It's it's were they are. They 322 00:26:44,839 --> 00:26:47,599 talking about having it in a couple of different places. I think Costa Rica 323 00:26:47,799 --> 00:26:52,519 was was one of the that would be interesting. There's there's there's so many 324 00:26:52,799 --> 00:26:55,799 uh, there's so many offshore sites that are that are based there, so 325 00:26:55,839 --> 00:27:00,400 it would make some sense. He's just for US North Americans to get to. 326 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:03,680 UM. Yeah, I think Chicago might have been mentioned. New York 327 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,000 would have them, and I think at the end of the day, Vegas 328 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:11,400 is just the easiest to get to. Hotel prices of reasonable. The Circa 329 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,920 was a fantastic coast last year, and I believe they're opening or have opened 330 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:22,920 some new conference space in the Circa. Whereas we had to have most of 331 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,720 the conference activities down the street. It's d U last year, so I 332 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:33,480 think, well they do. They had a theater that they debuted for the 333 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,160 Super Bowl and they had the super Bowl party and it was, um, 334 00:27:37,559 --> 00:27:41,759 it would be a suitable a similar size to the d ballroom that they use 335 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:47,559 last year for Beet Besh too and okay, yeah, so I believe that 336 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:51,480 is where it is going to be. Um. I hope they have seminars 337 00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:55,079 again. And this is another thing that was just a bucket list opportunity for 338 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:59,240 me to be able to not only attend but present as part of the Analytics 339 00:27:59,279 --> 00:28:06,759 Dott seminar where you have just some of the greatest minds in gambling just kind 340 00:28:06,759 --> 00:28:10,359 of sitting there and listening to me give a presentation. It's just something. 341 00:28:10,759 --> 00:28:12,599 It's one of those things in life where you're like, all right, you 342 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,599 know, I can hang with these guys kind of I'm I'm in the big 343 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,160 leagues now, and it was it was special for me to do well. 344 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:23,119 I I really enjoyed the panel discussions too. Um you know, I mean, 345 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,519 I'm not even a sports better, but um, I just found them 346 00:28:26,519 --> 00:28:33,799 really interesting and um and entertaining, and I yeah, I thoroughly enjoyed um 347 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,759 that bash. I had a great time. I didn't know what to expect. 348 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,200 Um. You know, basically I was like, all right, well 349 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:48,640 I'm gonna go and basically troll for guests for the show. But but as 350 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:52,519 I say, yeah, yeah, but yeah, I had a I had 351 00:28:52,559 --> 00:28:56,240 a great time. It was it was a lot of fun. And uh, 352 00:28:56,279 --> 00:29:00,920 I fits in August at Circa. I will be there. It is 353 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:07,039 great. It is, I believe August eighth through the eleventh at the Circle. 354 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:11,559 You can go to betbash dot CEO, I believe is the website. 355 00:29:11,039 --> 00:29:15,079 I'm sure Spanky would come on here and uh and talk to you all about 356 00:29:15,119 --> 00:29:21,720 it. Actually he's planning to Um, there's a we're just waiting for a 357 00:29:21,759 --> 00:29:26,319 certain announcement about some stuff and then when it's already then he's going to come 358 00:29:26,319 --> 00:29:30,880 on and all right I can't wait on Yeah, all right. I think 359 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:36,480 also the timing of it has to do with um, you know, the 360 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:42,920 whole football you know, tournaments there at Circa m you know, getting people 361 00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,720 there prior to the whole football season starting. And yeah, that would make 362 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,920 sense because that would be primetime to sign up for the Circa Survivor of the 363 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,039 circa millions the other contests that are yeah going on around town. So yeah, 364 00:29:57,039 --> 00:30:00,799 that would make sense because I'm sure a lot of these contest entrants from 365 00:30:00,839 --> 00:30:06,559 out of town would plan to travel to Vegas anyway at some point during the 366 00:30:06,599 --> 00:30:08,559 few weeks leading up to the season so they can register for these contests. 367 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:15,000 Do you play any of those contests? I didn't last year. I did 368 00:30:15,119 --> 00:30:21,839 a couple of years ago. Maybe I will again next year. The one 369 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:26,640 thing that that sort of turned me off these contests when I played the I 370 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,720 believe it was the Super Contest. I think it was about three years ago 371 00:30:30,759 --> 00:30:33,799 I played. I had a group of people who were friends of mine here 372 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:40,680 in Toronto and we had a joint entry. We cashed for a pretty small 373 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:45,000 amount, I think a couple of thousand bucks and they actually withheld I think 374 00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:51,440 it was thirty or thirty five percent tax. And you know, I know 375 00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:56,799 that's that's normal for you Americans, but in Canada, gambling winnings are not 376 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:00,200 taxable, and I believe it's that way in most of the world. Think 377 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:06,200 the Americans are the are the outliers on this. So um, whenever you 378 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:11,119 enter one of these tournaments based in the US, anything you win gets taxed 379 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:12,519 and you can get it back, but it's a real hassle, a lot 380 00:31:12,519 --> 00:31:17,440 of paperwork. You have to fill in some irs paperwork to reclaim the money, 381 00:31:18,079 --> 00:31:22,200 and that that whole experience kind of turned me off the contest circuit, 382 00:31:22,319 --> 00:31:27,279 just because once you factor in at tax consequences, um, you know, 383 00:31:27,279 --> 00:31:30,880 the EV becomes way lower. It's a lot of work. You have to 384 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,359 keep track if you're if you're doing Survivor, you have to play in your 385 00:31:34,359 --> 00:31:40,279 whole strategy and then adjust that things happen during the season. If you're playing 386 00:31:40,359 --> 00:31:45,000 the pick Um contest, whether it's a Circle Millions or the Westgate Super Contest, 387 00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,400 you've got to figure out your whole kind of algorithm for how much you're 388 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:52,480 going to wait that the steam plays, and how much you're going to you 389 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:56,359 know, fade the public or fade the Sunday Night game because everyone likes to 390 00:31:56,359 --> 00:32:00,200 play that and it's just not something that I had enough enough free time to 391 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:05,839 think about last year, but lots of time this year to try and change 392 00:32:05,839 --> 00:32:07,799 my mind on that one. 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It's not going to be particularly difficult, 410 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,519 as existing software is fully capable of creating this new strategy for you, 411 00:33:40,279 --> 00:33:45,359 but it is something that you should go through before you attempt to play this 412 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,960 game in a casino. If you're interested in getting an edge at sports betting, 413 00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,200 then unabated dot com is a great resource for you. Founded by frequent 414 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:58,240 Gambling with an Edge guests Captain Jack and rufus Peaboddy, unabated is designed for 415 00:33:58,319 --> 00:34:04,279 both new and experienced sports betters. The real time odd screen tools and calculators 416 00:34:04,359 --> 00:34:07,360 take a lot of the guesswork out of trying to quantify your itche There's also 417 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:12,639 plenty of free education and instruction to help you along your journey to becoming a 418 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,039 sharper sports better. You can currently take advantage of a seven day free trial 419 00:34:16,159 --> 00:34:21,440 to decide if the premium membership at unabated is right for you. All right, 420 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,559 we're talking with Matt at plus CEV Analytics. Now. When you were 421 00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:30,199 last on our show, we learned that you have a full time job and 422 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:37,639 are part time sports Better. Richard asked you if you ever wanted to become 423 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:45,039 a full time sports better and you said, basically, you're better off with 424 00:34:45,079 --> 00:34:47,880 a full time job. Now. Has that changed in the last two years 425 00:34:49,039 --> 00:34:52,840 or do you see it changing soon? That has not changed in the last 426 00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:59,840 two years. I don't anticipate it changing anytime soon, And really the reasons 427 00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:06,079 haven't changed either. I have a great job at a great company that I 428 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,159 enjoy. I enjoy the work, I enjoy the people, the money is 429 00:35:10,199 --> 00:35:17,559 decent, and I'm really trying to have it all because, yes, I 430 00:35:17,639 --> 00:35:23,719 have been fairly successful in sports betting. Twenty twenty two was my best year 431 00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:32,760 ever, mostly because my home jurisdiction of Ontario finally opened up legalized in twenty 432 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:38,840 twenty two. But it's just not something I could see myself doing full time, 433 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:45,679 even if I could make a living income this year and next year and 434 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:51,679 maybe the year after. I've got a good twenty plus years of working career 435 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:58,320 left, and I am not confident enough that I can predict what the state 436 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:02,559 of sports betting is going to you like as we get towards the tail end 437 00:36:02,599 --> 00:36:09,400 of my working years, to be able to be confident that this can put 438 00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:14,920 food on the table for the rest of my life. So that's the main 439 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:22,480 reason why I'm continuing in my dual role as a full time actuary and a 440 00:36:22,599 --> 00:36:28,639 gambler in my spare time as a hobby. You were before we started off 441 00:36:28,679 --> 00:36:32,679 the air, you were kind of pessimistic about the future of sports betting. 442 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,519 Why was that? I am, and I think i'm I'm the minority in 443 00:36:40,639 --> 00:36:46,519 what I'm about to say. But let me offer you an analogy. So 444 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:52,280 say you have an intersection of two really busy roads, four lane roads north 445 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:59,119 south east west busy intersection, Okay, and suppose at all four corners of 446 00:36:59,159 --> 00:37:04,039 this intersection and our gas station, you have four different gas stations. They're 447 00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,119 each setting their own price, and they each offer four different types of gas 448 00:37:08,159 --> 00:37:14,039 your economy, your mid grade, your premium, and your diesel. Okay, 449 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,719 they're each setting their own price, and just by coincidence, each one 450 00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:23,280 happens to be a couple cents cheaper than the others on one of a different 451 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:29,920 one of the four types of gas. So you have four gas stations, 452 00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:34,400 each one is a little bit cheaper on their own type. But unless you 453 00:37:34,559 --> 00:37:40,679 are the shrewdest of penny pinchers, most people are not going to make a 454 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:45,280 difficult left turn across four lanes of traffic to save a couple of pennies a 455 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,559 gallon on gas. They're just going to go to the station that is kind 456 00:37:49,559 --> 00:37:53,480 of directly in their path or convenient. So what each of these stations is 457 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,880 going to see when they rack up their sales at the end of the month, 458 00:37:58,079 --> 00:38:01,480 is the guy who was a couple of sents cheaper on diesel is probably 459 00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:06,840 going to sell a little bit more diesel than the other stations, but not 460 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,280 too much more. They're going to have a pretty even mix, just because 461 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:15,480 people are going to go for whatever is convenient. Now, suppose the city 462 00:38:15,519 --> 00:38:22,079 comes in and the city builds a network in this intersection of tunnels and ramps 463 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:29,760 that makes it easier for anybody traveling on any road in any direction to reach 464 00:38:30,119 --> 00:38:34,079 any of those four gas stations. So you're no longer making a tough left 465 00:38:34,079 --> 00:38:37,239 across four lanes. There is a tunnel that will get you right to wherever 466 00:38:37,679 --> 00:38:43,519 you want to go. So what's going to happen now? Now the costs 467 00:38:43,599 --> 00:38:47,199 of shopping has come way way down, and on what you would find now 468 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:52,920 is the guy who is a couple of cents cheaper on diesel, is going 469 00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:58,920 to sell almost exclusively diesel because the guy who wants premium is going to go 470 00:38:59,039 --> 00:39:01,639 to the station. That's a couple a sense cheaper on premium because it costs 471 00:39:01,679 --> 00:39:08,440 almost nothing and the inconvenience is much much less of shopping around. These tunnels 472 00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:14,960 and ramps are your don best, your unabated, your bet stamp, your 473 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:20,400 spank odds. They're different products. They're aimed at slightly different audiences, I 474 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,199 would say, but they do essentially the same thing, which is they will 475 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:28,519 tell you for any given game, for any given bet, they will put 476 00:39:28,559 --> 00:39:32,079 all the different books odds in front of you at the same time on one 477 00:39:32,199 --> 00:39:36,679 screen. Whereas before, if you wanted to shop for the best lines, 478 00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:40,400 you would have to open up twenty different windows, log into twenty different books. 479 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:45,599 And you know, there were some really shrewd penny pinters who I'm sure 480 00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:51,199 did that, but the majority did not. This makes it much much easier. 481 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,760 So what you're going to get going back to the gas station and own 482 00:39:54,159 --> 00:40:00,679 the diesel guy is going to sell almost exclusively diesel, which is not that 483 00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:07,039 much of a problem for him, because yeah, maybe he has misinterpreted or 484 00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:13,199 not evaluated the competition all that well, but he's not an idiot. He's 485 00:40:13,199 --> 00:40:17,480 not going to price his diesel at less than what it costs him from this 486 00:40:17,559 --> 00:40:21,880 wholesale or to acquire it. So he's not going to lose money even if 487 00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,599 he's priced a little bit cheaper than the competition. Now, imagine for a 488 00:40:25,639 --> 00:40:32,400 second that the guy buying his dealer from the wholesaler didn't know in advance what 489 00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:37,000 his wholesale price was going. He found out at the end of the month. 490 00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:38,920 Okay, here's what you owe me for all the diesel you bought from 491 00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:43,199 me in the last month. What he would have to do is he would 492 00:40:43,199 --> 00:40:49,400 have to guess what his wholesale price and then mark it up. And with 493 00:40:49,559 --> 00:40:53,880 that, now you introduce the possibility that the diesel guy is going to be 494 00:40:54,000 --> 00:41:01,719 cheapest on diesel because he misestimated his costs. And that is more similar to 495 00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:06,400 what you see in the insurance industry, and it is more similar to what 496 00:41:06,559 --> 00:41:13,519 the betting industry, in my opinion, could become if these odd screens become 497 00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:20,559 adopted in more of a widespread way. If you look at the travel industry, 498 00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,039 it's almost second nature these days. If you want to book a flight 499 00:41:24,119 --> 00:41:30,199 somewhere. You go to an Expedia or a travelossit or one of these aggregators, 500 00:41:30,199 --> 00:41:32,239 and you type in where you want and it will search all the airlines 501 00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:37,039 and find you the best deals. It wasn't always this way. It's second 502 00:41:37,119 --> 00:41:42,800 nature now, and I think that is what could potentially happen with these odd 503 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:49,199 screens if they become the Expedia of sports betting and it just becomes second nature 504 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:57,000 for a large share of the betting population to use these odd screens. What 505 00:41:57,039 --> 00:42:00,440 you're going to happen is what's going to happen is that books are going to 506 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:07,119 disproportionately write action where they are the best price in the market, and so 507 00:42:07,199 --> 00:42:10,360 that's going to push the holes way down. It may not necessarily push them 508 00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:14,920 to negative or to zero, but you don't have to. You know, 509 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,280 you look at these companies that are that are coming out with financial results these 510 00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:22,480 days. They're holding seven to eight percent and they're still losing money because their 511 00:42:22,519 --> 00:42:30,880 expense load is so high between systems and marketing and banking expenses. Like so, 512 00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,800 so what does the fear that some of them go out of business? 513 00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:37,199 Or I mean, yeah, so what could happen? So what could happen 514 00:42:37,679 --> 00:42:40,400 is the gas stations could start to collude and they could start to all charge 515 00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:44,719 the same price and all move at the same time in the same way. 516 00:42:45,039 --> 00:42:49,280 That's one thing that could happen is that every book would find a way to 517 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:54,559 move pretty much in lockstep to avoid this adverse selection problem. Another thing that 518 00:42:54,639 --> 00:43:00,280 could happen is the industry could consolidate. Where of the thirty books in the 519 00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,880 industry, you know, you may have two or three left by the time 520 00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:09,400 some of them either go out of business or get merged or bought by some 521 00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:15,320 of the larger players. That's one possibility, and another possibility, really is 522 00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:21,000 the whole industry could just implode. If yeah, you say, you say 523 00:43:21,079 --> 00:43:24,639 no, but I think right now we're very early in this odd screen adoption. 524 00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:30,840 You you have some very very good products out there from betsdamp, from 525 00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:37,400 spank odds, from unabated, but they have not yet caught on in a 526 00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:43,000 way that it's really disrupting the industry all that much. We've gone from making 527 00:43:43,079 --> 00:43:45,119 up numbers here, but let's say used to be one percent, now two 528 00:43:45,159 --> 00:43:51,599 percent will will actively shot for lines. What happens if that number ever becomes 529 00:43:51,599 --> 00:43:55,599 fifty percent or seventy percent. I think the industry will look a lot different 530 00:43:55,800 --> 00:44:00,840 from what it looks like today. Adverse selection. And I've lived through this, 531 00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:04,639 um as someone who works in the insurance industry, where the economics are 532 00:44:04,679 --> 00:44:10,719 fairly similar. Adverse selection is no joke. And UM, the the lower 533 00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,400 you make those barriers to shopping, the easier you make it for customers, 534 00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:22,079 uh to to to find the best lines. Uh. And I'm not saying 535 00:44:22,119 --> 00:44:25,239 this is one hundred percent definitive, definitively what could happen, but I think 536 00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:32,280 it's a very real possibility that these holds that sports books are carrying are going 537 00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:37,440 to start to inch lower or and lower as line shopping starts to take more 538 00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:42,039 effect. And so the one thing that could happen, books could double down 539 00:44:42,039 --> 00:44:44,679 on their marketing to say, hey, you know, don't shop for the 540 00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,880 best lines, come to come to my book because my book has the best 541 00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:52,119 service and the best promotions and you know, the easiest user experience and blah 542 00:44:52,119 --> 00:44:57,920 blah blah, to to to discourage that behavior. And they might try that. 543 00:44:58,119 --> 00:45:00,400 It might work, it might not. UM, but I think that 544 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:07,239 that people who assume that the sports betting industry in ten years will look like 545 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,599 it looks now. I think there's a very real possibility that it will not. 546 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,800 I think it could change. I mean, I have a couple of 547 00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:20,000 thoughts. One, I think people are basically lazy, and I can't you 548 00:45:20,039 --> 00:45:25,199 know, I've heard several people say things like, oh, you know it's 549 00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:31,639 it's it's plus one forty somewhere else, but it's only plus one twenty at 550 00:45:31,639 --> 00:45:35,639 this place. But that's where I have my money on deposits. So I'm 551 00:45:35,639 --> 00:45:39,920 just gonna bet it anyway, you know, because they don't have money in 552 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:47,440 all the different accounts. Yeah, and the customer service thing I can get. 553 00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:52,280 I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I was playing backham And 554 00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,079 with a guy and he told me he was a bookie, and I was 555 00:45:55,159 --> 00:46:00,079 like, how can you be a bookie in Vegas? Like anybody can just 556 00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:05,639 walk into a sports book and make the bets, and he goes, yeah, 557 00:46:05,679 --> 00:46:08,119 but they can't call the sports book and Sunday morning in their underwear and 558 00:46:08,199 --> 00:46:12,400 make the bets. And I was like, oh, yeah, I guess 559 00:46:12,199 --> 00:46:16,960 that makes sense. So if you're providing service that the other books don't, 560 00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:21,719 maybe you get more of a market here. But you know, when you're 561 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:27,480 dealing with a vice like gambling. I just can't see it imploding, although 562 00:46:27,599 --> 00:46:32,760 I can see it if if people become educated about it, I can see 563 00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:42,079 it shifting to a you know, rather than a bookmaker model, shifting to 564 00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:47,360 a you know, like a betfair or or a paramutual model. Or a 565 00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:52,639 paramutual model, yeah, which is something that I've thought about a lot over 566 00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,880 the years. And the good thing about a paramutual model is that it's got 567 00:46:55,880 --> 00:47:01,199 this built in immunity to adverse select because all the players are playing against each 568 00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:05,800 other and the house just takes a rake. So if you think about what 569 00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:10,000 happened back in the poker boom, it started out where all most of the 570 00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:15,840 players were fairly inexperienced, uneducated, didn't know what they were doing. They 571 00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:19,599 wanted to play the game they were seeing on TV, and they just were 572 00:47:19,639 --> 00:47:22,480 not very good at it. And the people who were really good at poker 573 00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:29,519 made a lot of money. And then eventually the average of the player pool 574 00:47:29,599 --> 00:47:34,480 got sharper and sharper and sharper, partially because the worst players ran out of 575 00:47:34,519 --> 00:47:38,199 money and quit, and partially because some of the bad players got themselves educated, 576 00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:43,360 read books and became better at the game. So the average skill level 577 00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:46,639 of the pool for those two reads is improving and improving and improving over time. 578 00:47:47,199 --> 00:47:52,039 The poker sites didn't really care because they got their rake either way, 579 00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:55,199 but the players then had to sort of rise to the level of the competition 580 00:47:55,639 --> 00:48:01,119 to continue playing poker as a sustainable source of income. And that's about when 581 00:48:01,119 --> 00:48:06,679 I stopped, because I was good, but I wasn't good enough to continue 582 00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,599 winning. Once, you know, the Americans all got banned and the player 583 00:48:10,639 --> 00:48:15,159 pool just sharpened up quite a bit. And that's sort of when I pivoted 584 00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:19,000 to just the sports betting. And so I agree with you, Richard, 585 00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,119 because when you say this is a vice and the industry is not going to 586 00:48:22,159 --> 00:48:28,519 go away, I think you're absolutely right. The biggest difference between other gambling 587 00:48:28,559 --> 00:48:32,559 games and sports betting is when you run a casino, the odds are in 588 00:48:32,559 --> 00:48:37,480 your favor. The odds are always going to be you know, the odds 589 00:48:37,519 --> 00:48:40,760 of the rules of craps are are known, they are well defined, you 590 00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:44,679 know, unless you start, you know, doing some some funny things, 591 00:48:44,679 --> 00:48:47,199 but in the in the majority of cases, you kind of know what you're 592 00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:52,400 getting into. When you run a craps game, or a blackjack game, 593 00:48:52,599 --> 00:48:57,079 or a roulette game. When you are running a sports book, the economics 594 00:48:57,119 --> 00:49:00,920 of that are so so different. There is no way to guarantee that you 595 00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:07,440 have the odds in your favor like you can when you're running a roulette table, 596 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:14,920 because you have to offer every side of every market, of every game 597 00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:20,639 of every day. And meanwhile, you have a community, a world of 598 00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,440 betters who are just waiting for you to make a mistake or to be five 599 00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:29,280 minutes slow on a line move because you know, Lebron James just announced he's 600 00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:34,320 out with an injury. The information is always emerging from the universe, and 601 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:38,599 it is impossible to be on top of all of it to the millisecond. 602 00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:45,320 So you, as a sportsbook operator, are not able to run your business 603 00:49:45,679 --> 00:49:50,119 with the certainty that you have an edge that you would have when you're running 604 00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:57,519 a casino. And that I think is something that is not paid enough attention 605 00:49:57,599 --> 00:50:01,679 to by the industry because they're all doing right now. Because again I'm going 606 00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:06,679 to make this number up, two percent of the population is line shopping. 607 00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,039 What's going to happen when that number gets larger. If that number gets larger, 608 00:50:10,079 --> 00:50:13,760 I don't know if it will, but I do know that if it 609 00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:17,559 does, and there are at least three or four companies out there who are 610 00:50:17,599 --> 00:50:22,440 trying to make it happen because they have really good products and they just have 611 00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,440 to market them. You know, the guy who was taking plus one twenty 612 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:30,800 because he's too lazy to take plus one forty. One day, he might 613 00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,679 have an epiphany. One day, he might realize, and it may be 614 00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:38,280 as simple as just the odd screen speaking to him or her in a way 615 00:50:38,519 --> 00:50:43,960 that resonates with him or her. Hey, you know, you you lost 616 00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,400 a thousand dollars betting last month. Based on your results, you could have 617 00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:51,320 won two thousand if you had made the exact same bets you made but been 618 00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,800 more choosy about where you made them. Well, that resonates with me as 619 00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:59,280 an amateur. Better you know, who would like to win instead of loose, 620 00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,119 or who wouldn't like to lose less instead of lose more. I think 621 00:51:02,159 --> 00:51:07,840 the hook is sort of yet to be discovered in terms of what is that 622 00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:14,239 one turning point that really pushes up the adoption of these odd screens. But 623 00:51:15,039 --> 00:51:16,840 I think it's going to happen at some point sooner or later. There are 624 00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:22,880 just too many good products out there, too many smart people behind them, 625 00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:30,159 and the population of sports betters. They're not getting dumber over time, They're 626 00:51:30,199 --> 00:51:32,760 getting smarter over to. You still have a bunch of squares. You're always 627 00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:37,800 going to have a bunch of squares. But I can foresee a period of 628 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,360 time in the future. Just like poker. People are still playing poker today, 629 00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:46,679 but there are not as many people playing poker as prominently as there were 630 00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:51,000 in When was the height of the poker boom? I'm too old, two 631 00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:54,400 thousand and three. It started in two and start three was Chris Moneymaker, 632 00:51:54,519 --> 00:52:00,639 right, And for five or so years poker was everywhere, and I think 633 00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:07,920 right now sports betting is everywhere. Like even in my home country of Canada, 634 00:52:08,079 --> 00:52:13,800 there is a Saturday night hockey game every every week. It's called Hockey 635 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:17,840 Night in Canada, and it is a national institution in kind of a similar 636 00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:24,760 way that Monday Night Football is in America, and the first intermission of Hockey 637 00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:32,320 Night in Canada is one of the biggest prestige TV spots in Canadian sports media. 638 00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:36,480 I don't know if you know a guy named Don Cherry. He was 639 00:52:36,519 --> 00:52:40,960 a big Canadian kind of loudmouth pundit and he used to have that first intermission 640 00:52:42,039 --> 00:52:46,320 slot until he got fired for making some racist comments a couple of years ago. 641 00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:52,400 But for anyway, this is the prestige TV spot for Canadian sports media. 642 00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:59,320 And last year my friend Annie Andy McNeil is digital gambler on Twitter and 643 00:52:59,559 --> 00:53:04,079 they actually they put him on Hockey Night in Canada in that first intermission spot 644 00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:12,519 talking about the betting lines. And this was just like a crazy amount of 645 00:53:13,639 --> 00:53:17,920 emphasis and prestige to put on this, and it made sense because ever since 646 00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:22,599 April, at least in Ontario, ever since April of twenty twenty two, 647 00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:29,320 sports betting has been everywhere. But I can foresee a point in time where 648 00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:31,360 that may no longer be the case. People are going to bet sports forever, 649 00:53:32,159 --> 00:53:37,320 but there might be a time where the sort of sexiness level of sports 650 00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:44,119 betting drops, like the sexiness level of poker has dropped in the last decade 651 00:53:44,199 --> 00:53:47,400 or so. And when that happens again, that will be a catalyst for 652 00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:52,000 some of the less sharp betters to drop out of the market. The sharp 653 00:53:52,039 --> 00:53:55,639 betters are not going anywhere because the source of income for them, But again, 654 00:53:55,760 --> 00:54:02,480 what happens when the average level of the population increases in poker, it 655 00:54:02,639 --> 00:54:07,800 just made it harder for all the players in sports betting. That pain is 656 00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:12,320 going to go to the operators unless there are some big changes made it. 657 00:54:12,719 --> 00:54:17,679 I just want to make mention one thing before we get to recommendations. They 658 00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:22,320 did try paramutual sports betting in Las Vegas. I think it was in the 659 00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:30,519 eighties and it is legal here, but they tried it and they just couldn't 660 00:54:30,559 --> 00:54:34,920 get it to catch on. They just couldn't get people to bet into it. 661 00:54:35,159 --> 00:54:37,639 It would have to be marketed in a very specific way to sort of 662 00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:45,320 highlight the differences between traditional sports betting and this paramutualism. The biggest downside would 663 00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:49,119 be that you, as a better wouldn't know the odds you're getting until after 664 00:54:49,199 --> 00:54:52,320 the game has started, sort of like it is in horse racing today. 665 00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:57,719 And I think that would be a challenge to educate betters on kind of why 666 00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,079 that's not the end of the world. If you bet some thing at plus 667 00:55:00,119 --> 00:55:05,920 one sixty and it's plus one forty by the time tip off happens, that 668 00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:10,800 would be a challenge. I don't think it is insurmountable, and I think 669 00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:14,000 it may have just been ahead of its time a little bit, as much 670 00:55:14,039 --> 00:55:16,199 as you can say about something it's been around for one hundred and fifty years. 671 00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:22,639 I think it's time will come. Twenty twenty three may not be the 672 00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:28,440 right time, but I think that if and when all of these challenges to 673 00:55:28,519 --> 00:55:32,920 the that I'm talking about ever come to pass, I think that would be 674 00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:42,400 one of possible directions the industry could go to get away from this what what 675 00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:47,599 I think is an existential threat of adverse selection. We're not there yet. 676 00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,519 One day we might be. If our listeners wanted to get a hold of 677 00:55:52,559 --> 00:55:54,480 you, what would be the best way to do that? Best way it 678 00:55:54,480 --> 00:56:01,119 would be on Twitter at plus ev analytics all one word, plus ev analytics. 679 00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:04,800 As you all know by now, at the end of the show, 680 00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:09,159 we have a recommended section, and Bob's Internet has cut out, so I'm 681 00:56:09,199 --> 00:56:15,079 going to go right into my recommended I'm watching a really, really great show 682 00:56:15,159 --> 00:56:20,440 right now. I a few weeks back or months ago, I recommended a 683 00:56:20,519 --> 00:56:24,280 show, an Israeli show called Hit and Run, and somebody wrote to me 684 00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:29,960 and said, you know, the same actor is in this show called Fouda 685 00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:40,760 fau Da. It's an Israeli show about a special operations group and same actor 686 00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:45,000 that's in Hit and Run. It is. They have four seasons. It 687 00:56:45,199 --> 00:56:52,880 is really really well done, very suspenseful, really really good show. And 688 00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:54,679 how about you, Matt, you have something to recommend for us this week? 689 00:56:55,519 --> 00:56:59,880 I do, and I apologize for committing a little bit of padult, 690 00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:04,320 although Richard's actually in this one, so maybe it's only a half pudultery. 691 00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:10,320 But Risk of Ruin is a fantastic podcast and they do episodes not only on 692 00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:17,239 betting but the stock market. They've done a couple and anything involving risk And 693 00:57:17,679 --> 00:57:22,840 there was an episode last week actually about dice control in craps, which is 694 00:57:23,039 --> 00:57:28,199 a subject that I now know a lot more about than I ever thought I 695 00:57:28,239 --> 00:57:34,239 would. It's a fascinating story, a lot of really kind of mechanical engineering 696 00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:38,159 type stuff. The guys actually built a robot, dice throwing robot see if 697 00:57:38,199 --> 00:57:44,519 they could reproduce the perfect role. And like I said, Richard is in 698 00:57:44,559 --> 00:57:47,639 it, as well as a couple of other people who are involved in that 699 00:57:47,719 --> 00:57:52,920 story. And I highly recommend all of his podcasts at Risk of Ruin, 700 00:57:52,519 --> 00:57:59,079 but especially the most recent believe it's called rabbit Hole and it's about advantage play 701 00:57:59,199 --> 00:58:04,000 in craps. Yeah, it's an excellent, excellent episode, really good. 702 00:58:04,599 --> 00:58:07,920 Okay, well that's it for our show this week. Go out and hit 703 00:58:07,039 --> 00:58:09,440 lots of royal flushes. Everybody. Good day,