Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today
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out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone, Welcome to another
episode of Eyes on Weekly, reasonably well informed discussion of geopolitical events and about
the time it takes you to drive to work or pt whatever else you get
up to. In about thirty minutes. I'm Andy Milburn, former Marine Infantry
Special Operations officer, former CEO of the Mozart Group, longtime student of modern
war. Not here today is Jason Lyons, who is waiting back surgery.
You know we should do a whole episode D on veterans problems with bags.
No, actually, on second thoughts, let's not do that an entire series.
But anyway, does it delighted obviously to have d who is my who
is our producer and my boss d O over to you? Thanks? Andy,
I appreciate your boss. I don't know about that. I don't think
I'm anybody's boss, to be honest, I just wanted to make up what
do you have for us today? I mean it's the big The big news
is the uh, you know, retaliatory strikes on the IRGC and connected militias
and stuff. It's been pretty busy, so yeah, one hundred percent.
So bring to bring everyone up to speed in case, you know, for
some reason you got horrendously drunk around noon yesterday and slept through the whole thing.
Of the United States conducted reportedly eighty five strikes on four separate targets in
Iraq and Syria, and these figured out here how to no, actually I
figured this out how to share a screen. This is this is an I
sw map. Don't worry, guys, we're not going to get very geeky
in academic hit. But it drives me up the wall and we talk about
places and we don't have a map to point to. This is this pretty
good map of the Iraq Syria Iraq Jordan border. These strikes that it shows
here actually militia strikes on US basis as of late January, and they show
they show strikes according to how many occurred frequency, and you'll see Ala Sartz.
Maybe you remember Alisade was a great rocket magnet back in the day when
we were there and continues continues that tradition. Of course, that's a massive
base. But when you have much smaller bases there like Al Tanf and the
little circle there marked Rookman is actually Tower twenty two, strikes have a much
greater effect. D I'm gonna you can see yeh look, okay, perfect,
all right, So the strikes went in. There's a couple of places
that many of your listeners will be familiar with. All right, And don't
beat me up if I'm not getting in exactly right, but our cime roughly
here. Then across the border in Syria there's a place called Abu Kamal,
both of which have been acting, as you know, kind of bases or
depots for the for the Iranian Back to PMCs, some of you will have
seen on Twitter very traumatic secondary explosions here in our cime. I would offer
this and we'll talk about it, you know, in a moment deeper.
It would have to be very very stupid people who were left in those depots
or those areas you know, the US that they hit commander control facilities there,
but also in the weapons storage deep and that's where you saw the secondary
explosions from. I would offer that whatever was in those warehouses was probably discarded
or deliberately left, maybe because they didn't have time to move it, or
because they wanted to provide just a dramatic show to the United States and hopefully
assuaged some of the bloodlust that is influencing our domestic politics. Knows, but
unlikely that. Oh yeah, so those are two of the strikes. There
was another one up in Dariza. It's still in Darazar Province and the Euphrates
River again. You know, I may get beaten up if this is off
target, but it's it's somewhere around here. And then there's a place called
Akashad in Iraq, very close to the very close to the you know,
the tri border region, roughly where I'm putting my cursor here. Akashad.
That's been a long time Iranian militia staging point. And interestingly enough, you
know this is the heavily Sunni area of Iraq, right and you know,
so the P and C very deliberately have set up fortified areas there and that
is that is what we we have attacked. Heydep. But I've got to
read out this one quote. You know, we do ourselves no favor,
no favors at all globally. How do you think the world's population are going
to react? In many many of our audiences saying they don't give a shit.
But you know, when we talk about the information campaign, we've got
this guy who run a rather up uninspired morning moment this morning, said,
this is Lieutenant General Douglas A. Simms, director of the military's Joint Staff.
All right, that's a primary position. The beauty of the American bomber
is that we can strike anywhere in the world at the time of our choosing.
All right, shapes a doctor strange for rights, you know, comments
slight the beauty. Strangely enough, the world's population is probably not in rapture
about the beauty of the American bomber, and we probably need to be a
little more cognizant about how we portray that, you know. And and it
goes on the usual staff guy by a strikes, targeting, command and control
operations, intelligence centers, weapons facilities, and bunkers, you know, the
usual rundown think about those, right, A key thing. They didn't say
key personnel. Right, they didn't say, hey, we're you know,
we're going after these guys. Yeah, it's interesting and you know because previously
we did when we hit Solmoney and by the way, when we hit Solmany
back in twenty twenty, the guy who was killed with him was a guy
named Mahindas was kind of his warning. He was head of guitar PSBOLLA.
All right, so you see how all this, you know, all of
this comes together, and you will see in today's news a couple of very
in Iraq, you know, some couple of interesting points. Okay, So
first of all, you know that their chart. The head of their armed
forces has come out and made a very a very angry statement about US violation
when he US foundation of the Iraqi sovereignty, and so has the Prime Minister,
saying that the casualties reported casualties from eighty five strikes, which were a
total of sixteen people killed in thirty four I believe wounded. Who knows,
you know, I think six wounded, thirty six. Yeah, In any
case, he's saying the USO's compensation to these people. The US is saying
that they were PMC militia. PMC militia are probably thinking, damn, what
the hell are these guys doing there? Maybe they didn't get the word,
you know, it's right, right collection. But so the Iraqi government is
up in arms. But let's let's look at what's happened a little bit in
the last few days. All right, on the twenty right, the strike
occurred on twenty eight January. All right. Immediately, you know, there
were comments from the administration and we're going to you know, find out who
did this. We're going to strike back. On twenty nine January, a
guy named sorry, that's my dog, that's okay, Yeah, twenty nine
January a guy named Brigadier General Ghani Ishmael Ghani, who is head of Koutzvous,
visits Baghdad. All right, all this is you know, obviously,
what I'm telling you is open source. I'm not going to the day after,
right, the day after the basis day after right, And he meets
with the head of Katab Has Bolla all right, who is also the chairman.
He has an official Iraqi position as chairman of the PMC. Okay,
the popular Militia working two jobs. Man, it's not easy out there with
all right, has Buller all right, remember he still had it, Katab
Has Buller man's three brigades in the Iraqi army. You see how this is
all linked, right, it gets worse. So this guy and I'll remember,
you know, I'll remember this moment. Muhammad Ahwi is his last name,
and he's called al khal all right, Muhammad Ali, remember that name.
Twenty nineteen US embassy was attacked by Popular Mission Militia members PMF members.
They actually overran the compound and they left graffiti. All right, there's photographs
of graffiti, a manga graffiti left. There was this guy's name, Al
Cahl, all right. They were doing it in his name. So now
you know head of Katabas Bala, headed PMC, official position in the Iraqi
government, Iraqi armed Forces actually under the m I. Now you know,
he is meeting with Ghani and so speculating here, all right. Ghani tells
him, hey, not this, shiit off, fellas you're getting you know,
you're gonna get us in trouble to big Satan, you know, or
tone it down or whatever. The next day, right thirty January, Katabisbola
comes out and says, hey, you know we're gonna we're not gonna hit
us targets. Now. It's very subtle and smooth, geopolitical like yeah,
maneuvering. Yeah, all right, so here's a price release. We're not
gonna hit anything anymore, we promise. Yeah, that's that's that's exactly right.
By the way, Jordanian F sixteen's participated in this strike yesterday. Jordanian
government is being noncommittal about that, but yeah they did. You know,
normally these strikes when the Jordanians revolved, are more than symbolic, and you
know they they have struck before in Syria two or three times a right,
not I mean, these are strikes going after Iranian backed smugglers. So you
know, my point is that they're on board too. But but of course
we weren't gonna launch from Jordan, and does make Jordan even more of a
target than already is. That's why you know the B once took off from
from Lake And yes, I saw the two B one the two B one
b's were in on it and a ten fighter and attack aircraft. So there
were a couple of Jordani and F sixteen's, But like I saw that they
were eight tens too. Where those where, like the US assets taken off
from besides the bombers. Wait, did you say that at a tens?
That's what I saw on Twitter yesterday. Yeah, that they were a tens
involved in it. I would be well, that's okay, let's let's get
that out of the listeners. Maybe we can hear it. Update on that,
correct US if I'm wrong. But I did see it that a tens
were in it. But where would those Where would US fighters or attack aircraft
launch from? Well? The UK? Are they all go from the UK?
Okay? I don't know. You know, I'm not my my sources
here. I have to be open source, and I don't know, but
I was tracking ocent Intel, you know, on on Twitter when they took
off from lacoln Heath, but I didn't. Yeah, but it wasn't that
just the b ones? I think the b ones? Yeah? Yeah,
So anyway, it doesn't Yeah, anyway, it doesn't matter. I'm more
interested in what happens at the point and not where the fuck that took off
from and what what happened in the point end. You know, we've got
to say looks, looks I don't want to say symbolic, but again,
you know, eighty five strikes sounds very it sounds like a really concerted effort.
But when you look at all the telegraphing that took place before that,
it would be absolutely amazing if if that delta blow to the Iranian milicious capability.
And this is the point here, d is you know, if we're
not doing something that is really undermining UH adversaries capability. Remember we talked about
this and I said, a comprehensive strike not in Iran, but Iraq Anceria
taking out Okay, that that middle to upper level tier Koon's force guys who
are who are operating outside country. You know that there's all kinds of reasons
why that would be a good move. I'm surprised we didn't do that.
I'm surprised that that we telegraphed this. Okay, the same day, all
right, back to the timeline the same day, you know we're talking about
when Ghani visits. Back that same day again, Kirby talks to the press.
He says that, you know, we're gonna we're going to definitely strike
Iran. It's gonna be I forget the term he used, but a multi
lad something along that attack. It's but it's not gonna be a He didn't
say, come out and say it's not gonna be Iron itself. Although you've,
by the way, you owe me twenty dollars he has. You know
you owe me twenty dollars. Min, we'll get back to this, okay,
Okay, put a pin in that. No, they have not.
Yeah, anyway, the point is the very clearly messaging by omission that they
were not going to strike around itself. Okay. And so when you think
about it, and when you're saying, hey, I'm going to come after
you, I'm going to come after you, I'm going to you know,
really hit your eyr GC dudes, and he keeps saying that, and there's
only a certain number of locations, and you know, the Orenians know that
we know blah blah blah. So it's very hard to avoid the perception that
this is pantomime. I'm not saying it was pantomime. I'm saying that that's
sadly, the perception is right, and that is not what I'm sure the
administration wants the American public to think. So I think, you know,
there's there's a little bit of strategic communication that has to follow this, and
you know in other areas too. You may have seen the report today.
Remember last time you asked me about the uh, the attack, right,
And the reason why I'm talking about this is because it's not to it's not
to get some poor bastard punished who's now struggling with his conscience and you know,
and omission and and and seeing a result in the loss of US life.
By no means am I trying to hauln that guy in front of a
firing squad. But it is important, obviously to you know, to close
any any gaps, and drone and counter drone warfare is so dynamic that you've
constantly got to be closing these gaps and and so that's why this comment that
the the the attack drone came in on the heels of the US drone.
It deserves being dug into sensibly, I'll tell you it doesn't make sense to
me. And again please correct me, guys. But I all our type
three and above drones have our US have what's called an if F transponder.
All right, that's identification friend or foe. It's andy. Let me ask
you real quick. Type three or four. Is that like military grade or
like CIA. No, it's all on size all right, fight one or
two. I kind of think of them as more very tactical drones used by
tactical units. Right. This drone, by all accounts, was a longer
range loi F minission one way drone it you know, because it was rocket
boosted. That's, you know, one of the few things we know about
it. It's likely to have been a shah had one thirty six, but
there are other things that could have been too. It doesn't matter. It's
definitely an Iranian manufacturer. And that I say that because only the Iranians the
only such loiter ammunitions in the hands of militias. Whether that Huthis or whether
that they're PMF in Iraq. The only ones are arena of Iranian manufacturer.
That gets back to my point of intent is almost irrelevant when it comes to
Iran in this case, because Iran has enabled these groups to be able to
strike the United States and so but interestingly enough y and there's points again to
the US administration's keenness not to escalate. There's been very little released about the
drone. It was again one way drone. You know, I mean when
we when we have you know, I've I've seen chemikaze drone wreckage from you
know, big ones like Shahad's all the way down to you know, switchblade
type ones, and they leave wreckage, right, they leave traceable material in
the United States. There's no country in the world that can trace that stuff
better than the United States. And yet very little has been released about this
drone. My speculation here is that is it is indeed Iranian, but the
US is being circumspect about releasing that information because it kind of paints both countries
into a box. Does that make sense, Yeah? Absolutely, yeah.
So getting back anyway to this thing about you know, a drone coming in
by the Shahad coming in behind a US drone doesn't make sense necessarily because you
know, I said most type one of I think Type two drones now have
some kind of IFF transponder. But I may be wrong, and it could
be that this was a primitive security drone, you know, a quad copter,
you know, the US one. There is a task force, task
Force ninety nine that repurposes commercial drones for you military use. You know,
again, this is open sources. There's been interviews done with these guys.
They're based in Ladd and they have something around one hundred drones, none of
which have I f F transponders, and it could maybe it was one of
these drones. My point is this, either this is an important issue.
It's a chink in our armor and we need to fix it. And we're
not going to fix it, if you know, unless we really dig into
it. And I'm sure that the military, the military is onto it.
Well, I mean, if it is indeed the case that it followed in
from a friendly drone, they have to fix it. I mean, we
lost, we lost guys and girls, you know, and and and what
we've gotten some nerves somewhere doing this, like figuring it out, yes,
so, and it's the other interesting thing is and again I mean not being
on the other side of the fence here, so I'm not I'm not laying
I'm not riving pleasure into pulling all this out in the open. It is
painful. But the other thing is that we've got to be we've got to
look hard at our drone defenses. Obviously, at these bases right now.
Typically our drone defenses consist of, you know, a mix of stingers are
either man packed. A stinger is a you know, it's an eighties technology
surface to air man packed missile made famous by US supply of these missiles and
the wood that he did in Afghanistan back in the eighties. Okay, it's
a you know, in its day, it was a very effective weapon.
But you know, bear in mind it's like forty something, it's forty years
old now. When it's mounted on a humby, several of them, mounted
a Humby with you know, fire control system and radar, it's called an
avenger system, all right, and that is typically often what is used in
these bases, and in combined with something that most former most Iraqan and Afghanistan,
that's what you're familiar with, which is called a sea ram. No,
I'm not going to embarrass myself to try and remember what sea ram stands
for. But it's a it's essentially it's essentially a cannon. Right now,
neither the Sea Ram, the Stinger, or the Avenger have ever shot down
a drone in combat on operations. In fact, in fact, the Avenger
hasn't even shot down a drone in you know, in laboratory conditions. And
I'm not an expert at all, and I'm never claimed to be, but
that doesn't seem good. No, it's not good. Okay. So my
point is that you know, we are we're still playing catch up on a
short range of defense. And we do have the Coyote system which I mentioned.
We've got ew systems that are you know, I mean, I'm going
to get into it, but they are they hit and miss effective. But
the problem is that they are easy to adapt against. All right, right,
a system called Coyote which uses drones as counter drone, you know,
the little unmanned systems, and that is you know, again, I'd be
interested to hear from the audience what their opinion is of these things. But
yeah, again, short range air offense, anti drone air offense is a
huge issue for the United States, and we're behind, and we have been
since twenty fifteen when the Islamic State first started using unmanned systems, and everyone
predicated at the time as a matter of time before we started losing people,
all right, And so the attack in Jordan, of course the first the
first time US soldiers have been killed by aviation attacks since April fifteenth, nineteen
fifty three. Yeah, so it was a watershed moment, but it was
it was predictable, and it was long time in coming, and we've got
to fix this, you know, this short range ed offense problem, the
radar that we have there typically you know, the problem is visual acquisition is
really tough with thrums, as we know, especially when you think about it
that you know, the drone came in from the east, launched from Iraq.
It was early in the morning, so it's coming in from behind the
sun, you know. I mean, you're talking about a unit that is
not on a base, that is not on combat footing. You've probably got
dudes gathered around outside the channel hall. It's just fortunate that more people were
not killed, and certainly that's you know that. I'm sure that that has
changed, so visual acquisitions difficult. They did have a radar there. It's
an a n TPS seventy five. It's a uh, it's a phase the
array radar. Okay, I'm not a techie, but a phase array means
you know, it's it can shift focus very quickly. It's a very flexible
system, and it's a very capable system. Again, no one, you
know, no explanation out there why it didn't pick up on this drone.
And again maybe it did and was a mistaken for a friendly one thing.
Of course. You know, I've read in the papers about you know,
the Jordan's requested patriots, which it has, and you know, the there's
the insinuation there that if we had had patriots there then it or you know,
if this was a bit of a patriot range, it wouldn't have happened.
Well maybe maybe not. You know, the patriots are very effective system,
but they also cost three to four million dollars a projectile, right,
and you've got a drone that cost a few thousand dollars. Not exactly,
it cost good. It's not a good match. Also, it kind of
seems like this base was more of a staging base. So it was I
mean, I feel like the security is probably way tighter at bases that like
Jaysuck launches out of, or CI launches out like places like that, compared
to like a staging base at Hell's like support. Yeah, yeah, yeah
exactly, And and and my it gets in my comment last time, I
think about the fact that, yes, going ahead, we are probably going
to see these patterns of small special operations based units. You know, we
used to call them soft forwards. But but the vulnerability is that these small
groups, who are light and flexible and highly trained and well equipped, have
to rely on a larger conventional force, all right, a larger conventional footprint
until we can figure a way around that. We're going to have this vulnerability,
and we need to focus on that because these guys are going to be
the primary target. Why would our enemies go over after the you know,
the hard targets right right getting back to you know, the signaling though,
I mean, you know, twenty nine January, John Kirby talks about the
teared approach, multiple operations and types of targets, and then and then one
February CBS comes out and talks about yeah, it's going to be attacked on
the Iranian BacT militias in Syria and Iraq. So I mean we just couldn't
have been. I mean we did everything but give them, you know,
give them the coordinates. Right. Yeah. So my question for that was,
did we do that on purpose to see where these i IRGC assets went
and like track them there. We spoke about this before we started recording.
I feel like, was it like on purpose or was it like just to
like have them save face, avoid escalation, avoid a lot of human casualties.
I mean it's a great point, and so I yeah, definitely on
purpose, I would say, rather than you know, I think it's rather
political reasons. I think there are unstated red line simplicit red lines, I
hate to use that term, but on both sides here, on both sides
are trying to calibrate their reactions to deter or coerce the other side without tripping
those red lines. All right, So it's this kind of KABOOKI dance,
right, But I don't think it was for intelligence reasons. I think,
and you know, if we want to trace these guys and follow the ants
back to the nest, it's best not to hit them and have them execute
a contingency plan. It's best just to follow them, you know, keep
an eye on them, established pattern of life across the board, be more
circumspect, and then hit them when it's really going to hit them, and
make it such that we are taking a capability off the board here right the
the it does surprise me that we telegraphed it because because it would have been
within the rules, within the unspoken rules of the game. That's literally he
suspects our landscapers have been Russian. Yeah, but I mean it would have
been within the unspoken rules of the game to kill Kud's force guys in Iraq
and Syria, as long as it wasn't in Iran itself, right, right,
that would have been legitimate. So why warn them, you know.
Indeed, on on you know, of two or three days at the end
of January, the Iranians very publicly pulled out they are IRGC operatives from Syria
and Iran, to include a prominent guy in Syria. You know, they
even named him, or he was named, and the Iranians allowed him to
be named. I mean, yeah, that's unprecedented, you know, to
announce it that way and pull them out, and ostensibly, you know,
that was to avoid the Iranians strikes the Uranians have I mean, I'm sorry,
it's Raelies. Israelis have killed IRGC dudes some of these two occasions in
Syria in the last two weeks. So, you know, essensibly it was,
Hey, this is happening, We're going to pull our guys back.
But I can't help wondering if there wasn't another audience, maybe the United States.
Hey guys, we're all clear. Yeah, yeah, go ahead,
we're out. Yeah. The next thing, you know, it's kind of
this crazy it's this weird dance. Yeah. Uh, that kind of makes
no sense to a lot of people. And I understand not trying to escalate
it to like where it's a full fledged regional war, but you know,
it's this weird dance that like a layman person is just just like what why
that doesn't even make sense to like let them know what's going, Like,
what's the point. It's just like a show? Well and his the here's
the challenge now, the I you know, the strikes against the PMC and
the kinetic side of this is almost not worth watching. Right. One hopes
I believe that there is a comprehensive campaign being launched, and the kinetic part
is the kind of the least effective but most visible tip of the iceberg right
right in that campaign involves a lot of stuff in the cyber dimension, cyber
domain. We saw some kind of throw aside, throwaway comments by the Pentagon
that they are doing cyber stuff, and I would imagine that they're doing the
cyber domain is hurting Iran far more than can I hope, so, because
that's a but, I mean, there is that there are you know,
they'll be going after proxy operatives, tracking them with the view probably to taking
them off the playing board, doubtless. Doubtless they are you know, gathering
intel targeting data on coods, forced guys. So there's a lot of you
know a lot of things going on financial. No, we're not just talking
sanctions. They're talking about the Frasery Department really going after in a kind of
forensic financial analysis of these groups to take them out things that the US can
do, you know very well, and hope that all of this is indeed
happening behind the scenes. But that doesn't really make for a good headline,
No, it doesn't exactly. And there is another but there's also you know,
there's another wild card here, need that uh that I know everyone's worried
about the US side and the Iranians too, and that is that those are
these these militia all right, primarily we're talking about the Iranian fact or not
we should I should stop saying that just the uh, the Shia militia in
in Iran, many which are Iranian BacT But the point is Iranian fact does
not secure loyalty in return. You know, Dan himself, the head of
Kuzvals, has said this, and I don't think he's not being completely disingenuous.
Sure, you know, these the these guys, they don't even they're
not even a lot of them aligned the greatest cent religiously with the Republic of
Iran. That's the thing too, it's like a dangerous game they're playing,
right because they'll send them money and weapons, but like, yeah, and
they're not they're not in the command of control for the most part. So
like these guys are basically independent operators that can do whatever they want and inflame
tensions in a region that's already like on fire. Yeah, you know,
absolutely, And so although katab has Bulla and Iran are kind of doing a
disinformation campaign or launching disinformation campaign or information campaign to distance themselves from the attack.
Are the militias in Iran are being very bellicose. And there's one and
I remember its name in a moment, but it's got his baller rolled up
in its title too. But it's a large goods force backed militia, doesn't
have the same headlines as Katari, is buller and has every all the capability
to strike and hurt US forces. So I am concerned about that. I'm
concerned that, yes, we may be relying on Iran to be a rash
acta and that maybe Iran's intention, but within Iran, but first of all,
we can't treat Iran as being homogeneous. You know. Then maybe Somewmaranian
official Submaranean parts of the administration are worried about US response, some aren't.
And one this to Escaline, that's kind of crazy because you would think,
like these guys at the end of the day, their main goal is like
regime security, right Like you would think like I want to stay in power,
I want to still be the you know, whether it's the the animal,
the thing is the I don't think that I don't. It's a long
jump from the from the type of resistance we've seen in Iran to an actual
overthrow of the regime. Sure, and you know, honestly, the stuff
like this going on in the United States being drums and is tending to unite
the Iranian population behind the the regime. You know, like I commented last
time, but but our biggest concern, our greatest concern are you know,
what these militia groups do next. And you know, we we can be
confident that the US will have a calibrated response, but it's going to make
things dicey for US troops seas for some period of time. And I haven't
even mentioned what's happening in the Red seat. So this morning, yeah,
I was just gonna I was gonna mention that too. Yeah, So,
you know, I mean, the US Navy is there is fighting a you
know, I not not nearly as casualty intensive on our side, but it's
fighting almost guat a canal type scenario. I mean, not quite a canal
Okinawa, the scenario you know, where the US Fleet was was during the
first part of that campaign more under attack from the Japanese UH than the Marines,
who were Ashore and the and the US Navy is certainly doing stirling work
out there. But here's an interesting point, all right, the to this,
the ships like the USS Karneie have become I'm saying household names, but
you know, awarded combat action ribbon blah blah blah. You know, this
is like every sailor's dream. But in all seriousness, the concern is this
that previously the Hoothies have very clearly been attacking merchant ships under the thin disguise
that these ships were heading for Israel. In fact, they've attacked forty ships
since seven October, and not one of those was heading for Israel. Well
not one was Israeli owned, So you know it's obviously a very thin veneer
of an excuse. But these latest attacks, the SYNCOM hasn't come out and
said this may may have been aimed at US ships, the drone attacks.
So that's a concern because you know, as much as we may try and
de escalate, you watch the US Navy ship be hit by you know,
a drone, and I mean we we definitely are on the conveyor belt then
more, and that's you know, that's not inconceivable. All right, ships
you know, defenses fail, there's the possibility of a swarm attack. But
in any case, you know, this morning, this is from Sencom Twitter,
February second approximate. Blah blah blah. US Cannee and Gage shot down
one un manned aerial Victory aerial vehicle over the Gulf Bayden. This is the
one that that that I think sant Com his suspecting was aimed actually at the
Kanne who has been a big time name and shooting these things down. So
uh, and and those attacks in the Gulf in the Red seat continue and
haven't made a couple of targets, you know, three weeks of US and
British attacks into into Yemen. I mean you can see, I was just
gonna say that, like, didn't we hit them recently? Like yesterday we
had a couple of such a game of whack them all there. Yeah,
you know what, I think that we did it. We did it specifically
yesterday after we hit UH targets in Syria and Iraq. It's just like,
hey, we could hit you anywhere anytime, it doesn't matter. We can
do multiple times, you know, Richie, Okay, this is you can
take a dog out of Ukraine, but you contact the Ukraine. Yeah,
absolutely. Date. So wait, there's something else I wanted to talk about
before before we before we got off. No, I have to save it
for I have to Oh yeah, yeah, here's the thing. So very
interestingly Iran Iran seems to be if you looked behind the scenes, Iran and
Jordan seemed to be trying to de escalate each other. Okay, there isn't
a lot of chest banging. Jordan has struck targets that are Iranian, mostly
linked with smugglers. Iran now has struck into into Jordan. There's no love
lost obviously between the two countries. But but Iran, for one, we
see Iran is having some problems in the West Bank by all accounts, okay,
as far as getting just getting resistance up and running there in the same
way that Hamas was and Gaza, Iran's access to the West Bank, it
wouldn't have to rely on Jordanian territory. They would never get official Jordanian permission,
but right they don't. They probably don't want to bring attention to smuggling
routes right and out of out of Jordan, or ratchet up detention there because
it's it's going to interfere with our operations going ahead. D I think that's
pretty much it for I got one more question, and my dogging is I
have one more question. Yeah. Uh, would we or any other modern
military be able to move assets without the all centers finding out? Very much?
I think very much unlikely. Okay, even when we move now,
you know, we move the National Mission Force, it's it uh, thanks,
you know, I mean, and I know Jack's very Yeah, you've
got things like you've got the scent and Jack right, I mean yes,
but in all seriousness, so you know, tactically, operationally, strategically,
it's a transparent battlefield that includes all routes to and from the fit of operation.
Yes, we have to rely that everything that we do, every move
is seen. And that might have been the part of the rationale behind us
telegraphing this so openly, the fact that we're not going to be able to
disguise where they're going. Let's cut out the ambiguity, Somner some things we're
going after and run right, right, So what's well, Michael, what's
next? How long will these strikes last? Oh? Hey great, yeah,
you're already only twenty bucks. I don't I don't want to take more
of you. Yeah, so let's not bet on it, you know,
I mean so, so we'll see strikes from days to weeks, all right,
typically and then kind of a leveling off, ratchet down, and then
they'll spike whenever there is another, you know, another act of propogation,
as I said. But but the connecting file under the scenes, out of
you know, the media is not seeing a lot of This is a bunch
of stuff happening in a campaign plan below the level of arm conflict, right
right, include cyber includes some special operations stuff, colvert stuff like yeah,
a lot of the stuff that that I mentioned. So that is that is
what I imagine is going on. Again, this is all speculation. All
my sources are open source. Yeah. Yeah. Andy doesn't spill the tea
in public, he tells me a private No, I'm kidding, I'm kidding.
I'm kidding my security clearance ship. Yeah, I'm totally joking. Sorry,
we'll cut that out. It's fine, don't about it. Uh,
all right, I'm good. You want to yeah, yeah, I mean
yeah, I'll do it. You go ahead, because all right, that
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