WEBVTT

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Hey, everybody, Welcome into the
Thinking Crypto podcast. You're home for cryptocurrency

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news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in.

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Please hit that subscribe button as well
as a thumbs up button and leave

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a comment below. If you're listening
on a podcast platform such as Spotify or

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Apple, please leave a five star
rating and review. Folks. Of course,

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we have to talk about the price
of bitcoin. That's what everyone's talking

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about. There's a lot of fear
in the market right now. People are

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asking is the crypto bullmarket over?
Is this it for the twenty twenty three

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twenty twenty four bull market? And
I'm going to share some facts in some

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metrics to help form a thesis here. I personally believe that the higher probability

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leans towards the bullmarket, that we
are still in the bullmarket and we will

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see a continuation. Now that's not
to say we can completely ignore the bear

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scenario. We'll talk a bit about
that as well. We want to make

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sure we're balanced, we want to
make sure we don't have buloe onto each

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possible scenario. And let's start by
looking at the price right now Bitcoin at

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fifty six four hundred and twenty seven
dollars huge red candles on the daily chart,

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and the RSI, which we saw
had a massive bounce the other day,

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is headed back downwards. But with
all things considered, when you zoom

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out, when in doubt, zoom
out, you see there's nothing unusual here

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as far as a pullback and a
bull market looking at both the RSI and

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the price. However, I do
want to say that if Bitcoin is to

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collapse below let's say forty eight forty
six K in that range, I will

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then have to readjust my strategy and
say, yeah, something is really different

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here. Maybe we're running like the
twenty thirteen to twenty fourteen cycle where there

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was a big pump and then a
huge correction and a long consolidation into the

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next parabolic move. That's possible,
right. We can't rule out any type

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of scenario here because no one has
a crystal. We can just form our

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thesis based on probabilities. And I
know that's something that many people don't want

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to hear, but that's investing.
If you want some level of certainty,

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then go play the lottery, right, get your lottery numbers and then wait

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for the drawing. But we know
the odds of that. Versus holding an

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asset in a currency debasement cycle and
global liquidity on the rise, you have

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a better chance of making an incredible
return. But you have to exercise patients,

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and you have to go through these
rollercoaster rides and market volatility and experience

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is a great teacher. I've been
here since twenty sixteen, so this doesn't

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phaze me. Don't get me wrong. The first go around, when I

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saw the parabolic run up in twenty
seventeen, there was huge corrections, guys,

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and an example, Adam Back highlighted
the major corrections we saw in the

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twenty seventeen parabolic run up, which
included thirty eight percent drops, thirty six

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percent drops, thirty three Right now, we haven't even hit anything close to

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that. Here. Wrecked Capital highlighted
the percentages of the drop since February twenty

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twenty three in this run up,
and they're The highest was twenty three point

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six percent. So these are rookie
numbers compared to previous cycles. So this

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is why I'm personally not phased.
I know some of you getting into the

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marketer who just got in this is
like, WHOA what is happening? Is

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it over. It's just the end
of bitcoin. But this is normal,

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guys. This is the volatility we
have to deal with. And I often

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like to remind people it's the pendulum
that swings both ways. This market moves

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like nothing we've ever seen. The
prices can skyrocket like that, but also

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the pendulum swings the other way where
they can drop significantly. So it comes

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with a territory. But this type
of volatility allows you to make significant returns.

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That's why bitcoin is the best performing
acid over the past ten to eleven

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years. Now a factor as to
why I'm still bullish and why I believe

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we're still in a bull market.
The dxy is collapsing, guys, the

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price as well as the RSIs.
You can see here. We've been watching

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this over the past couple months and
so forth, you know, waiting for

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it to top out. It seems
like it is. But some of you

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may ask the question, Tony,
I thought you said these things were inversely

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correlated. When the dxys crash and
risk assets are supposed to pump, yes,

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but that's usually about ninety percent of
the time, it's not one hundred

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percent of the time. So I
think there's a bit of a lagging effect

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here. I think Bitcoin is close
to its bottom and I think it will

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catch the momentum off of the DXY
crashing. Plus, we have to keep

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in mind that there's a lot of
urging of liquidity that's taking place. For

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example, yesterday, within sixty minutes, one hundred and ten million dollars was

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liquidated from the cryptocurrency market. The
amount of liquidations we saw was the biggest

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since the FTX collapse in December twenty
twenty two, So this was significant.

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When you have these type of events, usually you're near the bottom. It's

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a reset and it positions bitcoin and
other crypto. He said, Then move

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in the opposite direction because they're hitting
this the super oversoul zone and there's no

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more sellers. It just is only
a reversal that has to happen. And

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this is true not only for crypto
but other assets if you study the RSI

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and how these things move. So
that's why I believe we are still in

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a bullmarket. The other factor is
the fear index. Remember I've been tweeting

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about this, talking about this that
the plebeians. I've been making the joke

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that the plebs need to feel fear
before bitcoin bounces. So the Bitcoin Fear

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and Greed Index now a twenty six. That's very bullish in a bull market,

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Guys, in a bear market obviously
not bolished, right, but we're

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in a bull market. We're far
from the bottom. Like I always say

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when in doub zoom out you look
at this chart. This does not look

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like the end of the bull market
cycle. Now, with that said,

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I am not a perma bowl where
I completely ignored the bears and the bitcoin

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is to break like forty eight forty
six K, then you've got to sound

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the panic alarm. It's right now, it's still holding up some key support

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levels. Another factor is the Piece
cycle top indicator, which I've been sharing

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with you guys recently. This is
on look into bitcoin dot com. There's

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some great charting and metrics here,
and that hasn't crossed now. It has

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been very accurate in the past three
bull market cycles, talking about twenty twenty,

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twenty twenty one, twenty sixteen,
twenty seventeen, go back to twenty

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thirteen and twenty fourteen. So it's
headed in the direction and fairly close to

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crossing, but it has not crossed
yet. So once again, these different

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factors are telling us party is not
over yet. Now, like I said,

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that could be invalidated if something happens
and drives Bitcoin further down and changes

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things. Right, Look, things
can remain the same until they change.

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That's just how it is. But
like I said earlier, we could see

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something like twenty thirteen into twenty fourteen
where people thought the first run up in

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twenty thirteen it was done because there
was a massive correction and almost looked like

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we were headed into a bear market. But it's consolidated. It found its

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bottom slowly and steadily grinded and then
ran up to another parabolic high. So

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we'll have to wait and see,
guys. Once again, no one has

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a crystal ball, but we can
at least form a thesis, make educated

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guests versus using our emotions and just
saying it's over. Bullmarket's over, the

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price is down. Okay, Well
what are you basing that on? You

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know? Is it the sun is
out today in the sun or it's a

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cloudy day, or are you basing
it on facts? So we'll have to

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wait and see. Another great chart
I want to share with you guys is

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from tech dev who's a great end
analyst. He took the bitcoin price and

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aligned it to the Wall Street Psychology
cheat sheet, which shows the emotions,

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the emotional milestones in a bull market. And right now he shows that we

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are headed to a bit trap scenario
because we hit the first sentiment extreme,

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which was bitcoin hitting seventy four k
before the having which it never did in

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its history, and then we needed
that massive cool down after that bear trap.

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And because the reason why is a
bear trap. Right now, it's

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a big correction and a lot of
bears are going to say, oh yeah,

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it's over. We're going to open
shorts, and you guys know what's

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going to happen, massive liquidations when
bitcoin reverses, right, and then it

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goes to renewed optimism, then to
fomo, then to euphoria. You want

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to be selling at that fomo to
euphoria zone, guys, to take your

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profits because that's when the Grandma's uber
drivers and everybody's coming in. We're nowhere

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close to that. We didn't see
any type of massive retail sentiment and so

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forth. So these are different factors
I'm looking at to say the bull market

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is not over right, folks.
Quick word from our sponsor, and that

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com. Link will be in a
description. Now, we got news here

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that Grayscale Ethereum trusts discount to nav
quietly switches to premium ahead of anticipated spot

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ETF launch. So many reports are
coming out, especially from the Bloomberg analysts,

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that the spot ets will be approved
this month. Maybe that's the catalyst

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that helps the market to do.
It's a reversal. I'm not talking about

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pumping to new all time highs.
I think that's coming probably we're months away

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from that. But to do a
reversal, to find out bottom and balance,

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that's what we want to see.
So Grayscale is prepping here. So

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having previously traded at a discount for
the last three years, Ethe reached a

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premium to NAV of zero point one
to three percent on July third, ahead

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of Independence Day. According to why
Charge Data, premium or discount to NAV

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indicates how much above or below the
market price of each share is compared to

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the value of ether it represents.
The Ethe discount had been narrowing since the

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crypto bear market bottom of December twenty
twenty two, as speculation grew surrounding the

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US SEC approval of spot etherem ets
following the launch of Dear Bitcoin counterparts in

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January. So, guys, once
again, this could be the catalyst,

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and it looks like these big players
are preparing for this ETF launch this month,

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So maybe comes in the middle of
July July fifteenth, around that that

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week. We'll have to wait and
see. Now, guys, the crypto

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industry continues to fight back against the
government overreach. We've often talked a lot

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about the SEC, but also the
FED, which I believe a lot of

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cronies who work with Elizabeth Warren are
positioned in the FED. They of course

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blocked Kaitlyn Long's Custodia Bank, but
the industry is submitting amikas briefs. Caitlin

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Long and Custodia Bank have filed an
appeal in the case. So Kaitlyn tweeted

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out torrential thanks to the seven who
filed amikas briefs in Custodia Banks case versus

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the Fed. I am deeply grateful. Three x US solicitors general to Obama,

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one Bush, and plus ex Solicitor
General of VA are now involved in

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our case. Wow, some big
names. Eleanor Tarrata Fox Business gave some

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details on that. She says.
Former Solicitor General under Obama, Donald Vilrelli

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says regulators are deliberately debanking crypto.
Despite the digital asset industries pressing need for

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banking services, federal regulators have waged
a concerted, coordinated campaign to debank the

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industry. We know this started with
Elizabeth Warren and her cronies like SHIROD.

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Brown and so forth. This is
why we get to keep fighting. It's

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not Biden. Look, Biden,
we know it should be somewhere enjoying retirement.

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Right. He hasn't said anything about
crypto. This is all Elizabeth Warren

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and her cronies. Obviously, she's
got Genster working with her. And when

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I was in d C for the
DC Blockchain Summit, and I think it

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was in May, I spoke to
various people and they're like, yeah,

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Elizabeth Warren's staffers. They get moved
around and they go to different places and

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they do her bidding. So it's
her cronies who's doing all these things.

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Guys, it's not Biden and so
forth. I know it's often highlighted as

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the Biden administration, but it's not
Biden himself, you know, as opposed

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to let's say Trump, who is
pro crypto and you know, has spoken

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about it very openly. It is
pretty much Elizabeth Warren behind the scenes.

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Eleanor also provided some additional details,
saying Barelli, Obama's solicitor general, who

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was in office during the original Option
choke point, and Clement Bush's solicitor General

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have clashed over a number of Supreme
Court cases over the years, but the

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pair have come together to support Custodia
Bank and the crypto industry by extension in

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it's a case against the Federal Reserve. Wow, you know, a couple

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of enemies here coming together. Eleanor
says, this is yet another indication of

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the changing political landscape around crypto.
It's gaining more bipartisan support heading into the

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November election, So big things are
happening, guys. I am so bullish.

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The price is down. I know
sometimes it's hard to be bullish when

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the price is down. But zoom
out, look at the macro, look

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at where we came from. And
I can say that with conviction because I

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was here in twenty sixteen. I
was here when there was no news like

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this. There was a lot of
fun coming from Jamie Diamond and many folks

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now we're used to that fud.
You know, Jamie's saying the same old

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talking points. But when it was
the first time he came out in twenty

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seventeen, it was scary because you
had the CEO of the world's largest bank

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saying these things, and you know, people were still skeptics. So even

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Donald Trump when he was in office, right, a lot of people have

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changed their opinions about crypto. So
we're moving in the right direction and all

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these things are going to lead to
mass adoption. Now we got news that

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Rocana is Crypto Roundtable, which we've
been talking about, guys, which will

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include Mark Cuban and the Biden administration. Apparently it's next week, so we'll

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see if we get anything out of
this. And Eleanor said it's being described

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to me as the worst kept secret
in crypto, so they haven't been very

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open about this, but you know, maybe they're trying to downplay it as

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much as possible. And Democrats of
Rocana is in one of the top of

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Democrats is trying to get this through. I'm trying to get Mark Cuban on

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the podcast to talk about this,
So if you guys, tweet at him

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00:14:54.559 --> 00:14:58.519
or email him and tell them to
come on the podcast. But guys,

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all signs of crypto getting embraced and
moving in the right direction. This is

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very bullish. Now there's a big
hearing around crypto coming up on Wednesday,

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July tenth. It includes the Senate
Agriculture Democrats and the Senate Agriculture GOP.

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They have posted a hearing for next
Wednesday on oversight of digital Commodities, with

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CFTC Chairman Roston Benham as the only
witness. Taylor Barr of the Digital Chambers

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says this will probably be a general
crypto hearing as opposed to being specifically about

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00:15:33.720 --> 00:15:37.919
Senator stab Now's legislation. So all
of this is bullish. Guys, they're

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00:15:39.000 --> 00:15:43.519
meeting and talking about crypto to having
dialogue and obviously the fifth to twenty one

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00:15:43.519 --> 00:15:45.720
bill Midia out of the House.
We need to get it through the Senate,

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00:15:45.799 --> 00:15:48.879
and then it needs to be signed
by President. I say a president

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00:15:48.960 --> 00:15:54.039
because we don't know what's going to
happen this coming November and the election cycles

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upon it, so I don't know
if anything's going to make it through right

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00:15:56.799 --> 00:16:00.320
now, but I think twenty twenty
five will be the year. And guys,

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00:16:00.360 --> 00:16:03.440
I'm bullish. I am bullish.
I don't care what the hell is

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00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:07.639
happening with the price right now.
There are too many different facts that are

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00:16:07.679 --> 00:16:11.399
pointing us in the direction of the
bull market. So let me know what

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00:16:11.440 --> 00:16:15.200
you think. Leave your thoughts and
comments below, hit the thumbs up button,

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00:16:15.440 --> 00:16:17.919
and guys, don't forget to grab
a copy of my book, Rethinking

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00:16:17.960 --> 00:16:22.279
Crypto. I mentioned Operation Choke point
two point zero earlier. It's covered in

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00:16:22.320 --> 00:16:26.720
the book. Custodia Bank and Kaitlin
Long's battle against the feed is covered in

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00:16:26.759 --> 00:16:30.320
the book as well. It covers
the SEC and much more. It covers

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00:16:30.360 --> 00:16:33.159
Crypto's past president future. Grab a
copy to support the podcast. Grab a

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00:16:33.200 --> 00:16:36.840
couple of copies for your friends and
family who want to learn about Crypto.

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00:16:37.200 --> 00:16:40.320
And for those of you who have
bought a copy already, please please please

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00:16:40.399 --> 00:16:44.320
leave a rating and review on Amazon. It will really help in my rankings

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00:16:44.320 --> 00:16:47.480
there. I appreciate you all,
Thank you so much, and I'll talk

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00:16:47.519 --> 00:17:03.440
to you all later. Post eight
pok eight t