That is probably one of the unnerving things, you know, when you actually
going back to we were talking about, you know, a couple months ago,
fundamentally the numbers still aren't working, you know. I mean, we're
starting to see the expansion of the economy, the market lens that, but
you know, you've got all this debt, you know, and yes,
the national debt we're approaching thirty three trillion, but the consumer debt, the
corporate debt, and these loans that are coming due. You know, I
think the banks cannot absorb those assets and write it off. It's it's just
it's too expansive. You're listening to Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where you
get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times.
You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial
Survival and Network dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
Network now more than ever, And welcome you are listening to watching the Financial
Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry Lutz. Well, imagine if they
threw a recession and nobody came or have you heard that the economists are so
good they have called five out of the last three recessions. They're always calling
for recessions. Are they right? Are they wrong? Let's talk with our
good friend ed sidell and get the lowdown. So recession or no. You
know what, I think most of us assumed that the economy was not as
strong as as it is, myself included, right, And you know I've
been saying for since we were talking last year, right, that we've kind
of been in a rolling recession. And we had the two negative quarters of
GDP last year. So I think we actually had a recession last year,
but I really felt I thought the end of this year, going into twenty
twenty four, we were definitely going to have one. But I think the
economy stronger than and a little bit more resilient than what we anticipated. And
and you can see it in the markets, right, I mean, investors
are less fearful. If you look at the futures market, you know,
the dollar being weaker, which is a double edged sword, but that's kind
of helping, you know, the lifeblood of America, which are small businesses
because the exchange rate is is lower, so a less competition, and uh,
you know we're seeing it in small cap stocks so yeah, I think
we're going to continue to expand, and the GDP numbers are are showing that,
So yeah, I I we have it's going to be very very mild
at best. What about the commercial real estate apocalypse? What about hiking crisis
which is ongoing. They just took over pack West, they actually handled that
bank seizure the way they should have handled SVB. We wouldn't maybe have as
bad a banking disaster as we have now. Uh, you know they you
know Janet yellah, no, no, there will not be a bell out.
There will not be a bank baillout. And then I guess she got
the call from OWL and said, well, if there's no bank bailout,
there's no economy because it will result in a global collapse and bank runs and
every bank in every country on the planet. So but we still have those
two major things coming up. I don't know if the full huge extent of
the commercial meltdown, commercial real estate meltdown has been appreciated or understood by the
markets and its potential effect adverse effect on the banking sector. You know,
I think in my opinion that the markets and retail investors and and that's why
the growth in the market was so narrow, right, it's starting to broaden
out a little bit, but it's still very narrow. When you're when you're
thinking of, you know, a bull market and the economy expanding, they're
just ignoring it. So short term, um, you know, the market
is on an uptick and it is going to finish the year strong. The
caveat is debt UM and it's huge. You know, you've got the personal
debt credit cards. We talk about this all the time, all time high
people are living, offer credit cards to be able to make ends meet,
and then you've got the commercial loan. If the economy continues to be strong
and continues to expand, you know, I think the market has already priced
in one more raise UM. But if if it continues to grow and Pal
holds true to what he says and continues to raise rates, we're going to
see UM financial failure like we haven't seen before. It's it's it's going to
be huge because we're looking at over three trillion dollars coming new in the next
couple of years. UM. So I was talking to an executive of of
a large regional bank UM and they were telling me that they're not even writing
loans right now, UM and they're very strong I rated UM. But the
when these loans come due, the problem is is that the UM the they're
not going to be able to qualify with the new collateral requirements UM and and
have the money down to to go forward. So I think that is going
to be the that's an outlier, uh or that's a that's an issue,
that's that's on the outskirts right now that could hit home. UM. But
you know again, you know retail investors UM and the markets they're they're just
they're ignoring it, they're not seeing it. And you know it comes down
to you know what from investing, you know, you got to hit your
bets, make a little bit of hey while the sun shines, but you
can't get too greedy. Well, hey, you look at what's doing with
these office buildings. People are you know, come back somewhat but half of
them and hat is empty. And all these high rents that you've seen in
these major areas all predicated upon major occupancy rates high nineties plus and escalating rents
going up five to ten percent a year into the future. So now that
all those assumptions have been destroyed, we're left to pick up the pieces.
And you know, I'm not sure what you do with these boxy high rises.
They really don't work for residential because you know, most of the spaces
interior space that would not have any windows. I guess you could build storage
or grow houses, you know, and put apartments around the perimeter and have
you know, start growing crops there, whatever they might be, and and
really go hand in hand with the concept of the fifteen minute city, right,
Um, yeah, and and and that's that's probably one of the unnerving
things, you know, when you actually going back to we were talking about,
you know, a couple months ago. Um, fundamentally, the numbers
still aren't working, you know. I mean we're starting to see the expansion
of the economy, the market lengths that, but you know, you've got
all this debt, you know, and yes, the national debt we're approaching
thirty three trillion, but the consumer debt, the corporate debt, and these
loans that are coming due. You know, I think the banks cannot absorb
those assets and write it off. It's it's just it's too expansive. And
so you know, how how are they going to handle that? Um?
You know, the buyouts because it's going to be so large, you know,
are you going to have the Big three or Big four come in and
eat up all these these little banks and barblem all um, and then you
know, less competition. And it's really going to affect the small business owners
going forward, which is going to also be a dredge on on the economy
because a lot of businesses can't get the credit and loans right now to continue
to Yeah, and yet I continue to get credit card offers in my mailbox
every day. Inn't it crazy? It's nuts. Um. So I talking
to a car dealership owner of a car dealership, and uh, you know,
he was telling me that depending on the credit score for new cars,
unless you go directly from the manufacturer, um, you're having to put way
more money down than what you used to and especially if it's a used car.
But you know you have luxury vehicles like UTVs, ATVs, you know
those types where m you know, the used market was so excessive that banks
are finally starting to price in Well, you know that's not the real value.
We're not going to give you a loan on that, um. And
based on what the real value is, you're still going to have to put
a little bit down. So things are starting to change. Credits are really
starting to get tight all the way across the board. And so when you
see it from the you know, the the the asset appreciable asset class like
you know, cars and UTVs, ATVs and boats, um, you know,
just imagine what that's going to look like. You know, in the
commercial real estate space, it's going to be harder and harder for people to
refinance those loans and those deals to be bloody actually go ahead, it's going
to be a bloody mass. Say you see the big indicators, the RV
index. Yes, cells are down because that interest rates are up making them.
I guess if you want one of those one that's like a bus,
you know, you'd be paying more than a higher note than you'd be paying
on your house. And also the Rolex index. Rolex prices are down around
the world. And then we got China, which is an absolute basket case.
I don't I don't see where they come back, no matter how much
money they pump into the economy because you know, the real estate market is
dead in the water there. So we got like a lot of headwinds.
And yet I guess the pres option is the US economy. It's the best
looking house in Baltimore, right, the best of the worst, right.
I mean that's uh in in in in the near term. Um, you
know, through this year, I think it does not look bad. But
what scares me is, you know, the the weakening of the US dollar,
right and bricks a um, you know, the the US possibly losing
their status as the reserve currency of the world. You know, bricks are
coming in saying that, you know, they're going to have their digital currency,
but it's going to be backed by gold. Um. You know what's
that going to do to the US dollar? And if we lose the status
as the reserve currency of the world, you know for trading dollars. Um.
You know, life in America it's going to be it's going to be
different, it really is. And what's that going to look like as it
relates to you know, these loans that are outstanding. Yeah, Houston,
we have a problem, but but you know, the bricks thing doesn't really
bother me. Have been the worst performing economies for the past since the GFC,
since the global financial collapse, They've all performed horribly. You know,
China, you can't believe any our numbers are political diced and sliced, but
China's are lack of all credibility. They wouldn't lie about their numbers now,
not them, not them, But you know, you look at it and
then all of their Belton Road initiative that everyone was so enamored of. All
the countries are defaulting on that debt, and you know there's like a lot
so the bricks thing for the time being, who's gold? How much?
How can we trust them? Because you know the Chinese, you know,
you you got to take it with a grain. They're like into hyper hypothecation
and cross collateralizing the same collateral over and over and over again. We've seen
that. So you know, right now the dollar is where it's at.
If you've got to park ten billion dollars over the weekend, are you going
to put it in the Export Bank of China or are you going to put
it at JP Morgan Chase? Right? I mean, well, I think
that's why the dollar, you know, jumped up above one hundred again you
know it did below, But I mean where else are you going to go?
Because the you know, the economists looked at the GDP for for China
and said, well, you know, obviously it's it's inflated, um and
you know Russia, I mean, obviously that's that's not going to make a
whole lot of sense. So again, you know it's it's the best of
the worst. I mean, it really is. These are the best of
times. They were the worst of times. From a Tale of Two Cities
in the Dickens, you know, novel. So we're in the best of
all possible economies, we're in the worst. And I guess it depends where
you are. I mean the state of our cities here, they're just they're
self imploding, totally unnecessary, and they can't figure out why people are leaving.
You think personal safety might just play a role in that. Look at
you look at Florida. Real estate prices are up for the past year,
in the face of all of these rate hikes. They're up, and you
know what that my property down there? Yeah? You know what that Yeah,
there's no inventory. You know what that tells me people want to get
out of those blue It's not political, just the hike, prime declining quality
of life cities, and come to Florida and Texas and other places in the
South. Georgia's growing incredibly North Carolina, South Carolina. You know, they
are the poorer sisters of Florida. Really, Georgia two. Florida is the
wealthiest statement in the country, arguably other than you know, New York was
California. Florida probably has a clips it because the financial center has moved to
Miami from New York, all these hedge funds. You know, I knew
it when I moved down and I saw, oh, well, Goldman's open
in a little branch office here, just so the executives can get away during
the winter and work in the better climate. But I knew this was a
trend that they were all marching for the door. A point being here that
you know, if you're if you're getting diagnosed with a migraine and you have
a brain tumor, it's not going to do you much good in the long
run. Popping down those aspirants, they're not going to help. And they're
saying, well, you know, people are leaving these cities because they want
better weather. But you know, at some point you got to admit people
don't want to be in Chicago because they're afraid of their own personal safety.
And that is the biggest factor in the migratory trends, let's be honest about
it. Well, I mean, look at California. You've got a lot
of very very large, you know, private firms moving out. And the
gentleman, forgive me, I can't think of his name, who's running against
the the La da gascon um. You know, a common sense He's like,
you know, we're we're going to start, you know, prosecuting people
for crimes. What a novel idea? Yeah, I mean the fact that
that's what you're going to run on, um, it tells you the depravity,
the current level of depravity in the cities, in the lack of law
and order. Um. And I think people are tired of it, and
that's why they're migrating to those areas where they feel steep and can raise a
family. Hey, you know he's running on his opponents, running on the
we're going to prosecute crime, and he might lose. Look what happened with
the Chicago mayoral to race the guy who believes that the police cause crime one.
You know, yeah, well if you consider that they compile statistics,
and if you didn't have the police, there be no statistics. Therefore the
crime crime rate would be at zero, then yeah, the police cause crime.
You know, are they perfect? No, we all know that.
But I'd much rather see them patrolling the streets than than having to do it
myself and become a vigilante. And that's what they're They're embracing the return of
vigilanteism. And then if you defend yourself, you get prosecuted by these sos.
Soura's das right. Well, anyway, I don't want to. That's
exactly good. You know we could, yes, yeah, but you have
a whole other conversation on this. Yeah, and it's political. It's not
political, it's made no rights. Safety is a fundamental human right. You're
right to defend yourself, fundamental human right, nothing to do with politics,
And no you don't. It's an American right. I like liberty and the
happiness. I mean, that's really what it comes down to. You in
your light and liberty and if you're if you can move about freely without being
in fear for your life. Um, when when you're having encampments in your
yard and you're having to leave your your windows rolled down and your car unlocked
so that people don't break into it, this is not a political thing.
This is more of a look depravity of the system and what do we need
to do to fix it? Um? You know. The good thing is
is that people are saying we're done, We're tired of it, and you
know, I, you know, I hopefully they they've woken the sleeping giant
and things are going to start to turn and we'll get the people in office
to fix it. Were what side of the fence? As long as it
gets fixed, let us hope, I mean, yeah, guess you know,
the South has lots of problems. Traditionally the South was more violent than
the North. Um, and that all changed, you know a number of
years ago. Where the north you know. Well, in any event,
Hey, Ed, tell us where we find you? How we connect with
you on the web? Yeah? EGSI financial dot com. That is the
best place to find us, all right, eg SI Financial dot com.
Yeah, okay, The link to that is in the show notes on this
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Make sure you go there. Sign
up for your free newsletter and if you've got a question comment for Ed myself
email k l at kryltz dot com. Write your YouTube comments down below,
sign you know, subscribe, share all that good stuff, favorite and ed.
We'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for coming on, Hey,
thanks for having me, Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network,
your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,