WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.559 We're gonna go right out there to the Kowa Common Spirit Health Hotline and bring 2 00:00:05.559 --> 00:00:09.880 on our buddy Ryan Michael, who is as a new title now he's a 3 00:00:09.919 --> 00:00:14.279 contributing writer and analyst for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. No Inside the 4 00:00:14.359 --> 00:00:19.280 number is with Ryan Michael. Say, we gotta line it for everything. 5 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:23.800 Look at this, Ryan, you are now BCT official. I like that 6 00:00:24.039 --> 00:00:27.079 liner. How are you guys tonight? Doing pretty good? Man? We've 7 00:00:27.079 --> 00:00:29.839 been talking all day. We've been, We've been, We've been arguing back 8 00:00:29.839 --> 00:00:32.719 and forth. Although I think Nick and I are actually of the same opinion, 9 00:00:33.399 --> 00:00:40.079 and that is that the idea that pushing all in on a quarterback. 10 00:00:41.640 --> 00:00:46.200 It sounds great in a in a vacuum, in a spreadsheet environment, Yeah, 11 00:00:46.240 --> 00:00:48.399 that's what you do. You can't win without the quarterback, right, 12 00:00:48.920 --> 00:00:53.320 But in reality, you can't win without good players. And trading away good 13 00:00:53.320 --> 00:01:00.159 players for lottery tickets is not what I would consider common sense. But we 14 00:01:00.200 --> 00:01:03.280 gave you a mission. You were out there all week churning the data, 15 00:01:03.359 --> 00:01:07.959 burning the data, going through it all. What does the numbers actually tell 16 00:01:07.040 --> 00:01:11.120 us on this? Well, I would start by saying that you're not wrong. 17 00:01:12.040 --> 00:01:17.760 You can win without greatness at the quarterback position. You're very unlikely to 18 00:01:17.799 --> 00:01:22.760 win without having a good team in totality. So what I did is I 19 00:01:22.799 --> 00:01:27.239 took a dive into all of the first round and second round draft selections since 20 00:01:27.280 --> 00:01:33.480 twenty ten, and I gave them my own personal subjective grade. I like 21 00:01:33.560 --> 00:01:37.760 color coding things, so I went green for quarterbacks who just played well, 22 00:01:37.760 --> 00:01:41.959 not necessarily slammed on qull of famers, but quarterbacks who played well within their 23 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:45.840 situation. I went yellow for quarterbacks who were okay, maybe they had a 24 00:01:45.879 --> 00:01:49.840 season that was good, but overall, you know, somewhat average, and 25 00:01:49.959 --> 00:01:53.799 red is just for bust, plain and simple. I'm happy to stand by 26 00:01:53.879 --> 00:01:57.719 any of those selections. You know, everything is subjective. So for me, 27 00:01:57.920 --> 00:02:01.000 I had RG three green, maybe you put them in yellow. I 28 00:02:01.040 --> 00:02:05.560 had Colin Kaepernick and yellow. Maybe you put him in green. But overall 29 00:02:05.599 --> 00:02:08.400 we're going to be looking at pretty similar percentages. So I broke it into 30 00:02:08.439 --> 00:02:13.840 four different categories. The first are number one overall draft selections, and by 31 00:02:13.879 --> 00:02:19.240 my measures, seventy seven point eight percent of those have been green. Eighty 32 00:02:19.280 --> 00:02:23.240 eight point nine percent have been green too yellow, So those are pretty good 33 00:02:23.240 --> 00:02:25.960 odds that you're going to get somebody you're not completely disappointed with. BLUs rate 34 00:02:27.039 --> 00:02:30.759 eleven point one percent when you take it down to picks number two through number 35 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:35.800 ten. So for everyone talking about the three quarterbacks and the big four out 36 00:02:35.800 --> 00:02:38.919 of Caleb Williams, these are the percentages I think to look at. You're 37 00:02:38.919 --> 00:02:43.000 looking at a thirty one point three percent green, you're looking at a sixty 38 00:02:43.000 --> 00:02:46.120 two and a half percent green to yellow, and you're looking at a thirty 39 00:02:46.159 --> 00:02:53.080 seven point five percent bus rate. So that's takenificately less success, significantly less 40 00:02:53.080 --> 00:02:55.080 success, and you're going to see a lot of yellow mixed in there. 41 00:02:55.199 --> 00:02:59.759 So you know, do you want to draft on Mitchell Trubiski? Do you 42 00:02:59.800 --> 00:03:02.479 want a draft of Marcus Mariota? Guys who had maybe a season or two 43 00:03:02.520 --> 00:03:07.000 where they played Okay, I don't think that's what the Denver Broncos are looking 44 00:03:07.000 --> 00:03:08.639 for at all. And if you take it outside of the top ten, 45 00:03:08.680 --> 00:03:14.199 you're going to see a steep decline in performance. Where green is twenty one 46 00:03:14.240 --> 00:03:17.560 point four percent, yellow is just up twenty eight point six percent, So 47 00:03:17.840 --> 00:03:22.280 you're looking at about a one in four chance that you're going to get anything 48 00:03:22.280 --> 00:03:24.960 that you're satisfied with. If you're drafting outside of the top ten plus rate 49 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:29.840 of seventy one point four percent, and if you expanded out to second round 50 00:03:29.919 --> 00:03:32.439 quarterbacks, you're going to see green is eight point three percent, Green to 51 00:03:32.520 --> 00:03:38.800 yellow forty one point seven percent. Because there were a few yellow grade quarterbacks 52 00:03:38.919 --> 00:03:42.120 who are drafted in the second round. That would be Colin Kaepernick, Derreck 53 00:03:42.240 --> 00:03:46.400 Carr, Andydalton plus rate fifty eight point three percent. So in totality, 54 00:03:46.759 --> 00:03:51.159 the Bears can feel very comfortable at the number one overall selection. The other 55 00:03:51.520 --> 00:03:54.039 three in the top four is anything but a sure bet, and if you're 56 00:03:54.120 --> 00:03:58.919 drafting outside of the top ten, you better be prepared for disappointment, all 57 00:03:59.000 --> 00:04:01.199 right, Ran, When we look at this quarterback position, obviously, every 58 00:04:01.199 --> 00:04:06.360 single year the conversation is about quarterbacks and the guys taken in the first round. 59 00:04:06.560 --> 00:04:10.319 So with this list of quarterbacks, I'm gonna give you tell me. 60 00:04:10.599 --> 00:04:15.680 Are we looking at these particular quarterbacks as being anomalies When you look at maybe 61 00:04:15.000 --> 00:04:19.399 a Russell Wilson, a Tom Brady, and a Dak Prescott and even Rot 62 00:04:19.399 --> 00:04:25.319 Purdy, And of those quarterbacks, three of those quarterbacks have been to Super 63 00:04:25.319 --> 00:04:29.879 Bowls. Only two of those quarterbacks have actually won Super Bowls. So are 64 00:04:29.920 --> 00:04:34.399 we looking at this group who have been either mister irrelevant or drafted in third 65 00:04:34.480 --> 00:04:40.040 rounds and below as just being anomalies when we look at playing a quarterback position. 66 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:44.879 As much as I appreciate the feel good stories, I don't put nearly 67 00:04:44.920 --> 00:04:48.160 as much stock into those outliers as most people might. So if you look 68 00:04:48.199 --> 00:04:53.199 at the notable exceptions meeting guys outside of the second round, third through seven, 69 00:04:53.279 --> 00:04:56.759 so even undrafted in Kurt Warner's case, what you're going to find as 70 00:04:56.800 --> 00:05:01.759 the common denominator is that they all played an incredible favorable situations. So Tom 71 00:05:01.800 --> 00:05:06.399 Brady right the goat one ninety nine overall in two thousand. She's also a 72 00:05:06.399 --> 00:05:11.759 guy who had seventeen top ten defenses in twenty one years. He had Bill 73 00:05:11.800 --> 00:05:15.680 Belichick at head coach and then he downgraded to a two time head coach of 74 00:05:15.680 --> 00:05:18.480 the year. In vers arians, he had Gronkowski, Welker, Moss, 75 00:05:18.720 --> 00:05:23.680 Clots, Edelman, Evans Godwin, a strong offensive line up front. So 76 00:05:24.079 --> 00:05:26.879 Andy played in the worst division in football, so there were a lot of 77 00:05:26.920 --> 00:05:30.240 other components that contributed to his success. In the case of Russell Wilson, 78 00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:34.560 he came into a situation that had Pete Carroll at head coach, Marshawn Lynch 79 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:40.720 in the backfield, and the legion of Broumont defense Dak Prescott stars all over 80 00:05:40.800 --> 00:05:43.680 both sides of the football, and same with Brock Purdy, and he has 81 00:05:43.759 --> 00:05:46.199 Kyle Shanahan at head coach. So if you're looking at guys who are drafted 82 00:05:46.240 --> 00:05:50.279 outside of the first two rounds, and in most cases really even outside of 83 00:05:50.279 --> 00:05:54.519 the top ten, think to yourself, ask yourself, how many of those 84 00:05:54.600 --> 00:05:59.040 quarterbacks who have found success have done so on average or below average robsters. 85 00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:01.920 It's a virtually invisible risk. Well, right, And that's the thing is 86 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:05.279 I'm looking over I'm actually scrolling a list of Super Bowl winners right now, 87 00:06:05.279 --> 00:06:09.519 and I'm like, every one of these teams was stacked rosters. There isn't 88 00:06:09.560 --> 00:06:13.879 a there isn't an example here of a team that even made not not necessarily 89 00:06:13.920 --> 00:06:17.319 one, even made the Super Bowl without a stacked roster around them. And 90 00:06:17.319 --> 00:06:20.040 and you know, some of these teams had middling quarterbacks. I mean, 91 00:06:20.079 --> 00:06:23.480 you know, everybody likes to talk about Trent Till for winning a Super Bowl. 92 00:06:23.959 --> 00:06:26.399 For me, making the Super Bowls good enough, I mean, you 93 00:06:26.439 --> 00:06:29.720 want to win it. Making it is is just such a hard enough task. 94 00:06:30.240 --> 00:06:32.120 Uh. And you look at the guys that have that have made the 95 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:35.720 super Bowl. I mean, Jake Deloane made a super Bowl. You know 96 00:06:35.800 --> 00:06:40.040 Rex Grossman, uh made a super Bowl. We can go back and look 97 00:06:40.040 --> 00:06:42.120 at some of these, you know, some of these guys that made super 98 00:06:42.120 --> 00:06:46.079 Bowls, but the teams around them were absolutely stacked. And so that's that's 99 00:06:46.120 --> 00:06:49.519 the thing I don't understand at the end of the day. Is it smart 100 00:06:49.600 --> 00:06:54.439 roster building to trade away a sure thing, a top five guy in your 101 00:06:54.439 --> 00:06:58.800 position, even if that quote unquote doesn't impact the win total, to get 102 00:06:58.839 --> 00:07:01.759 a lottery ticket on on a quarterback in this particular case, in this particular 103 00:07:02.040 --> 00:07:06.279 draft for the Broncos, it's either going to be the third and very much 104 00:07:06.319 --> 00:07:13.800 most likely fourth crack at a quarterback. I personally don't think so there really 105 00:07:13.879 --> 00:07:17.199 isn't a historical precedent to say that the odds are in your favor. So 106 00:07:17.360 --> 00:07:21.399 even if hypothetically and you and I are both in agreement, realistically this is 107 00:07:21.439 --> 00:07:26.519 probably unlikely to happen. But even if Denver could trade up to get one 108 00:07:26.560 --> 00:07:30.560 of the top four, say JJ McCarthy is their guy if he is going 109 00:07:30.600 --> 00:07:35.199 to be entering a situation where the defense is incredibly weak. Right, we 110 00:07:35.279 --> 00:07:40.839 ranked twenty seventh in points per game surrendered and we lost Simmons. The offense 111 00:07:40.920 --> 00:07:45.279 last year was nineteenth in points scored, and we cut a starting quarterback who 112 00:07:45.319 --> 00:07:48.560 produced touchdowns at a rate greater than Patrick Mahomes. So even if JJ McCarthy 113 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:53.319 is as good as advertised, which is anything but a sure thing, right, 114 00:07:53.360 --> 00:07:57.680 about a one third percent chance that he'll be really good, A two 115 00:07:57.800 --> 00:08:01.439 third percents he'll at least be pretty good, a one to third percent chance 116 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:03.519 bust rate. If you look at the quarterbacks outside of number one who have 117 00:08:03.560 --> 00:08:09.480 found success, almost all of them stepped into favorable situations. Think Jalen Hurts 118 00:08:09.519 --> 00:08:13.600 in Philadelphia. I think Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. So even if Denver could 119 00:08:13.600 --> 00:08:18.240 pull that off, there's no reason to believe that JJ McCarthy would be likely 120 00:08:18.279 --> 00:08:20.600 to find success in that scenario. So when you look at some of these 121 00:08:20.680 --> 00:08:24.920 quarterbacks and you have that conversation of sure thing, and I'm giving you air 122 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:31.320 quotes here, what are some of the characteristics that would make a quarterback in 123 00:08:31.360 --> 00:08:37.039 your opinion, a surefire thing. There's really no such thing as a surefire 124 00:08:37.159 --> 00:08:41.720 thing. I mean, you want to look at quarterbacks who have great traits 125 00:08:41.759 --> 00:08:46.360 as far as preparation, So football IQ in preparation would be the top two 126 00:08:46.840 --> 00:08:50.960 off the field measures that I would be looking for. Pass accuracy would be 127 00:08:50.000 --> 00:08:54.000 the number one attribute I would look for in terms of physical skills. So 128 00:08:54.080 --> 00:09:00.759 I'm not concerned with a quarterback needing to have Josh Allen talent, few Stafford 129 00:09:00.799 --> 00:09:03.240 talent as far as throwing the football a huge bonus if you can get it, 130 00:09:03.440 --> 00:09:07.240 but it's not necessarily a prerequisent. You want to have adequate armstrength. 131 00:09:07.279 --> 00:09:11.000 Peyton Manning had that coming out of Tennessee. Trevor Lawrence had that coming out 132 00:09:11.000 --> 00:09:16.159 of Clemson. But there's very few scenarios where you could look at a quarterback 133 00:09:16.200 --> 00:09:20.799 prospect on paper and say that they're a surefire thing. John Elway, Peyton 134 00:09:20.840 --> 00:09:24.960 Manning, Andrew luck and Trevor Lawrence are really the top four where you could 135 00:09:24.960 --> 00:09:30.240 feel confident in that regard, and the first three were very very successful, 136 00:09:30.360 --> 00:09:33.559 two of them Hall of famers. Andrew Luck I wrote an article for the 137 00:09:33.559 --> 00:09:35.840 Pro Football Hall shame Achee months ago in my opinion, I feel that he 138 00:09:35.960 --> 00:09:41.879 actually overachieved relatives to the situation that he stepped into. But the situation wasn't 139 00:09:41.960 --> 00:09:46.559 anything like what Colt fans were hoping for. So there's really no running away 140 00:09:46.559 --> 00:09:52.200 from the reality that you need to build a strong team around the quarterback when 141 00:09:52.240 --> 00:09:54.480 you put this thing together. Because there's a couple of green yellows. You 142 00:09:54.519 --> 00:09:58.840 know, I disagree with it. You have to get Ryan Tannehill. You'd 143 00:09:58.879 --> 00:10:01.480 argie Threw is a green and tan as a yellow. I probably flopped those, 144 00:10:01.519 --> 00:10:03.320 but I mean, you know it is what it is. Were what 145 00:10:03.399 --> 00:10:09.320 did you put into this to determine success? Sure, So for me it's 146 00:10:09.360 --> 00:10:15.000 a matter of all twenty two coaches, film study, analytics, statistics. 147 00:10:15.080 --> 00:10:18.879 It's really my subjective judgment at the end of the day of onfield play relative 148 00:10:18.960 --> 00:10:24.759 to context of playing situation. So using RG three as an example, he 149 00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:28.159 had one great season and he was not the same after injury. But during 150 00:10:28.200 --> 00:10:31.480 that one great season he led the league in yards for attempt. He was 151 00:10:31.480 --> 00:10:37.039 started in the NFL in Tasse rating. He was named ap NFL Offensive Rookie 152 00:10:37.039 --> 00:10:39.639 of the Year over Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, who had great rookie seasons 153 00:10:39.720 --> 00:10:43.000 in their own regards. So whether or not he would have been able to 154 00:10:43.000 --> 00:10:46.200 sustain anything close to that level of play over the long run, we'll never 155 00:10:46.279 --> 00:10:50.480 know. But given the strength of how good he was during the only time 156 00:10:50.519 --> 00:10:54.879 he was healthy, that's why I put RG three in green. So when 157 00:10:54.919 --> 00:10:58.120 we look at some of these quarterbacks coming out in it's going to be an 158 00:10:58.159 --> 00:11:03.679 ongoing debate and discussion until the Broncos are actually on the clock and we see 159 00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:09.759 what they do at twelve. But just for conversation purposes, let's just say 160 00:11:09.799 --> 00:11:16.279 the Broncos select bon Nicks. What do you think that his outlooking projection would 161 00:11:16.279 --> 00:11:20.960 be as a member of the Denver Broncos under Sean Payton. I'll give you 162 00:11:22.200 --> 00:11:26.080 the pessimistic perspective, so a channel Ben in that regard, and then I'll 163 00:11:26.120 --> 00:11:31.559 try to change you and give you the optimism history sense. You're looking at 164 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:35.080 roughly a seventy two percent bus rate if we take him at twelve, and 165 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:37.960 I'm not sold that I would take him at twelve. I'm on board with 166 00:11:39.120 --> 00:11:43.200 trading down as long as if he is your guy, you could get him 167 00:11:43.240 --> 00:11:46.639 at a later spot where someone doesn't sweep up and take him from underneath you. 168 00:11:46.039 --> 00:11:50.919 So historically speaking, it's not a probable situation, but if you want 169 00:11:50.919 --> 00:11:54.519 it to be optimistic, I would say this in favor of Bonex. His 170 00:11:54.679 --> 00:12:00.600 sixty one starts are an all time NCAA record, so we're talking unprecedented experience 171 00:12:00.799 --> 00:12:05.120 as a starting quarterback. He played college football so long that he faced both 172 00:12:05.240 --> 00:12:09.080 Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert during his first year of college football, and Joe 173 00:12:09.080 --> 00:12:13.039 Burrow will turn twenty eight years old before the end of the regular season, 174 00:12:13.159 --> 00:12:16.159 so he's had a lot of experience. Last year, he set the NCAA 175 00:12:16.240 --> 00:12:22.279 single season completion percentage record at seventy seven point five percent. So we know 176 00:12:22.399 --> 00:12:26.840 that Drew Brees set the NFL single season completion percentage record four times in two 177 00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:30.320 thousand and nine, twenty eleven, twenty seventeen, and then he broke his 178 00:12:30.360 --> 00:12:33.559 own record in twenty eighteen. So the strength of what I see from Bonnicks 179 00:12:33.600 --> 00:12:39.200 on tape is past accuracy and information processing are his two greatest strengths, and 180 00:12:39.240 --> 00:12:43.039 that's something that you want to look for in a system similar to what Sean 181 00:12:43.080 --> 00:12:46.960 Payton runs. He has good course skills. There are no individual traits that 182 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:50.080 you would say pop off the charts. But if you're looking for a guy 183 00:12:50.120 --> 00:12:56.399 who on paper is coachable, bo Nix would be the guy. Yeah, 184 00:12:56.480 --> 00:13:00.919 it's interesting. He has been around a really long time. As a matter 185 00:13:00.960 --> 00:13:03.360 of fact, he shared a quarterback room with Jared Stinham, who's already here 186 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:09.000 on the roster here in Denver, back when they were both back when they 187 00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:11.200 were both at Auburn. You go back quite aways. I think I'm trying 188 00:13:11.200 --> 00:13:15.039 to remember his recruiting class was twenty eighteen, I believe it. I'm trying 189 00:13:15.080 --> 00:13:18.919 to remember what the other quarterbacks were that were in that class. I'm blanket 190 00:13:18.919 --> 00:13:24.320 at the moment, but it was. You know, it's just it has 191 00:13:24.360 --> 00:13:26.000 been a long time, and you know that's the thing. I think, 192 00:13:26.039 --> 00:13:31.480 if you've got that much experience, I think that can be a good thing. 193 00:13:31.559 --> 00:13:33.120 I thought that would benefited Mahomes when he was coming in the league, 194 00:13:33.159 --> 00:13:35.559 even though he sat for a while, because he'd had that many dropbacks to 195 00:13:35.639 --> 00:13:39.159 kind of, you know, understand what defense were thrown at him. My 196 00:13:41.480 --> 00:13:45.879 I guess diving a little deeper on this, is there a success rate with 197 00:13:45.919 --> 00:13:48.200 getting more reps at college versus a bus rate with getting least, is there 198 00:13:48.200 --> 00:13:52.559 any correlation in that data. Off the top of my head, I wouldn't 199 00:13:52.559 --> 00:13:56.879 be able to tell you, because you have quarterbacks like Cam Newton who played 200 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:01.000 significantly little college football, then he stepped right into the league and was a 201 00:14:01.000 --> 00:14:03.879 playmaker as a rookie in twenty eleven. So you're going to find examples on 202 00:14:03.919 --> 00:14:07.279 both ends of the spectrum of quarterbacks who did well without a lot of college 203 00:14:07.320 --> 00:14:11.799 football experience and quarterbacks who did well having a lot of college football experience. 204 00:14:11.840 --> 00:14:15.919 So I think you need to look at each quarterback on a case by case 205 00:14:15.960 --> 00:14:18.679 basis and evaluate them for who they are and all defer to what you've been 206 00:14:18.720 --> 00:14:22.240 saying for the past few weeks. If Sean Payton believes that bo Nix is 207 00:14:22.240 --> 00:14:26.480 his guy, you could take him at twelve. If you want to be 208 00:14:26.559 --> 00:14:30.440 smart, you could trade back a little bit and get him there. But 209 00:14:30.519 --> 00:14:35.120 I think, in my opinion, that would be a safer move versus mortgaging 210 00:14:35.200 --> 00:14:39.759 your future for the possibility of getting a JJ McCarthy, because even if JJ 211 00:14:39.840 --> 00:14:43.919 McCarthy is everything that we hope for him to be, it's not probable that 212 00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:48.679 he would find success If he's walking into another awful situation. Worst case scenario, 213 00:14:48.759 --> 00:14:54.080 the Broncos don't have one of these top quarterbacks and they decided to like 214 00:14:54.120 --> 00:15:00.960 I told ben im Nat Shimlana's and do something entirely different. Can this team 215 00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:09.879 be successful without a top ten quarterback? And they yes? Are they likely 216 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:13.320 to? No? But we could even look back to last season as an 217 00:15:13.320 --> 00:15:16.399 example. Look at what Pittsburgh did. Tenny Pickett was amongst the worst performing 218 00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:20.440 quarterbacks in the NFL. He finished the year twenty seventh and passer rating twenty 219 00:15:20.480 --> 00:15:26.080 seventh and adjusted net yards per attempt, but the defense ranked sixteen point surrendered. 220 00:15:26.200 --> 00:15:30.840 So that's a great way to remedy limitations at the quarterback position. If 221 00:15:30.879 --> 00:15:35.240 we go back to our twenty fifteen Super Bowl winning squad, Peyton Manning was 222 00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:39.279 a shell of his former self. We know about the lack of touchdown passes, 223 00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:43.480 We know about the interceptions, and that's familiar territory. What people might 224 00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:46.200 not be as familiar with is that Peyton Manning led the league in fourth quarter 225 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:50.039 comeback his final year if you include the postseason, he had a perfect one 226 00:15:50.159 --> 00:15:54.120 hundred and fifty eight point three passer rating on fourth down attempts. He ranked 227 00:15:54.159 --> 00:15:58.720 eighth in the NFL and TAC percentage, So there were a lot of situational 228 00:15:58.840 --> 00:16:03.000 splits where Manning real did deliver in the clutch. So, with the support 229 00:16:03.039 --> 00:16:04.919 of a great defense, if you have a quarterback who's able to come through 230 00:16:04.919 --> 00:16:08.279 in big moments, sure it's possible that you could win. It's not likely, 231 00:16:08.399 --> 00:16:12.799 but it's possible. Ryan. One of the things I has fascinated me 232 00:16:12.840 --> 00:16:17.399 before we let you go here is is worse to first turnarounds? Could the 233 00:16:17.440 --> 00:16:18.759 Denver Broncos do that? I mean, right now they're projection five and a 234 00:16:18.759 --> 00:16:23.360 half wins next year. Is there any data out there you can maybe acquire 235 00:16:23.440 --> 00:16:27.200 for us that kind of gives us what common denominators there are and teams going 236 00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:30.200 from worse to first in their division, you know, a year over year. 237 00:16:30.919 --> 00:16:33.200 Absolutely, damn, let's do it all right? That sounds like to 238 00:16:33.240 --> 00:16:38.120 play. Ryan Michael, writer analysts the Pro Football Hall of Fame, always 239 00:16:38.159 --> 00:16:40.279 love having him on the show.