Hey guys, it's Jack. I just wanted to talk to you today about
a way that you can help support the podcast if you're not already to support
the channel is to become a Patreon member. So we have Patreon memberships that
start at just five dollars a month, and when you sign up, you
get access to all of our episodes add free. That's the big bonus for
that. I mean, we also do some Patreon bonus episodes for our subscribers,
but this is the biggest and best way that you can support the Teamhouse
channel and podcast if you'd like to, and we really appreciate that, So
go and check us out at patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone,
welcome to another episode of Aizon. I'm Andy Mulban, I'm Jason Lyons,
Dmitri Co Tacos the no shortage of news as usual. Yeah, it's
pretty it's pretty wild. What do you want to kick off with? I
mean, this horrible news of you know, the fire and some thirty five
to forty deaths in in Rafa and I you know, I for one,
I don't really have anything to pile on with at this point, and honestly,
it's you know, it's just the images are horrible, and I have
written about deconfliction procedures, the you know, the issues with deconfliction procedures and
the gods of conflict or lack their off and so you know, I'm not
going to pile in at this point and make assumptions, but just to say,
you know, it's again another very tragic incident. Any anything else on
that that, guys, No, I'm treading. I'm treading carefully because I
know it's you know, the a lot of people are are as when these
things happen on both sides become very emotion Yeah, yeah, I figured,
yeah, we definitely have to mention it because it was in the news this
weekend. Uh, front and center. Obviously seems like Israel doesn't, it's
my opinion, doesn't really care about deconfliction whatsoever. Certainly there you know,
it's fair to say, as I've written, their standards and I've been detailed
about this and shown how their standards are a a lot different than ours in
the US military, let me put it that way. But but how about
how about this? You know, so the and US papers kind of they
didn't gloss over it, but it I'm talking about Israeli Defense Minister You Gallant's
declaration on on Wednesday night, he made a public address accusing the government of
mismanaging the war. Let me say that again, that is the defense minister
accusing the government of which he is part of, miss managing the war.
But specifically, of course, he is targeting Netnahu. And I think that
as I said, this was this, This wasn't kind of front page news
necessarily in US papers, But this is huge in Israel because not simply because
he is the defense minister, but because the belief is that he is not
just representing himself or a political you know, small political group within within the
government, conclude Benny Gance, those you know, the so called centrists,
but indeed that he represents the institution, the the I d F and the
Shinbet in particular and ranged on the other side, of course, are you
know the extreme right wing members of who's cabinet, the most notory of which
are Ben Gabeer and Small Dridge. And so this this is you know,
in Israeli eyes, this is the final showdown. And there's no doubt where
you know, the sympathies of I think most Israeli's lion. This Gallant is
he is, He's an iconic figure. Yes, you know, he's by
no means as centrist, but he is certainly a national hero. He was
in as a I mean from the late seventies Israeli Special Operations Forces, specifically
Plotilla of thirteen, which is their equivalent of of the Seals, just fewer
movies and books. But I mean he was you know, he was tier
one of Tier one. I mean, he was involved in these targeted killings
over the seas that Ronan Bergmann has written about in that excellent book Rise and
Kill First. You have. Gallant appears very frequently in that book, is
leading these targeted killing teams. So you know, certainly he's he's not by
himself on this. And he and Netnar who have had a long falling out
that precedes even Netner who firing him back in March of twenty twenty three.
And and you'll notice two other things that have happened this week that are not
necessarily been you know that that haven't been connected, at least not in US
media. The same this last week, the IDF made in a now released
documents that showed that that Netnar who they had warned netnar who four times about
Hamas in the period of late twenty twenty two early twenty twenty three. All
right, so this is probably not coincidental. That's kind of a bombshell.
And then the IDF spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagary Hagari, you know,
the guy with those massive ears, looks like doctor Spock, not doctor Spock,
mister spot anyway, so he he is. He made a comment today,
I mean not today, on Tuesday that implied that the IDF, the
IDEF was having to take a step back or all the gains made by the
IDF were slipping away because and he worried at such like it would be different
if we had some kind of national goals rategy. You know. That's and
that's the public affairs guy from the IDEA. So you know, none of
this is coincidental. So Gallant came on on Israeli TV and he asked three
questions. And the first I thought this was very well delivered. It wasn't
a rambling, long, rambling speech. But the first question was to net
Nahu, do you want a short war or a long one? And you
know this this question is really at the heart of a glance, demand that
the government discussed, at least discuss and then decide on an alternative to Hamas
and Gaza, which well, it would inevitably hasten the end of major fighting
and give the IDEF some direction. So the second question, he asked Gallant,
Well, it wasn't really a question. He asked Netnahu to declare that
he opposes get this, that he that Netnyahu opposes and Israeli military or civil
governance of post hamask Gaza. In other words, he's insisting that the Prime
Minister tell the country and the world that he will not pursue occupying Gaza and
managing civilian issues there the way that you know, a military government government would
you know, as has happened in the territories for instance, after after the
Sixth Day War with you know, with a lot of a lot of institutional
bad memory for for the Israelis, and he doesn't want to, you know,
and and also of course memories of Lebanon Golan. Doesn't want Israel to
end up in you know, another quagmire like that or or indeed the West
Bank, you know, in which it is in a situation that it rules
over millions of hostel Palestinians, you know, to to to the security forces,
that's a that's a terrible scenario that could possibly even destroy the state,
you know, and then near a long term and you know, in orders,
there's no doubt about it that on Netnya who's right and Ben Gavince Moldrich
have been quite open about this. The you know, the right wing want
to resettle Gaza with Israeli settlers, right, Gallant knows this. And then
twenty years ago Gallant was the it was a military advisor to them Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon when Schearan ordered the withdrawal, oversaw the total this Israeli disengagement from
the Gaza Strip to include breaking down and removing the settlements, you know,
I mean the Sharan, I mean the reasons for that of course quite quite
separate. But but so interestingly, you see what I'm saying that that this
is a really fundamental split now. And and that was you know, that
was uh, although he didn't say so explicitly, Glant's not opposed to the
Palestinian authority playing a role in management of the Gaza Strip, which is something
that is enathma to Net me argue in the extreme right wing, and Gallant
thinks that that is because well he knows, he thinks he knows or whatever.
You know. The claim is that the right wing essentially support Harmas because
her Maas is the unacceptable face of Palestinian authority small a right to the Israelis.
So as long as her Maas represents Gaza, then there can be no
talk of a two state solution. They know that and and therefore want helm
As to continue front and center. But they can't say that, you know.
So that's that that's the rift there, right. And then so the
third so that that was the second to make a statement, you know,
there's you know, we absolutely have no intention of military governance of occupation of
the Gaza strip Gallant. Gallant, by the way, so it is said,
has been in discussions about and you know, with the with the US
about a solution that involved and interim Palestinian authority backed government backed by Arab states,
notably Jordan's arm and Uh and and u A, possibly Egypt. So
anyway, the third decision though that that he's asking Netnia who is is about
the future of the government of the Israeli government, you know, it's basically
which side are you on? That's what he's asking. Are you going to
stand with me and and Benny Gantz and Daddy Eisencott, you know, two
fellow generals who are relatively centrist, although you know, really right right of
center, or are you going to go with the right ministers? Uh?
What's his name? Sounds like Bielsa Beezel Smodrich and uh and item up Ben
Gibeer And that was the you know, that's the subtext. But but the
question is what what is you know, what is the future of the government.
Gallant called for advancing the national interest over all other interests. All right,
that's you know, that's very thinly coded text for yeah, you know,
ditch your political ambitions and stop putting them before national interest. But you
know it's son who has to make a decision. I mean, it's no
way, there's no way that Glance going to make this the public challenge and
then and then just back down. But who knows that a decision to place
governance of Gaza in the hands of the Palestinian authorities will lead to confrontation with
both Smoldridge and Ben Givie and possibly loss of of their support the right wing
support. That's not going to bring the government down immediately, but it's certainly
going to hurt who's chances then, which you know, I mean, it's
surprising me he believes he does have them. It's a political few. So
yeah, sorry, let me ask real quick. It seems and this is
just my limited observation that these public back and forth between politicians is normal there
like it is here. But is that normal between a defense minister and the
Prime minister to be so public? No? No, no, that's all.
This is unprecedented. Absolutely. I mean there have been you know,
silky confrontation within the cabinet. Is it is, it is something that is
more public than it is here, and it's almost an expectation at times,
but nothing like this has occurred before. I mean, this is monumental,
not it's not more of the same. And I think think you know,
from anyone's perspective, it's good news. So anyway, any any decision by
net Yahoo to to fully withdraw from Gaza, uh you know, in turn
over governance to someone else, is going to leave the far right minister's parties
in which are represent religious Zionism, and I think the other one is called
you who did you? Who did it? It'll cause those parties to exit
the coalition, and that's what's kind of hanging over his head. And then
so so they can convere and small to bridge, they come tearing out of
the wings, right and they demand that net Yahoo fire Gallant. Right,
you can't make a shut up calling him a trojan horse. All right,
this is you know, this is a guy who is again national hero.
But the thing is, who can't fire Gallant? He's you know, he's
he's not as strong as he was when he's he's fired previous defense ministers and
he's you know, counting Gallant before he's fired three he's but he's he's got
no choice not only to endure this kind of revolt, but to make a
decision. You know, I can't. It's going to be really interesting,
really interesting to see what happens because I can't see Netno who making a decision.
I can see him just keeping, you know, trying to edge it
along and edge along. And so that puts the ball back into Gallard's court.
But what's you know what I mean, this isn't even mutiny on the
king. Mutiny I mean, I mean mutiny on what I said, the
king mutinyry, mutiny on the bounty or something. But it's I mean,
it's not like you're taking over a ship, You're how how are they going
to seize power against Netnia as well? That's really what it's going to come
down to, because I think it will come down to that. And and
Innaho is in a corner because you know, other little KUD members not connected
with the Defense establishment have come out of the woodwork and said, hey,
yeah, you know what, Yeah, I warned him about Mars too.
And I've been I've been saying for a long period of time that you know
that we needed to come up with a solution or for Gaza anyway, Paul
said, you guys, I'm not laughing about the situation that it's Yeah,
it is going to be interesting to see what happens. I wonder how much
of this is being pushed publicly as well too, too. I mean,
as usual sway, public opinion one side or the other and maybe force one
hand or the other, you know, publicly. Yeah, solutely, Jason,
that is That's what I was kind of hinting at earlier, is a
public opinion manipulation of public opinion via you know, leaked memos or open off
but off the record comments by senior government officials or generals are fairly common.
But you know, these things gather momentum, and it really looks as though
that the you know, I don't want to use the analogy of rats leaving
a ship, but you know, it does look as though people are running
for the exits a little bit, distancing themselves from netting Yahoo, gotcha.
And you know, and and there was something else that I wrote it down
here. Gallant came up with some on Wednesday night, okay, the day
after Hamas will only be achieved through the rule of Palestinian elements. That for
an alternative to Harmas. Unfortunately, no such plan has been brought for debate,
and worse yet, no alternative has been presented in its place. Ah.
So you know, I mean, that's that's that's pretty unequivocal. And
and he has said openly that he has no problem that not only no problem,
that he thinks the only alternative to Hamas is a rule of Palestinian elements,
whether that is a Palestinian authority or there has been talk of turning governor
the responsibility of governance over to a coalition of influential Palestinian families who you know,
may have the trust and support of the population, certainly more so than
either the Palestinian authority or Harmas. So you know there are he's he's open
minded enough to look at all these alternatives that involve Palestinians running either of the
internal I mean run running the government. So and that is yeah, that
that is absolutely anathema to two segments of the Israeli population. But what's going
to be interesting to your point, Jason, is how far would the public
manipulation go. Is there going to be a point where just the sheer pressure
you know, not violence but or read of violence, but just kind of
this sheer political social pressure for Natnia who to go, well, you know,
we will force him to do so, to resign. I mean,
there's already demonstrations in the streets and now open revolt in this cabinet. What
more do you need other than to be physically forced out of power? And
we all hope that it you know, it doesn't come to that. But
you know, in the meantime, the the campaign continues. It while one
you know, and an entire division is focused now on Rafa and you'll see
that the you know, this time they are ceiling the Philadelphia cradle that cuts
off Gaza from Egypt. Hence that incident the other day, d you you
mentioned when we were chatting about this before and for the benefit of our listeners,
the incident was a shooting incident involving both Israelis and Egyptians, resulting in
the death of an Egyptian soldier. This last week, nothing released publicly.
What what I you know, what I am hearing is that it was a
released a you know this, this is what is coming through the IDEF,
that it was a kind of a cross fire incident. The IDEF thought that
they had received shots, reported they received shots return fire. The Egyptians thought
that they are under fire. You know, you've seen this play out anyway
in our own forces. Unfortunately, so essentially a blue one bloom, but
still, you know, it contributes to considerable tension between the Israelis and the
Egyptians, but they are they are united for the moment on ensuring that that
border is sealed and that no one from Hamas or even the population of Gaza
crosses that border. The Egyptians have so many problems of their own and the
Sinai. But within within Egypt, there are mounting tensions because this the Egypt
is being hammered by problems in the Red Sea. Of all countries, Egypt
is is you know, the country that's suffering worse. So Egypt in turn
has been trying to make has been making some money on the situation in Gaza.
For instance, the price of getting an AID truck from Ararish or Alexandria,
the price that has to be paid to the Egyptian government is something like
five thousand dollars per truck, you know, as opposed to pre war as
one thousand dollars a truck. So there's like a you know, five time
markup on these on these transit fees surge pricing essentially for fucking humanitarian need yep,
same thing for our customs and so you know, but still the Egyptian
economy is suffering, and of course the population is as amped tops as an
error population and indeed some Western populations throughout the world over the situation in Gaza.
So you know, the Egyptian military, of course, it's in military
rule there. They're just holding they're calling the lead on a simmering pot.
The Israelis suspect that the Egyptian army is heavily infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood and
that this occurred under Morsy during the one year Morsey was in power prior to
cisi overthrowing. And Morsey was a Muslim Brotherhood leader who was who was elected
to power in Egypt before being overthrown by a coup. But then in any
case, accorney of the Israelis, he has heavily infiltrated the Egyptian army with
Muslim Brotherhood, which is going to be a problem if that is true for
Cisis more so than the Israelis. I mean, remember of the history of
the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, it's been one of violent revolt or action followed
by incredibly, incredibly brutal repression. It was the Muslim Brotherhood who killed Amasada
in nineteen eighty one during a military review, you know, the reviewing troops.
I don't know if you've seen the video of it, but you know,
they yeah, jump off one of the you know, the vehicle in
the drive past and kill them and yeah, those were and so you know,
so there's there's all kinds of domestic tensions on both sides of the border.
That means, you know, have resulted in this kind of this fragile
agreement between the Israelis and the Egyptians. But certainly no, not a lot
of goodwill. Pause paused there for a moment. D Any any any questions,
guys or Oh yeah, sorry, sorry, go on. I was
gonna talk about the video that was not leaked but posted by Netanyahu's son.
Oh yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, Jayson, Yeah, just outline
that forever. Yeah. So, briefly, speaking of public opinion swaying public
opinion, uh so, on Saturday, the IDF authorities uh stated that they
were going to launch an investor formal investigation into a video that was posted on
to Telegraph by Netahu's son, Yeah, heir. And in the video,
it's shows an alleged IDF soldier and fatigues holding a rifle. He's wearing a
black mask, and he's standing in what appears to be a blown blown out
building, rubble graffiti on the walls behind him, all that, and so
in the video he says we the reserve soldiers do not intend to hand over
the keys to any Palestinian authority, adding that they would not see power in
gods. That's Amas or Fatah, and then he so this is being addressed
to net Yahoo, but that he is specifically talking about Galant and addressing him
Gallant directly. He said, you cannot win a war. Resign, you
cannot win the war. You cannot command us. We will listen to one
leader. And it is not the Minister of Defense, It is not the
chief of staff. It is the Prime Minister. Think carefully to whom you
intend to give the keys after this, And so later in the video he
told Gallant to change your record, change the record and understand that we want
to win, and or we will all go only with the Prime Minister,
only with whoever decides that we should win. We will follow him. Here
I tell you, did you want a military coup? And then he goes
on to say, we're the reservist who can no longer return home. We
will show you what a decision is, we will show you what a victory
is, and we will show you how real Jews win. So you just
go again. You just can't make this up, can you? I mean
you Gallant? And and that may have been what prompted you know, one
of the things that prompted Gallant to to to do what he did, because
this is absolutely absurd. So first of all, yeah yeah, oh yeah,
net and Yahoo. Uh isn't even in Israel. In fact, he's
not far from where I am now. He's in Miami, living in a
luxury condo, where he has been since before the war, and hasn't you
know, does not hasn't voluntive to go back to Israel to do anything else,
you know. And the Israeli papers have written about this, even even
the you know, right wing ones, showing both you know, I mean
the paperst love doing this, you know, photographs of his apartment, the
tennis courts, spa game lounge, private cinema, wind sellar, cigar um,
you know, I mean, anyone who's been to Jack's house will recognize.
But so now he comes, now he emerges right and and this and
produces the video. The IDEF, of course, went ape shit launched an
investigation of its own, citing all the violations of various rules. Jason,
I thought, you know, I said earlier that I'd heard that the guy
in the video wasn't even a reservist, you know, which is almost hard
to imagine. If he isn't you know, in Israel and Israeli. But
I can't find, you know, I don't know now where I got that
information, so it could be it could be bogus. But regardless, it
doesn't really matter whether he's a reservist or not. This was clearly a staged
video for the benefit of his father, and but just the fact that he
thought he could get away with it really blows my mind. Yeah, and
he even said he made a Yeah, I made a separate post on telegram
and said, in light of the reactions to the reserve video circling on the
networks, let's sort out the question of what a military rebellion is. An
army that announces that, in times of dispute, will only obey the government
and the prime minister, it's not a rebellion. But on the contrary,
is an army that obeys the law. Hey, you know what I've written
about that. You know, when you're compelling when it is your duty to
disobey orders. But no, that doesn't fall into that category. But you
can see how you know, we talk when I say we, but I
mean from time to time, there's somewhat hysterical speculation in the States about the
prospects of the civil war. But I can tell you that the divisions in
Israel feel far, far more raw when you're there than they ever do here.
I mean, part of that's a function of geography, but part of
it's a function of the times. But it's also a function of polarization,
and not left right polarization, but polarization of issues. You know, the
day and this day after in Gaza is one. What to do about the
hostages is another. But yeah, you know, there was an unprecedented breakdown
in discipline from government point of view in the military back in March when Netnya,
who was fiddling around trying to change they trying to get essentially better control,
greater control, governmental control over the judiciary, right, and there was
army, a military pushback, popular pushback on that, and the military took
front and center stage. There were reports, you know, of pilots not
reporting to duty. Gallant himself resigned and Letnahu backed down. So all of
this happened even before the war. The divisions were were there. The war
has exacerbated them, and I think Gamar, you know, Rafa and uh
and and this question of the day after has has brought them to a to
a crescendo. HM and and I think you know what all this is going
on, the question is what's her mass doing? Now? What's what's happened
to Hamas? And I've you know, I've read, I wrote an article
about this just you know, just yesterday. But if you look at you
know, let's let's throw aside all this just talk about what her mask was
seen here, here, her mass was seen there. Let's just look at
you know, hamas leadership, infrastructure, the fighters, you know, their
their units and their ideology. And I'm not going to you know all you
guys, but you know, bottom line leadership. The Israelis have they say,
killed one hundred and thirteen of Hamas's leaderships, you know, mid ranking
guys. Where the BBC didn't challenge the claim about leadership, it challenged the
names on the list because it was finding like, you know, found the
name of the Janeta, found the name for I mean, not a journalist.
It found duplicatet names and all of this, so the list may not
be accurate. The Israelis again claimed that it represents seventy to eighty percent of
the masses leadership. But I would argue whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant.
Because of the way that HAMAS is structured, all of those guys will
have been replaced seamlessly. You know, Hamas. You're seeing IDF briefs.
You know, the Hamas referred to by it as though it's military structure,
brigades and battalions, and indeed HAMAS uses that terminology. It uses brigades for
you know, for regional organization, and it uses battalions just kind of a
loose as a loose method of authority. But most of all the succession of
command. Right, So someone does get killed, they get replaced quickly.
So the whole structure is designed to replace people in a hurry. So whether
or not they killed one hundred and thirteen are these people makes little difference.
And you know, of the top three, the three guys who who organized
and who planned and executed seven October, only one Muhammed Isha I'm going to
mispronounce his name as w who was killed. Just as last week, only
one of them has been killed. So leadership are pretty much intact. You
know, infrastructure, you don't have to take it from me, you know,
I can just tell you about Israeli targeting techniques. They target tunnel shafts,
right, they have to. I mean, it's the most visible,
detectable part of the tunnel. It's the most vulnerable. The thing is that
the way the tunnels are structured in Gaza, the shaft is insulated by an
outbra the only thing I can call it is another kind of an outshoot from
the main tunnel. So the shaft doesn't even lead to the main tunnel,
and the main tunnel will have you know, maybe four or five shafts,
and the tunnels on the tunnel framework, which is one single tunnel with all
those offshoots, is not connected to another tunnel. So you see, you've
destroyed a shaft, and you've destroyed a shaft, and that's how the Israelis
are reporting tunnel destruction. You haven't you haven't even destroyed the entire tunnel,
let alone touched the network by hitting that shaft. So when the Israelis say
that they have destroyed four hundred tunnels or whatever, that means four hundred strikes
on shafts in which they could see they've destroyed just to you know, close
the shaft. You know there's an and there was an expert quoted in Israeli
papers this week. I forget her name, doctor at one of the main
think tanks, but her area of expertise is an underground warfare, and she
says, in her words, it would be impossible to destroy that framework of
tunnels, her mass's framework of tunnels. And so you know the most important
of those are the tunnels that go that connect ans in to the outside world
to Egypt, that go under the Philadelphia crossing, and those have not been
destroyed and are not being held right now, although the Israelis are sitting on
top of them. So you'll see that when you're talking about destruction of buildings
above ground, and you're talking about destroying har Maas's inventory of ordinance, which
Israel has been you know, quite successful in doing. If you haven't touched
Maas's means of replenishment, then it matters little what else you have messed up.
So a lot of destruction, but I would argue that very little of
it to Hamas's critical infrastructure. And then you've got and then you've got the
fighters, right units or fighters. What I've said, it makes no sense
to talk about. But below battalion you are talking about twos and threes.
All right, the largest, one of the largest attacks, infiltration attacks in
the entire war, and it tied down a battalion for three days. Was
conducted by six guys, right, and I heard that from repeatedly brigade command
of battalion, and that was one of the largest attacks. These guys are
operating in one in two threes. Even once you know RPG minds I DSH
you destroy something exactly exactly. So so that is why, uh, the
Israeli, the IDF is so focused on a body count. You know,
one one senior general commented to the papers, you know, we've become Westmoreland,
which you know, and focused on that. But but that But the
problem is that for the intelligence guys, they're like, look, you you
can talk when you want about destroying brigades or battalions, but it doesn't mean
shit. The only way to measure the effect you're having on him is to
kill his people, because they because his those those little groups are his main
component of combat power. And the way to hurt them somebody to kill people.
That's the argument, and that's why it's been reported. So then take
a look at you know, before the war, the Israelis said that Hamas
had around thirty thousand guys. By that, I mean they made thirty thousand
guys in Gaza who were being paid to do Hamas things most of the time,
right, full time more or less full time fighters. They claim to
have killed thirteen thousand. Now, if you look at total figures, that
those killed thirty five thousand something. And yes, the figures come from the
Ghazan Health Ministry HA mask control. But you know those two of the UN
not just the UN, but independent there's a UK ANDNGO tracking casualties. But
anyway, there isn't a lot of dispute about the number of figures, percentage
of those women and children, There isn't a great of dispute, you know,
two thirds, just over two thirds as they So my point is that
if two thirds of thirty five thousand, there's you know, twenty four thousand.
So even if every single military age male who was killed in Gaza was
a member of her Maas, that's eleven thousand guys, okay, which is
not the thirteen thousand. So that might be a little steep when they say
they killed thirteen thousand people. But on the other hand, you know,
they probably incapacitated two to three times that many, right, her wounds and
everything else. So it's not unreasonable to say that they could well have you
know, for one tenth and purposes destroyed her Mass's personnel, you know,
destroyed they killed more than killed or incapacitated some Okay, does that mean her
Mass is done? Though? You know, I mean, how how deep
has the ideology seeped into the population. I mean, some say that the
ideology was already deeply steeped in the population from decades of being holed up in
Gaza together, right, But the question is, you know, has what
has happened since seven October increased that support or reduced it to zero? And
I would say it's very unlikely that it's reduced it to zero, and that
ideology maybe her Mass's most deadly legacy and the greatest yet and the greatest threat
yet to Israel. Yeah, all right, we got we got one more.
I mean yeah, by itself, it seems like a completely feudal enterprise
to be trying to do this. We got one thing that came in just
before we started from The Guardian about a former Israeli spice chief threatned the International
Criminal Court prosecutor over war crimes inquiry that was prior to October seventh, and
like the kickoff of all this, Jay, you wanted to talk about this
a bit. Yeah, so this is a classic. We talked in like
I think one of our first two episodes about motivations for committing espionage and which
is mice m i ce. One of those is coercion, and it seems
that in this case that was the the goal. So the X massade chief
yosse Cohen, it was alleged that he headed up himself personally a operation to
course the International Courts prosecutor I'm gonna screw her name up fatal Ben Soda into
uh dropping any pursuit of you know, any kind of charges against military personnel
or higher ranking political figures. So the operation was like first, it started
out kind of like, you know, whispers in her ear about that this
may you know, it would be in her best interest to let this kind
of thing go. But according to her, it got increasingly hostile and persistent.
And most intel ops don't normally start that way. It's you know,
it's usually pretty or I should say they don't normally start full steam. It
usually ramps up that way depending on the intell agency. But these veil threats
eventually got to like an old school mob style. Hey, it's a dangerous
world out there, got it, you know, why don't you let us
protect you, you and your family. So that was the backhanded way of
issuing a threat that you never know what's going to happen. You know,
it's a bad world out there, a lot of wolves at the door,
so let us protect you. And then eventually it would be, well,
we're protecting you in exchange for that, why don't you back off a little
bit? So sometimes that works, a lot of times it doesn't. And
I'm gonna say this in my own little bubble that I worked in. I
do not speak for the US government or Intel agencies when we say this we
don't use or we're taught that we don't use coercion. I'm not saying that
in you know, way above me that someone hasn't done it or authorized it.
And I'm sure it was done a long time ago. But most of
the time it doesn't work. It's just like, you know, if I
beat you long enough, you're gonna tell me exactly what I want to hear,
whether that's the truth, or not so coersion can it can go one
way or the other. And so that's why most Western intel agencies don't use
it. So like you'd said, you you said earlier, it happened before
October seventh, and uh, Cohen, I don't know what his influence is
now. I do know I'd read that he had been a rising political star.
Uh some political scheme. But Andy, maybe you know a little better
than me what I don't. I don't. But actually I've got a good
at question totally off off, not off topic. But going back to your
comment about coercion, So so is blackmail regarded as a former coercion? Yeah,
uh, certainly. I mean, but that seems to be when when
we look at motivation for for for essentially US traders, right who turn over
what is isn't money? That is that? That is the usually from what
I've studied, Uh, it looks like usually it's money and ego going hand
in hand most time. Look at Hanson, Robert Hanson. He needed the
money, but he also was one hundred percent sure that he could get away
with it because he was a smart guy, you know, very very smart
guy. He knew his job, he knew the ins and out of it.
So he knew how to get around all of it. But those two
things his ego and need of money, although at a certain point he really
didn't need it, it just became a thing overtook him. And plus he
got you know, well I shouldn't say him, but others got family involved.
So once you start adding those loose ends, as they say in something's
gonna go wrong. So Corson, at least from a US standpoint, doesn't.
I don't know of any incidents, and I'm sure someone can tell me
in the comments. Ideology. I think more played into it. Towards the
end of the First Golf War and the beginning of the War on Terror.
You had people who had been radicalized, and so eventually, you know,
if they were in that position to give information, they started doing that,
but mostly was money and ego, and they usually go hand in hand,
just like corigion and compromise usually go hand in hand. So yeah, that's
really good. So coercion and compromise. So I would say the initial for
the US, for US traders, essentially he'd sell secrets motivated by greed.
But regardless of motive, after that initial contact, there's always coercion. Yeah,
right, and even and even for US case officer after that initial hook,
after the initial transfer, there's the there's implicit coercion. Yeah, and
if he doesn't intend it, even if you don't intend it, yeah,
because yeah, part of what your your relationship with that recruitment is, uh,
is you want to ensure them that their safety is your priority. You
know, so you have your training, but you also want to impart on
them that you're, uh, you're gonna use your training to keep them and
their family safe and uh, you know, their jobs safe and all that
stuff. So that's the implied coercion. It's like, Okay, well,
now we've you've taken a little money, you've give me a little information.
Even if they haven't taken money yet. It's like you're not going to actually
come out and say it, but it's like you just took a step down
that road. Now you know, now I have to keep you safe.
So that's always in the back of their head, like, you know,
you don't come out and say it, but it's implied and in the back
of their head they're thinking, well, shit, I just gave them information,
so now I have to you know, rely on this and now I
have to keep it going. And some do somewhere down the road or early
on, say you know what, I'll take my chances. I'm not doing
it, and okay, you know, here's your little bit of money or
whatever, thanks you know, for you know, for working with us.
But some people just eventually something else takes over, whether it's I think it
moves out of coercion after a while, and it becomes the money is great,
the medicine for my child is great, the promise, possible promise of
being bought to the US, you know, all those things start to take
over. Whereas when you have somewhere like maybe the Chinese MSS or something like
that, where it's like that guy's in a hotel or that female's in a
hotel and they come walking out of the closet with a camera like, hey
gotcha. You know, I think after a while that fear, i'm not
gonna say it starts to wear off. But because they become desensitized to it,
and that's why a lot of them at certain points just choose to defect.
They just choose to well, I'll take my chances to get the hell
out, you know. So yeah, and I know This may sound,
you know, a little bit hokey to some, but it's fair to say
too they think that they're in the for the US at least, I mean,
only that I can speak of. But when a case officer establishes that
relationship, trust has to be involved, absolving trust, and and that protection
physical protection of sources is central to for instance, the agency's ethos. Now
you know, regardless of whatever happened in the past, it is absolutely central
and to each case officers, you know, you're never I mean, it's
it's almost it's like it goes beyond attorney client privilege, right because people's clients
are at stake, and it's very and the whole you know, the ability
to the institution to do what it does as well depends on absolutely yeah.
And that's why as you get to an early point, as early as possible
in the relationship, you want to move that relationship from public whereas hey,
I just met this person at a embassy ball or you know, on the
tennis court as quickly as possible, but as safely as possible, move that
into a semi and then a fully clandestine relationship behind closed doors, you know,
and at every meeting you are reiterating that their safety is paramount at paramount,
and that you are doing everything in your power to keep them safe,
which behooves them to listen to what you're saying to them and heed your instructions,
those kind of things, because I always you know, it was taught
to me, and I always say that usually depend you know, depending on
the situation that the country you're working in, the most you're gonna get I'm
gonna get, you're gonna get is you know, thrown in jail. They're
gonna you know, if you get caught, they're gonna, oh, we're
gonna keep you here forever, you know, blah blah blah, that kind
of thing. And behind the scenes, state department, depending on your cover,
is working on getting you back a trade whatever it is. You get
kicked out of country, your persona on gratti, you don't come back,
but you emphasize to them you get caught, it's your life or your freedom,
So it behooves you. So think about now on the front end of
that, if you just coerce somebody into doing it, Hey, I have
these you know, I've got these photos of you with this prostitute. I'm
sure your job doesn't want to find out, blah blahah whatever. Well,
situations change. What if six months from now that guy and his wife or
that woman and her husband are getting a divorce and they don't give a shit
that you have the papers anymore, the pictures anymore. So now your coresion
is just fizzled out. So I think it's easier to go with the money
and the ego and possibly the ideology as well. Yeah, ego is a
big one. Yeah, yes, it is just finished that just reading the
book Fat Leonard, by the way, I recommend it to everyone. And
you want to talk about Unfortunately Fat Leonard was not a foreign agent because he
would have been He would have wrecked havoc. Havoc not just on US seventh
Fleet, but on US security. But you want to talk about reed and
ego as motivations. Ninety one admirals were caught up in the investigation. And
you know, when the view of many and many more should I mean a
number of them should have gone to prison, only one ended up going to
prison in the end. But when you read it, it's incredible. You
know, our peers, navy captains, a marine colonel just making idiots themselves
for you know, party favors, prostitutes, sham pain arties, but most
of them having their REGOs stroked. Absolutely, It's just unbelievable. It is.
That was great, all right, So choke Andy's ego a little bit.
Check out his book. It's a link is in the description. It's
a great book, award winning, it's my pocket book. I already had
to spend a night at your house. Don't forget to like and subscribe if
you're listening to us on audio, rate and review it best thing you could
do. Also share it, tell a friend about it, and our patreon
Patreon dot com, slash the teamhouse you can find Andy. All the links
are in the description, from his Twitter to his book, to his LinkedIn
to his sub stack Jason, No, not happening, and uh I gotta
shout out. I got a shout out real quick. Uh okay, I
want to try and get this message to the second Battalion Role Rifles the CEO,
Colonel Nick, thank you so much for just an awesome time last Friday.
I got to speak to the regiment and I'll tell you what. If
you are at all intrigued by elite forces, then then read up on the
gurkhas most extraordinary group of individuals and there remains so and it was my great
privilege and honor to be able to talk to them. So yeah, roll
Gokha rifles, Hurrah, whatever they say, I are go, karlimh