Checking out college football on the West Coast. This is Get Off My Pylon,
a look at the PAC twelve and more, part of the college Gridiron
Coast to Coast podcast network. Here's your host, that Zemmo. Welcome to
the latest edition of Get Off My Highland College Football podcast. This is your
host, Matt zek. Well, that was a game that was a game
and a half, you even call it two games, Oregon Washington. It
felt like a heavyweight bout from the start to the finish it entered. You
know, it began as one of the PAC twelve games of the year.
Probably not gonna top it, especially since you know, USC got absolutely flattened
by Notre Dame, I mean USC Washington. USC Oregon before the season seemed
like main events. But after this weekend, Oregon Washington is probably as good
as we're gonna get in the PAC twelve. And it might very will be
the preview of a rematch in the PAC twelve championship game on Friday, December
first in Las Vegas. So lots to unpack from Oregon Washington, and we
obviously have to start with Dan Lane's decision made Now you might recall one year
ago Oregon Washington in Eugene thirty four to thirty four, tie Oregon with a
fourth and one near its own thirty five late in the game and landing in
Oregon go for it, they get stopped. Washington's able to kick the field
goal win the game. Thirty seven thirty four. Now a lot of people
fell at the time. You know, you got to punt there, you
know, because if you failed, then Washington gets the ball basically, you
know, on the edge of field goal range, just needs a few yards
to win the game. You know, understandable line of criticism. But the
really big point about that fourth and one decision one year ago from Lanning is
that bow Knicks, who remember he was injured. Bow Knicks was not on
the field for that fourth and one, and that's what made it so easy
for Washington to anticipate a running play, which is exactly what happened with Oregon's
backup quarterback in the game on the field, Washington was able to just go
all in, sell out for the run, stop the run, and get
the fourth down stop set up the field goal for the win. So what
Lanning failed to account for was not having Knicks, Like even if you have
a hobbled boon Nicks on the field, you know, get you plant that
seat of doubt in the opposition's mind. You know, is Nick's gonna keep
the ball? Is he gonna run the ball? Is he gonna throw the
ball? You instantly put several variables in play and the defense can't just gamble
on crashing down against the run. But with the backup quarterback in Washington made
that obvious choice, and Oregon did not have an effective counter. That really
was the problem. It was the play selection and not accounting for the absence
of Knicks. This year, fast forward to twenty three. This year,
Bonux is on the field healthy, and so Oregon had its trigger man leading
the offense different situations. So when we think about these fourth down go for
it decisions by Landing, like this year he had his guy. Last year
he didn't, and that was the problem that he didn't have Bonux. But
this year he did. And you know, we continue to talk about the
analytics and football strategy. And as I've said before on previous editions of Get
Off My Pion here on the College Great on Coast to Coast podcast network,
as I've said before, like analytics are good, like they provide a large
bed of information and context and details, and coaches should be looking into this
stuff. They should be diving into the data and and really getting some solid
information in terms of you know, these the situations and these decisions. You
know, if they often point in one direction rather than another, that that
should generally inform decisions generally. But as I've said, here's here's the cautionary
note. Sometimes regardless of what the analytics say, there is a game context,
and you can very clearly change the context of the game by making a
specific decision regardless of what the analytics say. See, that's the thing I
think. If you if the analytics help you sort out a somewhat murky situation,
that's what they're there for. Like if you if there's no obvious angle,
like if you can look at a situation, you can definitely play it
two or three different ways. That's when the analytics come in handy. But
if it's absolute clear, like you don't have to consult analytics, and you
know as a point of fact that the game will change in a certain specific
way if you do something, that's when you should just use common sense and
you shouldn't have to consult the analytics. So as we dig into these decisions
from Dan Lanning against Washington. You know, the first fourth down gamble right
before halftime, down four points, you know, so a field goal takes
a four point lead down to a one point lead. But it's only halftime,
Like, you know, there's so much game left that you know,
you're not really getting into the end game phase, right, decisions made late
in the second quarter, you're not thinking about, you know, how what
might happen in the final five minutes of a game. Now, you know,
the old school philosoph is, you know, bank points early, collect
them so that you have them on your side of the ledger late in the
game. I mean, so there is to a certain extent, there is
a looking ahead quality to that, but it's on a very general level,
Like it's not about specific to the opponent. It's just a much broader way
of looking at a game. Just you know, let's have more points in
our pockets so that at the end of the game, you know, we
might have better odds. It's not so much you know, looking at the
specific score against the specific opponent with a specific set of traits. You know,
being down four versus being down one versus being up to at halftime in
Seattle against Michael Pennix and Washington like the idea that, oh, you absolutely
have to have the three points to go from down four to down one.
I'm not going to lose too much sleep over that, all right. And
so if the analytics point in a certain direction and you have Bonnicks, you
have a lot of talent on offense, which Oregon definitely does, let it
ride. Like, trust your guys, and remember, let's also remember this,
when you continue to go for it on fourth down, you are sending
that message to your players. I believe in you, I trust you so
like you're not speaking to them verbally vocally, but you are sending a message
I am riding with you. I trust you to make big plays in big
situations. And so if a coach thinks he has an elite offense and an
elite team, he should be sending that message, or at least you should
be sending it a reasonable percentage of the time. And that's another reason why
I'm not going to knock Dan Laning on a larger general level for most of
these fourth down decisions that he made. However, as I mentioned earlier,
when there is a very clear cut game context to be considered, and when
you can very clearly alter the context of a game, but by doing something,
then you don't need to consult the analytics. You should just do what
represents common sense. And so when Oregon down by eleven, has chewed a
field goal and went for it on what was fourth and a few yards,
you not fourth in inches, fourth in inches, you should pretty much always
go for it. But fourth and two or three yards down eleven, right,
if you are down eleven points, a field goal contains significant value because
it puts you down eight. And what have I said before? When you
can change a threshold, you know, going from the two score threshold to
the one score threshold, you should almost always do that, and I don't
care what the analytics say. You can go down from eleven to eight,
from ten to seven, from nine to six. Those those three changes,
because those all involved going down two scores to going down one score. If
you can make one of those changes by kicking a field goal, and it's
not fourth and inches, but it's like fourth and two, fourth and three,
fourth and four, Yes, kick the field goal. You know there
might be an occasional exception, but generally kick the field goal. In those
situations and Landing did not, And that's the one time I really have a
problem because that's when he ignored a very very clear contextual reality in the game.
Now people will say, well, this game ended thirty six, thirty
three, so boyd you know, Landing, if he had kicked those are
your field goals, might have won. Yes, that's a fair point,
but the bigger point is when you are in a specific scoreboard situation and a
field goal really achieved something. Remember like, if you're down twelve, you
should never kick a field goal to go down nine. I mean certainly not
in the second half. You should be going for it to get down one
score trying to get down six, then five points with the pat or down
four with a two point conversion if you're down twelve, if you're down thirteen,
of course the field goal is not a significant consideration, but down eleven,
down ten, down nine, it absolutely should be. And of course,
on the other side of the point, if you are up six and
you can go up nine, if you're up seven, you can go up
ten. If you're up eight and you can go up eleven, you know
you should be kicking the field goal as well, because you're going from one
threshold to another. So that is really the deeper aspect of Dan Lanning's fourth
down decisions. Didn't have a problem with most of them, but I did
have a problem with not kicking when he was down eleven in the third quarter.
Needed to make it a one score game. And so that is something
that he needs to wrestle with because I think he goes for it all the
time. There once in a while you have to pick your spots. Once
in a while, you have to step away from the analytics framework and just
look at the context of a game. All right. Other things about Oregon
and Washington. First off, the hitting, the physicality, Like this felt
like a heavyweight battle. It felt like, you know, the first half
felt like a whole game. I know, a lot of a few people
on Twitter made that comment, and yes, like like those Florida State Miami
games of the late nineteen eighties, early nineteen nineties, you know, so
there was so much action packed into a game, so much athleticism, just
so many different things happening. Wasn't a dull game, wasn't a slow game.
You know, it wasn't a dry game. Like there were all sorts
of incidents. Those games just spilled out over the field, and there was
just so much to account for, so much to process and absorb, so
many details, so many nuances. This Oregon Washington game felt like that these
teams both look like they belong. You know, the Oregon defense, you
know, didn't win the game, but you know, after getting shredded for
two and a half quarters, this defense really toughened up. It really dug
in very deeply, and so like it's hard to say that the Oregon defense
fundamentally failed. Now, I was skeptical of this defense, and it certainly
had a bumpy ride for portions of time. But all in all, if
you're holding Washington to thirty six points with all the weapons that the Huskies have,
that's really not that bad. Like, and you know, in my
position at Trojan's Wire following USC football regularly, you know, I've said that
if you can hold if you're Alex Grinch and you can hold these other elite
Pac twelve offenses under forty points, that's really not that bad an effort.
So I need to hold Oregon to the same standard. The Oregon defense did
not collapse, and that has to be an encouraging outing for that group in
spite of the fact that it lost. Really, you know, the frustration
for Oregon was and you can find this on film. You can find this
from breakdowns, including from Zachary Neil, the great editor of Ducks Wire.
You look at his tweets on Twitter at Zachary C. Neil and ee L.
He has some screen grabs and some film cuts of bow Knicks not hitting
a few receivers in important situations. That's what the kind of thing that organ
might regret. And you know, if bo Nix hits some guys on third
down in the red zone, then we're not talking about these fourth down gambles.
So that is also part of the context in terms of, you know,
why Oregon fell short. But all in all, like the Ducks can't
feel that they didn't lay it all out on the field, they certainly did.
They do have to be annoyed that their kicking game, which had improved
in recent years, failed them. And you know, it's notable that several
years ago Washington missed a field goal late in Eugene that were have won the
game, and the Ducks were able to win in overtime. And that was
Chris Peterson once again, you know from his days at Boise State having a
kicking game failure, but this time it was Oregon having the kicking game failure,
and Chris Peterson was shown in the Fox College Football studio clapping and cheering
as that Oregon kick missed and everyone celebrated and rushed onto the field at Husky
Stadium in Seattle. So Chris Peterson not coaching Washington, but you know,
enjoying being on the other side of the divide in terms of a big kick
being missed in a Washington game of considerable importance Heisman Trophy. What do we
take from this game? Well, I mean bo Nicks didn't do poorly,
but he also didn't come up with the big play. Michael Pennix did,
and I think you have to put Pennix now at the top. And of
course Kayleb Williams, you know, was horrible. And you know if you're
going to have a repeat Heisman Trophy winner that that guy has to be miles
better than the rest of the competition. So I think Kayleb Williams Heisman Trophy
chances are done, because if you're going to win back to back, you
need to be clearly better than everyone else, and Caleb Williams was clearly better
than everyone else a year ago. But that isn't the case now, and
it's unlikely that it's going to be the case at the end of the season.
Now, if Kayleb Williams wants to put on his Superman Kate and USC
somehow wins its next six games, you know which, which seems like a
miracle right now, you consider all of the Trojan's problems and deficiencies. If
he can do that, all right, but you know what are the odds.
The odds are extremely, extremely small, to the extent that I'm not
taking that seriously as a possibility. I think Michael Pennix is in the driver's
seat. Dylan Gabriel of Oklahoma Jordan Travis of Florida State are also there.
But Pennix should be in the league because this was a spectacular game. He
made some money plays late in the game to help his team win. If
Washington wins the Pac twelve and or makes the College Football Playoff, it is
going to be hard for someone else to overcome and transcend Michael Pennix as the
Heisman Trophy winner for twenty twenty three. All Right, More after the break.
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All right, So on the other side of Oregon, Washington, USC
Notre Dame. Now, let's just put it playing with USC like there is
no We don't need to be all that complicated and long winded about this.
USC is soft. USC is a poorly co team. USC does not have
as good a roster as it did last year. Now you could say,
no, you know, maybe the players are actually as good as last year,
but the coaches aren't doing the job. You could also say, maybe
the coaches, you know, are are doing okay, but they just don't
have the dudes that they have last year. Well, you know, in
reality, it's probably a little bit of both, but it has to be
at least one or the other. So either the coaches aren't coaching these really
good players, or the coaches did not evaluate well enough when they made their
transfer portal acquisitions. Like Jordan Addison last year, he was an elite portal
acquisition for USC. His speed opened up the field that changed the game,
made things so much easier for Caleb Williams, this year's big wide receiver portal
pickup was Dorian Singer from Arizona, and I thought, personally, you know,
hey, like he torched USC last year in Tucson, and of Williams
watching that game from the sidelines, you know, when he was not on
the field against Arizona, he asked, Hey, can we get that guy?
He's really good. So like when Dorian Singer came to USC, when
he transferred from Arizona, I was thinking, and a lot of people were
thinking, hey, USC found the next Jordan Nadison. Not necessarily in terms
of playing style, but just you know, a wide, a number one
wide receiver who was going to make all sorts of huge plays, who was
going to stuff the statue. He was really going to change the equation.
He was going to occupy one half of the field and open up opportunities for
everyone else. That has not happened. Didn't happen a couple of weeks ago
against Arizona, didn't happen against Notre Dame. This guy does not get separation,
This guy does not have next level speed. Us. These wide receivers
have surprisingly become a limitation on this offense, and yet they're not the biggest
limitation on the offense. Now Kayleb Williams played horribly, Like that's just reality,
and you know it's interesting. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles also played an
absolutely atrocious game. Maybe it was just a weird weekend for clunkers, rare
clunkers from really good quarterbacks who know how to play the game, who have
proved themselves time and time again. Maybe it was just an aberration and to
a certain extent, Yeah, like Kayleb Williams is not going to regularly play
like this, and he was horrible. But we also have to say,
as bad as Kleb Williams was and he did lose the game for USC against
Notre Dame, his offensive line did not help him. And that is the
other thing. So the USC receivers surprisingly limited, the offensive line is even
worse, and that is really that was really the number one issue against Notre
Dame. That offensive line got punched in the mouth. Notre Dame's defensive front
was excellent. Marcus Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden had their guys ready to
play like they were on point. They were ready and they brought it to
USC and US offensive line did not have an answer. So what are we
left to conclude, well, I think the personnel for USC is not as
good as it was last year. Let's remember who USC had on its offensive
line one year ago. Andrew Vorhees now if the Baltimore Ravens like he's an
injury rehab but he's with the Ravens and Brett Nelon another elite offensive lineman from
last season. You know, they were not players who came to USC in
the transfer portal. They were players that stayed around. They were players that
Riley inherited and wanted to keep on the roster, and they did stay on
the roster. That seems to be the difference. You know, Vorhees and
Nlon gave structure and stability to that offensive line. Without them this year,
you know, Justin Dietitch is the one main holdover from last year's starting offensive
line. Justin Dietitch is struggling at center. He has not had the year
anyone hoped or expected from him at USC. For He's and Nylon very clearly
were the glue of that offensive line. Without them, you know, it's
not nearly as good. And that brings up the larger point that when we
evaluate coaches, when we evaluate programs, you know that first year, the
transition year, coaches are inheriting a larger percentage of players from the previous head
coach, and it's often the case that a coach will win with the player
the really good players he inherits from the previous staff, guys who have received
coaching from from other sources, and then the new coach inherits that and benefits
from it. And then in year two, after those inherited players leave,
then the quality goes down and it becomes, you know, it is revealed
that the coaching staff was really the beneficiary of what it inherited more than the
actual quality of coaching it did in that first year. When the coaching staff
then gets more and more of its own players, you know, in terms
of either recruits or from the transfer portal, year two and then year three
might reveal that that coaching staff is not able to do as good a job.
And so USC fans really have to be worried that the coaches on hand
at USC they're not developing these players in year two. That is a scary
thing heading into year three and in the Big Ten, like has Lincoln Riley
surrounded himself with assistants so mediocre that his player development track record, you know,
which was really strong at Oklahoma, but it had some good pieces there,
specifically offensive line coach Bill Bidenbaugh who did not come over to Los Angeles
from Norman and join him at USC. Bill Beidenbaugh not joining USC and Lincoln
Riley. That could be the most significant aspect of this USC downfall, or
at least this temporary USC decline. That no one outside the state of Oklahoma
is talking about people inside the state of Oklahoma like they've been saying that a
lot. Like I know what people in Oklahoma have been saying about Lincoln Riley,
and one of the things they were saying was, Hey, if you
don't have Bill Beidenba, your offensive line play is going to suffer in this
season. Oklahoma fans have been right, and no USC fan should take any
joy or pleasure in seeing that Oklahoma fans this year were right. They were
correct about Lincoln Riley. But that's the fact, Like that has definitely happened.
Like the things that Oklahoma fans were predicting about Lincoln Riley, they didn't
come true. In twenty twenty two, that was a great season for Riley
in his first year. He overachieved, but in year two. Yes,
the things Oklahoma fans were saying and pointing to they have in fact happened,
and so Lincoln Riley definitely faced is a crisis at USC, and it's going
to be fascinating to see how he adjusts how he deals with everything. USC
playing Utah this weekend. Cam Rising, we don't know if he's gonna play,
but he didn't play against Cal, so if he does play, this
is in season debut debut, and that invites all sorts of uncertainties for Utah.
Now, if USC plays Utah and Cam Rising does not play, and
Utah still goes into the Los Angeles Coliseum and wins, well, then it
is a five alarm fire for Lincoln Riley at USC, and it's a situation
where he would probably need to need to fully clean house on his staff.
He probably needs to make a few firings anyway at the end of the season.
But if he loses to Utah without Cam Rising playing for the youths,
that's pretty much the end of the season, and it should mark the end
of a lot of assistance jobs at USC all right. Other elsewhere in the
Pac twelve, the other things want to quickly hit on where we close the
show, Oregon State beats UCLA. You know, Oregon State, that's just
a team that seems to play really well at home and not play really well
on the road. USC's UCLA's offense did begin to look a little bit better,
but Oregon State did go up nineteen points pretty early in that game.
So was UCLA's a good showing on offense in the second half just a product
of Oregon State kind of stepping off the gas pedal. We'll have to wait
and see, but Oregon State definitely good at home. Now Washington State,
which had already beaten Wisconsin and Oregon State at home in Pullman figure two,
you know, benefit from some home cooking again. You know, Washington State
might have been in the same basket as Oregon State in terms of, you
know, a team that plays really well at home. But Arizona blew that
all up on Saturday, and we have to look at the reality where at
least the strong possibility Arizona might be a really good team, and you know,
know Fefita stepping in for Jaden Dolora in the injured Jaden Dolora, the
quarterback, that might have been the lucky break that coach Jedfish needed to bring
his team, his program to the next level. Like he did not have
Fifita as his day one starter, he had DeLaura. But when DeLaura got
hurt and Fefida came in, Arizona instantly became a better team. And we
saw the zenith of that, we saw the height of that in that forty
four to six beat down over Washington State. So the Cougars, you know,
they were beaten Oregon State and they were riding high. Now they've been
they've been absolutely awful the last two weeks. Arizona, after Oregon in Washington
is playing the third best football in the Pac twelve. And Arizona has three
losses, But just in terms of quality of play, Arizona looks like,
you know, a better team than USC and a better team than just a
anyone else in the Pac twelve. You also had Colorado blowing that twenty nine
tozzing lead to Stanford, and the shine has clearly worn off Deon Sanders and
all that media attention from the first half of the season now feels a little
bit more like overkill. But Arizona is playing better than every other Pac twelve
team not named Washington or Oregon. How many people expected that at the start
of the season. And so when Oregon State goes to Arizona later this season,
that is going to be must see television in the PAC twelve. Who
would have thought that? So you have Washington and Oregon playing this monster game.
You have USC in crisis, you have Washington State unraveling, Oregon State
playing really well at home, but really in many ways the biggest surprise of
the past weekend, along with Colorado blowing that twenty nine point lead to Stanford,
the Arizona Wildcats looked like a real wagon right now? How many people
would have thought that before the season began? Lots to cover in the Pac
twelve here on, get off my pylon. We head into week eight with
so many juicy plot points you taught USC, you know, a prove it
game and a must win game for the Trojans, you know, how will
they respond? And then the other particularly interesting game, Washington State at Oregon.
Does Washington State get back on the beam after two atrocious performances or half
the Cougar's basically mailed it in? And are they not going to get off
the deck for the remainder of this season? Those are the two particularly interesting
games awaiting us in week eight. So this is Matt Zemeck. Thank you
you for listening to the latest edition of the Get Off My Pilon College Football
podcast. We're part of the College Gridiron Coast to Coast podcast network. Thanks
for listening.