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So rates have been higher for longer. We have these rates that are kind

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of kicking everybody's butt right now when
it comes to commercial real estate, consumer

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debt, like all of that type
of stuff. And so even the FED

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would have been like or cutting a
quarter point today. Okay, so then

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your credit card went from twenty nine
point nine to nine to twenty nine point

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seventy four. Right, It's not
going to make a huge dedicate impact on

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anything. But what it could do
is it could say, hey, like

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we understand the lag effects are kicking
in. Let's slow them down before they

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break everything. You were listening to, Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival Network where

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00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:41,520
you get valuable information you just can't
find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying

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00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:47,159
times. You need the Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. Go to

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00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:53,960
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your
free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network

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00:00:54,439 --> 00:01:03,719
now more than ever. And welcome
you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host,
Carrie Lutz. Well, we got the

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news today. The inflation is down. How convenient? And if inflation's down,

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then how far off can rate cuts
be? Well, our good friend,

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Eddie Gifford is here to explain.
Eddie, it's great to have you

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back on. So when's the rate
cuts coming? Well, not today,

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we just found that out. You
know, I was is that has been

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coming in. We're starting to notice
that it really looks like the lag effects

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of the higher rates combined with the
high inflation is really starting to make things

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crack, maybe even crumble a little
bit. So you know, if I

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was Powell, I probably would have
cut a quarter point today, but that's

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not what happened. So, as
you mentioned earlier, CPI still slowing right,

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not going down, but still slowing, and we got beat today where

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I actually came in lower than expected, so the market was super happy about

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that. FED held rate steady and
then but then you know they they basically

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said that they're only projecting one cut
this year. So it's a It's very

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strange because for God like me that
talks to main street USA every day and

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sees people that are challenged right now, that doesn't seem to be the picture

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that they're painting for us. Uh
huh. So you know, I guess

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what choice does he have? Figures
to the elections probably cooked already. Nothing

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you can do there, so might
as well just do what's right for the

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country or do what's wrong for the
country. Well, I think if we

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look back throughout history, but the
FED has never got it right. And

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you know, generally speaking, what
happens is they wait too long to cut

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and so by the time they cut, things break and crumble. And the

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reason they're cutting is because something broke. And you know what we're we've been

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seeing it for a while. We've
seeing we've seen utilities outperforming, although they've

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pulled back a little bit. We've
seen gold outperforming. We're starting to see

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treasuries outperform again. We're starting to
see all these like flickering risk off signals.

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But of course, you know,
everybody keeps telling me, no,

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the sign is different, it's time, it is different. And then in

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two years we're going to look back
and be like, oh my gosh,

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all the signs were there. Why
didn't why didn't anyone do anything? What

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was going on? So it just
feels like we're barking up that same tree

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that we're always barking up, and
consumer's going to end up being the one

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who gets hurt by it. Mm
hmm, Well do you think that rate

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said the cure for all that all
that ails us here, No, because

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that there's already been I mean,
think about it. So rates have been

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higher for longer. We have these
these rates that are kind of kicking everybody's

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butt right now when it comes to
commercial real estate, consumer debt, like

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all of that type of stuff.
And so even the FED would have been

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like or cutting a quarter point today. Okay, so now your credit card

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went from twenty nine point nine to
nine to twenty nine point seventy four.

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Right, it's not going to make
a huge dedicate impact on anything. But

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but what it could do is it
could say, hey, like, we

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understand the lag effects are kicking in. Let's slow them down before they break

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everything. And that's just not what's
happening that. You know, the the

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problem with being like overlay data and
as you get up in this situation where

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the data has to show that things
are bad or you know, abysmally bad

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before you do anything, well,
by the time that happens, it's too

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late to cut. It's too late
to do these things. So I think

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that they've already waited too long.
And you know, obviously the fear is

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the inflation factor we're seeing that slow. It's still not you know, heading

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down to two anytime soon. But
you know, we can get it down

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to two or one or zo would
be a delation ravent where everything pops and

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we see this significant correction in the
stock markets and we're prime. I mean,

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it's easy to look at it and
say, hey, this is a

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bubble. It feels like a bubble, and you know, but how much

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further can inflate? Your guess is
good as mine. But when it pops

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can to be ugly. Hey,
when it pops, it's gonna pop puff.

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So so you're sticking to the thesis
gold, you know, silver bitcollin.

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What about other commodities here? Yeah, I mean we're sticking to the

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adage of rules based quantitative type strategies
and making sure that your your portfolio is

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truly diversified. So everyone has like
one hundred stocks, they think they're diversified,

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you're not. Every single stocks moves
in the same direction. Everything is

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correlated. Like everyone thinks that,
oh, we have stops and bonds.

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Well, except for inflationary times,
bonds correlate with equities, and so you've

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got to have something that maybe has
some type of ruleset, rules base that

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helps you lean in or lean out
of a trend, depending on what the

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trend is. And you got to
have this stuff like the commodities and the

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precious metals and even the cryptocurrencies now
as they've offered, you know, a

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uncorrelated return. You know, we
don't necessarily want inversely correlated, because all

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that means is that one side goes
up by ten percent, the other side

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goes down by ken percent. Well, we just earned zero, right,

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we went unincorrelated. We want everything
to make money over a long term cycle,

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but we wanted to make money at
different times. And that's what that's

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what a real portfolio looks like.
And unfortunately I don't see many portfolios that

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look like that nowadays. As somebody
once told me, the trend is your

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friend until the end. Yes,
it's one of those things where the market's

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going to do what it's going to
do until it doesn't, and you have

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to have a rule or some type
of exit in place, because especially if

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you're near retirement, Like, yeah, a lot of people I've been meeting

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with recently like they've won the game, and yet there's still risk one and

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they're skipping over the preservation part of
their timeline prior to the distribution stage of

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their retirement plan. And you know, it's one of those things where you

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got to you got to pay attention
to what your own plan is and you've

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got to make adjustments is necessary.
If you only need a six percent rate

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to return to retire based on the
uturient asset level, why are you taking

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ten percent risk? All it takes
is one moment, and if that portfolio

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gets cut in half, you're working
for another ten years. Now that portfolio

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goes up by another twenty percent,
it probably doesn't change your plane at all.

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You're still going to live the way
you're going to live. But if

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that port realily goes down like fifty
percent, your plan just got blown up.

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And it's interesting to see that people
don't think like that or even just

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understand or realize the risk that's associated
with the sequence of returns is they're looking

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to, you know, transition into
the next days of their life. So

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how do you measure risk by the
way? What's the accepted way and do

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you have any different approach to it? Well, of course Wall Street will

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tell you at standard deviation, but
all set of deviation is is volatility and

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just because something is more volatile,
it could be volatile and moving downward,

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and something that's more that's that's more
volatile, could actually be more conservative if

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the drawdowns are less. So we
pay, we pay very very close attention

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to portfolio max draw down. And
then you know, we're looking more at

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Sortino than Sharp because I've never had
a client mad at me for volatility to

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the m side. You know,
volatility, it's it's so crazy. It

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accidentally made like they're not mad at
me about that. You know, obviously,

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volatility to this downside, that's the
thing that people are concerned about.

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And so max draw down in s
Chertino helps us identify, hey, is

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this a good portfolio and can this
work to our advantage? Shrap is nice,

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but the sharp stuff takes into account
that downside volatility, and I'm sorry,

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it takes into account that upside volatility. And we like upside volatility.

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I don't know anyone who doesn't like
upside lolatility. We don't like the down

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next. Sometimes you got to take
the good with the bad, though,

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right well, I mean that just
depends on your role set and whether or

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not you have an actual diversified portfolio. You know, wallst you would tell

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you, yes, if you want
to get above average returns, you got

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to take above average risk. I
would say, the trend is your friend.

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Lean in when it's good and have
access in place, and when the

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trend is down, don't ride the
roller coaster down to the bottom. There's

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other stuff that does well in that
scenario, and your rule should be able

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to find, or your quant should
be able to find where the opportunities are

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in that situation. All right,
So when we talk again next month thirty

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you think we'll be looking at a
rate cut. It was surprising me if

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we'll see a rate cut in July. I was. I mean, I

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would have said that a rate cut
today is justify. I don't think they

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do anything in September, mainly just
because they don't want to mess anything up

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from an election standpoint. If it
were me, you know, based on

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what the data I'm seeing so far, if it continues in the same trajectory,

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I would probably recommend cuts like at
every meeting for the rest of the

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year. But the Fed's not me, and then they're looking at what they're

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looking at, and I think that
they're too late to the party. I

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just hope that the bubble's not so
big that when it bursts, there's there's

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you know, too much blood in
the streets. Too much, too much

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is you would basically need boots to
pretty much way through it, all right,

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boots? I mean I don't know
like that as much. We've had

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fifteen years of zero percent interest rates. I might even argue you might need

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a boat with a paddle because it
could get real bad. They made a

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bigger boat. Huh, yes,
yes, little scary. I hope I'm

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00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:05,559
wrong. I hope I'm wrong.
Carry, But there was al stuff there.

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00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,759
You know, the bigger the bubble
get, the worst it is when

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00:11:07,759 --> 00:11:15,120
it pops. So there are ways
to make moneys off those scenarios. But

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it's not buy and hold, that's
for sure. All right. Well,

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00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:22,879
Eddie, appreciate you coming on.
Just tell us how we connect with you

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00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,480
these days. The best place to
find you in all Yeah, the easiest

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00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:31,440
thing to do. I go to
Eddie or sorry, go to Detectivewealth dot

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00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:35,799
com backslash Eddie dash Gifford that's Eddie
with a Y G I F F R

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00:11:35,879 --> 00:11:41,159
D, or going to that old
friendly Google type of Eddie Gifford. Eddie

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00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:46,440
was a y Gifford and they'll probably
see this interview on there tomorrow, all

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00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:50,720
right, a bunch of other stuff
too, so you know, we're here

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00:11:50,759 --> 00:11:54,480
to help. It's a training time
and there's a lot of people concerned and

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that's what we're here for. That's
what we'd like to hear. Eddie.

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Appreciate you coming on. He got
question. I'm for Eddie myself. Shoot

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00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:07,159
me an email kl at Carrie LUTs
dot com. A link to Eddie's site

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00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:13,200
will be found in the show outs
to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot

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00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,440
com. While you're there, please
subscribe to our newsletter. Eddie. Always

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00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,519
a pleasure. We'll talk to you
again real soon. Thanks again, Carrie,

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00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:26,480
Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's

170
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,039
trying times. For the latest,
go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial

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00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:35,320
Survival Network now more than ever