I got a ge I'd much rather own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies
it's for or treasury. Yeah darn, but yeah, you know it's interesting,
Carrie. It looked you know, we record that we're recording this on
Monday the twenty second. If you just go back to last Tuesday, the
whatever that is, sixteenth, man, it looked great. We looked like
we were ready to rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look
back and see why we've been under such pressure for the last three or four
days. You were listening to Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival network where you get
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I'm your host Carry Lutz, and our good friend Craig Hemp keys with
us and you find him at TF Metals Report dot com. Craig, go
the medals are going down right now. And thought we were at the Promised
Land but other good news. Bitcoin's going up. How about that? Hey,
you know what, you're got to have some zig and some zag in
your portfolio. A lot of people assume that I must hate bitcoin or something
because I've been a gold enthusiast now for fifteen years. But now I owned
both. Why wouldn't you own both? And so, yeah, that's been
nice to see. You know, it looked a little shapyh what a week
or two ago and it got down to what fifty five thousand or so?
Right, fifty four? Yeah, I got a gell. I'd much rather
own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies it's full or treasury. Yeah darn,
but yeah, you know it's interesting Carrie. It looked you know,
we record that we're recording this on Monday, the twenties. Second, if
you just go back to last Tuesday, the whatever that is, sixteenth.
Yeah, man, it looked great. We looked like we were ready to
rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look back and see why
we've been under such pressure for the last three or four days. And again,
I don't this is not surprising. Both medals are in kind of a
trading range and have been for either sixty or ninety days, depending on which
one you're looking at. I think we're set up though, after we get
through this week and probably next or at least the first part of next week,
we're set up for a very strong seasonal time August. Seasonally, if
you average out all the August over the last twenty five years, August on
average is the second best month of the year after January. So we're probably
just a little bit of a washout, getting some speculative money out of gold
and silver before we get the next leg higher. So we're gonna blow through
twenty five hundred. Obviously, where is it going to stop. We're going
to hit three thousand and then a pause. I don't think we'll make it
that far. You know, that's the hard part. Uh. You look
at silver and you can you know, and if you're trying to use a
chart, a price chart to figure out you know, where the next resistance
is, you look at silver and you oh, this is pretty clear.
And we talked about remember we had to get through twenty six, then you
had to get through twenty eight, and then once you got through twenty eight,
you're going to go above thirty. And now we can see thirty four
or thirty six, right, because that would those lows back in twenty eleven
and twenty twelve. But gold and gold's never been here before. Yeah,
so how do you try to project? Yeah? So, I mean there
are people that do fibonacci, you know, extensions and stuff like that.
Uh, carnal to say, let alone figure out how it works. See
right, I Uh, let's just say this, gold well and silver too
will continue to move higher in stages in a bull mark the way they always
have as long as the derivatives market is allowed to set the price, and
that's the discovery method that we have, then bull markets are gonna unroll the
way they always have, which is kind of two steps forward, one step
back. You get this big rush of excitement and inspecuative money comes in,
and the hedge funds get long and the banks get short, and then you
run out of momentum and you run out of buyers and price tips over and
breaks a moving average, and then the spec money floods out and the banks
cover their shorts, and then you reach the bottom. And then you go
back and think of it as like a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Did you see in just about anything. That's why I don't think three
thousands of next target. It's probably more like once you have a clear breakout,
there'll be another rush of enthusiasm, probably twenty six fifty ish twenty six
or something like that, and then okay, well twenty five hundred's with any
ear shot right, Oh last week it was within Yeah, we're looking at
it last week at this time, so yeah. Yeah. You know what's
nice carry is when you get into lawng trading ranges like this can work both
ways. You know, when you're breaking down and price keeps bouncing off the
support, and then everybody starts watching it and goes, oh, crap,
if we break down through that level of I got to get out and you
got all these cell stops in there. It works the other way though,
too, when you break out of a range and gold's now been in this
range for really ninety days, been up to twenty four fifty, twenty four,
seventy eighty three times now, the same thing is true everybody, Oh
it's a clear breakout. Okay, now there's and so that the longer you
stay in a range, the more likely that you're going to have, you
know, a pretty good popworn again. Look back at gold on the you
know, for from twenty and twenty, the middle of twenty twenty to the
first part of this year, gold kept banging up against two thousand, right,
and this long drawn out rage, and once it finally blasted through,
you would up one hundred dollars the next week, and then another two hundred
dollars in the next five weeks because everybody saw it. And that's what we'll
wait for as we get into August and September and that kind of break out
again. So what about silver, you know, that's been the comeback to
around the thirtieth range here and even lower. Yeah, it's under Silver is
back to kind of what do you remember, Well, like I just mentioned,
gold broke out in March. March the first was a Friday, you
know, it tried to break out December first and then just got the chart
got painted. Remember it's on a Sunday night, December the third. I
was at lambeau Field to watch the chiefs and the packers. That popped like
sixty bucks in like fifteen minutes of the session. Then they boom, they
hammered it down one hundred and twenty bucks and now the charts painted. Everybody
hates it, and they bought themselves. They be in the banks that you
know, monopolistically control that market. They bought themselves ninety days to kind of
get them their books right. And then on Friday, March the first ninety
days later, gold breaks out on the weekly chart, closed like twenty sixty
seven or twenty seventy five, something like that, on a clear breakout,
and then rallied one hundred dollars the next all right, so rallies through March.
There was like, well, why the hell is in silver going anywhere?
The same thing like now and again I think this The reason is the
same. It's because silver's kind of caught in the middle. You know.
You and I think of that as a monetary medal and an investment, but
most of the world thinks of it as an industrial metal. So it's this
combination. So think of you've got up on one side of a barbell.
You've got gold as a monetary medal, and you've got copper as an industrial
metal, and silver's kind of in between. And if both gold and copper
are going up, silver's going to go up. But if gold goes up
and copper goes down, silver just kind of stays in between. Does that
make sense, Yeah, and that's what's happening. Copper just blew higher in
April and May and dragged silver along with it. Copper got to over eleven
thousand a ton in London, it got to five five dollars and seventeen a
pound in New York in the middle of by, and now two months later
it's for to seventeen a pound. That's twenty percent decline. If silver were
to fall twenty percent from its highs, we'd be talking twenty six twenty seven.
So silver again, it's just kind of like I think that. I
mean, it's kind of a brute force a metaphor analogy, but it's kind
of one got up, the other guy down to it. It's just kind
of rotating in the middle. So if copper to turn again and gold to
go, that silver will break out too. Interesting that copper is staying above
four bucks though, you know, just putting Yeah, boy, what a
dog it has just been. And again for silver investors this will sound familiar.
Go back to twenty eleven. Remember silver was soaring and then it got
crushed on that May Day massacre of May twenty eleven, and then to see
it, then the SeeMe raised margins five times in nine days, and so
everybody that bought in the forties, all of a sudden they were underwater and
they got margin calls and they all dumped and price fell into the low thirties.
Well, the same They did the same thing to freaking copper in May.
They raised margins four times in seven days. And so everybody that thought,
you know, there's a short squeeze, there's you know, dwindling global
stockpiles and all this kind of stuff. Everybody that got in from four fifty
and four seventy and four ninety, all of a sudden they raised margins and
then price collapses and they can all get flushed back out. It's just the
same crap. And they do it every time, Right, is there gonna
be a time way margins? And it doesn't respond. Remember the tamp tamp
tamp from the silver squeeze. You know, it's like, whose side are
you on? Well, we're on We're on the side of the bullioned banks
and the precious metals and traffic Eura and the other uh, you know,
the big copper dealers in the copper market. We can't have them getting squeezed.
Remember there were back in middle of May, there was all these like
Bloomberg stories about how their records show they were going to float in some copper
concentrate, you know, on tankers to try to There were those stories.
So instead they smashed the futures price and all the same, Oh witnesson,
we get don't to worry about that kind of stuff. Problem solved, problem
solved. Yeah, crazy crazy. So so you think this little lull that's
coming up is a good buying opportunity, Craig uh, Yes, Like I
said, from a seasonality standpoint, right, really late July through August in
about the first half of September is almost as strong as late December and January.
So I think that doesn't mean it goes up every August. Chances are
August and then you look at, you know, kind of the economic fundamental
picture of a slowing economy. All of a sudden, you know, everybody's
thinking at least two rate cuts. We're going to get the FOMC meeting next
week that maybe Powell's going to be hinting at what's to come, right,
and then by later next week we get the next jobs report, you know,
and all of a sudden, oh, that jobs report from July gets
you know, revised down like almost every other job report. We're there,
right, so the fundamental picture starts to kind of flip in our favor,
I think in August as well. But in the meantime, first again,
two steps forward to one step back. Let me like a stat on you,
Kerry and I don't numbers. If I could flash us on the screen,
if easier for people to, I want people to kind of steep,
they can bump this we get with all commodities. The CFTC, the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission, puts out a report every Friday called the Commitment of Traders.
And it's not just gold and silver, I mean, it's everything.
What makes hold and silver unique is there's always these banks that are always short.
They're never long, always short. Sometimes they are long ass and P
futures and bond futures and for X futures and oops, hit my microphone,
they hit everything else. Yeah, they're so anyway, so we can track
if you follow these things historically, which I do. I've got a stack
of over ten years worth of these things handwritten on my desk to my right.
That's this big stack of paperback here. Yeah. Then you can look
for historical trends, okay, and then you can go back and look at
price and go, well, what happened the last time? The structure within
this report was like this. Okay with me so far? Yeah, I'm
following last Tuesday when gold was right on the verge of breaking out and we're
all excited. I was excited. Heck, I bought a call on Komik
silver that day, That's how excited I was. There was a commitment of
trader survey at the close when all these positions get reported. Now the CFTC,
of course, they don't release that information the next day, don't.
Oh, of course not three days later and after the close on Friday,
seventy four hours later they gave you this information. Had we had this information
on Wednesday, it might have impacted how people were trading. So what was
the information on Friday? Let me, ladies on if within these categories you
have large what they call large speculators, which are like hedge funds, family
offices and the length. And then there are commercials which are like uh mine
mining companies that still hedge or these bullion banks. Okay, here we go.
As of last Tuesday, we got all these positions. The last time
the large speculator category was net long, they got they got their gross long
and grow short the net number. The last time that net long number of
contracts was this high. Price fell one hundred and thirty four dollars in the
next week. It's better, well, it gets worse. The last time
the gross long the amount of just straight up contracts that the speculatory category is
long comex gold price fell one hundred and seventeen dollars the next week. The
next five days after that COT survey, the last time the commercials the banks
were net short this many comex contracts as they were last Tuesday. Price fell
one hundred and twenty two dollars the next week. All right, well that
survey was last Tuesday. We've had three market days, and now as we
record this, we on day four before the next survey on Tuesday, golds
down about eighty five dollars. So far. Uh see a pattern here?
Checking it's it sounds like a coincidence to me, and asked to me,
it wouldn't have been handy knowing this history. For like the people on my
site. If I could have gotten on on Wednesday and said, oh crap,
this commitment of trader and known all this information. But I didn't know
this information till Friday at three thirty Eastern. Then I got to go through
all these sheets back here to get all dig all that data out of there.
Uh you need an intern to put all this data on the computer.
Yeah, really good point. I don't see. There are some things that
are sackrisank that I got to have that, But the moral story is getting
all this back to what we've been talking about for people that are still with
us. We are now in a week where this week, in particularly the
economic data is going to be funky. We got the next PCE report coming
on Friday, so we've got to navigate our way through the inflation data.
But on Thursday, the all the options for the August contract and Comax gold
get priced. With all this bullishness, there's a lot more calls there aren't
put so there's reason to kind of rig it down. Then you've got I
mentioned all these speculators, hedge funds and the like that are long COMECX goal,
Well most of them have been long the front month, the August contract
when so they're gonna have to liquid it because they're not standing for delivery,
so they got to sell those. Okay, so that's natural selling pressure.
Now, if you take one hundred August contracts and sell them, but then
immediately turn around by one hundred December contracts long, well the net pressure is
nothing. But when price is going down, maybe wait, carry you going.
You know, I still want to be long gold, but I think
it's going to go down here in the show. So I'm gonna sell my
hundred, but I'm only going to buy back fifty in December. Well that's
fifty contracts in that selling pressure. Get enough of these large back liquidations and
it's just a natural So you've got option expiration coming up, You've got uh
that contract going off the board. That's a lot of just natural selling pressure
that we're gonna have to deal with over the next six or seven trading days.
So I'm just kind of expecting kind of a short turn low by then
and then then we'll see what happens in August. You can see it.
I can see it makes total sense here. And but like you say,
they generally they haven't been able to turn back the seasonality right right, Yeah,
again, it doesn't mean just like we don't go up in every January,
doesn't mean price has to go higher in August. Big glee though.
You know it's like people talk, oh, yeah, the stock market goes
down in October, you know, or selling may and go away, that
kind of stuff for the stock market. It's that's what they're talking about,
is seasonality. So yeahhpically, and then if you combine that with like what
I said, what if the jobs report on the first Friday after we just
get through the FMC is weaker than expected finally, and the unemployment rateticks up
again to four point third above disappointed expert disappointed by latest jobs report? Right,
what if you get that kind of stuff, and then everybody won be
waiting for Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, you know, coming up in
late August, and then he'll be setting the table for rate cuts, you
know, as soon as the September, so that the narrative will could potentially
shift, and that might be enough. I mean, Gould's already been anticipating
all of this since March, but once it finally begins to happen, that
might be enough to kick us out to the upside. Hey, what about
rate cuts here? We've been expecting and expecting. They got to do it
now, right, you would think, I know, I would normally say
absolutely, And the FED Fund's futures and all those projections are now saying for
sure too, maybe three cuts iNFiNiT funds before the end of the year.
Back in the end of last year, it was obvious to me and I
wrote about it in my annual forecast in January when they were saying seven or
eight rake cuts this year, I thought that was there was no way that
was gonna happen, and it you know, and obviously it didn't. Gold
survived that and actually rallied, which is remarkable. I'm little skeptised, getting
to be too many people on that side of the boat again. That's why
I'm a little cautious as we get later into this week, like about this
PCEE inflation data. If it comes in as slightly hotter and expected, everybody's
gonna go, oh, no, well, maybe it's only gonna be one
rate cut this year, and we're playing all those games again. However,
once they get started and it becomes obvious and not only do they have to
cut rates, but we got to get into end time something like yield curve
controlled just simply so that we can fund the ongoing deficits of dead and the
interest on the national debt as that all plays out. I mean, it's
so fundamentally positive for gold and silver. But again maybe the next week or
ten days we're just going to have to battle it a little bit. All
right, all right, definitely interesting times here, Craig. So for this
you take a longer review and you just buy physical then, right, Yeah,
that's I mean, that's where we talk about it my website all the
time. Are there are cas? You know, we talk about the mining
shares because a lot of people own them. I own them too. People
that are are members of my site can see the ones that I own,
if you know, and then they know which ones to stay away from.
But yeah, in the end, it's that physical metal that's your has always
been your kind of lifeboat, you know, through the tempest to get you
into safe harbor eventually. And there's just there's just acting. The math is
the math, man, I mean, thirty five trillion dollar debt now we're
paying over a trillion dollars a year just to service that. We get into
a recession and tax receipts fall while spending increases. We're gonna be consistently running
two trillion or more every year. I mean this, And is not like
people should say, oh that Trump, he's gonna come in and he's he
doesn't have a track record of being a deficit hawk, so I wouldn't necessarily,
you know, look for some big change even if if Trump is elected.
I mean, the math is the math, and this is all why
again. Yeah, the best thing I've always you know, advised people to
do is look at owning physical and you don't take all of your cash out
of the bank and go buy gold and bury in the backyard. You wouldn't
do that with anything but as a hedge against all of this, as an
insurance policy against all this is again that lifeboat in the storm. That's what
the physical medals are for. Yeah, that's it, exactly, the insurance
policy, the ultimate insurance policy. And all right, well, hey,
as always great talking to you, catching up and getting your latest take on
things. Sounds like, sounds like as usually, you got a pretty good
handle on it. And I encourage all of you to go over to Tfmetalsreport
dot com, subscribe and get Craig's latest take on what's unfolding in the markets
here. It's been very annie over the years. I mean I remember like
three years ago talking about this and bum like clockwork Greig. So, hey,
you got a question where Craig or myself shoot me an email. Hey,
l at Carrie Let's dot com. Make sure you subscribe to TF Metals
Report dot com. Get it. You get a free weekly newsletter, and
hey, if you pay a little more than an inflated bust of a latte
per day, you'll get to be you get to be on the forum there,
yep. And a post every morning to kind of summarize the news the
day, and then a podcast every afternoon to summarize the news today. So
we'll keep in front as best we can of what's coming. All right,
cool, all right? Hey, and you find a link to Greig's site
on the show notes this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just click
it, take you right through. While you're there, sign up for your
free newsletter. Greg. Always a pleasure. We'll talk to you again real
soon. I always look forward to it. Kerry, thanks for listening to
Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the
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