What is krack Alack and fellow thermonuclear aff as I am Dan fa Valley, joined by my certified fantabulous co host Grant Hughes. I lied and said we were gonna drop our awards and all NBA pods to start this week when you're listening to this, hopefully on a Monday or Tuesday. It's just too hard right now. We will do it. We will reconvene after the season's over or right before it's over, when we have more information everything from All MBA to Defensive Player of the Year to MVP, Like you know, Coach of the Year is kind of locked up, and that's really about it. They were too tough. So we decided to do a podcast. Basically, we were wrong and we were sorry. The Mayakopa Podcast. We are gonna go back and revisit our over unders that we did to see how well or poorly we performed, and then we'll look at you some of our biggest misses and try and get into well, like what the fuck are we thinking? Might also be a fun pod. We'll have to get listeners licitation. Maybe I'll throw something out on Twitter. Give us the prediction that you missed on the most and then we can go through those uh at a later time if we have time, or I can do that by myself. But grant the question that I have to ask, and I don't want to be wrong about this. They answer this question, how the heck are you? I'm doing well? I will say, as you're saying, as you were mentioning looking at the all NBA stuff in any awards, Uh, you know, picks And it's not like there's a lot of season left right there's one? Is there? Like ten days season? Yeah? Five games? Yeah, some teams have four I think, And it's like, nope, too soon. Can't make a decision. I can't do it. I mean I need uh this like next ten days like most of which probably you know, who knows how competitive some of these remains things like how much do these games? They might matter for seeding, But like you have to look at the competition of the Wizards are done, like they end up play like they've just decided, Hey, we're not going to play the people that matter for the most part, which is weird, Like, well, I don't feel that confident about almost any of them. The Wizards are are an interesting one. But it's like you know the bulls, How easy or difficult should the bulls look on a team's remaining schedule, because you know they're not a good team. They're tenth in the East. They are not going to slip out of the plane probably, but they probably would like to try to catch Toronto or like, so are the bulls? Like if you're going through and going like red, yellow or green on the remaining games for each team to try to figure out what the standings will look like. I don't know what to do with like fifty percent of the teams because either they're bad and still trying, or they're not good and or they're good and they're not trying. Like it's it's still so it's too early. That's that's the takeaway from all that. It is not too early to see where we were most right or where we were most wrong. And I'm not going to share this green because we have so much going on in the dot I think would confuse the funk out of people. But so I'll go first. I finished, if you want to bet with us next time. I went twenty and ten on over unders this year. Most some of this is based on projections, like the Wizards, I think we're the only one where it's okay, like they're really trying to lean into the tank so they might wind up missing. So it could be nineteen and eleven. But I finished twenty and ten. What did you end up finishing yet? I was nineteen and eleven, and I think as we were going through this, I was undone by a couple things. One is like one is my faith in the Warriors, no surprise to anybody that's listening to this. And where else I think that what are the other differentiators? Like the Spurs. I thought the Spurs would be better and they have been the opposite of better, and you were correct about that. But yeah, not pretty pretty good though overall, like basically a two thirds success rate. Yeah, so you should definitely financially invest in us next time, really please please don't do that's bend your money on smarter things. But I was I thought this year, of all years, I thought I would have done terrible. To be honest, like I've been over five hundred, this will be I think the third or fourth year in a row, and this is the first year that you were able to do this with me. But like I just assumed I didn't look at them. I was like, oh, I definitely went like eleven and nineteen or something. Yeah. No, I have a distinct memory of when we were like trying to put these together before the season and having like so little confidence about so many of these teams. There were just a couple locks, and I think actually some of some of our missus were we thought locks. So so it's not like we go into these with high levels of confidence generally speaking. But yeah, no, this was a good exercise. Do you want to start out, I have the biggest miss on the board, maybe all start Should we do it that? I was gonna say, let's start with the we'll go with the positive. Well I guess there. However you do it, these are the teams that we ended up missing the most on. We might have hit that over under, but we did our own win projections. So these are the teams that outperformed our expectations the most based off our predictions. The best way to frame it, so please take us through your gargangin miss the biggest on the board by a lot, by a lot. I had the Thunder winning nineteen games this year, and I'm gonna miss They're on pace to make me wrong by more than nineteen game by double, they're on pace to make me wrong by twenty two games. Because as I think, as we've gamed it out here, they're on pace for forty point five wins. So let's round it up and give them forty one and hit me for a twenty two miss there. What was the calculus? Come on? Why'd you wasn't it that they were going to be very good? I imagine that we did this after the chet Homegrin injury, And I also imagine that my thought process was, if anybody's willing to steer into a tank for I guess this would be a third a third year in a row, it would be the Thunder, maybe just the second year. Anyway, I thought that if any team had the stomach for just losing on purpose, it would be the Thunder. And I thought that Homegrin being injured was just, you know, more of a reason to do that. Obviously. The misses in addition to that were Sha Gil just Alexander or being an MVP candidate for the entire year, and Jaleen Williams being much better than anybody expected, Josh Giddy getting better, Isaiah Joe being a scrap heap, you know, instant instant spacing on offense. What else was wrong? The other Jalen Williams is a good defender at leaves the league in charge is taken. I'm sure I didn't have any inkling of like what kind of player he was even going to be at the point we did this. So just kind of across the board, but ultimately the Thunder just not tanking and in a lot of ways being too good to tank. So, yeah, big miss by me. I'm trying to what did you so? This was a This was a miss for you? It is also your biggest miss, but just nowhere close to the level of error that I hit. Yeah, I had them been twenty four winds, which would put me off by it's fifteen plus it's seventeen, and I'm just pretty much with you. We definitely did this after chet home Gran injury, but I don't know, like how much would that have changed our impressions of the Thunder. We probably just assumed that they would maybe not shut people down, but just they would be worse than expected because they were so reliant on a bunch of unproven dudes. You know, I don't think either of us were high on Josh Giddy. Did we see this coming? We both didn't know enough about Jaylen Williams clearly, so I think that all factored into it, and we expected some of the would also I think fucked with some of these projections is we expected some of the quote unquote top end West teams to be better than they actually were. Yeah, that's another big one. I mean, we did not foresee, and I don't know than anybody did, the level of parody that we had this year, because you would assume that, you know, for picking wind totals as low as we did here where I was in the teens and you were at twenty four, you gotta just you're pricing in that, you know, there's eight or nine really good teams in the West that are just gonna beat up on the thunder. And it turned out there were really like there was one consistently really good team in the West all year, and that's Denver. Everybody else has had rough streaks, so that that hurt too. What do we have next? You both missed the second most on the Jazz. I was off by fourteen fourteen projected wins. You were off by fifteen projected wins. Neither of us had them winning more than twenty five games. I in retrospect, I will say this, that is probably egregious on our part to have been that far off, because I know that the thought process was they're not going to be interested in winning. But they really would have need to have leaned into the tank from day one because their collection of talent didn't necessarily make sense. And no one saw this coming from lowry market and I definitely I was pretty low and Walker Kessler coming into the season, so that explains part of my reasoning. But they had real NBA talent peppered up and down the roster. The assumption was, at least for me, and I don't know why it was this way, because I know the league works. Oh, they're going to trade everybody immediately where it's not play guys, and that's not how trades work. It's always happening later in the season. And so I still would have been lower on them than this. But me coming in at twenty five wins in retrospect feels kind of like, oh, idiot, Well, so I don't think this one's as bad as our thunder miss. I think I think part of it for me is I think we knew about I think we had seen the Wemban Yama Gigi League Ignite games at this point, I think, And that really was, you know, kind of a pivotal moment for this season, or at least in terms of how I was thinking about it, because there was then suddenly this undeniable you have. If you have a chance to get the best possible lottery odds this year, you gotta do it because this guy's so great. So I think I remember I remember believing that first of all, because this is the first year of a rebuild for the Jazz, there would be more of a stomach for you know, we're gonna sit guys, We're gonna trade everybody, uh and and you know it's going to be sort of it's acceptable to just egregiously, you know, postmark this season and mail it in because of just you just traded, you know, your whole roster. So that I was part of the thinking. And if you're gonna do it, like any respectable rebuild, if you're really trying to bottom out, you gotta go for this pick to try to get win Vinyama and they just the players they got back, and those trades were just too good. That was really what it is. We spent the whole year talking about is it too late, is it too late for the Jazz to pivot into the tank? And it was I guess, I guess that's really what it was is. I thought for sure that this would be the team that had the most incentive and was set up where it made the most sense to just be awful, and they could. They just had too many good players that it didn't work. And that's where I think the why the misfields egregious. It is because the belief had to be and I think we actually said it would be this way. I Jazz fans were worried they would be too good. I sat here, I told them, But we thought they would trade out of it. We thought they wouldn't. If they're any good, they'll change the roster. We thought those moves never happened early in the season because even if they're willing to sell, there's like the buyers are still kind of like, well, we don't know, like what we like if we want to give up this much. So that for me personally, I'm just saying I sat here told Josh has no trader, Danny will just demolish the team I designed. If they're too good, he and look even as they've tried to be worse, the Loarry market injury now kind of just ensures that they're out of it, and they were always tracking towards out of it. I had some we had some jazz fans on the YouTube act just saying, well, they're not really tanking, and like, no, the players aren't going on the court and trying to lose, but look at who they were playing and the injury reports before the marketing actual injury, they were tanking. So that was a pretty big miss. Who was your Do we have the third? We have the same third biggest miss as well, although I will say now now I'm I'm missing less badly. All my really bad misses are out of the way, and so I'm just trying to make myself look better because you did win the over unders and you have and you have, but you have slightly worse misses going forwards. And I will, yeah, I will say anything that's over ten or ten or more feels like it's pretty bad. And I have in this category, I have won more than you. But we are on the Sacramento Kings, and to be clear, we both hit there over which I think was their over under was it was wildly low. They were at thirty three and a half. That was an easy I had them at thirty seven wins, though you had them at thirty nine. That's a miss. What I guess I should explain myself as the person who had the bigger miss here. I don't know, Okay, I think I really just I didn't anticipate the Manta Sabonis being this good. Daron Fox. I've been you know, I've been at Daron Fox believer, but I've grown to distrust that he could play this way over the course of an entire season. It's always been in these sometimes extended pockets, but never just an entire year of just dominance. We saw that from him. I wasn't super high on the Sabonis fit from a spacing perspective, but we knew when we did this that the King surrounded them with a ton of shooting. I think I had questions about their defense, and rightfully so. They've been one of the five worst defensive teams in the league basically, but I did not see their offense being this because, like, I didn't see this from a league monk that I see Keegan Murray having an immediate impact like he has liked. I was. I guess I was indifferent to a little down on the Kevin Hurder trade, and now knowing what we know about the twenty twenty four draft class and this King's team, that was a home run. So I missed there. And what I will say, while their defensive standing is pretty poor, the fact that they get teams to work deep into the shot clock they hit the defensive glass. I think that has allowed that they're not foiling a ton. That has allowed them to just put themselves in a position to win more games. In general. Yeah, your defense is bad, but your offense is so good. And also you are gobbling up some of the low hanging fruit on defense. I never would have anticipated them checking that many like the defensive shot profile box too. I never would have projected them checking that many boxes. And so yes, I hit the over missing by more than ten wins on them though. That's you know, let's I gotta eat some crow. If I had anything here, I would eat it. Yeah, I crow's probably pretty pretty gamy. I don't know. We gotta think of a different Although you don't want to enjoy eating crow because it's it's a bad thing. Here's what the food that isn't like too disgusting. But we could say here and eat it when we're wrong that we don't like it. Would We'll have to figure out for now. Yeah, I don't know. So I wasn't much better than you. I also had the over I think we both felt good about the over right, just because I was just like yeah, and priced into that. I think too was we really thought that there were going to be a handful of very, very terrible teams in the West, and those teams are still below the Kings. They just weren't quite as bad. So that was part of it for me. I mean, you hit most of it. I think I just kind of tried to zoom out, and the main things were I could see a way where the Kings would have like a top five or top ten offense. I did not anticipate them having the highest offensive rating in NBA history, even if offense is up like that was that was not on my radar. And then I thought that their defense would be bottom five and that that would ultimately balance out to like, yeah, you're gonna be a little under five hundred. It was was kind of where I figured that would that would end up, and that was wrong, because their offense is just about as good as it is, as good as any we've ever seen. I think the other things that I don't know cause me to sell the King short were Mike Brown's you know, you just you just never know. I mean, Mike Brown has more of a head coaching track record than a lot of guys that were assistant and then move into the big chair because he's you know, he's coaching Cleveland and the Lakers and had some really good teams and I think he made the finals even but I just wasn't sure that he was going to be a real difference maker. And I guess if you're going to credit anybody for the King's just beautiful, like highly functional offense, probably it's probably him. And then Sabonus is right there because you can't do all this without him as the hub. So underestimated both of those guys. Fox in the clutch too, That's not something I would have predicted. No, and I mean you shouldn't because you should never try to expect clutch luck. But that's been big. He's been the best clutch scorer in the league by like a ton and he's got thirty, like thirty some odd or maybe even fifty more points than anybody else total. Yeah, they're just they're just way way better offensively. I think that's the difference, right, because defense is about what we expected minus some of the peripherals looking good. But it's just that their offense was so much better than than anybody thought. So you've got you've got another double digital here. I'm gonna let you go with that one to lead us in. I was off, but this was also your fourth biggest miss as well, so we had we were very in lockstep. Now are we will have some divergence on the fifth. I was off by thirteen wins on the Indiana Pacers. I had them winning twenty two. They're on pace to win about thirty five. You had them winning twenty seven. I'm sure I went on this pot. I should have re listened to our over underpot. I'm sure I went on the podcast at the time and said they will trade Miles Turner Russell Westbrook might have a dead salary gap in on this pod. Yeah, by then, Buddy Heeled won't be on the team. I probably definitely was underestimating what they were gonna get from Andrew Nemharden, Bennedic Mathrown. I never saw those guys coming in. I think even when you look at the talent on this roster, I might have not predicted Tyrs Haliburton would contend for an All NBA birth, but I would have if you told me that was happening, I wouldn't have just been like, oh, it was just I was apparently too low on the rest of the roster and even getting good minutes recently, not recently, but for much of the season from Aaron A. Smith on defense if he ever has like any on ball offense whatsoever, that they just sort to find a wing here. I was probably just of the belief that, hey, maybe the offense does end up being good, but you're not going to finish the season with Miles Turner, so you're gonna suck something awful and look, to my defense, there's no defense here. But in my defense, we saw how bad they were without Tyres Haliburton during that stretch, so he was very much I then underestimate I guess the impact he would actually have on them, that he'd be able to carry a team that is clearly not built to win twenty seven games without him to such a you know, borderline play in birth. Yeah, I think so I missed this by eight, which is to say the Pacers are gonna win about eight more games than I figured they would. It really is another case, kind of like Utah, where I just thought the trades were coming. I think that's a big factor because I can't remember now how early the Lakers two firsts and Russ for Miles Turner and Buddy Healed rumor or whatever day one of the off season last year, maybe right, So I think I imagine that was in the back of my mind. And if you lose those two guys, then you know, I guess had that happened, you still would have had Matherin being much better than most people thought, especially early in the year they banked a bunch of wins. Then, I think the other thing that I didn't see coming, although I was just backing up a little bit, I'm pretty sure it's out there somewhere that when the Haliburton Sabonis trade happened, I'm pretty sure I felt, and kind of still feel that Haliburton is just maybe is and is gonna be a better player than Darren Fox. I don't feel like that has turned out to be wrong necessarily. Fox probably has a better shot at all NBA. But Haliburton is maybe going to be the first guy to ever average twenty and ten and shoot forty percent from deep. He's a little short on the threes right now, but I like him better as a cornerstone, and he just was phenomenal when he when he played. And related to that, Rick Carlisle actually let this team run, which is something he and it didn't do that last year after the trade. But I couldn't trust anything down you know, I never believe in like Anthony Simons was really awesome down the stretch last year. What happened? You know, you can't you can never trust that stuff or I rarely do. So, Yeah, I missed on play style, missed on the trade. Stuff just not happening. And I think that's really that's really most of it. I mean, they're still they're still not gonna, you know, be in in the plan, but we were. We were both way too low on the facers. You had the well, actually I had the next biggest miss. So my next biggest miss was by seven wins on the Celtics, who I had winning forty nine games. Uh, that is going to make me look ultra foolish. I'm very curious as to what my logic was. I bet I remember was it. It wasn't just that Emadka incident? Was it? I think? So this is me? And since we've been having such group thinks so far, I bet we at least discussed this. Udoka was one because I think I think I anyway credited him largely for the way their defense changed over the course of last year, which I don't know. It could have been in some assistant like whoever really knows who's got the ideas. Could have been Joe Mazzula maybe, but I figured that, Okay, he was the guy that really turned the Celtics into the team that made the finals because he let Robert Williams roam around and they just change, you know, they changed their defensive structure and that was such a big deal. So Audoka means something. And losing a coach like just you know, right before the season had to matter. And then Williams was hurt, right, Williams was going to miss a bunch of time to start the year. I think that those two things were like I missed two I was I was going to be four wins off. So it's not like it's not like we're that far apart. But I think that's that's gotta be it. I can't think of anything else that was would have been such a factor there. I think maybe also just being infected by their formants in the finals, where they were committing a bunch of turnovers and it looked too I'm right about this. It's just I didn't anticipate them. Their shot making variabilities still exists, but they started off the season having the best offense known to man. Everyone's hitting threes, and we've now seen when you don't have Robert Williams the third in the line up, they do struggle to generate rim pressure. It's just a better team than expect. And also I didn't anticipate the Derek White type of season that he had, and we definitely recorded this way after the Malcolm Brockton trade. And so I'm just looking at it like, was I just trying to come up with wins from somewhere else to give to like Philly, or because we're going through the winds, I was probably trying to give wins to Denver or thought some teams were too low. It was just a bad miss. And I think I definitely underestimated and we've seen them go through lulls, but I definitely underestimated their offense because even Jayson Tatum, he's been one of the worst pull up jump shooters in the league this year. Did you know that he's like he's at sub thirty percent effective field goal percentage. That is bad when you're looking at the volume in which he takes them. But he's been able, he's been getting to the line more, and so I definitely underestimate that Jalen Brown as well. So I just this one's an inexcusable one. It's not my biggest miss, but in retrospect, I would love to know. And I doubt I explained it saying who I took the like was trying to give wins too. This was a bad miss. This was a bad miss. I mean, you can't beat yourself up too bad, because look, you picked forty nine wins. They're probably gonna win fifty five or fifty six. Like, all right, Well, my whole thing was so I missed on there, you hit there, Well, no, you actually missed. You went under because they're over under. Was at fifty three and a half, yeah, notwifty two you have at forty nine. Yeah, So I said, maybe it's not egregious, but I was definitely lower on the Celtics than even now. Just like now, the Bucks are gonna beat the Celtics, Like never mind, Boston has the best net rating in the NBA, only team with the top five offensive defense. No, the Bucks are just gonna beat the Celtics. And so have I gone. I haven't gone full Grizzlies on the Celtics yet, but apparently I'm tracking in that direction. God help him if you do, because they're never going to recover from that. So my next miss, which you actually missed the same amount on, was the Knicks, and they are gonna win theoretically based on their current pace, although I don't know what Julius Randall's injury is going to do to that. Six more games than I thought. We both had them at forty one and forty one, and they're gonna get up there around forty seven probably. I'm not sure what the thinking was for me on that. I just I guess they seemed to me like, well, I guess the differences. I was kind of out on Julius Randall. I thought Julius Randall from last year was kind of closer to the real thing than the All NBA won the year prior, and I thought we'd get maybe something in the middle. And I mean, and also I didn't think Jalen Brunson was going to be this good. That those are probably the two main differences. And I also probably wouldn't have foreseen that that this would be an offensive team. That was a surprise. So yeah, it's probably really just comes down to I didn't believe in Randall and was wrong about that, and I thought Bronson would be good or solid and not, but not like a guy who basically I was was one of the best guards in the league. I think that's really that's really about it, because you know, the difference between five hundred and like a forty six forty seven win season is not enormous. It was definitely Julius Rando for me. We talked about that, and then we talked about in the getting at the beginning of the season, how I think did we buy into it earlier we bought into it later. I can't even remember Jen Bronson I was never had anything to do with the price and we both went over by the way, so it's like we went under. There were total we went over. That was one of our locks, I'm sure. But I was not a supporter of the machinations that went into getting Jalen Brunson at the time because I didn't think he was gonna be this good. I thought the money was fine, that it just didn't make sense. And then I was wrong again when it came to the Josh Hart trade. I'm like, did you really need to give a first round pick for a soon to be free agent? And it turns out like, yeah, that worked out really well for them. I also did not you know, Emmanuel quickly has slowly grown but gradually grown defensively, I didn't see this, and I certainly didn't even see the offensive growth from him number two. Like the stuff that he's able to do inside the arc. Now, I wouldn't say it's night and day, but it's more efficient from what he was able to do last season, and you know, just compounding variables of well, look now they got like they were stretches of the season where they got great minutes from deduced mcfride Quentin Grimes. Defensively, I know his offen has been all over the place. RJ. Barrett's probably been He's probably missed my expectations. I expected more from him this year. Mitchell Robinson has been a lot better than I expected, which offsets Hartenstein not being I bet you we both talked about oh Hartenstein because because it was you'd think about the two contracts for those centers, like in conjunction with oh, Robinson's overpaid, Hartenstein's underpaid. He's the best backup center in the league. I think we we're basically wrong on both of those. But they sort of balanced each other out because Hartenstein, to my eye, wasn't as good as I expected him to be and Robinson was better. Right, And look, Hartenstein's gotten a little bit better lately. Wherever there's almost those flit flip the switch was like, oh I can defensive rebound now, But yeah, I'm with you. So that was another miss they have I did. I ended up protecting that it would hit fifty wins though when they were going through that streak, and I'm gonna miss on that too. So I've just been wrong about the Knicks from all angles. It's been a wild year for you with respect to the Knicks, because you also famously agitated for Tips to get fired and then for fifty wins. But look, I can't complain because I have I have a an egregious Warriors myth miss, and so I'm worse than you with respect. These are the teams that were so we're going to get into now we are heading into the territory of these teams were much worse than expected relative to our wind projections. And you had the biggest miss here. So I had some in the middle, some pretty beefy misses more so than you, but you had some pretty wild like you had the worst misses on either end of the taproom. Yeah, I've got by far the worst underestimation and worst overestimation. I guess not by far on the overestimation because anyway, But so the Warriors are my biggest miss. I had them down for fifty five wins. That's gonna miss by twelve, probably based on their current pace. Yeah, I mean, where do you even start. I wonder if Draymond had punched Pool at the time that we did this, and if that had would have a few. I think that made Jordan Pool kind of suck. I think it messed up the whole team. I mean, I think. I think Steve Kerr talked about it on Tim Cawacami's podcast within the last couple of days, just he said, you know, that messed up our chemistry and the whole vibe, and Draymond would tell you the same thing was it was I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it. I mean, certainly that's not I don't know if that's the biggest reason I missed. I think, really what happened, the main thing was I didn't think it was gonna be that hard to replace what Peyton and what Auto Porter provided because I thought, and now, I mean, I think cominga now over the last like month or so, has that he is a replacement for that, and maybe is even better on the Porter one. And Peyton's back on the team, believe it or not in a roundabout way, but he hasn't been a contributor. And then I think Wiggins missing all this time has been a big factor. Missing time too, missed time. I think You've gotten more than you could have hoped for from Thompson. Green has been about as good, like the high end of your expectations. Looney has been the same. I think, yeah, Devin Channel has been awesome in his role basically, which is, you know, it's limited, but I think I think it's just a combination of things. I think if if I had it to do again, I'm not sure how differently I think about it because it's hard to price in. Another big issue, which is they just have not summoned like the intensity, the urgency, the attention to detail, all that, all that stuff that is real flimsy and ephemeral and hard to quantify has not been there for most of the year. And that's been the biggest issue on the road. So yeah, I don't know a lot of things went into a missed this big. It's hard to I slate any one particular one. Maybe the Wiggins thing. I think we may be under selling his value to the team. I just I think it boils down to and there are myriad reasons why it's like this, did they fucking suck on the road, And that's just I did not see them winning, you know, as we're recording, there's they're nine in twenty nine away from Chase, Like that's I just and the defense has been so bad when they're when they're on the road, and I don't think I could have foreseen that either, and maybe you know, we didn't price in enough, like he said GP two leaving and then he comes back, which doesn't play immediately anyway. I guess we could have predicted that, yes, Steph might miss some time. I just think lay Thomps has been better than I thought he was gonna be, though, even by my low standards for Jordan Pool, and I know he's picked up a little bit, but like he's been worse. We think we got to talk about him. I didn't. Yeah, I think, are you finally ready to abandon ship? I think this is some background. Grant wouldn't trade Jordan Poole for shake Gil just Alexander? Is that true? That's the thing is I had to add skif that was true or not. So I was like, you could have said, oh, yeah, it's documented, and I might have had to believe you. Here's the thing. Pool has been really really bad, inefficient offensively, turning it over just goes into the and one mixtape tour like way too often with good shooters open and he just tries to do too much. Is an atrocious defender, has been for most of the year. There are times when he plays within I think I tweeted about this, which is rare when he plays like as a part of the Warriors chaotic offensive system and is getting off the ball quickly and not and all that, and he's part of it and he's not like chaos all by himself, which is what he's been for most of the year. It works, and it worked in the playoffs last year, and and it works occasionally. You know, again the second half against New Orleans the other night, it worked then. So it's like the theory is still sort of there, but he's just been so bad, so much worse, and so like he's been a damaging player, like, you know, like a net negative player for a huge stretch of minutes in a role that they really needed him to be helpful, especially with Curry missing time. I think so, so yeah, Pool Pool being you know, even if you weren't super high on him being probably worse than almost anyone would have expected. It's got to be a big It's not twelve wins worth of miss but it's some of them, maybe two or three. I'm gonna set the over under what are the what are the odds that Jordan Pool is on the Warriors to start next season, and I will set it at sixty one point five percent. Oh, I was gonna say it was a coin flip, So I guess I have to go under that because i'd say it's I'm going to mark this down. I'm gonna start. I'm starting the sheet. We can go back and look at these, I will date it. Can you vamp a little bit so I can start that up? Well, you know, I think I think it's well, First of all, why is that a worthwhile question? One? If the Warriors are going to try it? One, well, one pool has been bad and like the relationship between him and say Draymond might just be something that well, on the outer, you know, looking at it from the outside, it looks okay. They seem to have gotten past all this stuff. But I don't know if you ever really are going to get over that. So that's one. Two is if the Warriors want to fundamentally improve this team, he's kind of the salary they got to move and they haven't been able to do that this year because of his extension and the poison pill stuff. So you can move him this offseason, and if you're looking for another wing or just another guy that's going to be more of a fit as opposed to you're gonna live or die by if he's making difficult shots. He's the guy that you have to trade because you're not trading stuff, not trading Clay. Couldn't trade Clay with his contract. I don't think you trade Wiggins. Draymond has a player option. I don't know what you do with that, but you're not You're probably not trading him without causing a riot with Steph and Clay. So yeah, Pools the guy, right, there's an extremely logical case coming from a lot of angles to move him. That's and let's with this placause I don't want to be too dunked on about it. Will Jordan Poo'll be on the Warriors to start next season and I said fifty fifty. I'm I'm just gonna say no, that'll be my appredication. I think they'll look and there'll be a lot of rumors about it, but I again, it's a coin flip. I would be so far from shocked if they traded him. But if he ends up on the roster again, it's probably because all the veterans said we want him, and because Klay Thompson. Everybody defends him. All the players defend him in press conferences. You notice that, right, who was more likely to be on the Warriors next season, Draymond or Pool. Oh, Draymond, I think, which is crazy because he can be a free agent, so I don't know how much confidence. So you basically gave a non answer. I'm putting you in as a yes, you think he'll be on the Warriors next season, He'll be on the Warriors. The Warriors were not my biggest miss, but they were among my biggest misses. They were my second biggest miss here in the category of teams that underachieved relative expectations. My biggest miss you did miss bigger on this team. Though I was off by ten wins on the Detroit Pistons, you were off by eleven. So it was it was super close, I think, and we can use the Kake Cunningham injuries an excuse, but they feel like they were tracking towards this direction a little bit anyway at the time. So but I just think I looked at one. They're big man set up. Since James Wiseman, Fray has been better than I expected. But I don't think I saw their frontline rotation just being as poor in general as it was, and Jalen Durn might have even exceeded expectations. Feels like it's been a subdued year from Isaiah Stewart. They end up trading Sadiq Bay who wasn't playing incredibly well for them. They got great minutes from Alec Burst and bowing on Badanovitch. But this team is just so you know, they start the season, they're switching a ton on defense that didn't look great. Jay and Ivy had a really, really bad start to the year. He's picked it up as of late. And I just thought I looked at the talent and I don't think I didn't account for a Kake Cunningham missing basically the entire most of the year. And then also I thought Jay and Ivy was gonna be better right off the bat. I thought having Boyad Bogdanovich was going to be and he was great for the team overall, I just thought it was going to translate into more of a difference. And I watched this team, I'll be honest, not so much lately because there hasn't been as many reasons to watches. I'm trying to keep up with more important situations I'm sorry that a sixty lost team is fun a little bit by the wayside for me. I watched them, and I'm like, I don't know whether it be more concerned long term about their offense or their defense. I think I skewed towards looking at the players on the roster, I think I just skewed towards defense. Yeah, but I don't if they want to stick with this dual big stuff. I don't know how Like, I just don't know if it's I don't know if they have the personnel yet to make that work defensively. As my point, yeah, I think the Ivy piece of it is interesting because I thought it's weird. I kind of these ideas sort of seemed to conflict, Like one, I thought that he is the type I totally justified. I thought the Kings should have taken him instead of Murray, which is I don't know. That might not turn out to be wrong, because the reason I thought that was, you know, Ivy has the athleticism and the ceiling of maybe this guy's a superstar, but then at this at the same time, one of the best ways to just lose a lot is to have a rookie point guard that just the game is way too fast for him play a lot, and that is what happened. I think the Cunningham piece is part of it. But I feel like we both looked at this team and thought, well, I mean, they got Bogdanovich. That's weird, so it seems like they're trying to win, and they, you know, they have guys like Burkes and Bay and Cunningham. I think you would look at as like, you know, a fairly polished and very good young player. So it seemed to me like they weren't going to be steering it. And I feel like Troy Weaver too, had said some things that just kind of distinguished the Pistons from the Utahs and the oka Cs and you know Houston for example, where it's just like there's clearly no interest in trying to win here seemed like and uh, that's just not how it went. So yeah, we both missed there. I missed one win worse than you we should. Also, the other thing is just like they kind of leaned into it sooner than every other team did. And I'm not not in our defense, but like, looking at the time, Alec Burks has now missed Arian Madanovitch. How Nudiallo getting injured, I think we could have predicted. I didn't see him being so important or useful to the team. I also didn't see him then missing all that time. And so they've just been a you know, compiling compilation of all these absences, which you know you have to try and figure out that. But it's been not it's been over killed to the point that they kind of accepted their fate sooner than you know, when you talk about Houston and San Antonio accepting their fates, Detroit wasn't in that. It didn't seem like a began the season and that tier, like you said, that's what separated them, you know, from a Utah, And once it became clear that they might be in that tier, they seemed to accept their fate sooner than Charlotte, for instance. Yeah, I think and again, this would have been different it had some some lay stayed healthy. But maybe the takeaway for when we do this next time is if there is a team that is going to give a ton of minutes to a rookie point guard and a rookie center, it's gonna be really hard for that team to be good on either end. Like that's just the growing pains are too severe. So yeah, we've got to keep an eye out when we do this next year for teams in that situation. So my next, let's do can we do my? I have two missus tied here? Well, actually the Pistons are tied for it. This is I'm trying to think this isn't probably as bad as the Warriors missed. But I missed on the Wolves by eleven games, or projected to miss on them by eleven games. And I think we both we both believe that at the very least Minnesota is going to be a really dangerous regular season team. I think I had them finishing like third in the conference. I have to go find that somewhere and winning what fifty two games I guess would be. Yeah, whatever it is, I was, I was way off. I had them winning. I missed with you, by the way. I had them winning forty nine. So I missed by them by eight, not as much as you, but you had them at fifty two. We were both in agreement, you apparently more so than I. I just assumed they were gonna be a regular season Juggnai And look, but I'm sorry to interrupt you that, but even if Carl Anthony Towns had played the entire year, it was not tracking in that direction. I know I missed on the go Bear trade. I missed then on the I have to give my Maia couple here because Wolves fans were mad at me for giving them a D on the trade regrades. I missed on the Mike Conley trade. I just I looked at the Angel Russell's individual town I still believe it. Conley's just such a better fit for this roster when you have to look at just like and I bet if we went and looked at the touch time when I haven't, the ball is just picking around so much faster, and they're making quicker decisions. And I think it's Chris Finch has been the one that's kind of throwing shade, like yeah, now we just don't have like defensive week point. Yeah, like right, get on the Angelo Russell on his way at all? Right, Yeah, No, I I liked Conley better than Russell. I think. I don't know if I might have said at some point like I just think Conley's a better player full stop right now, just you know, obviously aren't the same. But but that's I mean that doesn't that doesn't affect this. It's just I think, and it's weird that, like a lot of stuff kind of went pretty well, like Edwards got better and made an All Star game. I think Jaden McDaniels, we have to see view as a guy that might make a hundred million dollars this summer. I was about to say, it's not his max is like thirty five point two or is it thirty three point two, whatever it is, I it would not shock me if he got it. I guess you don't extend him at that number because you might as well let him hit free and see what happens. I do think you extend him at four for one hundred or like four for one oh five or one ten. I didn't yeh. Look, his max is thirty three point five projected to be at If he's willing to sign for twenty five, just some team will give him unless he has a terrible year, he will get the max. And so I think even if four one ten, four one fifteen, I'm just pouncing on it right now, I would do it. I would too. And so that went well too, And and I guess like the Towns thing matters if you're trying, if I'm trying to like make excuses, it's not going to make up for eleven wins off. But I do think that had he stayed healthy, maybe just the reps and the integration process between him and Gobert and everybody else like might have had would it would have been better than him just not playing for that many games. So I think I think that really was a big factor. And I think just Gobert being so bad offensively, you know the video of the King's Bench when he hit the fade away as off. I mean, he's a rough watch offensively, like the just losing balls out of bounds and just getting in the way. And then all I can see it now even post Conley, just like the hands have gotten worse. It looks like he's trying to catch and dribble a tennis ball, right. It's it's not a good look. But I mean, I think if they'd stayed together, and you know, the other thing is like had town has not gotten hurt, I do wonder if things would have continued to go bad and then you have Edwards like piping up more about his unhappiness with the the Devo trade they had hit kind of like a an extended stride where they were winning games, performing well on both ends of the floor. And then also just like does the Town's injury, and now naz Reid is injured too. But it paved the way for naz Reid breakout. Like he was a monster post All Star break and absolutely he was shooting sixty five plus percent on drives when he went down with his injury and his three started falling. So they're like, hey, we'll just play him and dual big lineups. Two, I'm just curious whether you get that information about him. He's gonna be a fascinating free agent. By the way, I wonder if you'd get that information on him. If Towns doesn't get I'm not calling it a blessing in disguise, It's just it could have changed the trajectory of their could you could tell me, well, if you had talents for the whole year, he's so good, they eventually would have figured it out and been even better. You can also tell me that they might have been a little bit worse for wear two. Yeah, you know you made me think of something that I was really wrong about. Was was Kyle Anderson. I think I wrote Adam is the second best free agency signing behind John Brunton. Did you no again? So I had I quite the opposite of that. I think I wrote something earlier early in the year when Anderson, like the on off stuff was terrible despite him making a bunch of threes, and I just was making the case that you can't really plan with Gobert because your spacing gets even worse. And you like, if you plan with Towns, I guess that's cool, but then you're sacrificing five out when your four can't shoot. I mean, he's just been just so much better than I gave him credit for. And I always, I think we always do this when like spacing is an issue for a front court guy, you can just put the ball in his hands like that's then then who cares? I mean, you still got some workarounds to deal with. But if he can dribble and pass, which Anderson absolutely can, then you kind of just mitigate the damage of oh, you know, teams leave him open. His shot looks esthetically just awful still, but he's been one of the best free agents full stop of signed this past offseason, and I thought he was going to be a problem. So the fact that he was way better than I thought, and I still underestimated the Wolves by eleven wins. It's I think I should just be like barred from trying to guess how Minnesota's going to play based on this going forward? We have other So I have two more double digit misses where I was off by ten wins. So can we get to those because you didn't have double digits on these teams, I'm clear of the double digit categories now. The first team is the Phoenix Suns. I missed by I'm a projected to miss by ten wins on them. I don't know that we need to. I thought fifty two and a half as an over under. I think I was one of the few people who hit the over on them. Did you hit the over on them as well? You had him winning fifty one, So I missed by a little bit. I just I still think they would have hit it if I. Maybe not, but like they were just so much with DeAndre Ayton kind of sucking for a while, the Devin Booker injury, Chris Paul losing his superpowers for a while, and then you trade for Kevin Durant. This is part of this, so and he wasn't playing immediately, and that throws wrenches into the plans. Even Cam Johnson, you had his injury to deal with, get injuries to campaign at one point for a while, there was just a lot of churn going on pre and post Kevin Durant trade to where I think the biggest evidence of why the Suns end up not hitting me over look at what they needed mcal Bridges to do this season on offense at points, and it's great. It paved the way for his growth and he's always shown flashes, but we're talking like they needed him to take on real self creation volume and to test that mid range jumper and put him through the ringer on ball. That was just not something like I foresaw and I definitely didn't say. I thought maybe getting paid would kind of assuage any awkwardness for DeAndre Ayton, and we made the jokes about his number and Monty Williams and whatever at the start of the year. I just thought it would be fine. He is. He's been like for I would say a huge portion of this season he was I don't want to say bad, but a player that just looked like, oh, did this contract just age into a complete financial catastrophe. Yeah, yeah, I think I think as much as anything, so much has changed about this team that it's hard to really get too been out of shape about our preseason evaluations. But I think I probably just overvalued or put too much emphasis on the way last season ended. You know, It's it's like a pretty extreme example of recency bias, just totally. I mean, they were in the finals and they won sixty four games, and then they had a terrible playoff series in a horrible game seven, and I put I think I decided that that last thing mattered more than the first. But then I still just was like, now they're gonna win fifty whatever game. I know how to evaluate this team. I missed on them pretty significantly too, But I don't know, I feel like we can give ourselves a pass on the Suns just because can can I give myself a pass on the Pelicans, who I also missed ken wins And this is oh okay, here's I'm gonna say. No, I can't. And look, we were on this podcast. We declared them. I declared Zion a FMVP candidate. I said the Pelicans were a contender. I looked so smart, and you were there. It took you a while to get there, but you eventually got there. I looked so smart. Then the floor just falls out from beneath them, and I think, and I will certainly do this moving forward. The calculus has to be Zion is going to miss most of the regular season at this point. That just has to be. That is a that has been your reality for his career. And if I thought they were gonna win fifty plus games, like I penciled them in for I clearly thought, oh, Zion's gonna play it at least sixty five or something, And you can't make that assumption. I do think, even independent of him, it's been a little disappointing the three point volume, and when you don't have his rim pressure, that's exacerbated some of these all wing lineups that don't have a ton of creation. Those have been a disappointment. Their defense is perked up lately, but like that was something that was a concern for them for a good chunk of the year. I just mad at myself for going over fifty. Is it like this shouldn't have been a double digit miss in retrospect On my end, that's still their ceiling. But part of reaching that ceiling is seeing that group together and it's it's great. Now it feels like they're finding themselves independent of Zion Williamson. When you're looking at what brand Ingram is doing as a playmaker, that what Trey Murphy has just done basically all year, he's been great. Herb Jones's regression from three. Every time he hits at three, it feels like, I don't know, Haley's comics just passed or something at this point. So there were things that were just like, No, I didn't anticipate going this way. Did I think brand Ingram was gonna miss so much time? But when you know that Zion Williamson is probably going to miss at least forty games, are what are you doing here? You can't pencil this team in for fifty wins like I didn't. I think I had them at was I thought they were gonna win fifty one and finished third in the West. Is that what I had the Matt Yeah, So I missed. I mean it is really simple in hindsight. It's just I think if Zion is healthy, you're probably you are probably closer to their win total than I am because I had him winning forties six, and so I missed by still too many, by the way, I'm tased to missed by five. Yeah, right, I think it's interesting. Like so if and we've just I think I agree with you, we cannot assume this. But if if going let's say, going into next season, and this Pelican team is mostly the same, which it has every chance to be because they just have a lot of guys under contract and Zion's gonna play fifty five games, would you pick them to win fifty games again? Or like so you can't even if you got the guarantee of sixty games, Like what's the number of gotta be? Because because it is it just about him? Or is it it's about hard to gauge the other guys when he's not there, right because he's just so central to everybody being and when you're not gonna have looking at their personnel right now, when you don't have the three point volume functional shooting, if you remove his rim pressure, it just it throws everybody off and now you're always one dependent on brand ingraman season. McAll them who prefer to they're not even putting pressure on the basket most of the time. They prefer to live from the mid range. That complicates everything. You would probably have to tell me that Zion needs to play in sixty plus, so sixty one or more, and that's when I feel comfortable penzeling them in for fifty wins. Again, maybe they may change, like if their center rotation was a little bit different where you weren't. Okay, Yeah, I feel like they've underutilized you want to found on tunas at points this season. But I think it would be easier to establish an identity both independent and with Zion if you had just this rim protecting five that has actual size, so it's not a Larry Nance junior type guy, and preferably they'd be able to shoot threes. But that's you know, that's Miles Turner and then Brook Lopez and nobody else. Basically this maybe maybe Christaps porzingis So yeah, that's just it's gonna take a lot for me to go. We'll have to see how the off season pans out. But they might make me believe again if they get into the play in and just cause a rockets. I just think it's a testament to Zion's impact that there was a time when he was healthy that I mean you remember how good we felt about the supporting cast, about how much depth there was, and like, oh, you would take this young core over almost any other because you know, Murphy and even Dyson Daniels and forget like Ingram and McCollum. But there was just so much. There was so much talent, it seemed like and then it just isn't the same if Zion's not there. So yeah, I think you're right, I think, and I think if you one, you have to assume he's not going to play the majority of the games in a season, and two that when he's not out there, all these other guys are just way worse, because I mean, that's what a testament to him, that he's already in that rare class of guys, that he makes everybody on the floor better. That's just I mean, you said it. He was an MVP candidate before he got hurt. That defines it basically, what was yours? This was a joint miss yeah, joint miss my next worst missus Dallas. I had them winning forty eight and they are on pace, so they currently have and are basically out of They have thirty seven right now, Pacer under forty. It's very which who knows, Like, yeah, whatever it is, it's gonna miss by miss by plenty. I guess I thought that. I mean, this is another team that's changed a lot, But I think I believe that one you just start with Luca, you're gonna win. You can win forty eight games, right if you if you have Luka Donchich two. I must have believed that Spencer Dinwitty would just take on a little more of the offensive load and the Brunson loss wouldn't hurt that much, and Christian would in conjunction with Dinwoody, would get you some offense, so you'd be okay there. And then defensively, I don't remember what I thought. I figured probably I'm not I'm not like I'm projecting them to win the conference or whatever. Forty eight wins. You could be a top five offense and a you know, a number twenty defense and that might do it. Yeah. I don't feel that bad about that one, because really, like it was just it was just wrong about the supporting cast being like able to withstand the Brunson loss, I think as much as anything. And then after the deadline they traded their defense away and who you know, there was no, hope they underachieved. I guess they have underachieved because they might miss the playoffs. But I missed them by eight. You missed them by nine wins, so they were one of my I had a three way tie for my fifth biggest misses at at eight wins a pop uh, Like have they underachieved though? Or was it we overestimated? Like think about the Christian would trade. Low key might have been a disaster now because you gave up a first round pick and that doesn't seem like a dude that you're gonna pay. And we knew that Javal McGee signing was bad, but even you said you removed him from the rotation. I will say, I guess where I missed is I thought they might have been able to keep up the defense a little bit more pre Kyrie Irving trade. And we saw just like the Maxie Cleveland injury. Okay, that was part of it. We should have just we should have just known. Okay, Well, now look at like what you're dealing with on the front line, aside from throwing Finnie Smith, and then look at your guards. You know you're bringing Tim Hardaway Junior back on the rotation. He missed a ton of the previous year and that probably helped their defense. So yeah, I think they have underachieved, but I think there might have been an like a miscalculation on how good they were supposed to be in the first place. Yeah, it's tough, right, because they made the conference finals. And even though I don't think anybody would have said they were the second best team in the West last year. That that's hard to like get out of your mind. That In hindsight too, the McGee signing was so hard to understand at the time that we probably should have just removed any benefit of the doubt from every other decision they were going to make or had made, because that was just so ridic and was promised a starting spot more or less right, and when he lost that, I forget what the word of the report was. Basically he's just collecting checks now because he's pissed off about not getting to start. Yeah, that was tough. I don't know, it's hard to pet against staunch. It's though, you know, at the start of a season now it's like who knows. But so I got another I have a let's see my next worst one, which is and you're kind of right there, but not quite as bad as the Clippers. I'm going to be about eight wins off on that one. Overestimated them by eight wins. I mean, I guess there's not really an excuse for that, because basically Leonard and George played, you know, roughly in tandem, about as much as you we probably should have expected, right, Am I wrong about that? I mean, KAUI certainly played as much as you would have expected. And then George is hurt now and has had a couple others, but I'm pulling up his games played total George. I think part of it was did you expect this type of regression for Marcus Morris? Did you expect both Reggie Jackson to fall off a cliff and then John Walt to not really provide anything? You thought this would be the perfect situation for him. Did you think that Luke Nard wasn't gonna take threes and highvolume until he was traded? You? Just so, there were just a lot of it was it was mostly supporting cast cast stuff. Their rotations felt like they were in constant flux of Norman Powell miss time as well. They also Tyler falling in and out of love with Robert Covington. I think they didn't have any dire issues. It just all colaced together step laddering on top of one another. Yeah, you factored and quiet missed at the beginning of like a huge part of the beginning of the season, and that has to be part of it too. I think all those things they kind of just added up and it took attacks on their season overall. Because what was honestly, what's the biggest disappointment about this roster this exact It's yeah, that offense was so bad for so long, but just like the singular biggest disappointment on this team is probably Marcus Morris, because I don't know what you are expecting from John Wall or even Reggie Jackson to the point where he had Did you say, well, we needed to get rid of those guys to maximize this team. It's probably just oh, the way Marcus Moore has played and then Tyler refusing to not remove him from the rotation for the longest time or play him lest It's weird, right because you would say that, Okay, a team that is going to have Kauai and Paul George kind of just needs caretakers at the point because those guys will have the ball and you don't need someone to initiate the offense or be you know, be a connector or whatever, or at least the bar is pretty low for sort of the supplementary talent in terms of playmaking that you need around those two guys. But then I do think that was the issue because Wall was bad, Jackson was bad, and then after that it's kind of like who you know, Kennard is too hesitant to shoot or was too hesitant to shoot before they traded him, and so then it's kind of like, well, if you are only a lot of times going to have one or the other of Kawai and Pulters. By the way, I think they're something like twenty four and fourteen with like a plus eight, you know, net with those two guys on the floor, So like the absolute core of this team still does work sort of as expected. But yeah, I think it's weird that you would not have you would not have thought that the Clippers needed someone to get the offense going because of the two stars they have, But that really kind of was a lot of it, right, I mean it looking all the way back, it's just if they gotten anything from the point guard spot. That would have been a big difference maker. Maybe not enough to make up for you know, how far off we were, but it would have. It would have been like the fact that Russell Westbrook is still bad, by the way, but everybody's like, you know what, he's kind of helping. That's a problem. That speaks to how bad the point guard spot. The rim pressure has helped. The turnovers are still maddening, but I do think the rim pressure and just kind of putting defense in rotation has helped them a little. Right, But that's what I mean. He does like one thing pretty well and it takes a lot of table and everybody's excited about how much better the point guard play has been. I mean, that's just because from where you're starting, Yeah, I guess a guy that does something is a positive. There was also the element of it wasn't self sabotage, but it took them too long to be like, hey, let's just invest x amount of minutes and usage in terrence. Many that looks like, hey, we don't need to have this charade of trying to find an actual point guard. This is my final miss, and I think it's the last biggest miss of this entire exercise I had. I was off by eight wins projected wins on the Toronto Raptors, and you were up by sevens. We were closed. But this was basically we looked at every team we missed on by eight winsor or more throughout this process. With the exception of teams that ended up exceeding our expectations, we went a little out deeper. There they are as we record this. They have an above average offense and defense for the year, and they are tenth in net rating. There are some bigger games that could absolutely skew that, but it feels like they should be way worse than tenth in net rating because I was convinced they were going to be like the team that fucked up the East this year. Pascal Siakam, for the most part, was as advertised. He'll be in the All NBA discussion. Scotty Barnes has been better, but there was a drop off or at least just sort of Yeah, there was like a functional shock to him for half the season. Fred van Fleet not really you know, his shooting waning until basically through the trade deadline. He's needed Yaka Purdle to open up their defense suffered without Peardle. Their offense, well, I say without Peurdle, but without a player like Peardle. And then who's also someone who Hey actually set screens and rolls to the basket, which is not an element they had precious a chewas regression. Who was you want to talk about? Missus Grant? He was my most improved player pick. I don't know if totally justifiable breakout pick. So they miss on him. The bench a problem again, and the defense, yes, they're still super aggressive. Number one in FOURCED turnover rate. That seems so hard to sustain on a game to game basis when you're playing your top guys as many minutes as you were for most of this season. Gary Trent Junior was ran hot and cold this year. Chris Bouche, whom I love, I've been basically indifferent too. This year. You got to a point where you felt the need like, oh, I didn't realize that he is young, wasn't gonna play any real type of positive role for this team. And now you're a you're in a position where you thought you need to sign Will Barton and that has not has not turned out too well. I missed on so many aspects of this team, and yet they still feel dangerous. They just still fit. Does that make any sense? No, Yeah, they're a hard team to quit. I think I think that's been a problem for both of us for a long time. I think I agree with you know, the player by player analysis and sort of what's gone right and wrong, I think for me, and this has kind of been every time I start to discuss or write about the Raptors this year, at least before the Peartle trade, because I feel like the Peartle trade in conjunction with Van Fleet has kind of given them sort of like not a not a hub, but just like, okay, we can run a pick, a big small pick and roll like sort of conventionally, we don't have to do this weird stuff where someone that's six ten is handling the ball and trying to make a play and like just you know, Siakam and Scotty Barnes is just like that's just not that's just not what you need as the like sort of foundation of your offense. And so the Van Fleet Peurtle stuff makes sense. Obviously they were not together all year because Petle was on the Spurs until the trade deadline. I think The frustrating thing for me is they're kind of good and bad in the same ways as last year, more or less, you know what I mean. Like they so they forced a bazillion turnovers. They never turn it over because they just have their wings take bad shots generally. That's like what that's how their offense works. They have similar effective fieldbal percentage overall their bottom four just like last year. They fall too much, just like last year. They're not great on the defensive boards, just like last year, and their strengths are kind of the same transition offense. Their weakness is a half court. It's just like they sort of ran it back and I think we all thought that there'd be some organic growth and the positionless stuff wouldn't hamstring them in certain ways, and they just kind of did the same stuff. So that's annoying. That's frustrating because I just thought there would be more more of a change, which in hindsight, like I mean, what do they do in the off season? They got auto porter, Like there wasn't there who didn't play, and if we expected him to play, I mean, there's your seven wins right there. Baby. I mean no, I think I think in hindsight, expecting different results from roughly the same personnel was potentially a mistake, although to your point, they based on their point differential, they should have forty one wins right now instead of thirty eight and so and would be on pace for like forty five ish at forty four, which would be they would not be one of our big misses if they actually just had a record in line with their differential. So the takeaways were actually smart. Well, speaking of I want to give us a shout out on the teams that we came within two victories of predicting plus or minus two victories. So for yours Cleveland, Milwaukee, Denver, Philly, Chicago, Brooklyn, and the Lakers. So you had Wow, you had a bunch of teams. You had five, you had seven where you were came within two victories of predicting their actual record. I am willing to bet that I had far fewer than that. Let me sort this here very quickly. This is this is a great podcast. I'm sure we'll go back. I had the Cavaliers, the Sixers, the Wizards, I know my Wizards, the Spurs, the Nuggets, the Nets, and the Bulls. I was within two victories, of which actually is that seven as well? Yeah? Yeah, so we were each within and a lot of them were the same teams. We were within two victories on seven teams each. That's not bad, and a stellar winning record on the over unders. This was a fun exercise though that you want to take us out of here. Yeah, thanks everybody for listening. I hope, I hope next year you'll just remember listen to the addition of this podcast where we guess over unders and just bet everything, because clearly this is a winning formula except for how much if you put a thousand dollars on every single bet that we made, think about how much money you would have made as a singular bet. You'd have to bet them all though, because if you listen to me about the thunder, for example, you would have been your Your season would have been over at January. Uh yeah. Anyway, thanks everybody for listening. Please remember, if you have not done so already, to rate, review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts, follow us on all our socials at Hardwood Knocks, at Damp Valley, at Jeeves, Underscore Hues, and uh yeah, tell a friend if they'd like to make money. Or potentially lose a whole lot depending on depending on which part of the podcast listen to. And as always, we pulled the shout out from Frank Lakina and apologies. 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