1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:05,320 I got a ge I'd much rather own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies 2 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:11,560 it's for or treasury. Yeah darn, but yeah, you know it's interesting, 3 00:00:11,599 --> 00:00:14,199 Carrie. It looked you know, we record that we're recording this on 4 00:00:14,279 --> 00:00:18,000 Monday the twenty second. If you just go back to last Tuesday, the 5 00:00:18,359 --> 00:00:22,960 whatever that is, sixteenth, man, it looked great. We looked like 6 00:00:23,039 --> 00:00:27,679 we were ready to rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look 7 00:00:27,719 --> 00:00:31,000 back and see why we've been under such pressure for the last three or four 8 00:00:31,039 --> 00:00:35,679 days. You were listening to Carrie. Let'sa's financial survival network where you get 9 00:00:35,759 --> 00:00:41,399 valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. 10 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:48,119 You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork 11 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:54,920 dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more 12 00:00:55,000 --> 00:01:03,200 than ever, and welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network. 13 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,040 I'm your host Carry Lutz, and our good friend Craig Hemp keys with 14 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,519 us and you find him at TF Metals Report dot com. Craig, go 15 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,319 the medals are going down right now. And thought we were at the Promised 16 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:21,200 Land but other good news. Bitcoin's going up. How about that? Hey, 17 00:01:21,239 --> 00:01:23,480 you know what, you're got to have some zig and some zag in 18 00:01:23,519 --> 00:01:29,439 your portfolio. A lot of people assume that I must hate bitcoin or something 19 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:33,400 because I've been a gold enthusiast now for fifteen years. But now I owned 20 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,840 both. Why wouldn't you own both? And so, yeah, that's been 21 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,400 nice to see. You know, it looked a little shapyh what a week 22 00:01:40,519 --> 00:01:42,920 or two ago and it got down to what fifty five thousand or so? 23 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,439 Right, fifty four? Yeah, I got a gell. I'd much rather 24 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:53,239 own bitcoin than little eatie bitty expiration companies it's full or treasury. Yeah darn, 25 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:57,760 but yeah, you know it's interesting Carrie. It looked you know, 26 00:01:57,799 --> 00:02:00,560 we record that we're recording this on Monday, the twenties. Second, if 27 00:02:00,599 --> 00:02:05,280 you just go back to last Tuesday, the whatever that is, sixteenth. 28 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,159 Yeah, man, it looked great. We looked like we were ready to 29 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:13,520 rock and roll. In hindsight, now we can look back and see why 30 00:02:13,599 --> 00:02:16,719 we've been under such pressure for the last three or four days. And again, 31 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:21,000 I don't this is not surprising. Both medals are in kind of a 32 00:02:21,039 --> 00:02:25,280 trading range and have been for either sixty or ninety days, depending on which 33 00:02:25,319 --> 00:02:30,439 one you're looking at. I think we're set up though, after we get 34 00:02:30,479 --> 00:02:36,080 through this week and probably next or at least the first part of next week, 35 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:42,000 we're set up for a very strong seasonal time August. Seasonally, if 36 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:46,800 you average out all the August over the last twenty five years, August on 37 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:51,719 average is the second best month of the year after January. So we're probably 38 00:02:52,199 --> 00:02:55,680 just a little bit of a washout, getting some speculative money out of gold 39 00:02:55,719 --> 00:03:00,520 and silver before we get the next leg higher. So we're gonna blow through 40 00:03:00,599 --> 00:03:02,719 twenty five hundred. Obviously, where is it going to stop. We're going 41 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:07,280 to hit three thousand and then a pause. I don't think we'll make it 42 00:03:07,319 --> 00:03:10,159 that far. You know, that's the hard part. Uh. You look 43 00:03:10,199 --> 00:03:14,840 at silver and you can you know, and if you're trying to use a 44 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,039 chart, a price chart to figure out you know, where the next resistance 45 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,080 is, you look at silver and you oh, this is pretty clear. 46 00:03:20,159 --> 00:03:22,840 And we talked about remember we had to get through twenty six, then you 47 00:03:22,879 --> 00:03:23,960 had to get through twenty eight, and then once you got through twenty eight, 48 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:27,560 you're going to go above thirty. And now we can see thirty four 49 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,560 or thirty six, right, because that would those lows back in twenty eleven 50 00:03:30,599 --> 00:03:36,240 and twenty twelve. But gold and gold's never been here before. Yeah, 51 00:03:36,319 --> 00:03:38,360 so how do you try to project? Yeah? So, I mean there 52 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:43,000 are people that do fibonacci, you know, extensions and stuff like that. 53 00:03:43,919 --> 00:03:49,120 Uh, carnal to say, let alone figure out how it works. See 54 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:55,039 right, I Uh, let's just say this, gold well and silver too 55 00:03:55,719 --> 00:04:00,919 will continue to move higher in stages in a bull mark the way they always 56 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:05,120 have as long as the derivatives market is allowed to set the price, and 57 00:04:05,159 --> 00:04:12,000 that's the discovery method that we have, then bull markets are gonna unroll the 58 00:04:12,039 --> 00:04:14,800 way they always have, which is kind of two steps forward, one step 59 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,600 back. You get this big rush of excitement and inspecuative money comes in, 60 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:21,839 and the hedge funds get long and the banks get short, and then you 61 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,399 run out of momentum and you run out of buyers and price tips over and 62 00:04:26,439 --> 00:04:29,959 breaks a moving average, and then the spec money floods out and the banks 63 00:04:29,959 --> 00:04:32,240 cover their shorts, and then you reach the bottom. And then you go 64 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:35,120 back and think of it as like a series of higher highs and higher lows. 65 00:04:35,319 --> 00:04:38,759 Did you see in just about anything. That's why I don't think three 66 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,279 thousands of next target. It's probably more like once you have a clear breakout, 67 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:47,439 there'll be another rush of enthusiasm, probably twenty six fifty ish twenty six 68 00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:53,079 or something like that, and then okay, well twenty five hundred's with any 69 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,639 ear shot right, Oh last week it was within Yeah, we're looking at 70 00:04:57,639 --> 00:05:00,920 it last week at this time, so yeah. Yeah. You know what's 71 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:04,720 nice carry is when you get into lawng trading ranges like this can work both 72 00:05:04,759 --> 00:05:11,160 ways. You know, when you're breaking down and price keeps bouncing off the 73 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,600 support, and then everybody starts watching it and goes, oh, crap, 74 00:05:14,639 --> 00:05:16,040 if we break down through that level of I got to get out and you 75 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,279 got all these cell stops in there. It works the other way though, 76 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:23,040 too, when you break out of a range and gold's now been in this 77 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:28,680 range for really ninety days, been up to twenty four fifty, twenty four, 78 00:05:28,759 --> 00:05:31,560 seventy eighty three times now, the same thing is true everybody, Oh 79 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,720 it's a clear breakout. Okay, now there's and so that the longer you 80 00:05:35,759 --> 00:05:39,720 stay in a range, the more likely that you're going to have, you 81 00:05:39,759 --> 00:05:43,600 know, a pretty good popworn again. Look back at gold on the you 82 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,800 know, for from twenty and twenty, the middle of twenty twenty to the 83 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,480 first part of this year, gold kept banging up against two thousand, right, 84 00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:55,360 and this long drawn out rage, and once it finally blasted through, 85 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,759 you would up one hundred dollars the next week, and then another two hundred 86 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:00,920 dollars in the next five weeks because everybody saw it. And that's what we'll 87 00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:04,120 wait for as we get into August and September and that kind of break out 88 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:10,079 again. So what about silver, you know, that's been the comeback to 89 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:15,839 around the thirtieth range here and even lower. Yeah, it's under Silver is 90 00:06:15,879 --> 00:06:19,120 back to kind of what do you remember, Well, like I just mentioned, 91 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:24,560 gold broke out in March. March the first was a Friday, you 92 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,879 know, it tried to break out December first and then just got the chart 93 00:06:27,959 --> 00:06:30,279 got painted. Remember it's on a Sunday night, December the third. I 94 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,040 was at lambeau Field to watch the chiefs and the packers. That popped like 95 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:38,120 sixty bucks in like fifteen minutes of the session. Then they boom, they 96 00:06:38,199 --> 00:06:42,079 hammered it down one hundred and twenty bucks and now the charts painted. Everybody 97 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,800 hates it, and they bought themselves. They be in the banks that you 98 00:06:45,879 --> 00:06:49,279 know, monopolistically control that market. They bought themselves ninety days to kind of 99 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:53,920 get them their books right. And then on Friday, March the first ninety 100 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:58,360 days later, gold breaks out on the weekly chart, closed like twenty sixty 101 00:06:58,399 --> 00:07:00,639 seven or twenty seventy five, something like that, on a clear breakout, 102 00:07:01,079 --> 00:07:04,959 and then rallied one hundred dollars the next all right, so rallies through March. 103 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,959 There was like, well, why the hell is in silver going anywhere? 104 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:14,279 The same thing like now and again I think this The reason is the 105 00:07:14,319 --> 00:07:17,639 same. It's because silver's kind of caught in the middle. You know. 106 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,240 You and I think of that as a monetary medal and an investment, but 107 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,839 most of the world thinks of it as an industrial metal. So it's this 108 00:07:27,079 --> 00:07:30,199 combination. So think of you've got up on one side of a barbell. 109 00:07:30,279 --> 00:07:35,120 You've got gold as a monetary medal, and you've got copper as an industrial 110 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,959 metal, and silver's kind of in between. And if both gold and copper 111 00:07:39,959 --> 00:07:43,360 are going up, silver's going to go up. But if gold goes up 112 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,120 and copper goes down, silver just kind of stays in between. Does that 113 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:51,240 make sense, Yeah, and that's what's happening. Copper just blew higher in 114 00:07:51,279 --> 00:07:57,040 April and May and dragged silver along with it. Copper got to over eleven 115 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:01,399 thousand a ton in London, it got to five five dollars and seventeen a 116 00:08:01,439 --> 00:08:05,879 pound in New York in the middle of by, and now two months later 117 00:08:05,959 --> 00:08:11,480 it's for to seventeen a pound. That's twenty percent decline. If silver were 118 00:08:11,519 --> 00:08:16,079 to fall twenty percent from its highs, we'd be talking twenty six twenty seven. 119 00:08:16,399 --> 00:08:18,560 So silver again, it's just kind of like I think that. I 120 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:22,639 mean, it's kind of a brute force a metaphor analogy, but it's kind 121 00:08:22,639 --> 00:08:26,079 of one got up, the other guy down to it. It's just kind 122 00:08:26,079 --> 00:08:30,319 of rotating in the middle. So if copper to turn again and gold to 123 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,559 go, that silver will break out too. Interesting that copper is staying above 124 00:08:33,639 --> 00:08:37,960 four bucks though, you know, just putting Yeah, boy, what a 125 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:43,720 dog it has just been. And again for silver investors this will sound familiar. 126 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,120 Go back to twenty eleven. Remember silver was soaring and then it got 127 00:08:48,159 --> 00:08:52,000 crushed on that May Day massacre of May twenty eleven, and then to see 128 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:58,360 it, then the SeeMe raised margins five times in nine days, and so 129 00:08:58,399 --> 00:09:03,679 everybody that bought in the forties, all of a sudden they were underwater and 130 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,159 they got margin calls and they all dumped and price fell into the low thirties. 131 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:11,200 Well, the same They did the same thing to freaking copper in May. 132 00:09:11,519 --> 00:09:15,879 They raised margins four times in seven days. And so everybody that thought, 133 00:09:15,919 --> 00:09:18,879 you know, there's a short squeeze, there's you know, dwindling global 134 00:09:18,879 --> 00:09:22,519 stockpiles and all this kind of stuff. Everybody that got in from four fifty 135 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,600 and four seventy and four ninety, all of a sudden they raised margins and 136 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:30,919 then price collapses and they can all get flushed back out. It's just the 137 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,039 same crap. And they do it every time, Right, is there gonna 138 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:39,440 be a time way margins? And it doesn't respond. Remember the tamp tamp 139 00:09:39,519 --> 00:09:43,159 tamp from the silver squeeze. You know, it's like, whose side are 140 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,080 you on? Well, we're on We're on the side of the bullioned banks 141 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:50,000 and the precious metals and traffic Eura and the other uh, you know, 142 00:09:50,039 --> 00:09:54,320 the big copper dealers in the copper market. We can't have them getting squeezed. 143 00:09:54,759 --> 00:09:56,799 Remember there were back in middle of May, there was all these like 144 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:01,120 Bloomberg stories about how their records show they were going to float in some copper 145 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:05,679 concentrate, you know, on tankers to try to There were those stories. 146 00:10:07,519 --> 00:10:09,960 So instead they smashed the futures price and all the same, Oh witnesson, 147 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:15,600 we get don't to worry about that kind of stuff. Problem solved, problem 148 00:10:15,639 --> 00:10:20,559 solved. Yeah, crazy crazy. So so you think this little lull that's 149 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:26,440 coming up is a good buying opportunity, Craig uh, Yes, Like I 150 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:31,600 said, from a seasonality standpoint, right, really late July through August in 151 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:37,879 about the first half of September is almost as strong as late December and January. 152 00:10:39,519 --> 00:10:43,320 So I think that doesn't mean it goes up every August. Chances are 153 00:10:43,639 --> 00:10:48,679 August and then you look at, you know, kind of the economic fundamental 154 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:52,039 picture of a slowing economy. All of a sudden, you know, everybody's 155 00:10:52,039 --> 00:10:56,120 thinking at least two rate cuts. We're going to get the FOMC meeting next 156 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:01,759 week that maybe Powell's going to be hinting at what's to come, right, 157 00:11:01,879 --> 00:11:05,919 and then by later next week we get the next jobs report, you know, 158 00:11:07,399 --> 00:11:11,000 and all of a sudden, oh, that jobs report from July gets 159 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:15,279 you know, revised down like almost every other job report. We're there, 160 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:20,440 right, so the fundamental picture starts to kind of flip in our favor, 161 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,080 I think in August as well. But in the meantime, first again, 162 00:11:24,159 --> 00:11:26,720 two steps forward to one step back. Let me like a stat on you, 163 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,960 Kerry and I don't numbers. If I could flash us on the screen, 164 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,799 if easier for people to, I want people to kind of steep, 165 00:11:33,879 --> 00:11:39,519 they can bump this we get with all commodities. The CFTC, the Commodity 166 00:11:39,519 --> 00:11:43,360 Futures Trading Commission, puts out a report every Friday called the Commitment of Traders. 167 00:11:43,159 --> 00:11:46,519 And it's not just gold and silver, I mean, it's everything. 168 00:11:46,919 --> 00:11:50,360 What makes hold and silver unique is there's always these banks that are always short. 169 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:52,679 They're never long, always short. Sometimes they are long ass and P 170 00:11:52,799 --> 00:11:56,600 futures and bond futures and for X futures and oops, hit my microphone, 171 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:01,879 they hit everything else. Yeah, they're so anyway, so we can track 172 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:05,840 if you follow these things historically, which I do. I've got a stack 173 00:12:05,919 --> 00:12:09,519 of over ten years worth of these things handwritten on my desk to my right. 174 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:13,600 That's this big stack of paperback here. Yeah. Then you can look 175 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,720 for historical trends, okay, and then you can go back and look at 176 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,480 price and go, well, what happened the last time? The structure within 177 00:12:20,519 --> 00:12:24,799 this report was like this. Okay with me so far? Yeah, I'm 178 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:30,000 following last Tuesday when gold was right on the verge of breaking out and we're 179 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:31,679 all excited. I was excited. Heck, I bought a call on Komik 180 00:12:31,759 --> 00:12:35,519 silver that day, That's how excited I was. There was a commitment of 181 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,879 trader survey at the close when all these positions get reported. Now the CFTC, 182 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,440 of course, they don't release that information the next day, don't. 183 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:50,399 Oh, of course not three days later and after the close on Friday, 184 00:12:50,519 --> 00:12:54,919 seventy four hours later they gave you this information. Had we had this information 185 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,440 on Wednesday, it might have impacted how people were trading. So what was 186 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:03,440 the information on Friday? Let me, ladies on if within these categories you 187 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,519 have large what they call large speculators, which are like hedge funds, family 188 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:11,159 offices and the length. And then there are commercials which are like uh mine 189 00:13:11,279 --> 00:13:16,279 mining companies that still hedge or these bullion banks. Okay, here we go. 190 00:13:16,639 --> 00:13:20,200 As of last Tuesday, we got all these positions. The last time 191 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:26,279 the large speculator category was net long, they got they got their gross long 192 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:31,279 and grow short the net number. The last time that net long number of 193 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,440 contracts was this high. Price fell one hundred and thirty four dollars in the 194 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:37,960 next week. It's better, well, it gets worse. The last time 195 00:13:39,039 --> 00:13:43,360 the gross long the amount of just straight up contracts that the speculatory category is 196 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:50,000 long comex gold price fell one hundred and seventeen dollars the next week. The 197 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:54,080 next five days after that COT survey, the last time the commercials the banks 198 00:13:54,080 --> 00:14:00,159 were net short this many comex contracts as they were last Tuesday. Price fell 199 00:14:00,399 --> 00:14:03,120 one hundred and twenty two dollars the next week. All right, well that 200 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:07,320 survey was last Tuesday. We've had three market days, and now as we 201 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:11,120 record this, we on day four before the next survey on Tuesday, golds 202 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:16,080 down about eighty five dollars. So far. Uh see a pattern here? 203 00:14:16,159 --> 00:14:20,600 Checking it's it sounds like a coincidence to me, and asked to me, 204 00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:24,440 it wouldn't have been handy knowing this history. For like the people on my 205 00:14:24,639 --> 00:14:28,639 site. If I could have gotten on on Wednesday and said, oh crap, 206 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,759 this commitment of trader and known all this information. But I didn't know 207 00:14:33,799 --> 00:14:37,279 this information till Friday at three thirty Eastern. Then I got to go through 208 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,360 all these sheets back here to get all dig all that data out of there. 209 00:14:39,759 --> 00:14:45,360 Uh you need an intern to put all this data on the computer. 210 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:48,960 Yeah, really good point. I don't see. There are some things that 211 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:52,600 are sackrisank that I got to have that, But the moral story is getting 212 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,320 all this back to what we've been talking about for people that are still with 213 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:01,440 us. We are now in a week where this week, in particularly the 214 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,840 economic data is going to be funky. We got the next PCE report coming 215 00:15:05,879 --> 00:15:09,080 on Friday, so we've got to navigate our way through the inflation data. 216 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:15,840 But on Thursday, the all the options for the August contract and Comax gold 217 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,120 get priced. With all this bullishness, there's a lot more calls there aren't 218 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:22,320 put so there's reason to kind of rig it down. Then you've got I 219 00:15:22,399 --> 00:15:26,720 mentioned all these speculators, hedge funds and the like that are long COMECX goal, 220 00:15:28,159 --> 00:15:31,399 Well most of them have been long the front month, the August contract 221 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,679 when so they're gonna have to liquid it because they're not standing for delivery, 222 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,720 so they got to sell those. Okay, so that's natural selling pressure. 223 00:15:39,759 --> 00:15:45,120 Now, if you take one hundred August contracts and sell them, but then 224 00:15:45,159 --> 00:15:50,000 immediately turn around by one hundred December contracts long, well the net pressure is 225 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,919 nothing. But when price is going down, maybe wait, carry you going. 226 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:58,759 You know, I still want to be long gold, but I think 227 00:15:58,799 --> 00:16:00,279 it's going to go down here in the show. So I'm gonna sell my 228 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,720 hundred, but I'm only going to buy back fifty in December. Well that's 229 00:16:04,759 --> 00:16:11,120 fifty contracts in that selling pressure. Get enough of these large back liquidations and 230 00:16:11,159 --> 00:16:15,480 it's just a natural So you've got option expiration coming up, You've got uh 231 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:21,039 that contract going off the board. That's a lot of just natural selling pressure 232 00:16:21,039 --> 00:16:25,600 that we're gonna have to deal with over the next six or seven trading days. 233 00:16:26,279 --> 00:16:30,159 So I'm just kind of expecting kind of a short turn low by then 234 00:16:30,279 --> 00:16:33,799 and then then we'll see what happens in August. You can see it. 235 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,519 I can see it makes total sense here. And but like you say, 236 00:16:37,559 --> 00:16:44,879 they generally they haven't been able to turn back the seasonality right right, Yeah, 237 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,440 again, it doesn't mean just like we don't go up in every January, 238 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:53,240 doesn't mean price has to go higher in August. Big glee though. 239 00:16:53,639 --> 00:16:56,120 You know it's like people talk, oh, yeah, the stock market goes 240 00:16:56,159 --> 00:16:59,639 down in October, you know, or selling may and go away, that 241 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,200 kind of stuff for the stock market. It's that's what they're talking about, 242 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,880 is seasonality. So yeahhpically, and then if you combine that with like what 243 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,640 I said, what if the jobs report on the first Friday after we just 244 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:15,480 get through the FMC is weaker than expected finally, and the unemployment rateticks up 245 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:21,079 again to four point third above disappointed expert disappointed by latest jobs report? Right, 246 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,400 what if you get that kind of stuff, and then everybody won be 247 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,960 waiting for Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, you know, coming up in 248 00:17:27,039 --> 00:17:30,599 late August, and then he'll be setting the table for rate cuts, you 249 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,559 know, as soon as the September, so that the narrative will could potentially 250 00:17:34,599 --> 00:17:38,160 shift, and that might be enough. I mean, Gould's already been anticipating 251 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,279 all of this since March, but once it finally begins to happen, that 252 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:45,000 might be enough to kick us out to the upside. Hey, what about 253 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,400 rate cuts here? We've been expecting and expecting. They got to do it 254 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:55,160 now, right, you would think, I know, I would normally say 255 00:17:55,200 --> 00:18:00,359 absolutely, And the FED Fund's futures and all those projections are now saying for 256 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,119 sure too, maybe three cuts iNFiNiT funds before the end of the year. 257 00:18:06,559 --> 00:18:08,720 Back in the end of last year, it was obvious to me and I 258 00:18:08,759 --> 00:18:14,359 wrote about it in my annual forecast in January when they were saying seven or 259 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,640 eight rake cuts this year, I thought that was there was no way that 260 00:18:17,799 --> 00:18:22,680 was gonna happen, and it you know, and obviously it didn't. Gold 261 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:29,400 survived that and actually rallied, which is remarkable. I'm little skeptised, getting 262 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,240 to be too many people on that side of the boat again. That's why 263 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:36,680 I'm a little cautious as we get later into this week, like about this 264 00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:41,200 PCEE inflation data. If it comes in as slightly hotter and expected, everybody's 265 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:42,640 gonna go, oh, no, well, maybe it's only gonna be one 266 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,759 rate cut this year, and we're playing all those games again. However, 267 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:51,160 once they get started and it becomes obvious and not only do they have to 268 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,640 cut rates, but we got to get into end time something like yield curve 269 00:18:55,720 --> 00:19:00,119 controlled just simply so that we can fund the ongoing deficits of dead and the 270 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:03,319 interest on the national debt as that all plays out. I mean, it's 271 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:07,759 so fundamentally positive for gold and silver. But again maybe the next week or 272 00:19:07,799 --> 00:19:10,559 ten days we're just going to have to battle it a little bit. All 273 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:15,920 right, all right, definitely interesting times here, Craig. So for this 274 00:19:17,079 --> 00:19:19,960 you take a longer review and you just buy physical then, right, Yeah, 275 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,519 that's I mean, that's where we talk about it my website all the 276 00:19:23,599 --> 00:19:26,920 time. Are there are cas? You know, we talk about the mining 277 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,279 shares because a lot of people own them. I own them too. People 278 00:19:30,319 --> 00:19:33,039 that are are members of my site can see the ones that I own, 279 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:38,359 if you know, and then they know which ones to stay away from. 280 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,920 But yeah, in the end, it's that physical metal that's your has always 281 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:48,799 been your kind of lifeboat, you know, through the tempest to get you 282 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:53,319 into safe harbor eventually. And there's just there's just acting. The math is 283 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:59,440 the math, man, I mean, thirty five trillion dollar debt now we're 284 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:04,359 paying over a trillion dollars a year just to service that. We get into 285 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:11,359 a recession and tax receipts fall while spending increases. We're gonna be consistently running 286 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,640 two trillion or more every year. I mean this, And is not like 287 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,960 people should say, oh that Trump, he's gonna come in and he's he 288 00:20:18,039 --> 00:20:22,359 doesn't have a track record of being a deficit hawk, so I wouldn't necessarily, 289 00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:26,839 you know, look for some big change even if if Trump is elected. 290 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,039 I mean, the math is the math, and this is all why 291 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,400 again. Yeah, the best thing I've always you know, advised people to 292 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,400 do is look at owning physical and you don't take all of your cash out 293 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:40,119 of the bank and go buy gold and bury in the backyard. You wouldn't 294 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,200 do that with anything but as a hedge against all of this, as an 295 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:47,480 insurance policy against all this is again that lifeboat in the storm. That's what 296 00:20:47,559 --> 00:20:52,039 the physical medals are for. Yeah, that's it, exactly, the insurance 297 00:20:52,079 --> 00:20:56,920 policy, the ultimate insurance policy. And all right, well, hey, 298 00:20:56,039 --> 00:21:00,400 as always great talking to you, catching up and getting your latest take on 299 00:21:00,519 --> 00:21:04,160 things. Sounds like, sounds like as usually, you got a pretty good 300 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:10,119 handle on it. And I encourage all of you to go over to Tfmetalsreport 301 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:17,720 dot com, subscribe and get Craig's latest take on what's unfolding in the markets 302 00:21:17,759 --> 00:21:22,119 here. It's been very annie over the years. I mean I remember like 303 00:21:22,599 --> 00:21:30,079 three years ago talking about this and bum like clockwork Greig. So, hey, 304 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,000 you got a question where Craig or myself shoot me an email. Hey, 305 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:37,200 l at Carrie Let's dot com. Make sure you subscribe to TF Metals 306 00:21:37,279 --> 00:21:41,079 Report dot com. Get it. You get a free weekly newsletter, and 307 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:47,440 hey, if you pay a little more than an inflated bust of a latte 308 00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:52,680 per day, you'll get to be you get to be on the forum there, 309 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:56,119 yep. And a post every morning to kind of summarize the news the 310 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,680 day, and then a podcast every afternoon to summarize the news today. So 311 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,279 we'll keep in front as best we can of what's coming. All right, 312 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,799 cool, all right? Hey, and you find a link to Greig's site 313 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,759 on the show notes this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Just click 314 00:22:11,799 --> 00:22:14,759 it, take you right through. While you're there, sign up for your 315 00:22:14,759 --> 00:22:18,079 free newsletter. Greg. Always a pleasure. We'll talk to you again real 316 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,079 soon. I always look forward to it. Kerry, thanks for listening to 317 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:26,319 Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network. Your solution to today's trying times. For the 318 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:33,240 latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever