You know, the increase to the PPI. We were saying all along,
it's going to be higher because you know, it's the increases not because of
actual growth in the economy, but it's just inflationary costs. And you could
see that, you know, with the core PPI. I mean, that
just kind of solved the riddle. If you will, you're listening to Carrie
Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere
else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network now
more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter
and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, And welcome you are
listening to watching the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Letz.
Hey, we're almost at mid March here. In fact, we are at
mid March. You were taken day. We just got exciting news on the
PPI increase, and what a shocker. Turns out inflation is not so transitory.
What is transitory? Is there sound bites and their explanations as to why
inflation is transitory? But ed Sidell is here with us to to explore and
understand exactly what's going on here. Ed great to have you back on the
show. So no surprise for avam me. Hey, of course, no
surprises on this pp I number, is there? No, no, anybody
who was acting shocked, just you know, they're not paying attention. You
know, the the increase to the PPI, we were saying all along,
it's going to be higher because you know it's the the increase is not because
of actual growth in the economy, but it's just inflationary costs. And you
could see that, you know, with the core PPI. I mean that
that just kind of solved the riddle if you will. Oh yeah, hey,
so looking at this thing, excuse me, sure, sure, looking
at the numbers here and everything else. You know, look, airline pilots,
they've gotten forty to sixty percent increases, light attendance forty sixty percent increases.
I know they don't theoretically produce anything, but clearly, clearly prices are
going up. Yeah, you know, I mean it's it's that old minimum
wage argument, right, I mean, we have to continue to raise the
minimum wage so people can you know, survive and you know, have increase
their standard living. But you know that affects everything all the way across the
board, and that holds true. So we're talking about you know, airline,
the pilots and flight attendants, you know, as it relates to transportation,
and then you know, when we look at the teamsters, you know,
all of these things, you know, as wages increase. This is
all inflation and this is really what's affecting the PPI. And honestly, Carrie,
I'm shocked. I'm shocked when I just heard today that you know,
they were within the Fed's target of that two percent, which is arbitrary.
But that's topic for another day. But it's just like the jobs numbers,
you know, they they inflate them and then they revise them down the words.
You know, you've got pal who wants to, you know, have
unemployment up. And everyone's relating to what we're seeing right now. Very similar
to to two thousand and eight, you know, but there's some major differences
when we talk about inflation. You know, number one, unemployment, right
it was in I think it was it was in the seventh I would say
seven point three. I can't remember exactly what it was in two thousand and
eight, and now it's in the threes. But you know, the big
difference is the underemployed. You know, if we had in that under employed
number, it's you know significant under unemployment is actually significantly higher now than it
was in eight. But the big factor is inflation. And so you know,
when the Feds are it seems like that old adage, right, there's
lies, there's damn lies, and there's statistics. So so everyone's kind of
adding in the numbers that they want to be able to prove their point instead
of looking at the overall picture. And if you look at the overall picture,
the math it just you know, it continues not to work. Yeah,
exactly, And who do they think they're kidding? That's what I'd like
to know. But obviously they think you're kid. They're kidding you and me,
right, yeah, And you know, I I was just sitting the
other day that the disparity between the haves and the have nots, or you
know, the Main Street and Wall Street, that gap is getting bigger and
bigger. I was just looking at a survey they came out. It said
that the loans all four one case, they have increased thirty percent and and
the meaner for the in the survey, there was the top five things,
right, but the top two. The number one reason people have been taking
out loans on four to one k's was to prevent foreclosure, right. The
number two was to cover medical bills so that they could maintain treatment. And
so this goes back to you know the stats that came out last October that
said that forty nine percent of Americans at the end of every month there's not
enough money, so they're living on credit cards, and you know, we're
we hit all time debt highs as far as credit cards, I think now
the average credit card rate is over twenty four percent. I think it's like
twenty four point six percent now average, right, So some are hires someone
a little bit lower, but that's the average. And the average household dead
is over one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So when people talk about,
you know, the economy is strong and you know the PPI numbers, you're
really have to look at what's really going on in the world around us that
say, yeah, you know that's it's not accurate. Definitely not accurate.
And we know this for sure. We see that, you know, personal
income is lagging debt in the GDP numbers, right, significant yeah, by
a long shot. How long can that go on for? Man? I
you know what, I think we're pretty close to that breaking point. You
know, we talked about this last year. You know, I've been talking
about this debt bubble. We're ads we're so close to a point where,
you know, at what point is no longer sustainable. I heard today one
of the pundits on on one of the financial shows saying that I don't mean
to be a permable, but if you look at all the numbers, this
bull market is not, you know, going to end any time in the
near future. I think people are looking at what's going on in the market
as far differently than what's going on or as the same as what's going on
in real life. There are so many family struggling there is they're going to
hit that wall. And we saw this in seven and o eight going into
nine, where when people start hitting the wall, which means they have no
money, they know that they're going to file for bankruptcy or whatever it is.
They continue to run up, you know, their debt, whether it's
a home equity, line of credits or credit guards or or whatever it is.
And I think the way that it's going right now, based on the
data that I'm seeing, it's very similar to what we saw in eight.
And you know, again that narrow window we have, I think it's it's
closing rapidly. You know, who knows whether it's the summer or next fall,
but it's, uh, it's closing, definitely closing. And like we
say, how how how much longer can it really happen? Yeah? And
you know, I continue to to look at all of the numbers because you
did. There's so much conflicting data, you know, there's so much white
noise. You know, when we're talking with clients, you know, educating
them and helping them understand that. You know, last year the biggest rise
you know, in the indices was based on the Super seven, Magnificent seven,
whatever you want to call it. And then it was, you know,
the Fabulous four. And when we're looking at it this year, it's
it's it's really three companies you've got in video. I think yesterday it hits
well into the nines, nine hundred dollars per share, and you've got Meta
and Amazon that are really propping everything up. And and so now when you
start to see this, you fork feeling, oh my gosh, I'm going
to miss out. And you know, hey, if you have any cash
shitting on the sidelines, now is the time to get in before you miss
out. Uh. You know that's when you start really pulling back. That's
when you really start need to be a contrarian saying, you know what,
there's something else, bigger afoot. I don't think between now and the election,
barring some unforeseen incidents. You know that's quote unquote black swan event,
whether it's China, Taiwan, god forbid, a Gazza type incident. Here
in the US banking collapse, I mean ranking collapse. You just read my
notes, Yes, because we're starting to see those right banking commercial loans.
I saw report Monday or Tuesday this week and it said nearly ten of all
commercial loans are either past thirty days or have engaged into some special servicing agreement
with the lenders. Me think about that, I mean, those are that
that's a big number. So you know, you've got all of the these
loans that are coming due, and now with as that credit continues to tighten,
you know, these borrowers they're not going to be able to qualify like
they did and so they're gonna have to pay a higher rate. And now
with the majority of these loans where they're my mind just went black, where
you know, they they're not on the hook anymore. They could just walk
away and be free and clear. I you know, I think we're gonna
start seeing more and more of that, and that's gonna the dominoes will continue
to fall off. Yeah, and the dominoes are falling now, right,
So again, how much longer can it really continue? You know, I
don't know. I think it's going to be short lived. A recourse That's
what I was talking about. So you know, these recourse and no recourse
loans where they don't have to go after them, and and I think as
these I mean, we just saw with black Rock, right, black Rock,
they had a couple of non recourse loans on the buildings and they walked
away. Some of the world's largest reachs, I mean, they're everyone.
So these are the top of the food chain and they're walking away from their
obligations. So imagine what Main Street is is going to start doing. Yeah,
I can't even begin to think here. It's It's scary, isn't it
It is? It is, And I don't you know, I try to
look at you know, not glass half full or half empty. I'm you
know, I'm just always happy to just have a glass, right. And
if we look at this the right way, with all the bad news that's
coming out, if your positioned properly, you know, when when things kind
of flip upside down, as they always do because it's cyclical, you know,
there there's an opportunity to do well. But my fear is so many
people have been talked into we got to get all the way and let's go
all into the market right now. And I think there's going to be a
huge shift in wealth, or a continual shift in wealth, I should say.
All right, So, hey, when Powell was giving his speech to
Congress, you also mentioned that there were going to be more bank failures.
Did you catch that I did? I did, Yes, yep. So
when on of it, if he's even saying it, then we got a
problem uston. Well, absolutely, And you know Jamie Diamond originally said we're
fine, there's nothing to worry about, and he came out at the end
of last year and said he's concerned and brought it up in January of this
year when Pale says it if you there's a couple of rating services that actually
rate banks. I mean, you can win. And you look at the
number of banks that have a uh C D or E ratings. They don't
have an f right, it's C D or E. It is significantly higher
than it was a year ago, and it's more than double than it was,
you know, even three years ago. So that's telling the dark side
of the story where everything is continuing to head in the fact that Pale actually
said it on Ryan with t Television there, Yeah, that don't know it's
coming down the pipe, right, because he wouldn't even admit to inflation.
Everything was transitory until he's like, oh wait a minute, I got to
back out of it. So that that kind of tells that's a sign of
things to come. And now he's saying you shouldn't be demonizing Trump enthusiasts or
Trump supporters too. I mean, it's a little strange, isn't it.
Yeah, you know, I didn't. I'm still trying to figure that out.
Is he saying that because hey, I need to make sure I want
to keep my job and he thinks that, you know, the election is
going to go one way versus the other. Because I thought that that was
so misplaced. I just thought that that was a very odd comment to me,
didn't you. Yeah, he hasn't exactly been a friend of the Republican
Party. And we're not talking politics here, I'm just saying, what does
it mean? And I guess he sees the handwriting on the wall, doesn't
he. Yeah, yeah, I mean, without a doubt. And I
think a lot of people are truly getting fed up with the lip service,
and you know, because they're feeling the pain every day every time they get
their check. It's not enough. And you know, healthcare costs are going
up. I mean, look at the cost of insurance. Did you see
that auto insurance again? Another quarter in a row. Car insurance? Tell
me about it. I know, I just got my bill, and you
know, I have the most expensive car there is to ensure, and I'm
in the most expensive state for car insurance, Florida. And man, it's
like, it's crazy, But what are you supposed to do lower year?
Well, you got the doubletals. Yeah, you got the double whammy with
Hololners insurance going through the roof down there, you know, And this is
this is telling us when you start seeing howners insurance and car insurance. You
know that property and can the go up as high as it is? You
know, there's what that's saying is the cost of materials, you know,
to rebuild these homes. You know, everything is is inflationary. So they
know what's really going on because it's it's being felt by you know, everyday
folks like you and me. Yeah, isn't that the truth? Man?
All right? So now the big question ed, and this is why you
get the big bucks. What are you supposed to do? Gold? Bitcoin?
Uh? You know, Will Rogers, I've said this before, always
said invest in inflation. It's the only thing going up, right, That's
right, That's right. You know I do love hard assets, you know,
gold, gold stocks, gold mining stocks. But the actual physical you
know, precious metals I get. I've been a fan of I have heard
for thirty plus years. You know, real estate, residential you know,
because rents continue to go up. You know, that's that's a very very
tough market to buy into right now. So you know, having those assets.
I really still don't like commercial markets and won't for a long time as
it relates to to real estate. But you know, be smart, position
yourself, have a diversified portfolio. And the closer you get to the election,
boy, I'll tell you what, man, I would start taking chips
off the table and and you know, ride the storm out and when things
get a little bit lower, that's that's when you make your money. Is
buying back in on I hate to say on the dips because that is going
to underestimate it. But you know, I think that's really what's going to
happen no matter who's elected in November. Yeah. I could not agree with
you more. And what's your take on bitcoin? You believe? All right?
So full disclosure. I own bitcoins and ethereum, and I've always looked
at it more as I'm going to catch a lot of flak for this,
I've always looked at it more as a lottery ticket. Okay, you know,
being able to get in at an early time, but buying in now
it's kind of like Nvidia, right you know, are how close are we
to the top? I mean when when we go from you know, eleven
thousand too. I didn't see what it was today, but I know it
hit close to seventy three thousand right now. It's estimated that you know it's
going to hit one hundred thousand, So is there enough enough juice for the
squeeze between now and then? Normally I would probably be a believer, except
for the fact that you've got United States buying into it. You've got you
know, these major institutions like at JP, Morgan, Wells, far a
lot of these major banks are buying into bitcoin. So that's telling me that,
you know, it's probably going to be a little bit more regulated and
it could wind up being another fiat currency like the US dollar. Yeah,
well, it's a little bit different because in theory actually in fact, until
they figure out another way, and the quantity of bitcoin in the world is
fixed, and that is the difference between a dollar and a bitcoin. And
you know, do I think it's a little out of hand. Yeah,
but it's training at record levels. It's over seventy thousand, down a little
bit today on the March fourteenth, down two percent, big deal, but
it made a new high. You know, got to see it break seventy
five thousand. If I think if it breaks seventy five thousand, I think
it's a load up, the load up the digital wallet moment. You know
what, I agree? I think seventy five is if that's the breakthrough.
I think we could see another parabolic you know, increase. And you know,
I don't think one hundred thousand is out of range by any stretch,
you know, as far as buys, I'm kind of looking at bitcoin and
the theorem is the difference wing golden solar, right, you know, e
theorem is is a little bit financially more palatable for for people to buy into.
And I think that the theorem is going to go along with it.
But by without a doubt, Bitcoin is the standard. It really is.
But I did hear rumors that they, you know, instead of it being
finite, that they were going to you know, increase the amount of coins.
So I I I read that too, but it's really not possible to
do without the consent of all the nodes. Oh that is that? How
long? Okay? Yeah, so I really not that with allier if you
are? Yeah, yeah, interesting, well, interesting times, Eddie.
Tell us where do we find you? How do we connect with you?
E g. S I Financial dot com. That is the best place to
find us. You've got all of our contact information, our podcasts, our
interviews like like this, they're they're all on our website. And yeah,
so Thank you very much. Hey, you got a question for Ed or
myself k L. Carrie lets dot com. Emails are welcome, and while
you're at our site Financial Survival Network dot com, sign up for your free
newsletter at appreciate you coming on and we'll talk to you again. So great.
Thank you very much, I appreciate it. Thanks for listening to Carrie
Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,