WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:05.120 People don't underpla is one of the biggest threats of the future of human civilization, 2 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:07.639 and that is what it's going on right now, which is not great. 3 00:00:07.679 --> 00:00:11.720 I mean, we really want to wake up the morning and look forward 4 00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:14.800 to the future. We want to be excited about what's going to happen, 5 00:00:15.839 --> 00:00:22.399 and and life cannot simply be about sort of solving one miserable problem after another. 6 00:00:23.920 --> 00:00:28.199 I read At the same time, I want to want to caution against 7 00:00:28.280 --> 00:00:34.759 complacency, so I can't epsize that that're not As long as we push hard 8 00:00:35.399 --> 00:00:39.920 and are not complacent. Um, the future is going to be great. 9 00:00:40.159 --> 00:00:44.479 Don't worry about it. I'm curious about your timelines and how you predict and 10 00:00:44.520 --> 00:00:47.399 how comes. Some things are so amazingly on the money, and some art 11 00:00:47.479 --> 00:00:52.600 so when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example, you 12 00:00:52.679 --> 00:00:57.600 were scoffed in twenty fourteen because no one since Henry Ford with the Model T 13 00:00:57.799 --> 00:01:02.119 had had come close to that kind of growth rate for four cars. You 14 00:01:02.119 --> 00:01:04.640 were scoffed, and you actually hit five hundred thousand cars and five hundred ten 15 00:01:04.680 --> 00:01:10.239 thousand or whatever. Pretty but five years ago, last time you came to 16 00:01:10.239 --> 00:01:14.680 Ted we Um, I asked you about full self driving and you said, 17 00:01:14.760 --> 00:01:19.040 yep, this very year where I am confident that we will have a car 18 00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:23.959 going from LA to New York without any intervention. Yeah. I don't want 19 00:01:23.959 --> 00:01:29.000 to blow your mind, but I'm not always right. UM. So talk 20 00:01:29.159 --> 00:01:34.280 talks between those too. Why why why has full self driving in particular been 21 00:01:34.480 --> 00:01:37.840 so hard to predict? I mean, the thing that really got me and 22 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:41.280 I think it's going to get a lot of other people, is that there 23 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:45.959 are just so many false storms with with self driving. Um, where you 24 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:49.640 think you think you've got the problem, I have a handle on the problem, 25 00:01:49.719 --> 00:01:53.680 and then nope, it turns out you just hit a ceiling um and 26 00:01:56.159 --> 00:02:00.680 uh, because what would if you if you would applied the progress? The 27 00:02:00.719 --> 00:02:04.000 progress looks like a log curve. So it's like, yeah, a series 28 00:02:04.000 --> 00:02:07.519 of log curves. So most boil in our log curve business, suppose. 29 00:02:07.560 --> 00:02:12.599 But it goes it goes up sort of you know, it's sort of a 30 00:02:12.599 --> 00:02:16.240 fairly straightway, and then it starts tailing off and and and you start getting 31 00:02:16.240 --> 00:02:21.599 diminishing returns. Yeah, and you're like, oh, this it was trending 32 00:02:21.680 --> 00:02:24.080 up and now it's sort of curving over and not and and you you start 33 00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:30.240 getting to these what I call local local maxima where you don't realize basically how 34 00:02:30.319 --> 00:02:37.560 dummy were that's and then and then and then it happens game so um and 35 00:02:37.960 --> 00:02:43.800 ultimately um these things you know in retrospect they seem obvious, but in order 36 00:02:43.800 --> 00:02:47.599 to solve full self driving properly, you actually just you have to solve real 37 00:02:47.599 --> 00:02:52.800 world AI. Um. Yeah, because you see, like what other road 38 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:58.360 networks designed to work with the designed to work with a biological neural net our 39 00:02:58.439 --> 00:03:05.479 brains, um, and with vision our eyes, and so in order to 40 00:03:05.520 --> 00:03:12.879 make it work with computers, you basically need to solve real world AI and 41 00:03:13.039 --> 00:03:22.599 vision because because we need we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to 42 00:03:22.639 --> 00:03:27.719 have to have self driving work for a system that was designed for eyes and 43 00:03:27.840 --> 00:03:31.039 biological neural nets, you know we need I guess when you put it that 44 00:03:31.080 --> 00:03:35.520 way, sort of like quite obvious that the only way to solve for self 45 00:03:35.599 --> 00:03:39.280 driving is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision. Or what do you 46 00:03:39.319 --> 00:03:44.000 feel about the current architecture? Do you think you have an architecture now where 47 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:47.840 where there is a chance for the logrithmic curve not to tail off any any 48 00:03:47.879 --> 00:03:55.080 time soon. Well, I meantally these these maybe an infamous last words, 49 00:03:55.120 --> 00:03:59.439 but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year, that we 50 00:03:59.439 --> 00:04:04.439 will exceed Uh, you're like, what the probability of an accident? At 51 00:04:04.439 --> 00:04:08.840 what point do you exceed that of the average person? Right, I think 52 00:04:08.879 --> 00:04:12.520 we will exceed that this year. But but you but but but you're behind 53 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:16.319 the scenes looking at the data. You're seeing enough improvement to believe that this 54 00:04:16.399 --> 00:04:20.199 year timeline is real. Yes, that's what it seems like. I mean, 55 00:04:20.399 --> 00:04:24.240 like I say, you know, we could be here talking again in 56 00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:27.120 a year. It's like, well, another year went by and it didn't 57 00:04:27.120 --> 00:04:29.360 happen. But I think this, I think this is the year. And 58 00:04:29.399 --> 00:04:31.759 so in general, when when people talk about elon elon time, I mean 59 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:35.519 it sounds like like you can't just have a general rule that if you predict 60 00:04:35.560 --> 00:04:39.959 that something will be done in six months. Actually what you what we should 61 00:04:40.079 --> 00:04:42.519 imagine is it's going to be a year or it's like two x or three 62 00:04:42.639 --> 00:04:45.759 x. It depends on the type of prediction. Some things, I guess, 63 00:04:45.800 --> 00:04:50.319 things involving software at you know, AI whatever are fundamentally harder to predict 64 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:57.399 than others. Is there an element that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines 65 00:04:57.439 --> 00:05:01.720 to drive people to be ambitious. Without that, nothing gets done well. 66 00:05:01.839 --> 00:05:06.040 I generally believe in terms of internal timelines that we want to set set the 67 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:11.439 most aggressive timeline that we can UM, because there's sort of like a low 68 00:05:11.439 --> 00:05:16.360 of gases expansion, where for schedules where whatever time you set, it's not 69 00:05:16.399 --> 00:05:19.439 going to be less than that. It's very rare that will be less than 70 00:05:19.480 --> 00:05:24.040 that. UM. And as far as my predictions I concerned. UM, 71 00:05:24.240 --> 00:05:26.560 what what has to happen in the media is that they will report all the 72 00:05:26.600 --> 00:05:30.480 wrong ones and ignore all the right ones right UM. And or you know 73 00:05:30.839 --> 00:05:34.079 when when when writing an article about me, I've had a long career in 74 00:05:34.160 --> 00:05:36.920 multiple industries. If you if you list my sins, I sound like the 75 00:05:36.920 --> 00:05:41.240 worst person on earth. But if you put those against the you know, 76 00:05:41.319 --> 00:05:44.120 the things I've done right, it makes much more sense. You know. 77 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:48.040 So essentially, the longer you do anything, the more mistakes that that that 78 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:53.360 you will make cumulatively, which if you sum up those mistakes will sound like 79 00:05:54.079 --> 00:05:59.600 I'm the worst predictor ever. But for example, for it tells La vehicle 80 00:05:59.680 --> 00:06:02.519 growth. I said, I think we're doing fifty percent, and we've we've 81 00:06:02.519 --> 00:06:06.879 done eighty percent. Yes, so, but they don't mention that one. 82 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:11.519 So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on 83 00:06:11.600 --> 00:06:15.000 predictions. They're more optimistic than pessimistic, but they're not all optimistic. Some 84 00:06:15.040 --> 00:06:24.079 of them are exceeded, probably more or later, but they they do come 85 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:28.000 true. It's very rare that they do not come true. It's sort of 86 00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:32.120 like, you know, uh, you know, if there's some radical technology 87 00:06:32.160 --> 00:06:35.519 prediction. But the point is not that it was a few years late, 88 00:06:35.519 --> 00:06:40.959 but that it happened at all. Yeah, that's the that's the more important 89 00:06:41.000 --> 00:06:46.279 part. So it feels like at some point in the last year, seeing 90 00:06:46.439 --> 00:06:53.040 the progress on understanding that the AI, the Tesla AI, understanding the world 91 00:06:53.040 --> 00:06:56.560 around it led to a kind of an Ahlm moment. It does, because 92 00:06:56.560 --> 00:07:01.000 you really surprised people recently when you said, probably the most important product development 93 00:07:01.079 --> 00:07:08.199 going on at Tesla this year is this robot Optimus. Yes, many companies 94 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:11.120 out there have tried to put out these robots, have been working on them 95 00:07:11.199 --> 00:07:15.040 four years, and so far no one has really cracked it. There's no 96 00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:19.639 mass adoption robot in people's homes. There are some in manufacturing, but it's 97 00:07:19.839 --> 00:07:25.800 like I would say that no one's kind of really cracked it. What is 98 00:07:25.839 --> 00:07:29.360 it something that happened in the development of full self driving that gave you the 99 00:07:29.399 --> 00:07:31.319 confidence to say, you know what, we could do something special? Yeah, 100 00:07:32.360 --> 00:07:35.000 yeah, exactly. So you know, it took me a while to 101 00:07:35.480 --> 00:07:41.000 sort of realize that in order to solve self driving, you really needed to 102 00:07:41.000 --> 00:07:45.800 solve real world aim and the point of which you save real world AI for 103 00:07:46.040 --> 00:07:49.720 a car which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize 104 00:07:49.720 --> 00:07:55.120 that to a robot on legs as well, the two hard parts. I 105 00:07:55.160 --> 00:08:00.519 think it's obviously companies like Boston Dynamics have shown that it's possible to make quite 106 00:08:00.519 --> 00:08:03.800 compelling, sometimes alarming robots. Right. Um, you know, so this 107 00:08:05.079 --> 00:08:09.160 is from a sensor is an actualator standpoint, it's certainly been demonstrated by by 108 00:08:09.199 --> 00:08:13.199 many that it's possible to make a humoroid robot. The thing that the things 109 00:08:13.240 --> 00:08:18.040 that are currently missing are enough intelligence, enough intelligence for the robot to navigate 110 00:08:18.079 --> 00:08:24.480 the real world and do useful things without being explicitly instructed. So the missing 111 00:08:24.480 --> 00:08:31.199 things are basically real world intelligence and scaling up manufacturing. Those are two things 112 00:08:31.199 --> 00:08:35.000 that tells LA is very good at and so then we basically just need to 113 00:08:35.120 --> 00:08:41.279 design the specialized actuators and sensors that are needed for a humanoid robot. People 114 00:08:41.360 --> 00:08:43.559 have no idea this is this is going to be bigger than the car. 115 00:08:46.559 --> 00:08:48.360 So let's dig into exactly that. I mean, in one way, it's 116 00:08:48.399 --> 00:08:54.159 actually an easier problem than full self driving because you instead of an object going 117 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:56.559 along at sixty miles an hour, which if it gets it wrong, someone 118 00:08:56.559 --> 00:09:01.240 will die, this is an object that's engineered to only go what three or 119 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:03.879 four or five marks in our walking experience, and so a mistake is that 120 00:09:05.159 --> 00:09:07.799 there aren't lives at stake. There might be embarrassment at stake. It doesn't 121 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:16.320 take it over and right and now sleep recently a right, but but so 122 00:09:16.399 --> 00:09:20.360 talk about I mean, I think the first applications you've mentioned are probably going 123 00:09:20.360 --> 00:09:24.279 to be manufacturing, but eventually the vision is to have these available for people 124 00:09:24.360 --> 00:09:31.639 at home. If you had a robot that really understood the three D architecture 125 00:09:31.720 --> 00:09:37.600 of your house and knew where every object in that house was or was supposed 126 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:43.679 to be, and could recognize or those objects. I mean that's kind of 127 00:09:43.720 --> 00:09:45.720 amazing, isn't it. Like like that the kind of thing that you could 128 00:09:45.759 --> 00:09:50.399 ask a robot to do would be what like tidy up? Yeah, absolutely, 129 00:09:52.440 --> 00:09:56.320 or make make dinner, I guess the lawn, take take a cup 130 00:09:56.360 --> 00:10:01.559 of tea two grandma and show her family pictures and exactly take care of my 131 00:10:01.679 --> 00:10:05.440 grandmother and make sure, yeah, exactly when it could recognize obviously, recognize 132 00:10:05.440 --> 00:10:09.120 everyone in the home. Yeah, could play catch with your kids, yes, 133 00:10:09.399 --> 00:10:13.039 I mean, obviously we need to be careful, just doesn't become a 134 00:10:13.120 --> 00:10:16.879 dystopian situation. Like I think. One of thinks that's going to be important 135 00:10:16.919 --> 00:10:24.200 is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot that cannot be updated over 136 00:10:24.240 --> 00:10:26.840 the air, where if you, for example, we're to say stuff soft 137 00:10:26.840 --> 00:10:30.919 stop, that would if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, 138 00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:35.159 you know type of thing, and that's not updatable remotely. I think it's 139 00:10:35.159 --> 00:10:37.960 going to be important to have safety futures like that. Yeah, that sounds 140 00:10:39.080 --> 00:10:41.679 wise. And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI. 141 00:10:41.799 --> 00:10:43.480 I've said this for many years. I don't I don't love being regulated, 142 00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:46.360 but I you know, I think this is an important thing for public safety. 143 00:10:46.720 --> 00:10:52.000 Let's come back to that. But I'm just I don't think many people 144 00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:56.600 have really sort of taken seriously the notion of, you know, a robot 145 00:10:56.639 --> 00:10:58.799 at home. I mean at the start of the computing revolution, you know, 146 00:10:58.919 --> 00:11:01.039 Bill Gates said a computer in every home, and people at the time 147 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:05.720 said, yeah, whatever, who would even want that in our pocket? 148 00:11:05.799 --> 00:11:09.240 Do you think there will be basically like in say say twenty fifty or whatever, 149 00:11:09.240 --> 00:11:13.000 that like a robot in most homes is what there will be on people 150 00:11:13.279 --> 00:11:16.240 will I think they probably them account on them. You'll have your own butler 151 00:11:16.320 --> 00:11:22.720 basically, yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot. Probably yeah, 152 00:11:22.799 --> 00:11:24.679 I mean how much of a buddy do you like? Do you do? 153 00:11:24.320 --> 00:11:26.720 How many applications you thought? Is there? You know, can you have 154 00:11:26.720 --> 00:11:31.559 a romantic partner, sex part I mean probably inevitable. I mean I did 155 00:11:31.559 --> 00:11:35.080 promise the Internet that I would make catgirals. We could make a robot catgal 156 00:11:39.879 --> 00:11:46.879 that, So yeah, I guess it'll be what what whatever? People want? 157 00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:50.679 Really? You know, So what sort of timeline should we be thinking 158 00:11:50.720 --> 00:11:56.759 about of the first the first models that are actually made and sold, Well, 159 00:11:58.559 --> 00:12:01.279 you know, the first units that that we tend to make are m 160 00:12:03.200 --> 00:12:05.799 for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive, and things that people don't 161 00:12:05.799 --> 00:12:09.679 want to do. And you know, I think we'll have like an interesting 162 00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:13.960 prototype sometime this year. We might have something useful next year, but I 163 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:18.559 think quite likely within at least two years, and then we'll see rabbit growth 164 00:12:18.639 --> 00:12:22.519 year over a year of the usefulness of the humor wid robots, an decrease 165 00:12:22.559 --> 00:12:28.279 in cost, and scaling out production initially just selling to businesses or when when 166 00:12:28.320 --> 00:12:31.159 do you picture you'll you'll sell You'll start selling them where you can buy your 167 00:12:33.039 --> 00:12:35.919 parents one for Christmas or something i'd see I listened ten years. Yeah, 168 00:12:37.159 --> 00:12:39.679 how how how help me on the economics of this? So what do you 169 00:12:39.720 --> 00:12:43.879 picture the cost of one of these being? Well, I think the cost 170 00:12:43.000 --> 00:12:48.559 is actually not going to be crazy high, um, like less than a 171 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:52.159 car. Initially, things will be expensive because it'll be new technology at low 172 00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:56.080 production volume. The complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of 173 00:12:56.080 --> 00:13:01.279 a humanoid robot, so I would expect that it's going to be less than 174 00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:03.080 a car, or at least equivalent to a cheap car. So even if 175 00:13:03.080 --> 00:13:07.120 it starts at fifty k. Within a few years it's down to twenty K 176 00:13:07.240 --> 00:13:11.759 or lower or whatever, and maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still book, 177 00:13:11.039 --> 00:13:16.399 But thinking about the economics of this, if you can replace a thirty 178 00:13:16.399 --> 00:13:20.799 thousand dollars forty thousand dollars a year worker which you have to pay every year, 179 00:13:22.519 --> 00:13:26.600 with a one time payment of twenty five thousand dollars for a robot that 180 00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:31.519 can work longer hours, a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs. 181 00:13:31.559 --> 00:13:35.000 How worried should the world be about that? I want to worry about the 182 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:39.360 sort of putting people out of a job thing. I think we're actually going 183 00:13:39.440 --> 00:13:43.440 to have and already do have a massive shortage of labor. So I think 184 00:13:43.519 --> 00:13:52.000 I think we will have not not people out of work, but actually still 185 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:58.440 a shortage labor even in the future. But this really will be a world 186 00:13:58.480 --> 00:14:03.320 of abundance. Any good and services will be available to anyone who wants them. 187 00:14:03.360 --> 00:14:07.399 That it will be so cheap to have goods and services will be ridiculous. 188 00:14:07.480 --> 00:14:11.960 And presuming it should be possible to imagine a bunch of goods and services 189 00:14:11.000 --> 00:14:16.919 that can't profitably be made now but could be made in that world. Courtesy 190 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:22.360 of legions of robots. Yeah, it will be a world of abundance. 191 00:14:22.639 --> 00:14:26.679 The only scarcity that will exist in the future is that which we decide to 192 00:14:26.679 --> 00:14:31.639 create ourselves as humans. Okay, so AI is allowing us to imagine a 193 00:14:31.799 --> 00:14:37.159 differently powered economy that will create this abundance. What are you most worried about 194 00:14:37.200 --> 00:14:41.279 going wrong? Well, like I said, AI and roboducts will will bring, 195 00:14:41.360 --> 00:14:46.360 um, bring out what might be termed the age of abundance. Other 196 00:14:46.360 --> 00:14:52.000 people affuse this word um and and that this is my prediction, will be 197 00:14:52.039 --> 00:14:56.360 an age of abundance um for everyone. Um that that. I guess. 198 00:14:56.480 --> 00:15:07.519 There's the the dangers would be the artificial general intelligence or digital superintelligence d couples 199 00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:11.600 from a collective human world and goes into direction that for some reason we don't 200 00:15:11.639 --> 00:15:16.759 like, of whatever whatever direction might go. Um, you know, that's 201 00:15:16.759 --> 00:15:20.480 sort of sort of The idea behind neuralink is to try to more tightly couple 202 00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:31.720 collective human world to the two digital superintelligence and also along the way solve a 203 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:35.759 lot of brain injuries and spinal injuries and that kind of thing. So even 204 00:15:35.759 --> 00:15:39.039 if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal, it will I think it will 205 00:15:39.080 --> 00:15:43.639 succeed in in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage. So that the 206 00:15:43.919 --> 00:15:48.120 spirit there is that if we're going to make these ais that are so vastly 207 00:15:48.159 --> 00:15:50.960 intelligent, we ought to be wide directly to them so that we ourselves can 208 00:15:52.039 --> 00:15:56.480 have these superpowers more more directly. But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk 209 00:15:56.600 --> 00:16:03.759 that those superpowers might ten ugly and unintended. I think it's a risk. 210 00:16:03.879 --> 00:16:11.279 I agree, I don't. I'm not saying that I have some certain answer 211 00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:15.600 to that risk. I'm I'm just saying, like, like, maybe one 212 00:16:15.639 --> 00:16:22.919 of the things that would be good for ensuring that the future is one that 213 00:16:22.960 --> 00:16:27.919 we want is to more tightly couple human world, collective human world, to 214 00:16:29.559 --> 00:16:33.759 digital intelligence. UM. The issue that we face here is that we're already 215 00:16:34.679 --> 00:16:41.080 a sidewalk. If you think about it, the computers are an extension of 216 00:16:41.120 --> 00:16:45.759 ourselves, and when we die, there's like we have like a digital ghost 217 00:16:45.759 --> 00:16:49.759 all of our text messages and social media and emails. And it's quite eerie 218 00:16:49.799 --> 00:16:55.000 actually when someone dies and there but everything online is still there. But but 219 00:16:55.200 --> 00:16:57.799 you say, like, what's what's the limitation? What is it that UM 220 00:16:59.519 --> 00:17:03.440 in him? It's human machine symbiosis. It's the data rate. When you 221 00:17:03.480 --> 00:17:07.279 communicate, especially with a phone, you're moving your thumbs right very slowly, 222 00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:12.960 so you're like moving with two little meatsticks right at a rate that's maybe ten 223 00:17:14.240 --> 00:17:18.559 per second, optimistically one hundred pers per second. And computers are are communicating 224 00:17:18.640 --> 00:17:23.200 at the gigabit level beyond. Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually 225 00:17:23.240 --> 00:17:27.160 working that you've got You've got a richer sort of higher bandwidth connection, if 226 00:17:27.160 --> 00:17:33.359 you like, between external electronics and a brain than has been possible before. 227 00:17:33.039 --> 00:17:42.319 Yeah. So the I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons sort during 228 00:17:42.359 --> 00:17:49.640 rewrite on neurons with tiny electrodes have been demonstrated for decades. So it's not 229 00:17:49.759 --> 00:17:55.200 like this is the concept is near. What the problem is that there's no 230 00:17:55.240 --> 00:18:00.599 product that works well that you can go and and buy. So it's it's 231 00:18:00.599 --> 00:18:06.200 all sort of in research labs. Um, and it's it's not it's uh 232 00:18:06.839 --> 00:18:10.440 like there's there's always like some chords sticking out of your head and it's it's 233 00:18:10.519 --> 00:18:15.880 quite gruesome, and it's it's really, um, there's there's no good product 234 00:18:15.440 --> 00:18:19.440 that that that actually there's a good job and is high bandwidth and safe and 235 00:18:19.559 --> 00:18:25.319 something you'd actually that you could buy and would want to buy. So um. 236 00:18:25.440 --> 00:18:29.799 But but in it the way to think of the neural device is kind 237 00:18:29.839 --> 00:18:36.160 of like a fitbit or an Apple watch. Um that's uh, where we 238 00:18:36.599 --> 00:18:38.160 take out a sort of a small section of skull about the size of a 239 00:18:38.240 --> 00:18:44.519 quarter. Um replace that with what, in many ways really is very much 240 00:18:44.599 --> 00:18:48.440 like um uh, a fitbitt, Apple watch or some kind of smart watch 241 00:18:48.440 --> 00:18:56.119 thing. Um uh and um and and but but with with tiny tiny wires, 242 00:18:56.200 --> 00:18:59.359 very very very tiny wires tied to wires so tiny it's hard to even 243 00:18:59.359 --> 00:19:03.480 see them. And it's very important to have very tiny wires that you when 244 00:19:03.519 --> 00:19:06.599 they're implanted, they don't they don't damage the brain. How far are you 245 00:19:06.640 --> 00:19:12.519 from putting these into humans? Well, we have put in our FDA application 246 00:19:14.599 --> 00:19:18.720 to have the aspirationally do do the first human implant this year. The first 247 00:19:19.319 --> 00:19:23.839 uses will be for neurological injuries are different kinds, yes, But running the 248 00:19:23.880 --> 00:19:30.759 clock forward and imagining when when people are actually using these for their own enhancement, 249 00:19:30.920 --> 00:19:33.960 let's say, ahead, for the enhancement of the world. How clear 250 00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:37.880 are you in your mind as to what it will feel like to have one 251 00:19:37.880 --> 00:19:42.400 of these inside your head. Well, I do want epsides we're out of 252 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:49.160 at an early stage and so m it really will be many years before we 253 00:19:49.200 --> 00:20:00.279 have anything approximating a high bound with neural interface that allows for AI human symbiosis. 254 00:20:02.000 --> 00:20:06.960 UM. For many years, we will just be solving brain injuries and 255 00:20:07.039 --> 00:20:12.079 spinal injuries from probably a decade UM. This is not something that will suddenly 256 00:20:12.480 --> 00:20:21.240 one day it'll will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface. It's going 257 00:20:21.319 --> 00:20:23.920 to be, like said, at least a decade of really just solving um 258 00:20:25.160 --> 00:20:30.240 of brain injuries and spinal injuries. And and really I think you can solve 259 00:20:30.279 --> 00:20:36.759 a very wide range of brain injuries including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep 260 00:20:38.039 --> 00:20:42.880 perchancely schizophrenia, like a lot of things that cause great stress to people, 261 00:20:44.759 --> 00:20:48.880 restoring memory in all the people. If you can pull that off, that 262 00:20:48.039 --> 00:20:53.200 is that that's the APP I will sign up for. I wouldn't please hurry. 263 00:20:53.279 --> 00:21:00.119 Actually yeah, I mean the emails that we get at neural link or 264 00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:03.920 heartbreaking, UM, I mean that they'll send us just fragic you know, 265 00:21:03.960 --> 00:21:07.880 you know where where someone was was sort of in the prime of life and 266 00:21:07.880 --> 00:21:12.240 and and they had an accident on a motorcycle, and and and someone who's 267 00:21:12.279 --> 00:21:18.920 twenty five is you know, it can't even feed themselves and this is something 268 00:21:18.960 --> 00:21:22.119 we could fix. Um. But but you have you have said that AI 269 00:21:22.240 --> 00:21:25.880 is one of the things you're most worried about, and that neuralink may be 270 00:21:26.039 --> 00:21:30.680 one of the ways where we can keep abreast of it. Or yeah, 271 00:21:30.799 --> 00:21:34.920 it's it's there's there's the short term thing, which I think is helpful on 272 00:21:34.920 --> 00:21:40.160 an individual human level UM with injuries. And then the long term thing is 273 00:21:40.680 --> 00:21:51.519 an attempt to address the civilizational risk of AI by bringing bringing UM digital intelligence 274 00:21:51.559 --> 00:21:55.400 and biological intelligence closer together. I mean, if you think of the hell 275 00:21:55.400 --> 00:21:56.960 the brain works today, they're really kind of two layers to the brain. 276 00:21:57.000 --> 00:22:00.920 There's the Olympic system and the quartet seek about the kind of animal brain where 277 00:22:02.119 --> 00:22:06.079 it's kind of like the fun part really must have Twitter operates by the way. 278 00:22:06.319 --> 00:22:08.039 Yeah, I mean we're I think, like to Imban said this, 279 00:22:08.119 --> 00:22:12.319 like we're like we're like somebody's you know, stuck a computer on a monkey. 280 00:22:12.799 --> 00:22:17.160 Um, you know, so we're like, if you gave a monkey 281 00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:19.160 a computer, that's our cortex. But we still have a lot of monkey 282 00:22:19.160 --> 00:22:23.359 instincts, right, So which we then try to rationalize it's no, it's 283 00:22:23.359 --> 00:22:26.640 not a monkey instinct. It's something more important than that. But it's often 284 00:22:26.680 --> 00:22:30.240 just really a monkey instinct. We're in this, we're just monkeys with a 285 00:22:30.240 --> 00:22:36.559 computer STU stuck in our brain. Um so um. Even though the cortex 286 00:22:36.640 --> 00:22:40.079 is sort of the smart or the intelligent part of the brain, the thinking 287 00:22:40.119 --> 00:22:44.119 part of the brain. UM, people are quite I've not yet met anyone 288 00:22:44.160 --> 00:22:47.599 who wants to delete the olympic system or their cortex. They're quite happy having 289 00:22:47.640 --> 00:22:52.559 both. Everyone wants both parts of their brain and um. And people really 290 00:22:52.599 --> 00:22:56.440 want their phones and their computers, which are really the tertiary the third part 291 00:22:56.519 --> 00:23:00.680 of of of your intelligence. It's just that it's it's like said that it's 292 00:23:00.640 --> 00:23:07.559 band with the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow. Um. 293 00:23:07.599 --> 00:23:11.000 And it's just a very tiny straw to those tertiary layer. And we want 294 00:23:11.039 --> 00:23:15.759 to make that tiny straw a big highway. UM. And I'm definitely not 295 00:23:15.799 --> 00:23:21.160 saying that this is going to solve everything, or this is you know, 296 00:23:21.680 --> 00:23:26.039 it's the only thing. It's it's it's something that that that might be helpful. 297 00:23:26.279 --> 00:23:29.720 Um. And And in worst case scenario, I think we solve some 298 00:23:29.799 --> 00:23:33.160 important brain injury spinal injury issues, and that's still a great outcome. Right 299 00:23:33.279 --> 00:23:37.839 best case scenario, we may discover new human possibility telepathy you've spoken of in 300 00:23:37.880 --> 00:23:41.880 a stal collection with With With with the loved One. You know, full 301 00:23:41.920 --> 00:23:48.599 memory UM and and much faster thought process than maybe all these things. It's 302 00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:56.480 very cool if AI were to take down Earth. We need a plan. 303 00:23:56.599 --> 00:24:02.599 B Let's let's shift to space. We spoke last up to about reusability, 304 00:24:02.640 --> 00:24:06.599 and you're just demonstrated that spectacular for the first time. Since then, you've 305 00:24:06.599 --> 00:24:12.559 gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship UM, which kind of changes 306 00:24:12.599 --> 00:24:17.000 the rules of the game in spectacular ways. Tell Us, tell us about 307 00:24:17.039 --> 00:24:22.519 Starship. Yes, Starship is extremely fundamental. So the holy grail of of 308 00:24:23.079 --> 00:24:29.119 rocketry or space transport is full and rapid reusability. This has never been achieved. 309 00:24:29.119 --> 00:24:33.200 The closest that UM anything has come as our Falcon Rand rocket, where 310 00:24:33.240 --> 00:24:37.400 we are able to recover the prey the first stage the boost age, which 311 00:24:37.440 --> 00:24:42.400 is probably about sixty percent of the cast of the vehicle, um of the 312 00:24:42.400 --> 00:24:48.440 whole launch maybe seventy percent, and we've now done that over one hundred times. 313 00:24:48.559 --> 00:24:56.240 So with Starship we will be recovering the entire thing. That's or at 314 00:24:56.279 --> 00:25:00.039 least that's the goal, right um. And and and more of recovering it 315 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:04.519 in such a way that it can be immediately reflown. Whereas with Falconline we 316 00:25:04.559 --> 00:25:08.599 still need to do some amount of refurbishment to the brewster and to the firing 317 00:25:08.640 --> 00:25:15.960 one nose cone so um. But with Starship, the design goal is immediate 318 00:25:15.960 --> 00:25:21.400 reflight, right, So you just you're just refill propellant and go again. 319 00:25:22.119 --> 00:25:27.319 And the this is gigantic, It just just as it would be in any 320 00:25:27.319 --> 00:25:33.160 other mode of transporting. And it's and the main design is and is to 321 00:25:33.400 --> 00:25:37.039 basically take what one hundred plus people at a time, plus a bunch of 322 00:25:38.079 --> 00:25:41.839 things that they need to Mars. So talk first of all, talk talk 323 00:25:41.839 --> 00:25:48.200 about that piece. What what is your latest timeline? One for the first 324 00:25:48.359 --> 00:25:52.559 time a starship goes to Mars, presumely without people but just equipment. Two 325 00:25:52.640 --> 00:25:57.920 with people, three the sort of okay, one hundred people at a time, 326 00:25:59.160 --> 00:26:03.279 let's let's go. Sure we and I just put the cost thing into 327 00:26:03.279 --> 00:26:10.559 perspective. Um. The the cost of the expected cost of Starship putting one 328 00:26:10.640 --> 00:26:15.720 hundred tons into orbit UM is significantly less than what UM it would have cost, 329 00:26:17.319 --> 00:26:21.119 or what it did cost to put out our tiny Falcon one rocket into 330 00:26:21.279 --> 00:26:26.240 orbit. UM. Just as the cost of flying a seven forty seven around 331 00:26:26.240 --> 00:26:30.559 the world is less than the cost of a small airplane, you know, 332 00:26:30.839 --> 00:26:36.519 a smaller plant that was thrown away. UM. So it's really pretty mind 333 00:26:36.519 --> 00:26:40.799 boggling UM that that the giant thing costs less, way less than the small 334 00:26:40.839 --> 00:26:47.240 thing. So it doesn't use sort of exotic propellants or things that are difficult 335 00:26:47.279 --> 00:26:53.160 to obtain on Mars. UM. It uses methane's fuel and it's primarily auctions. 336 00:26:53.200 --> 00:26:59.200 It's sort of roughly seventy seven seventy eight percent oxygen by weight UM. 337 00:26:59.319 --> 00:27:03.599 And Mars has a AR two atmosphere and has water ice which is ER two 338 00:27:03.599 --> 00:27:06.480 plus H two. Oh, so you can make thh four methane and O 339 00:27:06.640 --> 00:27:08.759 two oxygen on Mars. There's manly. One of the first task on Mars 340 00:27:08.799 --> 00:27:12.519 will be to create, yes, a fuel plant that can create the fuel 341 00:27:12.559 --> 00:27:18.839 for the return trips of many starships. Yes, and actually it's mostly gonna 342 00:27:18.839 --> 00:27:23.039 an oxygen plant. But but it's it's because it's um. It's it's cool, 343 00:27:23.079 --> 00:27:26.680 it's seventy eight percent oxygen twenty two percent fuel. UM. But but 344 00:27:26.680 --> 00:27:30.480 but the fuel is a simple fuel that is easy to create on Mars Um 345 00:27:30.559 --> 00:27:36.319 and and and many other parts of the Solar systems. So basically um and 346 00:27:36.359 --> 00:27:41.799 it's all propulsive landing, no parachutes, UM, nothing's thrown away. UH 347 00:27:42.039 --> 00:27:48.960 has a heat shield that's capable of entering on Earth or Mars. Um. 348 00:27:48.359 --> 00:27:52.599 We could even potentially go to Venus. But it's not you don't want to 349 00:27:52.599 --> 00:27:59.119 go there. It's Venus is hell almost literally, Um, but you you 350 00:27:59.160 --> 00:28:03.839 could. It's a generalize a method of transport to to anywhere in the Solar 351 00:28:03.839 --> 00:28:07.039 System because the point which you have a pellent deep on Mars, you can 352 00:28:07.039 --> 00:28:11.799 then travel to the asteroid belt and to the moons of Jupiter and then to 353 00:28:11.880 --> 00:28:15.920 the Saturn and ultimately anywhere in the Solar system. Right, but your man 354 00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:22.680 for your main for focus and SpaceX's main focus is still Mars. Like that 355 00:28:22.680 --> 00:28:25.599 that is that is the that is the mission, that is that is where 356 00:28:25.680 --> 00:28:30.079 most of the effort will go. Yeah, or you are you actually imagining 357 00:28:30.079 --> 00:28:37.200 a much broader array of uses even in the coming you know, the first 358 00:28:37.359 --> 00:28:41.920 decade or so of use is of this where we could go, for example, 359 00:28:41.960 --> 00:28:47.279 of the places and Solar System to explore. Perhaps NASA wants to use 360 00:28:47.319 --> 00:28:51.039 the rocket for that reason. Yeah, now so, now so it is 361 00:28:51.039 --> 00:28:55.839 planning to use a starship to return to the Moon, to return people to 362 00:28:55.839 --> 00:29:00.920 the Moon. Um and so we're very honored that NASA has shown us to 363 00:29:00.920 --> 00:29:07.880 do this. Um so. But I'm saying is it is a generalized it's 364 00:29:07.920 --> 00:29:15.519 a it's a general solution to getting anywhere in the Greater Solar System. It's 365 00:29:15.559 --> 00:29:18.880 not suitable for going to another star system, but it is a general solution 366 00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:22.640 for transport anywhere in the in the Solar System. Before it can do any 367 00:29:22.680 --> 00:29:25.559 of that, it's got to demonstrate it can get into orbit, you know, 368 00:29:25.599 --> 00:29:30.000 around what what's what's what's what's what's your latest device on the on the 369 00:29:30.039 --> 00:29:33.799 timeline for that, it's looking promising for us to have an orbital launch attempt 370 00:29:34.640 --> 00:29:42.640 in in a few months UM. So we're actually integrating the we'll be integrating 371 00:29:42.640 --> 00:29:48.480 the engines into the booster for the first orbital flight starting in about a week 372 00:29:48.559 --> 00:29:56.039 or two UM and the launch complex itself is ready to go. So, 373 00:29:57.079 --> 00:30:03.440 assuming we get regulatory approval, I think we could have a an orbital launch 374 00:30:03.480 --> 00:30:07.960 attempt within a few months, and a radical new technology like this, presumably 375 00:30:07.960 --> 00:30:11.200 there is real risk on those early sept that yeah, yeah, yeah, 376 00:30:11.240 --> 00:30:15.319 Like I mean, the joke I make all the time is that excitement is 377 00:30:15.319 --> 00:30:19.119 guaranteed. Success is not guaranteed, but excitement certainly is. But the last 378 00:30:19.160 --> 00:30:25.839 less on your timeline, you've slightly put back the expected date to put the 379 00:30:25.839 --> 00:30:30.039 first human on Mars till twenty twenty nine. I want to say, yeah, 380 00:30:30.079 --> 00:30:33.400 I mean, so, let's see, I mean, we are we 381 00:30:33.440 --> 00:30:37.920 have built a production system for starships, so we're making a lot of ships 382 00:30:37.920 --> 00:30:41.279 and boosters. How many of your planning to make? Actually, well, 383 00:30:41.319 --> 00:30:49.240 we're currently expecting to make a booster and a ship roughly every well, initially 384 00:30:49.359 --> 00:30:52.799 roughly every couple of months, and hopefully by by the end this year, 385 00:30:53.119 --> 00:30:56.799 one every month. So it's it's giant rockets, but a lot and a 386 00:30:56.799 --> 00:30:59.720 lot of them. Just in terms of talking in terms of rough orders of 387 00:30:59.759 --> 00:31:03.200 man. In order to create a self sustaining city on Mars, I think 388 00:31:03.279 --> 00:31:07.319 that you will need something on the order of a thousand ships, and we 389 00:31:07.359 --> 00:31:14.480 just need we just need a helen of Sparta. I guess on the Mars 390 00:31:15.680 --> 00:31:18.839 this is not in most people's heads. The planet that launched a thousand ships. 391 00:31:19.519 --> 00:31:22.119 That's that's nice, But this is not in most people's heads, this 392 00:31:22.200 --> 00:31:26.279 picture that you have in your mind that so there's there's there's basically a two 393 00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:30.039 year window. You can only really fly to Mars conveniently every two years. 394 00:31:30.279 --> 00:31:33.720 Yes, you are still you were picturing that during during the twenty thirties, 395 00:31:34.119 --> 00:31:40.079 every couple of years, something like a thousand starships take off, each containing 396 00:31:40.079 --> 00:31:45.279 one hundred or more people. I mean that that picture is just completely mind 397 00:31:45.279 --> 00:31:51.640 blowing to me, that that sense of this armada of humans going Battlestar Glad 398 00:31:51.680 --> 00:31:55.359 together fleet departs, and you think that that it can basically be funded by 399 00:31:55.400 --> 00:31:59.920 people spending maybe a couple hundred grand on a ticket to to Mars. Is 400 00:32:00.160 --> 00:32:04.000 is that price about where where it has been? Well? I think it 401 00:32:04.400 --> 00:32:07.960 say like, what's what's what's required in order to get enough people and enough 402 00:32:07.960 --> 00:32:14.279 cargo to Mars to build a self sustaining city UM. And it's where you 403 00:32:14.319 --> 00:32:17.839 have an intersection of sets of people who want to go, because I think 404 00:32:17.839 --> 00:32:23.359 only a small percentage of humanity will want to go UM and can afford to 405 00:32:23.400 --> 00:32:29.240 go or get sponsorship in some manner that intersection of sets I think needs to 406 00:32:29.279 --> 00:32:32.319 be a million people or something like that. Um, and so it's what 407 00:32:32.319 --> 00:32:37.519 what what can a million people afford or get sponsorship for or because I think 408 00:32:37.559 --> 00:32:40.400 governments will also pay for it, and um, people can take out loans 409 00:32:40.440 --> 00:32:45.039 and a. But I think at the point in which you say, okay, 410 00:32:45.039 --> 00:32:50.119 okay, like if if moving to Mars costs are fragments, take um, 411 00:32:50.839 --> 00:32:52.960 one hundred thousand dollars, then I think, um, you know, 412 00:32:53.000 --> 00:32:58.960 almost anyone can can work and save up and and and eventually have one hundred 413 00:32:58.960 --> 00:33:00.519 thousand dollars and be able to go to Mars if they want. We want 414 00:33:00.519 --> 00:33:05.680 to make it available to anyone who wants to go. Yeah, So it 415 00:33:06.359 --> 00:33:09.440 and and very important. Tom says that Mars, especially in the beginning, 416 00:33:09.440 --> 00:33:15.799 will not be luxurious. It will be dangerous, cramped, difficult, hard 417 00:33:15.839 --> 00:33:20.599 work. It's kind of like that Shackleton app for going to the Antarctic, 418 00:33:21.119 --> 00:33:23.240 which I think is actually not real bit but it sounds real and it's cool. 419 00:33:24.200 --> 00:33:28.400 It's sort of like the sales pitch we're going to Mars is it's it's 420 00:33:28.720 --> 00:33:35.440 it's dangerous, it's cramped. You might not make it back. It's difficult, 421 00:33:35.480 --> 00:33:38.240 it's hard work. That's the sales pitch. Right, you will make 422 00:33:38.319 --> 00:33:43.559 history. Bet it'll be glorious. Right. Also, on that kind of 423 00:33:43.640 --> 00:33:46.240 launch rate you're talking about, over two decades, you could get your million 424 00:33:46.279 --> 00:33:51.599 people to to Mars. Essentially, whose city is it? Is it NASAs 425 00:33:51.599 --> 00:33:57.559 City? Is it Space exus? It's the people of Marsas City. The 426 00:33:57.599 --> 00:34:00.279 reason for this, I mean I actually like what we feel like, well, 427 00:34:00.279 --> 00:34:02.920 why why? Why do this thing? It's I think this is important 428 00:34:04.599 --> 00:34:09.079 for Max mice and the probable lifespan if of humanity or consciousness, human civilization 429 00:34:09.320 --> 00:34:15.480 could come to an end for external reasons like giant meteor or super volcanoes, 430 00:34:15.679 --> 00:34:23.800 or extreme climate change or World War three, or you know, anyone of 431 00:34:23.840 --> 00:34:30.360 a number of reasons. Um and and but the probable lifespan of of civilizational 432 00:34:30.360 --> 00:34:35.119 consciousness as we know it, um, which we should really view as this 433 00:34:35.320 --> 00:34:39.000 very delicate thing, like a small candle in a vast darkness. That's that's 434 00:34:39.039 --> 00:34:44.199 caught that that is what appears to be the case. Um. We're in 435 00:34:44.239 --> 00:34:49.719 this vast darkness of space. Um, and there's this little candle of consciousness 436 00:34:50.719 --> 00:34:55.320 that's only really come about after four and a half billion years and it could 437 00:34:55.360 --> 00:34:58.679 just go out. I think that's powerful and I think I think a lot 438 00:34:58.719 --> 00:35:01.519 of people will be inspired about that vision. And the reason so the reason 439 00:35:01.559 --> 00:35:05.519 you need the million people is because they has to be enough people that to 440 00:35:05.719 --> 00:35:12.199 do everything that you need to survived. It's really like the critical threshold is 441 00:35:12.880 --> 00:35:16.480 um, if the ships from Earth stopped coming for any reason? Right? 442 00:35:16.920 --> 00:35:22.400 Um? Does it? Does the Mars city die out or not? Right? 443 00:35:22.440 --> 00:35:25.840 And and so we have to pass that. That's you know, people 444 00:35:25.880 --> 00:35:30.079 talk about like these sort of the great filters, the things that perhaps um, 445 00:35:30.480 --> 00:35:32.960 you know, we talk about the Fermi paradox and where are the aliens 446 00:35:32.960 --> 00:35:37.000 and like, well, maybe the aliens didn't There is various great filters that 447 00:35:37.039 --> 00:35:42.440 the aliens didn't pass, and and so they eventually just cease to exist. 448 00:35:42.840 --> 00:35:46.079 And one of the great filters is becoming a multiplanet species. So we want 449 00:35:46.079 --> 00:35:52.360 to pass that filter. Um. And And I'll be long dead before this 450 00:35:52.480 --> 00:35:57.519 is, you know, a real real thing, before before it happens. 451 00:35:57.519 --> 00:36:01.079 But I'd like I'd like to at least see us make a great progress in 452 00:36:01.119 --> 00:36:06.320 this direction, given how tortured the Earth is right now, how much we're 453 00:36:06.800 --> 00:36:13.000 beating each other up. Shouldn't there be discussions going on with everyone who is 454 00:36:13.039 --> 00:36:19.800 dreaming about Mars to try to say, we've got a once in a civilization's 455 00:36:19.960 --> 00:36:23.960 chance to make some new rules here is that it should someone be trying to 456 00:36:24.039 --> 00:36:29.400 lead those discussions to figure out what it means for this to be the people 457 00:36:29.440 --> 00:36:31.599 of Mars's city. Well, I think ultimately this will be up to the 458 00:36:31.639 --> 00:36:38.119 people of Mars to decide what how they want to rethink society. Yeah, 459 00:36:38.119 --> 00:36:44.760 there's there's certainly a risk there, and hopefully the people of Mars will be 460 00:36:45.159 --> 00:36:50.440 more enlightened and will not afflight amongst each other too much. I mean, 461 00:36:50.480 --> 00:36:54.440 I have some recommendations, but which people of Mars may choose to listen to 462 00:36:54.599 --> 00:36:58.800 or not. And I would advocate for more of a direct democracy. You're 463 00:36:58.800 --> 00:37:01.599 not a representative of democracy seeum and laws that are short enough for people to 464 00:37:01.679 --> 00:37:08.159 understand um and where it is harder to create laws than to get rid of 465 00:37:08.159 --> 00:37:12.559 them. Coming back a bit nearer term, I'd love you to just talk 466 00:37:12.559 --> 00:37:19.079 a bit about some of the other possibility space that's Starship seems to have created. 467 00:37:19.440 --> 00:37:22.559 So given given suddenly we've got this ability to move one hundred tons plus 468 00:37:22.559 --> 00:37:27.519 into orbit. Yes, so we've just spent We've just launched the James Webb 469 00:37:27.639 --> 00:37:31.880 telescope, which is an incredible thing. It's unbelievable, happens exiit piece of 470 00:37:31.880 --> 00:37:36.079 technology, exquisite piece of technology. But people spent two years trying to figure 471 00:37:36.079 --> 00:37:37.960 out how to fold up this thing. It's a three ton it's a three 472 00:37:38.000 --> 00:37:40.679 ton telescope. We can make it a lot easier if you've got more volume 473 00:37:40.719 --> 00:37:45.320 and mass. Well, so let's let's ask a different question, which is 474 00:37:45.360 --> 00:37:52.239 what what what? How much more powerful a telescope could someone design based on 475 00:37:52.400 --> 00:37:58.239 using Starship for example? I mean roughly, i't it's probably in order of 476 00:37:58.280 --> 00:38:01.599 magnitude, more resolution if you've got a hundred tons and a thousand cubic leaders 477 00:38:01.719 --> 00:38:07.079 volume, which is roughly what we have. And what about other explorations through 478 00:38:07.159 --> 00:38:10.679 the Solar system. I mean, I'm you know, Europa, well, 479 00:38:10.719 --> 00:38:14.719 Europa, good question, Mark, Right. So there's an ocean there, 480 00:38:14.800 --> 00:38:16.719 right, and what you really want to do is to drop a submarine into 481 00:38:16.719 --> 00:38:22.559 the Maybe there's like some squid civilization under the cephalopod civilization under the ice of 482 00:38:22.599 --> 00:38:24.679 Europe that would be pretty interesting. I mean, you know, if you 483 00:38:24.679 --> 00:38:30.280 could take a submarine to Europa and we see pictures of this thing being devoured 484 00:38:30.280 --> 00:38:34.400 by a squid. That will honestly be the happiest moment of my life. 485 00:38:34.519 --> 00:38:37.679 Very well, yeah, that would be. What what are the possibilities are 486 00:38:37.760 --> 00:38:40.960 out there? Like? It feels like if you're going to create a thousand 487 00:38:42.000 --> 00:38:45.800 of these things, they can only fly to Mars every two years, what 488 00:38:45.880 --> 00:38:50.119 are they doing the rest of the time. It feels like there's this this 489 00:38:50.960 --> 00:38:54.800 explosion of possibility that I don't think people are really thinking about. I mean, 490 00:38:54.840 --> 00:38:57.679 I don't know if we've certainly got a long way to go, has 491 00:38:57.719 --> 00:39:00.440 you alluded to earlier, We've we still have to get to orbit, and 492 00:39:00.760 --> 00:39:06.559 then after we get to orbit, we have to um really prove out and 493 00:39:06.639 --> 00:39:15.280 refine full and rapid reusability. That will take a moment um and but but 494 00:39:15.440 --> 00:39:20.440 I do think we will solve this. I am I highly confident we will 495 00:39:20.480 --> 00:39:22.199 solve this. At this point, do you have a wake up with the 496 00:39:22.199 --> 00:39:28.480 fear that there's going to be this Hindenburg moment for SpaceX where we've had many 497 00:39:28.559 --> 00:39:31.400 Hindenburg Well, we've we've never had Hindenburg moments with people, which is very 498 00:39:31.400 --> 00:39:36.719 important big difference. We've blown up quite a few rockets, so there's we 499 00:39:36.760 --> 00:39:39.719 have a there's a whole compilation online that we've put together and others put together. 500 00:39:40.480 --> 00:39:44.360 It's showing rockets are hard. Um. I mean, the sure amount 501 00:39:44.360 --> 00:39:47.880 of energy going through rockets boggles the mind. So yeah, you know, 502 00:39:49.079 --> 00:39:52.400 getting out of both gravity well as difficult. We have a strong gravity and 503 00:39:52.440 --> 00:39:59.519 a thick atmosphere, and and Mars which is less than forty percent. It's 504 00:39:59.519 --> 00:40:05.599 like a of both gravity and has athan atmosphere. The ship alone can go 505 00:40:05.679 --> 00:40:07.960 all the way from the surface of Mars to the surface of Earth, whereas 506 00:40:08.119 --> 00:40:15.599 getting two Mars requires a giant booster and orbital refilling soon. So I think 507 00:40:15.639 --> 00:40:21.400 more about this incredible array of things that you're involved with. I keep seeing 508 00:40:21.960 --> 00:40:27.840 these synergies, to use a horrible word, but between them. You know, 509 00:40:27.880 --> 00:40:31.119 for example, the robots you're building from Tesla could possibly be pretty handy 510 00:40:31.360 --> 00:40:36.679 on Mars doing some of the dangerous work and so forth. I mean, 511 00:40:36.920 --> 00:40:39.719 maybe there's a scenario where you're city on Mars doesn't need a million people, 512 00:40:39.719 --> 00:40:44.719 it needs half a million people and half a million robots, And that's a 513 00:40:44.760 --> 00:40:49.000 possibility. Maybe the boring company could play a role helping create some of the 514 00:40:49.119 --> 00:40:55.039 subterranean dwelling spaces that you might need. Yeah, back on planet Earth, 515 00:40:55.599 --> 00:41:01.679 it seems like a partnership between Boring Company and Tesla could offer an unbelievable deal 516 00:41:01.760 --> 00:41:07.119 to a city to say we will create few a three D network of tannels 517 00:41:07.159 --> 00:41:13.559 populated by robotaxis. Yeah, that will offer fast, low cost transport to 518 00:41:13.800 --> 00:41:16.159 anyone. You know, full self driving mail may not be done this year 519 00:41:16.599 --> 00:41:21.559 and then, and in some cities like someone like Mumbai, I suspect won't 520 00:41:21.559 --> 00:41:25.320 be done for a decade, are more charging than others. But today today, 521 00:41:25.360 --> 00:41:30.000 with what you've got, you could put a three D network of tannels 522 00:41:30.079 --> 00:41:34.360 under there. It's just an internel. That's the sold problem exactly. Full 523 00:41:34.400 --> 00:41:37.039 self driving is itself problems. So so to me, there's there's an amazing 524 00:41:37.039 --> 00:41:43.239 synergy there. Um you're with with with Starship. You know quinchotwell talked about 525 00:41:43.639 --> 00:41:46.880 by twenty twenty eight having from city to city, you know, transport on 526 00:41:46.920 --> 00:41:53.320 planet This is a real possibility. It's a Yeah, the fastest way to 527 00:41:53.360 --> 00:41:58.159 get from one place to another it's a long distance is a rocket. It's 528 00:41:58.960 --> 00:42:01.599 it's basically I CBA, right, with the but it has to learn learning, 529 00:42:01.599 --> 00:42:06.559 delete new because it's a nice CBM, it has to land probably offshore, 530 00:42:06.960 --> 00:42:13.599 yes, lou So, So why not have a tunnel that then connects 531 00:42:13.599 --> 00:42:17.519 to the city and neural Link. I mean, if you're going to go 532 00:42:17.559 --> 00:42:22.119 to Mars having a telepathic connection with loved ones back home, even if there's 533 00:42:22.119 --> 00:42:27.239 a time delay, I mean, if these are not intended to be connected 534 00:42:27.719 --> 00:42:30.559 by the way they just but there should certainly could be some synergies. Yeah, 535 00:42:30.920 --> 00:42:36.199 surely there is a growing argument that you should actually put all these things 536 00:42:36.199 --> 00:42:43.239 together into one company and just just have a company devoted to creating a future 537 00:42:43.280 --> 00:42:46.239 that's exciting and let a thousand flowers bloom. Have you have you been thinking 538 00:42:46.280 --> 00:42:52.679 about that? I mean it is tricky because Tellsla's a publicly traded company, 539 00:42:52.840 --> 00:42:59.519 and the investor base of Tesla and SpaceX, and certainly Boring Company and neural 540 00:42:59.519 --> 00:43:05.880 Link are are quite different company our tiny companies just right, the audience may 541 00:43:06.440 --> 00:43:09.840 yeah, it tells us got one hundred and ten thousand people. SpaceX I 542 00:43:09.880 --> 00:43:15.480 think is around twelve thousand people. Boring Company and neural Link are both under 543 00:43:15.480 --> 00:43:21.119 two hundred people. So there are little, little, tiny companies, but 544 00:43:21.199 --> 00:43:22.880 they will probably get bigger in the future. They will get bigger in the 545 00:43:22.880 --> 00:43:30.280 future. It's not that easy to sort of combine these things. Traditionally, 546 00:43:30.280 --> 00:43:32.800 you've said that for SpaceX especially, you don't you wouldn't want to public because 547 00:43:32.840 --> 00:43:38.480 public investors wouldn't support the craziness of the idea of going to Mars or whatever, 548 00:43:38.559 --> 00:43:45.360 and you want to making life multiplanetaries is outside of the normal time horizon 549 00:43:45.480 --> 00:43:52.039 of Wall Street analysts say the least, I think something's changed, though. 550 00:43:52.760 --> 00:43:55.480 What's changed is that Tesla is now so powerful and so big and throws off 551 00:43:55.519 --> 00:44:01.599 so much cash that you actually could connect the dots here, just tell the 552 00:44:01.599 --> 00:44:07.760 public that X billion dollars or whatever your number is, will be diverted to 553 00:44:07.800 --> 00:44:13.199 the Mars mission. I suspect you'd have massive interest in that company, and 554 00:44:13.199 --> 00:44:16.800 it might. It might unlock a lot more possibility for you. Now, 555 00:44:17.039 --> 00:44:22.400 I mean, I would like to give the public access to ownership of SpaceX, 556 00:44:22.920 --> 00:44:28.599 But I mean the thing that, like the overhead associated with a polar 557 00:44:28.679 --> 00:44:36.400 company is high, so I mean it's a poll company. You're just constantly 558 00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:42.960 sued. It does occupy like a fair butt of you know, time and 559 00:44:43.000 --> 00:44:45.880 effort to deal with these things, right, but you still only have one 560 00:44:46.639 --> 00:44:51.199 public company. It would be bigger and have more things going on, but 561 00:44:51.320 --> 00:44:53.599 instead of being on four boards, you'd be on one. I'm actually not 562 00:44:53.639 --> 00:44:58.639 even on the neural link of warring company boards. Well yeah, and I 563 00:44:59.239 --> 00:45:01.880 don't really atta and the space x board meetings, we only have two a 564 00:45:01.960 --> 00:45:06.320 year, and I just stopped buying chat for an hour. Um, So 565 00:45:07.800 --> 00:45:10.880 the boarder overhead for a public company is much higher, right. I think 566 00:45:10.880 --> 00:45:14.880 some investors probably worry about how your time is being split, and they would 567 00:45:14.920 --> 00:45:17.679 be they might be excited by you know that, that's anyway I am. 568 00:45:19.199 --> 00:45:21.639 I just I just work up the other day. I think I think it 569 00:45:21.760 --> 00:45:24.760 just there are so many ways in which these things connect, and and you 570 00:45:24.800 --> 00:45:29.760 know that just the note, the simplicity of that mission of building a future 571 00:45:30.000 --> 00:45:35.079 that is worth getting excited about might might appeal to um an awful lot of 572 00:45:35.079 --> 00:45:42.079 people. Um elon, you are reported by Forbes and everyone else's as now 573 00:45:42.280 --> 00:45:45.480 you know the worlds, which is person that's not a sovereign, you know, 574 00:45:45.480 --> 00:45:50.679 I think it's fair to say that if somebody is like the killing or 575 00:45:50.760 --> 00:45:54.599 the facto king of a country, they're wealthier than I am. So, 576 00:45:54.760 --> 00:45:58.880 but it's just harder to measure. But what people do so three hundred million 577 00:45:58.920 --> 00:46:05.039 dollars, I mean, your your net worth on any given day is rising 578 00:46:05.119 --> 00:46:09.280 or fall late by several billion dollars. How say, yeah, I mean 579 00:46:09.280 --> 00:46:12.719 does that? How do you? How do you handle that? Psychologically? 580 00:46:13.000 --> 00:46:15.039 There aren't many people in the world who have to even think about that. 581 00:46:15.440 --> 00:46:20.280 I actually don't think about that too much. But the the thing that is 582 00:46:20.280 --> 00:46:27.159 actually more more difficult and that does make sleeping difficult, is that, you 583 00:46:27.239 --> 00:46:35.760 know, every good hour or even minute of thinking about TISLA and SpaceX has 584 00:46:35.800 --> 00:46:38.760 such a big effect on the company that I really try to work as as 585 00:46:38.840 --> 00:46:44.320 much as possible, you know, to to the edge of sanity, basically, 586 00:46:45.119 --> 00:46:51.719 because the tela's getting to the point where probably we'll get to the point 587 00:46:51.800 --> 00:46:57.760 later this year where every good, every high quality minute of thinking, um 588 00:46:58.280 --> 00:47:05.360 is a million dollars to impact on Tesla. So, which is insane? 589 00:47:05.599 --> 00:47:10.800 Um so UM? I mean the basic you know, if if Tesla's doing 590 00:47:12.920 --> 00:47:15.920 you know of a sort of two billion dollars a week, let's say in 591 00:47:15.960 --> 00:47:21.480 revenue, is sort of three hundred million dollars a day, seven days a 592 00:47:21.519 --> 00:47:27.760 week. You know, it's if you can change that by five percent in 593 00:47:27.840 --> 00:47:31.880 an hour's brainstorm, that that those those ant be valuable. That's a pretty 594 00:47:31.920 --> 00:47:37.199 valuable hour. I mean there are many many instances where a half hour meeting 595 00:47:37.320 --> 00:47:43.800 I was able to improve the finacial account of the company by one hundred million 596 00:47:43.880 --> 00:47:46.920 dollars in a half hour meeting. There are many other people out there who 597 00:47:46.960 --> 00:47:53.760 who who can't stand this world of billionaires like they are hugely offended by the 598 00:47:53.840 --> 00:48:00.800 notion that's an individual can have the same wealth as as say billion of or 599 00:48:00.840 --> 00:48:05.639 more of the world's porous people if they examine sort of the sort of I 600 00:48:05.679 --> 00:48:08.079 think there's some axiomatic flows, um, that that are leading to them to 601 00:48:08.719 --> 00:48:14.039 that conclusion. If for sure, it would be very problematic if I was 602 00:48:14.119 --> 00:48:19.519 consuming you know, billions of dollars a year in personal consumption. But that 603 00:48:19.679 --> 00:48:21.840 is not the case. Um. In fact, I don't even own a 604 00:48:21.880 --> 00:48:25.760 home right now. I'm literally staying at friends places. I if I travel 605 00:48:25.840 --> 00:48:30.519 to the Bay Area, which where most subtails and engineering is, I stayed 606 00:48:30.519 --> 00:48:35.079 in my I basically rotate through friends spare bedrooms. Um, I don't have 607 00:48:35.119 --> 00:48:39.360 a yacht. I really don't take vacations. So, UM, it's not. 608 00:48:39.480 --> 00:48:45.119 It's not as though there's um that that my personal consumption is high with. 609 00:48:45.280 --> 00:48:45.880 I mean, the one exception is a plane. But if I don't 610 00:48:45.960 --> 00:48:51.239 use the plane, then I have less hours to work. So UM, 611 00:48:51.280 --> 00:48:55.400 I mean I personally think you have shown that you are mostly driven by really 612 00:48:55.559 --> 00:48:59.880 quite a deep set some moral purpose, Like you've tried your your your your 613 00:49:00.039 --> 00:49:07.519 attempts to solve the climate problem have been as powerful as anyone else on the 614 00:49:07.519 --> 00:49:09.880 planet that I'm aware of, And I actually can't can't understand personally. I 615 00:49:09.920 --> 00:49:14.880 can't understand the fact that you get all this criticism from the left about oh 616 00:49:14.880 --> 00:49:19.480 my god, he's so rich, that's disgusting, when when climate is their 617 00:49:19.519 --> 00:49:22.480 issue. Um, philanthropy is is a topic that some people go to. 618 00:49:22.559 --> 00:49:25.599 Philanthropy is a hard topic, like how how do you think about that? 619 00:49:27.320 --> 00:49:30.599 Um? I think if you if you care about the reality of goodness instead 620 00:49:30.599 --> 00:49:35.800 of the perception of it, philanthropy is extremely difficult. Um. SpaceX, 621 00:49:35.920 --> 00:49:39.880 Tesla neural linked boring company are philanthropy. If you say philanthropy is love of 622 00:49:39.960 --> 00:49:47.559 humanity, they are philanthropy. There. Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy. This 623 00:49:49.000 --> 00:49:54.320 is a love of full entropy. SpaceX is trying to ensure the long term 624 00:49:54.400 --> 00:50:00.159 survival of humanity with multiplied species. This is love of humanity. Um, 625 00:50:00.280 --> 00:50:07.679 you know, neural Link is to help solve rain, injuries and existential whisk 626 00:50:07.719 --> 00:50:10.280 with ai love of humanity. Boring Company is trying to solve traffic, which 627 00:50:10.320 --> 00:50:15.679 is health most people. And that also it's not a humanity. It's how 628 00:50:16.239 --> 00:50:23.559 how upsetting is it to you to hear this constant drum beat of billionaires? 629 00:50:23.599 --> 00:50:27.000 My guard elon musk, Oh, my god, like is that do you 630 00:50:27.159 --> 00:50:29.840 do? You do? You just shrug that offer? Does it? Does 631 00:50:29.840 --> 00:50:34.199 it actually hurt? I mean, at this point, it's water off a 632 00:50:34.280 --> 00:50:37.800 duck's back. You know, I'd like to as we wrap up now, 633 00:50:37.960 --> 00:50:43.800 just pull the camera back and just think you're a father and I have seven 634 00:50:44.159 --> 00:50:46.079 surviving kids, and and well, I mean, I'm trying to say a 635 00:50:46.119 --> 00:50:50.679 good example, because the birth rate on Earth is so low that we're facing 636 00:50:50.679 --> 00:50:57.880 civilizational collapse unless the birth rate returns to a sustainable level. Yeah, You've 637 00:50:57.880 --> 00:51:00.880 talked about this a lot. The depopulation is a big problem and we we 638 00:51:00.440 --> 00:51:05.960 yes, people don't. Understulation is one of the biggest threats of the future 639 00:51:05.960 --> 00:51:07.719 of human civilization. And that is what it's going on right now. How 640 00:51:07.800 --> 00:51:12.559 what what drives you on a day to day basis to do what you do? 641 00:51:13.480 --> 00:51:16.239 I guess like I really want to make sure that there is a good 642 00:51:16.239 --> 00:51:22.800 future for humanity and that we're on a path to understanding the nature of the 643 00:51:22.880 --> 00:51:27.639 universe, the meaning of life. Why are we here? How do we 644 00:51:27.679 --> 00:51:35.400 get here? And in order to understand the nature of the universe and all 645 00:51:35.440 --> 00:51:43.360 these fundamental questions, we must expand the scope and scale of consciousness. Certainly 646 00:51:43.440 --> 00:51:45.679 it must not diminish or go out. We certainly we weren't understand this. 647 00:51:45.719 --> 00:51:50.760 So I always say, I'm motivated by curiosity more than anything, UM, 648 00:51:50.960 --> 00:51:57.719 and just desire to think about the future and not be sad. You know, 649 00:51:57.880 --> 00:52:02.519 and and are you? Are you not sad? I'm sometimes sad, 650 00:52:02.559 --> 00:52:08.800 but mostly I'm I'm I mean not feeling I guess relatively optimistic about the future 651 00:52:08.880 --> 00:52:14.239 these days. UM, there are certainly, UM, some big risks that 652 00:52:14.320 --> 00:52:19.320 humanity faces. I think that the population collapse is a really big deal that 653 00:52:19.800 --> 00:52:24.280 I wish more people would would think about, UM, because the birth rate 654 00:52:24.400 --> 00:52:30.440 is far below what it's needed to sustain civilization as current at its current level. 655 00:52:30.599 --> 00:52:37.639 And ye know, there's obviously we need to take action on climate sustainability, 656 00:52:37.639 --> 00:52:43.199 which is being done UM. And we need to secure the future of 657 00:52:43.199 --> 00:52:47.519 consciousness by being a multiplane of species. UM. We need to address the 658 00:52:47.599 --> 00:52:52.280 Essentially, it's important to take whatever actions we can think of to address the 659 00:52:52.320 --> 00:52:57.880 existential risks that affect the future of consciousness. There's there's a whole generation coming 660 00:52:57.880 --> 00:53:02.000 through who seem really sad about the future. What would you say to them, 661 00:53:02.280 --> 00:53:05.239 Well, I think if you want the future to be good, you 662 00:53:05.320 --> 00:53:13.440 must make it so take action to make it good and it will be Yellen, 663 00:53:13.559 --> 00:53:16.280 thank you for all this time. That is a beautiful place to end. 664 00:53:16.360 --> 00:53:19.719 Thanks for all that you're doing. You're welcome.