What is krack alakin Hardwar Knox listeners, I am Damn Valley coming at you,
this time without my fantabulous co host Adam Promo. I am as always
super excited to welcome back good friend and Bleacher Report colleague Grant Hughes to the
podcast. Follow him on Twitter at gt Underscore. Hughes spelled exactly as it
sounds. We are here for our second annual Yes, it's an annual podcast
now. Truth or Trash is basically rebranded fact or Fiction where we go through
some takeaways that could be sustainable after the first week week or so of the
season. We are recording this before Thursday night's games, so anything that happens
in the four tilts that will be taking place these days could be very outdated.
They might age poorly by the time you listen to this. But we
went through a bunch of different topics, covered a ton of teams here.
It was great. Check the bio for times as if you're looking to jump
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Let's get to playing some truth or trash with Bleacher Reports Grant News. Grant,
I hope you enjoyed your six ish weeks off from making a hard one
Knox appearance after we went through those report card grades for the offseason. Thank
you for coming back after putting in those hours and hours of work on those
how the hell are you doing to start the regular season, but also more
importantly just in life in general, it's yeah, it's too early to tell.
I feel like that that that answer works for like everything we're gonna talk
about, but we're gonna do it anyway. I'm good, I'm glad.
I'm glad we have games back. I'm glad to talk to you, and
I hope that all of these are takes today age really poorly so we can
come back and apologize and talk about why we were so wrong about everything.
Look, we're taking a chance because we're recording this late morning your time on
a Thursday. This we'll go out on a Friday. Literally everything we say
could just be outdated by the time. Yeah, that's how really it is.
Rebranded Fact or Fiction though, is one of my favorite podcasts through at
the beginning of the year, We were clever and we call the Truth or
Trash. This is the second annual Truth or Trash podcast. Do you feel
Do you feel alive after just no hearing the annual? You know what we
gotta do is look back at what we thought in the first annual at some
point, like maybe it'll I'll have to coach I didn't even think of that.
It'll be the mea Culpa podcast. We'll just apologize to one another for
being so stupid. I'll make a sheet for this one, so when we
do the third annual one, we can easily look back. I'm confident all
my tapes will be spot on because I went twenty two an eight in over
under his last year twenty two eight. That's very impressive, and you were
early on the Suns, so you deserve credit for that. I might have
stayed on the Sun's bandwagon too long, though you could argue, well,
well, they were my championship pick this year, just like they were my
championship pick last year. I don't know if I was just doubling down out
of stubbornness, but maybe we should start there. Yeah, it's time to
panic in Phoenix. Oh wait, I'm gonna This is the one thing I
want to preface this is we're four or five games into the season for all
these teams, which is clearly too early. But at the same time,
we continue to see these studies where it's like the first ten games or the
first twenty games are very representative of what's to come for the rest of the
year, and so it's like, if it's really the point where ten or
twelve games, is that predictive? Like we're almost halfway there, So is
it really too early to be talking about this stuff right right? No,
I have to I'm gonna I'm gonna parse your question as as finely as I
can because it's the only way. So it's trash that it's that the sun
should panic. But as as we're recording this, they're one in three.
Chris Paul looks bad, Booker looks bad, Jake Crowler looks bad. I
think Booker of the three has the highest fieldual percentage, and it's like forty,
it's under forty one percent, like forty point seven. Paul's under forty,
Crowder's under forty. None of them are making It's just like they've been
bad. And I think part of the reason, obviously, part of the
main reason I'm I'm they shouldn't panic, is all of the principles from last
year's very good team are back and like that, you know, it just
it seems to me like unless Chris if Chris Paul looked like he aged ten
years and was just like, oh my god, this isn't the same guy,
or if Booker looked, you know, like a different guy. I
think I think Booker's worn down. I think all I think we are always
like we underrate, uh, how hard it is to come back with the
short offseason after like a pressurized long playoff run. I think that's a factor.
I think the Eiden thing Aiden has been pretty good, but the Aiden
thing is a factor with his contract and his discontent. So Roberts being accused
of races incredibly accused, but the report hasn't come out yet that they're not
addressed on the podcast. But that was the news cycle has gotten weirder where
I don't I want to, I need to. We need to see the
report. Still knowing what we know about him. This does not surprise me,
I would say. But also now we're at the point where like news
is being broken about news that has yet to be broken. It's just,
yeah, that was a weird recal. It was like the Sun's responded to
a report that there was gonna be a report, which is just like,
so clearly they know they're aware of what's coming. I hate the idea of
scooping a report that hasn't been published yet when you didn't add anything to it.
It was Jordan Schultz. I don't even know who he's with right now.
I know he works with the pull Up pod that' CJ McCollum, that
CJ McCollums podcast, But like, I don't I know. I think there
was sentiments. I heard a bunch of sentiments that were like, oh,
who cares that they scoop ESPN And it's like we didn't add anything to it,
and it gave the Sons a chance to get out in front of it,
where it's like like that that feels like very agenda driven, where now
you're giving Phoenix time to prepare and get out and look, I thought Phoenix's
statements by and large looked terrible on it at the same time, like like
I don't know, like you're I hate I don't like the idea when you
don't have an actual story or anything to tack onto it other than the existence
of a story that's yet to be published. I hate that idea of scooping
it because I think it deprives us of getting a more authentic reaction from how
the Suns would handle it. And just now we're wondering, like, well,
how bad is this without knowing how bad is this based off what Phoenix
has said. And look, I think the Sun's come off worse for having
addressed it like earlier on, but it gave them it Like this almost felt
as a This felt like a favor to Robert Sarber, the fact that it
was that it came out before the report itself actually came out. Yeah,
I mean, I think, I you know, we're kind of I'm sure
it wasn't the basis of your question, but but if you are going to
panic about the Suns, I think it's really I guess it's reasonable to no
seriously to price in because everybody's known forever that Sarver's reputation is not good in
terms of his willingness to spend, in terms of, you know, personally,
in terms like I think Kevin Arnovitz maybe last year, the year before
they all run together, did the Long Act, you know, the goat
in the like there's what about the lady? Do you remember the video where
she was like he's so like tight pocketed that he squeaks when he walks or
something. They were this older lady at like a town hall or whatever.
Was that that clip was just ingrained in my mind so accurate by the way,
but if you're gonna worry about the Suns, I think the reason you
worry is is someho who always says it. Ownership is the biggest competitive advantage
or disadvantage in sports because it's the be all, end all. It determines
the culture, it determines the willingness to spend, it determines everything. So
if you're going to panic about them, sarvers a good reason to. But
Jenn I would just yeah, yeah, I'd button it up by saying I'm
concerned if if if, for example, if I'm you and I thought that
they were going to win the West, there be a title to you,
I'm concerned about that. I'm not gonna panic like oh my god, we're
gonna be in the plane, or like you know, nothing, nothing.
It doesn't rise to that level, even if just throw out the sample size
stuff, because just based on what you know, based on what we've seen,
I don't think any and their problems rise to that level. I might
have just been too hopped up on caffeine and Kyrie going full galaxy brain and
seeing like an opening to be like, oh, the nets aren't a formality
anymore. I'll stand by the pick because I'm stubborn, I'm so close to
being able to do a victory. How insufferable would I have been on social
media at the Sun's won the title. I get ninety nine point nine percent
my predictions wrong. But if that's the one that I would have hit,
God damn, I'm I'm gonna say trash here too, just because so you
mentioned the long playoff run den Devin Booker plays in the Olympics. Then he
has COVID, which is also not being talked about enough. I find it
very hard to believe that Jay Crowder is gonna be like more of a floater
specialist than a three point shooting specialist all year long. I already mentioned some
of the percentages are gonna come up if I was, and I am concerned
just in general, like Chris paul Is, he's thirty six, these thirty
SIGs like that that has to matter. I don't think he's going to be
shooting, you know, forty two point nine percent from two forever, like
those those in between jumpers are going to start to fall. I think if
there's something, and I think by and large they are the fact that their
offense has been according to Cleaning last about average despite like laboring through all this,
that's probably a good harbinger for them. The other thing is I think
eight and specifically has by and large people can talk about his involvement on offense.
I think one of the biggest The two biggest issues with that are the
way that adjustments are made on big, big game, but also just when
you're dependent on other people for your offense, and that's the role of the
big man. I'm not faulting eating for that. You're gonna be a little
bit more prone to too fluctuations. But if I was going to be concerned
about something and I thought this was an overblown concern last year, where are
like, oh, they don't have enough conventional rim pressure, they don't get
to the free throw line enough. And maybe the free throw line stuff doesn't
matter this year more than ever because like fouls are down across the board,
the way that the games are being refereed like that certainly matters. But if
you're not going to shoot like an astronomical clip for mid range and your and
defenses are going to be just more keyed in on how they're going to cover
your your pick and rolls, and you get into your spots there something needs
to give where it's like they need someone other than eighton or like slash to
val McGee slash abdul Nator to put real pressure on the rim, or they
need someone to actually hit, like off the dribble threes with the semblance of
consistency, or someone who gets the foul line at a supremely high clip.
If there might need to be a broadening dynamic given to their offense. At
the same time, their offense has been the average, and it's their defense
that you look at where they're twenty seventh and points allowed per possession right now,
that's just really not something that's going to hold. There are going to
be you know, you said to correct you if you're talking about shooting percentages
a lot, but opponents are shooting forty six point five percent out above to
break threes against them. That's not going to hold forever. Yeah, so
there will be some normalization there. But if I was concerned about anything,
it might be their offense in that regard. Yeah, and they aren't just
the button button that one up, like they're a weird offensive team. And
you know, we joked during the playoffs last year that like, man,
they just make all their mid rangers and playoff defenses just conceived mid rangers.
What a funny what a funny coincidence, Like, of course they're going to
be a good playoff you know, performer, and maybe you know that's just
that's a weird way to play. There's a reason a lot of teams don't
play that way. And so if Chris Paul isn't going to make every elbow
jumper and if Devin Booker is not going to be such a bucket, you
know on two point jumpers, like, yeah, the offense might be an
issue, but I totally agree with the defense. There's no scenario where the
defense is bottom three, let alone like outside, I don't know what I'd
say. They feel like a top ten defense to me, So yeah,
I'm not worried about that side either. Also hat tip to the Timeline podcasts
Mike V. Hill for the Abdilmador rim pressure joke where Abulnador's not gotten there
a ton this year, but he was just one of the best players on
the team at getting to the rim for them last year. But that is
just I always thought that was overblown last year, and now I'm just wondering,
like Okay, Well if they don't shoot like a tillion percent from mid
range, or what if Chris Paul does fall off? Or what if Devin
Booker like Yo Jason team had using Inhaler ever getting COVID last year? Just
what if there's a what if this? Even if it's just this season,
like what if there's an actual drop off there? Then I might be just
more concerned with the I guess the call them like secondary dynamics of their offense.
Yeah, that's fair, that's fair. Do you want me to throw
you another one or do you ever want to throw at me? Well,
I'm gonna throw one of yours at you because I'm curious about your thoughts,
especially on this one. Truth or trash. The Lakers should stop playing Anthony
Davis at center. Yeah, I want, I want to say trash,
but I'm almost gonna have to go truth because so when you look at the
lineup data on this, it's when when you first look at it, and
when I first looked at it, I was fascinated. And then you start
to think about it and you're like, no, you know what, that
that makes a lot of sense. Their defense with Anthony Davis at the five,
this year is allowing one hundred and eighteen points prone hundred possessions, and
their defense with him at the four is one or three point one points per
one hundre possessions. It's just a difference between being elite and really shitty.
When you play Anthony Davis at the four, it has come with an offensive
trade off. Just that being said, because you gave up look letting Crusoe
walk, trading Kuzma and KCP. I think those were three of your five
most important defenders last year and arguably and you have Lebron and a d or
the other two, how are you going to go about preserving the defensive integrity
this year? And yeah, there's probably some noise in the eighty at the
five lineups. Opponents per cleaning the glass are shooting sixty eight point one percent
at the rim when he's at the five, but they're also getting to the
rim less when he's at the five. And where you're really seeing the difference
is when you have another big on the court, if it's Jordan or Howard,
not only are you better at protecting the rim, yes they are,
technically more attempts are coming from there, but opponents are shooting just much worse
at the rim. During those minutes, they're shooting fifty eight point one percent.
They're also shooting terrible clips from floater range, from mid range because you
have that extra pressure there. And then Davis is able to fly around a
little bit more when he is the four, And I think that's important to
a Lakers team where if you play Davis at the five, who is going
to be your power forward in a majority of those minutes? And I will
look at the line up data and tell you it's going to be Lebron James,
fine, or it's going to be Carmelo Anthony absolutely not fine, And
more of the I fall in the camp of more, Hey, let's not
overthink Mellow giving you buckets while shooting, you know, conceptually very efficiently from
three, Like I think there's value in a player who could do that when
you just don't have enough defensive talent around him and now you're moving, you're
changing. Gave us his defensive role, and I think Davis is a five.
I want to make that clear. But the way the Lakers are built,
I'm gonna say truth, like until maybe once you're healthy and Trevor Rees
is back, But the fact that I'm also talking about a thirty or fifty
seven year old Trevor Reza being this important to the Lakers defense, maybe clues
us into, hey, you're just gonna have to deal with it. The
minutes with Russbrook on the court, it gets rough. But I don't know
that they have the defensive personnel to play Davis at the five and not put
just so much pressure on him that it becomes untenable. And there's no guarantee
based off on your offensive personnel where yeah, when it's Lebron and Davis,
like, maybe you find a way for those minutes to be a decidedly net
positive. But unless they're gonna very substantially outperform the lineups with Davis playing next
to Howard or for Jordans, you should probably just lean towards the ladder because
why put the extra wear and tara Davis when every time he hits the ground
it looks like he suffered a season ending injury. And also Twitter, Yeah,
I'm that guy who he he leads that he has led the league.
I thought about I always thought this on the Pelicans, he's led the league
in oh shit, his season is over. Moments that that one minute later,
he's in the game again. He leads the league and that that that's
that he's always Lebron comes pretty close to that too, except he's good.
Tell he's like play acting. Yeah, he's very authentic. Yeah. So
I'm glad you had the lineup data because you know, I think it's compelling.
I think for me and maybe this is reductive, but but for the
Lakers and for a handful of teams that I just have to look at them
through the prism of what's your best five in the last five minutes of a
close playoff game, because in theory, that's that's the those are the minutes
that they care about. Now you you have the factor in like, is
Anthony Davis going to be healthy and upright for those last five minutes? And
what are the odds he will be if we play him at the five all
regular season and he gets beat up. That's that's a legitimate to raise as
a concern. But to me, like it does check out. The Lakers
can really get some stops when they're so big upfront when it's Davis at the
four, because just if you have that much length and rim protection, it's
just a regular season defense It's part of why Rudy Gobert is such an effective
regular season defender. Unless so in the playoffs, you just have all this
length out there, disruptive, you protect the rim, you know whatever.
It just works. The playoffs, I think are different. And the longer
I cover the league, the more I'm convinced that that is just I can't
not think about that. And it applies especially to the Lakers because Lebron James
is one hundred years old and like, he has to win a title and
that's all we're doing this for it For the Lakers, that's the only thing
that matters. So I agree that that there's value in playing Davis at the
four because just for preservative purposes, and I think in addition to his unwillingness
to play the five for a long time, that's been a factor in the
Lakers decision to just always have old school bigs on the roster with him.
The other thing, so, as a playoff team, Anthony Davis, I
don't think should play the four unless we're in the first round against a pushover.
I don't think the Lakers are necessarily gonna be good enough to have a
pushover in the first round. There's no other in the West, especially this
feisty Yeah, everybody's pushing everybody else over right now, and we kind of
foresaw that. But so at the in the playoffs, he's got to be
five. That's it. Whatever happens up until then, not super concerned.
The other thing, though, is, and this is this is a problem
with Russell Westbrook. You just have to tailor what you do to make him
useful somehow. And so what has worked with the Lakers and in the past,
and the other guys that can't shoot, the defenses don't honor. You
make him the ball screener. And there are a lot of clips earlier this
year before he got hurt of Lebron running a pick and roll up top with
Westbrook as the screener and on the short roll. Westbrook is a monster because
he's got a head of steam, the defense is rotating, he's a good
passer on the move. He still can sort of finish. He's not what
he used to be. But like, that's the way that Russell Westbrook is
most effective for the Lakers is if he's a role guy. I don't see
another way where in a playoff series he's super useful or helpful. I think
he's damaging otherwise. And if you're gonna do that, you can't have Dwight
Howard or DeAndre Jordan in the dunker spot. And that's what's going to have
to happen if Ad is playing the four in lineups that also have Lebron and
Russ and a big guy. So I think, if one you're trying to
make the best playoff lineup you can, Davis has got to be the five,
and two, if you're trying to make Russell Westbrook not a net negative
player, Davis has to be the five. So are those are my main
two things that I keep coming back to On that one. I do think
it's noting that when and the sample sizes are just so fucking small. At
the moment when Russ and Lebron play together with Davis at the five, the
Lakers have a one twenty one point one offensive rating and there are plus three
point eight per one hundred possessions. The thing you get into there is okay
that net rating is so small. With a high offensive rating, their defensive
rating is one seventeen point two, which looks more sustainable long term, and
it's that the defense will be bad I agree with you on the playoffs.
I will push back on the like and it's not just the Rudy Gobert stuff.
I'm not saying you're perpetuating that narrative. I think what changes in the
playoffs is that it becomes much more important when you're a big man who is
also in front of you, because not everything could be funneled towards you.
And so with Rudy Gobert, yes, there are matchups that aren't great for
him, but I think in the Clipper series last year what really killed him
was one, the Jazz couldn't really punish the Clippers were going small on offense.
That was definitely thing. And then two, who's the most most athletic
wing defender? No, that's it. Who's the athletic wing defender? It's
either yeah, like so, but yes, I I'm with you on that
that he can't be a four in the playoffs and your offense is going to
forever be capt if he is your four on this team, because it's either
going to be Russell Westbrook is your point guard or Rondo is your point guard,
or are you playing both of them at the same time for some ungodly
reason, let's go to your truth or trash on the the LA teams,
because that segues into this discussion a lot better. What what did I say
that I had a couple of them, the one truth or trash? Both
LA teams will be playing teams? I said at least one, didn't I
I want to be my ridiculous I need you to get my ridiculous statement correct.
It's not ridiculous if you said one. I think you said both.
Let's see, I think I said at least one. You said at least
LA team will be in the play in, or one LA team will finish
with the worst record in California. Let's go. This is me betting on
the Kings. You finally engendered Grant's faith after you know a decade of him
just dumping all over you. So to the Lakers point on this, So
if we're going with one LA team, at least one LA team will be
in the play in, I'll say truth. I mean, like I don't.
That doesn't even feel too spicy. Do you have any confidence that things
get better in LA with the Lakers? Specifically when looking at Russ and the
fit there, because we sort of when we talked about in the off season.
We both landed in the same spot. And this was in one of
the games, and maybe even in both of the games. Like they did
blow that twenty six point lead against okay See with Lebron out, but you
beat the Spurs, you at least have the okay See game and control Westbrook,
and theory elevates your floor without Lebron games. But I don't know that
he does anything to raise their ceiling. Do you think that he is actively
lowered their ceiling though, based off how jagged the fit has seemed right now,
I think so. Yeah. I think I mean that was that's just
another way to frame what I think we agreed on, which is is he
lowers their postseason ceiling. And right, like, I think, you know,
just because of everything we just talked about, in addition to what you
said about about you know, big guys in the playoffs, it's just the
place where where players with weaknesses get exploited. Like that's I think Bob Meyers
a couple of years ago had the quote about like he was talking about Paul
Pierce or something. He's talking to Paul Pierce and he was saying, the
playoffs, the deeper you get the more it becomes like the first thing you
want to do is not an option, and then neither is the second,
and the third and the fourth and what like, how how well rounded are
you as a player? How multifaceted are you when when you need to be?
Because so to apply that to Westbrook, he kind of does one thing
right, Like, so if that one thing doesn't work, and we've seen
it not work, We've just seen teams, the Rockets adjusted to figure out
ways to make him good. The Wizards did it. Everybody bends over backwards
to be like, how can we get you know, Westbrook to to be
a positive And some of that was regular season stuff and he still wasn't helpful
in the playoffs. So I think he does lower their ceiling. I've thought
that, like from moment one. But I also like, look, if
he's supposed to raise their floor and you can't beat the thunder with him and
Anthony Davis, I like, I don't know, man. So I think
I weirdly have like a lot of some more faith in the Clippers because I
think their defense and their personnel is just going to be very good. This
may be colored by the fact that, like they played the Warriors very well
about defensively, about as well as anybody had. You know, they didn't
win, obviously, but I thought that, you know, Terrence Mann,
I think is emerging as one of the best wing defenders in the league.
Paul George is good. They got all these switchy wing guys. I just
I don't know. I don't have a problem putting my faith in that.
So if I had to say, I think I probably would still I probably
I'll say, truth to one or more of the LA teams are in the
plan, and I think the one I picked to be in the plan is
the Lakers, because look, Lebron's already hurt. I mean, that's the
other thing that's that's your if you're projecting how things go sideways for the Lakers,
that's item one, and he's all and it's already happened. It's minor
theoretically, but a lot of the things we thought might potentially go bad for
the Lakers, like a couple of them are already manifesting rust being a tough
fit and Lebron potentially breaking down. So like, I still think they'll both
be better than the Kings. Just so we're clear, I was just trying
to goad you into one on that. But yeah, so I think the
Clippers, maybe that's the hot take, maybe that's the truth or trash.
The Clippers will finish ahead of the Lakers in the standings. I'm still gonna
claim trash because I picked the Lakers over for some fucking dumb reason. I
haven't no idea what I was thinking when I did that. I'm just I
have so much faith in the Lebron ad minutes eventually, and I feel like
whether maybe they get lucky on the buy out market, there's stuff they could
do via trade once talent Horton Tucker is healthy, I don't. I think
he'll help their defense a ton, and maybe even Areza helps the Davis at
the five minutes, and look, Malik Monk has had his moments. I
think they'll be fine eventually, but I am lower on them than I was
before after watching it, and with the Clippers, it's just maybe apparently I
didn't watch enough of Terrence Man last season. I don't remember him being this
good on defense. He wasn't. Okay, it happened, it started in
the playoffs, and now this year that's just I think he's made a concerted
effort, and I think this has been written about where he's this is,
this is how he's decided he fits in. It's like, I'm just gonna
be that guy that is in Steph Curry's jersey. That's that's who I'm going
to be. And it's worked. I mean, it's effective. I'm just
their three point shooting has fallen off from last year where everyone shot forty five
percent. Now everyone five percent. Sabrina Chant from SB Nation came on here.
It's that she was expecting and huge drop off from Marcus Moore Senior,
and holy hell, has she been right thus far. I think the fact
that they just don't have Kauai and they still need I would say this even
if they had Kauai, but it's more glaring than ever that they need another
creator on this team. I'm just gonna default that that's going to come back
to bite them in the as at some point. What if Paul George needs
to miss time. I know that they could theoretically get healthier. Serge Ibacca's
yet to play this season, but I don't like to serge Ibaka. They
have their seventh the defensive efficiency at this point, and Sergebaca will help their
force basing on offense because he's presumably gonna shoot better than like a crappy percentage
from three than a lot of these other guys. But does he actually help
their defense at this point, I think you could argue no, he might
hurt it and so I and they don't have an incentive. Look, Luke
Kennard has been really good for them. I think that that's someone that they
can lean on long term, and he gives you I will maintain. I
don't know that we'll always see it in LA. There have been spurts this
season that he will give you more off the dribble juice than credited, or
maybe that they use him for I just they seem like one aside from Kawai
because I know they don't. But that's the easy out here is they don't
have Kawai. I'm still gonna think that they finished with a worse record than
than the Lakers. This is gonna be a fun where we should keep track
of that because I think it might be pretty close. I'm gonna I'm gonna
start a spreadsheet as you vamp on this, and I'm gonna throw one at
you here. This is a tough one. The Minnesota Timberwolves, Chicago Bulls,
and Cleveland Cavaliers. Truth are trash. We'll all have top ten defenses.
Now that's an easy trash. I'm gonna say two of those we'll have
top ten defenses. Truth are trash. Okay, I was gonna I was
gonna jump the gun and say it's trash. We have to talk about it
because they're all shockingly good defenses right now. It's a topic that is it
needs to discuss. I'm gonna say it's trash. I'm gonna say none of
them will have top ten defenses. Oh, so I'll take him in order.
You said the Wolves first. I do think I do think it's interesting
they've started uh McDaniels in every game, and I think Vanderbilt Jared Vanderbilts started
one and josh akoge has started the other three they played, I think they
played four. By my council part, I could not believe that they went
with a Kobe over Vanderbilt at the beginning of the year. By the point
is the point is they're like, I mean, all three of those guys
are just they're in the NBA to play defense at this point. At this
point, like McDaniels is young enough that it could be different. A Koge
I think is established as like what he is. Vanderbilt to a lesser extent,
I agree, I think, but like they're committing, they're gonna put
really sort of imbalanced players on the floor to offset kat and Russell and Edwards,
who are great offensive players, are certainly better offensive players and defensive players.
So I like that. So if you're gonna bet on the Wolves,
like you can bet on the you might wanta you focus on the fact that
they're gonna put guys out there that are there to play defense, so that
that helps a little bit. I just think that, like, Okay,
I haven't done it yet, so I'm gonna do it now. But opponents
are shooting twenty eight percent from deep, right, that's that's like, that
doesn't happen, that's not sustained. So that's a big factor. I think
to the West, there's a lot of there's more parody this year in the
West than there's been in a long time. It feels like I still think
there's just too many good offenses for the Wolves to sustain a top ten defense.
And so and again, Russell is such a target, right like it's
so hard to hide a point of attack defender. Uh and Kat like has
just he's had. I think I'm probably under Thibodeau. I would just guess
that he had a decent defensive season. He's still not. I mean,
that's just he's not. I don't know if I call him a target,
but like he's I don't feel like he's a plus most of the time.
So that's the Wolves skeptical. The calvs. Evan Mobley is something. I
think Evan Mobley has the potential to be the type of transformative defender that could
get a defense almost on his own, to top ten territory. It's stupid
early like he could he could just look like an overwhelmed rookie for the next
two months after I say this, and I presume you'll agree because this everybody
agrees that Evan Mobley is special. They're using a lot of zone which also
Mobile is really exciting in as the guy at the top who happens to be
seven feet tall and recovers to block shots and just everywhere. But when we
talked about this before, all the spoil it like Lorie Market is playing the
three. I just that's like a big ask for me to believe there's a
top ten defense that starts marketing and at the three even if Alan has played
well, even if Mobile looks special, their three point defense is also in
wolves territory, which is unsustainable. And like Garland and Sexton have never been,
there are two small guards. It's I mean, in addition to market
and being a target, neither of those guards. Sexton's a lot of bark
and no bite defensively, or has has been for his career. Garland's really
small. It's kind of a Blazer situation where you can pick on both of
those guys. So skeptical there. The bull schedule sucks. They haven't played
anybody yet, like sorry, and it's awesome that they by the time this
goes live. So okay, So maybe I'll be wrong, that's fine.
I'll definitely be wrong. They've changed their I've you know, read some smart
stuff. They've changed the way they play picking rolls. It seems to be
working better. It's more disruptive. It's not as passive of a defense.
And maybe it's the type of thing where all I'm sure they've heard all offseason,
and all I've said all offseason, and everybody said is like, Yeah,
the offense will be pretty good, They've got a bunch of scoring punch.
The defense is gonna be terrible. So maybe they've taken that to heart.
And it's a type of thing where it's been a point of emphasis across
the board and the players are trying to be you know, proved out is
wrong. I don't know how much stock is we're putting in that, and
look, you know, maybe I'll throw to you. So they're not gonna
I don't think they're a top ten either, but the Bulls do have some
points in their favor, one of which is Alex Caruso, who I know
you like, and some of their personnel changes do augur well for improved defense,
but I'm not buying it. So since you called, since you said
none of them are going to fish in the top ten, I'm free to
put this one in as one of these teams will be a top ten defense.
Yep, I'm gonna say truth if I and I'm curious to see yes.
So the thing I agree with you on basically everything the Alan Mobley Marketing
front court. Even though Marketing is played hard defensively this year, I wonder
forget to a point where it's just, yeah, he needs to play better
on offense. I mean, his spacing is important, but like you might
just want to start Okoro at some point. I find it very hard to
believe that that front court they have a ninety eight point three defensive rating when
those three are the Calves do. When those three are on the floor,
opponents are shooting fifty five point four percent at the rim and twenty four point
fo percent on above the break threes. I can buy the above the break
three point trend just based off what you said about the way they're playing defense
and Evan Mobley, who by the way, has spent more than a quarter
of his defensive possessions primarily guarding a one, two or three. He's so
good. I don't everyone who listens to this podcast knows. I get like
shin deep in the draft coverage. I just didn't see this coming. I
thought the Cavs. I didn't think they were stupid for picking Mobley. I
didn't see the path to him and Alan working given Alan one hundred million dollars
over five years. I think we both collectively talked about on this podcast how
that was a mystifying decision to us. I'm ready to just say I was
wrong, and that's absolutely fantastic for them. I think they're the team that
would be No, they're not least like I think the Wolves are the team
least likely to maintain it, just for all basically all the reasons that you
said. And I think they're best lineups, the ones that they're gonna need
to lean on are gonna end up being their worst defensively, and they're just
they're so completely flip flopped right now where they have the basically the worst half
court offense and the best half court defense. That's I'm rounding up, but
it's like very close. That trend is just not going to hold for them.
I think the Bulls have the best chance of maintaining their top ten defense,
which is why I'm going to say truth even though I'm reluctant to do
it. They have and this is another thing that's not going to hold it.
So they're starting five of Lonzo, Lavine, De Rosen, Williams and
Boots a ninety seven four offensive rating and an eighty four to five defensive rating.
Like that's another thing where it's very flip floppy. Right you can see
a pathway to their defense working, especially when you plug Alex Caruso into that
lineup and maybe pulled the Rose in, or even when you pull Patrick Williams.
The numbers when you pull Patrick Williams for Crusoe and what I would argue
might end up being like their crunch time staple unit, those have been really
good. Which Chicago is also doing, is you do still have Boots dropping
back, but you're also playing like ultra aggressive defense and they are forcing a
ton of turnovers. Only one team is forcing turnovers on a larger share of
their opponent's possessions, and they're doing so well not fouling a ton. I
don't know whether they can maintain that balance long term, but I sort of
look at their personnel and just between Lonzo having Crusoe having Patrick Williams, if
you're not going to ask Boots to do a ton of stuff, like you're
not ask asking Boots to come up on every single possession and play to the
level of the screen and do a bunch of switching, like, if you're
not going to ask him to do that a ton, it's I could see
him not torpedoing their defense. You get into issues of Okay, well,
they don't really have a backup five water lineup is gonna look like if they
lean on Tony Bradley a bunch, or is Derek George June You're gonna like
so long term there are concerns, but I look at their personnel and I'm
like, they can very easily just field three above average defenders in competitive offensive
units with Crusoe, Lonzo and Patrick Williams that I can see this sustaining.
And maybe I'm wrong there, I just and I don't know if you would
peg one of the other there three teams is more I think maybe I even
think you might have said that you could see Cleveland having a better chance of
doing that. I think Colin Sexton has gotten a little bit better. And
look, Alan and Mobile are monsters. Alan has done fine on switches too
this year. I'm just you are asking an awful lot of Mobley at the
moment, and so maybe you know, if I had to rank it,
I think the Bulls, then the Calves, then the Timberwolves would have the
best chance of being in the top ten. I probably would have entered the
season thinking the Bulls were in last, just because of or de Rosen's legitimately
not good and I think Lavigne. I don't want to say he comes and
goes in the sense of being good, but he comes and goes of being
passable versus atrocious. Yeah, I would have looked at that and been like,
oh, they have the worst chance. At least you look at Minnesota.
They have Jade McDaniels. They have Jared Vanderbilt, who can just make
absurd rotations when he's really on. But I think the Bulls because two of
their best defenders might be point of attack defenders. And Lonzo everyone has talked
about how he's good within a team scheme before, and I'm not mister X's
and os here. This is someone who has just been a hellscape as an
individual defender this year. And so if your two most important defensive players are
going to be that skilled at the point of attack, at least you know,
through the first four games of the season, Yeah, that gives you
a runway. I think to know, not being you know the leagues,
what are they now? I don't have that pulled up. You would think
I would have brought all that up. They are third in defensive rating.
No, I don't think they're gonna I don't think either of these teams finished
in the top five. But I do think the Bulls might have the highest
ceiling of the bunch. I want to bet on Mobili because I've just had
all the kool aid already on him this year. But I think one thing,
one thing that makes me want to again coming in same thing. I
would have picked the Bulls to have the worst defense of this group, which
is saying a lot because I didn't expect anything out of either of these other
two. But like Vukovich was a big minute guy on a couple of very
good Orlando defenses, so like it's possible, like he's done it before,
and so then if you if you build him in as like at least okay
or like you survive and then you've got the other guys you mentioned, I
think the path to the Bulls being a top ten defense is the clearest,
So I would I would agree and pick them too. I just uh,
I get a part of it's I just want Evan Mobley to be that good
already, because it's exciting. He's mobile, is like the big that we
think there might be one of in every draft, and there just never is,
except for like every every eight to ten years. He's the guy that
we you know, I can't think now off the top of my head of
who who the Evan Mobley of the last of you know, last year and
the year before. But there's always a couple's like, oh, well,
he can guard all five spots, and he's really mobile and he's got good
ball skills. It's everybody wants the next Bam Auto Bio, like that's not
a crazy comp. That's not a crazy comp. And and and Mobley is
bigger and he's better sooner than Autobio was, at least defensively. So I
if I'm wrong about anything, I hope it's this because I hope, I
hope that the Calves based on Mobili being awesome and just a monster, so
suddenly are a team that's like exciting because man, they like who they're They're
due that it's been pretty bleak. The one thing we could be in agreement
of is that Minnesota seems to have the most red flags. Opponents are shooting
under twenty eight percent, not from just three at large, but on why
open threes, which is the lowest mark of this group. And this is
the one again so early, but it truly doesn't make sense. They are
dead last in defensive rebounding percentage in the bottom ten of foul rate, which
that last one I guess doesn't matter if someone put like your second in defensive
rating well being the worst defensive rebounding team in the league. And so I
don't know at the Edwards has gotten better from what I see the Timbers this
year on the defensive end, they would be the one that shocked me most.
If they stick in the top five all year long, no doubt,
I mean top ten all year long. Even if they're in the top if
they're not in the bottom ten, I'd be surprised about that, like right,
Like I don't that's not a crazy thing to say. What do you
have for me next? I want to talk about the Warriors, truth or
trash? How how strongly do I want to phrase this? Not the Warriors
can win the West, which is what I was initially gonna say, But
the Warriors, the Warriors should have right now, if you redid it,
no worse than the second best odds to win the West. So I mean,
are you just saying that they're so they're the second They're one of the
two teams who are most likely don't win the Western conference. They're basically a
top two team in the West. And I'm not talking regular I'm talking regular
season, and like being a top two West contender. You can phrase it
like that. Yeah, so you get anybody else, You could pick any
other two and it can be trash. Like if you get the whole field.
If you think there are two teams that are better than the Warriors,
Oh man, this is a good one. I'm gonna I'm gonna say trash.
I just Utah is above them for me. Still, I'm gonna be
stubborn on Phoenix. Like maybe you know what if Jamal Murray comes back for
Denver or they just you know, Michael Porter Junior actually starts playing well and
Yokich isn't injured long term, I'm gonna say. I'm gonna say trash there.
I'm more reluctant to say that. Who you and Jacob Borne, friend
of the Pockets, you try to tell me about Jordan Poole. I just
didn't believe that he had this type of you sustainable leap in him and the
Warriors have done a better job navigating the stepf minutes. The only player on
their team with a negative net ratings wing right now or negative net rating is
Kavan Looney and they're starting lineup. Data has actually been bad this year so
far because the fact they're not starting with their best unit, and that's absolutely
incredible for them. But the fact that they can play eight teams to a
draw with Steph Curry off the floor now again it's early, that's huge for
them. They're gonna get Clay back at some point. The wild card and
all this is we know that they're not going to play Jonathan Kaminga, Mosses
Moodyaton this season. James Wiseman is the wild card once he gets healthy,
because are they going to feel an obligation to play him in year two?
And the dre Steph minutes were not great with Wiseman last year and they were
genuinely awesome without him this year and now the Warriors are once again awesome when
he has yet to play this year. What type of responsibility do you feel
to him because if he plays more, this team wants to win now.
So I would just argue you don't play him, but now you've essentially then
said we need to. I think if you're not going to play him this
season, there's a chance you wreck his trade value indefinitely, unless you're moving
him now because now two years of mystery box intrigue is gone or whatever.
I'm not saying his career would be hopeless, but that would be the reality
of that situation. I think they're going to try and play him once he
comes back. There has to be a grace period for Clay Thompson. I
have to imagine like there's some like cooling off here. I like, I
don't know. I think this is less about the Warriors though for me,
I do I think they're gonna be a team that has basically a top ten
defense and offense all year. I don't know. I just I don't The
offense, to me would be is more suspect than the defense there So,
but this is less about the Warriors. I think me calling it trash than
believing in Utah this season, and not because they have Ruby Gay. They're
just they're very strong regular season team and even if they're imperfect in the playoffs,
if you get a healthier Mitchell than you did last season, you're you're
sitting a lot prettier. And then I still believe in the Suns and I
think that Denver is like another team that that really has the chance to pop,
and the fact that I'm not mentioning the Lakers here. It's just absolutely
hysterical. But what are you gonna do? So this was just a naked,
unabashed attempts to get you to talk about the Warriors so that I could
take my Jordan Pool victory lap. But also so, Jordan Poole is shooting
forty point three percent from the field in twenty four point one percent from three
point range, and like, hasn't really been that good. And I'm still
I'm putting I'm taking off whatever analyst unbiased hat I was wearing if I was,
and just putting on the fan hat. Jordan Pool is so fun.
Jordan Poole has so much game. It's like he's so smooth. He's been
sped up this year, like in a bad way. He's been pressing because
I think he understand he got really confident, rightfully so over the offseason and
in the preseason, and I think he understands what a lynch pin he is
for this team because those non step minutes, they just don't have anyone else
to create anything. So he really matters, and he's been pressing, and
I just don't care because I love how confident he is, and I love
the ridiculous shots he takes, and I love his craft, and I love
all his layup package and just the whole thing. He's just so much fun.
The words haven't had a young guy like that since Steph was a young
guy like that, And even Steph wasn't like Steph was just different, but
so is different. It's a little different. It's a little different. I'm
gonna say truth. And there's just a lot of reasons I want to talk
about, though, your your Wiseman is your Wiseman point because it's kind of
insane that the number two pick last year is like an afterthought. But I
think he very much is that, and if he does have a significant role
when he is healthy, it'll just be because Looney is not playable. It
won't be because the team thinks Wiseman is ready or thinks they owe him these
minutes. I think it's it's been very clear, just based on the coverage
of the team, what the beat guys are saying, what the team is
saying, that we're not going to play Wiseman because he's the number two pick
and we feel like we have to like they just aren't. And you're right,
that is going to torpedo his trade value. But I think they're okay
with that one because they want to win now. They've wasted two years and
two because they don't intend to him. I think he and Kaminga and Moody
to a lesser extent, Moody is by far the most ready to play of
all those guys. He could play fifteen minutes a game, I think and
be like okay right now, and he might be he wasn't so good,
damn. So there's your found money, right, There's another So that's another
reason. That's truth is for me that they are a top two team in
the West. They just you need guys like that to hit, and his
hit has been very slow to develop because he's just sort of gotten a little
better every year to where he's now a rotation wing that you can trust on
both ends. But I just think I think the Warriors haven't played that well
yet and they haven't lost, and and it's and it reminds me a little
bit of the margin for error that they used to have. So I think
there's a chance for them to get a lot better because they're playing guys like
Auto Porter and them and you be elites to both of them have looked very
good and flashes that still are not. It takes a long time to figure
out how to play the way the Warriors want to play. So if those
guys have quite clicked, Pool is still integrating trying to sort of toggle between
Like I'm getting up twenty shots in twenty minutes, and you know, when
do I make the right play? There's a lot of adjustments to go.
They've turned the ball over, just like I don't know where they are in
turnovers in the league, but they I guarantee they leave the league and like,
agree, just what the fuck are you thinking wasting a possession turnover?
Just throwing it away? That's part of That's always been part of their whole
deal. I think, like you said, their defense last year, I
think it was fifth and it hasn't been that good this year. I think
it can get a lot better. Offensively, I think they have the potential
to be really great, especially when they play small with the elites at the
five as a second unit guy, because he actually can run the offense,
which I did not know. So then oh, yeah, we realize,
Yeah, he's one of those guys. It's not a perfect comparison, but
it's a little bit of a Boris d Out thing where when Boris I was
on a bad was on a bad team, it was just like, no,
man, I'm not I'm giving you like my C minus and I just
I'm out of shape and whatever. And when he's on a good team,
suddenly he's like closing games for a title winner like Belitz is not that,
but Belitz I think benefits from playing with a lot of smart players, and
the Warriors have those this year. They did not last year. Sorry,
Kelly, you bray so so they I think the Warriors have you know,
they're undefeated. They have a path to getting significantly better. All bets are
off. If Steph or Draymond get hurt, if Clay is a forty percent
of what he used to be, whatever, there's obviously downside. Like but
again, the West is kind of weird, and the Warriors have a lot
of potentially get better. So I'm I'm irrationally bullish, and it's partly because
I just missed so much watching a good version of this team that like maximizes
you know, some of the old guys that that are I'm so attached to
Clay just still remain. I don't think they've been good enough for me to
think that Clay is anything like less of a swing piece now to me,
like for this to be a truth, like he needs to come back and
be basically Clay. And the other thing is it's like I mentioned before that
they have won the non Steff minutes this year, but like the offense has
still been bad when he court, and so it feels like maybe they are
better built to navigate those defensively, but they actually have a lower offensive rating
this year with Steff off the floor than they did last year because their defense
has been so well. And maybe when you can play guys like Igodala and
Otto Porter in those minutes, like maybe that maybe that helps you. My
one dripe with this team is that wants Conno Anderson is approbably never just going
to play enough. He's another example though he's your tenth guy, ninth guy,
depends on the night, depends on the Honestly, I would start him
next to Draymond. They just don't want to play Draymond at the five.
And I thought, yeah, there might have been like more of an They
were never gonna start games like that, but like the Draymond Tisconna Anderson front
court, like just Mace so much sense. I'm also stand oh, I
love like no he's look him and be Elita I think can really be an
awesome four or five on second units. But both of them, like Jca,
how are we gonna really keep talking about ja? We are We're gonna
talk about He's a really good passer, He's really disruptive defensively, he gets
just totally annihilated by any kind of four or five with size if they post
up. But the Warriors can scramble and do all kinds of stuff, and
I think they're cool with conceding some rough defensive stretches if the second unit is
kind of like chaotic and running and can score and move the ball because they
tend they tend to win those stretches if they can play that way. Yeah,
I don't know. Look, we didn't even you just finally mentioned Igudala.
Iguodala is not washed. It's unbelievable. Right, He's the second second
oldest player in the league, and he's got a handful of dunks this year.
Either Anthony Davis tried to post them up in the in the in the
opener, and it was the most predictable strip you have ever seen, Like
if five seconds before it happened, you knew Igodala was gonna strip it.
So he still has the hands, he's still smart. It's it's a it's
really it's pretty gratifying. Igodala is one of my favorites ever. I just
I'm so psyched that he's still good. I have three that are related to
the Grizzlies, So let's try and contrary to our normal selves, let's try
and be quick about them. First one is John Morant will make an all
NBA team this year. Truth or trash. Let's go truth, Let's do
it. We're gonna do it. We're gonna do truth. And part of
that is I just think the pop has come a year sooner than I thought
it would. I kind of thought maybe next year would be the You know,
his three point shot is gradually gonna a little better. He's hitting like
it's not again unsustainable. He's hitting forty I think it's forty five, forty
six percent from deep forty five point eight. I don't know if you're looking
at it. And he's shooting more threes, and he's got this will tie
in. He's got like a really interesting supporting cast. Now I love the
Melton Bain wing combo, and Jackson looks better and him spacing gives Morant like
an unfair advantage because he can get downhill with no space. I think he's
set up to succeed the West is I mean not just the West. Obviously,
it's all NBA. There's just so many good guards. But like maybe
Dame doesn't look so good. Maybe you know, you know, Westbrook's not
gonna be there. I don't think hardens out of it hardens not looking that
there's like a there's a path. And because it is fun to believe that
we're seeing the emergence of a new star, I'm gonna say truth. And
look, Jason Kidd's gonna keep lucaf right, so just gonna ruin him.
I'm gonna say truth too. And the only thing I'll add to what you
said is it's not even just you know the three point clip is gonna fall.
Although this is well, let me make the point first is that there's
just more levels to his game when it comes to his jumper. Now,
like it's not just the floater or trying to finish at the rim. Like
he's taking some mid rangers the threes. He's more confident shooting those off the
dribble or just off the catch. You just can't go under him like that
anymore. But the fact that they can now kill you from all levels,
I don't know how you guard him consistently and if the mid range game might
be the key to unlocking everything for him, which is I think some people
will find that weird to say. And to this point, so, there
have been eighty one players as we record this who've attempted at least fifteen off
the dribble jumpers. The Grizzlies have two players who rank in the top ten
of effective field goal percentage. Of those players, Jaw is tied for ten
with Kevin Durant and Seth Curry, who was birthed in a volcano. Apparently
the anti mentain is second until like, yeah, there's the element, And
I'll get to this that maybe some of these guys cool off, but I
think that that part of jazz game, I feel like it's more for real
than not at this point, and he settles into at least a league average
to slightly above average off the dribble shooter, and that ends up just opening
up the entire context of not his game, but the Grizzlies offense. He
has more room to drive this year based off what they're doing with their starting
lineup of they pulled off Anderson Brooks is injured, so they went with Baine
and Melton, who looked at three point shooting revolution for him. Great last
year, great again this year. We have to assume it's at least close
to for real. Having Jared Jackson Junior back in this lineup regularly, that
just gives him John more room to operate. He's already a fantastic passer.
I'm gonna say truth here too. There's just so many talented guards and Dame
Slash, Luca Slash. Really, anybody could just turn their season on a
whim at this point. Yeah, I mean even James Harden. So there
is real risk here. But I want to believe. Yeah, I just
I want to believe. And look, he's doing a lot of the stuff,
definitely on a larger scale. But this isn't coming out of nowhere like
there were. We saw some of this towards the tail end of last season.
Yeah, if you'd said, if someone had told you before the season
that could see the future like John Morant is going to be like a sneaky
MVP candidate, you would have been like wow, shit like already, but
not like, oh, forget it, that's ridiculous, Like you know,
we'd seen enough to know that that he had that this was possible. The
other thing is you mentioned Morant has real quickly you know, level levels to
go, or has leveled up and could continue the Grizzlies if if, if
huge, if if Jackson could ever survive at the five defensively good god,
like and you're playing five out with jaw like talk about you can't guard the
guy. I mean, it's just I mean, it gets Steven Adams out
of the way, and what happens offensive I mean offensively, that's just the
potential is off the charts for him and for the team. The second one
for the Grizzlies is Desmond Baine. Truth or trash is the biggest, biggest
steal. So it's relative to where he was selected of the twenty twenty draft.
He was taken at number thirty. I mean, I'm gonna pull the
draft up right now, but I'm having a hard time believing that anybody so
I'll give you my main contenders. Yeah, give me some contenders. I'm
gonna look at it while you while you list them. Isaiah Stewart at sixteen.
They also look, this guy's on the Grizzlies, Xavier Tillman Senior at
number thirty five, Sadique Bay at number nineteen, Emanuel Quickly at number twenty
five, and if look, if you want to go, I would consider
this, but Kenyan Martin Junior at fifty two, just on a pure value
play. I think there's a couple of others that jump out. Maxie at
twenty one pretty good, but I don't think he's better than Desmond Baine,
so that's out. The other one that hit Haliburton, Haliburton is like he's
a lottery pick. So I don't know if that's quite the same. But
I think everyone agrees that Haliburton was underdrafted. LaMelo Ball at three, that's
a pretty good, pretty big steal. Uh No. I think I think
that's why was selected to too. Yes, yes it is. Don't remind
me, uh No, I think that's truth. I think like I don't
think bain correct me if you if you or tell me if you think otherwise.
I don't feel like bain Is has the potential to be an offensive engine,
like you know, an on ball primary like the most valuable type of
player that there is. But if the second most is, or at least
one of the most sought after is the three and D wing like it's hard
to do. But I mean, he shot forty three percent from deep last
year, He's over forty this year. He's he's got the size to switch.
What do the Grizzlies look like when? When and if they can play
Brooks, Baine and Melton together defensively, Like I think, I mean that
gets interesting. Baine's really good. I think that's definitely true. Yeah,
Haliburton's really the only serious contender here for me. Maybe Sadique Bay I think
has a chance to really work his way in there. So I think we
could even change it to one of the two biggest deals because Halberton is like
you might have lent but like he was so underdrafted. I'm gonna say truth
here too, And I think to address what you said about whether he has
more of like ball skills, we're seeing him do more work on the ball
already. He's handling it well. I don't know who would be like the
best comp because I don't know that he'll ever have like that in between game
of I thought about Chris Middleton in terms of the volume as a guy who
runs picking rolls, but I don't know that Bane is that type of a
pastor and he certainly doesn't have that type of in between game. So I'm
just like that player who is he's three in D but like, yeah,
you could put him on the ball to run stuff. He can get his
own shot if he's getting too the basket, or he can run a bunch
of pick and rolls for you. I don't know who would be the comp
there, but that is he's I think he's going to be more than three
in D. And I don't even know that you could say he's been like
really good defensively yet and so I think he's been very good enough this season.
I don't know how much of that. It's just like, Okay,
well you do have Melton on the court with you for a lot of your
minutes. Still just knowing that he's had to guard a lot of truer wings
where he might have been better suited at the two. That boats well for
his future. I do think there's a much more complicated or maybe complicated is
not the right word, but a he has a broader offensive skill set that
I think that and he hinted at it in Summer League and now we're seeing
a lot of it just translate to the regular season, which is absolutely huge.
Yeah, everybody's over the moon about this year's rookie class. Like low
key, last year's is kind of kind of nice too. And he's definitely
a big reason you want me to throw you one here. We have a
third Grizzlies. We have the third Grizzlies one, which I think it sort
of ties into the first two that we did. The Grizzlies starting five of
Jaron Jackson, Junior Stephen Adams, John Morant has been made in Danthe Melton
is for real. And I'll frame it as this. As of right now,
their offensive rating after they're loss to the Blazers fell to one hundred and
thirty nine point seven on the season. I'm more so talking about of what
I mean by this is that this could end up being one of the most
effective units of the year, and even to go beyond that when Dylan Brooks
comes back. This is a lineup that's so good that you're not putting Dylan
Brooks in there and then pulling Baine or Milton. I think it's truth.
It makes the lineup makes sense right, Like, it has the pieces that
you want. I mean, if if there's a drawback, it's that Adams
is big and not mobile and whatever. But you've got the Jaws, the
star that runs the show. You have two wings that you know can be
great supplementary pieces and certainly have been so far. Jackson gives you these dimensions
offensively that are really exciting, Like, and I'm trying to decide which of
the two, whether their offensive rating or defensive rating, is going to regress
more. Probably offense because nobody scores like one hundred and forty frigging points per
hundred possessions. But yeah, it's it's for real. I think it's truth.
I think I think they're staying power. It's young, so maybe maybe
that's risky, but but but I like it a lot. That unit,
by the way, is shooting forty five point eight percent from three and then
they're not really shooting that well at the rim sixty one percent that's average,
and they're not really shooting especially well from mid range either. So I could
there's like a point where it's like, I guess there's regression there because you
can't just assume that they're going to get better in the other areas and you're
not going to shoot that I've equipped from deep. Their defense has been just
it's been fantastic. Opponents are only shooting fifty five point two percent at the
rim against those lineups. They're actually shooting thirty nine point five percent on above
the brake threes against that lineup. Though, So I think when there's that
many mixed results across the board, I tend to just default to, Wow,
this might be more real than not. So I think we look back
and say, you know, Dylan Brooks is not a starter for the A
team this season, and that this ends up being just one of the most
used assuming everyone's healthy, and then just ave units in basketball. So we
all we went three straight truths on the Grizzlies, who I am just apparently
trained to underestimate every single season. I'm conditioned to underestimate them every single year.
You know what a good test would be is so we've all just we've,
like you said, we're over the moon about the Grizzlies and now it's
like, are the Grizzlies going to finish above the play in level? And
I think we'd both be like, I don't know. So it's funny when
you get really put to it, like how good do we really think they
are? There? They're a lot of fun and I hope they're really great
and I think there's a chance that they are. But I don't know what
I would say if you told if that was your truth or trash. I
didn't make it that for a very specific reason. Can I ask you James
Harden question? You may truth? They're trash? James Harden is not a
superstar anymore? To find superstar? Uh wow, well it's as an amorphous
description anyway. Here you saying he's not a top ten player anymore? Oh
for sure, if you want to go there, Yeah, I mean James
Harden is not a guy that in his current state, And I guess to
make it interesting you have to say, like, will not this year be
a guy that dominates the game or is it top ten or even whatever,
top fifteen. Let's put it where you want. Maybe we should do we
frame it as to give you I guess you more Lee would be like James
Harden will not make an All NBA team, or is that that actually works
if we go with James hard will not finish the year as a top ten
player, or I guess either, or I'm still gonna say trash. There's
very clearly an impact on his game with the way that the offenses are now
being officiated. But he's also talked about this. The conditioning clearly isn't there.
He couldn't play pick up over the offseason. He said he was just
basically doing rehab. I think I'm more maybe I'm just he is. He
had the hamstring and shue last year. He's on the wrong side of thirty.
Like part of me wants to say truth, I'm going trash here because
this has been he was one of the most convincing MVP candidates of the league
after the trade to Brooklyn. When you really looked at it, no one
was being the kitch and per minute, you know, he definitely wasn't gonna
be embeed. But he was one of the most valuable players in the league
before he went down with that hamstring injury. I think he settles in and
look. One of the things that bowes well for him is he's still shooting
like thirty eight percent on his pull up threes, and so like if that
just has to become his bread and butter, where he can't get into the
lane anymore, Like you're still looking at a very effective offensive player. I
think that also part of the stuff that might be impacting him is, like
you know, the Nets themselves have room to get better with or without Kyrie.
They're they're twenty third in offense and they're twentieth and effective field goal percentage,
those rates aren't gonna hold all year with or with or without Kyrie,
And so you're gonna see, I would argue, you're gonna see James Harden's
efficiency climb for sure. There's really I mean, when you look at his
true shooting percentage, which I think is the last time I check, is
at like forty one point two, it's now at forty nine point one.
So we brought it up. Congrats to him. But you might even see
that his assist numbers go up, and he's already averaging eleven point three assist
per a hundred possession. So I think he will still be a top ten
player when this season is said and done. So this is a total prisoner
at the moment question. Obviously, I wrote about him last night. I
watched that game against the Heat last night. This would be Wednesday night now
for recording this Thursday. I can't say truth yet, but here is the
case for it being truth. So I'll put it that in your trash.
Yeah trash, yes, trash, but I want it so A couple one
is just the bigger picture thing of like he we know as extracurriculars. We
know like that catches up with guys eventually and becomes harder to overcome injuries,
It becomes harder to get your burst back. You think you're settling in and
then you realize, like I just don't have that level anymore. It comes
quick sometimes, and for guys that operate like him, you know, maybe
it's coming quicker than we think that's but if he said like you like you
did, he hasn't really played that much. He's not in shape. Fine.
The thing that really is compelling to me is I think a lot of
his struggles are undeniably the result of the rule changes. And unless this is
one of those things where the NBA enforces it really strictly at first and then
loosens it, like the delay of game stuff they did, you know,
a couple of years ago, some of the carrying violations. Every year there's
a point of emphasis. The revs go hard early, and then it kind
of becomes how it dissipates a little bit. Maybe he'll start getting some of
the calls against the heat. There was a half dozen instances that would have
been fouls shooting fouls last year that just weren't, and I think almost all
of them were the correct call, the correct no call. So that's a
factor because if you just look back historically, like the difference between good and
great for Harden has been based on two things. One is volume. He's
just been so high volume. And the other is the free throws because from
deep you know, since he came in the league thirty six point three percent
from deep league average thirty five point seven. It's volume he gets the volume.
He just he led the league in free throw makes an attempt six years
in a row, won the MVP, and one of those that's just his
value comes from getting to the line all the time, not because he's actually
that efficient of a score from the floor, Like that's just those are the
facts. So if you're taking away one of the things that made him a
league's which is the free throw volume. It's a huge lift for him to
make anything close to the same impact as a guy that scores baskets, Like
that's just that, you know, and he's he's one of the smartest players
in the league. He's a great pastor. There's all these other things.
But I think if you're talking top ten, it's a tough sell if he
doesn't have the free throws, and he kills you on defense, and there's
all this other stuff. So I'm still to say it's trash, but there's
a really increasingly strong case that it's truth. And I'm going to kick myself
for not just sticking to my guns and going for it. But I'm concerned,
and it's not I think. I think, you know, look like
the falloff comes for everybody, and the rule change might have just accelerated it
for him. He's thirty two, you know, and he's played a ton
of minutes, and he's been almost unparalleled in terms of the load that he's
carried offensively for like almost ten years. So there's a lot of factors.
And like the move to Brooklyn is not I guess it has impacted your usage
rate like you would expect, but like it really when you're looking at true
usage and how much they have to rely on him as a passer, you
probably wouldn't think that he would have had an easier role. This is interesting.
I didn't realize how much his free throw attempt rate dropped off last year.
But so in two twenty fourteen point nine free throw attempts per one hundred
possessions last year nine point six free throw attempts per one hundred possess How much
of that is just impacted by like him being off the ball a little bit
more in Brooklyn. I would think that that's and that's where most of his
time was spent. I think that's probably account so that this year, have
you looked at it is true shooting percentage, No, No, his free
throw attempts per one hundre possessions. I know he's averaging three a game,
which is like half less than half of what he's ever or point two per
one hundre possessions. So the progression is fourteen point nine down to nine point
six last season, down to four point two per one hundred possessions this season.
That's a huge you're only talking about a few points per game, but
it does change, like the just the entire premise of how he's playing.
If he can't get to the line at a reasonable clipper count on those files,
like it impacts him getting to the basket, his efficiency inside the arc
on his twos. So this could be like a wholesale shift. It is
a wholesale shift for him, is I guess I'm just more confident in his
ability to navigate it, But you bring up the points that are most more
saling it to me. On top of I think the free throw and the
freedom of movement stuff matters. But then I'm thinking about like, yeah,
he's aged thirty two, has all this these miles on him, and yes
he's been an iron man, but that almost works against him. To where
you had this high usage, you've been available for so long. What does
this hamstring injury assign of you breaking down? And you have Kevin Durant coming
out after Game four saying, you guys want me to say, I'm gonna
say we miss Kyrie Irving. That's just not You have what should be like
two of the five or ten best players in basketball. You wouldn't necessarily expect
him to get there. I respect him saying it, and it's obvious because
the Nets have not been good on offense. I think that'll eventually change.
But I have after hearing you talk and laying out your case, I have
less confidence in Trash than I did when I said it. But I'm still
pretty confident that he will be a top ten player at the end. Maybe
you know, maybe there won't be enough time for him to make an All
NBA team, like because now you're saying, is he one of the six
best guards? How many guards are in the top ten? However you want
to frame it, I think at worst he's gonna be looser to that territory.
Then he won't be I just can't imagine this big, even if you
think he could still get better, and there will still just be a demonstrative
drop off from the player he was for him not to be one of the
ten best players in basketball. It's just one of those things where I don't
know. It always strikes me we have something. I think Lebron has ruined
us, ruined our ability to evaluate this because we've spent five years being like
this is this is the one, you know, like it's got to end
sometime, and it just never has thirty two. I'm just I'm just regurgitating.
But like the end comes eventually for everybody, and just based on based
on what I saw last night again, Prisoner of the Moment, it's not
great, it's not it's it feels closer. It feels shockingly close. For
how totally dominant he was, you know, two years ago, and even
like you said, his initial Brooklyn stuff, he was great. I got
I got got some concerns. You got another one for me? Yeah,
I have two more. I'm gonna pick one that's the pressed for time.
I'm gonna go with. Let's talk about the Hornets. There's one between the
Hornets and the Mavericks. I'm more intrigued by by Charlotte would value Oh yeah,
I would love to talk about Charlotte. I'll frame it this way.
The Hornets are a top six team in the East, or if you have
them there already, they were wildly underestimated truth or trash. And I'm saying
this is someone who thought that there was just this rush to coordinate them as
even a fringe playoff team. I thought they were at least a year out
from being something really special. And you just look at what they've done at
the beginning of the season. Their offense is first in the league, averaging
one hundred and twenty four point six points or no obscary, I'm looking at
the wrong data there, but they have that. They do have the best
offense in the league. I think you know them moving PJ. Washington to
the bench, it was interesting at first, but Miles Bridges is so good
and I know people are talking about always off the people efficiency can't sustain.
He did a lot of this last year, maybe in a smaller volume.
He was hitting step back threes last year. And now the PJ. Washington
at the five minutes, they still might wind up tenuous defensively, but they
hung tough last year when he was starting, or and it wasn't even starting
at the five like when he was playing heavier minutes, and now they're just
mashing against second units. This year those minutes have been fantastic. So I
think there might be a real discussion here, like maybe we were just slow
to recognize how good Charlotte was. And so I'm just curious where you land
on Charlotte's being a top six team or in the East, or at least
wildly underestimated, for sure, wildly underestimated. Top six is so tough because
you just run down the list and it's, you know, the Bucks,
the Nets, the Heat, the Hawks, which we haven't even talked about
yet, the Bulls, the next, the Sixers, the Celtics. That's
one, two, three, four or five that's eight. Is Charlotte definitely
better than two of them or three of them? Like, I don't know.
I will say if you're looking for and I'll get the truth. They're
trash, I think probably. I don't know what I think yet, so
I'm going to talk myself into it one way or the other. LaMelo was
shooting fifty percent from three until last night, and I think he shot three
or fourteen from the field last night. And I don't know what he shot
from three. I'm sure it wasn't good. But and as a team,
I think they have They have the highest non corner three percentage in the league
on clean and glass, so that's coming down. They have the highest long
mid range accuracy in the league. That's coming down. That said, they
cannot finish at the room. I want one hundred percent agree on bridges if
only like so, this did start a little bit last year for sure,
No, just nobody. If you weren't talking about Lamello, you weren't talking
about the Hornets at all last year, which is fair. But Bridges like
Bridges looks like a real player with like a lot more dimensions than you know.
He was just a dunker right like and couldn't go right and he I
don't know how many I haven't watched a ton of the Hornets this year.
I've seen so many right handed finishes from him. He's clearly improved in just
his over all skill level. He's developed a ton and I'm it's not a
surprise as anyone who's listening to me talk on here, since I saw him
play last year. I'm in the bag for LaMelo. I think he's a
transformative guy. I think he's the type of player that spurs a team like
the Hornets to a height that you did not It's kind of like Morant that
you did not think they were going to hit. Yet these just fast tracks
everything I want to say. Because I think LaMelo is that impactful, and
because I think he makes them play just the best possible way, which is
super fast, and the ball moves, and he makes other guys move it's
kind of a yogic thing. He enlivens everybody he plays with, and they
just have like more talent than I think maybe we thought. I think that
they can't. Look the only game they lost was an overtime to the Celtics
too, that like they're they're getting Oh that was nuts everybody, I mean
everybody was exhausted that game. It was like an eleven point margin at the
end, but it could have gone either way just because they were all just
falling down dead. I am gonna go truth. I think they can be
a top six team in the East. They are for sure wildly underestimated because
I just think they're young guys got better in a hurry, and they're kind
of sneaky deep and has Rosier even played yet? I think one another.
The other thing is they're red flags, but it's okay. The other like
Kelly Bridgin, he's gonna shoot worse from three, that's cold happen. You're
right, but you haven't had Terry Rosier and and like what if this isn't
your Hayward just doesn't miss thirty games? Like what if you have him all
year? That's another that's another factor. Yeah, I don't know, I'm
curious what you think. Are they at top six team? I'm saying trash
just because I'm playing the odds when you look at the other teams where Atlanta,
Milwaukee, Brooklyn are right there. For me, I think that at
least one of like the Knicks, Celtics or Heat is going to fall into
that tier. So then all of a sudden you're at slash. Excuse me,
I say two of the sixers, Heat, Nick's Celtics fall into that
tier, and all of a sudden you're at five. So I'm just betting,
like, is this team gonna end up being better than two of those
teams plus an Indiana plus you know, Chicago has been better than we expected.
I still believe in Toronto once comes back. Their defense has been fun
to watch. Their offense has been touch and go, especially in the half
court. So I'm gonna say trash. This one's a better one. And
since you mentioned Miles Bridges, I think we get through it quickly, truth
or trash. Miles Bridges gets more than mcaal Bridges did in his extension when
he enters restricted free agency four years and ninety million. I'll spoil mine first.
I'm saying truth. I think this is gonna come back to bite Charlotte
for not signing him do an extension. Maybe he doesn't end up being that
player. I think Mcal Bridges, had he made it to the open market
this season, would have gotten a no brainer, hands down. Max.
I know there's not a ton of cap space. I was shocked that they
got him for I say, so little, but I think he could have
gotten twenty five million a year pretty easily. And when you look at Miles
Bridges with how much he's done off the dribble, which has probably been I
haven't looked into the data for this, but just aesthetically, I think he's
done more off the dribble than Michael Bridge, just because there's more room for
him to do stuff off the dribble. He's not the defender that Michael is,
and I like Michael Bridges better to a winning team than I would Miles
Bridges. Probably I'm gonna say truth Miles Bridges. Maybe it's only maybe it's
four years and ninety one million from someone I don't care. I'm taking truth
on this one though, But I think that's a fun one because they're not
related, but they're also both named Bridges. Great observation, fan, that's
what the fans come here for. I love this question. You made me
look up. I was like, how what are his numbers? Because I
know he's been great. He's averaging twenty six points a game. Miles Bridges
like, he's shooting almost eight threes a game, and he's making almost forty
percent, and he made forty percent last year, and he jumps out of
the like, so here just to your point about like there's just more going
on, Forty eight point five percent of his two pointers have been assisted.
That means he's created more than half of his two by himself, which is
like those are like power drives to the basket, which they can be.
I don't care, doesn't matter, It doesn't matter, so I'm gonna go
truth too. I think I think I agree with you that McHale Bridges,
had he hit the open market, would have been a really interesting case to
how much are you going to pay a three and D guy? I think
Bridges might. I don't know. I mean, Bridges is not the defender
that we have to use first names. Miles is not the defender McHale is,
but he might be better at like everything else, so, and and
his his growth trajectory is like making a vertical line with my hand. So
I think that's compelling too. Yeah, let's go, let's let's let's you
know what. I just wish you had the faith in him to say the
Hornets are a top six team, like I don't. I if you so,
I'd be more inclined to say truth that Myles Bridges gets a max interestated
fregency, that I would that the Hornets are a top six team, and
if he and I would, Bridges is a better passer than him. In
addition to I think he probably has the higher ceiling as an off the dribble
shooter. I just the context of their roles changes so much. There.
He is going to get paid, though, and I don't he might feasibly
price himself out of Charlotte at this point, I think, I don't know.
I don't think he's gonna average, you know, nearly thirty points a
game all season, But at this point, based off what he did last
year plus what he's doing this season, I'd probably be shocked if he doesn't
get more than Michael does did already. Yeah, I love it. I
love it. I love being in on the Grizzlies and Hornets. What a
fun year this is? You have another one for me, Slash? Do
you even have time for one more? Or did you want to do the
one quickly? I had the Hawks one that I skipped over that I hate
the Hawks one because it's such a good question and it makes me uncomfortable.
It's so difficult. I don't have another one for you because my other one
is going to be about the Bulls, and we've talked about the Bulls already,
So I'm gonna shoot their trash. Atlanta's will be the second best team
in the Eastern Conference this season, and I'm I'm taking truth right off the
bat, like That's why it's so quick for me. I didn't even have
to hesitate whether it's because Milwaukee remains banged up and they're gonna miss a ton
of threes or because Brooklyn never gets Kyrie back and James Harden is now you
know, Ben Gordon or whatever like post prime Ben Gordon. Excuse me,
so I don't you know? I I'm looking at the Hawks's depth. I'm
looking at what Reddish has done, looking at what Hunter's done, how they
can navigate the non tree young minutes. Trey Young has not even peaked this
season. And the thing, I'm not surprised by this. It's time to
talk about John Collins is just an elite basketball player. The dude just finds
ways to contribute. He there's so much time on offense when he cannot be
a primary roller, he still finds ways to make an impact, whether he's
coming in for rebounds or whether he's just spotting up, or whether he's just
you know, being in the right spot out of Capella's way, like not
even touching the but like not being in Capella and Trey Young's way when hell
is on the court. And then his defense has gotten so much better away
from the basket, just so much better. I'm not even talking just help.
I'm talking like just one on one situations. It feels like, No,
I don't think he's like when Maxi Kleeba used to be able to move
it. I just think that he's still gotten a lot better. And it
was evident in the playoffs last year and it remains evident now. If Kyrie
comes back to Brooklyn, like because he gets vascinated or because the you know,
the distipulations change and the Bucks get healthy there's a chance that this ends
up looking like unnecessarily incendiary, but I'm taking I had the Hawks third in
the East this year. I'm gonna say that they finished they finished first or
second in the East. I'm taking truth, and like I'm almost not even
sorry about taking the truth. Don't be sorry. I think so I picked
the Bucks to win the title this year, and it was almost entirely because
I just didn't have any questions about them. And I think by that same
logic, I just don't have any questions about the Hawks. There's no there's
no more. Well, how are they going to score? There was never
that question is now there's no more. How are they going to defend?
There's no more? Or do they have any lineup versatility? Do they have
enough wings? Like, there's just no I don't know what the questions are.
And like Cam Reddish is kind of up to something. You know,
this could flame out. He could quit making threes or whatever. But like
you know, DeAndre Hunter was a breakout guy last year. Maybe if he's
healthy. He hasn't been great this year, but I think he can really
play. They paid hurder like they just there's depth, there's versatility, there's
they were in the frigging conference finals. Whatever you want to say about last
year's playoffs, they were there. So yeah, I'm into it. I
I watched the Heat last night, and man, those guys are gonna win
a lot of ugly games. So that's a team I got kind of an
eye on as a potential contender in the nets you mentioned. But the Hawks,
I just don't. I don't there's not a there's not a red flag,
there's not a there's not a well, clearly this is unsustainable, or
clearly this is gonna go wrong, or here's their big weakness. Just that
they're they're isn't one to me. So I kind of like that stability,
and I think that gives them a great and I don't know what the playoffs
are gonna bring, but as a regular season team like these guys are right
there with the Bucks, is just like, just bank on them. Two
great things on that they It didn't end well, and I think it was
only for a few possessions, but it was funny. This is the sign
of how far the Hawks came. They had Hurder, Reddish, Hunter,
Collins and Young on the floor at the same time, and I was like,
I remember calling this the all kids lineup. And now the Hawks are
coming off in Eastern Conference Finals appearance, and I'm talking about them as a
contender the number one of the numbers to watch, And I agree with everything
you said there, and I think I still think Hunter has been great for
them defensively. Last season, when Trey Young was off the court, they
were outscored by four point three points per one hundred possessions, with an offensive
rating in the twenty first percent tile. This season so far, the offense
is in the eleventh percentile when Young is off the court. Their defense has
been so good that they have a plus twenty nine point three net rating.
I think that's what you get when you're able to play reddish the lawn right,
and then Jang as your backup five, and then Solomon Hill is getting
some of those minutes. It's look, I don't think they're ever gonna be
pretty offensively, and I would I would hope that we see more of like
Bogdanovitch playing without Young. Yeah, if you want to lean to the offense,
but it does seem Mike, they're saying we're going to steer into that
defensive identity. They are better built in whatever form you want them to take.
If they want to try and cater to the offense, fine, or
if they just want to veer all the way into defense, great. They
are better built to navigate the non tree young minutes than they have ever been.
They are so deep. I'm taking truth on number two. I don't
did you pick one? I'm gonna say I'll say truth. I can't say
so many good things about them and not say truth. This was great,
Grant, Thank you as always for coming on. We have receipts now,
so if I ever have time, I'll go back through last year's podcast and
go through the receipts on those. But we do have receipts from when we
do the third annual one. We got through twelve topics here, three of
which were dedicated to the Memphis Grizzlies, obviously, but we did combine the
Calves, Bulls and Timberwolves, so I think that evens out a little bit.
Yeah. Follow Grant on Twitter at GT underscore Hugh's great follow when he
decides to tweet. Does a fantastic job covering the MBA Appleacher Report. As
you know by now, I will be pressuring you again to come on in
the future. I don't know if that will be an annual pod or a
random pod, but I'm excited to see how these takes age, and as
always, thank you so much for jumping on with me. Go Grizzlies,