1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:05,400 What's the deal with Blue Origin and their long promised but still totally unseen mega 2 00:00:05,519 --> 00:00:09,839 rocket, the New Glen. In theory, Blue Origin should be right up 3 00:00:09,839 --> 00:00:15,080 there with SpaceX leading the next generation of space exploration. They were both founded 4 00:00:15,119 --> 00:00:18,440 at more or less the same time, with more or less the same goal 5 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,640 by two men who would go on to become more or less equally rich and 6 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:27,239 successful. Blue Origin and Bezos love to talk a big game, they just 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:32,079 never have much to show for it. But this all changes in twenty twenty 8 00:00:32,079 --> 00:00:37,640 four with the debut of their first orbital rocket, or does it? This 9 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,759 is the space race. The New Glen is a project that has been under 10 00:00:41,759 --> 00:00:46,000 development at Blue Origin since around twenty twelve. The design of the rocket was 11 00:00:46,079 --> 00:00:50,840 finally revealed at a presentation by Jeff Bezos in twenty sixteen, which showed off 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:57,000 a gigantic new rocket design with a fully reusable booster core. At the time, 13 00:00:57,119 --> 00:01:00,799 there was nothing like New Glen. Bezos actually managed to get his announcement 14 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:07,519 in about two weeks before Elon Musk debuted the Interplanetary Transport System concept that would 15 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:12,280 eventually go on to become Starship. Fundamentally, though, New Glen is an 16 00:01:12,439 --> 00:01:19,280 entirely different vehicle than its or starship. New Glen offers the same futuristic appearance, 17 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:23,760 but its functionality is more grounded in traditional rocketry, basically doing the same 18 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:29,640 job as a Falcon nine, just with more size and more power. At 19 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,640 the heart of this booster are seven of the new B E four engines that 20 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:38,840 make a combined three point eight five million pounds of thrust burning liquid methane and 21 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,480 liquid oxygen fuel. Blue Origin says that's good for up to forty five metric 22 00:01:42,519 --> 00:01:48,480 tons of capacity to low Earth orbit. Compared to the methane burning SpaceX Raptor 23 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,319 two that powers the starship, the B E four offers a little bit more 24 00:01:52,359 --> 00:01:56,239 thrust two hundred and fifty metric tons versus two hundred and thirty, but it's 25 00:01:56,280 --> 00:02:00,359 also a significantly bigger engine than the Raptor. Blue Origin likes to call the 26 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:06,799 B four a medium performance version of a high performance architecture, and what they 27 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:10,039 mean by that is the engine is overbuilt for the purpose that it's being used 28 00:02:10,039 --> 00:02:14,719 for. They're never going to push the system to its limit the way that 29 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:19,639 SpaceX does with their Raptor. The B four operates at a much lower chamber 30 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,599 pressure, and that should result in a more consistent and reliable engine. Considering 31 00:02:23,599 --> 00:02:28,120 that eight out of thirty three raptors failed on the first launch of the Starship, 32 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,280 Blue Origin might have the right idea here. It's not the power that 33 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,840 makes New Glen special, though, it's the size. While a Falcon Heavy 34 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,960 might still offer over one million pounds more thrust, the New Glen has a 35 00:02:39,039 --> 00:02:45,800 forty percent wider cargo firing at seven meters in diameter plus around double the length 36 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:50,599 of a standard Falcon nose cone. SpaceX has talked about making an extended length 37 00:02:50,599 --> 00:02:53,560 fairing for the Falcon Heavy, but we have yet to see it done. 38 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:58,400 So New Glen is much closer to Starship in terms of size and cargo volume, 39 00:02:58,439 --> 00:03:01,520 although with nowhere near the power. Blue Origins claim of forty five metric 40 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:06,639 tons to low Earth orbit is a bit questionable considering the size of the rocket 41 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,960 and the thrust that it has available, plus the need to reserve fuel for 42 00:03:10,039 --> 00:03:14,240 the landing burn. It would be a lot more plausible to say forty five 43 00:03:14,319 --> 00:03:19,080 tons in an expendable mode where the booster is sacrificed and the BEE four engines 44 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:23,520 are run closer to their actual limit. Either way, it's looking like the 45 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,599 niche that New Glen is going after here is customers who want to put very 46 00:03:27,759 --> 00:03:32,879 large objects into relatively low altitude orbits. But aside from deploying the core modules 47 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:38,240 of Blue Origins own Orbital Reef space station, it's unclear how much of a 48 00:03:38,319 --> 00:03:42,280 market there really is for this kind of a service. It's actually a bit 49 00:03:42,319 --> 00:03:46,199 hard to imagine just what Blue Origin was thinking when they designed New Glen, 50 00:03:46,319 --> 00:03:51,159 Like why is it so big? What's the purpose for making the rockets so 51 00:03:51,319 --> 00:03:54,639 wide? Other than just looking really cool. We know why Starship is so 52 00:03:54,719 --> 00:03:59,159 gigantic, and there are several good reasons for it. Because it has to 53 00:03:59,199 --> 00:04:02,680 move a large crew of people from Earth to Mars, and people need space 54 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,360 to live. Because it has to be able to carry one hundred metric tons 55 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:10,879 of stuff all the way to the surface of Mars. Because it has to 56 00:04:10,879 --> 00:04:14,159 be able to land on Mars, then lift off, and then re enter 57 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:18,360 Earth's atmosphere and then land again. That all demands a big ass rocket. 58 00:04:18,639 --> 00:04:24,399 And for the original its design, Elon had wanted a twelve meter diameter ship, 59 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,959 so he had to compromise at nine meters diameter for the final Starship plus 60 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,800 SpaceX already has their own use case for the low Earth orbit capability of Starship. 61 00:04:34,079 --> 00:04:39,480 They need it to deploy the final constellation of ten thousand Starlink V two 62 00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:45,720 satellites, and obviously NASA considers that capability useful enough to choose Starship as their 63 00:04:45,759 --> 00:04:50,040 new crude landing vehicle for the Moon. So as ridiculous as Starship, maybe 64 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:57,079 there are legitimate reasons for it to exist. Even in the promotional animation for 65 00:04:57,199 --> 00:05:02,279 New Glen, Blue Origin just shows it deploy one single generic looking satellite thing, 66 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:06,360 which at scale would be the biggest satellite ever launched, and it's hard 67 00:05:06,399 --> 00:05:12,199 to believe that something like this is really necessary in a world where technology is 68 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,399 constantly shrinking in size. Though, even with all of that said, in 69 00:05:15,439 --> 00:05:19,959 April twenty twenty three, it was announced the New Glen is going to Mars, 70 00:05:20,079 --> 00:05:25,319 or at least it's going to be used to send too much smaller spaceships 71 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,639 on their way to Mars. These two crafts are called the Escape and Plasma 72 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:35,160 Acceleration and Dynamics Explorers or ESCAPADE, and they're based on Rocket Labs Photon kickstage 73 00:05:35,319 --> 00:05:40,279 that is typically used on top of the Electron rocket, which is tiny, 74 00:05:40,399 --> 00:05:44,720 so each vehicle is only about five hundred and fifty kilograms in weight and with 75 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:49,519 dimensions of seventy centimeters wide by ninety centimeters long, So it's like if you 76 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:54,800 and a friend called an uber and an empty school bus showed up to drive 77 00:05:54,879 --> 00:05:59,000 you. Even the people in charge of Escapade have literally said that the New 78 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:03,800 Glen is quote massively oversized for this particular mission, but they didn't have much 79 00:06:03,879 --> 00:06:09,079 choice in the assignment. New Glen and Escapade were paired up under a NASA 80 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:14,920 program called the Venture Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare or VADER, and the 81 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,360 idea is that NASA helps to connect low stakes missions with new and unproven launch 82 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:26,079 vehicles. Basically, Escapade isn't a critical Mars mission. It's not carrying a 83 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,439 new rover or a multibillion dollar instrument, so it doesn't really matter if the 84 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,600 mission gets delayed or even if it fails to reach Mars at all. Not 85 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:38,480 the end of the world, and therefore it's a perfect opportunity to test out 86 00:06:38,519 --> 00:06:42,920 New Glen and just see what it does. The most interesting thing here is 87 00:06:42,959 --> 00:06:46,680 that Escapade is scheduled to launch in the second half of twenty twenty four, 88 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:50,600 probably around September to October, and because this is a mission to Mars, 89 00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:55,720 they only have a limited window of time when the two planets are at their 90 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,639 closest distance. If they miss that window, then the mission has to wait 91 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:05,199 at two years before they have another opportunity. The timeline here is fascinating because 92 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:10,480 as far as we know, the New Glen only exists in computer renderings. 93 00:07:10,759 --> 00:07:14,199 We've seen the B four engine, and we've seen a full scale model of 94 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:17,319 the first stage booster, but we have yet to see a functional New Glenn 95 00:07:17,319 --> 00:07:23,920 prototype perform any kind of live testing. And maybe we're just spoiled by SpaceX 96 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,519 and the way that they've been developing the Starship out in the open for everyone 97 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,959 to see. That's definitely not usual for a new rocket, But you would 98 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,959 think that seven years into development and about one year out from this mission to 99 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:40,279 Mars, that New Glenn would have at least given us a sign of life. 100 00:07:41,199 --> 00:07:45,959 Considering that SpaceX has totally revised the design of Starship like four times between 101 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,680 the its presentation in twenty sixteen and the BFR in twenty eighteen, they were 102 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:55,519 still able to begin flight testing the little Starhopper prototype in twenty twenty, and 103 00:07:55,639 --> 00:07:59,560 by the spring of twenty twenty one they had managed to fly an upper stage 104 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:03,600 prototype to an altitude of ten kilometers and even landed successfully on the ground. 105 00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:09,120 And then it was another two years after that to get a full scale rocket 106 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,519 in the air for an orbital test flight. The best indication that we have 107 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:18,839 on the progress of New Glen comes from this Escapade mission announcement we heard from 108 00:08:18,839 --> 00:08:24,120 Arianne Cornell, the vice president of Commercial Orbital astronaut and International Sales at Blue 109 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,439 Origin. She told the media quote, it will be an early New Glen 110 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,600 mission and we are going to be ready. But you should never take a 111 00:08:31,639 --> 00:08:35,840 salesperson's word for anything. So we can also turn to the principal investigator for 112 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,799 Escapade, Rob Lillis of the University of California, Berkeley Space Science Laboratory. 113 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:45,720 He said about New Glen, quote, it hasn't launched yet and we are 114 00:08:45,799 --> 00:08:48,960 concerned about that. But having seen the Blue Origin facility at Cape Canaveral, 115 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,519 I was much less concerned after seeing all the work they've done, I'm confident 116 00:08:54,799 --> 00:08:58,039 they will likely be ready for the launch of Escapade. So this guy has 117 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:03,519 had an opportunity to see something that the rest of us haven't, and he 118 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,919 seems to have been impressed with what he saw. Though I want to go 119 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:11,759 back to that quote and repeat this one line. I'm confident they will likely 120 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:16,399 be ready for the launch of Escapade. He chose to insert that word likely 121 00:09:16,519 --> 00:09:20,840 into his comments, so I don't think the man is fully convinced. Aside 122 00:09:20,879 --> 00:09:24,639 from what progress may or may not have been made in the vehicle itself, 123 00:09:24,639 --> 00:09:28,960 we are also watching the development of the Bee four engine very carefully, and 124 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,159 this seems to be the one area where Blue Origin has excelled. The company 125 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,679 was very fortunate to sell United Launch Alliance on using the Bee four to power 126 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:41,919 the core stage of their new Vulcan cent Or rocket, which is a design 127 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,799 that is significantly more mature than New Glen. So in theory, the ULA 128 00:09:46,879 --> 00:09:52,480 Vulcan should be flight testing the Bee four well in advance of New Glen, 129 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:58,879 and that is incredibly useful information for Blue Origin to have. Unfortunately for them, 130 00:09:58,919 --> 00:10:01,159 the Vulcan, which was supposed to launch for the first time this summer, 131 00:10:01,279 --> 00:10:05,759 has been unexpectedly delayed by a flaw in the design of the Centaur upper 132 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:11,200 stage. It actually exploded on a test stand a few months ago, but 133 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,960 we didn't know the cause. That's now been revealed as a structural weakness in 134 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,559 the ultra thin steel skin of the outer shell, So the rocket actually has 135 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:22,679 to be redesigned with a reinforced structure, and then a new test candidate has 136 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,960 to be constructed again. This is the upper stage, so the problem has 137 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,759 nothing to do with Blue Origin. The B four engines have so far performed 138 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,639 perfectly, and the booster had a successful static fire test that confirmed it is 139 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:39,639 ready for launch. But now they have to wait for the upper stage to 140 00:10:39,639 --> 00:10:46,120 be rebuilt and retested before we can even consider another launch attempt. So at 141 00:10:46,159 --> 00:10:48,960 this point we might not see a flight test for the Bee four in twenty 142 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,799 twenty three. That means Blue Origin just has to continue on with new Glen 143 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,919 and hope for the best. So back when Blue Origin was just starting out, 144 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,320 they had this mission statement grid datum ferositare, which means step by step 145 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:05,919 ferociously. It's kind of like a tortoise and the hair thing. They even 146 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:11,000 started painting turtles onto the side of their new Shepherd rocket after every flight. 147 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:16,840 It's a pretty respectable strategy and it comes as a pretty stark contrast to the 148 00:11:16,919 --> 00:11:22,240 move fast and break stuff methodology over at SpaceX. The Blue Origin roadmap was 149 00:11:22,279 --> 00:11:26,240 to first perfect the art of suborbital rocketry with the New Shepherd, then leverage 150 00:11:26,279 --> 00:11:31,440 that accomplishment into the orbital New Glen, and then leverage that into an even 151 00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:35,600 more capable New Armstrong Moon rocket. But looking at their track record, it's 152 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,720 starting to feel like Blue Origin has lost its way. They'd never really developed 153 00:11:39,759 --> 00:11:45,000 New Shepherd to the maturity and launch cadence that it was intended for. They 154 00:11:45,039 --> 00:11:48,679 flew a handful of crude launches, then had one catastrophic failure, and haven't 155 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,799 really touched the rocket since. Now they're still trying to push New Glen into 156 00:11:52,799 --> 00:11:58,240 service without any proper testing or any real reason for their rocket to even exist. 157 00:11:58,919 --> 00:12:01,639 They want to build a space they want to land on the Moon. 158 00:12:01,639 --> 00:12:05,679 They went from taking it step by step to trying to leap frog the entire 159 00:12:05,759 --> 00:12:09,879 competition and jump to the head of the pack without even reaching orbit. I 160 00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:15,120 can't stress that enough. Blue Origin has yet to put even one of their 161 00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:20,120 products into outer space, but they want to lead the space race now. 162 00:12:20,159 --> 00:12:22,799 To be perfectly clear, I haven't put anything in a space either, and 163 00:12:24,039 --> 00:12:26,960 I never will, so I'm not meaning to criticize, more like just pointing 164 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:31,240 out the obvious here, but it is a really interesting story to talk about, 165 00:12:31,279 --> 00:12:37,360 and we are genuinely fascinated to see what happens with the new Glen over 166 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:37,039 the year to come.