What is krak alacing fellows thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dan Valley coming at
you with out my certified fantabular's co host, mister Grant Hughes. It was
supposed to be a solo mail bag. The listeners and discord have been clamoring
for a mail bag today while Grant is on vacation, I will try and
get to some questions in the mail bag off the cuffs, since I've not
researched any of it at the end, but we had too much breaking news
to get to Terry Rozier traded to the Miami Heat and the Bucks firing Adrian
Griffin. So I'll try and get a full mail bag up for next Monday,
and I'll record it over the weekend to the time of year though where
these audibles are gonna happen. My Bleacher Report schedule at the moment is living
fucking Proof. And then we'll have another episode this week on Friday with a
first time guest. I believe we won't reveal it just yet, but we're
gonna be going into a singular team for the most part. That'll be fun.
But let's talk. Let's talk about this stuff before we get to the
mini mailbag, as you call it. We'll begin with the Bucks firing Adrian
Griffin, which was surprising just because he was forty three games into his tenure.
The Bucks were thirty and thirteen, second best record in the league.
They are second in point scored per one hundred posessions, but they are in
the bottom ten of points allowed per possession. The defensive trade off of getting
going from Drew Holliday to Damian Lillard was definitely starker than the Bucks anticipated.
There were rumblings he received a lot of criticism publicly. He was changing his
defensive schemes fewer than five games into the season after players seemed unhappy with the
way he was using Brook Lopez and trying to be more aggressive. The defense
still hasn't really rebounded, and you look at some of their core issues and
it's everyone is this is not you know, this is not me saying anything
novel. Everyone has criticized their transition defense, their rim protection isn't you know
it received a lot of kind of hate, and they're definitely not as sturdy
at the basket as they were, but they're fifteenth in opponent a field goal
percentage allowed at the rim. And their eighth in opponent field goal the share
of opponent shots to come at the rim. So it's not disastrous, it's
just not elite like it was before. The transition stuff has been more damning
for them. They are as heading into play on Wednesday, January twenty fourth,
dead last in the frequency with which opponents get out in transition on them,
and when you watch them, you just you feel it with guys not
getting back. Their actual transition defense is okay, they're in the top half
the league in points allowed per transition possessions, but when you're gonna let teams
get out that frequently, especially after you're missing shots, where guys including Giannis
aren't getting back and Middleton and brook Lopez are just a step slow, and
you're very much able to get behind their back court when it's Malik Beasley,
Damian Lillard or if there's a different combination back there. There's also there is
ball containment issues when you do look at what's going on in the half court.
They're much weaker at the point attack than they have been. And it
wasn't just people forget. It wasn't just Drew Holliday they lost. They also
lost Javon Carter, who was important to what they were doing there as well,
And so I wonder if they would have re signed him and brought him
back, if they would have been a little bit better off. I would
argue they would be better off on defense. It would have been a material
difference to save Adrian Griffin's job. I mean, probably not. There are
other stuff we'll get to behind the scenes for the reason that feels like it
ended up this way. But look, Milwaukee is twenty second in half court
defense, and that is that is not good. And they're also just because
they're not even getting to a point where teams are on the break so frequently
that they don't even get a chance to have their defense set. And that's
going to impact you with the basket probably more like of your core principles.
That's gonna and when it comes to, of course trying to figure out matchups
or cross matchups. That's gonna make it easier for teams to attack you.
But that's gonna affect you at the point of attack the most, just because
you have these lead ball handlers that are gonna come up and be able to
get in a lane and make plays from there. And it becomes this anarchic
chaos if you're not to get your defense set and the Bucks just are not
athletic or young enough to get their defense set, or I should say this
way, they're not young or athletic enough to be able to make up the
deficit they were showing in terms of being you want to say, commitment to
getting back or being precise with the timing about when you're getting back and how
you're getting back. They don't have the physical gifts to make up for that.
Giannis is just the only one on this team that could do that,
and I think he even went on that long soliloquy a couple weeks back.
He even admitted that he wasn't giving it enough defensively. This is going to
be an issue regardless of who their head coaches. Joe Brunt is the interim
head coach. It does look like maybe this will be dated by the time
it comes out, but it looks like Doc Rivers is going to be the
one to take over, which, by the way, it'll be the twenty
fifth consecutive season now that Doc Rivers has had held a head coaching gig,
the streak lives on for him. Jeffan Gunny and Nate McMillan has also been
mentioned. Very interesting names there, But just trying to get to the point
of how we ended up here with the Bucks. We had Chris Haynes at
Bleacher Report released his tell All. We had Mark Stein over at his I
think he used his substack or at least his tael All. We had some
reporters from Adrian woz Enroowski and Shamsherania. It all points to basically the same
thing, which players weren't happy with Griffin and they never really he never really
gelled with them. In the Haines Report, it was noted that he had
sort of an airing out session with the Bucks's four main players of Middleton,
Lopez, Lillard, and Giannis. It was considered productive it preceded their seven
game win streak, but players were clearly unhappy with the roles and how they
were being voiced. We had that issue. I think it was sham Serrani
reported this initially and it's now been everyone's talked about it, where Terry Stotts,
who was their lead assistant, ended up stepping down before the season after
getting into an altercation during practice with Adrian Griffin, and there were issues before
that that I guess led to it coming to a head there. That's a
really bad position for, you know, a first time coach to be in
is just to you know, isolate someone who's supposed to be the veteran on
your staff. It was also reported by sham Shrania that in the aftermath with
Terry Stotts leaving, the Bucks basically forced Adrian Griffin to use Doc Rivers as
a head coaching consultant. That is, not, to be clear, necessarily
unique. There are guys who still do that on the side. I mean
Tom Thibodeau did it. I feel like he kind of had this tour where
he did it with a bunch of different teams during the time that he was
unemployed, and it happens all the time. But the Bucks forcing Griffin to
do that right out of the gate probably a red flag. So there were
just a ton of red flags here. I don't know how much coaching necessarily
accounts for the Bucks' defensive issues. I do think a lot of this can
be personnel based. At the same time, if you're not going to mesh
with your players, if you're not going to communicate well enough with them,
and look, Adrian Griffin in the NBA circles, has been around the block.
He interviewed I think for fourteen head coaching vacancies before he actually got one.
We'll see if he even gets another opportunity after this. This is sort
of a stain that's gonna Yes, the Bucks were thirty and thirteen, but
to kind of go out in his blaze of awkwardness, I guess you would
call it, and having these red flags and the lead up to you exit,
that's not going to reflect too well on him if he goes into future
interviews. That being said something, some of this needs to fall. It's
not a lot of it at the feet of Giannis Tantakoupo. There was reporting
from Mark Stein that it was it. We know that Adrian Griffin was Giannis's
guy, and that factored into the Bucks going with Adrian Griffin, a first
time head coach. But Stein is reporting, and this is just I haven't
seen his confirmed, but it is Mark Stein. He is very plugged in.
Even outside Dallas. I know people are skeptical of him. The dude
is plugged in. It's Mark Stein. You take you have to take it
at face value. He reported that Jannis basically wanted Adrian Griffins that he wouldn't
have to play for Nick Nurse, which I found very interesting. I don't
know of any bad blood between Nick Nurse or Jannis, like on the surface,
or haven't heard anything behind the scenes. Was Jannis worrying about having to
play for him? Did he hear something from his players about him former players
in Toronto about maybe how Nick Nurse grated on some of them. I don't
know, but he was apparently determined not to play for Nick Nurse, so
he threw his backing behind Adrian Grift. We didn't have like these deep seated
ties to apparently. I don't know how true that is. But regardless of
the why Jiannis backed Adrian Griffin, for him to I don't want to say,
make the call, but to push for this coach and to then kind
of be it sounded like, just based off what he said a few weeks
ago, he certainly wouldn't put up much of a fight if the Bucks wanted
to get rid of Griffin. To now pivot to this, that's gonna have
to be on him to some extent. I do not, though, really
believe that Doc Rivers is the answer here. It's just it's interesting that,
yes, he's worked with Stars before, but there's been basically locker room problems
wherever he went. James Harden wasn't happy with him by the end, we
know what kind of transpired with the by the end of the Clippers era there
there was just you know, the lob City issues behind the scenes. And
then also just when they were integrating the Kawhi and Paul George of at all,
they were sort of this contentious combatancy between that previous regime where it was
all these guys that wanted to play in all eighty two games and they were
sort of this plucky non star unit, you know, those like Tobias Harris,
Gallinari Leg Clippers not those guys were not on the team to be sure
when this happened, but like Pat Beev, Mantraz, Harrald, those guys.
So, yes, he's worked with Stars before, but it hasn't I
mean, his past few stops it's not worked out too well. And then
it's also super It's honestly, the word is hilarious that the Bucks get rid
of Mike Budenholzer because of how underwhelming they are in the playoffs, and their
solution is to then pivot to a first time head coach who doesn't even make
it to the postseason, like, doesn't even get the chance to coach into
the postseason. Then go to Doc Rivers, who has been Yes, part
of this is just the volume at which he has coached, but he has
overseen some of the most epic playoff collapses of all time or most underwhelming playoff
runs of all time. So there's a weird irony there. I guess just
having his cachet and him being available. I mean, the best free agent
coaching guy right now is probably like Wudenholzer. I don't think they're going to
bring him back, though Kenny Atkinson would be super interesting here, and I
don't think it would take a lot to get him to leave Golden State at
this point. Milwaukee not Charlotte, but he wasn't even mentioned in the preliminary
report. It seems like the Bucks are like going to skew towards these older
head types that are I don't want to call them disciplinarians, but that they're
I mean like Nate McMillan, Jeff n Gundy, Doc Rivers, these just
like curmudgeonly guys. It almost feel like that have always been rigid in their
principles when it comes to leadership, and in Nate McMillan's case and Doc Rivers's
case to offense, I don't even know what Jeff n Gunny would be like
as a head coach at this juncture. It's been so long since he has
actually been in that role at the NBA level. So I understand the move,
And there's value in making this call now rather than trying to see it
through for a season or longer. You have the honest you of dame.
Now. You're getting older in general, when you look at your core,
your windows not very long. And so there's we can critique the Bucks for
making the mistakes of hiring Adrian Griffin in the first place, but there's no
value that we would have criticized them for not get we're going to criticize them
for getting rid of him too soon, but if they would have let him
coach the postseason and it still wasn't right and they flame out in the first
round or something, that's kind of a no win proposition. So you can't
let yourself be impacted by well, kind of married to this guy. We
need to dig ourselves out of this hole optically to win the public relations battle.
And so I think you can commend the Bucks for making this decision about
halfway through the year. That's not an easy decision to make, but the
actions from here on are gonna speak volumes and just pivoting into doc Rivers is
uninspiring, just like the decision to higher Adrian Griffin quite flying through was uninspiring.
It was fine to give him the benefit of the doubt see what he
could do with this team. It was obviously unimpressive. And just the stuff
behind the scenes, I mean the Terry Stotts thing. I'm not saying that
was his death now. But you have this player, a top ten,
top fifteen player in the NBA, and Damian Lillard coming in with a former
head coach who he bonded with, knows how to use him, knows how
to reach him, resonate with him, and you just marginalize him, isolate
him, have battles with him. It's just not a smart practice. That's
not something a veteran head coach would know better. That's just common sense.
Yeah, veteran head coach will probably know better than to isolate someone who's so
close with Dame as Dame was coming into your organization. So, but that's
just common sense overall. Rookie head coach, season head coach, I don't
care. And so there was a level of writing on the wall. It
felt like here. I know there were a lot of Bucks fans that kind
of were not maybe maybe not coming out in defense of Adrian Griffin, but
they've pointed to yes, he's made some lineup changes. He eventually changed the
way that he was using Elie Beasley, and it really a lot of this
does come down to, in my estimation, when you watch the Bucks,
is there personnel? I think the offense you can say, especially in crunch
time, wasn't creative enough? Was it using Dame properly enough? He apparently
hasn't been tooe happy with with his role. I mean his usage was going
to drop. Gianness's usage was going to drop. That's what happens when you
have all these higher usage guys together, and so there's an adjustment period.
For Chris Middleton. It seems like players lacked directives though, and so maybe
it's not so much the volume and the numbers that have you know, depressed
for Damian Thought, I mean the efficiencies down he can't be happy about that
overall. Do you blame Adri and Griffin for that? I do not know,
but it doesn't seem like they were being very happy with how they were
used. And there was definitely a lack of creativity or even conventional wisdom with
the offense. When you're looking at the Bucks utilizing Dame and Yannis pick and
rolls, looking at some of the mistakes that they were making when you got
into crunch time, looking at the mistakes they were making, or their innability
to just kind of not incomplete inability. But they've had some really you would
say bad losses but also kind of bad wins. We're just barely beating the
Detroit Pistons, who just aren't even an NBA basketball team at this point.
So, like all that stuff, it's a confluence of circumstance that really contributes
to it. And like aside from all this is that there weren't many good
defensive harbingers. Yes, the Bucks I think are tenth in opponent effective field
goal percentage, which is fine. Now, they're not forcing turnovers at all.
They're dead last in the opponent turnover percentage, and they're not a team
that to get blown out in transition and then just not be a good rebounding
team either. Where they're in the bottom half of the league in defensive rebounding
rate. That's not great. It's like, all right, they don't fail
a ton, that's pretty cool. Yeah, because they don't have an opportunity
to because guys are wide open in transition, or there's just not a ton
of ball containment from them in the half court. That's still a personnel thing,
though, like Doc Rivers, I don't think he's going to fix that.
I would be open to seeing jeff Fan Gundy here just because he cut
his teeth as this defensive officionados. I'd just be interested to see him come
in and oh, Jeff Fan Gunnys just on the NBA sidelines again. And
the last time he coaches. He hasn't coached since he was with the Rockets,
And so what year was that. Let's look this up. Jeffan Gundy
last coached in the I mean in two thousand and six, two thousand and
seven, so we're talking about like fifteen sixteen year gap here, which would
be just absolutely that would be wild to now see him on the sidelines.
I'm all for it though, just for just anecdotally, I'm all for it.
I don't know if it would be a good a good fit, so
we'll see if it ends up with Rivers there, I would be pretty uninspired
if it's Rivers and I'm a Bucks fan, you still have the talent.
There needs to be moves made at the deadline. Though. There was a
report for Chris Haynes that the Bucks are trying to get it on the de
Jontay Murray sweepstakes. It's not happening. It can if de Jonta Murray still
in Atlanta are up for grabs in the summer, that's when the Bucks still
have some like first round equity that they can trade and you can build offers
that way. But they're not getting a de Jontay Murray level defender. He'd
be a great fit for this team. I know that he has regressed defensively
in Atlanta. The context kind of changes in Milwaukee when you have Giannis and
Brook Lopez behind you, and him and Dame, I think compliment each other
very well. Dame is so much more adaptable offensively than than a Tree Young
is. But you're so you're more so looking at this team right now.
Even if you threw everything they had on the table. I don't think that's
enough to get them in alex Caruso. Could they get Javon Carter back from
the Bulls? That might be something they could look at. What does it
cost to get Dennis Smith Junior or Davion Mitchell from Sacramento and Dennis Smith Junior
is in Brooklyn at the moment. Those are guys that you could realistically field
and throw at the point of attack defensively who shouldn't cost you a boatload.
Those are kind of the names they're working with. They could use some athleticism
on the wings, but I don't see the target. I guess if you
got a Doriyanfony Smith, but the Nets reportedly want two first round picks for
him, if you count marj On Bochamp as a first round pick, like,
is that an offer they'd be willing to build around. I also don't
view Dorian Phony Smith is like this point of attack Savon. He did some
of that stuff in Dallas, but he's older now and that's going to be
a lot to put on him. So you're looking at some of these even
if it's a DFS like that's probably the ceiling on their acquisition. Maybe a
Royce O'Neil is someone who could help them there. Those are the types of
names that you're going to be looking at, and I don't think those are
bad names. I think they would all help Milwaukee, specifically on the defensive
end. I don't think it solves It's not going to solve everything. All
part of this is just the Bucks are getting older. You can see it
with Chris Middleton. You can bounce back offensively, but he's not the same
player he was defensively, and so they need to figure out if they want
to look at more wholesale changes or maybe some more expensive dice rolls. Feels
like it'll be easier to happen over the offseason just that's what a lot of
this stuff does tend to have. But also they will have more assets to
dangle in front of teams if and when they get there. So interesting decision
by the Bucks. I don't know if it was the right decision. I'm
very it's just very uneasy and unsettling, and I don't know that just knowing
who's probably going to replace him incredibly uninspiring is sort of where I land on
that. And we'll see if any coach though, and that's this I'm not
a doc Rivers guy, but you could install you know, maybe I won't
tell. You can put a Ris Baulster on this team, and I would
bet their defense would be a lot better. I'll be interested to see without
them making any wholesale personnel changes, what does this defense end up looking like.
Is it really just a matter of, well, okay, well someone's
going to come in and you know they're going to do a better job of
playing Andre Jackson junior or giving Chris Livingston a shot, and that really gives
you a jolt of adrenaline the defensive end, I guess, I mean maybe,
but I just I look at what they're doing defensively as a personnel issue,
and this decision with Griffin really felt less about schematics defensively. I mean
was definitely part of it, but it felt les about schematics defensively than his
failure to just kind of be on the same page with his players off the
court and offensively and then yes, defensively as well, where it seems like
they didn't support some of the stuff he was trying to do at the beginning
of the season. To his credit, though he did. He did change
and they've gotten back to their base defense like a lot more ever since then.
And so that's why I do believe that a lot of this could be
a personnel issue. The next thing we need to talk about Terry Rozier,
member of the Miami Heat, who made a trade. I was, I
mean, not super shocked that they did something, but they did something before
the deadline, and I always assume that they were gonna try and preserve first
round equity for a bigger fish, essentially, and they didn't. They got
Terry Rozier for Kyle Lowry and a twenty twenty seven first round pick. It
is lottery protected in twenty twenty seven and then immediately unprotected in twenty twenty eight,
which is like, that's that's weird, Like you don't normally see protections
drop off so precipitously over the course of a year. If it gets to
unprotected, it would normally be like, oh, top fourteen, and let's
be even a little bit more, should be top fourteen to maybe top eight
to then it's unprotected, or top eight to top four to top three and
then it's unprotected. That's a pretty precipitous drop. However, it is conditional
upon Miami conveying its first round pick to Oklahoma City in twenty twenty five.
That can spill over to twenty twenty six. If it does, it's not
clear what happens to at least I didn't see it reported to the twenty twenty
eight first round pick. Where right now that's unprotected. But if that's the
first allowable pick, is that lottery protected and then at least out to twenty
twenty nine. My guess would be that if you have to send out the
twenty twenty eight pick, it's just unprotected no matter what, even if that's
the first pick that Charlotte could get. The Heat also save I know everyone
cares about this. They save a bowload in luxury tax money because Terroorzier is
making about six million dollars less than Kyle Lowry this season. And what that
does for the Heat is one of two things. It just gives them more
wiggle room if they want to make other trades. As of right now,
they're gonna be at like there. How far are they below the second Apron
at the moment, I think they're about ten million dollars over the first Apron
so they might be are they a second apron team as we speak? They
might be. No, they have they're like, they have two hundred thousand
dollars in room beneath the second apron right now. So that's what this accomplishes
for them. So that makes their trade parameters a little bit easier. But
you still would be in a situation where you can't go past that second apron
anyway if you don't want to be subject to the one hundred and ten percent
rule this season. The other thing it does do, though, is because
how how deep are they into the tax i miss reading their cap sheet at
the moment, I'm gonna have to apologize there if if that's what I'm doing,
But no, I have you know, their team salaries is pretty high
up there. They could just cut additional money if they wanted to get out
of like the first aprons, Like is it a Kayleb Martin salary dump or
something like? And I don't even like Kayla Martin is not a player.
I'm looking at the wrong team. I apologize here. So Miami with this
trade, so they cut a boatload in luxury tax payments they now have,
they are still over the first apron I think, but they're like inside nine
million dollars of the luxury tax. For anyone who's still sticking with me here,
if they wanted to, then in theory I mentioned Kayleb Martin, they
could just like Kayleb Martin and like a young player or two of their minimums,
they could get out of the tax. Now that doesn't make it feasible,
but it gives them more flexibility in other trades. Rosier is a fit
is interesting. He is owed. It says that his final two years,
the actual final season, is partially guaranteed. It's it's like fully guaranteed.
So twenty four point nine million of twenty twenty six point six million is guaranteed
in his final year. And so you look at this as he's on the
books for twenty four point nine next season, and then he's on the books
for twenty six point six, and so you have over fifty million dollars committed
to Terry Rozier over the two years following this one. He is on the
verge of turning thirty, So that is this is not someone who is super
young. The fit in itself it makes sense for a number of reasons.
The heats offense has been underwhelming this season. They are entering Wednesday twenty first
in points scored per one hundred possessions, which is that's not good. That
filters out garbage time, using using cleaning the glass. There twentieth in effective
field goal percentage rate. They're not a big offensive rebounding team. That's not
something that there you're gonna be about when you have you know, Bam bam
Ada Bios your primary big and he spends so much time on the perimeter.
They do they they don't get up enough threes. They're fifteenth in three point
at ten to three, but they are eighth in three point percentage. Terror
Zier is gonna juice that up considerably. He has. He has been absolutely
lights out and what's a big deal for that happening to Charlos? The Meili
ball has missed a ton of time, and last year Terrozier struggled a lot
without without having the Melo ball on the court, and this year, like
no. His three point percentage is kind of still low, but thirty six
percent on seven point seven attempts per game. The big thing for him is
the pull up three point shooting. He's attempted one hundred and forty five pull
up three pointers, which he is knocking down at a thirty nine point three
percent clip. There are only two other players who've taken as many pull up
threes and are shooting them at a thirty nine percent or better clip, and
that is an addition to terror Zier. It's John Brunson and James Harden.
So that's pretty big company to keep it. And so giving Miami that sort
of juice, it gives you more half court optionality. And yeah, their
half court offense has been above average this year in large part when Jimmy Butler's
on the floor. And so when Jimmy Butler's on the floor, they're in
the seventy second percentile of half court efficiency and they're in the sixty ninth percentile
of offensive efficiency overall. So really good, not great. You remove Jimmy
Butler from the equation, which you've done quite a bit this year. They've
played almost twenty three hundred possessions without Jimmy Butler, they're forty ninth in half
court efficiency and they are nineteenth overall. They're in the nineteenth percentile of overall
offensive efficiency. So this is going to help you better navigate the Jimmy Butler
list minutes because Tyler Hero and bam Adebayo never been enough there. Bam has
kind of overstretched as the primary hub. I think he's overrated as an offensive
player and underrated as a defensive player. Is the best way for me to
frame it. He has added layers to his offensive game in each of the
past two seasons where I think you can count him in more to punish mismatches
and go at at one on one, But as the kind of tip of
the spear or the entire spear driving the thing without another co star, it
gets difficult what I do wonder the implications here are for Tyler Hero and like
longer term, it just not that playing Tyler Hero and Kyle Lowry together made
a lot of sense, but playing Terry Rozier and Tyler Hero together makes feels
like even less sense. Razi is not as strong as Kyle Lowry. He
doesn't have great size of his position. He will try defensively, but it's
a lot of trying that's not a lot of it being effective. And maybe
he just looks better in Miami, where you have bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler
and Himai Hawks with you that for sure could help the minutes with him and
Tyler Hero or him and Duncan Robinson though, and I would imagine that winds
up being my Miami's most huge closing lineup is BAM, Jimmy, Jaimi Hawkez,
Terry Rozier and Duncan Robinson. And so this kind of makes it hard.
I feel like for Tyler Hero to crack the highest leverage situations during the
playoffs, and maybe that always would have been the case. Could they go
if Kayla Martin is healthy and playing well, maybe there's some mixing and matching
there. I think that Heat can do enough. Even they have Josh Richardson
too. They can insulate Terry Rozier enough defensively. I just don't know,
And this was a problem they already had. Can they insulate both Terry Rozier
and Tyler Hero lineups? And those are lineups that look a nice when Jimmy
Butler's at like, those are lineups you might need to turn to in some
pretty high volume. I am. I don't want to say this is underwhelming.
I think it's a good interesting fit for the Heat. I don't think
Rosier is a good enough playmaker to necessarily lead lineups on his own, despite
the fact that he is I believe, averaging a career high and assists this
year. What was he at like six assists last time I checked per game.
It's not a lot of complicated stuff out He's at six ando point six
assists per game, up from five point one last year. And so he
has strides, is like a high volume pass or they've put him in this
weird role. I'd argue he's over attacks. But again, he's performed so
well as a score this year. But he's not someone who's gonna come in
run a bunch of traditional pick and rolls and be super efficient at setting up
others. Like this is someone who's gonna look for his own shot, and
there's absolutely value in that. I just I think there is sort of a
risk here, and I say this is Look, he's in the ninety fourth
percentile of pick and roll ball handler efficiency this year. He is shooting,
I think, on a really large percentage of those possessions if I'm if I'm
not mistaken, So yeah, eighty five point one percent of his pick and
roll possessions are ending with a shot attempt. And then you tack on another
like you factor in the turnovers that are happening there and the shooting foul frequency,
and you're kind of looking at this is someone who is you know,
ninety ninety five percent of his pick and roll possessions are ending either in a
shot attempt, a foul shot, or a turnover, and so we're not
looking at a ton of playmaking here. That is something to can is Nikai
is Duncan and had a thread about this on Twitter. He's also struggled when
teams are throwing doubles at him. I actually he won't see as many of
those in Miami, just having Bam having maybe more dangerous shooters around than having
Jimmy. Of course, again, I think this is a reasonable gamble to
make. It's just he is not someone whereas if you would have went the
Dejontay Murray route, which you could. I want to make it clear you
don't get Dejontay Murray for this price. You can envision him being his own
asset, like an even better asset in his subsequent trade. I don't think
Terry rose Year is that player when you're talking about you'd be flipping him again
when he's thirty, still making twenty five twenty six million dollars a year.
That feels like a net neutral contract at this point. Maybe with the way
he's playing, he's providing slightly more bang for his buck if it pays dividends
in the postseason, though, it's all going to be worth it. And
this was an acknowledgment from the heat. It seems that Jimmy Butler's thirty four,
like what are we waiting around for? And we know, like the
organization doesn't seem like it's ever really liked Kyle Lowry behind the scenes, even
though he was he was kind of going through a run at the moment and
had been pulled. We've seen his minutes being slashed, but he was like
like he was important to them, like if this season and too important for
someone his age and the offensive decline that we've seen from him over the past
couple of seasons, this is gonna make it harder. Though Miami ever wants
to make a bigger move, because it's just now you've committed another future first
round pick. You could say that he'd always find a way. Look,
they found himI Hawkins, and you're absolutely right, that's all of a sudden,
someone if they wanted to go big, big fish hunting. You're not
gonna give him up for de Jonte Murray or Zach Lvine. Certainly not a
Terry Rozier. I don't even think they would give him up for a lowry
market in. But if you start to get into the McHale Bridges discussions,
or if they want to be in the Donovan Mitchell sweepstakes, he becomes sort
of this trounce card for them, and maybe they're viewing it that way.
Although I think part of the people be what we want to pair Donovan Mitchell,
Jimmy Butler and Van with Jimi Hawkins. It just makes their pick equity.
Let's just assume everything conveys at just an order of how it's listed out
right now. This summer can trade one, they could trade two first round
picks twenty twenty nine and twenty and thirty one. Then they can include swaps
in there. That's and then you could technically technically it's three first round picks
if you count this season, so they could trade him the player after they
draft him. So it just it dilutes their best best offer a little bit
if they're especially if they're not going to include Jim hawkas, but you still
did. You were going to lose Kyle Lowry's salary slots. So now you
roll it over into a cheaper Terrorozier, he becomes valuable from a salary matching
perspective. And look, there might still be teams out there that just value
Tyler Hero, who is such a flawed player. I think he's probably a
better passer in certain situations than people give him credit for. He's also someone
he takes difficult shots, but you can make him I mean thirty seven point
two percent on pull up threes this year at on ninety four attempts, and
so like we're talking about someone's averaging at least you know, two or three
of those looks per game. He has a use and so they're not completely
out of it, and they were never going to have When you talk about
some of these teams that will go big game hunting, if you pit them
against New Orleans or OKAC, they're not going to have the best offer.
And that's not unique to Miami. The Lakers are going to be in that
discuss, and the Knicks, even they have a plethora of picks and Quenton
grinds that they can dangle they can be outbid. It's just which of these
teams will actually be involved in the same players when they become available. And
so Miami took a calculated risk here, and I know people like more definitive
tasts than this. I don't love this deal for Miami, but I don't
hate it either, and we'll just have to see how it works out.
I still think they're gonna wind up missing a pretty significant offensive element when you're
looking at someone else who can drive the entire offense independent of Jimmy Butler,
and so I don't think this diminishes their dependence on him anymore so than it
does to upgrade the Kyle Lowry minutes and then some of your closing units in
the postseason. And if that's what you did, if you upgraded closing unit
optionality in the playoffs, that fucking matters. And so we'll have to see
how it plays out from there. On the Charlotte end of the spectrum,
this is interesting for them because it signals that the new ownership group led by
Chenall is going to rebuild, and I think WOJE even reported that they were
going to prioritize taking on digital money. They want to rewrite, rewrite,
re route Kyle Lowry. They don't want to take on longer contracts that have
draft equity and young players. Getting a distant first round pick here is smart.
It's it's a lottery protected and so if you want to say the Heat
or not, like the Heat might be sending out an unprotected pick in twenty
twenty eight, that is good business to you know, take on a little
bit of money this season, and you got out of the final two years
of Terry Rozier's deal, so where now you can have boatloads of cap space
this summer. If Charlotte really wants to to max it out, they're a
team that could get to almost thirty million dollars in room. I think a
lot of that's going to depend on, Okay, well, what goes on
with the Miles Bridges cap holes. If he wants to leave, they are
the only team that could have his bird rights, though maybe they help with
a sign and trade. It does seem like they would be a team that
would be open to doing that. They can really like they can get to
yeah, even because of the Miles Bridges, Like they're a team that can
get to like thirty plus million dollars in cap space this year, and that
that number I believe could just absolutely skyrocket if you remove Myles Bridges from the
equation. Is cap hold's fifteen million, fifteen point one million. They're a
team that kind of gets closer to forty five plus million in cap space.
It looks like that's stuff they could use to facilitate other salary dumps. And
they're saying, hey, we want to rebuild around LaMelo, Mark Williams and
Brandon Miller. That's a smart call here, is to pick up the extra
draft equity. I do wonder what they could get for this whole we're willing
to lease out our cap space type deal is what are the contracts that are
out there that might come attached to a first round pick. You don't have
necessarily a bunch of players to dangle that are super used. Like Terry Rozier
was kind of that last bullet in the chamber because Miles Bridges is whatever,
like teams with the public relations hit because of his domestic violence incidents, accusations
charges in the past. I don't know who's gonna actually willing to trade for
him unless you in a cap space this summer. It doesn't actually make sense
to trade for him because he all unlikely becomes a rental Gordon Ayward as a
number, as an expiring number thirty one and a half. There might be
teams that want to get out of money. I mean, do the like
do the Blazers want to undo the DeAndre Eyton trade? Do the Nets want
to get off of Ben Simmons' contract? He has another year left on his
deal. I don't think you're getting a first round pick for any of those
scenarios. PJ. Washington becomes interesting. He's making a little bit less so,
but if you send out his sixteen point eight million and you're willing to
take back some bad money, I love him. On the Clippers. Someone
told me that nakay is duncann't mentioned that back in November. I promised I
wasn't cribbing his idea. That was something I thought of before Grant and I.
I'd been thinking on it before Grant and I recorded last week. You
could probably get like, do you get the Clippers distant first with PJ.
Tucker's money, and then you send out another in a mere coffee and someone
else? Do you get that first round pick for sending out PJ. Washington,
you do that deal if you're Charlotte. I think that's the last player
you could really count on that happening with the I don't know that Kyle Lowry
at twenty nine point seven million or Gordon Hayward a thirty one point five million,
I don't know the team that has a contract out there that they're willing
to compensate you to get off their hands. You can say that the Warrior
should get out of Andrew Wiggins business. They're not gonna give up a first
round pick or Moses Moody just to get off of Andrew Wiggins. I'd be
pretty floored if they did that. So you should still be open to it.
I mean, even if it's a matter of what we're getting these nice
seconds to take on someone who leaks into as obligations next year, Yeah,
for sure, why not. But the salaries of Kyle Lowry and Gordon Hayward
are also so massive that you're probably dealing with a bunch of moving parts here,
and so it's just like even Dallas might have some guys on their books
that they don't want next season. I mean, Tim Hardway Junior is pretty
important, but they have Rashawn Holmes's money on the books for next season.
Maxic leebook kind of looks like a shell of himself. Now is that money
that they want to get off there? So could you work something out with
them? But do they even want a Gordon Hayward or a Kyle Lowry?
They're probably not. My prediction would be that both, I mean maybe not
both. Kyle Lowry's probably gonna get bought out. A lot of people have
them ticketed for Philly, which he can't. I saw people mentioning the Suns.
If you see reports like that, just remember that teams that are in
the second apron uh, they can't sign anyone who's making more than the more
teams in the attacks in general can't sag anyone who's making more on a buyout
market than the mid level exception, Kyle Howard can't go to the Suns.
He can't go to the Clippers. He can go to the Sixers. The
Knicks feel like, you know, have the Villanova juice is going And if
they don't trade for another guard, is that someone they look out on the
buyout market. I circle Philly in New York as just two destinations for him
if and when he's he can't go to Milwaukee if anyone wants them there,
and I don't think he's gonna upgrade their point of attack defense if he care
about playing time, or maybe even like Chanson Wani, when there are teams
that, like in Orlando, could really give him some more minutes. But
is he gonna be willing to sign with a group like that with the Spurs
come in and just flat out try to trade for him and say, well,
hey, we want another sort of veteran guard in here. Reunion with
Toronto. Maybe they don't. They don't. They don't need a league guard
at this point with with IQ and Dennis Shruder and RJ Barrett there. So
I think Kyler gets brought out. I don't know what happens with Gordon Hayward.
He might want to have his bird right still with Charlotte just to can
they work out a sign and trade or would they be willing just to sign
him to a deal that pays him a good amount of money that they could
potentially move later because they have to reach a salary floor and they're gonna have
all this cap space this summer. I don't know. My get gut would
be I'd be pretty surprised if either one of them gets moved. To be
honest with you, I just don't see the really bad contracts out there that
are gonna be you know, do they like, are they gonna how would
desperately do the Hawks want to get off of Clin Capella? The only is
one year left on his deal, and just yes, I just don't.
I don't see it like there are contracts Ben Simmons, specifically DeAndre Ayton's contracts
that looking so hot, but those aren't teams that are going to compensate you
to take off those players. And aside from that, they're just like you
know, does is it is La trying to get like they probably want to
roll their salary slots over, and the Lakers don't necessarily want to undo any
of their contracts. I could see the Clippers maybe being interested, but cobbling
together the money necessary there that ends up like I don't think they want to
get out of the Norman pal business. Atleast the should wants to. I
know, he makes a lot of money, but he's a perfect fit for
their playing alongside their stars. So yeah, I like this deal for Charlotte
and for what it says about how they're thinking, and we'll see how they
sort of maneuver moving forward. But I think if you're a Hornets fan,
this is a good harbinger because it shows that this team is you know,
they weren't winning anyway, but they're now starting to think outside their own box
to where it's okay, like we're pulling back. We have Lamellow under contract,
we have Brandon Miller, we have Mark Williams. Let's see what we
could build out from there other players on their roster. I don't Again,
I don't know who'd want to trade for Lowry and Hayward's salaries. Straight up,
I really can't like Orlando just because they could get there with Jonathan Isaac
and if they really don't like I mean Marko Folts seen his minutes come up
a little bit. But like they could get there with some contracts that they
don't need if they just wanted to have a veteran guard there in Lowry.
I don't think Hayward serves much purpose unless you're worried about Wagner being injured long
term. So like, there are teams that could do it, just because
I just don't necessarily see that, Like the Spurs. As I already mentioned,
see that team when you're looking at other Charlotte players. I still believe
that a Cody Martin could be helpful in the right situation. His contract is
not that steep. It only has a year left on it after this one,
before it becomes fully non guaranteed. I would absolutely take a shot on
him. I kind of feel like that could be it. I mean,
if I were the Horn I mean Nick Richards. Yeah, he's got dealing
with an ankle injury right now, and Cody Martsh has been injured. He's
been dealing with the stuff basically since last season. So great assault there when
you're looking at those two. Nick Richards is a backup big. I would
love to see him in Denver. But them coppling together the money necessary to
get him, like that's how little they're working with. Could the Knicks they're
dealing with an Isaiah Hartenstein injury, we don't know when Mitchell Robinson's back.
Could they take a look at Nick Richards. There's a look a first solid
backup big who's making five he's under he'll be under team control actually for two
years after this at a total of ten million dollars. The final year is
non guaranteed. That's someone who could have some value. Not super young,
not super old. This is he's twenty six right now. Could Cleveland come
in and take a look. Given the Tristan Thompson stuff, which we'll address
very quickly at the end of sort of this, Charlotte Hornets rant, Frank
Gilkeina should be untouchable. And what I love about this is because Kyle Lowry's
not gonna be there for a while, we should see some real Frank Frankie
Smokes minutes age twenty five season baby breakout coming. I want someone just to
trade for J. T. Thorer and play him. If the Hornets play
him more, I should say we've seen some of him, like a good
amount of him, and Charlotte this year we should see even more. Not
that I want Mark Williams to remain injured, but there's no time rhyme for
Mark Williams' return. And then if you wind up trading Nick Richards, if
you wind up trading PJ. Washington, JT. Thor is already top ten
minutes baby, he'll be top five, So I'd love to But those are
players I would take a look at. Cody Martin. I need to see
the stuff on his knee, Nick Richards, and then J T. Thor
the other players that would intrigue me the most on this roster. Although clutch
free throw shooter League Black against the Timberwolves on a two way, maybe that
peaks the interest of some teams. Two more news items too, or is
it three more? Let's start with the Tristan Thompson stuff. He's been suspended
for twenty five games for violating the NBA's anti drugs anti drug anti drug policy.
It was when you look at the actual the stuff that he tested positive
for, he it was psarms LGD DASH forty thirty three and ibut deemorn those
are those are peds. So he's the league announced he's be suspended for twenty
five games. He has been playing and contributing for Cleveland, and now you
know why. Apparently someone who was just at home and didn't look like his
NBA career was gonna continue. He is thirty two yearso that's super ancient.
He turns thirty three in March. This is like a semi big deal for
Cleveland. I don't know if we see more of Like, are they gonna
bring Isaiah Mobley to the Big Club while Evan Mobley's injured, Jared Allen's been
balling out entering the All Star conversation. It gets easier for them to navigate
when you have both mobile and Alan, because you could stagger them. I'm
probably gonna see some more smaller lineups from them, or maybe they go after
another big I haven't seen anything as I'm recording this about that. And also
we have a Kevin Porter Junior update. He and let me just make sure
I get this right, pleading guilty to a misdemeanor assault and harassment charges,
but will avoid jail. According to the New York Post by pleading guilty,
though it does constitute a violation of the NBA's domestic violence policy, and so
the league is yet to punish Kevin Porter Junior, who was on the Rockets,
was traded to the Thunder and then promptly waived. We'll see if this
results then in any punishment. And then also per that report, if KPJ
completes a twenty six week counseling program, he can withdraw his plea on the
assault charge. The harassment charge would apparently still stick. This is this whole
domestic violence incident. Allegations charges are very difficult to grapple with the fact that
Kisrae Gondrazik kind of disputed a lot of the aspects and what we thought was
evidence behind the case. And then the initial reporting said that she had a
fractured vertebrae that Kevin Porter Junior caused. Then it was later determined that he
didn't. He should still be don't get me wrong, he still needs to
be punished by the league. We'll see. My guess would be his NBA
career will continue at some point. He's just young enough, and teams are
always the stench of it always wears off. They'll be social media outrage for
us a couple of days, maybe a couple of weeks, and then it's
just going to fade. We've seen it with other players time and again.
There will be blowback when someone trades or signs Miles Bridges, for instance,
from Charlotte, and then it'll just blow over. That's how professional sports works,
and it sucks. But that's where we're at with the KPJ stuff.
How long have we been going You're at forty two minutes. I'm gonna try
and get to a couple of mailbag questions since I did send out a solicitation,
so let's go through them here. Jt Alexander asked, can you say
nice things about Chris Dunn. Yes, he is better than Taylen Horton Tucker,
But I mean he is feisty as hell on the defensive end and has
been a huge part of Utah's turnaround for just the assignments he's willing to take
on. And he's just kind of like the type of guy that wears wears
an opponent like a second skin, and the stuff that he's able to I
mean, even like he's had some really good passing moments that really the pass
you know, the two cents in Utah, so you've seen some of that.
Not going to be much of a scorer and you can't. Yeah,
he's shooting thirty seven and a half percent on one three point attempt per game.
Not necessarily someone you're gonna be able to count on offensively, but he's
like, he's had some really good passing moments in Utah's But I'll say there,
but as someone who's just gonna be able to contest shots four steals in
the passing lander while he's on the ball, to navigate screens. He is
just an absolute menace on the defensive end, and I'll be interested to see.
I think it's probably too much of a tall order for him to get
all defense consideration with the minutes that he'll end up playing. He's on pace
for about maybe twelve hundred this year. If that shoots up because he survives
the he'd be a tar man. The Bucks should look at what it cost
to get Chris done on their team if they have the second round equity to
make it happen. His minutive ticked up ever since THHT was pulled from the
rotation, basically he's been noticeably higher. But I think he would probably need
to get to fifteen hundred minutes to be realistically considered. But if you're talking
about and now positions are gone, so I hesitate to say that he's been
one of the ten most valuable defenders. But if there's a third team all
defense, he'd probably be on it. You know. The minutes total just
be absolutely damned here. And so just a great reclamation project by Utah and
we'll see if he will see if he sticks there long term. From Austin,
one thing that kind of annoys me is the whole player X is six
foot nine, but it's the same height as a random six foot five inch
guarter vice versa. Should the NBA do like an annual or every few years
calibration to measure all players. The height listings also seem to affect contracts and
signings often too. If a guy like Nei Smith was constantly being said to
be six seven to six eight instead of like six six, that would make
him much more expensive pursued. Probably, So I disagree here in the sense
that they don't affect contracts, like teams aren't gonna know the true size of
a player, and when you look at how they're measured, it's without shoes,
and then I think they add like an inch or an inch and a
half. It's something weird. The NBA should definitely fix its formula and maybe
updated so that there's less fan confusion, like the fact that Kevin Durant can
still be called like, what is what is Kevin Durant's true size? Because
we've seen him standing next to you know, these massive seven footers, and
he looks taller than them. He is now listened list is like six nine,
six ten, and now he's listed at six to eleven, So that's
progress. I would be all in favor of teams refreshing or the NBA forcing
teams to refresh these heights every year, and as far as I know,
they might actually have to, and maybe there should be more uniformity in how
they're being measured. We know that it's going to be without shoes, or
do we need to have sort of a differentiator where it's well and we see
this one with a lot of draft scouting reports where you're just looking at the
listings on NBA dot Com or Basketball Reference or whatever. It's the six foot
ten Kevin Durant or whatever it's going to say, rather than six foot ten
with out shoes or something. But I disagree that it costs players money in
contracts. Maybe it, like the fan impression of them would be different if
we saw that Aaron E. Smith was six seven and sixty eight instead of
like sixty six. Uh. But if that's actually if Natesmith is six seven,
six eight, then that's going to factor into the way. The Pacers
know that and teams around the league are gonna know that's going to factor into
how they go after them. But yeah, the same height stuff. It
doesn't annoy me just because it's ancillary, like it's not you know what does
it annoy you about? Why? Why is it annoying the lack of consistency
or because you don't like that someone is called. I don't think anyone still
calls Kevin Urrat six' nine for what it's worth. But at the same
time, I don't I guess I just don't see the impetus for it being
annoyed. If you want consistency, then yeah, let's make you uniformity.
Let's refresh player heights on an annual basis, and let's have the same you
know, the league should hire like three height measurer people that officially have to
record this and they're the ones that track it over the the years. And
so maybe you break it up by is every division have the same one so
they're six, or is every conference because it can't take that long. I
mean, that's a lot of traveling for them. But over the course of
a year, like just to let's say September or when training camps open,
you have to just make that leg every year and you're measuring these guys and
that's just how it needs to be. I would be all for that,
but I can't lie to you, Austin. I don't really care about this
one. But kudos to you for being sick of enough to take exception to
that Everything Blacks has something on the Pistons. Do I want to go into
the Pistons at the moment, Yeah, it's going to the Pistons. Everything
Blacks ass. You're the GM of the Detroit Pistons. What do you do
this summer with sixty plus million of cap space after signing Frank Nilakina, I
wouldn't have any cap space left, So you've solved it for me. But
look, I'm doing what the Hornets say they're doing now, and I'm trying
to use that to take on players that other teams don't want, whether it's
as a third or fourth party or as a direct party to another team where
if they want playing Bogdanovich, who's the team off for next year, I'm
gonna take back on wanted money that's attached to a first round pick. That's
what they absolutely should be doing. I think it's also okay, however,
when you look at free agents and say, well, we do want to
get better, we have this money to spend. Can we come over the
top and get looks at these guys. I think that is absolutely fine.
What you don't want to be doing, though, is when those guys are
already in the upper echelon of salary. And let's think of a good example
here. Tobias Harris would be one. No, he's not going to make
thirty nine point three million dollars at least, I don't. I don't think
maybe the pissons off from that, Like if he's someone who's going to get
to twenty or twenty five from a really good team and you have to go
into the thirties just to get him, No, that's burning too much of
your resources. And there's a chance that contract becomes borderlineer movable, or a
contract like Marvin Bagley's that you then need to attach draft equity to to move.
And like that's a special kind of disaster because you gave up for second
round picks to get him, and then gave up the second round picks to
get rid of them. So when it's on that scale where a player is
gonna be making enough and they are so clearly sub max that going into the
thirties for them, let's just say you're approaching what Tobias Harris's salary was it
gets prohibitive, and that's what you should not be doing. I mean,
Demarta Rosen would fall into this category. They just shouldn't be interested in Demarta
Rosen. And what I'm also gonna be doing if I'm them, And this
isn't necessarily in that order. But let's drum up the costs of some restricted
free agents. Let's Emmanuel quickly, Yeah, why not, let's see where
you can drum up his offer or Oji Anobi. The Knicks aren't gonna go
to a max. That's a player you could at least throw it at and
say, Okay, that's a deal that'll always be be movable there, like,
but you don't want to get too caught up in the hole. Like,
let's see we get League Monk out of the out of Sacramento or even
and I love him, and I don't think they would run a reunion.
He seem pretty miserable there by the end of his time in Detroit. But
like CASEP is a player option, that's not enough. Yeah, that's a
great glue guy, But if you're gonna have to pay twenty five million dollars
a year to get CASEP at this point, when you're talking about someone's gonna
be into his thirties and not a star, that wouldn't do it for me.
I have zero desire to see him be sign Miles Bridges or any team
signed Miles Bridges. That in theory is a player. When you're looking at
his age, what he does that archetype of player of Okay, let's let's
go after someone like that. But no, like that's not And if you're
gonna overpay for anyone, I'm gonna target shooters and wings or wings that can
shoot. And so it's what is Buddy healed cost? Again within reason,
if he's gonna make if it takes you thirty million dollars to get Buddy healed
for more than if it's if it's a Bruce Brown type situation with a one
plus one team option, okay, whatever, I'm not gonna care who you
give it to. But if it's oh, two years guaranteed Klay Thompson,
you want to give Klay Thompson forty million dollars a year, but it's a
one plus once or you're getting the team option, you can try something like
that. I'm all for it, and you get to roll on that salary
slot. I would rather see them surf the trade market, see what they
can make of that cap space, or drum up the cost of players in
free agency. They're not all gonna be restricted free agents. The restricted free
agency class this year is like kind of blase when you're looking at the extension
that were signed. But you could certainly try to inflate the cost of Emmanuel
quickly. You could certainly try and inflate the cost of Ojiannaobe, even though
he's probably just a no brainer Max. And if you want to look at
the one year win falls, can it be unlike these just super or two
year windfalls. He's super high character veterans who actually fit your team in some
way where that's not DeMar derozen I would I guess Thebiasaras does fit like what
they would actually need, like a my Com or Tias Jones. Those are
players that would absolutely be okay with them doing uh no steel clear of Gordon
Haywards. You don't want to get into the to the injury history there.
Do you take a look at it? If you can get role players where
it's well, they were gonna get the mid level and we can give them
slightly more like, what does does Bruce Brown want to come back to Detroit?
Probably not. Just danthy Melton would probably be a really good fit in
Detroit. Imagine him and Nasar Thompson defending and Duran th those lineups. I
don't know what the spacing would look like, but those lineus would be fun
as hell. That's what That's what I'm trying to do. And so there's
multi steps there. But the first option should be we're gonna see if we
can turn this cap space into trade targets that are coming attached to draft equity.
I don't want to see them make any win now type trades. I
don't care who's available, because you don't have to get your own first round
picks to do it. You're should be using that cap space to get extra
first round picks. Then from there, I'm looking at players I can overpay
in the short term to come to Detroit because you're going to have to overpay
them, but they they fit. And actually before that, sorry, step
two would be can we inflate the highly coveted free agent market at all for
players that would still fit? I mentioned Ojiannobi, I mentioned Emmanuel quickly,
What about Isaiah Joe h. Well, there's a team option Oklahoma City,
so you're not actually gonna have him on the open market. So then you
pivot to, well, can we overpay some guys? And maybe Emmanuel quickly
falls into this a little bit. But are we willing to go find guys
who will take short term win falls where they are one plus ones? And
so I mentioned a Buddy Healed there, I mentioned a Mike Comley, a
character guy, danthy Melton's another one that's gonna come up. I'm not I
guess I'm not anti Tobias Harris if it's for one or two years, but
like, you can't treat yourself like you're doing this to streamline or optimize the
development or the encore product of your most important players. Kate Cunningham, j
n Ivy of sar Thompson, Jaalenderan. Whoever you're gonna draft this year,
it shouldn't be anyone who's gonna infringe upon you know, if you get a
Demarto Rosen or if you went and traded for Zach Lvine with your cap space
and you had to give up minimal draft equity, those are guys that are
probably gonna infringe upon the development of your youngsters. And so I'm gonna look
more at these complimentary veterans ball movers. Mike Conley, I wouldn't be opposed
to Buddy Healds here. He can shoot the hell out of the ball.
Klay Thompson was mostly facetious. But again, if it's for one or two
years, fine, and ditto for if you went with KCP. But I
just don't like those types of players. I just think you get to a
point there the Tobias Harris is the KCPS that you're gonna have to go more
than one guarantee year out, and so then that's the potential for those deals
to become a disaster. So always look at the contract length there first and
foremost. And I just please steal clear of Miles Bridges. It's just not
it's not worth for some reason good enough. I just to go through all
this and I don't know who, I don't know who is, but it's
certainly not going to be Miles Bridges. So that's what I would do if
I'm Detroit. And look, if you can't use the cap space on free
agents, like if we get to a point and they're worried about hitting the
salary floor, Like it's just easy to make that stuffup via trade you can
get you know, don't do the whole Okay, what we want equity for
who were taken on, but are there expiring contracts that we could just take
flyers on reclamation projects? And it's what is? What would I'm not advocating
for this, but an example would be if Brooklyn just wants to get out
of the final year of Ben Simmons' contract, are they not willing to give
you a first round pick, but you get some draft equity and then you
get a look at Ben Simmons who used to be a really good player.
That's just one situation that brings to mind there. Could you even you know,
is it the Warriors at this point they're deciding to pivot and they're looking
at moving Andrew Wiggins and the final health two years left on his deal after
or three years left on his deal after that? Do you take a flyer
on him and you're still maybe you're getting seconds or nothing if you're trying to
make kind of a dice roll like that. I still wouldn't do a Fannger
Wiggans. I'm not gonna lie. I think that's too short term, thinking
i'd want draft equity for it. That's what I'm doing for Detroit is nothing
seismic, nothing too long term, unless it's if it's og or manual quickly,
I get it. But aside from that, when you're looking at the
free agents or perspective, trade targets, trade targets that really fit your timeline
are going to cost you draft equity and you're not good enough to give up
that draft equity. And so that's what I'm doing. If I am in
control of Detroit, I want to get to Rubikscal did aggregate some of these
for me. Mattie l This is a good one because of this time of
year. And I love these questions because I think Mattiel is asking about pick
protections, how to pick protections work. I love these questions because I think
I'm definitely guilty of and I'm sure a lot of us are. They're just
people who follow the league in a different way. And if you're following it
from afar, you're not gonna know like pick protections is like nuanced minutia,
Like that's really nitty gritty into the weeds shit, and it gets thrown around
so often, and it can happen. I'll find myself out of death where
I'm listening podcasts, they're mentioning these actions that are being run, and it's
something that I would have to google or it's just gonna turn me off because
I'm probably too lazy to google it sometimes in that moment. But pick protections
for Mattiel and so let's use the Heat with and the trade for Turros.
You're with the example. So they send out a lottery protected first round pick
in twenty twenty seven. If that pick lottery protections means is if that pick
lands inside the lottery so one of the top fourteen picks, Miami gets to
keep that pick then, so Charlotte would not get it. That's what the
protection means. And it could be whatever protection. If it's top eight protection,
that team that sent it out, the team that's trading it gets to
keep it if it's inside the top eight. Where things get a little bit
more complex complicated interesting is when those protections now spill out. And so to
use the Heat one as an example, it's lottery protected in twenty twenty seven.
So let's say the Heat are a lottery team in twenty twenty seven,
they get to keep that pick, but that obligation spills over to twenty twenty
eight when it's unprotected, and so when it's unprotected, that means Charlotte gets
that pick in twenty twenty eight, no matter what if they did not get
it in twenty twenty seven. And it works that way just across the board
with all protections, and you sometimes see some really weird protections or ones that
go really far out. I would go, you can google it. Just
look at the NBA pick obligations, and then go look at the picks that
Detroit and Washington o to the knicks at the moment where it's going to go
from. It'll be lottery protected one year, then the next year is top
twelve protected, and it's top ten, then it's top eight, and they
decrease in drips and drips and drafts. An unprotected pick is still the most
valuable draft pick that you could get. If this kind of spills into it.
I'm not sure if you're asking about the Stepian rule, but that says
you cannot move or be without first round picks in consecutive seasons, and so
this might be a slightly tougher to explain, at least in podcasts one,
where I hope I'm not confusing you with the audio. So if you have
traded, so let's let's continue to use the Heat as an example. They
cannot trade their twenty twenty six first round pick outright at this point. They
just can't because they owe a twenty twenty five first to OKAC, and they
owe a twenty twenty seven first to Charlotte. And because you can't be without
a first round pick in two consecutive years, you can't trade that that twenty
twenty six pick. In this case, it leave you theoretically without a pick
for three consecutive years. It also gets complicated because when you're talking about these
protections and the Heats again their obligation with OKAC, it's protected in twenty twenty
five and then unprotected in twenty twenty six, and so you can't you have
to even build around that in your trade offer to say first allowable first round
pick. So with the Charlotte trades as an example, the reason that you
have to use first allowable language is they can theoretically give up a twenty twenty
seven first round pick lottery protected, but they can't if they didn't send out
their twenty twenty five pick and are instead obligated to send out twenty twenty six,
the obligation spills over to twenty twenty eight. There is a way.
There are two ways really around this. You can if you own another team's
pick outright, then you're fine. So if the Heat, let's just say
they owned I don't know much. Let's say they own the who trades first
round picks way too often. I don't know. Let's say they own Toronto's
they don't trade first round I'm just trolling them for the Yaka Pearl trade apparently.
Let's say they own just Toronto's twenty twenty six first round pick. They
just they own it, free and clear. They could trade that pick.
They could trade their own twenty twenty six pick. However, because they owe
those obligations in twenty five and twenty seven, you do still have to build
around that language since those those pick protections leak out, And that's where pick
protections get super complicated, when they're spilling out past that one year to where
it's not just oh, it's lottery protected, meaning that the Heat get to
keep it if it's in the lottery and then it expires. It's because now
there are subsequent protections that not only affect this obligation, but affect then what
you can do on the trade market. That's why you see teams have to
get so creative or a lot of just complex protection or language where it's the
lesser of these first round picks. Another way around this though, and I'll
use let's use the Lakers as an example. They're they owe their twenty twenty
four first round pick to New Orleans, but New Orleans has the right to
defer until twenty twenty five. Now, because of that language, they can't
trade either pick. But let's say the Pelicans look at the Lakers and say
they're gonna be worse next year. We're gonna keep We're gonna keep the twenty
twenty five pick. Now, the Lakers before the draft, they cannot trade
that twenty twenty four pick. As soon as that pick becomes a player,
though, they can move him because it doesn't count as a future draft pick.
You used it. And so when you see I've seen a lot of
people get confused with that type of stuff, and that's fair. But you
can move a pick once it becomes an actual player, regardless of your future
or previous pick commitments. So because they would have their twenty twenty five pick
owe to New Orleans, No, you can't trade your twenty twenty four pick,
but it became a player. Let's say they drafted number I don't know,
eighteen or something. That's probably pretty generous for them. But let's say
they get the number eighteen pick. Once they make that pick, they can
turn around and trade that player. They will. Then most of the time
you'll wait. The deal won't be completed until player signs a contract, and
then you have to wait. I think the grace period is thirty days after
that contract because then you can move those draft picks as actual salary matching tools
rather than just hypothetical draft picks. And so I hope that clears it up.
If you have any other questions, you can message me in discord and
maybe I'll explain them in writing. It's a little bit better. But that's
that's a really great question. That's how prick protections work, and they can
happen in the second round when you see because there's a rule in trades where
every team involved has to touch one another touchable. That's why you see teams,
they'll either send cash, but you'll see these fake We call them fake
seconds because they're top fifty five protected, which means that you'll only get that
second rounder if it's number fifty six, fifty seven, fifty eight, fifty
nine, and sixty. So those are what the fake second rounders mean.
There are just some super complicated and protected picks where you're looking at the Bucks
pick that can stay. I think it stays in New Orleans. The New
Orleans owns the Bucks pick in twenty twenty five. If it's in the top
four of the top five, if its picks twenty five to thirty or twenty
six to thirty, whatever it is, the Knicks get it. I believe
is the is the language on that one. So they can get super complicated
and they're tough to track. And when you're coming up with trades, they
are important to note just because it just because well, can they trade?
Do they? Can they even legally trade this pick? And that Milwaukee pick
is top four protected, So New Orleans gets Milwaukee's twenty twenty five pick if
it falls one to four. So if it's one, two, three,
or four, New Orleans gets that twenty twenty five first from Milwaukee. If
it's any of the other twenty six picks in the first round, it then
goes to the to the Knicks. So that's how pick protections work. I
hope that was at least a clear enough explainer. I'm gonna do one more
here RUMSK three. So let's see what Having given thought to the basketball metrics
one, that's a you know what. I'll do that one though, because
I think I have one top top of mind. Rubek scal asks, what
basket what's a basketball metric that doesn't exist but you wish someone would put it
together? Mine is court vision, a metric that tracks how often you spot
and get the ball to someone running a backcut or an open shooter. How
often do you miss the right play? How often did you use misdirection to
get one of your teammates free? I would love that. I know b
Ball Index. I'm subscribed to that. It's not a free service. I
think it's like fifty or sixty bucks a year. They do have some really
in depth metrics when you're looking at passing quality or playmaking quality that can incorporate
some of that stuff, But there's nothing that's like court vision esque. There
I think mine would be I want to know how players create, like who's
creating the most separation on their different moves. Let's look at a step back
jumper attempt, or a drive to their left coming around to screen, or
drive to the strong side coming around to screen, or a dead ball stop
drive where it's no pick nothing, you're at the top, you're above the
break, and you're just attacking downhill. Who creates the most separation from their
starting point to when the shot attempt goes off. I think it's probably more
valuable for jumpers when you're looking at maybe escape dribbles or step backs. That
would be a really fun one. It would maybe help us gauge just not
who I think would probably affect him, like okay, well, who has
the best handles or what type of you know, how are their physical tools
actually translating. I would love to see it for a guy like Brandon Miller,
who I am so high on Brandon Miller now is not high at him
coming out of the draft, but it seems like he's getting better at creating
separation. But it's also kind of a concern when you look at his self
created looks. Next question from Rubik scalwll see we can get through all three
of theirs. Is there a reason why the meet doesn't distinguish between live ball
and dead ball turnovers? One of them has a much higher correlation with fast
break opportunities, and there's a much higher expected point value. It's a very
easy distinction to make between the two. I would say they absolutely do distinguish
between them. It's not publicly available. The publicly available stuff you can look
at a player, is it a lost ball or a bad pass turnover.
It would be cool to see more specific breakdowns publicly, but I can say
with reasonable certainty that teams are going to have the data between live ball and
dead ball turnovers. And I feel like we can get to maybe this publicly
available and not miss speaking, but I feel like we can get to a
point where now the NBA dot Com allows you to filter out, will not
filter out, but they will separate heaves in some of the shot tracking data.
We should be able to do that with live ball and dead ball turnovers.
And I think that's a great point, because one of them has a
much higher correlation to fast break opportunities. But I will say, you know,
even having a cleaning of the glass where its you can look specifically at
how teams are fairing in transition after they go in defense committed turnover, or
after they force a turnover. But like in those situations, it's kind of
implied though when you're looking at because dead ball turnovers in transition, so you
know those are going to be live ball turnovers, and so there is that
distinction a little bit. You can't be I guess you could be in transition
off a dead ball turnover that won't say much of the defense. I guess
you could be watching Milwaukee's defense. So yeah, it'd be cool to see
more of a breakdown there. Number three on a scale of being one to
ten, one being David Fizdale's take that for data and ten being coach pat
Riley talking about foul disparity on any given game day, where do you rate
Darko'reyakovic's outburst. I would really love to hear your thoughts on the first one,
but feel free to do which everyone you're like, oh, I did
all three, so hopefully like that one. So here's first of all,
I loved what Darko Royakovich did. I don't think we talked about on this
podcast. That was an epic rant. He called Scotty Barnes the future face
of the league. But my favorite part was when he said it was basically,
just tell us next time, so we won't even bother showing up.
I fucking love it's a it's an eleven out of ten. I don't know
that we have There's no I don't know. That might be one of the
most epic postgame rants we've ever seen. And because it's dark O Royakovic and
the Raptors aren't good and it's his first year as an NBA head coach,
will it be iconaissance the way that David Fizdal's take that for data is or
pat Riley And these are guys who are with big market teams when they were
coaching too. I hope it sticks because that is in my memory. I
mean, Mike Brown has had some I always think about Mike Brown with like
the po's and his leg is on the desk. Mike Brown has had some
pretty epic he said some pretty epic things, like he even had a really
good one this season as well. It did eleven out of ten. For
that. I loved everything about it. I'm all for coaches. I get
a little tired with the refs. Although the refs cost my team this game,
YadA, YadA, YadA. But when coaches are gonna stick up for
their players, and when they're gonna go do so to that degree, to
the point that it's impassioned hyperbole, I fucking love it. It was just
it's one of my favorite post game rants, and let's just break let's isolate
it to coaches, one of my favorite coaching rants of all time, like
shout out to shout out to Darko, because that deserves to be iconicized and
we need to celebrate the anniversary of it every single year. The part about
Scottie Barnes should be a meme. The part about, uh, should we
even bother tell us so we don't bother to show up? That should be
a reaction video. This was on the level of, like it wasn't when
Aisha Curry went this game is raised for money. I'm sorry, I just
saw it. I had to say something. It wasn't on that level of
ridiculousness, but it's on that level of should be tattooed to memory as that
type of a moment, And of course, on the level of a David
Fizdal I'll take that for data. That being a one though is feels super
low on the scale. But this is an eleven out of ten, no
question. Hope you all enjoyed this episode. We'll wrap up the We'll do
a fuller mail bag so you can still get your questions in. Join our
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one the only the Detroit Pistons primary free agent target this summer, Frank Nila Keina