WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:05.839 The o'chill Effect is sponsored by Wallstreet, Window dot com, the listeners like 2 00:00:05.919 --> 00:00:16.160 you Yeah and nowerd and Media. February twenty nine, twenty twenty four, 3 00:00:16.320 --> 00:00:19.280 allegedly, according to that thing we call a calendar. Yeah, that's right, 4 00:00:19.320 --> 00:00:24.679 it's a new year, allegedly anyway, you know how that goes. 5 00:00:24.719 --> 00:00:27.760 They add an extra date to February, and this is it, and it's 6 00:00:27.960 --> 00:00:32.520 Thursday as well. Happy to have Mike Swanson with me here on the ocell 7 00:00:32.600 --> 00:00:36.000 Effect here on a Thor's Day. And what are we going to talk about? 8 00:00:36.039 --> 00:00:41.679 Well, I'm already looked over at an article on Wallstreet window dot com. 9 00:00:41.719 --> 00:00:44.399 Go over, be in the know, go check out Wallstreet, Window 10 00:00:44.399 --> 00:00:48.439 dot com. It's not just about Wall Street, but also Mike Swanson, 11 00:00:48.479 --> 00:00:51.920 the author of The War State, Why the Vietnam War. Not today, 12 00:00:51.920 --> 00:00:55.119 we're not talking about Vietnam, but the War State. We might get to. 13 00:00:55.600 --> 00:00:58.679 That's that red book, by the way, that's in the sidebar Atocelli 14 00:00:58.759 --> 00:01:03.320 dot com. You see Ike on the oncover giving his farewell speech about oh 15 00:01:03.320 --> 00:01:06.760 wait, the military industrial complex. I wonder if that's going to come up 16 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:11.200 in tonight's show anyway. Mike, First off, before we get into what's 17 00:01:11.239 --> 00:01:15.319 on your mind? How are you doing tonight? I'm doing pretty good. 18 00:01:15.319 --> 00:01:19.560 This is gonna be an interesting topic for people. As you mentioned before we 19 00:01:19.599 --> 00:01:26.640 got in the air, people aren't thinking about China that much, not in 20 00:01:26.680 --> 00:01:32.640 this sense of what would happen if there's a conflict with China over Taiwan. 21 00:01:33.640 --> 00:01:38.799 And China's in the news all the time now, I mean today President Biden 22 00:01:40.959 --> 00:01:48.319 made an announcement declaring that Chinese electric vehicles or national security threat. So, 23 00:01:48.439 --> 00:01:52.680 I mean, there's lots of fear about China, and well, some of 24 00:01:52.760 --> 00:01:56.640 it's kind of a good reason, right, because people constantly talk about China. 25 00:01:56.719 --> 00:02:00.920 Why intellectual properties, the fact that technology, logically, there's vulnerabilities here. 26 00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:07.599 The Chinese are extremely advanced in the world. They're clearly an adversarial nation, 27 00:02:07.240 --> 00:02:09.960 et cetera, et cetera. Now, some people very much claim that 28 00:02:10.000 --> 00:02:14.759 Biden is pretty much in China's pocket, and then you see stuff like this 29 00:02:14.879 --> 00:02:20.560 come out where the hyperbole steps up and they talk about the electric vehicles being 30 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:24.520 a big threat, and one wonders if that's just a move that has to 31 00:02:24.520 --> 00:02:30.080 do with business, or is it really a sphere of influence move. Are 32 00:02:30.120 --> 00:02:32.719 we really in the midst of a true cold war with China. And by 33 00:02:32.800 --> 00:02:38.280 the way, people that are talking about the military conflict and the possibility of 34 00:02:38.319 --> 00:02:42.360 it, Yeah, Taiwan's in the background. Taiwan's in the background, but 35 00:02:43.120 --> 00:02:47.599 it's no longer seemingly on the front burner in everybody's mind where it was maybe 36 00:02:47.639 --> 00:02:53.680 this time last year, you know, previous to the situation in Israel from 37 00:02:54.080 --> 00:02:59.080 after October. Right, Well, I mean at the moment everything is in 38 00:02:59.199 --> 00:03:05.719 the new is being overshadowed when it comes to international conflict with about Israel. 39 00:03:05.800 --> 00:03:13.599 And I'm sure you know on college campuses and elsewhere, that's the issue students 40 00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:16.680 are thinking about, and vice versa. On the right, there's an obsession 41 00:03:19.240 --> 00:03:25.080 with some of worshiping the state of Israel. So I so that's what you 42 00:03:25.159 --> 00:03:29.319 know, The Israel is in a lot of people's imagination. Well, it's 43 00:03:29.360 --> 00:03:32.840 weird because when they had that guy who what was his name, the guy 44 00:03:32.840 --> 00:03:36.759 who was in Trump's cabinet and then kind of turned on him, who was 45 00:03:36.800 --> 00:03:39.159 a Fox News guy and all that, you know, his big thing was 46 00:03:39.240 --> 00:03:44.280 China and China, China, China, Right, everybody was worried about it. 47 00:03:44.319 --> 00:03:46.719 The tariff wars, what happened with all that the exchange is the business. 48 00:03:46.759 --> 00:03:52.199 And then, like I said, Taiwan a big issue, but it 49 00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:55.280 went to the back burner because not only Israel, but let's not forget also 50 00:03:55.479 --> 00:04:00.879 for the past two years now the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, and everybody 51 00:04:00.879 --> 00:04:03.919 wants to talk about Putin. So again the Chinese have fallen to the background 52 00:04:03.960 --> 00:04:12.560 in general. But the thing is, a conflict with China would be the 53 00:04:12.599 --> 00:04:19.759 most dangerous scenario that could happen that I can imagine in the next ten years. 54 00:04:20.279 --> 00:04:25.800 And it's one that's possible. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's 55 00:04:25.920 --> 00:04:33.160 possible. In what I came across was a Rand Institute study that kind of 56 00:04:33.199 --> 00:04:39.199 war gained it what would happen? And then another article that I heard about 57 00:04:39.279 --> 00:04:44.800 from the Scott Horton Show. He had a guest that was discussing an article 58 00:04:45.279 --> 00:04:50.199 in a publication by the Atlantic Council about what would happen if Taiwan and they 59 00:04:50.199 --> 00:04:56.800 were advocating a course of action. So in both of these articles are fairly 60 00:04:56.839 --> 00:05:00.639 alarming when you when you read them for different re It is Atlantic. We'll 61 00:05:00.680 --> 00:05:05.959 get into it in a second, but I want to first lay out that 62 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:13.519 two things, there's the United States side and the Chinese side, and I 63 00:05:13.560 --> 00:05:19.920 think I don't I'm going to flat out say that when it comes to what 64 00:05:20.639 --> 00:05:26.560 is going on in China and what the Chinese are thinking, I really don't 65 00:05:26.600 --> 00:05:33.439 know, and I'm not going to pretend to know. And over the past 66 00:05:33.519 --> 00:05:42.120 ten fifteen years, I've heard many people make these statements about China that are 67 00:05:42.199 --> 00:05:45.519 kind of predictive. China's going to collapse, China's going to do this and 68 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:51.959 then do that. And I don't think people really have any clue of you 69 00:05:53.000 --> 00:05:56.279 know, they're just saying things they don't really have any real information. Well, 70 00:05:56.800 --> 00:06:00.480 let's talk about that really quickly, because let's be honest for a minute. 71 00:06:00.519 --> 00:06:05.800 It's a lot of speculation because we're not on the same Internet as China 72 00:06:05.839 --> 00:06:11.759 basically, right, We're not getting fed the same information. Clearly, there's 73 00:06:11.800 --> 00:06:15.480 a propaganda war always in play. There's the language barrier, which is a 74 00:06:15.480 --> 00:06:19.519 lot more severe than we have with a lot of other nation states, et 75 00:06:19.600 --> 00:06:24.480 cetera, et cetera. So when people are talking about China, quite honestly, 76 00:06:25.079 --> 00:06:30.160 they're talking about an isolated society that they're not as openly aware of to 77 00:06:30.199 --> 00:06:35.000 begin with, so speculation runs higher to begin with. And you know, 78 00:06:35.199 --> 00:06:40.240 all those articles that you mentioned, by the way, the Rand Corporation study, 79 00:06:40.319 --> 00:06:44.800 the Atlantic Council article, and also an article from Wall Street Window dot 80 00:06:44.839 --> 00:06:46.439 com will all be available in the show notes, and I've also put it 81 00:06:46.680 --> 00:06:50.439 in the live chatroom Atochelli dot com, so you guys can always roll that 82 00:06:50.480 --> 00:06:55.279 back after the show, even if you're hearing this in podcasts. Anyways, 83 00:06:55.720 --> 00:06:59.959 the thing is that the the articles that you're referencing are there in present fear 84 00:07:00.120 --> 00:07:03.120 guys to click on and follow through with. But look, when people do 85 00:07:03.279 --> 00:07:08.839 this analysis about what's going on in China, there's a lot of guesswork involved. 86 00:07:09.439 --> 00:07:14.040 Uh. And then on the surface we have the issues. Right remember 87 00:07:14.040 --> 00:07:17.759 when even Trump took office, there was a big thing about being congratulated by 88 00:07:17.959 --> 00:07:23.519 you know, the wrong guy because they're supposed to be the one China policy 89 00:07:23.639 --> 00:07:27.160 and all of that going on, and you got to watch what you say 90 00:07:27.160 --> 00:07:31.399 and who you say it to, and it's a touchy situation. And also 91 00:07:31.480 --> 00:07:36.759 the since the fall of the Soviet Union, right, what were we always 92 00:07:36.759 --> 00:07:42.560 told this is our big major thread on the planet. Population wise, they 93 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:46.800 outpace us technologically they could be outpacing us. Oh and by the way, 94 00:07:46.839 --> 00:07:49.839 don't forget the balloons. Uh, you know what I mean. It's it's 95 00:07:49.879 --> 00:07:56.240 been a weird trip here where there's a lot of guesswork involved, where people 96 00:07:56.279 --> 00:08:01.480 are looking from the outside in and not really understanding first of all, the 97 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:05.399 internal politics, the way the business runs over there, the relationship with the 98 00:08:05.439 --> 00:08:11.600 government, and also military estimates. I think there's a lot of guesswork involved 99 00:08:11.600 --> 00:08:15.199 here. So what are we talking about at the end of the day, 100 00:08:15.920 --> 00:08:20.240 does anybody outside of China really know what's going on in China? Mine? 101 00:08:22.040 --> 00:08:28.480 Well, I don't think so. And the flip side of that is when 102 00:08:28.800 --> 00:08:35.559 Trump got in office, from what I was reading in the Wall Street Journal 103 00:08:35.720 --> 00:08:43.200 and the New York Times, there were stories where the Chinese people were asking 104 00:08:43.279 --> 00:08:52.320 what's going on here and not really certain themselves what Trump was about because there 105 00:08:52.360 --> 00:08:56.440 was some mixed signals set right when Trump got in office. People in the 106 00:08:56.519 --> 00:09:01.480 United States didn't see it, but I know we may note of it on 107 00:09:01.519 --> 00:09:07.600 your show. I mean, this is right when Trump got in mixed signals 108 00:09:07.679 --> 00:09:11.240 during the Trump administration. You're kidding, Well, people will have no memory 109 00:09:11.240 --> 00:09:16.279 of this. They didn't even see it because these were messages not delivered to 110 00:09:16.279 --> 00:09:22.080 the American people, but on Ivanka Trump's Instagram account, she was dressing up 111 00:09:22.840 --> 00:09:28.600 one of her children in Chinese outfits. And for a few weeks in China, 112 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:35.960 they were playing that on Chinese media and in playing up by Ivanka Trump, 113 00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:39.600 and and I think she was saying something like she's having her child. 114 00:09:39.799 --> 00:09:43.480 I think it was a daughter, but I'm not, you know, uh 115 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:48.759 and bet money on it. But she's made she's making statements to the Chinese 116 00:09:48.840 --> 00:09:52.720 media that she was having her daughter take Mandarin lessons and this kind of stuff. 117 00:09:54.000 --> 00:09:56.000 And he's out. You know, this is a you can go back 118 00:09:56.039 --> 00:10:01.200 on Instagram and look at this stuff. But what was going on is they 119 00:10:01.200 --> 00:10:05.320 were sending signals to each other and it wasn't clear what, you know, 120 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:13.240 what was really going on. And as time went on, though, it 121 00:10:13.320 --> 00:10:18.519 does seem in the Rain report that I cite that we'll talk about in a 122 00:10:18.559 --> 00:10:24.960 minute, says in it that the Chinese have become increasingly suspicious of the United 123 00:10:24.960 --> 00:10:30.720 States, and for good reason, you know, the tariff war that Trump 124 00:10:30.879 --> 00:10:35.159 has launched. And as you mentioned, really Biden has continued and he is 125 00:10:35.200 --> 00:10:41.039 not really deviated at all from the course that Trump took when it comes to 126 00:10:41.159 --> 00:10:48.399 Chinese relations with China. In fact, Biden made some statements himself last year 127 00:10:48.799 --> 00:10:56.120 that he would send American soldiers to defend Taiwan, you know, which goes 128 00:10:56.240 --> 00:11:03.600 against decades of official American policy in regards to whether we would defend Taiwan or 129 00:11:03.639 --> 00:11:11.360 not or recognize it as an independent country independent from China, the so called 130 00:11:11.559 --> 00:11:18.639 to China policy. So and then when Biden made that statement, it was 131 00:11:18.720 --> 00:11:24.559 immediately walked back by figures in his administration that Security advisor, Secretary of State. 132 00:11:24.879 --> 00:11:28.399 You know, this is the same sort of stuff that happened all the 133 00:11:28.480 --> 00:11:33.759 time when Donald Trump was president. So it wasn't you know, in some 134 00:11:33.919 --> 00:11:39.120 regards when it comes to at least this one issue, I would say Biden 135 00:11:39.519 --> 00:11:45.600 has been acting identically to the former president Trump. Oh well, you can't 136 00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:48.519 tell his supporters that though, and you can't tell him that there's a serious 137 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:54.879 mixed message because Ivanka at one point was getting you know, Chinese patents and 138 00:11:54.919 --> 00:11:58.960 things. At another point it looked like, you know, that's right, 139 00:11:58.159 --> 00:12:01.240 Trump was also let's you know, continue to go through the history, Trump 140 00:12:01.320 --> 00:12:07.600 was very much blaming China directly for you know, the the the the COVID 141 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:11.080 situation, right, the China virus, remember, uh So, I mean, 142 00:12:11.080 --> 00:12:16.279 we've had a lot of mixed messages over the past few years. And 143 00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:20.039 still, like you said, this strong rhetoric coming from the Biden administration's weird. 144 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:24.120 Despite the fact that a lot of people had said that Biden was going 145 00:12:24.159 --> 00:12:28.759 to be very well weak on China and and give in to them and everything 146 00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:35.200 else. Doesn't seem that way on the surface, but who knows at this 147 00:12:35.320 --> 00:12:37.919 point. I mean, it's it's a rather confusing landscape. So you know, 148 00:12:39.159 --> 00:12:43.000 for the Chinese government or the people of China to be a little confused, 149 00:12:43.159 --> 00:12:46.919 I don't blame them or to be a little surprised or to feel suspicious 150 00:12:48.879 --> 00:12:54.039 over you know what, what really is the American position here regarding China? 151 00:12:54.080 --> 00:12:56.919 How is it they're actually going to handle us going forward? And everything else? 152 00:12:58.639 --> 00:13:01.960 And meanwhile, the ran Corps bration it's an interesting study as well. 153 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:05.279 So let's let's get into that. What what are we what are we looking 154 00:13:05.320 --> 00:13:09.600 at? You well, to set up what they're saying too. Uh So. 155 00:13:11.919 --> 00:13:15.360 Another reason I'm interested in this issue is because where I live. I 156 00:13:15.399 --> 00:13:22.279 live in Virginia, there's a defense program that started and now live in a 157 00:13:22.320 --> 00:13:30.440 city and the small you know about size where you live, uh say, 158 00:13:30.919 --> 00:13:35.360 an area of one hundred thousand people, including the county, and the Navy 159 00:13:35.639 --> 00:13:41.840 has started a defense program here. I live three miles away from the Norfolk 160 00:13:41.159 --> 00:13:50.320 Hampton Road shipyards and they started a program here to train people to do welding 161 00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:58.080 for shipbuilding and submarine building. Now the Navy has is instituting a new a 162 00:13:58.200 --> 00:14:07.120 program to build and a whole new generation of nuclear and attack submarines. This 163 00:14:07.279 --> 00:14:13.840 is their number one priority is to build you know, this defense program. 164 00:14:13.159 --> 00:14:18.759 Just as bombers when General LEA May was, you know, head of the 165 00:14:18.759 --> 00:14:24.600 Air Force, were the key weapon of the Air Force. These submarines now 166 00:14:24.720 --> 00:14:30.519 are seen as the most important element, the future element of the Navy. 167 00:14:31.039 --> 00:14:33.159 And what's happened about it, We talked about it on the show when they 168 00:14:33.159 --> 00:14:37.240 were first start bringing that program into your area and introducing it. So yeah, 169 00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:43.399 go ahead. What's important though, is that these submarines, each one 170 00:14:43.480 --> 00:14:48.600 takes years to build, and I don't think they've They may have built one 171 00:14:48.960 --> 00:14:56.279 and that's about it so far, like a prototype, and the program to 172 00:14:56.320 --> 00:15:00.320 do it has barely gotten off the ground. So they said where I live, 173 00:15:00.639 --> 00:15:05.519 that they were going to train a thousand people to work on these things 174 00:15:07.759 --> 00:15:13.399 three years ago, and twenty twenty happened, or five years ago they said 175 00:15:13.399 --> 00:15:16.799 this, twenty twenty happened, the program get delayed. Then they said, 176 00:15:16.799 --> 00:15:22.240 we're gonna do it next year. Here we are twenty twenty four and they're 177 00:15:22.279 --> 00:15:24.960 saying we're going to train a thousand people next year. They got they are 178 00:15:24.000 --> 00:15:31.240 training some people, but not a thousand in twelve months. And from what 179 00:15:31.320 --> 00:15:37.399 I understand is the reason the training is delayed is the overall program is delayed 180 00:15:37.720 --> 00:15:45.600 because the supply chain issues and the shipbuilding capacity, not just for submarines but 181 00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:54.080 everything all ships, whether it's merchant vessels or naval ships or whatnot. The 182 00:15:54.240 --> 00:16:02.200 entire shipbuilding capacity to the United States, it was like hollowed out in the 183 00:16:02.320 --> 00:16:07.960 late eighties and nineties as much of the country, you know, de industrialized. 184 00:16:08.639 --> 00:16:17.840 So the way the situation is now, the Chinese are building ships at 185 00:16:17.879 --> 00:16:22.200 a greater rate, their naval capacity at a much greater rate. The United 186 00:16:22.200 --> 00:16:29.679 States is, and the Navy is simply trying to catch up. And if 187 00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:34.639 you think of when our submarines and these things are supposed to come online. 188 00:16:34.919 --> 00:16:41.320 You're talking like ten years from now. So we do have at the moment, 189 00:16:41.840 --> 00:16:48.919 despite the lag in production, we have a at least what they say, 190 00:16:48.840 --> 00:16:52.879 you know, I believe it. We have more ships and better ships 191 00:16:53.279 --> 00:17:00.159 than the Chinese. But they are going to surpass us within ten years, 192 00:17:00.519 --> 00:17:04.240 and we're just gonna be trying to, you know, build better things and 193 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:11.119 catch up. So at some point they will have a naval advantage. Whether 194 00:17:11.200 --> 00:17:17.000 that's just gonna be temporary or not, you know, we'll see. But 195 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:26.039 in Taiwan is obviously closer to China than it is the United States. And 196 00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:32.559 from articles, not these two, but other articles about this topic I've read, 197 00:17:33.960 --> 00:17:41.559 for the United States to defend Taiwan now against a Chinese invasion would require 198 00:17:41.640 --> 00:17:48.079 the help of Australia and Japan. The Japanese would have to have drones and 199 00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:57.480 fighters and and be directly involved. So we don't really have from everything I've 200 00:17:57.960 --> 00:18:07.720 read, we really don't have the capability to stop them with naval forces if 201 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:12.640 there was a war next month now. So the two articles that I want 202 00:18:12.680 --> 00:18:19.079 to talk about, the first from the Atlantic Council, both of them are 203 00:18:19.720 --> 00:18:26.759 posing the question if there was a war. If China invaded Taiwan, how 204 00:18:26.759 --> 00:18:33.839 can the United States stop them? Now? The Atlantic Council is a think 205 00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:38.480 tank defense think tank, and it's made up. It's a bipartisan think tank, 206 00:18:40.240 --> 00:18:45.799 and it has figures on it such as Conna Lisa Rice, James Baker, 207 00:18:45.920 --> 00:18:51.039 Leon Panetta who is a Democrat, Colin Powell Night label was a more 208 00:18:51.079 --> 00:18:56.000 moderate Republican, Admiral Michael Mullen who was head of the Navy, Robert Gates 209 00:18:56.359 --> 00:19:03.079 who is head of the Central Intelligence Agents see General Dunford who was a former 210 00:19:03.960 --> 00:19:11.640 chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, So David Petraeus, who was once 211 00:19:11.759 --> 00:19:18.119 lionized as one of the greatest generals ever by Time magazine, plus head of 212 00:19:18.119 --> 00:19:22.480 the CIA as well. Yeah, yeah, So these are the type of 213 00:19:22.519 --> 00:19:29.319 people that are directors now of the Atlantic Council. So I say that in 214 00:19:29.440 --> 00:19:36.559 order to point out that this isn't just a crackpot article, although it has 215 00:19:36.599 --> 00:19:40.799 a crackpot conclusion to it. Well, these are people, though, that 216 00:19:40.880 --> 00:19:44.480 had a front row seat, right And I'm also reminded by somebody in the 217 00:19:44.680 --> 00:19:48.200 skype. You know about the Whuawei situation, and you know, different tech 218 00:19:48.240 --> 00:19:52.119 issues with China as well as you know, the fentanyl crisis. A lot 219 00:19:52.119 --> 00:19:56.799 of people pointing the finger at China being the manufacturer of either the the the 220 00:19:56.839 --> 00:20:02.720 fentanyl directly or the precursors. And yeah, there's a lot of interplay here, 221 00:20:02.759 --> 00:20:07.960 and China is a major threat technologically, socially, et cetera. And 222 00:20:08.039 --> 00:20:14.359 again was one of the major focuses of you know, again a lot of 223 00:20:14.359 --> 00:20:18.799 the rhetoric that has gone on here. Now what's interesting to me is in 224 00:20:18.880 --> 00:20:22.720 ten years were lagging behind. And yes, we had the everything going on 225 00:20:22.759 --> 00:20:27.680 pause in twenty twenty because of the COVID situation, and that stalled almost any 226 00:20:27.759 --> 00:20:33.680 program of any of any significance. It seems like everything from the JFK releases 227 00:20:33.880 --> 00:20:38.920 to this subprogram, right, anything the government was doing went on pause temporarily 228 00:20:40.839 --> 00:20:45.160 for certain. But you know, all of these things coming together, this 229 00:20:45.240 --> 00:20:49.720 is this is a strange situation. What crackpot conclusion do we have from all 230 00:20:49.759 --> 00:20:56.200 these former secretaries of State and members of the Joint Chiefs CIA heads. I 231 00:20:56.200 --> 00:21:02.119 mean, these are people so their name isn't known this report. Uh so 232 00:21:02.240 --> 00:21:04.519 I'm not going to blame it on them. Uh well, no, but 233 00:21:04.559 --> 00:21:10.640 these are people with significant positions in these organizations. Oh yeah, yeah, 234 00:21:10.720 --> 00:21:14.279 yeah. I mean, I'm just saying they're directors of this Atlantic Institute this 235 00:21:14.480 --> 00:21:21.519 and and you know they're publishing The Atlantic Institute's publishing this thing, and uh, 236 00:21:21.640 --> 00:21:27.599 both of these reports. You know, they're dealing with the obvious problem 237 00:21:27.640 --> 00:21:34.079 here. Both the United States in China have uh nuclear a lot of nuclear 238 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:38.880 weapons and can strike each other, uh and wipe each other out. And 239 00:21:40.160 --> 00:21:45.440 you know, so if you're going to have a war uh with China over 240 00:21:45.519 --> 00:21:52.799 Taiwan, how do you fight it without ending the world so to speak? 241 00:21:53.440 --> 00:21:57.160 How do you keep it a limited war, a limited conflict that doesn't get 242 00:21:57.160 --> 00:22:11.640 out of control? The article from the Atlantic Council just flat out says considered 243 00:22:11.640 --> 00:22:17.759 a deliberate nuclear use of deliberate nuclear use of weapons, not accidental, but 244 00:22:17.920 --> 00:22:22.799 just use them and how can we do that? So what you're telling me 245 00:22:22.920 --> 00:22:29.559 is we're back to the let's see if we can win the nuclear war ideals. 246 00:22:30.039 --> 00:22:33.200 No, no, no, it's it's not it's it doesn't it's not 247 00:22:33.359 --> 00:22:38.319 advocating striking mainly in China are trying to wipe them out in the first strike. 248 00:22:40.319 --> 00:22:47.440 But the official policy, well, I'm not saying it's unofficial. The 249 00:22:47.640 --> 00:22:53.720 policy of just flat out put it this way. The policy of the Joint 250 00:22:53.759 --> 00:22:57.759 Chief of Staff, the Joint Staff, the Planning and the Pentagon is not 251 00:22:59.000 --> 00:23:04.240 to use, not to use nuke your weapons first. That's policy, all 252 00:23:04.319 --> 00:23:18.559 right. This article is advocating to use them first, okay. And it's 253 00:23:18.559 --> 00:23:22.079 what's wild is the way it wants, the way it says to do it. 254 00:23:22.240 --> 00:23:29.440 So it was to do it in a way which will not trigger China 255 00:23:30.599 --> 00:23:37.240 responding by launching a nu kar attack in the United States. It's assuming that 256 00:23:37.839 --> 00:23:45.319 the United States will not be able to stop China from landing a force on 257 00:23:45.400 --> 00:23:51.640 the island of Taiwan. And therefore it had it says what we should do 258 00:23:51.880 --> 00:23:56.599 is just let them land on Taiwan. But I have to laugh because it's 259 00:23:56.759 --> 00:24:00.759 so crazy. Let them land in Taiwan and then launch the nuclear attack on 260 00:24:00.799 --> 00:24:03.880 Taiwan. Yeah, but see that's the craziest thing, because what good does 261 00:24:03.920 --> 00:24:07.240 that do? Number one? Number two, I don't think anybody. I 262 00:24:07.240 --> 00:24:11.240 mean, look, the people that are in our government currently are not going 263 00:24:11.279 --> 00:24:15.119 to take the position, well, we can't do anything about it. If 264 00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:19.960 China decides to take Taiwan by force, that's not going to be the official 265 00:24:21.000 --> 00:24:25.400 government position for people that are currently in office. But realistically, I don't 266 00:24:25.400 --> 00:24:30.839 think I've seen an analyst of any kind outside of our government that's currently employed 267 00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:33.279 by our government who has said anything but we could do you know, could 268 00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:38.279 we do anything about this? Probably not not currently. And as they begin 269 00:24:38.319 --> 00:24:42.160 to offa study is going to argue a little differently when we get to it. 270 00:24:42.200 --> 00:24:52.559 But okay, this article is saying we should launch if China invades Taiwan, 271 00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:56.920 we should use nuclear weapons on the soil of Taiwan against the Chinese forces, 272 00:24:57.640 --> 00:25:03.559 and it bits that, you know, the Taiwan the Taiwanese may not 273 00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:08.440 like us to do that. So therefore we need to talk to them ahead 274 00:25:08.440 --> 00:25:15.160 of time now in playing this out with them. And this is how you 275 00:25:15.200 --> 00:25:22.400 can use nuclear weapons in a limited war scenario. You know, it doesn't 276 00:25:22.400 --> 00:25:26.440 get out of control. That's insane. I mean, what country is going 277 00:25:26.440 --> 00:25:29.400 to get you know, look and Mike, I'm telling you what, We're 278 00:25:29.400 --> 00:25:33.319 gonna knock some nukes on your country over here. You guys are cool with 279 00:25:33.359 --> 00:25:37.240 it if we can just keep it on the shoreline, right What I mean? 280 00:25:37.359 --> 00:25:41.640 You know what what kind of madness is that that makes no sense at 281 00:25:41.680 --> 00:25:45.160 all. Mike, are you sure that this is what they're advocating. I 282 00:25:45.200 --> 00:25:51.319 mean, yeah, people could read it for themselves. It's right in there. 283 00:25:52.039 --> 00:25:56.640 But I mean, realistically, under what scenario in the world would anyone 284 00:25:56.920 --> 00:26:00.839 that is remotely rational say, yeah, it's okay if you guys nucas a 285 00:26:00.839 --> 00:26:03.160 little bit, it'll be all right long as you're helping to keep the Chinese 286 00:26:03.200 --> 00:26:07.119 from getting in here. I don't think anybody would be pleased with that. 287 00:26:07.359 --> 00:26:12.519 I mean, Taiwan's not that large, you know, I mean, it's 288 00:26:12.559 --> 00:26:18.759 not like, Wow, that's just that's insane to me, that that that's 289 00:26:19.079 --> 00:26:23.640 that's just beyond stupid. Okay, we need to talk to them about it 290 00:26:23.720 --> 00:26:30.720 first. I mean, what what is going on with the Atlanta Council anyway? 291 00:26:30.759 --> 00:26:33.319 Well, they're basically, I mean, this is a very long article. 292 00:26:33.319 --> 00:26:37.000 It's twenty pages. Yeah, and they're just going they're going through every 293 00:26:37.160 --> 00:26:44.160 possible scenario of you know, should you nuke the Chinese boats, should you 294 00:26:44.279 --> 00:26:49.480 nuke mainly in China, And it just comes down to the best scenario is 295 00:26:49.559 --> 00:26:56.440 nuke Taiwan? Basically, yeah, best scenario. But I doubt anybody in 296 00:26:56.480 --> 00:27:00.480 Taiwan's gonna agree that that's the best scenario. I mean, would who would 297 00:27:00.640 --> 00:27:07.319 voluntarily say that is just that that's beyond belief to me that that that that's 298 00:27:07.359 --> 00:27:11.000 even remotely some kind of Well, let me give you, let me give 299 00:27:11.039 --> 00:27:18.119 you the following. This course of logic, the the key the recommendations to 300 00:27:18.119 --> 00:27:22.039 make uh sure, okay, go ahead? Uh? Do you want to 301 00:27:22.039 --> 00:27:26.079 prevent the war from even starting right? Uh? First, you know, 302 00:27:26.720 --> 00:27:32.559 so again, we'll work with Taiwan to set up these scenarios so you can 303 00:27:32.559 --> 00:27:37.599 put them in action. Next, move away from the current policy so called 304 00:27:37.640 --> 00:27:42.319 strategic ambiguity, where you know, we're saying we won't sort of hit, 305 00:27:42.440 --> 00:27:47.359 we won't defend Taiwan, then say we will, and then go back and 306 00:27:47.400 --> 00:27:52.319 forth like Biden's statement. Then it's walked back. Move away from that to 307 00:27:52.359 --> 00:27:57.400 a full out pledge to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, much like we 308 00:27:57.480 --> 00:28:03.880 have NATO. You know, make a new uh about a complete defense commitment. 309 00:28:04.839 --> 00:28:10.359 Uh, and you and state that nuclear weapons will be part of that. 310 00:28:10.960 --> 00:28:15.160 And and this is to deter the war from ever happening. But again, 311 00:28:15.319 --> 00:28:21.440 I wonder what business we have to introduce this, And it's just still 312 00:28:21.440 --> 00:28:25.920 it's kind of crazy. But of course doing that, we could could provoke 313 00:28:26.000 --> 00:28:29.759 the war, you know too, I mean if if Biden does, because 314 00:28:29.759 --> 00:28:34.519 you're you're escalating the diplomatic situation, you know, well, that's escalating and 315 00:28:34.519 --> 00:28:37.440 skipping a few steps to be honestly, do you because I mean, we're 316 00:28:37.440 --> 00:28:44.000 at a point where the wrong rhetoric comes out and the Chinese government basically condemns 317 00:28:44.160 --> 00:28:47.680 you know, the idea that you call it something other than a part of 318 00:28:47.759 --> 00:28:51.319 China. Right. Uh, if it's if it's on a map and it's 319 00:28:51.359 --> 00:28:55.960 not properly colored in the right color, they get upset. There's been all 320 00:28:56.039 --> 00:29:00.359 kinds of weird things here. Even when Nikki Haley was in the the you 321 00:29:00.400 --> 00:29:03.119 know, was our ambassador of the UN, right. Uh, there was 322 00:29:03.160 --> 00:29:07.640 all kinds of things here. It's a very touchy subject with the Chinese, 323 00:29:07.640 --> 00:29:12.880 at least publicly. Now, I gotta I mean this, Yeah, these 324 00:29:14.119 --> 00:29:18.400 documents are wild. So let me just read you this sentence. I mean, 325 00:29:18.400 --> 00:29:23.160 this is a recommendation, all right, Okay, The United States should 326 00:29:23.160 --> 00:29:30.720 provide the Taiwanese military the training and equipment to provide conventional support to US nuclear 327 00:29:30.799 --> 00:29:37.880 operations and to operate in the environment likely to prevail after a nuclear detonation. 328 00:29:40.000 --> 00:29:45.200 Okay, so get wow, all right, So get them ready for it, 329 00:29:45.319 --> 00:29:48.559 and then prep them for what we're gonna do after, you know, 330 00:29:48.640 --> 00:29:55.880 the bombs are dropped and you have this problem now on your soil. Okay, 331 00:29:56.799 --> 00:30:00.759 I don't do we do we have the kind of cooperative relationship currently to 332 00:30:00.799 --> 00:30:04.039 do this or would we have to establish it? That's another thing. And 333 00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:07.839 uh still I'm stuck on how crazy this is? Go go ahead? What 334 00:30:08.119 --> 00:30:17.559 else do we have to point to in this? Well that's the main I 335 00:30:17.559 --> 00:30:19.759 mean, this, this is what I've really wanted to point out. I 336 00:30:19.759 --> 00:30:23.279 mean, people can read the whole thing. I would just say, you 337 00:30:23.319 --> 00:30:32.000 know that this is a sign. I would say that this is this is 338 00:30:32.200 --> 00:30:41.079 shows how difficult it is two to figure out what to do. You know, 339 00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:45.759 if this is the best conclusion you can come up with, then it 340 00:30:45.839 --> 00:30:49.680 tells me that it's very difficult. It would be very difficult for the United 341 00:30:49.720 --> 00:30:59.640 States to defend Taiwan without it becoming as dangerous or more dangerous than the cub 342 00:30:59.680 --> 00:31:03.000 missile crisis. You know, well, yeah, more dangerous because now you're 343 00:31:03.039 --> 00:31:07.599 talking about using these things I mean literally in this article to break down. 344 00:31:07.599 --> 00:31:08.799 If you if you look at the table of contents on it, right, 345 00:31:10.559 --> 00:31:14.319 you know, scenarios for deliberate nuclear use, okay, after you give the 346 00:31:14.960 --> 00:31:21.599 strategic context and the introduction, scenarios for Chinese nuclear first use, okay, 347 00:31:21.960 --> 00:31:27.319 scenarios for US limited nuclear first use, scenarios for an extended nuclear exchange. 348 00:31:27.880 --> 00:31:32.960 I mean, you know, a strategic policy and operational considerations to the United 349 00:31:32.960 --> 00:31:38.119 States, right, objectives of US response, including potential nuclear use. It 350 00:31:38.200 --> 00:31:41.480 seems to me like somebody here, you know, my sensing a theme. 351 00:31:42.200 --> 00:31:48.839 Somebody really badly wants to go from the mad policy right, the mutually destroyed 352 00:31:48.000 --> 00:31:52.799 destructive deterrent policy too. Well, let's see if we can use these things 353 00:31:52.839 --> 00:31:57.319 a little bit and you know, cause a post nuclear strategy to emerge. 354 00:32:00.079 --> 00:32:06.400 What in the world is going on with the Atlanta Council, I just I 355 00:32:06.400 --> 00:32:09.960 mean, where does this come from? Wow? And then they have you 356 00:32:09.960 --> 00:32:14.000 know, recommendations and all that at the end, and it's just to me, 357 00:32:14.359 --> 00:32:17.720 it's like all of these different main mainland targets for US nuclear use. 358 00:32:19.359 --> 00:32:27.640 I mean, man, okay, so how does anyone imagine a scenario like 359 00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:30.839 this with anything beginning that's not going to cause escalation. See, that's the 360 00:32:30.880 --> 00:32:36.160 other problem is when you engage in, whether it's conventional warfare or any of 361 00:32:36.160 --> 00:32:40.319 this strategic stuff or use of these different weapons or whatever, escalation is a 362 00:32:40.319 --> 00:32:46.079 almost a certainty, and b is something that must be considered at all times 363 00:32:46.119 --> 00:32:51.599 because the moment you engage in this. This is why it's always dangerous to 364 00:32:51.680 --> 00:32:54.880 even engage in the rhetoric, because the rhetoric can often lead to real world 365 00:32:54.920 --> 00:33:05.400 things getting lit off accidentally. Even this just seems like an unnecessary provocation and 366 00:33:05.559 --> 00:33:10.839 idea about how to deal with something that clearly the US doesn't have the diplomatic 367 00:33:12.160 --> 00:33:17.279 or you know, or other spheres of influence in order to push off of 368 00:33:19.039 --> 00:33:22.000 it. Seems like, you know, we've lost on all these other fronts 369 00:33:22.000 --> 00:33:27.200 here. We're definitely behind them militarily, We're behind the Chinese regarding being able 370 00:33:27.240 --> 00:33:30.359 to deal with this. Let me ask you something, Mike, Why in 371 00:33:30.440 --> 00:33:36.400 the world would Taiwan be this important that we would risk entering a post nuclear 372 00:33:36.559 --> 00:33:42.680 use age right where these things are being used. Why would we even risk 373 00:33:42.799 --> 00:33:49.200 changing the world condition here? Because it's not thought of commonly that it's something 374 00:33:49.200 --> 00:33:52.440 that would be even considered. You know, remember when people are talking about 375 00:33:52.480 --> 00:33:57.240 Russia and what's going on there and the use of battlefield nukes. Everybody goes, 376 00:33:57.240 --> 00:33:59.359 WHOA, we don't want to get that started, because that can lead 377 00:33:59.359 --> 00:34:02.640 to other things. Even if you have these small strategic things that are being 378 00:34:02.720 --> 00:34:07.639 utilized right, you don't know how it could grow out of control really fast 379 00:34:07.719 --> 00:34:13.760 in real time. And meanwhile, the Atlantic Council is basically proposing the idea 380 00:34:13.800 --> 00:34:15.639 that well, let's let's talk about what happens if we do start using this. 381 00:34:16.280 --> 00:34:22.639 I mean, does this represent a I don't know, a new kind 382 00:34:22.679 --> 00:34:25.719 of philosophy that's emerging from these things tanks? Now? I mean, does 383 00:34:25.760 --> 00:34:30.599 this represent something larger? Or is this? I mean, because this is 384 00:34:30.639 --> 00:34:35.880 just crazy to me. I can't see how this would be even remotely palatable 385 00:34:35.920 --> 00:34:38.360 to anybody to consider this. It seems like this is exactly the kind of 386 00:34:38.400 --> 00:34:44.039 stuff you need to avoid unless you know, look, if you want to 387 00:34:44.079 --> 00:34:47.159 try and do damage control because it's a certainty that you're going to engage in 388 00:34:47.199 --> 00:34:51.360 this, that seems to be one thing. But I mean, this is 389 00:34:51.480 --> 00:34:55.440 just the craziest position I've ever heard of. Mike, what are your thoughts 390 00:34:55.440 --> 00:35:04.440 on this? Well? This are I mean, the arguments they make in 391 00:35:04.480 --> 00:35:09.480 this article at the beginning is before getting this nuclear war stuff, their nuclear 392 00:35:09.480 --> 00:35:15.679 weapons stuff is why why is Taiwan so important? So in their argument, 393 00:35:15.960 --> 00:35:20.679 I'm just gonna list what they say to you. I'm not saying I'm just 394 00:35:20.679 --> 00:35:22.480 gonna list it then comment on it. But that's a huge that's a huge 395 00:35:22.480 --> 00:35:25.960 part of the stories. First of all, why in the hell would we 396 00:35:27.079 --> 00:35:30.360 even be considering something like this. It means that there must be something of 397 00:35:30.480 --> 00:35:35.559 great significance well to be considering something that could have such drastic consequences. What 398 00:35:35.679 --> 00:35:38.920 is their reasoning that this is so important? Why is this so important that 399 00:35:39.679 --> 00:35:49.519 basically it's on a page. But basically they're just they're re They're creating a 400 00:35:49.599 --> 00:35:59.159 domino theory argument. They say, if Taiwan, if China gets control of 401 00:35:59.159 --> 00:36:06.280 Taiwan, it would be afford operating base. They could attack Japan, they 402 00:36:06.280 --> 00:36:13.800 could take a couple of disputed islands that they have over Japan. Quote. 403 00:36:13.800 --> 00:36:16.760 A key goal of US foreign and national security politicians and civil War two has 404 00:36:16.800 --> 00:36:22.079 been to prevent any hostile power from dominating key regions of the world. A 405 00:36:22.239 --> 00:36:28.800 Chinese conquest to Taiwan, when we move China closer to dominating the Western Pacific, 406 00:36:30.679 --> 00:36:35.800 a Chinese conquest that Taiwan would call into question the foundations of the rules 407 00:36:35.800 --> 00:36:49.239 based international order. US in action would be seen as a sign of decreased 408 00:36:49.320 --> 00:36:55.280 US will and capability to defend other countries. So the argument here is that 409 00:36:55.360 --> 00:37:00.000 it's the inaction that we wouldn't want to have come out of this, like 410 00:37:00.039 --> 00:37:04.480 in other words, I mean, it's the same crap that they said about 411 00:37:04.519 --> 00:37:07.159 Vietnam. Well, yeah, and Domino theory, for God's sake, Now 412 00:37:07.159 --> 00:37:10.400 we're back to that right where Oh, if that happens, then all these 413 00:37:10.440 --> 00:37:14.920 other places might fall to it as well, and then we'll be faced with 414 00:37:15.000 --> 00:37:21.239 what a larger unified Asian communist threat. Basically that that that's what the big 415 00:37:21.280 --> 00:37:23.320 worry is, and we're gonna go nuclear about it. That that to me 416 00:37:23.480 --> 00:37:32.320 is crazy. And even if China took Taiwan, yeah, they mean they're 417 00:37:32.360 --> 00:37:39.199 gonna They're not gonna invade Japan. And you look, other countries around China, 418 00:37:39.400 --> 00:37:45.679 including Russia you know, historically are not their friends. You know, 419 00:37:45.880 --> 00:37:52.559 a Japan, Vietnam, UH, Korea, India, uh, go on 420 00:37:52.679 --> 00:37:55.559 and on, you know, all their surrounding larger country you know, major 421 00:37:57.280 --> 00:38:00.159 countries are not just gonna like become their puppets or just get invaded or something. 422 00:38:00.280 --> 00:38:05.280 Well, yeah, and there's the quick question too, is worst case 423 00:38:05.320 --> 00:38:10.199 scenario. Let's just say they land with military force starting now and absolutely a 424 00:38:10.320 --> 00:38:15.960 certain complete control over the eye. What really changes in the in the world? 425 00:38:16.159 --> 00:38:21.440 Exactly? Not much. Well, I mean the same thing that changed 426 00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:27.960 when China took control of Hong Kong. What changed? I don't know. 427 00:38:29.000 --> 00:38:34.719 England didn't collapse, right, I mean, you know things will change on 428 00:38:34.760 --> 00:38:38.079 Taiwan. I'm not saying I want it to happen. I'm not advocating for 429 00:38:38.159 --> 00:38:44.159 it or anything of that sort. I just I just read these things and 430 00:38:44.239 --> 00:38:45.280 I'm just like, well, can we do? You know, I throw 431 00:38:45.320 --> 00:38:50.119 up my hands, what can we do? So? What about the theories 432 00:38:50.199 --> 00:38:57.840 of victory? That that's the title of the Brookings Institute study and Brookings you 433 00:38:57.880 --> 00:39:04.960 know, okay, so let me let me load that up. It's well 434 00:39:05.039 --> 00:39:07.840 right, and and and again. Look, I'll look at the RAM study 435 00:39:07.559 --> 00:39:12.280 over here, right, I mean the Rand Study, not Brookings Institute Rand 436 00:39:12.280 --> 00:39:16.639 Study. Yeah, yeah, good. If you don't have it loaded up, 437 00:39:16.639 --> 00:39:19.719 I mean I can read you want me to read from that I got 438 00:39:19.760 --> 00:39:23.679 it. I got it. So the people should know the Rand Institute is 439 00:39:23.719 --> 00:39:31.559 closely connected to to the Pentagon. Okay, It's nonprofit based in California. 440 00:39:32.119 --> 00:39:37.960 Its founder, one of its founders was General Curtis LeMay. Is funded by 441 00:39:37.000 --> 00:39:45.079 the Air Force and companies like Douglas Aircraft. You know, it gets private 442 00:39:45.119 --> 00:39:51.400 donations too. It's not it's a nonprofit, but you know it's it's closely 443 00:39:51.440 --> 00:39:55.000 connected. More I would say it's even more connected. I mean, what 444 00:39:55.039 --> 00:40:00.239 difference does it make? But more more connected, uh, and important than 445 00:40:00.280 --> 00:40:15.199 this Atlantic Council thing. So we don't have access to the obviously we need 446 00:40:15.320 --> 00:40:20.039 and you in any everyone listening, we don't have access to the actual Pentagon 447 00:40:20.199 --> 00:40:25.039 war plans for these different scenarios that are created by the Joint Staff that works 448 00:40:25.119 --> 00:40:31.000 under the Joint chiefs of Staff. However, sometimes these people, these think 449 00:40:31.039 --> 00:40:36.639 tanks do, or at least they are able to talk to the people involved 450 00:40:37.199 --> 00:40:40.840 in this article inside of it. I read the whole thing yesterday. It's 451 00:40:40.880 --> 00:40:45.920 forty three pages. But inside of it it states that the Joint Staff plans 452 00:40:46.239 --> 00:40:52.000 do not involve any first use of nuclear weapons. Okay, thank god, 453 00:40:52.440 --> 00:41:00.000 I just want to state that flat out after this Atlantic Council madness. Look, 454 00:41:00.039 --> 00:41:04.559 you're talking about think tanks versus what our government's actually doing. And one 455 00:41:04.559 --> 00:41:07.800 would think this would have been something more typical of what might have come out 456 00:41:07.960 --> 00:41:12.519 of the think tanks when like guys like John Bolton were involved, because he 457 00:41:12.559 --> 00:41:15.679 was a guy who was very much focused on this. There's that former Trump 458 00:41:15.679 --> 00:41:21.519 administration advisor I was trying to think of earlier, right, John Bolton, 459 00:41:22.079 --> 00:41:25.119 who very much was focused on China and constantly telling us that we're ignoring this, 460 00:41:25.159 --> 00:41:29.599 and this is the this is really the larger question. Forget about all 461 00:41:29.639 --> 00:41:35.119 these other things that are emerging. This is ultimately the existential threat to the 462 00:41:35.239 --> 00:41:39.440 United States, Right is China, China, China, China, you know. 463 00:41:39.559 --> 00:41:43.960 And that's that was. It seems like I thought we were past this. 464 00:41:44.679 --> 00:41:47.599 But the weirdness of you know this, let's see if we can engage 465 00:41:47.599 --> 00:41:52.880 with nuclear use and all these other things. I mean, how far is 466 00:41:52.920 --> 00:41:57.519 too far? And again you make it very clear this has nothing to do 467 00:41:57.599 --> 00:42:00.199 with you know, our government policy at the moment. This is these think 468 00:42:00.280 --> 00:42:06.400 tanks that usually do have some influence though, kicking these ideas around. Well, 469 00:42:07.480 --> 00:42:15.000 this was this report when I read it this the rand study. Yeah, 470 00:42:15.039 --> 00:42:20.159 this one is really you know, the point of bring up the other 471 00:42:20.199 --> 00:42:30.360 one is just to highlight how this issue, you know, is you difficult 472 00:42:30.440 --> 00:42:44.079 to deal with in kind of like I mean, it's a lot of craziness, 473 00:42:44.159 --> 00:42:47.400 you know, I don't know, I mean, what, well, 474 00:42:47.440 --> 00:42:51.039 a lot of hyperbole is going to come out of this, because it makes 475 00:42:51.039 --> 00:42:55.719 people very nervous when you know, an adversarial nation has outpaced us militarily regarding 476 00:42:55.719 --> 00:43:00.199 the population, seemingly out maneuvers to us in a lot of different way. 477 00:43:00.360 --> 00:43:06.199 But clearly we're back to the discussion of you know, is it our responsibility 478 00:43:06.239 --> 00:43:08.320 to defend? Like why is it even our problem? What's going on with 479 00:43:08.360 --> 00:43:13.239 Taiwan? You know, why is that something that we need to be involved 480 00:43:13.239 --> 00:43:19.079 in and even considering such madness like you know, first use of nuclear weapons? 481 00:43:19.159 --> 00:43:21.280 Or gee, how do we respond? How do we deal with the 482 00:43:21.320 --> 00:43:24.320 prolonged nuclear exchange? I'm saying, I'm thinking we don't, you know, 483 00:43:24.760 --> 00:43:28.840 we don't. How about avoid it? How about this is the thing I 484 00:43:28.880 --> 00:43:32.400 thought we were supposed to be avoiding. But anyway, what is what is 485 00:43:32.440 --> 00:43:38.679 the major difference between the rantic good? The point of this this study forty 486 00:43:38.679 --> 00:43:43.960 three pages. It's really advocating a course of action. Okay, Yeah, 487 00:43:44.000 --> 00:43:50.800 I can imagine that this study is being presented to all the Senators and congressmen 488 00:43:51.599 --> 00:43:57.000 and saying this is the plan, this is why we're funding all these programs, 489 00:43:58.000 --> 00:44:00.559 and this is the best course of action we got. Well, here's 490 00:44:00.599 --> 00:44:05.880 the justification for our need for the National Defense Authorization for the next few years, 491 00:44:05.920 --> 00:44:07.760 because we need to catch up to China, et cetera. So this 492 00:44:08.079 --> 00:44:14.199 is kind of ye. So it's not talking about we've got to catch up. 493 00:44:14.559 --> 00:44:22.320 It's posing a plan to win. Okay. The title is US Military 494 00:44:22.480 --> 00:44:29.199 Theories of Victory for War with the People's Republic of China. And what it 495 00:44:29.320 --> 00:44:34.800 does, I mean, it's a long like logic exercise basically, and it 496 00:44:34.880 --> 00:44:38.519 says there's one, two, three, four, five, five ways, 497 00:44:39.559 --> 00:44:45.920 and it's Taiwan is the main you know, arena of conflict, right or 498 00:44:46.239 --> 00:44:51.960 issue. It just assumes it's going to be a Taiwan that a war would 499 00:44:52.000 --> 00:44:57.840 be fought over, and there's five ways to fight a war against China, 500 00:44:58.320 --> 00:45:02.719 and it breaks them down and says what are their limitations? Number one it 501 00:45:02.840 --> 00:45:10.000 labels brute force, and that would be total attack on China to destroy their 502 00:45:10.039 --> 00:45:19.119 capability launch war limitations quote implausible when fighting a nuclear arm great power. All 503 00:45:19.199 --> 00:45:27.480 right, forget that one. Okay. The next idea denial convinced China that 504 00:45:27.559 --> 00:45:38.159 it cannot successfully take Taiwan by destroying the capabilities supporting an amphibious invasion. Limitations 505 00:45:38.159 --> 00:45:45.119 requires sufficient power to blunt an invasion and still creates escalation risks. Okay, 506 00:45:47.280 --> 00:45:52.400 and as a stated, it's dicey whether we would be able to defeat unlikely 507 00:45:52.559 --> 00:45:55.800 that we would be able to defeat them at this moment or next month, 508 00:45:59.559 --> 00:46:05.000 next devaluing which they assert. I mean, I don't really know how you 509 00:46:05.000 --> 00:46:12.119 would actually do this, that you'd make Taiwan h less beneficial by destroying its 510 00:46:12.880 --> 00:46:17.360 infrastructure in semicheductor industry. I don't know. You know, this says limitations 511 00:46:17.360 --> 00:46:22.320 impractical, you know, I guess nuking them or whatever is put that in 512 00:46:22.360 --> 00:46:24.719 there. It's impractical. Yeah, fair enough. I mean, is it 513 00:46:24.800 --> 00:46:31.000 practical to say, turn around and intentionally destroyed the Taiwanese economy completely in order 514 00:46:31.000 --> 00:46:35.079 to make it a less attractive target? I mean, sorry, I think 515 00:46:35.079 --> 00:46:37.400 we're going back into crazy land again here. Yeah, but go ahead, 516 00:46:37.719 --> 00:46:44.920 Yeah, next brinksmanship convinced China that the future costs of fighting for Taiwan may 517 00:46:44.960 --> 00:46:51.400 become intolerable by threatening escalations such as nuclear use, so escalation or threats of 518 00:46:51.519 --> 00:46:59.800 escalation. And if that benksmanship limitation undesirable given China's ability to retaliate in kind, 519 00:47:00.360 --> 00:47:06.639 but and the limited stakes at half the United States, and frankly, 520 00:47:07.960 --> 00:47:13.119 I've always thought this that in the end, if we tried nuclear braakesmanship of 521 00:47:13.199 --> 00:47:17.320 China, we would fold, just as the Soviet Union folded when it came 522 00:47:17.360 --> 00:47:23.920 to the Cuban missile crisis. Because how many Americans, you know, it's 523 00:47:23.920 --> 00:47:28.000 not as important to us well in the world. Now, exactly, how 524 00:47:28.039 --> 00:47:30.320 in the world are you going to justify this? This is what the question 525 00:47:30.480 --> 00:47:35.960 is, right, How could you possibly justify any escalation? What would And 526 00:47:36.079 --> 00:47:38.320 ultimately, I'm sorry, but this is the ultimate question. What does the 527 00:47:38.440 --> 00:47:44.400 United States gain? Let's just say, you know, any any of these 528 00:47:44.440 --> 00:47:51.119 operations are successful, we successfully discourage the Chinese from landing and invasion force, 529 00:47:52.039 --> 00:47:55.599 Taiwanese independence gets asserted. Okay, great, we might have a greatful ally 530 00:47:55.719 --> 00:47:59.719 for a minute, But other than that, what do we get out of 531 00:47:59.760 --> 00:48:01.920 this? Honestly, I mean, what is the ultimate goal, what is 532 00:48:01.960 --> 00:48:07.280 the big gain? That would be gambling all these assets on and taking this 533 00:48:07.960 --> 00:48:14.159 studies asking those questions. It's just doesn't ask those How do we win? 534 00:48:14.280 --> 00:48:17.400 How do we win? Okay? High? So we're just how to the 535 00:48:17.480 --> 00:48:20.440 study, you know, and the other one too, by the way, 536 00:48:20.480 --> 00:48:22.559 is how do we win? Regardless of the condition, how do we win? 537 00:48:22.639 --> 00:48:27.039 How do we win? In the in the final military strategy is what 538 00:48:27.079 --> 00:48:32.360 they call cost and position convinced China the costs are too high by military measures 539 00:48:32.360 --> 00:48:43.679 such as Blockader's tragic air chat attacks against China. Problem retaliate retaliate retaliation risk 540 00:48:43.800 --> 00:48:49.599 is high, yeah, very high, and unlikely to generate pressure quickly enough 541 00:48:49.599 --> 00:48:52.280 to stop it, as we learned in Vietnam. I'm saying that as we 542 00:48:52.360 --> 00:49:00.039 learn in Vietnam. But but in the end, the this study says that 543 00:49:00.519 --> 00:49:06.639 the only two options that have the possibility of working are this last one, 544 00:49:07.079 --> 00:49:13.920 which they which the study then rejects in favor of the denial strategy. In 545 00:49:14.320 --> 00:49:19.599 what the denial strategy involves is, first of all, you want to do 546 00:49:19.679 --> 00:49:24.239 everything you can to keep this a limited war, not going nuclear. So 547 00:49:24.280 --> 00:49:30.760 what you do is you don't attack mainly in China. You don't make this 548 00:49:30.960 --> 00:49:37.920 a war of unlimited objectives, you know, like in World War two unconditional 549 00:49:37.960 --> 00:49:44.840 defeat of the Nazis Japanese. Now what you do is you say we are 550 00:49:45.039 --> 00:49:54.320 going to defend Taiwan from an amphibious invasion, and you keep the focus of 551 00:49:54.480 --> 00:50:05.800 the conflict on stopping the the amphibious invasion seeking the boats or if it's airplanes 552 00:50:05.840 --> 00:50:13.639 lifting people in since paratroopers or whatnot. You only attack the forces involved in 553 00:50:13.639 --> 00:50:22.920 invading Taiwan. And that way you can limit keep the conflict contained. Uh 554 00:50:23.440 --> 00:50:30.280 just to that and uh so that's what the study advocates. And it says 555 00:50:30.639 --> 00:50:39.239 that we could win that conflict, and it's the only possibility of winning is 556 00:50:39.280 --> 00:50:44.679 that is doing it that way. You know, we can't win. No 557 00:50:44.679 --> 00:50:51.480 one can win a nuclear you know, strike both sides striking each other's continents. 558 00:50:51.519 --> 00:50:58.199 So just keep it to a naval battle. Look, somebody in my 559 00:50:58.280 --> 00:51:00.000 chat room points, you know, says that you know we're not using our 560 00:51:00.000 --> 00:51:04.320 common sense here, that you know that there is an importance in Taiwan because 561 00:51:04.360 --> 00:51:08.719 of their their capacity. Let me see, because of the large advanced dedicated 562 00:51:08.760 --> 00:51:15.760 semiconductor boundaries. Okay, yeah, but is that worth this kind of escalation 563 00:51:16.199 --> 00:51:21.039 is my question? I mean, ultimately cost benefit analysis, does it make 564 00:51:21.079 --> 00:51:24.360 sense? Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to uh, you know, 565 00:51:24.920 --> 00:51:30.199 go about this another way so as not to lose access? Or is somebody 566 00:51:30.239 --> 00:51:34.679 thinking that it's too great of a strategic choke point for China, you know, 567 00:51:34.760 --> 00:51:37.519 to be able to deny the West access to something like that. And 568 00:51:37.599 --> 00:51:44.119 if that's the case, that is a huge vulnerability that that that that needs 569 00:51:44.199 --> 00:51:47.599 be dealt with immediately another way, and it's not militarily, you know, 570 00:51:47.719 --> 00:51:52.639 the the superconductor situation or even these issues that came up over chips, right, 571 00:51:52.679 --> 00:51:57.840 remember the Chips Act and all that stuff regarding well how come we're getting 572 00:51:57.840 --> 00:52:01.039 all our chips from China, you know, and this and that. Yeah, 573 00:52:01.159 --> 00:52:05.960 that that's a huge vulnerability. I get it, But I don't see 574 00:52:05.960 --> 00:52:09.760 how that equates, you know, or or that justifies I should say, 575 00:52:10.320 --> 00:52:15.199 uh, the type of briachmanship you're talking about, or the use of weapons 576 00:52:15.079 --> 00:52:21.880 or or this kind of military involvement which lends itself immediately to further escalation. 577 00:52:22.119 --> 00:52:27.519 Well outside of Taiwan. I'm just thinking again, cost benefit analysis, Uh, 578 00:52:27.559 --> 00:52:31.320 you got a major problem here. Uh, it doesn't make sense to 579 00:52:31.360 --> 00:52:36.039 me, none of this does. But but continue, Mike, I'm sorry. 580 00:52:36.039 --> 00:52:37.159 I just I saw that in the chat and want to point it out. 581 00:52:39.639 --> 00:52:44.840 Okay, So I'm trying to find a sentence buried in this whole thing 582 00:52:44.920 --> 00:52:53.000 that it's I'm not gonna be able to find it. Well here it is, 583 00:52:53.079 --> 00:53:00.039 well, ultimately, you know, okay, because it's since like I 584 00:53:00.039 --> 00:53:04.280 said, this is a very you know, forty three pages and all this 585 00:53:04.440 --> 00:53:10.519 logical arguments, and it's all designed to build its advocating for that position right 586 00:53:13.199 --> 00:53:22.760 a naval battle. Now, I want to say I've heard I met once 587 00:53:22.280 --> 00:53:28.480 Colonel Larry Wilkerson, who was calling Palace chief of staff when he worked in 588 00:53:28.480 --> 00:53:31.440 the State Department. It talked for like an hour after he spoke somewhere, 589 00:53:32.159 --> 00:53:42.400 and I've seen him on YouTube a lot in interviews and multiple times again we 590 00:53:42.440 --> 00:53:46.280 don't have access to this information, so but multiple times I've seen him state 591 00:53:47.280 --> 00:53:57.159 that the Pentagon has war gained this scenario and that what ends up happening is 592 00:53:58.280 --> 00:54:06.239 one side ships the naval forces get wiped out, and then it goes nuclear. 593 00:54:07.960 --> 00:54:15.599 So this article doesn't say anything. I mean, he says that, 594 00:54:16.079 --> 00:54:35.119 however, this article has this line in it after pushing this option. Yeah, 595 00:54:35.679 --> 00:54:45.440 it may ultimately be. It's basically says, we only have two things 596 00:54:45.440 --> 00:54:52.800 we can do. We can declare as the other article advocated, actually that 597 00:54:53.920 --> 00:55:00.280 okay, Taiwan is something we're going to go to nuclear war over and just 598 00:55:00.280 --> 00:55:06.960 flat out to Claire like we did with NATO in in Western Europe. Right, 599 00:55:07.679 --> 00:55:15.840 Uh, just flat out to Claire that knowing that it it escalates the 600 00:55:15.840 --> 00:55:22.199 whole situation. That's one one option. The other option is the naval battle, 601 00:55:22.400 --> 00:55:27.000 okay, and we may lose the naval battle. And know this, 602 00:55:27.000 --> 00:55:30.000 this thing, you know, has the title saying this is how we win. 603 00:55:30.159 --> 00:55:35.400 It's a theory of victory, and it's advocating for this naval battle scenario. 604 00:55:35.760 --> 00:55:42.079 But then it has this two sentences and and keep in mind that this 605 00:55:42.239 --> 00:55:47.079 Larry Wilkerson has claimed that when they wore game it it leads to nuclear war, 606 00:55:49.880 --> 00:55:54.239 just the naval battle because one side gets sunk. You know what happens 607 00:55:54.280 --> 00:56:01.119 when the US A thousand American sailors are are killed. What does the president 608 00:56:01.159 --> 00:56:06.880 then do? Does he go nu cure or is he going to resign? 609 00:56:07.199 --> 00:56:10.840 You know what what's he going to do? So in the end, it's 610 00:56:12.599 --> 00:56:20.519 because we don't want to make nuclear commitment and say, this is West Germany. 611 00:56:20.559 --> 00:56:23.480 This is the quote. It may ultimately be in the US interest to 612 00:56:23.559 --> 00:56:30.760 accept a greater risk of a limited defeat over Taiwan, then to cultivate a 613 00:56:30.880 --> 00:56:38.000 much greater risk of nuclear escalation. These are decisions that US political leadership, 614 00:56:38.639 --> 00:56:44.480 not Department of Defense would make. Well, No, the d o D. 615 00:56:44.800 --> 00:56:49.360 The d D has just charged with win win win. You don't go 616 00:56:49.400 --> 00:56:52.079 to the god and say, strategically, we need you to lose, but 617 00:56:52.119 --> 00:56:55.159 don't lose too big. I mean, that makes no sense. So well 618 00:56:55.400 --> 00:57:01.559 I read that. What I see is this is up. This is the 619 00:57:01.559 --> 00:57:06.960 policy right here. All right, We're gonna have this naval battle to defend 620 00:57:06.960 --> 00:57:13.280 Taiwan. We're gonna we have this great military industrial complex for trying to catch 621 00:57:13.360 --> 00:57:20.880 up the ship construction UH to fight this possible battle. And in the end 622 00:57:21.199 --> 00:57:25.960 we may lose that battle and they admit that, and then the President's gonna 623 00:57:25.960 --> 00:57:32.280 have decide if we're gonna have nuclear warnit. Mike, it just seems all 624 00:57:32.360 --> 00:57:36.440 crazy all the way through to me. I don't you know, I don't 625 00:57:36.440 --> 00:57:39.199 get it. It's I don't again, I still stand by I don't see 626 00:57:39.199 --> 00:57:43.679 how this is worth it. Maybe it's just me, I I don't see 627 00:57:43.719 --> 00:57:47.039 the cost benefit analysis here panning out that it would be worth this kind of 628 00:57:47.239 --> 00:57:52.119 escalation, this kind of risk. Uh, you know, in the in 629 00:57:52.159 --> 00:57:58.599 a worldwide sense, it's well to escape this. I mean, maybe you 630 00:57:58.599 --> 00:58:01.920 know, maybe maybe you know, we don't know what the real odds are 631 00:58:02.119 --> 00:58:08.039 that China's even gonna invade Taiwan. Maybe this is just never gonna happen anyway. 632 00:58:08.440 --> 00:58:10.559 Well, there's option three, as we might be, you know, 633 00:58:10.639 --> 00:58:15.679 gaming out discussing something that is never going to happen anyway. But they do 634 00:58:15.800 --> 00:58:22.119 wish to assert, you know, dominance over that particular island. They definitely 635 00:58:22.360 --> 00:58:28.119 assert ownership over it, and do not like it, and and definitely react 636 00:58:28.199 --> 00:58:32.840 really badly when anybody makes a suggestion that Taiwan could be independent, could be 637 00:58:34.360 --> 00:58:39.360 separate from being anything other than another asset under the Chinese government's control. I 638 00:58:39.400 --> 00:58:44.519 mean, it's it's a rough spot, and this all sounds crazy. So 639 00:58:45.039 --> 00:58:46.719 look, Mike, we've been talking for almost an hour, so I mean, 640 00:58:46.760 --> 00:58:51.039 I'd love for you to kind of just tell people what to take away 641 00:58:51.079 --> 00:58:54.000 from this, What is the thing to take away? Please, Gus, 642 00:58:54.360 --> 00:59:01.280 I don't know what the you know, I don't know what the you'd hope 643 00:59:01.320 --> 00:59:08.960 that there's people in the government trying to figure out scenarios to void What are 644 00:59:09.000 --> 00:59:21.559 alternative courses of action that involve diplomacy or you know something, Various pressure points, 645 00:59:21.760 --> 00:59:27.599 various points of influence, various possibilities could be played out here before ever 646 00:59:28.159 --> 00:59:34.000 bothering to introduce a military element directly into the situation. Uh there's tons of 647 00:59:34.039 --> 00:59:38.920 possibilities before this, right to even consider this further on down the line, 648 00:59:38.960 --> 00:59:43.400 the idea of use of it, the idea of let's yeah, sure, 649 00:59:43.440 --> 00:59:45.239 we'll just have a naval conflict. I'm sure it'll just stay on the high 650 00:59:45.239 --> 00:59:52.000 seas. Uh No, this is craziness, Mike. And what do you 651 00:59:52.039 --> 00:59:54.079 think why is it that this is coming out now? Why do you think 652 00:59:54.119 --> 01:00:00.519 this is a point of discussion now as opposed to you know, like I 653 01:00:00.559 --> 01:00:05.239 said, the majority of what the media's treating us to is all sorts of 654 01:00:05.280 --> 01:00:08.440 considerations. Yes, indeed, be ready and be afraid of World War three. 655 01:00:08.599 --> 01:00:14.639 But the scenarios right now and the mainstream media have nothing to do with 656 01:00:14.760 --> 01:00:19.239 China except that they might come in on the side of Russia, they would 657 01:00:19.280 --> 01:00:23.039 be much more closely allied to Russia. Right, the whole brick situation. 658 01:00:24.800 --> 01:00:29.960 All of these things are worthy of consideration. But to me, it's crazy 659 01:00:30.000 --> 01:00:34.920 to consider, you know, that type of escalation or direct conflict what as 660 01:00:34.960 --> 01:00:38.440 a first line of defense as opposed to a last line of defense here to 661 01:00:39.599 --> 01:00:46.119 not allow the you know what, another country to assert its dominance over Taiwan 662 01:00:47.840 --> 01:00:52.920 if you consider that it is separate indeed or not? I mean, really, 663 01:00:52.960 --> 01:00:57.639 Mike, ultimately, what should we take away from all this? Well, 664 01:00:57.880 --> 01:01:01.039 just hope it doesn't happen. Yeah, no, absolutely. Look I 665 01:01:01.199 --> 01:01:07.760 never ever sit here and and wish for prey, for spoil for conflict. 666 01:01:07.199 --> 01:01:12.599 Absolutely not. That's not my style at all. And uh, I know 667 01:01:12.679 --> 01:01:15.239 it's not something anybody should be really wanting to see, But I mean, 668 01:01:15.320 --> 01:01:20.079 ultimately it is it also inevitable? You know? That's the thing I didn't 669 01:01:20.119 --> 01:01:23.000 catch in these articles, by the way, and these studies is if they 670 01:01:23.079 --> 01:01:28.599 felt that, you know, I saw what was it in the uh in 671 01:01:28.639 --> 01:01:32.000 the Atlantic Council one. They seem to give us an idea that, you 672 01:01:32.039 --> 01:01:36.440 know, a conflict is inevitable, right, Uh, we're gonna have to 673 01:01:36.519 --> 01:01:40.320 choose what type of conflict, And they indeed want to advocate the idea that 674 01:01:40.360 --> 01:01:44.159 well, you know, since eventually we're going to get the nuclear weapons anyway, 675 01:01:44.840 --> 01:01:46.639 Uh, there's a way to do that and not lose all the way 676 01:01:46.679 --> 01:01:52.639 at least, which to me is madness. The moment you start considering use 677 01:01:52.679 --> 01:01:57.599 of stuff like that, to me, you definitely lost some serious perspective. 678 01:01:57.639 --> 01:02:04.639 But yeah, the thing about the new nuclear weapons is you have to create 679 01:02:04.719 --> 01:02:09.639 these crazy scenarios to imagine a way to be able to use them. So, 680 01:02:10.480 --> 01:02:16.920 for example, in the Ukraine Russia conflict, there's a Russian think tank 681 01:02:17.880 --> 01:02:25.920 that put out an article last year advocating for the use of a tactical nuclear 682 01:02:25.960 --> 01:02:35.000 weapon against Ukraine. And their argument was that in this article, and you 683 01:02:35.000 --> 01:02:42.119 know that there's gonna be a there's risk of a nuclear a growing risk that 684 01:02:42.320 --> 01:02:49.960 the United States is going to have some sort of war somewhere in the world 685 01:02:50.079 --> 01:02:57.239 of Taiwan and possibly a place with another power and use nuclear weapons. So 686 01:02:57.760 --> 01:03:04.119 if we use a tactical nuclear weapon, now how the Russians in Ukraine, 687 01:03:04.880 --> 01:03:12.559 it would be help us in that war and also remind the world how terrible 688 01:03:12.639 --> 01:03:16.400 these weapons are, so it's less likely they'll be used again. It's less 689 01:03:16.480 --> 01:03:22.199 likely that the United States will get into this war that claim the world's heading 690 01:03:22.280 --> 01:03:27.039 for. I mean, it's just you know, fantastic nonsense. Yeah, 691 01:03:27.079 --> 01:03:29.320 well exactly. And to me, you know, look, I don't think 692 01:03:29.320 --> 01:03:31.239 it's inevitable. I don't think it's necessary. And again I don't think the 693 01:03:31.280 --> 01:03:36.840 cost benefit analysis bears out it as any sort of necessity. So you know, 694 01:03:36.880 --> 01:03:38.679 what is it that we're looking at here? To me, it's all 695 01:03:38.719 --> 01:03:42.320 crazy all the time, Mike, And no matter how you slice it, 696 01:03:42.360 --> 01:03:47.599 I think to spoil for a larger conflict, to spoil for escalation without you 697 01:03:47.599 --> 01:03:53.320 know, an absolute, you know, inevitable requirement for it. If it 698 01:03:53.400 --> 01:03:58.840 was unavoidable completely, then that's one thing. But to actually ask for it 699 01:03:58.960 --> 01:04:02.760 or to initiate it, as you know, some of these think tanks are 700 01:04:02.760 --> 01:04:05.559 talking about. Now, you know, how do we initiate the kind of 701 01:04:05.559 --> 01:04:10.400 war we can win? Is pretty much the overall theme. I don't know 702 01:04:10.400 --> 01:04:13.960 how it is you believe that you can win in a nuclear exchange of any 703 01:04:14.039 --> 01:04:18.480 significance whatsoever, And the moment that that's introduced, that crosses the line that 704 01:04:18.519 --> 01:04:23.480 we have not crossed now, you know, since World War Two, so 705 01:04:24.239 --> 01:04:28.000 you know who wants to be party to that. I don't get it to 706 01:04:28.119 --> 01:04:30.840 me. It just sounds like the bad idea that it'll keep on giving and 707 01:04:30.880 --> 01:04:36.639 getting worse if we go in any of these proposed directions according to the think 708 01:04:36.639 --> 01:04:41.679 tanks. I don't think the think tanks are thinking Mike, basically, but 709 01:04:41.840 --> 01:04:45.159 you out there, you could be thinking be in the no go to Wallstreet, 710 01:04:45.199 --> 01:04:48.000 Window dot com. That is Mike's main hub and all that good stuff. 711 01:04:48.039 --> 01:04:51.039 And again he's the author of a lot of great books. But the 712 01:04:51.039 --> 01:04:55.000 three I would point to, or well, the two I would point to 713 01:04:55.039 --> 01:05:00.480 immediately is why the Vietnam War and the War State, and absolutely I endorse 714 01:05:00.559 --> 01:05:03.320 those. But he's also written about the history of Danville, Virginia, and 715 01:05:03.559 --> 01:05:10.719 he's got books about financial stuff and all that out there. Mike's keen ability 716 01:05:11.119 --> 01:05:15.840 to turn complex issues into something that could be easily understood is really his greatest 717 01:05:15.840 --> 01:05:20.519 skill and strength as an author and as somebody who does this kind of analysis. 718 01:05:20.960 --> 01:05:24.880 What's interesting here, Mike, is that you have something very complex here 719 01:05:25.760 --> 01:05:29.159 that I'm not saying that you failed at all, but it's very difficult to 720 01:05:29.280 --> 01:05:33.159 simplify this kind of crazy that's coming out of Rand Corporation in the Atlanta Council 721 01:05:33.159 --> 01:05:39.480 here. It's difficult to take all those nuances, crush it down and have 722 01:05:39.559 --> 01:05:45.159 it make any sort of sense. These ideas of escalation of nuclear involvement, 723 01:05:45.360 --> 01:05:49.760 of really again crossing a line that has not been crossed in a very long 724 01:05:49.800 --> 01:05:54.880 time on the global stage. So what, you know, what is your 725 01:05:55.000 --> 01:06:00.480 sort of wrap it up or final thoughts on all this? I mean, 726 01:06:00.519 --> 01:06:05.079 it's like doctor Strange glove stuff. It's the Bob. I mean, that's 727 01:06:05.320 --> 01:06:09.800 what it's like, you know, That's that's what the world of these think 728 01:06:09.840 --> 01:06:14.159 tanks is. Man, oh man, gentlemen, no fighting in here. 729 01:06:14.280 --> 01:06:17.199 This is a war room, all right. Well, anyway, again, 730 01:06:17.320 --> 01:06:21.440 thanks Mike Swanson for joining us here tonight on the Ocelli Effect here on a 731 01:06:21.440 --> 01:06:29.119 Thursday, considering China and the crazy ideas that are growing in the think tanks. 732 01:06:29.800 --> 01:06:31.199 I don't know what else that titled this show. Maybe I'll get to 733 01:06:31.239 --> 01:06:35.280 a better one when I write it up. But man, Mike, thanks 734 01:06:35.320 --> 01:06:40.280 for thanks for giving me a little something to worry about, because if people 735 01:06:40.280 --> 01:06:44.440 are thinking this way, I mean, they've lost their minds. I don't 736 01:06:44.480 --> 01:06:47.079 know what else to say. This to me just seems crazy. I don't 737 01:06:47.119 --> 01:06:50.199 care who's at the chairman, I don't care who's in charge. I don't 738 01:06:50.199 --> 01:06:54.840 care how intelligent this is supposed to be. This to me seems like just 739 01:06:55.440 --> 01:06:59.480 madness that keeps on giving. But anyway, Wall Street Window dot Com is 740 01:06:59.519 --> 01:07:02.880 Mike say again The War State and Why the Vietnam War, the two books 741 01:07:02.920 --> 01:07:08.519 I highly recommend Mike Swanson on the o'elli effect and Uh, We're all done 742 01:07:08.559 --> 01:07:10.960 here. No matter who you are, where you are, when you are, 743 01:07:11.039 --> 01:07:25.320 remember I'm o Chili dot com, wall Stream Window Dott Gold similar the 744 01:07:25.360 --> 01:07:31.960 stock market, wall Stream Window Dott. Perhaps you're invested deeply, Perhaps you're 745 01:07:32.000 --> 01:07:36.920 not in deep enough. Maybe you're thinking about getting started Wall Street windows on 746 01:07:38.119 --> 01:07:42.480 condos on com. Michael Swanson, the brilliant author of the War State, 747 01:07:42.960 --> 01:07:46.440 understood these trends professionally for many years, and now he gives you the benefit 748 01:07:46.480 --> 01:07:55.559 of his knowledge. Wall Street Window Dott. Go there, now go there, 749 01:07:55.719 --> 01:08:00.199 now go there, now go ahead. Fascination, Right, well, 750 01:08:00.239 --> 01:08:03.920 what do you want to know? Dy Baker's wild claim Oswald girlfriend he knew 751 01:08:04.000 --> 01:08:09.239 Ruby and Arry Handswer weapons really I imagine I could claim I have four wheels. 752 01:08:09.239 --> 01:08:12.239 It doesn't make me a wagon. But okay, Oswald was on the 753 01:08:12.280 --> 01:08:15.079 building, and I'm trying to prevent the murder of John Kennedy. Come on 754 01:08:15.199 --> 01:08:18.880 now has a real effort on the day assassination book intolaim. Go to Amazon 755 01:08:19.239 --> 01:08:24.840 dot com, enter Judith Baker in her own words. You'll get the results 756 01:08:24.840 --> 01:08:29.640 for a digital copy of a book where Walt Brown utilizes her own words and 757 01:08:29.720 --> 01:08:33.720 the known evidence in the case to get at well a different perspective. Let's 758 01:08:33.720 --> 01:08:39.199 say you can get Judith Arry Baker in her own words from the author himself, 759 01:08:39.359 --> 01:08:44.960 signed if you request it by contacting doctor Brown at ki as jfk at 760 01:08:45.000 --> 01:08:48.720 aol dot com. It's a fun book and it actually dissects the many, 761 01:08:48.760 --> 01:08:54.479 many fantastic claims. Judith very Baker in her own words. Thank you for 762 01:08:54.520 --> 01:08:58.439 all the great information. Do you like history? Real history that you were 763 01:08:58.520 --> 01:09:03.560 never taught in schools? Why the Vietnam War Nuclear Bombs in nation Building in 764 01:09:03.680 --> 01:09:11.439 Southeast Asia by author Mike Swanson with new documentation never seen before that'll open your 765 01:09:11.439 --> 01:09:15.840 eyes to events that led up to this. Why the Vietnam War Nuclear Bombs 766 01:09:15.920 --> 01:09:23.439 in nation building in Southeast Asia nineteen forty five through nineteen sixty one. Get 767 01:09:23.479 --> 01:09:29.399 your copy today at Amazon dot com. Why the Vietnam War by author Mike 768 01:09:29.439 --> 01:09:34.560 Swanson revelation to conversation. The War State by Michael Swanson explains the great national 769 01:09:34.560 --> 01:09:40.119 transformation that took place and put the Kennedy presidency in the context of the times 770 01:09:40.159 --> 01:09:45.640 and reveals never before published information about the Cuban missile crisis. President Kennedy would 771 01:09:45.680 --> 01:09:48.479 not have been assassinated if he had been president two hundred years ago. His 772 01:09:48.600 --> 01:09:53.600 assassination took place in the context of the Cold War and the rise of the 773 01:09:53.680 --> 01:09:57.960 national security state. Before World War II, the United States was a continental 774 01:09:58.000 --> 01:10:01.640 republic. In the decade that followed, it became an imperial superpower. Generals 775 01:10:01.640 --> 01:10:05.640 such as Curtis LeMay not only wanted to invade Cuba, but knew that there 776 01:10:05.640 --> 01:10:10.680 were short range missiles on the island armed with nuclear warheads that they could not 777 01:10:10.800 --> 01:10:14.760 destroy because they were on mobile launchers. Their invasion could have led to a 778 01:10:14.800 --> 01:10:18.119 Third World War, and they wanted to go to war anyway. The War 779 01:10:18.199 --> 01:10:23.800 State by Michael Swanson reveals why and will show you what President Kennedy was up 780 01:10:23.840 --> 01:10:29.800 against For more information, the Warstate, dot Com, the dot com radio 781 01:10:29.920 --> 01:10:35.680 Net. In Denial The Secret Wars with Air Strikes and Tanks by Larry Hancock. 782 01:10:36.479 --> 01:10:42.399 Secret wars became a staple of US covert operations and are still happening today. 783 01:10:42.680 --> 01:10:46.359 Larry Hancock's book In Denial ripped the cover off many of them, using 784 01:10:46.399 --> 01:10:49.920 new files. It exposes things about the Bay of Pigs that no one has 785 01:10:49.920 --> 01:10:55.199 ever written about before. It shows why it really failed and why the United 786 01:10:55.239 --> 01:10:59.520 States did not earn from it. It also shows why other countries today are 787 01:10:59.560 --> 01:11:03.199 doing secret operations with more success. This is the book that puts what some 788 01:11:03.560 --> 01:11:10.239 want to deny into the light. In Denial, Secret Wars with air Strikes 789 01:11:10.279 --> 01:11:16.079 and Tanks Larryhncock. For more information go to Larry hyphen Handcock dot com. 790 01:11:16.119 --> 01:11:20.560 Pick up your copy of In Denial at Amazon dot com, in digital or 791 01:11:20.600 --> 01:11:57.479 physical, dot Com Radio o Chilly dot Com. Revelation through Conversation, Ready 792 01:12:00.479 --> 01:12:00.479 did he Happen?