WEBVTT

1
00:00:03.000 --> 00:00:06.919
You've spoken honestly about the possibility of
war between US and China in the long

2
00:00:07.000 --> 00:00:11.279
term if no diplomatic solution is found, for example, on the question of

3
00:00:11.320 --> 00:00:15.839
Taiwan and one China policy. How
do we avoid the trajectory where these two

4
00:00:15.880 --> 00:00:22.800
superpowers clash. Well, it's worth
reading that book on the difficult to pronounce

5
00:00:22.960 --> 00:00:28.039
the Acidides trap. I believe it's
called I love war history and say out

6
00:00:28.039 --> 00:00:34.679
and backwards, there's hardly a battle
I haven't read read about, and trying

7
00:00:34.719 --> 00:00:37.960
to figure out what really was the
cause of victory in any particular case,

8
00:00:38.039 --> 00:00:43.039
as opposed to one side or another
claim for the reason both the victory and

9
00:00:43.200 --> 00:00:48.079
what sparked the war. And yeah, yeah, the whole thing. Yeah,

10
00:00:48.200 --> 00:00:51.399
so that Athens and Sparta is classic
case. The thing about the Greek

11
00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:54.520
is that really wrote down a lot
of stuff. They loved writing. You

12
00:00:54.560 --> 00:00:56.520
know, there are lots of interesting
things that happened in many parts of the

13
00:00:56.560 --> 00:00:59.679
world, but they just people didn't
write down, so we don't know what

14
00:00:59.719 --> 00:01:06.079
happen, and or they didn't really
write with in detail. They just would

15
00:01:06.079 --> 00:01:07.879
say like we went, we had
a battle, and we won, and

16
00:01:08.000 --> 00:01:12.480
like what can you add a bit
more? The Greeks, they really wrote

17
00:01:12.480 --> 00:01:18.640
a lot. They're very articulate on
they just love writing, so and we

18
00:01:18.680 --> 00:01:21.760
have a bunch of that writing that's
preserved. So we know what led up

19
00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:30.200
to the Peloponnesian War between the Spartan
and Athenian alliance, and we know that

20
00:01:30.239 --> 00:01:37.680
they for quite they saw it coming. I mean, the Spartans didn't write.

21
00:01:37.799 --> 00:01:40.680
They also weren't very for both by
their nature, but they did right,

22
00:01:40.719 --> 00:01:45.359
but they weren't very for they were
ters. But the Athenians and the

23
00:01:45.400 --> 00:01:49.519
other Greeks wrote a line and they
were like and Spartan was really kind of

24
00:01:49.519 --> 00:01:56.719
like the leader of Greece. But
but Athens grew stronger and stronger with each

25
00:01:56.760 --> 00:02:01.079
passing year, and everyone's like,
well that's inevitable that there's going to be

26
00:02:01.120 --> 00:02:07.439
a clash between Athens and Sparta.
Well how do we avoid that? And

27
00:02:07.480 --> 00:02:09.479
they couldn't. They couldn't. They
actually they saw it coming and they still

28
00:02:09.520 --> 00:02:15.960
could not avoid it. So you
know, at some point, if there's

29
00:02:15.960 --> 00:02:27.400
if one group, one civilization or
country or whatever exceeds another sort of like

30
00:02:27.479 --> 00:02:29.680
if you know, the United States
has been the biggest ki kill in the

31
00:02:29.680 --> 00:02:36.719
block since I think Ground eighteen ninety
From an economic standpoint, so the United

32
00:02:36.719 --> 00:02:43.879
States has been the economic most powerful
economic engine in the world longer than anyone's

33
00:02:43.919 --> 00:02:54.759
been alive. And the foundation of
war is economics. So now we have

34
00:02:54.800 --> 00:03:02.280
a situation in case of China where
the the economy is likely to be two,

35
00:03:02.319 --> 00:03:07.199
perhaps three times larger than that of
the US. So imagine your the

36
00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:09.719
biggest kid in the block for as
long as anyone can remember, and suddenly

37
00:03:09.719 --> 00:03:16.560
a kid comes along, here's twice
your size. So we see it coming.

38
00:03:17.280 --> 00:03:22.919
How is it possible to stop?
Is there some let me throw something

39
00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:27.599
out there, just intermixing of cultures, understanding there does seem to be a

40
00:03:27.639 --> 00:03:30.960
giant cultural gap and understanding of each
other. And you're an interesting case study

41
00:03:31.000 --> 00:03:38.520
because you are an American. Obviously
you've done a lot incredible manufacture here in

42
00:03:38.520 --> 00:03:40.360
the United States, but you also
work with China. I've spent a lot

43
00:03:40.360 --> 00:03:43.840
of time in China. I met
with the leadership many times. Maybig A

44
00:03:43.840 --> 00:03:47.479
good question to ask is what are
some things about China that people don't understand?

45
00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:53.000
Positive just in the culture. What's
some interesting things that you've learned about

46
00:03:53.039 --> 00:04:00.039
the Chinese? Well, your number
of really smart, hard working people in

47
00:04:00.120 --> 00:04:08.599
China is incredible there are I belief
if you say, like how many smart,

48
00:04:08.639 --> 00:04:11.120
hard working people are there in China, there's far more of them there

49
00:04:11.159 --> 00:04:17.199
than they are here. I think, in my opinion, the UH and

50
00:04:17.199 --> 00:04:25.199
they've got a lot of energy.
So I mean, the architecture in China

51
00:04:25.319 --> 00:04:29.639
that's in recent years is far more
impressive than the US. I mean that

52
00:04:29.920 --> 00:04:35.519
the train stations, the buildings,
the high speed rail, everything, it's

53
00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:40.160
really far more impressive than what we
have in the US. I mean,

54
00:04:40.199 --> 00:04:45.240
I recommend somebody just go to Shanghai
and Beijing, look at the buildings and

55
00:04:45.319 --> 00:04:47.720
go to you know, take the
train from Beijing to Chian where you have

56
00:04:47.720 --> 00:04:55.519
the Terracotta warriors. China's got incredible
history, very long history, and you

57
00:04:55.600 --> 00:05:00.120
know, I think arguably the in
terms of the use of language from from

58
00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:05.680
a written standpoint, sort of one
of one of the oldest, perhaps perhaps

59
00:05:05.720 --> 00:05:11.519
the oldest written language. And then
China people did write things down. So

60
00:05:13.879 --> 00:05:18.560
now, China historically has always been, with rare exception, been internally focused.

61
00:05:19.399 --> 00:05:26.040
They have not been acquisitive. They've
they've fought each other. There have

62
00:05:26.040 --> 00:05:30.519
been many, many civil wars in
the Three Kingdoms. War I believe they

63
00:05:30.959 --> 00:05:38.040
lost about seventy percent of their population. So and then so they've had brutal

64
00:05:38.839 --> 00:05:45.360
internal wars like civil wars that make
the US of a war look small by

65
00:05:45.360 --> 00:05:53.480
comparison. So I think it's important
to appreciate that China is not monolithic.

66
00:05:55.519 --> 00:06:00.399
We sort of think of like China's
the sort of one entity of one and

67
00:06:00.399 --> 00:06:05.800
this is definitely not the case from
what I've seen. And I think most

68
00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:11.720
people who understand China would agree that
people in China think about China ten times

69
00:06:11.720 --> 00:06:15.879
more than they think about anything outside
of China. So it's like ninety percent

70
00:06:15.920 --> 00:06:21.800
of their consideration is you know,
are is in tonal? Well, isn't

71
00:06:21.800 --> 00:06:26.800
that a really positive thing? When
you're talking about the collaboration and a future

72
00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:30.720
piece between superpowers, when you're inward
facing, which is like focusing on improving

73
00:06:30.759 --> 00:06:38.120
yourself versus focusing on yeah, quote
unquote, improving others through military might.

74
00:06:38.920 --> 00:06:43.040
The good news the history of China
suggests that China is not inquisitive, meaning

75
00:06:43.040 --> 00:06:46.800
they're not going to go out and
invade a whole bunch of countries. Now,

76
00:06:46.839 --> 00:06:48.560
they do feel very strongly, you
know, So that's that's good.

77
00:06:48.600 --> 00:06:51.560
I mean, because a lot of
a lot of very powerful countries have been

78
00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:57.879
inquisitive. The US is one of
the also one of the rare cases that

79
00:06:57.920 --> 00:07:00.800
has not been inquisitive. After World
War Two, the US could have basically

80
00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:03.680
taken over the world in any country, like we got nukes, nobody else

81
00:07:03.759 --> 00:07:09.160
got nukes. We don't even have
to lose soldiers. Which country do you

82
00:07:09.240 --> 00:07:13.199
want? And the United States could
have taken over everything? Oh wait,

83
00:07:13.439 --> 00:07:17.000
ad will and it didn't. And
the United States actually helped revolt countries.

84
00:07:17.319 --> 00:07:23.040
So it helped rebuilt Europe, you
know, helped rebuilt Japan. This is

85
00:07:23.240 --> 00:07:31.680
very unusual behavior, almost unprecedented.
You know. The US did conspicuous acts

86
00:07:31.680 --> 00:07:41.560
of kindness like the Berlin Airlift,
you know, and I think, you

87
00:07:41.600 --> 00:07:44.519
know, it's always like, well, America has done bad things. Well,

88
00:07:44.560 --> 00:07:46.439
of course America has done bad things. But one needs to look at

89
00:07:46.399 --> 00:07:54.439
the whole track record and just generally, you know, one one sort of

90
00:07:54.519 --> 00:08:01.959
test would be how do you treat
your prisoners of war? Or let's say,

91
00:08:03.160 --> 00:08:05.000
you know, no offense to the
Russians, but let's say you're in

92
00:08:05.040 --> 00:08:09.439
Germany, it's nineteen forty five,
you got the Russian army coming one side,

93
00:08:09.920 --> 00:08:13.360
and you got the French, British
and American armies coming the other side.

94
00:08:13.800 --> 00:08:18.240
Who would you like to be surrendered
to? Like, no country is

95
00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:24.279
like morally perfect, but I recommend
being a POW with the Americans. That

96
00:08:24.319 --> 00:08:31.120
would be my choice, very strongly
in the very much so. And in

97
00:08:31.120 --> 00:08:35.960
fact, one of them, Brown
took, you know, a small guy,

98
00:08:37.600 --> 00:08:43.200
was like, we've got to be
captured by the Americans. And in

99
00:08:43.240 --> 00:08:48.279
fact the ss was under orders to
execute bon Brown and all of the German

100
00:08:48.360 --> 00:08:56.240
rockin issues and they narrowly escaped their
SSI. They said they were going out

101
00:08:56.279 --> 00:08:58.440
for a walk in the woods.
They left in the middle of winter with

102
00:08:58.480 --> 00:09:01.879
no coats, and it ran like
no food, no coast, no water,

103
00:09:03.360 --> 00:09:07.440
and just ran like hell and ran
west and by share like they I

104
00:09:07.440 --> 00:09:13.919
think his brother found like a bicycle
or something and and then just cycled,

105
00:09:13.200 --> 00:09:20.919
where as fasts he couldn't found found
a U. S patrol. So anyway,

106
00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:24.480
that's that's one that's one way you
can tell moralities. Who where do

107
00:09:24.480 --> 00:09:28.039
you want to be a p W. It's not fun anywhere, but some

108
00:09:28.080 --> 00:09:33.759
places are much worse than others.
So anyway, so like America has been,

109
00:09:35.240 --> 00:09:43.879
while far from perfect, generally a
benevolent force, and we should always

110
00:09:43.919 --> 00:09:50.559
be self critical and we try to
be better. But anyone with half of

111
00:09:50.639 --> 00:09:54.440
r knows that. So so I
think there are in this way, China

112
00:09:54.480 --> 00:10:03.200
and the United States are similar.
Neither country has been acquisitive in a significant

113
00:10:03.200 --> 00:10:05.759
way. So that's like a you
know, a shared principle. I guess

114
00:10:07.799 --> 00:10:13.159
now. Now China does feel very
strongly about Taiwan. They've been very clear

115
00:10:13.159 --> 00:10:16.960
about that for a long time.
You know, from this downpoint, it's

116
00:10:18.039 --> 00:10:22.559
it's it would be like one of
the states is you know, not there,

117
00:10:22.639 --> 00:10:26.399
like like Hawaii or something like that, but but more significant than Hawaii,

118
00:10:26.600 --> 00:10:33.600
you know, and Hawaii is pretty
significant for US, so that they

119
00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:41.399
viewed as as as really the that
there's a fundamental part of China, the

120
00:10:41.399 --> 00:10:46.720
island of Formosa now Taiwan that is
not part of China but should be.

121
00:10:48.559 --> 00:10:52.399
And the only reason it hasn't been
is because the US specific fleet and is

122
00:10:52.440 --> 00:10:56.960
there economic power grows and is their
military power grows. The thing that they

123
00:10:56.960 --> 00:11:07.679
are clearly saying is their interests will
you know, clearly be materialized. Yes,

124
00:11:09.080 --> 00:11:18.200
China has been very clear that they
will incorporate Taiwan peacefully or militarily,

125
00:11:18.600 --> 00:11:24.960
but that they will incorporate it from
this standpoint is likely. You know,

126
00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:30.320
something you said about conspicuous acts of
kindness as a geopolitical policy. It almost

127
00:11:30.320 --> 00:11:37.399
seems naive, but I'd venture to
say that this is probably the path forward

128
00:11:37.720 --> 00:11:43.200
how you avoid most wars. Just
as you say, it sounds naive,

129
00:11:43.600 --> 00:11:50.519
but it's kind of brilliant if you
believe in the goodness of underlying most of

130
00:11:50.600 --> 00:11:58.279
human nature. It just seems like
conspicuous acts of kindness can reverberate through the

131
00:11:58.320 --> 00:12:05.279
populace of the country is involved.
Yeah, well, and de escalate absolutely.

132
00:12:05.279 --> 00:12:11.240
So after World War One, the
they made a big mistake. You

133
00:12:11.279 --> 00:12:20.000
know, they basically try to all
the blame on Germany and and and you

134
00:12:20.039 --> 00:12:26.679
know, settled Germany with uh impossible
reparations, and you know, really there

135
00:12:26.720 --> 00:12:28.759
was a lot of blame. There's
a fair quite a bit of blame to

136
00:12:31.240 --> 00:12:35.960
go around for World War One,
but they try to put it all in

137
00:12:35.000 --> 00:12:43.679
Germany, and uh, that was
that that laid the seeds for World War

138
00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:48.759
Two. So that's a lot of
people were not just Hitler. A lot

139
00:12:48.799 --> 00:12:58.480
of people felt wrong and they wanted
vengeance and they got it. People don't

140
00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:05.320
forget Yeah, you can you kill
somebody's father, mother, son, daughter,

141
00:13:05.639 --> 00:13:11.879
They're not gonna forget it. They
will want vengeance. So after World

142
00:13:11.919 --> 00:13:15.399
War two they're like, well,
the treat of us I was a huge

143
00:13:15.399 --> 00:13:24.799
mistake in World War One, and
so this time instead of uh, you

144
00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:30.799
know, crushing the losers, we're
actually gonna help them with the Marshall Plan,

145
00:13:30.919 --> 00:13:37.200
and we're gonna help revolt Germany.
We're gonna help rebold or you know,

146
00:13:37.200 --> 00:13:45.759
Austria and the other you know,
Italy and whatnot. So and that

147
00:13:45.840 --> 00:13:50.960
was the right move. There's a
does feel like there's a profound truth to

148
00:13:52.240 --> 00:13:58.559
uh conspicuous acts of kind as being
an antidote to this. Something missed up

149
00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:03.200
the cycle of versus go violence.
Something must stop it or it will,

150
00:14:03.879 --> 00:14:09.840
you know you it'll, it'll,
it'll never stop. Just eye for an

151
00:14:09.840 --> 00:14:13.759
eye, tooth for a tooth,
limb for a limb, life for a

152
00:14:13.799 --> 00:14:15.519
life, forever and ever,

