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This is the in This League Fantasy
Podcast network, In This League Fantasy Baseball

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podcast online at in this League dot
com. Now here's your host, Bogman

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and the Welsh. What's up for
doz of Welcome into the ind This League

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Tennessee Baseball Podcast. The Profile series
continues today. We've got third base for

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you, but we're not ranking them. We are giving you all the juice

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you need to go into the new
year, whatever it is, stats,

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underlying stats, hot cold streaks.
We are telling you who these players were

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last year and we will set you
up, hopefully with the proper tools that

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you can make the proper assumptions on
how you want to value these players into

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the new year. And these will
also be things that help lead us into

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when we get into the rank series. Who are us? That is Scott

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Bogman on Twitter at Bogman's Sports.
You can find me at is at the

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Welsh and Boggs. Usually we don't
do any news. We just kind of,

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you know, set the table,
jump right into things that's gonna go

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by the wayside a little bit.
Because because Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Diamondbacks,

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yes, well so the big signing. Everybody's talking about all over the

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place, Eduardo to the d Backs. Just the NL champs get stronger.

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It's an uphill battle for everybody else, and that is the thing that everyone

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is concerned with. Right. No, actually you said it best a little

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bit earlier to me. We are
going to defer our old ways and we're

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going to take a new approach.
Because Shohetani has signed with the West Coast

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Evil Empire, the Los Angeles Dodgers
on a ten year, seven hundred million

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dollar deal. Okay, just in
the largest contract in sports history ever,

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largest guaranteed contract ever, absurd.
So many paths to this was so funny

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because the first path was John Morrissey
screwing everything up of Hilario. Oh,

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actually it happened before this. It
happened from all the bitching and crying about

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like show is not sharing information.
This is bad. No, this is

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not bad for anybody, but you
writers that want the inside track, you

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breaking news people. I don't care
a lot about that type of stuff.

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I just don't feel for breaking news
people like I also am not gonna call

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for their job. By the way, if they don't do something correctly,

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that's insane to me. But I
just don't care about them. If that

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is your business and you have three
cell phones and you break news, okay,

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whatever I feel on sympathy, I
also don't really care about you and

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you're crying about good to break the
I mean, has Morosi forgiven my ignorance,

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because, like you said, I'm
not like refreshing Twitter all day every

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day to see who signed. I
used to be like that. I don't

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know, it's just I have too
much going on. Doesn't break Users can

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ask, yeah, well, yeah, well I know he breaks news,

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but has he screwed up on multiple
occasions like Bob Nightingale, Like the reason

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people than Gail is because he messes
everything up. Like, well, that's

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the second level. We're not even
to that where I'm just saying he wrote

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an article about how it was bad
for baseball that show he wasn't sharing information.

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Then the next step, so you
must have miss that. The next

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step was Morrisey completely batching the whole
Toronto plane incident and saying he's going to

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be a Toronto Blue Jay, absolute
disaster, and then him having apologies,

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which that never apologize for that.
Well, if I were him, well,

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okay, and I understand that you're
gonna miss I mean, maybe,

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hey, look I missed. You
know, maybe it's not an apology.

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It's just like maybe it's just saying
I'm not gonna apologize, right like I

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missed. Sometimes you miss on these
things. You'd just be like I took

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someone's information and I was wrong.
That's like that what I would say.

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I'd be like someone I trusted,
I kind of ran with it. It

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didn't end up being wrong. Like, the only thing that affected at the

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end of the day that I saw
was like when I'm watching all this stuff

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on MLB network and every GM they're
giving the possibility of where oh Tawny signs

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and what day it is. And
I don't know how much of that you

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paid attention to, but they were
doing on MLB network all day and like

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everybody was picking the blue Jays.
That's the only thing in effect that I

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don't think people are gonna remember that
after the Winter Meetings, nobody what would

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have been funny is to pay attention
to the betting market. I don't know

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if that flipped a little bit.
That correct that. Okay, So there

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was that. Then the third piece, Otani breaks his own news fantastic love

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every step of it. The fourth
piece, I didn't like the news itself.

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No, it's stinks. It's uh
bye bye to the Diamondbacks. You

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had one year, you had one
opportunity. That's why you go and pay

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and sell out and get all the
pictures you can because now you're going to

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annually have to go up against Betts, Freeman and Otani. So that was

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fun. Good thing you've got Johannio
Suarez to compete, But that was fun.

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The fourth piece was the contract set
ten years, seven hundred million,

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and I didn't care care about it. People are making a big deal.

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I didn't care about it until I
actually looked. I am shocked at this.

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This is the most taxed lawyerism that
a lawyer could lawyer and tax because

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sixty eight million dollars annually is being
deferred. Quick math. Ten years,

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six hundred and eighty million dollars.
That leaves twenty million dollars more quick math.

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That is two million dollars per year
as a base salary. Holy crap.

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People are up in arms about it. I'm not going to write an

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article about it. I'm not going
to cry, and I'm not going to

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ask for anyone's head or anything about
that. But I look at that and

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go, that's something that's not going
to be around in a year or two.

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They just found the little tiny loophole
of loopholes to do this. There's

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no way you can keep doing it. And someone asked me, and I'm

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going to shut up here in a
second, Bog. Someone asked me,

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what do I think about it?
And I was just like, this is

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bad for baseball. That's how I
think about it. Having a player be

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able to sign seven hundred million dollars
with absolutely no cap, that's bad for

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baseball. What's worse for baseball is
a a team and a league that is

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allowing the player to have I don't
know the quick map, ninety percent of

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their salary per year pushed to future
years. That's crazy. It is such

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bad business. It's not funny.
It's reminiscent Bogs. I had likened it

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to someone of like how a player
in the NBA gets paid twenty five million

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dollars, gets bought out and then
can go sign for a league minimum with

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a super team. But it's worse. It's even worse because there's no cap

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to it. So I I think
it's just bad for baseball and it's stinky

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and I am shocked like knowing the
details of the contract. But at the

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end of the day, none of
it changes anything for anybody. The Dodgers

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just have more flexibility and they are
creating baseball's super teams. Yeah. I

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haven't dug deep on the contract stuff
yet. I know a bunch of those

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articles just posted last night, and
so I do need to read them.

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But I'm not sure, like does
this don't they still are? They still

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tax on the luxury tax? So
it did sayin said that the competitive balance

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tax hit on the contract will be
around forty six million dollars. But what

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is not clear here is that per
year or is that that's got to be

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per year one time or how does
that? What is I don't know the

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significance of this. Well I know
that so you know, the luxury tax

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is a fake salary cap. So
it's like you go over that. Every

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dollar you spend over that, you
pay a dollar into the competitive balance tax

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whatever, blah blah blah. That's
why teams like you know, the Marlins

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and Rays can be they're in the
black on day one because they get this

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competitive balance check and it pays for
their entire salary, so they're in the

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black on day one. That's that's
what the A's are. They're basically just

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making money off of that check every
single year because they're not paying their players

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enough. So yeah, look it's
bad for baseball. Like you said,

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it stretches the imbalance out even more
than we've seen. But it's also not

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surprising. I mean, the Dodgers
were the highest signing, you know odds

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before the off season. That's the
one that you thought the whole time until

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we started to hear all these blue
jay rumors, Uh, that was going

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to happen. I will, I
never wavered, but yeah, I always

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thought it was gonna I was hoping
it was just gonna be anybody else,

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but it ended up being the Dodgers, and now we get to hate him.

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So that's that. It is craziness. But what really matters from the

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fantasy Perspectivelet's get the rest of these
dominoes falling now exactly, and we are

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going to get more of those.
It's set. The Dodgers are set,

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and they have more wiggle room.
And I had mentioned kind of almost jokingly,

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but I was like, how much
of that deferred money is it going

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to be that's gonna pay Yamamoto,
and they're in it. They are in

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it. They're gonna sign somebody.
They're gonna bring back Kershaw, they're gonna

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get a picture, They're gonna make
big moves. Yet the market still has

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not been hyper aggressive. We still
have multiple big free agents that are out

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there, so it's gonna be very, very interesting to watch. There was

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a free agent signing that's going to
affect this episode just a tiny bit that

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we're going to talk about at third
base because of some of the latest rumors

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that popped up. So this is
third base enough of that we're going to

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be profiling all of these players here
in just a second. We do want

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to tell you guys to come on
and check us out over at in this

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League dot com the reasons you kind
of know already. Christmas Special is coming

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up December twenty second. We would
love to have you there. But also

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we've got tons of ranks this week
as this episode is airing. The goal

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is Prospect, Dynasty, and Redraft
all dropping this week. It might push

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into the weekend for at least one
of them, but that is what I'm

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currently going through. The redraft I
was working on Dynasty last night. We've

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also added the Prospect ONEADP. It's
a top two hundred and eighty p system

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for prospects, which is crazy cool. I've always loved it and I just

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did an episode of Prospect one on
it, So hopefully you guys want to

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check all that out. Those are
a few of the reasons. We also

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have a great community. It's how
you take part and stuff, and it's

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not insane by any means. It's
literally the same price it's been since we

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started it for day one. We've
kind of kept to that. We'll see

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if that keeps going, but we
kept to that. So come on check

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us out in this league dot com, in this league dot com, take

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you to our Patreon. I think
that's it. I think we're ready to

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start profiling these guys here bogs put
a bunch of stuff together. This is

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the last in the series of what
I wrote in the Black Book, So

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if you guys want to check out, Black Book might be released in I

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haven't gotten any official words. I
know what the release date was supposed to

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be, and it would be you
made it push back, right, I

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mean I probably was the I probably
had the last thing for sure. I

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had submitted most of it, but
I definitely pushed beyond the deadline. But

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there was a lot to do.
Shortstops took a lot. But this is

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the last at least of what's in
the profiling of what I've done. So

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I'll have some stuff to add here. So let's take a quick break.

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When we come back, it's time
to take a look at all of these

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bad boys, how the NFBC is
looking at it, what projections might be,

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and ultimately how was that performance last
year? And we'll do it right

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after this. I swear to God, I'll pistol whip the next guy that

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says he in this league. Hey, Barva, what's the name of that

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restaurant? You? Life? Of
all the Mazurellists me in this league?

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All right, third base profiles,
it looks like there is right around ten

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third basement inside the top one hundred
of the early NFBC. Again, we

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like to and we like to,
and we are using the NFBC data for

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just kind of ranking them and creating
self done tiers because I say it a

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million times to the annoying point,
these aren't like our ranks. Just because

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we're going to talk about a certain
player at like, let's say the third

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position, doesn't mean that's where we're
ranking them. It's where they're being drafted,

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and it, you know, might
completely change as things go on.

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There's still a whole lot of time, and how about this, I can

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just throw this at the very top, not that we're going to really talk

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about him, but we already have
one person off the board. Ronnie Mauricio

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suffered a torn ACL in the Dominican
Winner League today. It actually happened yesterday,

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but as we're recording this on the
twelfth, it's been announced he has

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a torn ACL that's going to have
him missed the season. And what that

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does is that lowers the competition that's
there, and then that I think puts

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Brett Batty in a better spot.
It does. Brett Batty was not very

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good last year though, so b
hard hit numbers, but yeah, everything

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else kind of stunk. Yeah,
So I'm just not one hundred percent sure

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what the solution is. It's Viento's
wendel Zach short. Yeah, it looks

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like it's probably unless they make a
significant move, it's probably going to be

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a big, ugly mix at third
base for the Mets right now. I

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think it's one of two things.
What you said, big move, They

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go and decide, hey, we're
spinning on Matt Chapman. You know we're

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not going to screw around. Or
it is what seems likely a platoon of

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Baty and Vento's Vento's up against Righty's, Baty up or I'm sorry, Beaty

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up against Righty's, Vento's up against
left and they platoon that spot, which

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makes them less valuable. It makes
Baity more valuable because you're just going to

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go up against more rities. So
that would probably be the guy, but

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he is already off the table.
That takes us to the number one player.

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The only guy that is sought after
as a first rounder, but kind

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of the cheapest cost, at least
that we've had in quite a few years.

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That's Jose Ramirez, who has an
NFBC ADP of thirteen stats from last

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year twenty four homers, twenty eight
stolen bases, did it again, eighty

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seven runs, eighty rbi. He
hit two point eighty two pretty solid OBP,

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three point fifty six slug four to
seventy five ops eight thirty one.

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Probably the most impressive marker here too, is he was in the top four

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percentele of the league. I believe
in XBA that was working in his favor

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of the expected batting average. So
obviously if you're you know, you're processing

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that that is better batting average than
he actually had. A Couple other things

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I'll just throw out to you just
in my profile here. Five of the

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last six years, he's now had
twenty plus homers in twenty stolen bases,

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and a two eighty or higher batting
average three of the last four years.

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Power has ticked down a little bit, of course, but drive line percentage

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line drive percentage, not drive line. Line drive percentage went up twenty two

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point four percent, which was the
highest he's had since twenty and sixteen.

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While his launch angle dipped to eighteen
degrees, which is which is actually a

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really good one, but it's the
lowest for him since twenty seventeen. So,

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like why those things are important is
he had a decrease in hard hit

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that went down to one eleven,
and he has been around one twelve fourteen.

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And then he also wasn't getting the
ball in the air as much and

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he was having line drive, so
that just equated to maybe the power numbers

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coming down. This was another interesting
one. He struggled against sliders this year,

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hitting only two twenty one, but
he had an expected batting average of

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two eighty five again sliders, and
he finished with a two eighty or higher

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expected batting average on every single pitch
that he saw ten percent or more of

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the time. That's just telling you
there's some underperformance where he should have been

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performing at a higher level. And
that is like the positive aggression stuff you

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can look at. So you have
to figure out, like, you know,

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is that hard hit launch angle maybe
a sign of where the future is

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or is that all the storytelling you, like, hey, he could have

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been better and everything else is still
in like a decent spot line drive.

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Jose Ramirez is still great bogs.
Yeah, look, I love Jose Ramirez.

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He's so much fun to watch.
Like you said, he's one of

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the few third basemen that offers you
stolen bases and power with consistency, because

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there's guys that offer you both.
But you know, we talked about Elie

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da la Cruz in shortstop a lot, but I mean he's the next highest

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officially ranked third baseman, and you
know, he ended completely cold, and

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he's young, and he has wild
streaks, so he offers both, but

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it comes with an enormous floor.
This is a high floor player in Jseermeres,

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which is why even after a quote
unquote down year where you know he

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only had he was only in the
eighties and runs in RBIs he didn't crack

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thirty on stolen bases or homers.
That's a down year for Jose right,

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but it's still an amazing year and
third base is really thin still. So

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that is why he is so valuable
and he's gonna continue to be. The

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negative about him to me is this
lineup is not good around him. It's

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it's not It's probably not as bad
as you know it was at the end

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of last year because you do have
Kwan at the top him and Az his

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hit or miss Naylor behind him is
good. Hopefully we see Manzardo get you

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know, a true spot in this
line up up in a high spot,

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but a lineup around him is not
very good. He would be better if

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he was traded somewhere. I do
think Cleveland is on the brink of deciding

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what they need to do. Are
they going to push the chips in and

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try to get bats and go with
the staff or they going to trade the

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staff off and hit the reset button
here. But yeah, I mean Josiermier

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is the first round talent, no
doubt. Yeah, he's always going to

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lack a little bit in the RBI
run department, kind of what you said,

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unless it was an elite offense around. But the last thing I'll share

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to you with everything we're talking about, you know, underperformance here there blah

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blah blah. This I thought was
like the most fun. He had the

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second biggest differential between his actual home
run total and his expected home run total

258
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:45,000
in all of baseball. He had
an expected home run total of five point

259
00:17:45,039 --> 00:17:48,799
one more homers, which would have
put him at twenty nine. So he

260
00:17:49,559 --> 00:17:55,640
expected knockouts because he had the it
was always one. It's always it's always

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expected one. Whether he gets it
or not, it's a it's a high

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total there. So you know,
I think the floor is great for Jose

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Ramirez. He's proven that and even
on whatever is perceived as like the down

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year, there's still a lot supporting
it. Number two on the list is

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far and we've already talked ab us. We're actually not going to go into

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a ton If you want to listen
to more of it. It's in the

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shortstop episode. But I do have
an anecdotal thing. Here is Ellie day

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La Cruz. He's twentieth. On
NFBC, we talked about the big strikeout

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numbers, the bad splits at the
end of the year. I'm want to

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throw this at you. There was
a report that was floating out there because

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there was no reason that the Reds
needed to sign jam Or candel Ario.

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That one shocked a little bit of
all of us. And because what do

273
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they have. They got plenty of
infielders. They had Spencer steerrom There,

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Christian Carnahan, strand Well. The
report out there is indicating that nothing is

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00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,599
being handed over to Ellie day la
Cruz, and that the candel Arios signing

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00:18:52,559 --> 00:18:56,279
could potentially indicate that Ellie might not
be a lock to make the opening day

277
00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:00,799
roster. I will tell you I
don't really buy it. I think he

278
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,480
makes it. He is the future
of this team. If he were not

279
00:19:03,599 --> 00:19:07,880
to make it, that indicates one
of two things. That would indicate they

280
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,920
say Noelvie and Ellie both go,
or they're picking the Welvy over Ellie.

281
00:19:12,039 --> 00:19:17,480
I don't think that's going to happen, but it does give a little bit

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00:19:17,559 --> 00:19:21,640
of doubt out there. And Candelario
in Cincinnati is a really good that probably

283
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,720
won't put a big focus on him, but expected numbers, the only park

284
00:19:25,759 --> 00:19:30,200
you had to expected thirty plus homers
was in Cincinnati for him, So there's

285
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,079
an overall offensive boost for Candelario.
Just monitor it, monitor it. With

286
00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:37,559
those high costs and FBC, I
see why people take the risk. I'm

287
00:19:37,599 --> 00:19:40,559
more and more in just like my
standard, like my home leagues, and

288
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,200
I just don't know if I'm going
to do it with me being able to

289
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,519
get stolen bases everywhere, I just
don't know if the risk at top twenty

290
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,440
we've already done all that. Yeah, but even that throwing out there,

291
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:52,119
they really do have a lot of
options. And this might be a little

292
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,480
bit of like we haven't traded India
yet, so there's still a lot of

293
00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:00,240
flexibility once they trade India. Like
McLain is the second baseman, so you

294
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,960
would have to be like, oh, you're going to take Noelvie over Ellie,

295
00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:06,559
which I don't think they do,
but they're trying to poke at us.

296
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:10,359
Yeah, there's too much here to
take him at twenty. We know

297
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:15,519
that that's so you have the high
ceiling, high floors, so just enormous

298
00:20:15,559 --> 00:20:18,720
amount of variants. The fact that
they did cite in Candelario, so somebody's

299
00:20:18,759 --> 00:20:26,799
out Dela Cruz Marte or CS.
One of those guys is pushed off in

300
00:20:26,039 --> 00:20:32,079
every single day well starting role CSKA
DH. He could be the DH for

301
00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:34,640
the team they have Indian now and
I know the plans are to trade India,

302
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,920
but it hasn't happened. So,
you know, just in terms of

303
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,799
being out there every day, it
seems like one of those guys could be

304
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:47,720
pushed off of a job. So
there's just too much there to take him

305
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,240
in the top twenty. I you
know, if he fell a little bit,

306
00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:52,240
I would love to take the risk
on him, but there's too many

307
00:20:52,279 --> 00:20:55,960
good players going in this range.
It's the same thing we talked about last

308
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,359
time. To do it so the
rest of the third basement in this group,

309
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,119
while Shore the other third baseman.
Yeah, and the only last thing

310
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,920
I just want to say is like
I do think this late in the draft

311
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:10,319
season you can stomach doing this with
Ellie and NFBC because you can make up

312
00:21:10,319 --> 00:21:14,400
for it for the deals you get
later come January or come February March.

313
00:21:14,799 --> 00:21:18,039
I do think you're gonna see Ellie
drop unless he's like, you know,

314
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,599
not striking out in spring training or
whatever. Next up, number three,

315
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:23,440
though, is the guy right after
him, And this is where it's tough

316
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,319
to not take. This guy is
Austin Riley, who played one hundred and

317
00:21:27,319 --> 00:21:30,799
fifty nine games this year. Is
a top two. Is a two round

318
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,759
guy. Hit two eighty one with
thirty seven homers, one hundred and seventeen

319
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:37,640
runs, which led the position ninety
seven RBI. He had a five to

320
00:21:37,759 --> 00:21:44,759
sixteen slug and a eight sixty one
ops three forty five OBP. Didn't light

321
00:21:44,799 --> 00:21:47,400
anything up. A couple of notes
I have on him. Thirty seven homers

322
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:52,680
led all third basemen, and he
was the only one at the position to

323
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,839
have twenty five or more homers with
a batting average of two eighty or more.

324
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,000
So remember like Jozer Ramirez got there, but he didn't get twenty five

325
00:22:00,319 --> 00:22:04,960
five sixteen slugging percentage, which was
the third straight year he's done it.

326
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,480
Jake Berger was the only other qualified
hitter to have that number. He also

327
00:22:10,559 --> 00:22:15,720
had a or five to fourteen expected
slug which was top eight percent tile of

328
00:22:15,759 --> 00:22:18,039
the League. He hit the ball
hard. He continues to get better.

329
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,799
And what you gotta love, he
lowered to strike up percentage now to the

330
00:22:22,839 --> 00:22:26,640
lowest over three years and a career
low chase rate. He dropped it down

331
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:30,440
to twenty seven percent. You talk
about floor on a great offense that is

332
00:22:30,519 --> 00:22:34,720
Riley. There are just no stolen
bases to speak of. But you want

333
00:22:34,759 --> 00:22:40,079
mid thirty homers one hundred hundred with
a good batting average. That is your

334
00:22:40,079 --> 00:22:42,039
guy, and that's why he's the
second round pick and everything else supports it.

335
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,640
Yeah, look, I mean,
get your swipes somewhere else. Right,

336
00:22:45,799 --> 00:22:49,240
take this guy, stick him at
third. Know that you have an

337
00:22:49,279 --> 00:22:53,720
elite third baseman and at a position
that is still fairly weak in my opinion,

338
00:22:55,279 --> 00:23:00,519
and you know, just roll with
him. The worry was last year

339
00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:03,799
and maybe the year before that at
the batting average isn't going to stay.

340
00:23:03,799 --> 00:23:07,519
The batting average isn't gonna stay.
It stayed. So you know a guy

341
00:23:07,599 --> 00:23:12,240
that looking at all of his advanced
numbers, the fifteenth and max exit EL

342
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:17,200
seventeenth and average exit v LO,
he hits the ball hard. He stings

343
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:18,640
it when he gets a hold of
it. He's getting a hold of it

344
00:23:18,759 --> 00:23:25,000
a lot. And you know,
all these numbers are great, there's really

345
00:23:25,319 --> 00:23:29,079
what a strikeout percentage? Fifth percentage
is a little low, and it's just

346
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:30,920
below league average. Who cares.
You're not gonna get the swipes. I

347
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,880
understand that, but they're coming cheaper
and cheaper, So get him somewhere else

348
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:41,920
and get yourself Austin Riley. This
is I would love to invest in Riley

349
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:45,400
in that second round. And he's
the reason why I would love to pick

350
00:23:45,519 --> 00:23:49,000
in late in the first round is
to take him on the way back.

351
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,079
Yeah, there's just a handful of
plays. Like it's no surprise, but

352
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,200
I feel like people look and they're
like, oh, I can't take this

353
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,720
guy because he doesn't have stolen basis. But like, there's a reason that

354
00:23:59,759 --> 00:24:03,799
these uniquely incredible hitters are in the
top two rounds without stolen bases is because

355
00:24:03,799 --> 00:24:08,359
the floor is there. Matt Olsen
elite power, Corey Seeger four categories of

356
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:15,400
elite, Riley judge. There's a
reason that you can stomach it is because

357
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:21,680
these floors are so high. Riley
always teetered that he's there. Now justifiably

358
00:24:21,839 --> 00:24:25,519
you could take Riley above Olsen.
I'm not doing it. But if you

359
00:24:25,599 --> 00:24:27,880
want that third base locked up,
you kind of alluded to it before that

360
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,720
it's thin. I actually don't really
necessarily agree that the position is thin,

361
00:24:33,039 --> 00:24:37,240
but it is elite thin you want, like, I don't have to ever

362
00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:40,920
think about this again. I think
it's three deep. And then there are

363
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,480
question marks. But there are guys
that I like, probably a lot more

364
00:24:44,519 --> 00:24:48,000
than others that are like the fifteen
to sixteen range. I understand that,

365
00:24:48,039 --> 00:24:52,839
And there's some guys that could have
big bounce back years. So there are

366
00:24:52,839 --> 00:24:56,160
those possibilities. But let me ask
you this. If you're pairing together a

367
00:24:56,200 --> 00:25:02,240
shortstop third baseman combo right, would
you rather go with Riley and then oneo

368
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:08,480
Cruz at shortstop who is right around
eighty five? Or you could take Seeger

369
00:25:10,079 --> 00:25:15,440
right, and then you could go
with Josh Young. I love me Seger,

370
00:25:15,519 --> 00:25:18,599
but yeah, I mean, I'm
all in on O'Neill Cruz. I

371
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:23,680
probably do that, but I'm still
not gonna take Riley above Seeger. I'm

372
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:30,400
gonna be hard on hard on drafting
this year. Your point is great,

373
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,920
but it's not gonna make me change
the strategy of taking Seeger. But if

374
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,359
given those pairings, yeah, I'm
not a big josh young guy. This

375
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,759
year you're gonna move on. Well, that's the range, like, that's

376
00:25:40,799 --> 00:25:44,079
where O'Neal Cruz is going. You
know, yeah, uh, you could

377
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,960
have Aeronauto's in there. Bregman's a
little bit lower guys like that. You're

378
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,920
in a fifth you're in a fifteen
team league, and let's say something crazy

379
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,480
happens in an ideal, non stolen
based target world. I'm going Seegar Olsen.

380
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,519
I think that's an absurd combination.
But guess what I'm not against segart

381
00:26:00,559 --> 00:26:03,599
Riley. I think Segar Riley could
work. You have to target stolen bases

382
00:26:03,599 --> 00:26:07,599
a little bit later, but he
provides that floor. Those two would give

383
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:14,920
you good great batting average, incredibly
good run RBI, and more than enough

384
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,759
power in a power depleted spot.
The next guy up, though, all

385
00:26:18,799 --> 00:26:22,319
the love and accolades we give to
Austin Riley, we really should not also

386
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:26,039
have an appreciation for because I think
this is another one of those like underperforming

387
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,880
type of guys. Is Raphael Devers
two seventy one batting average, thirty three

388
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,039
homers, one hundred rbi, ninety
runs, hit, three point fifty one

389
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,799
OVP, which was higher than Riley
also had a five hundred slug. I

390
00:26:37,839 --> 00:26:41,680
think I mentioned there were like two
guys that had that. Maybe I said

391
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,720
two, it was three. It
was Devers, Riley and Jake Berger both

392
00:26:45,759 --> 00:26:51,440
had that in eight fifty one.
Ops. There's a lot of mirrored stuff

393
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:56,400
when you're looking at him, little
anecdotal things I'll just throw to you.

394
00:26:56,680 --> 00:27:00,240
He had the highest expected slug of
any third basement so he had a five

395
00:27:00,279 --> 00:27:04,880
hundred slug. He had a five
thirty nine expected slug, which is pret

396
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,359
welth in the league. Expected slug. Yeah, he ranked in the top

397
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:15,599
five percentile in UH average and max
exit velocity, which is good he had.

398
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,519
His biggest change was he had a
career high fifty five point one percent

399
00:27:18,599 --> 00:27:22,880
hard hit percentage, which was in
the top two percent of the league.

400
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:27,480
And he also posted a fifty percent
or higher hard hit rate against any pitch

401
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,599
thrown to him that he saw double
digit amount of the time. I loved

402
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:36,880
that one specifically because you'll see guys
that'll get like nine different pitches thrown to

403
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,319
them, but the majority of it, it's like eighty five percent. Usually

404
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:44,799
around that range is you know,
the double digits every pitch that was thrown

405
00:27:44,839 --> 00:27:48,799
double digit percentage percentage of the time
fifty percent or harder hard hit rate.

406
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,119
So it wasn't like he was just
mashing fastballs. And I say all of

407
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:56,079
this to also tell you, guys, do that there are some guys that

408
00:27:56,160 --> 00:28:00,839
have like sixty percent hard hit rates
against fastballs and like thirty against breaking pitches

409
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:06,160
and stuff like that. That wasn't
the case. Devers was consistently making contact

410
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:10,400
across the board. And the last
thing I'll just throw to you is some

411
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:15,599
of the underperformance, if you want
to view it as that was his babbit.

412
00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:21,559
It fell below three hundred for the
first time ever, and projections definitely

413
00:28:21,559 --> 00:28:26,480
see him going in a different direction
because like change ups, specifically he hit

414
00:28:26,519 --> 00:28:30,880
two twenty one against he had a
too eighty seven XBA. So all of

415
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,960
those things are to say, like
sometimes you get outliers on pitches, the

416
00:28:33,039 --> 00:28:37,160
expected numbers are better. The babbit
was low, and he still had freaking

417
00:28:37,599 --> 00:28:41,960
you know, best hard hit rates
and put up monster numbers. Rafael Devers

418
00:28:41,119 --> 00:28:47,960
is perennially underappreciated, Yes, and
I think and I don't think of going

419
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:51,640
out on a limb. I think
Devers is easily the better hitter than Riley,

420
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,960
and Riley's a very good hitter.
But I think that when you're looking

421
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,440
at this and splitting hairs, they're
both good hitters. Riley's surrounded by MVP

422
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,480
candidates in his lineup, you know, Devers is not. So that is

423
00:29:03,519 --> 00:29:08,839
the difference breaker to me between these
two. But they're both, you know,

424
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,319
back into the first round, early
in the second round, picks that

425
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:18,079
solidify you at a position that's you
know, to me, not as deep

426
00:29:18,079 --> 00:29:19,720
as I would like it. But
these are set it and forget it guys

427
00:29:19,759 --> 00:29:23,680
that you do have to invest in, but they're going to pay you off

428
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:27,839
as long as they are healthy.
So I love investing in both these guys.

429
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:32,160
Look, I was in the same
spot last year, right and Machado

430
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:37,920
and Aeronauto were not worth taking in
the spot. So I understand having reluctance

431
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,480
to go back to the third base
well in the second round because of those

432
00:29:41,519 --> 00:29:45,200
hundred performers. But I just don't
think, you know, Austin Riley was

433
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,160
in that group, Devers was a
little bit behind them last year. Now

434
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:53,039
they're up here and they're the guys
that were picking from and I feel like

435
00:29:53,079 --> 00:29:57,680
I trust them more than I did
those guys last year. So I'm still

436
00:29:57,799 --> 00:30:02,480
very very high on both these dudes. A lot of that the underlying stuff

437
00:30:02,519 --> 00:30:07,319
I talked about, and the underperformance
on Babbitt is driving what is a pretty

438
00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:11,920
wild projection. He is projected to
have the most homers, the most runs,

439
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,279
and the best batting average of like
what matters there might be Like if

440
00:30:15,279 --> 00:30:18,480
I can let me click on average
real quick, there might be somebody that's

441
00:30:18,559 --> 00:30:22,279
higher. Nick Madrigal has the same
projector who gives a crap about Nick Madrigal

442
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:29,279
Dev's best batting average among any of
the third basemen, most runs, most

443
00:30:29,279 --> 00:30:34,359
homers, and is the only projected
third baseman projected to have one hundred runs

444
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,359
and one hundred RBI. So like, systems love Devers, but we also

445
00:30:38,519 --> 00:30:41,519
like we don't need the systems to
like it. Like we like, Yeah,

446
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:45,559
there were some underperformance, and the
supporting cast is getting better, a

447
00:30:45,599 --> 00:30:49,839
healthy story, Yoshida getting on base
a bit more. They got some young

448
00:30:51,119 --> 00:30:55,359
Tristan Cossas moving up. These are
good signs for Devers. You kind of

449
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:56,640
wish you got a little bit better
of a discount, you know, you

450
00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,359
wish, like, oh, people
don't love him, He's still going in

451
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,359
the second round. But if you
were in a fifteen team league and you

452
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,319
too, you were drafting like five
or six, and you got you know,

453
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,559
Tatis or something like that, or
Tucker and then you were able to

454
00:31:10,559 --> 00:31:14,799
get Devors go buy a lottery ticket, you should be super happy about that.

455
00:31:14,799 --> 00:31:18,480
That's a really great sign. I
would argue the ADPs don't really show

456
00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:22,599
it, but this is kind of
a like you didn't break the tier,

457
00:31:22,599 --> 00:31:26,359
but I would kind of break the
tier here because I think these next I

458
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:30,200
wasn't sure what to do, to
be honest, because the ADP is so

459
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,680
close between the It is so but
I'm I'm going to just say, like,

460
00:31:33,839 --> 00:31:38,400
that's for our purposes. That's going
to end this elite of elite tier.

461
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:42,880
So when when Bogman says, hey, you know, this thin position

462
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,720
is thin, it wasn't there.
Now we're going to start toeing our putting

463
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,200
our toe in the water here a
little bit. Yeah maybe it's yeah,

464
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,680
no Rex Ryan stuff that we might
start getting some questions. The next two

465
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,759
players have ADPs in the thirty two
fifty range, so these are still top

466
00:32:00,799 --> 00:32:07,079
fifty players, but they are the
utes. You've got Gunner Henderson Gunner Henderson

467
00:32:07,079 --> 00:32:09,839
one hundred and fifty games played,
had twenty eight homers and ten stolen bases.

468
00:32:10,319 --> 00:32:15,200
Phenomenal those phenomenal numbers outside of Eli
and Jose. Obviously, Gunner with

469
00:32:15,319 --> 00:32:21,279
more stolen bases than probably he's like
at least top five in stolen bases at

470
00:32:21,279 --> 00:32:24,680
the position in the top one hundred, one hundred runs eighty two RBI had

471
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:29,920
a three twenty five OBP, which
wasn't phenomenal or anything like that, but

472
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,759
it is weighted bogs by some big
splits that he ended up having this year.

473
00:32:35,079 --> 00:32:38,640
Yeah, I mean for Gunner Henderson, he's on the right side of

474
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:45,319
the lefty righty split. But the
lefties were bad two oh nine versus lefties

475
00:32:45,359 --> 00:32:47,960
two seventy two versus righty. So, like I said, he's on the

476
00:32:49,039 --> 00:32:51,839
right side of that split, which
is I mean, I didn't even mention

477
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,759
it, but Jose Ramiers had a
little bit of a split right two forty

478
00:32:53,759 --> 00:32:58,640
three against lefty, three to zero
two against righty's, so it didn't dip

479
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,680
as far down as Gunner did it
two nine. But he's on the right

480
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,920
side of it. Most pictures are
righty's. Uh, he's hitting better than

481
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,000
two seventy against rdy, so it's
batting average of two point fifty five.

482
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,799
We'd like to see it come up. But he's gonna have to make significant

483
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:19,680
improvements against lefties if he wants to
join Riley Endeavors and Ellie up in this

484
00:33:19,759 --> 00:33:23,319
next or add solar bases which you
know, way more solar bases. Ten

485
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,400
isn't bad, but he's gonna have
to a You gotta get to twenty to

486
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,480
get into that group without greatly improving
these splits here. I think twenty is

487
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,759
the thing that gets him into a
first rounder. I'll add something to that

488
00:33:35,839 --> 00:33:38,279
and then just well, I'll do
these first. If you're looking for some

489
00:33:38,319 --> 00:33:43,400
of the underlying stuff. Elite hard
hit metrics fifty two percent hard hit rate,

490
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:46,799
which ranked top five percentile of the
league, one thirteen point eight max

491
00:33:46,839 --> 00:33:52,440
exit velocity, and a ninety two
percent average EV which I know some people

492
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,119
don't care about. I still like
to relatively care about hitting the hard high

493
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:59,599
time. Yeah. Yeah, the
problem is if it's weighted to like you

494
00:33:59,599 --> 00:34:04,680
know, like little dribblers and stuff
like that. But those both were in

495
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,159
the top nine percentile of the league. He had a top ten at the

496
00:34:07,159 --> 00:34:10,719
position. Barrel rate eleven point four
percent. But this speaks to what you

497
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:15,320
were talking about with the lefty thing. Not only did he struggle from a

498
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:22,079
batting average standpoint, he generated twenty
five of his twenty eight homers against righty's.

499
00:34:22,559 --> 00:34:25,679
Twenty five of twenty eight came against
righty's, not lefties, so like

500
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:30,440
it's not platoony, but you gotta
that's got to improve, and he has

501
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,840
lots of underlying hard hit metrics that
really support that. So if he can

502
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,639
just get into like relatively league average
as far as being able to hit lefties,

503
00:34:39,039 --> 00:34:42,840
you might be looking at a thirty
five plus homer guy. Maybe he

504
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,960
steals a little bit more, he
barrels and hits the ball really hard.

505
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:49,639
Everything works really well in his favor, none of which I meant to like

506
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,760
be dismissive about him. You should
be excited about him, and you're gonna

507
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,400
have to draft him pretty high,
and he is kind of worth that.

508
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,920
The other guy is Royce Lewis,
who played a lot less games, only

509
00:35:00,079 --> 00:35:02,760
fifty eight. That's almost one hundred
less than Gunner, but he had fifteen

510
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:07,920
homers while hitting three zero nine six
stolen bases, had a three seventy two

511
00:35:08,039 --> 00:35:13,079
OBP to go along with fifty two
home. Fifty two RBI in fifty eight

512
00:35:13,119 --> 00:35:16,679
games is wildly big number. He
had a nine to twenty one OPS,

513
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:22,119
which doesn't qualify, but that is
the highest ops of any third basement on

514
00:35:22,159 --> 00:35:27,440
this list. But it's again it's
only in fifty eight games. But again

515
00:35:27,519 --> 00:35:30,800
there are like there's injuries, and
there's some split stuff we look at With

516
00:35:31,119 --> 00:35:34,880
Royce Lewis, I mean, I
really didn't know what to do with him,

517
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,000
Like because just based on ADP,
you can throw Gunner in with Riley

518
00:35:38,039 --> 00:35:42,719
Endevers if you want, because he's
only five, he's going five spots below

519
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,679
Devers, right, but Royce is
at forty three, so he's thirteen spots

520
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:51,360
away from Gunner. And then the
next third baseman who will get to in

521
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,440
a second is Machado going at seventy
four. So Royce Lewis is kind of

522
00:35:55,480 --> 00:36:00,480
in no man's land in terms of
ADP kind of floats as you know,

523
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:07,559
a third round pick of third basemen
only and the only one in the third

524
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:14,199
or fourth round, so it's kind
of weird. But this is a great

525
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,800
player. You know the risk though, this is an injury risk. So

526
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:22,519
if you take Royce. I think
you got to back him up somewhat,

527
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:27,960
you know, somewhat soon if you
take him so great player, underlying numbers

528
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,920
are awesome. If he's in there, he's good, we know that,

529
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:35,880
but it's how much is he going
to be in there with an extensive injury

530
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,559
history at how young he is.
So that's the risk you're taking with Royce.

531
00:36:39,159 --> 00:36:43,079
Yeah, and I've took that risk
in a mock, just kind of

532
00:36:43,079 --> 00:36:47,679
playing around. I think he is
worthwhile of risk, but you know,

533
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:52,400
it's a little bit more apparent just
because of the injury stuff. It's something

534
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,199
we've got to pay attention to,
for sure. So Royce Lewis comes in

535
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:59,920
as a top fifty on the ADP
here with maybe some split concerns. That

536
00:37:00,079 --> 00:37:04,400
now takes us to a bigger tier. And again I do think there is

537
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,360
a little break like I would almost, but I get why you did this.

538
00:37:07,639 --> 00:37:09,639
There's a guy at the end of
this tier that I don't think belongs

539
00:37:09,679 --> 00:37:14,360
to these guys, but he's so
far off from the next group. That's

540
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,159
why this position is kind of weird. We'll get there, Manny Machado.

541
00:37:17,599 --> 00:37:21,880
This is one I know that a
lot of people have a hard time stomaching

542
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,400
what you're gonna end up doing one
hundred and thirty eight games. He hit

543
00:37:24,519 --> 00:37:30,199
thirty homers, ninety one RBI,
seventy five runs, hitting two fifty eight,

544
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,880
which was down. Always kind of
a lower OBP guy, and just

545
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:39,079
overall production was down. Bigger worry
is the surgery. This is something we've

546
00:37:39,119 --> 00:37:43,960
kind of talked about, I think
at nauseum behind the scenes, because I

547
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,079
even had this with Joe while we
were doing The Black Book. We were

548
00:37:45,079 --> 00:37:50,400
doing Joe and I did this.
He's like this live mock draft that we

549
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,639
put into it, and we were
going pick to pick, and he kept

550
00:37:52,679 --> 00:37:53,880
looking at me and he's like,
we'll go to check Mandy Machado. What's

551
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:57,119
going on with Mandy Machado here?
And I'm like, yeah, you're not

552
00:37:57,159 --> 00:38:02,000
wrong, But he just had offseason
tennis elbow surgery. That's probably fine,

553
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:06,239
but he has a surgery that I
don't like, having an elbow surgery,

554
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,480
and that could push him into missing
up to a month, and that I

555
00:38:09,519 --> 00:38:14,559
think is where the big concern is. But he definitely underperformed two sixty eight

556
00:38:14,599 --> 00:38:19,760
Babbitt. It was the second lowest
of his career and thirty points below his

557
00:38:20,599 --> 00:38:22,800
career average numbers, so not only
like the second lowest of his career,

558
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:28,880
but over his overall numbers in there
as well. Ground ball rate went up

559
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,760
a bit, fly ball rate went
down that's not super awesome, and the

560
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:38,000
hard hit percentage dropped. All things
you could theoretically maybe say are pointing to

561
00:38:38,079 --> 00:38:44,199
that elbow, and he got that
fixed. So the discount is what intrigues

562
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,199
me here because I still do think
he's a very talented player, but there

563
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:52,400
are some underlying things that loom around
him. Plus, drafting a player that

564
00:38:52,519 --> 00:38:55,400
is injured going into the season has
been a really big faux pas. I

565
00:38:55,519 --> 00:38:59,360
just don't love to do. But
he's in the seventies right now as far

566
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,039
as ADP go. Yeah, I
just hate it, man. I hate

567
00:39:01,079 --> 00:39:06,559
taking a guy that you see nothing
of the entire offseason and all you're getting

568
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:12,760
is reports about, you know,
him recovering from his injury. And this

569
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,079
is a guy that was on the
bad side of the splits. Three zero

570
00:39:15,119 --> 00:39:20,880
eight versus lefties, two forty one
against righty's all adding up to a two

571
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,840
point fifty eight batting average. He's
not getting on base on the ways.

572
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:28,239
When he does, he doesn't steal
so the power numbers are always going to

573
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,320
be good for Machado, and he's
a good hitter and he's amazing defensively,

574
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:36,480
so we know he's going to be
out there every single game. But this

575
00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:40,000
lineup is getting worse. You know, they just traded Sodo. It seems

576
00:39:40,039 --> 00:39:45,199
like a teardown might be imminent fairly
quickly for the Padres. Maybe they give

577
00:39:45,199 --> 00:39:50,440
it a one year, one or
two more year run and then he's going

578
00:39:50,519 --> 00:39:52,800
to be off somewhere else and maybe
in the twilight of his career. So,

579
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:58,159
you know, still a very very
good player, but I don't I

580
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,960
do not want to walk into this
season with the guy that I haven't seen

581
00:40:00,039 --> 00:40:04,880
played so play or you know,
maybe missing time. So if he comes

582
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,719
back and he plays in the spring, right wheels up, love Manny Machado,

583
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:13,079
he'll probably bump into that category that's
just above him, or at least

584
00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:17,159
that section. But the closer we
get, the less likely it seems that

585
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,519
he is going to play, the
less likely I am going to be to

586
00:40:20,559 --> 00:40:25,840
take him. Yeah, and I
will say my operating procedure for this is

587
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:30,239
going to be one of two things. I'm not going to focus on a

588
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,639
lot of the underlying stuff something I
didn't mention as well. He also suffered

589
00:40:32,639 --> 00:40:37,960
a fractured bone in his hand early
in the season, and there's another reason

590
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,880
why some of this stuff can get
sapped. But the thing I can't deny

591
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:44,760
is that is two different injuries.
That is a fractured bone in your hand

592
00:40:45,079 --> 00:40:49,519
and then his off season elbow surgery. As you're getting into your thirties,

593
00:40:50,079 --> 00:40:53,800
that should be more of a concern
for setbacks and maybe needing time to get

594
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:58,960
back right. So way that however
you want, Like, I don't think

595
00:40:59,079 --> 00:41:04,360
the decline Ish player is who he's
going to be, hopefully not long term,

596
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,360
but at the same time, you
got to consider those injuries and that's

597
00:41:07,559 --> 00:41:10,360
that's what's looming, and that's why
you're gonna see lower costs and stuff on

598
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:15,800
Manny Machado number. What number are
we at, that's let's say four,

599
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:19,320
five, six, seven, This
is eight. I guess Hassan Kim,

600
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,400
we already talked about him. You
want to go listen to the second base

601
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,320
episode. You can do that did
have seventeen homers, thirty eight stolen bases.

602
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,239
There were some big splits in there. He comes in right around the

603
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,239
exact same cost as Machado most likely
being the person that would fill in for

604
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,960
him in that miss time, and
then he would You know, they can

605
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:42,199
mess around with some different roster construction, things like they could move Kim to

606
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,840
third, and they can move him
back to second. Crona Worth could play

607
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,960
some second while Kim is at third. They can know they got some FLEXI

608
00:41:47,519 --> 00:41:51,559
hell yeah, Jackson Merril. They
could bring up Jackson Merril for the first

609
00:41:51,559 --> 00:41:55,079
month and keep cronin Worth at first. Kim could play third, and then

610
00:41:55,119 --> 00:41:59,039
you could have Jackson Merril play second. Nol Riki, you can EASi even

611
00:41:59,079 --> 00:42:01,360
be fifth exactly. I knew that
was coming. I felt that coming here.

612
00:42:01,639 --> 00:42:06,840
Nolan Aernaudo, we have two guys
left in the top one hundred.

613
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:12,719
Nolan Aernado is one of those kind
of piss poor comparative year hit two,

614
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:15,760
I shouldn stay pisp port. It
really wasn't that that bad. But low

615
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:19,320
runs total scored seventy one, twenty
six homers, hit two sixty six,

616
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:24,639
ninety three RBI three point fifteen,
OBP four to fifty nine slug comparative to

617
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:30,119
the rest of the position. Pretty
low, categorically on a lot of the

618
00:42:30,199 --> 00:42:35,000
underlying stuff. He struggled with strikeouts. For him, he raised the strike

619
00:42:35,079 --> 00:42:37,239
up percentage to sixteen point five,
which was the second highest of his career,

620
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:42,079
but I'd point out that's like still
incredibly low. He pulled the ball

621
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,800
at the highest of his career,
which is nice, Yet his flyball percent

622
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:50,000
percentage fell to forty point five percent, So that tells me that's someone that

623
00:42:50,159 --> 00:42:53,000
is like he is trying. He
was trying to get the ball in the

624
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:57,480
air, and he might have pressed
a little bit too much. He also

625
00:42:57,519 --> 00:43:01,920
struggled versus left, his career worst
against left. He's hitting two twenty though

626
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:06,199
he also struggled in the second half. Or though he struggled in the second

627
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,679
half of the year, hitting two
forty three, he did finish strong overall,

628
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:13,679
hitting up two eighty three. Nineteen
of his twenty six homers came in

629
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:15,599
that second half. So it's just
a weird year. Some babbit struggles as

630
00:43:15,599 --> 00:43:20,920
well. I just think he's exactly
who we think he is. It's funny

631
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,960
I look at that box. Yeah, because his uh, his first couple

632
00:43:23,960 --> 00:43:28,199
of years away, his first year
away from CORES, everyone was like,

633
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,440
oh, the batting average is batting
average. Then last year was two ninety

634
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:35,440
three, so you're like, okay, no, he's just good. And

635
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,239
then this year was back down to
two sixty six. The power was a

636
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:44,119
little less, he walked fewer times, he struck out more, uh than

637
00:43:44,159 --> 00:43:50,480
he ever has since what was that
twenty fifteen. So it looks like,

638
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,719
you know, not being in cores
and aging a little bit is starting to

639
00:43:54,840 --> 00:44:00,760
creep up into Nolan Ernado. But
you know, him having an amazing year

640
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:05,519
again this year would be no shock
at all. The floor is very very

641
00:44:05,599 --> 00:44:09,159
high, although it is sinking that
That's what I would say for Nolan Aeronado.

642
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:14,039
You mentioned lefty righty splits. I
assume those will get a little better.

643
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,920
But I mean he's human. That's
what we're seeing from him now.

644
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:21,719
He's still a goodbye, still a
high floor, but he is human and

645
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,599
he is starting to sink a little
bit. Yeah. I was interested that,

646
00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:29,400
like Paul Goldschmid took the off season
to go work at drive Line and

647
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,199
why like a guy like Eronaudo maybe
wouldn't as well, you know where,

648
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,960
like he found he knew what he
wanted to do. He's like, oh,

649
00:44:35,159 --> 00:44:37,800
I'm gonna start pulling the ball more. And he wasn't able to do

650
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,039
that, and he did struggle,
Like I wonder if anything will rub off

651
00:44:40,119 --> 00:44:45,239
or we'll get there. It's a
great team context. The team itself just

652
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:50,639
presents really good numbers I expect.
Look at projections here, I expect,

653
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,960
you know, the twenty five ish
homers, eighty eighty to ninety on the

654
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:58,239
average of running RBI and like a
two sixty average. Projections are kind of

655
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,639
the same. Twenty eight homer,
ninety nine RBI, eighty three run with

656
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,599
a two to sixty batting average sixty
three. I think batting average the RBI

657
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:08,719
are the second most projected. I
didn't tell you many Machado's as well.

658
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:13,119
I'm a little bit surprised at this. They're projecting one hundred and fifty games,

659
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,719
thirty two homers, eighty six run, ninety nine RBI in a two

660
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:20,320
sixty nine batting average. I mean, you gave me one hundred and fifty

661
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:23,639
games on Manny Machado. I am
game with this bounce back. I'm just

662
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:27,440
not sure that that's going to be
the case. And that's Steamer projections.

663
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,239
If you guys care, Yeah,
I mean, he he barely has missed

664
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:35,519
games in his career. So you
know, it's been one hundred and sixty

665
00:45:35,519 --> 00:45:37,280
two, one hundred and fifty seven, you know, even he played every

666
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:42,360
single game in twenty twenty, like, and then last year it's one hundred

667
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:45,920
and thirty eight and he has an
injury going in. So yeah, two

668
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:51,039
remember fraction, and then you got
the hand. He's fine. You know

669
00:45:51,119 --> 00:45:52,519
by the time, I don't think
we're worried about the hand. It's the

670
00:45:52,519 --> 00:45:55,679
elbow we're worried about. Moving I
am worried about that elbow. That's right.

671
00:45:57,039 --> 00:46:00,239
Josh Young, who was vying at
some point probably wouldn't have got it,

672
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,960
but was vying for that Rookie of
the Year award. He is the

673
00:46:04,039 --> 00:46:07,440
last of the top one hundred overall
guys, and that makes it. I

674
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:08,800
don't know why math is hard for
me. Six seven, eight nine.

675
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:12,599
That's the tenth third basement on here. We got to Josh Young. That's

676
00:46:12,599 --> 00:46:15,119
actually not that bad. One hundred
and twenty two games, twenty three homers,

677
00:46:15,159 --> 00:46:20,239
seventy five runs, seventy rbi,
a four to sixty seven slug with

678
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:24,000
a seven eighty one ops. Bad
expect I mean, he's just not an

679
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,840
OBP guy. That number kind of
struggles, but a lot of the other

680
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,199
like hard hit metrics are out there, but what do you got on Josh

681
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:34,280
Young? Yeah, Josh Young,
lefty, big lefty, righty splits and

682
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,960
on the wrong side three twenty seven
vers lefties, two forty seven against righty's.

683
00:46:38,199 --> 00:46:43,199
He also faded down the stretch to
eighty in the first half two twenty

684
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,440
nine in the second half. You
know, he hit the rookie wall.

685
00:46:45,519 --> 00:46:51,599
But the lineup is good. He's
got power, I think him. I

686
00:46:51,639 --> 00:46:55,199
think he compares pretty well to the
guy right below him and Alex Bregman,

687
00:46:55,440 --> 00:47:00,679
so I think that they're somewhat similar. With the bat in the numbers at

688
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:02,760
the end of the year, I
think will be closed the same. Obviously

689
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:07,960
different types of players, but I
think that they're probably fairly similar. So

690
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:14,960
I just big splits. This which
is why he's lower than that top group,

691
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:20,679
is the big splits, because those
become inconsistent and you might have some

692
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:24,519
wild swings because of it. Fractured
thumb he suffered near the end of the

693
00:47:24,519 --> 00:47:27,840
the end of the year, I
believe it was in August. I think

694
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,280
that ended out his year. He
hit well prior to the injury to eighty,

695
00:47:30,679 --> 00:47:35,719
but once he returned. I believe
from that him only two twenty nine

696
00:47:36,119 --> 00:47:38,679
great hard hit stuff like the barrel
percentage, hard hit percentage, slugging percentage

697
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:44,239
expected slug all top ten at third
base. But the strikeouts were massive.

698
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:45,920
Struck out one hundred and fifty one
times in one hundred and twenty two games.

699
00:47:46,119 --> 00:47:51,679
No player struck out more in one
hundred and twenty games played or more

700
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,599
at that position. Twenty nine point
three percent strikeout rate was in the bottom

701
00:47:55,760 --> 00:48:01,440
fourteenth percentile of the league. And
his hitting profile is just weird, very

702
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:07,320
focused on inside pitches, destroyed pitches, hit above average on both as well

703
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:09,119
on the outside portion of the zone
and the top of the zone. So

704
00:48:09,199 --> 00:48:13,599
that's going to be something to you
know, end up watching as far as

705
00:48:13,639 --> 00:48:15,760
like what his approaches. He also
had a good postseason. I mean,

706
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:20,679
he hit threeho eight no he did
three twenty nine OBP, five thirty eight

707
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,800
slog. He had three bombs and
eight RBI in the Rangers World Series run.

708
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:30,880
So you know, he did hit
the rookie wall, but he pushed

709
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:34,559
through it in the postseason and had
a great postseason. So don't forget about

710
00:48:34,559 --> 00:48:37,800
that when we're looking at Josh Young. You mentioned Bregman, who's just like

711
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:39,599
right outside of it. One hundred
and sixty one games, twenty five homers,

712
00:48:39,639 --> 00:48:43,480
one hundred and three runs, ninety
eight RBI. Those are not bad,

713
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,079
two sixty two batting average, and
a couple notes I had on Bregman

714
00:48:46,119 --> 00:48:52,800
because one thing like really ended up
standing out obviously, like the decision making

715
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:55,760
is immense for him. The twelve
percent strikeout rate, walked twelve point seven

716
00:48:55,800 --> 00:49:00,440
percent of the time, which is
crazy. He forced his pitch by the

717
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:04,159
way, to give him fastballs because
he only hit one hundred and ninety eight

718
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:07,119
one ninety eight against sliders, So
that was something that was like he just

719
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:10,639
wants to hit the fastball, and
that can also be like a detriment to

720
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:16,039
him. He survives on pulling the
ball, as every one of his twenty

721
00:49:16,119 --> 00:49:22,480
twenty three homers came on his pulse
side. And then from twenty seventeen this

722
00:49:22,480 --> 00:49:24,239
this is now that now we're getting
into the where the struggle was. From

723
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:30,519
twenty seventeen to twenty twenty two,
Bregman had hit under had never hit under,

724
00:49:30,599 --> 00:49:36,599
sorry, never hit under three hundred
against lefties this year two fifteen.

725
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:40,000
So I'll repeat that because I kind
of bumbled it twenty seventeen to twenty twenty

726
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:44,480
one. Bregman, that is what
seventeen eighteen, nineteen twenty, that's five

727
00:49:44,559 --> 00:49:49,239
seasons he had never hit under three
hundred against lefties. Bam drops down to

728
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,000
two fifteen. What is that?
In my mind, it's an outlier.

729
00:49:52,119 --> 00:49:57,559
It's an outlier that I think kind
of speaks to something that's probably not repeatable.

730
00:49:57,679 --> 00:50:00,000
Yet he in all of those struggles, he's still like one hundred runs

731
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:04,639
and ninety three RB. Right,
that is good to see, But I

732
00:50:04,679 --> 00:50:08,440
don't think there is crazy big power
because he he gets everything out of his

733
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,320
power by pulling the ball, which
you have to do in Houston. But

734
00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:15,000
also the lefty stuff doesn't seem like
it's going to continue. So there might

735
00:50:15,039 --> 00:50:20,280
be some more upside for Bregman this
year, especially at that cost. Yeah,

736
00:50:19,119 --> 00:50:24,119
I like these byes because you're buying
Machado on a bounce back, you

737
00:50:24,159 --> 00:50:28,920
know, like I said, let's
see what happens with this injury, and

738
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,119
if he can get back before the
season starts, that's it. That'll be

739
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:35,800
huge for him. But you're buying
a bounce back on him. Great consistent

740
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,840
players. Same thing with Aeronato.
Same thing with Bregmant, So I think,

741
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,840
you know, with Young you're buying
potential, but the floor is already

742
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,880
pretty decent with him, and the
lineup is great around him. So yes,

743
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:52,440
these are all good byes, you
know, and there are some guys

744
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:57,440
beyond this that are good. But
I just there is a cliff. I

745
00:50:57,480 --> 00:51:00,920
feel like, specifically with the bat
on, a lot of these third basemen

746
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:05,000
and a lot of these guys that
are good with the glove are getting the

747
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,239
playing time below this group as well. So well, we're about to hit

748
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:12,840
the clip, and this is where
this proverbial cliff hits. Even though this

749
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,360
is in like, I'm just gonna
moove this because I just don't think this

750
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:19,159
guy belongs in that tier of player, but he does from an ADP standpoint,

751
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,079
Spencer Steer, So now we're going
to kind of do some groups here.

752
00:51:22,599 --> 00:51:25,400
This group is technically one oh six
to one seventy eight. You had

753
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:30,000
properly designed it one fifty to one
seventy. Steer's gonna fall a little bit

754
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,159
with the Candelario stuff. I don't
know if that has changed like as of

755
00:51:32,199 --> 00:51:37,000
recent drafts, But here is this
group we're going to talk about Spencer Steer

756
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:40,440
twenty three homers, fifteen stolen bases, seventy four runs, eighty six rbi,

757
00:51:40,559 --> 00:51:45,119
a three fifty six OBP. That
two seventy one batting average great,

758
00:51:45,119 --> 00:51:49,039
but now there are some questions about
his playing time. Also, the next

759
00:51:49,119 --> 00:51:52,639
guy is another Red welv Marte.
Three Reds players qualifying at third base.

760
00:51:52,639 --> 00:51:59,119
There's actually four when you add Candelario
uelvi Marte didn't play a ton, six

761
00:51:59,159 --> 00:52:02,400
stolen bases, three homers, three
sixty six OBP and a three to sixteen

762
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:07,159
average. People betting on the playing
time being there, even though I think

763
00:52:07,159 --> 00:52:09,840
that's in question. Alec Boehm is
on this list one hundred and forty five

764
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:15,000
games, twenty homers on a two
seventy four batting average, seventy four run

765
00:52:15,079 --> 00:52:19,719
stinks, ninety seven rbi, the
second most or third most rbi of anybody

766
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,760
on this list. But that is
an elite ish number. But he's a

767
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:28,079
low OBP guy and really no good
barreler hard hit numbers like there is with

768
00:52:28,199 --> 00:52:31,760
Jake Berger, who comes in at
one sixty five. I know, thirty

769
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:37,039
four homers, two fifty average,
three on nine OBP, eighty rbi,

770
00:52:37,239 --> 00:52:40,760
seventy one runs in one hundred and
forty one games. The last three key

771
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:45,960
Brian Hayes, who hit two seventy
one with fifteen homers, ten stolen bases.

772
00:52:45,039 --> 00:52:51,480
Again, another low OBP guy.
You've got Max Munci thirty six homers,

773
00:52:51,559 --> 00:52:54,840
one hundred and five rbi, which
I believe were tops at the position,

774
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:59,880
ninety five runs, but he only
hit two twelve which stunk. He

775
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,599
he did have a three thirteen OBP
over one hundred point difference. And then

776
00:53:02,599 --> 00:53:07,679
finally Esoch Paratees, who played one
hundred and forty three games, hit thirty

777
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:12,320
one homers with a two to fifty
batting average, ninety eight rbi. Very

778
00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:15,920
good OBP, very bad expected numbers
that tell. So that's a lot of

779
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:20,159
guys. I just threw it you. There's are seven players that encompass one

780
00:53:20,199 --> 00:53:23,360
hundred to two hundred here. There's
a couple obviously that are likable, and

781
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,480
I think there's a couple that are
avoids for me. But why don't you

782
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:29,800
give us some stats on some of
these players? Yeah, I mean to

783
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:35,639
start with Spencer steerre as you mentioned, twenty fifth biggest negative difference between what

784
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:39,440
he actually slugged at four sixty four
and has expected slug at four seventeen,

785
00:53:39,599 --> 00:53:45,960
so he was expected to slug way
less forty seven points less last year.

786
00:53:45,039 --> 00:53:51,360
Also, big lefty righting splits three
thirteen versus lefties two fifty six verst righties,

787
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:55,639
but he still had twenty three bombs
and fifteen swipes right three fifty six

788
00:53:55,800 --> 00:54:00,639
obp. The numbers are middling,
not a lot of hard hit in barrel

789
00:54:00,679 --> 00:54:06,199
percentage stuff. His average is fine, is slugging is fine, even though

790
00:54:06,199 --> 00:54:10,599
there was a big negative difference.
It's just a little below average. But

791
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,480
roster resource has him hitting third,
right in the mid smack dab in the

792
00:54:15,519 --> 00:54:20,199
middle of that Red's lineup, and
playing left field every day. So if

793
00:54:20,199 --> 00:54:22,760
that's gonna be the case, a
guy that can run and steal in a

794
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:29,159
good ballpark in this lineup is getting
better. This is why he's going near

795
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:32,440
Alex Bregman and all of those guys, is for that opportunity to be a

796
00:54:32,519 --> 00:54:37,320
guy that can have power and steal
and hit in the middle of that lineup

797
00:54:37,519 --> 00:54:40,239
in that good ballpark position. Flexible. He was flexible very much multiple spots,

798
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:44,000
which is really nice. And having
a guy that you can move around

799
00:54:44,039 --> 00:54:46,199
is in there. Let's just jump
over to Burger for a second, because

800
00:54:46,599 --> 00:54:52,519
Burger's fascinating on this list. Sixth
hardest hit ball of the year one eighteen

801
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:54,119
point two. Let me give you
a couple more crazy, I got a

802
00:54:54,119 --> 00:54:59,199
couple more. Six in max exit
Velo like you said. Seventh in Barrel's

803
00:54:59,199 --> 00:55:02,679
per plate appearance percentage ten point seven
percent, twenty third and hard hit percentage

804
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:07,679
in the league forty nine point six
percent, almost fifty percent of his hits

805
00:55:07,679 --> 00:55:13,760
are hit hard. Nineteenth in slugging, twenty fourth in expected slugging. This

806
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:17,360
guy was outstanding. He had big
splits. Home and away was three zero

807
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:22,119
five to one ninety eight two twenty
verse two seventy nine in the first and

808
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:27,639
second half. But thirty four bombs. You're getting nothing. I mean,

809
00:55:27,679 --> 00:55:31,440
we watched him Terry's achilles, uh, you know, playing for the White

810
00:55:31,519 --> 00:55:36,760
Sox in spring training one year.
So you're getting nothing from him stealing.

811
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:38,840
He's a big boy. He ain't
gonna steal. He had one. Uh,

812
00:55:38,840 --> 00:55:44,360
but the power is there. Uh. The underlying numbers are very good

813
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:47,159
for him, and he's an everyday
player. So there's a lot to like

814
00:55:47,159 --> 00:55:51,559
about shake Berger. Yeah, he
got a lot better to he hit just

815
00:55:51,599 --> 00:55:54,000
two fourteen when he was with the
White Sox. He then hit three oh

816
00:55:54,199 --> 00:55:59,679
three and fifty three games with Miami
un lockedown. I'll also say this,

817
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:04,559
he was one of only sixteen players
in all of MLB to have a five

818
00:56:04,639 --> 00:56:09,519
hundred plus slugging percentage and a five
hundred plus expected slugging percentage. Oh,

819
00:56:09,559 --> 00:56:15,320
by the way, underperformed his batting
average an XBA of two seventy, so

820
00:56:15,400 --> 00:56:17,880
he hit two fifty expected to seventy. We'll have to see, like,

821
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:22,320
you know, where it goes full
time when he's you know, solely in

822
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,039
Miami. But you know, if
you're talking from a late power thing,

823
00:56:27,119 --> 00:56:30,519
I'm very I think like projections don't
like him this year as much. It's

824
00:56:30,559 --> 00:56:34,639
actually the power is way down twenty
seven, but they have him still hitting

825
00:56:34,639 --> 00:56:37,000
two fifty to forty nine. To
be exact, if I'm looking for that

826
00:56:37,079 --> 00:56:42,599
late power, this is a guy
that I'm targeting because he also underperformed some

827
00:56:42,639 --> 00:56:45,559
of his stats and has insane outliers
for the hard hit and he's going to

828
00:56:45,639 --> 00:56:49,199
hit in a prime spot. Yeah, that's why you look at him at

829
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,880
one sixty and I go all right, well, you know, if I

830
00:56:51,960 --> 00:56:54,840
went high speed, I go to
him, or if I went the high

831
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:58,800
power guys like we talked about,
and then I went really hyper focused on

832
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,199
speed, I needed to come back
onto the power. Jake Berger's a guy

833
00:57:01,199 --> 00:57:05,559
I'm gonna look at it absolutely and
you look at the lineup ahead of him,

834
00:57:05,599 --> 00:57:08,719
it's good. Behind him, we'll
make you queasy. But if he's

835
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:14,639
cleaning up in front of a rise
Bell and Jazz Chisholm, that's a good

836
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,039
three to be driving in. And
you know rises on baits almost every time.

837
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:21,960
So uh so it looks like Burger
is gonna get it in at batana

838
00:57:22,119 --> 00:57:24,880
first inning almost every single game.
So yeah, I mean, Burger is

839
00:57:25,599 --> 00:57:30,000
a very very good option if you
have weighted and you need power. For

840
00:57:30,039 --> 00:57:32,199
sure, Pariates is gonna be a
really interesting one. He's in a lot

841
00:57:32,199 --> 00:57:37,400
of trade rumors. He's one of
the weirdest he had so check this out.

842
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:42,480
His home runs and RBI ranked inside
the top five at third base.

843
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:47,360
He did this while putting up the
lowest qualified hard hit percentage of any of

844
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:51,840
these guys at twenty eight point three
percent. But what did he do?

845
00:57:52,519 --> 00:57:58,199
He had the highest launch angle of
any third basement twenty two point two degrees

846
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:00,159
and what do you do with a
high launch angle? You pull the ball

847
00:58:00,239 --> 00:58:05,320
and guess what. He had the
biggest pull rate of anyone at the position

848
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:10,280
at fifty four point five percent of
the time. He overperformed almost like across

849
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,599
the board, like his expected stats. But this is a guy who a

850
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:16,400
doesn't hit the ball hard, but
knows exactly how to do it. So

851
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:20,239
I pay attention to where he goes, Like those rumors of him going to

852
00:58:20,239 --> 00:58:24,239
Seattle. There's not great ballpark factors
necessarily in Seattle, so we probably want

853
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:28,360
to dig in a little bit more
to like how is he going to do

854
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:30,119
pulling the ball there? But what
we know is he gets the ball in

855
00:58:30,159 --> 00:58:32,559
the freaking air and he pulls the
crap out of it. So like if

856
00:58:32,559 --> 00:58:35,960
you were go to Houston, I'd
be like, that's pretty sweet actually,

857
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:38,199
because we know Bregman can do that. So just pay attention to the ballpark

858
00:58:38,239 --> 00:58:44,360
factors. But he's weird because it
is bad quality of contact kind of if

859
00:58:44,360 --> 00:58:47,599
you look at it. Yet he
knows how to just absolutely maximize every little

860
00:58:47,639 --> 00:58:51,440
bit of his game. So I
thought he was Yeah, when he hits

861
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:53,119
it, he hits the s out
of it. But when he doesn't hit

862
00:58:53,159 --> 00:58:55,639
the s out of it. He
ain't hitting it at all. That's really

863
00:58:55,719 --> 00:59:01,239
the thing. To seventeenth worst max
exit velocity among qualified players in the league,

864
00:59:01,239 --> 00:59:07,760
and that's out of two hundred fifty
eighties to forty one, sixteenth worst,

865
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:09,239
and a hard hit percentage as you
mentioned, twenty eight and a half

866
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:14,400
percent. He had the second biggest
negative difference between his x slug and slug

867
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:17,880
it was one hundred and forty six
points, and the third biggest negative difference

868
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:23,840
in his wOBA to ex wOBA by
forty seven points. So the underlying numbers

869
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:29,960
are just strange. They're very,
very weird for him, as you mentioned.

870
00:59:30,559 --> 00:59:34,239
And Tampa Bay not the best spot
to be in for a guy like

871
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,760
him, especially when you know they
have the guys that they can play at

872
00:59:37,760 --> 00:59:45,760
third now and I could see him
being very very platooned. So why don't

873
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:47,320
think he'll be on the team.
So hopefully he's gone, yeah, and

874
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:51,840
hopefully it's a spot that you mentioned, But if he goes somewhere that isn't

875
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,480
pole friendly, he's probably not gonna
be a very good player. So a

876
00:59:54,559 --> 00:59:58,639
player, so I'm not like super
into him. I like that he maximizes

877
00:59:58,679 --> 01:00:00,400
it, but I think they're as
every system is going to think there's major

878
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:04,960
aggression the other one, the last
one in this tier at least I'll talk

879
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:09,639
about just like Alec Bohm. Alec
Bohm to me is all the stuff that

880
01:00:09,679 --> 01:00:14,599
Bregman does, but like worse.
And what I'm saying about that is like

881
01:00:15,199 --> 01:00:17,280
he gets on base. He's a
good contact hitter, which is great.

882
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:21,639
You got to like that he doesn't
strike out as well. That's a huge

883
01:00:21,679 --> 01:00:24,960
positive for him that he is.
He's improved that he had a higher expected

884
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,519
batting average. In his actual batting
average, he had a two to eighty

885
01:00:28,639 --> 01:00:34,039
seven XBA, which ranked second among
all qualified third basemen. He lowered a

886
01:00:34,039 --> 01:00:37,559
strikeout rate to fifteen point four percent, which was the third lowest, only

887
01:00:37,599 --> 01:00:42,639
behind Hoser Ramirez and Bregman. But
five point seven percent barrel rate, forty

888
01:00:42,679 --> 01:00:45,800
one percent hard hit rate. That's
not great. He doesn't want to be

889
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:51,800
beat by offspeed breaking pitches, which
hurts his ability to hit fastballs. And

890
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:55,800
then here's this on the home run
standpoint, seven of his twenty homers were

891
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:01,840
stat cast labeled doubters, which indicated
it would have only been a home run

892
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:07,440
in one to seven ballparks. So
if you take twenty homers and you make

893
01:01:08,039 --> 01:01:14,400
was that thirty five forty percent of
them potential doubters. I just don't like

894
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:20,639
the possibility with also low hard hit
rates and stuff like that in barrel rates

895
01:01:20,679 --> 01:01:23,199
for you to really increase that number. So I tend to start to think

896
01:01:23,239 --> 01:01:27,920
maybe he's capped around that twenty marker, great points leagues, doesn't strike out,

897
01:01:28,000 --> 01:01:30,639
gets good batting average and stuff.
I'm not super interested yet he had

898
01:01:30,679 --> 01:01:35,159
like almost one hundred rbi because this
is that, like you put a guy

899
01:01:35,199 --> 01:01:37,599
in a really great offense so he
can get RBI totals. But I'm not

900
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:42,400
enamored with Bohm. And those were
some of the reasons why I think that

901
01:01:42,639 --> 01:01:46,760
the comparison to Bregman is perfect,
honestly, because these guys aren't They're not

902
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:50,920
gonna hit the crap out of the
ball, but they are going to hit

903
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:54,880
the ball. I mean, Alec
Bohm was eighteenth in the league and expected

904
01:01:54,920 --> 01:02:00,800
batting average and that was to ninety. That was sixteen points better four.

905
01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:06,480
So he hits the ball. It's
not always hard, but he's always always

906
01:02:06,519 --> 01:02:09,519
making good contact. And because he's
always making good contact, sometimes the ball

907
01:02:09,599 --> 01:02:15,039
is gonna fly out, specifically when
you play in a lineup or not in

908
01:02:15,079 --> 01:02:17,800
the lineup, but in a ballpark
like Citizens Bank, and in a lineup

909
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:22,480
that is going to turn over a
decent amount. So I think the floor

910
01:02:22,559 --> 01:02:27,639
is very high with Boem. But
I think if you look these numbers and

911
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:30,519
want a little bit extra, like
you said, you're probably not getting more.

912
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:34,960
This is probably what it is.
Maybe there's a little bit more power

913
01:02:34,960 --> 01:02:37,159
in there, just because power is
one of the final tools to develop fully

914
01:02:37,559 --> 01:02:43,679
for most of these guys, but
you can't go in expecting it. The

915
01:02:43,719 --> 01:02:45,159
only other guy I want to talk
about in this range is Key Brian Hayes,

916
01:02:45,199 --> 01:02:47,920
and I just want to ask you
one question about him. Is it

917
01:02:47,960 --> 01:02:54,440
worth it to draft him? The
ADP is what one sixty eight one sixty

918
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:57,920
eight, But I mean he was
in and out of that lineup, and

919
01:02:57,960 --> 01:03:00,280
it seemed like that. I mean
there was at least one time or he

920
01:03:00,639 --> 01:03:05,039
came off the il, played half
a game and then immediately went back to

921
01:03:05,079 --> 01:03:07,159
the al. The guy cannot stay
on the field, and when he is

922
01:03:07,199 --> 01:03:13,079
on the field, he's not one
hundred percent. It's just he's incredibly frustrating.

923
01:03:13,119 --> 01:03:17,480
And everything you say about the good
ballpark factors with you know, Boem

924
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:22,079
and Bregman, it's the opposite for
him. The lineup's bad. The ballpark

925
01:03:22,199 --> 01:03:25,679
is okay, it's probably middling,
but the lineup is so bad, I

926
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:30,239
just I don't know if it's even
worth rostering Key Brian Hayes. Most of

927
01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:34,280
the time, I probably fall in
again. It posts like pretty good hard

928
01:03:34,360 --> 01:03:37,440
hit numbers, a good batting average, stolen bases, of their low strikeouts.

929
01:03:37,480 --> 01:03:39,480
One of the reasons I'm a little
bit enamored me and you know,

930
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:43,880
I've talked about him, because it's
like the underlying stuff gets you excited.

931
01:03:44,039 --> 01:03:46,920
He finally started pulling the ball,
raised his pole percentage by four percent.

932
01:03:47,159 --> 01:03:51,519
It's still too low, way too
low, thirty one percent, but like,

933
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:55,119
if you start to do that with
those hard hit numbers, it's gonna

934
01:03:55,159 --> 01:04:00,000
have good results. That lowered his
ground ball rate dramatically, which you really

935
01:04:00,079 --> 01:04:03,000
you really need to start seeing,
and I wonder if those changes are going

936
01:04:03,079 --> 01:04:05,719
to kind of move over. He
finished the year strong also. He hit

937
01:04:05,719 --> 01:04:11,880
two ninety nine. Ten of his
homers came in just forty nine games,

938
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:16,079
versus the two fifty average, with
five homers in the first seventy two games.

939
01:04:16,079 --> 01:04:19,360
So my point is is, like
the poll rate started to happen,

940
01:04:19,679 --> 01:04:24,679
results started to get there, he
also steals bases. I just don't think

941
01:04:24,719 --> 01:04:27,840
it's and then he's the realm of
yeah no, But I just don't think

942
01:04:27,840 --> 01:04:30,719
it's a out of realm of possibility
that we finally get that like twenty five

943
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:34,920
fifteen to twenty five twenty type of
season from him. I'm not saying it's

944
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:39,480
going to happen, but I'll probably
fall in, you know, if I'm

945
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:42,960
looking for the cheaper stolen bases and
if he if he gives me a little

946
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:45,199
bit of like value, yeah,
let's see him do it. Let's see

947
01:04:45,239 --> 01:04:47,400
him get traded to the Mets and
do it there. That's what I want.

948
01:04:47,840 --> 01:04:51,079
The last group that will focus on
gets us into the three hundred Ryan

949
01:04:51,159 --> 01:04:55,880
McMahon twenty three homers to forty batting
average in Colorado this past year. We're

950
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:59,840
starting in the two twenties. This
guy, if I bet if we were

951
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:01,559
if we looked right now, actually, while I'm going through these, we

952
01:05:01,719 --> 01:05:10,239
look at this, yeh NFBC do
like January fifteenth on because Junior Camonaro has

953
01:05:10,239 --> 01:05:15,440
a two twenty eight obi uh obb
to twenty eight NFBC Draft. I bet

954
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:16,639
you that's closer to one to eighty
to one. Well, I mean you

955
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:20,360
November fifteenth, on right, he
said, Yeah, what did I say?

956
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:23,920
I'm sorry, I meant November.
Yeah, that's exactly you know,

957
01:05:24,039 --> 01:05:26,199
you know how to decipher my brain. Okay, okay. I was just

958
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:29,880
like, oh, we're looking November
November fifteenth like the last month, so

959
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:32,159
let me get through these and then
tell us what it is. But he's

960
01:05:32,239 --> 01:05:34,880
hit the numbers through the roof.
As far as what he did in the

961
01:05:34,880 --> 01:05:38,760
miners, he was one of the
He was the only teenager to hit thirty

962
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,840
plus homers. He hit like five
more in the Dominican Winner League. He

963
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:45,920
didn't have this insane great debut,
but he is an elite hitter. Mikel

964
01:05:45,960 --> 01:05:49,119
Garcia very interesting one, actually hits
the ball really hard. Only four homers

965
01:05:49,159 --> 01:05:53,960
though twenty three stolen bases in one
hundred and twenty three games. We got

966
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,960
Matt Chapman, who doesn't have a
home yet, seventeen homers, one of

967
01:05:57,000 --> 01:06:00,320
the worst years he's had statistically,
but through the roof hard hit numbers.

968
01:06:00,639 --> 01:06:04,239
Jamer Candelario is going to move up
because he's now with Cincinnati He ended up

969
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:08,440
having twenty two homers, seventy seven
runs, seventy RBIs with a two to

970
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:13,320
fifty one batting average. Johannio Suarez
comes to Arizona after hitting twenty two homers

971
01:06:13,320 --> 01:06:16,360
with ninety six rbi B batting average. Though, then you got Willie Castro

972
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:20,559
and Luis Ringuifo Rnguifo coming back from
injury. So you can see how far

973
01:06:20,679 --> 01:06:25,400
back that really pulls. What is
that ADP on kemen arow two thirty three?

974
01:06:25,840 --> 01:06:28,079
So it actually lowered? Oh so
I was completely wrong, all right?

975
01:06:28,119 --> 01:06:30,159
Now do it real quick? Now
do it December first? On December

976
01:06:30,199 --> 01:06:33,039
first, on okay, I mean
give me one draft where he was drafted

977
01:06:33,079 --> 01:06:35,400
really hot, all right? Oh? I yeah, And then I'll also

978
01:06:35,480 --> 01:06:39,639
look at his max and all that. I'm surprised he hasn't topped the top

979
01:06:39,719 --> 01:06:45,000
two hundred then an average. Yeah, I mean, I think people are

980
01:06:45,039 --> 01:06:49,079
just questioning to eighteen his highest draft
spot is. That's only fifteen drafts.

981
01:06:49,119 --> 01:06:55,119
By the way, since December first, he did go one to fifty nine

982
01:06:55,960 --> 01:07:01,719
as his high so and it looks
like the only other guy up to two

983
01:07:01,719 --> 01:07:11,320
oh eight drafted in the top one
sixty was who is that Canoah, I'll

984
01:07:11,320 --> 01:07:15,239
give you perspective. Quite a few
people are gonna have Camonaro. As there

985
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:17,199
is a top twelve third basement this
year. It's not showing up here.

986
01:07:17,599 --> 01:07:23,400
The twelfth third basement on NFBC is
technically nouelvie Marte. At one fifty three,

987
01:07:23,679 --> 01:07:26,360
you want to take off a couple
of guys because of positional stuff.

988
01:07:26,639 --> 01:07:30,599
You're still looking at the one sixties. That's where camon Aro's gonna go as

989
01:07:30,639 --> 01:07:32,679
it moves on. If he is
guaranteed the job, I think he'll crack

990
01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:39,119
the top one fifty just because the
power is elite. The bat is in

991
01:07:39,159 --> 01:07:43,199
the top end. He's not a
big strikeout guy who's made improvements like that's

992
01:07:43,199 --> 01:07:46,960
where he's gonna go. Camon Aro
is named the everyday third baseman him herick

993
01:07:47,000 --> 01:07:51,719
to Alec Bohm, who do you
want Camonaro? Okay, Cameron Aro versus

994
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:58,400
nouelvie Marte. That one's tough because
of stolen bases. I don't believe a

995
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:03,320
lot of that, So I actually
will go Cameron Aro and Spencer Steer Michael

996
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:08,079
Cameronaro too, Okay, So I
mean you wouldn't take him over Bregman,

997
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:12,480
would you know, Okay, well
that's the line then, because Bregman is

998
01:08:12,880 --> 01:08:16,479
a one O two spears six,
you know that's the line. I am

999
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:19,600
my initial ranks I haven't posed yet. I actually do have them above Bregman

1000
01:08:19,720 --> 01:08:21,800
right now, you really, I
just noticed that I do. I have

1001
01:08:21,840 --> 01:08:26,279
them above. I have them let's
say three, four or five. Let's

1002
01:08:26,319 --> 01:08:29,119
see six seventy. Do you have
him ahead of Young? I have him

1003
01:08:29,159 --> 01:08:30,600
at twelve, I have him at
twelve. Do you have him ahead of

1004
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:33,479
Josh Young? I don't. Okay, yeah, well then that would be

1005
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:38,439
the line. But that would also
so that is a possibility, like you

1006
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:43,399
know, I outside of that,
outside of Cam and Arrow in this group,

1007
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:48,800
though, I mean, who else
excites you? I think Matt Chapman's

1008
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:53,960
destination could be interesting, you know
again, like really good hard hit numbers,

1009
01:08:54,399 --> 01:08:57,560
maybe in a good ballpark like its
like I had thought he would go

1010
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:01,560
to Arizona before Johnnyo got drafted,
So I thought, that's one mikel Garcia.

1011
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:05,640
If I'm chasing stolen bases, there
are some like pretty solid underlying stats

1012
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:09,880
that support him. The lineup kind
of stinks, but if he's hitting at

1013
01:09:09,880 --> 01:09:14,000
the top, I could get down
with him, and then you know,

1014
01:09:14,359 --> 01:09:17,079
Candelario's in an awesome ballpark. Like
I said, the only ballpark that he

1015
01:09:17,159 --> 01:09:20,800
had expected thirty plus homers in last
year would have been Cincinnati if he played

1016
01:09:20,800 --> 01:09:25,000
all his games. That's friendly,
and he should have every day playing time.

1017
01:09:26,000 --> 01:09:29,840
And there's always the chance you Haineo
Suarez can pick up the batting average

1018
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:32,039
a bit in Arizona. It's kind
of a hitter friendly environment. So I

1019
01:09:32,039 --> 01:09:36,720
mean, I gave you there's technically
five players I could get down with outside

1020
01:09:36,720 --> 01:09:40,960
of Camanaro. None is a starting
third basement right this Again, that's a

1021
01:09:41,039 --> 01:09:43,439
rank thing we'll get into. But
these are like corner infielders, and I

1022
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:48,720
think they belong mostly as corner infielders, but there are category chases. Jamer

1023
01:09:48,800 --> 01:09:53,479
might be one of the more complete
players. You know, Hanio's power,

1024
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:58,560
Chapman his power, mikel. Garcia
is stolen bases, and Kemnaro lives in

1025
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:01,119
the world of the upside, not
mentioning Ryan McMahon, who has the best

1026
01:10:01,159 --> 01:10:04,880
ballpark factor in here, and he's
actually kind of fine. Twenty three homers,

1027
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:09,800
eighty runs, seventy RBI two forty
you can manage that in kind of

1028
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:15,760
deeper league corner infield for him.
But only Kevin Arrow is a starter out

1029
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:17,600
of this group in my eyes.
Yeah, and you know, just looking

1030
01:10:17,720 --> 01:10:23,880
more and more, there are there
are fifteen to me, even in a

1031
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:29,239
fifteen man league, there are fifteen
acceptable starting third basement and the rest,

1032
01:10:29,439 --> 01:10:32,800
you know, the rest of these
guys you need to put in the you

1033
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:39,640
know, CI conversation and so.
But if you skip that spot because some

1034
01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:43,720
of these guys aren't good enough for
there's better players around, it just looks

1035
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:49,520
ugly. I don't want to be
starting Estoc Paratus or Max Munci or even

1036
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:54,720
Matt Chapman, who could improve.
I don't want those guys. And honestly,

1037
01:10:55,199 --> 01:10:58,960
if I don't want them at third, there's enough good first baseman at

1038
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:01,479
CI to where I I don't want
them at CI either. Maybe I want

1039
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:05,880
them if I've waited on third and
I've drafted a third basement later, so

1040
01:11:05,960 --> 01:11:10,760
I have someone like just in case
that person falls off the cliff, I

1041
01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,520
have someone waiting in the wings.
I have a backup, I have a

1042
01:11:13,560 --> 01:11:16,960
plan, you know what I mean. But for the most part, I

1043
01:11:17,000 --> 01:11:19,760
don't want, you know, one
of these guys on my bench. Maybe

1044
01:11:20,199 --> 01:11:26,560
but don't I just don't want these
guys Ryan McMahon, mikel Garcia, Chapman,

1045
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:30,199
Candy, even Suarez who could improve
show me the improvements. Great,

1046
01:11:30,279 --> 01:11:33,279
then I want you, but I
don't want to go into the I don't

1047
01:11:33,279 --> 01:11:36,359
want these guys on my roster for
the most part. Well, we'll explore

1048
01:11:36,399 --> 01:11:41,239
that when we get into the ranks
into February or so. Where we are

1049
01:11:41,279 --> 01:11:44,319
going to do you guys, you
kind of have to make those decisions.

1050
01:11:44,359 --> 01:11:46,640
Now. Luckily there are if you're
doing like NFBC based drafts, but you'll

1051
01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:49,479
have some time to ruminate on that. But luckily, there are quite a

1052
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:54,720
few players in the top end that
qualify at other positions that you probably would

1053
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:58,960
prioritize them as a third baseman because
the position is kind of it's kind of

1054
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:03,640
wonky a little bit, and you
probably want to invest early win possible.

1055
01:12:03,680 --> 01:12:08,399
Doesn't mean you have to have Riley
or Devers, but you know you're gonna

1056
01:12:08,399 --> 01:12:12,640
start getting down to having to take
Aeronaudo's maybe a decent floor Machado if healthy.

1057
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:14,640
But you know, we laid it
out for you. You guys make

1058
01:12:14,680 --> 01:12:17,319
those decisions, and you can also
be on the lookout here shortly for the

1059
01:12:17,359 --> 01:12:20,039
Fantasy Black Book, which is going
to be coming out, which you'll get

1060
01:12:20,039 --> 01:12:24,600
to read all of my profiles.
One more thing on third basement before we

1061
01:12:24,640 --> 01:12:30,159
go, Welsh, Are there any
prospects that you see could sneakily make an

1062
01:12:30,199 --> 01:12:32,720
opening day roster. We do have
this new rule that teams are trying to

1063
01:12:32,720 --> 01:12:39,720
take advantage of, and you know, maybe someone starting on the opening day

1064
01:12:39,840 --> 01:12:44,239
roster would be big towards them getting
into the AL and L Rookie of the

1065
01:12:44,319 --> 01:12:49,039
Year race. Yeah, so Kevin
Arrow's the number one prospects. Noelvie's right

1066
01:12:49,039 --> 01:12:51,600
there. I'd also say, like, you never know, Lawler could get

1067
01:12:51,600 --> 01:12:58,239
there, but he doesn't qualify a
third. There are two that I think

1068
01:12:58,279 --> 01:13:03,600
are worth paying attention to. Number
one, Colt Keith. Colt Keith played

1069
01:13:03,600 --> 01:13:09,399
more third base, but he might
come up as a second baseman. They've

1070
01:13:09,399 --> 01:13:13,760
got multiple spots. He would be
somebody in deeper leagues I pay attention to

1071
01:13:13,880 --> 01:13:16,359
if given a roster spot, you
want him. He hit three h six

1072
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:21,680
with twenty seven homers last season across
two levels. He hit three twenty five

1073
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:27,560
at Double A and two eighty seven
at Triple A. Strikeout numbers aren't overly

1074
01:13:27,640 --> 01:13:30,920
worrisome. He doesn't run a bunch. He's not a great defender at third

1075
01:13:30,039 --> 01:13:33,079
watching him in the AFL, so
I think he could go to second,

1076
01:13:33,119 --> 01:13:38,359
but that might be thirty homers at
second base, Colt Keith pay attention to,

1077
01:13:38,520 --> 01:13:43,159
especially as you've got Riley Green and
Spencer Torkelsen trending in the right direction.

1078
01:13:43,439 --> 01:13:47,359
The other one this could even potentially
be on another team is Kobe Mayo,

1079
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:51,840
who has I've really turned a corner
on as far as like my love

1080
01:13:53,159 --> 01:13:56,720
of wanting to invest in Kobe Mayo. The hard hit numbers are crazy.

1081
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:59,079
I mean, I'll just give you
a couple of things I had written down.

1082
01:13:59,319 --> 01:14:03,399
He had his forty five doubles led
all of minor league baseball in Triple

1083
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:08,880
A. This according to Prospects Lives
Triple A batabal data, he had a

1084
01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:13,560
one to twelve max EV, a
ninety one point six average exit velocity,

1085
01:14:13,840 --> 01:14:17,319
a fifty one point five percent hard
hit rate, and a nine point five

1086
01:14:17,439 --> 01:14:24,000
barrel percent right and he finished the
year hitting two ninety with twenty nine homers.

1087
01:14:24,359 --> 01:14:28,640
I think Kobe Mayo could push that
elite level stuff. The problem is

1088
01:14:28,760 --> 01:14:33,960
he is blocked at in Baltimore.
So if Baltimore decided to like move a

1089
01:14:34,039 --> 01:14:39,520
Kurstad and Westburg and stuff like that, that might open up. Mayo can

1090
01:14:39,560 --> 01:14:42,359
be a third or a first baseman, or he could be the cog of

1091
01:14:42,399 --> 01:14:47,039
another trade. Those jump out to
me as the top guys the others to

1092
01:14:47,039 --> 01:14:51,560
pay attention to. Justin Henry Malloy
maybe a kind of a utility player would

1093
01:14:51,560 --> 01:14:55,479
probably come up as an outfielder.
Graham Pall with the Padres, who we

1094
01:14:55,560 --> 01:15:00,199
just saw in the Arizona Fall League, has huge power. Brian Ramos is

1095
01:15:00,199 --> 01:15:02,920
getting closer and this could be the
year with the White Sox and they they're

1096
01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:08,399
dismantling of the rosters, and then
the well, there's a couple of deeper

1097
01:15:08,399 --> 01:15:12,840
ones. Austin Shenton with Tampa Bay. They he might be the reason why

1098
01:15:12,880 --> 01:15:16,960
they can also get rid of a
guy like Esak Paratees. But I have

1099
01:15:17,039 --> 01:15:20,560
one other I have to throw it
too, sorry now that I'm looking at

1100
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:25,560
it. Davisondalla Santo's he got claimed
to the Rule five draft by the Guardians

1101
01:15:26,119 --> 01:15:29,199
by virtue of them claiming him.
He's got to be on that roster,

1102
01:15:29,439 --> 01:15:32,960
right, they would theoretically put him
up. He is someone that could get

1103
01:15:32,960 --> 01:15:36,439
there. One of my favorites,
though I don't know how he would get

1104
01:15:36,439 --> 01:15:41,720
playing time, but you know,
from like an age level perspective, we

1105
01:15:41,800 --> 01:15:44,159
might be getting there. But he
just played in the Arizona Follage. He

1106
01:15:44,199 --> 01:15:47,680
finished second in the home run derby. He had twenty games on Triple A.

1107
01:15:47,760 --> 01:15:55,880
I'm talking about Damiano Palmagiani, who
is affectionately nicknamed Cheese. Huge,

1108
01:15:56,319 --> 01:16:00,439
huge hard hit numbers for him,
very impressive. I'm talking like, let

1109
01:16:00,479 --> 01:16:01,119
me see if I can pull up
my neck now. He was in the

1110
01:16:01,119 --> 01:16:04,520
home runner. Didn't he win the
AFL. No, he was in the

1111
01:16:04,520 --> 01:16:08,800
final second. Yeah, he finished
second. But check this out. Those

1112
01:16:08,800 --> 01:16:13,000
were his Triple A numbers one O
nine max ev. He had a ninety

1113
01:16:13,199 --> 01:16:17,399
four average exit velocity, his triple
A fifty six percent hard hit rate,

1114
01:16:17,439 --> 01:16:21,920
and a ten point four percent barrel
rate. It was over a shorter sample

1115
01:16:21,920 --> 01:16:26,039
size those over twenty games while he
was at triple A, but he hit

1116
01:16:26,079 --> 01:16:28,399
better at Triple A than double A. So I throw that out to you

1117
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:32,439
to say that Palmagiani might be a
real dude and he already hit a triple

1118
01:16:32,479 --> 01:16:35,680
A. Those are guys at some
point in the season we would probably pay

1119
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:40,680
attention to. Maybe we'll have some
more insight when spring training comes and I'll

1120
01:16:40,680 --> 01:16:44,399
be able to rank them are more
aggressively. But that's a group of third

1121
01:16:44,399 --> 01:16:47,079
basemen that you could potentially be on
the lookout for at the position. And

1122
01:16:47,119 --> 01:16:51,079
those are some underlying stats for you
guys. So just looking at the depth

1123
01:16:51,119 --> 01:16:54,840
charts and stuff, a couple teams
that could use the third baseman. I

1124
01:16:54,840 --> 01:16:57,840
think the Yankees need to figure something
out. Who is it going to be

1125
01:16:57,880 --> 01:17:00,640
over there? Because right now we
have DJ Mayhew listed as the starting third.

1126
01:17:00,720 --> 01:17:03,880
They've already committed they're committing to that, so all right, well,

1127
01:17:04,279 --> 01:17:06,399
I mean I don't know if his
body is going to commit to that,

1128
01:17:06,520 --> 01:17:13,399
So we'll see what happens there Toronto. Right now it's between Espinall and Bigio.

1129
01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:17,880
That's Domiono. That that's an interesting
case. Detroit, as you mentioned,

1130
01:17:17,880 --> 01:17:21,600
Colt, Keith, Possibility, Verling
and McKinstry are the other guys listed.

1131
01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:26,000
I mean, Oakland's doing nothing so
they can be ignored. Seattle has

1132
01:17:26,239 --> 01:17:30,920
Urius, Moore and Rojas competing for
a starting spot. We mentioned the Mets

1133
01:17:30,039 --> 01:17:35,079
earlier. Washington signed Nick Senzel.
Is he the answer at third? Is

1134
01:17:35,079 --> 01:17:39,520
a Carter Key boom. I don't
know what's going to happen there, and

1135
01:17:39,560 --> 01:17:43,199
then the Brewers with Monasterio, Owen
Miller, maybe Tyler Black gets it.

1136
01:17:44,239 --> 01:17:47,199
Just a couple teams looking for third
basement as well. So yeah, there's

1137
01:17:47,239 --> 01:17:51,000
there's some options out there. So
that's how we profile them. You guys

1138
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:55,239
make your decisions and we'll lead these
into the new year when we are talking

1139
01:17:55,319 --> 01:18:00,000
ranks. So hopefully you guys enjoyed
that episode because coming up next Outfield Profile

1140
01:18:00,079 --> 01:18:03,279
Files, oh Bully Outfield, and
then pictures to do. Yeah, as

1141
01:18:03,319 --> 01:18:06,239
we have a lot of profiles to
kind of get under my belt here as

1142
01:18:06,239 --> 01:18:10,640
well. We got Outfield and starting
Picture coming up in the next two weeks,

1143
01:18:11,000 --> 01:18:13,800
so that should be a lot of
fun and that will end oubt our

1144
01:18:13,840 --> 01:18:17,720
profile series when we're going to get
into the full spectrum of mock drafts and

1145
01:18:17,840 --> 01:18:21,960
prepped episodes and some other Closter ques. Well yes, yeah, well,

1146
01:18:23,000 --> 01:18:25,680
well, one of the things we
talked about will have it finalized. There's

1147
01:18:25,680 --> 01:18:27,880
a couple of things coming down the
pike that you guys are all going to

1148
01:18:27,920 --> 01:18:30,039
be very interested in. But one
of the things we have been talking about,

1149
01:18:30,279 --> 01:18:34,039
I think we've mentioned here is having
either like a weekly or at least

1150
01:18:34,159 --> 01:18:40,359
monthly Patreon only podcast that's answering questions. It might be as simple as twenty

1151
01:18:40,399 --> 01:18:44,600
minutes, but we would literally do
a pod just for Patreon answering the questions,

1152
01:18:44,640 --> 01:18:46,239
and we'd have a thing lined up
there. So that's something to be

1153
01:18:46,319 --> 01:18:49,359
on the lookout for Christmas special in
a couple of weeks. Ranks all the

1154
01:18:49,399 --> 01:18:53,359
other stuff go to in this league
dot com and we appreciate you because you're

1155
01:18:53,359 --> 01:18:56,520
supporting us, and that is like
the coolest thing on the planet. For

1156
01:18:56,720 --> 01:18:59,960
Bogman on Twitter at Bogman's Sports.
You can find me at is It the

1157
01:19:00,000 --> 01:19:01,720
Welsh that'll do it for the third
base profiles and we'll talk to you next

1158
01:19:01,720 --> 01:19:05,479
week. Right here, I'm in
this leak fantasy baseball podcast base Friends Sawyer

1159
01:19:12,039 --> 01:19:12,600
mm hmm.