Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency
news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in.
Please hit that subscribe button as well as a thumbs up button and leave
a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or
Apple, please leave a five star rating and review. Folks. Of course,
we have to talk about the price of bitcoin. That's what everyone's talking
about. There's a lot of fear in the market right now. People are
asking is the crypto bullmarket over? Is this it for the twenty twenty three
twenty twenty four bull market? And I'm going to share some facts in some
metrics to help form a thesis here. I personally believe that the higher probability
leans towards the bullmarket, that we are still in the bullmarket and we will
see a continuation. Now that's not to say we can completely ignore the bear
scenario. We'll talk a bit about that as well. We want to make
sure we're balanced, we want to make sure we don't have buloe onto each
possible scenario. And let's start by looking at the price right now Bitcoin at
fifty six four hundred and twenty seven dollars huge red candles on the daily chart,
and the RSI, which we saw had a massive bounce the other day,
is headed back downwards. But with all things considered, when you zoom
out, when in doubt, zoom out, you see there's nothing unusual here
as far as a pullback and a bull market looking at both the RSI and
the price. However, I do want to say that if Bitcoin is to
collapse below let's say forty eight forty six K in that range, I will
then have to readjust my strategy and say, yeah, something is really different
here. Maybe we're running like the twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen cycle where there
was a big pump and then a huge correction and a long consolidation into the
next parabolic move. That's possible, right. We can't rule out any type
of scenario here because no one has a crystal. We can just form our
thesis based on probabilities. And I know that's something that many people don't want
to hear, but that's investing. If you want some level of certainty,
then go play the lottery, right, get your lottery numbers and then wait
for the drawing. But we know the odds of that. Versus holding an
asset in a currency debasement cycle and global liquidity on the rise, you have
a better chance of making an incredible return. But you have to exercise patients,
and you have to go through these rollercoaster rides and market volatility and experience
is a great teacher. I've been here since twenty sixteen, so this doesn't
phaze me. Don't get me wrong. The first go around, when I
saw the parabolic run up in twenty seventeen, there was huge corrections, guys,
and an example, Adam Back highlighted the major corrections we saw in the
twenty seventeen parabolic run up, which included thirty eight percent drops, thirty six
percent drops, thirty three Right now, we haven't even hit anything close to
that. Here. Wrecked Capital highlighted the percentages of the drop since February twenty
twenty three in this run up, and they're The highest was twenty three point
six percent. So these are rookie numbers compared to previous cycles. So this
is why I'm personally not phased. I know some of you getting into the
marketer who just got in this is like, WHOA what is happening? Is
it over. It's just the end of bitcoin. But this is normal,
guys. This is the volatility we have to deal with. And I often
like to remind people it's the pendulum that swings both ways. This market moves
like nothing we've ever seen. The prices can skyrocket like that, but also
the pendulum swings the other way where they can drop significantly. So it comes
with a territory. But this type of volatility allows you to make significant returns.
That's why bitcoin is the best performing acid over the past ten to eleven
years. Now a factor as to why I'm still bullish and why I believe
we're still in a bull market. The dxy is collapsing, guys, the
price as well as the RSIs. You can see here. We've been watching
this over the past couple months and so forth, you know, waiting for
it to top out. It seems like it is. But some of you
may ask the question, Tony, I thought you said these things were inversely
correlated. When the dxys crash and risk assets are supposed to pump, yes,
but that's usually about ninety percent of the time, it's not one hundred
percent of the time. So I think there's a bit of a lagging effect
here. I think Bitcoin is close to its bottom and I think it will
catch the momentum off of the DXY crashing. Plus, we have to keep
in mind that there's a lot of urging of liquidity that's taking place. For
example, yesterday, within sixty minutes, one hundred and ten million dollars was
liquidated from the cryptocurrency market. The amount of liquidations we saw was the biggest
since the FTX collapse in December twenty twenty two, So this was significant.
When you have these type of events, usually you're near the bottom. It's
a reset and it positions bitcoin and other crypto. He said, Then move
in the opposite direction because they're hitting this the super oversoul zone and there's no
more sellers. It just is only a reversal that has to happen. And
this is true not only for crypto but other assets if you study the RSI
and how these things move. So that's why I believe we are still in
a bullmarket. The other factor is the fear index. Remember I've been tweeting
about this, talking about this that the plebeians. I've been making the joke
that the plebs need to feel fear before bitcoin bounces. So the Bitcoin Fear
and Greed Index now a twenty six. That's very bullish in a bull market,
Guys, in a bear market obviously not bolished, right, but we're
in a bull market. We're far from the bottom. Like I always say
when in doub zoom out you look at this chart. This does not look
like the end of the bull market cycle. Now, with that said,
I am not a perma bowl where I completely ignored the bears and the bitcoin
is to break like forty eight forty six K, then you've got to sound
the panic alarm. It's right now, it's still holding up some key support
levels. Another factor is the Piece cycle top indicator, which I've been sharing
with you guys recently. This is on look into bitcoin dot com. There's
some great charting and metrics here, and that hasn't crossed now. It has
been very accurate in the past three bull market cycles, talking about twenty twenty,
twenty twenty one, twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen, go back to twenty
thirteen and twenty fourteen. So it's headed in the direction and fairly close to
crossing, but it has not crossed yet. So once again, these different
factors are telling us party is not over yet. Now, like I said,
that could be invalidated if something happens and drives Bitcoin further down and changes
things. Right, Look, things can remain the same until they change.
That's just how it is. But like I said earlier, we could see
something like twenty thirteen into twenty fourteen where people thought the first run up in
twenty thirteen it was done because there was a massive correction and almost looked like
we were headed into a bear market. But it's consolidated. It found its
bottom slowly and steadily grinded and then ran up to another parabolic high. So
we'll have to wait and see, guys. Once again, no one has
a crystal ball, but we can at least form a thesis, make educated
guests versus using our emotions and just saying it's over. Bullmarket's over, the
price is down. Okay, Well what are you basing that on? You
know? Is it the sun is out today in the sun or it's a
cloudy day, or are you basing it on facts? So we'll have to
wait and see. Another great chart I want to share with you guys is
from tech dev who's a great end analyst. He took the bitcoin price and
aligned it to the Wall Street Psychology cheat sheet, which shows the emotions,
the emotional milestones in a bull market. And right now he shows that we
are headed to a bit trap scenario because we hit the first sentiment extreme,
which was bitcoin hitting seventy four k before the having which it never did in
its history, and then we needed that massive cool down after that bear trap.
And because the reason why is a bear trap. Right now, it's
a big correction and a lot of bears are going to say, oh yeah,
it's over. We're going to open shorts, and you guys know what's
going to happen, massive liquidations when bitcoin reverses, right, and then it
goes to renewed optimism, then to fomo, then to euphoria. You want
to be selling at that fomo to euphoria zone, guys, to take your
profits because that's when the Grandma's uber drivers and everybody's coming in. We're nowhere
close to that. We didn't see any type of massive retail sentiment and so
forth. So these are different factors I'm looking at to say the bull market
is not over right, folks. Quick word from our sponsor, and that
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com. Link will be in a description. Now, we got news here
that Grayscale Ethereum trusts discount to nav quietly switches to premium ahead of anticipated spot
ETF launch. So many reports are coming out, especially from the Bloomberg analysts,
that the spot ets will be approved this month. Maybe that's the catalyst
that helps the market to do. It's a reversal. I'm not talking about
pumping to new all time highs. I think that's coming probably we're months away
from that. But to do a reversal, to find out bottom and balance,
that's what we want to see. So Grayscale is prepping here. So
having previously traded at a discount for the last three years, Ethe reached a
premium to NAV of zero point one to three percent on July third, ahead
of Independence Day. According to why Charge Data, premium or discount to NAV
indicates how much above or below the market price of each share is compared to
the value of ether it represents. The Ethe discount had been narrowing since the
crypto bear market bottom of December twenty twenty two, as speculation grew surrounding the
US SEC approval of spot etherem ets following the launch of Dear Bitcoin counterparts in
January. So, guys, once again, this could be the catalyst,
and it looks like these big players are preparing for this ETF launch this month,
So maybe comes in the middle of July July fifteenth, around that that
week. We'll have to wait and see. Now, guys, the crypto
industry continues to fight back against the government overreach. We've often talked a lot
about the SEC, but also the FED, which I believe a lot of
cronies who work with Elizabeth Warren are positioned in the FED. They of course
blocked Kaitlyn Long's Custodia Bank, but the industry is submitting amikas briefs. Caitlin
Long and Custodia Bank have filed an appeal in the case. So Kaitlyn tweeted
out torrential thanks to the seven who filed amikas briefs in Custodia Banks case versus
the Fed. I am deeply grateful. Three x US solicitors general to Obama,
one Bush, and plus ex Solicitor General of VA are now involved in
our case. Wow, some big names. Eleanor Tarrata Fox Business gave some
details on that. She says. Former Solicitor General under Obama, Donald Vilrelli
says regulators are deliberately debanking crypto. Despite the digital asset industries pressing need for
banking services, federal regulators have waged a concerted, coordinated campaign to debank the
industry. We know this started with Elizabeth Warren and her cronies like SHIROD.
Brown and so forth. This is why we get to keep fighting. It's
not Biden. Look, Biden, we know it should be somewhere enjoying retirement.
Right. He hasn't said anything about crypto. This is all Elizabeth Warren
and her cronies. Obviously, she's got Genster working with her. And when
I was in d C for the DC Blockchain Summit, and I think it
was in May, I spoke to various people and they're like, yeah,
Elizabeth Warren's staffers. They get moved around and they go to different places and
they do her bidding. So it's her cronies who's doing all these things.
Guys, it's not Biden and so forth. I know it's often highlighted as
the Biden administration, but it's not Biden himself, you know, as opposed
to let's say Trump, who is pro crypto and you know, has spoken
about it very openly. It is pretty much Elizabeth Warren behind the scenes.
Eleanor also provided some additional details, saying Barelli, Obama's solicitor general, who
was in office during the original Option choke point, and Clement Bush's solicitor General
have clashed over a number of Supreme Court cases over the years, but the
pair have come together to support Custodia Bank and the crypto industry by extension in
it's a case against the Federal Reserve. Wow, you know, a couple
of enemies here coming together. Eleanor says, this is yet another indication of
the changing political landscape around crypto. It's gaining more bipartisan support heading into the
November election, So big things are happening, guys. I am so bullish.
The price is down. I know sometimes it's hard to be bullish when
the price is down. But zoom out, look at the macro, look
at where we came from. And I can say that with conviction because I
was here in twenty sixteen. I was here when there was no news like
this. There was a lot of fun coming from Jamie Diamond and many folks
now we're used to that fud. You know, Jamie's saying the same old
talking points. But when it was the first time he came out in twenty
seventeen, it was scary because you had the CEO of the world's largest bank
saying these things, and you know, people were still skeptics. So even
Donald Trump when he was in office, right, a lot of people have
changed their opinions about crypto. So we're moving in the right direction and all
these things are going to lead to mass adoption. Now we got news that
Rocana is Crypto Roundtable, which we've been talking about, guys, which will
include Mark Cuban and the Biden administration. Apparently it's next week, so we'll
see if we get anything out of this. And Eleanor said it's being described
to me as the worst kept secret in crypto, so they haven't been very
open about this, but you know, maybe they're trying to downplay it as
much as possible. And Democrats of Rocana is in one of the top of
Democrats is trying to get this through. I'm trying to get Mark Cuban on
the podcast to talk about this, So if you guys, tweet at him
or email him and tell them to come on the podcast. But guys,
all signs of crypto getting embraced and moving in the right direction. This is
very bullish. Now there's a big hearing around crypto coming up on Wednesday,
July tenth. It includes the Senate Agriculture Democrats and the Senate Agriculture GOP.
They have posted a hearing for next Wednesday on oversight of digital Commodities, with
CFTC Chairman Roston Benham as the only witness. Taylor Barr of the Digital Chambers
says this will probably be a general crypto hearing as opposed to being specifically about
Senator stab Now's legislation. So all of this is bullish. Guys, they're
meeting and talking about crypto to having dialogue and obviously the fifth to twenty one
bill Midia out of the House. We need to get it through the Senate,
and then it needs to be signed by President. I say a president
because we don't know what's going to happen this coming November and the election cycles
upon it, so I don't know if anything's going to make it through right
now, but I think twenty twenty five will be the year. And guys,
I'm bullish. I am bullish. I don't care what the hell is
happening with the price right now. There are too many different facts that are
pointing us in the direction of the bull market. So let me know what
you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below, hit the thumbs up button,
and guys, don't forget to grab a copy of my book, Rethinking
Crypto. I mentioned Operation Choke point two point zero earlier. It's covered in
the book. Custodia Bank and Kaitlin Long's battle against the feed is covered in
the book as well. It covers the SEC and much more. It covers
Crypto's past president future. Grab a copy to support the podcast. Grab a
couple of copies for your friends and family who want to learn about Crypto.
And for those of you who have bought a copy already, please please please
leave a rating and review on Amazon. It will really help in my rankings
there. I appreciate you all, Thank you so much, and I'll talk
to you all later. Post eight pok eight t