What is krak Alakin Fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dan Favalle coming at
you with my certified fantabulous co host, mister Grant Hughes. It is playoff
season officially, because we know actual playoff series rather than just playing games.
We are going to provide our primers for all six series that we know about,
and we will finish the one eight matchups on Friday night schedules permitting.
But first and foremost, before we dive into these shindigs, Grant, how
the heck are you doing? I'm doing great. I am excited to talk
about these series. The playing games have mostly been entertaining to this point,
so I got like the I got the postseason itch going. I'm I will
say, after the lasts you don't know, not several weeks, but a
few days of the regular season, so refreshing to have these like high intensity
do or die games, and we'll just get more of them in the playoffs.
You all, I always, I don't want to say you, I
always forget how much better the first round is than whatever led up to it
down the stretch of the season, with some exceptions. But haven't you noticed
that, haven't you felt how different these games it felt just the plays really
too. Yeah, I don't know. There's people who tweet like, I
love the play and I don't care what you say. And it's funny because
I haven't really talked anyone who dislikes the play, and I'm sure fans of
seven eight seas would prefer not to have to do it. What have you
made though of the sentiment? And this steps on the toes of your point,
where it's the NBA is a problem because they can't replicate this intensity during
the regular season, where it's like it's so clearly there's this separated between playoff
basketball and regular season basketball. I hadn't really thought about that, to be
honest, but I will say friend of the podcast from CBS Sports Canada,
Edwards had said, it feels like NBA fans are the only ones who can
plain about this because the playoff level hockey is so much different from uh,
you know, regular season and NHL games. And I think I kind of
fall on his side of the spectrum there where it's I don't watch baseball or
really follow it, but you're gonna tell me you're replicating one hundred and sixty
two games worth of postseason stakes, like across those performances. This just always
feels like, to answer my own question, we're always constantly comparing this league
to the NFL, which above all else has a scarcity of product that none
of these other leagues are ever going to have. I think it's I think
basketball is just distinct. I mean, one, it is a problem,
and two it's not going to be solved because the solution is fewer games,
and that takes money out of everybody's pockets, and that's not going to happen.
So that's part of the games in the new CBAF why there's an eighty
third game. Yeah, so things are going I think. The other thing
so like football, for example, I feel like if you half asset in
football, there's a great chance you're just gonna get clawbered and injured, you
know, or embarrassed type of things. So that's one. Baseball, the
season's incredibly long, and the playoffs are different because of the fan intensity,
I think, and like just the gravity of moments. But like the hitter
versus pitcher battle is intensely combative and you know competitive, like you can't go
up there and you're like, I'm just gonna kind of go through the motions
in this at bat, because no, you're just gonna get you're gonna strike
out, you know every So, like every sport's different, and basketball,
I think it probably is a little easier to be casual about it or play
at eighty percent instead of one hundred percent and get away with it. So
that's the other part of it. But like, the real issue is never
gonna go anywhere because we're not gonna have a We're not gonna have a seventeen
game season. We're certain, let alone like sixty five. That's just not
gonna happen. And isn't I don't even know the answer to this question,
but how many teams make MLB postseason? Like the fewer, but they've increased
it in the last year or two. They've added wildcard games to it,
which is so brutal because after you know, if you think getting eliminated in
a one game playoff in a in a basketball season sucks, imagine playing one
hundred playing twice as many games and your season comes down to one game.
That's rough. I expect if you made like a shift to where it's,
oh, only six teams make the playoffs. First two Seeds get a buy
and you structure the playoffs that way. That'd probably open up the NBA to
a lot more tanking, which we know, yeah, will warrant many investigations.
They're staging into this only if it's the MAVs and Mark Cuban, though
they're the only team that gets investigated. Yeah, absolutely hysterical. Are you
ready to preview the twenty twenty three NBA Playoffs? So ready, let's get
to Sixers Nets. The way we're gonna do this, we'll just bounce around
with our biggest questions or thoughts about this series. And so I will throw
it to you to begin this one. Just what are you really thinking about
as you go into Sixer's Nets? Yeah, So I started doing prep for
these. The first thing I did was just what's my nutshell reaction, what's
my overarching, overly broad thought on each series? And so for this one,
it's that essentially Brooklyn is eleven and thirteen since they all star break.
Kyle Kuzma, I think, pointed some of that out to Spencer Dinwitty there,
which is to say that the Nets overall record has a little bit to
do with the guys that used to be on the team, and so that's
just to say that Brooklyn is not has not been a good team. There
have been interesting aspects to its season after the trade deadline, but it's under
five hundred offenses, number twenty four in the league, and ultimately they do
not have the bodies to contend with Joel Embiad, And so that's that's where
I start. I just see this being a short series where the best player
in it is not going to meet enough resistance to be slowed down. But
there are definitely different ways we could go trying to point out six Ers weaknesses
or what might work for Brooklyn on either end of the floor. But that's
my that's my over overwhelming sense of the series. It's not it's not super
complicated. So I mean maybe if if you feel differently, or if you
want to just you know, take the first plunge into some more granular stuff,
I would flip it to you. But do you see I mean that
seems like the simplest, you know, analysis of this series is that Embiad
is there, the Nets don't have what it's going to take to stop him
from doing Embiad stuff. I'm with you on everything you said, and That's
how I've looked at this series initially, but then I decided to approach it
as what could go wrong for Philly or be done right for Brooklyn that would
turn this series into I think everyone's gonna say Sixers and four or five would
be the prevailing and we'll get to our predictions, but I think that'll be
the prevailing pick. So some of the things I landed on. There's the
Brooklyn Bigs versus Embad matchup. Dayron Sharpe is a very big human. He's
like two hundred and sixty five pounds. Offensive rebounds the hell out of the
ball. We know the Sixers have had their problems with defensive rebounding. Is
he and okay matchup for Embiad. I also went back and looked at the
regular season, and I think this surprised me. And it's a small sample
size under seventy possessions. But when Nick Claxton defended Joel Embiad in the regular
season, the Nets as a team, the Sixers as a team, excuse
me, average point nine four points per possession, which is not good.
Now they no longer have Kevin Durant, who was a huge part of their
health defense before he was injured and was ultimately traded. There's that factor,
and I think over the course of just a series, Nick Claxton has given
up like sixty pounds to Joel Embiid and so that that's not going to hold,
and so I kind of write that off. But I did find it
fascinating that even under the previous iteration of the nets, because like you do
have Dorian Phinney Smith, and so if you try to make him you're Kevin
Durant and use Nick Clackson the way that you're going to use him. But
I ultimately don't ascribe too much value to that, do you that number?
Not? Really I do have. I did have the same thought of you
know, if so, how does it how does it look in a hypothetical
where the nets make this more interesting? I don't think they can win it,
but you know what needs to happen. I think Claxton making himbiad guard
him a little bit out on the floor because one of the improvements Claxton made
this year was he's gotten so much better. As you know, fifteen eighteen
feet h he can take one dribble and get to the rim and beat a
beat. Most centers because he's quick, you can fake handoffs like that kind
of stuff. So that's one. And maybe maybe you pick up like two
fouls on Himbiad in the first quarter something like that, where he's just a
little lazy and reaches and you know, that's one way to do it.
I think, just generally speaking, it seems like a pretty obvious move for
the Nets to just find Harden in space and attack him defensively, like I
just try to make him involved in every action. That's going to be a
theme for me is just if you're looking for the underdog to do something surprising,
you just have to find a weak point and just exploit it to the
extent to whatever extent you can. So that's another one. Yeah, I
don't know. I think you might say, like Ebiad's gonna be in a
drop most of the game. So if the Net, like if the Nets
guards can run hot from on pull up threes, if Embiad's not out to
contest, and you know, the ball handler defender doesn't get close enough like
that's I could see that there's just a lot of stuff that's got to go
right. I think a few too many of those things for Brooklyn to win.
I actually do have that circle though with imbad and drop, and it
was to that point the Nets post mcal Bridge's debut, we're in the top
ten of long mid range freak quency and accuracy, and so is that their
path two of him? He is going to be in the drop. You
just count on him, Spencer Dinwoody, depending on how many minutes you know,
some of their other guards are just going a player or wing players or
whoever you kind of trust to take shots on this team right now, where
you know Cam Johnson even has like a little bit of the pull up game
to him, does Cam Thomas ginam and is in this series you have Patty
Mills, Royce O'Neil, Joe Harris, Seth Curry. Depending on how many
minutes those guys play. However, you mentioned the James Harden point. This
team really isn't built to attack the James Harden mismatch because who's doing it.
The Nets were in the bottom five of rim pressure after the mcail bridges trade,
and there's just nothing that's going to suggest that. I mean, and
Joel Beach is always going to be in the vicinity when he's on the floor.
So your best bet, I think a generating rim pressure is can you
have Nick Klaxton get after it when it beats not on the court, but
you need his minutes to mirror and beads minutes, I would say, And
so that's sort of the other problem, and it led me to just wondering
is the nets is the two things that I could see, and they're both
James Harden related, but it's on the offensive end. One, what does
James Harden look like with his achilles is? Can he attack mismatches? And
even how many mismatches does he yet? Because the nets they're raine and athletic
on the wings, Dorian Finney, Smith, Roy's O'Neill mcaal bridges himself like
those are. Even Spencer didn't. He can make him work on certain possessions.
And so if you're able to not, I don't look at this as
a team that neutralizes James Harden. And it's tough to parse the end of
the regular season and say, well, James Harden ran hot and cold,
he missed some time. The Sixers, even though they were playing a tough
schedule, weren't in a ton of high stakes games during that closing kick,
like they kind of knew where they were going to settle for the playoffs.
But if James Harden isn't, you know, we can go through James Harden's
playoff resume. But even last year when the whole oh the ball didn't find
me, he ran hot and cold. Then he was still able to put
and he was dealing with hamstring stuff. Put defenses in rotation, make good
passes. If he's just limited or just really dealing with an achilles issue and
banged up, does that give the Nets a puncher's chance or are you just
able to pivot to Tyrese Maxey's blazing fast. Just give him the ball in
those catching got situations and they'll be fine. Yeah, I think I think
even without the Achilles, I would I would expect this to be not necessarily
a big series for Harden because one, I mean, the Sixers are just
gonna try to eat why within bead at the elbows, and Harden's just gonna
give it to him and get out of they. I think if you get
switches, if you're setting screens with embiid on Harden's man, I think Claxton
is more than capable of staying in front of Harden. So, like I
don't. I don't see a lot of isolation scoring or foul drawing from Harden.
I don't see big numbers, because that's to your point. The Nets
do have a lot of wing guys. They can just happen feel very good
about handling Harden, you know, anywhere on the floor, Bridges Dorian Phinney
Smith, like Harris, has the size even because Harden is not blazing fast
anymore, Cam Johnson should be fine. Like so, I don't see Harden
having a big series. I don't think he needs to. But I think
if you're if you want to flip to the other end, you know,
other than din Witty. So let's say, you know, because the sixers
can kind of get a little switchy and you sort of have to one through
four because Harden is just the terrible screen navigator other than din Witty. So
let's say, you know, oh, the Nets hit like three pull up
threes in the first quarter because it beads in a drop, and now we
need to blitz Dinwitty, assuming that's who it is, if you get the
ball out of his hands. I'm not sure. I think I see anyone
else on the Nets consistently making plays like in an advantage situation after Dinwitty has
gotten off the ball or whoever is getting doubled gets off the ball, because
you know, Bridges has been awesome, but he's still if there's some distance
for him to go yet it's still has a passer, Like he's not an
intuitive, you know, make the right decision right away kind of passer yet,
So I think, if I mean this is bad that a lot of
this series kind of seems to depend on Dinwitty because like, who do you
think is the is the guy that's gonna you know, it gets gets out
of Dinwitty's hands because the six are sent two at him and somebody else has
it. Who do you want catching the ball in that situation that's going to
run the second side pick and roll or straight line drip or whatever. Like
I don't I don't feel great about almost any of Brooklyn's options, with no
disrespect to Bridges, but he's just made tons of shots. It's and scored
in isolation. It's not quite like he's gonna run your offense when he has
to. I would say probably Patty Mills, but I don't know how many
minutes you expect him to play until if it's not him, is it Royce
O'Neill, Like, is that you don't feel good about that? Right?
That's I mean, it's not a revelation to say, like, the Nets
don't have a lot of great options because they're not as good as a team.
But I think for me, I think the way this has to work
for Brooklyn offensively is one they hit those pull up threes. Two if the
Sixers have to change anything, which kind of seems unlikely. You're generating corner
threes in advantage situations where you just dump it to the role guy and he
finds Patty Mills in the corner, or he finds Joe Harris on the wing
or whatever. That if I close my eyes, I can imagine that being
a way that the Nets score enough. But I just, yeah, I
don't know, I'm ready. Do we need to Is there anything else you
wanted to hit on this before we make our picks and move to the next
one. Does the Ben Simmons absence factor, like, do would he have
nudged the needle defensively for the Nets for you at all? Or more importantly,
will he wear our orange pants at all on the sidelines during the series.
Yeah, pint color is probably the bigger variable than what he would do
for this. I think he's just kind of duplicative to what Brooklyn has a
lot of already, which are good defenders, because I think offensively, you
put him out there, you might say, well, that's the guy you
want to throw it to if you're getting it out of a double team.
But then like, he's not gonna shoot it, So I'm not I'm not
that concerned. No, I don't. I don't think his presence or absence
really matters that much, which is kind of a bummer that sort of encapsulates
where we are in the Ben Simmons experience. I hope he ends up just
in like fucking Charlotte or San Antonio and is able to reboot like low stakes
like Mark hell Fault Orlando. I hope that's what happens. What's your NETS
sixers series prediction. I'll just go sixers and five. I think it's probably
closer to a sweep than a six game series to me, if I you
know, if I had to say which way I was leaning on that five
game, I'm gonna go with sixers in five two, which I think we
can call the cowards pick because it really should just be sixers in four,
but the non ebied minutes are still dicey, and if you decide to go,
yeah, you can go bigger with Paul Reid as the backup five,
but you can go smaller with PJ. Tucker. But I don't envy PJ
Tucker having a like guard. You mentioned him guarding day Ron Sharp, who's
played a lot more for Brooklyn, and he's just going to clean up the
He's gonna be a hoover on the offensive glass. So I'll go with sixers
in five there too. Next series is Celtics Hawks. What are you thinking
about leading into this one? Yeah, I think so nutshell. Again,
the Celtics are too deep, they're too talented, they have way too many
guys to bother Trey Young and make him have another really shitty playoff performance.
So I don't feel like this is close. I think watching the play in
a little bit and seeing the Hawks kind of control that game against the Heat.
I mean a Heat team that just like their offense, just sucks.
It's still bad. I hope I picked the Bulls to make I picked the
Bulls in the heat to come out of the play in for the East.
I'm clearly gonna be wrong. I hope it's the Bulls. They're they're a
more people to say, well Butler and how to bio and like that's the
tougher mat No, I think it's the Bulls, Like I give me their
ball pressure on defense, with the shot making of the Rosen and Zach will
be in the half court at this point, it's it's really hard to have
faith in the heat, even though I did just watching that offensive game,
It's just it's rough. So uh, I just think you know that that's
the that's the easy pick for me. The Celtics just I mean, you
know, we I feel like we spend a lot of time almost concern trolling
for the Celtics, Like, you know, is Jason Tatum really the guy
that can get you a shot? You know down the stretch of you know,
several clutch possessions? What about the turnovers? Like you know what,
Marcus Smart's not like, come on, the Celtics are still awesome. I
think they still ended up with the best net rating in the league for the
season, So uh, I don't we can get into the details more,
but just like by default, you a lot's got to go right for Atlanta
to even make this interesting. Yeah, And I think when you start to
look at their concerns, it immediately starts with the Jays. You have DeAndre
Hunter and Dejanta Murray. Those are bodies you can throw at the Jays.
They can't play forty eight minutes, and so you're in a position where Jalen
Johnson you're gonna need to be relying on him. Do you trust a deep
Bay who Actually I thought it was pretty good defensively good in that playing game
to Bay had been like sort of a defensive mess for a while, and
yeah, he held up. Going up against the Jays is different from that
slog fest of the the Miami offense. And then also just Derek White this
season when he's defending Trey Young, the Hawks are averaging one point zero one
points per possession. That's not great. So if he puts Trey Young in
hell, what are sort of your counters there? You do have Dejanta Murray,
you do have the John Collins floor Jame. But that led me my
other question. It's Boston feels like they're gonna force based off how they've played
this year, even when RW three is how Boston feels like they're going to
force Atlanta to not play a lot of the dual big stuff, where like
the Collins Capella minutes are finite to begin with, but like that's going to
be more of a decision, where like even more of a decision than normal
for Atlanta against this team, it feels like, yeah, there's a lot
of interesting looks. So one of the other angles in that playing game between
Atlanta and Miami was how dominant Capella was on the boards, on the offensive
boards in particular. I think I think there's definitely a way that that could
be a factor if the Celtics don't force him to guard like say Al Horford
for example. Like that's another big, big sort of unknown is how what
how much RW three are we going to get? And like what version of
him are we going to get? And then is that even do you even
want that if you're Boston because I think spacing, spacing the floor a little
bit without him out there offensively might be a good way forward. But like
for so for the Hawks to succeed, I guess you know, again,
Cappella, just offensive rebounding is a big plus. I suppose possibility is probably
the better way to put it. But it's not like Boston's twelfth and defensive
rebound rates since the All Star Breaks, So they're fine. It's not like
this is you know, there's not gonna be Capella playing volleyball on the glass.
I don't think other than that, I think you probably just depend on
you know, you're gonna have to slip screens on switches. You're gonna have
to if you're the Hawks. I mean, you're gonna have to hope that
Young can just make a bunch of really deep threes to pull Boston out a
little further from the basket. I think like someone like John Collins is probably
gonna have to hit threes too. I think, really, as I think
about it, more, the way that the Hawks win this is the Celtics
missshots like that. That's to me, and that's possible, We've seen it
happen. But it's really difficult for me to schematically say, well, if
Atlanta can just get to this, this or this, it's gonna give Boston
problems just because of the personnel that the Celtics have and the different ways they
can deploy it. I don't feel like Trey Young is gonna just get into
the lane every time and either make layups or lob you know that, like
like he did against the Heat, you know, really under control. I
don't. I just don't see that happening against Boston. Yeah, And you
also, I worry about Atlanta's bench because some of their top end units have
been really good. And at the same time, it's like, well,
this could be an Yuko Congu series if you're looking for someone who can hold
up on a ton of switches, and Bota Bardonovitch Is three point volume is
just super important to them, and so maybe there's a path to them making
it interesting. It does feel like it would be more about Boston doing things
wrong than Atlanta maybe doing anything right, because I don't know what the defensive
ceiling of Atlanta is against peak Boston offense. And I will say Boston still
doesn't generate a ton of rim pressure. Even when Robert Williams the third is
on the floor, They're in the twelve percent tile of the frequency with with
their shots come at the rim, that inherently limits their free throw attempt rate.
Like we see guys like Tatum and Brown get to the line, and
Derek White's been pretty good at that and smart as well, but even a
lot of that stuff is predicated on drawing shooting fouls from the perimeter, which
is difficult Atlanta is really Their rim protection is fine, but teams to the
rim a ton against them. If Boston can't do that and they're still sort
of bailing out on the perimeter, You've already mentioned this, there's variability caked
into their performance, and I don't think it will be an issue against this
team. So this might be long term playoff stuff. But Jason Tatums jump
shooting like creation has not been up to snuff this year, and so there
have been seventy one players who have attempted at least one hundred pull up threes
this year. Jason Tatum ranks sixty seventh and three point percentage on that.
There have also been seventy one players who have attempted at least two hundred and
fifty pull up jumpers, either threes or twos. Tatum ranks sixty fifth out
of seventy one in effective field goal percentage on that. Looks that's just something
to monitor if he runs hot and cold here Again, I just don't think
it's something that ails them in this series, and Boston's depth, just looking
at their top seven guys is just by far and away better than Atlanta's.
And so when you ask a cliche question of what happens for Atlanta to win
this series, I don't know what it is that Atlanta would do that spurs
the victory. I'm not saying it would be impossible, but I would view
this as more of a okay, the Celtics loss. That's not to disrespect
the Hawks. I have a problem with their shot profile. Still, I
also can't bring myself to care. They were fourth and point score per possession
after the trade deadline, So, like, the offense is clearly going to
work. But like Derek White, I know, and I know you just
went up against Miami, which is historically defended Trey Young really well Derek White
is and then having Tatum and then also Brown, but also Mark is smart.
Like the options to go after Tray Young, however aggressive or conservative you
want to be, or seemingly endless I think too, sort of from a
roster building perspective for the Hawks. And maybe this is a little unfair,
but like, this is not a de Jontay Murray series because I don't think
he's big enough to really bother Brown or Tatum, and so this big defensive
upgrade that you give up so much to get, like this ain't this ain't
the series for it. Like if you're going against I'm trying to even think
of if you're in the West, just hypothetically, he's the first guy that
came to mind. We gotta go guard John Moran, Okay Dejanta Murray.
Perfect, glad we got glad we have you. But it's like if it's
Marcus Smart and Derek White, Dejontay Murray is just not going to be able
to make the impact that you know he otherwise could against different positions, like
if your point guard as your primary score, Like if you're going against Trey
Young, Dejanta Murray would be awesome to have on your team, but he's
on his team, and this just he doesn't have the ability I don't think
to consistently contend with the size of Brown and particularly Tatum, who I think
we'll just shoot over the top of him. If that's assume. Hunter will
probably guard Tatum, and I think Tatum will be able to get by him
because low key Hunter has not been very good at keeping guys in front of
him this year. So yeah, it's just just something that struck me as
I was looking at this is man that's too bad because I think the Dejante
Murray acquisition made a decent amount of sense. They probably gave up too much
to do it, but this really, he's just I don't think he can
be the kind of factor that you want someone like him to be in this
particular series. It's interesting. I don't really think they gave up too much
for De john Day Murray, as long as they were the wrong team to
pay that price at that maybe, like the Wolves gave up too much of
Rudy Gobert. I don't care what team you were. My last question on
this and I kind of touched upon this, but I don't know where we
landed. Is this a dual big series for Boston or do you expect to
see more of the one big stuff? I would I would be surprised because
I don't think you need a big necessarily to guard John Collins. You could
probably get away. Does Grant Williams count as a big for example? Like,
I guess me six five or six six? Yeah, I figger than
me. You know what if? Is it bad that My answer is like
it doesn't really matter. I think. I think probably if I'm Boston,
I am trying to go with one big more often than not, just because
I want to preserve Robert Williams for a series where I'm actually gonna need him.
And I think the only way that Atlanta can really counter that is if
they really do dominate the glass against Boston. Who's been when it's just Horford
on the floor. They have an excellent defensive rebounding rate. So Atlanta would
need to really be I guess, dominating the glass for Boston to maybe revaluate
and say, okay, like we need to go the RW three Horford heavy
minutes Throughoute. A lot depends on capella next series, The Knicks versus the
Cleveland Cavaliers. You know, I'm gonna have a lot of thoughts on this,
but I'm hoping that you have a lot of thoughts too. Yeah,
We've talked about it a few times. I don't know how much has changed
in my thinking. Basically, I think the Randall uncertainty is a big factor,
mixed with the concerns about how the Knicks can stop Mitchell and Garland.
You know, a high and pick and roll sets I feel like we're going
to come back to this a lot. But if Mitchell Robinson's in a drop,
I mean, so it's a little scary because Garland shot thirty nine point
one percent on pull up threes and Mitchell shot thirty nine point two percent,
and both of them were pretty high volume and pull up three point shooters,
so that you know, again we can get down to like, well,
let's make or miss, and those guys might just miss those shots. But
I think based on the way that the Knicks problem we will defend those two
guys, it could get problematic pretty quickly. So, uh, you know,
this is again we're gonna have to go through how do the Knicks?
What does a Knicks win look like? Because my default is that the Cavs
have pretty distinct advantages, even before talking about well what what version of Randall
are we going to get in this series? And as we're recording this,
we don't totally know his status. He's dealing with that left ankle sprain.
I might guess would be that he just plays because I believes that one ankle
is more than enough to win. And also Julius Randall really just wants to
play like that's a guy who's pride himself on being an iron man, someone
who I think in retrospect I probably should have put him on an All NBA
team over Ranthony Davis because the minutes gap I got actually got a lot of
ship for that when we did it. Surprisingly, like in my DMS and
friend of the podcast Andrew Claudio from Micks Film School texting me about it,
he was mostly going that a Knicks supporter was bothered that a Knicks player didn't
get some of them weren't Nick supporters that reach out to me though, and
saying that I was, I should not have been as flexible with my like
back of the ballot third team stuff want with it. Nick's Film School loves
you more than me now though, because you had Randall on an All NBA
team and you pick quickly to win six Man of the Year. So you
know, I go for the big markets. That's all I care about.
But what I'm interested to see So you mentioned that I actually wanna talk about
something you said the Robinson in a drop. I'm wondering if you can,
especially post ankle injury, do you just say Julius Randall's on Jared Allen and
then you have Mitchell Robinson on Evan Mobley and that's gonna like change the way
you might defend, or then it's well the cas will just try and put
Julius Randall in the screening action. Then I just think that that's still maybe
a little bit easier because Jared Allen is more dynamic than I think most I
don't know how to frame this in like a respectful but if you're not watching
the Calves on a regular basis or semi regular basis, I don't think you
understand how dynamic Jared Allen could be on offense. Evan Mobley is far more
dynamic than Jared Allen is on offense. But I do think that's a fair
question. What's interesting is I think the Knicks. The Knicks could be more
aggressive in their defensive coverage because they have emmanual Quickly Josh Hart, Quentin Grimes.
However, that brings you in an interesting is it a dilemma pickle to
where well, is this not an RJ. Barrett series? Then, but
then you kind of need it to be an RJ. Barrett series if if
Randall isn't able to create at the same level. And this is before I
throw it back to you is one of my biggest questions what does this Knicks
offense look like? Because I think a lot of their success is just like
there's been the we know about the Iso Brunson and Randall's stuff, but they
also have like a nice two man chemistry where they can punish people. Where
if Julius Randall's gonna screen and get the ball, he can attack a mismatch,
he can put the defense in rotation. He might not be able to
do that against the Calves because of one his ankle. I don't even know
the Calves could if they wanted to, And I don't know if they'll do
this, but like you could just say, well, we'll dare the Knicks
to do this, and we'll just put Evan Mobley on Jayalen Brunson. And
so if you want to get them to screening, just have Evan mobile switch
on the Julius Randall or he's playing Julius Randall straight up anyway. And even
if you're fully healthy, Julius Randall, you might be stronger than him,
but are you gonna You're not gonna have the same level of defensive rotation put
in. And I think Julius Randalls has gotten better at making the pass in
those situations. But I'm very interested to see how Cleveland is able to in
a playoff series because there was all these weirdo regular season returns this year.
What do they do to New York's base offense? And I think that they
are built to sort of muck it up, even though in theory and I
think they've both been better defensively than people would have expected. You can try
and target Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell and at them involved, but the Calves
just have the personnel to where even if carros La virture three and I'm sure
we'll get into the Calves three spot, Like, I just don't know how
concerning that is. And so I think that any of your thoughts on that,
but also just like where do you land on this being or not being
an RJ Barrett series? Yeah, first, I'd take the first the second
thing. First, I think, all you want it to be an r
J Barrett series, But first of all, you've been You were quicker to
appreciate carousel Vert improving as a defender than I was, and so that is
something we should mention. I still think if you're the Knicks. You would
hope it's an R. J. Barrett series because if he's in the game,
probably he's going at that three spot that we've said the Cavs needed to
upgrade all year, and that you know LeVert can't handle Barrett for example,
like just depending you know, Barrett might play some four two. I don't
know, but it doesn't feel like there's anything that Barrett would give the Knicks
that is going to meaningfully change how they play offense. Because what I think
they want to do and what they should try to do, and you alluded
to it, is you're gonna want to attack both of Cleveland small guards.
The Knicks were third in the league and drives per game. I don't think
you change that fundamental aspect of your offense. You're gonna want to try to
get in the paint. But this is going to feel like a driving Kick
series to me because as as if, if it is true, I think,
and it is relatively speaking, that Garland and Mitchell are the guys,
you know, the weak links, so to speak, the guys you want
to go at, if for no other reason than to tire them out,
You're just going to run into the best four or five back line defensive twosome
in the league in Mobile and Allen, assuming they're in and around the lane.
As great as Brunson is, it's a lot to ask him to,
you know, get get into his bag in the paint, in his you
know, midpost, even with a hand injury. Still too Yeah, I
mean we're saying all this, and he had forty eight against the Calves,
right, so, like, certainly there's a it can't happen. I just
think over a series, you're not going to make a lot of Hay driving
all the way to the basket against Cleveland just because of the length and the
skill of their two best defenders. So it feels like a driving kick,
and that maybe even is another reason this isn't a Barrett series unless you're getting
drive kick drive and you're playing Oklahoma City basketball. That's that's one way maybe
to scramble the Calves. But those two are still mobile, They're still mobile.
Like, I just don't know that you're going to get Cleveland scrambled in
such a way where Mobile and Alan can't recover. So, I mean,
I think Mobile is the X factor of the series because he can either He
could probably credibly guard Brunson in space if he had to, and then if
he's involved in screens, I feel great about him trying to handle Julius Randall,
especially if Randall's mobility is not where it needs to be. So I
think, yeah, it's got to be a driving kick series, and the
Knicks may just have to make threes because I don't think they can win this
close to the basket. And that might be that would be the reason why
this isn't an RJ. Barrett series, just because like he has not shot
the three ball consistently at all this year, and his bread and butter is
going to be not even necessarily finishing well once he gets into the paint,
but drawing fouls and so like the calves are just built to maybe neutralize that
part of his game. And look so much without knowing what Randall looks like,
I feel like I'm talking in circles. I do think what might bode
well for at least him, is he could pick him pop like we've seen
these willing three point shooter does some of them? Are they gonna need to
be pull up so they're gonna be creative for himself, sure, but like
he could screen and just pop and if they're gonna give they might not give
him that shot because Evan Mobley can fucking teleport and contest those books as well.
But that's something that they could use. I am, however, interested
in the and we know if Randall's healthy, he'll play like forty nine or
forty eight minutes a game, but like, let's just let's just say he's
averaging forty or forty two. I'm wondering if the Knicks can go, and
a lot of it will depend on what Cleveland is running. Is this a
I love will we top in? But is this a situation where it's,
well, no, we're gonna downsize and to make this inn RJ. Barrett
series, we go with the RJ. Barrett at the four lineups because those
are gonna be better equipped to not just drive and kick, but to actually
open up driving lanes for Barrett himself. The Knicks are a plus fifteen points
per one hundred possessions with Barrett at the four this year. Very small sample
size, very small sample size. But I'm just wondering if that's that's not
gonna win you this series? But is that a way, especially if Julie's
Randall can't go for forty forty two minutes a game and you need to all
of a sudden, oh he's at thirty eight, Like I'm wondering if they
can go that route or is Cleveland just even when they go one big sort
of just so demoralizingly enormous that just having Isaiah Hartenstein without an Obi Topping you
want because I don't even know, like what is Obi Topping really gonna give
you on offense, though I would I would pivot to the RJ. Barrett
at the four. Stuff that's me loving. I would probably play Topping at
the five and say fuck defense, like we're just gonna try in. Because
the other thing about these teams they don't play. When they get like they
will look to run, and if I Manuel quickly is on the floor,
they will look to run. But like the Cavs and the Knicks, when
they get into their bass offenses, like they're really running the shot clock down,
their average offensive possession time is is pretty late into the shot clock.
If you can get a shot of a adrenaline in any way, that ends
up being for both teams just a huge difference in this series. Yeah,
I think if you downsize as the Knicks. I think it potentially takes away
one of the one of the possible routes where you stay really competitive in this
series, and that's offensive rebounds and putbacks, because if you're looking at half
court offenses, you know the Knicks. Much has been made of the Knicks
offense this year, and rightfully so it's been a great offense. The Cavs
are seventh, so it's not like this is some massive advantage, and the
Caves actually were just, by the smallest possible margin, more efficient in half
court chances. But the Knicks half court offense really depends on offensive rebounds and
second chances. So if you shrink a little bit, most of that's Robinson.
But if you if you go smaller, I think that cuts into what
might be a small advantage for the Knicks. And then, just to get
back to what you're saying about Topping and Barrett, I think you probably just
keep which you probably try on both if you do go smaller. But I
think if Topping, you know, runs hot on a few threes, then
he gets to play. And if Barrett makes a couple of second side drives
and that creates good opportunities, then he gets to play. I think you
have to be very flexible if you're Tom Thibodeau, because that's fun to say,
right, very which, by the way, he's yeah, I know,
that's unfair. That's not unfair. It used to be. It's not
fair anymore. It's lots fair than ever was. But could we see him
revert to his like, wait in, I'm sorry, I didn't mean that's
all. That's all. I just think I just wanted to point out the
potential for the Knicks to do well on the offensive boards, and that's just
another way they could prop up an offense that has been really good, but
uh, you know, isn't so much better than Cleveland's that I'm concerned.
If I'm the Calves about you know, winning a winning a scoring contest,
I will say, if you you go smaller, though, doesn't it make
you better equipped to defend the guards? And like, if you're gonna go
smaller again someone like the primary line up, if you're better equipped to defend
Don and Mitchell and Darius Garland then though two and so the trade off is
all right, we're giving up stuff on the glass, Like maybe we're able
to force the Calves offense into more difficult decisions because we're playing two grimes quickly
and heart at the same time. Yeah, I mean, usually you're giving
up defense by going smaller, but in this particular case, I take your
point like you you might and really then also that's going to open your offense
up a little bit more if you're if you're the Knicks, and you shrink,
you shrink your positions a little. Yeah. I don't have a lot
else to say. You want to make your pick here. I was just
gonna ask you about the how does the Isaaco Coro injury if he's not full
strength, or like, I mean, even just the Cleveland's three spot,
because we only mentioned at cursory, how does an impact your view of this
series at all? It comes down to I think a lot of people worried
they wouldn't get the defense necessary out of that spot. Actually, you don't
think that's the issue. It's okay, Caroslvert shooting really well from three thirty
nine percent on catching shoots also like at forty five percent or something ridiculous.
Since the trade deadline, Isaaco Coro has shot above forty percent from three for
more than half the season when healthy, and they do have Danny Green he
had COVID for a while, so he didn't play a ton with the Calves.
But he's hitting his threes, and so there's three, and there's four
questions, like Dean Wage is floating around out there. Will he hit his
threes? Those were pulled back? Will Danny Green be able to defend well
enough to play a role because we know he'll hit his threes? And then
does the shooting for Lavert and a Coro, assuming he's able to play,
does that translate into the postseason? And I'm just how big of a variable
is that actual will leave for Cleveland. I think o'korro would probably be the
guy on Brunson, right, Like, if if you're if you're drawing it
up for Cleveland because you don't want Garland on, I mean you don't want
maybe Mitchell, but I think i'd rather have Mitchell, you know, be
off the ball a little bit more and gets to rest. So that's a
factor. I do think. You know, as I said earlier, Leavert
has been better defensively and is clearly the best offensive player of Cleveland's options at
the three. I think a Koro two, while he would be the guy
you'd want out there for defensive purposes. I still think he's someone that the
Knicks, if they're looking to cheat a little bit, he's the guy they're
leaving in the corner and just saying, if you're gonna we're gonna not be
anywhere in your neighborhood in the first quarter. More power too, if you
want to hit, if you want to take five threes and make like three
of them, like, good luck Cavs if that's if that's how you want
to play offense. But so so in the playoffs, a guy like that
always his flaws always show up more because teams can just be relentless about forcing
someone to do the thing they're bad at. And that's why guys that are
bad at specific things to you know, great enough extent just don't get to
play very much. So, uh, you know, even though Koro has
had good stretches, I think he might give the Knicks and out that unless
he's just locking Brunson down, might not be worth it, you know,
in the balance. Can I just say two quick things that fascinate me about
this series? Their macros Cleveland has the best defense and we'll have the best
defense in the league, but they also have I'm sorry. They have the
best offense in the league when going up against top ten defenses, and like
that's important because the Knicks defense is not this like killer, but that's how
good the Calv's offense is translated to, even if it doesn't always necessarily look
pretty. The Knicks, though, on the other hand, they have the
second best defense in the league when going up against top ten offenses, and
so I just find that matchup very interesting. I don't know what to do
with that. That's it. That is interesting. I don't know what means.
I mean, it would seem to say that the Knicks have a better
chance than we're giving them credit for. What's your prediction for Knicks Calves.
I'm gonna go Calves in six, and that has mostly to do with uh,
maybe Randall will be healthy or you know, more healthy than I think
is likely. But it would be closer to five than seven for sure,
if I had to go one way or the other. I'm gonna go Calves
in seven because I think that the Knicks, if they're willing to, if
they're going to run the lineups that I think they will. I really do
think that they're built to sort of just throw wrinkles into the Calves offense from
a defensive perspective more than maybe we're talking about the moment. I could end
up being wildly wrong there, though. I think if Randall was totally healthy,
I could be talked into seven. I just I just think that's that
variable kind of nudges me down a little bit. We did not predict the
Hawks Celtics series. Do you want to provide a Hawks Celtics prediction? Very
quickly we just skipped right over that. What does that? What does that
say about? How how much of a toss up we think it is.
I'll just go, I'll just cowardly go Celtics in five. I'll go,
I'll take the cowspick Celtics in fact. Also, it's Trey Young has to
have one nuclear I think right, you'd think the next playoff series on our
docket is one that is near and dear to your heart. The Kings versus
the Warriors. What do you do? I'm sure you're thinking about lots of
the last series with my series. This is your series. Yeah, I
think the Warriors. So my opinion based on a couple of things. One
is uncertain, one is pretty certain. The uncertainty is I believe the Warriors
are better than they've shown for most of this season, and factor in that
they had the best net rating in the Western Conference after the All Star Break.
A lot of that has to do with smoke in Portland by like a
thousand points on the last day of the season. But they're fifteen and nine.
They had stretches where they really did look, you know, championship ish
caliber. So I think the Warriors are better than your typical sixth seed hot
take and so, but I'm not one hundred percent sure about that because they've
laid massive eggs all year at bad time. The other thing is, I
don't think the King's defense is good enough to do anything against the Warriors offense.
And so that's really where that's where I've just I don't know. I
would love it if you had not to put ridiculous pressure on you, But
hey, Dan, make the case for the King's defense being good enough to
bother the Warriors, I just don't. I don't see it. So that's
that's the ten thousand foot view of it. I do think I will say
upfront that I think Demannas Sabonis is perhaps the most pivotal player in this series
because he is the driver of this offense that was the best in the league
there. I think it was Zach kram At the ringer did look at his
handoffs, and the Kings have run like just an obscenely greater number of handoffs
than any other team. Like Sabonis as the handoff guy has run more handoffs
than any team generally speaking. So like he's vital to the offense. I
think he's just a walking bullseye for on defense for the Warriors because he can't
guard in space, he can't defend the rim, you can't switch with him
if you trap with him. The Warriors have seen that a trillion times and
they get it to Draymond Green going downhill in a four month Like, there's
just I don't know what you do with Sabonis defensively, And I think the
Warriors aren't a pick and roll heavy team necessarily, but they do set a
billion ball screens, even if it's just for handoffs. You know, you
can imagine Looney and Draymond Green at the top just screening Curry's guy, and
if the other big is in a drop or just not anywhere near the play,
it's an open three or it's a drive and it's a pocket pass for
It's just like, I don't know what you do with Sabonis defensively, and
you can't take him off the floor because he's so vital to the King's offense.
So that's my starting point is I just Sabonis matters a lot, and
that's both good and bad. What's interesting, this isn't necessarily the case for
the Kings to win, but they have the ninth best defense when they play
on the road. Did you know that? I did not know that.
I know that they're weirdly bad at home, just generally, like which you
wouldn't expect from a team that like a younger team with less experience. It
just gets up for scoring a bunch of points. But yeah, good,
good point, good point. What I think what actually benefits them the most
might hurt them against the Warriors, and you're eady messes with these two teams,
by the way, they just don't run a ton of pick and rolls.
Like it's just when people complain about the NBA being overly homogeneous, these
two teams would be. I think that that's one oversimplifying or overstating how similar
everything is. But like these two teams just do not run the typical NBA
offenses, and all that off ball movement is wild. The Kings have done
generally a really good job. They're only two or three teams have been better
of forcing opponents to go deeper into the shot clock on offense. A lot
of that is because the Kings are allowed to get their defense set after scoring.
It allows them to limit transition opportunities. They don't foul a lot.
The Warriors might make some of that. You know, if the Warriors defense
really turns it on, they're gonna make that a lot harder. But it
also doesn't necessarily benefit you. If you forced the Warriors to go deep into
the shot clock because of all of their own off ball movement, they might
just create chaos and fine seams when there's only four seconds left, and that's
just they're going to be content to do that. Or there's just the Steph
Curry bell out ISO option. So I don't I hate that. I think
not that. I think there's gonna be a quick series because I think a
lot of people believe the King's offense won't translate to the playoffs. I don't
buy it. I know that you can throw Draymond on Sabonis. But you
have all these other guys on the Kings who can work with the ball in
their hands, and darn Fox and Kevin Herder who are also about and Harrison
Barnes and Keeganbury who are also, by the way, really comfortable moving without
the ball right now, And so you're gonna really counter is my question?
Is my biggest question for the series. Are the Kings athletic enough to handle
the Warrior's own off ball movement? I think the same question can apply to
the Warriors. With the Kings, they do have Andrew Wiggins coming back,
he hasn't played in once. Kavan Ludi is one of the most matchup proof
bigs in the league. How does that really hold up? Though again,
it's like all the Kings is off ball movement, this is not This is
not the Celtics for instance, And then yeah, okay you have Gary Payton
the second but like, are you so are you playing Clay Thompson a ton
or is this not a Jordan Pool series? Or how much is Dante DiVincenzo
playing. I again, I the Warriors on paper are tough matchup for the
Kings, but I do think that Sacramento is going to cause their defense just
as many problems as Golden States offense is going to cause for a Sacramento.
I think there's a good chance the Kings have at least a couple games where
offensively the Warriors just can't quite stay disciplined enough or keep up enough. I
could, I could. If one of those games comes in the first two
in Sacramento, then I think I think the Warriors will maybe have a real
series on their hands. I do think though that if you are so you
mentioned Looney, and Looney I agree, Like his track record is just like
it is not an advantage to get him switched onto a small or to have
him move in space. He's just way better at that than he looks like
he should be, and that most bigs are. He's kind of He hasn't
been quite as good at that this year. I think he has slipped a
little bit. But if you're the Kings, and what happens is you expose
that a little all you're doing is getting Draymond Green at center with four shooters
or four wings around him, and I don't feel like that's ever been a
win for any opposing team. When you get Draymond at the five lineups.
So you know, the way I see the King's succeeding has a lot to
do with Sabonis bullying, you know, inside some if they get switches anytime
he has, So Joe Verrey for a Golden state of mind does really good
Warriors breakdowns with film and stuff, and the Kings run these wedge actions,
which is just like a diagonal screen from a block to the opposite elbow that
gets Sabonis oftentimes in post position, either switched with a little guy on him
or with a little bit of a time advantage because the big is catching up.
So that's a way for Sabonis to maybe pile up some fouls, get
to the line, finish inside. But there's just there's just not a lot
you can do. If you're the Kings, you're not going to confuse the
Warriors off the ball, especially if you have say Devincenzo Wiggins pay out there.
They're just gonna switch everything one to four. So running around and all
this other stuff, you know, off ball action, I think is is
probably going to be mostly unsuccessful because the Warriors do have the personnel to just
just not really be bothered by that because they don't have to chase anybody.
They just point and switch that, you know. So I guess I'm trying
to think of other ways for the Kings to succeed here. It's just it's
just hard to It's I'm sorry, it's just hard to see. I feel
like it's lame to be so pro Warriors in this series because that that is
the take that everybody has. The Warriors are our favorites in the betting markets,
and I just I just think that the fundamental failures of the Kings to
defend the pick and roll. The Warriors don't do it a lot, but
just to get to the point, their seventh worst in points allowed per possession
of the pick and roll ball handler, and the bottom four are Houston,
Detroit, Charlotte, San Antonio, so basically they're third worst among actual NBA
teams. The Warriors can go to that if they're not having success off the
ball, because they've done that and past the series, and the Curry and
Draymond pick and roll has just historically been pretty unstoppable. So I don't know,
the Kings have to run hot from three. That's going to be the
case for every underdog that we talk about and they have to just hope that,
you know, maybe maybe maybe they can generate you know, enough confusion
in the handoff game and the Warriors watch it and commit a bunch of turnovers
and fouls like that. That's how it has to go. For me.
I think, well, here's the other thing, and I don't know how
much my two questions to make a case for the Kings here and look,
I also could see this series just being like, I know, the Warriors
have a higher seiling defensively, this just might be a shootout, every shootout,
every single night. One. There has to be some level of concern
about what does Andrew Wiggins look like after coming back and by see so much
time. I'm glad that he's able mentally to come back to a place and
play, ever dealing with the stuff with his dad, Like what is he
just gonna look like because he hasn't had like the best season overall. No,
he wasn't good when he came back from that initial injury before he went
out, So yeah, that's totally valid question. The second one is how
much does the Warriors road splits this season matter? So for the season twenty
eighth on defense away from Chase Enter. Now they improved to a whopping twenty
second after the All Star break when they were four and seven on the road,
which is like hitting a home run for them relative to many games.
Is does that not actually matter? Because one the games are going to be
spaced out more and too your game planning for the same opponent over and over.
So do you ascribe any value to the warriors shitty road splits this year?
Yeah? You have to, because so this goes all the way back
to my what I the very first thought I had about this series is I
think the Warriors are better than what they've shown. And that extends specifically to
how terrible they've been on the road. And I've you know, there are
all these numbers that show, well, they found more, they turn it
over more, they don't shoot well, opponents shoot really well on the It's
just everything goes wrong on the road. And so I ultimately don't know what
to ascribe those crazy splits to other than the Warriors kind of just didn't bring
it on the road. And that's such a hacky, like old school coach
thing to say. But if you watch the games, they just their intensity
was lower, their attention to detail, was worse. They threw the ball
over the gym like it's just And so I think in a playoff series where
now they're fully engaged, I just think they're going to be better on the
road. I have no statistics to back that up. I just think based
on the personnel and the talent and the history and the stakes now, I
think they'll just be better. And I don't know that that means they'll be
just as good on the road as at home. But they're not going to
be like a bottom ten road team. I can't. I can't imagine.
Plus the road quote unquote, by the way, is like an hour and
ten minute drive or maybe a little more than that. Yeah, but this
isn't like Lakers Clippers ship because that is especially at Game one, like there's
not gonna be a blue or yellow anything in sight. And I don't know
that's gonna be interesting. I do know. I mean, the Kings fans
are gonna show up. It's gonna be the loudest playoff arena in the league,
without question. I've kind of already penciled in Game one as a loss
for the Warriors. I just can't it. Well, tell you, let's
say this if Game one is a Warriors win. I'm starting to think sweep
because the Kings have got to the Kings have got to get the Kings.
I think the Kings need both of these games. But if they if they
lose Game one, man, I mean, the snowball's already rolling down the
hill at that point. I the other thing too. But my final question
on this is we talk a lot about the variability in Boston's offense. There's
that to the they don't generate rim pressure. The Kings are actually okay at
like limiting looks around the rim protection is bad, but like they can keep
teams away from there. Their base defense is pretty good at that. And
so just like, what's to say that the Warriors don't go through one of
those spurts. I mean, Clay Thompson is so good and stuff. Curry
is so good. But like, if you're gonna play Jordan Pool, who's
been better of late, but he's still that is hard. He's Jordan Pool.
Yeah, Jordan Pool has always got a one for nine in him that
they he's always got that. What are you going in? Kings Warriors.
I'm gonna I'm gonna go Kings. I'm sorry almost slipped there. I'm gonna
say eight Warriors in I'll I'll go Warriors in six, and it's closer to
five. I'm gonna go Warriors in seven. And I hope that Kings fans
don't take that as design of disrespect. I really do believe in the offense.
I just and I think that the defense has like the skeleton of something
that is better than the numbers show. But it's just the Warriors the first
round matchup are so uniquely built to dice them up, maybe earlier in the
shot clock, or just survive on those late shot clock looks. I'm not
sure how much it's gonna matter. And the other thing that worries me is
so much of their their best defense in theory, is gonna come after they
make shots. At the other end, the Warriors, I think, are
gonna make that tougher on them, where their offense might not be as efficient
on a night tonight basis. Yeah, yeah, Grizzlies, How are you
feeling about this series? How are you feeling about this series? I feel
like anytime we talk about the Grizzlies, we got we got a default to
you. Unless you need me to vamp for a second. Here, But
so I'll give I'll give the nutshell and then I'll throw it to you because
I'd love to hear you talk about the Grizzlies. So based on the version
of the of these two teams as they exist right now, I feel like
this is kind of a coin flip, which is not how you normally feel
in a two seven matchup. Just some numbers. The Lakers are sixteen and
seven plus five point nine net ratings since the All Star Break, fourteenth on
offense, second on defense. The Grizzlies are sixteen and nine plus four point
seven, eleventh on offense, eighth on defense since the All Star break.
So that's, you know, forget the full season stuff, because the Grizzlies
had Steven Adams and Brandon and Clark for a while, Like they just they're
a different team right now. You could make the case the Lakers are better
today right now based on the numbers for the last two months. Basically,
I think they're These two teams are really close, and to me, I
could see that I'm gonna say this series is going seven. I won't say
who I'm gonna pick until the end, but I am ready for you to
say Lakers in like four and just enjoy it. But so I start,
I've started most of these. I want you to start with your with your
let me ask you a question. Who's the most important player in this series
in your mind? On either team? Oh Man, on either team,
I think it's Lebron James, which is stupid, But just like so,
the Lakers do get out and transition a ton. No one gets out and
transition more than the Grizzlies. So are you, as Lebron, gonna be
able to handle playing fast on offense while playing fast on defense? How does
your body hold up when you're going up against Dylan Brooks? And hey,
this is one of my concerns for the series. You mentioned what the Lakers
defense has been. That absolutely it's and they have just monsters. Jared Vanderbilt
now can defend from the point of the attack. This team is not built
to defend both John Moran and Desmond Baine. Who are you who's your primary
defender for John Morant? And if it's it's not gonna be Anthy Davis,
if it's Jared Vanderbilt, if he's on Desmond Bane or John Morant, because
those are the two guys you worry about the most. You probably have an
issue, and so like you have Dennis Shrewder, Troy Brown Junior, Austin
Reeves, they've been more inclined to Dennis Shrewd spends a lot of time on
tough assignments just by virtue of his position. I think it'll be Shrewder by
virtue of his position. But you still have that second guys to trickle down.
Are you just throwing Vanderbilt on that Shrewder's not going to be on the
court for thirty eight minutes a game, and if he is, holy shit,
so is Lebron just gonna be a little bit more exhausted on defense?
And if you try and stick him on you know, Xavier Tillman, how
many minute or Santi Aldama, what is that actually doing for him? Is
he gonna have to go up against Jared Jackson Junior at some point? Is
he gonna have to go up against a Desmond Baane. I don't know.
I'm not saying that. That's my least concern about what's Lebron doing on defense,
But the Lakers defense as a whole, I don't think they're built to
defend both John Morant and Desmond Baine because those two can, especially Desmond Baine,
can subsist operating from the perimeter. And so even if ad is able
to just lock down the pane, and you know Jared Vanderbilt chasing around one
of them, I just don't know if you're built to stop them. I
will also say I don't know how many Luke Knar minutes they can get away
with. He really did help Memphis's half court offense. The Grizzlies are tenth
in three point a tenth right since the trade deadline, and they're half court
offense is eleventh, while they rank in the bottom five of offensive rebounding percentage
because they didn't have Brandon Clark or Steven Adams, and a lot of that
is Luke Nard opens things up. Dylan Brooks has been hitting threes. I
don't expect that to continue. But you also have the Jaren Jackson Jr.
You talked about him as a Most Improved Player, a candidate because of his
offense, not just for what he does on defense. And then Desmond Bane
was third I think on my most improved player ballot. So their half court
offense might be better built to go after the Lakers than a lot of people
who are concerned about memphisis half court offense, where I feel like a lot
of the thoughts were preconceived notions prior to the trade deadline. And look,
a lot of that half court offense success came without John Morant as well,
and so now you're more at full strength. I feel better about the Grizzlies
in this series than I thought, in part because the Lakers feel really good
at making you lose faith in them just when you might gain it. And
like whatever they did against the Timberwolves in the playing game was, yes,
they won. It was a perfect example. They didn't have Jade McDaniels,
they didn't never really Gobert. You still made your offense look like a fucking
slog during that game. And they have their own shooting variants to contend with.
I will say they've been middle of the middle of the road, like
around fifteenth or so in catch and shoot efficiency and pull up efficiency. That
doesn't make you feel all that since the trade deadline. Excuse me, that
doesn't make you feel all that good against this Grizzlies defense. Yeah, I
think so. I think this is a series that at the outset of Game
one, I will I'm gonna feel better about the Lakers talent and schemes and
whatever. I'm not convinced that Lebron and Davis will be able to hold up
over what I think will be a long and difficult series, and so I'm
weighing that against the Grizzlies are out of options if Jaren Jackson Junior is not
on the floor, I think specifically defensively, and his foul problems, while
improved, are still real and he is going to be tasked with serious work
in this series because he's gonna have to deal with Anthony Davis, because he
probably will even see time on Lebron James. So I think the combination of
those two things are just they introduce so much variability into this series because if
Davis misses a game, well then it's just I don't see how the Lakers
win a game if Jackson gets three fouls in the first quarter, Like,
that's just not a game Memphis can win. I don't think, because they
lose their only big guy that can score, they lose the just the absolute
key to their defense and they have I mean, they're so thin behind Jackson.
I mean, Xavier Tillman is going to play a fair amount santi Aldama.
I like, I think we both like him offensively. I just don't
think you just can't do much if he is in a significant defensive role,
especially protecting the room against size against bulk against like you know, steam roll
drives from Lebron like that kind of stuff. So I just if I'm the
Lakers at least at the outset of the series, I just I think there's
real ways for them to specifically involve Jackson in every possible action which you wouldn't
normally do against a really great defender, whether that's Davis posting up, which
you know almost never happens, however it needs to, you know, Davis
getting on the offensive boards a ton, because Memphis, you know, you
mentioned their offensive rebounding sucks. They're not good on the defensive glass either.
They're twenty first in defensive rebound rates since the All Star Break, So I
think the Lakers can really pound them in there, maybe pick up a couple
of fouls on Jackson that way. So I really like the Lakers at the
beginning of this series. And if you told me that James and Davis would
stay healthy and not wear down and not get tired and or get hurt,
then I would pick the Lakers, but I because I have so many concerns
about the lack of front court depth for Memphis. I just don't think it's
likely that James and Davis both make it all the way through this unscathed.
So I know that's kind of a cop out because injuries affects every series,
but it is a little different talking about out this particular Lakers team with a
thirty eight year old, you know, more mileage than anybody ever being so
critical, and a guy who you think he's dead every time he falls down
and has to leave the floor. So it's a it's a little cop outy,
but not totally I feel okay standing on that as a big issue.
What what do you think? What do you think John Morant is going to
do in this series? Like I obviously because I feel like we just aren't.
We haven't like talked about John Morant the basketball player all that much the
last half of the season and specifically looking at this playoff series, because isn't
there a scenario where he just the Lakers can't stay in front of him and
just he's too athletic for even a defense as good as Los Angeles is in
transition. Yes, when you look at sort of if they're in the half
court, I do wonder if he'll struggle to you know, get into the
pain, like you know, into float to range into the pain. And
even if he gets there, you're gonna have to deal with Anthony Davis or
Jared Vanderbilt presumably, And so like the Lakers have had since the trade deadline
the fifth best defense on short mid range jumpers, they're around the top ten,
and opponent field goal percentage allowed at the rim. And John Moran in
the games that he played after the trade deadline was sub twenty three percent from
three and his shooting splits have actually been all over the place this season,
his free throw shooting, and so I could see this. I could see
him brutalizing them. I could also see this being not a great John Morant
series in it coming down to does Memphis have enough offensive counters to survive?
Yeah? Yeah. One thing that's interesting, you're talking about transition versus half
court. You mentioned both these teams run a ton and are very good at
it. I think it's interesting to note that Memphis half court offense has actually
been better than the Lakers after the break. It's not like any crazy you
know, that doesn't shock me at all. Actually, the Memphis is fourteenth,
the Lakers are twentieth, So it's interest This maybe plays into my concerns
about out the Lakers best players holding up. Is Like, if this is
just an up and down series where both teams are trying as hard as possible
to up the pace and run because that's just what they're good at and where
they are most effective, I feel like that makes it harder for Lebron and
Davis to kind of hold up because memphisis you know, Memphis is thin,
but all their best players generally speaking, are young, are athletic, you
know, and Jackson's never retired because he plays twenty six minutes a game.
So I mean like that there's there's real ways for if this turns into a
transition series, for Memphis to be successful and in the half court, I
think, actually there's ways for Memphis to be more successful. So I feel
like I'm I'm tipping my pick. But do you have anything else to add,
any any other X factors or points to get to Yeah, that we've
seen so little of the Lakers Big three, and we haven't really talked about
Dangel Russell. It's clear that Darvin Ham doesn't necessarily trust him or Molik Beasley
based on how he's run some of his rotations and so how he plays lineups
could be a big deal. But the Lakers in the time, it's it's
fewer than three hundred possessions if they've a plus twenty three point four net rating
when Lebron, de'angelo, Russell, and Ad are on the court together,
and like half of those possessions have come with the starting line up where's Jared
Vanderbilt and Austin Reeves. And that's been an absolute killer. And if you
worry about part of the reason why I would argue LA's half court offense was
dogshit post break. Lebron miss his time, de'angelo Russell miss his time,
But the half court offense has actually only been about lee average when Lebron,
Ad and Russell played together. Again, there's not a huge sample size there,
but that is sort of the problem is like we don't have enough information
about the Lakers and their new pieces all playing together with Lebron. And I
also Rob Polinkus feels like he's getting too much credit for how he remade the
roster. I guess getting rid of Russ helps, But like when a lot
of the players that came over in a trade, even Jared Vanderbilt, like
not necessarily being on the floor and crunch time. I'm very curious to see
how Darvin Ham runs some of his rotations in this series, because that's going
to be critical and if you have anything to add to that. But my
other question for you was for each side, remove the top three players from
the equation who are the most important, like players for like non marquee names
for each side of this matchup. Yeah, so to hit the rotation thing
real quick. I don't think this is a D'Angelo Russell series because I don't
know where you can put him on defense, because you can't have him guard
Morant, you can't have him guard Bain. You can't hide him on Dylan
Brooks because he'll just be too physical and get off. That's the answer,
though, I guess you try and hide him on Aldama or Tailman, and
even Aldama's gonna put the ball on the floor against Dangel Russell. If yeah,
I just don't. I don't. And conversely, I do think so
someone like Luke Kennard, who you might be a little worried about in a
playoff series because of his defense. I think you probably can get away with
playing him against against the Lakers because it's easier to do that than even someone
like Beasley who's not a good defender. I think the Lakers just don't.
I think it's either the Grizzlies one, two and three, I think,
which is where you put Those guys are kind of just two or two quick,
too athletic to too physical like that. There's just it's easier for Memphis
to play. It's one way guys. I think maybe that'll change, but
that's how I view it right now. So outside of say Jackson, Baine
and Morant and then a D Lebron and is Russell, the guy you're saying
is the Lakers third guy. I mean, if you want to count him
among the non stars and say, I just don't think it's a series for
him. So for Memphis, I guess it's probably Brooks just because he's probably
gonna have to spend time on Lebron. He's probably gonna have to spend time
I don't know, guarding what you know, whoever, Morant should be guarding
so maybe that's like Austin Reeves, or maybe that's Shrewder, maybe that's Russell.
So he's gonna matter if he doesn't shoot them out of games and you
know, keeps things under control, like physicality wise. I think he's he's
a big guy to focus on. The Lakers are harder. I think,
I want to say Reeves just because he's really good and you know, may
have to be the guy that scale up. Assuming Brooks is not on him,
he may be the guy that just has a good matchup. But if
Bain is on him, I don't know if that's a huge advantage. Do
you have different guys in that regard. I do so Dylan Brooks to the
right ends for Memphis, but I also kind of think it's Santi Aldama.
Maybe it's Tayas Jones because imagine him going up against some of the Lakers starter
light units in the way that he has played this season. But if I'm
assuming Jaron Trst, who is gonna be in foul trouble and at least two
or three of these games, and that's gonna put a lot of pressure on
Aldama. The Grizzlies actually have a defensive rating in the seventy third percent tile
when Adams, Clark, and Jackson are all are all off the floor.
A lot some of that is some lucky opponent shooting from three. Opponents are
only shooting thirty five percent from three, but like that's not it's not thirty
two percent or twenty nine percent from three. So they're gonna need him,
I think defensively more like he can move around and stuff. Maybe it's Xavier
Tilman by default in that scenario, but I think it's for this series if
you want to kind of preserve the offensive versatility. I'd listened to Luke Kennard.
Two. Can he stay on the floor defensively for the Lakers? I
think it's Malik Beasley because can he make enough of his threes and then be
okay enough on defense to stay on the floor because he leads the Lakers and
three point attempts for thirty six minutes and they still just need that volume.
There's no one else on this roster who's just gonna come in and let it
fly like that. Like, yeah, Troy Brown Junior shooting forty plus percent
from three since the trade deadline, great coming on four attempts per game,
and like not even five for thirty six, I don't think or whatever it
is. And so I think to put pressure on Memphis's defense, like you're
they're probably gonna be better at cutting off your dribble penetration and maybe your foul
stuff or though maybe not, maybe they'll foul a ton that you're gonna need
to knock down some tough shots from the perimeter. And Deangel Russell, that
could be him, it could be Lebron. But I also think that you
need Molie Beasley to be in that role probably more than any other non marquee
name on the Lakers. Yeah, and that maybe you know, I didn't
think it was going to be much of a series for Russell and Beasley,
but it may be the case that both of these teams trust their backline defenses
so much that you are willing to just put guys out there that are not
going to guard because you need to what you're saying, you need to put
pressure on the defense. So yeah, it could be a series where you
know, a lot of one way offensive guys actually do play because the high
end defenders on both teams are so good. I don't view this as a
ruey hotchamoory series. I'll say that much. And I feel like the Lakers
kind of over like they're just trying to make Rudy Hotcha Moore happen a lot
of the time, and I don't necessarily watching him on wide open threes is
like kind of a struggle. Yeah, stop trying to make no. I
mean, yeah, I just don't know what key advantage he would give you
over this particular Memphis team. I think Brooks on him is just while we're
done here now. Basically Lakers Grizzlies prediction. I'm gonna go Grizzlies in seven.
Keeping in mind all I set up front about like how Jackson, Lebron,
and Davis are all just like, I don't know how much all of
them are going to play or how effective they'll be. So I had to
I had to cop out and go seven and take the higher seed. This
might surprise you. I'm going Grizzlies in five. Oh, I'm very surprised.
I don't think the reason unless do you think that the Lakers are gonna
play up to the level of their opponent and the stuff we've seen against what
was that when they went against like the G League team that Phoenix doesn't actually
have, but they went up against them and they turn that into a chore.
The Timberwolves game where they made their offense even look like a chore against
Yes, and like some of the Timberwolves played really well on that one,
but you got a terrible game from Matthew Edwards who was clearly injured, and
you still just couldn't like really pull away. I don't trust them, and
I don't trust their rotations. And I think even if you their best built
rotation has like six guys that you were just like okay, like this sort
of makes sense. Where are we going from here? And I think the
Grizzlies right now they're just they're still deeper. And I know that Zach Loo
has been big on well, how many playoff level trustworthy players do you have?
And he's always said, like Memphis has like four or five. They
still have four in Brooks, Baine, Jackson, and Morant. That's actually
a lot when you look at in comparison to Lakers who have lebron A d
and Vanderbilts and Clue. The Lakers don't even trust him, like he's gonnasively
And I think I trust some of the develop we've seen just because of Jackson
and Bain. I trust the Grizzlies half core Ofphens a bit more. I
wouldn't pick them against a bunch of other teams. I thought I was going
to go into this one like Lakers and seven or something. I can't talk
myself into it. Maybe I'm being up. There's an over correction there.
But this feels like a series where unless it's Jaren Jackson Junior fouls out twice
or there's like three games where he can't even crack twenty five minutes, this
just feels like it's gonna be Grizzlies in a landslide. To me, Yeah,
but blink twice. If if some hostile Memphis fans have you held hostage
right now and they're making you say this? Are you ready to move on
to our final series here, which is Suns Clippers. Yeah, let's do
it. Thoughts on this series, Okay, So Paul George Loond's large,
that's the key. All indications are that he's we haven't heard any indications he
will play. I would say it's safe to assume he will not, and
that if he does, he will be compromised. And so the Clippers in
all non Paul George lineups have a minus four point three net rating, so
you're starting behind eventually. I think home court advantage, we haven't even talked
about that at all in any of these series, is helpful for the Suns.
I think that the Clippers do not have a clear way to exploit DeAndre
Ayton in space, which would be something you might try to do if you
had the personnel to do that were you another team. And so while I
can see it's possible that Kauai could just be the best player on the floor,
even one that includes Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, I don't think he
can do that for a whole series. Maybe he'll prove me wrong and then
I would really change my predicted outcome. But I just think the Clippers just
I mean, it's like, how complicated do I need to get beyond saying
they don't have Paul George that's a huge deal. And the personnel around them
suddenly like, don't look all that capable of exploiting a center like you thought
that they would be when they put together this ridiculous you know, everybody is
a combo forward team that just you know, that just doesn't seem like that
that version of the Clippers is going to exist or be able to capitalize on
a big guy. So that's that's my zoomed out of view. Where do
you want to go? You want to talk about like what the Suns on
offense can do? What the you know what? Where? Where? Where
do we need to go next to flesh this out? I think a lot
of people are gonna focus on the lack of sample. With Kevin Durant and
the Son's best players, they have just when the top four guards on the
court, they have destroyed opponents. The defense with Kevin Duran and DeAndre Atan
has been fantastic during those minutes, and I think that you know, that
should hold up against the Clippers, who even whether they're gonna play big or
small like Dat and Durant frontline just absolutely positively works. What I what I
am curious about is and I don't know how much this actually matters, which
just like Kevin Durant is still new and so if you're gonna pull some of
the suns is like best players off the court and like leave him on,
which you're gonna do at some point You're gonna pull Devin Booker for instance,
and Kevin Durant are going to be staggard for some stratch of this game.
And yet you can always play him with CP three or eight. And but
the minutes when Kevin Durant is played without Devin Booker, the Phoenix Suns offense
ranks in the fifth percentile. The minutes when Kevin Durant plays without DeAndre Ayton,
the Sun's offense ranks in the sixth percentile. And so there are different
ways to look at it. And I think the biggest one is is Phoenix's
depth actually an issue in this series because you get into their four players,
you trust them all, but like who's their fifth? And I think Josh
Akoge and Tory Craig, like those are the clear answers. Can Josh Akoge
be played off the floor. He's gonna need to hit enough threes. I
know he can drive it, but he's gonna need to hit enough threes against
the Clipper's defense. It's gonna be the same for Tory Craig. What type
of series do you get from campaign? I think, and I don't mean
I think in a Kogi or let's go their bench, so a Craig or
a Cameron Payne, they can have a larger impact on the series. But
I'm almost at the point where, like the reserve that I just trust the
most, that I think what he does will scale and you know you're gonna
get for him. It's just the backup five where it's Landale or Biombo.
And that's not to say that their game changers, it's just the state of
when you start to get past the suns. As four players, the uncertainty
is such on at least one end of the floor, and I think a
lot of it's offense, to be honest with you, but you can even
have questions about their defensive depth. I'm just very much wondering if that becomes
an issue during the minutes where not even just we have all four guys on
the court, Like how many minutes are all four of your best players going
to play together in a single game, because you're gonna need to stagger in
a little bit, And how vulnerable does that make you? Now, you're
definitely not as vulnerable as if Paul George was healthy, and so you have
that going for you. So maybe this is more of a longer term playoff
question. How do you sort of feel about that? I just you know,
as you're mentioning names of guys that are gonna factor in, you know,
Yeah, the first thing I thought of is, well, so I
guess a Kogi or Craig is going to be the guy to guard Kauai because
you probably don't want it to be Durant and so, yeah, like that
seems like a problem. I just, man, what do we what do
we do with that? And then I kind of flip it and it's like,
well, Kawai is gonna have to guard somebody, Kauhi might have to
guard Durant, and just flipping it the other way, Kawai's may have to
guard Booker and maybe he can do that for a full series. I don't
know, but I don't feel like this is a series where you can spare
Kauai, and so I have concerns about him holding up having to be the
be all end all on both ends. I think your point about the Sun's
like if in depth generally is is right. You know, I just don't
know how many guys they need to find beyond their big four. It's a
different question deeper in the playoffs, but against this Clippers team, I don't
know how deep you really need to be if your top four are better than
the other teams, like top one, because because after Kauai, you know,
I think Batouma is a lock to play a lot, I mean,
and then what Russell Westbrook's gonna play a lot? I don't feel awesome about
that if I'm the Clippers. Even though he has everybody obligatory meant and he's
been better with the Clippers than he was with the Lakers, he's you know,
phased out some of the worst things he did. I still just like
the fact that he can't shoot, the fact that he's spacey off the ball
defensively, those are big problems in the playoffs against an offense that, by
the way, and I wanted to get to this earlier, the Suns are
using Kevin Durant differently, Like he is not doing a lot of pick and
roll, He is not doing a lot of isolation. They have dramatically scaled
up his off ball touches, so I think, I mean, that just
speaks to his scalability and the way that you could put him into any offense
and he's never going to cause a problem and he'll only make it better.
But I mean, I just don't see how the Clippers both slow down the
basic pick and roll stuff that the Suns can run with, again assuming you
got your best guys on the floor, and also keep track of Durant off
the ball. If that's what ends up being kind of the go to the
best you can do as well, we're just gonna leave a Kogi in the
corner and we'll stag off him. Like we mentioned in the cav series,
if a Koro were out there, I just I don't know if I mean
that's you got one you got one move, you got one bullet to fire.
I think defensively if you're the Clippers, who've been a bad defense all
year, by the way, and I just don't see. So whatever depth
issues the Suns have, I think they're more profound for the Clippers in terms
of, you know, not necessarily just looking. You know, oh,
Norman Powell's gonna conf the mention score, and you know they're maybe maybe Robert
Covington will do something in zoobots might just you know, overpowering a little bit
like yeah, there's but I'm more concerned with the Clippers having enough real playable,
you know, difference makers than I am with the Suns, because the
Sun's high end guys are just so good. I do wonder if with Ross
and Norman Powell they can win the rim pressure free throw battle more and the
Suns, well, you win the pressure battle against the Suns all the time.
Like that's they don't, they don't. The Clippers are in the same
boat, like these are two teams that just inherently before the Rush trade specifically
and even after it, they weren't generating a ton. They don't get to
the rim a bunch. The Suns were actually post trade deadline. There's so
much noise in here, thirty in opponent free throw attempt rate. That could
help the Clippers if they're able to get buckets that way. But I don't
know that I trust Russ with his turnovers in this series, and I would
agree with you. But before I ask my question about the Clippers, is
this a DeAndre Ayton series? And I think David at the four point playing
on Twitter posted a great threat about how they've been using him differently. He's
been hanging out in the dunker spot more. I noted this on a previous
pod, though I think it was a solo one. I don't think it
was with you the bailout feels like when he's catching the ball, like if
he's setting high screens or if he's just not operating near the basket. It
feels like he's more inclined the bailout since the Kevin Durant trade when he's on
the floor with his like star players, and so it's felt like more pronounced
with Kevin Durant on the court than if he's not. I don't know if
that's a mindset thing or if it's something to worry about, because the Clippers
can play him a bunch of different ways, where like, all right,
putting him in the dunker spot is fine. I think zoobots can handle that.
And if you want to go small and it's I'm like Robert coming in
or Nick Batoum there, man, they're not. I'm sorry, I would
say, man, man. And we haven't even talked about Terrence Man.
I mean he's yeah. I think he's actually monstrous in this series. Because
when you talk about Clippers secondary ball handlers, people immediately go to Norman Powell.
They immediately go to Russell Westbrook in addition to Kwai. They even go
to Batum. It's like, no, it's like Terrence Man is like the
guy that would be suit. I understand the other guys need to do that,
but like Terrence Man is super important to that. But I do think
that the Clippers might be like even without Paul George and the you know,
the trickle up effect it has with how their defensive coverages are going to change.
I don't know if this is a DeAndre Eton series for me. I
think in fury, if they go small, you can say, well,
no, Deandreton can just mash as a play finisher, and he might.
But again, the bailout stuff to me when he's not in the dunker spot
is real, and the Sons can do all this other stuff you mentioned.
Kevin Durant off ball the Timeline guys the podcast Fantastic Podcast checked him out on
Blue Wire as well. They've talked about just like the double drag action.
It's just an absolutely killer so I understand it. But just like and I
think DeAndrea could have a terrible series and the Suns still win. I'm just
curious to is this a DeAndre is it's a better deondre In series, Like
are the Clippers a better matchup for eighton than some of the other opponents?
That the Suns might have to face or is this a worse one for him?
So I think the centers are really connected here to me, and it's
it's competent not a Mason Plumber series. Sorry injury, I'm calling it right
now. It's not every series is a Mason Plumber series. I think so
Zobots is really important to the Clippers, and I think you probably want to
keep him on the floor as much as you can, which again is surprising
to some extent because I feel like the Clippers, you know, saw what
they did to Rudy Gobert with five outlooks and kind of built a roster in
a lot of ways that was designed to be able to replicate that, and
I just don't think, you know, so that version of the team this
year would be I guess like Man Westbrook, maybe Kauai Covington batum because Marcus
Morris just doesn't play anymore. Maybe you put him out there and you take
Russ off the floor. Whatever. I don't think that's a lineup that Aten
has trouble with defensively necessarily, So I guess in that sense, this is
an eighton series to me, and I think he's probably going to be fine
Slash do very well because you need him out there for Zubots just to have
some size. And I think you probably are going to be okay getting away
with putting him out there against if if, because it's an if. I
don't know if they will if the Clippers downsize, because they might just play
plumbly instead. So I mean, like, is it possible that eighton just
you know, as usual, just refuses to dunk anything and doesn't play with
enough force and doesn't capitalize on the Clippers if they're smaller or is not aggressive
in the dunker spot. Yeah, that's always in play I think for him.
But I don't feel like this is the type of series where the Suns
are going to have to think about maybe we got to get him off the
floor if only, I mean only because they don't have anybody else to play
that's dearly as good as him. Well, yeah, that wasn't what.
I don't think that he could be played off the floor, to be to
be clear, this might be the series though the Clippers downsize. If he
wanted to try Kevin Durant at the five. Maybe I just don't think you
lose much. I mean, you know, like to your point, Westbrook
will put pressure on the rim, Kawhi will draw fouls, like there are
ways for the Clippers to make it hard to play a conventional center. But
I think the Clippers are going to play a conventional center like a lot.
So I think I think Aiden is Actually I don't. I don't want to
say he's really important, just because if you have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker
on your team, like those guys are just more important. So but I
think he can eat. I think he should have a good series. I
think there will be opportunities for him to contribute on both ends, regardless of
how the Clippers, you know, kind of feel their lineups. I'm asking
this question because I think it's a real question, and maybe it's not in
the Clippers locker room. Who does Kawhi Leonard? Who should he guard?
You want to hear my answer. I think my answer might be contrarian.
Honestly, I think I am putting I'm putting him on Devin Booker, and
I just think it's because nobody can do anything with Kevin Durant, so you
might as well put him on the guy that he might be able to overpower
as much as anything. So, but all that is the crux. That
is one of the not the crux, but it's a crucial point in the
series. Is can he He's gonna have to guard somebody. I think if
you hide him somewhere, you're just copping out, like you're just you're dead
in the water. So he's gonna have to take on a major responsibility.
Is a Booker for you two that he has to guard? Yes, because
my reasoning is, and I don't think if you put Kawai on Devin Booker,
I don't think Kevin Durant will be stashed off the ball as much.
I want to make that clear. But because of how much Devin Booker does
move away from the ball, I think the best bet is to go with
Kawai there. And I would go the route of we're gonna throw a bigger
or stocky body at Durant. I know, is it batoum is this?
Does this become a Marcus more a series? Just because of his build?
Do you think Covington could try? Do you just say, fuck it,
We're just gonna bet on Russell Westbrook being amped up and we're gonna try and
like put him against Kevin Durant and just see what happens. I'm being ridiculous
there. That'd be really funny, though I would pay a premium to see
that. But I am because of Devin Booker's familiarity within the offense, because
I know Kevin Durant is scalable, but Devin Booker is scalable in a way
whether there's like off ball mobility where if he doesn't touch the ball, like
he can change the possession. I don't view Kevin Durant and that's Kevin Durant
exist. Kevin Durant's existence can change the way you defend a possession, but
Devin Booker's off ball movement is going to change it more, and so I
would put him on Booker. I think the counter argument would be, well,
have Kawai on kd because if Kevin Durant is stationary for more possessions,
does that allow Kawai to sort of rove You're not roving from Kevin Durant,
Like, if anything, Kevin Durant will just take Kawai out of the play.
And so that's why I would have Kawai on Devin Booker. But I
don't know if that's fair to have Kauai do where there's been a lot of
talk about his defensive decline. I think he could have been all defense based
off what he's done since December. Like, I don't think that that would
be absurd to say the Clipper's defense has not been especially great all the time,
but like he is still I would say more that dude than not that
dude. Well, and just like if not him, who if if Kauai
is not taking it, there's just not a lot of great options elsewhere.
I mean, you know, the Clippers do have like Batoum is a good
defensive player. As Lee's limited, He's not nearly I mean, he's older.
He's just not going to be able to stay in front of those guys
consistently. That's another reason I think Zobots is gonna play a lot is because
there will be some some some blowbuys and some decent looks where you're just gonna
need somebody big around the rim to hope hopefully, you know, prevent the
lay up parade. But yeah, I think I think Booker is the right
choice. I just like Kauai is gonna Kauai has such a heavy lift in
this series because I think the best thing you can do defending Durant, and
this would be a reason to not have him on. Durant is to deny
the ball. And it's exhausting if you're just face guarding a guy like that
and trying to deny the catch, because once Durrant's got the ball, you
know you're not going to make him shorter. As a defender, you can
get into his space, but like and Kauai, you know Kawai as an
all time wing defender, not necessarily right now, but like, I just
don't think there's a lot you can do once Durant has it in his spot,
And so it would just wear him down too much to be sprinting around
face guarding trying to keep Durant from catching it. And and then then you're
letting Chris Paul and Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton mess around in advantage situations while
you're chasing Durant. Like, I just it's it's this tough. I mean,
can we just get to the picks now? I think we've just angled
towards. I was gonna say, this is a series where when you look
at how they match up, the Clippers have more options than the Suns.
And also less solutions right right, which is which is if you have too
many options, it's like the quarterback thing. You actually don't have one that
there are there's no good ones. I'm going I'm going sons in five.
If Paul George were playing it, I'd go longer, but I don't think
i'd picked the Clippers even then. I'm going sons and five and I'm operating
under the sumpers that we don't see. Paul George. Yeah, it's just
where I'm at. Do you have so we have just a couple of questions
for our playoff mailbad We have three of them. You're ready to dive into
these? You've not seen these before. Let's stick with the series we were.
We were just on Jake from State Farm asked. In the final game
of the regular season, the Clippers were incredibly underwhelming. The Suns rested Kadi
Booker, CB three eight, and I think a couple other guys. Their
star players were Darius Baisley, and the Clippers were almost full strength without PG
and even the Sun's almost won. Is that something we can expect to see
throughout this series? Kind of coming back to the Clippers seemingly have more options,
but just less solutions because you're looking at the top end isn't as good.
I don't expect. I'm just wondering, Like I feel like the Clippers
were internally struggling throughout that game of deciding like whether they needed to win or
lose for how they wanted to fare. That's just where I land on what
happened. Yeah, so is the question how much am I putting any stock
in what we saw in the zero like none and almost any of those any
of those late season games. I can't. Yeah, I mean it really
even if even if there were, there's just nothing to gain by tipping your
hand or what. Yeah, No, I a short answer, No,
I don't. I don't put a lot of stock in almost anything we saw
in the last like three days of the season. Do you don't have much
of the regular season, I sometimes don't pay attention. I don't pay attention
to it as much anymore. To the point we talked about the top of
the podcasts of postseason basketball, so much different, the amount of shakeups we
kind of saw where it's like, well, the Clippers and Suns kind of
look a lot different based off the way they're playing right now and it's the
same thing with the nets versus like the nets going up like you can't use
the regular season as Yeah, Harber, unbiased Pistons fan that you're born to
answer this question, Lan, I keep staring at this King's Warriors matchup,
and I can't see away for the Warriors to hold up defensively. It is
looking like they just move and fly around so much that an aging Warriors line
up would stuggle to keep up physically. So I guess my question is am
I underestimating Draymond's ability to blow up dribble handoffs or are the Kings going to
be curling into open for six straight games? I think you are underestimating that.
I also think the personnel wise, like all that off ball movement is
a lot harder to defend if you can't switch. And I said it earlier,
you know, and I think that if you have hard to say what
combinations will be out there. But if Jonathan Cominga is on the floor,
he's fine one to four. He's a great one on one defender, so
he can you can switch off ball stuff and chase. If Draymond Green is
out there, you can switch him one to five. If Gary Payton is
out there, you can switch him one to four. If Devincenzo's out there,
you can probably go one to three. But again, if the King's
forwards are Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes, I feel actually okay with someone like
Devincenzo on those guys and Wiggins same thing, you can go one to four.
So the off ball stuff, I think it's short circuited a little bit.
I suppose you could say the same thing about the Kings the other way.
But the Warriors have just seen switches and know how to slip and know
how to backcut when they're getting top blocked and all blah blah blah. So
yeah, I think the Warriors, like, look, the King's offense is
awesome. I just think the Warriors have the personnel to, you know,
handle it pretty effectively. And the point that the real crux of that is
Draymond. If you're if you're gonna run on offense, which the Kings will,
that I think principally involves Draymond Green in the action over and over and
over again. I just don't think that's gonna go well for the offense because
I think he's gonna diagnose he's gonna figure it out. There's no like Sabonis
actually cannot overpower him. It's just been tried and it doesn't work. So
I think I think, yeah, the Warriors, look, they're not going
to shut down this offense, but there will be stretches where the Warriors look
like they've kind of, you know, peaked at the notes and know what's
going to happen ahead of time. It's alan asked, could the Grizzlies try
attacking Lebron on defense and have him warmed down by the end of the series.
He looked pretty gassed against the Timberwolves and the energy that Grizzlies bring.
They're not going to Minnesota Timberwolves games away. Like in the plane, I
don't know, what do you think. You're just trying to get him switched
up onto Morant and pick and roll and then he blows by him like that
type of thing. What does that look like to you? That's I honestly
don't know what wearing Lebron down. If there was a way to get him
matched up. I don't want to discredit John Moran is so good, So
I want to make this clear, like the late like, it's just not
gonna be the Lakers will let like they'll guide him to the rim if Lebron
ends up on him, I think it would be more can you get Lebron's
which on the Jaren Jackson Junior or Desmond Baine, or can you get Lebron
just running around? Like let's look, what are they gonna Ideally, who
are they gonna have Lebron defend? Like if you want him on Xavier Tilman
or Santi Aldama, can you get them moving so that Lebron has to be
like just involved in actions and exert more energy. I think the biggest thing
they could do is to run after inbounds place because like, yeah, you
run off missus enforcing turnovers. Wow, isn't that revelatory? Run off inbounds
place? And see if it's maybe it's not John Morant, But can you
get Dylan Brooks going downhill to where he might barrow in to him? And
that might be the best way to wear Lebron down. And I say this
not as because I think Lebron is still an incredible defender. I just think
the Lakers will do everything in their power, and even if they don't,
Lebron will do everything in his power to where like he's not going to be
involved in these primary matchups, and so you need to do You need to
do a lot in snippets of time or on certain sets to just like force
him to think more and maybe that tires him out. Or I don't think
he'll get in foul trouble. He's really good about He's like, he'll make
business decisions all night. But I think I think Brooks and or Well and
Tilman or Aldama give Lebron too many options to kind of chill out on.
I would be interesting. I don't think they'll do this for any significant stretch
of time. But if the Grizzlies went smaller and played Jones with Morant and
Baine and Brooks as the four and Jackson as the five, you get some
interesting five outlooks that, you know, maybe make the Lakers bigs and Lebron
specifically have to scramble a little more. I just there are maybe creative ways
to do that. But I do have concerns about playing Mariant and Jones together
defensively just because of the lack of size. But you know, if it's
Danzelo Russell and Austin Reeves out there, maybe you know or Russell and Beasley.
You probably could get away with playing those two guys, and then maybe
it puts more of an onus on Lebron to have to work. I like
that final question. It's threefold from muckle jb versus Tips is going to be
an interesting coaching matchup. What are your thoughts on what each coach needs to
do or not do to win the series? And so what is your you're
looking at? What is the biggest decision for them? I think mine would
be just because I know I'm throwing you on the spot with this one,
and maybe it's the same one. I think Bickerstaff's biggest decisions just like,
well, who is going to play the most minutes with our top four guys?
Although it could be I think this is Tibs's biggest decision. If the
Knicks down size, I don't think they're actually built to be like, oh,
we're gonna pull Allen and we have to play just Mobli. But could
they force them to extend Cleveland's one big minutes like that could be a decision.
I don't think it would be for bickers half. But my biggest with
Tibbs is you know, and it's really an RJ. Barrett question is how
much? And a lot of it depends on Julius Randall, But like,
are you willing to go smaller during non rand It's during non random minuts because
they're not gonna play Randall at center, or if Randall's just not able to
go or whatever, are you willing to go a little bit smaller and flexible
to one prioritize the Garland and Mitchell defensive matchups while maybe just giving up a
lot on the interior. Yeah, I think the first thing that came to
mind was because we talked about it, was if it's not going to be
your Randle, or even if it is Randall, what are you doing with
the top end Barrett situation? You know, who's going to maybe see some
four Where does Barrett fit if you're going to play him at the three?
Like that's that's a big one. I think the other thing for tips two
is like, do you want to maybe focus on getting back a little more
as opposed to crashing the offensive glass as much as you do, because I'd
be concerned. It's hard to imagine the Nicks being worried about getting outscored in
a series because their offense is so good, but if you're letting Mitchell and
Garland kind of get out and you know, say Robinson's trailing the play because
he's on the offensive glass, which is a huge asset. But I don't
know, that's just something I would think about. It's not as big as
the lineup decisions you mentioned for either team. I would echo what you said
about Bickerstaff too, because you know you've got to figure out who that fifth
guy is going to be. I think it does help the Knicks, like
having Josh hard and quickly you're able to get back while also crafting the offensive
glass. But yeah, and then so this is the twofold question. The
biggest reason the Calves win this series is Evan Mobiley just makes it too hard
for the Knicks to score in the ways that they want to score. I
think mine would just be that the win the series because the Calves half court
from scratch offense is just overwhelming for the Knicks, Like having two shot makers
like Garland and Mitchell from the perimeter can undo everything that the Knicks might do
well on the defense. The Knicks win this sear The biggest reason the Knicks
would win this series is Brunson's just undeniable, and he manages to get all
the types of shots that he wants against Cleveland smaller guards, and he doesn't,
let you know, the giant human inside the restricted area bother him too
much. I think mine would be aside from Julius Randall being absolutely positively healthy,
is well, Yeah, IQ and or Barrett have like the series of
their lives. It's just sort of these Oh, the Calves have forced the
Knicks to go to their secondary creators and scores, and they're they're hitting their
driving kicks or in quickly embarrassed case like they're getting into the paint tough finishes,
maybe getting to the line. That's interesting because it gives the Knicks two
ways based on our reasoning, because one is I, well, Brunson gets
what he wants, and yours depends on Brunson not being able to get what
he wants and the guys he's kicking it to making shots. So like,
hey, two ways for the next upset here, it's just the quickly Brunton
stuff is interesting because of what they do in the lane and how important that
is in the Knicks' offense. If Cleveland is just erasing that, yeah,
it's just oh, Cleveland, such, they're so good. I don't I
don't know what I'm missing about Cleveland, but they're everything. Every time I
watched them, every all the data we look at, they're just so good.
Don't don't let them get like two more rotation guys in free agency this
summer, because then we're gonna have to say people, they still have the
whole non taxpayers mid level. I don't know who that nets you, but
just like this team having that spending weapon, Yeah, it's scary, it's
scary. Do you want to take us out? Yeah, I'll take us
out. This was good. Everybody who has listened or is listening. Thanks
as always. Make sure that you are following us on all our socials here
on the screen or if you need them at Hardwood Knox at Hardwood, Underscore
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is always helpful. Make sure you tell your friends we're gonna be doing a
lot of playoff content. This is the best part of This is the best
part of the season. To just constantly be talking about it because everything changes
all the time and it's really interesting, So check back with us constantly.
We'll try to get as much content up as possible, and as always,
we close with the shout out to one and only Frank Milikin and an apology
to Jared out who's gonna win his first round Scaries