WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.280 --> 00:00:03.279 Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about 2 00:00:03.359 --> 00:00:07.839 a way that you can help support the podcast if you're not already to support 3 00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:12.800 the channel is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that 4 00:00:12.880 --> 00:00:16.199 start at just five dollars a month, and when you sign up, you 5 00:00:16.239 --> 00:00:20.920 get access to all of our episodes add free. That's the big bonus for 6 00:00:20.960 --> 00:00:25.280 that. I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers, 7 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:30.039 but this is the biggest and best way that you can support the Teamhouse 8 00:00:30.320 --> 00:00:35.320 channel and podcast if you'd like to, and we really appreciate that, So 9 00:00:35.359 --> 00:00:40.320 go and check us out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone, 10 00:00:40.479 --> 00:00:45.320 welcome to another episode of Aizon. I'm Andy Mulban, I'm Jason Lyons, 11 00:00:45.960 --> 00:00:51.439 Dmitri Co Tacos the no shortage of news as usual. Yeah, it's 12 00:00:51.479 --> 00:00:55.240 pretty it's pretty wild. What do you want to kick off with? I 13 00:00:55.280 --> 00:01:00.159 mean, this horrible news of you know, the fire and some thirty five 14 00:01:00.200 --> 00:01:07.799 to forty deaths in in Rafa and I you know, I for one, 15 00:01:07.079 --> 00:01:14.120 I don't really have anything to pile on with at this point, and honestly, 16 00:01:14.159 --> 00:01:19.719 it's you know, it's just the images are horrible, and I have 17 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:29.280 written about deconfliction procedures, the you know, the issues with deconfliction procedures and 18 00:01:29.319 --> 00:01:34.120 the gods of conflict or lack their off and so you know, I'm not 19 00:01:34.159 --> 00:01:38.719 going to pile in at this point and make assumptions, but just to say, 20 00:01:40.040 --> 00:01:45.239 you know, it's again another very tragic incident. Any anything else on 21 00:01:45.319 --> 00:01:49.400 that that, guys, No, I'm treading. I'm treading carefully because I 22 00:01:49.480 --> 00:01:56.599 know it's you know, the a lot of people are are as when these 23 00:01:56.640 --> 00:02:00.200 things happen on both sides become very emotion Yeah, yeah, I figured, 24 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:02.959 yeah, we definitely have to mention it because it was in the news this 25 00:02:04.040 --> 00:02:07.680 weekend. Uh, front and center. Obviously seems like Israel doesn't, it's 26 00:02:07.800 --> 00:02:15.120 my opinion, doesn't really care about deconfliction whatsoever. Certainly there you know, 27 00:02:15.159 --> 00:02:17.599 it's fair to say, as I've written, their standards and I've been detailed 28 00:02:17.639 --> 00:02:25.520 about this and shown how their standards are a a lot different than ours in 29 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:30.319 the US military, let me put it that way. But but how about 30 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:36.759 how about this? You know, so the and US papers kind of they 31 00:02:36.759 --> 00:02:44.680 didn't gloss over it, but it I'm talking about Israeli Defense Minister You Gallant's 32 00:02:45.960 --> 00:02:52.719 declaration on on Wednesday night, he made a public address accusing the government of 33 00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:55.599 mismanaging the war. Let me say that again, that is the defense minister 34 00:02:57.240 --> 00:03:00.919 accusing the government of which he is part of, miss managing the war. 35 00:03:02.360 --> 00:03:07.199 But specifically, of course, he is targeting Netnahu. And I think that 36 00:03:08.439 --> 00:03:12.879 as I said, this was this, This wasn't kind of front page news 37 00:03:13.039 --> 00:03:16.639 necessarily in US papers, But this is huge in Israel because not simply because 38 00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:23.039 he is the defense minister, but because the belief is that he is not 39 00:03:23.879 --> 00:03:32.360 just representing himself or a political you know, small political group within within the 40 00:03:32.400 --> 00:03:38.080 government, conclude Benny Gance, those you know, the so called centrists, 41 00:03:38.639 --> 00:03:45.919 but indeed that he represents the institution, the the I d F and the 42 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:52.199 Shinbet in particular and ranged on the other side, of course, are you 43 00:03:52.240 --> 00:04:00.599 know the extreme right wing members of who's cabinet, the most notory of which 44 00:04:00.599 --> 00:04:08.520 are Ben Gabeer and Small Dridge. And so this this is you know, 45 00:04:09.039 --> 00:04:14.719 in Israeli eyes, this is the final showdown. And there's no doubt where 46 00:04:15.680 --> 00:04:19.519 you know, the sympathies of I think most Israeli's lion. This Gallant is 47 00:04:21.519 --> 00:04:27.199 he is, He's an iconic figure. Yes, you know, he's by 48 00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:32.480 no means as centrist, but he is certainly a national hero. He was 49 00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:42.079 in as a I mean from the late seventies Israeli Special Operations Forces, specifically 50 00:04:42.160 --> 00:04:46.600 Plotilla of thirteen, which is their equivalent of of the Seals, just fewer 51 00:04:46.680 --> 00:04:50.480 movies and books. But I mean he was you know, he was tier 52 00:04:50.519 --> 00:04:58.639 one of Tier one. I mean, he was involved in these targeted killings 53 00:04:58.759 --> 00:05:04.120 over the seas that Ronan Bergmann has written about in that excellent book Rise and 54 00:05:04.199 --> 00:05:09.920 Kill First. You have. Gallant appears very frequently in that book, is 55 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:16.439 leading these targeted killing teams. So you know, certainly he's he's not by 56 00:05:16.519 --> 00:05:23.959 himself on this. And he and Netnar who have had a long falling out 57 00:05:24.160 --> 00:05:30.199 that precedes even Netner who firing him back in March of twenty twenty three. 58 00:05:30.800 --> 00:05:34.839 And and you'll notice two other things that have happened this week that are not 59 00:05:35.079 --> 00:05:42.000 necessarily been you know that that haven't been connected, at least not in US 60 00:05:42.040 --> 00:05:48.680 media. The same this last week, the IDF made in a now released 61 00:05:51.560 --> 00:06:01.240 documents that showed that that Netnar who they had warned netnar who four times about 62 00:06:01.319 --> 00:06:09.920 Hamas in the period of late twenty twenty two early twenty twenty three. All 63 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:14.439 right, so this is probably not coincidental. That's kind of a bombshell. 64 00:06:14.839 --> 00:06:20.199 And then the IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagary Hagari, you know, 65 00:06:20.240 --> 00:06:27.160 the guy with those massive ears, looks like doctor Spock, not doctor Spock, 66 00:06:27.399 --> 00:06:33.240 mister spot anyway, so he he is. He made a comment today, 67 00:06:34.199 --> 00:06:42.839 I mean not today, on Tuesday that implied that the IDF, the 68 00:06:42.879 --> 00:06:46.920 IDEF was having to take a step back or all the gains made by the 69 00:06:46.959 --> 00:06:55.560 IDF were slipping away because and he worried at such like it would be different 70 00:06:55.600 --> 00:07:00.639 if we had some kind of national goals rategy. You know. That's and 71 00:07:00.680 --> 00:07:04.839 that's the public affairs guy from the IDEA. So you know, none of 72 00:07:04.839 --> 00:07:13.600 this is coincidental. So Gallant came on on Israeli TV and he asked three 73 00:07:13.720 --> 00:07:17.079 questions. And the first I thought this was very well delivered. It wasn't 74 00:07:17.079 --> 00:07:23.160 a rambling, long, rambling speech. But the first question was to net 75 00:07:23.240 --> 00:07:28.399 Nahu, do you want a short war or a long one? And you 76 00:07:28.399 --> 00:07:31.000 know this this question is really at the heart of a glance, demand that 77 00:07:31.519 --> 00:07:38.560 the government discussed, at least discuss and then decide on an alternative to Hamas 78 00:07:38.600 --> 00:07:43.800 and Gaza, which well, it would inevitably hasten the end of major fighting 79 00:07:44.040 --> 00:07:51.160 and give the IDEF some direction. So the second question, he asked Gallant, 80 00:07:53.800 --> 00:07:57.279 Well, it wasn't really a question. He asked Netnahu to declare that 81 00:07:57.360 --> 00:08:05.519 he opposes get this, that he that Netnyahu opposes and Israeli military or civil 82 00:08:05.600 --> 00:08:11.519 governance of post hamask Gaza. In other words, he's insisting that the Prime 83 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:16.759 Minister tell the country and the world that he will not pursue occupying Gaza and 84 00:08:16.920 --> 00:08:26.120 managing civilian issues there the way that you know, a military government government would 85 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:31.439 you know, as has happened in the territories for instance, after after the 86 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:37.000 Sixth Day War with you know, with a lot of a lot of institutional 87 00:08:37.039 --> 00:08:43.720 bad memory for for the Israelis, and he doesn't want to, you know, 88 00:08:43.759 --> 00:08:48.320 and and also of course memories of Lebanon Golan. Doesn't want Israel to 89 00:08:48.440 --> 00:08:54.320 end up in you know, another quagmire like that or or indeed the West 90 00:08:54.360 --> 00:08:58.720 Bank, you know, in which it is in a situation that it rules 91 00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:07.000 over millions of hostel Palestinians, you know, to to to the security forces, 92 00:09:07.159 --> 00:09:11.919 that's a that's a terrible scenario that could possibly even destroy the state, 93 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:18.399 you know, and then near a long term and you know, in orders, 94 00:09:20.080 --> 00:09:26.919 there's no doubt about it that on Netnya who's right and Ben Gavince Moldrich 95 00:09:26.960 --> 00:09:30.440 have been quite open about this. The you know, the right wing want 96 00:09:30.559 --> 00:09:35.559 to resettle Gaza with Israeli settlers, right, Gallant knows this. And then 97 00:09:35.840 --> 00:09:41.679 twenty years ago Gallant was the it was a military advisor to them Prime Minister 98 00:09:41.840 --> 00:09:50.679 Ariel Sharon when Schearan ordered the withdrawal, oversaw the total this Israeli disengagement from 99 00:09:50.679 --> 00:09:58.080 the Gaza Strip to include breaking down and removing the settlements, you know, 100 00:09:58.120 --> 00:10:03.200 I mean the Sharan, I mean the reasons for that of course quite quite 101 00:10:03.200 --> 00:10:07.799 separate. But but so interestingly, you see what I'm saying that that this 102 00:10:07.919 --> 00:10:15.919 is a really fundamental split now. And and that was you know, that 103 00:10:16.000 --> 00:10:22.960 was uh, although he didn't say so explicitly, Glant's not opposed to the 104 00:10:24.000 --> 00:10:26.960 Palestinian authority playing a role in management of the Gaza Strip, which is something 105 00:10:28.000 --> 00:10:33.559 that is enathma to Net me argue in the extreme right wing, and Gallant 106 00:10:33.080 --> 00:10:39.240 thinks that that is because well he knows, he thinks he knows or whatever. 107 00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:45.639 You know. The claim is that the right wing essentially support Harmas because 108 00:10:45.679 --> 00:10:52.279 her Maas is the unacceptable face of Palestinian authority small a right to the Israelis. 109 00:10:52.279 --> 00:10:56.919 So as long as her Maas represents Gaza, then there can be no 110 00:10:56.159 --> 00:11:03.679 talk of a two state solution. They know that and and therefore want helm 111 00:11:03.720 --> 00:11:07.519 As to continue front and center. But they can't say that, you know. 112 00:11:07.600 --> 00:11:16.159 So that's that that's the rift there, right. And then so the 113 00:11:16.200 --> 00:11:18.960 third so that that was the second to make a statement, you know, 114 00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:22.720 there's you know, we absolutely have no intention of military governance of occupation of 115 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:30.360 the Gaza strip Gallant. Gallant, by the way, so it is said, 116 00:11:30.519 --> 00:11:39.279 has been in discussions about and you know, with the with the US 117 00:11:39.320 --> 00:11:48.360 about a solution that involved and interim Palestinian authority backed government backed by Arab states, 118 00:11:48.440 --> 00:11:56.799 notably Jordan's arm and Uh and and u A, possibly Egypt. So 119 00:11:56.879 --> 00:12:03.320 anyway, the third decision though that that he's asking Netnia who is is about 120 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:05.279 the future of the government of the Israeli government, you know, it's basically 121 00:12:05.799 --> 00:12:11.080 which side are you on? That's what he's asking. Are you going to 122 00:12:11.120 --> 00:12:16.080 stand with me and and Benny Gantz and Daddy Eisencott, you know, two 123 00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:22.159 fellow generals who are relatively centrist, although you know, really right right of 124 00:12:22.240 --> 00:12:26.919 center, or are you going to go with the right ministers? Uh? 125 00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:35.120 What's his name? Sounds like Bielsa Beezel Smodrich and uh and item up Ben 126 00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:41.440 Gibeer And that was the you know, that's the subtext. But but the 127 00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:46.919 question is what what is you know, what is the future of the government. 128 00:12:48.440 --> 00:12:54.039 Gallant called for advancing the national interest over all other interests. All right, 129 00:12:54.120 --> 00:13:01.960 that's you know, that's very thinly coded text for yeah, you know, 130 00:13:03.480 --> 00:13:13.919 ditch your political ambitions and stop putting them before national interest. But you 131 00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:16.480 know it's son who has to make a decision. I mean, it's no 132 00:13:16.600 --> 00:13:22.960 way, there's no way that Glance going to make this the public challenge and 133 00:13:24.000 --> 00:13:30.440 then and then just back down. But who knows that a decision to place 134 00:13:30.600 --> 00:13:37.440 governance of Gaza in the hands of the Palestinian authorities will lead to confrontation with 135 00:13:37.600 --> 00:13:43.799 both Smoldridge and Ben Givie and possibly loss of of their support the right wing 136 00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:48.679 support. That's not going to bring the government down immediately, but it's certainly 137 00:13:48.720 --> 00:13:56.200 going to hurt who's chances then, which you know, I mean, it's 138 00:13:56.200 --> 00:14:01.000 surprising me he believes he does have them. It's a political few. So 139 00:14:01.080 --> 00:14:05.879 yeah, sorry, let me ask real quick. It seems and this is 140 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:16.320 just my limited observation that these public back and forth between politicians is normal there 141 00:14:16.480 --> 00:14:22.039 like it is here. But is that normal between a defense minister and the 142 00:14:22.080 --> 00:14:26.480 Prime minister to be so public? No? No, no, that's all. 143 00:14:26.519 --> 00:14:33.360 This is unprecedented. Absolutely. I mean there have been you know, 144 00:14:33.519 --> 00:14:43.759 silky confrontation within the cabinet. Is it is, it is something that is 145 00:14:43.799 --> 00:14:48.519 more public than it is here, and it's almost an expectation at times, 146 00:14:50.279 --> 00:14:54.840 but nothing like this has occurred before. I mean, this is monumental, 147 00:14:58.080 --> 00:15:01.279 not it's not more of the same. And I think think you know, 148 00:15:01.840 --> 00:15:09.120 from anyone's perspective, it's good news. So anyway, any any decision by 149 00:15:09.159 --> 00:15:15.799 net Yahoo to to fully withdraw from Gaza, uh you know, in turn 150 00:15:15.840 --> 00:15:20.799 over governance to someone else, is going to leave the far right minister's parties 151 00:15:20.039 --> 00:15:26.879 in which are represent religious Zionism, and I think the other one is called 152 00:15:28.639 --> 00:15:33.039 you who did you? Who did it? It'll cause those parties to exit 153 00:15:33.080 --> 00:15:37.600 the coalition, and that's what's kind of hanging over his head. And then 154 00:15:37.879 --> 00:15:43.240 so so they can convere and small to bridge, they come tearing out of 155 00:15:43.279 --> 00:15:48.519 the wings, right and they demand that net Yahoo fire Gallant. Right, 156 00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:54.840 you can't make a shut up calling him a trojan horse. All right, 157 00:15:54.200 --> 00:15:58.879 this is you know, this is a guy who is again national hero. 158 00:16:00.039 --> 00:16:06.600 But the thing is, who can't fire Gallant? He's you know, he's 159 00:16:06.919 --> 00:16:11.360 he's not as strong as he was when he's he's fired previous defense ministers and 160 00:16:11.960 --> 00:16:18.679 he's you know, counting Gallant before he's fired three he's but he's he's got 161 00:16:18.720 --> 00:16:25.879 no choice not only to endure this kind of revolt, but to make a 162 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:30.159 decision. You know, I can't. It's going to be really interesting, 163 00:16:30.480 --> 00:16:34.600 really interesting to see what happens because I can't see Netno who making a decision. 164 00:16:34.919 --> 00:16:37.679 I can see him just keeping, you know, trying to edge it 165 00:16:37.720 --> 00:16:41.960 along and edge along. And so that puts the ball back into Gallard's court. 166 00:16:42.039 --> 00:16:45.399 But what's you know what I mean, this isn't even mutiny on the 167 00:16:45.480 --> 00:16:49.120 king. Mutiny I mean, I mean mutiny on what I said, the 168 00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:52.480 king mutinyry, mutiny on the bounty or something. But it's I mean, 169 00:16:52.519 --> 00:16:56.120 it's not like you're taking over a ship, You're how how are they going 170 00:16:56.200 --> 00:17:02.240 to seize power against Netnia as well? That's really what it's going to come 171 00:17:02.279 --> 00:17:07.319 down to, because I think it will come down to that. And and 172 00:17:08.079 --> 00:17:14.759 Innaho is in a corner because you know, other little KUD members not connected 173 00:17:14.759 --> 00:17:18.680 with the Defense establishment have come out of the woodwork and said, hey, 174 00:17:18.759 --> 00:17:22.279 yeah, you know what, Yeah, I warned him about Mars too. 175 00:17:22.359 --> 00:17:27.160 And I've been I've been saying for a long period of time that you know 176 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:34.599 that we needed to come up with a solution or for Gaza anyway, Paul 177 00:17:34.640 --> 00:17:41.400 said, you guys, I'm not laughing about the situation that it's Yeah, 178 00:17:41.839 --> 00:17:45.000 it is going to be interesting to see what happens. I wonder how much 179 00:17:45.079 --> 00:17:52.200 of this is being pushed publicly as well too, too. I mean, 180 00:17:52.240 --> 00:17:56.720 as usual sway, public opinion one side or the other and maybe force one 181 00:17:56.720 --> 00:18:00.799 hand or the other, you know, publicly. Yeah, solutely, Jason, 182 00:18:00.839 --> 00:18:04.680 that is That's what I was kind of hinting at earlier, is a 183 00:18:07.000 --> 00:18:14.599 public opinion manipulation of public opinion via you know, leaked memos or open off 184 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:21.960 but off the record comments by senior government officials or generals are fairly common. 185 00:18:22.839 --> 00:18:26.440 But you know, these things gather momentum, and it really looks as though 186 00:18:27.200 --> 00:18:32.599 that the you know, I don't want to use the analogy of rats leaving 187 00:18:32.599 --> 00:18:36.720 a ship, but you know, it does look as though people are running 188 00:18:36.720 --> 00:18:41.039 for the exits a little bit, distancing themselves from netting Yahoo, gotcha. 189 00:18:41.720 --> 00:18:45.680 And you know, and and there was something else that I wrote it down 190 00:18:45.720 --> 00:18:53.039 here. Gallant came up with some on Wednesday night, okay, the day 191 00:18:53.240 --> 00:18:59.839 after Hamas will only be achieved through the rule of Palestinian elements. That for 192 00:19:00.319 --> 00:19:04.599 an alternative to Harmas. Unfortunately, no such plan has been brought for debate, 193 00:19:04.960 --> 00:19:11.319 and worse yet, no alternative has been presented in its place. Ah. 194 00:19:11.799 --> 00:19:18.000 So you know, I mean, that's that's that's pretty unequivocal. And 195 00:19:18.000 --> 00:19:23.759 and he has said openly that he has no problem that not only no problem, 196 00:19:23.799 --> 00:19:30.160 that he thinks the only alternative to Hamas is a rule of Palestinian elements, 197 00:19:30.160 --> 00:19:36.839 whether that is a Palestinian authority or there has been talk of turning governor 198 00:19:36.880 --> 00:19:45.200 the responsibility of governance over to a coalition of influential Palestinian families who you know, 199 00:19:47.319 --> 00:19:52.680 may have the trust and support of the population, certainly more so than 200 00:19:52.759 --> 00:19:59.079 either the Palestinian authority or Harmas. So you know there are he's he's open 201 00:19:59.119 --> 00:20:03.759 minded enough to look at all these alternatives that involve Palestinians running either of the 202 00:20:03.759 --> 00:20:11.000 internal I mean run running the government. So and that is yeah, that 203 00:20:11.160 --> 00:20:15.720 that is absolutely anathema to two segments of the Israeli population. But what's going 204 00:20:15.799 --> 00:20:22.039 to be interesting to your point, Jason, is how far would the public 205 00:20:22.960 --> 00:20:30.799 manipulation go. Is there going to be a point where just the sheer pressure 206 00:20:30.400 --> 00:20:33.720 you know, not violence but or read of violence, but just kind of 207 00:20:33.759 --> 00:20:41.559 this sheer political social pressure for Natnia who to go, well, you know, 208 00:20:41.640 --> 00:20:45.160 we will force him to do so, to resign. I mean, 209 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:49.680 there's already demonstrations in the streets and now open revolt in this cabinet. What 210 00:20:49.839 --> 00:20:55.319 more do you need other than to be physically forced out of power? And 211 00:20:55.920 --> 00:21:00.680 we all hope that it you know, it doesn't come to that. But 212 00:21:02.359 --> 00:21:11.480 you know, in the meantime, the the campaign continues. It while one 213 00:21:12.160 --> 00:21:17.599 you know, and an entire division is focused now on Rafa and you'll see 214 00:21:18.279 --> 00:21:25.720 that the you know, this time they are ceiling the Philadelphia cradle that cuts 215 00:21:25.759 --> 00:21:32.160 off Gaza from Egypt. Hence that incident the other day, d you you 216 00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:34.799 mentioned when we were chatting about this before and for the benefit of our listeners, 217 00:21:36.000 --> 00:21:42.599 the incident was a shooting incident involving both Israelis and Egyptians, resulting in 218 00:21:42.640 --> 00:21:48.599 the death of an Egyptian soldier. This last week, nothing released publicly. 219 00:21:49.039 --> 00:21:53.559 What what I you know, what I am hearing is that it was a 220 00:21:55.400 --> 00:22:00.880 released a you know this, this is what is coming through the IDEF, 221 00:22:00.920 --> 00:22:06.880 that it was a kind of a cross fire incident. The IDEF thought that 222 00:22:06.920 --> 00:22:11.279 they had received shots, reported they received shots return fire. The Egyptians thought 223 00:22:11.279 --> 00:22:15.079 that they are under fire. You know, you've seen this play out anyway 224 00:22:15.400 --> 00:22:22.960 in our own forces. Unfortunately, so essentially a blue one bloom, but 225 00:22:22.079 --> 00:22:30.079 still, you know, it contributes to considerable tension between the Israelis and the 226 00:22:30.119 --> 00:22:36.480 Egyptians, but they are they are united for the moment on ensuring that that 227 00:22:36.720 --> 00:22:41.960 border is sealed and that no one from Hamas or even the population of Gaza 228 00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:47.119 crosses that border. The Egyptians have so many problems of their own and the 229 00:22:47.279 --> 00:22:56.440 Sinai. But within within Egypt, there are mounting tensions because this the Egypt 230 00:22:56.559 --> 00:23:03.440 is being hammered by problems in the Red Sea. Of all countries, Egypt 231 00:23:03.559 --> 00:23:07.880 is is you know, the country that's suffering worse. So Egypt in turn 232 00:23:08.079 --> 00:23:12.640 has been trying to make has been making some money on the situation in Gaza. 233 00:23:12.720 --> 00:23:22.680 For instance, the price of getting an AID truck from Ararish or Alexandria, 234 00:23:23.519 --> 00:23:26.680 the price that has to be paid to the Egyptian government is something like 235 00:23:26.759 --> 00:23:32.680 five thousand dollars per truck, you know, as opposed to pre war as 236 00:23:32.720 --> 00:23:34.880 one thousand dollars a truck. So there's like a you know, five time 237 00:23:36.039 --> 00:23:42.640 markup on these on these transit fees surge pricing essentially for fucking humanitarian need yep, 238 00:23:42.799 --> 00:23:48.640 same thing for our customs and so you know, but still the Egyptian 239 00:23:48.839 --> 00:23:59.160 economy is suffering, and of course the population is as amped tops as an 240 00:23:59.240 --> 00:24:04.799 error population and indeed some Western populations throughout the world over the situation in Gaza. 241 00:24:06.000 --> 00:24:10.039 So you know, the Egyptian military, of course, it's in military 242 00:24:10.119 --> 00:24:15.160 rule there. They're just holding they're calling the lead on a simmering pot. 243 00:24:15.839 --> 00:24:23.119 The Israelis suspect that the Egyptian army is heavily infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood and 244 00:24:23.599 --> 00:24:30.440 that this occurred under Morsy during the one year Morsey was in power prior to 245 00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:36.799 cisi overthrowing. And Morsey was a Muslim Brotherhood leader who was who was elected 246 00:24:37.160 --> 00:24:41.559 to power in Egypt before being overthrown by a coup. But then in any 247 00:24:41.599 --> 00:24:47.480 case, accorney of the Israelis, he has heavily infiltrated the Egyptian army with 248 00:24:48.920 --> 00:24:51.759 Muslim Brotherhood, which is going to be a problem if that is true for 249 00:24:51.880 --> 00:24:56.359 Cisis more so than the Israelis. I mean, remember of the history of 250 00:24:56.359 --> 00:25:03.599 the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, it's been one of violent revolt or action followed 251 00:25:03.640 --> 00:25:11.319 by incredibly, incredibly brutal repression. It was the Muslim Brotherhood who killed Amasada 252 00:25:11.920 --> 00:25:15.440 in nineteen eighty one during a military review, you know, the reviewing troops. 253 00:25:15.720 --> 00:25:18.039 I don't know if you've seen the video of it, but you know, 254 00:25:18.079 --> 00:25:22.440 they yeah, jump off one of the you know, the vehicle in 255 00:25:22.480 --> 00:25:27.480 the drive past and kill them and yeah, those were and so you know, 256 00:25:27.640 --> 00:25:34.319 so there's there's all kinds of domestic tensions on both sides of the border. 257 00:25:36.240 --> 00:25:41.160 That means, you know, have resulted in this kind of this fragile 258 00:25:41.200 --> 00:25:45.119 agreement between the Israelis and the Egyptians. But certainly no, not a lot 259 00:25:45.119 --> 00:25:52.960 of goodwill. Pause paused there for a moment. D Any any any questions, 260 00:25:52.960 --> 00:26:00.640 guys or Oh yeah, sorry, sorry, go on. I was 261 00:26:00.680 --> 00:26:07.160 gonna talk about the video that was not leaked but posted by Netanyahu's son. 262 00:26:08.079 --> 00:26:14.240 Oh yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, Jayson, Yeah, just outline 263 00:26:14.279 --> 00:26:18.839 that forever. Yeah. So, briefly, speaking of public opinion swaying public 264 00:26:18.880 --> 00:26:25.240 opinion, uh so, on Saturday, the IDF authorities uh stated that they 265 00:26:25.240 --> 00:26:27.960 were going to launch an investor formal investigation into a video that was posted on 266 00:26:29.640 --> 00:26:36.599 to Telegraph by Netahu's son, Yeah, heir. And in the video, 267 00:26:37.160 --> 00:26:45.359 it's shows an alleged IDF soldier and fatigues holding a rifle. He's wearing a 268 00:26:45.359 --> 00:26:48.440 black mask, and he's standing in what appears to be a blown blown out 269 00:26:48.480 --> 00:26:52.079 building, rubble graffiti on the walls behind him, all that, and so 270 00:26:52.279 --> 00:26:59.200 in the video he says we the reserve soldiers do not intend to hand over 271 00:26:59.279 --> 00:27:03.680 the keys to any Palestinian authority, adding that they would not see power in 272 00:27:03.759 --> 00:27:11.079 gods. That's Amas or Fatah, and then he so this is being addressed 273 00:27:11.119 --> 00:27:19.839 to net Yahoo, but that he is specifically talking about Galant and addressing him 274 00:27:21.119 --> 00:27:25.039 Gallant directly. He said, you cannot win a war. Resign, you 275 00:27:25.079 --> 00:27:27.920 cannot win the war. You cannot command us. We will listen to one 276 00:27:29.000 --> 00:27:32.279 leader. And it is not the Minister of Defense, It is not the 277 00:27:32.359 --> 00:27:36.079 chief of staff. It is the Prime Minister. Think carefully to whom you 278 00:27:36.119 --> 00:27:38.720 intend to give the keys after this, And so later in the video he 279 00:27:38.799 --> 00:27:42.799 told Gallant to change your record, change the record and understand that we want 280 00:27:42.799 --> 00:27:47.240 to win, and or we will all go only with the Prime Minister, 281 00:27:47.720 --> 00:27:51.000 only with whoever decides that we should win. We will follow him. Here 282 00:27:51.079 --> 00:27:53.880 I tell you, did you want a military coup? And then he goes 283 00:27:53.920 --> 00:27:57.039 on to say, we're the reservist who can no longer return home. We 284 00:27:57.079 --> 00:28:00.039 will show you what a decision is, we will show you what a victory 285 00:28:00.160 --> 00:28:07.359 is, and we will show you how real Jews win. So you just 286 00:28:07.400 --> 00:28:10.079 go again. You just can't make this up, can you? I mean 287 00:28:11.480 --> 00:28:15.720 you Gallant? And and that may have been what prompted you know, one 288 00:28:15.759 --> 00:28:19.960 of the things that prompted Gallant to to to do what he did, because 289 00:28:21.000 --> 00:28:25.160 this is absolutely absurd. So first of all, yeah yeah, oh yeah, 290 00:28:25.599 --> 00:28:29.839 net and Yahoo. Uh isn't even in Israel. In fact, he's 291 00:28:30.039 --> 00:28:33.680 not far from where I am now. He's in Miami, living in a 292 00:28:33.799 --> 00:28:38.359 luxury condo, where he has been since before the war, and hasn't you 293 00:28:38.359 --> 00:28:44.400 know, does not hasn't voluntive to go back to Israel to do anything else, 294 00:28:44.519 --> 00:28:48.519 you know. And the Israeli papers have written about this, even even 295 00:28:48.599 --> 00:28:52.160 the you know, right wing ones, showing both you know, I mean 296 00:28:52.200 --> 00:28:56.440 the paperst love doing this, you know, photographs of his apartment, the 297 00:28:56.559 --> 00:29:03.000 tennis courts, spa game lounge, private cinema, wind sellar, cigar um, 298 00:29:03.079 --> 00:29:08.440 you know, I mean, anyone who's been to Jack's house will recognize. 299 00:29:10.279 --> 00:29:15.400 But so now he comes, now he emerges right and and this and 300 00:29:15.759 --> 00:29:22.200 produces the video. The IDEF, of course, went ape shit launched an 301 00:29:22.240 --> 00:29:27.720 investigation of its own, citing all the violations of various rules. Jason, 302 00:29:27.759 --> 00:29:30.960 I thought, you know, I said earlier that I'd heard that the guy 303 00:29:32.079 --> 00:29:34.960 in the video wasn't even a reservist, you know, which is almost hard 304 00:29:36.000 --> 00:29:40.359 to imagine. If he isn't you know, in Israel and Israeli. But 305 00:29:40.480 --> 00:29:45.720 I can't find, you know, I don't know now where I got that 306 00:29:45.799 --> 00:29:48.759 information, so it could be it could be bogus. But regardless, it 307 00:29:48.759 --> 00:29:55.079 doesn't really matter whether he's a reservist or not. This was clearly a staged 308 00:29:55.319 --> 00:29:59.880 video for the benefit of his father, and but just the fact that he 309 00:30:00.079 --> 00:30:03.559 thought he could get away with it really blows my mind. Yeah, and 310 00:30:03.599 --> 00:30:07.559 he even said he made a Yeah, I made a separate post on telegram 311 00:30:07.599 --> 00:30:11.440 and said, in light of the reactions to the reserve video circling on the 312 00:30:11.519 --> 00:30:15.200 networks, let's sort out the question of what a military rebellion is. An 313 00:30:15.319 --> 00:30:19.400 army that announces that, in times of dispute, will only obey the government 314 00:30:19.440 --> 00:30:22.440 and the prime minister, it's not a rebellion. But on the contrary, 315 00:30:22.599 --> 00:30:27.279 is an army that obeys the law. Hey, you know what I've written 316 00:30:27.319 --> 00:30:32.559 about that. You know, when you're compelling when it is your duty to 317 00:30:32.640 --> 00:30:38.920 disobey orders. But no, that doesn't fall into that category. But you 318 00:30:38.960 --> 00:30:45.279 can see how you know, we talk when I say we, but I 319 00:30:45.279 --> 00:30:49.039 mean from time to time, there's somewhat hysterical speculation in the States about the 320 00:30:49.079 --> 00:30:56.799 prospects of the civil war. But I can tell you that the divisions in 321 00:30:56.839 --> 00:31:07.319 Israel feel far, far more raw when you're there than they ever do here. 322 00:31:07.720 --> 00:31:11.119 I mean, part of that's a function of geography, but part of 323 00:31:11.119 --> 00:31:19.359 it's a function of the times. But it's also a function of polarization, 324 00:31:19.599 --> 00:31:25.319 and not left right polarization, but polarization of issues. You know, the 325 00:31:25.400 --> 00:31:29.160 day and this day after in Gaza is one. What to do about the 326 00:31:29.200 --> 00:31:37.039 hostages is another. But yeah, you know, there was an unprecedented breakdown 327 00:31:37.519 --> 00:31:45.400 in discipline from government point of view in the military back in March when Netnya, 328 00:31:45.519 --> 00:31:52.519 who was fiddling around trying to change they trying to get essentially better control, 329 00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:56.240 greater control, governmental control over the judiciary, right, and there was 330 00:31:56.319 --> 00:32:01.720 army, a military pushback, popular pushback on that, and the military took 331 00:32:01.839 --> 00:32:07.400 front and center stage. There were reports, you know, of pilots not 332 00:32:07.559 --> 00:32:14.480 reporting to duty. Gallant himself resigned and Letnahu backed down. So all of 333 00:32:14.480 --> 00:32:17.240 this happened even before the war. The divisions were were there. The war 334 00:32:17.400 --> 00:32:22.680 has exacerbated them, and I think Gamar, you know, Rafa and uh 335 00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:28.720 and and this question of the day after has has brought them to a to 336 00:32:28.799 --> 00:32:35.720 a crescendo. HM and and I think you know what all this is going 337 00:32:35.880 --> 00:32:40.319 on, the question is what's her mass doing? Now? What's what's happened 338 00:32:40.319 --> 00:32:45.599 to Hamas? And I've you know, I've read, I wrote an article 339 00:32:45.640 --> 00:32:52.079 about this just you know, just yesterday. But if you look at you 340 00:32:52.119 --> 00:32:55.079 know, let's let's throw aside all this just talk about what her mask was 341 00:32:55.079 --> 00:32:59.279 seen here, here, her mass was seen there. Let's just look at 342 00:32:59.720 --> 00:33:05.839 you know, hamas leadership, infrastructure, the fighters, you know, their 343 00:33:06.039 --> 00:33:08.559 their units and their ideology. And I'm not going to you know all you 344 00:33:08.599 --> 00:33:14.880 guys, but you know, bottom line leadership. The Israelis have they say, 345 00:33:15.160 --> 00:33:21.440 killed one hundred and thirteen of Hamas's leaderships, you know, mid ranking 346 00:33:21.519 --> 00:33:27.599 guys. Where the BBC didn't challenge the claim about leadership, it challenged the 347 00:33:27.680 --> 00:33:30.319 names on the list because it was finding like, you know, found the 348 00:33:30.359 --> 00:33:36.200 name of the Janeta, found the name for I mean, not a journalist. 349 00:33:36.640 --> 00:33:40.880 It found duplicatet names and all of this, so the list may not 350 00:33:42.079 --> 00:33:47.039 be accurate. The Israelis again claimed that it represents seventy to eighty percent of 351 00:33:47.160 --> 00:33:52.480 the masses leadership. But I would argue whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant. 352 00:33:52.519 --> 00:33:55.759 Because of the way that HAMAS is structured, all of those guys will 353 00:33:55.759 --> 00:34:01.559 have been replaced seamlessly. You know, Hamas. You're seeing IDF briefs. 354 00:34:01.599 --> 00:34:08.400 You know, the Hamas referred to by it as though it's military structure, 355 00:34:08.719 --> 00:34:16.320 brigades and battalions, and indeed HAMAS uses that terminology. It uses brigades for 356 00:34:16.599 --> 00:34:22.079 you know, for regional organization, and it uses battalions just kind of a 357 00:34:22.159 --> 00:34:27.199 loose as a loose method of authority. But most of all the succession of 358 00:34:27.239 --> 00:34:30.719 command. Right, So someone does get killed, they get replaced quickly. 359 00:34:30.039 --> 00:34:36.559 So the whole structure is designed to replace people in a hurry. So whether 360 00:34:36.679 --> 00:34:39.400 or not they killed one hundred and thirteen are these people makes little difference. 361 00:34:39.800 --> 00:34:45.840 And you know, of the top three, the three guys who who organized 362 00:34:45.920 --> 00:34:52.199 and who planned and executed seven October, only one Muhammed Isha I'm going to 363 00:34:52.239 --> 00:34:57.519 mispronounce his name as w who was killed. Just as last week, only 364 00:34:57.559 --> 00:35:02.320 one of them has been killed. So leadership are pretty much intact. You 365 00:35:02.320 --> 00:35:07.480 know, infrastructure, you don't have to take it from me, you know, 366 00:35:07.519 --> 00:35:13.760 I can just tell you about Israeli targeting techniques. They target tunnel shafts, 367 00:35:14.039 --> 00:35:15.760 right, they have to. I mean, it's the most visible, 368 00:35:15.920 --> 00:35:20.400 detectable part of the tunnel. It's the most vulnerable. The thing is that 369 00:35:20.440 --> 00:35:27.639 the way the tunnels are structured in Gaza, the shaft is insulated by an 370 00:35:27.639 --> 00:35:32.840 outbra the only thing I can call it is another kind of an outshoot from 371 00:35:32.880 --> 00:35:37.519 the main tunnel. So the shaft doesn't even lead to the main tunnel, 372 00:35:37.760 --> 00:35:43.159 and the main tunnel will have you know, maybe four or five shafts, 373 00:35:43.480 --> 00:35:47.880 and the tunnels on the tunnel framework, which is one single tunnel with all 374 00:35:47.920 --> 00:35:53.960 those offshoots, is not connected to another tunnel. So you see, you've 375 00:35:54.079 --> 00:35:59.159 destroyed a shaft, and you've destroyed a shaft, and that's how the Israelis 376 00:35:59.199 --> 00:36:05.000 are reporting tunnel destruction. You haven't you haven't even destroyed the entire tunnel, 377 00:36:05.079 --> 00:36:08.880 let alone touched the network by hitting that shaft. So when the Israelis say 378 00:36:08.920 --> 00:36:14.599 that they have destroyed four hundred tunnels or whatever, that means four hundred strikes 379 00:36:14.599 --> 00:36:17.679 on shafts in which they could see they've destroyed just to you know, close 380 00:36:17.760 --> 00:36:23.679 the shaft. You know there's an and there was an expert quoted in Israeli 381 00:36:23.719 --> 00:36:29.360 papers this week. I forget her name, doctor at one of the main 382 00:36:29.400 --> 00:36:32.840 think tanks, but her area of expertise is an underground warfare, and she 383 00:36:34.079 --> 00:36:39.039 says, in her words, it would be impossible to destroy that framework of 384 00:36:39.079 --> 00:36:45.599 tunnels, her mass's framework of tunnels. And so you know the most important 385 00:36:45.599 --> 00:36:50.440 of those are the tunnels that go that connect ans in to the outside world 386 00:36:50.519 --> 00:36:53.880 to Egypt, that go under the Philadelphia crossing, and those have not been 387 00:36:53.880 --> 00:37:00.119 destroyed and are not being held right now, although the Israelis are sitting on 388 00:37:00.199 --> 00:37:04.480 top of them. So you'll see that when you're talking about destruction of buildings 389 00:37:04.480 --> 00:37:12.039 above ground, and you're talking about destroying har Maas's inventory of ordinance, which 390 00:37:12.320 --> 00:37:17.599 Israel has been you know, quite successful in doing. If you haven't touched 391 00:37:19.239 --> 00:37:24.840 Maas's means of replenishment, then it matters little what else you have messed up. 392 00:37:24.880 --> 00:37:29.679 So a lot of destruction, but I would argue that very little of 393 00:37:29.679 --> 00:37:35.559 it to Hamas's critical infrastructure. And then you've got and then you've got the 394 00:37:35.559 --> 00:37:38.599 fighters, right units or fighters. What I've said, it makes no sense 395 00:37:38.639 --> 00:37:44.440 to talk about. But below battalion you are talking about twos and threes. 396 00:37:44.639 --> 00:37:50.519 All right, the largest, one of the largest attacks, infiltration attacks in 397 00:37:50.559 --> 00:37:53.119 the entire war, and it tied down a battalion for three days. Was 398 00:37:53.119 --> 00:37:59.559 conducted by six guys, right, and I heard that from repeatedly brigade command 399 00:37:59.599 --> 00:38:01.679 of battalion, and that was one of the largest attacks. These guys are 400 00:38:01.719 --> 00:38:10.719 operating in one in two threes. Even once you know RPG minds I DSH 401 00:38:14.239 --> 00:38:22.760 you destroy something exactly exactly. So so that is why, uh, the 402 00:38:23.239 --> 00:38:28.800 Israeli, the IDF is so focused on a body count. You know, 403 00:38:29.960 --> 00:38:35.559 one one senior general commented to the papers, you know, we've become Westmoreland, 404 00:38:35.960 --> 00:38:38.400 which you know, and focused on that. But but that But the 405 00:38:38.480 --> 00:38:43.960 problem is that for the intelligence guys, they're like, look, you you 406 00:38:44.000 --> 00:38:46.599 can talk when you want about destroying brigades or battalions, but it doesn't mean 407 00:38:46.679 --> 00:38:51.239 shit. The only way to measure the effect you're having on him is to 408 00:38:51.320 --> 00:38:55.639 kill his people, because they because his those those little groups are his main 409 00:38:55.840 --> 00:39:00.000 component of combat power. And the way to hurt them somebody to kill people. 410 00:39:00.760 --> 00:39:05.119 That's the argument, and that's why it's been reported. So then take 411 00:39:05.159 --> 00:39:08.599 a look at you know, before the war, the Israelis said that Hamas 412 00:39:08.599 --> 00:39:14.639 had around thirty thousand guys. By that, I mean they made thirty thousand 413 00:39:15.000 --> 00:39:21.039 guys in Gaza who were being paid to do Hamas things most of the time, 414 00:39:21.400 --> 00:39:25.360 right, full time more or less full time fighters. They claim to 415 00:39:25.360 --> 00:39:30.599 have killed thirteen thousand. Now, if you look at total figures, that 416 00:39:30.679 --> 00:39:38.079 those killed thirty five thousand something. And yes, the figures come from the 417 00:39:38.239 --> 00:39:43.599 Ghazan Health Ministry HA mask control. But you know those two of the UN 418 00:39:45.920 --> 00:39:51.639 not just the UN, but independent there's a UK ANDNGO tracking casualties. But 419 00:39:51.719 --> 00:39:58.039 anyway, there isn't a lot of dispute about the number of figures, percentage 420 00:39:58.039 --> 00:40:00.000 of those women and children, There isn't a great of dispute, you know, 421 00:40:00.079 --> 00:40:07.280 two thirds, just over two thirds as they So my point is that 422 00:40:07.360 --> 00:40:13.199 if two thirds of thirty five thousand, there's you know, twenty four thousand. 423 00:40:13.440 --> 00:40:22.400 So even if every single military age male who was killed in Gaza was 424 00:40:22.440 --> 00:40:27.280 a member of her Maas, that's eleven thousand guys, okay, which is 425 00:40:27.280 --> 00:40:30.119 not the thirteen thousand. So that might be a little steep when they say 426 00:40:30.159 --> 00:40:36.039 they killed thirteen thousand people. But on the other hand, you know, 427 00:40:36.039 --> 00:40:40.920 they probably incapacitated two to three times that many, right, her wounds and 428 00:40:42.440 --> 00:40:49.199 everything else. So it's not unreasonable to say that they could well have you 429 00:40:49.239 --> 00:40:52.480 know, for one tenth and purposes destroyed her Mass's personnel, you know, 430 00:40:52.679 --> 00:41:02.199 destroyed they killed more than killed or incapacitated some Okay, does that mean her 431 00:41:02.239 --> 00:41:07.079 Mass is done? Though? You know, I mean, how how deep 432 00:41:07.159 --> 00:41:12.079 has the ideology seeped into the population. I mean, some say that the 433 00:41:12.199 --> 00:41:20.840 ideology was already deeply steeped in the population from decades of being holed up in 434 00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:24.440 Gaza together, right, But the question is, you know, has what 435 00:41:24.480 --> 00:41:31.159 has happened since seven October increased that support or reduced it to zero? And 436 00:41:31.199 --> 00:41:36.360 I would say it's very unlikely that it's reduced it to zero, and that 437 00:41:36.480 --> 00:41:43.599 ideology maybe her Mass's most deadly legacy and the greatest yet and the greatest threat 438 00:41:43.760 --> 00:41:49.840 yet to Israel. Yeah, all right, we got we got one more. 439 00:41:49.960 --> 00:41:52.960 I mean yeah, by itself, it seems like a completely feudal enterprise 440 00:41:53.000 --> 00:41:57.760 to be trying to do this. We got one thing that came in just 441 00:41:57.760 --> 00:42:04.280 before we started from The Guardian about a former Israeli spice chief threatned the International 442 00:42:04.280 --> 00:42:09.199 Criminal Court prosecutor over war crimes inquiry that was prior to October seventh, and 443 00:42:09.320 --> 00:42:13.280 like the kickoff of all this, Jay, you wanted to talk about this 444 00:42:13.360 --> 00:42:16.480 a bit. Yeah, so this is a classic. We talked in like 445 00:42:16.599 --> 00:42:24.800 I think one of our first two episodes about motivations for committing espionage and which 446 00:42:24.880 --> 00:42:29.840 is mice m i ce. One of those is coercion, and it seems 447 00:42:29.840 --> 00:42:36.320 that in this case that was the the goal. So the X massade chief 448 00:42:36.440 --> 00:42:45.079 yosse Cohen, it was alleged that he headed up himself personally a operation to 449 00:42:45.719 --> 00:42:54.280 course the International Courts prosecutor I'm gonna screw her name up fatal Ben Soda into 450 00:42:55.719 --> 00:43:02.320 uh dropping any pursuit of you know, any kind of charges against military personnel 451 00:43:04.920 --> 00:43:10.920 or higher ranking political figures. So the operation was like first, it started 452 00:43:10.960 --> 00:43:15.599 out kind of like, you know, whispers in her ear about that this 453 00:43:15.679 --> 00:43:20.079 may you know, it would be in her best interest to let this kind 454 00:43:20.079 --> 00:43:24.079 of thing go. But according to her, it got increasingly hostile and persistent. 455 00:43:25.440 --> 00:43:30.800 And most intel ops don't normally start that way. It's you know, 456 00:43:30.840 --> 00:43:36.159 it's usually pretty or I should say they don't normally start full steam. It 457 00:43:36.280 --> 00:43:42.320 usually ramps up that way depending on the intell agency. But these veil threats 458 00:43:42.480 --> 00:43:46.440 eventually got to like an old school mob style. Hey, it's a dangerous 459 00:43:46.480 --> 00:43:50.199 world out there, got it, you know, why don't you let us 460 00:43:50.239 --> 00:43:54.559 protect you, you and your family. So that was the backhanded way of 461 00:43:55.079 --> 00:44:00.280 issuing a threat that you never know what's going to happen. You know, 462 00:44:00.719 --> 00:44:02.320 it's a bad world out there, a lot of wolves at the door, 463 00:44:02.440 --> 00:44:07.039 so let us protect you. And then eventually it would be, well, 464 00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:10.840 we're protecting you in exchange for that, why don't you back off a little 465 00:44:10.880 --> 00:44:17.599 bit? So sometimes that works, a lot of times it doesn't. And 466 00:44:17.639 --> 00:44:22.719 I'm gonna say this in my own little bubble that I worked in. I 467 00:44:22.760 --> 00:44:28.039 do not speak for the US government or Intel agencies when we say this we 468 00:44:28.119 --> 00:44:31.320 don't use or we're taught that we don't use coercion. I'm not saying that 469 00:44:31.400 --> 00:44:37.039 in you know, way above me that someone hasn't done it or authorized it. 470 00:44:37.079 --> 00:44:39.840 And I'm sure it was done a long time ago. But most of 471 00:44:39.840 --> 00:44:45.519 the time it doesn't work. It's just like, you know, if I 472 00:44:45.559 --> 00:44:47.199 beat you long enough, you're gonna tell me exactly what I want to hear, 473 00:44:47.480 --> 00:44:53.519 whether that's the truth, or not so coersion can it can go one 474 00:44:53.559 --> 00:44:59.360 way or the other. And so that's why most Western intel agencies don't use 475 00:44:59.400 --> 00:45:02.199 it. So like you'd said, you you said earlier, it happened before 476 00:45:02.280 --> 00:45:07.320 October seventh, and uh, Cohen, I don't know what his influence is 477 00:45:07.360 --> 00:45:13.239 now. I do know I'd read that he had been a rising political star. 478 00:45:13.719 --> 00:45:16.360 Uh some political scheme. But Andy, maybe you know a little better 479 00:45:16.400 --> 00:45:22.639 than me what I don't. I don't. But actually I've got a good 480 00:45:22.679 --> 00:45:29.519 at question totally off off, not off topic. But going back to your 481 00:45:29.519 --> 00:45:35.800 comment about coercion, So so is blackmail regarded as a former coercion? Yeah, 482 00:45:36.679 --> 00:45:42.199 uh, certainly. I mean, but that seems to be when when 483 00:45:42.239 --> 00:45:50.239 we look at motivation for for for essentially US traders, right who turn over 484 00:45:51.079 --> 00:45:57.559 what is isn't money? That is that? That is the usually from what 485 00:45:57.679 --> 00:46:01.760 I've studied, Uh, it looks like usually it's money and ego going hand 486 00:46:01.840 --> 00:46:07.159 in hand most time. Look at Hanson, Robert Hanson. He needed the 487 00:46:07.199 --> 00:46:12.199 money, but he also was one hundred percent sure that he could get away 488 00:46:12.239 --> 00:46:15.320 with it because he was a smart guy, you know, very very smart 489 00:46:15.320 --> 00:46:17.320 guy. He knew his job, he knew the ins and out of it. 490 00:46:17.480 --> 00:46:22.519 So he knew how to get around all of it. But those two 491 00:46:22.639 --> 00:46:27.559 things his ego and need of money, although at a certain point he really 492 00:46:27.559 --> 00:46:32.039 didn't need it, it just became a thing overtook him. And plus he 493 00:46:32.119 --> 00:46:37.639 got you know, well I shouldn't say him, but others got family involved. 494 00:46:37.639 --> 00:46:44.480 So once you start adding those loose ends, as they say in something's 495 00:46:44.519 --> 00:46:50.559 gonna go wrong. So Corson, at least from a US standpoint, doesn't. 496 00:46:50.639 --> 00:46:52.920 I don't know of any incidents, and I'm sure someone can tell me 497 00:46:53.199 --> 00:47:01.199 in the comments. Ideology. I think more played into it. Towards the 498 00:47:01.320 --> 00:47:06.159 end of the First Golf War and the beginning of the War on Terror. 499 00:47:06.159 --> 00:47:08.599 You had people who had been radicalized, and so eventually, you know, 500 00:47:09.000 --> 00:47:13.440 if they were in that position to give information, they started doing that, 501 00:47:13.760 --> 00:47:15.719 but mostly was money and ego, and they usually go hand in hand, 502 00:47:15.760 --> 00:47:21.280 just like corigion and compromise usually go hand in hand. So yeah, that's 503 00:47:21.280 --> 00:47:29.840 really good. So coercion and compromise. So I would say the initial for 504 00:47:29.880 --> 00:47:37.719 the US, for US traders, essentially he'd sell secrets motivated by greed. 505 00:47:37.039 --> 00:47:43.880 But regardless of motive, after that initial contact, there's always coercion. Yeah, 506 00:47:43.920 --> 00:47:49.760 right, and even and even for US case officer after that initial hook, 507 00:47:50.360 --> 00:47:54.559 after the initial transfer, there's the there's implicit coercion. Yeah, and 508 00:47:54.559 --> 00:47:59.679 if he doesn't intend it, even if you don't intend it, yeah, 509 00:47:59.679 --> 00:48:08.119 because yeah, part of what your your relationship with that recruitment is, uh, 510 00:48:08.960 --> 00:48:15.440 is you want to ensure them that their safety is your priority. You 511 00:48:15.480 --> 00:48:19.119 know, so you have your training, but you also want to impart on 512 00:48:19.199 --> 00:48:23.280 them that you're, uh, you're gonna use your training to keep them and 513 00:48:23.320 --> 00:48:27.800 their family safe and uh, you know, their jobs safe and all that 514 00:48:27.840 --> 00:48:32.800 stuff. So that's the implied coercion. It's like, Okay, well, 515 00:48:32.880 --> 00:48:36.920 now we've you've taken a little money, you've give me a little information. 516 00:48:37.000 --> 00:48:39.559 Even if they haven't taken money yet. It's like you're not going to actually 517 00:48:39.559 --> 00:48:42.760 come out and say it, but it's like you just took a step down 518 00:48:42.800 --> 00:48:45.400 that road. Now you know, now I have to keep you safe. 519 00:48:45.719 --> 00:48:47.760 So that's always in the back of their head, like, you know, 520 00:48:49.840 --> 00:48:52.079 you don't come out and say it, but it's implied and in the back 521 00:48:52.119 --> 00:48:55.159 of their head they're thinking, well, shit, I just gave them information, 522 00:48:55.639 --> 00:49:00.920 so now I have to you know, rely on this and now I 523 00:49:00.000 --> 00:49:05.039 have to keep it going. And some do somewhere down the road or early 524 00:49:05.079 --> 00:49:07.480 on, say you know what, I'll take my chances. I'm not doing 525 00:49:07.559 --> 00:49:10.719 it, and okay, you know, here's your little bit of money or 526 00:49:10.760 --> 00:49:15.599 whatever, thanks you know, for you know, for working with us. 527 00:49:15.719 --> 00:49:22.239 But some people just eventually something else takes over, whether it's I think it 528 00:49:22.320 --> 00:49:25.880 moves out of coercion after a while, and it becomes the money is great, 529 00:49:27.440 --> 00:49:30.400 the medicine for my child is great, the promise, possible promise of 530 00:49:31.679 --> 00:49:36.480 being bought to the US, you know, all those things start to take 531 00:49:36.519 --> 00:49:40.199 over. Whereas when you have somewhere like maybe the Chinese MSS or something like 532 00:49:40.239 --> 00:49:44.599 that, where it's like that guy's in a hotel or that female's in a 533 00:49:44.639 --> 00:49:47.159 hotel and they come walking out of the closet with a camera like, hey 534 00:49:47.440 --> 00:49:54.519 gotcha. You know, I think after a while that fear, i'm not 535 00:49:54.519 --> 00:49:59.320 gonna say it starts to wear off. But because they become desensitized to it, 536 00:49:59.360 --> 00:50:01.920 and that's why a lot of them at certain points just choose to defect. 537 00:50:02.039 --> 00:50:05.360 They just choose to well, I'll take my chances to get the hell 538 00:50:05.440 --> 00:50:09.400 out, you know. So yeah, and I know This may sound, 539 00:50:09.599 --> 00:50:13.559 you know, a little bit hokey to some, but it's fair to say 540 00:50:13.599 --> 00:50:20.320 too they think that they're in the for the US at least, I mean, 541 00:50:20.679 --> 00:50:24.119 only that I can speak of. But when a case officer establishes that 542 00:50:24.239 --> 00:50:30.079 relationship, trust has to be involved, absolving trust, and and that protection 543 00:50:30.360 --> 00:50:36.880 physical protection of sources is central to for instance, the agency's ethos. Now 544 00:50:37.159 --> 00:50:40.519 you know, regardless of whatever happened in the past, it is absolutely central 545 00:50:40.559 --> 00:50:45.800 and to each case officers, you know, you're never I mean, it's 546 00:50:45.840 --> 00:50:51.480 it's almost it's like it goes beyond attorney client privilege, right because people's clients 547 00:50:51.519 --> 00:50:55.559 are at stake, and it's very and the whole you know, the ability 548 00:50:55.559 --> 00:51:01.079 to the institution to do what it does as well depends on absolutely yeah. 549 00:51:01.119 --> 00:51:07.079 And that's why as you get to an early point, as early as possible 550 00:51:07.239 --> 00:51:10.920 in the relationship, you want to move that relationship from public whereas hey, 551 00:51:10.960 --> 00:51:16.159 I just met this person at a embassy ball or you know, on the 552 00:51:16.199 --> 00:51:21.000 tennis court as quickly as possible, but as safely as possible, move that 553 00:51:21.079 --> 00:51:27.760 into a semi and then a fully clandestine relationship behind closed doors, you know, 554 00:51:28.039 --> 00:51:35.719 and at every meeting you are reiterating that their safety is paramount at paramount, 555 00:51:35.760 --> 00:51:38.840 and that you are doing everything in your power to keep them safe, 556 00:51:39.000 --> 00:51:45.400 which behooves them to listen to what you're saying to them and heed your instructions, 557 00:51:45.599 --> 00:51:50.559 those kind of things, because I always you know, it was taught 558 00:51:50.559 --> 00:51:53.880 to me, and I always say that usually depend you know, depending on 559 00:51:53.920 --> 00:51:59.119 the situation that the country you're working in, the most you're gonna get I'm 560 00:51:59.159 --> 00:52:01.239 gonna get, you're gonna get is you know, thrown in jail. They're 561 00:52:01.239 --> 00:52:05.760 gonna you know, if you get caught, they're gonna, oh, we're 562 00:52:05.760 --> 00:52:07.280 gonna keep you here forever, you know, blah blah blah, that kind 563 00:52:07.320 --> 00:52:10.760 of thing. And behind the scenes, state department, depending on your cover, 564 00:52:12.159 --> 00:52:15.280 is working on getting you back a trade whatever it is. You get 565 00:52:15.360 --> 00:52:17.880 kicked out of country, your persona on gratti, you don't come back, 566 00:52:19.159 --> 00:52:23.079 but you emphasize to them you get caught, it's your life or your freedom, 567 00:52:23.280 --> 00:52:28.519 So it behooves you. So think about now on the front end of 568 00:52:28.519 --> 00:52:30.840 that, if you just coerce somebody into doing it, Hey, I have 569 00:52:30.920 --> 00:52:37.760 these you know, I've got these photos of you with this prostitute. I'm 570 00:52:37.760 --> 00:52:40.159 sure your job doesn't want to find out, blah blahah whatever. Well, 571 00:52:40.480 --> 00:52:45.119 situations change. What if six months from now that guy and his wife or 572 00:52:45.159 --> 00:52:49.239 that woman and her husband are getting a divorce and they don't give a shit 573 00:52:49.320 --> 00:52:52.800 that you have the papers anymore, the pictures anymore. So now your coresion 574 00:52:52.880 --> 00:52:57.239 is just fizzled out. So I think it's easier to go with the money 575 00:52:57.320 --> 00:53:01.760 and the ego and possibly the ideology as well. Yeah, ego is a 576 00:53:01.760 --> 00:53:06.760 big one. Yeah, yes, it is just finished that just reading the 577 00:53:06.760 --> 00:53:08.920 book Fat Leonard, by the way, I recommend it to everyone. And 578 00:53:08.960 --> 00:53:15.599 you want to talk about Unfortunately Fat Leonard was not a foreign agent because he 579 00:53:15.639 --> 00:53:20.840 would have been He would have wrecked havoc. Havoc not just on US seventh 580 00:53:20.840 --> 00:53:24.559 Fleet, but on US security. But you want to talk about reed and 581 00:53:24.760 --> 00:53:32.320 ego as motivations. Ninety one admirals were caught up in the investigation. And 582 00:53:34.280 --> 00:53:37.159 you know, when the view of many and many more should I mean a 583 00:53:37.199 --> 00:53:39.840 number of them should have gone to prison, only one ended up going to 584 00:53:39.880 --> 00:53:45.840 prison in the end. But when you read it, it's incredible. You 585 00:53:45.840 --> 00:53:53.119 know, our peers, navy captains, a marine colonel just making idiots themselves 586 00:53:53.199 --> 00:54:02.079 for you know, party favors, prostitutes, sham pain arties, but most 587 00:54:02.079 --> 00:54:07.239 of them having their REGOs stroked. Absolutely, It's just unbelievable. It is. 588 00:54:09.119 --> 00:54:12.920 That was great, all right, So choke Andy's ego a little bit. 589 00:54:13.000 --> 00:54:15.199 Check out his book. It's a link is in the description. It's 590 00:54:15.199 --> 00:54:25.199 a great book, award winning, it's my pocket book. I already had 591 00:54:25.199 --> 00:54:30.320 to spend a night at your house. Don't forget to like and subscribe if 592 00:54:30.360 --> 00:54:31.800 you're listening to us on audio, rate and review it best thing you could 593 00:54:31.800 --> 00:54:36.320 do. Also share it, tell a friend about it, and our patreon 594 00:54:36.400 --> 00:54:39.360 Patreon dot com, slash the teamhouse you can find Andy. All the links 595 00:54:39.360 --> 00:54:43.360 are in the description, from his Twitter to his book, to his LinkedIn 596 00:54:43.480 --> 00:54:49.639 to his sub stack Jason, No, not happening, and uh I gotta 597 00:54:49.679 --> 00:54:52.599 shout out. I got a shout out real quick. Uh okay, I 598 00:54:52.679 --> 00:55:00.280 want to try and get this message to the second Battalion Role Rifles the CEO, 599 00:55:00.400 --> 00:55:07.199 Colonel Nick, thank you so much for just an awesome time last Friday. 600 00:55:07.239 --> 00:55:12.880 I got to speak to the regiment and I'll tell you what. If 601 00:55:12.920 --> 00:55:21.239 you are at all intrigued by elite forces, then then read up on the 602 00:55:21.239 --> 00:55:25.800 gurkhas most extraordinary group of individuals and there remains so and it was my great 603 00:55:25.800 --> 00:55:31.400 privilege and honor to be able to talk to them. So yeah, roll 604 00:55:31.440 --> 00:55:37.320 Gokha rifles, Hurrah, whatever they say, I are go, karlimh