With laurn Segoland from London and Gerard Reid from Berlin. This is redefining energy
minutes minutes one hundred and thirty two and the number of the day is fifty
five b birthday job. Oh my god, Lauren, that's why you should
be telling people that I was brought up by my grandmother. My grandmother never
told anybody how old she was, and she hit her passport from us to
the day she tied. Try anyway, I'm not like that. Thank you
very much, thank you, good seeing you. Another number, it's two
hundred and this appy anniversary to our friend Paul Chapman with his podcast HC Insider.
It's probably one of the best podcasts when it comes to communities trading.
It's the best commodity podcast out there. It really can only recommend it super
Now. The thing is, it's going to change the NI of the podcast
on Wednesday, But okay, give you the name the new name, And
I said no, no, I can't give you. You know, we've
got to make an announcement. So the current name is HC Insider and the
new name, I don't know. Well we we we shold all the best
with I don't know exactly, Paul. Last message before we bring Dave on
the show, we have the privilege and pleasure to partner with ecosummit Berlin the
fourth and fifth of June. You want to say one or two things like
that, go listen. I've been going to because I'm now for a decade.
And if you want to see innovative businesses in and around clean tech and
Europe, that's the place to go. So I'm glad you're Commonness ye have,
my friend. Yeah, it's the biggest gathering of VC and investors when
it comes to clean tech. So it's where business happens. You've got like
what one hundred speaker they are five minutes each. It's on a beautiful barge
on the Spree River in Berlin. Great. I can't wait to be there.
So listeners, if you want to see the two of us Job doing
his great speech about batteries, the one I heard already four times, I'm
actually your hid in the batteries. That's something different, right, So meet
us in Berlin. The link in our show notes. And now we bring
our guest Dave Jones from Ambert to speak about his new report Global Electricity Review.
And by the way, just to be clear Ember if you haven't heard
them, they're independent energy think tank which really is all about accelerating the clean
energy transition with data and policy. I like their stuff a lot, very
good. Let's bring Dave in the show. Dave, welcome to the show.
Thank you so much. That's so nice to be here. Well,
Dave, you're a bit the star of the moment. You're all over the
media. You've been another podcast. Well, thank you for coming, and
you're going to deliver exactly the right message about your one hundred and ninety one
page global Electricity review. We've grown up to sixty people with a member and
there was a lot of breakpower and the expertise getting into this ones. Yeah,
it was our biggest yet. Dave. I really love the report you
guys do because what you do is you do a great job of visualizing what's
going on in electricity across the world and just tell us your big conclusions from
last year. It's trying to look into specifically twenty twenty three find get that
first global picture together. So we've got twenty twenty three data for ninety countries
across the world. That's ninety two percent of global generation on the twenty twenty
three story were tracking a really interest in tracking that step up in renewable technology,
and we could see that for the first time the renewables provided thirty percent
of global electricity. You add another ten percent for nucle on top of that,
and then you've got sixty percent of the world electricity still coming from fossil
fuels, So we can see that we'rex eting through that, but still with
a big challenge on our hands. We did a lot talking around that step
up in solar as just how fast it's been, and many people would be
so familiar with that story already, but it's nice to actually get country level
data when you piece all of this together. There was a slight rise in
colt and gas, which led to an all time high in power sector emissions,
but that was really due to quite an exceptional year on hydropower. Actually,
structurally there was enough renewables having been built that could have met electricity demand.
So all through to twenty twenty four, we really believe that even as
statistical demand steps up, which is an interesting story in itself, that boom
and renewables is about to come through will really become clear and that we will
see most likely the first time falling PASTECTRA emissions outside of a global recession and
start a new era of falling past sector emissions. Okay, So I'm going
to summarize the gross in demand, which is Canada. The world grows by
a factor of Canada. And if I look at your report, there was
additionally six hundred hour. That's what we had by and large the past twenty
years. So now you're saying demand's going to go much faster than do six
hundred. The second thing you're saying is out of those six hundreds, five
hundred were met by winning solar. So in fact, now almost all of
the additional new power comes from onnerables. So that's what you're saying. Yeah,
you can see that every year that winder is adding more in there,
and each of wind and soiler last year added about one percent to global electricity
demands. That electricity demand grows by about two point two percent just over that
because of that step up that we anticipate from twenty twenty four, even with
higher electricity demand growth of what's probably going to pay around three percent or the
tables three percent that when insider coupled with increasing renewable should be enough to more
than meat that rise to electricity demand and therefore start beginning to reduce fossil electricity
generation. But if I look in the detail, because you do a very
good analysis also country by country, when ninety percent of the gross is China
and there's a bit in India, and if you look at the OECD,
it's stable, if not decreasing, So it seems that there are two stories
out there. There is India China one hand, and pretty much the rest
of the world. Or am I reading this wrong? Yeah, there's a
bit on the demand side. There's quite a difference between what happened last year
and what we expect to start happening this year. So really the energy crisis
has been eating into electricity demand growth in developed countries, especially within the EU.
Electricity demand last year was down six percent from the two years before that,
so that's really been struggling. Specifically for the AU. We think there's
going to be a rebound of two to three percent for this year, in
part because of some of the return in the street demand growth in that those
high energy sectors that led to such a big four in the first place,
but also because of that journey into electrification as electric cars and heat pumps begin
to step up, and the same within the US, where you've had a
couple of years of stored electricity demand that's returning back to growth this year,
so that increasing growth will be coming more from developed countries rather of emerging countries.
Emerging countries will still see that that fast right and growth they've seen already.
The new growth comes from you, It comes from the US, really,
Dave, Can I return to solar there, because if I look from
the outside, my view on solar is that we've just never seen an energy
generation technology come to market as quick as as that. Every year just seems
to that the analysts seem to get the expectations. Rang we just talk about
that phenomenal please, it is really insane and surprising in so many ways,
just as a to the cause of why it's happened. Like though, the
kind of exciting piece for me is how much that's now unlocked from a postal
ambition perspective that didn't exist before. And it's one of the things that we
talk within the report that as you can see that capacity projections coming higher and
higher and higher, it means that when we look forward through to twenty thirty.
What we need to do to really substantially get to the next level of
renewable generation increase is to start seeing big fools in fossil generation. In terms
of how that's come around. There are so many things that have helped unlock
that. So in part it's just a consumers themselves, like having higher electricity
prices they're paying, they've got an opportunity to be generating their own electricity.
You see, like what's happened within Australia when it's completely unprecedented, like so
much of the Australian housing is kind of large houses with good roof area,
amazing sun quality, quite high electricity demand because of air conditioning and now increasingly
electric cars. That there is a reason for that for people to engage on
that. You've got that side, you've got the agropoltech side where you start
building it across the fields and in a way that I hate to say it,
but people had this perception that was kind of industrializing into the countryside.
Now you've got a way to try to integrate it in either from biodiversity perspective
or from a grazing perspective, and that's really changed the outlook for solar on
there where a lot of the kind of concerns around solar farms have gone away
and you can see them pop up. And then of course you've got the
industry side where commercial side, where just put it on rooftops for their own
use makes such sense given the high energy prices that we've seen the last couple
of years. Well, Dave, just talk a little bit about the future
and how you see it. I really feel that that momentum on SIDEO can
continue in part because of that rising battery technology that's coming through that can really
pair so well with solar that now we're not just looking at generation for those
few hours, but around the clock generation and the integration of electric cars as
that comes through. So for me, that's really really exciting, and for
me, that really unlocks a much higher growth rate of renewables coming through,
where people are talking around the dripling of global renewables by twenty thirty. That
really unlocks that possibility. We can see that really start to pay dividends.
In twenty twenty four, we're forecasting a bumper year for renewable generation where you'll
have twice as much to solar generation as we added last year. The reason
for that is so much of that capacity story, but you know about already
that was added towards the end of last year, so it wasn't reflected in
the generation numbers. People can't see that coming through in the numbers already,
and it will really start to hit home this year when people start to see
cold generation full and also gas generation. Well, Dave, I know we
could took four hours about your report. We put the ITG in the show
notes, so people have to read this report, which is full of rich
information, and carry hope that we finally are turning the corner on emissions in
that sector at least. So this is really great and we all thank you
for publishing it. What we've seen so far on the ground is pretty impressive,
but what we'll see coming in the next few years will completely blow people's
socks away. And I really don't think people are ready for what we'll come
next. I love your phrase, stubborn optimism. It's a good way to
end the show. Thank you very much, Dave. Thank you, Thank
you for listening to Redefining Energy. Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe
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