WEBVTT

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With laurn Segoland from London and Gerard
Reid from Berlin. This is redefining energy

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minutes minutes one hundred and thirty two
and the number of the day is fifty

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five b birthday job. Oh my
god, Lauren, that's why you should

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be telling people that I was brought
up by my grandmother. My grandmother never

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told anybody how old she was,
and she hit her passport from us to

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the day she tied. Try anyway, I'm not like that. Thank you

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very much, thank you, good
seeing you. Another number, it's two

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hundred and this appy anniversary to our
friend Paul Chapman with his podcast HC Insider.

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It's probably one of the best podcasts
when it comes to communities trading.

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It's the best commodity podcast out there. It really can only recommend it super

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Now. The thing is, it's
going to change the NI of the podcast

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on Wednesday, But okay, give
you the name the new name, And

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I said no, no, I
can't give you. You know, we've

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got to make an announcement. So
the current name is HC Insider and the

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new name, I don't know.
Well we we we shold all the best

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with I don't know exactly, Paul. Last message before we bring Dave on

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the show, we have the privilege
and pleasure to partner with ecosummit Berlin the

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fourth and fifth of June. You
want to say one or two things like

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that, go listen. I've been
going to because I'm now for a decade.

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And if you want to see innovative
businesses in and around clean tech and

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Europe, that's the place to go. So I'm glad you're Commonness ye have,

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my friend. Yeah, it's the
biggest gathering of VC and investors when

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it comes to clean tech. So
it's where business happens. You've got like

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what one hundred speaker they are five
minutes each. It's on a beautiful barge

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on the Spree River in Berlin.
Great. I can't wait to be there.

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So listeners, if you want to
see the two of us Job doing

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his great speech about batteries, the
one I heard already four times, I'm

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actually your hid in the batteries.
That's something different, right, So meet

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us in Berlin. The link in
our show notes. And now we bring

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our guest Dave Jones from Ambert to
speak about his new report Global Electricity Review.

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And by the way, just to
be clear Ember if you haven't heard

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them, they're independent energy think tank
which really is all about accelerating the clean

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energy transition with data and policy.
I like their stuff a lot, very

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good. Let's bring Dave in the
show. Dave, welcome to the show.

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Thank you so much. That's so
nice to be here. Well,

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Dave, you're a bit the star
of the moment. You're all over the

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media. You've been another podcast.
Well, thank you for coming, and

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you're going to deliver exactly the right
message about your one hundred and ninety one

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page global Electricity review. We've grown
up to sixty people with a member and

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there was a lot of breakpower and
the expertise getting into this ones. Yeah,

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it was our biggest yet. Dave. I really love the report you

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guys do because what you do is
you do a great job of visualizing what's

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going on in electricity across the world
and just tell us your big conclusions from

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last year. It's trying to look
into specifically twenty twenty three find get that

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first global picture together. So we've
got twenty twenty three data for ninety countries

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across the world. That's ninety two
percent of global generation on the twenty twenty

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three story were tracking a really interest
in tracking that step up in renewable technology,

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and we could see that for the
first time the renewables provided thirty percent

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of global electricity. You add another
ten percent for nucle on top of that,

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and then you've got sixty percent of
the world electricity still coming from fossil

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fuels, So we can see that
we'rex eting through that, but still with

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a big challenge on our hands.
We did a lot talking around that step

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up in solar as just how fast
it's been, and many people would be

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so familiar with that story already,
but it's nice to actually get country level

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data when you piece all of this
together. There was a slight rise in

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colt and gas, which led to
an all time high in power sector emissions,

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but that was really due to quite
an exceptional year on hydropower. Actually,

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structurally there was enough renewables having been
built that could have met electricity demand.

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So all through to twenty twenty four, we really believe that even as

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statistical demand steps up, which is
an interesting story in itself, that boom

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and renewables is about to come through
will really become clear and that we will

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see most likely the first time falling
PASTECTRA emissions outside of a global recession and

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start a new era of falling past
sector emissions. Okay, So I'm going

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to summarize the gross in demand,
which is Canada. The world grows by

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a factor of Canada. And if
I look at your report, there was

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additionally six hundred hour. That's what
we had by and large the past twenty

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years. So now you're saying demand's
going to go much faster than do six

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hundred. The second thing you're saying
is out of those six hundreds, five

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hundred were met by winning solar.
So in fact, now almost all of

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the additional new power comes from onnerables. So that's what you're saying. Yeah,

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you can see that every year that
winder is adding more in there,

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and each of wind and soiler last
year added about one percent to global electricity

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demands. That electricity demand grows by
about two point two percent just over that

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because of that step up that we
anticipate from twenty twenty four, even with

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higher electricity demand growth of what's probably
going to pay around three percent or the

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tables three percent that when insider coupled
with increasing renewable should be enough to more

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than meat that rise to electricity demand
and therefore start beginning to reduce fossil electricity

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generation. But if I look in
the detail, because you do a very

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good analysis also country by country,
when ninety percent of the gross is China

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and there's a bit in India,
and if you look at the OECD,

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it's stable, if not decreasing,
So it seems that there are two stories

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out there. There is India China
one hand, and pretty much the rest

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of the world. Or am I
reading this wrong? Yeah, there's a

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bit on the demand side. There's
quite a difference between what happened last year

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and what we expect to start happening
this year. So really the energy crisis

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has been eating into electricity demand growth
in developed countries, especially within the EU.

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Electricity demand last year was down six
percent from the two years before that,

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so that's really been struggling. Specifically
for the AU. We think there's

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going to be a rebound of two
to three percent for this year, in

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part because of some of the return
in the street demand growth in that those

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high energy sectors that led to such
a big four in the first place,

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but also because of that journey into
electrification as electric cars and heat pumps begin

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to step up, and the same
within the US, where you've had a

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couple of years of stored electricity demand
that's returning back to growth this year,

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so that increasing growth will be coming
more from developed countries rather of emerging countries.

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Emerging countries will still see that that
fast right and growth they've seen already.

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The new growth comes from you,
It comes from the US, really,

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Dave, Can I return to solar
there, because if I look from

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the outside, my view on solar
is that we've just never seen an energy

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generation technology come to market as quick
as as that. Every year just seems

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to that the analysts seem to get
the expectations. Rang we just talk about

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that phenomenal please, it is really
insane and surprising in so many ways,

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just as a to the cause of
why it's happened. Like though, the

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kind of exciting piece for me is
how much that's now unlocked from a postal

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ambition perspective that didn't exist before.
And it's one of the things that we

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talk within the report that as you
can see that capacity projections coming higher and

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higher and higher, it means that
when we look forward through to twenty thirty.

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What we need to do to really
substantially get to the next level of

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renewable generation increase is to start seeing
big fools in fossil generation. In terms

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of how that's come around. There
are so many things that have helped unlock

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that. So in part it's just
a consumers themselves, like having higher electricity

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prices they're paying, they've got an
opportunity to be generating their own electricity.

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You see, like what's happened within
Australia when it's completely unprecedented, like so

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much of the Australian housing is kind
of large houses with good roof area,

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amazing sun quality, quite high electricity
demand because of air conditioning and now increasingly

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electric cars. That there is a
reason for that for people to engage on

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that. You've got that side,
you've got the agropoltech side where you start

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building it across the fields and in
a way that I hate to say it,

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but people had this perception that was
kind of industrializing into the countryside.

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Now you've got a way to try
to integrate it in either from biodiversity perspective

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or from a grazing perspective, and
that's really changed the outlook for solar on

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there where a lot of the kind
of concerns around solar farms have gone away

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and you can see them pop up. And then of course you've got the

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industry side where commercial side, where
just put it on rooftops for their own

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use makes such sense given the high
energy prices that we've seen the last couple

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of years. Well, Dave,
just talk a little bit about the future

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and how you see it. I
really feel that that momentum on SIDEO can

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continue in part because of that rising
battery technology that's coming through that can really

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pair so well with solar that now
we're not just looking at generation for those

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few hours, but around the clock
generation and the integration of electric cars as

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that comes through. So for me, that's really really exciting, and for

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me, that really unlocks a much
higher growth rate of renewables coming through,

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where people are talking around the dripling
of global renewables by twenty thirty. That

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really unlocks that possibility. We can
see that really start to pay dividends.

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In twenty twenty four, we're forecasting
a bumper year for renewable generation where you'll

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have twice as much to solar generation
as we added last year. The reason

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for that is so much of that
capacity story, but you know about already

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that was added towards the end of
last year, so it wasn't reflected in

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the generation numbers. People can't see
that coming through in the numbers already,

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and it will really start to hit
home this year when people start to see

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cold generation full and also gas generation. Well, Dave, I know we

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could took four hours about your report. We put the ITG in the show

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notes, so people have to read
this report, which is full of rich

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information, and carry hope that we
finally are turning the corner on emissions in

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that sector at least. So this
is really great and we all thank you

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for publishing it. What we've seen
so far on the ground is pretty impressive,

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but what we'll see coming in the
next few years will completely blow people's

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socks away. And I really don't
think people are ready for what we'll come

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next. I love your phrase,
stubborn optimism. It's a good way to

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end the show. Thank you very
much, Dave. Thank you, Thank

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you for listening to Redefining Energy.
Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe

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