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availability and eligibility may vary. It's not. For our early off season conversation
series with Joe Gidburry. Today we're going to start with the big Bengals free
agent decisions. You are Locked On Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast,
part of the Locked On Podcast Network, Your Team every Day Bengals fans,
and welcome to another episode of the Locked On Bengals Podcast. I'm your host,
Jake, Let's go. He's your host. James R. Pember joined
today for the first of a multi episode series with Joe Gebbarry to talk about
a variety of Cincinnati Bengals off season targets topics starting today with T. Higgins
and some of the other big decisions to Bengals have to make about their approach
to free agency. Some of their own guys certainly part of that conversation.
Today's episode sponsored by LinkedIn, who helps you find the qualified candidates you want
to talk too faster? You can post your job for free at LinkedIn dot
com slash locked on NFL terms and conditions applying guys, Let's start the conversation
with T. Higgins. A question that is often at by Bengals fans over
the last two years is can the Bengals afford to pay T Higgins, Joe
Burrow and Jamar Chase. The answer to that question has always been yes.
The follow up question is should the Bengals pay T Higgins, Joe Burrow and
Jamar Chase long term? And Joe, you just did a whole episode of
Bengals on the Brain sponsored by First Star Logistics. You can find over on
YouTube about this, and that's why I'm framing the conversation initially this way.
There's so many different angles that you can discuss with this T Higgins decision.
What do you think The most important question is when discussing the future for the
Bengals and T Higgins, should they do it? You know, if you
framed it as can they and they can? Should they do it? Is
the big part of the conversation, and it pulls at both sides of you
that your heartstrings and then you're well, you know how much room is left
if you pay and spend thirty five to forty percent of your cap on three
players And they're three good players, and they're pillar players in this offense in
the run they just made the last few years. But yeah, you have
to wonder if that's the best way to allocate resources. And we've seen wide
receiver trades the last few years, the amount of return that these other teams
have gotten, the Bengals can get something similar that could be a huge boost
to this offense for the next few years. So you have to wonder,
are they getting value at T Higgins at twenty plus million, you know where
the cap number may be twenty one, twenty two or even an extension pass
that or would it be better for this team long term to use those resources
and reinvest. Yeah, it's it's such a delimit. It's the biggest offseason
question, and I think there's a couple of ways to look at. And
I do wonder just like four years ninety million get it done less than AJ
Brown, But I don't think he's AJ Brown, even though he's close.
So let's just use that example, and we'll just do three buckets shoe four
years ninety million extension for Tea, And I know the guaranteed money matters a
ton. Let's just use those numbers for now twenty one point seven million roughly
for the franchise tag, or and you keep him in play out the twenty
twenty four season with him on the roster, or franchise tag, trade him
to Let's just use Carolina as the example, because Bryce Young's throwing to me
right now and they need receivers. That's a shot at Adam Adam Feelin.
There we go. I couldn't think of his name, Sorry, Adam,
we're the same age. Or trade him to Carolina for the thirty third overall
pick, tag him, trade him, and now you have an extra pick
in this year's draft. Yeah, it feels like the best option would be
to facilitate that trade and figure out you know, the best value you can
get fort T. Higgins use that thirty third pick. And here's the other
part too, the Bengals will draft the receiver if that were the case,
Like you, what would the odds be if they lose to Higgins and Tyler
Boyd? If Vegas put numbers on the Bengals drafting a first round or second
round spending one of those first three picks on a wide receiver, it'd be
extremely high. So they would replace. And they've been a good and aggressive
rafting wide receiver team, so I would have confidence that they'd be able to
fill that role somewhat. But yes, I think the other hard part of
this is if you tag him and cannot trade him, or if the Bengals
overvalue him for what other teams like if they say, no, we want
a first round pick and we're gonna be sticklers about it, which that sounds
like the Bengals and the Panthers are like, hey, we've got the thirty
third pick. This is almost as good as you're going to get. And
they say no, we want to first we think he's worth this, YadA,
YadA, YadA, and they don't get it done, and it's a
situation where Higgins isn't there for camp, right, we just had this with
Jesse Bates and then he shows up, he's ready for week one and just
plugging him into this offense and he and Burrow aren't on the same page or
it's not ready to go, it's not ready to happen. It's as a
rough and rocky year for a guy you're paying twenty two million dollars to that
could hurt your offense in more ways. So and he seems like a good
dude where he's going to show up and he's going to do his thing when
he gets there, but there are still ramifications for doing that. So I
think it is a fine line with those two options. And then we talked
about, you know, just allocating that any resources. If that contract worked
for Tea in his side four years ninety million, does that work in saying
now we can't pay Kappa and Karris or Kapa and Kris type players when you
need two more starting offensive linemen. You already need a starting right tackle this
offseason. Go a year later now you need a maybe a left guard,
maybe you need a center, maybe you need another defensive tackle. Wherever the
positions are, you're going to now have less parts of the pie to give
out to those spots. I think a big part of the conversation as well
that we haven't mentioned yet that needs to be discussed as C Higgins has had
unfortunately durability issues. Every season there has been an injury. This caused him
to miss time his rookie year. He just didn't get under the field in
time. He played sixteen games that year. So rookie year, Okay Fine
did have the nagging hamstring that kind of was around in the off season process
for him, in the draft prep process for him. But in twenty twenty
one, according to Over the Cap, played about sixty five percent of the
team's snaps. Twenty twenty two, played a career high sixty eight percent of
the Bengals offensive snaps, into twenty twenty three played fifty three percent of the
Bengals offensive snaps. So, say this is a player that when he's fully
healthy, is worth twenty eight million dollars a year, you don't discount to
sixty eight percent or fifty two percent or whatever, sixty three percent if you
take the average of what he's worth when he's healthy, Because if you look
at the over the Cap of valuation tool. When t Higgins is healthy and
having good weeks, they put those weeks on a yearly value of twenty two
to twenty five and a half million dollars. But then you miss a bunch
of time and you have weeks that are not that valuable, because that's the
nature of the NFL. Unless you're Justin Jefferson, they're down weeks. And
even Justin Jefferson had down weeks. So how do you figure out what that
number is if you're the Bengals, And even if you figure out what that
number is, decide if that's actually a good contract. That's what's really hard.
And there's a history of soft tissue injuries. And if your tea's side
or tea's agent, why would you agree to anything that maybe put in provisions
of per game active roster bonuses or anything to safeguard the Bengals in any way,
because you wouldn't have to worry about yeah, and you wouldn't have to
worry about that if you reach free agency, right like the Jaguars would throw
crazy money at you, the Jets, the Panthers, name the teams that
spend in free agency, they won't worry about that. They'll spend now and
figure it out later. Where the Bengals, rightfully, if they ask for
those things, it would make sense on our end to say, like,
hey, just in case you miss time, we should recoup some of this
money because it's a huge asset. It's a huge portion of the pie.
You'd be giving them both receivers because Jamar Chase will also likely be extended this
offseason. So Joe just from strictly an extension standpoint, given the durability,
given what team means, given the position, given how well the Bengals draft
there, would you try to extend him at the inevitable numbers that it would
take to sign him, or do you think tagging and trading is the best
route? Like, what what would you do if the Bengals call you tomorrow
and Duke Tobin says, we're going to follow your lead here. I would
suggest to tag and trade and find and get whatever resources and draft picks you
could possibly get out of it. If that is even a second and maybe
they throwing a fifth rounder from the Panthers, you know, thirty three and
then a fifth round or fine, whatever I can maximize out of it.
The hard part is I've always preached that when you draft these guys and you
develop them and they become everything you hoped they would be. And you would
say that about t Higgins. It's hard to let those guys walk, and
you shouldn't let those guys walk. These are good players. The Jesse Bates
a year ago, Kevin Zeitler, you know a handful of years that are
he's still playing and still very good. And it takes you years to replace
these guys because you miss a draft pick, or you think you John Miller
can play right guard, or you think Brandon Lafel can be the receiver that
to replace Mohammed Sanu and Marb Jones, like, it doesn't always work.
To replacement isn't always better than the option of just paying the guy, and
then you lift your head two years later and all that contract's not so bad
because ten other receivers have been paid afterwards, and I think it was twenty
seven receivers had one thousand yard seasons this past year, the most ever.
I mean, these guys are going to all get paid, but it also
means that it's probably easier to find a one thousand yard receiver than ever before.
They're coming out of college every year. We're like man, another crazy
good wide receiver class. The value there is probably as cheap as it's ever
been at the receiver position. You probably shouldn't pay a number. Two more
to talk about with the t Higgins decision and the various directions the Bengals could
go not only with the Higgins but with other free agents as well. We'll
continue those topics with Joe coming up next. This episode of Lockdown Bengals is
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Joe, let's continue with the offseason discussion in the Bengals approach. We know
how you feel about T Higgins, but he's not the only guy. And
let's just stick with the offense now because Jonah Williams, a guy who a
lot of people went at the trade last offseason, stays healthy, plays every
snap is on the field the entire time at right tackle is set to be
one of the top, maybe the top offensive linemen. And free agency,
do you think the Bengals have a chance of retaining him, or do you
just assume that he's out the door. I am assuming he's out the door.
And if I found it negative about the prospects of keeping T Higgins,
I'm even less keen on the idea of extending or finding common ground with John
Williams. And I like John Williams, and I think he's been maybe wrongfully
hated on a little bit too much. He's a solid starting tackle and what
that means is he's going to get paid a big chunk of money in free
agency, and in fact, not worth it for the Bengals to even chase
it, because I think they need to elevate and raise the roof of this
offensive line. They need to get better there somehow. And really the only
answer there is you find a value free agent number one, and maybe that's
a guy like Jermaine and luminor or Trent Brown or Michael and when you can
play that position, or it's we spent a first or second round pick and
we strike gold and the guy's making four million dollars a year and he's a
good starting right tackle by year two, and now we've saved money and you
elevated the overall talent on the offensive line. I think keeping Jonah at sixteen
million dollars a year, if it even gets higher, is a negative value
overall because you're paying a premium for average, and I think the Bengals need
to avoid that as much as possible moving forward, because it's now you're in
a different time. When you pay Joe Burrow and the cap hits start coming,
you've got to maximize the value at the other fifty two roster spots as
much as possible. And yeah, you got to overpay for some guy.
You've got to overpay maybe a little bit for ORLANDA Brown, even though that
was a very favorable contract sixteenth highest cap hit for tackles. But then you're
going to overpay a little bit for Jamaar Chase first couple years. Those are
those are accepted. There is another chunk of this roster that you cannot afford
to overspend on. It's a value proposition. It's spending on average. Like
you said, it's something that we're going to talk about in this series,
not necessarily get into depth on today, but I like that you allude to
that point. There are a few things that have come up if you're paying
close attention that you're going to hear come up in some of the later topics
that we discussed. But I do think that that makes sense for Jonah Williams.
But at the same time you mentioned Jermaine Luminar. I don't think you
can get to a point in the draft where it's draft pick or bust.
You don't want to be in that situation ever. And as a position,
the Bengals have mostly avoided by trying to draft into the future. But when
they try to draft into the future, those guys they've drafted to be the
successor starters have almost never been ready to play at the level of the player
that we replacing. So that's another topic that perhaps we need to get through.
But when you look at the Bengals list of free agents, Joe the
Tyler boys should obi a Woozia's DJ Reider. Those are the other big name
guys, the guys that are playing huge roles for this team, the guys
that are starting level roles for this team. Do any of them look like
guys that you would prioritize bringing back. Yeah, I would have to be
Dj Reider, and given his age and injury, history as well. He's
played even less snaps than Tee Higgins over his four years. I think it
was at forty three percent of the defensive snaps. Number One, because he's
a nose tackle, he's not gonna be out there for one hundred percent of
snaps. Ever, maybe the cap for that position sixty five percent of the
snaps even if you were fully healthy. But still it means he has dealt
with injuries and can the Bengals afford to have a guy again that if he
gives you half the season at a premium pay and then misses the other half,
that's a negative value on the in your cap limits. So it makes
sense with his age also that the Bengals just may not be able to find
common ground unless he goes out there and there's nothing there for DJ Reader and
those same concerns are felt around the league. And he comes back and rehabs
and finishes what he started. Maybe it's a one or two year deal and
the Bengals get him out of value contract. Otherwise I see a Woozier and
Boyd as opportunities to upgrade, especially Boyd. I think this conversation probably applies
to him most. He's been a good player for the Bengals, a very
good slot receiver. He's done. He's been exactly what the pre draft scouting
reports said he would be. He was that and even more for his character
and leadership. But this team need to get faster. They need to get
more explosive, They need to get better after the catch, They need to
get more versatile. I think one of the issues that really they've struggled with
lately and maybe even has capped Jamar Chase's statistical production, is that Tyler Boyd
has to be in the slot to be good. And when you get him
out of there, and maybe you can move Chase more into the slot,
maybe you can get Charlie Jones a bit more speed, Maybe you can mix
things up just a little bit more with and we saw it the last few
weeks when they started rotating Charlie Jones in more speed slot options, just in
his routes with the jet motions pre snap. You saw how differently the vision
is with a guy that's just a little bit faster. Again, not trying
to knock Tyler, but the opportunity to get different and the opportunity to get
better because you're different, more versatile, is there at that position and desperately.
I'm very excited to see how the Bengals attack that if they do it
all, even if it's just Charlie Jones, fine, but I think there
is room there for say, like, Okay, this tight end can do
this, this running back can go and split out wide. You can get
another outside receiver and move Chase inside it. If there's a lot of options,
a lot of meat on the bone there, we definitely have to discuss
running back coming up. You mentioned DJ Reader, and I think one it's
DJ Reader, but it's that entire room that's up. Josh Tupo's a free
agent. J two Fela is not a big part of it, but certainly
one that's scheduled to hit free agency as well. Do you think it's gonna
be bj Hill and a bunch of new faces essentially outside of Zach Carter,
who's obviously going into year three and can we punt Zach Zach Carter to the
moon also, like I don't want to see him playing anymore, I'll be
honest. Is that that if you Brad Robins, Brad Robbinson shanking, let
Brad Robbins punt Zach Carter This might be your best offseason content right here.
Who can we punt off the roster? No, one doesn't have the leg.
By the way, A small correction, we got this wrong. I
got this wrong the other day. J. T. Felly is actually under
contract for twenty twenty four. Wow. Great, Well that doesn't mean he's
going to be on the roster, right just I got that wrong the other
day too, So he should be. He should be on the man.
Will he make the roster as we discuss camp, Yes, I think it's
fair to say so. They need a nose tackle and if it's not Reader,
they definitely need one. And then they still even when Reader was there
throughout the year, it's like they don't have an interior pass rusher. They
don't have a penetrator at three tech, a guy that can really cause havoc
and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. I looked at tackles for a
loss for the Bengals this year, all time low for them in the last
ten years, Like obviously from Geno Atkins when he used to get fifteen tackles
for a loss, it was amazing. But then Larry Ogunjobi, I want
to say at eleven and I think this year their defensive tackle room had less
than ten total. I think it was at nine. So they're not penetrating,
they're not getting back there. You're not getting those you know. Negative
two, negative three are runs that I think really helped we see penalties and
secks what they do on first and second down to create advantageous third downs.
Bengals didn't have a lot of those this year because they are a poor against
the run, but because also they weren't getting a lot of tackles for a
loss. So I think not just a nose tackle, but ad tackle as
well. You can need two guys in this room. You can make an
argument that three guys should probably be added to this and maybe that's a solid
B level free agent D tackle eventually a first round D tackle, second round,
third round D tackle, and then maybe a vet value guy later.
The Bengals haven't drafted a defensive tackle in the first round since nineteen ninety four.
For those wondering, both of you guys were older than me. I
was just three then. So we'll see if they do that. But I
mentioned running back. Let's discuss running back coming up next. Today's show is
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go more than an episode on the Lockdown Bengals podcast without discussing running backs.
This week, I think this is three in a row? Should we not
get me three in a row? No? Not, No, I mean
we we should. I think that it's not necessarily a free agent conversation,
but we can talk running back in terms of how it fits into priorities,
and in that sense, it is a free agent conversation, but not an
internal free agent conversation, which is where we can Oh it is we have
been talking internal free agents. You want to talk about Trevion Williams. No,
let's talk about Joe Mixon. Do three million dollars on March sixteenth?
Joe, Yeah, would not free game or not. But it's the same
thing though it's a decision, yeah, Jener. I don't think it is
a decision when the it's when the restructure happened from the source that at that
time it was first related to me that this will be a one year,
this will be his last year in Cincinnati, and then the information came out
that is actually two. And then when you look at it, like oh,
because they can save a decent chunk in twenty twenty four and he's got
that roster bonus. I think that person was reading the tea leaves and was
saying like, yeah, he'll never see that March third bonus whenever that is.
So, I have been projecting that they're going to release Joe Mixon.
I know that gets the comments going every time. You know people, he
had a productive season for what he was given in the situation, and I
would hope most guys that get three hundred touches can pull in that amun the
yardage. So it's not again, I don't want to knock the guy too
bad because he stayed healthy, he didn't fumble the ball. Those are great
qualities to have. But I do think, like Tyler Boyd, the Bengals
are going to look at this opportunity to become more versatile, become deeper,
and they have maybe some more explosive plays at that position, and I think
that includes free agency and potentially the draft as well. The interesting thing with
Mixon is that from a cap perspective, it's more of a cap issue than
a cast issue for me. And this is the scenario that I've talked about
on this podcast before. The front office could look at it and say,
you know what, we only have to pay in five million dollars five and
a half million dollars cash this year, but it's an eight and a half
million dollar capit, So I think if I think that could be a true
cap casualty kind of decision for mixing off his cap number was the same as
his cash number this year, five and a half million, whatever it is.
I think the Bengals will be totally fine with that, seeing what they
saw from Chase Brown later in the year, seeing Joe Mixon's increase efficiency when
they were splitting carries a little bit more. But one thing you and I
have talked about, Joe, one thing that we've talked about, you know,
over the last couple of years, is trying to find a back somebody
that I kept talking about in yesterday's episode, that can block, that can
catch, that has a little bit of explosion to his game. I keep
coming back to Mantonio Gibson for free agency. This class is a top heavy
free agent class. Hard to convince yourself that the Bengals are going to go
bend on a top level free agent running back. And it's a bad draft
class and the depth of running back. There's some guys out there, but
none of them really check all three of those boxes. That's why I always
end up coming back to samashefre Ryan too, because even though there's not explosion
there, at least he can do those things and it's not a tip like
Trayvon Williams is a tip that the Bengals are passing the ball and Travion Williams
is on the field. At least you get a guy baseline that can do
all three things and isn't tipping your hand. But what are you looking for
or are there realistic targets? I guess this offseason that you think could do
those things when your only other guy if they do move on from Joe Mixon,
is Chase Brown, who you saw a handful of carries from late in
the year. Yeah, and I think they walked into this season with a
very poor depth chart at running back. You know, Travon Williams, he
probably wouldn't be on another roster, right, maybe as a fourth guy somewhere
else, but the Bengals at times we're using him as a number two because
they had no other options. Chris Evans gets the first carry of the season
and we never see him again. That was it for him, you know.
So it's like it's it's such a bad situation. We talked about defensive
tackle could be three new guys. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire depth
chart other than Chase Brown was completely different at running back, and I think
that largely comes from having the opportunity to get value at that position, where
if it's a last year Devin Signaltary, we talked about him plenty of times,
like as a guy that could just do it all. Yeah, he's
not a four to three, not a four to four to six y five
guy, but he still made guys miss and you didn't have to take him
off the field in certain situations. Having more guys like that on this roster
where I don't have to give mixing three hundred carries or touches would be ideal.
I'm excited for the opportunity for a running back by committee. If that's
an AJ Brown paired with Chase Brown, or Antonio Gibson paired with Chase Brown
and a fourth round pick, or a Clyde Edwards Hilaire and a third round
pick and Chase Brown, like three guys say, Hey, they're all different
skill sets, they all do different things differently, and we're just gonna mix
them around and go with it, Like, let's stop pigeonholing these guys into
one spot and saying, Travon Williams past protext, Joe Mixon's runs and Chase
Brown catches screens like stop that. Let's just get three guys that can play
and use them. You can't have guys that are so one dimensional, you
said, AJ Brown. Just want to make sure you meant AJ Dillon.
I believe I did. Yeah, let's what AJ Brown at running back?
Though he's very disgruntled right now, but yes, AJ Dillon, I mean
AJ Brown. You heard it here first, quickly before we get out of
here, tight end. Obviously there's nobody in that room that is free agency.
They're all free agents to be Uh, yeah they are. So what
do you do? Who do you bring back of the current guys? And
why is at R Smith Junior? Yeah he will go. He'll find it
out somewhere. But you caught me up guard with that one. Tanner Hudson
and Drew Sample Sure, I'm ringing both them back, and neither should be
overly expensive. I think, Uh, there's two guys with concrete roles that
don't intertwine or intersect at all, So you gotta have to be careful with
who you add to that room. They still need a tight end one.
I think Hudson did his thing and overshot expectations despite what we saw in the
summer and said, hey, this guy is probably the best receiving tight end
he was that It took them six weeks to figure that out. But yeah,
I do think they need a tight end still. They have a lot
of options to go there. And it's supposedly a week tight end draft class.
So do you attack it in free agency and not wait until the draft
so that you can be bypassed by all these other teams taking tight ends?
Again, I think they get a little more aggressive this year in free agency
and go for it and fill it that way. One of the topics to
discuss, and obviously we're not very deep into this draft class yet, but
if you listen to our episode with Mike Runner last Friday or Thursday, the
just from him and he's got an article actually on the Messenger ranking the positions
in the draft class tight end running back bottom not good and so one of
the things that we have to talk about when we talk about is this an
opportunity for the Bengals to change their personnel philosophy or how should they allocate their
resources, which is what we're going to do in tomorrow's episode. One of
the factors there is where are the strengths and weaknesses in this draft class and
free agency class because also kind of thin its height end in free agency,
and how does that push the Bengals approach this off season. Like I said,
we'll get to some of those conversations with Joe coming up in tomorrow's episode,
So make sure you come back for the next couple where we're talking more
off season topics with Joe Gibbray here on the Lockdown Bengals podcast. Until then,
thanks for listening who day and having a one