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That is probably one of the unnerving
things, you know, when you actually

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going back to we were talking about, you know, a couple months ago,

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fundamentally the numbers still aren't working,
you know. I mean, we're

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starting to see the expansion of the
economy, the market lens that, but

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you know, you've got all this
debt, you know, and yes,

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the national debt we're approaching thirty three
trillion, but the consumer debt, the

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corporate debt, and these loans that
are coming due. You know, I

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think the banks cannot absorb those assets
and write it off. It's it's just

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it's too expansive. You're listening to
Carrie Let's Financial Survival Network, where you

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00:00:37,759 --> 00:00:43,600
get valuable information you just can't find
anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times.

11
00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:49,359
You need the Financial Survival Network now
more than ever. Go to Financial

12
00:00:49,399 --> 00:00:54,960
Survival and Network dot com and get
your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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00:00:55,079 --> 00:01:03,519
Network now more than ever, And
welcome you are listening to watching the Financial

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00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,120
Survival Network. I'm your host,
Kerry Lutz. Well, imagine if they

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threw a recession and nobody came or
have you heard that the economists are so

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good they have called five out of
the last three recessions. They're always calling

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for recessions. Are they right?
Are they wrong? Let's talk with our

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good friend ed sidell and get the
lowdown. So recession or no. You

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know what, I think most of
us assumed that the economy was not as

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strong as as it is, myself
included, right, And you know I've

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been saying for since we were talking
last year, right, that we've kind

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of been in a rolling recession.
And we had the two negative quarters of

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GDP last year. So I think
we actually had a recession last year,

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but I really felt I thought the
end of this year, going into twenty

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twenty four, we were definitely going
to have one. But I think the

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economy stronger than and a little bit
more resilient than what we anticipated. And

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and you can see it in the
markets, right, I mean, investors

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are less fearful. If you look
at the futures market, you know,

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the dollar being weaker, which is
a double edged sword, but that's kind

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of helping, you know, the
lifeblood of America, which are small businesses

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because the exchange rate is is lower, so a less competition, and uh,

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you know we're seeing it in small
cap stocks so yeah, I think

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we're going to continue to expand,
and the GDP numbers are are showing that,

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So yeah, I I we have
it's going to be very very mild

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at best. What about the commercial
real estate apocalypse? What about hiking crisis

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which is ongoing. They just took
over pack West, they actually handled that

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bank seizure the way they should have
handled SVB. We wouldn't maybe have as

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bad a banking disaster as we have
now. Uh, you know they you

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know Janet yellah, no, no, there will not be a bell out.

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There will not be a bank baillout. And then I guess she got

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the call from OWL and said,
well, if there's no bank bailout,

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there's no economy because it will result
in a global collapse and bank runs and

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every bank in every country on the
planet. So but we still have those

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two major things coming up. I
don't know if the full huge extent of

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the commercial meltdown, commercial real estate
meltdown has been appreciated or understood by the

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markets and its potential effect adverse effect
on the banking sector. You know,

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I think in my opinion that the
markets and retail investors and and that's why

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the growth in the market was so
narrow, right, it's starting to broaden

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out a little bit, but it's
still very narrow. When you're when you're

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thinking of, you know, a
bull market and the economy expanding, they're

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just ignoring it. So short term, um, you know, the market

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is on an uptick and it is
going to finish the year strong. The

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caveat is debt UM and it's huge. You know, you've got the personal

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debt credit cards. We talk about
this all the time, all time high

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people are living, offer credit cards
to be able to make ends meet,

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and then you've got the commercial loan. If the economy continues to be strong

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and continues to expand, you know, I think the market has already priced

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in one more raise UM. But
if if it continues to grow and Pal

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holds true to what he says and
continues to raise rates, we're going to

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see UM financial failure like we haven't
seen before. It's it's it's going to

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be huge because we're looking at over
three trillion dollars coming new in the next

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couple of years. UM. So
I was talking to an executive of of

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a large regional bank UM and they
were telling me that they're not even writing

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loans right now, UM and they're
very strong I rated UM. But the

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when these loans come due, the
problem is is that the UM the they're

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not going to be able to qualify
with the new collateral requirements UM and and

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have the money down to to go
forward. So I think that is going

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to be the that's an outlier,
uh or that's a that's an issue,

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that's that's on the outskirts right now
that could hit home. UM. But

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you know again, you know retail
investors UM and the markets they're they're just

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they're ignoring it, they're not seeing
it. And you know it comes down

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to you know what from investing,
you know, you got to hit your

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bets, make a little bit of
hey while the sun shines, but you

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can't get too greedy. Well,
hey, you look at what's doing with

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these office buildings. People are you
know, come back somewhat but half of

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them and hat is empty. And
all these high rents that you've seen in

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these major areas all predicated upon major
occupancy rates high nineties plus and escalating rents

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going up five to ten percent a
year into the future. So now that

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all those assumptions have been destroyed,
we're left to pick up the pieces.

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And you know, I'm not sure
what you do with these boxy high rises.

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They really don't work for residential because
you know, most of the spaces

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interior space that would not have any
windows. I guess you could build storage

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or grow houses, you know,
and put apartments around the perimeter and have

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you know, start growing crops there, whatever they might be, and and

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really go hand in hand with the
concept of the fifteen minute city, right,

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Um, yeah, and and and
that's that's probably one of the unnerving

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things, you know, when you
actually going back to we were talking about,

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you know, a couple months ago. Um, fundamentally, the numbers

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still aren't working, you know.
I mean we're starting to see the expansion

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of the economy, the market lengths
that, but you know, you've got

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all this debt, you know,
and yes, the national debt we're approaching

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thirty three trillion, but the consumer
debt, the corporate debt, and these

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loans that are coming due. You
know, I think the banks cannot absorb

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those assets and write it off.
It's it's just it's too expansive. And

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so you know, how how are
they going to handle that? Um?

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You know, the buyouts because it's
going to be so large, you know,

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are you going to have the Big
three or Big four come in and

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eat up all these these little banks
and barblem all um, and then you

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know, less competition. And it's
really going to affect the small business owners

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going forward, which is going to
also be a dredge on on the economy

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because a lot of businesses can't get
the credit and loans right now to continue

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to Yeah, and yet I continue
to get credit card offers in my mailbox

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every day. Inn't it crazy?
It's nuts. Um. So I talking

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to a car dealership owner of a
car dealership, and uh, you know,

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he was telling me that depending on
the credit score for new cars,

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unless you go directly from the manufacturer, um, you're having to put way

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more money down than what you used
to and especially if it's a used car.

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But you know you have luxury vehicles
like UTVs, ATVs, you know

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those types where m you know,
the used market was so excessive that banks

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are finally starting to price in Well, you know that's not the real value.

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We're not going to give you a
loan on that, um. And

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based on what the real value is, you're still going to have to put

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a little bit down. So things
are starting to change. Credits are really

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starting to get tight all the way
across the board. And so when you

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see it from the you know,
the the the asset appreciable asset class like

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you know, cars and UTVs,
ATVs and boats, um, you know,

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just imagine what that's going to look
like. You know, in the

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commercial real estate space, it's going
to be harder and harder for people to

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refinance those loans and those deals to
be bloody actually go ahead, it's going

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to be a bloody mass. Say
you see the big indicators, the RV

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index. Yes, cells are down
because that interest rates are up making them.

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I guess if you want one of
those one that's like a bus,

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you know, you'd be paying more
than a higher note than you'd be paying

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on your house. And also the
Rolex index. Rolex prices are down around

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the world. And then we got
China, which is an absolute basket case.

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I don't I don't see where they
come back, no matter how much

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money they pump into the economy because
you know, the real estate market is

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dead in the water there. So
we got like a lot of headwinds.

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And yet I guess the pres option
is the US economy. It's the best

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looking house in Baltimore, right,
the best of the worst, right.

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I mean that's uh in in in
in the near term. Um, you

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know, through this year, I
think it does not look bad. But

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what scares me is, you know, the the weakening of the US dollar,

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right and bricks a um, you
know, the the US possibly losing

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their status as the reserve currency of
the world. You know, bricks are

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coming in saying that, you know, they're going to have their digital currency,

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but it's going to be backed by
gold. Um. You know what's

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that going to do to the US
dollar? And if we lose the status

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as the reserve currency of the world, you know for trading dollars. Um.

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You know, life in America it's
going to be it's going to be

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different, it really is. And
what's that going to look like as it

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relates to you know, these loans
that are outstanding. Yeah, Houston,

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we have a problem, but but
you know, the bricks thing doesn't really

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bother me. Have been the worst
performing economies for the past since the GFC,

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since the global financial collapse, They've
all performed horribly. You know,

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China, you can't believe any our
numbers are political diced and sliced, but

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China's are lack of all credibility.
They wouldn't lie about their numbers now,

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not them, not them, But
you know, you look at it and

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then all of their Belton Road initiative
that everyone was so enamored of. All

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the countries are defaulting on that debt, and you know there's like a lot

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so the bricks thing for the time
being, who's gold? How much?

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How can we trust them? Because
you know the Chinese, you know,

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you you got to take it with
a grain. They're like into hyper hypothecation

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and cross collateralizing the same collateral over
and over and over again. We've seen

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that. So you know, right
now the dollar is where it's at.

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00:12:03,399 --> 00:12:07,600
If you've got to park ten billion
dollars over the weekend, are you going

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to put it in the Export Bank
of China or are you going to put

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it at JP Morgan Chase? Right? I mean, well, I think

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that's why the dollar, you know, jumped up above one hundred again you

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know it did below, But I
mean where else are you going to go?

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Because the you know, the economists
looked at the GDP for for China

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and said, well, you know, obviously it's it's inflated, um and

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you know Russia, I mean,
obviously that's that's not going to make a

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whole lot of sense. So again, you know it's it's the best of

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the worst. I mean, it
really is. These are the best of

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times. They were the worst of
times. From a Tale of Two Cities

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in the Dickens, you know,
novel. So we're in the best of

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all possible economies, we're in the
worst. And I guess it depends where

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you are. I mean the state
of our cities here, they're just they're

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00:13:01,639 --> 00:13:07,559
self imploding, totally unnecessary, and
they can't figure out why people are leaving.

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You think personal safety might just play
a role in that. Look at

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you look at Florida. Real estate
prices are up for the past year,

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in the face of all of these
rate hikes. They're up, and you

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know what that my property down there? Yeah? You know what that Yeah,

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there's no inventory. You know what
that tells me people want to get

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out of those blue It's not political, just the hike, prime declining quality

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00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:41,720
of life cities, and come to
Florida and Texas and other places in the

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South. Georgia's growing incredibly North Carolina, South Carolina. You know, they

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are the poorer sisters of Florida.
Really, Georgia two. Florida is the

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wealthiest statement in the country, arguably
other than you know, New York was

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California. Florida probably has a clips
it because the financial center has moved to

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Miami from New York, all these
hedge funds. You know, I knew

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00:14:07,519 --> 00:14:09,679
it when I moved down and I
saw, oh, well, Goldman's open

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00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:15,000
in a little branch office here,
just so the executives can get away during

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00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,600
the winter and work in the better
climate. But I knew this was a

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00:14:18,639 --> 00:14:24,000
trend that they were all marching for
the door. A point being here that

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you know, if you're if you're
getting diagnosed with a migraine and you have

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00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,399
a brain tumor, it's not going
to do you much good in the long

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00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:37,080
run. Popping down those aspirants,
they're not going to help. And they're

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00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,759
saying, well, you know,
people are leaving these cities because they want

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00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:45,360
better weather. But you know,
at some point you got to admit people

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00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:50,200
don't want to be in Chicago because
they're afraid of their own personal safety.

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00:14:50,519 --> 00:14:54,440
And that is the biggest factor in
the migratory trends, let's be honest about

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00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,720
it. Well, I mean,
look at California. You've got a lot

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00:14:56,759 --> 00:15:01,559
of very very large, you know, private firms moving out. And the

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00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,360
gentleman, forgive me, I can't
think of his name, who's running against

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00:15:03,399 --> 00:15:09,960
the the La da gascon um.
You know, a common sense He's like,

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00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,720
you know, we're we're going to
start, you know, prosecuting people

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00:15:13,759 --> 00:15:16,399
for crimes. What a novel idea? Yeah, I mean the fact that

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that's what you're going to run on, um, it tells you the depravity,

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00:15:20,759 --> 00:15:24,600
the current level of depravity in the
cities, in the lack of law

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and order. Um. And I
think people are tired of it, and

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00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:33,080
that's why they're migrating to those areas
where they feel steep and can raise a

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00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,840
family. Hey, you know he's
running on his opponents, running on the

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we're going to prosecute crime, and
he might lose. Look what happened with

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the Chicago mayoral to race the guy
who believes that the police cause crime one.

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You know, yeah, well if
you consider that they compile statistics,

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and if you didn't have the police, there be no statistics. Therefore the

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crime crime rate would be at zero, then yeah, the police cause crime.

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You know, are they perfect?
No, we all know that.

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But I'd much rather see them patrolling
the streets than than having to do it

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myself and become a vigilante. And
that's what they're They're embracing the return of

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vigilanteism. And then if you defend
yourself, you get prosecuted by these sos.

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Soura's das right. Well, anyway, I don't want to. That's

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exactly good. You know we could, yes, yeah, but you have

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a whole other conversation on this.
Yeah, and it's political. It's not

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political, it's made no rights.
Safety is a fundamental human right. You're

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right to defend yourself, fundamental human
right, nothing to do with politics,

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And no you don't. It's an
American right. I like liberty and the

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happiness. I mean, that's really
what it comes down to. You in

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your light and liberty and if you're
if you can move about freely without being

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in fear for your life. Um, when when you're having encampments in your

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yard and you're having to leave your
your windows rolled down and your car unlocked

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so that people don't break into it, this is not a political thing.

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This is more of a look depravity
of the system and what do we need

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to do to fix it? Um? You know. The good thing is

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is that people are saying we're done, We're tired of it, and you

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know, I, you know,
I hopefully they they've woken the sleeping giant

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and things are going to start to
turn and we'll get the people in office

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to fix it. Were what side
of the fence? As long as it

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gets fixed, let us hope,
I mean, yeah, guess you know,

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the South has lots of problems.
Traditionally the South was more violent than

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the North. Um, and that
all changed, you know a number of

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years ago. Where the north you
know. Well, in any event,

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Hey, Ed, tell us where
we find you? How we connect with

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00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:03,920
you on the web? Yeah?
EGSI financial dot com. That is the

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00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:10,200
best place to find us, all
right, eg SI Financial dot com.

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Yeah, okay, The link to
that is in the show notes on this

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00:18:14,759 --> 00:18:18,160
interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Make sure you go there. Sign

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00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,759
up for your free newsletter and if
you've got a question comment for Ed myself

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00:18:23,039 --> 00:18:27,960
email k l at kryltz dot com. Write your YouTube comments down below,

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00:18:29,519 --> 00:18:33,480
sign you know, subscribe, share
all that good stuff, favorite and ed.

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00:18:33,559 --> 00:18:36,960
We'll talk to you again soon.
Thanks for coming on, Hey,

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00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:41,880
thanks for having me, Thanks for
listening to carry Lets's Financial Survival Network,

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00:18:41,079 --> 00:18:47,559
your solution to today's trying times.
For the latest, go to Financial Survival

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00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:52,559
Network dot com. Financial Survival Network
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